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Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.

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If you are new, we always start this show by

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being transparent. And the weekend was not great for me, Rob.

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You know, my plays have been were perfect throughout week six,

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but I had three of them this weekend and they lost.

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They were Ravens plus seven and a half, and that

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one really pissed me off because I feel like they

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left a lot on the table. Browns wasn't close, and

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Chargers fit me and asked Rob, I know better than

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that to be optimistic about the Chargers land points. So

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those were not good. Overall in the NFL, I did

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go three and three, so tonight I think it went

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three and three. I'm pretty much split. So tonight is

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a big deal for me with Monday night football. You know,

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how's everything been for you?

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Speaker 2: I tell you what. It was great up until yes

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today's ski I had some a lot of big plays

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in college football and put a lot in the bank

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roll Thursday through Saturday, a lot of wins. I think

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it was something like nine to three with a lot

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of big plays invested in there. So that was great,

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and then yesterday came and they weren't big plays because

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I didn't love the NFL card, but I didn't win

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an NFL game yesterday at all. It started started with

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that Denver team total thirteen points with about nine minutes

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left in the second quarter or ten points, I guess,

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and really don't score again. Followed that up with oh

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the Chargers. Let me talk about the Chargers. I had

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the Chargers ski in a different form. I had them

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first half over twelve and a half points. They scored

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three times, they kicked three field goals. It put in

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the end zone one time. Guys, they couldn't do it.

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That was followed up by last night's Kansas City Detroit,

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where I had over fifty one, landed forty seven and

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a couple of blown drives there that really could have

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added to So, you know, the term left stuff on

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the table. I think that game did, but we'll get

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back with it. Overall, it was a winning weekend. Just

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could have been a lot better than it was.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's see if we can do better tonight.

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We have two Monday night football games we're gonna talk about,

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and we will start with the Bills at the Falcons.

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This one opened up my bad and shout out to

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Derwin Smith. I like that, and the chest says, but Upski,

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you have a good feeling today. You're gonna give it. No,

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You're gonna give it your best. Appreciate you. I appreciate

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you as well, all right, Buffalo in Atlanta open up

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minus five for the road team looks like minus three

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and a half currently total open forty nine and a half.

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And I'm seeing a lot of fifties out there. I

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mean there are some forty nine and a halfs depending

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where you shop. You have the Bills off of a loss,

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you have the Falcons off of a bye here. This

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one is really interesting to me, Robbie. You know, I

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think a lot of people have run to and don't

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bet the Falcons, probably because they're at home and off

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of a bye. And the Bill's run defense has not

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been the greatest. I don't think the Bill's defense has

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been good or solid. I think in the red zone,

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but overall, I think the run defense hasn't been the best.

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So I think that matchup could be what people like here.

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It's tough when I'm thinking about Pennix versus Josh Allen

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to go and run to the window with you know,

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you really could just ask Buffalo to win this game.

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That's how I feel. That's what it's getting close to.

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So I'm curious which side of the fense are you on?

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You like the matchup for the Falcons at home? Are

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you going with the better quarterback on the road? What

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you're thinking here?

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Speaker 2: Well, I'll start with what you said in the middle.

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There ski people playing this game because Buffalo's run defense,

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I mean few things right off of a buy. Like

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you said, at home, they've been better at home, although

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they did lose to Tampa here a good team by three,

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and the Bills deep run defense has been lousy one

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hundred and forty five yards per game allowed. But I

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think what gets lost in that mix is they played

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the last four games without ed Oliver, and ed Oliver

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is their run stuffing defender. I mean without him, they

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don't stop the run. It's the same with Baltimore losing

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their top run defender and Tonight ed Oliver's back. So

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all of a sudden, that one hundred and forty five

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yards per game allowed in my estimate, it's another reason

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why we just can't look at overall statistics and run

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with them, because he makes a difference. Now, you could

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counter that a little bit Ski by saying, ed Oliver

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he went out in Game one, he was playing, got hurt,

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and that was the game against Baltimore where Derrick Henry

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was kind of going crazy. And I think Derek Henry

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went crazy for the majority of the game, but a

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lot of it when Oliver was out. So to me,

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that run b Jeon Robinson is a great running back

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next to Derek Henry. He's probably one a some people

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would argue better, but having Oliver back makes a big,

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big different. Second thing I'll say is when I look

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at the Falcons, and I've watched them a couple of

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times this year, their offensive weaponry is so limited. Ski.

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You have Drake London, a good wide receiver, but your

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deep threat Daryl Mooney is on the injured list, and

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you have a tight end in Kyle Pitts. But Buffalo's

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been the third best team defending tight ends this year.

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So now, if Robinson gets slowed a little bit because

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Oliver's present, if in fact Pitts gets slowed a little

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bit because Buffalo plays tight ends really well, you're left

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with Pennix and you're left with Drake London. And is

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that enough to beat Buffalo, I'm not sure your offensive

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line has to play really good, your defense has to

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play really good. Then, when I went through schedules, because

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I see a lot of commentary on how Buffalo has

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played a week schedule, true, I can't argue it. When

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you played Miami, the Jets, and New Orleans and you

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won all three games week schedule, You've lost to Baltimore

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and you've lost to New England. But you could say

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the same for the Falcons. They beat Minnesota, and Minnesota

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had was missing three starting offensive linemen. They only had

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two linemen in that game and Atlanta wins. And then

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they beat Washington without Jade and Daniels. We know Washington's

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not the same without their quarterback. That's been proven. They

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lost by thirty to Carolina, and you know, like I say,

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lost to Tampa early in the season. So I don't

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know that the Falcons have been that much better. I

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don't know. Off of bye is a really nice thing

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to say. It sounds good, right, Oh, they're off a

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bye and they're at home. But some of these teams.

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We talk about rest versus rust in other situations a lot,

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But I guess you can apply it to bye weeks too.

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Some teams don't come out full force off of a bye.

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It takes a while. I think it might take Atlanta

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a while to adjust to playing Josh Allen. I don't

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care how many weeks of preparation you have to get

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ready for Josh Allen. It's like that Mike Tyson phrase.

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You think you got a game plan until you get

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punched in the mouth. Then you got to change your

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game plan a little bit. Buffalo might get there early.

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They've been a really, really good scoring team in the

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first half. I think thirteen plus and four of the

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five games that they've played. I think they could cover

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first half for sure. I think they'll be ahead by

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a field goal. It's probably the way I lean the

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best Buffalo minus two and a half first half, but

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I can see them winning this game as well. Total.

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I don't really have a good feel for because if

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in fact it, Oliver makes a big difference tonight, Atlanta's

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gonna have a hard time scoring b Jeanne Robinson. He

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leads that team in rushing and receiving. They're so dependent

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on him it's crazy. Buffalo is often a loss, a

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little bit angry, and to top that off, Buffalo does

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have a bye week next week, so they can sell

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out this week with a bye next week, you come

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a few reasons to like Buffalo. I guess I'll probably

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try them first half minus two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that what you said about Bijon Mark likes his

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rushing and receiving over one on nine and a half.

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I could understand why you like that. Yeah, it's hard

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for me. It's Bills their past for me from a

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side perspective. But let's talk a little bit more about

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this total. I know you said you don't feel strong

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about it, but just looking a little bit more, I

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mean you already mentioned if Ed Oliver is back, that's

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going to help this Bills run defense. I feel like

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the Bills. I feel like both of these teams have

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struggled in the reds on the score, so I feel

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like it's going to be a run heavy game script

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and we're thinking the Bills run defense will be better.

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So who knows how much success the Falcons actually have.

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And I think that the Bills are going to be

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run heavy as well. So I don't know that sounds

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like tick ticks me. I mean, why are we not

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going to the under this game? When teams get to

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a bye week, right, that gives you time to work

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on whatever was wrong. So Atlanta, I mean, yeah, they

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won their last game, but they gave up twenty seven

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game for that, they gave up thirty Maybe, I mean

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I would have to look it up, but maybe some

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guys on the defense got healthier. Maybe they're just working

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on the defense. I know that would be number one

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priority for me just looking at the box score. So

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any thought on that what I'm saying. And also one

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more I'm looking at time possession for both of these

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teams is number one and number two. They don't play

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very fast. They kind of just milk the clock. I'm

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thinking under.

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Speaker 2: It's hard to dispute its ski. It really is. Without

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the help of turnovers and short fields or explosive plays,

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big play touchdowns, it's hard to argue that two plus

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two week was for logic. I'll add this to it.

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Raheem Morris, just to your point about how many points

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Atlanta has given up the last two weeks, it's really

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not due to personnel not being on the field. His

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complaints were and I guess they went through this two

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week period between games. In an article that I've read

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trying to correct what's wrong. He says, they got fifteen

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pressures on the quarterback in their last game and only

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got two sacks, and they need to convert more sacks

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because those non sacks you turn into situations where teams

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either end up converting first downs or get out of

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bad down in distant situations whatever. But the answer to

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that in this game is do you really sack Josh Allen?

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I mean a different quarterback. I could understand that logic,

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but nobody really sacks this guy, and he gets out

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of a lot of pressures. So I don't know that

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their defense gets a heck of a lot better. But

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I will say to your point, and I look at

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the other side. The Bills do run James Cook a lot,

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and they're going to test the Atlanta defensive front. So

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from a totalist perspective, the logic sounds good. Under fifty points.

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I know it's been bad up about what about a

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half a point forty nine and a half to fifty.

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It's indoors, there's no weather, et cetera. But we saw

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last night even Casey and Detroit couldn't get over fifty.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it. That Uh, that's the way I'm

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thinking for tonight's game, And like I said, if I'm

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getting to the window with the side, it's going to

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be the road team for me. All right, Let's talk

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about one more here, Rob, You know that is the

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Bears and the Commanders opened up minus four and a

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half for Washington. Now it looks like five and a

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half pretty much everywhere total, not a whole lot of

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movement opening forty nine and a half. Still looking at

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that right now. So the Bears heard a team off

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with the by here, I don't know, you know, I

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don't have that stronger an opinion on this. I would

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think I don't really trust the Commander's land points. I

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think the EDI could win the game, but like I

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don't want to be laying a lot of points versus

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team off the buy. That's just my thought process. Is

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there anything for you on this one?

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Speaker 2: And the weather's really bad here too, Ski in this

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region of the country. I mean, I'm looking out the

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window at pouring rain right now. The weather report does

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show that by eight point fifteen tonight Eastern, when this

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game will be played, rain will slow down. It's a

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grass field. I'd imagine they have it covered to whatever

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degree they cover it, but it could become an issue.

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I just the Bears defensively. I don't like very much

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Caleb Williams propensity to turn the ball over. I don't

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like very much. Washington has seen of Ben Johnson offense

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before they played Detroit a couple of times. Didn't defend

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it well. But Detroit is better personnel than the Bears.

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I think in the long run, what I do trust

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out of all of this mess is Washington to score points.

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Daniels came back last week and against the difficult Chargers defense,

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they scored twenty seven. If you can score twenty seven

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on the road against the Charges, man you could score

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twenty seven at home against the Bears. I would think

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the Bears have been even the game against the Cowboys,

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where when you just look at the result and see

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they only allowed fourteen points, the Cowboys threw three interceptions

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in the end zone. They could have had three more

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touchdowns in that game potentially. So the Bears defense still

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is bad, very bad. Washington's offense becomes very good when

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Daniels is in there. Of course, the receiving corps is

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beat up a little bit, so that is a drawback.

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Have not played. If I did, i'd be looking at

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Washington team total.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is when I have to stay

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away from some guys in the chatking a couple of things.

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But for Ski, I think I'll be on the sideline

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for that second NFL game. I think that's it here.

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You know, I didn't really want to talk too much

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baseball today, so we can just move it right along

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to best Bets, and I'm not even sure if we

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can worry still going, so I'm not gonna put up

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any graphic, but I'll ask you if there's anything you

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would like to promote, and if you do have a

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best bet for the show, we love to hear it.

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If you don't, it's all good.

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Speaker 2: Yeah real quick here, Ski, just because you and I

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are both involved, I'll go ahead and promote the Wager

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Talk NBA show, which you and I will both be

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a part of. I think it begins with an episode tomorrow.

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NBA starts on the twenty first, and we're already at

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the thirteenth. It's hard to believe that we're halfway through

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football and we're gonna have to begin NBA. But I

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know most of the audience here loves basketball, so really quick.

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Just check Wager Talk TV. We will be part of

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the NBA show that begins tomorrow. Best bets is impossible

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for me here ski because I didn't bet anything with

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conviction today, So without having gone to the window yet,

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I will say that where baseball is concerned, it's slight leans,

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but nothing that I've gotten to yet, So I'm going

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to pass on best bets here. We usually like to

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give advice that we're backing with our own wallets. I

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don't have that in tow today, so I'm going to

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skip today and maybe we get you something stronger tomorrow. Actually,

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there's three college football games tomorrow, so I'll probably have

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something much worthy of a best bet tomorrow than today.

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Speaker 1: For myself. Today, I also have not made a wager,

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but I like that first game. It's either under fifty

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or bills for myself, and I'm leaning more towards the bills.

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I mean, I'm leaning more towards the under. I just think,

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if anything, we're gonna see run heavy game plan from

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both teams, and that run defense can be better. With

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Ed Oliver back for Buffalo, I'll make a big difference

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as well. So the Redson struggles for Atlanta you know,

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neither team playing very fast. I think it's another game,

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so I'm very likely to get there. I just don't

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like to tell you, you know, I only like to

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give you what I have in my pocket. So if

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I do play it, I'll tweet it out. How about that?

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So Vino, see if I did that, right, there we go.

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I appreciate you taking the time to break those couple

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games down with us. Everybody in the chat, we appreciate

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you as well. Man, So tomorrow we only have what

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college football and baseball.

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Speaker 2: I guess right, Yeah, it should be a Dodger game tomorrow,

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all right, So.

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Speaker 1: We'll see if we can find you guys some money tomorrow.

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Best of luck, everybody on all your action tonight. We'll

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catch you guys later