Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we always start this show by
being transparent. And the weekend was not great for me, Rob.
You know, my plays have been were perfect throughout week six,
but I had three of them this weekend and they lost.
They were Ravens plus seven and a half, and that
one really pissed me off because I feel like they
left a lot on the table. Browns wasn't close, and
Chargers fit me and asked Rob, I know better than
that to be optimistic about the Chargers land points. So
those were not good. Overall in the NFL, I did
go three and three, so tonight I think it went
three and three. I'm pretty much split. So tonight is
a big deal for me with Monday night football. You know,
how's everything been for you?
Speaker 2: I tell you what. It was great up until yes
today's ski I had some a lot of big plays
in college football and put a lot in the bank
roll Thursday through Saturday, a lot of wins. I think
it was something like nine to three with a lot
of big plays invested in there. So that was great,
and then yesterday came and they weren't big plays because
I didn't love the NFL card, but I didn't win
an NFL game yesterday at all. It started started with
that Denver team total thirteen points with about nine minutes
left in the second quarter or ten points, I guess,
and really don't score again. Followed that up with oh
the Chargers. Let me talk about the Chargers. I had
the Chargers ski in a different form. I had them
first half over twelve and a half points. They scored
three times, they kicked three field goals. It put in
the end zone one time. Guys, they couldn't do it.
That was followed up by last night's Kansas City Detroit,
where I had over fifty one, landed forty seven and
a couple of blown drives there that really could have
added to So, you know, the term left stuff on
the table. I think that game did, but we'll get
back with it. Overall, it was a winning weekend. Just
could have been a lot better than it was.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's see if we can do better tonight.
We have two Monday night football games we're gonna talk about,
and we will start with the Bills at the Falcons.
This one opened up my bad and shout out to
Derwin Smith. I like that, and the chest says, but Upski,
you have a good feeling today. You're gonna give it. No,
You're gonna give it your best. Appreciate you. I appreciate
you as well, all right, Buffalo in Atlanta open up
minus five for the road team looks like minus three
and a half currently total open forty nine and a half.
And I'm seeing a lot of fifties out there. I
mean there are some forty nine and a halfs depending
where you shop. You have the Bills off of a loss,
you have the Falcons off of a bye here. This
one is really interesting to me, Robbie. You know, I
think a lot of people have run to and don't
bet the Falcons, probably because they're at home and off
of a bye. And the Bill's run defense has not
been the greatest. I don't think the Bill's defense has
been good or solid. I think in the red zone,
but overall, I think the run defense hasn't been the best.
So I think that matchup could be what people like here.
It's tough when I'm thinking about Pennix versus Josh Allen
to go and run to the window with you know,
you really could just ask Buffalo to win this game.
That's how I feel. That's what it's getting close to.
So I'm curious which side of the fense are you on?
You like the matchup for the Falcons at home? Are
you going with the better quarterback on the road? What
you're thinking here?
Speaker 2: Well, I'll start with what you said in the middle.
There ski people playing this game because Buffalo's run defense,
I mean few things right off of a buy. Like
you said, at home, they've been better at home, although
they did lose to Tampa here a good team by three,
and the Bills deep run defense has been lousy one
hundred and forty five yards per game allowed. But I
think what gets lost in that mix is they played
the last four games without ed Oliver, and ed Oliver
is their run stuffing defender. I mean without him, they
don't stop the run. It's the same with Baltimore losing
their top run defender and Tonight ed Oliver's back. So
all of a sudden, that one hundred and forty five
yards per game allowed in my estimate, it's another reason
why we just can't look at overall statistics and run
with them, because he makes a difference. Now, you could
counter that a little bit Ski by saying, ed Oliver
he went out in Game one, he was playing, got hurt,
and that was the game against Baltimore where Derrick Henry
was kind of going crazy. And I think Derek Henry
went crazy for the majority of the game, but a
lot of it when Oliver was out. So to me,
that run b Jeon Robinson is a great running back
next to Derek Henry. He's probably one a some people
would argue better, but having Oliver back makes a big,
big different. Second thing I'll say is when I look
at the Falcons, and I've watched them a couple of
times this year, their offensive weaponry is so limited. Ski.
You have Drake London, a good wide receiver, but your
deep threat Daryl Mooney is on the injured list, and
you have a tight end in Kyle Pitts. But Buffalo's
been the third best team defending tight ends this year.
So now, if Robinson gets slowed a little bit because
Oliver's present, if in fact Pitts gets slowed a little
bit because Buffalo plays tight ends really well, you're left
with Pennix and you're left with Drake London. And is
that enough to beat Buffalo, I'm not sure your offensive
line has to play really good, your defense has to
play really good. Then, when I went through schedules, because
I see a lot of commentary on how Buffalo has
played a week schedule, true, I can't argue it. When
you played Miami, the Jets, and New Orleans and you
won all three games week schedule, You've lost to Baltimore
and you've lost to New England. But you could say
the same for the Falcons. They beat Minnesota, and Minnesota
had was missing three starting offensive linemen. They only had
two linemen in that game and Atlanta wins. And then
they beat Washington without Jade and Daniels. We know Washington's
not the same without their quarterback. That's been proven. They
lost by thirty to Carolina, and you know, like I say,
lost to Tampa early in the season. So I don't
know that the Falcons have been that much better. I
don't know. Off of bye is a really nice thing
to say. It sounds good, right, Oh, they're off a
bye and they're at home. But some of these teams.
We talk about rest versus rust in other situations a lot,
But I guess you can apply it to bye weeks too.
Some teams don't come out full force off of a bye.
It takes a while. I think it might take Atlanta
a while to adjust to playing Josh Allen. I don't
care how many weeks of preparation you have to get
ready for Josh Allen. It's like that Mike Tyson phrase.
You think you got a game plan until you get
punched in the mouth. Then you got to change your
game plan a little bit. Buffalo might get there early.
They've been a really, really good scoring team in the
first half. I think thirteen plus and four of the
five games that they've played. I think they could cover
first half for sure. I think they'll be ahead by
a field goal. It's probably the way I lean the
best Buffalo minus two and a half first half, but
I can see them winning this game as well. Total.
I don't really have a good feel for because if
in fact it, Oliver makes a big difference tonight, Atlanta's
gonna have a hard time scoring b Jeanne Robinson. He
leads that team in rushing and receiving. They're so dependent
on him it's crazy. Buffalo is often a loss, a
little bit angry, and to top that off, Buffalo does
have a bye week next week, so they can sell
out this week with a bye next week, you come
a few reasons to like Buffalo. I guess I'll probably
try them first half minus two and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that what you said about Bijon Mark likes his
rushing and receiving over one on nine and a half.
I could understand why you like that. Yeah, it's hard
for me. It's Bills their past for me from a
side perspective. But let's talk a little bit more about
this total. I know you said you don't feel strong
about it, but just looking a little bit more, I
mean you already mentioned if Ed Oliver is back, that's
going to help this Bills run defense. I feel like
the Bills. I feel like both of these teams have
struggled in the reds on the score, so I feel
like it's going to be a run heavy game script
and we're thinking the Bills run defense will be better.
So who knows how much success the Falcons actually have.
And I think that the Bills are going to be
run heavy as well. So I don't know that sounds
like tick ticks me. I mean, why are we not
going to the under this game? When teams get to
a bye week, right, that gives you time to work
on whatever was wrong. So Atlanta, I mean, yeah, they
won their last game, but they gave up twenty seven
game for that, they gave up thirty Maybe, I mean
I would have to look it up, but maybe some
guys on the defense got healthier. Maybe they're just working
on the defense. I know that would be number one
priority for me just looking at the box score. So
any thought on that what I'm saying. And also one
more I'm looking at time possession for both of these
teams is number one and number two. They don't play
very fast. They kind of just milk the clock. I'm
thinking under.
Speaker 2: It's hard to dispute its ski. It really is. Without
the help of turnovers and short fields or explosive plays,
big play touchdowns, it's hard to argue that two plus
two week was for logic. I'll add this to it.
Raheem Morris, just to your point about how many points
Atlanta has given up the last two weeks, it's really
not due to personnel not being on the field. His
complaints were and I guess they went through this two
week period between games. In an article that I've read
trying to correct what's wrong. He says, they got fifteen
pressures on the quarterback in their last game and only
got two sacks, and they need to convert more sacks
because those non sacks you turn into situations where teams
either end up converting first downs or get out of
bad down in distant situations whatever. But the answer to
that in this game is do you really sack Josh Allen?
I mean a different quarterback. I could understand that logic,
but nobody really sacks this guy, and he gets out
of a lot of pressures. So I don't know that
their defense gets a heck of a lot better. But
I will say to your point, and I look at
the other side. The Bills do run James Cook a lot,
and they're going to test the Atlanta defensive front. So
from a totalist perspective, the logic sounds good. Under fifty points.
I know it's been bad up about what about a
half a point forty nine and a half to fifty.
It's indoors, there's no weather, et cetera. But we saw
last night even Casey and Detroit couldn't get over fifty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it. That Uh, that's the way I'm
thinking for tonight's game, And like I said, if I'm
getting to the window with the side, it's going to
be the road team for me. All right, Let's talk
about one more here, Rob, You know that is the
Bears and the Commanders opened up minus four and a
half for Washington. Now it looks like five and a
half pretty much everywhere total, not a whole lot of
movement opening forty nine and a half. Still looking at
that right now. So the Bears heard a team off
with the by here, I don't know, you know, I
don't have that stronger an opinion on this. I would
think I don't really trust the Commander's land points. I
think the EDI could win the game, but like I
don't want to be laying a lot of points versus
team off the buy. That's just my thought process. Is
there anything for you on this one?
Speaker 2: And the weather's really bad here too, Ski in this
region of the country. I mean, I'm looking out the
window at pouring rain right now. The weather report does
show that by eight point fifteen tonight Eastern, when this
game will be played, rain will slow down. It's a
grass field. I'd imagine they have it covered to whatever
degree they cover it, but it could become an issue.
I just the Bears defensively. I don't like very much
Caleb Williams propensity to turn the ball over. I don't
like very much. Washington has seen of Ben Johnson offense
before they played Detroit a couple of times. Didn't defend
it well. But Detroit is better personnel than the Bears.
I think in the long run, what I do trust
out of all of this mess is Washington to score points.
Daniels came back last week and against the difficult Chargers defense,
they scored twenty seven. If you can score twenty seven
on the road against the Charges, man you could score
twenty seven at home against the Bears. I would think
the Bears have been even the game against the Cowboys,
where when you just look at the result and see
they only allowed fourteen points, the Cowboys threw three interceptions
in the end zone. They could have had three more
touchdowns in that game potentially. So the Bears defense still
is bad, very bad. Washington's offense becomes very good when
Daniels is in there. Of course, the receiving corps is
beat up a little bit, so that is a drawback.
Have not played. If I did, i'd be looking at
Washington team total.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is when I have to stay
away from some guys in the chatking a couple of things.
But for Ski, I think I'll be on the sideline
for that second NFL game. I think that's it here.
You know, I didn't really want to talk too much
baseball today, so we can just move it right along
to best Bets, and I'm not even sure if we
can worry still going, so I'm not gonna put up
any graphic, but I'll ask you if there's anything you
would like to promote, and if you do have a
best bet for the show, we love to hear it.
If you don't, it's all good.
Speaker 2: Yeah real quick here, Ski, just because you and I
are both involved, I'll go ahead and promote the Wager
Talk NBA show, which you and I will both be
a part of. I think it begins with an episode tomorrow.
NBA starts on the twenty first, and we're already at
the thirteenth. It's hard to believe that we're halfway through
football and we're gonna have to begin NBA. But I
know most of the audience here loves basketball, so really quick.
Just check Wager Talk TV. We will be part of
the NBA show that begins tomorrow. Best bets is impossible
for me here ski because I didn't bet anything with
conviction today, So without having gone to the window yet,
I will say that where baseball is concerned, it's slight leans,
but nothing that I've gotten to yet, So I'm going
to pass on best bets here. We usually like to
give advice that we're backing with our own wallets. I
don't have that in tow today, so I'm going to
skip today and maybe we get you something stronger tomorrow. Actually,
there's three college football games tomorrow, so I'll probably have
something much worthy of a best bet tomorrow than today.
Speaker 1: For myself. Today, I also have not made a wager,
but I like that first game. It's either under fifty
or bills for myself, and I'm leaning more towards the bills.
I mean, I'm leaning more towards the under. I just think,
if anything, we're gonna see run heavy game plan from
both teams, and that run defense can be better. With
Ed Oliver back for Buffalo, I'll make a big difference
as well. So the Redson struggles for Atlanta you know,
neither team playing very fast. I think it's another game,
so I'm very likely to get there. I just don't
like to tell you, you know, I only like to
give you what I have in my pocket. So if
I do play it, I'll tweet it out. How about that?
So Vino, see if I did that, right, there we go.
I appreciate you taking the time to break those couple
games down with us. Everybody in the chat, we appreciate
you as well. Man, So tomorrow we only have what
college football and baseball.
Speaker 2: I guess right, Yeah, it should be a Dodger game tomorrow,
all right, So.
Speaker 1: We'll see if we can find you guys some money tomorrow.
Best of luck, everybody on all your action tonight. We'll
catch you guys later