Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we always start this show by
being transparent. Yesterday two and one, my top play was
the Valkyries. That one lost, so not huge profit on
the day, but still slight profit the player. I gave
us the best bet for the show. That was easy
money Courtney Williams over twenty five and a half PRA
and then Link's minus ten and a half. I dig
it to the window with that. Those are both the winners.
So two and one overall, how did you do yesterday?
We know how you doing today.
Speaker 2: I am doing good, buddy. I did not get to
the window in the WNBA had the the Phoenix Golden
State game over one fifty eight and a half. Thought
I was going to get overtime at seventy seven seventy seven,
commit a foul with one second left and wind up
not winning that one, but wind up with a split
because we had a winner and be a summer league
which is about five and won the last three days,
so that's been profitable. But you say a little bit short,
and I believe that's the game I left as the
best bet for the show. The Mercury and Valkyrie's game over.
So we need to do better today's ski at least
I do.
Speaker 1: Man, WNBA is starting to turn into NBA a little bit.
And what I mean by that this is this is
a rant for today. What I mean by that is,
And you guys can say if I'm wrong, maybe I
was looking through, maybe I was biased, but all of
everybody was betting Golden State yesterday, like all the percentages
and all that stuff said Golden State, and I could
tell from the first quarter, the first five minutes they
weren't going to be getting any costs. They like Tiffany
Hayes was crashing out on the ref cussing the ref
out because they were not calling what they should be calling.
So that's kind of how we see in the NBA.
I don't think I've ever felt like that about the
WNBA until recently. But that's my two cents for today.
No need to reply, but if you have anything to
say on that.
Speaker 2: You know, no, I mean, I would have liked the
non call at the end of that game though, because
it would have helped me. I was looking, you know,
your side on total, but we were both looking biasedly
at that at the end of the game. So certainly
you know something interesting, Skiing. I'm trying to look as
we talk here, is that WNBA officials are actually doing
Summer League as well, and some of these are doing
a game a day Summer League WNBA, Summer League WNBA,
And I'm just looking to see who that officiating crew
was last night in the Phoenix game real quick, just
to see if they. You know, if you're fatigued and
you just want to end the game and you blow
the whistle one second left because you don't want to
go to overtime, it's conspiracy thinking. But you never know.
You just never know.
Speaker 1: Oh, I know my eyes. I was not looking through
the tequila Lynbs last night. It was only water. I
was watching very very close. Jess says, what do you say,
Ski looks better today. Ukevi says, probably didn't have twenty
tequilas last night. Jeffrey, there you go, Bingo, you get
it all right, Let's get to it. We have two
games today. Man. Ironically, I was in a better mood
yesterday and today, even though I was hungover. But let's
get to it. Fever and Connecticut. It opened minus fourteen
and a half for the fever. It says how it's
sixteen total open one sixty four and a half. It
looks like one sixty six and a half. I don't
think anybody's on the injury report here. Oh actually, I'm sorry.
Maybury's been out for a while, but we already know
she's not going to be playing, so outside of her,
looks like both teams are healthy and veno. It was
a little bit of drama last time these teams saw
each other. I can't even call it a little bit.
There was a few scuffles, fights, whatever you want to say.
Speaker 2: We know J. C.
Speaker 1: Sheldon and Kaitlyn Clark don't like each other. Sophie came
in there trying to be an enforcer. Right. It was
a lot going on in that game, son, I believe
we're an eighteen point favorite. You know, I'm sorry, eighteen
point underdog. They covered by one point fever one by seventeen.
And that time was in Indiana. Now they'll face each
other again, this time in Connecticut, and it was a
little bit shorter spread. And I'll mention, I mean, we
can't ignore all year long Caitlyn Clark money at home,
disaster on the road. I'm curious if we see that
here tonight. And I do think, especially after how that
last game went and how she was talking to people,
they make it a point to, you know, try to
shut her down today. And also I think the Sun
had been playing better. They've been in a better rhythm
now than the last time these team teams met. At
that point, they were just getting blown out by twenty
plus every night, it felt like. So this feels like
it'll be a pretty good game to watch. I'll have
my popcorn out seeing what action we get this time.
How are you seeing this game going? Veno?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Indiana will win simply because I mean,
obviously that's not going out on a limit of sixteen
point favorite, but simply because I talked yesterday about the
stand things closing in on the All Star Game, and
the Indiana team is tied with Washington. A win here
by Indiana potential loss by Washington in the late game
would give them sole possession of sixth place. I think
these games are important to them. For Connecticut, it is
a little bit of a rebuilding process here. They're trying
to get things right. Brio Hartley's been pretty good as
of late, coming on a little bit next to J. C.
Sheldon is one of the starting guards. What I noticed here,
Skate is, you know, I didn't want to lay sixteen
points and should be afraid of the full game total.
I really shouldn't, but I tried to go back and
see what Connecticut has done in the first half, because
it seemed to me that Connecticut has been giving up
a just a ton of points to everybody first halves
this year. They've given up forty or more in eleven
of fifteen, but even tightening it up less than that.
Even though they've been playing well the last three games,
they've given up forty nine and forty seven in two
of the last three first halves forty three, fifty fifty two,
forty fifty nine, forty two, forty seven seven to the
last eight, they've given up forty or more. So potentially
Indiana as a first half team total play, but then
you look at the team total and you see forty six,
and it's kind of scares you off. So I think
the oddsmaker has done a good job of keeping me
off of Indiana, probably keeping me off of first half total.
The only thing I'm left with here is either taking
the points with Connecticut, which Like you said, the last
three games, two of which were against Seattle. Played well.
In both Seattle games, and then against LA which we
know doesn't play any defense, Connecticut played well. I'm always
scared that Connecticut will go into a scoring drought, and
last time they played, not only was there a little
bit of a scuffle, but the Fever did win by seventeen.
You kind of cited the differences between Fever home play
specifically Kate and Clark, and road play. I think if
I was to look here, Scale would probably either be
on full game over, thinking that Connecticut. We're still not
kind of sold on the Indiana defense. But even if
they shut Caitlyn Clark down and keep her quiet, there's
so many scoring options for Indiana right now. I don't
think they're going to be kept quiet on the scoreboard here.
So maybe full game over and maybe if you're looking
side slightly into Connecticut. But I didn't play the game,
and I don't think that I will be playing the scheme.
Speaker 1: First half. I mean, I see the total at three
different numbers. I'm trying to log in just to verify.
ID screen could be a little bit off, you never know,
but let's see here half Okay, yes, the Caesar's number
was off of tad, But eighty four and a half
eighty five as we're looking at there, I mean it
seems like it's a little bit shaded towards the first half.
I can see points early. And also, if you like
the over it could be one you want to get
in and get out because like who mentioned if somebody
else mentioned it here, we're trying to go find it. Yeah.
Fever are also on the front end of a back
to back. They play in New York Liberty tomorrow, so
you know they're going to save some energy for that game.
That's a high profile game. You know this comment right here,
starters could wrest them in the fourth if the Fever
are up. We could see this game go a lot
of different ways. But the first half when I seeing
nobody resting, you know what I'm saying. So first half
total eighty four and a half does seem appealing. Ukypra
says he likes to over as well. B Man says
likes to over sun worse defense in WNBA history says,
and U Capra says, they're not wasting energy on defense
today and that makes sense. That makes sense right there?
I think we did this one pretty good. I don't
think it's I don't think the Fever care too much
about this game, like they won the last game, all
that scuffle stuff. I think this is the son who
care more so Son or over. I think our son
or first half over I think are good good bets
here justin likes those Son all right. Next game, Mystics
and Sparks opened up minus two for LA looks like
minus one. I mean, this line has been all over
the place. It's gone from. It went to Washington as
a favorite, now we're back with the Sparks. It's the favorite.
Total open one sixty three and a half, seeing it
as high as one sixty six. And you do have
the Mystics coming off of a nice win against the Storm,
right if I'm thinking correctly, and the Sparks they did
barely squeak past the Connecticut Sun. Sparks have not been
playing the best basketball all season or lately howeveryone look
at it, and their defense has been extremely untrustworthy. The Mystics,
they've been pretty solid defensively, they've been kind of iffy sometimes,
like for a stretch they'll look great in another stretch.
Is like what are they doing. But I think the
Mystics have looked a lot better than the Sparks this year,
and that's the team that I can trust more to
get a stop. So that makes me want to look
towards the Mystics here. Total wise, I'm not really in
the market a betting Sparks game under I just right,
it's a lot more things I'd rather do if I
bet a Sparks game under I better be prepared to,
you know, have a few tequilas coming my way by halftime.
So over or Mystics, we know, how are you seeing
this one?
Speaker 2: Well? I did get involved in this one, Ski And
there's no sense we used to say often on the
Wager Talk NBA show, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
And there's no reason to not bet an La Sparks
over as long as they're going to keep listing them
in this particular price range. And I know we get
it in this price range, and it's been bumped up
to this one sixty five that we see. I think
it opened one sixty three and a half, but it
you know, it opens that way based on Washington and
the fact that they're methodical, not a fast tempo team. Well,
actually they are number five in tempo in the league
if you check it out, But they don't appear to
be a fast temple team, and they're a low scoring team.
More defense Aria, it's oriented oriented, So I had to
dig a little bit. I think if Washington and this
is the first time these two teams have met all
season long. If you're Washington, you like looking across the
floor and seeing that LA defense. The Sparks are twelve
out of thirteen teams in the league in defensive raiding
and field goal percentage allowed. In paint field goal percentage
and points per game allowed, they're allowing eighty seven point
two per game. I could go on and on. That's
just four of the categories where they stick. On defense,
they've given up eighty two plus in seventeen of their
last twenty games. Doesn't really matter who they're playing, so
the eighty seven point two isn't skewed. It's not like
they gave up one twenty one night in seventy the next.
The Sparks consistently give up points. They're fifteen and four.
Their games are fifteen and four over the total that's
posted tonight. In their last nineteen games. That's a big number.
And if you look at Washington, five of the six
games that Washington has gotten to play a team with
a lousy defense. By lousy defense, I mean they ranked
tenth or worse in defensive raiding. When Washington has played
those types defenses, they've scored seventy nine In that game
they didn't have Britney Sykes eighty one, ninety ninety one
and one oh four. So Washington's offense is kind of
a bully type offense. If you can't play any d
they're going to score on you. It's the rest of
the league they don't score that high against. If you
want to say that they play too slow of a
tempo to get this game over, I would say this.
The Sparks against the four slowest tempo teams in the NBA.
When they've had an opportunity to play one of those
four teams, they've given up eighty two plus in seven
of the eight games and average of eighty six. It
doesn't matter how slow you play, you're going to score
against this team. One of those games, actually, the only
one that didn't make it to eighty two plus Ski
was the very first game of the year was Golden
State's first game as a WNBA team. I think Golden
State only scored sixty seven at night. But the Sparks
give it up against slow teams, non scoring teams, doesn't matter.
Mean while they score on just about everybody. Washington is
tied for six I think in defensive points per game
allowed Sparks against the top five defenses. They've had eleven
chances this year against the top five defense and they've
scored between seventy eight and eighty six and seven of those.
So I think both sides score here. Ski. There's a
couple of interesting matchups, one being if you like free throws,
this could be your game. These teams are number one
and number two in free throw rate in the WNBA.
Kelsey plumbs an artists that get into the line for LA.
Neither team's good defending in the paint. Washington's eleventh LA twelve.
I just don't see why this game doesn't make it
to one seventy. So I played this one over the
one sixty five. Those who got in real early at
sixty three and a half, congratulations, that was a better number.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking at the chat and listening to you
and looking at some of this stuff. You can see this, right,
you know, show it to me? Is it not screen sharing? There? No,
it's not. Okay. See that's good. I asked this time.
There we go. You can see this Sparks just I
mean you, Keper says. He says Sparks don't cover at
home for some reason, maybe because they don't play no defense.
Reason oppon the team total is nine to one to
the over at home for the Sparks, they don't get
any stops. That's what I was saying, Like why I
would lean towards the Mystics because one team I can
trust to get a stop when we needed the other
team it's in God's hands. If you need to stop
at the end of the game, you better off just praying.
So that's how I see it. I didn't really talk
too much about props, but I did consider, I mean, Mystics,
and I was trying to think about the reason why.
But Mystics don't give up that many rebounds. I mean,
I know they have secure Austin. Maybe it's I mean,
they don't give up that many rebounds. The only player
in the last six games to have more than seven
rebounds is Angel Reese. And we all know that's an anomaly.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: So as a race, she's a second leading rebounder this season.
Her rebounding prop is seven and a half. That's less
than what she averages on the season. And also dere
Cahanby's just seven and a half. She hasn't been hitting
that at all. She think she's hitted two of her
last nine games. Mystics don't give up that many. I'm
just trying to think of what's the exact reasoning. And
I wanted to say maybe because it's less possessions in
Mystics games. But I mean, when I look at pace
numbers recently, the middle of the pack, so I couldn't really,
you know, like I had a lot of good reasoning
for Courtney Williams yesterday along with some numbers. You know today,
I have the numbers, but I'm still trying to figure
out the reasoning. But I would think both of them
or Derekaham be probably more than ASA. We'll go under
the rebound prop of seven and a half. An I
know you don't do too much props, you know, ah
my bad, Let me get this out of there. I
know you don't do too many props, but anything stand
out to you as far as that or what do
you think about the rebounds?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean on the LA side, it would be
hard to bet props just because offensively they have a
starting unit that it could be anybody on any night right,
could be Jackson, it could be Plumbing, it could be
anybody on that starting in that starting unit. So I'd
be hard pressed to make a call there I'm thinking
of I don't know if they even list Arry McDonald's assists,
even though she's coming off the bench, she would probably
be a low total. I don't think I could think
of anything there. And for the Washington front Line, to
tell you the truth, Ski, the two rookies forward have
been pretty good. I know Kiki Rifian has been pretty
Ripen has been pretty good on the boards as well.
So I don't know. It looks like everything could be
split up here between these two. There's really no standout
unless Britney Sykes goes off, which she can so I guess,
like you said earlier, I'm not big in the prop market.
I don't have any real suggestions here.
Speaker 1: Britney Sykes could go off too. I mean she was
already snubbed for an All Star. Then Ryan got hurt
and she snubbed again. They put Kayler McBride in there.
I don't know, man, I feel like she might have
a little something to prove more. I think about that,
so that she could be a look there. I think
we did pretty good job here. What are they saying here?
In the chat? There was a question city by the
base skie how you feel about chat GPT slash grock
for sports handicapping. I've never used grock for anything. I'm
not even I mean, I see it pop up on Twitter,
but I don't even know what that is for real
chat GPT. I mean, I don't. I wouldn't trust using
a computer to do all of your handicapping at all
in general for anything. But I mean, I think maybe
chat GPT can be useful for editing, like I don't know,
but don't use it just to find a pick for you.
That's kind of what I'm saying, Like, maybe it can
help you with other stuff, CT tight and CT says
to help him with his his Medicare paperwork. So maybe
it's useful, but don't rely on it just to pick
sports bets for you. All right, do you know what
grock is?
Speaker 2: You know never used it, and I've had this conversation
with friends of mine. I won't use it SKI because
I just don't think there's any human element in chat GPT.
And we all know if you've been around long enough,
betting long enough, that some of this is gut feel
that you just can't put into a computer and have
it spit out. Well, this is the way. Like you said,
you watched the first five minute that game last night, right,
and you knew Golden State wasn't going to get any calls.
Chat GPT doesn't have that feeling, you know what I mean?
So I can't I have to use It's such an
inexact science. I don't know that I could use. It's
probably good, like you say, for editing and for getting
some quicker statistical numbers. If you have to take time
to look up statistics, I'm sure it's helpful there.
Speaker 1: Jeff says, that's like asking skid question about a game
after fifteen tequilas. Don't do it. I appreciate you. You cap
reminded me go ahead and put this up there a ticker.
Forgot about that, and yeah, I mean it is about
that time. Maybe I go ahead and throw this up there.
It is five dollars Tuesday. You can go on any
capper's page and they should have a top play up
for just five dollars today. You can see if you
maybe like what they have going with. They're talking about
their rite up. Whatever the case may be. It's a
good chance to check some people. So that's what I will.
I'll leave, I'll leave. I'll leave Ronald alone with that
other pick for today. I'll stall them out on that
one today, Vino. I'm going to pass it back to you.
I'll ask you if there's anything else you would like
to promote, and uh, if you have a best bet
for the show, feel free to share, and if you don't,
it's all good.
Speaker 2: Real quick, Ski, I'll say that I did make the
photo shooting that picture when I looked so, I wasn't
good enough to make the other photo shoot, but I
got in that one. Yeah, I think you covered at
five dollars. Tuesday is a big day for all handicappers.
Over at wager talk, we all put a five dollar
play up. You can get mine or skis by hopping
over there and just getting to wager talk dot com
play selections and get the five dollar play. I want
to go back with best bets to what I just
talked about with La and Washington. I don't know that
there's I was trying to look it up this morning
because I try to keep pretty thorough records of what
I bet and what I released the clients, and I
don't believe that there's been a more profitable bet for
me this year in the WNBA than sparks games over.
It seems like every time I bet, when I win,
And so I'm back there again here. Like I said,
if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Washington is going
to have a pretty good or they'll have a pretty
good opportunity to score a bunch of points here. La
will score back. I think one thing I missed ski
earlier is that I was pretty impressed by Washington making
a cross country trip from home to Seattle getting buried
in the third quarter, because Seattle came back and played
a really good third quarter. I think they were plus
eight going into the fourth and then Washington storming back
and winning that game by five almost going away. So
that was pretty impressive out of the mystics. So if
you're looking side, I know you did mention perhaps mystics
are a good side here, but I'm going to stick
to the total and play it up in over. One
sixty five is the best bet.
Speaker 1: Good stuff, you know, and for myself, I mean, I
had a gym yesterday, I share with you guys. I
don't have one to share with you today. I do
have a playoff for five dollars Tuesday, but I can't
give that out as the best bet here on the show.
So yeah, just I'll rock with you.
Speaker 2: No.
Speaker 1: I like what he's talking about on that over. I
think that is a solid bet. Vino. Like I always say,
appreciate you taking the time to break the games down
with me. Helps out my process. I'm sure it helps
out everybody else as well. And just have a good
time talking to games out with you. Everybody in the chat.
We appreciate you too, sharing information and you know, we
just appreciate the good vibes from everybody out there, everybody
watching elsewhere, Twitch, x kick, Apple, Spotify, appreciate you all
as well. A lot more games to talk about tomorrow.
Actually two of them would have gone off by the
time we come on. They're very very early games, so
make sure you get up and are aware. But we
still will have three more to talk about. Time, so
we'll see you. Guys' name