Speaker 1: Welcome to the Auction Brief. There's a joy in these
Speaker 1: games or not, taking you on a journey through fantasy football,
Speaker 1: the law, and life. We saw your It depends on
Speaker 1: how much you want.
Speaker 2: And now you're legal analyst and auction draft expert here
Speaker 2: to help you dominate your fantasy drafts.
Speaker 1: Your host, Drew Davenport, there are full hearts.
Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, welcome into the Auction Brief. As the lady said,
Speaker 2: I'm your host, Drew Davenport, and thank you so much
Speaker 2: for joining me for another episode of the Auction Brief.
Speaker 2: The calendar has turned to July. Can you feel the
Speaker 2: suspense building In just a couple of months, we're going
Speaker 2: to be watching football. That's awesome. But we've only got
Speaker 2: about three weeks left until training camps are open, so
Speaker 2: we're going to continue to talk about some stuff that's
Speaker 2: going to help us in drafts before we get a
Speaker 2: deluge of information from training camp that we can use
Speaker 2: and start to react to. But we have a fantastic
Speaker 2: lineup coming up for the Auction Brief. I've heard back
Speaker 2: from some people that are going to be appearing on
Speaker 2: the show, so I'm really stoked about that. Next week,
Speaker 2: we have Joe Dolan coming on from Fantasy Points, and
Speaker 2: if you don't know Joe and you're an auction guy,
Speaker 2: you really need to get to know Joe. But also,
Speaker 2: we're going to do an auction spectacular next week. It's
Speaker 2: not going to be as much about players like normal.
Speaker 2: We're going to flip the script because today is going
Speaker 2: to be about player evaluation and then Tuesday is going
Speaker 2: to be about auction talk. So we're crazy here, man,
Speaker 2: We're crazy. We're doing stuff completely different, man. But I
Speaker 2: think that one of the things that I continue to
Speaker 2: hear from my supporters is that they love when I
Speaker 2: go into player conversation, when I give my player takes
Speaker 2: and how I'm approaching auctions with certain players. People just
Speaker 2: absolutely love that stuff. And so I'm going to do
Speaker 2: that today. We'll talk about that in just a second.
Speaker 2: But we're turning the calendar to July and in the
Speaker 2: next three weeks. These players have a lot of something
Speaker 2: that we don't want them to have, and it's not money,
Speaker 2: it's time. They had a lot of time. Over the
Speaker 2: next three weeks, somebody's gonna get in trouble, and hopefully
Speaker 2: we're gonna hear something about Josh Jacobs. But over the
Speaker 2: next few weeks, what you need to be doing is
Speaker 2: building up your opinions about what you're going to be
Speaker 2: doing in August when it comes time to actually draft,
Speaker 2: and then you need to be doing some mocks and
Speaker 2: seeing if what you're thinking about is actually working. There
Speaker 2: are too many places out there to do mos now
Speaker 2: for you not to do some before you play.
Speaker 1: I'm going to be running some.
Speaker 2: I've got one coming up here next week, and so
Speaker 2: I'm going to hit that hard after the fourth of July.
Speaker 2: It's it's been hard to get a mock together. Frankly,
Speaker 2: just to be honest with you, people are not tuned
Speaker 2: in yet. It's just been hard. So I'm not I
Speaker 2: just I dropped it for now. We're going to get
Speaker 2: back at get back at it after the fourth of
Speaker 2: July and start doing some mocks. But you got to
Speaker 2: start thinking about what you're going to do, what your
Speaker 2: approach is going to be, and if you like my approach, great,
Speaker 2: use it, but start testing it out in those mock
Speaker 2: drafts and seeing if it is achievable. And that's where
Speaker 2: I want to start the show today. You know, I
Speaker 2: went heavy last week with theory and let's just be honest,
Speaker 2: it wasn't heavy with theory. It was ninety eight percent theory.
Speaker 2: And I wanted to do that because I think it's
Speaker 2: really important that we end the month of June talking
Speaker 2: about how we're going to get our heads right, how
Speaker 2: we're going to approach these auctions from a meta standpoint,
Speaker 2: and then once we lay that down, we can start
Speaker 2: getting into the details here in July about the auctions
Speaker 2: but also about players, and then in August we can
Speaker 2: start flying towards what our goals are going to be
Speaker 2: in our twenty twenty six straight. So last week was
Speaker 2: heavy on theory. This week is going to be the
Speaker 2: complete opposite for my solo effort. We're going to talk
Speaker 2: all of the players that I want you to be
Speaker 2: dialed into for this upcoming season, and hey, I reserve
Speaker 2: the right to change my opinions on some of these guys.
Speaker 2: And I think that you want a fantasy analyst who
Speaker 2: changes their mind sometimes, right, That's exactly what we're supposed
Speaker 2: to be doing. When new information is presented, somebody gets hurt.
Speaker 2: Coaches say something player starts running with the ones instead
Speaker 2: of the two. Is like, this is kind of stuff
Speaker 2: you want your analysts to be pliable. It doesn't mean
Speaker 2: that your analyst waffles or isn't sure. It's just that
Speaker 2: new information comes up and you want your analyst to
Speaker 2: change their opinion. We don't want to be anchoring our opinions,
Speaker 2: so it's important to get these opinions out there now
Speaker 2: because then we can follow them and see whether or
Speaker 2: not these opinions are actually going to work. I wrote
Speaker 2: a column for the Patreon about this idea at the
Speaker 2: end of last summer, saying, you know players that I've
Speaker 2: changed my mind on. I'm going to do that again
Speaker 2: this summer because it's really helpful for me to look
Speaker 2: at my biases, look at my previous ideas about players,
Speaker 2: and then figure out where I stand and why I
Speaker 2: stand that way, because it's different from six weeks ago
Speaker 2: or eight weeks ago when we started this whole process.
Speaker 2: So I want to talk player evaluations today, and I
Speaker 2: want to alert you to the fact that the salary
Speaker 2: cap summit than all the details have been officially released,
Speaker 2: So I'm going to be bombarding you with that over
Speaker 2: the next month because it is in early August, so
Speaker 2: we got about a month I've wanted to bring it
Speaker 2: up now when I'm talking about the Patreon, because I'm
Speaker 2: going to give preference to the people in the Patreon
Speaker 2: for the leagues I'm trying to fill for the salary
Speaker 2: Cap Summit. The summit, for those of you that don't know,
Speaker 2: is Night one is going to be an auction draft
Speaker 2: for people who have less experience, usually less than ten
Speaker 2: auction drafts in their life. It's going to be one quarterback.
Speaker 2: It's going to have kickers and defenses. It's going to
Speaker 2: be a super straightforward league. That's Night one, and I'll
Speaker 2: be doing commentary during the entire auction. Night two will
Speaker 2: be another auction for more advanced auction drafters. It'll be
Speaker 2: a superflex two QB league with no kickers and no defenses.
Speaker 2: That'll switch things up even more so. I'll do commentary
Speaker 2: both nights, and then on Night three, that's August the fourth,
Speaker 2: we have a panel featuring guys like Jim Coventry, Scott Pianowski.
Speaker 2: There's some other mystery guests that I have not yet
Speaker 2: nailed down, but that we'll have in there as well.
Speaker 2: So three nights August, second, third, and fourth. If you
Speaker 2: want to be in those leagues. The first two nights.
Speaker 2: It's going to be twenty four spots. I'm taking at
Speaker 2: least seventy five to eighty percent from the Patreon first,
Speaker 2: because that's the benefit of being part of the Patreon
Speaker 2: is that you get first DIBs on this kind of stuff.
Speaker 2: And then after that I'll go to Twitter to fill
Speaker 2: a couple spots and I'll do like a little drawing
Speaker 2: or something like that. This is independent of the Auction
Speaker 2: Brief Listener League, so don't confuse those two. But again,
Speaker 2: you have to be a part of the Patreon order
Speaker 2: to get into the Auction Brief Listener League. Again, around
Speaker 2: seventy five eighty percent. We're not taking everybody from the Patreon,
Speaker 2: but it helps to be in there. You get preferential treatment.
Speaker 2: So head over there. It's Fantasy Football Lawyer on Patreon.
Speaker 2: It's four dollars a month. You can find me on
Speaker 2: Twitter at Drew Davenport FF. Let's be done with the preliminaries.
Speaker 2: I'm really stoked about the salary Cap summit, and I
Speaker 2: could keep rambling on about it, but you all know
Speaker 2: you hear the details.
Speaker 1: We're ready to rock.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about some players today, because like I said,
Speaker 2: it's popular with people, and I have a lot of
Speaker 2: fun breaking down some different categories of players. I've got
Speaker 2: four categories of players that I want you to be
Speaker 2: aware of in your auctions this summer auction talk. I've
Speaker 2: got four different categories of players. So I know the
Speaker 2: episode is titled My Guys for twenty twenty six, and
Speaker 2: that's true, but I have four different categories that are
Speaker 2: much different than your tip my guys conversation, and those
Speaker 2: are four different categories of guys I want you to
Speaker 2: start paying attention to as we go through the next
Speaker 2: six to eight weeks. And again, I reserve the right
Speaker 2: to change my mind on some of these guys. But
Speaker 2: right now, this is how I'm feeling, and this is
Speaker 2: where I believe the trends are going. We're getting into
Speaker 2: that time of year where the trends are established, the
Speaker 2: narratives are established, and these players are going a certain
Speaker 2: direction for a reason, and I think we have enough
Speaker 2: data behind us now to start saying, Okay, we're getting
Speaker 2: into redraft season in July, what are we going to
Speaker 2: do with some of these guys? But I want to
Speaker 2: talk about guys. I like guys. I'm going to take
Speaker 2: a leap of faith on guys that I don't like
Speaker 2: and guys that I think are too cheap and can
Speaker 2: fill the back of our roster. So I'll give you
Speaker 2: those taglines in just a second here, but let's get
Speaker 2: into the four different categories of players that are my
Speaker 2: guys for twenty twenty six auctions. By way of introduction
Speaker 2: with this topic today, I want to talk briefly about
Speaker 2: Jackson Smith and Jacoba because I ended up with him
Speaker 2: on a lot of teams last year. My two most
Speaker 2: rostered receivers were JSN and DeVante Adams last year, and
Speaker 2: Adams of course worked out because he scored eleventy billion touchdowns.
Speaker 1: But and might I note that I'm hearing the.
Speaker 2: Regression birds out and they are crazy again about DeVante Adams.
Speaker 2: I understand that he had a supreme runout with his
Speaker 2: touchdowns last year, but let's not pretend that Davante Adams
Speaker 2: doesn't score touchdowns. And when people say regression, it kind
Speaker 2: of drives me nuts because regression means different things for
Speaker 2: different people. The term regression means that the person's going
Speaker 2: to come back to the mean, but that doesn't mean
Speaker 2: they're going to come back to the NFL mean. Or
Speaker 2: even the mean of certain types of players. They come
Speaker 2: back to their own mean, and DeVante Adams has scored
Speaker 2: double digit touchdowns for most of his career, So a
Speaker 2: guy that scored fourteen, it's not that crazy. Maybe he
Speaker 2: comes back to ten and yeah, maybe he's not a
Speaker 2: super valuable receiver, but he's not being drafted like one.
Speaker 2: So don't forget that when we talk about regression. But
Speaker 2: I get off track a little bit because I wanted
Speaker 2: to talk about JSN, largely because I had him on
Speaker 2: so many teams. Last year, I won zero titles with JASN,
Speaker 2: which makes me laugh.
Speaker 1: I kind of love it.
Speaker 2: It's kind of like when you quadruple up near the
Speaker 2: bubble and then you still end up bubbling in a
Speaker 2: poker tournament. It didn't get me anything, but I made
Speaker 2: perhaps the one of the best calls of my entire
Speaker 2: fantasy career, and certainly one of the best calls of
Speaker 2: my fantasy analyst career. And I met a lot of
Speaker 2: you out there are saying, dude, we really didn't hear
Speaker 2: you talking about JSN.
Speaker 1: That much, and you'd be right.
Speaker 2: And one of the things that I want to talk
Speaker 2: about today is that I want to own that I
Speaker 2: want to own the fact that I didn't hype up
Speaker 2: Jasn enough. And the reason is not because I didn't
Speaker 2: like him. It's because I didn't realize what kind of
Speaker 2: price I was going to get for him. I didn't
Speaker 2: talk about him because I assumed he was going to
Speaker 2: be too expensive in my drafts, and I kept getting
Speaker 2: him for way too cheap of a price. So in
Speaker 2: every draft I went into, he ended up as my
Speaker 2: wide receiver too. And I thought going into drafts I
Speaker 2: was going to have to pay wide receiver one money
Speaker 2: for him, and I ended up getting him as my
Speaker 2: wide receiver too. So why am I talking about this? Well,
Speaker 2: the lessons super important, and that's how I want to
Speaker 2: lead into talking about all these player evaluations today, is
Speaker 2: that the reason I didn't bang my drum for JSN
Speaker 2: was simply a matter of I couldn't predict how my
Speaker 2: home leagues, and most of my leagues were I ended
Speaker 2: up with him, were going to just tank the value.
Speaker 2: And I'm not saying that he was twenty one dollars,
Speaker 2: but in every single circumstance where I landed JSN in
Speaker 2: an auction, he was my wide receiver too. I got
Speaker 2: him sometimes in the upper twenties, mid thirties, low thirties.
Speaker 2: I was getting JSN for way too cheap for the
Speaker 2: role he was expected to have. Now, I didn't know
Speaker 2: he was going to break out the weight did. I
Speaker 2: just thought he'd be a great wide receiver too, because
Speaker 2: I thought he was going to have no problem hitting
Speaker 2: eighty or ninety catches, like he was just going to
Speaker 2: get a ton of targets. And that's exactly what happened.
Speaker 2: But I didn't know that until I got in the room.
Speaker 2: And so what's the lesson. The lesson is, you can
Speaker 2: do all this preparation and all this prognosticating and you
Speaker 2: might just be wrong about who's going to go for
Speaker 2: what values. I'm wrong all the time. I go through
Speaker 2: the summer and I say to myself, boy, this guy's going.
Speaker 1: To be cheap.
Speaker 2: I'm going to have him on every team, And I
Speaker 2: have that guy nowhere because it's just not true. He's
Speaker 2: just not cheap like I thought he was going to be.
Speaker 2: And so what you have to do. The lesson here
Speaker 2: is not, hey, you're going to be wrong if this
Speaker 2: stuff's impossible. The lesson is, know what you think about guys,
Speaker 2: and know what you think about value for certain types
Speaker 2: of players. That's the entire rub of auctions is getting
Speaker 2: in that room and figuring out, hey, oh my gosh,
Speaker 2: this is cheaper than I thought. I need to go
Speaker 2: for it, or hey, this is not working out. This
Speaker 2: guy is consistently more expensive than I wanted him to be.
Speaker 2: I had no idea what kind of asset he.
Speaker 1: Was going to be.
Speaker 2: I just knew that he was too cheap, and then
Speaker 2: I got him. So that's something just keep in mind.
Speaker 2: Being player agnostic, all of this stuff has really rolled
Speaker 2: into how I got the deal on JSN. And so
Speaker 2: what I want you to take away from this is
Speaker 2: just that there are a lot of lessons and a
Speaker 2: lot of things that can be lined up and just
Speaker 2: that one single player from last summer. So I want
Speaker 2: to talk about like twenty different players today and I'm
Speaker 2: hoping we're going to find some more lessons in there,
Speaker 2: and I'm hoping we're going to find some more narratives
Speaker 2: that we can exploit heading into our auctions so that
Speaker 2: I can bang the drum for a guy like JSN
Speaker 2: or the breakout of a guy like JSN, And I
Speaker 2: hope I hit that for you. This summer, because, like
Speaker 2: I said, I have one of my best years and
Speaker 2: it was largely because of some hits like Cook, like JSN,
Speaker 2: like DeVante Adams, and I hope that we can bang
Speaker 2: the drum for those guys again this summer.
Speaker 1: Let's do it.
Speaker 2: Here are the four categories of guys I'm looking at
Speaker 2: for my auctions this summer. Number one is a category
Speaker 2: that I usually refer to as arbitrage plays, and I'm
Speaker 2: not sure that I love the term anymore. You know,
Speaker 2: I stole the term from David Dodds if anybody remembers
Speaker 2: him from football guys back in the day, but he
Speaker 2: was an amazing auction drafter. Loved having a conversation with
Speaker 2: that guy about auctions anytime, and he coined the phrase
Speaker 2: arbitrage plays where you're getting players that are being drafted
Speaker 2: essentially at their floor, where they have essentially asymmetric upside.
Speaker 2: And I like those plays and those are some of
Speaker 2: my favorite plays to try to isolate before we get
Speaker 2: to auctions. So I don't know if arbitrage is correct,
Speaker 2: but asymmetrical arbitrage, whatever you want to call it. For
Speaker 2: ease of description, I'm just gonna call my favorite floor plays, okay,
Speaker 2: and these aren't my favorite floor plays because I believe
Speaker 2: these guys just have a nice floor. I believe these
Speaker 2: guys have immense upside, but they're being drafted at their floor.
Speaker 2: So let's not confuse the tagline. The tagline is my
Speaker 2: favorite floor place. I've got six different guys that I'm
Speaker 2: looking at right now that I believe are just being
Speaker 2: drafted way too low. And I don't know why that is,
Speaker 2: and that may change. The steam on these guys may change,
Speaker 2: but I think these guys are being drafted.
Speaker 1: Way too low.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about six different guys I consider to be
Speaker 2: my favorite floor place right now. Number one is Davante Smith,
Speaker 2: and I've talked about him all summer already. I'm going
Speaker 2: to keep banging the drum. I don't believe that the
Speaker 2: Eagles are a super conducive offense to high volume. I
Speaker 2: get that, and I also don't believe that the Eagles
Speaker 2: want to throw the ball a lot, and they still
Speaker 2: have a really good defense. I understand the warts, and
Speaker 2: I believe that those warts are why Davante Smith is
Speaker 2: not going higher, and I think he should be going
Speaker 2: higher right now. On football guys, their ADP has him
Speaker 2: as wide receiver fourteen. They have him going for about
Speaker 2: twenty six dollars in an auction. Now I know that
Speaker 2: their numbers are they're essentially like an algorithm that generates
Speaker 2: numbers based off of our projections. And they're also let
Speaker 2: me just remind you all that anytime you see auction numbers,
Speaker 2: generally whatever program is spitting those out is accounting for
Speaker 2: the fact that there's only X number of dollars to
Speaker 2: spend in any draft room, and they're accounting for that
Speaker 2: and saying that all these players after this line are
Speaker 2: going to go for a dollar. But that's not actually
Speaker 2: how it works in a draft room, because yes, that's
Speaker 2: going to happen at some point where the money runs out.
Speaker 2: But oftentimes players will get a spike or they'll get
Speaker 2: a corresponding depression and price because of what's happening in
Speaker 2: the draft room. And I don't believe in generating numbers
Speaker 2: like that. I believe in generating numbers by saying, what's
Speaker 2: this guy worth in a vacuum? Forgetting everything else, forgetting
Speaker 2: how much money is in the room, what do I
Speaker 2: think this guy's worth in a vacuum? And when I
Speaker 2: see twenty six dollars in DeVante Smith. I think that's
Speaker 2: way too low. He went for thirty three dollars in
Speaker 2: the mock we did the other night. I just think
Speaker 2: twenty six is too low, and I don't think he's
Speaker 2: going twenty six anywhere. Last year alone, AJ Brown had
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty one targets. DeVante Smith had one
Speaker 2: hundred and thirteen. And look, Smith is a really good receiver.
Speaker 2: He came out of college as a phenom. He's been
Speaker 2: good every time they featured him. He's only had one
Speaker 2: season where he's over one hundred and thirteen targets in
Speaker 2: his career, and in that season, he had one hundred
Speaker 2: and thirty six targets, ninety five catches, twelve hundred yards,
Speaker 2: and seven touchdowns. So one time he got an elite
Speaker 2: target share and he was a top six wide receiver.
Speaker 2: So let's not forget that. If this guy gets one
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty targets, he's going to easily outperform his
Speaker 2: wide receiver fourteen ADP easily. And in that season where
Speaker 2: he had all those yards, because of the one hundred
Speaker 2: and thirty five targets, he finished as the wide receiver
Speaker 2: fourteen in PPR points per game. But he was the
Speaker 2: wide receiver nine overall, so you can cut that however
Speaker 2: you want it. But right now he's wide receiver fourteen
Speaker 2: and ADP again. That's why he's a floor play. That's
Speaker 2: why he's an arbitrage play. That's why he's an asymmetrical play,
Speaker 2: because I think you're drafting him right now at his
Speaker 2: floor and I think he's got a men's upside.
Speaker 1: Number two. RJ. Harvey. You know, I didn't expect to
Speaker 1: like RJ.
Speaker 2: Harvey when it came into the summer, but we're doing
Speaker 2: the thing again with the narrative, and I got to
Speaker 2: just tell you that I'm turning off my brain when
Speaker 2: it comes to RJ.
Speaker 1: Harvey.
Speaker 2: And you're gonna love category number two, by the way,
Speaker 2: because we're talking about something similar to that. But I'm
Speaker 2: keeping Harvey in category one because I think it's a
Speaker 2: little bit ridiculous to say, well, he got a bunch
Speaker 2: of receiving touchdowns and he was super efficient and he
Speaker 2: ran pure. Yeah, all that stuff's true, but he also
Speaker 2: came into a difficult offense. To learn Sean Payton's offense,
Speaker 2: you have to get Sean Payton to trust you he
Speaker 2: doesn't trust people easily, and he had to come in
Speaker 2: and pick up the slack for when Dobbins got hurt,
Speaker 2: and he did it very well. And now everybody's talking
Speaker 2: about Jonah Coleman and a number one. I don't think
Speaker 2: Coleman's going to line up for RJ. Harvey's role. And
Speaker 2: I think that they're trying to protect JK. Dobbins because
Speaker 2: he gets hurt it year and he's going to be
Speaker 2: coming back from a Liz Frank injury. So I'm not
Speaker 2: necessarily sure that R J. Harvey is going to lose
Speaker 2: a bunch of touches here. In fact, I would expect
Speaker 2: his role to grow a little bit. And what's crazy
Speaker 2: is from week eleven on he was the RB ten
Speaker 2: in PPR League seventeen points a game. He's currently going
Speaker 2: as the RB twenty nine. Football Guys has him as
Speaker 2: a seven dollars player. I think that's crazy, not that
Speaker 2: he's seven dollars but or not that their price is wrong,
Speaker 2: because I think their price accurately reflects the market, but
Speaker 2: him going RB twenty nine, What the hell happened that
Speaker 2: we think he's RB twenty nine?
Speaker 1: What?
Speaker 2: I don't get it? Yeah, he was at the goal
Speaker 2: line guy. Last year, Dobbins was the goal line guy.
Speaker 2: He still caught passes on third down and he was
Speaker 2: still the guy that they wanted to go to in
Speaker 2: those situations. I don't understand it. He finished off the
Speaker 2: season as the RB ten. I'm not expecting RB ten.
Speaker 2: I'm expecting RB seventeen, RB nineteen, RB twenty nine is nuts.
Speaker 2: And if you can get him for seven dollars, he
Speaker 2: might even be cheaper than that. But I got him
Speaker 2: for ten bucks. If he's my RB three, great, if
Speaker 2: even better if he's my RB four, which I think
Speaker 2: is easily accomplished in an auction room. And that's why
Speaker 2: I love auctions, by the way, because you can get r. J.
Speaker 2: Harvey as the RB four, and if he blows up man,
Speaker 2: your team just took off there with your RB four.
Speaker 2: And that's the next guy I want to talk about
Speaker 2: is a similar type player, and that's one Day Robinson.
Speaker 2: One Day Robinson last year, of course, benefited from the
Speaker 2: Molik Neighbors injury. He benefited from the fact that their
Speaker 2: wide receiver corps is pretty bad there in New York,
Speaker 2: and it's a much better wide receiver corps in Tennessee.
Speaker 2: I get that, but he has slipped all the way
Speaker 2: to wide receiver forty six. You know what you have
Speaker 2: to score to be wide receiver forty six? Ten point
Speaker 2: four points a game, ten point four points a game.
Speaker 2: He came in and had fourteen PPR points per game
Speaker 2: last year. Now I believe he ended up as wide
Speaker 2: receiver thirteen. Maybe I don't know exactly, but off the
Speaker 2: top of my head, but I think he was wide
Speaker 2: receiver seventeen in points per game, which is not stellar.
Speaker 2: It's not amazing. It's not a league winner. But he's
Speaker 2: going off the borders wide receiver forty six. I don't
Speaker 2: understand that whatsoever. I know there's competition. I get the warts.
Speaker 2: He's got Carnal Tate ahead of him, he's got Calvin
Speaker 2: Ridley behind him. He's got two second year guys that
Speaker 2: are going to try to steal touches. He's got a
Speaker 2: second year quarterback in cam Ward that we don't know
Speaker 2: can play the position at a high level. There's a
Speaker 2: lot of hurdles there, But at wide receiver forty six, do.
Speaker 1: We give a crap about the hurdles wide.
Speaker 2: Receiver forty six? Say that again, he's a low end
Speaker 2: wide receiver four right now that I just I don't
Speaker 2: get it again. You can have him for five to
Speaker 2: seven dollars in an auction and that's the kind of
Speaker 2: player that makes your roster all right. Player number three
Speaker 2: is a running back and his name is Josh Jacobs.
Speaker 2: Now there is a huge caveat to this comment. If
Speaker 2: you I want to check out my current opinion on
Speaker 2: Josh Jacobs over on the Patreon, you can do that
Speaker 2: just four bucks a month. Bantasy football lawyer, I'm Drew Davinportan,
Speaker 2: and I prove this message. But Josh Jacobs was RB
Speaker 2: seven and points per game. If you take out Week seventeen,
Speaker 2: we've only got four carries. And don't forget he was
Speaker 2: hurt over the last third of the year when they
Speaker 2: were giving Emmanuel Wilson work and spelling it more. But
Speaker 2: he's their unquestioned goal line back. He was RB seven
Speaker 2: and PPR points per game. His price right now has
Speaker 2: to be completely about the domestic violence allegations and nothing else,
Speaker 2: because there is no reason this guy should be going
Speaker 2: as cheap as he is. Football guys has him at
Speaker 2: twenty seven dollars. If you walk into an auction and
Speaker 2: someone hands you Josh Jacobs for twenty seven dollars, just
Speaker 2: take it and don't look back. He is being drafted
Speaker 2: at his floor right now, and if the allegations turn
Speaker 2: into something worse before your draft, then you know it's
Speaker 2: no problem. I don't think something's going to happen in
Speaker 2: the middle of September or the middle of November from
Speaker 2: the NFL. Now, if he has more problems, we can't
Speaker 2: control that. But as far as the decision goes, I
Speaker 2: think it's going to come before the season, and I
Speaker 2: don't really think that he's going to be impacted this year,
Speaker 2: whether they file charges or not. So whoops, let that
Speaker 2: slip out. But the point is it's a huge caveat
Speaker 2: with Jacobs, and I get why the ADP is low.
Speaker 2: I think that's going to creep up in August, so
Speaker 2: we need to watch that one closely. But right now,
Speaker 2: it's silly how low he's going. All Right, The next
Speaker 2: guy is a name you're all familiar with. Everyone say
Speaker 2: it together with me. We love Kyron Williams. Folks, I
Speaker 2: am so tired of talking about Kyrien Williams. I promise,
Speaker 2: and I promise you that I can almost hear you
Speaker 2: groaning through the speakers because you're tired of hearing about
Speaker 2: Kyrien Williams as well. But I have to talk about
Speaker 2: him because the narrative is once again out of control.
Speaker 2: He's currently going as the RB fifteen off the board. Now,
Speaker 2: this is a guy. He has never finished that low
Speaker 2: in fantasy football since his breakout. Ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever,
Speaker 2: ever ever has he finished that low in fantasy football.
Speaker 2: And the only argument that I can hear from people
Speaker 2: is that, oh, Blake Korm's going to start taking over.
Speaker 2: And let me just tell you something, No, Nah ain't happening.
Speaker 1: Here's why.
Speaker 2: My friend Duyen McFarland over at Fantasy Life has a
Speaker 2: really cool utilization tool and it shows you when running
Speaker 2: backs and receivers play their snaps and how many routes
Speaker 2: they run, all that kind of stuff. Here is why
Speaker 2: I know Kymen Williams is not going anywhere. Last year,
Speaker 2: Williams played ninety five percent of the two minute snaps,
Speaker 2: he played seventy two percent of the long down and
Speaker 2: distant snaps, and he played seventy three percent of the
Speaker 2: short down to distant snaps. Now, if everyone really believes
Speaker 2: that Blake Korm is about to take over. Why because
Speaker 2: Cayen played all the law and short down distant stuff. Essentially,
Speaker 2: Blake Korm is a between the twenties grinder. Now if
Speaker 2: it's his drive, and this is something that you have
Speaker 2: to get used to. If you have Kyron, it's going
Speaker 2: to be frustrating because if it's Koram's drive and they
Speaker 2: score on that drive, he's not coming out of the
Speaker 2: game for Kyron Williams and vice versa. But I think
Speaker 2: it's interesting that the splits from last year weren't different
Speaker 2: than they weren't as different as I thought they would be.
Speaker 2: Williams still got fifty nine percent of the carries inside
Speaker 2: the five, and I expected to see Williams have worse
Speaker 2: stats over the second half of last season, But from
Speaker 2: weeks one to seven, Kyron Williams averaged fifteen point seven
Speaker 2: PPR points per game. After that, from weeks eight to seventeen,
Speaker 2: Blake Korum started playing more and more, getting more and
Speaker 2: more touches. That's why I cut the split there. That's
Speaker 2: when Korum started playing more. And guess what Kyron Williams
Speaker 2: averaged with the first seven weeks fifteen point seven from
Speaker 2: weeks eight to seventeen fifty teen point nine. I bet
Speaker 2: you didn't expect to hear that, because I didn't expect
Speaker 2: to see that. He averaged more PPR points per game
Speaker 2: when Korum started to play than he did before. So
Speaker 2: it's a small sample size. We don't need to take
Speaker 2: anything away from that other than Kyin Williams is not
Speaker 2: going away. Sean McVay trusts him, the offense trusts him.
Speaker 2: He's going to play in the high leverage situations, which
Speaker 2: is short and long, down in distance and two minute drives,
Speaker 2: and he's going to get the goal on carries when
Speaker 2: he's in there on the drives where they score. That's
Speaker 2: going to be a luck factor. But I don't think
Speaker 2: it's lucky that he keeps turning in ten touchdowns in
Speaker 2: top twelve PPR finishes and yet we're drafting him at
Speaker 2: running back fifteen. Go get him on your team, enjoy
Speaker 2: the profit.
Speaker 1: Move on. Okay.
Speaker 2: The last guy I want to talk about is a
Speaker 2: tight end, and it's somebody that I haven't been super
Speaker 2: high on really in any season of his career, but
Speaker 2: right now the price is just right. Sam Laporta. Unfortunately,
Speaker 2: he's making a little bit of a run up the
Speaker 2: ADP boards. I don't love it as much as I
Speaker 2: used to. So we're gonna keep paying attention to that
Speaker 2: because if we get some glowing reports in camp that
Speaker 2: he's feeling great, that everything's good with his back, that
Speaker 2: I think that's going to continue to rise. And that's
Speaker 2: unfortunate because we may have to beat off of that.
Speaker 2: But right now, what I know is this, in his
Speaker 2: rookie year, he finishes the tight end one, the tight
Speaker 2: end three in points per game, but he's a top
Speaker 2: three guy or the top tight end on the board.
Speaker 2: The next two seasons, even the injury season, he finishes
Speaker 2: the tight end nine in points per game. He's being
Speaker 2: drafted right now as the tight end eight. I think
Speaker 2: that's the definition of the floor play. He wasn't right
Speaker 2: last year with the back look. I understand back injuries
Speaker 2: are nothing to mess with, but I think it sounds
Speaker 2: like a really fun plan to go into the draft
Speaker 2: and just get a rock solid tight end one. I
Speaker 2: think you could go in and get somebody like Travis
Speaker 2: Kelcey really cheap, and then you can turn around and
Speaker 2: get Laporter really cheap. In these drafts, full PPR drafts
Speaker 2: where you're watching some the top tight ends go for
Speaker 2: more money. You can just wait a little while and
Speaker 2: then when people start running out of money, they don't
Speaker 2: care about bidding on Sam Laporta or Travis Kelcey. It's
Speaker 2: very possible you could walk out of your auctions with
Speaker 2: both of those guys for like eight bucks ten bucks.
Speaker 2: I would love to make that play, because if Laporta
Speaker 2: blows up, you've got a great player. If not, Kelsey's
Speaker 2: going to be a steady guy who's going to get
Speaker 2: you PPR points every week. My point is, Kelsey, excuse me.
Speaker 2: My point is Laporta is being drafted at his floor
Speaker 2: right now. If he plays tight end, nine are better
Speaker 2: is a lock, and that's about where he's being drafted.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, we're getting pretty deep into the show.
Speaker 2: But I want to move on to category two. Category
Speaker 2: one was the most substantial one. It's the one that
Speaker 2: I want to go through the most conversation about those
Speaker 2: six players. The other categories are going to go a
Speaker 2: little bit quicker. I'm going to go a little bit
Speaker 2: more lightning round fashion. But I just want to point
Speaker 2: out some things and some guys that I'm paying attention to.
Speaker 2: So Category one was my arbaitra plays, my floor plays
Speaker 2: the guys I think are being drafted at their floor
Speaker 2: that have immense upside. Category two is my close your
Speaker 2: eyes guys. By the way, have you noticed my tags
Speaker 2: all summer long are just ridiculous? Oh, I'm leading into
Speaker 2: it now because when I started it with guys that
Speaker 2: are scoring points are scoring points, I just realized I
Speaker 2: gotta just make this as stupid as possible for the
Speaker 2: rest of the summer. So I'm leading into the dumb
Speaker 2: taglines and they're just gonna say what I want them
Speaker 2: to say with no pretense. I'm not gonna have chat
Speaker 2: GPT write me up a cool headline.
Speaker 1: This one is.
Speaker 2: Called the close your eyes guys because I want you
Speaker 2: to just close your eyes and draft these guys and
Speaker 2: just stop worrying about shit. Okay, stop worrying so damn much.
Speaker 2: We spend so much time picking apart these players, and
Speaker 2: these guys I'm gonna you about right now. These four
Speaker 2: players are extremely talented wide receivers that all have a
Speaker 2: lot of the same things in common and a lot
Speaker 2: of the same complaints from people for why they're not
Speaker 2: drafting them. But I think all four guys you just
Speaker 2: need to close your eyes and draft them. And that's
Speaker 2: why they're might close your eyes guys, because I'm not
Speaker 2: going to sit here and tell you that their profile
Speaker 2: is rock solid, that these are guys you have to
Speaker 2: have on your team. I just think these are players
Speaker 2: that could explode, and if they do, you want to
Speaker 2: have some shares of them. So I think you need
Speaker 2: to turn off your logic brain, your analytics, your advanced analytics,
Speaker 2: whatever other garbage that you're shoving into your ear holes
Speaker 2: to tell you not to draft these talented players. Get
Speaker 2: rid of it. Just close your eyes and forget about it.
Speaker 2: Has anybody seen the movie Billy Madison from a long
Speaker 2: time ago. I'm probably dating myself because this movie is
Speaker 2: older than I realize now. But at the beginning of
Speaker 2: the movie, when he finds out he wasn't going to
Speaker 2: take over his father's company, his father says, you know,
Speaker 2: what's the why is there? You know any reason I
Speaker 2: should do this? Why should I hand over the company
Speaker 2: to you? And you know how am I going to
Speaker 2: do that? And Billy says, I don't know. Just close
Speaker 2: your eyes and hand it over. That's what I want
Speaker 2: you to do. Close your eyes forget about all the
Speaker 2: crap and just draft these guys. Okay, Number one is
Speaker 2: AJ Brown. We've already talked about him. I'm not going
Speaker 2: to go into detail about this because we've already done it.
Speaker 2: The first three guys I'm going to mention all have
Speaker 2: the same major argument in their favor, and that is
Speaker 2: that they're playing with the best passer of their career.
Speaker 2: So AJ Brown is no exception. The Patriots last year
Speaker 2: loved to throw the football. I think they're going to
Speaker 2: continue to do that, and I think there's going to
Speaker 2: be a very definite top two there of AJ Brown
Speaker 2: and Romeo Dobbs. Just put AJ Brown on your team.
Speaker 2: If he's broken down, if he's the guy that we
Speaker 2: saw last year that can't get separation or gives up
Speaker 2: on routes, whatever, whatever, you know, I don't care. I
Speaker 2: don't care because I think it's very possible he goes
Speaker 2: nuclear with ninety eight catches for sixteen hundred yards and
Speaker 2: eleven touchdowns. I think that's within his range of outcomes.
Speaker 2: So close your eyes draft A J.
Speaker 1: Brown.
Speaker 2: Number two is Jalen Waddle, and again I think he's
Speaker 2: playing with the most talented passer of his entire career.
Speaker 2: Now I'm going to stop here right there before I
Speaker 2: hear you guys complain about Bo Nicks. I don't think
Speaker 2: bo Nicks is a great NFL quarterback, I really don't.
Speaker 2: But he's got a couple of things on his side.
Speaker 2: Number one, he's got a strong arm, and number two,
Speaker 2: he's got a great offensive mind behind the offense in
Speaker 2: Sean Payton. Jalen Waddle is in the best offensive situation
Speaker 2: he's had since his second year in the league. And
Speaker 2: let me tell you, the first two years in the league.
Speaker 2: He got one hundred and forty two targets his first
Speaker 2: year and caught one hundred and four balls. His second
Speaker 2: year he got one hundred and seventeen targets and threw
Speaker 2: up thirteen hundred and seventy yards. So when he got
Speaker 2: some concentrated efforts to get him the ball with a
Speaker 2: quarterback who was back then still actually reasonably good too,
Speaker 2: it was a few years ago, he blew up. He
Speaker 2: was awesome. This guy is not old, he's not over
Speaker 2: the hill. You can't make the same argument about Wattle
Speaker 2: that you can't about a J. Brown because Wattle's not old,
Speaker 2: he ain't washed up. He ain't even close. He's going
Speaker 2: to be in the best offensive system he's ever been in. Well,
Speaker 2: let me say, let me put an asterisk there because
Speaker 2: Mike McDaniels systems are I love him, but they were
Speaker 2: designed to get Tyreek killed the ball, not Jalen waddle
Speaker 2: So I want to draw the distinction there. I think
Speaker 2: he's going to be in the best offensive system he's
Speaker 2: been in. For him, I think he's going to be
Speaker 2: the alpha over Courtland Sutton. I still think something's being disrespected,
Speaker 2: and I think they're.
Speaker 1: Both going to eat.
Speaker 2: But he's got the best quarterback that he's had since
Speaker 2: maybe his sophomore year in the league. Everything is pointing
Speaker 2: up towards is pointing up for Jalen Waddell. I just
Speaker 2: think he's a guy again that is mentally talented. He's
Speaker 2: getting an upgrade almost everywhere. This feels like, why wouldn't
Speaker 2: I be on Jalen Wonnell third guy? I want to
Speaker 2: talk about his DJ Moore And I tell you what,
Speaker 2: I feel like I've spent my entire career saying I'm
Speaker 2: not a DJ Moore guy, while just constantly drafting DJ Moore.
Speaker 2: But I think the problem is there's a difference between
Speaker 2: the public's perception of More in my perception of him
Speaker 2: because I'm not a Djmore guy, but I think he's
Speaker 2: better than other people think he is. So I'm constantly
Speaker 2: drafting him because he's just too cheap. And when I
Speaker 2: go into an auction and he's twenty two bucks, I'm like, Okay,
Speaker 2: I'll take him. I don't love it, but okay, he's fine.
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna say again, when his DJ Moore ever
Speaker 2: had a high level quarterback. I mean, Kayleb Williams was
Speaker 2: decent last year, but he had a lot of accuracy
Speaker 2: problems and more clearly didn't fit in Ben Johnson's scheme.
Speaker 2: He had games where he just wasn't involved. Do you
Speaker 2: think that the Buffalo Bills are not going to involve
Speaker 2: DJ Moore? Who the hell else are they going to
Speaker 2: throw the ball to? Khalil Shaker is a nice receiver,
Speaker 2: but we saw what his ceiling. Djmore is going to
Speaker 2: be peppered with targets. Let's not forget our stuff on
Speaker 2: Diggs Lesson. Now, I know that the offense is different
Speaker 2: than the one that dig stepped into when he changed
Speaker 2: to Buffalo, but Joe Brady will feed his top guy,
Speaker 2: and I believe that DJ Moore is set up for
Speaker 2: a nice season. And once again, I'm just gonna say
Speaker 2: it again. All three of these guys have their best
Speaker 2: quarterback throwing to them that they've ever had in their career.
Speaker 2: So just don't make it any more complicated. Don't make
Speaker 2: it any more complicated, don't shove any more stuff in
Speaker 2: your ear holes. Just draft Djmore.
Speaker 1: He's cheap.
Speaker 2: People don't even like him. People are like, Eh, it's
Speaker 2: not that dude, he's got a washed Just stop it,
Speaker 2: stop it, Okay. The last guy I want to talk
Speaker 2: about is is Kristian Watson. And I can hear Chad
Speaker 2: and Ed Heath. I can hear you guys laughing your
Speaker 2: butts off right now. Knock it off. Christian Watson is
Speaker 2: a valid conversation that we need to have right now.
Speaker 2: He's going as the wide receiver twenty nine, and he
Speaker 2: could qualify as a floor play because I believe the
Speaker 2: arbitrage play here is super simple. If the guy plays,
Speaker 2: he's gonna smash wide receiver twenty nine. But I'm putting
Speaker 2: him here because of the fact that we all know
Speaker 2: the problems that he has and because we've never actually
Speaker 2: seen Green Bay feed and alpha receiver enough to make
Speaker 2: him a guy that I want to say, Okay, he
Speaker 2: can be wide receiver nine or he can be wide
Speaker 2: receiver eleven. I still think his upside is limited, but
Speaker 2: the Packers did trim their their wide receiver tree this offseason,
Speaker 2: and I do think Watson's in line for a bigger role.
Speaker 2: And one thing that rich Reebar pointed out that I'm
Speaker 2: hanging my hat on is that they did have him
Speaker 2: running a more diverse route tree when he came on
Speaker 2: the second half of last year. And if that's the
Speaker 2: case and he can hit the easy button on some
Speaker 2: catches during the games, that it's going to inflate his
Speaker 2: PPR upside and not just rely on him being three
Speaker 2: for eighty in a touchdown. So I love the play.
Speaker 2: And the reason he's not in Category one is because
Speaker 2: I do think it takes a leap of faith to
Speaker 2: draft Christian Watson at this point. He's never been a
Speaker 2: guy who's been able to hold up over a full
Speaker 2: season and have a full year where he can say
Speaker 2: I was healthy the whole year and produce the whole season,
Speaker 2: whether in college or the pros. So it takes a
Speaker 2: leap of faith. But if you can get him for
Speaker 2: fifteen sixteen eighteen bucks in your auctions, I think it's
Speaker 2: a deal that you got to try to take. Now,
Speaker 2: I said, there's four guys AJ Brown, Jalen Waddle, DJ Moore,
Speaker 2: Christian Watson, but I'm going to name one more as
Speaker 2: an honorable mention. That's a Mecca Abuka. And the reason
Speaker 2: I put him in this category is because again, I
Speaker 2: can see all of the narratives developing with Egbuka, and
Speaker 2: I understand everyone's concerns, but they let a target hog
Speaker 2: and Mike Evans go and Egbuka is clearly the best
Speaker 2: receiver on the roster.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: I think Jayleen McMillan's going to get some run and
Speaker 2: Chris Godwin's going to get his But Agbuka is a
Speaker 2: really good player, and that's all you need to think about.
Speaker 2: And that's why he's going to close your eye's situation
Speaker 2: because I just think that there is a lot of
Speaker 2: red flags, and I understand the red flags, but I
Speaker 2: still believe in talent, and I believe in Baker Mayfield,
Speaker 2: believe it or not. And I think I'm just gonna
Speaker 2: close my eyes and try to get a book on
Speaker 2: some teams. All right, we're running a little bit long.
Speaker 1: What are surprised, Drew, You're running known shit your mouth.
Speaker 2: We're gonna roll through these last two categories and you're
Speaker 2: gonna be downe and be like, holy cow, that was fast.
Speaker 1: You're ready to say, Holy cow, let's go. Let's do it.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna run my FWM as fast as I freaking can.
Speaker 1: Let's go.
Speaker 2: Category number three is some nominations of guys that I
Speaker 2: really don't want on my teams this fall. These are
Speaker 2: guys that I'm just gonna call out in the middle
Speaker 2: rounds when I want to waste a nomination because I
Speaker 2: don't want players that I want to be nominated because
Speaker 2: I'm saving money or I'm saving time. These are some
Speaker 2: guys that I don't want on my teams. Number one
Speaker 2: is mister Kyle Pitts. I'm so sorry everybody. I'm sorry
Speaker 2: Pitt's truthers, but I really believe in the splits with
Speaker 2: him without Drake London last year and their quarterback situation
Speaker 2: is ass. I am not in on Kyle Pitts because
Speaker 2: of the splits last year. I think he is what
Speaker 2: he is by now, and we have that conversation all
Speaker 2: the time. I just want to say it once again,
Speaker 2: let's quit trying to make players things that they are not.
Speaker 2: Kyle Pitts is not the guy that we saw that
Speaker 2: was fed a bunch of targets at the end of
Speaker 2: last year. He's the guy that we've seen in the
Speaker 2: rest of his career. Take the small sample size of
Speaker 2: the big sample size and tell me which one you
Speaker 2: think is going to play out this season. The next
Speaker 2: guy I want to talk about is Cede Lamb. Oh,
Speaker 2: that's crazy, that's hot.
Speaker 1: What a hot take? Are you a hot takesman? Man?
Speaker 1: I'm really not.
Speaker 2: But the conversation I have with Jim Coventry earlier in
Speaker 2: the summer really got me to thinking about Lamb versus Pickett,
Speaker 2: and I think it's a little bit crazy that people
Speaker 2: have not given us the discount on CD Lamb. So
Speaker 2: he's going to be a guy that I call out
Speaker 2: somewhat early, maybe second or third round, if I'm feeling
Speaker 2: like the room is too hot. Now somebody else is
Speaker 2: going to call him out for me at some point.
Speaker 2: But it's just a guy I don't want on my
Speaker 2: team at this point. I think he's a nice low
Speaker 2: end wide receiver one or high end wide receiver two
Speaker 2: with Pickens involved. That's just how I see his value,
Speaker 2: and I don't know that I want to spend fifty
Speaker 2: dollars on CED Lamb, so I want somebody else to
Speaker 2: spend forty six forty eight fifty to fifty one dollars
Speaker 2: on CD Lamb. I agree with Jim Coventry that the
Speaker 2: years of the one hundred and fifteen catches or one
Speaker 2: hundred and five catches and sixteen times, that stuff is
Speaker 2: not coming back. I don't believe that's coming back. While
Speaker 2: George Pickens is there. I'd much rather have Pickens. I'm
Speaker 2: gonna get Lamb out there and see if I can
Speaker 2: have him go for forty six forty eight fifty bucks.
Speaker 2: Another guy that I'm gonna probably have on zero of
Speaker 2: my team's is Treveon Henderson. I know a lot of
Speaker 2: you out there love him and believe a second year breakout,
Speaker 2: but I'm here to tell you Mike Vrabel does not
Speaker 2: give a rats ass about your second year breakout. We
Speaker 2: should have seen a move to Henderson at the end
Speaker 2: of last year if that's what the coaching staff wanted
Speaker 2: to do. Instead, what they have on their hands is
Speaker 2: a guy that they know as an explosive player that
Speaker 2: they want to rotate in and they want to play.
Speaker 2: But he's not ever going to be the quote unquote
Speaker 2: guy ahead of Rimandre Stevenson. Last year, after Week fourteen,
Speaker 2: when you'd expect them the Week fourteen was there by
Speaker 2: you'd expect them to start working in Henderson a little
Speaker 2: bit more. Stevenson played sixty six percent of the snaps
Speaker 2: the rest of the way. I mean, you know, their
Speaker 2: trend was not there at the end of last year.
Speaker 2: I don't know why we think the trend's gonna happen
Speaker 2: this year. All Right, I'm out on Trevon Henderson, especially
Speaker 2: at his price. He's not super expensive, and if he's not,
Speaker 2: then okay, maybe I'll take him as an RB four.
Speaker 2: But I'm just I'm just not that interested. The last
Speaker 2: group of guys are some guys that I'm just going
Speaker 2: to group together as injury problems. But injury problems from
Speaker 2: the standpoint that not that I think to myself, oh,
Speaker 2: these guys are injury prone, but from the standpoint that
Speaker 2: I don't think fantasy gamers are spending enough time talking
Speaker 2: about how these guys could be absolute rocks on your roster.
Speaker 2: They could just weigh you down and prevent you from
Speaker 2: being nimble and light on the waiver wire. And these
Speaker 2: guys are Malik Neighbors, Alec Pierce, Quin Shawn Judkins, and
Speaker 2: Cam Scatibo. None of these guys are remotely appealing to
Speaker 2: me at their current prices. Now, Pierce has dropped a
Speaker 2: little bit because people have seen and heard about the
Speaker 2: problems he had. But folks, they are really underplaying that
Speaker 2: issue with that Alec Pierce. If you want to see
Speaker 2: something that's going to bother you and make you not
Speaker 2: draft him at all, go google a picture of him
Speaker 2: and take a look at his right leg and his
Speaker 2: left leg. It's scary, it's not good. They're just completely
Speaker 2: different looking, and that means that he still has a
Speaker 2: long way to go in his recovery. They're not saying
Speaker 2: very good things either. They're not like, oh yeah, he'll
Speaker 2: be there week, like they're saying cautious stuff about Alec Piers.
Speaker 2: Be careful and don't forget you have a double complicating
Speaker 2: factor with Piers because he's got Daniel Jones also recovering
Speaker 2: from a major leg injury, a significant problem with then Achilles,
Speaker 2: So he's got two hurdles.
Speaker 1: Milak Neighbors. We've already talked about this.
Speaker 2: I'm not going to be labor the point, but the
Speaker 2: guy had a pretty complicated knee surgery that needed a
Speaker 2: cleanup just a couple of months ago. That's a problem.
Speaker 2: And I don't think he's starting the season on the field.
Speaker 2: I think he's at least going on the put for
Speaker 2: four to six games at least, and then he's got
Speaker 2: a three to five week ramp up. When do you
Speaker 2: think you're going to see the real Milik Neighbors? And
Speaker 2: are you still going to be in your league at
Speaker 2: that point? And by the way, we might not see
Speaker 2: the real Milik Neighbors until twenty twenty seven. So I
Speaker 2: don't know that I want to take that bet. Where
Speaker 2: he's being drafted, he's still the wide receiver thirteen right now, Like,
Speaker 2: come on, just get out of here with that nonsense.
Speaker 2: If you want to take him and you want to
Speaker 2: stick him on the back of your roster and not
Speaker 2: consider playing humntil week ten, be my guest. But that's
Speaker 2: difficult to do. It's easy to say when you're drafting,
Speaker 2: it's difficult to do. And as far as the two
Speaker 2: running backs go Quinn Shawn Judkins and Cam' Kataboo. They're
Speaker 2: good players, but they're too expensive. They're going as mid
Speaker 2: level RB twos. And I just don't think that you
Speaker 2: recover from these kinds of nasty leg injuries that easily.
Speaker 2: I think people are not factoring in their recovery from
Speaker 2: injury on all of these guys. They're not going to
Speaker 2: be on my teams unless I get a significant discount. Okay,
Speaker 2: so category number three is just guys I really don't
Speaker 2: want excellent tagline. Once again. In category number four, boring
Speaker 2: roster finishers. And unfortunately, you know, I thought about sticking
Speaker 2: this in the middle of the show because you're supposed
Speaker 2: to end strong, but I think you guys like hearing
Speaker 2: this stuff, so I just left it at the end.
Speaker 1: Boring roster finishes.
Speaker 2: It might be a little bit of a boring topic,
Speaker 2: but I'm going to get through it in a lightning
Speaker 2: round because we are pushing. I'm here and I want
Speaker 2: to make sure that we get through some of these players.
Speaker 2: Number one is Chris Godwin. He looks like he's going
Speaker 2: for about ten eleven bucks on football guys. He's wide receiver,
Speaker 2: forty right now. I love that bet. I love that bet.
Speaker 2: I don't want to pay eighteen bucks for Chris Godwin,
Speaker 2: but I also believe that it takes a while to recover.
Speaker 2: We saw Godwin wasn't himself last year. I like taking
Speaker 2: the bet on Godwin. I want to keep that under twelve.
Speaker 2: I'm hoping it's under fifteen. I really don't want to
Speaker 2: pay fourteen bucks for Chris Godwin. That's not really what
Speaker 2: I want to do, but I can see the utility there.
Speaker 2: I just think he's in the in the range where
Speaker 2: he can have seventy eighty catches and if he really
Speaker 2: picks up where he left off before that nasty injury
Speaker 2: with the departure of Mike Evans, I think we could
Speaker 2: see a Chris Godwin that is a boring guy to
Speaker 2: have at the back of your roster, but who is
Speaker 2: really helpful in fantasy football. The second guy I want
Speaker 2: to talk about is Jalen Warren. And you know, I'm
Speaker 2: really rethinking this one after my conversation with Drake because
Speaker 2: he likes Rico Dowdell. But I'm going to come back
Speaker 2: to the same thing that I say all the time.
Speaker 2: I have a lot of faith in people who do projections,
Speaker 2: and a lot of the projections I'm seeing are forty
Speaker 2: to fifty catches for Jalen Warren. I believe that wholeheartedly.
Speaker 2: I think he's I don't think the Steelers decided that
Speaker 2: Rick rico'dowell was their past catching guy. Now I believe
Speaker 2: Drake when he says that he can do it, and
Speaker 2: I think he can do it, and there are times
Speaker 2: last year that it really frustrated me that the Panthers
Speaker 2: didn't give him more receptions. So I think he can
Speaker 2: do it, but I'm not saying that that means he
Speaker 2: is going to do it. I think Warren slides back
Speaker 2: into the pass catcher role. Maybe they take some pounding
Speaker 2: off of Warren on the early downs, but he's still
Speaker 2: going to catch forty or fifty passes. I think that
Speaker 2: makes him a boring guy at the back of your roster,
Speaker 2: but a guy I want as solid depth, especially deeper leagues.
Speaker 2: The next guy is Jacoby Myers. Boy, oh boy, this
Speaker 2: is a hard one because I understand and when I
Speaker 2: talk to Rich Reebar, I listened to smart people like that,
Speaker 2: and rich said something that stuck with me. He said,
Speaker 2: of the three Jacksonville wide receivers. Myers is guy I'm
Speaker 2: willing to let go because he really didn't cross fifteen
Speaker 2: VPR points even with Jacksonville when they were humming last year.
Speaker 2: And I get it, like he's absolutely right, but he's
Speaker 2: super cheap right now. If he's going for around six
Speaker 2: seven dollars eight bucks, like whatever, that's so cheap for
Speaker 2: a guy of his caliber. And I heard something interesting
Speaker 2: from Jacksonville beat writers recently who said that usually when
Speaker 2: Hunter rotates in, the guy that's going to come off
Speaker 2: the field is Brian Thomas, possibly Parker Washington. They never
Speaker 2: mentioned Jacoby Myers coming off the field because they love
Speaker 2: what he does and he's so reliable. He's just he
Speaker 2: hits his marks. He's just the true pros pro and
Speaker 2: they paid him for a reason. They like Jacoby Myers.
Speaker 2: I'm not saying he's going to be some fantasy beast,
Speaker 2: but I think he's once again going to be underrated.
Speaker 2: He's going to be playing for a very good offense,
Speaker 2: something he's never had before because he's been a Raider
Speaker 2: his whole career. He steps into a full season with
Speaker 2: that offense an off seat with Liam Cohen's offense, and
Speaker 2: they're they're praising him for always hitting his marks and
Speaker 2: being a pro guys Jacoby Myers, it's super easy get
Speaker 2: him as your wide receiver five six, whatever. It's easy
Speaker 2: in an auction. The next guy I want to talk
Speaker 2: about is Romeo Dobbs, and I might as well couple
Speaker 2: him together with another guy by the name of Quinton Johnston,
Speaker 2: because both of these guys are going pretty low. Johnston's
Speaker 2: wide receiver forty seven, Dobbs's wide receiver fifty. I firmly
Speaker 2: believe that Dobbs is going to be the number two
Speaker 2: wide receiver in New England. I don't think there's any
Speaker 2: doubt about that he's going to be the number two.
Speaker 2: And in Quentin Johnston, I believe he's going to be
Speaker 2: the number two. I understand people want Trey Harris to
Speaker 2: do stuff, and it would really bother me if Keenan
Speaker 2: Allen signs back with the Chargers. I don't think that's
Speaker 2: going to happen. But people love Trey Harrison and I'm
Speaker 2: not saying I'm going to be right about this. Trey
Speaker 2: Harris might come on and he might be good, but
Speaker 2: they repeatedly talk about Quentin Johnston's yack abilities. That's the
Speaker 2: stuff he did in college. I think he was miscast
Speaker 2: a little bit as a rookie, and I think Mike
Speaker 2: McDaniel knows how to use him. And I think wide
Speaker 2: receivers forty seven's crazy. He's much better than that. After
Speaker 2: he got hurt, he didn't look as good. The offensive
Speaker 2: line fell apart, everything fell apart for the Chargers last year,
Speaker 2: and I think if things go well, we're going to
Speaker 2: see the guy that we saw in the first three
Speaker 2: or four games of the season. And I think he's
Speaker 2: got top twenty four upside. I really do. And he's
Speaker 2: getting some steam right now. So we're going to pay
Speaker 2: attention to Johnston's ADP because he is getting some steam.
Speaker 2: The last couple of guys I want to talk about,
Speaker 2: I don't want to end on a boring note, but
Speaker 2: a couple of tight ends that I think are flying
Speaker 2: under the radar. Number one is Brenton Strange. He came
Speaker 2: back from injury last year and finished the season in
Speaker 2: his final stretch as the tight end twelve. So when
Speaker 2: he was healthy at the end of the year last year,
Speaker 2: he was a tight end one. He's not being drafted
Speaker 2: as a tight end one. He could easily go in
Speaker 2: category one, where he's a floor play. I think you
Speaker 2: can take Strange and hope that he has some upside.
Speaker 2: I'm putting him here as a boring roster finisher because
Speaker 2: you can get him for a buck. There's no reason
Speaker 2: you need to be paying more than one or two
Speaker 2: dollars for Brenton Strange. And I think that he has
Speaker 2: tight end twelve and up potential. I don't think he's
Speaker 2: going to be tight end three, but I think he
Speaker 2: can be tight end nine to twelve over a full
Speaker 2: season if he stays healthy. And the other guy that
Speaker 2: I want to talk about is Chig a con Quo.
Speaker 2: I've always believed in his athletic ability, and that's what
Speaker 2: everyone believes in, but he's never been able to put
Speaker 2: it together as a pass catcher. But he hasn't been
Speaker 2: in a good situation. And I'm not sure that Jayden
Speaker 2: Daniels is that awesome, but you know what, he likes
Speaker 2: the tight end. He made a fantasy relevant guy by
Speaker 2: the name of zach Ertz last year, and we don't
Speaker 2: think a guy with a Conquo's athletic ability has the
Speaker 2: chance to really break the position with a guy who
Speaker 2: likes throwing to the tight end. I think it's silly
Speaker 2: to not take some shots on a con quo. So
Speaker 2: the boring roster finishers Chris Godwin, Jaalen Warren, Jacoby Myers,
Speaker 2: Quentin Johnston, Romeo Dobbs, Brenton Strange, and Chig a con quo.
Speaker 2: All right, well, that's going to do it. I feel
Speaker 2: like I didn't really get to talk about much stuff
Speaker 2: this week because I'm normally weaving this tapestry of theory
Speaker 2: and trying to layer stuff on top of it, and
Speaker 2: this week I just went through and just rammed a
Speaker 2: bunch of players down your throat. So I hope you
Speaker 2: enjoyed it. I think this is an episode, like I said,
Speaker 2: that's popular every summer, and so I really want to
Speaker 2: go through some of these players, and I want to
Speaker 2: follow these guys as we get into August. I'm going
Speaker 2: to try to do a quick recap episode at some
Speaker 2: point in early August where we're talking about these guys
Speaker 2: and seeing whether or not I'm still in or out.
Speaker 2: But again, if you want to get my innermost thoughts
Speaker 2: about this stuff and get more detail about it, you
Speaker 2: got to be in the Patreon Fantasy Football Lawyer Patreon
Speaker 2: just four bucks a month. I think it's worth it,
Speaker 2: so get over there and sign up. Thank you so
Speaker 2: much for joining me today for this conversation about my guys.
Speaker 2: We've got four categories, my favorite floor plays with high upside,
Speaker 2: my guys that I just want you to close your
Speaker 2: eyes and draft, my guys that I don't want to
Speaker 2: draft that I think are boring but excellent roster finishers.
Speaker 2: So that's been a fun conversation.
Speaker 1: Don't forget.
Speaker 2: You can find me on Twitter at Drew Davenport FF
Speaker 2: on the Patreon at Fantasy Football Lawyer. Just four bucks
Speaker 2: a month to get over there and check that out.
Speaker 2: Don't forget about the salary Cap summit coming up on
Speaker 2: August second, third, and fourth. If you want to be
Speaker 2: in one of those salary cap leagues and get in
Speaker 2: the Patreon, you're gonna have a much better shot. And
Speaker 2: don't forget we'll have a listener league. We'll talk about
Speaker 2: that in early August. And of course, don't forget my
Speaker 2: serious show is starting on July the twelfth. It's just
Speaker 2: about ten days away. Don't forget to tune in Sunday
Speaker 2: the twelfth from three to five on Sirius XM will
Speaker 2: be my first show with Drake, so stoked for that
Speaker 2: as well. So we got a lot of exciting stuff
Speaker 2: coming up. Thank you so much for being a follower
Speaker 2: a supporter. I really really appreciate all of you, every
Speaker 2: one of you who interacts with me, listens to the show,
Speaker 2: and supports my work. It makes all the long hours
Speaker 2: worthwhile and I'm having a blast doing this job and
Speaker 2: I have all of you to thank for it.
Speaker 1: So that's going to do it for this week.
Speaker 2: The Auction Brief is adjourned, and I am out. The
Speaker 2: Auction Brief is adjourned. That'll do it for this week's episode.
Speaker 1: See you next time on the Auction Brief.