Speaker 1: What is up, Fellasiko's I am Dan Valley once again
joined by mister Mort Jensen of the NBA podcast, fame
of Yahoo Sports, fame of HBO Max Fame, and of
course of only Fans celebrity. We're here to talk about
two big thematic things, and that would be which of
the playing underdog type teams since the East play in
situations and technically set do we think are the most dangerous?
And then also we'll get to Grant and I discussed
the proposed tanking solutions from the Board of Governors meeting
last week. The NBPA, the Players Association, has their own
set of proposals that Mort and I, time permitting, are
going to try and parse through and deliver what we
fin our thoughts on those before we dive in here, though,
more to talk about some underdogs playing teams, whatever you
want to call them.
Speaker 2: How the heck are you? I am well, for at
least the next one hour and fifty two minutes, I'm
gonna be okay because I'm in my thirties. Still, that
won't be the case after that timeframe, so we'll see.
Speaker 1: That's rough and we can't have anyone over the age
of forty on this podcast.
Speaker 3: So you're not gonna be invited back after this.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's totally fair. Honestly, I'm expected to get the
pink slim immediately.
Speaker 1: We're nothing but ages over at hard what eye it's
gonna be. It's freaky because this is gonna go live after.
Speaker 2: You turn forty, I know, right right, we'll see.
Speaker 1: People are gonna be hearing your thoughts after your turn forty.
You're having an existential crisis just thinking about God.
Speaker 2: That's awful. Yeah, yeah, well, thank you for putting that
on on the Spotlight.
Speaker 3: Well, happy birthday to you. You don't look a day
over thirty six.
Speaker 2: Oh that is that is you know you're joking, but
that I take that to heart. I appreciate that because
I was recently asked if I was over fifty, and
I'm I'm just gonna say, well, it was a young person.
Like they don't they don't have this ability to grasp
age all that well, but they think twenty eight is
ancient pretty much. Yes, But I will say usually I
don't get to churt by anything because I've heard the
worst things, like look, I write for Yahoo, I get
death threats Like that's just a thing. Because you know,
when you write national stuff, you get death threats. That
doesn't hurt as much as someone implying that I'm over
the age of fifty. That hurt. That was That was
like that I went to bed and that was on
my mind, like, god, damn it.
Speaker 1: I can assure you you don't look fifty. If that's
that person is all sorts of unhinged, less unhinged, or
maybe this is unhinged. And so we're looking at this
through the lens of how are these teams or they equipped?
Could they actually win a playoff series? Pull up and upset?
We might be talking about a six seed in the
Eastern Conference again, but the bar is higher in the
Western Conference. Is there a team that you want to
start with that just sticks out to you?
Speaker 2: Yes, in the East. See. So I struggle even going
first on this because I want to pick the Raptures
and I want to pick the Hawks, like right off
the bat, because I know that we're going to get
into the Hornets. The Hornets are probably going to take
up most of this episode, but I just want to
get into like, well they are because they're fun and
they're kind of dangerous now, which is good. I like it.
But like I was not a Red Let's start with
the Raptors. I was not a Raptress guy coming into
to the season. I thought their acquisition of Brandon Ingram
last trade deadline was weird all things considered, I didn't
think that that was a need that they filled. I
was wrong. I mean, yes, it's only ten games over
five hundred, but that is far better than I anticipated.
I think it's far better than many people anticipated. They've
also been sort of injured, like RJ. Barrett has missed
twenty four games quickly as miss games like everyone on
the benches miss game like also Yaka Pertles missed like
what half the year something along those lines. Even Colin
Murray Boyles's miss games. So like they're winning despite injuries,
Like I'm just I'm very intrigued by this team. I'm
not shutting the door on them actually coming in and
making the postseason and even giving someone a real fright,
Like this just feels like it's working. They have so
many wings who can initiate offense, like Emmanuel Quickly is
coming along a little bit more like they have post defense.
They have a wild man in santhro mam Keila Shweeli
coming off the bench. I mean, Who's just it took
you way longer to talk about, right. I'm very proud
of this is because I'm turning forty day and I
have patience. Now Jacobe Walters is doing well, like I
just this team is fun and it's interesting and it's
so much better than I thought. And I love being wrong.
So kudos to the Raptors for, yeah, making me be
wrong about them. I appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're probably right where I expected them to be.
Leading him in the regular season, I was higher on
them than most. I don't even remember what my win
total was on them, but I had them, I think
as a top six team in the East where I come.
All the stuff you said, true, I really just want
to see this entire front court rotation healthy. At the
same time, now Calamary Boils is out, so let's see
what it looks like when you have him and Mamu
and Yakka Peertl who I'm not a Yaka Peardle guy.
But after talking to samson Folk for two years running
on the Raptors Look Ahead and then he recently recorded
a fantastic podcast with Lewis Atsman where they were just
talking about Yaka Peartle basically is such an imperfect, flawed player,
but when you have so many deficiencies on your own team,
the stuff that he does becomes more important because the
Raptors are not a consistent shooting teams, like the spacing
Yaka Purtle gives you on his screens is a huge deal,
just as being one example. With this team, though, I
just don't trust what their offense is going to look
like in the playoffs, especially if we're going to look
down the stretch of close games. They've been bottom ten
in crunch time offense for the season, and that's probably
after ticking up a little bit recently. I think, look
the way that like Emmanuel quickly kind of just the
peaks and valleys he goes through with his three point shooting,
this team isn't necessarily built to survive that. I think
that it's good that it does feel like they sort
of have this answer to who is that secondary perimeter
player who's most important, And it's Jacoby Walter where it
was coming in, could it be Grady Dick. We went
through stretches where it was James in battle this season,
so they have figured those elements of their rotation out
this team. I love the Scottie Barnes, Colin Murray Boyles
again when he's healthy. Look in the front court. Scotty
Barnes has been a defensive monster. I think he's gonna
be on my first team All Defense this year. Haven't
sat down, and really I need to give that more
thought because we're doing awards later this week. I just
when I look at their offense and how relyant it
can become on especially in the half court of a
Oh we need to go to Brandon Ingram and hope
he creates something out of nothing.
Speaker 2: We're even seeing that a little bit with R. J.
Speaker 1: Barrett or Manual, Like they're just I don't know they
can be, but I just don't trust it. The results
haven't been there at a high enough level for long enough.
I think once you get to the playoffs, going up
against certain defenses, if they're gonna pull I mean even
I don't love them in a Cleveland or a New
York matchup in the first round, if it's if it's
the four or five, if they end up having a
face of Boston or Detroit, forget about it. Even Detroit
doesn't have Kate. I don't know if I trust Toronto enough,
because Detroit's still gonna really come at you defensively. I
just don't trust their playoff stock, even though they're an
interesting team. But I think i'd be pretty surprised if
they want a playoff series.
Speaker 2: It's interesting because I have the same concerns about them
that I have at Detroit. Look, I'm not going to
speak down to what Detroit's doing because considering where they
were two years ago, I am very much enjoying what's
going on right now. But I have them a little
bit as a paper tiker at this current stage. Like
I think their offense is also all kinds of worrisome,
even with Kate, because they're spacing and c atrol. She's
much like the Raptors have issues of you know, shooting
from be behind the arc like those two in a
once one matchup, like at least you get play making
from the wing, which won't really you don't really get
a whole bunch of that in Detroit, for example, So
like that would be would that be the best? Like
nineties simulation throwback series the Raptors and the Pistons like
that series would average like one hundred and eighty points
per game.
Speaker 1: I think there's a yeah, you're probably right, although there's
a chance that a Magic Piston series would be too
yeah closer, right, Yeah, Yeah, that's good. That's also the
whole Kate Cunningham out of all of it all. I
don't mean to discredit the Raptors was the thing. I
think they would lose against the Pistons scenes without Kate Cunningham.
But the Pistons are winning or hanging with OKC when
they don't have Kate Cunningham, and I just the Raptors offense.
I haven't seen enough from them for for long enough
to believe in it.
Speaker 2: And that's fair.
Speaker 1: The team the team I want to nominate, and we'll
get to our will each pick at the end of
all this will wrap it up and say who you
think is kind of the most dangerous The team that
we've been trying to talk about, but the timing just
hasn't worked out for a while now, the Atlanta Hawks,
the question is, and rightfully so are the Atlanta Hawks
for real? I know people, it's fun to kind of
cite what they've been doing since March. If you just
look post All Star, they've won seventeen of twenty top
seven offense, top three defense, and they're not getting you know,
you dig into the defensive numbers and they're not getting
super lucky on opponents shooting from beyond the arc, which
is which is a great sign. I think some of
the key differences for them is having CJ.
Speaker 3: McCullum. I think in one of their core lineups.
Speaker 1: I know Zacharly reached, he's been shooting the ball better
of late, but for someone like a dyce In Daniels
or even a Jallen Johnson, it just gives you more
spacing to work with and so you can try different
things in the half court. It just opens up driving
lanes for a Nikeile Alexander Walker as well, and so
I think CJ. McCollum has provided that lift. The other
thing in David Lee, who covers this team for Substack,
does a great job of doing it. Had pointed out
that they've gotten more creative with their half court screening
and involving Dyson.
Speaker 2: Daniels, who is.
Speaker 1: Also just deciding to up his three point volume over
the past week or two, is just taking more of
them after really not taking I think he's made more
than half of his three pointers for the season over
the past couple weeks, and again he hasn't made a
ton for the year. But if you're using him as
a screener and getting him space to work as a finisher,
where he's improved in the restricted area by over ten
percentage points compared to pre All Star break, that ends
up being a huge deal for your offense, and they
have some really interesting defensive combinations they can roll out
when you have him in Nikkeiyle, Alexander Walker, on Yekka
kung Wu, who also probably not receiving. If you were
to build a lengthy most improved Player ballot, I think
there's a case for three Hawks players to be on
there in Nikkeile, Alexander Walker, Janalon Johnson, and on Yekka
kung Wu, who his emergence as this just viable floor
spacer has been absolutely huge for their off when you
don't have a Trey Young there as well. What's also
helped is that the ke Alexander Walker, the Hawks are
in like the seventy something percentile of offensive efficiency when
he plays without Johnson or Trey Young on the floor.
I know Trey Young's no longer there, but just to
winnow down that personnel even further. The other thing to
like about the Hawks, They've got Jonathan kaminga going it's
he doesn't seem like he's holding onto the ball as long.
When he does, he's seeing some of those shots go in.
Looks more engaged as a rebounder. What I keep coming
back to is two things. The schedule's been They've they've
had some better wins of late, but the schedule has
been pretty light overall. We can't trust a lot of
this has happened in March. How much of it do
we trust in March? And the other thing that I
really don't trust about this team, which feels weird to
say about the Hawks.
Speaker 2: They have to go if they're out of transition.
Speaker 1: They got to go through an awful lot of trouble
to generate high quality looks. It's it's fun to watch
the way that they will use Dyson Daniels and the
interplay between him and Jalen Johnson and Ky Alexander Walker,
but it's almost exhausting to have to go through all
those motions just to make things work. And I think
Dyson Daniels's limitations are a huge part of that. And
so they're another team where I think a lot of
people would question their defensive metal hang into the postseason.
I find myself kind of wondering if you take away
their transition attack or you force them to lower that
frequency by just a notch or two. I don't know
if they have enough in the half court as good
as ni Kele, Alexander Walker is, as good as Jalen
Johnson is as valuable as CJ.
Speaker 2: McCollum can even be.
Speaker 1: I don't know if they have enough to win four
games in seven tries against. I mean, at this point,
how high could they rise? They could get to fifth,
so could they beat the Calves? Could they beat a Knicks?
I like, I don't think so. No.
Speaker 2: I would agree that that's a difficult path for them
as well. And I've also made the mental note that
they've done this over the course of primarily March, also
part of February. But let's be real, everything past the
calendar year is a little murky, right, especially after the
trade deadline. I do think this will be an extremely
important stretch of basketball for them if they do make
it to the playoffs. Like, I'm not even going to
be focusing all that much on Oh, could they win
a series potentially, Like I just need to see them
in a situation where opponents can adjust game to game
where they're forced to actually produce in a half court setting,
maybe to identify like what avenues can we get into,
Like how do we actually approach this series? Like how
do we go up against TEMX. To use Dyson Daniels
as a screener as someone who's like a you know,
a connector is something I find interesting, But it does
mean you can't really play him all that much. With
Jonathan Kuminga because I know he's shooting forty percent from three,
it's an eleven game sample size, first and foremost, he's
not that type of shooter, Like, there are some issues there,
so you're kind of struggling a little bit to find
the right personnel to make all those pieces work. That said,
I am coming back to something that you and I
talked about at length when this trade that went down,
the Tree Young trade. C J McCollum is just so
perfect for this team. And I remember when I saw
this trade go down immediately, I loved it for Atlanta
immediately because they never needed someone who was as ball
dominant as trade. They needed someone who can handle the offense, yes,
but someone who will also pull quickly move the ball
like weave himself into the fabric of the offense. CJ
does that. I think we've seen on Yego Kungu as
well do that far better than before this year. It
so like, I do think there's an avenue they can
pull on. But you're right, the fact that they haven't
showcased it in the regular season is kind of concerning.
So I kind of want to throw this back to
you because this is something I've been wondering. Jalen Johnson.
Obviously it's going to come back to him. He's the
team's best player by a fairly wide margin. Like we know, issue, right,
I would say so yeah. I mean I'd be shocked
if not. He's just too good. I mean, twenty three,
ten and eight on good defense and getting to the
free throw line, hitting thirty five from three, which is
far better than last year. I just love what he's doing. But,
like you, the idea of coming into the postseason and
trying to bank on what he does primarily now, which
is taking the ball out the backboard and just sprinting
down the floor, that's not going to be an avenue
for him that he can explore quite as much in
a postseason setting, So like, what do you think he
needs to do? Do you? Because I'm like kind of
hesitant on going the route of, oh, he should be
the primary passer, he should be like the guy who
sets it up. He should like go try to average
twelve assists or should he be more of a spot
up shooter. Like I just can't figure the goddamn roll
out for him when things start to slow down. I
just don't know kind of what to do with him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's tough because I think you mentioned his improved
three point shooting and the fact, I mean he's a
thirty six plus percent above the break ye that leads
me to kind of think, right, like maybe he would
be better as like kind of because he can do
what then Dyson Daniels cannot, And like Nikaile, Alexander Walker
as the screener is like kind of fine as a
secondary action, but the appeal of using Jalen Johnson as
almost like a big in those scenarios is right there.
I think it really just depends on the personnel, right,
and it's I think there's been enough interplay between him
and Dyson Daniels that I'm okay with them using Jalen Johnson. Okay,
it's on the ball, and if the end game is
to get Diyson Daniels the ball and then it's getting
back to Jalen Johnson, is fine, But you even mentioned
how do you make that work between like those two
are they could be a concern or excuse me, Dyson Daniels,
Johnathan Minga could be a concern. Johnathan Kaminga and Jalen
Johnson could be a concern too when you're looking at
how defenses will guard them. They've both missed time, so
the sample size is skewed, but the offensive rating has
been bunk. When those two are on the court together,
I think it's only one hundred and something possession sample size,
but still that's something that they're going to need to
figure out.
Speaker 2: I ultimately think though.
Speaker 1: He needs to be on the ball in the half
court a majority of the time, I just don't see
who is the because it can't be Dyson Daniels. Like
I think the best way for him to create havoc
is okay, as they've used him as a screener more
often than he's ever been.
Speaker 2: Used as his career in his career this season.
Speaker 1: I guess that's not saying much because of the first
two years in New Orleans, but still something to note.
Who If it's not Jalen Johnson, who is it.
Speaker 2: It's CJ.
Speaker 1: McCollum or Nikkeil Alexander Walker. And I think at this point,
like you trust Jalen Johnson as a playmaker that more
than either of those two, by by leaps and bounds.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is where I think, you know, moving off
of Luke Canard could be a little bit troublesome because
one thing is just shooting, but the fact that he
could also run pick and rolls, which he actually did
at a fairly underrated level in my opinion, that's loosing
an aspect. They can't really go back into the car position.
So it's it's definitely going to be an an intriguing
series no matter what they end up in. Oh and
I say serious, I'm already putting in the in the
actual playoffs, I can hear regardless of what's going to
happen here, it's going to be the test, the test
for Jalen Johnson. That's He's had a lot of fun
in the regular season. Wow. Dost All year long. Now
it's going to be about him trying to figure out problems.
And I always think this is the most important and
intriguing part of a young player's career. We saw it
the same thing with Kawhi Leonard back when he was
a little bit younger, Like we had the same questions
about him, like, oh, when you get into the playoffs,
like how will you adjust? Turns out he just dialed
up the defense to eleven. I don't know if Jalen
can do the same, considering the offensive burden he has
their so like for him, it's probably going to be
more of a balancing act.
Speaker 1: I do think it probably helps him though that Ki
Alexander Walker has never been a better bailout option on
in the half court. And I don't know what I
mean as of now. Jonathan Kaminga is that and that
would be the ideal Jonathan Aminga, So that gives you
another option. It's just I don't know how much he
can play with Jalen Johnson Jonathan Ameninga, just like I
don't know, like Dyson Daniels and Jonathan, like, you're always
kind of in a situation where it feels as if
how many of your best players can play together. And
then the other thing is okay, Zachary Resiche has been
shooting better now, But are we dealing with sort of
a Jalen Green post All Star break situation? What does
that look like once they get to the playoffs, because
he is kind of blurs the lines between you know,
if you're just looking for someone to be more of
a compliment, like he fits Nikkei, Alexander Walker, Jalen Johnson offensive.
He's easier to fit than a Dyson or than a
Jonathan Kaminga, even if his ceiling is lower.
Speaker 2: Than those players.
Speaker 1: And just to our points of our concerns during this
hot stretch from them, they're thirteenth in half court offense.
Speaker 2: That's no great shakes.
Speaker 1: It's above average, but only by a hair, right, Who
do you want to talk about next, sir?
Speaker 2: So I think I'm just gonna go with the more
fun team, Like I could go with Philly and we
could talk about like em be playing well again and whatnot,
Like let's let's talk about the Hornets, man, Let's just
talk about the damn Hornets. You brought him up, not
made the record show. Here's the thing, I was never
a Hornets hater. I was a skeptic of them because
I had questions and I think rightfully so in terms
of how far LaMelo ball could take them. But he's
had so much help this year and now I think
he's found like the right place on the totem pole.
I think con Ka Nipple came in and has just
been the best lever to poll in terms of floor spacing.
You know, we're seeing Brandon Miller come in as well
and do this thing where he can play inside, he
can play outside. LaMelo can be a little bit more
juicy in regards to his spot. I just the makeup
of this team. I love it. They upgraded from Colin
Sexton to Kobe White. Coby White has just like he's
only played fifteen games there almost sixty points per game
in less than twenty minutes. It's ridiculous how much he's
just gotten off in terms of his shooting. And you
have the role guys like Josh Green TJ Saloon, both
of them also hitting a lot from outside. Like this
is a very spacing oriented team, which frankly in the
Eastern Conference specifically, when you have that many teams who
aren't necessarily great three point shooters, or great three point
shooting teams. That's an asset, that's a major, major asset.
Do they need something defensively? Hell? Yes, Do they need
more of a connector that probably isn't on the roster
as we speak? Also, yes, But I'm just going to
say the same thing as it did with Atlanta. This
is a young team. They're going to need a year
in the playoffs to get acclimated to that whole situation.
And at least it'll give us one hell of a
series if they make it, because they are playing fun
basketball and they're good.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's everyone's heard me site. But since Thanksgiving?
Speaker 1: Top six and both off and defense, and I think
the bigger thing is now. You could note they do
have a losing record during this stretch against top ten teams,
but they also have a top ten offense and top
seven defense against those teams, And so it's are they
actually profiling as a title contender? Yeah, the statistical profile
is sure, but no one's going to loop them into
that conversation.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: The only other players that I would add to so
when t John Salon's been injured, that's when we've kind
of seen Grant Williams come on and he's been kind
of a nice connector at both ends for them as well.
If Sion James is hitting his three pointers, which he
has been since the All Star Break, I think he's
at thirty eight percent on kind of whatever volume sub
three attempts. That dude's a defensive tank and we've seen
some really like good defense.
Speaker 2: He's just take He's just the way that he's built.
Oh my god, I know you're a fitness nerd, like
you have to be looking at James and going ah,
and then look at yourself out for work's going I can't.
Speaker 1: He's more of a tank than LaMelo balls, camouflage rap hummer.
Speaker 2: Oh, that's that's how good James is.
Speaker 1: They also, I mean we I'm everybody I'm sure wrote
off their center rotation and Mussa Diabate is just a
beast and here he plays with I think a level
of physicality that people don't fully appreciate, like the way
that he's able to fight on the glass or isn't
going to back down against some of these guys that
might look bigger and burlier than him.
Speaker 2: They've been able to.
Speaker 1: Now you look at the secondary center minutes and you
start to wonder can you get away with Ryan Colper,
how many minutes can he play in the postseason, even
though he's been good for them. But they are deep
and they can downsize if they want. When you look
at having a Grant Williams, or even if he's healthy,
a Tijon Salon, or if you even like a PJ. Hall,
there's a bunch of different things they could do. And
I really what I keep coming back to is the
offense is just gonna be fine because we've seen it
with LaMelo before and now you've give LaMelo a supporting cast.
And not only that, but even if you don't yet
trust Konkin Nipple or Brandon Miller as these secondary type creators,
which I think you should. But if you want to
go the play off an experience route or just the
overall in experience route, Kobe White is sitting right there
not doesn't have extensive postseason experience himself, but now you
have all these different versatile offensive options. But the thing
that I keep harping on is this team is so
smart defensively. I think if you give all the credit
in the world the Charles lean Is coaching staff and
the players as well, But if they're able to just
be competent on that end of the floor, which some
of that is gonna be if they're gonna let their
defense get set. They're in great shape already. But if
they're gonna be able to be competent on that end
of the floor, they're gonna be. There's not a team
in the Eastern Conference that they can't hang with across
six or seven games the way they've been playing of late,
and they've even some of the lineups without LaMelo on
the court have been finding your tread water. Offensively, I
think they're deeper than people realize. They're better defensively than
people realize. The IQ is just there. They have one
of the best. When you're looking at the expected effective
field goal percentage of teams when they're allowing opponent shots,
they're in like the top six seven during this stretch too.
And I keep saying during this stretch, but since Thanksgiving
is like two thirds of the season or whatever, like
we're talking about almost a sixty game sample size right now.
I don't know, you know, we talk about this with
It's been talked about with the Spurs, It's been talked
about with other teams in the past. How much weight
do you put in Okay, a lot of these guys
do not have a ton of playoff experience, or most
of them do not have a ton of playoff experience.
Speaker 2: There's kind of an element there.
Speaker 1: But when you look at the landscape of the East
short of the Celtics, just you know, and especially under
the circumstances with the Pistons, I don't know that there's
a team I'd be prepared to guarantee would be Charlotte
in a seven game series.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting you say that, because, as we know
in the postseason, it's really very matchup dependent. And I
am not saying that Detroit wouldn't beat a lot of
other teams, but I think specifically against Charlotte, that is
a team they would just come out and struggle with,
because even though they're so good defensively, the Hornets are
so potent offensively. They move the ball extremely quickly. The
way they get three point shots up at it like
they're not even thinking about it. Those shots are I
think sometimes teams, especially in the playoffs, can overthink they're
three point attems like is this a smart shot? Like
every position matters, Like this team is so young, and
they're just they're not gunshy whatsoever, which I think works
in their favor and their benefit, Like especially against it
team like Detroit. I'm not gonna sit here and say, oh,
because Detroit has the higher seed, they're gonna be automatically favorited,
Like I'm gonna go with the Hornets in that series personally.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what's tough with the Hornets is it
feels there's the there's a nixion element to them where
if they're three pointers aren't falling, you wonder how many
victories they're able to grind out because they don't have
who are you trusting to draw a bunch of fouls
if the game gets ugly here, you're not even throw it,
like you even throwing LaMelo into that equation? Oh no,
And like so it gets dicey there. But I totally
hear you and would echo you. But that that I think,
especially because of the the higher ceiling they have on
offense and there's variants there. Certain teams just don't feel
like Detroit being one of them, especially if Kaid's not
fully healthy or available, are they going to have the
offensive firepower to bridge the gap If Charlotte gets off,
it gets out to an early lead. But this is,
I mean, this has been one of that I wasn't
super low on the Hornets relatives of consensus. I think
I took the cliche stance of are they ever going
to get healthy? This is what they look like when
they're healthy, and it's pretty it's pretty damn terrifying, especially
because this isn't even close to what their final form
would look like. The ideal Hornets team just has either
a more fully realized version of someone up front, or
they've actually went and upgraded at least one of those
two front courts slots, presumably the four spot.
Speaker 2: The next team. Oh, it's my pick, it is. It
is tough.
Speaker 1: Let's see, all right, I'm gonna go to you mentioned
them before, Philly. Yeah, I just I think it just
comes back to what what if Joellenbid and Paul George
and Tyrese Maxie are all available at the same time,
And I mean, VJ.
Speaker 2: Edgecomb's been great this year.
Speaker 1: I don't trust them is the reason I'm picking them,
And it doesn't I guess it has to come back
to a health thing. But if you've seen enough from
this team, even when they're at full strength to say, Okay,
if they get in and they have to go, I mean,
the sixth seed is still in play for them.
Speaker 3: Do you trust them to beat the Knicks or the Calves?
Speaker 2: I don't think.
Speaker 1: I don't think I'm giving them a series against the
Pistons or the Celtics if they wind up having to
face one of those teams. The Knicks might feel a
little bit more realistic. Potentially the Calves as well. There's
just something so inherently distrustworthy about the Sixers. And maybe
it's because maybe it is the health stuff, like maybe
I'm just colored by that. But at the same time,
that is just a part of their story.
Speaker 2: And yeah, we.
Speaker 1: Could look at it and say, all right, what happens
when they have their four best guys available one that's
only been like three hundred and something minutes to this point.
Speaker 3: More they've actually been outscored in.
Speaker 1: Those minutes when they have Embiid, George Maxi, and Edgecomb
it's only by thirteen points, and when you break it
down by net rating, it's like a minus point six
net rating. But the offense has been just so so
in that time. They're scary on as a theory and
a concept. I just don't trust that they're going to
be able to fully actualize then the defense specifically, I
think the offense can reach a certain peak. I just
really don't trust the defense with the semi Embiid was
recently talking about them overhelping. But I also wonder how
much of a symptom what they do defensively at times
is look at the rotating carousel of personnel they've needed
to have on the court. How do you develop any
sort of continuity on defense where it feels like communit,
occasion and timing is just more critical than it would
be on offense to where you can count on a
Tyrese Maxi orn Embiid or George even vj Edgecomb.
Speaker 2: McCain, Oh wait, no, never mind, sorry, sorry.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Karmikle speaking, the Sixers can't be scary because they sold,
they sold, hi I jere McCain.
Speaker 2: Oh god, that was I mean, look, that's still to
me the funniest quote off the entire trade deadline. Like
that was wild. I'm sorry.
Speaker 1: You don't get to say we have too many guards
and then turn around and sign and play campaign.
Speaker 2: That's all I'm saying. I agreed. I think I'm with
you in terms of how can you trust this team
from a health perspective. But I'm also an optimist when
it comes to like talent level, and this is something
we must concede. If we're looking at the seventy six
ers through exclusively a talent filter, I think it's reasonable
to argue they might be the most talented, like just
in terms of raw talent in the East. The problem
is the the pieces are questionable fits, Like it's not
necessarily a great, you know, puzzle that that is gathered
by the end of it, like great into individual pieces.
Tyre's Maxy is amazing, and I think he's actually probably
the exception here. You know, we've always called Kevin Durant
like the best pluck and play player in NBA history,
and it's probably a little easier to do that as
a forward. I would argue that Tyre's Maxy is on
his way to becoming one of the best pluck and
play point guards we've ever seen, because that that dude,
I'm sure would work in any system, off ball, on ball, defense,
motor like everything. I'm just look at this.
Speaker 3: Look at the Philly systems alone that he's played in,
where it's Joel Embiid centric. Know was it James Harden
centric or no, it's Tyre's Maxie centric now, like he's
he's kind of already proven that he has.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he's outstanding. So like that's the one
player that you don't really have to worry about. But
then there's a drop off in that level, right because look,
vj Edgcomb has had a great year. I fully agree,
but we've also seen, because he's a rookie, a lot
of stretches where he has like four or five games
in a row where he does not look like you
know he does when he's on his highs. Like the
disparities between good games and bad games are fairly high.
Kelly Oupray, solid player has missed a lot of time
this year as well. Not the most consistent guy either,
well one, you know, one guy one day score twenty
five will have eleven in the follow up game and
bad defense, Like there's that, you know that the consistent
level with him and with them be and every time
he hears the ground, you're like, oh, like like hey,
Andre or Dominic come into the game. Right, It's just
I think it's tough and you you're playing with that
in the back of your mind all the time. So
it depends on like the Sixers themselves. Do they feel healthy,
do they feel confident? Do they feel as though they
have a share rhythm at this point in the season.
If they do, I haven't seen it yet, not to
the full extent, but I just can't ignore, like just
the raw talent level, which is just immense, even with
Paul George being worth what half his contract a third
of his contract, They're.
Speaker 1: Also they're also just so you throw out the contract
of it all, even if Paul when Paul George looked
just like a nervonic compliment. Here, they're so aside from center,
and that's when Joel Embiid is healthy, they're so positionally
small that it feels that there are moments in a
half court where it's, oh, they're just getting absolutely roasted
from beyond the.
Speaker 2: Arc or at the rim.
Speaker 1: And then also what probably doesn't get talked about enough
is the transition defense is meh.
Speaker 2: At best, and I don't know how.
Speaker 1: I don't know how you positionally game it to change that,
even if you have Joel Embiid, because at this point
he's not gonna help your transition defense. And then just
outside of that, if you have to go minutes without
him or you're gonna get even smaller on the court,
what is that gonna do? You know, you're looking at
rebounding or the share of opponent shots that are coming
at the rim in the half court, which they've bled
since the All Star break. There's laying a ton of
threes and a ton of looks at the rim, which
is not the ideal defensive shot profile to have.
Speaker 3: They're a tough team. I get the oh, what if
everybody's healthy?
Speaker 1: And maybe they will be because look, Paul George was suspended,
I wouldn't call Tyree's Max the injury prone if Joelle
be just available in the playoffs, Yeah, they're They've become
more interesting. I just I think that we might be
getting ahead of our skis with well, think about what
they're ceiling is at full strength, I just don't maybe
think it's as high, especially when you're looking at someone
like what is the team? So you to pick an
ideal matchup for Philly in the first round of the
playoff series?
Speaker 2: Who is it? And I can just go everyone here
you go.
Speaker 1: I mean, any of the teams that are in front
of them, they could feasibly play, right, and I think
with the exception of the Raptors and the Hawks, they're
not gonna end up playing but Celtics or Pistons.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're right. I think you're right. Like
like I think is it I'm not trying to pick
on Karl Anthony Towns, right, but like there's just this
mental advantage there at the center position immediately in the
Embiid Towns matchup. Like even Embiid, at like sixty percent
of himself, just has something on Towns, which I don't
think is even quantifiable necessarily, but he just gets into
that man's brain in somehow, some way and uses that
to his own advantage consistently. So I think that alone
is interesting. Love Brunson, but good luck trying to guard Maxie,
who is just so much quicker than him and who,
like again, New York not that deep. Again, I do
think there's a little bit more depth in Philly, although
it's like depth that hasn't been shaped.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I think if you're talking about if you're
looking at the injuries of what did Landry shammittt look like,
is Duce McBride is still gonna be heard at that point,
I could see you thinking the Sixers are deeper, But
I do think the Knicks are the deeper team. The
Sixers do have the higher end second well, I mean
because Joel Embiid is the second dairy Town. The Knicks
just they go through these motions of you never know
who their second best player is good from a night
to night basis, and they don't have a reliable second
best offensive player. Maybe you could make the case the
Sixers don't either, but I'll take stabs in the dark
with Paul George, vj Edgecom and Joel Embiid versus Carnton
Town's a Ogan and Obi and Michale Bridges in those roles.
Speaker 2: I do wonder if, just.
Speaker 1: Because of the when I was talking about the positional
size thing outside of Joel Embiid, if they might. They
probably don't want to get in a shootout with Boston,
but Boston isn't a team that's super huge because if
they're gonna play Vouch, you've won, as the Sixers, like
if Ivo is gonna be on the court, like you've won.
So Kaita is good, but after that it's you're dealing
with wild cards and guys who are going to be smaller.
Speaker 2: I'd be curious to know.
Speaker 1: What they and I think they've only played Boston once
so far right this season.
Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken, So that would be the other one.
Speaker 1: Uh, let's spotlight another team each who got for me
after the Sixers?
Speaker 2: Well, it's going to be a little depressing. But the
Orlando Magic, I don't want to talk about them. Let's
move on. You said, honest there, You're right? Should we
just move on? Should we just say screwed with the Magic?
We can?
Speaker 1: Their offense has outperformed at their defense since the All
Star Break, and both have been dogged.
Speaker 2: You know, I made this. I wrote this on Blue
Guy the other day and it was it was harsh,
but I don't necessarily think it's unfair. Right, Like, they
spent six years with the Vooch and Fortier Aaron Gordon trio,
and like I will give the Magic this they give
their seems like a real chance. They don't blow things
up until they feel like, okay, we've we've got actually
given this a lot of big enough sample size. They
spent six years trying to make that trio work. It
didn't go like so in twenty twenty one, they blew
everything to pieces. Now we're in twenty twenty six, five
years later, and they've gone full circle. Like again, I
appreciate that there are injuries. I truly I get it,
and that is going to be the first thing coming
out of the mouth of Magic fans, and rightfully so
that said, this team just does not fit Again. We
were talking about like the pieces in Philadelphia. Look that
puzzle looks a lot better than whatever fucked up puzzle
is looking like in Orlando. This is just and I
appreciate the talent level of these guys as well, but
the three point shooting is just so suspect. You can't
rely on it whatsoever. They're not a great rebounding team whatsoever.
Like they get a ton of points at the free
pro line every single game, and that's not something you
historically can count on in a postseason setting. Like I,
I just don't believe in this team. I'm sorry, I
am completely out and I say that as despite being
one of the biggest Anthony Black fans on the face
of the Earth.
Speaker 1: I love what he's done this year. But this roster's
just playing either. It's another injury that they're dealing with.
Speaker 2: The same I'm just basically hoping that he'll be back,
so I'm assuming that, but like, I just I don't
trust this team at all. I'm completely I don't think you.
Speaker 1: Can when they're like, you shouldn't be this relyant on
Javon Carter as we're entering April, is the is a problem,
and I think, look, but the one thing you got
to give them a shot out for is so you
kind of just look at not every iteration, but of
the lineups that end up playing the most minutes for
them or starting games, like they all end up as
like these demonstrative positives, but you're never strength together. Not
like I'm not even talking about Oh like the Franz Wagner,
that Core five lineup, It's okay, like the sugs Bane
Anthony Black, Wendell corn junor palomin in Carolina plus seven
prone hundred possessions. Oh, we're gonna put Tristan da Silva
in for Anthony Black plus ten points per one hundred possessions.
So you gotta hand it to them there. But it's
like you can't piece together. It feels like one they
did have that it was like post All Star break
or fell. Oh are they turning a corner here, look
at what Paalo's doing. But you can't put together a
long enough stretch with this team because one, I guess
another injury is always right around the corner. But but two,
it does feel as if the offense is always gonna
come back crashing down. And now you kind of look at, oh,
there's been some defensive regression here, and look missing Anthony
Black Isaac hasn't been there. Franz Wagner is pretty important
to like, like he can be pretty important. What they're
doing defensively is barely played this season. Excuses abound, But
even if you want to just leave it at that, it's, well,
how are you supposed to trust this team? I do
have a question, though, would you trust the Magic or
the Sixers more? Because I find myself a little really,
I found myself more more sold on the more sold
on our land.
Speaker 2: Up No so so, And I have a very simplistic
reason for why I'm trusting the Sixers over the Magic.
They have by far the better player, and he's the
guy with the ball in his hands who makes better decisions.
So and I think that just means so much more
in a playoff context. Like again, they can give Polo
the ball and ask him to do stuff and he'll
do fine. Doesn't have the same level of efficiency. He
doesn't have the same level of court division, he doesn't
have the same speed. He doesn't he doesn't have the
ability to go out and score to the same extent.
He doesn't have the ability to create his own jump
shots to the same extent as Maxi's. It's such a
different beast when your primary player has all of those
capabilities and the Sixers just have that, whereas the Magic don't.
Like if you're putting the ball in the hands of
Anthony Black or Desmond Baine, Okay, good, those guys are
perfectly reasonable guards. Jalen Sucks has been better as a
playmaker too, but none of them has the unpredictability and
the nature, generally speaking of a Tyrese Maxi, for example,
who can at times single handedly single handedly win you games.
I question whether the Magic, when things get tough, really
can hand the ball to someone and say it's take
us home.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair, that's really fair, and you have to
cake in the whole. Now we're starting to hear the
murmurings that Jamal Mosley's lost the locker room, there were
people advocating for them to Michael Malone him, yeah, a
couple of days ago, was they after they gave up
thirty one straight points they should So yeah, I mean,
look your twentieth in defense post All Star Break, when
opponents have only shot thirty four point four percent from
three during that stretch. It does there does have that
feel beyond injuries. It feels like something is rotten in
Orlando there, but just playoff specifically, I think if you were,
if you were to cling to something for Orlando is
that this team is still built to win ugly or
almost has to win ugly. And so if you get
into a playoff matchup where you're able to ugly it up,
slow things down, or you go up against an offense,
you know, if they play a team like New York
whose half court offense is less predictable than it was
last season, but still something that I think you can neutralize.
Speaker 3: We've seen that a bunch post All Star Break.
Speaker 1: Maybe you're feeling pretty good about it, but that's if
you're if you're Orlando, you can't pick them against Boston
or Cleveland or Detroit with alcaid, I might still give
the edge too or or I might still give the
edge of Detroit.
Speaker 2: Probably is still giving Detroit. Yeah, that's that's depressing. Should
we move on from the depressing Orlando Magic? And I'm
guessing still stay in Florida.
Speaker 1: No, I was gonna say, we haven't talked about a
Western Conference team.
Speaker 2: Oh, the Los Angeles Clippers.
Speaker 1: We now, And so when you're talking about threat level
in the Western Conference, to me, it comes down to
two teams. Portland's defense has been frisky.
Speaker 2: Again.
Speaker 1: You could play that what if Steph Curry is healthy
and Golden State card if you want to. It really
comes down to the Suns or Clippers. And the Suns
are annihilatory in the way they defend. I'm not gonna
trust their offense, even with Devin Booker. And if you
have a if Dylan Brooks is healthy, I Jalen Green's
healthy in the playoffs. But it's not even just that
is you have to view these teams through two separate lenses,
or excuse me, one lens. If you're facing the Thunder,
it's just over in my book as the eight seed coming.
Speaker 2: Out of the West.
Speaker 1: Maybe with the Spurs it gets slightly more interesting just
because you don't have players there over a ton of
playoff experience. You could play the card of, well, how
do they react depending on if defenses get more egregious
in the way they're guarding a Steph Castle or even
a Dearon Fox or Dylan Harper. And so I then
asked myself who would be a more interesting matchup for
the Spurs in Round one? Had you asked me this
a few months ago, it certainly wouldn't have been the Clippers.
But we now have a bigger sample size, more of
them being a good basketball team while also having traded
James Harden and if heats a Zubos then when they
were just an absolute mess to start the season, six
and twenty one, five and twenty one, whatever, it was.
Speaker 2: Just post All Star breaks.
Speaker 1: Specifically top five in net rating, sixth in offense, tenth
in defense. Kawhi Leonard has been what the top five
player in the league this season.
Speaker 2: The best certainly the best American player in the league.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so well, I think I don't know Kaid would
have a case there.
Speaker 2: Now, Kawhi Overkate, come on, come on, the efficiency, the defense,
come on, Kawhi. He's been on another level.
Speaker 1: But offensively, specifically and then you have, Oh, Darius Garland
is healthy. Now, I don't think he's going to shoot
a trillion percent from three forever, but the fact that
he's hitting the off the dribble threes, hitting the spot
up threes, he gives you that shake in the half court.
So now you have, when they're healthy, two top tier
offensive engines with a defense that's still you know you
have Chris done there, Derek Jones Junior is healthy. You've
been getting enough just out of your bigs when they're available.
You've gotten some really good minutes and contributions from a
Kobe Sanders and a Jordan Miller. Even Isaiah Jackson has
had some moments for them.
Speaker 2: I think it's the Clippers, if you're talking.
Speaker 1: I've gone back and forth on this, but if you
had to pick a team to give the Spurs more
of a run for their money, Clippers are sons. And
if you disagree and think it would be the Warriors
or Blazers, feel free. I think it's the Clippers.
Speaker 2: Well, I both disagree and agree at the same time,
because one thing is the star level. You just need
a fully fledged, like top tier star to compete against
the Spurs. You do Kawhi Leonard is that guy. And
at the same time, there's also that very intriguing subplot
of like Kawhi against the Spurs in a playoff setting,
which would fantastic, And the fact that there is a
Darius Garland as well, who is I think a kind
of forgotten man a little bit just in terms of
how good he actually is. I don't know if it's
because he played in Cleveland for a couple of years
and they only had those you know that the one
really good year, but it seems like he's still a
little bit on an afterthought for the like the average
NBA fan, he is so ridiculously talented, and he can
incorporate himself so well as an off ball guy as well,
Like he'll pull up, but he'll also spot up, so
like he's easier to incorporate from an offensive perspective than
James Harden, who was ball dominant, not much of an
off ball guy, so like he has a lot of
gravity that James just doesn't have. But yeah, so I
think I'm going the route with them in terms of
they have the superstar, but they don't have the size.
And that's where I come in and disagree because how
do you stop Wenby If you're the Clippers.
Speaker 3: Who's okay, But who's answering that question?
Speaker 2: No, But but what I'm saying is, so, for example,
if we're going to the Portland route, which I was
going to get to, at least there's a Donovan Klingon
right at least there's like this behemoth inside near the basket,
who does have the potential to give Morph a fight.
Like and when I say give Morph a fight, it's
just I'm not trying to be ageists, but like Brook
Lopez is a gazillion years old, it is going to
be taxing for him to play in a large capacity
against Wimpy, whereas with Dono van Klingen, I imagine that
would be a little bit easier.
Speaker 1: But you don't have in Portland. There's not the rest
of the offensive infrastructure. Those are just because you might
have a bet if you're basing everything off of who
has the it's sort of.
Speaker 2: It I'm better at guarding you.
Speaker 1: But yeah, but you're trusting Portland's offensive infrastructure more than
the Clippers is because I think what you're getting at
to me is kind of falls in the lines of, well,
Team X has a better player to defend Nikola Jokic with.
I think at the end of the day, it just
doesn't fucking matter when you're talking about that.
Speaker 2: No, but I think so I hear what you're saying.
But specifically with the Clippers, I think there's such a
gaping hole when it comes to like the rim protection
and just not being able to take away those things
from I mean, you're asking me specifically about the Spurs
eighteen that loves to get into the painment. It's not
just Wenby by the way, like it is when Stefan
Castle gets downhill. It's when Daron Fox gets downhill. Hell,
it's when Dylan Harper gets downhill. There's just there's so
many guys who will relentlessly go towards the basket. And
that's where I wonder if the Clippers are up for
that task, Like do they have the personnel necessary to
keep the perimeter guys on the actual perimeter? Do they
have enough to actually prevent them to getting all the
way to the rim? That's where I question that. And
in terms of Portland, I just think they have a
more deep offensive, like not just bench but like a
starting lineup or in totality like they have more guys
who can facilitate on their own or for others, like
they have a guy who can pop for twenty five
any any damn game. So like, to me, it's between
those two and with I kind of want to say
Golden Golden State is a wild card just because of
the staff angle. But like Steph has missed how many games?
Speaker 1: Though again every update is he's going to be reevaluated
right in a week, which.
Speaker 2: Is just like, so if he's not available, let's let's
just not count those guys in. But I like, if
you put a gun to my head, I am going
to say the Clippers because of the Kawhi thing and
Garland specifically. Also by the way matherin against a Spurs team,
I think it's interesting because like he can get himself
to the basket and get himself to the foul line
against anybody, and if he could come in and draw
two quick ones on Wimpy, that could swing a thing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's interesting on Portland because I guess you could.
Speaker 2: They have a ton of ball.
Speaker 1: They have a ton of two way ball containment where
they if you look at the Clippers, if you get
into the Dereck Jones, Chris Dunn, you're gonna have there's Kawhi.
Of course you're gonna have questions, maybe more about Okay,
it looks like they have that on the perimeter. Your
point about the center stuff is is well taken, for sure.
I just can't bring myself to think too much about
Wemby because it just sort of he's this unidents unsolvable
to me. But yeah, you know, I think I'd probably
picked the Blazers when I picked the Blazers over the
Suns when going up against the Spurs.
Speaker 2: That's a really interesting question.
Speaker 1: But you know, the Clippers have reached just a higher
peak than any of these teams, and as you mentioned,
they have the the superstar and Kawhi Leonder and like
you could make the case that the pinnacle of Darius
Garland is better, mart I would the pinnacle of Darren's
Garden is better offensively than any player on the Blazers.
As good as Jenny Aby has been for much of
this season, I don't know when the last time he
made a three was, but.
Speaker 2: I think that bodes well for them.
Speaker 1: But yeah, the you're right when you're looking at the
Spurs off and them getting downhill, because defending Wemby Yama.
It's unless you think with Donovan Clinton specifically, that he's
gonna like is Wemby, Is he gonna turn Wemby into
he needs to get to his spots and just get
a shot off.
Speaker 2: Guy in ways that.
Speaker 1: Man, you're making me think about the Blazers and that
in that conversation more than I thought I was going to.
Speaker 3: I think I'd still mean Clippers, but I do.
Speaker 2: I do too, But it's only because I think it
was the combination of the amount of players in Portland
that could facilitate their own offense, as well as the
Donovan Klingon angle that I think could be interesting. But
I mean the fact that we're having a serious discussion
about this also means that the Western It's ridiculous how
much deeper there are than the East. When it comes
like talking about potential, you know, play in teams that
could actually put up a fight for the Spurs.
Speaker 1: Well, it's different because I think you could talk yourself
to more playing teams in the East or underdogs in
the East putting up a fight in a playoff series.
But that's just because the Spurs and the thunder now
feel so untouchable, right, Yeah, in the West where the
Pistons and the Celtics, just in part because of Tatum
and Cunningham, they do.
Speaker 2: Feel a little bit more quote unquote touchable.
Speaker 1: So we close with this then more before getting to
some of the tanking stuff. Who is your single most
dangerous NBA underdog?
Speaker 2: Are we splitting this into East West? Or is that
just why? Okay? Cool? Yeah? Well then I think it's
almost unfair to call the Hornets an underdog given how
they played recently. But like they're the tenth seed, so
like by default they're the underdog, so.
Speaker 1: They're also not a top ten like tile odds team, Well,
they would still be an underdog.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So the Hornets in in the Eastern Conference for
damn sure, and can't they have the eighth seeds? So
like the Clippers, I'm going to go with the Clippers
in the West. But I mean, it would have been
a little bit fun if they had been like lower ranked,
because at least they're higher up in the in the
playing ranking.
Speaker 1: Do you when we see so, I think I agree
with you. I would go Hornets and Clippers. I think
the Hawks probably deserve honorable mention with the with the
main they're probably second for me there, but you would
have the Raptors above the Hawks. She said, right, Oh yeah,
where does Philip You have the Raptors above No?
Speaker 2: Sorry, no, no, no, I had the Hawks over the Raptors.
Oh you have the Hawks over the rap Sorry I misunderstood.
Do you have the Raptors over Philly? M I mean
you promised it wouldn't be thinking, uh involved when you
invited me. Uh god, that's a difficult one. I no,
I'm gonna go Philly. I'm gonna go phil Raptors. Yeah,
but I hear you. I I it's not because like
I stand on firm ground on this one, and I'm like, no,
it's absolutely this. I'm gonna go Philly. And that's just
a gut feeling.
Speaker 1: The Raptors kind of feel like a more dynamic man
team from last year because there's more offensive dynamism there.
But you still have some of the same right space
and concerns. And I trust their defense in a way
I don't with Orlando's right now, and I don't know
where Miami fits and all is.
Speaker 2: I just don't trust them as they might be.
Speaker 1: I think they'd be the last team I'd probably trust
Philly more than I would trust Miami.
Speaker 2: I just can't get a good read on this team.
I've called them so many in so many games here
and are called so many of their games this year.
It's the inconsistency is ridiculous for someone at least the
league in pace, like it's the quickest team in the NBA.
Their results are just so up and down, and it's
it's extremely difficult to get a read on them. So
I agree with you, and it feels like that's why
you can't trust them. Like their defense is fine, it's
not elite, it's fine, and then their offense can vary
from oh shit, Bam goes for eighty three to not
a single player on the roster can crack eighteen. It's yeah,
it's not something I dare put up a rink.
Speaker 1: They're the player who typifies everything that they are. To
me is khalil Ware, because depending on the game or
the day, I feel so confident in what he could become.
And then I find myself on other nights with like, oh,
they're going to hitch their wagon to this guy in
any way, shape or form, Like I don't know what
kohlil Ware's highest end outcome is at this point, I
vast laid between that, like that could be a start. Oh,
he's never going to even be close to a net
positive on defense.
Speaker 2: I still have hope. He's so young, it takes peak.
It's not that I don't have hope.
Speaker 1: It's just he's to me, he's sort of just again
he embodies everything that heat are. It's just there's such
these for me. Optically, there are just these wild swings.
It feels like from game to game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I don't disagree. Let's talk a.
Speaker 1: Little bit about the NBPA has their own tanking.
Speaker 2: Solutions that are out there.
Speaker 1: It was orded by Jake Fisher of the Styline, and
I'll go through it here, he wrote. The MBPA is
proposing a three prong approach to the league's ongoing tanking
slash draft lottery reform discussion, which would first financially reward
wins and penalize losses, second flattened lottery odds, and third
strictly enforced meaningful penalties. The union has suggested distributing national
TV revenue tied to regular season team performance and conference seating,
similar to the English Premier League, where each higher seed
would earn an additional ten million dollars of TV revenue.
That's Prong one, Prong two. In addition to the flattening
of the lottery odds and expanding the lottery to eighteen teams,
the MBPA is proposing odds to the league's bottom ten
teams so they don't make the playoffs, or the plan
should be flattened to seven percent instead of eight percent,
and the remaining eight should be at three point seventy
five percent, all of landing the number one pick and
then the final prong. The Union and other league figures
are pushing to employ additional penalties to punish blankant tanking,
such as reducing a team's lottery odds, moving their pick
to the end of the lottery or the first round,
or stripping them of their first round selection. Before I
throw it to you, I just want to say one
thing off the bat. That last prong is a complete
non stot starter for me. Because of how selective the
NBA is at enforcing its current player petition policy or
when it comes to finding teams, I just wouldn't trust
there would be any uniform approach. But other than that,
knowing the backstory of what the league has also proposed,
and this seems to tie in with the league's first proposal,
where it was eighteen teams in the lottery, eight percent
for the bottom ten, and then the other eight split
the remaining twenty percent. These just futs with those numbers
a little bit. But what do you think of kind
of the player's unions approach to this.
Speaker 2: I mean, they're responding to something which I think, to
begin with is pretty essence, but we've been through that before.
I think they're trying to limit the potential damage that
could be made here if they're going to go the
route like they kind of moved off the first suggestion
that the league came with with the eighteen teams involved
in the lottery, Like, okay, and if you want the
flat odds, sure, I just I don't think people you
and I were talking about this before we started recording, Like,
I don't think people understand just the sheer shenanigans that
would go on in that setting like that. It would
be so difficult for bad teams and ethically bad teams,
by the way, because nowadays, if you're a bad team,
apparently you have to be what do you go like
you have to be thrown for the wolves because you can't, apparently,
be ethically bad. You can't be bad just by having
injuries or a bad roster. No, no, no, it all
has to be by intent now apparently, But it's how
are teams going to even even get a remote good
chance of returning to respectability? Is kind of where I'm left.
Look the financially rewarding wins and panalizing lossers, Let's just
take that aside, because that's that's not here or there
in terms of just the tanking structure or sorry, the
lottery structure. Isn't the entire point of the draft to
give bad teams a chance to be good? Again? Isn't
that a fucking tool to actually try for the So
why are we tingering with this to this extent? Why
are we flattening odds so possible good teams like could
come in. Let's say a good team has a bad year,
they have a shits one of injuries. Okay, Then all
of a sudden, they have the same percentage as as
a team that's fundamentally or ethically however you want to
call it bad, And then the good team ends up
with the number one pick like okay, Oklahoma's thunder. It
just for argument's sake, Well, yeah.
Speaker 1: They wouldn't be involved in the actual lottery, but yeah,
to your point, yeah, I mean it. So I will
say kind of the first scenario where it's whether it's
seven percent or eight percent from an entertainment product perspective,
I prefer that to the system now because we've seen
some pretty god awful basketball yeah this year. That being said,
I'm with you in the sense that I don't know
if you're like one, you're kind of shifting some of
the tanking parameters, especially if I know the scenarios where
you're gonna wait multi year records. I don't love that,
but this specifically you do, whether like whether it's unintended
or intended, it's gonna take certain teams longer to climb
out of the hole that they're thrust into because a
lot of these teams they're not gonna No one really
signs free agents anymore, to be fair, but you're not
gonna make good like it's it's so rare that we
see what the Wizards or the Jazz did where they
trade for these stars before being able to identify, hey,
we have our tent pole player of the future. The
Jazz are certainly closer because of the the Ace Bailey
Lowry market in Keante George plus this year's.
Speaker 2: Pick of it all. I just I don't know.
Speaker 1: I also don't know what this does to like traded picks,
because just all of a sudden, like being a bottom
ten team, like you could be a team that has
the twenty first like you write twenty first in record
And I'm just using a probability calculator here. If you
have an eight percent chance the number one pick, but
they're doing the lottery for all eighteen picks, that's a
thirty four percent chance that you've all of a sudden
given up a top five pick, and like that, I'm
curious how that would impact the transaction market. Well we
see more pick protections because they haven't talked about reading
that out as well. There's also Mark Stein and said
that there's worry that they're gonna make it too confusing
for fans to digest, which I think some people will
like kind of scoff at, But I do believe it
matters because the whole Apron stuff. Just as someone who
has to write about trades and people who get mad
at them or come with me a proposals, that's already
kind of like taking it above and beyond what the
fan threshold for critical thinking should be in my book,
I have yet to see even if I even though
I slightly prefer the whole eighteen team lottery eight percent
chance to what we're seeing now. That's really just from
an entertainment product perspective, but from a feasibility like looking
at how the league would go on from here, especially
when you're adding two more teams in. I just don't
know how realistic that is, And I find myself wondering,
why do not like all of these proposals seem to
emphasize we need to figure out a way to minimize
losing rather than incentivize winning.
Speaker 2: If that makes sense, you've yet to like.
Speaker 1: The most persuasive argument might be the Players Association saying
the national TV revenue you should get a boost, like
depending on where your record is. But even then you're
I guess you're setting a floor if you want to
set that up.
Speaker 2: This is just I kind of.
Speaker 1: Thought that there would be more official proposals or a push.
How do we actively incentivize teams to win, not minimize
their incentive to lose because they're still gonna be Grant
and I talked about this more. If it's eight percent
or seven percent and you have a chance to be
the sixth seed, you might pivot out of being the
six seed just to like fall into the play in, yeah,
or or you might fall out of the play in
so that goad. I don't really want to be in
the plane. I'd rather have an eight or seven percent
chance at or not even that. I'd rather have a
thirty four percent chance of getting a top five pick
than entering the play into what that's gonna be a decision.
You know, if people were complaining about what the MAVs
did that year to keep their own pick, that's I
think that's probably gonna happen a lot more often if
we shift to this approach.
Speaker 2: I would be inclined to agree. And to your point,
or rather Stein's point, the fact that it is convoluted.
I wrote about this over at Yahoo as well when
the League came out with their idea and their proposals.
It is actually pretty important that fans understand what's going on, because,
like you said, the Aprons has really made it difficult
for fans to actually understand the entire free agency process
or trades or rules. I mean, I've read so many
people basically said, look, I gave up at the first aprint,
like I can't be involved right now. And it's just
led to a lot of confusion. And is that a
way to connect to the product? No, it's alienating your product.
And this is where the fact that the league is
a league of lawyers comes in and is an hindrance. Outright,
this isn't about basketball to me. This is, like you said,
this is about penalizing certain behavior and then everyone else
has to put the bill. And it's dumb and it's unnecessary.
And I'm going to repeat myself for the eighteenth time
on this is because we ran in to a three
drafts over four year period twenty three, twenty five, and
twenty six where there are just a shit ton of talent,
like top tier level talent. Of course teams are going
to go after that. Guess what, man, they didn't tank
in twenty four. They're not going to tank in twenty seven,
which might actually be a worse draft than twenty four.
And it seems like the league is responding to the
bad basketball being played in years where there are these
franchise altering players available. How could they not see that
and just go hey, look we get it, and when
those players come in, those organizations will get them are
actually going to get better. I mean, look, okay, this
first tank for Wemby, are we calling them unethical at
this point? I'm sure some people are. There are other
teams doing it, okay, but are we hearing the league
being complaining about how this has come a championship contender
over the like in under three years? No right?
Speaker 1: And also what you do by rewarding the worst teams
in theory, and I'm not pretending tanking is an issue.
I want to make that clear. And like so there
used to just sort of be what felt like this
unspoken rule that you weren't that this wasn't like it happened,
but it didn't seem as prevalent. But I think as
the league you mentioned it, it's a league of lawyers.
Or you're just looking at the people they have behind
the scene, in front offices.
Speaker 2: There are just more people.
Speaker 1: There's like people have gotten smarter when you look at
the way that people call it the you know, the
nerds ruined the NBA, But it's a lot of just
like we've moved beyond oh three is more than two
type of discussions. The league is just smarter in the aggregate,
and so that these approaches. You know, you could blame
San Hanky for maybe like an extremist approach and bringing
that to the forefront, but as the league is evolved,
it's gotten smarter.
Speaker 2: And so there are these teams and I think any
team in any.
Speaker 1: Market, with the exception of a couple, are just going
to say, our best chance of being a sustainable threat
in this league is to get a transcendent player, the
best player on a title contender or fringe title contender material.
How do you get that player? What's the best way
of getting that player for any team? It's the draft.
With the way that free agencies up, there might be
more teams that are more confident in trading for that
player first, how do you And the Spurs would be
a good example of Okay, yes they they tang to
get Wemby, but look at how that accelerated their timeline
and what did they do after that? They got more
aggressive and went after they made the d'aron Fox trade.
So and then yes they got lottery luck when it
came to landing Dylan Harper. That wasn't necessarily part of
the calculus, So I don't on it. I don't know
what the answer is because but I will say that
I do think there's a lot of unintended consequences to
some of the proposals here that probably aren't being given
enough consideration. With all of that said, though, based on
what you're saying, do you like you just wouldn't make
any changes to the system.
Speaker 2: No, No, I wouldn't pick up. But also I don't mind
the tanking part. I just don't. I think again, the
league has removed so many things recently, or well, some
of it hasn't really been the league, that has just
been organic. But let's take a look at it. Because
I wrote about this over yeahoo some time ago. Free
agency has more or less died in terms of like
getting the real stars out there. Stars are preferring to
sign extensions and then request the trade if they want
to move on, right, So like you're not gonna find
you know, a prime Lebron James and free agency anymore,
that's just not a thing that happens. So the free
agency angle in terms of getting that guy you spoke
about just before gone, it's dead, all right. Now you're
tinking with the draft, all right. That means you can't
really build through the draft anymore, at least not in
a way where you can predict certain you know, placements,
and you might get panalized if the league deems you're
doing something that's unethical. So like you can't really plan
to build through the draft anymore. Okay. That is two
of the three main principles of roster constructions. That have
like three tools that have been removed that have been
the pillars of the NBA roster construction for fifty sixty
seventy years. Now, by the way, just so we don't
forget that, we're left with one pillar that is trades. Okay,
this is where it gets difficult because the Apron system
what did that, oh right, that fucked up trades, that
messed up the trade past.
Speaker 1: I also don't think that I don't think the flattened
odds would help trade markets either, because I like, let's
just use let's use the Knicks example with McHale bridges.
When you're looking at those outyears on some of those picks,
the twenty twenty eight swap, the twenty twenty nine first,
the twenty thirty one's first specifically, there's a like, let's
look at twenty twenty nine to twenty thirty one. Forget
about them being a bottom ten teen. Isn't there a
chance that they could there feasibly be just a playing
team by that point, And so you're in that scenario
you were baking on all like, we may have to
give up like a pick that's twenty or seventeen.
Speaker 2: But if you make this change.
Speaker 1: Let's use the players Union one as an example where
they flattened it to what for playing teams to it
was three point seventy five. Now all of a sudden, it's, oh,
a seventeen point four percent chance that we gave up
a top five pick. I think that you're gonna see
less or fewer swings of that. And then that's not
to say like there will still be bad trades, but
I similar to the way that some of the extension
rules changes and and just the aprons and stuff, feels
like they have neutered free agency, I think some of
this stuff with the lottery will do something similar to
the trade market. Maybe maybe that's fine for some people,
but the NBA is very much built at least a
chunk of its legacy on their transaction cycle, the trade
deadline in the offseason, or some of the highest interest
points of the year right next to you know, maybe
opening night and of course the playoffs.
Speaker 2: Right and at the end of the day, if you
are giving fewer and fewer tools to teams to construct
a roster with, what are they left with. They are
left with the manipulation of the system, meaning they are
going to go to the very most extreme thinking they
can within the perimeters of the rules, in order to
improve and to get better. And then the league is
going to say, oh, no, that is not how it's intended.
It's unethical, And then that box keeps growing smaller or
scaling down smaller. I am worried that the tinker, the
constant tingering, is a problem. Like I respect Adam Siller
for thinking outside the box. That is something that I
will never like get off my soapbox about, because I
do appreciate someone being willing to try something new. But
now it's become an issue where teams can even interest
season or sorry, enter into a summer and go, yeah,
I have the three pillars. What pillar do you honestly
have left? Oh and by the way, let's just let's
just let's not ignore the whole concept that they even
oh yeah, we gave them a twenty percent increase in
the one hundred and forty percent rule. But like seams
can't even keep their own guys if they're on veteran extensions,
Like they can't. They have to trade those guys for
fucking peanuts because they can't even keep their guys who
they drafted. It's to me, we're looking at a major
like roster construction recession, and it's a problem. It's a problem.
Speaker 1: And yet, I mean, the other thing is they've given
team owners tons of excuses to kind of cheap out now.
But the other thing that they've also done by implementing
these changes, I'm with you. I appreciate hashtag try yeah stuff,
But if you're built you mentioned the roster construction recession,
I don't know how you we're already working with would
feel like very expedited timelines, where these competitive life cycles
they change on a whim, even when it feels like
they're set up to just go on for like the thunder.
I'm not saying this is gonna happen. They just seem
like they're set for the next decade. If history is
any indication there's something's gonna happen that kind of throws
that for a whirl. And because it's happened so many
remember the Nets. What happened with the Nets. We've seen
it happen with the Lakers, even the Celtics. When you
throw in the look I didn't see them coming this season,
but you throw that Jason Tatum injury into the equation
and look at the roster trend that they went through.
Speaker 2: But from the perspective of how do I go.
Speaker 1: About making decisions if I think that, especially looking at
lottery reform, these changes can be made like I can't
look more than two years ahead, No, and that becomes difficult.
I did want to ask you, though, what do you
think of the idea of because I think one of
the problems with tanking is some of these teams are
just organically bad.
Speaker 2: You do get to a point in the season.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's as early as many people believe,
but you do get to a point in the season
post All Star Break, around the trade deadline, whatever, where
the shenanigans get ridiculous. What do you think of the
idea of losses counting towards your lottery odds to a
certain date, followed by wins contributing to your lottery odds
from a different where to let you use the line
of demarcation as the trade deadline.
Speaker 3: Losses before wins after.
Speaker 2: I think it completely ignores the so called lock of
the draw in terms of injuries, Like what if you
have a guy who is out for a major portion
of the year, but like you're just like, because here's
the thing, you can be just goodness to still make
the plane right, like you were, like you said, teams
aren't making these decisions early in the year. These are
late in the year because of the implementation of the plane. Now,
now you're like you're pushing your decision to tank or
be bad to later or later in the year. So
if you have your star player missing I don't know,
two months to an injury or some sort, and there's
like this arbitrary date, but you're like you're still looking
at him to like come back before the playoffs and
then you set off, but you've lost all these games
and it's like no, you're you're you're losing intentionally and
you're getting penalized for that. No. Again, it's there are
just so many unforeseen consequences here. So I I just
hate this. I hate it. I hate it, I hate it.
I think this is so ridiculous, and I think it's
unnecessarily complicated as well, that it should be a cut
off date because there are so many parameters to why
you could be bad. Then if that team has been
bad for most of the year but manages to turn
it around when the player comes back, then they're not
going to be rewarded for that. Oh yeah, it's the reverse.
But like generally speaking, I just bro I think it's
it's then then then if then let's say you had
your your you're on a pace to win sixty games,
and your guy goes down, then what and then you
start losing? Yeah, but that's the what happens now, if
that happen, right, No, no, no, I get that. But
if you're putting in an arbitrary date and you sort
of say, all right, like there's we're splitting the season
into two kind of things, like okay, you were taking
stock to what you did before and then afterwards, Like
I just foresee so many complications with that, Like it
has to be a full on single picture.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so there's always going to be unintended consequences of something.
I think that ends up having fewer and I just
haven't talked to you about it before. I think that
ends up having fewer and I then other scenarios, and
I think it does split the difference a little bit
better because it's now you are.
Speaker 3: So let's use the Pacers as an example here.
Speaker 1: They're rewarded through through the trade that they're compensated through
the trade deadline because they don't have Tyre's Haliburton for
the season, but they're almost incentivized to make that of
Viatazoobots trade like they did and then continue to play
him or not sit other guys. The Wizards are incentivized
to make the trades that they did and then play
them if they're healthy. Now I'm not saying all these
teams are faking injuries, but Jaron Jackson Junior, as an example,
needed surgery. He didn't need it in Memphis, and then
needed in Utah right after he was kind of playing.
Speaker 2: So I think you get rid of that behavior.
Speaker 1: And even if it's some teams get hurt by it,
they're just but they were rewarded in the first half
of the season for being organically bad and if you
are organically bad, it then incentivies you to we're talking
about the transaction cycle, to be more aggressive at the
trade deadline. We see more of these instances of why
are teams like the Pacers and the Jazz and the
Wizards making these moves for win now players? Maybe that
misses the mark, but the grant's a pretty he's not
a big proponent, but he's been on board with some
variation of the flatt and lottery odds and again proposal
number one, whether it's eight percent, seven percent, whatever. I
would welcome the chaos as someone who covers the league
from like lottery night, But I don't think if people
are mad about the lottery results from this past year,
get ready for that to be kind of the new
normal at that point.
Speaker 2: So to your example, in terms of like the Pacers,
they would be incentivized to go trade for you each
just souper much, all right, What if that team feels
a need to go out and make a move that
they actually don't want to do, but it's the only
way to avoid, you know, getting panalized in some capacity
like it's I think this just forces teams to do
something that they might not want to do because of
a rule set, and to me fundamentally that goes against
you know, optimal roster construction.
Speaker 1: What's gonna happen though? If you flatten it, aren't you
going to it? Does not behavior become more prevalent or
doesn't reverse it? Well, where are we just gonna have
more teams? Well, hey, we could be one of the
ten worst teams on an eight percent chance, we're just
gonna be bad off rep.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, remember when they
changed the lottery os the last time, Like granted was
not you know that that was they tinkered, but they
were like, oh, we're sure that this is going to
prevent tanking, all right, It didn't like that. That didn't
That did virtually nothing.
Speaker 1: And it was by and large considered a good idea
until it wasn't right where it was like remember the
All Star Game. Everyone thought that elam ending, oh everything,
until it didn't. And now everyone thinks the USA versus
world said Oh they did it. It's gonna be something's
gonna happen within the next like two or three years
where people are going to turn on it. I don't
think there's a perfect solution. I'm just I will say
I'm uninspired with the ones that have been coming up here,
And I also like, I don't the other thing that
maybe even sometimes I don't fully appreciate. Right now they're
drawing the first four picks, you start drawing the first
eighteen picks, you could do nothing to the odds and
shit's just gonna get weird.
Speaker 2: Yep, right, yep.
Speaker 1: So that's the other star change. So it is that
one too, Like would it make more sense?
Speaker 2: Is it?
Speaker 1: Is it like prohibitive enough to maybe you flatten me
odds a little bit, like not completely flatten them, but
through the top What is it the top four teams
right now have the same chance top three whatever, Like
do you extend it to five or six and then
like you extend the lottery? I don't know, but I
thought there was gonna be more to done to act
actively incentivize winning. And I don't think giving playing teams
or bottom rung playoff teams the ability to have some
sort of lottery odds does that enough when when you're
gonna flatten them for for everybody else. But I won't
pretend to have the answer. I'm just more intrigued by
I prefer you call it the arbitrary cutoff date rule.
I'd be more in favor of trying something like that
first before going one of these directions that have been discussed.
Speaker 2: And I staying corrected. By the way, it's the first,
it's three teams that have the same odds. By the way,
it's not four obviously.
Speaker 1: Yes, so like expand it to five, I guess, although
then you might be incentivizing tanking to an extent the
unintended consequences of everything more.
Speaker 2: One, happy fortieth birthday.
Speaker 1: But two, can you tell our subscribers audience where they
can find you and all the workday?
Speaker 2: Yes, sir, well you can find me over at Yahoo Sports,
and you can find me at the NB podcast. If
you standing Danish, you can catch buzzer Beater or called
catch them calling the games on inshtral Max. Until next time,
and as always, we mot the shout out to the.
Speaker 1: One, the only, the indelible, the real player that teams
should be tanked.
Speaker 2: To sign in free agency this
Speaker 3: Summer, mister Frank HeLa Keino