Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody. It is Friday. It's time
for another full court Press Robino of course, Hotel Lobby edition.
This is nothing new at this point. I am. I
am on my way to Athens, Ohio to meet Brian
Power and like I think like fifteen of his friends.
I didn't know he had that many friends, rob but
apparently he's got a crew. And I guess the group
just continues to get bigger because like they had this
plan for a while to go to this particular game,
and I don't think they knew that Miami of Ohio's course,
of course, is going to be unbeaten. So the group
just continues to grow. And thankfully they've moved the tip
back to nine pm. Gives us all a little bit
more time to sort of get in there and it
should be a good time. And that's gonna be our
feature game today. That is where the you know that'll
the eyes of the basketball world will be on that game.
But first got to recap the night before. I went
one and two last night a little bit. I don't
know if I if it would have been better had
I added, you know, there was like I kind of
looked through everything, I sort of passed on, kind of
washed out, so one and two for me. Simo ends
up getting there on a buzzer beater that was actually
I was a second half comeback away from going oh
to three, but that did get there. Manhattan no showed
the second half unfortunately, and Navy was very disappointing to me.
They nearly played their way into a loss, rob but
they get it done. They advanced. But yeah, a couple
of down days, we lose the parlay by a bucket.
Of course, Simo was in the parlay. Bayou's a leg
of the parlay gets there, so I hope he's got
another one cueued up. But yeah, just disappointing last couple
of days. I've had a really good two plus month
run at this point, so hopefully we can turn it
around today. How is your night?
Speaker 2: Very very slight loss at them two and two on
the night College Hoop. The slight loss comes because the
one play that was a hair larger than the other
three was the play that we left here in the parla.
I need seventy five and a half. I think we
get to seventy three against def Yu. Kind of disappointed
in Middle Tennessee's offense there, but it is what it is.
Got a couple of winners last night with the Sacred
Heart game total over the number Sacred Heart and Iona
put together about a one hundred and eleven point second
half in that game, absolutely crazy. Everything they threw up
went in worked out good.
Speaker 1: For me.
Speaker 3: In the end. Northern Iowa.
Speaker 2: I had that team total over seventy and a half
they got to sixty eight against Evansville. Northern Iowa did
not get there. And then the other winner, I'm trying
to recall at him. I can't off the top of
my I had these days blend themselves together, but it
was a two and two. I'm just trying to Oh, yeah,
South Florida team total over never in doubt against Memphis
ninety six eighty nine finals.
Speaker 3: So there you have it.
Speaker 2: A couple of winners with the Sacred Heart game full
game over, the South Florida team total over, pair of
losers with the MTSU team total over that did not
get there in Northern I missed both of those by
a book and so we'll get back to it tonight.
As I mentioned all the time, since December one up
fifty one units in college hoops. So it's been a
four month run. Haven't had a losing month since the
beginning of the year November, so it's been really really good.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm still you know, I'm still trying to reverse
a tough start, but sixty units in January and February
for me, started off March really good and then the
last two days have given some back. So but again
this is probably from a volume stamp point for me.
March is typically, especially these next two weeks, gonna be
very very high volume, just because there's I truly believe
that edge is as good as good as it's gonna
get in this smaller conference tournament. So like this first
week and then that first week of March madness. So yeah,
we've got a ton of games today. We got to
get right into it, and let's talk the game. I'm
headed to tonight. That's Miami of Ohio, Ohio, and Rob
you know I'm gonna be there. Of course it would
be awesome too, you know that. Actually, you know, either
result wouldn't really matter because in one hand, you know,
getting to be there for Ohio winning this game would
be pretty cool, right, because yeah, I'm sure if if
Brian Power wasn't tuned up enough by getting the happy
hour at five o'clock. Certainly Ohio win would would send
him into into outer space basically, but if it doesn't happen,
then you get to see Miami of Ohio complete the
feet of running the table through the right season. You know,
as I look at the matchup and I recall us chat,
I recall us talking about this game last time. He's
to two teams played, and my handicap is similar, Like
for Miami of Ohio to win, I'm sorry for Ohio
to win this game. I feel like Miami of Ohio
has to just have an off shooting night. They have
to shoot it poorly, and like, I just don't I
think if they even play an average game, they're not
losing the game. And then you look at the number
and like, even if I take recency bias out of
it completely, here, Rob, I'm still the most I'm getting
to is like five and a half six. So talk
to me about this game. You've been really good with
Miami of Ohio totals. I just don't know that I'm
getting enough value to play Ohio. But my gut says,
don't do it with Miami of Ohio because it's Man,
they've come so close to slipping up on the road
in a couple of these scenarios that maybe that happens here.
So intriguing game. Talk to me about this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, and for waiting for Miami of Ohio
to have a bad shooting night, it just hasn't happened.
In conference play, they're so infrequent, it's you know, the
worst shooting game they had was way back on January
third against Akron, who is I think in both of
our opinions Adam Akron and Miami on a neutral we
lean Akron in that game. Obviously it's debatable who's better
Miami of Ohio or Akron, but Acron did hold them
to thirty seven percent shooting. Even in that instance, Miami
of Ohio still found a way to win seventy six
to seventy three. So you're asking, if you're betting Ohio,
you're asking for Miami on the Road to be off shooting.
We know that even when they are off shooting. I
can give you another example a couple of weeks ago,
only forty percent against Eastern Michigan win the game by ten.
So even when they don't shoot it well, which again
is so infrequent they found a way to win. It's
hard to bet against this team laying points in this
particular instance when you add in the crowd factor tonight
for Ohio, you the national television spotlight. I will say this,
Miami of Ohio has been under the Friday night spotlight
more than once now and they haven't melted yet.
Speaker 3: They continue to win.
Speaker 2: So it's it's very, very difficult to bet against them
in almost any situation for me, so I immediately looked
the total first time around these two play till game
final score of one hundred and sixty four ninety to
seventy four. Miami O really not close again. Miami shot
the ball terrific fifty two and a half from two,
fifty percent from three.
Speaker 3: All the weaponry was there.
Speaker 2: Ohio even shot it pretty well from inside the arc
Adam and still couldn't get the job done, couldn't come
within sixteen points.
Speaker 3: Of course, that was at.
Speaker 2: Miami and this is in Ohio. I don't know from
the situationals, which are what they are, can Miami withstand
the pressure? Ohio you in their final home game, heated rivalry,
all of that situational stuff, I guess you can build
somewhat of a case for Ohio when it comes down
to fundamentals and who's the better team. Over the course
of forty minutes. There may be stretches and spurts et cetera,
et cetera for either side here, But when it comes
to time to rise up and who's better, Miami's just
got better shooters, way more options.
Speaker 1: And I think I.
Speaker 2: Want to make this point, which is a shade off topic,
but not really. I don't know if you saw the
rant that Sundance Wicks went on for the head coach
of Wyoming.
Speaker 3: He went on this insane not insane.
Speaker 2: I won't call it insane because he made a lot
of sense, but went on this rant about all of
the anti Miami of Ohio sentiment going around.
Speaker 3: Don't deserve to be an attorney, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 2: And his main point in that whole thing was that
people don't realize how difficult it is to schedule for
these mid majors. Nobody wants to play them, and when
they find a team like Miami of Ohio that has,
in Sundayance Wix's terms, retention, meaning they kept all their
players from the year before, then God, no.
Speaker 3: We don't want to play you. You kept all your player.
Speaker 2: When they schedule these mid majors, if in fact they
do schedule them at all, they're counting on nil dispersals
to other teams. You're coaching a bunch of new kids,
which is the case in a lot of mid major situations,
and they think they can come in and win. They
don't want to get a lost, So credit to Miami
of Ohio was his point. I too think that this
team is in the tournament no matter what happens here tonight.
Speaker 3: I don't think they're gonna lose.
Speaker 2: Adam, if I had to play here, I'd be playing
the total up and over one fifty nine and a half.
It's already been bet up a couple of points. Don't
let it go too too far. Like I said earlier,
the game did hit one sixty four first time around.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if I if I was playing here, i'd be
I'd be laying it with Miami of Ohio. You know again,
I think, I think even if you take all the
recency out, which obviously when I when I say recency,
I mean you're you're clearly gonna the books are clearly
going to attack you a little bit on backing a
thirty and oh team. Even even if you take all
that out, I'm still coming up with like Miami of
Ohio like minus six, right, and that would be giving
Ohio like the full benefit of the doubt. So in reality,
my number is actually probably higher than that. And here's
the concern is that again, I just think the only
way Miami Ohio loses this game is if the moment
is just too big and they have an uncharacteristic sort
of melt in my opinion, But Rob, you made a
really good point. They have they're accustomed to this. Now.
How many fridays in a row have they played the
big game on a Friday Night? And if you look
at their whole schedule, which again there is some merit
to running the table in this league, it's still a
decent league. That means you still had to beat Akron,
you still had to beat Kent State, Toledo Bowling Green.
You know, UMASSES is not great this year, but they're
not a team. You know, they beat Florida State in
the non conference. Those weren't easy games. Point is like
they pretty much have gotten it done every step of
the way. If you look at the conference slate on
the road. I believe the only two where they didn't
win by this margin was Buffalo, where they missed a
couple of file shots and Buffalo crept back in hit
a couple shots and suddenly it was a two point game.
And then last week at Western Michigan, which was probably
Miami of Ohio one of their worst halfs of conference play,
that first half against Western Michigan where they only scored
twenty six points. So my thing is this, you're if
you're back in Ohio, I feel like you're I feel
like you're waiting for that to happen, and if it doesn't,
you're probably gonna find yourself down ten to fifteen, and
then you're gonna be hoping you can you can somehow
steal it at the end and cut it to four
or five and get back door. I did. I just
think that my probably seven times out of ten, Miami
of Ohio is winning this game by six points or more.
So do what you will with that. Not doubt it
makes my card, but but I certainly I think they.
I think they get it done. I think they complete
the undefeated season in Athens tonight.
Speaker 3: You write that with RedHawks gear tonight.
Speaker 1: Now, as you can see, I don't have I put
a green sweatshirt on. This is a Charlotte sweatshirt. I'm
sure I'll I'm sure I'll come across some Ohio gear
at some point, but no, I'm not. I'm not wearing red.
I may. You know, I don't always bad. I don't
even know if I'll have to actually, like a lot
of times see them. I go with the games. I
go to like I'm trying to do content, take video
and stuff like that, and then I usually do that
in the first half, and then by the second half
I a lock in and watch the game. So who knows,
maybe I'll maybe I'll bet the second half. We'll see,
but yeah, not going to be a client play for me.
Should be great though. It's gonna be a really good one.
I think it'll probably Ohios. Yeah, you know, it's gonna
be Ohio's best crowd in a minute, probably. I know.
A lot of the uppers are being sold, So Steve
Duke real quick before you move on to the next game. No,
all of the games are not tournament games. This is
the final round of play for the MAC regular season,
so so no, they're not all tournament games, and I
will do my best job to clarify if we're talking
about a tournament game or not. And so I'm gonna
move on to Garth here, and this would be a
scenario where we're not talking about a tournament game. So
he says, looking at Penn minus two and a half.
So what I find very interesting about if you're trying
to bet the ivy's today, rob is IVY madness has
already locked in. So in theory, the IVY League games
tonight are I believe, meaningless from a from a who
gets into the conference tournament or not. However, they still
could alter seeding because of course I believe most of
these teams still play two more games. So tonight you're
looking at Yeah, so you're looking at four. You know,
you're looking at a whole slate of IVY. The next
I believe, Oh, I'm sorry, no, this is gonna be
the finale. So it looks like we're seeing the IVY
finale tonight. Everyone is going to play one more game
in the IVY. I did the math wrong, and they
all play fourteen league games. So yale, it looks like
already has at least the one seed. I do think
there's a scenario where they could finish tied with Harvard
at the top for a co championship thing. But here's
a scenario. So I want to go to Gard's game.
He likes Penn. Looking at Penn minus two and a half,
he says, the only thing that scares this is the first
time Penn has been favored on the road. Yeah, so
now Penn is favored on the road, and they're also
already into IVY madness. That being said, Brown win or
lose here, Rob is going to finish last in the
IVY this year. If you watched Full Court Press early
in the year, I told you that might happen, I
said Brown. I thought it was the worst team in
this league. They of course lost Keno Lilly, they don't score,
They've been a disaster all year. And so you know,
Penn I think is finah. I think they're really good.
I talked about this too, Fran McCaffrey. I figured that
he'd be right in the mix in his first year
in this league, and of course he is. He has
his team in IVY madness. So is it as simple
as just laying the small number with Penn here on
the road or do you think Brown shows up for
their senior night. A lot of these teams will have
some seniors. I can't see any reason of that. Brown.
I've said they're bad all year. They're bad. So it's
Pen or pass for me? Sideer total Rob, what do
you got.
Speaker 2: Well, I think you'd have to lean Penn. I believe
they're locked into the three. I don't believe they can
climb to the two over Harvard. They did split their
season series. Pen is a game behind. It would require
a Harvard loss as well. But they are locked into
the three because even if they lose this game, Cornell
could tie them. But Penn beat Cornell twice this year,
so they win that tiebreaker. So Penn, when you said meaningless,
it is kind of meaningless unless you're Fran McCaffrey and
you want some kind of tune up game, which I
think they probably would like to have a tune up
game first time around eighty one to seventy three in
favor of Penn. Penn has played terrific down the stretch.
I mean, Fran did a great job with this team.
They're seven in one of excuse me, six and one
straight up in their last seven games. And the only
game they lost at them was a four point loss
to Yale, which on the road. There's no shame in
that losing by forty Yale at Yale. If your Pens
so they are probably you could honestly argue that they're
the hottest team the IVY right now. I don't think
you do anything to disrupt that heading into the tournament.
If you're a Fran McCaffrey, you don't kind of take
the it's a meaningless game approach with this one to
maybe force your team out of the rhythm that they're in.
So I could agree with Garth here, Like I say,
first time it was an eight point win, but let's
remember that back on January ten when these two teams played,
Pen really wasn't in a rhythm at that point in time.
I think we had even talked way back then about
France still trying to figure some things out with this
team rotationally, et cetera, et cetera. Had some talent and
his style to be implemented. Probably takes a little bit
of time for Penn to acclimate too, but they are now.
And like I say, the list of wins in the
last seven games, including the most recent win over Harvard,
which is huge for Penn to at least from a
mindset of we belong in this final four tournament. We
can beat these guys close at Yale beat Harvard, So
I would agree the.
Speaker 3: Number just looks small to me. How is Brown.
Speaker 2: Only two and a half worse than Penn at this
particular point in time. I get that the power ratings
are seasonal. They're overall numbers. They're not really accounting for.
Don't sit there and say, let's have our last seven
games power ratings and put them up against it. That's
what we do on the other side of the counter.
And from that perspective, I think you're getting a better
team right now with Pen than what you had back
in January. And that team beat Brown by eight.
Speaker 1: So a couple of things. I was at that Pen
Yale game. Penn was the better team. They kind of
lost it at the end. I felt like Penn pretty
much outplayed Yale for the majority of that game. They
covered a big number. I want to say they were
like a ten point dog. Actually that was the game
so Nick Townsend got ruled out, so even they went
off eight, they still covered easily. They had a couple
of looks in the final minute or two to win,
like I thought Penn was, like was the better of
those two teams on that day. They just fell a
little bit short. And you're and as you said, that's
their only loss since January, right, the only loss they've
had since January is on the road to the best
team in the league. I think your whole handicap here
is motivation, and I think I'm gonna further make the
case for Penn. Penn has not played since Saturday when
they played Harvard. IVY Madness will not start until next Saturday.
So why would Fran McCaffrey rest anyone or risk not
playing this game out for forty minutes? Like this is
your only game action in a in a two week span.
So you go Saturday the twenty eight, they played Harvard
at home, and then they'll play Harvard on Saturday the
fourteen in the in Ithaca in the semi final round
of IVY Madness. So you've got one game in between
those games. It's this game, rob like that you should
be going through. That should be full full dress rehearsal here.
Why would you change anything for this game? And if
if Pennan's gonna come out and give an effort. It
would be shocking for them to lose. And then if
you're talking about them winning, they only need to win
by two and a half and I didn't even really
factor that in yet and my number still up around four.
So I think Gar's probably on to something. I may
have to go give another look to this one. That's
a I think that's a good call, Garth. That number
feels short to me as well. All right, we can
move on quick promo double the Firepower CVB package. You know,
up until the last couple of days have been rolling
right along, and I think, you know, going into the weekend,
I'm certainly not deterred from a couple of losing days.
I actually, you know, you could argue I had them coming.
I think I had four straight winning days prior to that,
and like multiple winning weeks. So we'll battle through it.
There's a bunch of spots I really like this weekend,
and I know Rob just continues to plug along up
near the top of the you know, everyone at wager
talk college hoops. So you got two options, the three
day or the full season take us right through through
the NCAA tournament, and of course don't forget all those
little tournaments. The n I t are they gonna let
us bet the crown this year? Rob? Is the question.
They pulled the odds last year, if you remember, I
was all ready to bet that tournament and they said
they basically every sportsbook pulled the odds. But you know,
we'll be grinding it out with you through March, and
I hope you guys join us because it truly is
the best time of year. And listen, I didn't spend
all these miles on the road and these little gyms
to not come out and kill it during conference tournament weeks.
So that is what we plan to do. And Rob,
I am going to go right to you. Robert Surpus
was at the Long Beach State game last night. I
appreciate you tweeting me from the game with clips from
the game. I love that. I if I can do anything,
Rob inspire people to go out watch more basketball, feel
like I'm doing my job. He got a great game
between UC Davis and Long Beach last night, And I'm
gonna go right to you here because he wants to so,
first of all, appreciate the donation. Second, he wants to
know Belmont eleven and a half. Any thoughts, and I
know if there's a guy that has thoughts on the
Belmont Bruins, rob it's you, so talking to me Drake Belmont.
This is the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament one pm Eastern
this afternoon.
Speaker 2: Yeah, day game, Adam to Robert there, I did bet
it at minus eleven and a half.
Speaker 3: The trouble is it's thirteen now.
Speaker 2: So as we do the show, this game continues to
increase people on the Belmont side. Drake played last night.
Drake did play Belmont extremely tough the first time around.
Believe that one was in Drake, but then the second
time around Belmont had their way. They won't that one
by thirteen or fourteen points. It's time for Casey, Alexander
and this team to turn it on. This is gonna
end up being, in all likelihood a one bid team.
I hate to say that, because I think that Belmont
is as good a mid major as there is outside
of you know, a team like maybe Saint Louis or whatnot.
But I still think Belmont would be competitive against the
the Vcus, the the Atlantic Tens of the world. I
just they are that good at this point in time. Now,
what's what's bothersome a little bit with Belmont is the
fact that the defense has slipped over the past. I'm
going to say seven or eight games prior to maybe
the first week in February. Through the first week in February,
Belmont you could find them at the top of the
defensive efficiency standings inside the Missouri Valley. You don't find
that anymore. Starting to give up points, which is typical
Belmont of the past. But they're just so gifted offensively
that they overcome it. The amount of shooters. I know
Lunblom gets a lot of accolade, but guys like Jack
Smiley and others who shoot threes on this team, and
the offense that they run is so good. I do
think that they're in a prime spot here. Drake had
to play last night, have to show up early, you know,
basically this morning, right that's a noontime game in Saint Louis,
So there's not a lot of rest for Drake here
to get back up on the horse. And Drake is
just you know, it's not typical Drakes. It's a bad
defensive team, and you just don't want to be a
bad defensive team against this offense. Belmont rested I saw
no reason not to lay eleven and a half. I'm
not going to discourage people from laying if you can
get I'm just looking here at numbers at him as
we speak, and I mean, I believe it or not.
I see fourteens out there now, which is it's just
probably going to continue to go up. At that price,
you can't really recommend it. I think Robert, you got
a good number. If you did bet at at eleven
and a half, you got a good number. I think
I did as well. We'll take our seat. I think
Belmont can win by up to fifteen points, but there's.
Speaker 3: No wiggle room left anymore.
Speaker 2: Right, you don't get those two baskets for the wiggle
room anymore. So I do like Belmont. I think they'll
do the right thing here. And it's just a tough
spot for Drake.
Speaker 1: Okay, So a couple of things you can do. One
hope for a slow start, or hope Drake gets a
bucket and then try to ngame it. That's always an option,
you know, there's especially at arch madness. So I think
this is a good because we don't know if we'll
definitely come back to the Missouri Valley, Like, this is
a good spot to maybe bring up the very highly
publicized mar you know, Missouri Valley under they all go under.
It doesn't matter what the number is, they steam over,
they still go under. I don't really want to talk
about that because it's like I still think I think
you need to acknowledge it. I don't think it's like
something that you can just blindly bet. But let's just
put it into the context of this handicap for a second. Okay,
so historic in this building, offense has been harder to
come by. So what does that mean for this game one?
Maybe you know, if you get a seven to five start,
you may actually get that in play minus eleven and
a half. Let's say it's Drake eight to five out
of the gate media timeout, you might get your eleven
and a half with Belmont. The other thing you can
do is play Belmont first half for a half unit.
If it doesn't come in, come over the top with
a full unit on the second half or a you know,
just break it up however you want, but you'll end
up getting the better number with Belmont. Why do I
agree with you, Rob? Why do I also like Belmont?
Because let's just assume this is a tough venue to
shoot in. Well, Belmont's beginning the rim as efficient as
any team in this league this year. You know, they
shoot the ball well. Like I think Belmont gets billed
as this offensive team. We know they can shoot, but
they are a very efficient rim offense. They're really the
most complete offensive team in this league. I don't think
like if there is a some sort of voodoo in
this building, which there seems to be every year, I
think Belmont would be one of the teams that, like
is less likely to fall victim to it because they
get they can get to the rim and score at
an efficient rate. You know, one thing I want to
point out about Drake Listen set Southern Illinois kind was
kind of a decent matchup for them. That's a team
that struggles to score the basketball, that can't shoot, and
of course they were able to win a game in
the sixties. Drake had lost nine straight games prior to
that game. The other thing that you mentioned Rob Bellmont
won both of the regular season meetings, Like Drake kind
of shot the lights out in those games, and in
the second one, Belmont still dropped one oh three and
won by double digits. So I think you're I think
you're asking for it if you take Drake. I guess
I could see like there is a point where people
like people are gonna say, well, where do I push back?
I got to push back at some point, But I
don't know, even at fourteen fourteen and a half, I
don't think I want any part of Drake here. I
just think it is too good. And their ability to
get a fishing baskets in a in a arena that
has been inefficient for offenses over the years. Just say
you know to me that that says Bellmont inn pass.
Speaker 3: And I think you know.
Speaker 2: We probably don't go into depth about Belmont enough, Adam,
simply because they don't come up off and on this show,
and we don't extend analysis out enough when it comes
to their gaze. But I do want to point out,
as much as I talk about Lundblade and Casey Alexander's
love for him, claiming he's the best three point shooter
he's seen in his coaching career, to your point about
getting to the rim, Belmont's never had a big man.
Speaker 3: And when I say never, I'll go back to my
time when my son started there in twelve.
Speaker 2: I think eleven twenty twelve haven't had a big man
like Sharnowski ever in that time. And Sharnowski just doesn't
get a lot of credit for what he does defensively
and offensively at the rim, even screening guys to get
layups uncontested. It's a really good offense that, as you mentioned,
gets to the rim. I always come out here and
talk about their three point prowess, but their entire offense
and their ability to score inside the arc and get
to the free throw and to make free throws is
a huge plus two. Drake just doesn't have enough of
that this year.
Speaker 1: I think I see, I think I see by you
in the chat, but I did just text him to
see what he wants to throw into the parlay. Jose
Perez is a question, and I want to talk about
this one because there's there's talking points here. So he says,
by you, do you like Winthrop? I mean, I suppose
Keith can jump in and you know, chime in in
the chat. But Rob, let's talk about this game. This
is a conference tournament game. This is early So we
killed two birds with one stone right there. Because I
know people want some daytime action conference tournament action, and
Jose says, do you like Winthrop? And what I say is,
you know, you couple things here, like so Duncombe is
more than likely out for Winthrop. Here, everything I'm reading
says that there's it would be shocking to see him
play today. Now, of course, Rob, I come on here
last yesterday, say there's no way that that the guy
from Lindon Wood is going to play with that hamstring injury.
And he's out there dragging his leg up and down
the court going for like twenty I couldn't believe it.
He played pretty much the whole game. Now, he was
clearly compromised, but still the fact that he got out
there and and played. You know, it is conference tournament
time right some it's there's no tomorrow, so it's like
almost like if you can give it a go, you
gotta give it. You know, there's there's no next game.
I guess as the point I'm trying to make that
being said it all, could we lose him? Surprising?
Speaker 4: I think it lost.
Speaker 2: See you guys, Okay, Adam obviously has lost all all
ability to connect to us, So let me go ahead
and see if he can get back here.
Speaker 3: I don't know, guys, I'm looking at the chat now.
Speaker 2: If you can hear me, and if in fact you
can tell what's going on, let me know and I will.
Speaker 1: All right, Am I back. I can't tell if that
was me or that that was you that got bumped,
but we are all right. It looked like our stream
guy knocked down for a second. My internet's working perfectly,
so I don't know what that. You know, I'm connected
on like multiple things. Here can you hear me?
Speaker 2: Okay, Rob, I can't wanted me to take over for
a minute, take the wheel, I would have.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, so here we go. Yeah, so okay, it
must have been me that that bump. Well, it seems
like I'm back. And what I was saying before I
got bumped was, you know, when I saw this number
this morning, I figured that the Duncombe News was baked in,
you know. I figured that was I had already kind
of ruled him out and thought the number was was
probably good. It looks like Charleston Southern's taking a little
bit of money here even since then, So I guess
my question is, I mean, this seems like a bad
matchup for Winthrop regardless, and now you've got their best
player or one of their best players is going to
be out. Man. I kind of wish I kind of
wish I took Charleston Southern earlier at five. I guess
is my you know, answer to Jose No, I don't
like Winthrop. I think they could be vulnerable here. And
I'm a little disappointed at myself for not just you know,
kind of jumping when I kind of knew Duncombe wasn't
gonna play. Because I think now that I know it's
three and a half, I think I take five with
Charleston Southern not a neutral. So sorry for the disjointed
breakdown there. If you're watching this on demand, I apologize,
but go ahead, Charleston Southern Winthrop finish up what you
had to say about.
Speaker 2: That one extremely close matchup both times, Adam, Regardless Duncombe
went crazy.
Speaker 3: One game didn't really matter.
Speaker 2: Charleston has won one of these games by two, lost
the other one by four, so you could tell how
competitive it is between these two. Charleston actually, for what
it's worth, outshot Winthrop in both of these games from
inside the ark and from beyond the arc, the better
shooting team twice now in both arenas, so it would
be hard, especially as you mentioned the early number plus five.
For those who got there early and took that, you're
in good shape. I would think here down to three
and a half or four. Now, Still, like I say,
if you're going to reference the season history here, you
would still want to take four in a tournament style
game on a neutral floor with the team that was
the better shooting team.
Speaker 3: Twice Winthrop didn't.
Speaker 2: Have answers the second time, not that it was a
huge significant gap in shooting, but still Charleston Southern was
the better shooting team. So reasons to go ahead and
play Winthrop I think are less than what they are
to take points with Charleston Southern. However, all that being said,
these games when they're lined in the three and a
half area and the extension that you could get at
the end of the game on the foul line would
be a little bit scary for me. Winthrop, if they
had a two point lead with fifty seconds left, could
turn that into a five point win. And you don't
get there because the other side came down and missed
a three, and they made two more free throws, et cetera, etc.
It's that close of a game. I did look at
the total here, guys, because the total was very high
in both of these. I think it was one fifty
eight and one seventy in those two games. Here we're
sitting at one sixty two pretty firmly. You take a
look at a lot of these conference tournament games today
and you see extreme pushes toward the under, which is
commonplace at conference tournament time. Just wake up, find an
opener bedding under. But here that hasn't happened, which kind
of suggests that early money doesn't believe this is gonna
be one of those low scoring games. It should be
high tempo. Again, they've played twice, they played the same
way twice. Who's to think it would be a different
way this time around. So maybe the numbers a little
bit too high for me to get involved at one
sixty two, but I could see somebody playing that, So again,
I think I would lean dog as my preferred play here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I should be very clear because I was
like in the process of like, I guess getting disconnected
or whatever. Like Duncom is clearly Winter's best played eighteen
point four points per game, nine boards. He left the
Charleston Southern game. That was when he got hurt. Winthrop
lost that game by two, and even earlier this year
they only won by four at home, so you know
they've they've failed to cover the at least the opener
in either of those games, the opener of what this
game would have been. And when the really kind of
barely got by Presbyterian seventy four to seventy, they were
seven and a half point favorite in the last game.
So yeah, that is that is concerning. But I do
feel like I've missed the number at this point, so
I'll be a spectator there. But I couldn't really fault
anyone for looking toward Charleston Southern Colsey. To answer your question,
I think if you could get like a four or
four and a half, because it was four and a
half for a while, so I think i'd want four
three and a half. I just I hate that scenario
where you could take a number and then it lands
for and then you lose, and then you could have
won had you had you bet it sooner. So for me,
it would be four or better to look at Charleston
Southern that and that's just me personally. But yeah, an
interesting game. And again this is why this is kind
of why I haven't bet anything yet Rob for today,
even though I like planned a bet like but there's
gonna be especially like back to back game type scenarios.
If someone's out, I'm gonna want to know that. And
for me also, it's just I've had a couple of
lines move against me the last couple of days, so
exercising a little more, I'm not gonna have the fomo here,
you know what I'm saying, Like, I'm just if I
miss one, I missed one, And that's kind of where
I'm at with Charleston Southern. If I loved it, I
would have bet it this morning. So you know, just
do what you will with that. All right, Let's go
back to the main board for a minute. Keith Bayou
bets Landry has has come in with his parlay leg.
He cashed with the over and Colgate Loyola for us
yesterday as part of the parlay, we hit two of three.
We've got to hit one of these sooner or later.
We really need to just to get back to like
even at this point. So let's go to the Atlantic ten.
Rob Dayton vcu By. You likes Dayton on the money line,
I think it's minus one thirty. I'll let you double
check your odd screen and just give me like what
a good market price for that is. But he wants
to call it Dayton money line. Hey, we've kind of
talked about this team last couple of times out they're
playing much better and interesting stuff from Bayo. I didn't
really think about this much, but because because Phil Martelli
just got there, I didn't realize that his name was
getting tossed around for Providence. But it makes complete sense
because of course Phil Martelli junior all those good years
at Bryant right down the road. I don't know how
much the stock I put into that, but I mean,
Virginia Commonwealth's last coach was pretty much already at Virginia
at this time of the year last year, Like it
was like already like a done deal, and it does happen.
So rob your thoughts VCU Dayton and do you put
any stock into coaches starting to have one eye on
something else at this point the season.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure Martelly at his age would have one.
Speaker 2: I think he's more of a guy who, like a
lot of the younger coaches are, that are in it
to finish it and then move on. I don't think
he would abandon the team as far as not paying
attention to game plan et cetera, et cetera, the stuff
that the coach is responsible for. I don't think that
the distractions would be enough to deter him from this.
Speaker 3: VCU mission.
Speaker 2: And you know that's the one thing that scared me
off of this game. We're gonna ride with value, obviously,
we're gonna ride with the hot team. Dayton here money
line at him. I saw minus one thirty, but.
Speaker 1: That's what I got too. We'll use minus one thirty
for the parlan.
Speaker 3: In our line of work, we do not pay a
lot of attention to.
Speaker 2: Ap top twenty fives, coaches, top twenty fives, whatever the
top twenty five is, and we don't pay a lot
of attention to bracketologists until it comes to situational stuff.
And in this instance, I just find that almost every
single bracket expert that you find, and they all put
them together a shade differently, but they all come to
the same conclusion that VCU is in an absolute must
win situation here.
Speaker 3: If they want to make March Madness, this is the
sense of urgency game for them.
Speaker 2: Drop this one. You're not getting in. Dayton's going to
go buy you pretty good pun there right by you.
They're going to go past you where that is concerned.
So for VCU, who the sense of urgency is there,
and they're certainly good enough, Adam, there's certainly good enough
personnel wise to play with Dayton. I don't want to
bet or I don't want to step in front of
the freight train that currently is Dayton. I don't want
to step in front of VCU. And there must win
sense of urgency type of mindset that they have tonight.
It's probably why the game is lined as closely. All right,
let's just say this. The game is lined appropriately in
my estimation. You can stand on one side of the
fence or the other. We're choosing the Dayton side here.
But it's the one reason why for me I got
a little bit scared of Dayton here in this game,
just because BCU you're probably gonna get their best effort
of the season here tonight. If you don't, then maybe
the coach did check out, maybe the team wilted under
the pressure, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 3: But I'm not in that locker room. I can't make
that assessment.
Speaker 1: Well, Rob, I'll tell you why I'm a little scared
of Dayton here because the last time these twots played,
I had Dayton it's a client play and got my
teeth kicked in in that game they never had a chance.
Ninety nine seventy three totally dominated. That was a Friday
night at the sea at the Seagull Center in Richmond, Virginia.
But you can make a couple points here based off
of that one. I've been to both. There is few
better atmospheres than a Friday night in Dayton when the
fan base is engaged, which is almost all the time.
And actually, if you if you followed Dayton Twitter, they
were like getting on the students and stuff earlier this
year for not like having the student section completely full.
The arena is always full Dayton. That's a great basketball city.
Like they're going to support that team regardless. But very
rarely do you see like they're getting on Rob. You
had like date and Twitter getting on the students like
how is the student section not completely full? Like this?
This team is still very good, still has a lot
to play for. Since that game, they've rattled off sixth straight.
So I'll tell you what last game in the regular
season Friday Night UD Arena. Full marks for home court.
I've always said that Dayton Dayton, I always give full
marks for home court. That's gonna be an awesome atmosphere
for them at home. So there's you know, like part
of me wants to just go back and say, Okay,
you weren't wrong, You were just early right, Like your
handicap wasn't wrong. You just Dayton just wasn't playing the
way you expected them to play. Yet now they've been
playing that way for six straight games. But but also
they've been playing that way for six straight games, right,
and you have to like, can they can they run
it and finish the regular season on a seven game
win streak. You know, during that stretch they have benefited.
Davidson's not a very good team. George Mason hasn't played well.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 1: The win over Saint Louis, to me, was just as
much Saint Louis starting to run out of a little gas,
Like you could you could see that coming from a
mile away. With Saint Louis, how they had played pretty
much since the Dayton game, the first one when they
ran them out of the gym. But like they go
on the road and get wins over George, Washington and Richmond.
That's pretty impressive to me. So I guess like I'm
with First of all, I'm not gonna play against Bayou
here because he's been really good and he won yesterday.
You know I want, I mean, I want to love
Dayton in the spot because I'm stubborn Rob and I
loved him in the first meeting and it was a
client play for me then, and it's like, you know,
I want to like them in that regard. I just
don't know if I could do it off the six
game win streak, but you know what, we're gonna put
it in for Bayou. He's in the parlay today. He
likes Dayton Flyers on the money line, and that's where
we're gonna go with that one, Adam. Yeah, we have
covered some of the early games, and we're gonna cover
another one of the early games, and then we'll go
to Rob to get his parlay leg. But let's go
the only Coastal. I literally thought it, Rob, I was
like thinking, Am I had I still almost said Colonial,
But the Coastal is gonna start this afternoon one game,
two PM. The only sort of playing game in this league.
Believe it's the two worst teams. I think they take
everyone and so this is gonna be North Carolina A
and T and Northeastern playing in Washington, DC at two
pm Eastern today. Garth wants to talk total, So I'm
gonna let you kick this one off. A and T Northeastern.
He likes the over What do you say about that?
Speaker 3: Probably no reason not to.
Speaker 2: That's what I'll say about that. They only played once.
Coastal LI is like a lot of other conferences now
where you don't get to play everybody in a rematch situation.
So this game was played way back on New Year's Eve,
December thirty. First one was the total that they racked
up in that game, eighty five to seventy four, win
four North Eastern, one of the few wins that they
had this year. But it's the two worst defenses in
this league. Both play with and A and T plays
with a little more pace, but not much more pace.
Northeastern we've talked about this season having some offensive capabilities
but zero defensive capabilities. I mean, when you start putting
these two together in a game like this, you could
probably see a duplicate of what happened the first time
eighty five seventy four. If I just go back here
real quick to my notes, both teams shot it really well,
fifty six percent inside the arc for both sides. Both
teams shot it pretty well from outside. Or excuse me,
it's A and T that didn't shoot it well from
outside the arc, but Northeastern did. They got to the
free thrown a little free throw line, a little bit,
fifty nine free throws in that game. So everything you
would expect from a lack of a better term, roll
the balls out type offensive game, that's what you're going
to get here. You'll get the page, you'll get the opportunity,
you'll get the written zero resistance on defense. I don't
know why you wouldn't play it over. Let me put
it this way, I certainly wouldn't play under. So again, Garth,
I would be with it. I took a serious look
at this game, not quite sure why I didn't pull it.
There was a huge push down on the total from
one fifty eight all the way down to one fifty two. Again,
you're playing in an arena where the rims are somewhat strange,
so who knows how they come out shooting. I guess
that would be your counter to d you like over.
Maybe there's enough time left in a game if you
do come out slow shooting, to go ahead and get
over this number. I just spoke earlier about a game
I had last night's Sacred Heart in Iona. Wasn't exactly
a first half where they lit it up, but the
second half once they got adjusted one hundred and eleven points.
So something like that could happen here, Garth. I wouldn't
play under, so I will support you're over here.
Speaker 3: Again.
Speaker 2: It's conference tournament time, where these pushes toward under are
just commonplace.
Speaker 3: It's what they do. They wake up. They've been under
in all these games where there are going to be
some foreign rims.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all I have to add here Northeastern has not
won a game since January fifteen. It's certainly but to
their I guess defense here going into this game, which
is against another team that hasn't won many games at
this year. They did win the regular season meeting, as
you said way back on New Year's Eve. You know,
Northeastern has been crippled by injuries this year. So I'm
going off a hand, but I imagine they had a
player or two more than they have right now for
that game. But you know they they really didn't look
bad against Monmouth earlier this week. I caught a good
amount of that game. You know, they put up eighty
three points. Obviously, offense has been the main concern for
this Northeastern team. They kind of played William and Mary tough.
This is this to me is kind of a true
coin flip. But if Northeastern shows up, I really wouldn't
be that surprised if they won the game. Again, I
think you're I think if you if you want to
bet that game, stick with Garth, play the total, or
find something else to bet. All right, Rob, do you
know what you want to do with your with the
parlay Lake?
Speaker 3: I do, all right, go ahead choices.
Speaker 2: Once again, I say this every day comes down to
a couple for the most part. But I'm gonna do
exactly what Garth is doing in his game, and I'm
just gonna push back against a total move that I
think is just too much. At this point in time,
Valpo plays Bradley, Valparizo plays Bradley. Tonight, Missouri Valley Conference
still be the early game in the two game.
Speaker 3: Nightstand.
Speaker 2: That is the Missouri Valley Conference Arch Madness. Tonight, this
total opened and a half probably appropriate. It's been bett
all the way down to one thirty three and a half,
so you have an eight point move on a total
against this particular number one thirty three and a half.
Bradley this year twenty eight and four to the over
one thirty three and a half, thirty two games played,
twenty eight times Bradley games got over one thirty three
and a half, including the two times they played Valpo.
Speaker 3: Both went over. And they're not way back past history.
Speaker 2: I mean they played as recently as November third, and
then they played February excuse me, February third and February eighteenth,
so two games last month. Bradley's just been that team
this year. They can score enough. Valparizo down the stretch
was playing at an overclip where I cashed a couple
where they get underpriced. And last night again last night,
Valpo plays a grinder against Indiana State where Valparizo shot
absolutely miserably in that game Valparizo thirty eight percent from two,
Valparizo thirty.
Speaker 3: Four percent from three.
Speaker 2: The whole field goal percentage was beneath what they generally
put up there and they got caught in a low
scoring game. But I don't know that even then, Adam,
that game went one twenty five. We're asking for one
thirty four here. It's not that much more than that,
and it's not that many more shot makes against the
brad Nothing Indiana State it's a really good defense because
they're not. But Bradley's not a good defense either at
this point in time, far more offensive minded than Indiana State.
So for me, I just this falls into the category
of playing the number, gonna fight back against the resistance here,
because I think this is just I've said it twice
in this show. It's a general thing that betters do
come conference tournament time. Not that betting unders is wrong
in conference tournament time, it plays out a lot that way,
But every so often you'll run into an instance like
this where one side, the Bradley side, is so strong
against one thirty three and a half twenty eight and
four is outrageously good seven out of it eight every
eight times you're gonna win this bet if you play
Bradley full game over.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna play it today.
Speaker 2: It'll be my parlay leg Bradley Valpariso or Valparizo, Bradley,
I guess because Valpariso's on top in the rotation eight
fifty three, eight fifty four. That game over one thirty
three and a half, and it's it's readily available.
Speaker 3: Guys. You can find that just about everywhere at this
point in.
Speaker 1: Time, all right, I I mean, I'll just throw it
out that I do. I do side lean I suppose
would be Bradley. I don't know if I'll have anything
in that game, but we've only got about five minutes left,
so I'm just gonna move on to what I'll use
for the parlay. And I already know your opinion on
this team, Rob, I know you're gonna agree with it,
because you've talked about liking this team. I'm gonna use
Austin p I'm gonna lay the points. If you could
check the odds screen there, I think if can I say,
is it okay? If I say eleven minus one twenty
because it has moved since you got on air a
little bit. I wanted eleven or better? Is it eleven
and a half most places now? Because if it is,
I'll just say eleven minus one twenty.
Speaker 3: I'm showing, Yeah, I'm showing eleven and a half. You
know what, there's a couple of this is a weird game, madam.
Speaker 2: There's a couple of ten and a half's yeah, and
commonplace books, and then there's a straight twelve. But most
of it's eleven and a half minus ten cents, So.
Speaker 1: We'll go eleven minus one twenty. That's no problem. I
always try to give the benefit of the doubt for
the parlay because again, it's gonna come out plus money anyway,
and as always shop it around. I got to see
Stetson play last week. They played against a very uninterested
Florida Golf Coast Coast team. In the game I was
at blew them out, and I did not. I was
not particularly impressed with them, despite the fact that they
blew Florida Golf Coast out in that game, because I
just felt like FGCU. I had seen fgcu's game day
before and felt like they kind of looked uninterested in
that game. So what was very surprising to me, Rob
was that Stetson came out on Wednesday and just destroyed
Eastern Kentucky, dropped ninety two points on Eastern Kentucky. I
I would I didn't play it. I didn't have any
action in that game, but I gotta be honest, that
was a surprising result. Probably one of the more surprising
results to me of that whole day of games was
that Stetson just came out, dropped ninety and absolutely blitzed
a team that I thought was a lot better than them.
Now this would be a say that I thought Eastern
Kentucky was better than Stetson. I know that Austin p
is better than Stetson, and maybe from our discussion the
other day, maybe better than all of these teams.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: I think they're the team to beat in this league,
even with as good as Central Arkansas has been. And
what Stetson's gonna do is try to play zone. It
really is their only answer. Stetson's defense is not very good,
and I just like, you can't. You can't just sit
in a zone and expect to stay close with this
Austin pet They can shoot. They move the ball, top
fifty three point shooting team all season, top fifty. You know,
they assist that their assist turnover ratio is thirty fifth.
They move the ball, they don't turn it over. They're
the exact type of offense that you want against a
bad zone, which is essentially what Stetson has. If they
get out of that zone, it's not going to get
any easier because they're just like Austin P, in my opinion,
is just much much better like across the board. And
so for me, like, yeah, you have a scenario where
on Wednesday, Rob they were able to bomb Eastern Kentucky,
who's been a mess pretty much all season for ninety two.
I just don't know that you do that here. And
even if they do, even if they are scoring, like
I don't know that they hold Austin P under mid eighties,
you know they might hit ninety in this game, So
I know you always say the math works out right, Like,
I don't see how Austin P doesn't put up eighty
five plus in this game, eighty plus eighty five plus,
and if they do, it's just really hard to believe
Stetson is within ten with just how many good looks
that Austin P is likely to generate against this zone.
So my number was kind of right on this. I
did not play this yet for clients. I don't know
if I will, but for our parlay, Austin P minus
eleven like this just feels like a mismatch to me,
and I think it's going to be a blowout. What
do you have it? What would you what would your
look be on the total in that game?
Speaker 2: Well, I think you hit on it when you said
Austin P should get to like eighty five. I would
look their team total over I don't believe in Stetson's defense,
and I'm gonna just go back to where you started
that really quick here because we're under the gun time wise.
Speaker 3: But I was shocked.
Speaker 2: I mean, money came in on Eku that day. Money
came in pretty strong on Eku. In the first score
I saw, Stetson was out of the gates as if
West Eastern Kentucky didn't know the game started, and they
never let up. So, you know, I use that phrase
if somebody's got to pay. That's not necessarily the case here.
But I think that the idea behind this would be
Stetson probably had a freakish performance that was more.
Speaker 3: Of a mirage than reality.
Speaker 2: And even if they do score, Austin P is gonna
score more than they are, So I would have an
Austin P team total look up and over.
Speaker 1: All, right, Yeah, I mean Austin Listen, if you're gonna
lay double digits with a team, usually you probably like
their team total over as well. I think I'm good
with either of those. I'm gonna lay the eleven in
the parlay, but but I think you could see unlimited
scoring from the Governors today, Rob, so I could get
down with a team total over as well. What we're
gonna do with the parlay three teamer we're locked in.
We're going Austin p minus eleven minus won twenty juice
attached to that one by you is gonna go Dayton
money line minus one thirty and then we've got Rob
Bino Bradley Balpo full game over one thirty three and
a half. That is your three teamer for today. That
is your show. Hopefully the uh I'm in heaven here Rob,
with all the lights that basically glowing. Hopefully that wasn't
too distracting and we worked around a little technical difficulty.
But again Rob and I will be back tomorrow morning
with Kelly and Vegas. Eleven fifteen am, eleven AM. Come
for you know, you gotta come for Gianni. He's gonna
rattle off probably like ten to fifteen sharp angles. So
you're gonna want to be in the building for that,
and then Rob and I'll come on and talk games
for the rest of the hour on wager Talk Last Call,
and per my text here, I believe we're doing it
on Sunday this week too, so no days off for
this duo. I believe we're doing Last Call on Sunday
as well. Thanks for tuning in, guys. We very much
appreciate you tuning in, commenting like subscribe, checking out the
plays that we have posted at wager Talk, and we
will see you guys in the morning.