1 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: Welcome everybody to Week fourteen of the NFL. This is 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:08,320 your NFL presidential address, and I am Lawrence President. I'm 3 00:00:08,359 --> 00:00:10,160 excited to be here. We got a lot of NFL 4 00:00:10,199 --> 00:00:13,359 games to go through. What do you get on this show? 5 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:16,960 You get bets on every single NFL game and a 6 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:19,960 pass here or there, which I consider to be a 7 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:24,359 bet because hey, if you don't lose money, you kept 8 00:00:24,399 --> 00:00:27,480 it and you can bet it on another game. Let's 9 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,359 start right off the bat with a pass. Dallas playing 10 00:00:30,399 --> 00:00:32,880 in Detroit. This is a Thursday night game and I'm 11 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:36,679 not passing on this game. I'm actually betting large on 12 00:00:36,719 --> 00:00:39,560 this game. I have a five percent play on this game. 13 00:00:39,759 --> 00:00:42,560 Five percent plays are the biggest plays we give out 14 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:46,719 at wager Talk. So guys, my apologies. I can't break 15 00:00:46,759 --> 00:00:49,320 this game down. However, I do have a promo code 16 00:00:49,359 --> 00:00:53,159 for you. Yes, I do half price. If you want 17 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:56,799 that play, just head over to wagertalk dot com and 18 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:59,799 use the promo code half price. Okay, enough with all 19 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:04,480 of that, Let's get to some picks. Washington in Minnesota, 20 00:01:04,519 --> 00:01:07,359 and this is well, who wants to win the game? 21 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,599 Kind of a game? Why are we overthinking this? I 22 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:14,480 bet Minnesota under fourteen and a half points team total 23 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:18,280 last week against Seattle. They still have yet to score. 24 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:20,920 I think they're going to struggle to score here as well. 25 00:01:21,159 --> 00:01:24,359 We actually saw Washington's defense step up and play well 26 00:01:24,439 --> 00:01:29,280 last game, and Minnesota's defense is excellent. Forty two on tap. 27 00:01:29,799 --> 00:01:32,879 Where are these points coming from? This is one of 28 00:01:32,879 --> 00:01:35,879 my favorite totals of the week. Don't overthink it. Just 29 00:01:36,079 --> 00:01:41,920 bet the under. Miami playing New York the Jets plus 30 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,400 two and a half and a team that looks like 31 00:01:44,519 --> 00:01:49,400 they want to win. Why, Well, because like all horrible franchises, 32 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,239 they don't get it. But that's okay. It's not like 33 00:01:53,359 --> 00:01:56,480 they need a quarterback in the future. Maybe they should 34 00:01:56,480 --> 00:02:00,000 win the next four games and really screw up their 35 00:02:00,159 --> 00:02:05,959 draft pick. Miami. Well, same old thing. Let's go nine 36 00:02:05,959 --> 00:02:09,719 and seven or eight and eight or whatever equals to seventeen. 37 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,599 Eight and eight and nine and seven do not equal seventeen. 38 00:02:13,879 --> 00:02:18,840 But you get my point. Two horrible franchises who don't 39 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:23,280 understand the importance of losing when you can't make the playoffs. 40 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,479 So who's gonna win this game? Who's gonna cover? Well, 41 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,000 I'm going to look to take under the total of 42 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:32,080 forty and a half. Yes I am. I'm not gonna 43 00:02:32,159 --> 00:02:36,360 lay points on a Miami team in beautiful warm weather 44 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:41,400 heading north playing in the frigid tundra. And I'm definitely 45 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:43,840 not gonna bet on the New York Jets. I was 46 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:46,960 on the New York Jets under in our last game. 47 00:02:47,319 --> 00:02:50,240 It was seven to nothing with two minutes to go 48 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,280 in the first half, and everything went wrong. The game 49 00:02:53,319 --> 00:02:55,319 went over. Well, I'm going to go back to the 50 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:58,240 under here. I think we're gonna see shitty weather. I 51 00:02:58,319 --> 00:03:00,240 don't think the New York Jets are going to put 52 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:05,000 up a ton, and same with Miami. The total forty 53 00:03:05,159 --> 00:03:09,319 and a half. Let's go under. Tennessee going into Cleveland 54 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:13,240 Cleveland minus four, a total here of thirty four and 55 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:17,039 a half. This game is an outright pass, guys. The 56 00:03:17,199 --> 00:03:21,439 problem with getting late in the season is, all of 57 00:03:21,439 --> 00:03:24,680 a sudden, a lot of teams are playing meaningless games. 58 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:28,159 We were able to find a bet in the meaningless 59 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:30,919 Washington Minnesota game. We were able to find a bet 60 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:33,840 in the meaningless Miami New York Jets game. I got 61 00:03:34,039 --> 00:03:37,960 nothing for you on this Tennessee Cleveland game. Pittsburgh going 62 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:41,120 into Baltimore and I like Baltimore here minus the sixth. 63 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:43,960 There are five and a halfs out there, and yes, 64 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,719 kudos to Pittsburgh were picking up Adam thieland today how 65 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:52,240 much do I care? Zero amount? This Pittsburgh Steeler team 66 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:55,759 is terrible. I took Butalo as my ats bet last 67 00:03:55,759 --> 00:03:58,960 week against Pittsburgh. I'm gonna do the same with Baltimore. 68 00:03:59,199 --> 00:04:01,879 This game is in Baltimore, and I don't think this 69 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,319 game is gonna be close. Now. I understand that Baltimore 70 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:07,560 is not the team that we thought they were, but 71 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:11,080 this Pittsburgh Steelers team is on a free fall. Their 72 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:17,439 defense is good, not great, Their offense is bad not terrible. 73 00:04:17,759 --> 00:04:21,079 That's pretty much how I break them down. As for Baltimore, 74 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,279 I think their defense is getting better as the year progresses, 75 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:27,879 and I think their offense is finding its way. We 76 00:04:27,959 --> 00:04:30,839 know Baltimore is gonna get points in this game. I 77 00:04:30,879 --> 00:04:33,639 don't think Pittsburgh's gonna get a whole lot. I would 78 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:38,319 look to take the Pittsburgh Steelers team total under I 79 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:41,279 think it's gonna be around seventeen and a half, and 80 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:45,439 I think Baltimore wins this game going away. I also 81 00:04:45,519 --> 00:04:47,959 think they win the division, so take a look at 82 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:52,279 that as well. Let's take the Baltimore Ravens minus five 83 00:04:52,319 --> 00:04:56,759 and a half. As for Seattle playing Atlanta, I'm gonna 84 00:04:56,800 --> 00:05:01,000 look at Atlanta here, plus seven and a half. Home dog, 85 00:05:01,759 --> 00:05:05,160 horrible team. Their coach is likely going to get fired. 86 00:05:05,439 --> 00:05:10,360 They can't find any offensive rhythm, and their defensive mediocre. However, 87 00:05:10,759 --> 00:05:13,360 this is not a good spot for Seattle. They got 88 00:05:13,439 --> 00:05:17,079 the Rams coming up. They're hungry. This is one of 89 00:05:17,079 --> 00:05:19,879 those look ahead spots. It's on the road. I know 90 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:24,120 Seattle is a road warrior team. It's just simply too 91 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,600 many points. And not only that, but Atlanta's running an 92 00:05:27,639 --> 00:05:32,639 extremely conservative offense, which, although doesn't necessarily result in thirty 93 00:05:32,639 --> 00:05:35,439 one points a game, it does result in thirty one 94 00:05:35,519 --> 00:05:38,439 minutes of possession a game. This is an Atlanta team 95 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,120 that is running the ball, is slowing the clock down, 96 00:05:41,439 --> 00:05:45,319 and is trying to play small ball. So with that said, 97 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:49,319 take the plus seven and a half. Now let's talk 98 00:05:49,319 --> 00:05:52,279 about the Jacksonville Indianapolis game. And this line freaks me out. 99 00:05:52,399 --> 00:05:55,439 I have absolutely no idea why the Indianapolis Colts are 100 00:05:55,439 --> 00:05:58,759 avered here. You want to talk about disrespect, this is 101 00:05:58,879 --> 00:06:03,000 like calling the present that is the type of disrespect 102 00:06:03,079 --> 00:06:06,199 Jacksonville is getting right now. This team has won three 103 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:10,680 games in a row. They held Tennessee to three points 104 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:14,839 and the Chargers to six. They're scoring over twenty points 105 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,680 in every game they played. They've won four of their 106 00:06:17,759 --> 00:06:22,079 last five. Indianapolis they've lost two in a row. They've 107 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,399 lost three of their last four, and they have a 108 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:30,720 quarterback with a broken leg. Why is the home team 109 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,360 a dog here? I don't understand it at all. One 110 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:37,480 of my favorite bets of the week, A circa bet 111 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:42,319 for sure, likely a client play Jacksonville Jaguars plus the 112 00:06:42,399 --> 00:06:46,519 one and a half or two against the Indianapolis Colts. 113 00:06:46,639 --> 00:06:50,360 Let's move our attention to Chicago and green Bay. I 114 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:52,639 like the dog hare guys. Now. I don't like them 115 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:56,199 a ton because I think Chicago is getting it done 116 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:58,639 with smoking mirrors. But the bottom line is whoever they 117 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:00,800 put in front of them is getting it done. And 118 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:04,240 green Bay, this team's already lost to Carolina at home 119 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:07,399 and Cleveland on the road. I don't think this green 120 00:07:07,439 --> 00:07:10,439 Bay team is very impressive. The green Bay Detroit game 121 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:14,360 came down to fourth downs. Green Bay converted two, Detroit 122 00:07:14,439 --> 00:07:17,759 miss two. Green Bay last won the game. I think 123 00:07:17,759 --> 00:07:21,519 Green Bay might win this game against Chicago, but man, 124 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:26,439 given the weather and given Chicago's run offense, where did 125 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:28,959 this come from? I mean, they might have the best 126 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,000 runoffense in the league right now. They're going to run 127 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,480 the ball. They're gonna slow this game to a bloody 128 00:07:34,759 --> 00:07:38,720 croll forty four and a half. I'd like to take 129 00:07:38,759 --> 00:07:41,079 the under, but I'm not going to. Instead, we're just 130 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:44,120 going to focus our tension on the dog. Can Chicago 131 00:07:44,199 --> 00:07:47,680 win this game out right? Sure, they're beating everybody they play. Plus, 132 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:50,759 we've already seen Green Bay lose. I think green Bay 133 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,800 gets it done, but I think this game is within three. 134 00:07:54,439 --> 00:07:58,079 Take Chicago plus the six and a half. New Orleans 135 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:00,879 plus eight and a half playing Tampa Bay. The problem 136 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:03,600 here is there's too many injuries in Tampa Bay. I'm 137 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:06,680 gonna bottom line this game. New Orleans is one and 138 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,600 eleven this year. In the first quarter, that's what we're 139 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,680 gonna bet. We're gonna bet Tampa Bay in the first quarter. 140 00:08:12,959 --> 00:08:16,560 That's it. We're gonna move on Denver minus seven and 141 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:21,480 a half playing Vegas. This Las Vegas team is so bad. 142 00:08:22,079 --> 00:08:25,360 I can't even wrap my head around it. I look 143 00:08:25,399 --> 00:08:27,120 at this and I say, Okay, we got a total 144 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,439 of forty and a half. Las Vegas Raiders are not 145 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,320 putting up fourteen points in this game. Take Las Vegas 146 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:37,559 Raiders team total under. As for the side, Man, I 147 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,720 don't know. This Denver team keeps winning, but they don't 148 00:08:40,759 --> 00:08:44,559 win by margin. They're barely lucky. It'll win these damn games. 149 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:47,240 I guess I'd have to take the dog. I don't 150 00:08:47,279 --> 00:08:50,279 want to, Ah, screw that. We're just gonna take the 151 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:54,639 Las Vegas Raiders team total under Rams playing in Arizona 152 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:59,360 minus eight of the Rams against this Arizona team. Man, 153 00:08:59,399 --> 00:09:03,039 this is a guys. Obviously we all like the Rams. 154 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,360 Obviously we think they're a Super Bowl contending team. Clearly 155 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:10,000 Matt Stafford is the best player on the field. Clearly 156 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:13,200 they have a better defense than Arizona. Of course, they 157 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,840 have a better offense than Arizona. But minus eight in 158 00:09:16,879 --> 00:09:20,759 a division game on the road is simply too many points. 159 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:23,480 I'm gonna look to bet under the total of forty 160 00:09:23,519 --> 00:09:26,000 eight in this game. That's where I'm going. I don't 161 00:09:26,039 --> 00:09:29,159 think Arizona puts up a ton I know the Rams 162 00:09:29,759 --> 00:09:34,000 were shredded by Carolina. I'm giving them a mulligan. That 163 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:36,799 Rams d is a top three unit in all of football. 164 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:38,960 They're allowed to have a bad game. They did have 165 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:41,399 a bad game. They got that bad game out of 166 00:09:41,399 --> 00:09:44,639 the way. This Arizona team is horrible. Forty eight is 167 00:09:44,799 --> 00:09:48,480 way too high. If the Rams put up thirty, Arizona 168 00:09:48,519 --> 00:09:51,759 has to put up eighteen. We're gonna take the under. 169 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:55,000 Now we turn our attention to Cincinnati, led by Joe Burrow, 170 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:58,080 coming off of a win, feeling good about themselves, heading 171 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:01,799 into Buffalo, playing a Buffalo team that played their first 172 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:06,000 almost perfect game last Sunday. And why do I say 173 00:10:06,039 --> 00:10:10,039 almost They had too many turnovers. They still won that 174 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:13,080 game handly. Pittsburgh was not able to move the ball 175 00:10:13,159 --> 00:10:16,960 on that Buffalo team, and Buffalo drove the ball on 176 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:20,720 every single drive. This was the Buffalo team we were 177 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:24,120 expecting to see, and I think we see them again 178 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:28,639 this week. With that said, minus five and a half 179 00:10:28,879 --> 00:10:31,799 might be a little much. I do like Buffalo minus 180 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,000 minus five and a half, but I'm also looking at 181 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:39,200 the over fifty two fifty three. I know bad weather, 182 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:43,080 I get it, but man, this Cincinnati defense is gone. Well, 183 00:10:43,159 --> 00:10:45,799 I got to believe, Butflo's gonna get into the thirties, 184 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,039 and we know Joe Burrow can keep up. My Leen 185 00:10:49,159 --> 00:10:52,279 is on Buffalo, my Leen is on the over. Now 186 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:55,399 we turn our attention to Houston, who feels the same 187 00:10:55,519 --> 00:10:59,320 way as Jacksonville right now as they head into Kansas City, 188 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:02,919 do they feel the same way? Why are they plus 189 00:11:03,039 --> 00:11:05,720 three and a half? Guys? This is a Houston team 190 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:09,360 that all they're doing is winning games. Their defense is 191 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:13,000 the best defense in the league. This Kansas City team 192 00:11:13,039 --> 00:11:15,919 has been in must win mode for weeks now and 193 00:11:16,039 --> 00:11:19,799 they can't win. So we've already established that they aren't 194 00:11:19,799 --> 00:11:22,840 winning and must win mode. Why should we assume all 195 00:11:22,879 --> 00:11:25,480 of a sudden that this Kansas City team is gonna 196 00:11:25,519 --> 00:11:28,320 win this game and cover three and a half. Well, 197 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:31,639 we're not gonna assume that. I want to tell you first, 198 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:35,279 I like the under in this game forty two. Anytime 199 00:11:35,639 --> 00:11:38,039 Houston is playing, I'm looking to play the under. And 200 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:42,039 we know this Kansas City defense can shut teams down. 201 00:11:42,519 --> 00:11:45,320 I'm telling you now, I would not be surprised if 202 00:11:45,399 --> 00:11:49,840 this game is lower scoring than the Cleveland, Tennessee game, 203 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,320 which only is thirty three as their total. That's right, 204 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:58,960 I can see this game being like a seventeen thirteen, sixteen, 205 00:11:59,159 --> 00:12:03,279 fourteen times. I really like the under here and I 206 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:06,279 like Houston at plus three and a half. As far 207 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:10,919 as Philadelphia playing the Chargers, I'm taking the home dog. 208 00:12:11,399 --> 00:12:14,279 I know my producer Dan is upset about that. I 209 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:18,399 know he's a Philadelphia Eagles fan. I get it. I 210 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:22,960 was on Philadelphia and Thanksgiving. Something is wrong in Philly. 211 00:12:23,399 --> 00:12:27,080 They just can't seem to move the ball. Now, it's 212 00:12:27,399 --> 00:12:31,240 hard to blame it all on Jalen, but I'm blaming 213 00:12:31,279 --> 00:12:35,080 it all on Jalen anyway. He is not a quarterback. 214 00:12:35,399 --> 00:12:38,799 Now that's tough to say, given that he is a 215 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:43,480 Super Bowl winning quarterback. But just for the record, so 216 00:12:43,799 --> 00:12:50,240 is Trent Dilfer, So is Jeff Hostedler, so is Dougie Williams. 217 00:12:50,879 --> 00:12:56,279 There are many shitty Super Bowl quarterbacks, and Jalen Hurts 218 00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:00,080 happens to be another one of those. This guy I 219 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:03,879 can't over I mean, honestly, if you had a nine 220 00:13:04,039 --> 00:13:09,200 foot wide receiver standing on a ladder, he would figure 221 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,600 out a way to overthrow the guy. If you had 222 00:13:11,759 --> 00:13:17,559 a little person buried in a hole, he'd figure out 223 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:21,240 a way to underthrow that guy. Jalen Hurts is the 224 00:13:21,399 --> 00:13:25,000 reason Philadelphia is as bad as they are right now. 225 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:29,720 And this Chargers team, this is a good, good team. 226 00:13:30,159 --> 00:13:33,080 This team can run with anybody's throw, with anybody. They 227 00:13:33,159 --> 00:13:37,320 played defense, they got a great coach. I'm getting three 228 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:41,559 points at home. I'm taking them, take the Chargers. That's it, guys, 229 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:45,240 real quick. I forgot to ask, please hit the thumbs 230 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:48,759 up button like this show, it's really important to me. 231 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:51,399 Make sure to comment. I will read them all. I'll 232 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:54,279 respond to a bunch. And also make sure to grab 233 00:13:54,399 --> 00:13:56,759 my five percent play on Thursday night. You can use 234 00:13:56,840 --> 00:14:01,679 the promo code half price over talk to get fifty 235 00:14:01,759 --> 00:14:04,600 percent off of that play. Other than that, watch me 236 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,759 on the best betting show ever every day Monday, Tuesday, 237 00:14:07,759 --> 00:14:11,720 Wednesday or day Friday at wager Talk TV. Lots of love, guys, 238 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:15,960 thanks for tuning into the NFL presidential address. You're number twenty. 239 00:14:16,279 --> 00:14:18,279 We will see you all next week.