1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,919 Speaker 1: Week thirteen of the college football season is upon us. 2 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:06,799 We've got those top twenty five games ready to break 3 00:00:06,839 --> 00:00:10,919 down for you, those barking dogs to keep on cashing 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:13,839 the Deli keeps on winning. We're gonna give you that 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,399 early week Steam report with VR and of course best 6 00:00:17,399 --> 00:00:36,640 Bets up next on bet on It. Time flies when 7 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:39,159 you're cashing tickets, and that's what we've been doing here 8 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:42,759 all season long. On bet on It. I am Kelly Stewart, Yai, 9 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,880 the Greek right there in the middle, Marco DiAngelo in 10 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:48,880 the third seat, the King of the Delhi. I know 11 00:00:49,119 --> 00:00:52,640 because I read his standalone Deli video comments, and you 12 00:00:52,679 --> 00:00:56,079 guys are absolutely loving Marco for a change. It's about 13 00:00:56,159 --> 00:00:58,560 damn time you guys showed Marco some of the respect 14 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:02,240 he deserves. VR getting all the respect he deserves coming 15 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:05,840 up here shortly, but first I gotta break down this 16 00:01:06,239 --> 00:01:09,400 while former Big twelve game now SEC matchup twelve pm 17 00:01:09,439 --> 00:01:15,120 Eastern ABC. Number twenty three Missouri takes on number eleven Oklahoma, 18 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:17,120 who is a seven and a half point favorite. We've 19 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:21,280 seen some early Missouri money coming in total forty two 20 00:01:21,359 --> 00:01:24,439 and a half and that's probably because there's an anticipation 21 00:01:24,599 --> 00:01:27,319 that bo I'm gonna butcher his last name, so I'm 22 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:30,120 not gonna say it bo for Beulah for Beulah maybe 23 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,319 back that being said, Drew coach shrink Wwood said yesterday 24 00:01:33,359 --> 00:01:37,000 and his pressler he expects the lovely third stringers dollars 25 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:42,439 to start the game now Hollington's and purposes. Miszoo beat 26 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:44,519 Mississippi State last week, and that was a big win 27 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:48,159 because they snapped a two game losing streak. Oklahoma, though, 28 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,040 boy did that defense show up big time at Alabama. 29 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:56,000 They have now defeated four of five ranked opponents this year, 30 00:01:56,519 --> 00:01:59,079 and that's where I'm going in this one defense. The 31 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,480 Sooners defense ranks eighth in the nation, allowing just sixteen 32 00:02:02,519 --> 00:02:06,239 point one at yards per game, and like I said, 33 00:02:06,439 --> 00:02:10,240 not only limiting top offenses like Alabama last week, but 34 00:02:10,319 --> 00:02:13,599 also Tennessee. I like the under forty two and a 35 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:16,719 half year. I've not been impressed with this Miszoo offense 36 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:22,120 basically since getting past Auburn there and overtime losing at Vanderbilts. 37 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:25,599 This is only their third road game of the season. 38 00:02:25,879 --> 00:02:30,080 Give me that under forty two and a half. Marco, 39 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:33,800 You're up next. Three thirty pm Eastern CBS number seventeen, 40 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,879 USC at number eight Oregon. Oregon is a nine and 41 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:40,560 a half point favorite. This total seems a little low 42 00:02:40,599 --> 00:02:42,639 to me. Fifty nine and a half. I expected to 43 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:44,840 see them march this one out in the sixties. 44 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:47,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, Kelly. And when you look at this one the 45 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,680 knee jerk reaction, you've got two top twenty five teams 46 00:02:51,199 --> 00:02:53,360 going at it, and you've got a point spread of 47 00:02:53,439 --> 00:02:56,479 nine and a half. That seems a tad high with 48 00:02:56,599 --> 00:02:59,400 the first glance. But if you dig a little bit deeper, 49 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:02,759 I'm gonna look at this one in see the USC 50 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:04,240 when they've been on the road. 51 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 3: They've struggled. 52 00:03:05,319 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 2: Three of their four road games this year were not 53 00:03:08,439 --> 00:03:11,759 good for them. I don't trust the USC defense, as 54 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:15,120 they have given up thirty one to Michigan State, thirty 55 00:03:15,159 --> 00:03:18,479 four to Illinois, and thirty four to Notre Dame. Notre 56 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:21,879 Dame's the only real legitimate team with an offense of 57 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:24,360 those three that they gave up thirty plus, And to 58 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:26,840 be honest, in that Notre Dame game, that was one 59 00:03:26,879 --> 00:03:29,879 of the more misleading finals, they should have won by more. 60 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,439 In that game, Notre Dame ended up winning by ten. 61 00:03:33,159 --> 00:03:36,680 A lot of missed opportunities for Notre Dame Oregon. On 62 00:03:36,719 --> 00:03:39,400 the flip side, they've hit thirty points or more in 63 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:43,319 seven of their ten games in USC. What is it 64 00:03:43,319 --> 00:03:46,120 it's you know, Lincoln Riley, we know what it is. 65 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:48,719 It's the same thing we saw all those years in 66 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:52,159 Oklahoma in the Big Twelve. They're a finesse team. They're 67 00:03:52,199 --> 00:03:56,560 all offense, no defense, and when you look at this one, 68 00:03:56,759 --> 00:03:59,639 they're gonna get the football pounded down their throat. And 69 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:01,960 that's one of the reasons, Kelly, that you're probably seeing 70 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,319 the fifty nine and a half because Oregon can play 71 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,639 physical football. They like to run the football thirty five 72 00:04:08,759 --> 00:04:10,879 plus finmes. I know when you think of Oregon, you 73 00:04:10,919 --> 00:04:13,919 think of that high flying offense, but they run the 74 00:04:13,919 --> 00:04:18,120 football first and it sets up the passing game. Oregon 75 00:04:18,199 --> 00:04:20,800 is also you hear me refer to them all the time. 76 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:24,399 They're a two hundred club member. I love teams like this. 77 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,199 They rush for two thirty four, they throw for two 78 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,680 forty two. You can't get any more balanced than that, 79 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:34,959 and it makes it tough for defenses. And speaking of defenses, 80 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:38,000 take a look at the Oregon defense. They're allowing just 81 00:04:38,079 --> 00:04:41,959 fourteen points per game. I think USC Yeah, they look 82 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,879 attractive as an underdog, but I'm not buying it. I'm 83 00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:47,639 going with Oregon here, thirty four to twenty. I'm gonna 84 00:04:47,639 --> 00:04:49,160 go ahead and lay the nine and a half. 85 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 1: Now, before you guys complain about this game saying it's 86 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,639 not a primetime game, Marco did the schedule this week. 87 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,040 So if you don't like that we're talking about this game, 88 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:02,040 this is your fault. Marco PM Eastern ESPN number twenty two, 89 00:05:02,079 --> 00:05:05,360 pit At number sixteen. Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is a 90 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,040 two and a half point favorite. Total sixty two here 91 00:05:08,079 --> 00:05:11,199 and a half. VR you you nailed it last week 92 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,199 you said pitt is just not a top twenty five team. 93 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,000 Yet they're still in the top twenty five and this 94 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:17,279 is a really short number here. 95 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,839 Speaker 4: Yeah, and here's the beauty Georgia Tech's phon here. That's 96 00:05:20,879 --> 00:05:25,680 what's that's the greatness of this game. This is so easy, listen. 97 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:27,279 I'm just gonna keep it simple. I don't want to 98 00:05:27,319 --> 00:05:31,079 waste the viewer's time. Right now, coming into this week 99 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:33,040 on bed on It, I'm twenty eight and eight on 100 00:05:33,079 --> 00:05:33,399 the show. 101 00:05:33,439 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 3: In college football, that's seventy eight percent. We're almost eighty percent. 102 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 4: So obviously using them my power ratings with my market 103 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:43,279 read has produced profit. More importantly, I was up about 104 00:05:43,319 --> 00:05:46,560 eighty units the first of October, up over one hundred 105 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,759 units now in Nove. One hundred and thirty units forgive 106 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:52,759 me in college football now in November. So the power 107 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:56,199 ratings get stronger and stronger as the year progresses. That's 108 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:58,240 been proven, and the same thing is going to be 109 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,639 in college basketball. Butt him back to this game real quickly. 110 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,160 It gets right back to my power ratings. It's a mistake. 111 00:06:05,199 --> 00:06:08,199 Pittsburgh's the higher power rated team. That's the bottom line. 112 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:10,560 The better team is Pittsburgh. I have them in my 113 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:15,600 top forty. Georgia Tech just cracked my top fifty in 114 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:18,560 power rating right now, believe it or not. They've had 115 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:23,399 the seventieth toughest strength of schedule compared to Pittsburgh's fifty 116 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,160 eighth toughest strength of schedule. So Pittsburgh had the tougher 117 00:06:26,199 --> 00:06:29,199 strength of schedule, and with the tougher strength of schedule, 118 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:32,720 they've had the twenty fourth most efficient offense compared to 119 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:36,079 the thirtieth most efficient offense. For Georgia Tech with the 120 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:40,680 easier schedule. So offensively, my numbers tell me that power 121 00:06:40,759 --> 00:06:45,600 rating wise, overall, Pittsburgh's the better team. Offensively, Pittsburgh's the 122 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,879 better team. Now let's look at the defense again. Georgia 123 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:51,120 Tech had the weaker. 124 00:06:50,759 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 3: Strength of schedule. They have the sixtieth most efficient defense. 125 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 4: Pittsburgh tougher strength of schedule, had the fifty fifth most 126 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:03,399 efficient defense two week defenses, and yet Pittsburgh's still better. 127 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:08,480 So offense defense, overall, Pittsburgh's the better team. 128 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:11,519 Speaker 3: So what does Georgia Tech have? They have home field advantage. 129 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 4: What's Georgia Tech's home field advantage, Well, over the last 130 00:07:14,079 --> 00:07:17,879 three to five years. It's worth two point one points exactly. 131 00:07:18,639 --> 00:07:21,360 So I have Pittsburgh the better team, wipe out the 132 00:07:21,399 --> 00:07:23,839 home field advantage, and this game should be a pick them. 133 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:24,639 Speaker 3: At worst. 134 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 4: You're giving me plus money on the money line. It's 135 00:07:28,519 --> 00:07:31,639 an obvious bet you got to take. The only reason 136 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:34,519 I gave this out to subscribers that plus three was 137 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:36,560 because we were able to get it at a discount 138 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:39,920 earlier in the week. Otherwise this would be a money 139 00:07:39,959 --> 00:07:43,360 line play points not needed. Points are for Pussy's in 140 00:07:43,399 --> 00:07:46,079 this game. Because we got the better team again. The 141 00:07:46,199 --> 00:07:49,319 only advantage Georgia Tech has is that they're playing at home, 142 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:53,040 and that's worth about two point one points. That's it 143 00:07:53,519 --> 00:07:57,199 everywhere else. Pittsburgh's the better team, and they're coming off 144 00:07:57,759 --> 00:08:02,519 playing Notre Dame, which it was probably like now slow 145 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,800 motion going up against Georgia Tech. Compared to playing Notre Dame. 146 00:08:05,839 --> 00:08:07,959 Now you're playing a team in slow motion, it'll be 147 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:09,560 a lot easier week for Pittsburgh. 148 00:08:09,839 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 3: Gimme Pittsburgh plus the points. You won't need it money 149 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:13,720 line all day. 150 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,839 Speaker 1: I just audibly laughed out loud. Good thing I was 151 00:08:17,959 --> 00:08:21,879 muted comments section. We appreciate you guys every single week 152 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:25,079 here on bet on It. You always keep me laughing 153 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:26,759 as well. So if you guys have something to say, 154 00:08:26,839 --> 00:08:29,920 good bad, in different drop it below. We're gonna run 155 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:33,279 it right back with VR. Here kind of an early 156 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:35,480 preview if you guys are new here on bet on 157 00:08:35,519 --> 00:08:39,279 It of the steam room that he does on Sundays, 158 00:08:39,799 --> 00:08:41,559 and it kind of gives you an idea of what 159 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:43,960 the wise guys are betting early, what the books may 160 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,720 need early, and if you'd like to join that steam 161 00:08:46,759 --> 00:08:49,200 room this Sunday, if you are a wager Talk insider. 162 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:50,799 You get to join it for free. To become a 163 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:55,200 Wager Talking insider, WT Dot Buzz Backslash Insiders, just two 164 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,440 dollars and ninety nine cents a month is going to 165 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,279 get you early access to things like the Steamroom. It 166 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:03,000 comes out early, You get early access to Marco's Deli. 167 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,679 Lots more perks coming down the pipeline. I just got 168 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:10,279 to figure out some different structures. Listen, I've been working 169 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:12,039 hard for you guys this football season. Just give me, 170 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,120 give me a couple of days are I'm gonna let 171 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:18,840 you do what you do best. Steam Report College Football 172 00:09:18,879 --> 00:09:19,480 Week thirteen. 173 00:09:19,919 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, the steam Room's awesome during football. 174 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 4: We just do it on Sunday, the hour plus leading 175 00:09:25,279 --> 00:09:28,440 into the early kickoffs, and we go through every NFL game, 176 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:32,559 at least all the early games, sign total player props. 177 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:35,159 That's the extra stuff that get Being in the Steamroom 178 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:37,759 gets you. Because there's so time sensitive, I can't even 179 00:09:37,799 --> 00:09:41,159 release the subscribers those player props. We also get the 180 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,879 plus eb teasers those last fifteen minutes, again a lot 181 00:09:44,879 --> 00:09:47,679 of time. There's a handful of them. I can't narrow 182 00:09:47,759 --> 00:09:51,399 them down for subscribers, but for guys in the steam room. 183 00:09:51,399 --> 00:09:54,000 They're able to pick the ones that they like most, 184 00:09:54,399 --> 00:09:56,120 been able to make a lot of money off of those. 185 00:09:56,639 --> 00:09:59,320 And finally, I'm there to answer all your questions on 186 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:02,799 any game, any money management topic, anything like that. Again, 187 00:10:02,879 --> 00:10:05,600 I work for you. And after football, it'll be on 188 00:10:05,639 --> 00:10:08,000 Saturdays with college basketball. That'll be a lot of fun 189 00:10:08,039 --> 00:10:10,440 because we'll be doing a lot of live betting as 190 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,879 stuff comes in. Now, I narrowed down, like usual, ten 191 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:19,200 of the most legit steam moves where I'm not seeing resistance, 192 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:23,039 where I'm seeing multiple groups on the same side, and 193 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:25,080 where I still think there's a little bit of ev 194 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,399 because we're not seeing that resistance come back yet if 195 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:32,120 you agree with it again, totals come out Thursdays. I've 196 00:10:32,159 --> 00:10:34,840 said that every single week. You could pick those off 197 00:10:34,879 --> 00:10:38,000 easily by watching your odds logic screen tomorrow, all right, 198 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:42,240 start off all on Saturday one nineteen Rutgers plus thirty 199 00:10:42,279 --> 00:10:46,039 three and thirty two. They're fading Ohio State, which was 200 00:10:46,399 --> 00:10:48,799 my best bet last week. Again, number one team in 201 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:51,440 the country did what they're supposed to do. They've outperformed 202 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:55,600 the betting market, covering every single week except once wise, 203 00:10:55,639 --> 00:10:58,600 Guys think it'll be twice. They took Rutgers Old Dominion 204 00:10:58,639 --> 00:11:00,919 game one thirty one minus ten, minus ten and a half, 205 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,960 minus eleven against Georgia Southern one forty three Michigan laying 206 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:08,360 double digits there, twelve, thirteen, thirteen and a half against 207 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:12,240 Maryland Toledo one forty eight, twenty six and twenty seven 208 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:16,159 against ball State. Again, those number if you like that side, 209 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:18,679 those shouldn't scare you. Like once you get over that 210 00:11:18,759 --> 00:11:22,039 minus twenty range, there's a lot of variants. The difference 211 00:11:22,039 --> 00:11:24,240 between a minus twenty two and a minus twenty three 212 00:11:24,399 --> 00:11:26,720 is negligible. The difference between the minus two and a 213 00:11:26,759 --> 00:11:32,200 minus three two different completely bets. One fifty five Missouri 214 00:11:32,399 --> 00:11:34,480 plus nine and a half plus nine plus eight and 215 00:11:34,519 --> 00:11:37,519 a half and then plus eight against Oklahoma, one seventy 216 00:11:37,519 --> 00:11:39,240 three Arkansas against Texas. 217 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:40,039 Speaker 3: They took the ten. 218 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 4: They took the nine and a half's out as well, 219 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:44,840 Louisville playing SMU good game there if they took the 220 00:11:44,879 --> 00:11:45,639 three and a half. 221 00:11:45,759 --> 00:11:47,399 Speaker 3: More importantly, they took the three. 222 00:11:47,799 --> 00:11:49,799 Speaker 4: Took that key number, So it wasn't just one of 223 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:52,440 those games where there's three and a half's out there, 224 00:11:53,159 --> 00:11:56,159 key number three. Let's pick those off. No, they hit 225 00:11:56,159 --> 00:11:59,559 the three as well. Wisconsin Illinois they took the nine 226 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:01,039 and a half, took the eight and a half. We'll 227 00:12:01,039 --> 00:12:04,399 talk about that game later. Two ten LSU laying the 228 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,879 points against Western Kentucky. A meaningless game, but we're at 229 00:12:07,919 --> 00:12:10,559 that part of the year where style points actually matter. 230 00:12:10,799 --> 00:12:13,360 Three factors that you can't quantify in college football that 231 00:12:13,519 --> 00:12:20,039 matter right now. That's bowls and playoff implications, Senior Day actually. 232 00:12:19,639 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 3: Matters, and style points move up in the rankings. 233 00:12:23,399 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 4: Those things are difficult to quantify, but they matter once 234 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:29,679 you get into October November, forgive me. And finally, last 235 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:33,000 game two nineteen New Mexico minus two, minus two and 236 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,799 a half, more importantly minus three as well. They laid 237 00:12:35,799 --> 00:12:39,440 the three there against air Force. That's the steam Room 238 00:12:39,639 --> 00:12:42,120 read for this week's bet on It. Jump in the 239 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,279 steam room on Sunday, and I'll be on Last Call 240 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:47,000 Saturday going over college football and college basketball as well. 241 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 1: Yes, you guys can catch VR with me both days 242 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:52,000 this week, and I'm gonna be covering for Aeriel on 243 00:12:52,159 --> 00:12:56,600 NFL Sunday as well. All right, Marco, I'm gonna let 244 00:12:56,639 --> 00:12:59,039 you go first here on the Barking dog segment. You 245 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:03,440 have been absolute crushing this spot, and you took a 246 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,559 dog this week that I had on my radar. But 247 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:09,639 you're gonna have to convince me to trust them. I'm 248 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:11,720 not gonna lie. I had them on my long lesson. 249 00:13:11,759 --> 00:13:14,559 I thought I can't trust Colorado Marco. 250 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:18,759 Speaker 2: Well, Kelly, I'll just give you a preview to the 251 00:13:18,879 --> 00:13:22,200 NFL show. You're gonna have to trust the process several 252 00:13:22,279 --> 00:13:25,600 times this week. Okay, with some of these games, and 253 00:13:25,639 --> 00:13:29,679 we're gonna start with Colorado. And yes, Colorado looks ugly 254 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,200 as hell, they've lost four of their last five games. 255 00:13:32,399 --> 00:13:35,279 But I'm really looking at the scheduling spot here. Arizona 256 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:37,759 State is coming off of SCARE last week, the only 257 00:13:37,799 --> 00:13:39,960 won by two points as a ten and a half 258 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:43,360 point favorite. And normally you hear me say I love 259 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:46,919 taking good teams coming off of SCARE because you get 260 00:13:46,919 --> 00:13:49,799 a focused aft for the next week, and that would 261 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,919 normally be what I'm here. But is VR just said 262 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:56,039 in his last segment, there's other things you got to 263 00:13:56,039 --> 00:13:58,799 look at when you get to the final two weeks. 264 00:13:58,480 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 3: Of the season. 265 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 2: Some of those things are teams out of the playoffs, 266 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:06,519 do they have something to play for last home game 267 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:10,240 and rivalry games, and all those rivalry games come up 268 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:14,960 next week Thanksgiving weekend. Well, Arizona State has that big 269 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:18,559 rivalry game. They play Arizona next week, and I think 270 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,320 they're gonna look right past this Colorado team that as 271 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:25,759 ugly as can be. But this is Colorado's last home game, 272 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:28,480 so I look for them, and they are not going 273 00:14:28,519 --> 00:14:32,480 to a bowl game. Okay, they're already have their seven losses, 274 00:14:32,519 --> 00:14:35,279 so they can't go to a bowl. This is their 275 00:14:35,279 --> 00:14:37,679 bowl game in essence, and I will take a home 276 00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:41,480 team in that spot, whether it be a rivalry game 277 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:43,600 or the last home game, I will look to them. 278 00:14:43,679 --> 00:14:46,960 And that is the case here. And with everything that 279 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:49,639 I just said and nothing to lose, what's that mean 280 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,399 for coach Sanders, Well, he can take all the chances 281 00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:57,360 he wants. Sometimes you take chances at backfires. But if 282 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,600 I got a dog and they're taking chances knowing that 283 00:14:59,639 --> 00:15:01,840 they're going to give me everything they got, I'll go 284 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,639 ahead and ride dad Dog. This is more of the spot, Kelly, 285 00:15:06,039 --> 00:15:09,559 than the team, But everything that I look at adds 286 00:15:09,639 --> 00:15:12,759 up to I've got to take Colorado with the inflated 287 00:15:13,039 --> 00:15:15,440 number at home. I think just goes right down to 288 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,480 the wire, and let's call it Colorado twenty seven to 289 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:19,279 twenty four. 290 00:15:19,919 --> 00:15:21,919 Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna make VR wait a minute, because 291 00:15:21,919 --> 00:15:23,799 he took my barking dog for this weekend. I'm gonna 292 00:15:23,799 --> 00:15:27,279 give you, guys an even grosser barking dog, just an 293 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,840 absolute ugly like Kelly, Why would you do this? And 294 00:15:30,879 --> 00:15:33,679 that's because I've had these double digit dogs all season 295 00:15:33,679 --> 00:15:36,600 that I've left off my list, and now I gotta 296 00:15:36,639 --> 00:15:42,000 take this one. Oklahoma State over two touchdowns at Central Florida, 297 00:15:42,279 --> 00:15:44,559 a team who has lost six of their last seven games, 298 00:15:44,919 --> 00:15:48,240 and now you want to lay double digits with them. 299 00:15:48,759 --> 00:15:50,799 I don't understand it. Over the last three games, the 300 00:15:50,879 --> 00:15:53,200 Knights have been outscored by an average of twenty three 301 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:56,159 points per game. I get it. You guys are gonna say, oh, 302 00:15:56,159 --> 00:15:59,360 but Oklahoma's only scored scoring an average of fourteen point 303 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,960 four points game here in conference play. But that would 304 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:07,279 mean that UCF would have to essentially put up thirty 305 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:10,639 points here, thirty four to fourteen to cover this number 306 00:16:10,679 --> 00:16:12,879 with the hook, the two touchdowns and a hook here. 307 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:15,879 I get it. Oklahoma State is not a fun team. 308 00:16:15,919 --> 00:16:19,399 They fired their coach early but they've showed some fight 309 00:16:19,639 --> 00:16:23,039 and this team has not quit. They wanted to beat 310 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,679 up on Kansas. They didn't get the win, but they 311 00:16:25,759 --> 00:16:28,759 tried and against last week versus my Kansas State Wildcats, 312 00:16:29,039 --> 00:16:31,799 I think UCF is reeling. I think the Cowboys smells 313 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,679 some blood in the water, and as Marco said, this 314 00:16:34,879 --> 00:16:37,679 is an opportunity to get that kind of monkey off 315 00:16:37,679 --> 00:16:41,879 your back and beat a conference opponent. Zane Flores forty 316 00:16:41,879 --> 00:16:45,799 six of sixty four in the last two weeks seventy 317 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:48,360 one point nine percent. I think that the Cowboys are 318 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:50,879 live here. I would not be shocked in the slightest 319 00:16:51,159 --> 00:16:53,919 to see Oklahoma State knocking on the door late in 320 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:57,919 the fourth quarter. Give me the two touchdowns and the hook, 321 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:00,240 and of course give me just a little bit on 322 00:17:00,519 --> 00:17:03,519 that money line. V are go ahead and tell everybody 323 00:17:03,519 --> 00:17:05,240 why you like Baylor this. 324 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 4: Week, I do think And disclaimer, I haven't gotten to 325 00:17:09,039 --> 00:17:11,359 the window with it yet. I haven't released it to 326 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:15,200 subscribers yet, but I only have two dogs that I. 327 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:16,079 Speaker 3: Was leaning this week. 328 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,160 Speaker 4: One I released which I'll use as my best bet. 329 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,599 So I was stuck with this one, and it's Bailor. 330 00:17:21,759 --> 00:17:23,759 And here's why I haven't gotten to the window yet 331 00:17:24,279 --> 00:17:26,400 because I'm not seeing six and a half at my 332 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:29,720 sharpest book. I have a different book that I use 333 00:17:29,839 --> 00:17:33,599 the shade for different markets that I believe books the 334 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:36,720 sharpest stuff. And when it comes to college football, the 335 00:17:36,799 --> 00:17:39,759 one book that I'm looking at, they have them at seven. 336 00:17:40,279 --> 00:17:40,799 Speaker 3: Juice. 337 00:17:40,839 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 4: On the Arizona side, I don't like it. I wanted 338 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:45,200 to see him at six and a half. If that 339 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,160 was six and a half, this would be a four 340 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,599 percent play, believe me. And you're saying, wait, you're getting 341 00:17:49,599 --> 00:17:52,359 more points now at seven, why wouldn't it now be 342 00:17:53,039 --> 00:17:56,839 a move? It's because of how I'm reading the market. Listen, 343 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,519 the bottom line is this Arizona. The only difference between 344 00:17:59,559 --> 00:18:02,039 these two teams. The big difference is the record, the result. 345 00:18:02,799 --> 00:18:06,319 But when you look at them on paper, the predictable data, 346 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,880 they're not all that far apart. In fact, power rating wise, 347 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:14,279 I only have them sixty seven slots different. I have 348 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:18,079 Arizona as the fortieth power rated team and I have 349 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:21,119 Baylor as the forty sixth, then about forty seventh, tied 350 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,119 right around there, forty six, forty seventh, so they're very 351 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:29,319 comparable in power rating and the difference in records come 352 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,319 down to the schedule. Arizona's had a very easy strength 353 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:36,880 of schedule. In fact, it's the fiftieth toughest in college 354 00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:40,160 football compared the Bailor, which has a top twenty five 355 00:18:40,519 --> 00:18:41,519 strength of schedule. 356 00:18:41,599 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 3: That's the difference in the records. 357 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 4: But when you look offensively, way superior offense on the 358 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:51,279 Baylor's side, fifteenth, they're a top fifteen offense with that 359 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,759 strength of schedule compared to a barely top forty, they're 360 00:18:54,839 --> 00:19:00,720 thirty ninth Arizona Offensively, defense, that's where Baylor had the problems. 361 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:04,359 They're not they're barely in the top eighty, but still 362 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,440 Arizona is only in the top forty. So again they 363 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:10,319 may be two x better defensively, but they've had a 364 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:14,640 lot easier strength of schedule as well. So Arizona is 365 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:16,680 now going to go I mean, Baylor's going up against 366 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:18,279 a much easier offense. 367 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 3: Their weakness has. 368 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 4: Been defense and they're going up against a very weak offense. 369 00:19:22,519 --> 00:19:26,079 So that's credit to Baylor. Strength of schedule to Baylor, 370 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,839 offensive side of the ball, advantage to Baylor, and they're 371 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:29,960 catching all these points. 372 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 3: And when you look at Arizona, even. 373 00:19:33,839 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 4: Home field advantage nothing, it's worth what not less than 374 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,119 two point one, so they have less of a home 375 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:41,079 field advantage. 376 00:19:40,759 --> 00:19:43,200 Speaker 3: And Georgia Tech had over the last couple of seasons. 377 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 4: So yeah, I like Baylor plus the seven points, and 378 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,039 it comes down the strength of schedule. 379 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 3: That's the difference in the record. And I'm going to 380 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:50,440 share something real quickly. 381 00:19:51,319 --> 00:19:55,319 Speaker 4: College basketball a perfect example because we solve this. This 382 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,079 reminds me of the Arkansas bet that Marco had last 383 00:19:58,079 --> 00:20:00,920 week where against LSU, where it was just. 384 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,440 Speaker 3: The record, but when you looked on paper. 385 00:20:03,559 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 4: And that the actual stats that matter, they were a 386 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:10,200 lot closer than the records indicate. And something that stuck 387 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:11,559 out to me today when I was looking at college 388 00:20:11,559 --> 00:20:13,720 basketball and I'm sorry, I know it's a college football show, 389 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,480 but they have Alabama not even in it ranked I 390 00:20:16,519 --> 00:20:18,920 don't think and I can tell you guys right now 391 00:20:19,079 --> 00:20:23,359 my power ratings in college basketball number one Duke Auburn 392 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:27,200 is about uh what do I have? Auburn one point 393 00:20:27,319 --> 00:20:29,640 worse than Duke one and a half point worse than Duke. 394 00:20:29,839 --> 00:20:33,400 Behind Auburn is Houston, Who's a half point worse behind 395 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:37,079 Houston is Alabama and Gonzaga. So Alabama's a top five 396 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,920 power rated team, but because they've lost the game already, 397 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:42,200 you don't even see them in the rankings. I don't 398 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:46,799 think same thing happens in college football. So it's Baylor 399 00:20:46,839 --> 00:20:48,680 teams a lot better than their five and five record, 400 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:49,759 and let's not forget. 401 00:20:49,599 --> 00:20:52,599 Speaker 3: They want to be bowl eligible. Big game. Take the 402 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:53,720 points plus seven. 403 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 4: Hopefully I see some six and a half's with the 404 00:20:56,519 --> 00:20:58,519 Sharper books, and it gives me more confidence and we 405 00:20:58,519 --> 00:21:01,240 could get the window. But Baylor sprinkle money line my 406 00:21:01,319 --> 00:21:02,000 dog good week. 407 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:06,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's really close to probably making my three team moneyline. Partly, 408 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:08,400 I like a lot of double digit dogs this week, 409 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,440 and Marco, some of them match up with your sandwich spots, 410 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,720 or at least we'll call them partial sandwich spots, maybe 411 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,079 some look ahead spots. And that's what you do on 412 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:22,200 the delis. You show everybody where these different situational spots 413 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:25,319 come into play, whether it's a sandwich spot, whether it's 414 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:29,200 a trap game, whether it's a look ahead. Eight winning weeks. 415 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,640 That is pretty impressive this season, last week three and two, 416 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:36,119 now thirty five and eighteen on the season. Tell me 417 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,960 who you like this week in that good old Deli spot. 418 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, Kelly, I'm going to be involved in a 419 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:45,799 game against the team that you've made some money with 420 00:21:45,839 --> 00:21:48,599 this year, but they're not in their money making role. 421 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,960 And we're taking a look at Minnesota and Northwestern and 422 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,839 the team I'm talking about that Kelly has made money 423 00:21:54,839 --> 00:21:57,599 with is that Northwestern team, but they're not good as 424 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:02,000 a favorite. And this is an absolute love this situation. 425 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,960 In this one, Northwestern is coming off a gut wrenching 426 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,680 loss to Michigan last week, and ironically, they're playing at 427 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,559 the same field. Remember they played at Soldier Field last week. 428 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,720 They're playing there again this week. And you lose to 429 00:22:14,759 --> 00:22:18,440 Michigan when you've got the lead late and Michigan ends 430 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,359 up hitting a game winning field goal with two seconds. 431 00:22:21,519 --> 00:22:23,440 You know what I'm gonna say next. This is the 432 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:29,440 poster child for lose the same game twice. Now you 433 00:22:29,519 --> 00:22:32,200 look at what's going on. Because they played so well 434 00:22:32,279 --> 00:22:36,680 last week against Michigan, you're getting an inflated line with Northwestern. 435 00:22:37,279 --> 00:22:42,039 And although Northwestern looked good, Minnesota was getting their doors 436 00:22:42,079 --> 00:22:45,440 blown off by Oregon. So now you've got recency bias 437 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,640 lining up here with the public. And then you also 438 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:54,640 have Northwestern sitting at that magical five wins. What's that mean? 439 00:22:54,759 --> 00:23:00,119 They need another win desperately. The public knows that. If 440 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,279 the bookmakers know that, the public knows that, and they're 441 00:23:03,319 --> 00:23:06,279 gonna make you pay a price for taking that team 442 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:10,480 that needs that fifth win, We're not doing it. I 443 00:23:10,519 --> 00:23:13,799 am not buying it. Minnesota can play loose in this game. 444 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:18,160 Why they're already Bowl eligible and they get to play 445 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,759 here in Soldier Field. And then the final thing that 446 00:23:21,799 --> 00:23:24,319 puts the cherry on the top of the Sunday here, 447 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:29,039 it's a sandwich game. They played Michigan last week. Northwestern 448 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:33,720 they play Illinois next week. They're in state rival. I'm 449 00:23:33,759 --> 00:23:37,640 taking Minnesota playing plus the points, and I don't think 450 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,759 you're gonna need them. I have Minnesota winning this one outright, 451 00:23:40,799 --> 00:23:43,920 twenty four to twenty. So let's go to the deli 452 00:23:44,079 --> 00:23:46,359 and let's eat good this week, Kelly, all. 453 00:23:46,319 --> 00:23:49,519 Speaker 1: Right, guys, you'll be able to see marcos extended version 454 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,960 of the Deli here on the wager Talk YouTube channel. 455 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,240 For those insiders, you guys are gonna get it early. 456 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:56,559 For the rest of you, guys are gonna get it 457 00:23:56,599 --> 00:24:01,039 on Friday. Let's get right into these bats. I'm gonna 458 00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:04,599 let VR go first. As he alluded to earlier, he 459 00:24:04,839 --> 00:24:07,480 likes a dog that is possibly barking. 460 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:11,359 Speaker 4: Here indeed, and I'm gonna take Wisconsin. I talked about 461 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,920 them on my Steam report. I sent them out to 462 00:24:14,039 --> 00:24:16,960 subscribers at plus eight and a half as a four 463 00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,480 percent play, and I would not be surprised if this 464 00:24:19,559 --> 00:24:23,720 gets down to a touchdown before kickoff because multiple groups 465 00:24:23,759 --> 00:24:24,440 like Wisconsin. 466 00:24:24,519 --> 00:24:27,559 Speaker 3: It makes sense. First, the splits. Let's talk about the 467 00:24:27,599 --> 00:24:28,799 splits for both these teams. 468 00:24:28,839 --> 00:24:31,279 Speaker 4: You have Illinois who's five and one at home, and 469 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,680 they're barely five hundred and two and two on the road. 470 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,359 Flip side of that, Wisconsin haven't won a single road game, 471 00:24:37,599 --> 00:24:41,160 but they're three and three at home, so all their. 472 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:42,079 Speaker 3: Wins have come at home. 473 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,920 Speaker 4: That's a strong home field advantage when you haven't won 474 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:46,640 a single game on the road. 475 00:24:46,799 --> 00:24:49,200 Speaker 3: So we like that for Wisconsin. Then I look at 476 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,640 the power ratings. 477 00:24:52,039 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 4: Believe it or not, Wisconsin at three and seven is 478 00:24:55,279 --> 00:24:59,759 a top fifty team power rating wise, they're still top 479 00:24:59,759 --> 00:25:04,599 fIF the team. Illinois just cracked my top thirty. All right, Illinois, 480 00:25:04,599 --> 00:25:07,599 with that win over Maryland, they now have back to 481 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,079 back wins. They were big favors to get it done obviously, 482 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,559 thirteen and sixteen points, but they got the Ws outperform 483 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,880 the betting market. I moved them up a little bit, 484 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,400 but they just cracked my top thirty. And here's why, 485 00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:21,920 strength of schedule. It's not even close. Wisconsin's had the 486 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,559 toughest strength of schedule this entire season, and yet they 487 00:25:25,559 --> 00:25:29,559 had the fifteenth most efficient defense in all of college 488 00:25:29,559 --> 00:25:32,880 football and they're catching points at home. I like that 489 00:25:33,279 --> 00:25:37,079 against an Illinois team where that's been their strength offense, 490 00:25:37,319 --> 00:25:41,720 because defensively they're not all that good, barely top forty. 491 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:46,039 And Wisconsin's weakness is their offense. So now you have 492 00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:50,240 a Wisconsin offense who's had problems going up against a 493 00:25:50,279 --> 00:25:51,880 weaker defense than they faced. 494 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:53,640 Speaker 3: Remember number one, strength of schedule. 495 00:25:53,839 --> 00:25:55,759 Speaker 4: Now it's going to get a little easier for that 496 00:25:55,839 --> 00:25:58,559 offense defensive side of the ball, where they've been top 497 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:02,279 fifteen all season, they're playing an easier offense they have 498 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,640 to deal with than they've had lately. So all this 499 00:26:05,839 --> 00:26:09,519 points do we should see Wisconsin play a lot better 500 00:26:09,799 --> 00:26:12,319 than the record indicates. And let's not forget they come 501 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:16,240 in having covered three straight, so they've outperformed the betting market. 502 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:16,559 Speaker 3: Elate. 503 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,279 Speaker 4: I don't think they're a team that we expect to 504 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:23,160 regress ATS wise, because they already regressed. 505 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,119 Speaker 3: They're two seven and one, are there. I mean, they're 506 00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:25,480 five and. 507 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:29,559 Speaker 4: Five over the last ten games ATS, So what's there 508 00:26:29,559 --> 00:26:33,720 to do? I like Wisconsin here, take the points already released. 509 00:26:33,839 --> 00:26:35,519 I don't think you're going to get a better number, 510 00:26:35,559 --> 00:26:36,920 so I wouldn't wait on it too long. 511 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,640 Speaker 1: All right, Marco, your best bet kept me off of 512 00:26:41,759 --> 00:26:43,960 a game that I was looking at. You know, we 513 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,480 have this handy dandy little sheet that I put together 514 00:26:46,519 --> 00:26:48,880 every single week, and I had this team on my 515 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:50,799 long list, and I said, oh boy, I'm not going 516 00:26:50,839 --> 00:26:52,880 to head to head with Marco. Can't do it. It 517 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:56,160 has been bad for me all season long. Marco, you 518 00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,799 like the Penn State Nitney lyons over ask of this week? 519 00:27:00,839 --> 00:27:02,440 Tell me why? Yeah? 520 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:04,480 Speaker 2: Before I tell you, well, Kelly, I gotta tell you 521 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,279 what's happening at wager Talk this week. We've got a 522 00:27:07,279 --> 00:27:11,960 special site wide at wager Talk rest of the football season. 523 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:16,200 This is available to any of our capers. You can 524 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:20,079 get all college, all pro football through the Super Bowl. 525 00:27:20,599 --> 00:27:24,240 Just three hundred and seventy nine dollars, and that includes 526 00:27:24,279 --> 00:27:26,960 all the five percent plays. You know, those five percent 527 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:30,559 plays sell for thirty five dollars each, Guys, my five 528 00:27:30,599 --> 00:27:33,200 percent plays. We hit it again last week. We had 529 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,480 to sweat a little bit, but Sam Darnold made us 530 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,279 sweat with those four interceptions, but they still got the money. 531 00:27:39,319 --> 00:27:42,079 That's all the counts with the Seattle Seahawks, and that 532 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,599 brings the record to thirty seven and sixteen on those 533 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,440 five percent plays, and all of our plays have been 534 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,839 on a roll. Guys, last twenty days, we have gone 535 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:56,000 thirty two and fourteen. That's sixty nine point six percent 536 00:27:56,079 --> 00:27:59,079 for basically a three week stretch and a profit of 537 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:02,599 forty six hundred and sixty eight dollars. Grab that rest 538 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:06,240 the season special and for this game, Kelly, Penn State 539 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,720 and Nebraska. These are two teams I know pretty well, obviously, 540 00:28:09,799 --> 00:28:13,160 Penn State being one of those Pennsylvania teams. You know, 541 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:17,000 I follow all of those, but I also follow Nebraska 542 00:28:17,039 --> 00:28:19,640 a lot, Kelly, and the reason for that is I 543 00:28:19,799 --> 00:28:22,880 do a Nebraska radio show every week, so I've got 544 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:26,519 to break them down for them each week. And I've 545 00:28:26,559 --> 00:28:29,599 been very good going with it against Nebraska and this 546 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:33,720 is a bad spot for them. Let's start with Penn State. 547 00:28:33,839 --> 00:28:36,599 First of all, this is a team that showed a 548 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,960 lot of character last week. With the season they had, 549 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:44,359 and after having Indiana on the ropes to win that game, 550 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,960 and they came back and played well last week. You 551 00:28:48,039 --> 00:28:51,640 talk about lose the same game twice. The season they had, 552 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:53,960 it would have been easy for Penn State to mail 553 00:28:54,039 --> 00:28:58,079 it in and they did. And why the team absolutely 554 00:28:58,119 --> 00:29:01,759 loves the interim coach. They're playing for him. He's a 555 00:29:01,799 --> 00:29:04,559 guy that he wears his emotions on his sleeves. He 556 00:29:04,599 --> 00:29:08,079 actually did a press conference yesterday where he actually broke 557 00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:12,240 down and started crying in the press conference. I don't 558 00:29:12,279 --> 00:29:14,039 know if that's something you like or don't like with 559 00:29:14,119 --> 00:29:17,599 a coach, but it shows what this school and team 560 00:29:17,759 --> 00:29:19,880 means to him, and they're playing hard for him. And 561 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,720 this is the last home game. We talked about that 562 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,599 senior day for a lot of kids and the pride 563 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,359 they want to give everybody at Penn State a home win. 564 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,839 Finished the home season on a good note. And then 565 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:36,240 let's look at Nebraska. They are in a horrible spot. 566 00:29:36,279 --> 00:29:38,279 They had last week off, they had a bye week 567 00:29:38,279 --> 00:29:40,920 and That was good for them because they were coming 568 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,240 off such a high prior to the bye week. They 569 00:29:44,319 --> 00:29:50,000 went to UCLA. Remember they lost their quarterback Dylan Royola 570 00:29:50,759 --> 00:29:53,279 before that game. They had to go with a first 571 00:29:53,279 --> 00:29:57,599 time starter freshman, and he had the game of his life. 572 00:29:57,599 --> 00:30:00,079 I think he hit his first sixteen passes in that game. 573 00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,680 He was a dual threat quarterback. And you saw the 574 00:30:03,759 --> 00:30:07,039 Rose Bowl that Saturday night and Nebraska was our five 575 00:30:07,119 --> 00:30:10,400 percent in that game and he beat Ucla. The crowd 576 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:16,440 was probably seventy percent Nebraska. The fan base traveled to California. 577 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:20,000 It was a big game for TJ. Latif the quarterback 578 00:30:20,079 --> 00:30:23,200 because he was from there. Now they've got to sit 579 00:30:23,359 --> 00:30:26,480 around and read depressed clippings for two weeks. Go to 580 00:30:27,039 --> 00:30:30,200 Penn State. Remember Ucla didn't know what to expect with 581 00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,759 a game plan because they didn't have any real game 582 00:30:32,839 --> 00:30:35,480 film on him. He got in in some mop up roles, 583 00:30:35,839 --> 00:30:38,920 but that was the first start. Now Penn State's had 584 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,839 the luxury of seeing what they did and what was successful. 585 00:30:43,079 --> 00:30:46,359 And the other big difference is TJ. Latif's not facing 586 00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,200 the Ucla defense this week. He's facing a very good 587 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:52,359 Penn State defense and he's gonna have trouble. I like 588 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,559 Penn State in this one. I'm gonna go ahead and 589 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:56,640 lay the nine and a half. I know people looked 590 00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,400 at this and saw Nebraska getting nine and a half 591 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:00,799 and they want to under the window. 592 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:01,759 Speaker 1: I'm not doing it. 593 00:31:01,839 --> 00:31:04,319 Speaker 2: Just like we talked about that Oregon game. There's a 594 00:31:04,359 --> 00:31:07,119 reason this line is this high. I'm taking Penn State. 595 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:10,079 I'm laying the points. I expect Penn State to roll big, 596 00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:11,119 thirty to thirteen. 597 00:31:11,799 --> 00:31:13,720 Speaker 1: And I just figured out the reason why this game 598 00:31:14,279 --> 00:31:16,559 was so high, and that's because VR said in his 599 00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,279 Steam segment that the sharp guys bet it. But I 600 00:31:19,279 --> 00:31:22,640 think that they're really overlooking a couple of things here. Sure, 601 00:31:22,759 --> 00:31:26,240 Michigan has won four straight games, but they failed to 602 00:31:26,279 --> 00:31:29,200 cover their last three as a favor, just one in six, 603 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:31,960 and their last seven as a favorite against the spread. 604 00:31:32,279 --> 00:31:35,160 As Marco mentioned, Michigan needed a walk off field goal 605 00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:39,000 not only to beat US, but also Northwestern last week 606 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,839 at Wrigley Field. That was a gross one. But I 607 00:31:41,839 --> 00:31:44,640 do think after a scare, plus, who do they play 608 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,279 next week? All Right? They gonna go home and play 609 00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:49,640 Ohio State. I think it's gonna be tough for them 610 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:51,920 to get excited to play Maryland. This is a Terps 611 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:53,880 team that we were on early. If you guys remember 612 00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:57,319 we had them versus Wisconsin and Washington. I still cannot 613 00:31:57,359 --> 00:32:00,880 believe they lost that Washington game and they had a 614 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:04,119 six game losing streak subsequently after that. But now they 615 00:32:04,119 --> 00:32:07,000 have a chance to play spoiler keep Michigan out of 616 00:32:07,079 --> 00:32:10,519 the college football Playoff. I like Marilyn on the money 617 00:32:10,519 --> 00:32:12,680 line because I need this team to break my heart 618 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:17,559 just one more time this year. That has been the 619 00:32:17,599 --> 00:32:19,640 college edition of bet on It. Let's bring back in 620 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:23,319 the guys. If you guys have a comment, question or concern, 621 00:32:23,359 --> 00:32:25,160 please drop it in the chat. We'll get that recap 622 00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,559 graphic up right now. And of course, if you are 623 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,799 looking for that NFL show, you guys can find it 624 00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,480 right here the Mega Show right here, and also check 625 00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:36,640 out our specialty segments right here on the wager Talk 626 00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:37,359 YouTube channel