Speaker 1: Hey everyone, Ethereum just ripped nineteen percent and Bitcoin pushed
Speaker 1: up eight percent today. But before you call it a
Speaker 1: brand new bull run, take a closer look. This move
Speaker 1: looks a lot more like a short squeeze and a
Speaker 1: liquidity bounce than a full blown trend shift. I'm Alex,
Speaker 1: and today we're breaking down what's actually moving the market,
Speaker 1: why new money hasn't shown up yet, and the key
Speaker 1: levels to track this week. Let's get into it, but
Speaker 1: first a quick word from our sponsor. Okay, So here's
Speaker 1: what's happening. Bitcoin jumped eight percent, trading around sixty nine
Speaker 1: thousand dollars, while Ether surged nineteen percent to roughly twenty
Speaker 1: two hundred. Treasury buybacks helped inject some life back into
Speaker 1: risk assets, and leveraged short sellers got caught off guard.
Speaker 1: Looking across the board, total crypto market cap gained about
Speaker 1: eight percent, sitting at two point five trillion dollars defied
Speaker 1: total value locked rose nearly six percent to around eight
Speaker 1: billion dollars. But here's the caution flag. Stable coin supply
Speaker 1: grew by less than one percent, hovering near three hundred
Speaker 1: and eight billion dollars. Fresh capital just isn't rushing in yet. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Fear and Gred Index climbed five points to forty six,
Speaker 1: which is still in fear territory. Traders are relieved, but
Speaker 1: nobody is euphoric. Derivatives is the strongest narrative today, up
Speaker 1: about twenty percent over seven days. Hyper Liquid is the
Speaker 1: top coin in that sector, up about twenty seven percent
Speaker 1: over seven days. Buyers are spread across sectors today, not
Speaker 1: one corner over on the prediction market. Desk Our Signal
Speaker 1: tracker recently flagged a set up on soccer matchup FC
Speaker 1: argis Potesti. We took the no side and the market
Speaker 1: settled our way for a seventy two percent gain on stake.
Speaker 1: Prediction markets offer clear measurable edges across sports, politics, and
Speaker 1: Macro Signal subscribers got this read ahead of Consensus Tokenmetrics
Speaker 1: dot Com seven days free. Speaking of prediction markets, polymarket
Speaker 1: traders put seventy percent odds on Bitcoin staying above sixty
Speaker 1: eight thousand dollars through August twenty second, But when it
Speaker 1: comes to Bitcoin reaching seventy four thousand dollars this week,
Speaker 1: the odds collapse to just fourteen percent. The market is
Speaker 1: pricing in a real bounce, but one with a tight ceiling.
Speaker 1: Let's cover the five core stories on our radar today. First, Nethermind,
Speaker 1: one of the top Ethereum client teams, decided to quit
Speaker 1: Layer zero's verifier network and join chain Link. It's like
Speaker 1: a fire inspector switching alarm companies because the first kept
Speaker 1: crying wolf. If other verifiers follow suit over the next month,
Speaker 1: Layer zero's dominance and cross chain bridging will face serious pressure. Second,
Speaker 1: Jim Chinos is back calling for another short on strategy.
Speaker 1: He argues there's still eighty billion dollar in arbitrage value
Speaker 1: because strategies Bitcoin proxy model has diluted shareholders while lagging
Speaker 1: spot Bitcoin. If strategy trades below its bitcoin equivalent net
Speaker 1: asset value for five days, that premium trade might finally
Speaker 1: be done. Third Base app rolled out perpetual trading powered
Speaker 1: by hyper liquid, offering up to fifty x leverage straight
Speaker 1: from coinbases consumer wallet that puts decentralized derivatives into everyday
Speaker 1: user hands without an exchange middleman. Watch the volume over
Speaker 1: the next two weeks to see if self custodial perps
Speaker 1: can challenge major centralized venues. Fourth, the OCC is pushing
Speaker 1: to finalize its Genius Act stable coin framework by November.
Speaker 1: Clear federal rules could finally open the door for mainstream
Speaker 1: banks to issue their own dollar back tokens if they
Speaker 1: hit the November deadline. Expect bank pilots before your end.
Speaker 1: Fifth Injective officially became an SEC Registered Transfer agent for tokenization.
Speaker 1: That means a blockchain can legally manage securities record keeping
Speaker 1: under US oversight. If more chains follow, real world asset
Speaker 1: tokenization takes a massive step toward Wall Street adoption. All right,
Speaker 1: before we get into the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay,
Speaker 1: we're back. Let's talk about what to watch for Wrapping
Speaker 1: up the risk map, Bitcoin is still down more than
Speaker 1: forty percent from its all time high, and broader indicators
Speaker 1: remain in bear market territory. The sudden rally looks fueled
Speaker 1: by treasury liquidity and shortcovering rather than organic inflows. For
Speaker 1: this to turn into a true trend reversal, we need
Speaker 1: to see Bitcoin hold above sixty eight thousand dollars for
Speaker 1: the week and total stable coin supply push passed three
Speaker 1: hundred and ten billion dollars for key dates over the
Speaker 1: next seven days. Keep your eyes on the August twenty first,
Speaker 1: polymarket deadline traders give Bitcoin a seventy one percent chance
Speaker 1: of holding above sixty eight thousand on that day and
Speaker 1: sixty four percent odds through August twenty fifth. If those
Speaker 1: levels break, it confirms that we cands are still running
Speaker 1: the show. On the product front, we're continuously upgrading our
Speaker 1: prediction market scanners, giving Signal members faster alerts on high
Speaker 1: conviction polymarket resolutions. Make sure you check the Discord community
Speaker 1: to catch the latest setups. If you got something out
Speaker 1: of this, send it to a friend who's into crypto.
Speaker 1: That's the best way to support us. This is educational content,
Speaker 1: not investment advice. Always do your own research. I'm Alex,
Speaker 1: See you next time.