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<v Speaker 1>And if you guys have been listening to the show

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<v Speaker 1>as of late, you know that every time EXCEL asks

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<v Speaker 1>for a rate increase, an angel gets its wings.

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<v Speaker 2>Now I'm kidding wrongmovie.

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<v Speaker 1>It is super frustrating for me and everybody else to

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<v Speaker 1>sit and watch our Public Utilities Commission continue to rubber

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<v Speaker 1>stamp whatever XL asks for. Why do they ask for

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<v Speaker 1>so many rate increases? Well, my next guest has a

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<v Speaker 1>finger on, actually she has all fingers on the pulse

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<v Speaker 1>of energy in Colorado. She's Amy Oliver. Her work with

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<v Speaker 1>the Independence Institute and Always on Energy Research is a

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<v Speaker 1>must read if you want to know not only about

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<v Speaker 1>where we are in energy production and energy distribution in

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<v Speaker 1>Colorado right now, but we are headed in an extremely expensive,

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<v Speaker 1>dangerous direction, and that is headed towards net zero. She

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<v Speaker 1>just wrote a fantastic column on Complete Colorado dot com

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<v Speaker 1>that not only talks about the stuff we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about it here, but explains how XL makes this money,

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<v Speaker 1>which is why we're seeing so much development. She also

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<v Speaker 1>is a co host of a phenomenal program for nerds

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<v Speaker 1>called power Gab and it is on the Independence Institute's

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube channel with Jake Fogelsong super interesting. They're not very long,

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<v Speaker 1>and they are very very informative if you just want to, like,

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<v Speaker 1>turn it on, listen to it. They occasionally have some

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<v Speaker 1>charts and graphs, but you can just listen to it

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<v Speaker 1>if you want.

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<v Speaker 2>It's outstanding. Amy Oliver, welcome back to the show.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks, and don't be afraid of charts and grass.

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<v Speaker 2>I love charts and grass.

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<v Speaker 1>But sometimes I listen to podcasts in my car when

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<v Speaker 1>I'm driving and they're like, and look at this chart,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm like, wait, stop, stop for the chart. But

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<v Speaker 1>let's talk about this column specifically, because first of all,

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<v Speaker 1>this column for somebody like if you just moved to

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<v Speaker 1>Colorado and you have no idea what's going on about

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<v Speaker 1>energy in Colorado, this article is like a perfect, perfect

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<v Speaker 1>primer of how the system is set up and why

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<v Speaker 1>we are continuing to see rates go.

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<v Speaker 2>Up and up and up and up.

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<v Speaker 1>And now we're just going to be told when the

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<v Speaker 1>power is going to be out when the wind blows

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<v Speaker 1>by Excel Energy.

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<v Speaker 2>So Amy, let's start with that.

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<v Speaker 1>Because we just went through one of these public safety

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<v Speaker 1>I call it the PIPSPS plan, which you can either

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<v Speaker 1>calling a cat or but EXCEL now in order to

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<v Speaker 1>avoid liability, is turning off the power completely and leaving

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<v Speaker 1>people in the dark. I mean, that's pretty much what

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about here, right right.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, so just for folks who don't know, means public

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<v Speaker 4>safety power shut off.

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<v Speaker 3>So they are.

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<v Speaker 4>Shutting it off for our own safety, and we should

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<v Speaker 4>I should let everybody know.

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<v Speaker 3>And I know you have Mandy probably.

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<v Speaker 4>A million times, so I'll add it to a million

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<v Speaker 4>times plus one because you can never hear it too much.

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<v Speaker 4>EXCEL can only operate under what the legislature and so

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<v Speaker 4>it has to be some sort of legislation pass signed

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<v Speaker 4>by the governor and then what the Public Utilities Commission

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<v Speaker 4>allows them to do. Now, they are very high paid

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<v Speaker 4>lobbyists and they have a lot of them that persuade

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<v Speaker 4>lawmakers that'll and then they have really good attorneys that

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<v Speaker 4>appear at the PUC.

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<v Speaker 3>To argue their case. So what is this.

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<v Speaker 4>I love that PSPs public safety power shut off. This

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<v Speaker 4>really stems from the Marshall fire. And what the state

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<v Speaker 4>is doing or allowing them to do, is to.

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<v Speaker 3>They are managing risk through.

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<v Speaker 4>These shutoffs rather than hardening the system, which by the way,

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<v Speaker 4>is going to cost money.

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<v Speaker 3>So right, pareers are.

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<v Speaker 4>Going to pony up money, but it is easier and

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<v Speaker 4>it is less expensive to shut off power to affected

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<v Speaker 4>areas that it would be to quote harden the system.

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<v Speaker 4>Now that doesn't mean they aren't doing that, because they

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<v Speaker 4>are there. They've got I don't know, I think I

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<v Speaker 4>put in there there's something one point nine billion dollars

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<v Speaker 4>or something for wildfire mitigation. But there's also just the

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<v Speaker 4>politics involved in all of it as well and the

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<v Speaker 4>finances that are involved. So Excel gets makes a whole

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<v Speaker 4>lot more money if they get to build new capital

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<v Speaker 4>assets rather than just maintain what they already have.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean that they are.

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<v Speaker 4>Incentivized by the legislature and by the Public Utility Commission

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<v Speaker 4>to build because if they build, that's an asset that

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<v Speaker 4>goes into what to know is their asset base, and

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<v Speaker 4>then they get a guaranteed rate of return. Now, when

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<v Speaker 4>I say guaranteed, it's usually guaranteed over a certain amount

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<v Speaker 4>of time.

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<v Speaker 3>They have to go back and.

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<v Speaker 4>Reargue it, but it generally goes between nine and ten percent.

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<v Speaker 3>And do the math. So if you can build something.

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<v Speaker 4>Let's say your asset base in twenty twenty five, it's

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<v Speaker 4>ten billion dollars. But if you build, oh, I don't know,

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<v Speaker 4>four or five new generating stations, you can or generating plants,

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<v Speaker 4>and then your asset base by twenty thirty goes to

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<v Speaker 4>fifteen billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>Do the math.

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<v Speaker 4>Ten percent of fifteen billions a whole lot better than

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<v Speaker 4>ten percent of ten billion.

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<v Speaker 1>Let me go back to the fact that the choice

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<v Speaker 1>has been made by Excel. Their choice is in order

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<v Speaker 1>to mitigate liability, and then they say, for your own

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<v Speaker 1>safety and protection is to turn off the power. This,

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<v Speaker 1>for me, is the ultimate sort of flex by someone

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<v Speaker 1>who has a monopoly. Because if they didn't have a

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<v Speaker 1>monopoly and they had competition in the market, if their

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<v Speaker 1>competitors said, you know what, we're going to keep the

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<v Speaker 1>power on one hundred percent of the time, we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to bury our power lines. We're going to eat that cost,

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<v Speaker 1>but we're going to make sure you have reliable energy,

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<v Speaker 1>well then it's not really a great choice, is it.

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<v Speaker 1>But because they have no competition, the choice to simply

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<v Speaker 1>say we're going to eliminate our life ability by turning

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<v Speaker 1>off the power. We're so sorry, but it's for your

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<v Speaker 1>own good. That is incredibly frustrating.

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<v Speaker 4>To me, it is it is to avoid another nine

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<v Speaker 4>figure settlement, I mean six hundred and forty million dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>And they didn't they didn't, you know, acknowledge fault.

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<v Speaker 4>They just said, this is what the this is what

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<v Speaker 4>we'll we'll pay out. And by the way, that was

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<v Speaker 4>the apparently two sources that sort of came together. There

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<v Speaker 4>was some burning embers and then there was a down

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<v Speaker 4>power line that sparked and that was the Marshall Fire.

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<v Speaker 3>And we all know what happened there.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, the devastation was just I mean, it was cataclysmic,

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<v Speaker 4>But that was to that's to avoid a six hundred

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<v Speaker 4>and forty million dollars settlement.

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<v Speaker 3>And it is very much.

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<v Speaker 4>What California does is they shut off power ahead of

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<v Speaker 4>these events. Now, Wyoming does not shut off power. So

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<v Speaker 4>why I'm talking with a friend in Torington. Why if

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<v Speaker 4>you're new to Colorado and you think the wind is

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<v Speaker 4>bad here north to Wyoming.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, they've got real wins.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>And friend, the same time that power was shut off

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<v Speaker 4>in Colorado, they were having really bad wins up in Wyoming.

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<v Speaker 4>And I said, your power shut off, She goes, No,

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<v Speaker 4>wasn't shut off in Wyoming.

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<v Speaker 3>She said, we did have a.

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<v Speaker 4>Slight outage and they were out there and got it

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<v Speaker 4>back up right away.

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<v Speaker 3>Because of course we want to make sure.

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<v Speaker 4>Hospitals are nursing homes which have backup generation.

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<v Speaker 3>But it doesn't last, you know, it's they probably aren't

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<v Speaker 3>going to be able to go three or four or.

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<v Speaker 4>Five days without it. So they got their power back

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<v Speaker 4>on within a few hours. And this is in the

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<v Speaker 4>middle of a wind storm, a wind event.

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<v Speaker 3>That was happening, and that was up in Wyoming.

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<v Speaker 4>But they also just have a different I think, actually, Mandy,

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<v Speaker 4>I think it comes down to this. Elected officials, utilities,

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<v Speaker 4>just people in positions of leadership have had more honest

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<v Speaker 4>conversation with residents of Wyoming than our elected officials than

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<v Speaker 4>our people in positions of leadership have had with Colorado's

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<v Speaker 4>And that is that there's a trade.

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<v Speaker 3>Off, right right, you want the power to stay on.

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<v Speaker 4>We've got a hardened the grid and this is what

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<v Speaker 4>it's going to look like now it may go off,

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<v Speaker 4>and they've also limited the amount of liability that because

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<v Speaker 4>they've made those trade offs, They've they've had that conversation

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<v Speaker 4>and they've made those decisions.

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<v Speaker 3>That means that people are saying, yep, got it. We

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<v Speaker 3>want the power to stay on and we won't. We're

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<v Speaker 3>not going to blame you.

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<v Speaker 4>For absolutely everything if you've done all that you can

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<v Speaker 4>to mitigate it. And so they've had those conversations. You

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<v Speaker 4>don't have those in Colorado.

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<v Speaker 1>To your point, let's talk about that mitigation, because even

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<v Speaker 1>when Excel does try to do certain kinds of mitigation,

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<v Speaker 1>people complain they don't want things cut. It's so ugly

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<v Speaker 1>when you cut all the brush around. So we created

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<v Speaker 1>this dynamic where XCEL absolutely has plausible deniability. In my eyes,

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<v Speaker 1>I said after this, I'm like, you know, I think

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<v Speaker 1>what happened in the Marshall fire was a catastrophic natural disaster.

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<v Speaker 1>It wasn't Excel's negligence that created that problem. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe they could have done something a little bit better,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's not like they have, you know, infrastructure that's

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<v Speaker 1>falling apart. It's infrastructure that could be better, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>not horrible. I don't think they should have been held liable.

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<v Speaker 1>I understand want someone to blame, but if there had

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<v Speaker 1>been a lightning strike, there would have been nobody to sue, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and so in that case, I think XL has plausible deniability.

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<v Speaker 1>But their job is to deliver power. So how can

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<v Speaker 1>you ensure that you are going to deliver power consistently?

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<v Speaker 2>And I don't know if you've seen Gabe Evans.

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<v Speaker 1>Bill that requires energy sources to be reliable for thirty days,

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<v Speaker 1>like continuously, which is going to be a real problem

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<v Speaker 1>for green energy. But let me ask you this about

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<v Speaker 1>the PUC, about the Public Utilities Commission, This current commission

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<v Speaker 1>is completely captured by green energy advocates, right, is there

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<v Speaker 1>anyone on the PUC.

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<v Speaker 3>That's not one hundred percent?

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<v Speaker 4>Now I would say this with this caveat one hundred

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<v Speaker 4>percent because and by the way, two people from Boulder,

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<v Speaker 4>one from from Eagle County, so you have very far

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<v Speaker 4>left counties that are represented. So there's no geographical, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>equal representation. There is no diversity of thought, you know, philosophically.

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<v Speaker 4>The one thing I would say is that I do

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<v Speaker 4>think can we talk about Jake and I talk about

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<v Speaker 4>this on power Gap. We do think that Eric Blank,

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<v Speaker 4>who's the chairman, is starting to see it like he's

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<v Speaker 4>and once you see what the problem is, you.

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<v Speaker 3>Can't unsee it.

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<v Speaker 4>So there are times when I think he's blanking sos because,

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<v Speaker 4>in particular on the clean Heat plan, where we have

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<v Speaker 4>to get rid of all of our natural gas appliances,

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<v Speaker 4>He's like, not sure we can force a utility that

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<v Speaker 4>only provides natural gas service essentially to commit suicide.

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<v Speaker 3>Now those are my words.

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<v Speaker 2>Right right, those are kids.

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<v Speaker 4>But you can see by his questioning that he's starting

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<v Speaker 4>to and he's also when you hear him talk, he's

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<v Speaker 4>super concerned about cost. I mean he says this in

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<v Speaker 4>interviews with other with publications and things like that, cost

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<v Speaker 4>is what he is worried about. I'm worried about cost,

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<v Speaker 4>but I'm also worried one hundred percent about reliability because

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<v Speaker 4>we are going to be able to keep the lights on?

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<v Speaker 2>No, we're not, and you know, if we are.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the things I have liked about Governor Jared

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<v Speaker 1>Poulis is his focus on trying to bring tech to Colorado,

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<v Speaker 1>not just you know, workers, but industry and how in

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<v Speaker 1>the world are we going to be able to track tech,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, data centers, things that require huge amounts of

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<v Speaker 1>power on renewable energy. That's insane. Amy, I have another

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<v Speaker 1>question about that though. Right now, if we were if

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<v Speaker 1>we were at one hundred percent renewables, right, and we're

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<v Speaker 1>in the middle of winter and the wind is it

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<v Speaker 1>blowing and the sun is not shining. We can buy

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<v Speaker 1>energy from surrounding states. But if the green energy advocates

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<v Speaker 1>get that all, if the whole country goes green energy,

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<v Speaker 1>where does the energy come from?

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<v Speaker 2>Where does the power come from?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it seems like you would eventually run out

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<v Speaker 1>of places to buy it from.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, so here's what happens.

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<v Speaker 4>Maybe you can buy it from another state, but if

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<v Speaker 4>you're in the middle of a severe weather event, chances

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<v Speaker 4>are its regional. So Wyoming isn't going to send power

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<v Speaker 4>to Colorado if it doesn't have it and it's and

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<v Speaker 4>its residents need it.

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<v Speaker 3>Kansas isn't going to give us power if its residents

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<v Speaker 3>need it. Think about when I seventy is shut, it's

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<v Speaker 3>Kansas are if it's shut them.

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<v Speaker 4>Let's say, you know somewhere in a Rapahoe County to

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<v Speaker 4>the Kansas line. It's also shut from the Kansas line

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<v Speaker 4>to someplace else they need the power. Same thing with

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<v Speaker 4>you know, Arizona or New Mexico or Utah.

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<v Speaker 3>And people have asked me, well, so what do you do?

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<v Speaker 3>And I said, well, get a generator number one, or

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<v Speaker 3>get a couple of them.

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<v Speaker 4>But if I lived near the Utah border, I'd see

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<v Speaker 4>if I could throw an extension quarter over the line

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<v Speaker 4>and see if I could just plug it in, because

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<v Speaker 4>I guarantee you Utah will have power. Utah has is

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<v Speaker 4>really the gold standard of reliable power I think in

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<v Speaker 4>the country. Based on their policy, Colorado is the opposite

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<v Speaker 4>of that, and so we won't we won't have power.

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<v Speaker 4>And we've actually modeled this at AOER. We model cost

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<v Speaker 4>and reliability and based on even the Governor's preferred plan

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<v Speaker 4>that came out of the color Energy Office after twenty forty,

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<v Speaker 4>based on historical weather patterns. Because we look at weather patterns,

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<v Speaker 4>we go back decades and look at weather patterns to

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<v Speaker 4>see what they could look like. There are times when

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<v Speaker 4>Colorado there won't be sun, there won't be wind, and

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<v Speaker 4>we're going to run out of battery backup, and you

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<v Speaker 4>could be out of power for seventy two hours in

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<v Speaker 4>the middle of brutal cold weather.

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<v Speaker 1>Amy, I just asked my assistant chat GPT, the best

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<v Speaker 1>assistant I've ever had to play with you, Yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>to please tell me what would be required if we

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<v Speaker 1>were on all a renewable energy, what kind of using

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<v Speaker 1>today's battery technology? How many batteries would be required to

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<v Speaker 1>run the Denver Metro for forty eight hours?

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<v Speaker 2>Okay anywhere?

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<v Speaker 1>They said, anywhere between sixty five thousand and eighty five

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<v Speaker 1>thousand giant truck size batteries that would take over three

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<v Speaker 1>acres of just battery, battery, battery, battery. And I just

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<v Speaker 1>think to myself, like, you see how these car fires go.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you imagine a battery backup plantation, which is what

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<v Speaker 1>it would need to be catching on fire? I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it would be an environmental disaster.

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<v Speaker 2>That would be massive.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean just it would be I just don't think

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<v Speaker 1>people have thought this through all the way.

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<v Speaker 3>And you're putting it into the weather.

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<v Speaker 4>It's not like a battery you keep stored at your

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<v Speaker 4>at your house at seventy degrees a consistent temperature. These

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<v Speaker 4>are batteries that are that are out in the weather.

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<v Speaker 4>And and Mandy, that's just assuming you.

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<v Speaker 3>Could get those batteries right the way.

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<v Speaker 4>The batteries that the Colorado Energy Office is saying they

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<v Speaker 4>want to use these twelve hour batteries, they don't exist.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, not for the level that we need to put.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, we're putting we're putting our grid into what we're

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<v Speaker 4>relying on technology that doesn't exist.

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<v Speaker 3>That's it. It's nuts.

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<v Speaker 4>And the whole thing about data center, I mean, I

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<v Speaker 4>don't know if you. I'm sure you read it as

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<v Speaker 4>thorough and thoughtful as you are. The I think was

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<v Speaker 4>it the Denver Metro Chamber or somebody who had one

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<v Speaker 4>of these, one of these panels, and there were it

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<v Speaker 4>was all on data centers, and they asked this guy,

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<v Speaker 4>can can you run a data.

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<v Speaker 3>Center on wind and solar and batteries? And he just

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<v Speaker 3>flat he just said, no.

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<v Speaker 2>No, you can't.

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<v Speaker 3>Why that's why. And I was in a I was

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<v Speaker 3>in another.

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<v Speaker 4>I was at a conference listening to a speaker who

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<v Speaker 4>said Excel had been approached by ten data centers.

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<v Speaker 3>Nine of them went to Wyoming.

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<v Speaker 4>WHOA, yeah, so that there are more out there, there

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<v Speaker 4>are more, There are more I heard today. I want

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<v Speaker 4>to say there are five or six out there now,

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<v Speaker 4>but there have been nine that have gone to Wyoming.

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<v Speaker 4>And this, this this forced march to decarbonization net zero

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<v Speaker 4>is it's like a it's like a jobs act for

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<v Speaker 4>Wyoming and Utah, in Kansas and everything else. The point

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<v Speaker 4>is they're going to go where the power is reliable,

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<v Speaker 4>and even if they want it clean, they want you know,

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<v Speaker 4>they want to get as close to decurbanization as possible,

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<v Speaker 4>they still want to have some kind of thermal generation

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<v Speaker 4>backup they needed.

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<v Speaker 1>Did you see that Meta has now contracted with three

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<v Speaker 1>small modular reactor companies. They're planning their next data center

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<v Speaker 1>in New Albany, Ohio, which is right next to my

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<v Speaker 1>husband's hometown. So the next time we go back to

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<v Speaker 1>my husband's home, Dawn, I'm like, we're going to New Albany.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to check this out. But they're using small

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<v Speaker 1>They're intending on using small modular reactors, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>that the data center problem will probably be solved with

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<v Speaker 1>small modular reactors. But are those even going to be

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<v Speaker 1>allowed in Colorado? Because of the anti nuclear sentiment that

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<v Speaker 1>exists with the environmentalists here. It's like every time we

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<v Speaker 1>take a step forward, there's somebody to shove us five

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<v Speaker 1>steps back.

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<v Speaker 4>We'd have to change existing law. So Colorado did include

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<v Speaker 4>nuclear as clean.

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<v Speaker 3>But remember in.

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<v Speaker 4>Law it says by twenty fifty Colorado will be one

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<v Speaker 4>hundred percent wind and solar or something renewable. So they

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<v Speaker 4>don't consider nuclear as renewable, so that law has to change.

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<v Speaker 3>Otherwise, why would anybody invest in nuclear?

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, it's clean under Colorado statute, and it's listen and

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<v Speaker 4>it's just clean, let's be honest.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and it's a hundred percent reliable.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean it is a workhourse that when I was

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<v Speaker 4>in North Carolina during a power outage, the one power

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<v Speaker 4>source that was just cranking along was nuclear and ten

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<v Speaker 4>thousand megawatts all the time, twenty four to seven, three

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<v Speaker 4>hundred and sixty five days a year. But Colorado, you

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<v Speaker 4>wouldn't invest in it because by twenty fifty your portfolio

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<v Speaker 4>must change. It must reflect one hundred percent wind, solar,

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<v Speaker 4>and I guess battery. So Colorado has to change its law.

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<v Speaker 2>Good.

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<v Speaker 3>We had a good first step last year, but it's

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<v Speaker 3>got to go further.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I just got this text message from one of

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<v Speaker 1>our Wyoming listeners, Amy. I'm speaking with Amy Oliver. She's

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<v Speaker 1>with the Independence Institute and the host of power gab

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<v Speaker 1>on IV's YouTube channel. Mandy, we want to thank you

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<v Speaker 1>profusely for all the economic development you are providing us.

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<v Speaker 1>There are currently fifteen data centers in Wyoming, five more

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<v Speaker 1>under construction. So I do have this. Let's see, we

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<v Speaker 1>have a couple of questions. One, Mandy, please ask your

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<v Speaker 1>guests if Xcel's insurance company could possibly be mandating the shutoffs.

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<v Speaker 2>What does that look like?

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<v Speaker 1>Do you know the inside baseball on those machinations within XL.

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<v Speaker 4>I actually don't know that, but I would suspect the

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<v Speaker 4>answer to that would be yes, because Excel's insurance company

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<v Speaker 4>was on the.

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<v Speaker 3>Hook for a good part of that six hundred and

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<v Speaker 3>forty dollars.

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<v Speaker 4>So I am I'm sure that they are saying to Excel,

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<v Speaker 4>you need to mitigate this any way possible. And also,

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<v Speaker 4>you know what it may be too that in the future,

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<v Speaker 4>your property insurance.

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<v Speaker 3>Your homeowner's insurance may.

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<v Speaker 4>Be asking the same thing because they don't want to

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<v Speaker 4>pay for it again.

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<v Speaker 1>Amy Oliver a fantastic guest. I'm telling you guys need

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<v Speaker 1>to watch Power Gap because she goes. She and Jake

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<v Speaker 1>go just as deep, super interesting, different topics every single

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<v Speaker 1>and it's like a half hour. It's like a half

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<v Speaker 1>hour out of your day, and you'll be a million

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<v Speaker 1>times smarter. Amy, Thank you so much, great great column.

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<v Speaker 1>I put it on my blog today. I hope everybody

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<v Speaker 1>reads it. And hopefully we'll talk to again soon.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, thanks many appreciate it.