Speaker 1: Welcome to another episode of the Chicks on the Right podcast,
where we have friend and sponsor of the show, Zach
Abraham from Bulwart Capital Management, with us to talk about
things related to the money world. And there is a
new report this is hot off the presses from the
National Association of Realtors, and we've known this, We've actually
been talking about this on our show a little bit.
That the median first time home buyer in twenty twenty
five is forty, which is the oldest it's ever been.
Like back in nineteen ninety one, people were buying their
first places in their late twenties, and even in twenty
twenty it was thirty three, which is seven years younger.
So why I mean, I know, you know, people are
drowning in their student loans. They got high rent and
high costs of stuff.
Speaker 2: But like, is this.
Speaker 1: Really going to be the new normal now?
Speaker 2: Man? I you know, yes and no, I mean eventually
these things. So you have the you have an incredible
amount of inventory owned by baby boomers, right, So think
primary houses, think secondary homes, vacation homes, all that kind
of stuff. Right, So the baby boomers are the most
wealthy generation, biggest up up until the Millennials, the biggest
generation by far, the wealthiest generation in the history of
the country. So as those baby boomers age right through
liquidation of the states, through passing on the assets to
kids who will turn around and sell those assets, you're
you're gonna, you're gonna, you're gonna get more supply out
on the market. Unfortunately, and and here's kind of the crazy,
the crazy place about where we're at. Unfortunately, all of
this stimulus, right, zero percent infrastrates for thirteen years, and
you know, all the different things that they've done, the
COVID and all that stuff, all that stuff has been
wonderful if you owned an asset. It's been horrible if
you didn't, right, because all of those things helped to
hold prices up. And this is where you know, and
you can see this throughout, at least in my opinion,
you can see it throughout our culture in so many
different places. Right where we now are facing problems that
are direct results of us avoiding the pain of our
own choices. Right, So make all these bad choices and
gin up a real estate bubble in two thousand and eight,
two thousand and nine. We come around after that and
flood the market with low interest rates push prices back up. Now,
people I've always said, you know, we've gotten so paranoid
and freaked out over recessions in this country. One of
the things we forget about are the benefits of recessions
and what are they. Well, typically recessions, high earners typically
do worse than low earners, right, because you think about it, like,
people don't lose their job in most recessions making pizzas
at pizza. Right. What happens though, stocks go down in price,
homes go down in price, use car prices drop. So
who benefits from all that? It's typically the people at
the lower end of the scale. Now, when you get
into really bad economic contractions, usually it's people on the
lower end to suffer the worst. But usually in a recession,
the eighteen to twenty six year old.
Speaker 3: Crowd doesn't get hurt much, right, they're not that expensive,
they don't cost a lot to keep on Who gets
cut it's usually the guy with the corner office making
two hundred and fifty to three hundred grand a year.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 2: So, what we've learned is that we've decided that we
like all of the upside of free markets and capitalism,
but we want to get rid of the downside. Now
we're facing the consequences of those actions. And what did
you hear talk about? Now that we're facing those what
are you here? What do they discussed? Oh, well, let's
launch a fifty year mortgage, like I said, they do that, here,
launch one hundred year more. Again, all of these things
are about extending and pretending as opposed to dealing with
the actual issue. So what you need? Ironically, and this
is scary, but I'm just saying that, you know, this
is the way the world works, right, you get the
good times, you get the bad times. What is the
thing what you need in real estate to make it
more affordable is you need a the prices of houses
to drop, right, and you need mortgage rates to drop.
That happens in a recession.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 1: So when people say that, they're like like when gen
Z is super mad at our generation or the boomer generation,
it sounds like they kind of have a point, Except
it's not us that's making the decisions.
Speaker 4: It's our politicians.
Speaker 2: Right. Yeah. Well, and we've talked about this a lot
with clients, because I've had clients call me when I
make comments like that and they're like, Zach, don't blame
baby boomer and guys, I'm not blaming you, right, I'm
saying generally, when you look at the last forty years policy,
almost all of our policy has been aimed at baby boomers, right, meaning,
you know, we step in and we bail out banks
and do all that kind of stuff. Who did that help?
It helped the people that owned the assets, right, that
owned the homes. It didn't help people that didn't. So
you know, I mean, think about it. I know several
friends who were able to buy their first home post
eight oh nine because prices dropped so much and they
didn't lose their job, right, So there again, it's it's
you know, it's like the Bible talks about there's a
season for everything, a season for planning, a season for harvesting,
a season for birth, a season for death, all that
kind of stuff. When you try to mute out the
bad parts of the economic cycle, you're going right. And
it's why we say in economics that every recession is
the mother of the next economic advance, and every economic
advance is the mother of the next recession. And without
that sick locality, you don't get turnal. You don't get
upward mobility, you don't get the big just keep compounding
and growing and growing, and there's just there's none of that,
you know, turnover.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm sorry. I was just going to say. But
from a retirement standpoint, like I look at our kids,
both of them are older kids. We have three kids.
Both of our older kids have homes, but like the
middle one lived in an apartment a really long time,
like in an expensive apartment. I look at some of
these kids who are living in apartments. They're literally like
pissing their money away. Right, But from a retirement standpoint,
like if you look at these kids and I say, god,
the kids if they are not getting home until they're forty.
From a retirement standpoint, and you're the guy, this is
your thing, you counsel people in retirement all the time.
Does that hurt people?
Speaker 1: Like?
Speaker 4: Are you? Are you counseling people and saying you really
need to own a home rather than be renting an apartment?
Like what's better? Or does it really freaking matter at
this point? Does it matter?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 2: I will tell you what. So in most cases I'm
telling young people to avoid buying a home right now.
Really yeah, yeah, because what's worse than not owning a home.
What's worse than not owning a home is getting stuck
in a home that you paid two much for and
being stuck for ten to twelve years being underwater and
you can't refine answer it out of it. Yeah, right,
So let's first avoid that. And what I would say is, no,
it's not deathnell to your financial future if you compensate
for it. Meaning this whole adage that a home is
your best investment. It usually ends up being where the
biggest portion of people's net worth is, but it's not
their best investment. The leverage of the loan is what
makes it a good investment, Okay, Right, When you actually
look at the cost of owning a home, the return
on a home on an annualized basis, it's not very good.
You're probably looking about a four and a half percent
in net return, where in the stock market you're looking
at like eleven and a half. So what I would
say is, if you're looking at a house right now,
and to get into a house that you think you
can that will work for you and you can afford
let's say a thirty two hundred dollars mortgage, Okay, I
still remember the days that somebody said thirty two hundred
dollars mortgage and you were like, oh my god, you're right. Now,
it's just wild to think about it now now it
sounds like, boy, what a steal, you know. But so
you would be better off getting into like an apartment
where you pay twenty two hundred a month and pocketing
that money and investing that money and sticking it aside
and waiting. But I will tell people I made this
mistake as a twenty five year old. Don't do it
if you are looking to buy a home or another
asset because you are afraid that you will not be
able to afford it someday, don't buy it. Okay, don't
buy it, because if you have that fear, so does
everybody else. And what does that mean. It means you're
in an environment or a marketplace where people are paying
too much for an asset. And like Warren Buffett says,
and the supplies to how as well, nothing will define
the return of your investment as much as the price
you pay for it. Right, So bottom line, be patient.
Do not let what you're hearing around you rush you
into making bad decisions. You have an uphill battle as
a young person facing what you're facing economically. By going
and paying way too much for a home, you will
compound your economic problems. You will not reduce them. The
other thing that you want to take a look at
right now is look at the spread right now between
the cost of home ownership and the cost of renting. Okay,
I think that that spread will continue to get wider,
and as it does, look at young people and go,
I know you want to own, but not at too
much of a price. And as that spread keeps widening,
that is your advantage and whatever that spread between your
rent and what your rent and what that mortgage would be.
Just the other thing too, to tell you people is this, guys,
pain is so overrated. Like you look out and you're like, oh,
it's five years. Just if you can take one piece
of advice for me, whenever you hear somebody say that,
tell yourself start doing it today. The five years will
go buy that.
Speaker 4: Fast, right it?
Speaker 2: Just if you can get If I could tell young
people one thing, because I get it, between the spaces
of fifteen to twenty five, time goes slow. Yeah, it
starts moving a lot quicker, guys. And at the end
of the day. Here's the other crazy thing too. At
the end of the day, it makes no difference whether
you buy your first home at twenty five or thirty.
It doesn't. But what you pay for that house does.
That makes a big difference. See, and this is free advice.
Speaker 1: You're stolling out, and people can get more of your
free advice just by tuning into your podcast or by
asking for a risk.
Speaker 4: Review with you. How do they do that?
Speaker 2: Yes, well, first they can just google us Know Your
Risk pod cast any place you find podcasts. We're going
to be on at Apple and all those different Spotify,
all that stuff. And then just Google Know Your Risk
or excuse me, Bullwarkcapitalmanagement dot com. Go there, sign up
for a free consultation. Like you were saying, no obligation
and yeah, we're not hard to find. Is Google Know
Your Risk podcast and Bullwark Capital Management. I hope a.
Speaker 1: Bunch of young people listen to this episode because that's
the good nuggets in there right.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, Thank you, Zach, Thank you ladies.
Speaker 2: You've got investment advisory services offered through Trek Financial loc
and SEC registered investment advisor. The opinions expressed in this
programmer for general informational purposes only, and are not intended
to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or
on any specific security. Any references to performance of security
so it thought to be materially accurate, and actual performance
may different. Investments involved risk and are not guaranteed. Past
performance doesn't guarantee future results Trek twenty four three zero
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