Speaker 1: The college football championships are upon us. That's right. We're
gonna get in the SEC Championship, the Big Ten Championship,
and of course the Big Twelfth Championship, along with some
best bets up next on bet on It. Welcome into
bet on It, Kelly Stewart. Here, Yanni the Greek Marco DiAngelo.
All right, guys, this is gonna be a shorter show today,
but we've still got lots of information for you, and
we're gonna go right off the top with Marco DiAngelo.
The Big Twelve Championship is on ABC at twelve pm
Easter or number eleven BYU is a huge underdog, as
Marco would like to say, plus thirteen and a half
versus number five Texas Tech total fifty and a half
right now on the Odds logic screen. Marco, Okay, hand up.
I know nobody ever likes for me to talk about
my winning bets. They only like me to talk about
my losing bats in the comment section. But I do
have Texas Tech at twelve to one here, Marco. But
all week long on social media, I've been saying, b
why you should get into the college football Playoff. I
think this team is really solid. This line's a little
bit high. Do I take a little BYU here and
hope for a middle or am I just getting greedy
at this point? Oh?
Speaker 2: Kelly, you know me. Every time you ask me a
question about you know, I should I hedge something? I'm
old school. I'm sorry, And it goes back to my
horse racing days where the old adages, and somebody offers
you a good price, funnel horse, take it because a
cashier's check never goes laying horses due. In this case,
if you're holding twelve to one, Kelly, why not just
protect you know what your one was, to make it
a free roll, and that free role you could still
cash both because they're getting thirteen and a half. I
look at this one and obviously the knee jerk reaction
with what Texas Tech has done. They've already played one
another once during the regular season. They've been a machine
all year. They're eleven and one straight up. But not
only are they eleven to one straight up, they're eleven
and one against the spread, which means they've exceeded the
markets expectations almost every single week. But with that said,
and you alluded to it, you think BYU's in.
Speaker 1: I don't.
Speaker 2: I think the only way BYU ends up getting in
is they they have to win this game Texas Tech.
They're slam duck. Doesn't matter what happens in this game,
They're gonna make it. And you go back to that
first game. BYU killed themselves in that game. They had
three turnovers which saw them fall behind, and then they
had to abandon the game plan a little bit. They
had to pass more than I think they wanted to
in that game. They need to come in here and
establish the run game. And the one thing about BYU
and the other team from the Big twelve that I
was very high on and I cashed my season win
total ticket with it was Utah is because they have
that brand of football where they play big, physical football.
They have good defenses. And if you look, even though
they lost by twenty two points and we're minus three
and the turnovers in that game, they held Texas Tech
to their second lowest output of both points in yardage.
I think they got a shot in this game to
keep this game close. We always talk about revenge and
in season, and you know a lot of people blindly say, oh, hey,
you know, it's hard to beat the same team twice
in the same year.
Speaker 1: No, it's not.
Speaker 2: It happens more often than you think. But the difference
of why I like to look at the dog in
a situation like that is, if you're Texas Tech, what
do you change from the last game? You beat them
by twenty two points? But your BYU, if you're going
to the chalkboard, you're coming with a different game plan,
and Texas Tech doesn't know what that is yet. And
so for me, I like BYU plus the thirteen and
a half. And you know what, I don't have a
problem for the show. It's officially BYU plus thirteen and
a half, but because of the adjustments I said at
the beginning in Texas Tech not gonna know what they're doing,
I wouldn't have a problem with a first half wager
on BYU as well.
Speaker 1: All right, well, I'm gonna take BYU plus the points
here with Marco DiAngelo. And I'm also going to argue
that the reason why I think BYU should get in
is because I don't think Notre Dame or Miami should
get in. So if you guys disagree with me in
the comments, that's why eleven and one BYU deserves to
get in two Big twelve teams the ACC. Really, we're
gonna get to that at the end of the show.
VR is going to talk about the SEC Championship game
also on ABC four pm Eastern. Number three Georgia is
a two and a half point favorite over number ten
Alabama forty seven and a half. VR, I'm gonna talk
about my bets again just because the comments second little
bit so much. I got Georgia ten to one to
win the national Championship. I didn't really have a big
interest in this game. I think it matters more to
Alabama than it does to george I think Georgia's in
regardless of a win. Here, break down this one for us.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is the best time of the college football
season over the next couple weeks when we got these
championship week, Bowls, playoffs, Like, there's so many money opportunities,
and it's all because of the narratives that have been
built throughout the season. And this is the sheet right
here that has the real rankings, the real ratings of
these teams. And here's what I'm gonna talk about real quickly.
Speaker 1: This is legit.
Speaker 3: These two teams are pretty much close to where they
should be. And here's what I mean. Alabama is ranked
tenth all right in the polls right now. Georgia's ranked third.
That's wrong, that's the mistake. Georgia's right below Alabama rating wise,
they're they're like coin flip with each other, but of
Alabama's above them right now all my power ratings, even
though you look at Georgia at least on paper with
the better record and a comparison when we get this
late in the season, like a lot of these teams
are there because of their record or they made it
through their conference, but there's a lot of phonies still around.
Like a perfect example. I just got to share this,
like the fact that I went through my rankings for
every single game on this and that I see they
have Virginia's the sixteenth ranked team in the country. They're
not even in my top forty power rating wise. Ten
State's top ten and Virginia's not top forty. Like that's
where there's so much value in college football. Getting back
to Alabama Georgia, this is the TV game twelve and
two on those now thirty two and ten in college
football and bed on it. I'll take that for me.
It's easy I'm on Georgia. Like Kelly, I have a
future on Georgia to win the SEC, so I'll be
automatically on Alabama. And here's why I like Alabama in
this spot. Now. The wise guys are on Georgia. They
laid the one and a half right away. That's why
you're looking at two and a half and don't be
surprised if it gets the three. That's why I've sat
back hoping I don't have to lay juice to get
that three on Alabama because, like I said, power rating wise,
I have Georgia right below Alabama. And here's why strength
of schedule. Alabama's had the tougher strength of schedule. Offensively,
Alabama's the better team defensively, they're extremely comparable. So I
have the team with the better strength of schedule. I
have the team with the better offense and more or
less comparable defenses.
Speaker 1: I also have the.
Speaker 3: Team that already beat Georgia in Georgia earlier in the season.
I already have the team that's owned Georgia, beating them
nine of the last ten and catching three points with Alabama.
It's the right side, win or lose. Like this line
should not be two and a half three. This is
a coin flip type of game. There really is no
home field advantage to speak of. These two teams know
each other extremely well. They know where they're playing. Take
the points with Alabama again, not a best bet having
gotten the window with it. But for me, it's an
automatic bet because of my future on Georgia. It's an
automatic hedge. If I love Georgia, I wouldn't. I'd let
that ride because now I'm getting you know, upwards of
three four to one on a minus two and a
half favorite on a minus you know, one thirty one
forty and getting two three to one. You gotta let
that ride. But I don't like Georgia. I do like Alabama.
Speaker 1: Here all right, Iferre, This is a question I got
on the Kelly and Murray podcast this week, But I said,
this isn't a Kellyan Murray question, this is a VR question.
And the question was why not just tease Alabama with
this low total in college football? Explain to everybody who
hasn't heard or teasing college football rant before why this
is a bad idea?
Speaker 3: Well, Number one, you have to find another team to
tie them into. That's right, you're putting yourself behind the
eight ball to begin with. We also know that mathematically,
it's been proven already that going through the key numbers
of three, six, and seven don't put you in a
plus EV category when laying minus one, twenty one, twenty five,
and one thirty like most are doing on teasers. So
I can't make it any simpler than you're placing a
negative EV bet and now just hoping to be lucky again.
I've moved steam for twenty thirty years now, and I
remember one time, one time only that we've ever teased
college football, and it came down to, like last year
or the year before, it just fit their criteria. But
otherwise it's a negative EV play because there's just too
much variance in the scoring compared to the NFL. Even
in the NFL, where our point differential is about ten
points off the point spread, it's a lot greater in
college football. So even in NFL, where we say the
lines are extremely tight, it's hard to beat. The average
point spread is ten points off the final score. That's
why six points don't help you. Before you say, well,
well how about we do ten point teasers, the big
you gotta pay makes that negative V. Also in college football,
the variance is much greater. The difference between the final
score and the point spread differential is much greater. Those
six points will not help you in college football. It's
like teasing totals. It's just not going to help you.
So don't do it if you're not willing to lay
one ten. The teasers not a good bet.
Speaker 1: All right, you heard it from the horse's mouth, and
I actually just wrote the video team. I said, hey,
I think we need to do a special Wager Talk
Insiders edition of VRS Power Ratings.
Speaker 3: We're gonna work, especially with the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we should do that. So if you guys aren't
an insider right now is the time to join. Two
dollars and ninety nine. Since a month Dapazz, Backslash and
Siders get you early access to shows like that on
it Marco's Deli, and of course, every once in a
while we let you guys into that premium subscriber only
steam room with VR. Okay, guys, I'm gonna talk about
the Big Ten Championship and this one's gonna be interesting
eight pm Eastern on Fox Number two Indiana plus four
and a half. That one's taken some early money at
number one, Ohio State. Forty eight and a half is
the total. And that's a pretty low total for this
Indiana Hoosiers team. And we'll get to that here in
just a minute. Anybody want to guess win the last
time Ohio State didn't beat Indiana. That's a trick question
from the gold Cheat nineteen ninety because the Hoosiers didn't
win that game either, because it ended in a tie anyway,
So glad we don't tie in college football anymore. But
Ohio State has been on an absolute tear of the
season guys ten one and one against the spread, including
just last week's eighteen point road win over Michigan in
ann Arbor, and Marco may tell you that that was
one of those spots where Ohio State had circled right
and Ohio State was looking forward to that. Maybe they
spent a lot more time on that game and ensuring
a win than they have in a Big Ten title
game because they haven't played in a Big Ten title
game since the twenty twenty season, making that an extra
game for this team. And I know that coaching staff
spent extra time to prepare. While the Hoosiers, on the
other hand, were a four touchdown favorite over perdue and
probably already started preparing for the Buckeyes. Hey, no problem,
the Buckeyes more talented team. But I want to go
ahead and say Kirk Sinnetti has this one circled and
has for a long time historically in the Big Ten
championship game, the favorite is eight no straight up and
six and two against the spread in the last eight
championship games. But Ohio State is responsible for four of
those wins, Michigan has three, and then of course Oregon
got it last year over State. Five of the buckeyes
last seven games of stayed under the total. And that's
why I think this one is really low. If you
like Ohio State, I think you also like the under.
Indiana coming off another just absolute thrashing, as I mentioned
with Purdue last week scoring fifty six on the road.
Mendoza right now is the Heisman Trophy favorite just slightly.
We'll see if that is a distraction for him in
this one. I'm gonna go with the early money here.
I don't have a big opinion, but I'm gonna go
with the early money and say that I like Indiana.
I think this game could easily end with either team
kicking a game winning field goal sounds funny to say
because we know Kirk Signetti is not really much of
a field goal kicker. But I think this one's going
to be closer than the spread indicates. All right, boys,
well it's gonna be a short show today. As I mentioned,
there's no sandwich games. It's too early to talk about
the bulls, no really barking dogs. I guess if you
want to get into it, maybe my best bet can
be one of those. So we're going to let VR
go first with his best bet with a barking dog
as well, a little dog. If you will tell me
why you like Tulane VR and why people should be
buying it up to three.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And this is another situation where you have two
very close teams as far as power rating wise. I
have Tulane like fifty second. I have North Texas fifty first.
Like these are very close to each other, and when
you look at the rankings college football rankings, it's pretty
much the same thing. You know, you have North Texas twentieth,
Tulane twenty first, so they have it comparable, except they're
not in the top twenty power rating wise. That that's
the key there. Anytime you have a coin flip and
you're able to get plus money, you have to take
it at worst. At worst, I thought Tulane in this
spot was coin flip. And the reason why is how
North Texas has done ats. Forget the x's and o's
everybody at this point, the oance makers have all the
data we have, so trying to find that nugget of
that stat that's going to give you that edge is
very difficult at this time. Instead, what you got to
take advantage of is that inefficient market and that's going
to happen this late in the season based on an
incorrect narrative. That's what we got to get down to
to find value when it comes to playoffs in ball
season because again, the sample size of data as you're
going to get at this time of year, so you're
not really going to find that mistake that they're making.
But here's the key. North Texas has outperformed the betting
market significantly. They're an eleven win football team that's covered
ten of those games. This is a market that continues
to correct itself. On the flip side. Tulane ten win
football team, five hundred ats, so the books have done
a really good job of pricing Tulane, not so much
with North Texas. That's why you're being charged to the
premium on North Texas. There's absolutely no other reason for
that at all, Like nothing in the data, nothing in
the matchup. You have Tulaine coming in off four straight wins,
you have North Texas coming in off six straight wins,
like they're both coming in on good form. Anytime you
get that coin flip, take the plus money Tulane, buy
it up to three, up to about minus one twenty five.
It's not worth the same as it is in the NFL. Otherwise,
two and a half is just fine because again got
to remember variants in college football means each half point
isn't worth as much as it is in the NFL. So,
if anything, this is even a sprinkle job written all
over it. Tulane on the money line beats North Texas
on Saturday. So that's the best bet, all right.
Speaker 1: I told Marco he had to talk about this game
because he lives in Las Vegas. So that's the asterisk, right,
Like I want to talk about this also now I
just say.
Speaker 3: Real quick, I'm sorry, how did you NLV receive a vote?
I saw they received a vote. They're barely in the
top seventy power rating wise seventy and they received a vote.
Speaker 1: It's just ridiculous, listen VR. Just like in politics, people
probably shouldn't be allowed to vote and the I'm sorry,
Like we've saw it where the woman put usf over
plenty of teams and then they got throttled by Miami
Like these these people aren't paying enough attention to actually
be able to insert real votes. Marco, I know that
you are having an opinion on the total, but I'm
going to ask you about the side first as well.
My buddy Mark is holding a ticket for UNLV to
win the Mountain West conference. He texted me this morning, goes,
what do I do? I said, the only way you
can hedge it is Boise State money line your thoughts
on this revenge situation here for the Broncos Again, I
know you like the total, but I gotta get that
question asked for Mark first.
Speaker 2: No problem, I'll get to that question in a second,
but we got to talk about what's going on this
week at wager Talk and for me personally, we still
have the weekend Warrior that's been very popular with everybody.
Gets you Saturday and Sunday all the college in pro
football for forty nine dollars, and if there's a Monday
night play you get that three as well. Me personally,
I've got a fourteen day all access blitz going this week.
Speaker 1: Guys.
Speaker 2: We were number one for the month of November at
wager Talk. Our five percent plays are now forty and sixteen.
We had one last Saturday that won an easy winner
on the TCU game to go over the total. Even
surviving a ninety minute weather delay in that game, we
still got the job done and we cashed a ticket
that was actually given out. At the beginning of the season.
We had a five percent on Utah season win total
over so now forty and sixteen on those plays. But
it's not just the five percent plays, and there will
be a five percent play going this weekend sometime. But
our regular plays have been on fire fifty three and
thirty three the last thirty four days profit of over
fifty five hundred dollars. You can get fourteen days of
all sports normally ninety nine dollars a week for one
thirty nine this week only with we're calling at Marco's
fourteen day all access Blitz sack your man with this one, Kelly,
as far as the game goes, and this is one.
And I can't wait to talk to John Murray and
get the insight of where they came out with this number,
because you know, these two teams played earlier in the season,
and as they always do, Boise State ran roughshow over UNLV.
Now I realize the Boise State quarterback has missed the month,
but he is supposed to be back on Saturday. The
line was thirteen and a half in the last game
when they met here earlier in the season in mid October,
and now we're seeing a line of four. That's one
heck of an adjustment, and it's still on Boise State's field,
so it's not like it's on a neutral. I don't
understand the move. The reason UNLV has trouble against Boise
is BYU can't handle teams that are physical at the
line of scrimmage. That's been their problem over the years.
And when they started the season this year, Dan Mullen
inherited that team that the moo was still the same.
They could score on anybody, but they couldn't stop anybody
but Kelly, if you look at the final four games
for UNLV, and this is why I'm going to the
total in this game and why I'll actually give them
a shot. After giving up thirty one or more in
five of the first eight games, over the last four games,
UNLV has held their opponents to a combined sixty three points.
That's just under sixteen points per game. They've definitely improved
their defense. Offense is there. I think Boise State's gonna
want to try to dominate the game at the line
of scrimmage, and UNLV has improved dramatically. I'm taking this
one under the total. Vegas is telling you the same thing.
The total in the first game was sixty and they
scored eighty six points in that game, and so you
would think this total would be the same or higher.
Speaker 1: It's not.
Speaker 2: It's fifty eight and a half. And that tells me
that the Lions makers are thinking the same way. And
I'd be curious to see if A says anything from
the steam, if his guys jumped on this thing and
had this total under, because that's the way I'm going.
I'll give you UNLV a shot in this game, but
I like the under. I think you're gonna see a
lot more running in this game, and it's going to
chew up clock and we'll take it as this is
a playoff game for the championship of the Mountain West Conference.
I think you're gonna see a much tighter, low scoring
game than you saw in the first meeting there.
Speaker 1: Before you jump in there, please let everybody know where
they can get your steam sheet. Every single week on
wager talk dot com.
Speaker 3: Yeah, every single day I'm putting it out there at
kel and just loading it with nothing but gold that
comes in throughout the day. Like there's a lot of
stuff upwards the last couple of days of forty plus
plays because there's college football, NFL ahead, like days a
week ahead, Tennis was in there. We'll put handball in
there when it comes across NBA, college Basketball, NHL. All
the legit steam that I move for the groups I
work with or that I get from other movers, and
it's the same stuff that I'm looking at that I
then get to handicap and determine where I think it's
worth to still bet more on and the release of subscribers.
So I'm usually choosing from the same group of information
that they're already going to be looking at. So a
lot of good stuff in there, and that's out each
and every day. Now, as far as what Marko was
talking about, here's what sticks out to me about that
total and why I like you're under, because even though
the line's moving up Marco, in my experience doing nothing
but looking at line moves, it's the increments of movement
that sticks out the most. This late in the season,
you already know Boise State UNL is going to get
a ton of over money from the recreational betters. They're
not betting this game under, they're betting it over. Whyse
guys betting send to get to know this. So if
you could get down at the opener and go over,
you're helping that move upwards. So you're already giving the
books the nod that, uh oh, we may get over
money from sharps as well. The public starts coming in
over and you start seeing half point increments. If these
were big moves, you'd see an initial one point one
and a half point move even sometimes like if they
really hit this one, especially talking high profile playoff type
of standalone game, but you didn't see that. Instead, you're
seeing half point movement, half point movement, half point movement. Why,
because the books are looking, are we getting resistance? If
they go up a point point and a half, they
could set themselves up with a big middle from the resistance.
This way, that's not happening, So it tells you it's
not wise guys steaming the shit out of the over.
It's the books seeing more and more risks starting to
pile up incremental half point movements up just in case
the steam under comes in. I would not be surprised
if you saw that happen game day because even looking
at the ticket account right now in the back end,
it's like nothing no under bet, Like the guy that
I'm accessed to this book hasn't booked a single under bet,
So you'll see nothing but public over in that game
for sures on front, and that makes sense.
Speaker 1: You just look at this game, and I don't even
follow them out in West like I used to when
I lived in Vegas. Why would anybody want to take
an under here? It looks so easy to take an over.
Good luck to Mark on that total, since I made
him pick that game just so that I could ask
more follow up questions and listen. I also was going
to include this game, not because I think the ACC
is good, but because I think we have a real
nice by low opportunity here on a seven and five
team that somehow won a tie breaking scenario and is
now headed to the ACC championship. That is Duke plus
three and a half. And if you guys remember these
two teams played less than a month ago, I think
it was like second week in November, and Virginia won
thirty four to seventeen pretty easily. They all gained Duke
by three hundred yards. They held Duke to six point
plus point two six yards per play advantage. Good grief.
I can get through today's show, I promise I can.
One of Duke's touchdowns in that game was an interception
return in the fourth quarter, and that was after Virginia
was just beating the crap out of them thirty one
to three, because it was just ugly. So I think
a lot of people are gonna want to go right
back to the well with Virginia here. The problem is
handicapping Duke's games this year has been really hard. Why
because of turnovers. Duke is in the top twenty five
in both giveaways and takeaways this year. Remember just last
week they were the beneficiary of four wake Forest turnovers.
We're gonna see how this team comes to play in
the ACC Championship game. But I think they're gonna be
playing fun. I think they're gonna be playing loose. Virginia
is the team with all of the pressure from a
power ratings perspective. VR just told you about Virginia, and
I think getting more than a field goal feels very
generate generous in this game. I think it should be
closer to a pick them, So be careful there if
you're laying it with the Cavaliers. Shout out to all
of you guys for hanging out with us here this
entire college football season. VR. Appreciate your insight. Marco, you
are the best. Otherwise Johnny Detroit would fire me because
we would never do any promos on this show. I
should bring this into the script. We'll see you guys
for the NFL show. And if you guys are looking
for that said NFL show, it's right here. Of course,
we're gonna have the Mega show for you guys. Don't forget.
Marco's Deli will be up on Friday until next week
until Bull season. Let's bet on it.