1 00:00:01,560 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 1: The college football championships are upon us. That's right. We're 2 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:07,759 gonna get in the SEC Championship, the Big Ten Championship, 3 00:00:07,759 --> 00:00:10,599 and of course the Big Twelfth Championship, along with some 4 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:29,719 best bets up next on bet on It. Welcome into 5 00:00:29,719 --> 00:00:32,840 bet on It, Kelly Stewart. Here, Yanni the Greek Marco DiAngelo. 6 00:00:33,679 --> 00:00:36,399 All right, guys, this is gonna be a shorter show today, 7 00:00:36,439 --> 00:00:39,079 but we've still got lots of information for you, and 8 00:00:39,119 --> 00:00:42,240 we're gonna go right off the top with Marco DiAngelo. 9 00:00:42,719 --> 00:00:46,079 The Big Twelve Championship is on ABC at twelve pm 10 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:50,000 Easter or number eleven BYU is a huge underdog, as 11 00:00:50,039 --> 00:00:52,119 Marco would like to say, plus thirteen and a half 12 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:54,799 versus number five Texas Tech total fifty and a half 13 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:59,399 right now on the Odds logic screen. Marco, Okay, hand up. 14 00:00:59,479 --> 00:01:01,320 I know nobody ever likes for me to talk about 15 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:03,039 my winning bets. They only like me to talk about 16 00:01:03,079 --> 00:01:05,079 my losing bats in the comment section. But I do 17 00:01:05,239 --> 00:01:09,200 have Texas Tech at twelve to one here, Marco. But 18 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:12,400 all week long on social media, I've been saying, b 19 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:16,079 why you should get into the college football Playoff. I 20 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:19,000 think this team is really solid. This line's a little 21 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,239 bit high. Do I take a little BYU here and 22 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,719 hope for a middle or am I just getting greedy 23 00:01:24,719 --> 00:01:26,560 at this point? Oh? 24 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 2: Kelly, you know me. Every time you ask me a 25 00:01:28,719 --> 00:01:32,480 question about you know, I should I hedge something? I'm 26 00:01:32,519 --> 00:01:35,280 old school. I'm sorry, And it goes back to my 27 00:01:35,359 --> 00:01:38,400 horse racing days where the old adages, and somebody offers 28 00:01:38,439 --> 00:01:42,519 you a good price, funnel horse, take it because a 29 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:46,799 cashier's check never goes laying horses due. In this case, 30 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,519 if you're holding twelve to one, Kelly, why not just 31 00:01:50,599 --> 00:01:54,680 protect you know what your one was, to make it 32 00:01:54,719 --> 00:01:57,519 a free roll, and that free role you could still 33 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:00,840 cash both because they're getting thirteen and a half. I 34 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,319 look at this one and obviously the knee jerk reaction 35 00:02:04,799 --> 00:02:07,519 with what Texas Tech has done. They've already played one 36 00:02:07,599 --> 00:02:10,759 another once during the regular season. They've been a machine 37 00:02:10,759 --> 00:02:13,599 all year. They're eleven and one straight up. But not 38 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:16,199 only are they eleven to one straight up, they're eleven 39 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:19,719 and one against the spread, which means they've exceeded the 40 00:02:19,759 --> 00:02:24,719 markets expectations almost every single week. But with that said, 41 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:27,840 and you alluded to it, you think BYU's in. 42 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:28,639 Speaker 1: I don't. 43 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 2: I think the only way BYU ends up getting in 44 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:34,319 is they they have to win this game Texas Tech. 45 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,199 They're slam duck. Doesn't matter what happens in this game, 46 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:39,719 They're gonna make it. And you go back to that 47 00:02:39,879 --> 00:02:43,919 first game. BYU killed themselves in that game. They had 48 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:47,840 three turnovers which saw them fall behind, and then they 49 00:02:47,879 --> 00:02:51,039 had to abandon the game plan a little bit. They 50 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:53,280 had to pass more than I think they wanted to 51 00:02:53,439 --> 00:02:55,879 in that game. They need to come in here and 52 00:02:56,039 --> 00:02:59,919 establish the run game. And the one thing about BYU 53 00:03:00,319 --> 00:03:03,000 and the other team from the Big twelve that I 54 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,319 was very high on and I cashed my season win 55 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:08,439 total ticket with it was Utah is because they have 56 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:12,479 that brand of football where they play big, physical football. 57 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,319 They have good defenses. And if you look, even though 58 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:19,400 they lost by twenty two points and we're minus three 59 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:23,719 and the turnovers in that game, they held Texas Tech 60 00:03:24,039 --> 00:03:28,360 to their second lowest output of both points in yardage. 61 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,520 I think they got a shot in this game to 62 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:34,800 keep this game close. We always talk about revenge and 63 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:39,039 in season, and you know a lot of people blindly say, oh, hey, 64 00:03:39,199 --> 00:03:41,599 you know, it's hard to beat the same team twice 65 00:03:41,639 --> 00:03:42,639 in the same year. 66 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 1: No, it's not. 67 00:03:43,719 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 2: It happens more often than you think. But the difference 68 00:03:47,319 --> 00:03:49,879 of why I like to look at the dog in 69 00:03:49,919 --> 00:03:52,879 a situation like that is, if you're Texas Tech, what 70 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:56,479 do you change from the last game? You beat them 71 00:03:56,479 --> 00:04:00,599 by twenty two points? But your BYU, if you're going 72 00:04:00,639 --> 00:04:03,479 to the chalkboard, you're coming with a different game plan, 73 00:04:03,879 --> 00:04:07,080 and Texas Tech doesn't know what that is yet. And 74 00:04:07,159 --> 00:04:10,599 so for me, I like BYU plus the thirteen and 75 00:04:10,639 --> 00:04:13,680 a half. And you know what, I don't have a 76 00:04:13,719 --> 00:04:16,720 problem for the show. It's officially BYU plus thirteen and 77 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,240 a half, but because of the adjustments I said at 78 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:22,759 the beginning in Texas Tech not gonna know what they're doing, 79 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,240 I wouldn't have a problem with a first half wager 80 00:04:25,319 --> 00:04:26,680 on BYU as well. 81 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,480 Speaker 1: All right, well, I'm gonna take BYU plus the points 82 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,399 here with Marco DiAngelo. And I'm also going to argue 83 00:04:32,439 --> 00:04:34,319 that the reason why I think BYU should get in 84 00:04:34,399 --> 00:04:37,519 is because I don't think Notre Dame or Miami should 85 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:39,319 get in. So if you guys disagree with me in 86 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,680 the comments, that's why eleven and one BYU deserves to 87 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:46,360 get in two Big twelve teams the ACC. Really, we're 88 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:48,120 gonna get to that at the end of the show. 89 00:04:48,319 --> 00:04:51,399 VR is going to talk about the SEC Championship game 90 00:04:51,759 --> 00:04:54,959 also on ABC four pm Eastern. Number three Georgia is 91 00:04:54,959 --> 00:04:57,519 a two and a half point favorite over number ten 92 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:01,360 Alabama forty seven and a half. VR, I'm gonna talk 93 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:03,519 about my bets again just because the comments second little 94 00:05:03,519 --> 00:05:05,759 bit so much. I got Georgia ten to one to 95 00:05:05,759 --> 00:05:08,879 win the national Championship. I didn't really have a big 96 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:11,199 interest in this game. I think it matters more to 97 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,160 Alabama than it does to george I think Georgia's in 98 00:05:14,319 --> 00:05:17,800 regardless of a win. Here, break down this one for us. 99 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, this is the best time of the college football 100 00:05:20,399 --> 00:05:23,800 season over the next couple weeks when we got these 101 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:29,040 championship week, Bowls, playoffs, Like, there's so many money opportunities, 102 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:31,759 and it's all because of the narratives that have been 103 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:35,279 built throughout the season. And this is the sheet right 104 00:05:35,319 --> 00:05:38,399 here that has the real rankings, the real ratings of 105 00:05:38,439 --> 00:05:40,920 these teams. And here's what I'm gonna talk about real quickly. 106 00:05:41,439 --> 00:05:42,199 Speaker 1: This is legit. 107 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 3: These two teams are pretty much close to where they 108 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:49,000 should be. And here's what I mean. Alabama is ranked 109 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:54,040 tenth all right in the polls right now. Georgia's ranked third. 110 00:05:54,680 --> 00:06:00,800 That's wrong, that's the mistake. Georgia's right below Alabama rating wise, 111 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:05,600 they're they're like coin flip with each other, but of 112 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:09,680 Alabama's above them right now all my power ratings, even 113 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,399 though you look at Georgia at least on paper with 114 00:06:12,439 --> 00:06:18,000 the better record and a comparison when we get this 115 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,759 late in the season, like a lot of these teams 116 00:06:20,759 --> 00:06:23,759 are there because of their record or they made it 117 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:27,879 through their conference, but there's a lot of phonies still around. 118 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:30,240 Like a perfect example. I just got to share this, 119 00:06:30,519 --> 00:06:32,480 like the fact that I went through my rankings for 120 00:06:32,519 --> 00:06:35,439 every single game on this and that I see they 121 00:06:35,439 --> 00:06:38,879 have Virginia's the sixteenth ranked team in the country. They're 122 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:42,759 not even in my top forty power rating wise. Ten 123 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:47,040 State's top ten and Virginia's not top forty. Like that's 124 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:50,560 where there's so much value in college football. Getting back 125 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:54,519 to Alabama Georgia, this is the TV game twelve and 126 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:57,560 two on those now thirty two and ten in college 127 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:01,199 football and bed on it. I'll take that for me. 128 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,000 It's easy I'm on Georgia. Like Kelly, I have a 129 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:07,000 future on Georgia to win the SEC, so I'll be 130 00:07:07,079 --> 00:07:10,639 automatically on Alabama. And here's why I like Alabama in 131 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,439 this spot. Now. The wise guys are on Georgia. They 132 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:15,319 laid the one and a half right away. That's why 133 00:07:15,319 --> 00:07:16,839 you're looking at two and a half and don't be 134 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,600 surprised if it gets the three. That's why I've sat 135 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:22,160 back hoping I don't have to lay juice to get 136 00:07:22,199 --> 00:07:26,399 that three on Alabama because, like I said, power rating wise, 137 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:31,439 I have Georgia right below Alabama. And here's why strength 138 00:07:31,439 --> 00:07:35,360 of schedule. Alabama's had the tougher strength of schedule. Offensively, 139 00:07:35,839 --> 00:07:40,680 Alabama's the better team defensively, they're extremely comparable. So I 140 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:42,920 have the team with the better strength of schedule. I 141 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:45,160 have the team with the better offense and more or 142 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:46,680 less comparable defenses. 143 00:07:46,759 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: I also have the. 144 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 3: Team that already beat Georgia in Georgia earlier in the season. 145 00:07:53,279 --> 00:07:56,480 I already have the team that's owned Georgia, beating them 146 00:07:56,639 --> 00:08:01,360 nine of the last ten and catching three points with Alabama. 147 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:03,839 It's the right side, win or lose. Like this line 148 00:08:03,879 --> 00:08:06,920 should not be two and a half three. This is 149 00:08:06,959 --> 00:08:09,600 a coin flip type of game. There really is no 150 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:12,560 home field advantage to speak of. These two teams know 151 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:15,959 each other extremely well. They know where they're playing. Take 152 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:19,279 the points with Alabama again, not a best bet having 153 00:08:19,319 --> 00:08:21,480 gotten the window with it. But for me, it's an 154 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:25,000 automatic bet because of my future on Georgia. It's an 155 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:28,000 automatic hedge. If I love Georgia, I wouldn't. I'd let 156 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,680 that ride because now I'm getting you know, upwards of 157 00:08:30,759 --> 00:08:33,360 three four to one on a minus two and a 158 00:08:33,399 --> 00:08:35,639 half favorite on a minus you know, one thirty one 159 00:08:35,759 --> 00:08:38,120 forty and getting two three to one. You gotta let 160 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:41,000 that ride. But I don't like Georgia. I do like Alabama. 161 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,200 Speaker 1: Here all right, Iferre, This is a question I got 162 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,480 on the Kelly and Murray podcast this week, But I said, 163 00:08:45,519 --> 00:08:48,200 this isn't a Kellyan Murray question, this is a VR question. 164 00:08:48,759 --> 00:08:51,639 And the question was why not just tease Alabama with 165 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:56,279 this low total in college football? Explain to everybody who 166 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:59,039 hasn't heard or teasing college football rant before why this 167 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:01,039 is a bad idea? 168 00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:03,519 Speaker 3: Well, Number one, you have to find another team to 169 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:06,480 tie them into. That's right, you're putting yourself behind the 170 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:10,480 eight ball to begin with. We also know that mathematically, 171 00:09:10,519 --> 00:09:14,039 it's been proven already that going through the key numbers 172 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,919 of three, six, and seven don't put you in a 173 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:22,679 plus EV category when laying minus one, twenty one, twenty five, 174 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,639 and one thirty like most are doing on teasers. So 175 00:09:26,919 --> 00:09:29,960 I can't make it any simpler than you're placing a 176 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:34,000 negative EV bet and now just hoping to be lucky again. 177 00:09:34,159 --> 00:09:37,759 I've moved steam for twenty thirty years now, and I 178 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:42,120 remember one time, one time only that we've ever teased 179 00:09:42,159 --> 00:09:45,440 college football, and it came down to, like last year 180 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:49,799 or the year before, it just fit their criteria. But 181 00:09:50,039 --> 00:09:53,480 otherwise it's a negative EV play because there's just too 182 00:09:53,519 --> 00:09:57,320 much variance in the scoring compared to the NFL. Even 183 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,360 in the NFL, where our point differential is about ten 184 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:03,039 points off the point spread, it's a lot greater in 185 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,879 college football. So even in NFL, where we say the 186 00:10:05,879 --> 00:10:09,000 lines are extremely tight, it's hard to beat. The average 187 00:10:09,039 --> 00:10:12,600 point spread is ten points off the final score. That's 188 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:14,679 why six points don't help you. Before you say, well, 189 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:16,720 well how about we do ten point teasers, the big 190 00:10:16,759 --> 00:10:20,360 you gotta pay makes that negative V. Also in college football, 191 00:10:20,399 --> 00:10:23,759 the variance is much greater. The difference between the final 192 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:27,840 score and the point spread differential is much greater. Those 193 00:10:27,879 --> 00:10:30,519 six points will not help you in college football. It's 194 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:33,120 like teasing totals. It's just not going to help you. 195 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:35,120 So don't do it if you're not willing to lay 196 00:10:35,159 --> 00:10:37,440 one ten. The teasers not a good bet. 197 00:10:38,759 --> 00:10:40,840 Speaker 1: All right, you heard it from the horse's mouth, and 198 00:10:40,879 --> 00:10:43,200 I actually just wrote the video team. I said, hey, 199 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:45,399 I think we need to do a special Wager Talk 200 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:48,240 Insiders edition of VRS Power Ratings. 201 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:51,399 Speaker 3: We're gonna work, especially with the playoffs. 202 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:54,919 Speaker 1: Yeah, we should do that. So if you guys aren't 203 00:10:54,919 --> 00:10:57,480 an insider right now is the time to join. Two 204 00:10:57,519 --> 00:11:01,879 dollars and ninety nine. Since a month Dapazz, Backslash and 205 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:04,639 Siders get you early access to shows like that on 206 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:07,360 it Marco's Deli, and of course, every once in a 207 00:11:07,399 --> 00:11:10,399 while we let you guys into that premium subscriber only 208 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,799 steam room with VR. Okay, guys, I'm gonna talk about 209 00:11:13,799 --> 00:11:16,320 the Big Ten Championship and this one's gonna be interesting 210 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:20,759 eight pm Eastern on Fox Number two Indiana plus four 211 00:11:20,759 --> 00:11:22,639 and a half. That one's taken some early money at 212 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:25,080 number one, Ohio State. Forty eight and a half is 213 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:27,159 the total. And that's a pretty low total for this 214 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,200 Indiana Hoosiers team. And we'll get to that here in 215 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,360 just a minute. Anybody want to guess win the last 216 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:37,759 time Ohio State didn't beat Indiana. That's a trick question 217 00:11:37,799 --> 00:11:40,919 from the gold Cheat nineteen ninety because the Hoosiers didn't 218 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:44,679 win that game either, because it ended in a tie anyway, 219 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,080 So glad we don't tie in college football anymore. But 220 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,159 Ohio State has been on an absolute tear of the 221 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,399 season guys ten one and one against the spread, including 222 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:57,879 just last week's eighteen point road win over Michigan in 223 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:01,279 ann Arbor, and Marco may tell you that that was 224 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:04,919 one of those spots where Ohio State had circled right 225 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:10,000 and Ohio State was looking forward to that. Maybe they 226 00:12:10,159 --> 00:12:13,759 spent a lot more time on that game and ensuring 227 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:16,440 a win than they have in a Big Ten title 228 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:18,080 game because they haven't played in a Big Ten title 229 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:21,600 game since the twenty twenty season, making that an extra 230 00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:25,120 game for this team. And I know that coaching staff 231 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:29,200 spent extra time to prepare. While the Hoosiers, on the 232 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:32,120 other hand, were a four touchdown favorite over perdue and 233 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:36,200 probably already started preparing for the Buckeyes. Hey, no problem, 234 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:38,840 the Buckeyes more talented team. But I want to go 235 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,519 ahead and say Kirk Sinnetti has this one circled and 236 00:12:41,639 --> 00:12:45,799 has for a long time historically in the Big Ten 237 00:12:45,879 --> 00:12:49,000 championship game, the favorite is eight no straight up and 238 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:51,799 six and two against the spread in the last eight 239 00:12:51,879 --> 00:12:54,960 championship games. But Ohio State is responsible for four of 240 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:57,840 those wins, Michigan has three, and then of course Oregon 241 00:12:58,279 --> 00:13:02,840 got it last year over State. Five of the buckeyes 242 00:13:02,919 --> 00:13:05,320 last seven games of stayed under the total. And that's 243 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:07,399 why I think this one is really low. If you 244 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:10,600 like Ohio State, I think you also like the under. 245 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:15,399 Indiana coming off another just absolute thrashing, as I mentioned 246 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,159 with Purdue last week scoring fifty six on the road. 247 00:13:18,519 --> 00:13:23,320 Mendoza right now is the Heisman Trophy favorite just slightly. 248 00:13:23,879 --> 00:13:26,200 We'll see if that is a distraction for him in 249 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:28,600 this one. I'm gonna go with the early money here. 250 00:13:28,639 --> 00:13:30,440 I don't have a big opinion, but I'm gonna go 251 00:13:30,519 --> 00:13:33,360 with the early money and say that I like Indiana. 252 00:13:33,399 --> 00:13:36,440 I think this game could easily end with either team 253 00:13:36,519 --> 00:13:39,039 kicking a game winning field goal sounds funny to say 254 00:13:39,039 --> 00:13:41,039 because we know Kirk Signetti is not really much of 255 00:13:41,039 --> 00:13:42,799 a field goal kicker. But I think this one's going 256 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:47,840 to be closer than the spread indicates. All right, boys, 257 00:13:47,919 --> 00:13:50,039 well it's gonna be a short show today. As I mentioned, 258 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:53,279 there's no sandwich games. It's too early to talk about 259 00:13:53,279 --> 00:13:57,320 the bulls, no really barking dogs. I guess if you 260 00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,159 want to get into it, maybe my best bet can 261 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:00,519 be one of those. So we're going to let VR 262 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,960 go first with his best bet with a barking dog 263 00:14:04,039 --> 00:14:06,360 as well, a little dog. If you will tell me 264 00:14:06,399 --> 00:14:09,879 why you like Tulane VR and why people should be 265 00:14:09,879 --> 00:14:10,679 buying it up to three. 266 00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, And this is another situation where you have two 267 00:14:18,399 --> 00:14:22,879 very close teams as far as power rating wise. I 268 00:14:22,919 --> 00:14:27,440 have Tulane like fifty second. I have North Texas fifty first. 269 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:30,279 Like these are very close to each other, and when 270 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:35,080 you look at the rankings college football rankings, it's pretty 271 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,600 much the same thing. You know, you have North Texas twentieth, 272 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:43,000 Tulane twenty first, so they have it comparable, except they're 273 00:14:43,039 --> 00:14:46,519 not in the top twenty power rating wise. That that's 274 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:52,000 the key there. Anytime you have a coin flip and 275 00:14:52,039 --> 00:14:53,919 you're able to get plus money, you have to take 276 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:58,039 it at worst. At worst, I thought Tulane in this 277 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:02,879 spot was coin flip. And the reason why is how 278 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:06,240 North Texas has done ats. Forget the x's and o's 279 00:15:06,679 --> 00:15:09,000 everybody at this point, the oance makers have all the 280 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:12,600 data we have, so trying to find that nugget of 281 00:15:12,879 --> 00:15:15,399 that stat that's going to give you that edge is 282 00:15:15,519 --> 00:15:17,720 very difficult at this time. Instead, what you got to 283 00:15:17,759 --> 00:15:21,399 take advantage of is that inefficient market and that's going 284 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:23,919 to happen this late in the season based on an 285 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,080 incorrect narrative. That's what we got to get down to 286 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:29,519 to find value when it comes to playoffs in ball 287 00:15:29,639 --> 00:15:33,440 season because again, the sample size of data as you're 288 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:35,480 going to get at this time of year, so you're 289 00:15:35,519 --> 00:15:38,320 not really going to find that mistake that they're making. 290 00:15:38,919 --> 00:15:42,440 But here's the key. North Texas has outperformed the betting 291 00:15:42,559 --> 00:15:46,440 market significantly. They're an eleven win football team that's covered 292 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:49,639 ten of those games. This is a market that continues 293 00:15:49,679 --> 00:15:53,399 to correct itself. On the flip side. Tulane ten win 294 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:57,039 football team, five hundred ats, so the books have done 295 00:15:57,039 --> 00:16:00,200 a really good job of pricing Tulane, not so much 296 00:16:00,279 --> 00:16:02,679 with North Texas. That's why you're being charged to the 297 00:16:02,679 --> 00:16:07,159 premium on North Texas. There's absolutely no other reason for 298 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,159 that at all, Like nothing in the data, nothing in 299 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,240 the matchup. You have Tulaine coming in off four straight wins, 300 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,600 you have North Texas coming in off six straight wins, 301 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:22,000 like they're both coming in on good form. Anytime you 302 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,120 get that coin flip, take the plus money Tulane, buy 303 00:16:25,159 --> 00:16:28,159 it up to three, up to about minus one twenty five. 304 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:31,679 It's not worth the same as it is in the NFL. Otherwise, 305 00:16:31,919 --> 00:16:35,000 two and a half is just fine because again got 306 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:38,240 to remember variants in college football means each half point 307 00:16:38,279 --> 00:16:40,639 isn't worth as much as it is in the NFL. So, 308 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:43,919 if anything, this is even a sprinkle job written all 309 00:16:43,919 --> 00:16:46,759 over it. Tulane on the money line beats North Texas 310 00:16:46,799 --> 00:16:49,879 on Saturday. So that's the best bet, all right. 311 00:16:49,919 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 1: I told Marco he had to talk about this game 312 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,600 because he lives in Las Vegas. So that's the asterisk, right, 313 00:16:56,679 --> 00:16:58,639 Like I want to talk about this also now I 314 00:16:58,679 --> 00:16:59,159 just say. 315 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:02,159 Speaker 3: Real quick, I'm sorry, how did you NLV receive a vote? 316 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:05,680 I saw they received a vote. They're barely in the 317 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:11,319 top seventy power rating wise seventy and they received a vote. 318 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:15,839 Speaker 1: It's just ridiculous, listen VR. Just like in politics, people 319 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:20,960 probably shouldn't be allowed to vote and the I'm sorry, 320 00:17:21,079 --> 00:17:24,359 Like we've saw it where the woman put usf over 321 00:17:24,599 --> 00:17:27,599 plenty of teams and then they got throttled by Miami 322 00:17:27,759 --> 00:17:31,960 Like these these people aren't paying enough attention to actually 323 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:37,200 be able to insert real votes. Marco, I know that 324 00:17:37,319 --> 00:17:38,960 you are having an opinion on the total, but I'm 325 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:40,960 going to ask you about the side first as well. 326 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:44,240 My buddy Mark is holding a ticket for UNLV to 327 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:46,799 win the Mountain West conference. He texted me this morning, goes, 328 00:17:46,839 --> 00:17:48,799 what do I do? I said, the only way you 329 00:17:48,799 --> 00:17:52,160 can hedge it is Boise State money line your thoughts 330 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:55,799 on this revenge situation here for the Broncos Again, I 331 00:17:55,799 --> 00:17:57,680 know you like the total, but I gotta get that 332 00:17:57,759 --> 00:17:59,240 question asked for Mark first. 333 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:02,759 Speaker 2: No problem, I'll get to that question in a second, 334 00:18:02,799 --> 00:18:05,640 but we got to talk about what's going on this 335 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:09,960 week at wager Talk and for me personally, we still 336 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,880 have the weekend Warrior that's been very popular with everybody. 337 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,200 Gets you Saturday and Sunday all the college in pro 338 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:19,240 football for forty nine dollars, and if there's a Monday 339 00:18:19,319 --> 00:18:23,400 night play you get that three as well. Me personally, 340 00:18:23,759 --> 00:18:27,519 I've got a fourteen day all access blitz going this week. 341 00:18:27,759 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 1: Guys. 342 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,839 Speaker 2: We were number one for the month of November at 343 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:35,799 wager Talk. Our five percent plays are now forty and sixteen. 344 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,519 We had one last Saturday that won an easy winner 345 00:18:38,559 --> 00:18:41,559 on the TCU game to go over the total. Even 346 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:45,440 surviving a ninety minute weather delay in that game, we 347 00:18:45,519 --> 00:18:48,759 still got the job done and we cashed a ticket 348 00:18:48,799 --> 00:18:51,920 that was actually given out. At the beginning of the season. 349 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,960 We had a five percent on Utah season win total 350 00:18:55,079 --> 00:18:58,279 over so now forty and sixteen on those plays. But 351 00:18:58,279 --> 00:19:00,400 it's not just the five percent plays, and there will 352 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:04,160 be a five percent play going this weekend sometime. But 353 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:08,119 our regular plays have been on fire fifty three and 354 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,440 thirty three the last thirty four days profit of over 355 00:19:11,519 --> 00:19:15,599 fifty five hundred dollars. You can get fourteen days of 356 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:19,359 all sports normally ninety nine dollars a week for one 357 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:23,200 thirty nine this week only with we're calling at Marco's 358 00:19:23,279 --> 00:19:27,640 fourteen day all access Blitz sack your man with this one, Kelly, 359 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,160 as far as the game goes, and this is one. 360 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:34,640 And I can't wait to talk to John Murray and 361 00:19:34,759 --> 00:19:37,839 get the insight of where they came out with this number, 362 00:19:38,319 --> 00:19:41,759 because you know, these two teams played earlier in the season, 363 00:19:42,279 --> 00:19:48,079 and as they always do, Boise State ran roughshow over UNLV. 364 00:19:48,519 --> 00:19:52,759 Now I realize the Boise State quarterback has missed the month, 365 00:19:52,839 --> 00:19:56,240 but he is supposed to be back on Saturday. The 366 00:19:56,319 --> 00:19:58,680 line was thirteen and a half in the last game 367 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:02,599 when they met here earlier in the season in mid October, 368 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,160 and now we're seeing a line of four. That's one 369 00:20:06,319 --> 00:20:09,599 heck of an adjustment, and it's still on Boise State's field, 370 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:12,920 so it's not like it's on a neutral. I don't 371 00:20:13,039 --> 00:20:17,640 understand the move. The reason UNLV has trouble against Boise 372 00:20:18,279 --> 00:20:22,720 is BYU can't handle teams that are physical at the 373 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,079 line of scrimmage. That's been their problem over the years. 374 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,559 And when they started the season this year, Dan Mullen 375 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,799 inherited that team that the moo was still the same. 376 00:20:32,839 --> 00:20:35,680 They could score on anybody, but they couldn't stop anybody 377 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,319 but Kelly, if you look at the final four games 378 00:20:38,319 --> 00:20:40,559 for UNLV, and this is why I'm going to the 379 00:20:40,599 --> 00:20:43,279 total in this game and why I'll actually give them 380 00:20:43,279 --> 00:20:46,519 a shot. After giving up thirty one or more in 381 00:20:46,599 --> 00:20:49,799 five of the first eight games, over the last four games, 382 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:55,000 UNLV has held their opponents to a combined sixty three points. 383 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,880 That's just under sixteen points per game. They've definitely improved 384 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:02,960 their defense. Offense is there. I think Boise State's gonna 385 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,279 want to try to dominate the game at the line 386 00:21:05,279 --> 00:21:09,279 of scrimmage, and UNLV has improved dramatically. I'm taking this 387 00:21:09,319 --> 00:21:12,440 one under the total. Vegas is telling you the same thing. 388 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,759 The total in the first game was sixty and they 389 00:21:16,279 --> 00:21:19,119 scored eighty six points in that game, and so you 390 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:22,720 would think this total would be the same or higher. 391 00:21:23,039 --> 00:21:23,400 Speaker 1: It's not. 392 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,839 Speaker 2: It's fifty eight and a half. And that tells me 393 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,440 that the Lions makers are thinking the same way. And 394 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,720 I'd be curious to see if A says anything from 395 00:21:32,759 --> 00:21:35,720 the steam, if his guys jumped on this thing and 396 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,440 had this total under, because that's the way I'm going. 397 00:21:39,839 --> 00:21:41,839 I'll give you UNLV a shot in this game, but 398 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:43,440 I like the under. I think you're gonna see a 399 00:21:43,519 --> 00:21:45,640 lot more running in this game, and it's going to 400 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,319 chew up clock and we'll take it as this is 401 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:53,799 a playoff game for the championship of the Mountain West Conference. 402 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,759 I think you're gonna see a much tighter, low scoring 403 00:21:56,839 --> 00:21:59,000 game than you saw in the first meeting there. 404 00:21:59,079 --> 00:22:01,799 Speaker 1: Before you jump in there, please let everybody know where 405 00:22:01,799 --> 00:22:04,559 they can get your steam sheet. Every single week on 406 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:05,799 wager talk dot com. 407 00:22:06,079 --> 00:22:08,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, every single day I'm putting it out there at 408 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,440 kel and just loading it with nothing but gold that 409 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,599 comes in throughout the day. Like there's a lot of 410 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,480 stuff upwards the last couple of days of forty plus 411 00:22:16,559 --> 00:22:20,839 plays because there's college football, NFL ahead, like days a 412 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:25,119 week ahead, Tennis was in there. We'll put handball in 413 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:29,759 there when it comes across NBA, college Basketball, NHL. All 414 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,880 the legit steam that I move for the groups I 415 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:37,319 work with or that I get from other movers, and 416 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,200 it's the same stuff that I'm looking at that I 417 00:22:39,519 --> 00:22:43,079 then get to handicap and determine where I think it's 418 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,640 worth to still bet more on and the release of subscribers. 419 00:22:46,799 --> 00:22:50,759 So I'm usually choosing from the same group of information 420 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:52,960 that they're already going to be looking at. So a 421 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,559 lot of good stuff in there, and that's out each 422 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,319 and every day. Now, as far as what Marko was 423 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:01,759 talking about, here's what sticks out to me about that 424 00:23:01,839 --> 00:23:04,440 total and why I like you're under, because even though 425 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:08,000 the line's moving up Marco, in my experience doing nothing 426 00:23:08,039 --> 00:23:11,160 but looking at line moves, it's the increments of movement 427 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,759 that sticks out the most. This late in the season, 428 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,319 you already know Boise State UNL is going to get 429 00:23:16,319 --> 00:23:18,759 a ton of over money from the recreational betters. They're 430 00:23:18,759 --> 00:23:21,160 not betting this game under, they're betting it over. Whyse 431 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,240 guys betting send to get to know this. So if 432 00:23:23,279 --> 00:23:26,000 you could get down at the opener and go over, 433 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:30,359 you're helping that move upwards. So you're already giving the 434 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,319 books the nod that, uh oh, we may get over 435 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,200 money from sharps as well. The public starts coming in 436 00:23:36,319 --> 00:23:39,960 over and you start seeing half point increments. If these 437 00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:43,799 were big moves, you'd see an initial one point one 438 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,079 and a half point move even sometimes like if they 439 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:52,640 really hit this one, especially talking high profile playoff type 440 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,000 of standalone game, but you didn't see that. Instead, you're 441 00:23:56,039 --> 00:23:59,160 seeing half point movement, half point movement, half point movement. Why, 442 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:03,200 because the books are looking, are we getting resistance? If 443 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,119 they go up a point point and a half, they 444 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:08,039 could set themselves up with a big middle from the resistance. 445 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,880 This way, that's not happening, So it tells you it's 446 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,119 not wise guys steaming the shit out of the over. 447 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,160 It's the books seeing more and more risks starting to 448 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:20,720 pile up incremental half point movements up just in case 449 00:24:20,759 --> 00:24:23,279 the steam under comes in. I would not be surprised 450 00:24:23,279 --> 00:24:25,960 if you saw that happen game day because even looking 451 00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,160 at the ticket account right now in the back end, 452 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:32,000 it's like nothing no under bet, Like the guy that 453 00:24:32,039 --> 00:24:34,759 I'm accessed to this book hasn't booked a single under bet, 454 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,759 So you'll see nothing but public over in that game 455 00:24:37,799 --> 00:24:39,640 for sures on front, and that makes sense. 456 00:24:40,039 --> 00:24:41,480 Speaker 1: You just look at this game, and I don't even 457 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:42,839 follow them out in West like I used to when 458 00:24:42,839 --> 00:24:45,720 I lived in Vegas. Why would anybody want to take 459 00:24:45,759 --> 00:24:49,400 an under here? It looks so easy to take an over. 460 00:24:49,799 --> 00:24:51,559 Good luck to Mark on that total, since I made 461 00:24:51,599 --> 00:24:53,599 him pick that game just so that I could ask 462 00:24:53,759 --> 00:24:58,240 more follow up questions and listen. I also was going 463 00:24:58,319 --> 00:25:00,440 to include this game, not because I think the ACC 464 00:25:00,519 --> 00:25:01,880 is good, but because I think we have a real 465 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,599 nice by low opportunity here on a seven and five 466 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:09,039 team that somehow won a tie breaking scenario and is 467 00:25:09,079 --> 00:25:12,640 now headed to the ACC championship. That is Duke plus 468 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,599 three and a half. And if you guys remember these 469 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,480 two teams played less than a month ago, I think 470 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,920 it was like second week in November, and Virginia won 471 00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,880 thirty four to seventeen pretty easily. They all gained Duke 472 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,759 by three hundred yards. They held Duke to six point 473 00:25:25,839 --> 00:25:29,920 plus point two six yards per play advantage. Good grief. 474 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,440 I can get through today's show, I promise I can. 475 00:25:32,759 --> 00:25:36,119 One of Duke's touchdowns in that game was an interception 476 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,480 return in the fourth quarter, and that was after Virginia 477 00:25:38,599 --> 00:25:40,559 was just beating the crap out of them thirty one 478 00:25:40,559 --> 00:25:42,880 to three, because it was just ugly. So I think 479 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:44,839 a lot of people are gonna want to go right 480 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,680 back to the well with Virginia here. The problem is 481 00:25:48,519 --> 00:25:51,079 handicapping Duke's games this year has been really hard. Why 482 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,880 because of turnovers. Duke is in the top twenty five 483 00:25:55,960 --> 00:26:00,559 in both giveaways and takeaways this year. Remember just last 484 00:26:00,599 --> 00:26:04,799 week they were the beneficiary of four wake Forest turnovers. 485 00:26:05,519 --> 00:26:08,519 We're gonna see how this team comes to play in 486 00:26:08,559 --> 00:26:10,960 the ACC Championship game. But I think they're gonna be 487 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,039 playing fun. I think they're gonna be playing loose. Virginia 488 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:18,160 is the team with all of the pressure from a 489 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,839 power ratings perspective. VR just told you about Virginia, and 490 00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,680 I think getting more than a field goal feels very 491 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,359 generate generous in this game. I think it should be 492 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,960 closer to a pick them, So be careful there if 493 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:33,759 you're laying it with the Cavaliers. Shout out to all 494 00:26:33,799 --> 00:26:35,400 of you guys for hanging out with us here this 495 00:26:35,599 --> 00:26:39,759 entire college football season. VR. Appreciate your insight. Marco, you 496 00:26:39,799 --> 00:26:42,240 are the best. Otherwise Johnny Detroit would fire me because 497 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,000 we would never do any promos on this show. I 498 00:26:45,039 --> 00:26:48,519 should bring this into the script. We'll see you guys 499 00:26:48,519 --> 00:26:50,720 for the NFL show. And if you guys are looking 500 00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,319 for that said NFL show, it's right here. Of course, 501 00:26:53,319 --> 00:26:55,559 we're gonna have the Mega show for you guys. Don't forget. 502 00:26:55,599 --> 00:26:59,559 Marco's Deli will be up on Friday until next week 503 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,200 until Bull season. Let's bet on it.