Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody. It is time for full
Court Press. It's Monday morning. But Rob and I have
been with you all weekend, just on the other show
with the babysitter Belly Stewart.
Speaker 2: I'm just kidding, you know.
Speaker 1: It's actually I had a I had a blast doing
that show yesterday and with you guys over the weekend.
I do want to bring up though we haven't been
on this show since Friday, and I know Kel likes
to get right into the game, so we got to
just kind of recaut the weekend quick.
Speaker 2: I'll go first.
Speaker 1: Three and five on the weekend for me Rob quite
frustrating because it's one of those weekends where like a
free thrower too in a couple of different games and
I'm probably five and three, you know. Yesterday East Tennessee
State goes to the line. Misses both got stuck with
a bad number and l I U was not anticipating
a wave of Wagner money ninety minutes before the game.
So the bigger takeaway though for me here and I
think the more something like more pertinent than me just
coming on and complaining about being on the wrong end
of a free throw. Here there is the market and
the lines in these games are moving much differently in
my opinion, than they did all season long. It's almost
like there's two way action in every single game there is.
You'll see a move I'll use Merrimac for an example. Yesterday,
You'll see a move with Merrimac early in the day
that's probably respected money, and then you'll see like big
time pushback that like in that game specifically pushed it
all the way past the opening number. I think that's
sort of been the biggest sort of challenge for me,
is gauging where these numbers are going. Now, you and
I have talked about this a ton, It's not going
to change. You know, I'm a handicapper.
Speaker 2: You know, I make all of my own plays.
Speaker 1: There has nothing to do with like the market and
what the market is doing, So I don't really care
about the wave lines are are moving per se. But
you certainly want to get the best number for your bet,
and you know that's something that I'm kind of just
trying to figure out going into this week.
Speaker 2: So talk to me about your weekend as a whole.
Speaker 1: I know you had a good day Saturday, and if
you're experiencing the same thing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we ended up minus one unit for the weekend. Adam.
What I made Saturday wound up giving back Sunday again,
probably due to a couple of unlucky free for it's
more frustrating at the end of game and for me
when you're playing total and it's a foul situation because
the team is scrambling to come back. I speak specifically
about Colgate Lehigh over one forty six and you get
the free throw shooter that you want on the line
multiple times, and you walk away in bonus plus situations
with only one out of two and you want to
you know you're an eighty percent free throw shooter. Three times,
you're gonna go up there and brick one. Any one
of those gets you at least to a push. But
like you say, sometimes that works in your favor. The
night closed out last night really really strong. So opening
to the day was a little bit sluggish, but last
night's close was really strong, including a couple of my
favorite plays on the day. And sometimes you play them
on instinct, Adam, and what you're seeing regardless of where
the market's pushing them. I didn't understand how Oregon State
could be at three and a half point underdog to
San Francisco wound up being true. They started out slow,
but they finished strong win the game outright Idaho. I
talked an awful lot about Colton Mitchell being out, the
starting point guard out for that team for like three games.
He returned a couple of games back and then played
last night and they beat Montana State outright. I happen
to play their team total over sixty nine and a half,
which was pretty easy, but some of my favorite stuff
went late at night. And one more that really again,
it shows you how much difference in this game when
we say shop and get the best number, please do
William and Mary host over one fifty four get to
one fifty three. That game had eighty three points at
halftime Hostra was going crazy. And then you know, I
think if you told me before that game started at
him that Hostro was going to score ninety two. Is
the game that he gets over one fifty five going
to tell you, yeah, where do I sign up? And
Bill and Mary come through so big. Summary here was
almost a wash. Got to watch a lot of basketball
for only one percent for one unit again since December one,
which is now so far in the rear view marriage
January February March, four months later, still the number two
handicaper at wager Talk, winning months ever since then. So
everything's been good. But yesterday a couple that you would
have liked to have your way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I looked that you brought up the instinct portion
because that that's sort of what got me a win yesterday.
You know, my I went one and two specifically on Sunday,
and I just had a I just knew Sienna was
gonna win. I was, I was at the game, I
was at Boardwalk Hall, and and I just like, and
that was a great example. The fair field money just
kept coming in and coming in, and that was where
I was like, Okay, like this is I just have
to punch back at this. Now you're gonna basically give
me Sienna on the money line. I felt like, I
just that that was more of a gut play for me,
and it came through. And that may be sort of
how I approach these next couple of days, because again
I ended up. I was sitting didn't it didn't matter,
but I was sitting there with Merrimack minus four that
went all the way down to two and a half,
and and I again some of the linees have been puzzling,
especially that Long Island move from over the weekend with
Fuller being fully in there, played the whole game and
had an So we're gonna get into it today because
and here's here's the segue, Rob, We're gonna start today
off with the Sun Belt Championship game. If you don't
think the Sun Belt Championship Games a feature game today,
I mean I got news for you right like.
Speaker 2: This is the feature game of the day.
Speaker 1: I know Gonzaga is playing, I know Saint Mary's is
playing whatever, But there's a tournament bit on the line
in the Sunbelt and we have a team that could
win six games in six days. That's Georgia Southern. Who
did it again? Last night, Rob, you and I talked
about Georgia Southern Marshall with Kelly on Sunday's edition of
Full Court Press. I will say I'm not surprised that
Georgia Southern one. I think we both made a case
for the dog during our breakdown. What I am surprised
at is that Georgia Southern one. With the game staying
under I'll throw a number at you, seven for twenty
six from three twenty something percent. I didn't think they
could win without sort of going nuts from three. So
my question to you is this, is this where six
games and six days finally catches up with them, And
even though they won yesterday, did you start to see
some fatigue from this crazy run through the Sun Belt Gauntlet?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think you hit on the point. And in fact,
I haven't written here in my notes that the numbers
Georgia Southern posted offensively. The eighty two is still eighty two,
no matter how they got there, it's still eighty two points.
It's the fifth consecutive game in this tourney that they've
scored eighty plus. However, like you say, the shooting percentages
on both ends came down for this game two point
and three point. There were a couple of games I
remember talking with you and Kelly yesterday or maybe Saturday.
I think gave mentioned Georgia Southern a couple of games back.
They put up fifty two shots from the field, forty
four were threes and they made twenty three of them.
That I think was Friday night. They came back and
they even those numbers out. It wasn't a such a
harsh ratio toward the three, but they shot it well again,
and then yesterday against Marshall, win the game, just don't
shoot it as well. One thing I'll just speak to
from a please for those watching, and I know a
bunch of those who watch us every day, whether live
or after the show's done on YouTube, I know a
lot of you pay attention to what's going on here.
But for those who don't specifically know teams, I think
it's so important to know the teams here. Adam, you
and I have talked all season long on this show,
so hopefully the folks who watch us know. But you
hear and read all over the place, Oh my god,
fourth game in four days, they're going to be tired.
Oh my god, fifth game in five days, you're gonna
be tired. But you have to know Georgia Southern, and
I said it yesterday, it's a team that's built for this.
When you have an Alabama assistant, you're built to go
five games in five days. Your condition that way. So
it's no surprise that Georgia Southern specifically could play five
consecutive days, not tire, win five consecutive games. But in
regards to tonight's game, I do take into account what
you said, because, like I said, it was in my notes,
the shooting percentages came down and the fact that in
their only meeting this year against Troy, and this will
be Troy's second game, Troy sat around for eight days
before they played a game, and then they played Southern
Miss yesterday, a team that had won four straight games,
and they win in this specific meeting first time around.
Troy did everything Georgia Southern does well and they did
it better. They played Georgia Southern's game, They outshot him,
they crushed him on the boards, which is where this
game was decided, but they only won by five points
eighty three seventy eight point being Georgia Southern wasn't able
to use their style to their advantage in this particular matchup.
So at worries me a little bit here. Shooting percentages
came down yesterday. This is a team where you played
them at home. They kind of outdid you in the
ninety four foot wide open court game. The points are
kind of interesting here when you look at how many
points you're going to get with Georgia Southern. I don't know, Adam,
that they'll be thoroughly fatigued again. They're conditioned to play
this way. But you have to take notes. You look
at the number five and a half pushed all the
way up to six and a half and some sevens Now,
people are just going to be like, you know what
Georgia Southern's done. I don't think they're cooked six games
in six days the way they're accustomed to playing, But
I do think Troy does have some advantages. Georgia Southern's
been very lucky the way this bracket fell, if you
ask me, because they've had I think three opponents where
they've played teams that they swept the season series, teams
that couldn't compete with them in that particular style of game.
This team can. I just don't know that I could
lay seven with Troy. I don't know that this one's
gonna get out of hand, but I don't think Georgia
Southern is gonna walk away with the trophy here either.
So decision time, Which way do I want to roll?
Speaker 2: Total?
Speaker 3: Here? One fifty two and a half bit down to
one fifty one and a half someone fifty and a half.
There is no way, there is no way I'd be
on under in a zillion years, No way I'd be
on under and I mentioned yesterday really quick as I
close out, every single Sun Belt Conference game for the
first six days had total one fifty seven or better.
Yesterday was the first game I think we had a game,
the Marshall game got won sixty. But what was the
earlier game I'm trying to look at. Yeah, the earlier
game Troy and Southern miscot one forty eight. That is
the only game in this entire tournament, a week long tournament,
that hasn't hit at least one fifty seven. So there's
no way I'd play under. I could look at over here.
I'm gonna let the market do what they do, though, Adam,
and probably push this down even further and then take
a better number with the total.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: The fascinating thing about the total is is Troy plays slow,
like their tempo is is outside the top three hundred.
But you know that you probably don't necessarily want to
play slow against a team that that might be you know,
battling it a little bit like Listen, I don't think
I don't think the fatigue thing should be moving this
number the way it is, Like, go ask anyone in
that locker room.
Speaker 2: They're gonna play they're playing for.
Speaker 1: An NCAA tournament bid, Like, I don't think anyone's in
there being like man, I wish we didn't have a
game today, Like they're probably ready, they're probably as fired
up as anything. Where where fatigue might come into play
is just straight up like legs on the jumper. I
do think that that seven for twenty six from three
yesterday is is concerning a little bit, Like you know,
Georgia Southern shoots twenty nine free throws in that game yesterday.
If they don't, if they don't have the benefit of
living at the line there, that's uh, you know, maybe
that's a different outcome in that game. It to to
give you the pros Troy side of things. Scott Cross
really good at making adjustments. That's why Troy has been
one of the best teams or arguably the best team
in the Sun Belt all year.
Speaker 2: So it's it's it's a very.
Speaker 1: Interesting game because I think Troy playing their game, it's
a little bit of a slower paced game.
Speaker 2: But then again, like that might not.
Speaker 1: Be their game plan tonight because you obviously want to
take advantage of you don't really want to slow it
down for a team that's now on their six game
in six days, so fascinating game. I guess the one
final point I'll make from a betting standpoint, I don't
think this should be steaming past seven like that. That
to me, I think the fatigue and all of that
stuff was already pretty baked into the opener. And if
you're gonna start getting to seven to seven and a half,
I mean, this is a conference championship game.
Speaker 2: To to think Georgia Southern is just gonna go.
Speaker 1: Quietly, I think I think you you know I would
I would be I wouldn't.
Speaker 2: Be dying to lay a bad number here. Let's put
it that way. If you like Troy, I'm fine with that.
Speaker 1: I see merit to the choice out of the handicap,
but I think you'd want that original number or maybe
hope that it comes back to that number and then
play it at seven.
Speaker 2: Or let's say this gets to seven and a half.
I could only look at the.
Speaker 3: Dog really quick. Yeah, justly. I hardly ever do just
one hundred percent of the shows that we do, Adham.
I'm on YouTube looking at the chat zero times out
of one hundred, but I happen to be in there
today and I just see this comment from Billy Humphrey
remind me not to bet late games. I end up
staying up lating to the night listen. I can't tell
you when we lost that hour Saturday. You want to
cry the next morning when you have to get up
immediately at the crack of dawn. For those of us
in this industry that do this work, you know it
was a five thirty am after I lost the hour
the night before, trying to be ready and prepped for
the show the next day and get my plate in
and whatnot. So I understand it's wild swear to this
day that the East Coast time zone is the worst
time zone to be in for this business. But it's
what it is. And I know you quote John roth
Steve quite a bit. We'll sleep in May. I guess
that's what we'll do. We'll sleep in May listen.
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, how about when the how about when
the mac semi Finally you're at tips off at eight
forty and then you feel the need to stay after
just to wap up g MAC and you find yourself
talking to a bunch of Sienna people and all of
a sudden you're like, oh, I got to drive an
hour back to my sister still and now it's after midnight.
But you know, so that's what we're working with here today.
But wouldn't want it any other way. Let's put it
this way. It was a fun drive. It was a
breeze of an hour. If Cianna lost that game, it
would have been a much longer drive for your boy.
Speaker 2: So well, we're gonna move on.
Speaker 1: Garth has a Garth first of all, appreciate the donation
and shout out to Garth who's been here every day,
you know, contributing his own great stuff. The donations go
to a good cause, so we really appreciate that. Wouldn't
it needed to donate to hit this game because we
were going here anyway, But we very much appreciate that
you do. He says, one in one weekend run goes
to fifteen and five last twenty.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you want to talk about like a documented run.
Speaker 1: The fact that Garth donates and we put it on
the screen every day is like documenting his run because
I can. I mean, you know that that's everyone you
could look at right here, he says. He's going with
East Tennessee State team. Total over sixty nine and a half.
East Tennessee State is fifteen and three to this number
in conference play this season.
Speaker 2: Put it up three times.
Speaker 1: They didn't, they didn't didn't they put up seven, sixty seven,
sixty eight, sixty nine. So yeah, I have a gripe
with East Tennessee State. I was on them yesterday. Minus
the three rob they I don't think by any means
they deserve to cover that game. If you watch the game,
they were We were very, very fortunate to even be
in position to win the game. Thankfully, Western Carolina went
ice cold for the last like eight nine minutes of
that game, but East Tennessee State still went to the
line with a chance to ice it.
Speaker 2: They missed them.
Speaker 1: Both had to dodge a bullet last second shot by
Western Carolina.
Speaker 3: No good.
Speaker 2: They win sixty nine sixty seven.
Speaker 3: My.
Speaker 1: You know, a lot of easy shots missed yesterday for
East Tennessee and then combine that with the fact that
they went eight for twenty three from three. Some of
those easy shots were three pointers that were great looks.
Speaker 2: They just missed them. You know, they missed eight foul shots.
That's not very good.
Speaker 1: Thirteen for twenty one rob from the free throw line,
So you know, Garth likes the team total over. I
don't know that we've really seen a great etsu offensive
performance yet in this tournament. And you know the concern
I guess the concerning part for me here because I
want to like the Bucks too. I mean, you know,
just from the stubbornness factor. I laid the three with
them yesterday. They lose, they win the game, but they
managed to not be able to cover the small number.
I've said for for months now, so bad SoCon this year.
But East Tennessee State, for me, was the best of
this what I consider like bad bunch down year in
a conference that's usually much better, much better than this.
So I want to take East Tennessee State. But I
look at their last four games, I look at how
the offense is dipped them late, and I have my
you know, that is what gives me a little bit
of concern. But that being said, Garth thinks are scoring
seventy at least tonight. I think if East Tennessee State
gets his team total over, they win this game.
Speaker 2: So talk to me about East Tennessee State. Furman. We
got another conference job.
Speaker 1: We got another attorney bid on the line here in
the Silicon.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is interesting. Adam, because when I talked about
instinct yesterday, I played Furman on instinct. You now, I
watched Bob Ritchie's team down the backstretch after they got healthy.
Remember they played so many games without Asa Thomas, without
Cooper Bowser in the lineup, and I was watching one
Furman game I forget who who the opponent was about
six games ago, and the commentator. It's great watching Southern
Conference games because the guys who do the play by
play and the analysis are tuned in to the Southern directly.
They do every game, so you get a little bit
of extra stuff that as much as I handicap and
as much as I said I wouldn't really know, got
a feel for Furman. Played them yesterday. They got behind early,
they came back and won that game, and I had
their team total over seventy seven and a half because
I like the way their offense is going with the
two guys back for now quite a few games. Big
lousey first half, really big second half. I too, have
a great with Etsu. Went on the air with you
and Kelly yesterday made this case for Etsu first half
blown out in the first half. I bet the wrong half, right,
I should have bet second half because second half was
all Etsu. But Furman to me right now is and
I'm speaking only from side right at this moment, Furman's
a difficult opponent. I think. For ETSU two games this year,
East Tennessee wins. Both of those games, one was in overtime,
the most recent was a little less than a month ago,
about three weeks ago, seventy eight to sixty nine East
Tennessee State. To Garth's point about East Tennessee State, I
like the fact that he brings up the number that
he does, because that's kind of the way I gauge
things too. The only thing I'll say to Garth is
I did put one more under the total that they're
expected to get to tonight because they played the Furman
game in overtime, and that game was sixty one in regulation,
So I kind of count that as an under because
they didn't get there in regulation. They did get over
this total with the overtime included. I think in this game,
the East Tennessee State defense is what the discrepancy in defense,
I guess is what I'm trying to say here is
what scares me a little bit about betting Furman. However,
I counter that with your point about etsu you watch
that offense yesterday and you wonder it's not. It wasn't
great all season long. They were carried by their defense,
and it didn't look great yesterday, So Furman could certainly
hang around. I think Furman's just rounding it to form
at this point in time as a group. Adam and
I kind of trust Bob Ritchie, so I think if
I was gonna bet side, i'd be on Furman. I
haven't played the game. I'm not gonna argue Garth off
of over sixty nine and a half. Again, that's a
fairly low number against a not so great Furman defense.
Actually it's been better as of late. It's funny you
have to divide this season into a couple of pieces
because they didn't play with some parts for such a
long while. And I can't disagree with Garth here on
his take, but I do think, you know, I wish
I had enough instinct like I had yesterday to pull
the trigger on Furman because I think they might pull
this thing out.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, talk about Bob Ritchie, I've always thought
he was you know, he's he's always in the If
you were to rank out SoCon coaches. I mean, he's
been there for a while. He's always going to be
near the top of your list coaches in this conference.
The thing with Furman, though, that's impressed me, that that
makes it you know, it makes me less inclined to
play against him, is they've cleaned up some of these
turnover issues that were plaguing them earlier in the year.
You know, this is a team you pull up, you
just pull up the season long numbers, and you know
they're outside the top two hundred. Turned the ball over
eleven point three times per game. That number was a
lot worse going back earlier in the season. They really
had a hard time getting into the offense. The guards
they I don't think they really had early in the
year a true ball handler, and that really hurt them
in some of you know what wasn't really not an
impressive first couple of months they had.
Speaker 2: You know, the.
Speaker 1: You look back now and those losses in the non
conference High Point, Troy, Northern Iowa, and Illinois State are
not bad losses by any means. Those are four pretty
good teams. But the early loss in conference played a
Western Carolina back early January, you know, lost to that
that loss to the Citadel was probably the low point
of their season, losing to the Citadel. But since then,
I do feel like they've they've cleaned it up. And
then you talk about East Tennessee State winning the two
regular season games, that second win for East Tennessee State,
it is right around the time that it feels like
this team peaked a little bit and they haven't really
been the same since. You look at the last four
games for ETSU, you know, lose, they lose to Offer,
they lose to Mercer to close out their regular season,
and I'd argue that the you know, the two games
in the conference tournament so far, Citadel.
Speaker 2: They let them back into the game.
Speaker 1: Yes, they win by seven, but that was certainly not
as convincing of a performance as one would expect. And
then you're just a very disappointing effort from them yesterday.
So on one side, I say, well that I know
they're better than what we saw yesterday. But on the
other side, I say, what, Okay, they're gonna have to
now beat Ferman three times in a season, and yet
the team that's shown up here in this conference tournament
is probably not as good as the team that beat
firm in the first two times, and then you're coming
in and telling me that Furman is better than they
were the first two times they cleave the East Tennessee State.
So uh yeah, I can't. I don't really have much
to disagree with, Garth. I mean, listen, if East Tennessee
State cleans it up a little bit. This is a
team that shoots the free throw very very good.
Speaker 2: They've been I.
Speaker 1: Think top fifty from the foul line all year. So
missing eight file shots is kind of uncharacter wistic of them.
You get some of that cleaned up and a little
bit better of a shooting performance, Like I said, eight
eight for twenty three from three a little bit uncharacteristic
as well. Miss some open shots. The open shots go in, Garth,
you're going to get your team total over. But yeah, Rob,
I'm with you. I think you could make.
Speaker 2: Case for both sides, you know, in this game.
Speaker 3: You know what's interesting is I'd love to use as
part of the handicap. East Tennessee had to use so
much energy to come back from what was a huge
deficit at the end of the first half at him,
and you'd like to say, man, that was a drain
and you could see the crowd the team when they
realized they were going to win that game. Yesday. It
was a huge mountain to climb. They got there. However,
you could counter that by saying Furman almost had to
climb the same mountain. Furman was buried in the first
half and had to make a huge comeback. So you
can't even use that type of argument against one or
the other. It stands for both. I just happened to
think again, gut feel Furman's rounding it the form at
this point in time, and man, I wish I was
getting more than one and a half, I'd be there,
but I'm not.
Speaker 1: And we'll move on in a second. But the final
thing I'll say is there is historical precedence for Furman
rounding in the form and then winning this tournament even
when they're not supposed to. I feel like they've done
it a couple of times where you know, you go back,
just like recent history in this league. Samford, as you know,
with Bucky McMillan, was always like kind of the team
at the top, and there's been other years that Greensboro
has had really good teams, and you can you know,
there's the Chattanooga has had really good teams.
Speaker 2: Has won the regular season in this year.
Speaker 1: But like when the dust settles, it's been and it's
been in Like if you go like the last ten
years or so, dust settles and Furman is right there.
Of course, the year that comes to mind when they
stunned Virginia a couple of years ago in the NCAA tournament.
Speaker 2: But they always seem to.
Speaker 1: Just lurk, right, Rob, and then they come in to
this tournament, play their best ball and leave with the
trophy and buy you finishes it up by saying, let's
be honest, Ets, you had no business winning yesterday. Western
Carolina lost that game more than Ets you won it.
Speaker 2: I would agree.
Speaker 1: So as someone that had an ETSU ticket right there,
I think you are. I think you're probably right about that.
Speaker 2: All right, let's before we move on quick promo. Rob
and I. We've been here all season. We'll be here
with you all March.
Speaker 1: We appreciate you guys showing up, tuning in, interacting with
the show like subscribe on Twitter, and the other way
to support is, of course, head on over to wager Talk.
We've got packages up for the rest of the season.
We've got packages up for three days. Tell you what,
right now, there's no don't don't buy the three day
package on selection Sunday because of course there's no games Monday.
But actually it doesn't matter because wager talk will just
bump you forward a day that there's no games. A
point is Rob, that was a bad way of trying
to make the point that, like, we're gonna have games
pretty much every day. There's plenty of action we're coming
up on, I mean, Championship Week, all the big conference
tournaments in play. I see you guys asking for the
Alabama State two pm tip off, the Swack Tournament gets
under way. We'll get there, but first I want to
go to mad Max and Max appreciate the donation. He
says four and O in his last four picks. I
need to get I need to get back to form.
I need the Garth and the mad Max form here, Rob,
That's how that was my forum up until about Wednesday
or so. And I've been been kind of like battling
through a couple of you know, bad days. But love
to see you guys cashing tickets. Garth says, I like
Saint Mary's today. They have a defensive edge in every category,
biggest disparities in rebounding. Last time they played, they had
fifty one rebounds to Santa Clara's twenty one. Also fifteen
and o at home. Well, I remember that game well, Rob.
Saint Mary's most recent game against Santa Clara. I had
Saint Mary's in that game. That was a no sweat,
blowout winner out in Moraga, California. But Santa Clara was
good in the first meeting. So I'll kick it over
to you because you know you're kind of our resident
WCC West Coast guy here. What do you think West
Coast Conference semi finals tonight? Believe this is the rubber
match between Santa Clara and Saint Mary's.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Boy, as much as I want to love Herbs
and Dick and Santa Clara, it's hard at this price
tag to get there at him for me at least,
first of all, Mad Max. And you know, we'll say
it one time here and definitely when we closed out
the show at the end of the year, I'll say
it again. But the guys in the chat, I mean
the level of knowledge and the level of handicapper that we.
Speaker 1: I don't even need to make notes, Rob, I don't
even need to write the stacks down.
Speaker 3: They just pick it up for me in the chat
because in my notes right here in front of me.
For this game, Saint Mary's plus thirty rebound it was
fifty one twenty one, twenty one points off of offensive rebounds.
Excuse me, twenty one offensive rebounds, fifty eight point three
percent of possessions or shots rebounded. That was the key
to the last game. Mad match made it for me.
It wasn't that way in the first game. And I
don't know if Santa Clara caught Saint Mary's a little
bit by surprise or not, but Santa Clara did win
that game, and it was in very atypical Santa Clara fashion.
Sixty two to fifty four in a Santa Clara game,
Beating Saint Mary's at their own turtle style game just
shouldn't happen. Saint Mary's came back and they won the
high scoring game the second time. They scored eighty six.
I really liked the Saint Mary's team at this point
in time, and I like Santa Clara too. I really
wish they could get an NCAAA bit. I think they're deserving.
But when you run up against Saint Mary's and Gonzaga
in this league at crunch time. I just the one
thing is Santa Clara feasts defensively so much off of
forcing turnovers, and Saint Mary's is so disciplined, they just
don't turn it over enough. If Santa Clara can't get you,
you know, they kind of pick up in that full
court press right away. They pressured the inbounds pass off
of a make, et cetera, et cetera. If they can't
get you there, their half court defense is fairly easy
to pick apart. They shot the ball really really well
last night against Pacific, a slow paced team, but that's
not Saint Mary's. I just don't know that Santa Claric
can shoot it the way they shot it last night
against this team. And I don't know that the way
they play defense is a good enough way to play
it against this particular opponent. Again, we say often styles
make matchups. Pacific is a team that led the WCC
in turnover percentage. They can't handle the ball. I think
when I did my notes for that game last night,
Santa Clara had turned them over like twenty one and
eighteen times in the first two matchups. Yesterday Pacific turned
it over less than ten. So my point here is
that if Santa Clara can't turn you over defensively, Saint
Mary's is gonna get good shots and enough possessions to
probably win and cover this game. And if the board
work goes into I'm not expecting plus thirty again, but
if they get double digit plus and rebounding, I don't know, Adam.
To me, this game should be priced a little bit higher.
I'm with Max. I like Saint Mary's in this game. Again,
watching Santa Clara all season long, they're probably worthy of
a tournament bid. They're as good as a lot of
teams that are going to be in there, but this
matchup doesn't suit them. So for me it would be
Saint Mary's.
Speaker 1: I'll play Devil's advocate for a second. So here's the thing,
like you talk about, that's a crazy rebounding disparity in
the last game forty nine to nineteen. Now Saint Mary's
the top ten rebounding team in the country, So that's
you know, you look at that, and then you look
at their season long rebounding numbers and you're like, oh, okay,
I could see how Saint Mary's would crush someone on
the glass. They've been top ten all season rebounding, but
Santa Clara is not a bad rebounding team. And I'm
going back to that game in my head, and that
was the game where part so part of my reasoning
in that game actually was like ended up being a
little bit flawed because of course I thought Alan Graves
might miss that game. That was the game after he
left the game against San Francisco. I thought there was
a good chance that he might not play, because of
course it was the same road trip.
Speaker 2: You know. Sometimes you see that and it's like if.
Speaker 1: You're on a back to back on the road, you
leave a game, there's a good chance that that guy's
not going to play on the same road trip, you know,
maybe comes back the next week.
Speaker 2: But he played.
Speaker 1: And not only did Allan Graves play in that game,
twenty points six boards played pretty much the whole game.
That really to me, that Saint Mary's win and blowout win,
I think had a lot to do with them being
at home and them coming out hot, getting you know,
had the threes falling early. I believe they hit eleven
in the game, and then just the twenty offensive rebounds
they just demoralized Santa Clara in that game and in
the first half where it was just like, you know,
they everything clicked in that game early for Saint Mary's,
and I feel like they were able to just kind
of ride the wave of being in their home gym
where they're very tough to beat.
Speaker 2: You know, they get up.
Speaker 1: It only was a six point game at halftime, but
you hit a couple of shots early in the second half.
I remember thinking, maybe right around the ten minute mark,
I was already counting my money pretty much with Saint
Mary's and I was laying like four or five in
that game. But they're not in Moraga now, Rob, and
I think you take that out and Santa Clara goes
in with the mindset that like, we've got to be
better here on the glass, I could see this game
being more like the first meeting. Not saying Santa Clara wins,
but like, I think I'd be more surprised if this
is just a runaway than I would be.
Speaker 2: A Santa Clair maybe hangs around and you end up.
Speaker 1: Having you know, you end up right near the number,
or Saint Mary's maybe covers by, you know, hitting a
few free throws, getting a couple stops late, So that's
gonna be a good one. I think I lean the dog,
but you're right, Rob, they are maybe making you pay
a little bit of a tax on that number.
Speaker 3: It is crazy too have this season series, in particular
that each team wins a game that is uncharacteristic. How
does Santa Clara win the sixty two to fifty four
game and how does Saint Mary's win the eighty six
to sixty seven games. It seems like they should have
been swapped. Saint Mary's for what it's worth. In the
game that they lost, shot miserably thirty nine percent from
two point range, eighteen percent from three point range, very
uncharacteristic of them. Neither team shot it good in that game.
We'll see how that one goes. Good. Good tournament out
there at them and like I say, Santa Claia, man,
I like that team, just don't like the particular matchup.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move it along. Quinn appreciate the donation.
Quinn wants to go.
Speaker 2: To the Horizon.
Speaker 1: We've we've we've been criticized before on the show, Rob
for not talking enough Horizon League basketball. I just laugh
at that because someone said at one time, and like
I brought it up every single time.
Speaker 2: That since that that happened.
Speaker 1: But uh, I think we I think we give the
Horizon the same shake we give any of the other leagues.
These guys now are off of campus home floors and
they are in Indianapolis where they'll play the Semis. So
interesting wrinkle in the horizon. They used to be a
campus site tournament. Now they do campus sites through the
quarterfinals and they head over to one of the small
I think it used to be like Farmers or something.
It's it's one of the smaller venues I think. I
don't think they're at like the big arena. I think
it's like a smaller arena in Indianapolis that hosts the
Semis and the finals. So Robert Morris, of course, rob
the team that won this last year, a very different
team than they had last year, but anty tool, fantastic
coach has them right in position to win again. Detroit
has been a team I've really liked all year though
as an underdog. I think it's Mike Montgomery. It's it's
the four, it's the kid he used to be at
Michigan State. Michigan State players, their coach, his name. I
know his last name is Montgomery. It's it's his first
name is escaping me. But the reason I bring that
up is he's a Detroit guy and he basically recruited
all Detroit kids on this team. It's like almost you know,
he's almost using like the you know, stay at home
and play way to try to like not lose kids,
which I thought was like kind of genius.
Speaker 3: If you're like a.
Speaker 1: Low major type program that's probably gonna lose guys anyway,
you know, just just recruit guys from your own city.
And it's been It's absolutely worked to this point because
Detroit mercy man coming from where they were I mean Mike,
I think it was Mike Davis here previously that had
this team at the very bottom of this league. So
really good season so far for Detroit. Rob I liked
them in the underdog role, and they're in the underdog
role here.
Speaker 2: Five and a half points against Robert Morris.
Speaker 1: So how are you seeing this one Horizon League semi
finals Detroit Bobby mo tonight on ESPN two.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I love the way that Quinn brought the old
SDQ well into the chat here twelve and one ats
after a game that goes under interesting trend by Robert Morris.
Noteworthy trend for the Detroit team eight and two against
the spread down the stretch, they caught fire down the
stretch and it continued into the tournament where they went
easily against Milwaukee in the opening round. A couple of
meetings this season, Adam Robert Morris wins them both by
eight by eleven. The first game is interesting, played way
way back on January two, and those particular games that
were played way earlier this season. When I've been going
through these conference turners, I've tended to discard them a
little bit, not necessarily interested in what happened on New
Year's Eve, what happened the first week in January, because
these teams do take a different shape and current form
at this time of year. But it is interesting to
me that Robert Morse actually beat Detroit eighty five seventy
seven in that first game without their top two point guards.
If ever there was a time for Detroit to beat them,
it would be without your two point guards. However, Robert
Morse was good enough to win. Then they were good
enough to bounce back about ten days ago February twenty
fifth and beat Detroit Mercy again by eleven. I talked
about the eight and two hot streak against the spread
that Detroit's been on. One team that stood in the
way was Robert Morrise beat them by eleven. That stuff
I can't ignore. You know, a lot of credit to
Detroit for what they've done down the stretch, but Robert
Morris just seems to be as good at every turn here. Offensively,
season long numbers inside the conference, they're about the same. Defensively,
Robert Morris notably better, second best defensive efficiency team in
this league. That could be where the separation is tonight.
I think Robert Morris just a little bit better at
all facets of the game. Dan Detroit is neutral floor
again a lot of times it probably favors the dog.
Here's the part that bothers me though, again in these
conference tournament games, laying five and a half against the
team that's red hot right now, a little bit bothersome. However,
the other side of me says, you know what, Rob,
ten days ago, they just beat him by eleven. What
are you worried about? They just won this game, this
same exect game, and Detroit was red hot then ten
days ago too, So you get a little bit of
counter argument there. The third piece of that is Robert
Morris was at home. They're not at home here. Can
Detroit shave six point seven points off of that deficit? Maybe?
You never know what happens in these games at them
once they get going here, these conference tournaments turn out
wacky wild. I think Robert Morris is the better team.
Laying up to five and a half somewhat questionable here.
I'm looking at this total of one forty seven and
a half two games this season one thirty five and
the earlier game when Robert Morris played without their top
two point guards one sixty two. But these teams are
a lot different than they were then? Am I ever?
So slight lean here is towards Robert Morris. The one
thing I'm afraid of is the five and a half number.
You know, you're up eight, Detroit sticks a three case closed,
Detroit's a winner.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think. So we have this is we have
some context here. We have a good comparison, right, we
have we We just talked about a game that's in
that five and a half point range with Saint Mary's
and Santa Clara, and then we've got this one. They're
both you know, on a neutral we're now trying to
evaluate these teams on neutral. You know, we had home
matchups earlier in the season, Like the last game we
talked about, I think that number is is better than like,
it is more accurate than this one in the respect
that I almost feel like I almost feel like the
books are you know, kind of they've priced this perfect
in my opinion, because it's just enough to take to
tempt you to take Detroit. But in reality, in reality,
this is probably where Detroit is a little bit outclassed.
You know, last game, Rob you know, the last game
where they advanced to get to this point, that was
a home game at Callahan Hall.
Speaker 2: They had the you know, they had the crowd behind them.
Speaker 1: It was a Milwaukee team that was a little bit
banged up, and you know, that was just it was
just a really good spot for them probably right there.
Like I think that game was lined pretty competitively and
it just turned out to be like a great spot,
good matchup, Milwaukee, a little bit banged up, one of
the better crowds they've had.
Speaker 2: There in a while.
Speaker 1: Now you go to the neutral floor and you're playing
what you know has has been kind of clearly it.
Speaker 2: Wrightes State and.
Speaker 1: Robert Morris have kind of clearly been the two sort
of class of this league so far this year. To me,
when I watch these Horizon teams play, like with the
exception of Green Bay, who looked.
Speaker 2: Like Wright State and Robert Morris at times.
Speaker 1: Like those two have been consistently better basketball teams than
the rest of the Horizon. Just from like the eye test.
I was even a little bit disappointed with Oakland this year.
So you know, as as much as I like what
Detroit has done and they've been feisty as a dog,
I'm kind of with you, Like I think this might
be cheap for Robert Morris. I've got this one closer
to seven. But then again, like, yeah, I think they
priced it great. Like if this, let's put it this way,
if Robert Morris was like minus four or like three
and a half here, I'd love that in this spot.
But you get to five and a half six and
neutral core. I think the books did a good job
of pricing this one in that five five and a
half range. But I too lean Robert Morris. If you
forced me to play this one, I would play Robert Morris,
but I've been more pro Detroit than most people this year,
so I may I may sit out because of that.
But yeah, I kind of with you on your assessment. Here,
all right, let me oh, we just had ope, we
just had that one. Okay, I am okay, here we go.
All right, we got the the super chat window.
Speaker 2: Rob was uh.
Speaker 1: I was trying to figure out. Oh, okay, I have
to I have to unstart the super chat to get
rid of it. All right, all right, we're rolling right along.
Let's go to Let's go to the coastal and well,
here's here's what we'll do, because we'll hit. Let's hit
both coastal games, because I have a feeling one of
these is gonna be my parlay lake, and then I'll
leave the last like seven minutes for you to to
do the parlay.
Speaker 2: So let's talk Coastal semifinals. Here, we'll hit. We'll give
you a little two for one.
Speaker 1: Gard says he doesn't have a play in the game,
but does Campbell Citerella run in the CIA Tourney continue
tonight and then of course semi final number two Hawstrut
and Towson, our top two seeds in this league are out.
Unc W gets bounced Charleston gets blown out yesterday, which
I was a little surprising to me based on the matchup.
So dealer's choice, rob you take whatever one you want,
and I'll take.
Speaker 3: The other one. And I won't take it because I
have a play on it yet, but I'll take it
because I wondered to myself, you know, was thousands sandbagging
us all season long? All of a sudden thousand is
the team that we kind of thought they would be,
or at least the way you've talked about them this
season long, the team that you thought they would be
in your preseason projections. It never came to fruition, But
it's coming to fruition here in the tournament. All of
a sudden thousands. Look, you know, they can make shots,
and if they can make shots, they're tough to beat. However,
Hostra looked pretty darn good too. Speedy Clapton's bunch really
solid yesterday. This another game, Adam, where I'm going to
use the same exact Well, I won't use the same
exact because I do like Robert Morrise that particular matchup.
I don't know that I like Hofstra as much in
this stylistic matchup but I'm afraid of laying four and
a half while I think they're the better. Here's my problem.
I don't know if what thousand's doing is the green
light by sign or if what thousand's doing is a
couple of one offs and hostra wins this game. Haster
has certainly been a little more consistent this season, but again,
the four and a half is the tricky part of
this handicap. I mean, do I take the chance that
what Towsand's doing right now is not as real as
it's been in Lay four and a half and then
find out no Thousand's playing the way they should have
played all season long and they win this game out right?
Too many questions on both sides. For me. I think
it's the more interesting game of the two, for sure,
simply because I don't know what to make and Towsand
could win this tournament and wind up in the NCAA
in March madness and who to thunk it? As we
roll through this season constantly criticizing, you know, the lack
of offense from thousand, Haster has been better in almost
every aspect of the game offensively and defensively than thousands
been this year, So I don't know. To me, Hoster
is the better team, Adam. I'm a little bit scared
cold feet to go ahead and lay it because I
don't know what to make of Twsand at this point
in time.
Speaker 1: All Right, so we will get to we'll do Campbell
mom within a second, because I do have thoughts there.
But I'm gonna use Towson plus the points for the parlay.
That's gonna be my parlay. Leg I talked about it yesterday.
Speaker 2: Hastra.
Speaker 1: You know, Hastra's very jump shot reliant and William and
Mary just fails to expose that. And the thing is
with the way William and Mary plays like they're gonna
give you offense at times.
Speaker 2: And I actually want to take back what I just
said Postra.
Speaker 1: They they're they're jump shot reliant, but they are great
shot makers.
Speaker 2: Okay, like that, if you look at this league, you will.
Speaker 1: Not find a better shot making team than Hastra in
terms of like the ability to like pull up in
people's face.
Speaker 2: Is Cruz Davis is the one.
Speaker 1: That is obviously like the one the first one that
comes to mind, where like they're not always taking the
best shot rob but like they make a lot of
they'll make a fifteen sixteen foot or that like is
maybe not the best shot, but they make them consistently, consistently.
It's why they've been one of the top teams in
this league all year. That being said, they had a
five game losing streak earlier this year where you know,
some of those tough shots weren't falling, and so they
aren't invincible, right, like, they are beatable, and I think
that makes them a little bit more beatable. Towson, in
my opinion, is better equipped to exploit that than William
and Mary because of like Towson's ability. I think they
have a little bit more defensive ability ability than William
and Mary. Towson is a fantastic rebounding team, so you're
if you're haster, you're not gonna get as many of
the like rebound and maybe kick out to a shooter
type scenarios.
Speaker 2: Because that's big for Hostra too.
Speaker 1: How many points does Hoster score where they get a
board and ping it to a guy that nails the three.
Speaker 2: It happens constantly with them.
Speaker 1: That could Hostra thirty six point nine percent this year
from three point land. So you're gonna get a board
and they and they get a board and a quick kickout.
It's pretty much an automatic three for them. Howson, in
my opinion, can limit that a little bit. And then
and then you've got the two best players on the floor,
or two of the best players on the floor, two
of the best players in the conference. The two guys
that I thought were gonna lead Howson to the winning
this league this year, Tyler Tahatta Dylan Williamson. They're veterans
and rob they wake up this morning and there's they
just steamroll Charleston out of the tournament, and there's no
UNC Wilmington and they've got two games keeping them from
the NCAA tournament. I just I love everything about the
spot for Towson. And then you look up and you're
catching four and a half. So that's gonna be my
leg of the parlay. Still a lot of four and
a half's out there, So that's what we're gonna play
it as towsand plus four and a half is gonna
be my parlay league. And before we go to yours,
I guess real quick for me, Campbell, Mom, that's a
trickier matchup. I do give a slight etched to Bambath
I do kind of agree with where the money's going there.
I like the way King Rice as his team playing defense,
and I just think on a neutral like for me,
Monmouth is the team more likely to end up in
the final. I just didn't have as big as a
take on that one. That's why I wanted to do
the two games together. So here's what we'll do, Rob.
I'll give you the Florida add any sort of final
thoughts on Campbell and Monmouth, and then you take it away.
Speaker 2: Tell us what your parlay's gonna be.
Speaker 3: Well, yesterday we discussed on the show with Kelly UNC
Wilmington's just kind of I don't know what it is.
The kryptonite for UNC Wilmington, which was William and Mary
and Campbell this year just could not play these extreme
tempo teams. Yeah they had. Campbell played them extremely tough
both times regular season and then come out and win yesterday.
And of course we know William and Mary had two
great games against North Carolina Wilmingtons, so somewhat again, the
matchup kind of dictated what happened yesterday for Campbell. Does
that happen against Monmouth here? I'm not sure the problem
I would have with Monmouth is I do not trust
them offensively. I don't trust them to be consistent offensively,
and I don't know that they can control pace enough
in this game against Campbell. So there's kind of the
thought process for me, which is always the thought process
with Campbell, is you look at the total and if
you can't find a nage in the total, you don't
play the game at all. To me, in this one,
Campbell's got a legit shot at winning, but I never
trust their defense. Can they get it into a game
where they win based on their offense? Certainly they can.
They showed that yesterday against a team in Wilmington that's
better then Monmouth is. I would think that this is
a pretty good If you ask Campbell give them an
opponent in the semi finals, I would think Monmouth wouldn't
be a bad choice for Campbell. Again, Monmouth just has
the ten and see to go through those spurts where
they don't score, and if they don't score at times,
Campbell can certainly rack up points quickly. DJ Smith, It's
hard for me to get that performance against William and
Mary out of my head. First game this season, you
had like thirty points in the first half or whatever.
It was crazy. And when you see Campbell at their best,
it's hard to not think that they could win this game.
They've beaten Mommouth once already this year, lower scoring game
sixty eight sixty five again, even against the bad Campbell defense.
Monmouth didn't shoot well. That's the problem with them. So
I would probably look Campbell's way in some way, shape
or form, and that one haven't gotten there yet. I
will comment real quick. I said that in the Georgia
Southern Troy game, I would wait around. Let the betters
do what they do with the six game in six days,
fatigue factor. Let them push the total down even further,
get a better number. You see, one forty eight and
a half's out there now, nine yeah, one forty nine
and a half. There was some vibe back immediately on
some of them. Some venues went back to some outlets
went back to one fifty. Let me go really quick here,
I'm staring at the clock six minutes left to what
I'm going to use for the parlay leg. I'll go
to the big sky luck there. Last night with Idaho,
I think I've got a pretty good read on this contest.
A team that Idaho got me on. Just last week
was Eastern Washington had to play on e WU the
game Colton Mitchell didn't play point guard and Idaho just
they made every shot. Eastern Washington did everything wrong. It
ruined what was a I think a seven game win
streak got the time for e WU. They've been the
hottest team in the league by far. Sometimes that type
of loss is good for you heading into the conference tournament.
I think in particular, it will probably be good for
them here. They split this season series with Weaver State.
But where I'm going to go with this game is
the Eastern Washington team total up and over seventy seven
and a half in this one. Washington has scored over
this number in both meetings against Weaver State so far
this season. Weaber State's not going to do much in
the way of limiting possessions in this game. They're a
little bit more up tempo, a little bit more offensive minded.
There's been a lot of movement towards Eastern Washington where
the spread is concerned in this game. BET up from
one and a half to a lot of threes out
there now. So there's some love affair for them in
this game from a side perspective, but for me, team
total just regardless of which way this game goes. And
very quick as I look here, Adam, I'll say it again,
Shop shop shop seventy seven and a half. I'm now
seeing a seventy nine and a half out there for
a team total. Two point variants get the best of
the number. I don't know what we want to choose
to use here for the parlay, but full belief in
Eastern Washington's offense against this team. They've been great the
first two times around against them. To see them get
to ad plus here again. One of the concerns in
these games is your first time or your first tournament
game inside the neutral gym. You know, the sightlines bug,
you do, the rims bug, you et cetera, et cetera.
I don't know that any of that comes into play
here with Eastern Washington. Just because they've been so good
at scoring and so good at putting up points during
the course of this huge run to end the season,
I think they're in a good spot here, Adam. Not
going to try the game itself, even though I would
lean Eastern Washington, but I do think the safer play
here is to just bet them to score over seventy
seven and a half points. If you guys out there
in fairness, because there's a high of seventy nine and
a half and a low of seventy seven and a half,
if you want us to use seventy eight and a
half for this parlay to be fair to everybody betting
out there, we can go that route. If you would
rather just pay the price, pay the big and go
over seventy seven and a half, lay the twenty one cents,
we can do that too.
Speaker 1: We'll go seventy eight and a half for the parlay,
just because I see some people say saying I mean, honestly,
you should probably try to get it to seventy seven
and a half. But I do see some people saying this,
see seventy eight and a half. So I'll put in
seventy eight and a half minus one ten and we'll
go two team or for the parlay today. I have
you know I'm not gonna I'm not gonna go against
you on a big sky total rob, so I don't
need to really add anything to that one. What I
will add is this, if you are if you would
like to attend the MAC Final in Atlantic City tomorrow.
Speaker 2: I will have a ticket for you.
Speaker 3: Let me know.
Speaker 1: It's nine pm. I know, Rob, you've got something going on.
Try to drag you out of the house for that one.
Speaker 3: You know my territory.
Speaker 1: I know it's nine o'clock. The only rule is you
have to root for Sianna. Do not show up and
root for Merrimack in my face.
Speaker 2: That is one rule.
Speaker 1: Would love obviously to meet some of you guys. Very
easy parking at Boardwalk Hall, very easy to get in
and out of. So yeah, I'll just throw it out there,
shoot me a message on x Twitter or whatever we're
calling it these days. But it's at worst, what a
game that's gonna be. We've got one and two in
that conference, a rematch. Both regular season meetings came right
down to the end. So you just have to let
me know if you want to go, and I will
make that happen for you. To recap today's show, we
got the parlay. It's a two teamer today. We got
to walk before we can run, apparently on these parlays.
So let's see if we can just hit a two
team or just to get the juices flow for this week.
Maybe we'll up it to a three teamer later in
the week. We'll certainly be back to three teamers by
the time we're back on with Kelly in Vegas this weekend.
Today's two teamer I am on Towson plus four and
a half. Rob is going to go with the Eastern
Washington team total over seventy eight and a half for
the parlay. That's your two teamer for the day. Bukari says,
Towsand is three and a half. Now, yeah, I feel
like everything we talk about on the show moves as
soon as we talk about it. Rob, I'm gonna put
four and a half in the parlay, but that one
I will attach juice on, because Bukara, you are looking
at one book. There's plenty of fours as far as
this odd screen unless it like just yeah, I mean, okay, now,
you're right, there's Fially it's mostly three and a half,
all right, I'll call it four, but i'll call it
four minus one twenty. For the parlay, we'll call it
four minus one twenty. The name of the game is
just getting you guys info and hopefully you shop around anyway.
Speaker 2: So I'm good with that.
Speaker 1: Tas and four minus one twenty and Eastern Washington team
total over seventy eight and a half. That is your
two teamer for the show. Rob and I will be
back tomorrow morning, same time, same place. Have a great
day everyone, We'll see you guys soon