Speaker 1: Welcome to another episode of the Chicks on the Right
podcast where we talk to our friend and sponsor of
the show, Zach Abraham Bulwark Capital Management, and a lot
happened over the weekend, Zach, And one of the big
things is that Spirit Airlines, famous for its spirit on
flights and on like in and around airports.
Speaker 2: They are donezo.
Speaker 1: And now everyone's talking about the fact that Democrats were like, no,
you can't merge with Jet Blue. It doesn't matter what
kind of financial dire straits you're in, too bad for you.
So what do you think about how this is going
to affect everybody's finances or financial particularly if they plan
to fly.
Speaker 2: We're planning to fly.
Speaker 3: You know, it's to me that this is in so
many ways, I think this is emblematic of a lot
of issues that we have in this country where I
feel like we're dealing with toddlers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well there's that, right, there is that.
Speaker 3: But it's like we keep looking at at these problems
for lack of a better term of like modernity, probably
new problems that exist to just be our changing world
around us and all that kind of stuff, and I
feel like we're applying lenses or tools to these situations
that have worked in the past and aren't are that
aren't really relevant, Meaning this to me is a perfect situation.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: So, like we're worried about anti trade or or monopolistic
things as it relates to airlines, but not tech. You know,
they'd be like, oh, well, you know, we stopped this
merger and that, and you're like, who cares about a merger?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 3: Each one of these big tech companies is a monopoly
in and of themselves, right, Like monopoly has a total
or excuse me, Facebook has a total monopoly on consumer.
Speaker 2: Data, right. Google has a total.
Speaker 3: Monopoly on search, and now they're extrapolating that with AI
and so I look at those. Then I look at
a business like airlines that has so many external pressures
that kind of keep it on track, right, Labor costs, unions, oil,
all that kind of stuff. So to step into the
world we have today and think that you're somehow saving
capitalism by not allowing Jeb Bluid's spirit to merge, that's
just silly, you know what I mean? Like, yeah, just
like I mean, talk about a problem that we don't
need fixed. So I'm not an expert on I haven't
dug into both companies financials. I don't know the arguments
that the government has about monopolistic practices. It's so maybe
there's some merit there, but on the face of it,
it's one of those where you go, well, good, there's
another win for the American people, right, like just just
a waste of time and space, right, I just I
mean generally that's what I think.
Speaker 4: Do you think do you usually tell people, like I
don't know if people ask you this or not about
travel travel insurance, like what like what do you have
any advice for people that are traveling, like say this summer,
because I will be doing that, and like should you
because a lot of these people are unless they were
paid a certain or are they unless they paid for
these tickets a certain way, they're not getting paid back
and man, that would suck.
Speaker 2: That would that way? That would super suck? Right? Yeah?
Speaker 3: Well I yeah, so maybe I never so generally speaking,
I don't ever pay for any of those insurance things.
Speaker 2: You definitely no once you get inside insurance.
Speaker 3: Like if you look at a car dealership, now I'll
use that as an example, they make almost no money
selling cars, right they I don't don't quote me, but
probably sixty to seventy percent of their net revenue is
attributable to their FNI departments, right, financing insurance, right, So,
and the reason why is because it's right they sell
you an extended warranty on a car, most of those
cars don't need it, so that money just falls right
to the bottom line. Right now, I'm not saying warranties
are a bad thing in general, but I'm saying the reason. Look,
anytime somebody's selling you insurance for anything, realize the reason
they're selling it is because the overwhelming percentages that you're
not gonna you're not gonna need it, right, You're not
going to get paid out. And that's why insurance is
one of the most profitable, wonderful businesses in the history
of mankind.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: Warren Buffett built his entire financial empire off the back
of insurance companies for those for those same reasons. Right Why,
Because you're getting capital every month every month, and so, yeah,
it's it's a great business. So generally speaking, when you're
looking at now, does that mean does that mean insurance
is bad? No, I've got plenty of insurance, right, I'm
just saying when it comes to things like that. Generally speaking,
I wouldn't do it if you're you know, if you're
getting super low cost airline tickets in this environment from
a non major national carrier, maybe by the trip insurance,
especially as long as this stuff is going on in
the Middle East, because remember, like United Airlines announced, It's
one of the crazy things about this stock market is
just a remarkable right now because you watch the performance
of airline companies stocks and they haven't been that bad.
Like what's going on in oil markets and jet fuel
right now is going to eviscerate.
Speaker 2: All of their profits.
Speaker 3: So it's they're going to be under They are under
financial stress right now.
Speaker 1: Which means we're all going to be if we travel,
right Yeah, Well, and the prices are going to go Oh.
Speaker 2: They already have. I mean they already have.
Speaker 3: The airline ticket prices have gone way up, and unfortunately,
based on the way things are going in the Middle East,
I don't see that changing anytime soon. So things are
going to get more expensive. Like eventually this will be
over right eventually, but just just based yeah, right, but
just based off where you're at right now. Look, they
it's not comfortable. Things have gotten expensive but I'll just
tell people get ready because you haven't even felt the
feed through yet.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so me yea. Food thoughts are going up and
gas too, Like our kids just wrote us with yesterday.
I mean, I'm in Texas and one of my kids
wrote yesterday and she was like gas went up like
fifty cents at this one gas station that they go to,
and I was like.
Speaker 1: It's even bad here, Like it's even inching up towards
four dollars here, which is crazy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, our area, you know, I fingers crossed.
Speaker 3: I don't understand how it's actually stayed here because if
you look, there's several different physical markets right now where
physical barrels are selling for one to fifty plus. And
if this, if this doesn't end soon, I don't understand
how we can avoid that, just because there's just there's
so much talking nonsense right now.
Speaker 2: The whole situation is really basic.
Speaker 3: Right You've got fifteen to twenty percent global oil production
stuck by on the street.
Speaker 2: There is no possible way to backfill that amount.
Speaker 3: It doesn't matter how much Trump said the other day
something about We're going to double the amount of oil
production we put out over the next twelve months.
Speaker 2: That's not possible, not even close.
Speaker 4: So it just eventually it's just going to trickle down.
It just hasn't trickled yet.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it hasn't fed through yet. You're going to see
it in food prices. You're going to see it in chemicals.
You're going to see it in aluminium. You're going to
see it in your EA. You're going to see it
in sulfur. You're going to see it in fertilizer. It
just it just is what it is. And and everybody's
looking at this like it's an oil price shock.
Speaker 2: It's not an oil price shock. It's an oil supply shock.
Speaker 3: So it's not even that these other things are going
to get more expensive, it's that you're just not going
to be able to get them right.
Speaker 4: Oh my gosh, Okay, I don't want to talk to
you anymore.
Speaker 3: Here's the here's the good news. I told you it
was going to hit the stock market. I still eventually
think it will. But you know, if you've been invested
in tech and AI for the last two weeks, congratulations,
because I've never seen a stock market rally like this
with something like that happening at the same time.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, but that means it's like, you know, it's
a wild world.
Speaker 1: Bag bake, bake, bake. As you've said a million times
to us. You've been like, nothing of about this stock
market makes sense. So even when I see it doing well,
I'm like.
Speaker 2: Isn't doing it real?
Speaker 4: Right? Yeah, he's got to get this figured out or
they've got to get this figured out before July the fourth, y'all.
Speaker 3: Well, and the other thing too, well yeah, and especially
like the other thing is just you know, people think
that I've been begging on Trump and I'm not.
Speaker 2: I'm just sitting there going, guys A, this was really
easy to foresee this issue. Unless you're a data guy.
You look at the data.
Speaker 4: You look at the data.
Speaker 3: Right right, And I'm just sitting there going, ay, like,
here's and here's the problem that I see currently. I
really hope the blockade thing works. I really hope it
brings them to their knees. I don't think it will.
I hope that I'm wrong, But why don't I think
it will? These are people this Ye're learning about a
regime that effectively opted in right. They they continued doing
things that meant that they were going to have economic
sanctions on them.
Speaker 2: For the better part of the last two years.
Speaker 3: And they did that for ideological reasons, right, So they said, Okay,
we will accept making less money, we will accept less
cash flow for ideological reasons. Now you want me to
believe that three weeks of blockade is going to stop them?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 4: What if we say this morning, Iran's gonna Iran?
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I and I just think, like, there I
hear people saying their populace is going to rise up.
Speaker 2: And overthrow the regime. I've been hearing that for forty years.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: So the other thing is that that population you're talking
about is unarmed.
Speaker 2: Right, So it's just and I'm every day it goes on.
I'm sitting there going, what are the freaking midterms going
to look like? Right? And we worry about that too,
that I know, we totally do.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, this has been uplifting and listen, you know
it is a good reminder that people need to get
their financial houses in.
Speaker 2: Order, no matter what.
Speaker 1: And that is why we always like to talk to you,
because then we can tell more people about you and
how can find out more, maybe get a second opinion
about their finance and.
Speaker 2: Get daily update someone daily up. Yeah, step right, tell
us well and then listen to your masterful transitions. Very amazing. Yeah,
absolutely really is.
Speaker 3: It's like it's like, yeah, just sitting at the feet
of a great storyteller.
Speaker 4: She's the Michael Jordan of transitions.
Speaker 2: Yeah, she really is. She is the best I know.
So yeah, so no easy to find it.
Speaker 3: It's our daily podcast has actually been taking off, getting
getting really popular apparently.
Speaker 2: That story.
Speaker 3: Yeah, find that on Know Your Risk podcast, Just search YouTube,
Know Your Risk Podcast, go to Bullwardcapitalmanagement dot com. We
got another roadshow I think coming up in the next
two weeks, and just trying to explain to people, you know,
one of our clients, our clients keep asking, wait a second,
we're up fourteen percent this year, We're up fifteen percent
this year's act. The market's only a five, and we're like, yeah,
that that's a good thing.
Speaker 2: That's what we're trying to do, you know.
Speaker 3: So just explaining to people how we can outperform at
times obviously not all the time, but more importantly, how
we protect against risk and prepare a portfolio for all
the risks out there right now. So yeah, not hard
to find. Bowercapitalmanagement dot com. Zach Aabraham Know Your Risk podcasts,
Not Hard to Love It, Thank You, XACT, Thank You Ladies.
Speaker 2: Investment advisory services offered through Trek financialc and SEC Registered
Investment Advisor.
Speaker 3: The opinions expressed in this programmer for general informational purposes
only and are not intended to provide specific advice or
recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. Any
references to performance of security so it thought to be
materially accurate and actual performance may different.
Speaker 2: Investments involved risk and are not guaranteed. Past performance doesn't
guarantee future results. Trek twenty four three zero eight