Speaker 1: Yeah, so gold is up, and earlier this morning, just
a couple hours ago, it poked its head above twenty
five hundred and ounce, which is a pretty special number,
big psychological number, and I think this is coming from
a lot of places. Really, it's sort of every part
of the economy that you could think of. Quite honestly.
We have central bank gold buying which is accelerating right.
China is the number one importer of gold, is also
the number one producer of gold, and many other central
banks are hoarding it as well.
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Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lott. Well, today the
market's down, gold is up. I haven't looked at the
dollar yet, but I'd venture to say it's probably going
up as well, because gold and the dollar have been
going up together recently. Yes, the dollars the Dixie Index?
Is it one oh four point three five? Hey, we're
on the first day of August. Alan Hibbards with us
Goldsilver dot Com. Allen, Hey, so what do you make
of the current action in the stock market and in
the price of medals?
Speaker 1: Hey, Kerrie, thanks for having me. Yeah, so gold is
up and earlier this morning, just a couple hours ago,
it poked its head above twenty five hundred and ounce,
which is a pretty special number, big psychological number, and
I think this is coming from a lot of places. Really,
it's sort of every part of the economy that you
could think of, quite honestly. We have central bank gold
buying which is accelerating right. China is the number one
importer of gold, is also the number one producer of gold,
and many other central banks are hoarding it as well.
Retail investors are buying it. We've seen a lot of
geopolitical tension, We've seen inflation concerns. We've talked talk of
the FED cutting rates in September. So really just about
everything that could be bullish for gold is bullish for gold.
Speaker 3: And you missed one major thing that I believe will
be the veritable straw that breaks the camels back, and
that is quite simply that China's economy is imploding. That
the real estate market, which is the primary means of
citizens of the wonderful country of PRC People's Republic of China,
that was the primary means that you pretty much had
for putting your excess savings in, and now it's looking
like that's all gone.
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, that's a great point. I mean, for a
lot of years, a lot of people in a lot
of country have had a limited number of options for
protecting their purchasing power. And as those sort of promises,
really most things are most things are credit, even something
like real estate, because you know, you rely on the
government to guarantee it, your property rights and so forth.
As those different forms of credit evaporate, you're sort of
left with things that aren't credit, and that's basically gold
and silver. So slowly we're seeing that that trade happen
all over the world for different reasons.
Speaker 3: All right, Yeah, and you know there still is you
can't really get the straight scoop on how many what
the exact size of the Chinese population is. It appears
there's still over a billion of them there and if
they start buying en mass, what do you think is
going to happen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm expecting the price to go up a lot.
I'm expecting it to continue to go up as it
has been. But I'm also expecting that trend to continue.
And you know what's interesting is I just sat down
the other day to look at the nineteen seventies bull
run in gold and silver, and out of curiosity, I said, okay,
at that blowoff top that ended in nineteen eighty, how
how long did it take for the price of gold
to double right before that peak? And the answer is
forty two days, forty two days, and those are calendar days,
not trading days. So forty two days before the top
of eight hundred and seventy three dollars, forty two days
prior the price of gold was half. So that's a
tremendous move to get at the end of a bull market.
And it, by the way, quadrupled in a year and
a week. A year and a week, So imagine the
price of gold quadrupling in a year and a week.
So if we're talking about twenty five hundred dollars announce
gold now four times that is ten thousand dollars an ounce,
which sounds like an absolute crazy person number, but it
quadrupled in a year and a week at the end
of that bull run. So do I think that's going
to happen? No? Is it possible? Of course, because it
already has happened. So we're talking about big numbers and
buying pressure is coming from everywhere all.
Speaker 3: Over the globe. Yeah, and I think it's even happening
in the US to some extent, don't you think?
Speaker 1: Absolutely, there's no question. And we saw that earlier this
year and in Q four last year with the massive
retail craze going to Costco and Walmart, and of course
at our company, we see a tremendous pickup in volume.
So yeah, a lot of people are buying gold. And
I had some friends reach out to me earlier this
year who said they bought gold and silver for the
first time, which is kind of unprecedented because they're you know, well,
that's why I guess what first time means by definition.
But they're in their forties buying gold for the first time.
You know, they've been investing twenty years and they're just
getting into it now. And I don't think they're alone.
I think I think a lot of people in the
United States are going to be following that batter thinks.
Speaker 3: So huh, all right, so it's not going up to
ten thousand so quick. I mean, I just find that
a little hard to believe. I don't know about you.
I just see it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't see it either. And one thing I
should say is that the the bull market of the
nineteen seventies took ten years to play out. The one
we're currently in has been playing out over about twenty
five years, so it's taking two and a half times longer, roughly.
So I wouldn't expect such a move in one year.
You know, the comparable time frame would be two and
a half years. But even that seems more aggressive that
I think is going to happen. But my point here
isn't that you know such a large number is going
to happen. My point is that big moves are possible
and people don't realize it. So even if gold only
doubles to five thousand and ounce over the next few years,
that's going to catch so many people by surprise. And
there's there's multiple times that gold has done that throughout history,
So you know, big moves are definitely possible, and the
biggest moves of a bull run come at the end.
So it looks like we're shaping up to the final
maybe two to five years of the bull market. So
I'm expecting I'm expecting big.
Speaker 3: Moves, all right. So, hey, are the world's currency is
going to collapse?
Speaker 1: Well, when gold goes up every day, that's the world's
currencies collapsing in slow motion. I mean, that's really what
that is. Like, gold and silver don't change, so if
the price changes, it's because the dollar or the pound
or the yen or whatever you want to measure it,
and that's what's changing. Those things are really getting weaker.
So any fiat currency is just slowly going to zero,
and they go slowly and then they go quickly so
gradually then suddenly, so yeah, they're.
Speaker 3: Sort of and people go bankrupt, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, unfortunately and I mean quickly. Yeah. Yeah. It's not
something to be happy about, but it is inevitable. So
it makes sense to be prepared. Is that simple?
Speaker 3: Hey, Just because the country's going down the tubes and
the economy is going down the tubes, doesn't mean you
have to go down the tubes with it.
Speaker 1: Right, Hey, I agree. I agree completely, all.
Speaker 3: Right, So what kind of what kind of gold do
you think people should buy? I'm not talking you and
I've been buying it for years. I'm talking about lesser
sophisticated Johnny com lately gold bugs. What do you buy?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it makes sense to start with an
allocation to physical precious metals. So maybe that makes sense.
Maybe it makes sense to have something delivered to your house.
And you know, there's a big misconception that, first of all,
it's hard to buy gold, like you have to ride
your horse and buggy down to the you know, gold
dealer or something like that. It's not true. You can
buy gold online just as easy as if you're buying
something from Amazon. It's a couple of clicks, it gets
shipped to your door. And in terms of what to
buy physical investment grade gold and silver, if you live
in the United States, a gold eagle would make a
lot of sense. If you live in Canada, maybe a
gold maple leaf and so on is something that's regionally
close to you wherever you live in the world. So yeah,
and there's another misconception that you need, you know, a
giant safe with lasers in your basement or something like that.
You absolutely don't. You can store a lot of gold,
high value gold in it.
Speaker 3: It doesn't hurt though, doesn't It.
Speaker 1: Doesn't hurt, but you do already have it. Great, but
you certainly don't need to install it. I mean you can.
You can store ten thousand dollars, ten thousand dollars worth
of gold in your pocket, and it's smaller than your
cell phone. It weighs less than your cell phone ten
thousand dollars, so it is very dense. You could put
in your sock drawer, you know, a pretty decent chunk
of values. So you don't need massive security measures obviously.
If you have them, or you want to implement them,
by all means, go for it. And there's third party
storage available where there are guys with guns that specialize
in protecting precious metals and other valuable assets. But yeah,
I would start with physical investment grade gold and silver.
I wouldn't get collector coins, you know, numismatics, I wouldn't
get any I wouldn't buy any ETFs or any paper
gold or promises, nothing like that. So yeah, physical gold
and silver, and if you feel comfortable storing it at home,
do so. If not store it at a trusted third party.
Probably don't put it in a bank safety deposit box
just because if the banks go bankrupt or have a problem,
they get to take your stuff. So I wouldn't do that.
Speaker 3: Now that's total mistake. Never put it in a bank. Well,
you could put a little there, let's put it that way,
but I wouldn't make it your primary storage facility. There's
private safe deposit boxes, which one got rated illegally as
it turned out, by the FBI and they wound up
having to account for it. And we used to have
a number of them in Florida, and the one that
I used to use went out of business. You know,
one of my favorite places alan to store it if
you live near a casino, casino safe deposit box, because
casinos open twenty four to seven and they provide their
customers with a free, complimentary safe deposit box behind the cage. Now,
sometimes these cages do get robbed, like in Vegas, although
they've taken measures now that it's exceedingly rare. But the
one thing they've never tried to do is go behind
the cage the cashier's facility in the casino and start
breaking safe deposit boxes open. I remember one guy he
was up ten million dollars and he kept to all
of his chips in binions safe in their safe deposit box.
Ten million dollars worth of casino chips, which is the
same as cash, right, Yeah, exactly. That's a pretty creative solution.
Speaker 1: I like that. So it feels like an Ocean's eleven
type scenario.
Speaker 3: You know who created it? You know who came up
with that one? Oh me? You're looking at him because
these problems. And I used to keep some gold in
a casino up in Connecticut once upon a time, and
you know, then it just got a little unmanageable. But
you know I always did and it was no big deal.
So and it's free. And the best thing, Alan is
you have twenty four to seven access. There is no
other place in the world other than in your own
home where you were going to have twenty four to
seven access to your box. You know. David Morgan, Yeah,
he liked that one enough that he's recommended it to people.
So me and David go way way back. We've been
friends for the better part of a decade. So if
he liked it, then I know it's good. Yeah, that's awesome, beautiful.
I love the incentives there of the casino too. I
mean they're obviously trying to protect everything. They don't want
a robbery or a loss. So yeah, oh you're never
it's never going to get ripped off there, you know,
it's just not as a virtual impossibility. Yeah, Like if
the whole world collapses and you can't get it, if
you can't get into a casino to donate your money
to their bottom line, then things are really bad and
you're not going to be worrying about your goal. That's
the way I figure it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, and maybe it makes sense to diversify so right,
as a form of defense. So don't put it all
in one casino, you know, pick several different casinos or oh.
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah, you could do that too. I didn't
mention that, but every casine, Like if you're in Vegas,
every casino there and just about has got a safe
deposit box area. And if you're in other places Mississippi, Reno,
even California. You know the Indian casinos in Connecticut. You
got two casinos in Atlantic City, you know all these places.
In Florida, there's numerous casinos here where you can park
your goal. Then Hey, if you're the nervous type, which
I definitely am not embarrassed to say it here, Alan,
you know, you split it up under three or four
of them and you keep some at home just for
safe measure. So yeah, And like I say, casino cages
cashiers get ripped off on occasion. But like in Nevada,
you could kill somebody and get three years in jail,
but if you rob a casino, I'll put you away
for life.
Speaker 1: Wow, I didn't realize that.
Speaker 3: That's uh yeah, that's the greatest defense you can do,
is ripping off a casino the nerve how dare you right?
Speaker 1: Yeah, don't steal from the rich, right, that was Bernie
Meadof's crime.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you know, if you're going to steal, steal
from you know, well, anyway, we don't encourage anybody, that's right.
It's like, there's enough easy ways to make money without
the risk of going to to the slammer that you
don't need to do it. But hey, so what do
you see the time frame for the price of gold
making its play here?
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, we're we're flirting with record highs right now,
so it's kind of hard to say how much longer
the bull run is going to cat continue. I would
guess something like two to five years, but I'm not
overly confident in that range, you know. It's it's sort
of like dependent on what else happens in the economy,
depends on moves by politicians, the outcome of elections, wars,
and so forth. It's going to matter a lot. So
really I'm looking at it from a few different perspectives,
the most important of which is probably the Dow gold ratio.
Just basically, like you know, the Dow and stocks in
general have been like the main trade that you know,
any investor takes for the last few generations. It's like
if you ask someone, hey, you know, I'm saving or
I'm investing for retirement, the follow up question is, oh,
what stocks do you own? Like that's just it's just
assumed that you're going to own stocks like that is
the way you invest. It's what everyone does by default,
and so it doesn't have to be that way. And
so as a result, the last few generations, stocks have
become massively overbought, and I'm looking for capital flow out
of stocks eventually in the coming years and to flow
back into precious metals. Because they've been largely ignored and unloved.
So as that shift happens, and I don't know the timeframe,
it'll take a few years, it might take eight or
ten years. But as that shift happens, that's what I'm
going to shift most of my capital from precious metals
back into stocks and perhaps real estate if appropriate at
the time. So, yeah, I don't know the timeframe, but
that's sort of the general long term swing trade that
I'm making.
Speaker 3: All Right, Well, I totally agree with you, and it's
definitely going to be interesting to see it unfold here. Inevitably,
it's going to right.
Speaker 1: And have ablity, it's going to all right, Hey.
Speaker 3: So we connect with you on goldsilver dot com. Any
other way to connect with you on the web here, Ellen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, goldsilver dot com, or you can go to the
gold Silver YouTube channel.
Speaker 3: All right, cool? Well links in the show notes to
this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Ask you
if you go there, please sign up for a free newsletter.
Over thirty thousand of you have, and hopefully we'll get
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Speaker 1: Thanks Allan, Hey, thank you Carrie.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,