WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.280 --> 00:00:02.839 Hey everyone, Andy here, I just want to put in 2 00:00:02.879 --> 00:00:05.400 a quick plug for the new channel, eyes On. 3 00:00:06.080 --> 00:00:06.280 Now. 4 00:00:06.320 --> 00:00:10.279 Previously we fell under Teamhouse and we shared subscribers, and 5 00:00:10.279 --> 00:00:13.199 what we're doing here is branching off still within the 6 00:00:13.240 --> 00:00:16.679 Teamhouse franchise, but it is important that we build up 7 00:00:16.760 --> 00:00:21.440 steam with our own subscription base. So please cost you nothing, 8 00:00:22.399 --> 00:00:25.000 click on the subscribe button. Thank you. 9 00:00:26.000 --> 00:00:29.160 Hello everyone, welcome to another episode of Iis On. I'm 10 00:00:29.160 --> 00:00:31.600 Andy Moreburn, I'm Jason Lyons. 11 00:00:31.760 --> 00:00:35.560 I'm Dmitriko Tacos. Mick who are you? 12 00:00:35.560 --> 00:00:41.479 You're Mim Moy Yeah you know I didn't that's one 13 00:00:41.479 --> 00:00:44.000 of us. Now, yeah, you're one of the hosts. We're 14 00:00:44.079 --> 00:00:47.600 very delighted to have Mick on as a as a 15 00:00:47.640 --> 00:00:54.240 weekly regular and with a focus on again discussing current affairs. Mick, uh, 16 00:00:54.320 --> 00:00:57.320 you know. I've introduced him many times, but he also 17 00:00:58.159 --> 00:01:01.799 his secondary job when he's not on I On is 18 00:01:01.840 --> 00:01:05.200 to appear on ABC as a He's gonna hate me 19 00:01:05.319 --> 00:01:10.319 saying this, an expert in all things, all things geopolitics, 20 00:01:10.359 --> 00:01:12.840 so we are delighted to have them on. Mike, please 21 00:01:12.879 --> 00:01:17.439 remember that that now is your secondary duty. Here comes 22 00:01:17.480 --> 00:01:22.159 first fus. All right, listen, everyone trumping all news, no 23 00:01:22.280 --> 00:01:26.040 pun intended, is the fact that today is the Marine 24 00:01:26.040 --> 00:01:29.040 Corps birthday, which one is it two hundred and forty 25 00:01:30.439 --> 00:01:33.920 nine forty nine, And since three out of four of 26 00:01:34.000 --> 00:01:38.319 us are marines here, we have to begin with that 27 00:01:38.599 --> 00:01:41.040 and make what does the Marine Corps birthday mean to you? 28 00:01:41.079 --> 00:01:42.519 I mean, does it still mean something? 29 00:01:43.280 --> 00:01:46.159 Oh yeah, absolutely. First of all, happy birthday to you guys, 30 00:01:46.519 --> 00:01:48.760 and happy birthday. And my son is a former Marine, 31 00:01:48.799 --> 00:01:50.840 and my brother in law is a former Marine. And 32 00:01:51.120 --> 00:01:53.359 as you would guess, shipped tone of my friend zero 33 00:01:53.959 --> 00:01:54.480 form Aracin. 34 00:01:54.599 --> 00:01:55.120 So what is it? 35 00:01:55.200 --> 00:01:58.280 I mean, you know, it's you know, it's it's in 36 00:01:58.319 --> 00:02:01.120 a way, it's it means a lot of different things, right, 37 00:02:01.200 --> 00:02:05.400 It's mostly about to be, frank, the brotherhood and sisterhood 38 00:02:05.400 --> 00:02:08.960 that the Marine Corps stands for. Right, So you know, 39 00:02:09.840 --> 00:02:11.960 to me, it's just the time to remember that, right. 40 00:02:12.039 --> 00:02:15.280 It was like most Marines, both when I enlisted and 41 00:02:16.120 --> 00:02:19.479 got commissioned, it was it was a time that I'll 42 00:02:19.479 --> 00:02:22.599 never forget and I certainly don't want to forget. And 43 00:02:22.680 --> 00:02:28.439 it really just means just absolutely committed to a cause 44 00:02:28.520 --> 00:02:31.400 larger than ourselves, right, And there's a lot of groups 45 00:02:31.400 --> 00:02:33.479 like that. But you know, I don't think any group 46 00:02:33.639 --> 00:02:36.240 is more like that than the United States Marine Corps. 47 00:02:36.319 --> 00:02:39.599 So I'm biased as hell, but and I always will be. 48 00:02:39.680 --> 00:02:41.319 But it's just a time to remember that and be 49 00:02:41.400 --> 00:02:42.879 with my fellow Marines. 50 00:02:43.199 --> 00:02:46.759 That's what it's about, Jason, What about you? 51 00:02:48.280 --> 00:02:50.000 So I'd wanted to be a marine since I was 52 00:02:50.039 --> 00:02:54.120 six years old and never lost sight of that. And 53 00:02:54.240 --> 00:02:56.000 even though I got the chance to serve at the 54 00:02:56.039 --> 00:02:58.639 Agency and do some other things, I will save, my 55 00:02:58.680 --> 00:03:01.599 time in the Marine Corps has meant the most to me. 56 00:03:02.919 --> 00:03:05.280 It was started out as like, hey, I really love 57 00:03:05.360 --> 00:03:07.960 their uniforms and I was a little kid. Then their 58 00:03:09.080 --> 00:03:11.840 historic prowess, and then as I got older, it became 59 00:03:12.039 --> 00:03:15.639 I want to do something bigger than myself. And made 60 00:03:15.639 --> 00:03:17.479 some of the best friends I've ever had in my 61 00:03:17.560 --> 00:03:20.599 life along the way, and those things will always stick 62 00:03:20.639 --> 00:03:23.039 with me. It's set the foundation for everything else I 63 00:03:23.080 --> 00:03:23.759 did in my life. 64 00:03:25.039 --> 00:03:28.199 That was beautifully put both of you, and you know, 65 00:03:28.280 --> 00:03:31.400 for me, as a first generation immigrant, I grew up 66 00:03:32.120 --> 00:03:34.039 not really knowing a lot about the Marine Corps. Some 67 00:03:34.120 --> 00:03:37.639 of you may laugh about this, and because it's so 68 00:03:37.840 --> 00:03:40.759 dated now, but I read a book called Battle Cry, 69 00:03:40.879 --> 00:03:44.159 called Leon by a guy named Leon URIs. I highly 70 00:03:44.159 --> 00:03:47.280 recommend it if it's still in print. It's Leon URIs 71 00:03:47.599 --> 00:03:52.280 and enlisted the Marine Corps. He's seventeen, you know, Jewish 72 00:03:52.360 --> 00:03:56.840 kid from I think from New York actually, But anyway, 73 00:03:57.000 --> 00:04:00.360 his the book's a book of fiction, but it's a rape. 74 00:04:00.879 --> 00:04:04.240 It's the best fiction work I've read about the Marine 75 00:04:04.280 --> 00:04:07.000 Corps other than Field so Far. I think both, you know, 76 00:04:07.000 --> 00:04:09.800 a very kind of different approaches. Field so Far, of course, 77 00:04:09.919 --> 00:04:14.120 is James Webritten about Vietnam, which is tremendous book. I 78 00:04:14.159 --> 00:04:16.560 recommend it too. But I read Battle Cry. I must 79 00:04:16.560 --> 00:04:18.160 have read it two or three times. I loved it. 80 00:04:18.199 --> 00:04:22.240 And then I read Goodbye Darkness by William Manchester, which 81 00:04:22.279 --> 00:04:24.720 is another great one, and Field of Fire, and I 82 00:04:25.800 --> 00:04:28.720 was hurt. I knew nothing practically about the Marine Corps. 83 00:04:28.720 --> 00:04:31.079 I had just been rejected by the British Army because 84 00:04:31.120 --> 00:04:36.800 of a rugby injury, and I had US citizenship as 85 00:04:36.800 --> 00:04:40.399 a Jaw national growing up in the UK and Parasitlum 86 00:04:40.480 --> 00:04:42.759 was my first taste of the United States, and I 87 00:04:42.879 --> 00:04:48.160 was there thirty thirty seven years ago today. As a 88 00:04:48.160 --> 00:04:50.439 matter of fact, this is my first Marine Corps birthday 89 00:04:50.439 --> 00:04:53.279 out in the field, and I remember that and that was, 90 00:04:54.120 --> 00:04:56.600 you know, like all of you. I mean, the Marine 91 00:04:56.639 --> 00:05:00.959 Corps birthday subsequently meant a great deal and I loved 92 00:05:01.000 --> 00:05:04.079 the you know, going to the balls and all of that. 93 00:05:04.160 --> 00:05:06.240 But but the two that stand out in my mind 94 00:05:06.240 --> 00:05:08.759 with that initial one in boot camp and just feeling. 95 00:05:09.680 --> 00:05:12.399 It's difficult to describe, but you know, just a sense 96 00:05:12.439 --> 00:05:16.600 of belonging, a real strong sense of belonging. And I 97 00:05:16.639 --> 00:05:21.720 can still remember the talk that our battalion, Sarah, major 98 00:05:21.800 --> 00:05:24.879 guy named Pees gave us and the field. He was 99 00:05:24.920 --> 00:05:28.480 a grunt and you know our paraphrase it, but he said, hey, listen, 100 00:05:29.000 --> 00:05:31.639 you're going to have many Marine Corps birthdays ahead of you, 101 00:05:31.800 --> 00:05:33.600 but I want this one to be special for you. 102 00:05:33.800 --> 00:05:35.639 And they brought out a ca can you believe this? 103 00:05:35.759 --> 00:05:40.279 Nineteen eighty seven in the field and third Battalion, which 104 00:05:40.360 --> 00:05:44.399 was thumping, third which was not renowned for its compassionate gestures, 105 00:05:44.879 --> 00:05:46.879 and that meant a lot. And I remember it and 106 00:05:46.920 --> 00:05:50.399 I remember the feeling. And the other Marine Corps birthday 107 00:05:50.439 --> 00:05:53.680 that stands out of my mind was twenty years ago, 108 00:05:53.720 --> 00:05:59.920 exactly today, Influjah. I was a it was an advice 109 00:06:00.600 --> 00:06:06.439 with that's a horrible word attached to a marine and 110 00:06:06.560 --> 00:06:08.879 I'm sorry. I was attached to a marine battalion which 111 00:06:08.959 --> 00:06:13.040 was First Battalion, Third Marines Lava Dogs, which by coincidence 112 00:06:13.079 --> 00:06:15.959 I subsequently commanded a few years later. But at the 113 00:06:16.000 --> 00:06:19.360 time I was an only major in charge, and I 114 00:06:19.480 --> 00:06:23.040 used that term very loosely of an Iraqi company attached 115 00:06:23.079 --> 00:06:28.360 to the battalion, and I remember the Sarah major whose 116 00:06:28.439 --> 00:06:32.000 name I forget, actually had a formation in Flujah while 117 00:06:32.040 --> 00:06:35.160 we tried to it was interrupted by mortifier and machine guns, 118 00:06:35.199 --> 00:06:40.759 but it but it meant a lot because we had 119 00:06:40.759 --> 00:06:47.879 gone into the city three days earlier at night and 120 00:06:47.920 --> 00:06:52.519 we'd had a rough time on the line of departure. 121 00:06:52.680 --> 00:06:55.839 The suicide bomb it had hit the company I was 122 00:06:55.879 --> 00:06:58.920 attached to and killed I think nine marines, wounded a 123 00:06:59.000 --> 00:07:04.600 number of others Before we went into the battle. We 124 00:07:04.600 --> 00:07:07.240 were pretty shaken up. And you know, you can look 125 00:07:07.240 --> 00:07:10.879 at this up but one three lost in the course 126 00:07:10.879 --> 00:07:15.800 of that deployment, sixty something marines, okay, in a three 127 00:07:15.800 --> 00:07:19.240 month period, but they were part of thirty first few. 128 00:07:19.319 --> 00:07:22.199 They were offloaded into the Battle of Flujah and then 129 00:07:22.240 --> 00:07:26.879 subsequently forty in Nambar Province. I left the battalion after 130 00:07:26.920 --> 00:07:29.279 Flugen went on to mos All, but the battalion had 131 00:07:29.319 --> 00:07:32.560 a really rough ride. And you know, I know that 132 00:07:32.680 --> 00:07:37.360 because we had a Flujah memorial outside my office when 133 00:07:37.360 --> 00:07:41.319 I was battalion commander and there was sixty something dog tags. 134 00:07:41.360 --> 00:07:43.480 I can remember the exact number, but it was over 135 00:07:43.560 --> 00:07:47.319 sixty which is a lot dead, not casualties dead. There's 136 00:07:47.399 --> 00:07:50.600 maybe two three hundred casualties. A third of that battalion 137 00:07:50.639 --> 00:07:55.279 became casualties in what was less than half a deployment 138 00:07:55.439 --> 00:07:59.800 back then. I do believe that's the highest number. I 139 00:07:59.839 --> 00:08:01.920 know two four had a rough time in Ramadi, but 140 00:08:02.199 --> 00:08:05.160 in terms of numbers, I think that that took the record. 141 00:08:06.079 --> 00:08:10.319 So anyway, we were all. I was pretty shaken. For one, 142 00:08:10.360 --> 00:08:13.439 we'd lost one of our advisors the night before. We'd 143 00:08:13.439 --> 00:08:15.639 been shot in the back of the head, which was 144 00:08:15.720 --> 00:08:18.639 rather disturbing at short range, we think by one of 145 00:08:18.639 --> 00:08:21.759 the guys we were advising, which is never good. And 146 00:08:22.439 --> 00:08:24.639 we thought it was bullshit that we were being hauled out. 147 00:08:25.319 --> 00:08:29.720 We're all dirty, unshaven for this formation for the Marine 148 00:08:29.720 --> 00:08:33.639 Corps birthday. But I remember just standing there in those 149 00:08:33.679 --> 00:08:36.879 brief moments before you mortifiers did it coming in and 150 00:08:36.960 --> 00:08:40.919 just feeling, you know, that same sense of belonging, that 151 00:08:40.960 --> 00:08:44.960 feeling coming back. And I can tell you that it 152 00:08:45.039 --> 00:08:50.759 overcame everything. It overcame the tiredness, the fear, the lack 153 00:08:50.799 --> 00:08:53.360 of sleep, the sense of isolation because remember us with 154 00:08:53.440 --> 00:08:57.240 the Rockies, and it kept me going, you know, in 155 00:08:57.240 --> 00:08:58.960 a way that I can't think of anything else can 156 00:08:59.080 --> 00:09:02.519 so I always I always think that you know, there's 157 00:09:02.559 --> 00:09:06.879 a lot of rarah bullshit propaganda. We are great propagandas 158 00:09:06.879 --> 00:09:09.960 and Marine Corps. I think Eleanor Roosevelt said that we 159 00:09:10.039 --> 00:09:12.759 have a better propaganda machine than the KGB, and she 160 00:09:12.840 --> 00:09:15.720 has a point, but it is an all propaganda and 161 00:09:15.759 --> 00:09:18.440 you guys, I think will agree. There is a stamp 162 00:09:18.480 --> 00:09:21.279 on our hearts, as corny though it may sound, that 163 00:09:21.399 --> 00:09:26.279 remains with us the rest of our lives. And fast 164 00:09:26.320 --> 00:09:30.879 forward twenty sixteen, not quite on the rink carp birthday, 165 00:09:30.919 --> 00:09:35.120 but close to it. I'm twenty fifteen, I'm sir, I'm 166 00:09:35.120 --> 00:09:42.440 in Iraq and commanding the Special Operations Task Force. There's 167 00:09:42.440 --> 00:09:46.240 a multinational task Force and General Nella, the Commandant, came 168 00:09:46.279 --> 00:09:49.120 out to visit us and we gave him. You know, 169 00:09:49.159 --> 00:09:52.080 I mean, and this is really an eye open by then. 170 00:09:52.120 --> 00:09:54.559 I've been with SOFT for a few years and I 171 00:09:54.879 --> 00:09:57.799 although my experience was an infantry battalion commander, now it 172 00:09:57.840 --> 00:10:01.399 is with special operations, and difference was huge. I'm not 173 00:10:01.440 --> 00:10:04.000 talking about the caliber of guy, you know, but I'm 174 00:10:04.000 --> 00:10:07.120 talking about just the amount of intelligence and the things 175 00:10:07.159 --> 00:10:09.320 that we could do with that intelligence, you know. And 176 00:10:09.360 --> 00:10:12.080 I was showing the commandant and h and I could 177 00:10:12.080 --> 00:10:15.879 tell you he's really impressed, you know that, and taking notes. 178 00:10:16.600 --> 00:10:18.799 But afterwards he pulled me aside, said, Andy, when you're 179 00:10:18.799 --> 00:10:21.639 coming back to the Marine Corps, and it really hurt me. 180 00:10:21.759 --> 00:10:21.919 You know. 181 00:10:21.960 --> 00:10:24.159 First of all, what's coming from the commandant. Well, first 182 00:10:24.159 --> 00:10:26.360 of all, I thought, well, you tell me. But the 183 00:10:26.440 --> 00:10:28.360 second I want to say, hey, I've never left the 184 00:10:28.360 --> 00:10:30.159 Marine Corps. I've always been a Marine. I may be 185 00:10:30.679 --> 00:10:34.399 working with staff, but but I you know that this 186 00:10:34.559 --> 00:10:36.960 is part of me that's you know, in A and 187 00:10:36.960 --> 00:10:40.080 and and so the sense of that involvement is so 188 00:10:40.159 --> 00:10:42.840 important to us that when we feel perhaps that it's 189 00:10:42.879 --> 00:10:46.080 been questioned, it becomes a very emotional issue. Sorry, that 190 00:10:46.240 --> 00:10:50.720 was an over lengthy answer back to you. 191 00:10:50.840 --> 00:10:55.639 Back on track, yeah, so happy birthday of the Marines. 192 00:10:56.279 --> 00:11:00.360 It's very yeah, many more all right. 193 00:11:00.399 --> 00:11:03.679 I mean the big news obviously is uh Trump elected 194 00:11:04.159 --> 00:11:08.440 president UH, and I think a lot of foreign policies 195 00:11:08.480 --> 00:11:12.039 pretty much everyone's angling and trying to figure. 196 00:11:11.799 --> 00:11:13.000 Out what's going to happen next. 197 00:11:14.120 --> 00:11:17.000 The big thing that stepped uh point, that jumped out 198 00:11:17.000 --> 00:11:18.679 at me this week a couple of days ago was 199 00:11:18.759 --> 00:11:25.519 Qatar booting Hamas officials out of Qatar, and Uh, I know, 200 00:11:25.720 --> 00:11:29.120 I read somewhere where it was they were planning on 201 00:11:29.200 --> 00:11:31.440 doing this right after the latest like round of like 202 00:11:32.120 --> 00:11:36.559 negotiations kind of failed. The timing is interesting where like 203 00:11:36.600 --> 00:11:39.759 they start, you know, to announce it after the you 204 00:11:39.799 --> 00:11:44.320 know election. So yeah, I mean I'm wondering your thoughts 205 00:11:44.399 --> 00:11:46.240 on that, all your guys' thoughts on that. 206 00:11:47.759 --> 00:11:48.720 Well, my question is. 207 00:11:51.000 --> 00:11:53.200 Do we know or do we think that Hamas knew 208 00:11:53.279 --> 00:11:55.919 ahead of time that this was coming, like or was 209 00:11:55.960 --> 00:11:59.120 it you know, hey, you know, let's look at ABC News. 210 00:11:59.120 --> 00:12:00.919 What the hell we're being picked out? You know? 211 00:12:01.080 --> 00:12:02.720 What do you do you think make that they knew 212 00:12:02.720 --> 00:12:03.279 ahead of time? 213 00:12:04.559 --> 00:12:10.679 So I do think because they rejected this very minor 214 00:12:11.039 --> 00:12:14.279 concession of like a four day ceasefire, it was. It 215 00:12:14.360 --> 00:12:17.559 was a very limited duration and it was very limited 216 00:12:17.559 --> 00:12:19.799 in how many hostages would come out. And they was like, 217 00:12:19.840 --> 00:12:21.200 I think it was like four. I might be getting 218 00:12:21.279 --> 00:12:26.039 numbers wrong, but and they said no, that it was 219 00:12:26.080 --> 00:12:29.559 to a point where all the mediators, so the United States, 220 00:12:29.840 --> 00:12:33.559 Guitar Egypt, are like, what the hell are we doing here? Right, 221 00:12:33.639 --> 00:12:38.879 We're launching our you know, head of the CIA every 222 00:12:39.000 --> 00:12:41.159 Tuesday to go talk to these folks, and they're not 223 00:12:41.600 --> 00:12:45.200 even serious at all. Right, So I think, and this 224 00:12:45.240 --> 00:12:48.039 is my speculation I had, I've had nobody tell me that. 225 00:12:50.000 --> 00:12:53.200 I think that was basically the last straw. And then 226 00:12:53.399 --> 00:12:57.480 from there, uh, you know, Cutter being being one of 227 00:12:57.519 --> 00:13:00.120 the main mediators, just like, well, you guys are not 228 00:13:00.240 --> 00:13:02.320 dealing a good face with us. We don't know why 229 00:13:02.320 --> 00:13:05.879 we're giving you this level of protection being in Dola, 230 00:13:06.039 --> 00:13:08.120 which I think does give them protection. I don't think 231 00:13:08.240 --> 00:13:11.679 Israel would say go after these leaders because they're in 232 00:13:12.039 --> 00:13:16.720 dolaw And I think also Quitar is tired tired of 233 00:13:16.759 --> 00:13:20.919 being tied to them, right, so they get criticized for 234 00:13:21.000 --> 00:13:23.639 supporting them, even though is approved by the United States 235 00:13:23.679 --> 00:13:27.480 and Israel to provide financial support in Degaza, and I 236 00:13:27.480 --> 00:13:33.000 think they're probably also looking to kind of remove that perception, 237 00:13:33.720 --> 00:13:37.759 which is not really correct because we again ask them 238 00:13:37.799 --> 00:13:40.159 to do that. But I think that's probably why they 239 00:13:40.159 --> 00:13:42.159 told them to get out. I think we tarbet we 240 00:13:42.279 --> 00:13:44.480 the US said they need to get out. 241 00:13:45.159 --> 00:13:47.879 So where to now make who do you think they're 242 00:13:47.879 --> 00:13:48.919 going to set up shop? 243 00:13:50.039 --> 00:13:53.120 Well, the places have been named Turkey. I don't think 244 00:13:53.120 --> 00:13:54.679 the United States would be good with that. Obviously, in 245 00:13:54.720 --> 00:13:59.759 NATO Ala, it's a good question, you know, where do 246 00:13:59.799 --> 00:14:00.879 they are they going to end up? 247 00:14:00.919 --> 00:14:01.519 Going? To Iran? 248 00:14:03.440 --> 00:14:07.120 That's probably the likely of course they realize that doesn't 249 00:14:07.159 --> 00:14:11.600 make them necessarily safe if you look at Ishia, But 250 00:14:12.000 --> 00:14:14.240 I don't know many other countries that would want to 251 00:14:14.399 --> 00:14:18.919 take them unless there was general approval that these folks 252 00:14:19.039 --> 00:14:22.480 need to go somewhere and they're requested to do that. 253 00:14:22.600 --> 00:14:25.000 If I was a country that was being considered, I'd 254 00:14:25.000 --> 00:14:29.159 certainly want top cover from folks, and I'd also want 255 00:14:29.159 --> 00:14:32.039 to know from Israel that I'm not going to worry about, 256 00:14:32.240 --> 00:14:37.039 you know, an assassination in my country. Right So there's 257 00:14:37.080 --> 00:14:39.960 a lot of issues with these individuals in at the 258 00:14:40.039 --> 00:14:42.639 end of the day, they're terrorists. They were just happened 259 00:14:42.639 --> 00:14:45.759 to be the ones doing the mediation, and unfortunately, when 260 00:14:45.799 --> 00:14:47.600 you have a situation like this, you have to deal 261 00:14:47.639 --> 00:14:49.879 with them. But if they're not going to be even 262 00:14:49.919 --> 00:14:55.759 close to an honest broker in these negotiations, then you know, 263 00:14:55.799 --> 00:14:58.320 you make your choices and you deal with the consequences. 264 00:14:58.360 --> 00:15:01.639 And so I think it's I think it's indicative of 265 00:15:01.720 --> 00:15:05.720 how those Eastfire negotiations went. And I although I agree 266 00:15:05.759 --> 00:15:08.039 with the DA, I think this happened before the election 267 00:15:09.000 --> 00:15:11.879 and we'll talk about it. But the incoming administration, if 268 00:15:11.879 --> 00:15:14.759 they're going to be hawkish anywhere, it's going to be 269 00:15:14.759 --> 00:15:17.600 on or on, and I think that's one of the 270 00:15:17.639 --> 00:15:22.679 things that's factoring into Iran's response or lack thereof, against 271 00:15:22.720 --> 00:15:24.360 Israel that's going on right now. 272 00:15:25.679 --> 00:15:29.720 Yeah, I saw in twitter Land that one of the 273 00:15:29.759 --> 00:15:34.440 members of the Hamas polyp Euro who was previously and 274 00:15:34.519 --> 00:15:36.919 kind of still is based and kind of showed up 275 00:15:36.960 --> 00:15:40.759 in Mauritania of all places. You know, it didn't try 276 00:15:40.759 --> 00:15:44.960 and disguise his presence there, but it did speak to 277 00:15:45.000 --> 00:15:49.360 a group of local journalists about Mauritania being a you know, 278 00:15:49.480 --> 00:15:52.919 a supporter and friend, et cetera. Et cetera. I mean, 279 00:15:52.919 --> 00:15:56.600 I'm not obviously there are people drawing conclusions from that. 280 00:15:56.679 --> 00:16:01.600 Perhaps again wouldn't be I mean, it's like it's like 281 00:16:01.840 --> 00:16:05.480 giving a home to, you know, someone to a plague patient. 282 00:16:07.039 --> 00:16:10.240 It may seem like a good idea at the time, compassionate, 283 00:16:10.320 --> 00:16:13.039 but there's more to lose for any country, as you 284 00:16:13.080 --> 00:16:16.960 point out. But on the topic Iran, I think that's 285 00:16:16.960 --> 00:16:21.799 a great way to start about. You know, we we 286 00:16:22.440 --> 00:16:26.840 have so far avoided speculation about the administration, the new 287 00:16:26.960 --> 00:16:29.320 you know, the new administration's policies. But I think it's 288 00:16:29.320 --> 00:16:34.320 a good topic of discussion to start with Iran. You know, what, 289 00:16:34.159 --> 00:16:35.639 what are your feelings, what are your. 290 00:16:35.519 --> 00:16:39.440 Thoughts name So, obviously, when I was at the Pentagon, 291 00:16:39.519 --> 00:16:45.159 we withdrew from the jcp AWA. The Pentagon collectively was 292 00:16:45.200 --> 00:16:50.440 not entirely with that idea, and I think it's pretty 293 00:16:50.440 --> 00:16:53.240 widely known. Not that it was a good agreement. It 294 00:16:53.279 --> 00:16:56.960 wasn't a very good agreement, but no agreements like that are, 295 00:16:57.200 --> 00:17:02.200 you know, because you're dealing with such a adversary. But 296 00:17:02.320 --> 00:17:06.119 the issue was how are we going to really try 297 00:17:06.160 --> 00:17:08.279 to keep them from going toward a nuclear weapon if 298 00:17:08.279 --> 00:17:10.079 we're not in the agreement that kept them from going 299 00:17:10.079 --> 00:17:13.119 toward a nuclear weapon the big issue. 300 00:17:13.079 --> 00:17:17.720 At least a channel of communication that we don't have now. 301 00:17:18.400 --> 00:17:21.759 Right, And it did give them incentive, incentivize them to 302 00:17:21.839 --> 00:17:24.799 be more open in us ensuring that they're not going 303 00:17:24.839 --> 00:17:26.839 for newgrop because you know, trust would verify you. 304 00:17:27.240 --> 00:17:27.400 Right. 305 00:17:29.319 --> 00:17:32.000 The idea was that the agreement did not address the 306 00:17:32.079 --> 00:17:35.240 line activities that they were doing with the proxy forces, 307 00:17:35.480 --> 00:17:39.519 which is obviously something they never gave up. The criticism 308 00:17:39.599 --> 00:17:44.400 of getting out is the malign activities went up exponentially, right. 309 00:17:45.200 --> 00:17:48.359 The positive I would say is that it did limit 310 00:17:48.920 --> 00:17:53.240 the resources that the IRGC had to do the Malian activity, 311 00:17:53.359 --> 00:17:59.279 So it was a maximum pressure campaign. Significant financial restriction 312 00:17:59.400 --> 00:18:02.720 sanctions were placed on him, and it did cut down 313 00:18:02.759 --> 00:18:06.559 the actual resources that were available for I think that 314 00:18:06.680 --> 00:18:10.400 is a positive of the of the Trump administration's first 315 00:18:10.400 --> 00:18:16.200 ones policy toward Iran. They were also pretty hawkish, uh 316 00:18:16.400 --> 00:18:21.559 toward Iran. Brian Hook for inside policy. Folks might know 317 00:18:21.640 --> 00:18:23.960 him like me. I know him pretty well. He is 318 00:18:24.000 --> 00:18:27.119 in charge of the transition right now for the Trump 319 00:18:27.160 --> 00:18:29.799 team and the State Department. He was he was the 320 00:18:29.880 --> 00:18:35.920 special envoy for Iran when I was there, so he's 321 00:18:35.960 --> 00:18:39.039 a pretty hawkish on that, so I think that is 322 00:18:39.079 --> 00:18:41.759 an indicator of where they're going is he's in charge 323 00:18:41.799 --> 00:18:45.799 of the State Department's transition, So I think I think 324 00:18:45.799 --> 00:18:49.720 we could be looking for and that's to carry this forward. 325 00:18:49.759 --> 00:18:52.640 And some of the criticism on the Biden administration is 326 00:18:52.640 --> 00:18:56.759 they they've produced a lot of these sanctions and and 327 00:18:56.799 --> 00:18:59.799 it has given uh I think ran a feeling that 328 00:18:59.839 --> 00:19:02.319 they can essentially have their cake and eat it too, 329 00:19:02.880 --> 00:19:05.880 and they are close to being able to have a 330 00:19:05.920 --> 00:19:11.359 breakout moment to get enough nuclear material rich uranium to 331 00:19:11.680 --> 00:19:14.880 make a nuclear weapon. They of course have to weaponize it, 332 00:19:14.920 --> 00:19:17.480 so it's two steps, but they're closer now than they 333 00:19:17.759 --> 00:19:21.079 have ever been. I think the Biden administration to say, well, 334 00:19:21.079 --> 00:19:22.880 that's because you get out of the JCPA, and then 335 00:19:22.880 --> 00:19:26.119 the incoming Trump administration is because you reduce sanctions and 336 00:19:26.160 --> 00:19:30.359 you basically has given them no consequences significant cots because 337 00:19:30.519 --> 00:19:32.839 to the action that they can. So those are the 338 00:19:32.839 --> 00:19:34.799 two sides to that. But I do think the Trump 339 00:19:34.799 --> 00:19:37.920 administration is going to come in and really look at 340 00:19:38.079 --> 00:19:40.680 what they can do to respond to everything that's been 341 00:19:40.720 --> 00:19:42.920 going on with r on in the last year. 342 00:19:43.480 --> 00:19:48.559 Especially, it's also the case make that so that our 343 00:19:49.039 --> 00:19:51.480 range of options have been reduced, you know what I mean, 344 00:19:51.680 --> 00:19:55.720 And the problems run across administrations as we as we 345 00:19:55.839 --> 00:20:00.480 come in. But silf under the Biden administration this you know, 346 00:20:00.480 --> 00:20:04.559 and we're just stating facts here, there wasn't a clear 347 00:20:04.599 --> 00:20:09.200 eye on on enforcing those sanctions. In fact, the you know, 348 00:20:09.279 --> 00:20:13.880 rather than loopholes keeping the massive black holes appeared in 349 00:20:13.920 --> 00:20:17.599 them and not all the administration's fault, you know, in fairness, 350 00:20:17.599 --> 00:20:21.000 but you know, front companies have popped up over the world, 351 00:20:21.039 --> 00:20:23.799 particularly in you know, places like UAE are the potential 352 00:20:23.839 --> 00:20:30.880 allies that makes it problematic. Flat tankers get reflagged, the 353 00:20:30.960 --> 00:20:34.400 you know, the agreements between the Chinese and the Uranians 354 00:20:34.400 --> 00:20:39.480 and the Russians Erenians that involve the purchase of oil. 355 00:20:39.599 --> 00:20:43.599 All of these things mean that sanctions are even now 356 00:20:44.039 --> 00:20:45.839 you know, even if we wanted to go back and 357 00:20:45.920 --> 00:20:49.000 enforce them, we we just we don't. We're kind of 358 00:20:49.039 --> 00:20:51.440 on the ropes and being able to do that in 359 00:20:51.480 --> 00:20:52.480 a way that makes sense. 360 00:20:54.000 --> 00:20:57.519 Yes, actions avoidance has become a cottage energy. 361 00:20:58.079 --> 00:21:02.400 And global one. You know, I think probably playing in 362 00:21:02.400 --> 00:21:05.119 our favorite it's a really good point, Like what you said, 363 00:21:05.119 --> 00:21:07.680 about because I you know, of course you lived at 364 00:21:07.759 --> 00:21:09.759 a much higher level than me, but I was at 365 00:21:09.799 --> 00:21:12.799 Sock Center at the time, and Iran was a big 366 00:21:12.839 --> 00:21:17.079 problem for us, but the one of the one of 367 00:21:17.119 --> 00:21:19.319 the issues, and it was all about the proxies and 368 00:21:19.359 --> 00:21:22.519 the funding that went to the proxies. So now we're 369 00:21:22.519 --> 00:21:26.759 in a different world where paradoxically those proxies, the threat 370 00:21:26.799 --> 00:21:29.160 of that, I mean, Iran's options have been reduced too. 371 00:21:29.759 --> 00:21:31.920 His bolla is on the ropes. It's probably not down 372 00:21:31.960 --> 00:21:33.880 and out forever, but certainly on the ropes. I think 373 00:21:33.920 --> 00:21:36.799 everyone can agree that they've lost a wide sway for 374 00:21:36.880 --> 00:21:40.400 their leadership. And however, however they are structured. They've lost 375 00:21:40.400 --> 00:21:43.440 a very charismatic leader that held them together, and they've 376 00:21:43.480 --> 00:21:47.480 lost you know, estimates very but a huge bulk most 377 00:21:48.240 --> 00:21:52.319 most of there are of their their weapons that that 378 00:21:52.880 --> 00:21:56.079 we were most concerned about. And and similarly of course 379 00:21:56.519 --> 00:22:01.759 with har Maas so Iran, Iran's options have been reduced. 380 00:22:02.759 --> 00:22:07.519 But my question is what you know that that kind 381 00:22:07.519 --> 00:22:09.880 of is not good for a sign of because the 382 00:22:09.920 --> 00:22:12.799 only option to them and now is the nuclear option 383 00:22:12.960 --> 00:22:15.599 to go ahead and really you know, push for the bomb. 384 00:22:16.240 --> 00:22:19.599 And I would argue too. Of course they take a 385 00:22:19.599 --> 00:22:23.440 big risk in doing that. If Israel has indeed removed that, 386 00:22:23.559 --> 00:22:27.319 you know, they as Israel claims, there are you know, 387 00:22:27.319 --> 00:22:34.519 the S three hundred radar, but the the the restrictions 388 00:22:34.559 --> 00:22:38.240 on Israel to go after the nuclear program are kind 389 00:22:38.240 --> 00:22:42.559 of gone too. So I guess what I'm saying is 390 00:22:42.559 --> 00:22:46.880 a much more unstable situation than it was during the 391 00:22:46.920 --> 00:22:52.119 first Trump administration or indeed during the last administration. How 392 00:22:52.440 --> 00:22:55.720 do you feel, I mean, are you confident about our ability? 393 00:22:56.119 --> 00:22:59.920 They say our ability, not this administration's ability to handle this. 394 00:23:01.759 --> 00:23:04.119 So I mean one part and every administration is said 395 00:23:04.160 --> 00:23:07.960 that Iran having the glue weapon is unacceptable. So the 396 00:23:08.279 --> 00:23:10.559 question then becomes what does that mean, right, because it's 397 00:23:10.559 --> 00:23:13.359 easy to say that. So what it means to me, 398 00:23:13.839 --> 00:23:15.720 being a kind of a matter of fact guy, is 399 00:23:16.400 --> 00:23:18.759 you've got to be willing to do something militarily about 400 00:23:18.759 --> 00:23:20.880 it if they're going to go to toward it. If not, 401 00:23:21.000 --> 00:23:24.599