Speaker 1: Geopolitics, Daily Global News Briefing. I'm Jamie Kaw, thanks for
Speaker 1: joining me today. Is the Iran ceasefire formerly dead? Tromp
Speaker 1: declared the US around ceasefire over on July eighth. Not strained,
Speaker 1: not paused over. That's the word he used, and the
Speaker 1: distinction matters. The June nineteenth agreement had two main pillars,
Speaker 1: a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping
Speaker 1: and a framework for nuclear negotiations. Both are now in
Speaker 1: serious doubt. US forces struck Iranian sites after Tehran continued
Speaker 1: harassing vessels in the strait, and Trump followed that with
Speaker 1: a public statement threatening further strikes, possibly overnight. Fourteen American
Speaker 1: service members have now died in this conflict, the most
Speaker 1: recent and Navy commander presumed dead after a helicopter emergency
Speaker 1: landing in the Arabian Sea on July first. Here's what
Speaker 1: makes this genuinely ambiguous. Katari mediators are reportedly still active
Speaker 1: in Doha, running to thematic channels on the nuclear track,
Speaker 1: even as the military situation deteriorates. That means Tromp's over
Speaker 1: declaration could be a negotiating posture rather than a formal termination.
Speaker 1: The ceasefire had no enforcement mechanism. There's no body to
Speaker 1: register its death. What actually determines its status is whether
Speaker 1: US and Iranian forces stop shooting at each other, and
Speaker 1: right now that answer is unclear. The Strait of Hormuz
Speaker 1: is the pressure point the markets are watching. Before this
Speaker 1: conflict began, roughly one hundred and ten vessels transited to
Speaker 1: straight daily. On July first, that number was thirty five.
Speaker 1: Brent crue jumped six percent to seventy four dollars and
Speaker 1: fifty cents a barrel on July eighth, and the US
Speaker 1: revoked Iran's oil sale waiver the same day, tightening global
Speaker 1: supply further. Equity markets moved with it. Dow futures down
Speaker 1: over four hundred points, the S and P five hundred,
Speaker 1: and Nasdaq each off around half a percent in morning trading.
Speaker 1: The signal here is that markets aren't pricing in a
Speaker 1: contained skirmish, their pricing in sustained disruption to one of
Speaker 1: the world's most critical shipping choke points. Whether that repricing
Speaker 1: holds depends entirely on what happens in the next forty
Speaker 1: eight hours. There is one narrow, temporary pause in play
Speaker 1: Iran requested what Trump called a time out to hold
Speaker 1: the funeral for Supreme Leader Carmena, whose procession ends July ninth.
Speaker 1: Trump said he agreed not to target Uranian leaders during
Speaker 1: the proceedings. That's a twenty four hour window. It tells
Speaker 1: us two things. Iran still has a line of communication open,
Speaker 1: and Trump is using it selectively. Military posture on both
Speaker 1: sides stays in place. Here's the thing. The Iran situation dominated,
Speaker 1: but a separate development deserves attention. Trump ordered Treasury Secretary
Speaker 1: Bessent to cut off all trade with Spain on July eighth.
Speaker 1: The stated reason Spain spends two percent of GDP on
Speaker 1: defense and Trump's demand is five percent. The order came
Speaker 1: during the NATO summit itself. The legal footing here is shaky.
Speaker 1: The mechanism Trump appears to be invoking squoire as a
Speaker 1: declared unusual threat to US national security. Legal analysts say
Speaker 1: a NATO allies defense budget shortfall almost certainly doesn't meet
Speaker 1: that threshold. EU rules also blocked by lateral trade negotiations
Speaker 1: between individual member states and outside parties. That means an embargo,
Speaker 1: if pursued, would hit EU level retaliation triggers. Rather than
Speaker 1: Spain alone. NATO's thirty two member states did issue a
Speaker 1: joint declaration on July eighth, stating Iran must never acquire
Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon. That's a signal of alignment with US
Speaker 1: strategic goals in the region. But the Spain episode cuts
Speaker 1: the other way. Threatening an ally's economy during the alliance's
Speaker 1: own summit is a different kind of signal entirely. Whether
Speaker 1: European members respond by increasing defense spending or by hardening
Speaker 1: their resistance to US pressure is the real test of
Speaker 1: NATO cohesion right now. The near term signals to track
Speaker 1: are straightforward. Watch whether U s forces conduct the overnight
Speaker 1: strikes Trump, Watch whether Catar's mediation continues or goes quiet.
Speaker 1: Watch whether oil prices sustain above seventy dollars or pull
Speaker 1: back of talks resumed. And watch whether the Spain embargo
Speaker 1: moves past rhetoric toward any formal treasury action. The cease
Speaker 1: fire may be dead in name. Whether that means escalation
Speaker 1: or a reset depends on decisions being made right now,
Speaker 1: in the hours around a funeral procession. That's a narrow
Speaker 1: window and its closing. Thanks for listening. This podcast was
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