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<v Speaker 1>Geopolitics, Daily Global News Briefing. I'm Jamie Kaw, thanks for

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<v Speaker 1>joining me today. Is the Iran ceasefire formerly dead? Tromp

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<v Speaker 1>declared the US around ceasefire over on July eighth. Not strained,

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<v Speaker 1>not paused over. That's the word he used, and the

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<v Speaker 1>distinction matters. The June nineteenth agreement had two main pillars,

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<v Speaker 1>a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping

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<v Speaker 1>and a framework for nuclear negotiations. Both are now in

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<v Speaker 1>serious doubt. US forces struck Iranian sites after Tehran continued

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<v Speaker 1>harassing vessels in the strait, and Trump followed that with

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<v Speaker 1>a public statement threatening further strikes, possibly overnight. Fourteen American

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<v Speaker 1>service members have now died in this conflict, the most

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<v Speaker 1>recent and Navy commander presumed dead after a helicopter emergency

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<v Speaker 1>landing in the Arabian Sea on July first. Here's what

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<v Speaker 1>makes this genuinely ambiguous. Katari mediators are reportedly still active

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<v Speaker 1>in Doha, running to thematic channels on the nuclear track,

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<v Speaker 1>even as the military situation deteriorates. That means Tromp's over

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<v Speaker 1>declaration could be a negotiating posture rather than a formal termination.

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<v Speaker 1>The ceasefire had no enforcement mechanism. There's no body to

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<v Speaker 1>register its death. What actually determines its status is whether

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<v Speaker 1>US and Iranian forces stop shooting at each other, and

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<v Speaker 1>right now that answer is unclear. The Strait of Hormuz

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<v Speaker 1>is the pressure point the markets are watching. Before this

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<v Speaker 1>conflict began, roughly one hundred and ten vessels transited to

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<v Speaker 1>straight daily. On July first, that number was thirty five.

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<v Speaker 1>Brent crue jumped six percent to seventy four dollars and

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<v Speaker 1>fifty cents a barrel on July eighth, and the US

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<v Speaker 1>revoked Iran's oil sale waiver the same day, tightening global

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<v Speaker 1>supply further. Equity markets moved with it. Dow futures down

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<v Speaker 1>over four hundred points, the S and P five hundred,

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<v Speaker 1>and Nasdaq each off around half a percent in morning trading.

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<v Speaker 1>The signal here is that markets aren't pricing in a

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<v Speaker 1>contained skirmish, their pricing in sustained disruption to one of

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<v Speaker 1>the world's most critical shipping choke points. Whether that repricing

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<v Speaker 1>holds depends entirely on what happens in the next forty

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<v Speaker 1>eight hours. There is one narrow, temporary pause in play

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<v Speaker 1>Iran requested what Trump called a time out to hold

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<v Speaker 1>the funeral for Supreme Leader Carmena, whose procession ends July ninth.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump said he agreed not to target Uranian leaders during

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<v Speaker 1>the proceedings. That's a twenty four hour window. It tells

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<v Speaker 1>us two things. Iran still has a line of communication open,

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<v Speaker 1>and Trump is using it selectively. Military posture on both

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<v Speaker 1>sides stays in place. Here's the thing. The Iran situation dominated,

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<v Speaker 1>but a separate development deserves attention. Trump ordered Treasury Secretary

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<v Speaker 1>Bessent to cut off all trade with Spain on July eighth.

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<v Speaker 1>The stated reason Spain spends two percent of GDP on

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<v Speaker 1>defense and Trump's demand is five percent. The order came

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<v Speaker 1>during the NATO summit itself. The legal footing here is shaky.

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<v Speaker 1>The mechanism Trump appears to be invoking squoire as a

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<v Speaker 1>declared unusual threat to US national security. Legal analysts say

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<v Speaker 1>a NATO allies defense budget shortfall almost certainly doesn't meet

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<v Speaker 1>that threshold. EU rules also blocked by lateral trade negotiations

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<v Speaker 1>between individual member states and outside parties. That means an embargo,

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<v Speaker 1>if pursued, would hit EU level retaliation triggers. Rather than

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<v Speaker 1>Spain alone. NATO's thirty two member states did issue a

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<v Speaker 1>joint declaration on July eighth, stating Iran must never acquire

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<v Speaker 1>a nuclear weapon. That's a signal of alignment with US

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<v Speaker 1>strategic goals in the region. But the Spain episode cuts

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<v Speaker 1>the other way. Threatening an ally's economy during the alliance's

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<v Speaker 1>own summit is a different kind of signal entirely. Whether

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<v Speaker 1>European members respond by increasing defense spending or by hardening

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<v Speaker 1>their resistance to US pressure is the real test of

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<v Speaker 1>NATO cohesion right now. The near term signals to track

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<v Speaker 1>are straightforward. Watch whether U s forces conduct the overnight

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<v Speaker 1>strikes Trump, Watch whether Catar's mediation continues or goes quiet.

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<v Speaker 1>Watch whether oil prices sustain above seventy dollars or pull

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<v Speaker 1>back of talks resumed. And watch whether the Spain embargo

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<v Speaker 1>moves past rhetoric toward any formal treasury action. The cease

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<v Speaker 1>fire may be dead in name. Whether that means escalation

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<v Speaker 1>or a reset depends on decisions being made right now,

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<v Speaker 1>in the hours around a funeral procession. That's a narrow

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<v Speaker 1>window and its closing. Thanks for listening. This podcast was

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<v Speaker 1>built using AI technology a yes We production