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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to the Texas Tribune Tribe Cast for Tuesday,

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October twenty eighth. I'm Eleanor Klibanoff. Matthew Watkins is not

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here today to butcher my title, so we can stick

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with law and Politics reporter, which is my official title.

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We are so excited to be joined today by the

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Great Joshua Blank, the research director of the Texas Politics Project,

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where he's conducted public opinion polling of Texans for over

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a decade. Joshua, thanks for joining us.

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Speaker 2: Thanks. I think the Great was a little much average.

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Speaker 1: The average, Joshua Blank. That's very polling, it is. I

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I am just average, just average. We are going to

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go through today all the constitutional amendments that are on

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the ballot.

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Speaker 2: Lucky out there.

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Speaker 1: Yes, you guys are locked in. Do not touch that diet.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: We are currently in early voting, and I think probably

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a lot of people are thinking, like early voting, what

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is even on the ballot? Like obviously, last election, big deal,

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we elected a president, a governor, yes.

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Speaker 2: Got a governor, Congress.

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Speaker 1: President Congress coming up on next election will be the governor,

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the attorney general, all these important roles. This one is

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a little bit of an interim. There are if depending

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on where you live, you might be electing some local

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or sort of have some specific races, but generally thinking

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generally speaking statewide. The big thing on the ballot is

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the constitutional amendments, which means that to get a constitutional

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amendment on the ballot, lawmakers had to approve it on

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two thirds basis in both chambers. We should say, you know,

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Republicans have a two thirds majority in the Senate. They

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do not have a two thirds majority in the House.

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So the bar for this is pretty high, requires some

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at least some degree of bipartisanship behind it.

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Speaker 2: It certainly limits what can actually be on a constitutional

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amendment in some ways. Another way to look at it,

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it requires some Democrats to sign on to get something

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onto the ballot.

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Speaker 1: Right, and we don't have, as someone who has reported

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extensively on abortion in Texas, we do not have a

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citizen led ballot measure.

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Speaker 2: We have no mechanism to do that here and so,

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and part of it is just to say, I mean,

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I guess for you listening. Part of the thing about

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Texas and part of the reason that we constantly amend

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our constitution. The Constitution has so many amendments. Is one

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of the main things that distinguishes the Texas Constitution from

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the US Constitution is the US constitutution is pretty short

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and pretty general, and then there's that Necessary and Proper

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clause where all the powers kind of emanate from.

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Speaker 1: And we've never had to fight about that even once.

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Speaker 2: Never once. It's been so simple. No's just like parental rights,

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which will get to later, absolutely, But then in Texas

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it's different here, you know, it's almost very Texan. It's like, no, no,

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the government shall only have the explicit powers that we

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give them. So we have a very specific and very

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long constitutions, like twenty times the size of the US Constitution,

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and we have to amend it constantly. When people say,

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why do we have to mend a constants because because

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we explicitly have to give the government the powers to

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do the things that it does. So it's a different

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it's a different ballgame here, right.

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Speaker 1: That is interesting and it is part of I assume

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why Also, it is hard to amend the Constitution. We

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have to do it a lot, but the bar is

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pretty high.

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Speaker 2: I mean the bar is pretty high, but I mean

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it's sort of like, I mean, we have. Yeah, we've

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got like five hundred minutes. It's not that hard. I

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mean we got seventeen on this one, so it's it's

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higher than you know, the average you know, bill that

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has to pass through legislature, it requires some degree of

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supermajority support in both chambers, you point out. But ultimately

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it's actually like a pretty normal part of the political process.

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Speaker 1: Here, right, Like after a legislative session, we pretty commonly

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have a couple of conscercial amendments seventeen in this case, Yeah,

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that voters get a chance to weigh in on, and

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it's like really a very meaningful way for voters to

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have their voices heard, Like is this how you want

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the state to proceed? You are not an elected official

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probably listening to this probably actually are. But if you're

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not an elected official or don't work for an elective official,

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this is a way to have your voice.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I've been you know, I end up

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doing a lot of talking about these constitial amendments honestly

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to like daily tax and reporters and sort of student

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newspaper wards. You wanted like, well, what should we care

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about as students? Like, well, I don't know if you're

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gonna live here for a while, you should definitely care

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about water. You should, I mean, dementia prevention is another

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you should definitely care about what you talk about the specifically,

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But it's sort of like it's kind of like a

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bit of a pitch. It's like it's a bit of

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a long cell, but it speaks to what these things

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are about. Which these are really about long term usually

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big picture you know, sort of state level issues and

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about how the state is run, and that nothing is

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more important.

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Speaker 1: Right, And if you like the way the state, you

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know what your legislators are doing, it's a way to

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sort of pa you know, put through what they have

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put forward. If you don't like it, it's a way

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to sort of.

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Speaker 2: Well and I derail And that's a good way to

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like transition in some ways. To point out this isn't

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like a random selection of all the ideas that they consider.

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This is a very specifically selected and strategically selected list

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of issues that really hit different buttons for different people,

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but particularly driven by the majority party right.

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Speaker 1: And another piece of that is to undo a cons

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social amendment, you need to amend the constitution. Again, you

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need two thirds majority and the approval of the voters.

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So you know, if when these pass, they do, you know,

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stick around with the current majority party.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just because it would require such a massive shift,

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both in both chambers of the legislature to go back

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on what they already did, to put something new back

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in front of voters to assume that they would then

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make a different choice. So there's that. I think one

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other thing we should say before really get into this

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is just to remind you know, if you're watching the

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outcome of these elections, just remember the turnout these elections

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is insanely low. And so, I mean the last one

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was a little bit high. I looked this up. It

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was about fourteen percent of registered voters. Two point five

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million Texans out of about eighteen and a half million

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Richard voters voted in twenty twenty three. The rate of

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participation is somewhere between in the last like four costecial

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amendment cycles a little bit around six percent to fifteen percent,

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let's say, being generous as generous and both ends. Actually,

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and so this is just to say that, you know,

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this is not a random selection of voters, is not

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representative of the electric people. Ask a lot who votes

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in these elections. They tend to be older voters, They

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tend to be consistent voters. They tend to be people,

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honestly who lean more conservative just because of what that

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electric ultimately produces. When you have older homeowners in Texas

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who tend to vote these elections, they just tend to

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be more conservative and more Republican on balance, and the

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list of issues that's put before them tends to take

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that audience into consideration.

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Speaker 1: Right, right, So it is it does also mean like

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if there is higher turnout, if a group of people

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gets really motivated, you can really have an influence on

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this election.

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Speaker 2: In some cases. I mean, I think part of the

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challenge with a lot of these, honestly is just their technicalities.

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Like a lot of these have to do with really

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really technical issues that most people don't understand or at

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least don't understand as written, which is a whole other

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kind of pieces that we could talk about maybe at

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the end. But I would also say, and I say

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it to a lot of people, you don't have to

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vote on all of them. Anybody can go out and

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vote on as many or as few of these as

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they want. And so I'd say that even for any

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individual you don't have to be like educated on all

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seventeen of these to go vote. You can just go

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and vote for the one, two or three that you

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actually want. Point. So that's not a So there's no

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there's no necessary level of knowledge to participate, trust me,

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none whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I mean I vote in these. So it's

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like real, the bar could not be lower. So we're

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going to run through these. And what we're going to

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do is we're going to put all the tax related ones,

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which is the majority of the seventeen of the Amber.

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Speaker 2: Sixty percent, just to put it like it is an actual.

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Speaker 1: This is mostly a property tax election. We're going to

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put a pin in those, and we're going to run

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through in order the non property tax, non tax related ones,

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and then we're gonna circle back. So and we're going

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to sort of rapid fire through some of these. Some

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of them are a little bit more and.

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Speaker 2: You know, discussion worthy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, some are more discussion worthy. Proposition one easy place

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to start Texas State Technical College funding. This would so

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the Texas State Technical College, which is the state's primary

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higher education system for workforce development. This would get them

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an eight hundred and fifty million dollar endowment. They do

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not currently have a tax taxing authority, so they've been

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relying sort of uneven intermittent funding from the state legislature.

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This is part of this broader workforce development push. Let's

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get this, you know institute, that's this eleven campus system

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that's educating our workforce some like steady consistent funding.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and this has been a consistent priority of the

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governor as a priority is one of the emergency items

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I think heading to the legislator when you think about

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just broadly workforce training. And this is an effort to

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put some more teeth in this. And this is honestly,

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really I was. I look at this as sort of

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a continuation of an ongoing effort to create more stable

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funding streams for different, different varieties of higher education options

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in the States. So while you know, obviously the University

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of Texas and sort of the big Texas systems have

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their own funding system, big funding streams, to be the honest,

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you know, I think was last session they worked on

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community college funding mechanisms and how they're going to do that.

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Here they're creating again a stable mechanism for funding the

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state technical colleges. And this is all about a broader desire,

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which is part of our Texas overall goals of educating

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the population with a college degree or some kind of

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post posting a high school education, whether for training or

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for just generally. Yeah, and so this is just part

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of that. And this is really just putting teeth into that,

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actually putting money behind it.

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Speaker 1: Right, pretty straightforward. So that's Prop one, Prop three.

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Speaker 2: Right, a little less straightforward lestward.

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Speaker 1: You know, this is about bail. It is sometimes referred

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to in the Capital as bail reform, which is confusing

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because you know, ten years ago bail reform meant sort

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of the opposite.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, I mean, I think it depends on

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who you're time. I mean, this is one of the

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things about American society right now in general, depend on

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who you're talking to about certain terms, they mean very

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different things. Right when you're talking about things like discrimination,

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who you're talking to matters, and you're talking about free speech,

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who you're talking to matters. Here, bail reform has really

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taken on a new I'll say, I'll say, let me.

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I want to say, it's taken on a new mean,

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but has been strategically re engineered to mean something.

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Speaker 1: It depends to me swung in the opposite.

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Speaker 2: Direction right, and so bail reform for a long time

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was really almost a right left co LIS's really kind

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of the far ends actually of both political parties who

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were trying to sort of decriminalize a lot of actors,

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a sort of libertarian push for this. There was a

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liberal push for this and kind of keeping people out

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of jail, sort of the concern over inequities and the

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cash bail system. But ultimately, I would think sort of

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looking around twenty twenty in the focus on defunding the

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police and the success that Republicans found in mobilizing voters

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against you know, I would say perceive democratic excesses around

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and even like down drug judges too, but around sort

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of decriminalization, you know, sort of policing efforts in general,

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and this is sort of what the tail of that

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in some ways, and I think, you know, the governor

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really pushed for a legislative effort on the bail issue.

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It really took a long time to kind of get there.

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And the reason it took a long time to get

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there was because the House has kind of been in

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the old mold of bail reformed for a long time,

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and actually they've been moving the opposite direction, and so

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I think this ended up being a pretty heavy lift.

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But ultimately, I mean, when I look at what it is,

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it's not a huge change. I mean, for the most part,

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most judges are not releasing really violent offenders back out

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onto the street. And what this really just codifies in

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some ways is that if the state demons traits that

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they have a flight risk, then they can't do that.

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But honestly, and this is one of those things, this

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is like a real is this a real problem or

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is this more of a solution in search of a problems.

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I don't think there's a lot of judges in the

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state who are right letting dangerous offenders out on the

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street repeatedly. But this is a way to deliver on

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bail reform, to continue the discussion about, you know, ultimately

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policing crime and public safety in a way that the

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governor has really engaged with.

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Speaker 1: Right the governor has sort of highlighted a couple of

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cases where this has happened and where, like you know,

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there's been horrible outcomes, right as indicative of a larger

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problem that a lot of research says, you know, it's

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not necessarily a wider problem.

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Speaker 2: Well, and the issue I think is that, you know what,

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most of the discussion in this area has really been

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about the last you know, five or ten years at least,

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has been about the consequences of keeping people in jail

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while they've been accused of a crime they you know,

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have presumed us yeah and the yeah that thing, and

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the consequences that has on these people's lives and society

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and culture and on and on and on. So jailer,

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cro crowding and all this is but this is a

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this is a way to reform relate that issue.

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Speaker 1: Right, So, this specifically would require judges to deny bail

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in certain cases for individuals accused of committing specific felonies

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such as murder, aggravated assault, and indecency with a child.

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They would have to demonstrate that bail is not enough

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to prevent the defendant from being a flight or public

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safety risk if they, you know, defendants who are legally

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oh right. Also this part, which is defendants who are

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legally presumed innocent, would also be entitled to the right

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to an attorney during their bail here, right.

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Speaker 2: So, So I mean it's one of these things where

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you know, this happens a lot with constitutional medicine, and

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you'll see this as we get some of these other ones.

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Sometimes they they sort of do things or say that

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the aren't really huge changes, right yeah, well we'll get

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to this in a minute. Like, you know, but Texas

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doesn't have inheritance tax, but we're going to ban it it, right, So.

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Speaker 1: Right, it's like because it's a and to be fair,

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that's because it anstitial amendment sort of ties lawmaker's hands

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in the future, in the.

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Speaker 2: Future, right yeah, And this this would again make it

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And I think what this does in some ways it

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makes the expectation, even if it doesn't actually fundamentally change anything,

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that the default in these cases is that these are

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probably going to keep these people in jail.

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Speaker 1: Right, And it's you know, I think increased oversight over judges.

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We're supposed to degree of independence, which we will get to.

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Speaker 2: We'll get to that in a minute.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay. Proposition for water infrastructure funding. This is a

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big one that was a huge focus this legislative session.

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If you want to know more about water infrastructure funding,

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you should look at the over twenty five articles that

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the Texas Tribune did in.

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Speaker 2: Love I love water infrastructure funding. I was here for

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the last big water bill, yeah, back in like twenty

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thirteen when they did the bat last the Swift and

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all these different pieces of this has been ongoing absolutely.

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Speaker 1: I mean there's been so much like research showing that

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Texas's water infrastructure is not ready for the population boom

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that we're having. Their Texas twenty thirty six estimates that

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the state needs nearly one hundred and fifty four billion

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dollars by twenty fifty. This is not that this is

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twenty billion dollars for water projects over the next two decades,

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up to one billion dollars of sales tax revenue into

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the Texas Water Fund each year starting in twenty twenty seven,

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to fix aging pipes and other infrastructure, developing and increasing

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new water sources, flood mitigation, supporting conservation efforts to help

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meet water demands, which you know is a to some

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extent a bipartisan understanding that we have a problem we

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need to fix, right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Oh, I think it's definitely, I mean, it's it's

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definitely a bipartisan You know, when we poll Texans over

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the last few years about whether or not they've experienced

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a boil water notice or some kind of other interruption

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in service over the last year. Regularly we see more

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than a third of text and saying that they have,

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which is in some ways, you know, an understatement of

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the problem because that only sort of a is the

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end user, let alone all the water that's gained loss

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in these pipes and in a state that honestly has

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drought problems, right, And so we know this is you know,

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an ongoing issue, and it's a bipartisan issue. You know,

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there's some challenges here. I will say worse first about

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the mechanism. I think, you know, you raise this issue

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about one hundred and fifty one billion estimated need against

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the twenty billion and one of the things and I

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you know, the regional water authorities are gonna have a

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lot of authority to distribute these funds. And my understanding

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is the way they generally do this stuff is they

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look for projects that are you know, matching some amount

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of the funds or using bonding authority to at least

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you know, finance part of the project, and then they're

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working with the various regional authorities and then get more

348
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money so that money can multiply out more than what

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it looks like. And again I'm not an expert, and

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sure water water policy economics, if that's a thing, I'm

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sure it is a.

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Speaker 1: There's a guy out there.

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry, now he's a ut right now he's madam.

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You can email me. But this will this will move it,

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you know, I think in that direction, I think a

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lot of people, it seems, you know, in what recent days,

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are people who are worried about this proposition, in particular

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because it's a big price tag and in a generally

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fisciality conservative state, there is concern that even though this

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is like really critical I mean like not even like

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kind of critical infrastructure, like fundamentally critical infrastructure, like we

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don't have water, people don't live here kind of thing,

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it is possible that this could have a tougher fight

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then maybe it should.

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Speaker 1: Right Like I think during the legenlative session there was

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a lot of like a decent amount of agreement on this,

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and this is what can happen between the end of

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the legislative session and well.

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Speaker 2: There was a I'll say this, you know, there was

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a decent amount agreement on the overall goals.

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Speaker 1: But there was there was there was price tag.

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Speaker 2: Well there's price tag, and there's also about the distribution

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of the funds between you know, dealing with leaking pipes,

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so aging infrastructure versus new capacity, and that's just you know,

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that's just an issue. I mean, the problem is both, right,

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that's the problem.

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Speaker 1: Make it forty billion.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you can't. You can't. You know that you can't

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really trade off one and the other. They're both needed.

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And so I think that was the main sort of

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conflict point. And obviously you know, if you're depend on

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where you are, you might have more of one issue

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or more of another issue, right, Right, So I think

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I think that was more the lines of conflicts are

385
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than partisanship in some ways.

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Speaker 1: Right, absolutely, So, Yeah, it'll be interest that one will

387
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be interesting to see. I think it seemed maybe more

388
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certain towards the end of session than it does now

389
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for yeah, voters.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see. I mean, I'm you know, you never know.

391
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Speaker 1: Right and right, I mean, and I do think, like

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we said, it's something affects so many people that you know,

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when people do go to the box, you know, they

394
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thinking and in.

395
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Speaker 2: The past, you know, and we've seen these these efforts

396
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put sort of these infrastructure bills on on the belt.

397
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They've usually passed. They might not pass as overwhelmingly as

398
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people expect them to, but it doesn't really matter at

399
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the end of the day, whether you know, fifty plus

400
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one is good enough.

401
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Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll take it. Yeah, right, Okay. Proposition twelve changing

402
00:17:19,759 --> 00:17:22,839
the State Judicial Conduct Commission. So this one, the Texas

403
00:17:22,839 --> 00:17:26,839
State Commission on Judicial Conduct sort of oversees judges and

404
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:31,880
handles any allegations of judicial misconduct. Currently it is six

405
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judges to attorneys five citizens. This would turn that into

406
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six judges which we are appointed by the Texas Supreme Court,

407
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and seven citizens non lawyers appointed by the governor who

408
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I'm sorry, non judges who are at least thirty five

409
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years of age. You know. This sort of is in

410
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similar came from I think, sort of a similar impetus

411
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as the bail stuff of like judges are being too lax,

412
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a lot of attention on Harris County in particular.

413
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's a couple of things going on here.

414
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I think that's a perfectly reasonable place to sort of

415
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stick this, and I think that works. I mean, I

416
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think there's some other ways to look at this too,

417
00:18:06,559 --> 00:18:09,079
which is one, you know, there's there's sort of a

418
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a broader move towards Morris executive authority, especially among Republicans,

419
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both at the federal level and the state level. And

420
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some of that is, you know, there's a little bit

421
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of a fancy word is indogeneity. That's just what indogeneity.

422
00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,240
You should look it up. It's an academic where yeah,

423
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that's me. Look it up, kids. But it's when things

424
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are affecting each other, right, we can't tell, right. And

425
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so in some ways, you know, this move towards executleators

426
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at bottom up is a top down like, it's all

427
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kind of coming from various directions. You know, Abbott sort

428
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of has initiated a lot of more executive authority on

429
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his part, but it's also been given to him in

430
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a lot of ways. Patrick as well, he's initiated a

431
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lot more executive there, it's also been given to him, right.

432
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And what's interesting about this is that this is about

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the judicial branch, and this is about changing the balance

434
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of power in terms of who gets to have oversight

435
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over the judicial branch from the judicial branch, which is

436
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how it usually is, to the executive branch, because the

437
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executive branch would appoint the majority of the members of

438
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this commission. And part of the way that Texas governors

439
00:19:05,079 --> 00:19:06,920
have historically, and this is sort of going back over

440
00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,920
the last two governorships, accumulated this executive power in a

441
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state where the constitution really envisions a weak governor is

442
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through appointment powers. It's through placing like minded allies on

443
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boards and commissions to oversee and execute strategy and policy.

444
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And so this is like one of those kind of

445
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like kind of a big deal, kind of hiding in

446
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playing sight. It doesn't seem it seems like a pretty

447
00:19:28,519 --> 00:19:31,319
technical thing, but ultimately, what you're doing is you're giving

448
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the governor the ability to appoint the majority of the

449
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members of the Judicial Oversight Commission at a time when

450
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we're seeing increasingly, you know, wo'ld say executive I don't know,

451
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castigation of the judicial branch and particular judges and based

452
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specifically on specific opinions they make. And so it's hard

453
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not to look at this and say that even though

454
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this is about judicial overstate, it actually probably decreases the

455
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independence of the judiciary if passed. And that's a very

456
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like political sciency, you know.

457
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Speaker 1: Sure, right, but I think I mean, I think it's

458
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one of those things you think, well, sure, more oversight

459
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of really.

460
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Speaker 2: Or citizens, citizens are better? Right?

461
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Speaker 1: Right? It is interesting too because speaking of the power

462
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of appointments, as of Friday, I think, you know, so

463
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six of these judges would be appoint by the Text

464
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Supreme Court. Seven of the nine judges justices on the

465
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Tech Supreme Court are appointed by.

466
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Speaker 2: Thinkner app Well, I think it's eight now, right, because

467
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,160
we seven now with Kyle Hawkins okay? Seven Howkins okay?

468
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Which and again and even that in and of itself

469
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is not actually how the system is designed, right, I

470
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mean those that is that is some kind of you know,

471
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agreement that has emerged where these were these judges who

472
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normally run for election in Texas independently and the claim

473
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is to create citizen accountability, are instead retiring early from

474
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their terms and being then appointed by the governor and

475
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an interim appoinment and then running as incumbents.

476
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Speaker 1: Right, Kyle Hawkins now, who was just appointed, will run

477
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as the incumbent even though he was appointed.

478
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Speaker 2: By the governor who has done this now with seven

479
00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:59,359
of the nine justices. Those justices are also the people

480
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,559
picking the judges on this side. So it's a little

481
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:04,799
you know, it's a weighty one, even though it doesn't

482
00:21:04,799 --> 00:21:05,359
seem like it.

483
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 1: Right, No, right, certainly. Yeah. Only one of our current

484
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:13,000
nine Supreme Court justices was actually originally elected to the seat.

485
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,759
Do you know who it is. It's a good trivia.

486
00:21:15,839 --> 00:21:21,599
Speaker 2: That's a good trivia, John Divine. Oh well, no problem there, Yes, okay, okay.

487
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:25,880
Speaker 1: So that's Proposition twelve. Proposition fourteen funding for dementia research

488
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,839
and prevention. This would provide three billion dollars to create

489
00:21:28,839 --> 00:21:33,359
the Dementia Prevention Research Institute of Texas to study dementia, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's,

490
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:37,880
and other brain related conditions. Wide bipartisan support, some resistance

491
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,039
to the price tag, but a huge deal.

492
00:21:40,079 --> 00:21:41,519
Speaker 2: I mean, honestly, it's sort of hard. I mean, you

493
00:21:41,559 --> 00:21:44,440
know this in the time when I think in general

494
00:21:44,519 --> 00:21:47,119
the view among the public or just sort of this

495
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,359
general you know, the zeitgeist's government stinks, government can't get

496
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,960
anything right, and this is the opposite. This is a

497
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:54,480
really big deal. And I mean this is I think

498
00:21:54,559 --> 00:21:56,319
as I saw. I mean, one, if you look at

499
00:21:56,319 --> 00:21:58,759
the you know, the dementias is one. We're measuring everything better,

500
00:21:59,079 --> 00:22:01,359
So there's that. But if you look at the rate

501
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,640
of dementia, like in a state like Texas, it's overwhelming.

502
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,880
I mean, it's really shocking and kind of frightening. This

503
00:22:07,079 --> 00:22:09,200
you know, investment I think would match about how much

504
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,720
the federal government is putting into dementiary research right now.

505
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,480
But it's in the same ballpark. And the other side

506
00:22:14,519 --> 00:22:16,799
of this is just for the state. For the state,

507
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:20,759
it really creates a ton of opportunity in terms of businesses,

508
00:22:20,799 --> 00:22:23,119
in terms of medical reasons. So this is actually like

509
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,599
even though it's sort of I don't want to say

510
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:27,319
it seems random, because I feel like that's a little

511
00:22:27,319 --> 00:22:29,480
bit that's not fair, but it sort of seems to be.

512
00:22:29,559 --> 00:22:31,000
It's like one of these things is not like the other,

513
00:22:31,039 --> 00:22:32,839
and this thing is sitting here, but it's actually I

514
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,240
think one of the things in here that it's a

515
00:22:35,279 --> 00:22:37,200
really big deal for the state, like both now and

516
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,440
in the future. Yeah, and maybe for the country too actually, right.

517
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,079
Speaker 1: I mean it's modeled after like the cancer version of it,

518
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,359
which is now the second largest funder of cancer research

519
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:47,319
in the country, which is I mean just amazing.

520
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 2: So this is and the expectation is this is going

521
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,079
to be pretty similar kind of a impact, right.

522
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:55,759
Speaker 1: Yes, Okay, Proposition fifteen, codifying p rental rights. Yeah, not

523
00:22:55,799 --> 00:23:00,599
a straightforward this is this thing it's been going on

524
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:02,839
in Texas for the last couple of years around you know,

525
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:07,359
parental rights. And this would amend the Constitution to say

526
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,680
that the Constitution provides that to entrying truths that are

527
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,279
deeply rooted in this nation's history and traditions, the people

528
00:23:13,319 --> 00:23:15,240
of Texas here by affirm that a parent is the

529
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,240
responsibility to nurture and protect the parent's child, and the

530
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,240
corresponding fundamental right to exercise care, customing, and control of

531
00:23:21,279 --> 00:23:24,400
the parent's child, including the right to make decisions concerning

532
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:25,319
the child's upbringing.

533
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:26,519
Speaker 2: Cool.

534
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:27,799
Speaker 1: Why do we have to care?

535
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 2: Well? Because nobody, I mean honest say, I don't want

536
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,079
to say I'll i'll be I'll just say it this way.

537
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,039
Nobody knows what that means. Now, I mean we do,

538
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,160
like an a basic sense. And just to say for

539
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,880
the people out there who have, like you know, deep

540
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,440
fears about like what does this mean? I mean to say,

541
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:44,119
where did this come from? I mean, this is outline

542
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:45,960
kind of federal case laws. So it didn't like come

543
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,839
out of thin air. This wasn't ridden you know by

544
00:23:48,839 --> 00:23:51,000
some think tank somewhere. This is something that's you know,

545
00:23:51,039 --> 00:23:53,400
I would say, relatively established the challenges And we were

546
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:57,039
kind of joking about this. I think before, you know,

547
00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:01,759
defining rights and define the extent of rights and their

548
00:24:01,799 --> 00:24:05,799
application who, where, when and under what conditions is a

549
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:10,599
very very tricky enterprise. And anyone who studies US history

550
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:11,880
knows that, Like, you know, you kind of look at

551
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:13,680
these sorts of rights whatever they are, think about the

552
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,480
Bill of Rights, and then it takes hundreds of years

553
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,559
to sort of figure out what that actually means. And

554
00:24:19,559 --> 00:24:22,400
I think that's why people have mentioned about this and

555
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,480
sort of their concern is that, you know, where what

556
00:24:24,599 --> 00:24:27,720
is you know, what is the water's edge on parental rights?

557
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:29,279
And I think in a place like Texas, the thing

558
00:24:29,319 --> 00:24:31,279
that I you know, I think inevitably comes up is

559
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,359
and where does that water's edge? You know, I guess

560
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,240
get everybody else wet? Right? You know, at what point

561
00:24:37,279 --> 00:24:39,720
do your rights sort of you know, stem into my

562
00:24:39,839 --> 00:24:41,079
rights and at which point? And then how do we

563
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,480
resolve those conflicts? Right? And so this doesn't do anything

564
00:24:44,519 --> 00:24:48,279
to clear that up. But in some sense, what you

565
00:24:48,279 --> 00:24:50,480
could say is that as opposed to sort of piecemeal

566
00:24:50,519 --> 00:24:54,279
efforts to give parents more access to decisions about the

567
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,519
child's education, decisions about services being provided to their children,

568
00:24:58,079 --> 00:25:02,240
potentially books, other kinds of educational material and content. This

569
00:25:02,319 --> 00:25:05,839
is kind of a broad blanket sort of you know,

570
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,160
right that sort of subsumes all that other stuff that

571
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,440
they have been doing. I just don't know if this

572
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:12,519
isn't something that you know, down the line, there's not

573
00:25:13,079 --> 00:25:16,559
concerned that maybe this was not a wise idea because ultimately,

574
00:25:16,839 --> 00:25:18,920
you don't know who's going to want to, I would say,

575
00:25:19,039 --> 00:25:20,799
exercise their rights and what those rights are going to

576
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:22,960
look like. We only have one idea in mind, and

577
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,200
then later it's it's something completely different.

578
00:25:25,279 --> 00:25:26,839
Speaker 1: Right, Like I think, you know, there was a lot

579
00:25:26,839 --> 00:25:29,240
of talk this session and you know, build a pass around,

580
00:25:29,279 --> 00:25:32,319
like you know, a teacher can't you know, help a

581
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:36,680
child socially transition without their parents, you know, buy in

582
00:25:36,839 --> 00:25:37,279
or like, you know.

583
00:25:37,599 --> 00:25:38,799
Speaker 2: Well just just to be a little bit mean, a

584
00:25:38,839 --> 00:25:42,200
teacher can't help a child change you know, out of peace,

585
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,920
staying pants if their parents haven't said okay. So there's

586
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,319
a lot of like I mean, there's like there's you know,

587
00:25:47,319 --> 00:25:49,000
I have kids in the public schools. I have checked

588
00:25:49,039 --> 00:25:51,200
a lot of boxes, sign on a lot of forms.

589
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,079
I've signed a lot of forms so that the teachers

590
00:25:53,079 --> 00:25:55,200
can give basic assistance with a lot of error rights.

591
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:57,279
Speaker 1: But then there's also like, you know, there was a

592
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,599
lawsuit brought with Texas band gender for I mean care

593
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,000
for my There was a lawsuit brought under the existing

594
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,720
printal rights statute basically saying like, don't I, as a

595
00:26:04,759 --> 00:26:06,880
parent have a right to give my child gender firming

596
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,680
care in consult with their doctor. The court sort of

597
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,519
said no, And so now this new thing is on there.

598
00:26:12,559 --> 00:26:13,640
We don't know what that will mean.

599
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 2: It's going to mean a lot of litigations. Gold be

600
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:17,839
a lot of litigation. This is something that we're not

601
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,119
really going to know what it means honestly for at

602
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,000
least decades really realistically.

603
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:24,839
Speaker 1: Right, That's one of those things like years from now,

604
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:27,640
like I do now with where it's like calling experts

605
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:29,440
be like why did they put that in the constitution

606
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:31,640
and they're like, we don't know. It was a weird

607
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:33,079
time in Texas, is right.

608
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:34,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, well you have to understand.

609
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 1: Yeah. Another one that is something we already is already true.

610
00:26:40,839 --> 00:26:45,160
Proposition sixteen clarifying citizenship requirements for voters. This would add

611
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,440
language to the Texas Constitution to explicitly say that persons

612
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:50,880
who are not citizens of the United States cannot vote

613
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,720
in the state. Just already true, already true.

614
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:55,720
Speaker 2: Well, so this is a reflection again of you know,

615
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,480
the majority party and the reality. That's one challenge that

616
00:26:59,519 --> 00:27:03,720
Republicans have right now in Donald Trump's presidency is that

617
00:27:03,759 --> 00:27:05,799
he's taken the issue of immigration and the border off

618
00:27:05,799 --> 00:27:09,720
the table. So for you know, really, honestly, maybe over

619
00:27:09,759 --> 00:27:12,319
a decade, whenever we ask Texans what's the most important

620
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,279
issue facing the state of Texas, not the country, the

621
00:27:14,279 --> 00:27:17,559
state of Texas, without fail, usually in the ballpark of

622
00:27:17,599 --> 00:27:20,000
sixty to seventy percent of Republicans will say immigration or

623
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,599
border security. Now, if you wanted to say, well, what's

624
00:27:22,599 --> 00:27:24,759
the Democrat's top issue, it would take about six to

625
00:27:24,799 --> 00:27:26,799
seven issues to get up to sixty or seventy percent

626
00:27:26,799 --> 00:27:29,400
of because they're so split out. Now that's changed recently,

627
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:33,000
story for another day, But ultimately, with Trump taking over

628
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,759
the executive office and so aggressively cracking down in immigration,

629
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:38,960
you know, one it seems like less of a problem

630
00:27:39,039 --> 00:27:42,559
to Republicans in particular, but two, you can't have the

631
00:27:42,559 --> 00:27:45,759
same sort of rhetoric about the unchecked problem of immigration

632
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,440
from Republicans who've been talking about the unchecked problem of immigration,

633
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:52,160
you know, perpetually, you know, basically for the entirety of

634
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:54,480
any time that Donald Trump has not been in office,

635
00:27:55,279 --> 00:27:57,599
and so how, But it doesn't mean the voters aren't

636
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,440
still somewhat concerned about it still not still a meaning,

637
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,440
it's still or an issue for republic marks. But there's

638
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:02,720
not much that you can go out there and do

639
00:28:02,839 --> 00:28:04,680
besides her of support the president.

640
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 1: Right, the legislature can't.

641
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 2: So this is a chance to to sort of point

642
00:28:08,039 --> 00:28:10,480
out in some cases some of your most conservative, older,

643
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,480
most you know, consistent voters that in fact, we are

644
00:28:13,519 --> 00:28:15,519
still doing this. And it also gets it's a twofer

645
00:28:15,559 --> 00:28:18,480
because you get voting also, right, So voter voter fraud

646
00:28:18,519 --> 00:28:21,480
which we don't have any evidence of, uh you know,

647
00:28:21,559 --> 00:28:23,640
nonsenizen voting which is not legal and we have no

648
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,680
evidence of. So vote, but we're not not going to

649
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,519
happen here. It's not going to happen today never.

650
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 1: And now that is the non taxing issues we are

651
00:28:34,279 --> 00:28:35,960
now going to get to Texas.

652
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 2: All right, this is what I always tell my kids.

653
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,799
I'm I'm learning about or whatever is in an Amazon package. Yeah,

654
00:28:40,799 --> 00:28:43,440
what I don't want them to ask me, I say, taxes, taxes, Yes,

655
00:28:43,799 --> 00:28:44,759
it's more tax stuff.

656
00:28:44,839 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, the main category is lowering taxes on certain groups

657
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:53,720
of Texans. And I'll run through sort of what the

658
00:28:53,759 --> 00:28:56,000
specifics are of each, but big picture, I mean, this

659
00:28:56,079 --> 00:28:58,000
has been an issue for a long time, Right, this

660
00:28:58,119 --> 00:29:03,160
is a thing that Texas owners or Texas lawmakers certainly

661
00:29:03,599 --> 00:29:07,039
have been talking about for a long time.

662
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:10,559
Speaker 2: Well, you know, this is just a perpetually difficult issue.

663
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:12,920
And I mean I don't just to state the obvious

664
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,079
here that the challenge in a state that relies on

665
00:29:15,119 --> 00:29:18,519
property taxes is that, you know, people don't have control

666
00:29:19,799 --> 00:29:22,160
over their taxes, right, I mean, their taxes are related

667
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:23,839
to their property, not based on their income, and so

668
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,440
that can create some real sticky problems for people in

669
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:30,839
certain situations. Elderly people whose incomes are fixed, for example, Right,

670
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,880
people who go through you know, serious strategies in one

671
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:35,480
way or another, that can be a huge problem. Your

672
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,640
property taxes don't change even that you might lose an income,

673
00:29:38,519 --> 00:29:42,839
and so in some ways this is just a perpetual issue.

674
00:29:43,279 --> 00:29:45,440
And the other challenge is the fact that because of

675
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:49,440
the way the mechanisms available to lawmakers, they really don't

676
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:53,039
have a huge sort of I don't know, lever at

677
00:29:53,079 --> 00:29:57,519
their disposal to significantly impact the property taxes the Texans pay.

678
00:29:57,519 --> 00:29:59,319
And you can say, like, whoa, but but they do. Yeah,

679
00:29:59,319 --> 00:30:00,759
But every time we ask them about it. So every

680
00:30:00,759 --> 00:30:03,759
time we asked Textans sort of after the fact, about well,

681
00:30:03,839 --> 00:30:05,799
is this enough to make a difference? Have you noticed it?

682
00:30:05,839 --> 00:30:08,240
How did they do on this issue? And the answer

683
00:30:08,279 --> 00:30:10,440
is always no, I didn't notice. No it's not enough,

684
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,240
and no I don't approve. And so you know, even

685
00:30:13,279 --> 00:30:15,319
at the end of most sessions, I'll book end this

686
00:30:15,359 --> 00:30:16,759
and level we can go through it, you know, but

687
00:30:16,759 --> 00:30:18,160
I'm booking with the polling a little bit. You at

688
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:19,640
the beginning of the session when we asked Texans in

689
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,559
an open ended question, you know, what should the legislature

690
00:30:21,599 --> 00:30:23,000
be focused on it? What are they you know? And

691
00:30:23,119 --> 00:30:26,400
obviously immigration comes up, is what it is. But what

692
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:28,640
also came up was, you know, prices, cost of living,

693
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,880
like because the inflation issue and this is just sort

694
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,799
of ever present in the polling and it's getting worse,

695
00:30:35,039 --> 00:30:37,640
not inflation but prices because inflation as well it's moving.

696
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:41,759
We'll see, we'll see. But because Texans were so worried

697
00:30:41,759 --> 00:30:43,279
about the cost of living and prices, I mean, one

698
00:30:43,279 --> 00:30:45,559
of the things is that's hard. That's nothing the legislature

699
00:30:45,599 --> 00:30:47,279
can just go and say, oh, well, we'll we'll lower

700
00:30:47,319 --> 00:30:47,799
your grocery.

701
00:30:47,839 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 1: We're not going to do a price control.

702
00:30:49,319 --> 00:30:50,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're not going to do a price control. We're

703
00:30:50,839 --> 00:30:52,319
not gonna We're not gonna come in from the other

704
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:55,240
side and do some kind of like support through social

705
00:30:55,279 --> 00:30:59,240
safety net spending. That's not happening. So really, I look

706
00:30:59,279 --> 00:31:02,000
at the odd suite and why there's so many tax

707
00:31:02,039 --> 00:31:05,359
proposals on here, and to some extent, is the legislature's

708
00:31:05,359 --> 00:31:07,759
effort to try to address the twin concerns of the

709
00:31:07,799 --> 00:31:10,920
cost of living in the cost of housing. Right, It's

710
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:12,680
easy to look at this and just sort of general

711
00:31:12,839 --> 00:31:15,440
you know, Republicans like tax cuts, so therefore we have

712
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,400
a bunch of tax cuts. But actually, I think this

713
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,920
is the effort that is most visible that they can

714
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,039
make to actually impact Texans day to day financial lives.

715
00:31:24,319 --> 00:31:27,039
Speaker 1: Right. But on the flip side, right, I mean, these

716
00:31:27,079 --> 00:31:30,799
property taxes go towards things like paying for schools, paying

717
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,200
you know, local governments rely on them, and so there

718
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:37,119
is this piece too that's like the state will, particularly

719
00:31:37,119 --> 00:31:39,119
on schooling. The state has to make up that difference,

720
00:31:39,279 --> 00:31:41,640
like someone has to pay these bills eventually.

721
00:31:41,839 --> 00:31:43,359
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, no, I mean, I think that's one of

722
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:45,160
the things that people fail to appreciate is that whenever

723
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,079
you're talking about property taxes and Texas, you're talking about

724
00:31:47,079 --> 00:31:48,880
public education. And if you don't want to like just

725
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,240
accept the fact that this is more complicated than it is,

726
00:31:51,319 --> 00:31:53,240
then you're never gonna understand it, because that is the

727
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:54,839
big piece of this. I mean, the tech. Just to

728
00:31:54,839 --> 00:31:56,880
be clear to I think the listeners probably know this,

729
00:31:57,279 --> 00:32:00,960
But the legislature does not does not have a property

730
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:03,279
The state of Texas doesn't have a properity text. Local

731
00:32:03,359 --> 00:32:06,240
entities collect taxes. What the legislature is doing here is

732
00:32:06,279 --> 00:32:09,920
it's basically buying down the school property taxes and replace well,

733
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,079
at least with the host set exemption. We'll get into it,

734
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:15,319
and weards replacing those funds in the public education budget.

735
00:32:15,319 --> 00:32:17,279
This has been an ongoing discussion for a number of years.

736
00:32:17,319 --> 00:32:18,440
Has been a lot of back and forth on this,

737
00:32:18,599 --> 00:32:22,039
especially once those fund budgets got out of whack. At

738
00:32:22,039 --> 00:32:24,799
which point the local entities were paying more for public

739
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:26,920
education than was the state for a while because the

740
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:30,480
state was using the rising property values essentially buy it off.

741
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:32,480
So they were basically saying, oh, you know, local entities

742
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:33,960
are raising property texts, they're taxing you out of your

743
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:35,200
own But at the same time, they were taking all

744
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,759
that extra revenue and they're putting it in other places

745
00:32:37,799 --> 00:32:41,079
as they were decreasing their spend on public education. They've

746
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:45,079
obviously rebalanced that over the last couple of years, but

747
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,880
this is like a big, continuing, ongoing expense in the

748
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:49,720
budget that's only growing, right.

749
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 1: Like, there's been some talk lately of right like zero

750
00:32:52,519 --> 00:32:55,680
out property taxes, abolished property taxes, there is there are

751
00:32:55,759 --> 00:32:58,559
ripple effects to that. Well, the state has.

752
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,039
Speaker 2: To Yeah, it's not clear to how that's anything other

753
00:33:01,119 --> 00:33:03,799
than a fantasy at this point in time because absence,

754
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:08,519
you know, some huge way to fill that hole, and

755
00:33:08,559 --> 00:33:10,319
the state has really limited itself. I mean whether in

756
00:33:10,319 --> 00:33:12,960
these constuger amendments rather states really limited its options for

757
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:14,759
filling a hole that big if it were to remove

758
00:33:14,799 --> 00:33:17,839
the property tax. And so that is an ongoing discussion

759
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:20,599
among some people close by where we're recording right now.

760
00:33:20,839 --> 00:33:23,079
And the governor has certainly, you know, expressed interest in this,

761
00:33:23,359 --> 00:33:25,319
But I think the governor has the benefit of not

762
00:33:25,359 --> 00:33:26,960
actually having to try to figure out how to do it.

763
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,039
It's really easy to be for something that you don't

764
00:33:29,039 --> 00:33:31,440
actually have to negotiate and like to iron out the

765
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,240
details on the floor of the house, you know. Yeah,

766
00:33:33,279 --> 00:33:36,799
I'm I'm for free beer and pizza on Friday for everybody. Yeah,

767
00:33:36,839 --> 00:33:37,720
I think you good.

768
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 1: Con Social Amendment, Yeah, what's good.

769
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,119
Speaker 2: Right, let's do it, you know right.

770
00:33:41,119 --> 00:33:43,079
Speaker 1: I'm going to run through all of these sorts briefly

771
00:33:43,119 --> 00:33:44,920
and then we'll get to the big ones, which is

772
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,599
Proposition five tax exemption on animal fee.

773
00:33:48,599 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 2: It's funny to lead with that, right.

774
00:33:50,079 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 1: The Legislaive Bunchet Board has said there will not be

775
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:55,400
a significant loss for that tax exemption for veterans spouses

776
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:58,839
these are people whose spouse has died from a service

777
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:03,240
related cause. They would be exempt. It's approximately three thousand people.

778
00:34:03,799 --> 00:34:06,759
Impact on property tax revenue is not expected to be significant.

779
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:11,760
Proposition nine Inventory and equipment tax exemption. Currently, businesses don't

780
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:13,840
have to pay property taxes on up to twenty five

781
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,760
hundred dollars of inventory or equipment. This would increase that

782
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,800
exemption to one hundred and twenty five thousand dollars. The

783
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:21,840
state would have to help school districts make up the

784
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:25,199
difference of approximately one hundred and ninety three point five

785
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,400
million dollars in twenty twenty seven and more than one

786
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:29,480
hundred million dollars annually after that.

787
00:34:29,519 --> 00:34:31,760
Speaker 2: Well that's a drop in the bucket, sure.

788
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,760
Speaker 1: But you know, proponents say it would contribute economic growth.

789
00:34:36,559 --> 00:34:39,039
People's you know, people on the other side say we

790
00:34:39,119 --> 00:34:43,719
need those property taxes. Proposition ten tax exemption for homes

791
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,239
destroyed by fire. If your house burned down and it's

792
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:49,320
uninhabitable for thirty days, you could apply for a temporarily

793
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,239
adjusted tax bill. They cannot calculate the cost of this

794
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,000
measure because we don't know how many fires there will.

795
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,559
Speaker 2: Be, but we have fires here a lot. So yeah, no,

796
00:34:57,639 --> 00:34:59,159
I mean, I mean also, like this is one of

797
00:34:59,159 --> 00:35:01,239
those things. But like this, this kind of speaks exactly

798
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:03,360
to the challenge with the property tax. Like, you know,

799
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,639
you have the home, it's whatever it is, it's a

800
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:07,719
certain value, it gets burned down into fire, and all

801
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,079
of a sudden, you're still responsible for the value of

802
00:35:10,079 --> 00:35:13,519
this property. That is now unlivable, right, And so this

803
00:35:13,559 --> 00:35:15,079
is the sort of thing that we have to vote

804
00:35:15,119 --> 00:35:17,039
on so that we can kind of have I hate,

805
00:35:17,039 --> 00:35:18,519
I hate to use as a word, but like have

806
00:35:18,599 --> 00:35:19,960
some common sense here. Yeah.

807
00:35:20,159 --> 00:35:22,519
Speaker 1: Yeah. So one is I'm going to do out of

808
00:35:22,599 --> 00:35:25,679
order Proposition seventeen, which is property tax exemption for border

809
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:29,400
security infrastructure. If the state builds border security infrastructure on

810
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,400
your property, you should not have to pay for that

811
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:32,480
increased appraisal.

812
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:34,199
Speaker 2: And I think there's people who are like, what does

813
00:35:34,199 --> 00:35:35,559
that even mean? And I just point out if you

814
00:35:35,599 --> 00:35:37,679
know anything about sort of the twelve hundred miles stretch

815
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,039
there outside of the RGV, a couple you know cities

816
00:35:41,079 --> 00:35:42,840
in between the RGV and L Passo, it's a lot

817
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:45,280
of undeveloped area. And so to the extent that you know,

818
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,559
electricity gets out there, water infrastructure, all of a sudden,

819
00:35:48,559 --> 00:35:51,480
this land could significantly change in its value. It has

820
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:53,559
nothing to do. I know, I've heard people it's even

821
00:35:53,559 --> 00:35:54,960
talking about's like it's it's infrastructure.

822
00:35:55,119 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 1: The state wants to encourage people to give them that

823
00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:59,199
land or to let them get on that land, then

824
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,199
not them have to foot the bill for it. And

825
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:06,280
that is not expected to significantly impact property tax revenue.

826
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,880
The two big ones that are really expected to potentially

827
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:13,440
impact property tax revenue proposition I'm going to do these

828
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:17,280
an opposite order. Proposition thirteen, which is the increased tax

829
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,360
exemption for homeowners. Currently, if you own your house one

830
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,280
hundred thousand dollars up the house's value, you could be

831
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:25,679
exempted from property taxes. This would increase that homestead exemption

832
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:28,920
to one hundred and forty thousand dollars. The owner of

833
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:31,440
a typical Texas home valued at three hundred and two

834
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,639
thousand dollars last year would have saved about four hundred

835
00:36:34,639 --> 00:36:36,920
and ninety dollars on their school property taxes had the

836
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,760
higher exemption been in place, which is expected to cost

837
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,039
the state more than two point seven billion dollars in

838
00:36:42,079 --> 00:36:45,119
general revenue for the next budget cycle at more than

839
00:36:45,199 --> 00:36:48,599
one billion dollars annually after that, and then paired with

840
00:36:48,639 --> 00:36:54,440
that Proposition eleven, which would allow elderly or disabled homeowners

841
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:56,440
to shave off an additional sixty thousand dollars from the

842
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:58,360
tax bill value of their home rather than the ten

843
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,079
thousand dollars on the current exemption, cost a state more

844
00:37:01,079 --> 00:37:03,840
than one point two billion dollars in general revenue, and

845
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,159
then about in the next cycle, and then four undred

846
00:37:06,159 --> 00:37:08,239
and seventy seven million dollars annually after that.

847
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, big numbers, you know. I mean, I think the

848
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:13,480
first thing that sort of stands out about all this

849
00:37:13,679 --> 00:37:16,280
is to say, you know, the homestead exemption has increased

850
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:19,079
like dramatically in the last you know, ten years, and

851
00:37:19,159 --> 00:37:22,639
so I mean, even increase it by forty percent after recently,

852
00:37:22,679 --> 00:37:25,559
just increasing it dramatically is just notable, and it speaks

853
00:37:25,559 --> 00:37:28,559
to the fact that it's not working. I mean, and

854
00:37:28,559 --> 00:37:30,239
I don't mean it's not working since it like you know,

855
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,320
people don't notice it or it's not helpful, but in

856
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:36,679
the sense that it's not it's not seeming to solve

857
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,800
the problem, right, because they have to keep going back

858
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,199
to the well on this, right, And so I think

859
00:37:42,199 --> 00:37:44,880
that's part of the challenge here is that, you know,

860
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,280
in general, you take that four hundred and ninety dollars average,

861
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,559
you know, most people are paying on the monthly and

862
00:37:49,599 --> 00:37:52,280
so they basically divide that up by twelve on their

863
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,639
bill and then it doesn't really move the needle for

864
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:58,519
a lot of right people. It doesn't mean it doesn't

865
00:37:58,519 --> 00:38:00,280
move the needle for some people. But it just doesn't

866
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:00,760
move the needle.

867
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,280
Speaker 1: It's not enough that people will say like I'm good,

868
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:04,480
I'm done here, right.

869
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:05,679
Speaker 2: And this is kind of why, you know, if you

870
00:38:05,679 --> 00:38:07,199
people want to understand a little bit more. I mean,

871
00:38:07,199 --> 00:38:09,079
there's a couple different ways to understand the dimensions of

872
00:38:09,079 --> 00:38:12,000
the fights that take place over how exactly to lower

873
00:38:12,039 --> 00:38:15,880
property taxes and the benefit politically I can if I

874
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:17,719
can just do it. That way of the home set

875
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,719
exemption is that it's instantaneous. Yeah, right, So I think

876
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:23,360
you know, Dan Patrick has been really i would say,

877
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:25,360
the proponent of going after the home set exemption. And

878
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:27,559
Dan Patrick he is probably not in office much longer,

879
00:38:27,599 --> 00:38:31,000
and he's looking to deliver, honestly for the voters in

880
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,039
a way that they're going to feel immediately. The other

881
00:38:33,079 --> 00:38:34,400
piece of this would be to say, well, we want

882
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:38,039
to do something to arrest the rate at which property

883
00:38:38,119 --> 00:38:42,199
tax rates are increasing, right and if anything, maybe decrease

884
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,079
the rates if possible. And so there's different ways to

885
00:38:44,119 --> 00:38:47,880
do that, whether it has to do with directly limiting

886
00:38:48,119 --> 00:38:50,039
you know, the rates, or in place like Austin. We're

887
00:38:50,039 --> 00:38:52,480
doing this now basically saying, you know, if the local

888
00:38:52,599 --> 00:38:55,039
entity increases the revenue that they're generating from these taxes

889
00:38:55,039 --> 00:38:56,559
above a certa amount, then they you know, they have

890
00:38:56,679 --> 00:38:59,280
to go to the voters to basically prove it. And

891
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:01,559
ultimately that's why that's about the slope of the line,

892
00:39:01,599 --> 00:39:04,159
like how fast are the rates increasing? You know, how

893
00:39:04,199 --> 00:39:06,639
fast is your tap property tax burn it increasing? This

894
00:39:06,679 --> 00:39:08,480
is about like can I give you something right now?

895
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:09,320
Speaker 1: Right?

896
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 2: Can I deliver for you? Because I know you're gonna happy? Right?

897
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:14,159
You know, would this do it with another forty thousand

898
00:39:14,199 --> 00:39:15,760
dollars in the home seat exception? You know, do this

899
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,480
for you? And so this really is I think in

900
00:39:18,519 --> 00:39:21,320
some ways about that because I mean to your point

901
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:22,559
you when you say like, oh they're gonna have it's

902
00:39:22,559 --> 00:39:24,119
gonna cost this much, or you're what they're what you're

903
00:39:24,119 --> 00:39:25,719
talking about, they're gon put that money into the public

904
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,960
education system. But this is something I'll just sort of

905
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:31,079
a point I like to make when talking about, you know,

906
00:39:31,159 --> 00:39:33,519
property taxes in public education, is that you know, just

907
00:39:33,559 --> 00:39:35,519
for a brief bit, even though no this is about

908
00:39:35,519 --> 00:39:38,000
directly about public education. You know, when a lot of

909
00:39:38,079 --> 00:39:40,800
state leaders talk about the massive investments the state has

910
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,440
made in public education, over the last you know, five years,

911
00:39:43,679 --> 00:39:47,280
a lot of that massive investment has simply been buying

912
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:50,400
down the property tax reductions they've been giving through the

913
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,280
home set exception. So it's not new money in the system, right,

914
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,639
it's actually just replacing the money that was already there

915
00:39:55,639 --> 00:39:57,760
and bringing the state up to par in most cases.

916
00:39:58,000 --> 00:39:59,920
And so one of the things I think about this,

917
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:03,119
just to sort of sat out, is that ultimately what

918
00:40:03,119 --> 00:40:04,599
it does is it puts the state, you know, more

919
00:40:04,639 --> 00:40:07,159
on the hook for public education funding, which maybe in

920
00:40:07,199 --> 00:40:09,920
the future limits the increase they're going to put into

921
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:11,159
public education funding.

922
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:12,199
Speaker 1: Right, There's only so much money.

923
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:14,679
Speaker 2: There's only so much money. And they've this is property

924
00:40:14,679 --> 00:40:16,880
tax money that they are now putting into public education.

925
00:40:17,199 --> 00:40:18,000
But it's not new.

926
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:20,400
Speaker 1: Money, right, And like obviously we don't have, right, like

927
00:40:21,119 --> 00:40:24,000
endless ways that we can generate more tax revenue.

928
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:26,519
Speaker 2: And fewer and fewer. And I mean, so I just

929
00:40:26,599 --> 00:40:28,960
understand the piece they're about the voter. You know, this

930
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:30,840
is why we constantly see I mean, I say, there's

931
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:33,199
two parts of this. One is just actual need and

932
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:35,440
one is I think politics, which is, you know, elderly

933
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:37,280
homeowners get a lot of breaks now. Part of that

934
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:40,079
is because their incomes are fixed or they don't exist

935
00:40:40,199 --> 00:40:42,400
or whatever. So that makes perfect sense in a fairness perspective.

936
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,000
But also we know that the demographics of the state,

937
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:46,760
the voting patterns of the state, older voters are also

938
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:49,599
overwhelmingly Republican, and so in some ways this is like

939
00:40:49,639 --> 00:40:54,199
a direct benefit to voters who overwhelmingly vote Republican. I

940
00:40:54,199 --> 00:40:55,400
think you know, you look at so it's like a

941
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:57,320
lot of business tax exemptions, oh, one hundred and twenty

942
00:40:57,360 --> 00:40:59,719
five thousand dollars of personal business property. You know. Again,

943
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,000
this is the constituency of the Republican Party, more of

944
00:41:02,039 --> 00:41:05,320
the center right wing of the Republican Party. You know,

945
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:09,719
military spouses, veterans again, another constituency within the Republican Party.

946
00:41:10,119 --> 00:41:12,480
I mean animal feed exemption, which I think you brought up,

947
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,039
which is none of itself. Use almost have to really right,

948
00:41:15,079 --> 00:41:18,360
I mean, people brought this up. Why why animal feeds? Well,

949
00:41:18,599 --> 00:41:22,360
farmers again again, these businesses in particular, like and I

950
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:24,199
would say that when you think about the business taxisms

951
00:41:24,199 --> 00:41:26,159
and the animal feed that is probably an effort to

952
00:41:26,559 --> 00:41:30,039
potentially lower some prices maybe, you know, again speaking to

953
00:41:30,079 --> 00:41:32,840
this broader concern, but overall, it's hard not to look

954
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:34,079
at this and sort of go, you know, these are

955
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,199
constituencies here in Texas. And then you look at something

956
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:40,079
like the ban on securities transactions with Props six, and

957
00:41:40,119 --> 00:41:41,719
you know that the Texas is trying to set up

958
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:44,639
its own stock exchange, and it's sort of an interesting

959
00:41:44,679 --> 00:41:46,559
thing to say, hey, you're gonna set the stock and

960
00:41:46,559 --> 00:41:47,880
you say, look, maybe it's a good idea to say,

961
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:50,239
Texas isn't going to tax any you know, securities transactions

962
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:52,039
is a great place to get on the exchange, which

963
00:41:52,079 --> 00:41:56,119
makes totally total sense. At the same time, that's a

964
00:41:56,199 --> 00:41:59,199
huge potential source of revenue that is just off the table.

965
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:01,199
Speaker 1: Right And it's a constituitional so it's not saying, you know,

966
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:03,960
for the first couple of years, will revisit this new

967
00:42:04,639 --> 00:42:08,000
new part of the constitution. And to jump ahead, that

968
00:42:08,039 --> 00:42:10,960
is Poposition six that prevent the state from creating new

969
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:14,679
taxes on securities transactions such as stock trading, because that's

970
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:17,519
the other category of amendments, right is we also have

971
00:42:17,639 --> 00:42:20,719
proposition too, which is would ban the state from taxing

972
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:25,360
people on profits or potential profits from capital assets. Security

973
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:27,559
tax ban, and then the inheritance tax ban which, as

974
00:42:27,639 --> 00:42:30,320
you said, we don't currently have an inheritance tax. But

975
00:42:31,519 --> 00:42:34,280
you know, all of these are you know, ways to

976
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:37,199
both restrict the state from taxing in the future reduce

977
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,960
the taxes people are currently facing. But things do still

978
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:41,599
cost money.

979
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:43,559
Speaker 2: They still costs money. And I'd add one other think

980
00:42:43,559 --> 00:42:46,000
of that list. It also is reminding in particular Republican

981
00:42:46,039 --> 00:42:49,199
voters of what they get with Republican state leadership, right,

982
00:42:49,559 --> 00:42:52,199
they get to codify into the constitution a ban on

983
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:54,960
all these types of taxes that Republicans of all stripes

984
00:42:55,039 --> 00:42:58,840
well before railed against for decades. And so even if

985
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:01,679
it's not any threat of happening here, right, some of

986
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:02,800
these are just expressive.

987
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:06,239
Speaker 1: Right. It's just saying, you know, if a tornado swept

988
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:10,800
through and political wins changed entirely and Democrats won every

989
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:14,480
seat in every office, you still couldn't do an inheritance tax,

990
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:17,320
right without getting two thirds of a vote and the

991
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:18,440
vote of the people.

992
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 2: Which would be tricky. Right.

993
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:23,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, So you know a lot of this, As you said,

994
00:43:23,679 --> 00:43:27,239
overall turn out for these elections tends to be very low. Yeah,

995
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:31,679
they I believe, like nationally there is data that shows

996
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:37,440
like they do tend to pass, right, like when issues

997
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:38,159
go to voters.

998
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:41,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean just to say, the legislature doesn't usually

999
00:43:41,679 --> 00:43:44,400
punt an issue to the voters. Sometimes sometimes every once

1000
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:46,159
in a while, there's something that's got a certain amount

1001
00:43:46,159 --> 00:43:48,239
of you know, political jews, and it's and you know,

1002
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:50,719
you twist it and your train say, you know, let's

1003
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:53,199
let's put this to the voters and do it. But

1004
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:55,119
for the most part, if something's on here, it's because

1005
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:58,559
the legislature thinks that it will pass, right, right, They

1006
00:43:58,559 --> 00:44:02,400
think they have the momentum or I mean just honestly,

1007
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:04,480
you don't put these up to fail. That's the nature

1008
00:44:04,519 --> 00:44:07,000
of the two thirds rule, right, And so there is

1009
00:44:07,039 --> 00:44:09,360
an expectation that most of these should pass, but because

1010
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:13,559
of the low turnout, it's a little bit less certain.

1011
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah. Absolutely. Those are the seventeen cons social amendments

1012
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:21,119
that that voters will have a chance to consider this election.

1013
00:44:21,559 --> 00:44:25,599
Early voting is already underway. We actual election day is

1014
00:44:25,599 --> 00:44:30,920
an early November. You may also have propositions and maybe

1015
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:33,599
even candidates for local office on your ballot.

1016
00:44:34,119 --> 00:44:35,679
Speaker 2: Special election in Houston.

1017
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:38,400
Speaker 1: There's a special election CD eighteen, which we asked for

1018
00:44:38,679 --> 00:44:41,119
Gabby Barnbaum to explain last week and we all got

1019
00:44:41,119 --> 00:44:42,119
so tangled up we had to.

1020
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,119
Speaker 2: It's very breath It is a little yes, but it's confused.

1021
00:44:45,159 --> 00:44:45,679
Speaker 1: It's confusing.

1022
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:48,039
Speaker 2: I had a conversation with someone about this yesterday. There's

1023
00:44:48,079 --> 00:44:49,880
a lot of pieces here.

1024
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:52,679
Speaker 1: Yes, but definitely, you know, find out what is on

1025
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:56,639
your ballot, turnout and vote. Got a big proposition here

1026
00:44:56,679 --> 00:44:59,400
in Austin that we will not get into. But a

1027
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:01,760
lot I've had some we don't have to. I've had

1028
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:04,159
some door knocking in my neighborhood. I'll tell you that.

1029
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:08,639
But yeah, that is the trip Cast for this week.

1030
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:10,639
Thank you Joshua for joining us.

1031
00:45:10,639 --> 00:45:11,719
Speaker 2: My pleasure, thanks for having me.

1032
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:14,280
Speaker 1: You can find the trip Cast anywhere you find your

1033
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:17,639
podcast or on YouTube. Our producers are Rob and Chris

1034
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:19,480
and we will be back next week.