Speaker 1: Welcome to Way did you talk today? The gold standard
of sports betting shows where we talked to talk and
walk the walk. It is Thursday. We got Sweet sixteen action,
we got MLB. I think I think it's safe to
say today is opening day. We had one game out
of the way last night, but it is opening day,
so Dan, we got a couple of guests here. We
got a lot to break down. What do we got
on today's show?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Joanni degree gonna kick us off. We got him
right over here because I left him on the screen.
So Johnnie will talk to you in just a second
here as he's gonna break down what steam we're seeing
here in MLB action.
Speaker 1: Man, I'm pumped.
Speaker 3: I got the Odds logic screen over here.
Speaker 2: We got first pitches coming in about an hour here,
so opening day is here, so why Yes, we're as
pumped as you are here, folks. So we're gonna talk
about what steam we've seen in MLB action. And yes, folks,
don't think we forgot Sweet sixteen action happening tonight? What
should you be betting for today and tomorrow? What's Yanni
seeing there as well? Joe's got you covered, that's right,
Joe Ranari Texas and Purdue Illinois and Houston. He's also
going to talk the d Backs versus the Dodgers, because
everybody's wondering the Dodgers gonna get the one oh five wins. Well,
we're rooting not is what we'll say. But a lot
of Dodgers talk throughout the season, I'm sure. But we'll
talk their opening day game here against the d Backs.
I might even throw you a baseball play today, Andy,
I got I'm looking at this Odds Logic screen. I
think we might have our first money line play the season.
Speaker 4: On opening Day.
Speaker 2: So we'll talk about that here in a little bit,
and you'll take you all around the world. We still
got a baseball on boxing, Andy, let's get into it.
Speaker 1: Brother, Dan's got a baseball play. Don't you threaten me
with a good time. Let's go. It's It's okay.
Speaker 2: You gotta have some kind of baseball play on opening day, right, Yeah?
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: We got a prop that's up at Sports Memo. We're
nine and one on Sports Memo plays, So we got
a prop that apparently anything I put up at Sports
Memo is just golden for whatever reason if it ain't
broke don't fix it. Let's bring in Yannie. Let's start
talking about it. Yannie. It's opening day here we go
for the I can't believe.
Speaker 5: You just said that, because I have to jump in.
I just put up a baseball play at sports Memo.
I upgraded. I sent out the steam sheet and it
had like seven baseball plays, eight college basketball. And if
I upgrade something later in the day, I always go
back in and let them know this became a premium
so they get extra premiums in the steam sheet. And
I just upgraded a move to premium and I put
it at excuse me at sports Memo because I have
a run there too. I've won five straight. I'm six
to oho and one the last seven, and I think
like eight one and one the last eight to Oho
to one, like.
Speaker 4: The last nine.
Speaker 5: So I'm trying to stay a little perfect there, and
I like it's an early game, so I'm like, I'm
putting it over there to joy to keep that uh
streak alive. So that's funny. I said that we take
pride in hitting those seven dollars plays there, so pay attention.
That ows for the betters out there, because I know
I just hearing you say that I do the exact
same thing.
Speaker 3: I'm selective what I put over that.
Speaker 5: Don't put stuff every day, but I do try to
put gold when I do fire.
Speaker 1: Yeah, what do you got for baseball today? I mean,
pitches start here pretty soon. I know you got to.
There's got to be a lot of action.
Speaker 5: Everyone's exciting, indeed, indeed, I mean we're it's such a
busy day.
Speaker 3: Man.
Speaker 5: Forget that the Sweet sixteen, which is going to get
the bulk of the attention, the bulk of the action.
But you got NBA, you got NHL, you got Major
League Baseball. I mean, there's just so many boards and
markets available to us that there's going to be in
efficiencies when you couple in all the props in the
volume that they now attract. The books are forced now
to put so much more attention in those markets, which
now I believe has made sides in totals even less
efficient in a lot of the bigger markets because the
props are attracting so much of the action, kind of
like we've learned with NFL in the playoffs in Super Bowl,
where the props are now more than half of the volume,
so they have to focus a lot of their attention.
Speaker 4: There.
Speaker 5: Here's some of the early moves in Major League Baseball.
And again as lineups get confirmed, as limits grow, that's
where you start to see.
Speaker 3: More and more legit moves.
Speaker 5: But here's what we got early nine oh one over
six and a half and seven Pittsburgh and the Mets,
nine oh three Washington plus one ninety five and the
under eight at minus one, fifteen, nine oh six Arizona
and the Dodgers under nine at minus one ten. Couple
dogs for you, nine oh seven Minnesota plus one thirty
nine thirteen White Sox plus one sixty five and then
nine twenty Philadelphia minus one forty five and one that
just came. Where's that nine sixteen when nine sixteen ye
had just came in San Diego at plus one twenty
or better. That's what we're looking at in MLB right now.
Speaker 1: Did you did you fire any futures? I mentioned this
to you me and the team decided to fire. It's
a four percent play on the under one oh four
and a half most wins by a team that was
our only future that we put out. You got any
win win totals that you liked.
Speaker 3: I didn't do it.
Speaker 5: And the truth is I just don't have the confidence
in the source that I was getting all of my
MLB win totals. I think the market caught up with
his model.
Speaker 3: I just keep it.
Speaker 5: Really, I was using his for when I jumped on
Wade you talk at twenty seventeen, and I used his
prop his every year those baseball futures, and again come
September October we'd get a windfall of cash, which was
perfect time in for football. But over the last two
seasons that didn't happen. But more importantly, when I went
back and looked at the work, he wasn't getting CLV,
and to me, that's a problem.
Speaker 3: He's supposed to be ahead of the market.
Speaker 5: Again, if you're getting me closing line value and you're losing,
that's fine. I can live with that because in a
short term that's gonna happen. You can have the edge
in ten straight bets and go oh and ten. That
will happen, but it will reflect somewhere that the edge
you did have the edge, And if I don't see
that in the closing line value, then I just can't
trust that source. And he did send me what he has,
I'm gonna obviously book it. And keep it and see
how he does. But once again, I'm glad I didn't
use them for subscribers because I'm just not seeing the
closing line value on his plays and I just don't
have confidence when that's the case.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the markets are always adjusting, and if
we don't just our handicapping style, we end up a
little bit behind E. We're seeing that multiple sports were
talking about UFC earlier.
Speaker 3: Exactly what it it happens, Man, it happens.
Speaker 1: Yeah, only three NBA games, a lot of NHL games
are Is this this kind of one of those days
where everyone's so focused on baseball and NC DOUBLEA that
we're kind of overlooking some of the other sports that
we got. What are you seeing in the in those.
Speaker 5: Great great great call there, because that's exactly what's happening.
Speaker 3: And look at this.
Speaker 5: They got down on five oh one over two twenty
nine and a half, Sacramento, Orlando, five oh three, New
Orleans plus five and a half and five and five
oh five under two twenty three and a half, Nicks
and Charlotte, and then in NHL.
Speaker 3: Usually not busy in.
Speaker 5: NHL, but here you go five bets that they fired
because again, all the attentions on the Sweet sixteen to
Tampa Bay minus two seventy five tells you Sharp's do
lay chalk if they think the true line should be
minus three twenty the lay two seventy five all day.
Speaker 3: Don't let anybody tell you different.
Speaker 5: Eleven Minnesota minus one forty one forty five, Game fourteen,
Saint Louis minus one thirty, Game fifteen under six at
plus one oh five, Colorado, Winnipeg in Game twenty four
under six and a half at plus one oh five,
Edmonton and Vegas. So yeah, definitely some NHL action, some
NBA action, and MLB is getting a lot of sharp
money because of all the attention on the Sweet sixteen.
But with that said, obviously they're Sweet sixteen moves. We
talked about a couple Sharp's got out immediately ahead of
the market. Now the key is what do they do today?
Over the next four hours to six hours, We're going
to see this play out because again, most of the
recreational betters aren't betting the Sweet sixteen till today, and
they're probably not up firing at nine am Pacific time.
As the day goes on, that money will start to
get to the window. Once it does the line, the
oddsmakers book makers forgive me will be forced to reflect
that action based on their risk as it starts to
pile up.
Speaker 3: That opened the door for some value.
Speaker 5: And that's when we get the conclude and confirm what
the sharp sides and totals really are, because again, some
of this is getting ahead of the market when the
market is so overwhelming compared to sharp money, Like it's
just the influx of recreational money. It's like you can't
even see the sharp money coming in. It's just so
minuscule compared to the bulk of the action, which is
from you know, recreational accounts tonight, Tomorrow, Saturday, and Sunday.
So it's a beautiful time to make some money over
these next four days.
Speaker 1: You just saying the sharps are gonna wait until closer
to the tip off before.
Speaker 5: That, Yeah, they've bet everything early. They bet they got
down early. What they got out ahead of the market.
You know, they got down on their dukes, they got
down on Arkansas plus nine, they got down on Texas
plus eights. But again I wasn't surprised to see that.
The thing is, are they now going to lay the
six and a half with Duke. Are they now going
to come back the other way and lay like he
saw Purdue get bet yesterday. So that's what the key
today is seeing. Are there any moves early that was
just the manipulation of the market or getting out ahead
of it and legit stuff coming in late, or you know,
it was that the move early and now it's a
decision on whether to take, you know, the second or
third number. So that's what I've been seeing, and I
expect movement as we approach tip off. I don't think
the lines are going to say static as they are.
We'll start seeing movements over the next couple hours, for sure,
on sides and totals.
Speaker 1: Let's move to UFC. We've got a pretty it's an
okay card. It's it's it's not too bad. I got
to tell you. I just love Joe Piper in the
main event at plus money against Adasanya. I love fading
these guys that were at the peak of their career,
and then it's just once you work that hard to
get to the top and you stay there for that long,
once it starts to go, it just goes. I think
Adasani has lost his lost his fastball lost his durability.
The only way I see him winning is kind of
outpointing Piper, and maybe Piper gets a little bit tired,
but I see all the advantages going Piper's way and
money keeps coming in. On Izzy, what are you seeing there?
Speaker 5: I agree with you, and this is the time. Do
not fear betting dogs have extra conviction if you're betting favorites.
I sound like a broken record, But favorites are so
far ahead right now in MMA, in the UFC, particularly
that unless the playing field has changed, meaning with the
move to paramount, you know, and even towards the end
of the ESPN deal where they had to have so
many cards, that was the deal. They had to have
a card every every week. Is parody no longer key
in the UFC if it's still If there's still parody,
if there's still competition, then we're sitting at an outlier
right now where favorites are so far ahead, we should
see a regression towards the dogs, Like we're not gonna
get eighty percent favorites over the course of twenty twenty six.
So for for this now to come back to around
that sixty five percent average long term we're gonna have
to see a higher rate of underdogs cash over.
Speaker 3: You know the long term.
Speaker 5: Now is that going to be over the next three events,
five events, ten events, or this next event, But it
is going to happen because we know if you go
over the last one thousand, two thousand and five thousand,
any statistically significant sample size of UFC bets, you're gonna
get close to sixty five percent favorites, thirty four percent underdogs,
and one percent no contest draws.
Speaker 3: That's what you're gonna get. It's been like that forever.
Speaker 5: Now if it's going to continue like that, don't be
afraid to bet these dogs. And I absolutely agree with
you there. I like the honest the pipers signed there.
I am even looking at Grosso in the Komane event.
I haven't bet that because the barber line continues to climb.
I already liked the winner of the first to win
the second because historically that's what's happened more than six
and a half out of ten times. I know this
first fight happened five or six years ago, but that's
why we're getting extra line value because that closing line
with Barbara's minus one thirty now she's up to minus
one eighty one ninety even though she lost that fight,
and that's just based on recency bias. Barbara coming in
on a hot streak, Brosso coming in and having lost
three straight. But if you look at Grosso, she fought
Valentino Sechenko. If you look at her last four fights,
three of those were with Shipchenko, she actually won one
of those. Again, I don't think Barber would fare all
that well against that version of Valentina either. So being
able to get Grosso at this kind of plus money
win or lose again, I think it's good bet. There's
no way she doesn't win this fight four and ten times.
So you give me plus one fifty. I'm getting the
best of it, and right now I could get one
fifty five easily one sixty. So I think Grosso's I
just talked myself into an automatic bet.
Speaker 3: I'm on Grosso too.
Speaker 1: I like listen, I'll go through the list of dogs
that I think could win. Julian Rosa fighting a contender series,
guy Belgarui, he's got the length to make it.
Speaker 5: A short guy that Nick Koliks, who you know, yep,
started MMA odds and stuff like that that I do
the show with the UFC with that's that was his
best bet. Belgoory, you just confirmed it for me. I'm
gonna bet that now too.
Speaker 1: Kyle Nelson, he's plus money over Terrence McKinny. If Terrence
mcinny doesn't win in the first three minutes, he's toasted. Moussaiah.
If he gets takedowns, he could cash as a plus
two forty. Lance Gibson, are we trusting the chain of
Chase Hooper these days?
Speaker 6: Not me? Uh?
Speaker 1: The interesting one is Martine to Burro. I don't understand
why he's an underdog against Tyrol Fortune. He was supposed
to fight somebody else. They they pulled out with an injury,
so they pulled up the the dumpster pile of the
corpse of Tyrol Fortune.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 1: Two fights ago, he fought a guy that's fifty two
years old. That's who he's been fighting. Now he's now
he's in the UFC, fought a fifty two year.
Speaker 5: Old and Yanis Yannas opened as the favorite. He's now
the underdog. I Lovelicas likes Yannis too. He liked he
gave me out Yanas on our show and Belgory bey
guy all right.
Speaker 1: Before I let you go. Andrew wants to know if
there's a value on a one seed to win it
all at minus one seventy, So the prop is will
a one seed win it all?
Speaker 5: Yes, yes, yes, yeah, I would lay up the two
hundred on that. Actually I thought the line would be.
I thought they would juice it up to two fifty
so you.
Speaker 3: Can't at it.
Speaker 5: But if he's get one sixty five, I would bet
that for sure, because I do think it comes from
Duke or Arizona. They're heads above everybody else. They really
are the best two teams right now. I have Duke,
so I'm kind of biased. I'd like to see Duke
get it done, but that is the one team that
I'm really afraid of is Arizona because they did have
the tougher strength of schedule and they are offensively top three.
But I have the defensive edge with Duke, so I'm
okay there. But I do think a number one gets
it based on who's who's left now. Like again, Purdue's
gonna be scary if they get past Texas. There's a
couple of scary teams like that, but Michigan could be
scary if they get past Alabama, Tennessee, even if they
get by Iowa State or the latter Iowa State. But
I just think the cream will rise to the top.
And with still having what we still have three of
the four number ones in there having to lay anything
less than minus two hundred, where the break evens two
out of three, I do think that's plus ev I do.
Speaker 1: All right, what do you have up for everyone on
this Thursday? All right?
Speaker 5: I have my Thursday package up that's tonight's Sweet sixteen.
I have two plays in there. You'll see what I'm
talking about. It kind of broke a play up in half.
Another place coming up with in the next sixty minutes.
Speaker 3: Which is a four percent.
Speaker 5: Just confirm that I have my Friday package up four
to Sweet sixteen with a five percent. I've only fired
four five percents the entire college basketball season. We cash
three of them. The only one we lost was North
Carolina up nineteen with six minutes left, So we should
be sitting at four and oh, I've been very selective
with those. We have one tomorrow that goes that's warranted.
In fact, I have two in there. I have a
five percent and a four percent with a bonus you'll
see what I'm talking about when you get that Patge.
I have the UFC package up as well, two premiums
in there, two more going in today, and over at
sports Memo we have the early Major League Baseball play
that I gave out to subscribers as well, trying to
stay perfect over there over our last seven or so bets,
and finally free soccer at wager Talk premium plays I
sent out two more, one in Columbia, one in Ecuador,
I believe, so always check out the free picks at
wager Talk because I flowed up the soccer, the table tennis,
all that smaller market stuff so that you guys could
bury your books with it too, because I get pissed
off they don't take that shit from us, So I
wish everybody could bet theo bury their books with it.
You know, the DraftKings, the MGMs, the Caesars that we
can't bet into. So take those soccer bets and bury
them with it. Long term, they're gonna cash more than
they trash. That's just the bottom line.
Speaker 3: So best of luck.
Speaker 5: Whether you follow our fade this weekend, we're looking to
make some money and continue up for twenty twenty six.
That's the goal. And again thank you to all who've
partnered with me for this year. Steam Room will be Saturday,
so until then, let's just do some damage.
Speaker 1: All right, Yanni the Greek getting us ready for Sweet
sixteen and Thursday. Thank you, Yanni, good luck. I have
a big day, Dan one and one. Yesterday we lost
on Aaron and Judge on his walk, but we hit
our bigger play in the NBA that was it was
a late game. Thank god he hit it in the
first half so we didn't have to stay up and
exactly the game. Andrew brings it up to why are
we starting college games at like ten to fifteen?
Speaker 2: I mean, people are people on the West coast Katti too, right,
But now that I'm back on the East coast, you know,
I am like, what are what are we doing here?
Ten ten to fifteen starts?
Speaker 4: You know?
Speaker 2: When it was seven fifteen, sure it made sense, but
no one on the West coast even knows the game's happening.
Speaker 3: So why why are we catering to them on the
West coast here?
Speaker 4: Man?
Speaker 1: Come on, Oh, it's really bad. It's really bad. I
don't understand these league games. When my senior year, when
I was in college. I you went to the championship
game and we got we got to the bar at
eight am, and the game didn't start till like nine
forty five. It was six and a half hours before.
It was just like like you get to like seven o'clock.
Speaker 2: You've been told it was a fun time watching that game.
It is essentially what you're what you're telling me there
and you've been told it was awesome. You had a
great it was it was one of the best days.
It's one of the most memorable days of my life.
I like you put it on. You put in a
full shift.
Speaker 4: That was it.
Speaker 2: That was a double shift at the factory. You pulled there, Andy,
Well well done.
Speaker 1: Well done. I'm I'm so appreciative that I was in
college when my school made it to a championship game.
Like it was just like seeing him go through the
go through the tournament, final four, then championship game was
just it was it was awesome. It was really really memorable.
Speaker 2: Yea, Andy, we got we got Joe coming on here,
sweet sixteen. We'll be talking with him, getting his thoughts.
Big day in Houston, by the way, he's gonna talk
that Houston game. They also have Angels and UH and
the the Astros who were playing. We had the Houston
Open this weekend. They're hosting games there in Houston, so UH,
big time in the in h town. But before we
do that, Andy, you know, people are looking at Sweet sixteen,
they're looking in at MLB. What's our team rocking with tonight,
because guys, there is plenty of other action in quiet
time in the book where everyone's focusing on Opening Day
and Sweet sixteen, Andy and the team. We got some
some great plays coming folks as well.
Speaker 1: Seth nailed it. We got five percent starts play starts
here in a couple hours. It's half priced, so if
you guys want to jump on board with a half
price starts play that is up boxing five percent boxing
play just went in. We've got golf that's rolling right now.
We just put in a lacrosse play as well, and
we do have a baseball prop that is up over
at Sports Memo. We're running the thirty day special. It's
one hundred dollars off, gets you down from two ninety
nine down to one ninety nine. And yeah, college basketball
is wrapping up. Guess what, there's a million other sports.
NASCAR Formula one. I know it's not the sexiest sports
to bet on, but what is sexy winning. We're up
to thirty seven units profit. I wanted to be at
thirty units by the end of March. We've already passed that.
So we get a few of these home and we're
way way ahead of schedule. So you want to be
part of the winning in the Shadows family, like Seth,
like for some of these other some of the other
guys that taking their time and money to invest in us,
jump on board.
Speaker 6: Man.
Speaker 1: It is a It's a great club to be a
part of when you're betting on these sports and cashing
because the books are paying attention to baseball, they're not
paying attention to lacrosse, they're not paying attention to darts,
They're not paying attention to these other sports. So wt
dot Buzz, slash al, that's where the website is. And
you're not just getting my plays, you're getting Dan's, you're
getting yawns, you're getting gyms. So that's over at wager
talk dot com. Yeah, we're rocking the five percent darts
play right now, and then it's a light day in NBA,
so I think we're going to pass on NBA props.
We've been on a nice run on NBA props, so
great day to kind of take off that. So we'll
cash in these sports, and we'll cash in MLB, and
let's bring in Joe, cash in NC double A.
Speaker 4: Back to the home base.
Speaker 2: Baby, How did the New York Did you end up
having a drive or did you Were you able to
get your ask back down to Florida on a plane?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 6: No, I was saying, thank god, I was close though,
you know, APIs was on speed dial.
Speaker 4: Don't kid yourself. I was ready to go.
Speaker 6: But no, it worked out and it was funny, funny,
but I mean it was twenty four hours later. If
something would have happened, I'd still be at Laguania right
now because that's where I flew out him, and then
that whole thing gets shut down from.
Speaker 4: It was knock on one.
Speaker 6: It all worked out and I got to defrost, so
I got eighteen holes in and I'm ready to roll now.
Speaker 3: I love to see it all you had to do.
Speaker 2: Get back on the links and now we're locked and loaded,
ready to go. I mean, Joe, this is for the
stuff that you cap. I mean, this is like the
Joe rniary sports equinox because we have basketball going on.
College basketball has been great, and now something that's near
and dear to your heart is obviously what happens on
the diamond. So I say we start there. It's opening day,
so we'll kick it off here with your thoughts. Everyone
wants to talk Dodgers. It's what will happen all year long,
So d Backs Dodgers is how we'll be kicked it
off tonight. I believe that one's around like eight thirtieth,
So how are you looking to play this one? It's
Yamamoto and Gallon is what we're seeing in this one.
Speaker 6: Let me just first address, you know, And he said
something interesting, you know, he said, what hell's more sexy
than actually winning, no matter what the sport is?
Speaker 4: Right? Well, you know what else is sexy?
Speaker 6: Taking a frigging nap so you can stay up until
ten o'clock to watch a sleek sixteen game?
Speaker 4: Are you guys frigging hitting me here? Really? Can't I
do a morning show? Guys? I am up at four
o'clock every I still manage to make up at ten
o'clock and watch.
Speaker 6: It's fair for you guys out of your mind? Like
it happens once a year. It's March Madness. Get your
ass in, take a nap, go to the car, lay down,
whatever you gotta do. Make sure you can handle staying
up till ten o'clock to watch as.
Speaker 4: Honest and March Madness game mine. Who is honest? Joe?
I appreciate that.
Speaker 6: I appreciate that these as you guys my word new Listen,
there are some baseball games I would absolutely not stay
up to watch. But shout out to Netflix by the way,
for showing us that they have absolutely no idea what
the hell they're doing when it comes to actually broadcasting
live Major League Baseball games. If I see John Cena
one more time on an ad, I'm gonna throw up.
Between now and at the end of the season, I'm
done with Netflix. But this game tonight here with the
Dodgers and the Diamondbacks. The way I approach baseball and
I always have is I try to take out as
much variance early in the season as possible, so you'll see.
Speaker 4: Me looking at a lot of first five bets.
Speaker 6: I want nothing to do with bullpens until we can
get enough data on them at some point, usually right
around the end of May.
Speaker 4: Beginning of June.
Speaker 6: I think all of the value is usually with starting pitching,
right because we know what we're gonna get from starting pitchers.
We don't know what we're gonna get a lot of
times with that, we know the pitchers are ahead of
the game as far as hitters go. This early on,
a lot of warm places this afternoon, by the way,
for opening opening days, so we might get a few
more runs than we anticipate.
Speaker 4: But with this game, you've got two pitchers that.
Speaker 6: I don't think in spring training went over seventy pitches,
and that's.
Speaker 4: Kind of the thing right now. Early on in the season.
You've got guys.
Speaker 6: Like Yavamodo and Zach Gallen. They're they're not throwing them out.
They're not going seven innings, and if they are going
seven innings, then they're probably throwing a no hitter or
one hitter, and you know there are twelve pitches an
ning and they're out. That kind of thing there. We
saw Matt Screed go more than five innings yesterday simply
because the well, the giants can't take water if they
fall out of a boat. But you kind of have
that same situation here. It feels like where yeah, the
Dodgers are easy play, but not at this price. I
tend to think that both pitchers are gonna be interesting here.
I the outs props is really the way I like
in this game. I think Yamamoto under fifteen and a
half outs. I think it's same with Zach Gallen. Zach
Allen had a lot of trouble.
Speaker 4: With lefties last year.
Speaker 6: I don't know that he corrected that in the offseason,
certainly not from what I saw in spring training.
Speaker 4: So we could get some runs here.
Speaker 6: I mean, the wins only blown out a little bit
of here out in LA, but we know that lineup
of a Dodgers more than capable of putting up some
runs here.
Speaker 4: I think they do put up some runs.
Speaker 6: I do think that both pitchers might have been shorter
than expected evening, so I don't see either going five innings,
and we're being honest, I think both teams probably scored
some runs early first five over and under on the
outsprop here for both starting pitchers in this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that a lot of ways to attack
that game. So there you go, some opening day action
for you opening night.
Speaker 4: I guess we could call it there.
Speaker 2: Joe, let's talk about these sweet sixteen games. Here we'll
kick it off Illinois and Houston. I know this one's
the later game, but it's the one I'm a little
bit more intrigued to hear your thoughts on two and
a half basically painted maybe a little bit of three
out there, one to two in the marketplace. So we're
sitting two and a half and this total is right
around one for.
Speaker 3: Super intreating Houston.
Speaker 2: You would think would just continue to roll here, but
I'm wondering, do we have a barking dog?
Speaker 1: What do you think, Joe.
Speaker 4: Listen?
Speaker 6: Styles make fights right, and here we go. We've got
defense versus offense right. Illinois not a whole lot of
defense here.
Speaker 4: They don't turn anybody over. They're very good with the
with the.
Speaker 6: Monster dudes they got in the middle there from the
Eastern European crew. They don't give up a lot of
second chance opportunities, not a lot of second chance points
for teams.
Speaker 4: But they're not out there.
Speaker 6: Swatting guys left and right, turning the ball over and
getting extra possessions. Illinois is all about winning the math,
and that means can they get up more shots? Can
they take more threes than the other team. If they do,
they win. They win a lot of these games. The
problem with Illinois is that we've seen them lose twice
to Wisconsin, UCLA, Michigan, and Michigan State. And the formula
seems to be push them around, be physical with them,
take them out of the comfort zone, can test their
shots from the outside.
Speaker 4: And if they don't fall, there's a problem.
Speaker 6: Well, they're taking on a Houston team that is tougher
and better in a lot of those categories than any
of those teams that have beaten Illinois already this year.
That is the path to beat Illinois. Push them around,
be more physical, get in their face. That is the
recipe for it. Ultimately, though, I think we're likely going
to get more points than people thinking this game. We
know Illinois is going to try to win the You
know the math battle three is more than two. If
I take up more shots, if I make enough of them,
I'm going to beat you.
Speaker 4: Houston. Greinham theory.
Speaker 6: It's a little risky, it's a little variance involved, but
this wouldn't shock me. I think the whistle is gonna
play a big part in what happens in this game.
From a total perspective. But as of right now, I
know everyone's thinking Houston and an under. I would not
be shocked if this game goes over a lot. I
think one forty is a little bit lower. Listen, Houston
has not lost a game.
Speaker 4: You're ready for it.
Speaker 6: Nine times since twenty eighteen. Have the Houston Couvers played
in the city of Houston and lost just nine games
since twenty eighteen. Here, they love playing at home, they
love playing in front of their fans. Illinois has got
a score to win. And if you think they can
win this game, this game is going over. I think
the number is a little bit too low.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 3: Wow, love that breakdown.
Speaker 2: And yet you don't want to be holding an underticket
when the foul Polsa starts at the end of the game,
when you when you're trying to cling on, uh, you
want to be a dog to get at home. Push
the pace is what Joe says. Joe before we talk
Texas and Purdue. What do you got locked and loaded?
I know I alluded to when you first hopped on here.
I mean this is this is the Ranery equinox. So
I know clients are yours will be having all kinds
of action. What do they find over at your page.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're a lot.
Speaker 6: I mean we've been locked here since Monday, as a
matter of fact, when the Lions came out here. We've
got a bunch of games into Sweet sixteen. I got
a four percent today in the Sweet sixteen. I got
a four percent tomorrow in the Sweet sixteen. But I
got a couple of other plays in these four games
here tonight that I absolutely love that you can get
over at wager at Talktown. CON's been a hell of
a March madness fourteen and six right now in March madness,
so we're really starting to see really seeing it well here,
especially with the n T Don't forget we got another
tournament coming up here. I don't even know people realize.
We don't think college man small is coming on an end.
We got another tournament about the start as well, so
plenty of college basketball.
Speaker 4: UH.
Speaker 6: And even though it's a short night in UH in
the NBA, we do have another NBA Top play and
available because one of these games has got way too
much value to pass off here on the car tonight,
and we kick off Major League Baseball when our first
top play of the season available over at my page
on wagrotalk dot com.
Speaker 2: Oo wt dot buzz Backslash j R. And yeah, if
you if you think it's over, folks, how about the
Crown Tournament.
Speaker 4: Let's go.
Speaker 3: We're not done with college basketball boys.
Speaker 4: Let's get let's see Colorado for themselves. Let's go. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, the guy who's fourteen and six rocking in this tournament,
he's got two plays loaded that have been loaded since
Lines dropped, those plays that he probably likes quite a bit.
Speaker 3: Go check him out.
Speaker 2: But Joe, real quick on the way out, Texas herdue.
This one really is painted seven and a half is
what you're seeing. Total one forty seven and a half.
Similar thoughts in this one. If you if your dog
wants to get at home, do they want to keep
the score low because Purdue, when they get hot from distance, man,
they can shoot the lights out. I don't know if
you want to get in the track race with them.
Speaker 4: No, you don't.
Speaker 6: And this could be another one of these games that
I think very much how this game is whistled is
going to determine, certainly from the total perspective, what happens here.
Purdue doesn't foul an awful lot Texas lives at the
free throw line. They've been top ten a whole a
year long in free throw shots.
Speaker 4: They love getting the foul line.
Speaker 6: The problem is they love sending people to the foul
line just as much as they love taking foul shots. Here,
So I think technical great story for Texas man, I mean,
Sean Miller.
Speaker 4: They were dead in the water.
Speaker 6: How they managed to get to the Sweet sixteen, kudos,
but an eleven seed with a fifteen million dollar payroll
doesn't to me. They underperformed all year long. They've got
the talent. It's a good team. But I think at
this point, look at what Purdue is done. Since they
had that losing streak where everyone's stuck a fork in them,
they're like, oh, goddess, team is terrible. They've won six
in a row, and they've won six in a row
for one reason and one reason only. It's because their
defense has shown up. They've been top thirty in the
country during this six game winning streak. You get defense,
you get Braydon Smith out there, you get other guys
making shots. They're playing their best basketball right now, and
they've been here and done this. What is this the
third Sweet Sixteen in a row? They always make it
to the Elite eight here. I think the slipper is
you know we're about to get a pumpkin again here
with Texas. I think Purdue not only wins this game,
I got them winning by double digits. Guys. It's been
a nice run for Texas, but this is where Purdue
separates itself, especially at the free throw line at the
end of the game, when Texas is chasing him the
whole time. That's where you get to a double digit
win by Purdue.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I couldn't agree more. I mean, that's why this thing
hasn't really budged, because I think people are scared off
of seeing a seven and a half there. So love
the two breakdowns there, Andy, and I know you were
listening intently to what Joe had to say, especially on
the prop front.
Speaker 3: Andy, what do you got for Joe?
Speaker 1: Yeah, we had to give away three day pass here.
We haven't. We haven't. We haven't gone I haven't gone
head to head with anybody. We haven't given it away
a three day pass yet this week. So Joe, let's
go ahead to head on the young Mamato prop. You
like his under fifteen and a half outs. I like
the over. In fact, I'm going to do it in
free play. So let's go head to head. Dan tell
him how we can win a three day pass.
Speaker 4: So I love it.
Speaker 2: Andy, I had the boxing bell queued up here for you,
ready to go when these guys are going head to head.
So yeah, it's just this simple. You heard Joe's great
handicap on it. Why he thinks the young motoplay should
be going under. Andy's gonna break down here in a
little bit, why he thinks it should be going over.
Speaker 4: That's what we love, folks.
Speaker 2: Sometimes the best in the biz disagree, and it's your chance.
All you do.
Speaker 4: Comment below?
Speaker 2: Do you agree with Joe or do you agree with
Andy on this Yamamoto prop.
Speaker 1: Whichever side wins.
Speaker 2: If you comment below with your wager talk user name, boom,
you're entered in to win a free three day flex pass.
So ride with the kapper of your choice. Just leave
your wager talk user name below and boom you're entered in.
Dropping in the comments after the show goes live and
you're entered in there.
Speaker 1: I like it, guys, head to head action, absolutely absolutely,
all right, let's do it. Let's do it, Joe? All right, Joe,
Thanks very much. Appreciate you, Joe.
Speaker 2: Enjoy your nap, get ready to go for the ten
o'clock game.
Speaker 6: Special guys, don't forget dinner served it for like holy
take a nap and watch the damn games.
Speaker 4: I'll see you guys next week.
Speaker 2: Thanks all joking aside, Andy, I do try and eat
dinner around four point thirty.
Speaker 1: I'm a early dinner kind of guy.
Speaker 2: It's just it's the nature of the beast, because think
you can't have snacks late night if you don't need
dinner early enough.
Speaker 1: So let's see real quick, Rob says. NCUBA Hockey tournament
starts today. Who's on that For wager talk, I'll give
you Quinnipiac versus Providence on the under five and a half.
Both teams very good defensively, and you look at Quinnipiac,
they've got a lot of games that end one, two,
two to two. See four zero, four to one. I
don't expect a lot of goals. So there's your NCUAA
Hockey play Providence in piac under five and a half.
Bet you didn't see that coming, Rob.
Speaker 4: I personally did not, Andy.
Speaker 2: But before we go all around the world and do
the unboxing, we have a couple of questions.
Speaker 1: There are statements.
Speaker 2: More that I want to get to here, and one
thing we had blocked.
Speaker 1: My bookie hates me because of lacrosse.
Speaker 4: That is what we aim to do. We want your
bookies to hate you.
Speaker 1: So I'm right there with you.
Speaker 2: I had to get some new ones simply be because
of winning a little bit too much, says saying, hey,
join live for darts. Andy has some live dart sweats
that you can join in here. Plays are loaded today,
so you can check those out. But it will change
your life. And Alfred saying I put in my first
ever darts play. It's all right, man, We're gonna get
that cricket money back.
Speaker 4: Do not worry.
Speaker 2: But Andy, I pulled up these these comments here simply
because that's what it's like when you're riding with the
winning in the Shadows team. That's what it's like when
you head on over to WT up Buzz Slash al
like this is a betting family, folks, that we all
ride together, and we're the ones who are in the discord,
you know, sweating out. We actually had a bunch of
comments yesterday Andy asking hey, where's that discord link at?
Speaker 3: So we'll make sure we drop it below.
Speaker 2: But guys, partner up, WT up, buzz backslash al we
have that thirty day all access.
Speaker 1: It's an absolute no brainer.
Speaker 2: It's a steal, you know, even over the last two
weeks with that thirty two units that we chalked up. Sure,
sometimes we're gonna lose a cricket play here and there.
Sometimes we're gonna lose a lacross play here and there.
But guess what, we're in golf, we're in darts. We're
gonna be having baseball action for you too. This is
a great time to hop in, join the family and
let's ride together and cash baby.
Speaker 1: Yeah, real quick, another thing less or Andy's props got
me limited? Yeah, props they're getting a lot better. You
used to be really props used to be really fringe,
like if you were betting NHL or NBA props, it
was like, oh, whoa, you're really out there.
Speaker 2: When you used to come on with Teddy, Teddy was like,
so how many people are.
Speaker 1: Really betting props?
Speaker 2: And now I would argue the handle, especially in like Jersey,
in those kind of places, dwarfs side in total handle.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So how to not get limited on props? There's
a few rules that I try and follow. The first is,
I know this is counterproductive, but don't beat the line.
If you see something that is a three and a
half rebounds and you know it should be four and
a half, don't do it. It takes a lot of restraint.
Don't smoke the number because you will be flagged immediately,
So you have to exercise some patience. You have to
wait a little bit. And the other thing is try
and find what your books miit it and bet below that.
If your book's limit is like five hundred dollars on props,
you're betting two fifty and you're doing that across three
or four books, don't bet. You got to stay off
the radar as much as you can in the props market.
I will guarantee you they're not going to flag you
if you win at NFL because they know they're going
to make that money back if you start doing well
in props, if you're beating the line, and if you're
betting the max limit, you're going to be on their radar.
So those are a couple tips to try and protect
your books and not get flagged.
Speaker 2: And Andy one thing that I'll throw into allow for
in your bank roll, some little tiny sprinkles on some
donkey bets.
Speaker 4: And what do I mean by that?
Speaker 1: I mean great advice.
Speaker 4: Throw it.
Speaker 2: Throw in like a three team money line parlay for
Baseball of all favorites, like throw in typical square bets,
but don't do it at a big percentage because basically
a lot of what happens unless your account is really
getting flagged super high, it's just that it's just a
bot that's essentially checking your account for what tickets that
you're typically putting in there. There typically isn't gonna be
a human who is eyeing your account unless you're really
crushing them. That's when they're gonna start actually putting some
money towards trying to flag you. So five dollars parlay,
you know, you use the bonus that they send you,
that little ten dollars bonus, Make a ten dollars bet
on a ten leg slip. Throw in some donkey bets
at way below, just so it doesn't destroy your bank roll.
That's what I've done to you know, keep keep the
scent off of me. And Lacrosse is throwing some donkey
bets elsewhere.
Speaker 1: Yankees Dodgers parlay, you'll you'll be off the radar. You
throw some of those in there're like, oh okay, square bear,
all right, let's do some free plays. Let's open a baseball,
let's do the free plays. Here we go. So there
is there's a bet here in darts that starts here
in a couple hours. Growing Price versus Jon van Veen.
I played this personally at minus one thirty. It's now
minus one seventy. Here's the deal. Van Veen is in
his early twenties. He had kidney stone last week and
he had to have surgery, and he said, my energy
is way down. I can barely, you know, move around.
This is in Germany, so he's got travel involved. Growin
price is very very good. You've missed the line move.
I actually didn't know if he was even gonna play today,
but it looks like he is gonna plays minus one seventy.
If you want to play it, fine. If when he
used it as a parlay piece, that's fine, but you're
you're fading a guy in his twenties that just had
surgery on kidney stones. So, uh, Dodgers and Diamondbacks. I
did put this Yamamoto over five and a half strikeouts.
But I'm going head to head with Joe on on
his outs props, so the strikeouts listen. He's gone over
the last three games against the Diamondbacks. He ended the
last he ended the regular season twelve straight games with
going over this, I think he goes a little bit
deeper into games. It's kind of his jam. So we'll
take that, and then Senators and Penguins. Dylan Cozens will
not have a point two points in his last nine games.
And Dan, this is an insane street. Thirteen straight games
since twenty twenty anyone against the Penguins without a point.
Just they're just some teams that you just don't score
points on, and Dylan has not been scoring against Penguins.
Those are gonna be your free plays for today, all right, Dan,
let's open up a baseball. We've had two really really
good ones the last last couple of days. If you haven't,
if you haven't watched last couple of days. I have
a bunch of these mystery autographed baseballs that I have
not opened, and so we're gonna open them, and Dan
is gonna look them up on eBay and tell us
how much they're worth. We had the Keith Mitchell one
was the best one that was worth elect for about
one hundred and twenty one hundred and thirty dollars. So alright,
today's baseball. And while I'm doing this, please hit the
like button guys. It really helps us out. And don't
forget to leave us a comment. Yeah, type in Andy
or Joe and your wager Talk user name. We're going
head to head on they Almamado out. So all right, Dan,
here we go. We got them. Come on, be a
rare Mickey Mantle one that's worth millions, all right, all right,
this one is Bob Horner nineteen seventy eight NL Rookie
of the Year, nineteen eighty two All Star Top ten
NL and home Runs nineteen seventy seven College World Series
Most Outstanding Player, hit a home run in his first
major league game, tied the major league record with four
home runs in one game. Went directly from college to
the Braves starting lineup. So this is Bob Horner, and
the autograph says Bob Horner seventy eight Nlroy Rookie of
the Year.
Speaker 4: I love that.
Speaker 2: Seventy eight NL Rookie of the Year, Andy, I think
we finally have our dude, I mean, thirty five ninety
nine is what we're looking at. But it's not like
Diaz yesterday that we can hold and make higher or
a guy who has a signature catch that was going
for around one twenty Bob Horner.
Speaker 3: You're basically locked in by it now, price ninety nine.
Speaker 1: They can't all be winners. They can't all be winners.
They can't all be winners.
Speaker 2: Andy, But you know what, before we sign off, I'll
try and get the folks a baseball winner here.
Speaker 1: We're we're maybe gonna have a drop for this, Andy,
You and I.
Speaker 2: You and I will talk about this, But how about
I try and find a dog on the baseball card
every day? A little crack of the bat you got
to day when they were looking at plus one sixty
Angels taking on the Astros. For me and this guys,
it's just the injury questions coming into this season here
for the Astros. You know, a couple different injuries that
they had stacking up at the end of last year,
a couple guys who are coming on the injured list
to start the year, and Astros come in with the
same question they have every single year. Is the window
starting to close. They also are now seeing Hunter Brown,
great young pitcher, folks, But it's also a new first
day opening day starter here for sure with from bervald
As you know, not no longer sitting there in the rotation,
especially at the top.
Speaker 4: But for me and.
Speaker 3: These teams, they see each other.
Speaker 2: And while the Astros have dominated fifty two out of
seventy seven meetings against against the Angels here last year
they were only eight and five does eight and five
on opening day with injury issues. Scream to me that
they should be a minus one eighty minus one ninety favorite.
Hell no, especially when the Angels have a new manager
who wants to start things off on the right foot.
Speaker 1: And for what it's worth.
Speaker 4: Their opening day pitcher in Soriano, he won.
Speaker 2: His two starts last year against this exact same ball
club that didn't have injury issues. Give me plus one
sixty crack of the bat, play of the day, Angels
going against Hugheson.
Speaker 4: And anybody gotta say anything, you let me know. That's
my dog, all right.
Speaker 1: No, there you go, love it, love it, love it
all right. Let's gonna do it for us. We are
going to be live for the darts of it. It's
gonna start about an hour and fifteen minute. It's on
the Winning in the Shadows YouTube channel, so just in
YouTube search Winning in the Shadows Live show is going
to be there. Sorry, two o'clock will root on our
five percent best bet. Myself and y'all will be there,
So like button comments sectually with your wager talk use
the name type Andy or Joe if you think, y'all
Mamado is going to go over or under on his
out prop today it's fifteen and a half. That's going
to do it for us. We'll be back the same time,
same place tomorrow to get you ready for the weekend.
Good luck on your bets. Let's see what tomorrow. Take
care