WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:03.000 Because it's kind of just business as usual. The trend 2 00:00:03.120 --> 00:00:08.199 is basically just to and continued accumulation long term. I 3 00:00:08.240 --> 00:00:12.199 will note that they've dumped roughly thirty thousand bitcoin in 4 00:00:12.279 --> 00:00:16.160 the last two ish weeks from June third until the 5 00:00:16.239 --> 00:00:21.120 latest closed yesterday. 6 00:00:22.719 --> 00:00:25.920 Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. Joining me 7 00:00:26.039 --> 00:00:28.440 is Brian from Sentiment, and as you know, we're going 8 00:00:28.519 --> 00:00:32.119 to do a deep dive into the metrics, the sentiment 9 00:00:32.280 --> 00:00:35.039 and much more around bitcoin and all the all coins. 10 00:00:35.240 --> 00:00:36.280 Brian, great to see. 11 00:00:36.119 --> 00:00:38.679 You, Good to see you, Tony. Up and down week. 12 00:00:39.799 --> 00:00:44.159 Sentiments kind of starting to drift into parish slash a 13 00:00:44.159 --> 00:00:47.840 little impatience, which is exactly what a lot of bulls 14 00:00:47.880 --> 00:00:50.039 want to see, right. We want to see that the 15 00:00:50.240 --> 00:00:55.719 retail crowd is starting to shift into impatient kind of 16 00:00:55.759 --> 00:00:59.560 mode and that tends to be when good things start 17 00:00:59.560 --> 00:00:59.920 to happen. 18 00:01:00.679 --> 00:01:04.079 Yeah, it's so funny, right, It's the contrarian signal that 19 00:01:04.640 --> 00:01:06.879 the majority of people may say, oh man, this market's 20 00:01:06.920 --> 00:01:09.799 not doing anything. I'm tired, i'm giving up, i'm walking away, 21 00:01:09.840 --> 00:01:13.439 I'm selling it's over. But then the bulls and the 22 00:01:13.480 --> 00:01:16.840 folks who are you know, doing the opposite of what's 23 00:01:16.879 --> 00:01:21.760 happening out there. They are looking at this like, you know, 24 00:01:21.840 --> 00:01:24.599 the opportune moment to see all of this happening. 25 00:01:25.200 --> 00:01:28.680 I was talking with the data team a little this morning, 26 00:01:29.000 --> 00:01:33.400 and we're seeing an increase in specific calls related to 27 00:01:34.920 --> 00:01:39.400 target prices to buy back in. So the trend right 28 00:01:39.439 --> 00:01:42.359 now is a lot of people sitting on the sidelines, 29 00:01:42.439 --> 00:01:46.319 maybe getting more into stocks or something else that even gold, 30 00:01:46.439 --> 00:01:50.079 something moving a little more than crypto has lately, and 31 00:01:51.560 --> 00:01:55.200 waiting for you know, one hundred k, waiting for ninety k, 32 00:01:55.879 --> 00:01:58.079 even lower than that. You know, we're seeing all sorts 33 00:01:58.120 --> 00:02:02.640 of target prices to buy back in. Even though I 34 00:02:02.640 --> 00:02:04.879 did the calculation this morning, we're just six point two 35 00:02:04.920 --> 00:02:07.400 percent off of the all time high, and people are 36 00:02:07.439 --> 00:02:10.400 acting all of a sudden like you know, what have 37 00:02:10.439 --> 00:02:13.400 you done for me lately? Getting into that mindset like, oh, 38 00:02:13.439 --> 00:02:16.039 the all time high was already a full month ago now, 39 00:02:16.560 --> 00:02:19.960 So we are dealing with a bit of a spoiled 40 00:02:21.280 --> 00:02:24.439 kind of bunch lately, and for good reason. It's been 41 00:02:24.520 --> 00:02:29.319 such a good couple of years for crypto. So this 42 00:02:29.400 --> 00:02:32.719 is generally a good scenario where you're seeing people saying, oh, 43 00:02:32.759 --> 00:02:36.599 I still am bullish long term, but bear is short 44 00:02:36.680 --> 00:02:38.759 term because I just think the bitcoin is going to 45 00:02:38.800 --> 00:02:41.639 go to this based on the seventeen lines I drew 46 00:02:41.680 --> 00:02:42.240 on trading do. 47 00:02:43.039 --> 00:02:46.439 Yeah, And it's funny. I also get comments of you know, 48 00:02:46.439 --> 00:02:49.319 people who are not allocated to bitcoin. They're like, where's 49 00:02:49.319 --> 00:02:51.800 the bullmarket. I'm like, the bullmarket is starting January twenty 50 00:02:51.840 --> 00:02:55.039 twenty three. And because you were misallocated, you didn't have 51 00:02:55.080 --> 00:02:57.360 some bitcoin your portfolio. You missed a lot of the gains. 52 00:02:57.719 --> 00:02:59.400 And I keep trying to tell people that, don't be 53 00:02:59.639 --> 00:03:04.479 max less Randy token and you know, diversify wholesome bitcoin, 54 00:03:04.479 --> 00:03:06.879 and yes, you can have your all coins, but Bitcoin 55 00:03:07.159 --> 00:03:10.719 is you know, has the higher probability of seeing those games, 56 00:03:10.719 --> 00:03:12.080 while certain all coins may not. 57 00:03:13.400 --> 00:03:16.080 Exactly. Yeah, some people fall in love with whatever coin 58 00:03:16.199 --> 00:03:18.759 made them the most money the last bull cycle, right, 59 00:03:18.800 --> 00:03:21.680 and they're just they feel like there's an allegiance to them. 60 00:03:22.000 --> 00:03:25.000 And to an extent, that's okay. You might believe in 61 00:03:25.039 --> 00:03:28.800 the long term viability of a certain asset, but if 62 00:03:28.840 --> 00:03:32.039 you don't diversify, you can miss out on quite a 63 00:03:32.080 --> 00:03:36.840 few individual runs just based on the cyclical nature of crypto. 64 00:03:37.599 --> 00:03:40.879 Absolutely all right, Brian. He shows the charts that you're 65 00:03:40.879 --> 00:03:43.680 looking at. We could start with bitcoin. Maybe we look 66 00:03:43.680 --> 00:03:44.680 at sentiment. 67 00:03:45.479 --> 00:03:49.000 You bet, let's start there. I pulled up this handy 68 00:03:49.080 --> 00:03:52.599 dandy sentiment chart that just looks at the daily ratio 69 00:03:53.360 --> 00:03:57.400 of all the bullish versus negative comments over the past 70 00:03:57.599 --> 00:04:01.120 three months here, and generally higher we go, the more 71 00:04:01.240 --> 00:04:03.800 likely we're getting close to a top. If we get 72 00:04:03.840 --> 00:04:08.120 super low, we're getting close to bottom. So naturally this 73 00:04:08.319 --> 00:04:11.159 was a great signal to buy right after Trump announced 74 00:04:11.199 --> 00:04:14.919 the tariffs, and people were running around like chickens with 75 00:04:14.960 --> 00:04:17.759 their heads cut off, assuming that we were gonna just 76 00:04:17.920 --> 00:04:21.959 absolutely fall off a cliff. Of course, after a medium 77 00:04:22.000 --> 00:04:25.160 sized retrace ended up being the perfect time to buy. 78 00:04:25.720 --> 00:04:28.000 And I know a ton of people are kicking themselves 79 00:04:28.040 --> 00:04:32.199 after you know, this bearish bar right here happened. And 80 00:04:32.240 --> 00:04:35.720 then we went on a about a forty six percent 81 00:04:35.839 --> 00:04:38.720 run en route to that new all time high in May. 82 00:04:39.399 --> 00:04:43.199 So since that time, we saw, of course that huge 83 00:04:43.199 --> 00:04:46.240 bullish spike here. What a coincidence. This is where price 84 00:04:46.319 --> 00:04:48.480 is top out and we start to go down, and 85 00:04:48.519 --> 00:04:53.439 then we actually got pretty bearish just about four days ago. 86 00:04:53.480 --> 00:04:56.759 We're shooting this on the nineteenth. This was on the fifteenth, 87 00:04:56.839 --> 00:04:58.959 and we ended up going on a little mini rally 88 00:04:59.040 --> 00:05:02.040 back above one OA. Then people got a little bit 89 00:05:02.079 --> 00:05:05.000 bullish again and we fell back down. Now we're kind 90 00:05:05.000 --> 00:05:08.720 of sitting a little in the middle, arguably just slightly bearish. 91 00:05:08.920 --> 00:05:13.279 We have some other signals here that show more clearly 92 00:05:13.319 --> 00:05:16.079 how barish people are getting. But just in terms of 93 00:05:16.120 --> 00:05:20.639 all the overall bullish versus bearish comments that our algorithm 94 00:05:20.680 --> 00:05:25.319 is picking up, it doesn't look like people are showing 95 00:05:25.360 --> 00:05:28.639 a lot of patients right now. It's a growing amount 96 00:05:28.680 --> 00:05:31.879 of frustration if we just look at the overall trend, 97 00:05:32.000 --> 00:05:35.560 you know, since mid May or so on these gold lines. 98 00:05:36.639 --> 00:05:39.000 Yeah, and you know when I look at the bitcoin 99 00:05:39.160 --> 00:05:41.160 chart on Trading View and I look at like the 100 00:05:41.319 --> 00:05:44.800 rs I, I think sometimes people don't realize the market 101 00:05:44.800 --> 00:05:47.560 becomes overheated and they wanted to keep going right, it 102 00:05:47.639 --> 00:05:49.600 must keep going up, must keep go like like it 103 00:05:49.639 --> 00:05:51.720 has to go up in a straight line. But mars 104 00:05:51.959 --> 00:05:56.240 markets are cyclical, and you know this cool down. If 105 00:05:56.560 --> 00:05:58.319 you look at the rs I and the bitcoin chart, 106 00:05:58.839 --> 00:06:01.279 it's it looks healthy because it was overbought and then 107 00:06:01.279 --> 00:06:04.399 now it's going to the oversouled exactly. 108 00:06:04.480 --> 00:06:07.959 Yeah, we've got RSI. Actually I rarely use it because 109 00:06:08.519 --> 00:06:12.720 it's already so available elsewhere, but I can tell you 110 00:06:12.759 --> 00:06:15.720 that on the RSI, you know, we did fall back 111 00:06:15.759 --> 00:06:18.680 below fifty. Let me just get rid of this extra 112 00:06:18.759 --> 00:06:23.879 line here. So just looking at the RSI first, here's 113 00:06:23.959 --> 00:06:28.639 the midway point. I know people who really value RSI 114 00:06:28.759 --> 00:06:30.199 and use it a lot more than I do. But 115 00:06:31.199 --> 00:06:34.279 from what I've seen in my analysis, this was the 116 00:06:34.319 --> 00:06:39.839 point in which we fell back below that midway point 117 00:06:39.959 --> 00:06:43.600 and went into slightly bullish range here, not by much. 118 00:06:44.079 --> 00:06:46.959 Forty seven is pretty even, but you can see how 119 00:06:47.040 --> 00:06:49.600 rare it's been over the last two and a half 120 00:06:49.600 --> 00:06:51.720 months or so for us to actually be below the 121 00:06:51.759 --> 00:06:53.839 fifty mine for RSI. 122 00:06:55.439 --> 00:06:58.839 Yeah, and I expect, you know, I often tell people, look, 123 00:06:58.839 --> 00:07:01.680 if we're overbought, you got to anticipate the market's going 124 00:07:01.759 --> 00:07:04.319 to go to the opposite way when we become oversold 125 00:07:04.879 --> 00:07:08.759 and sellers, you know, become exhausted, and you know the 126 00:07:08.759 --> 00:07:10.120 market's going to go the other way. And of course 127 00:07:10.160 --> 00:07:11.959 the sentiment of follows that which we were talking about. 128 00:07:12.120 --> 00:07:14.920 The retail heard right, they get very excited when you 129 00:07:14.920 --> 00:07:17.600 know we're heated up. Everybody's buying, and so forth. 130 00:07:18.800 --> 00:07:22.839 But it's always that lagging emotional reaction after the fact, right, 131 00:07:23.199 --> 00:07:26.480 People are way more bullish after a bitcoin goes up 132 00:07:26.480 --> 00:07:29.759 to one twelve as opposed to being bullish back when 133 00:07:29.759 --> 00:07:32.399 it's in the low hundred k's or in the ninety ks. 134 00:07:32.519 --> 00:07:35.639 So it's just the nature of the beast. It's always 135 00:07:35.680 --> 00:07:37.879 a what have you done for me lately kind of mindset, 136 00:07:38.240 --> 00:07:40.839 And this is why the majority of retailers lose money 137 00:07:41.079 --> 00:07:44.959 because they refuse to buy in when everyone else on 138 00:07:45.000 --> 00:07:48.480 their timeline is spewing the bearish narrative, and they refuse 139 00:07:48.560 --> 00:07:53.560 to sell when everyone is spewing the bullish narrative. But yeah, absolutely, yeah, 140 00:07:53.600 --> 00:07:56.720 And I wanted to on a related note to RSI, 141 00:07:56.920 --> 00:07:59.879 this is kind of like the cousin of RSI is MVRV. 142 00:08:00.639 --> 00:08:03.800 And here we see that the average returns when you 143 00:08:03.839 --> 00:08:06.839 take all the addresses that have interacted on the bitcoin 144 00:08:06.879 --> 00:08:10.399 network in the past thirty days, the average returns are 145 00:08:10.439 --> 00:08:15.040 at about negative two percent. So that actually is a 146 00:08:15.120 --> 00:08:18.040 slightly encouraging sign that we could see a bit of 147 00:08:18.040 --> 00:08:22.759 a rebound. What we didn't want to do is buy in. 148 00:08:23.199 --> 00:08:27.040 I mean, there were times across mid April to mid 149 00:08:27.079 --> 00:08:30.000 May where it actually would have worked out as you 150 00:08:30.079 --> 00:08:33.720 bought in while others were already in profit. But generally 151 00:08:34.320 --> 00:08:37.559 you want to I love using these emojis when I can. 152 00:08:38.679 --> 00:08:41.960 Don't buy when you're seeing the MVRV way up here, 153 00:08:42.080 --> 00:08:48.120 especially like above, I'd say ten percent or so, So 154 00:08:48.720 --> 00:08:51.799 avoid that zone when you get way up here, and 155 00:08:51.840 --> 00:08:56.120 then you want to send the rocket ships when we're 156 00:08:56.480 --> 00:08:59.960 way down below, you know, roughly negative five, negative ten, 157 00:09:00.000 --> 00:09:03.679 ten percent like we saw. Really the only opportunity we 158 00:09:03.720 --> 00:09:06.559 saw was back when the tariffs were first announced. But 159 00:09:06.600 --> 00:09:09.000 it's at least in negative territory now, which is good. 160 00:09:09.879 --> 00:09:10.519 Yeah. 161 00:09:10.559 --> 00:09:13.679 And you know, I find this data is so valuable 162 00:09:14.080 --> 00:09:16.000 because it's what the smart money uses. 163 00:09:16.039 --> 00:09:18.559 They don't they're not welcome by their emotions. 164 00:09:18.639 --> 00:09:20.360 Oh the price is up, I feel happy today, or 165 00:09:20.440 --> 00:09:23.159 the price is down, I feel sad. But what is 166 00:09:23.200 --> 00:09:26.440 the data telling us? And you know this is so 167 00:09:26.559 --> 00:09:30.519 much in alignment with how the market moves and of 168 00:09:30.559 --> 00:09:33.600 course a contrarian to the retail sentiment. 169 00:09:33.639 --> 00:09:34.720 It's it's so fascinating. 170 00:09:35.360 --> 00:09:38.120 Yeah. And one final thing to say on that, you 171 00:09:38.120 --> 00:09:41.360 know ninety eight percent or so of your viewers are 172 00:09:41.399 --> 00:09:44.279 well aware of the concept of buying low and selling high. 173 00:09:44.759 --> 00:09:47.360 But if we go back, you know, ten years, right, 174 00:09:47.679 --> 00:09:50.200 let's just look at twenty fifteen to twenty twenty five 175 00:09:51.759 --> 00:09:55.879 and we'll just look at price by itself. So if 176 00:09:55.879 --> 00:09:58.440 you look at this chart, you tell me what the 177 00:09:58.480 --> 00:10:01.240 low and the high is, right, It's impossible when you 178 00:10:01.279 --> 00:10:05.360 look at different timeframes. And what MVRV does is it 179 00:10:05.399 --> 00:10:09.919 allows you to understand what the high versus low is 180 00:10:10.720 --> 00:10:14.639 relative to the average traders that you're competing with. It 181 00:10:14.679 --> 00:10:16.679 may look like you're all on the same team because 182 00:10:16.720 --> 00:10:18.799 the timeline is going like we're all going to the moon, 183 00:10:19.159 --> 00:10:22.120 but the reality is crypto is zero sum game, and 184 00:10:22.200 --> 00:10:24.240 you don't want to be buying in when everyone else 185 00:10:24.320 --> 00:10:28.799 is already profited plus fifty percent like they did in 186 00:10:28.919 --> 00:10:33.440 late November twenty seventeen. And you you do want to 187 00:10:33.480 --> 00:10:36.759 get in when people are in massive pain like they 188 00:10:36.799 --> 00:10:41.200 were in May twenty twenty one, or you know, the 189 00:10:41.200 --> 00:10:45.360 crash in twenty twenty two after the FTX debacle, stuff 190 00:10:45.399 --> 00:10:49.879 like that. It's there's no better way to know what 191 00:10:50.000 --> 00:10:54.240 a low versus a high is than looking at MVRV 192 00:10:54.360 --> 00:10:57.799 in my opinion, and RSI to an extent helps, So yeah, 193 00:10:57.840 --> 00:10:59.559 I'm glad you mentioned what you did. 194 00:11:00.360 --> 00:11:03.399 Yeah, for sure. So speaking of smart money, what are 195 00:11:03.399 --> 00:11:06.159 the Whales doing? Are they continuing to accumulate? 196 00:11:07.000 --> 00:11:09.440 Yeah, And we don't need to even spend a ton 197 00:11:09.480 --> 00:11:11.480 of time on it because it's kind of just business 198 00:11:11.519 --> 00:11:16.159 as usual. The trend is basically just to and continued 199 00:11:16.159 --> 00:11:20.600 accumulation long term. I will note that they've dumped roughly 200 00:11:20.720 --> 00:11:24.840 thirty thousand bitcoin in the last two ish weeks from 201 00:11:24.919 --> 00:11:29.919 June third until the latest close yesterday, but it's not 202 00:11:29.960 --> 00:11:32.480 a giant dump by any means. It's kind of just 203 00:11:32.519 --> 00:11:35.440 a minor one that I would need to see way 204 00:11:35.480 --> 00:11:39.440 more before I'm concerned that Bitcoin's about to fall off 205 00:11:39.440 --> 00:11:41.799 the cliff due to lack of smart money support. 206 00:11:42.720 --> 00:11:44.559 And if you look at the chart, there was a 207 00:11:44.679 --> 00:11:46.759 huge spike, So it looks like it could be like 208 00:11:46.799 --> 00:11:49.679 the Whales who are playing the short term game, and 209 00:11:49.720 --> 00:11:52.360 then of course they're their long term one, the ones 210 00:11:52.360 --> 00:11:54.320 that view it from a long term that are slowly 211 00:11:54.600 --> 00:11:57.960 steadily accumulating. But that spike, I mean, it seems like 212 00:11:58.000 --> 00:11:59.960 a natural decline off that huge spike. 213 00:12:00.720 --> 00:12:02.759 You're referring to this June third one right here that 214 00:12:02.759 --> 00:12:07.600 I'm highlighting. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean between this one 215 00:12:07.679 --> 00:12:10.320 week between late May or early June, they added about 216 00:12:10.320 --> 00:12:14.080 one hundred k bitcoin. That was massive, And part of 217 00:12:14.120 --> 00:12:17.440 the reason they kept accumulating is because prices were actually 218 00:12:17.600 --> 00:12:21.360 slowly sliding down a bit, giving them more and more 219 00:12:21.480 --> 00:12:26.120 justification to accumulate more as retailers. We're panicking here, and 220 00:12:26.159 --> 00:12:29.759 then naturally as we rebounded, that's when they offloaded. So 221 00:12:29.799 --> 00:12:31.960 they they kind of made a short term play here. 222 00:12:32.000 --> 00:12:34.799 It looks like where they just simply accumulated for a 223 00:12:34.840 --> 00:12:37.159 week while it was going down and then dumped for 224 00:12:37.200 --> 00:12:39.240 a week while it was going up. And now it's 225 00:12:39.320 --> 00:12:42.679 kind of just when you see prices range. That's actually 226 00:12:42.720 --> 00:12:47.679 some of the best timing for actually understanding what the 227 00:12:47.799 --> 00:12:52.039 smart money's real mindset is, because there's they're not just 228 00:12:52.080 --> 00:12:54.919 accumulating because prices are going down or dumping because the 229 00:12:54.919 --> 00:12:57.679 prices are going up. They're watching prices kind of stay 230 00:12:57.720 --> 00:12:59.759 in this one oh three to one oh six k 231 00:12:59.840 --> 00:13:05.600 range and they're slowly adding more. Meaning it's pretty indisputable 232 00:13:05.639 --> 00:13:09.840 that they're quite bullish for the mid and long term timeframes. 233 00:13:10.440 --> 00:13:11.360 Yeah. Absolutely. 234 00:13:11.679 --> 00:13:14.519 And on that note, how are ETF inflow is looking. 235 00:13:14.919 --> 00:13:17.200 I saw folks on Bloomberg and so where they were 236 00:13:17.240 --> 00:13:19.799 highlighting they have been a good amount of inflows. 237 00:13:20.360 --> 00:13:24.440 Yeah, this is looking really good. This is even though 238 00:13:24.440 --> 00:13:26.840 it's saying June seventeenth on my screen. It's a time 239 00:13:26.960 --> 00:13:29.320 zone thing, so this was actually the close of yesterday. 240 00:13:29.679 --> 00:13:33.799 We've now seen seven straight days. Today is actually an 241 00:13:33.799 --> 00:13:37.480 off day for global stock markets due to June teenth, 242 00:13:37.799 --> 00:13:44.120 but seven straight days prior to today has been nothing but inflows, 243 00:13:44.679 --> 00:13:47.919 not a single outflow day since going back to June sixth, 244 00:13:48.559 --> 00:13:54.320 So it's actually a very encouraging sign that inflows keep 245 00:13:54.360 --> 00:13:59.360 on coming despite price's sliding mildly over the last what 246 00:13:59.559 --> 00:14:01.679 forest which actually full week or so? 247 00:14:01.840 --> 00:14:04.799 Really hmmm? Interesting? 248 00:14:06.360 --> 00:14:10.000 Now if we could talk stable coins, tether supply, and 249 00:14:10.000 --> 00:14:12.519 then of course I want to get your thoughts on 250 00:14:12.879 --> 00:14:15.759 mentions of stable coin because we had the Genius Act 251 00:14:15.919 --> 00:14:18.480 passing this Senate, so I'm curious what people are saying. 252 00:14:18.519 --> 00:14:20.679 Are they bullishit about that news and things like that. 253 00:14:21.480 --> 00:14:23.879 Yeah, so for starters, we can just look at the 254 00:14:23.919 --> 00:14:28.639 overall mentions of stable coins. The redline year is social dominance, 255 00:14:28.679 --> 00:14:32.519 So this is like the actual percentage of discussions related 256 00:14:32.559 --> 00:14:37.759 to the word stable coin, USDT or USDC. I might 257 00:14:37.799 --> 00:14:42.360 as well, add stable coin or stable coins so you 258 00:14:42.399 --> 00:14:46.080 can get the full picture. Yeah, it's about the same. 259 00:14:46.159 --> 00:14:48.960 So you can see the social dominance really hit its 260 00:14:48.960 --> 00:14:54.120 peak about a month from today, month ago, and it's 261 00:14:54.200 --> 00:14:57.000 back up there now. So it's we're over two percent 262 00:14:57.120 --> 00:15:01.600 of all discussions in crypto being really related to stable 263 00:15:01.639 --> 00:15:05.519 coins and USDT and USDC. So people are clearly talking 264 00:15:05.519 --> 00:15:08.399 about it a lot. But if we get a little 265 00:15:08.440 --> 00:15:13.120 more crafty here, I can say, let's put all those 266 00:15:13.159 --> 00:15:20.840 words together, stable coins and the word bullish, and we'll 267 00:15:20.840 --> 00:15:24.879 see what happens here. Yeah, so you see this big 268 00:15:24.919 --> 00:15:30.320 spike on June seventeenth, just a couple of days ago. Definitely, 269 00:15:30.360 --> 00:15:35.279 people are are happy about this overall result and believe 270 00:15:35.320 --> 00:15:39.039 it's good for crypto. That's what I would take away 271 00:15:39.039 --> 00:15:39.360 from this. 272 00:15:40.399 --> 00:15:40.919 Interesting. 273 00:15:41.759 --> 00:15:44.399 And then as far as tether supply and how that's 274 00:15:44.440 --> 00:15:50.120 been performing, curious what you're seeing on that front. 275 00:15:50.360 --> 00:15:53.080 Yeah, let's check out. We'll just do a quick look 276 00:15:53.120 --> 00:15:56.840 at both teather and usd coin to see how the 277 00:15:56.960 --> 00:16:01.320 supplant exchanges are looking well overall, as well as the 278 00:16:01.440 --> 00:16:07.200 ratio of all tether. So there's about thirty three and 279 00:16:07.240 --> 00:16:10.200 a half billion dollars worth of Tether on exchanges right now, 280 00:16:10.639 --> 00:16:14.799 it's dropped pretty dramatically. Going back to early February, about 281 00:16:14.840 --> 00:16:19.279 four and a half months of time elapsing has led 282 00:16:19.320 --> 00:16:24.000 to ten point five to seven billion dollars less of 283 00:16:24.039 --> 00:16:29.120 tether on exchanges and about fourteen percent of all tether 284 00:16:29.399 --> 00:16:34.200 less on exchanges right now. So the dry powder that's 285 00:16:34.240 --> 00:16:39.559 available has declined pretty dramatically for crypto's top stable coin. 286 00:16:40.000 --> 00:16:42.480 Yeah, and one of the metrics I usually share with 287 00:16:42.639 --> 00:16:48.519 my listeners and hearers is tether dominance. And obviously in 288 00:16:48.559 --> 00:16:52.440 the past month or so we saw decline, not a 289 00:16:52.480 --> 00:16:54.279 full on drop like we saw in Q four of 290 00:16:54.360 --> 00:16:57.720 last year and even Q one Q two of twenty 291 00:16:57.759 --> 00:17:01.080 twenty four, but it's getting so I'm curious to see 292 00:17:01.120 --> 00:17:01.879 how this plays out. 293 00:17:01.960 --> 00:17:03.480 Could this be the last leg. 294 00:17:03.279 --> 00:17:06.119 Of the bull market As we head into July, Bitcoin 295 00:17:06.160 --> 00:17:08.440 maybe goes to one hundred thirty five to one hundred 296 00:17:08.480 --> 00:17:11.160 and forty k all coins do their final move, or 297 00:17:11.400 --> 00:17:15.279 you know, maybe the supply starts to reverse. More usdts 298 00:17:15.359 --> 00:17:16.640 minted as wills come back in. 299 00:17:17.720 --> 00:17:20.720 Yeah, that's interesting. So just to clarify, are you referring 300 00:17:20.720 --> 00:17:26.960 to Tether's market cap versus the rest of crypto's market cap. Oh, so. 301 00:17:28.759 --> 00:17:33.200 It's a tether dominance metric on Trading View, so kind 302 00:17:33.200 --> 00:17:36.039 of like Bitcoin dominance where it shows. 303 00:17:37.039 --> 00:17:39.440 I think that's market cap. I'm pretty sure that's what 304 00:17:39.519 --> 00:17:42.359 Trading View refers to if they're Yeah, if they're talking 305 00:17:42.359 --> 00:17:45.039 about bitcoin dominance, at least we know it's about price 306 00:17:45.640 --> 00:17:49.039 or or overall market caps, share share bitcoin has versus 307 00:17:49.039 --> 00:17:51.319 everything else, so tether probably is the same thing. 308 00:17:51.839 --> 00:17:52.400 Yeah. 309 00:17:53.519 --> 00:17:56.359 So I was just checking USDC. By the way, market 310 00:17:56.440 --> 00:17:59.559 caps pretty flat and supply and exchange this is actually 311 00:17:59.640 --> 00:18:02.920 going up up. But now let's look at Tether's market 312 00:18:02.920 --> 00:18:06.319 cap overall, and it's been huge. Yeah, it's a it's 313 00:18:06.359 --> 00:18:09.640 a massive rise in market cap, which you don't often 314 00:18:09.640 --> 00:18:12.160 see because Tether's price is always going to be pegged 315 00:18:12.160 --> 00:18:14.359 at a dollar, but its market cap is still always 316 00:18:14.359 --> 00:18:19.839 doing its own thing. And yeah, there's about nearly eleven 317 00:18:21.319 --> 00:18:26.960 eleven billion dollars more market cap over the past two months. 318 00:18:27.359 --> 00:18:27.799 Hm hmm. 319 00:18:28.319 --> 00:18:31.640 Interesting, that's a pretty huge rise. Thanks for pointing that out. 320 00:18:32.519 --> 00:18:36.200 Yeah, I mean it could be like if everything goes 321 00:18:36.240 --> 00:18:38.799 according to plan, and what we see in historically with 322 00:18:38.839 --> 00:18:43.079 the four year cycles, this, you know, is the blow 323 00:18:43.079 --> 00:18:46.720 off top here, So I would expect to see the 324 00:18:47.039 --> 00:18:50.920 stable coin supply increased significantly, specifically around tether, and then 325 00:18:50.920 --> 00:18:53.920 of course that will move into the crypto market. Then 326 00:18:53.960 --> 00:18:58.720 it you know, it will cool down as as as 327 00:18:58.720 --> 00:19:00.960 the prices go up, but then there willation back into 328 00:19:00.960 --> 00:19:02.279 it as people take profits. 329 00:19:03.920 --> 00:19:08.000 Yeah, that's interesting. I'm just curious because the minting process 330 00:19:08.160 --> 00:19:11.359 for tea there's always a bit of a mystery. I'm 331 00:19:11.359 --> 00:19:14.839 sure some people know it pretty well, but if we 332 00:19:14.880 --> 00:19:17.839 look at the supply outside of exchanges, yeah, it's pretty 333 00:19:17.920 --> 00:19:21.599 much inverse. So this is it looks like it's a 334 00:19:21.599 --> 00:19:26.559 pretty direct correlation of coins moving out of exchanges and 335 00:19:26.720 --> 00:19:28.920 going into cold wallets. I was just curious if there's 336 00:19:28.960 --> 00:19:32.119 just like a maybe the ratio is going down because 337 00:19:32.160 --> 00:19:36.200 there's a big boost and minted tether going into cold 338 00:19:36.200 --> 00:19:41.480 wallets and stuff, which does happen, but it's pretty it 339 00:19:41.519 --> 00:19:44.440 doesn't look like there's much variation. They're pretty much mirror 340 00:19:44.519 --> 00:19:46.119 images of each other, right now. 341 00:19:46.559 --> 00:19:49.640 Yeah for sure. All right, let's talk to some all coins. 342 00:19:50.200 --> 00:19:53.599 We could start with eight since that's been looking good lately, 343 00:19:53.720 --> 00:19:56.400 and there's been some pretty positive news as well with 344 00:19:56.759 --> 00:19:59.680 companies adopting and eth corporate Treasury strategy. 345 00:20:00.279 --> 00:20:02.319 Mm hmm, Yeah, I wanted to start here. I put 346 00:20:02.319 --> 00:20:05.000 this out just about an hour ago. It's just a 347 00:20:05.119 --> 00:20:08.799 nice look at network growth over time. So for those 348 00:20:09.039 --> 00:20:12.599 kind of doubting Ethereum, now that it's kind of petered 349 00:20:12.640 --> 00:20:15.640 out at around twenty five hundred and that big rally 350 00:20:15.680 --> 00:20:19.720 from late May has temporarily come to a stop, we 351 00:20:19.759 --> 00:20:22.759 look at network growth, which is just the overall amount 352 00:20:22.799 --> 00:20:26.759 of new addresses being created. Each of these yellow bars 353 00:20:26.799 --> 00:20:30.960 represents one week over the past year, and there was 354 00:20:31.000 --> 00:20:33.559 about five hundred and sixty thousand, six hundred and seventy 355 00:20:33.559 --> 00:20:37.359 thousand new wallets being created per week last summer around 356 00:20:37.359 --> 00:20:40.440 this time. Now we're up at anywhere between eight hundred 357 00:20:40.519 --> 00:20:43.480 k to a million, and the long term trend is 358 00:20:43.519 --> 00:20:47.839 pretty clear. This is the healthiest we've ever seen Ethereum's 359 00:20:47.839 --> 00:20:52.920 ecosystem look in terms of just overall growth. So I 360 00:20:53.640 --> 00:20:58.279 am very encouraged by what Ethereum is doing underneath the hood. 361 00:20:58.319 --> 00:21:01.920 Right now as people obsess over price, you know, the 362 00:21:01.960 --> 00:21:06.200 long term sustainability is looking stronger than ever. 363 00:21:07.880 --> 00:21:08.960 Yeah. 364 00:21:08.559 --> 00:21:11.599 I'm bullish on eth not just because I'm a token holder, 365 00:21:11.799 --> 00:21:14.279 just I see a lot of adoption, and there's so 366 00:21:14.319 --> 00:21:17.079 many layer twos and so many people building on it, 367 00:21:17.119 --> 00:21:20.359 and I think of similar to what happened with XRP. 368 00:21:20.519 --> 00:21:22.359 People, Okay, it's a dead coin. 369 00:21:22.279 --> 00:21:25.319 Nothing's going to happen. Yet it's still in the top ten, right, 370 00:21:25.359 --> 00:21:29.480 top five is having what's having that similar moment? Everybody, Oh, 371 00:21:29.480 --> 00:21:31.839 it's dead, it's not doing anything. Solana is the better 372 00:21:32.200 --> 00:21:34.680 coined and all of a sudden it starts melting faces. 373 00:21:34.720 --> 00:21:40.519 And I think as the SEC approves staking in eth ETFs. 374 00:21:40.160 --> 00:21:41.279 Is going to drive a lot of demand. 375 00:21:42.480 --> 00:21:44.759 I would agree, Yeah, I mean you can if you 376 00:21:45.079 --> 00:21:50.079 can start to steak from an ETF perspective, that's one 377 00:21:50.079 --> 00:21:52.000 of the only things that I think was holding it 378 00:21:52.039 --> 00:21:54.599 back was the risk and holding it on chain and 379 00:21:55.359 --> 00:21:58.240 ETFs would solve that problem. And if you can start 380 00:21:58.240 --> 00:22:01.240 to steak on top of that, I mean, get ready 381 00:22:01.279 --> 00:22:05.920 to open the floodgates. In terms of interested parties. Can 382 00:22:05.920 --> 00:22:11.119 we look at the MBRV for pre Yeah. By the way, 383 00:22:11.160 --> 00:22:13.599 funding rate is pretty neutral too. I've been keeping an 384 00:22:13.599 --> 00:22:16.279 eye on that to see if shorts start to pop up, 385 00:22:16.680 --> 00:22:20.839 sincet negative sentiments starting to creep in. But in terms 386 00:22:20.839 --> 00:22:26.839 of MVRV, which is right here looking pretty good. So 387 00:22:26.880 --> 00:22:30.640 they're both in negative range right now, implying that adding 388 00:22:30.680 --> 00:22:34.559 on or buying a position is less risky than usual 389 00:22:35.359 --> 00:22:39.200 at this time. Thirty day mvrvs it about negative three 390 00:22:39.240 --> 00:22:43.400 point nine percent, three sixty five days about negative six 391 00:22:43.440 --> 00:22:46.400 point seven percent. So as long as you got both 392 00:22:46.440 --> 00:22:48.839 of these in negative range. As you can see, the 393 00:22:48.920 --> 00:22:54.039 last time we had that happen was late April, and yeah, 394 00:22:54.079 --> 00:22:57.319 that turned out to be a pretty nice formula for 395 00:22:57.920 --> 00:23:01.039 price rises right after that happened. So we're not as 396 00:23:01.079 --> 00:23:05.279 extreme in the negative range as we saw when you know, 397 00:23:05.400 --> 00:23:08.720 people were freaked out about the tariffs. But the fact 398 00:23:08.759 --> 00:23:11.920 that there we've been in this negative range for short 399 00:23:11.920 --> 00:23:14.640 and long term traders is a solid sign. 400 00:23:15.480 --> 00:23:16.279 Yeah, for sure. 401 00:23:17.400 --> 00:23:20.720