Speaker 1: Because it's kind of just business as usual. The trend
Speaker 1: is basically just to and continued accumulation long term. I
Speaker 1: will note that they've dumped roughly thirty thousand bitcoin in
Speaker 1: the last two ish weeks from June third until the
Speaker 1: latest closed yesterday.
Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. Joining me
Speaker 2: is Brian from Sentiment, and as you know, we're going
Speaker 2: to do a deep dive into the metrics, the sentiment
Speaker 2: and much more around bitcoin and all the all coins.
Speaker 3: Brian, great to see.
Speaker 1: You, Good to see you, Tony. Up and down week.
Speaker 1: Sentiments kind of starting to drift into parish slash a
Speaker 1: little impatience, which is exactly what a lot of bulls
Speaker 1: want to see, right. We want to see that the
Speaker 1: retail crowd is starting to shift into impatient kind of
Speaker 1: mode and that tends to be when good things start
Speaker 1: to happen.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's so funny, right, It's the contrarian signal that
Speaker 2: the majority of people may say, oh man, this market's
Speaker 2: not doing anything. I'm tired, i'm giving up, i'm walking away,
Speaker 2: I'm selling it's over. But then the bulls and the
Speaker 2: folks who are you know, doing the opposite of what's
Speaker 2: happening out there. They are looking at this like, you know,
Speaker 2: the opportune moment to see all of this happening.
Speaker 1: I was talking with the data team a little this morning,
Speaker 1: and we're seeing an increase in specific calls related to
Speaker 1: target prices to buy back in. So the trend right
Speaker 1: now is a lot of people sitting on the sidelines,
Speaker 1: maybe getting more into stocks or something else that even gold,
Speaker 1: something moving a little more than crypto has lately, and
Speaker 1: waiting for you know, one hundred k, waiting for ninety k,
Speaker 1: even lower than that. You know, we're seeing all sorts
Speaker 1: of target prices to buy back in. Even though I
Speaker 1: did the calculation this morning, we're just six point two
Speaker 1: percent off of the all time high, and people are
Speaker 1: acting all of a sudden like you know, what have
Speaker 1: you done for me lately? Getting into that mindset like, oh,
Speaker 1: the all time high was already a full month ago now,
Speaker 1: So we are dealing with a bit of a spoiled
Speaker 1: kind of bunch lately, and for good reason. It's been
Speaker 1: such a good couple of years for crypto. So this
Speaker 1: is generally a good scenario where you're seeing people saying, oh,
Speaker 1: I still am bullish long term, but bear is short
Speaker 1: term because I just think the bitcoin is going to
Speaker 1: go to this based on the seventeen lines I drew
Speaker 1: on trading do.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's funny. I also get comments of you know,
Speaker 2: people who are not allocated to bitcoin. They're like, where's
Speaker 2: the bullmarket. I'm like, the bullmarket is starting January twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three. And because you were misallocated, you didn't have
Speaker 2: some bitcoin your portfolio. You missed a lot of the gains.
Speaker 2: And I keep trying to tell people that, don't be
Speaker 2: max less Randy token and you know, diversify wholesome bitcoin,
Speaker 2: and yes, you can have your all coins, but Bitcoin
Speaker 2: is you know, has the higher probability of seeing those games,
Speaker 2: while certain all coins may not.
Speaker 1: Exactly. Yeah, some people fall in love with whatever coin
Speaker 1: made them the most money the last bull cycle, right,
Speaker 1: and they're just they feel like there's an allegiance to them.
Speaker 1: And to an extent, that's okay. You might believe in
Speaker 1: the long term viability of a certain asset, but if
Speaker 1: you don't diversify, you can miss out on quite a
Speaker 1: few individual runs just based on the cyclical nature of crypto.
Speaker 2: Absolutely all right, Brian. He shows the charts that you're
Speaker 2: looking at. We could start with bitcoin. Maybe we look
Speaker 2: at sentiment.
Speaker 1: You bet, let's start there. I pulled up this handy
Speaker 1: dandy sentiment chart that just looks at the daily ratio
Speaker 1: of all the bullish versus negative comments over the past
Speaker 1: three months here, and generally higher we go, the more
Speaker 1: likely we're getting close to a top. If we get
Speaker 1: super low, we're getting close to bottom. So naturally this
Speaker 1: was a great signal to buy right after Trump announced
Speaker 1: the tariffs, and people were running around like chickens with
Speaker 1: their heads cut off, assuming that we were gonna just
Speaker 1: absolutely fall off a cliff. Of course, after a medium
Speaker 1: sized retrace ended up being the perfect time to buy.
Speaker 1: And I know a ton of people are kicking themselves
Speaker 1: after you know, this bearish bar right here happened. And
Speaker 1: then we went on a about a forty six percent
Speaker 1: run en route to that new all time high in May.
Speaker 1: So since that time, we saw, of course that huge
Speaker 1: bullish spike here. What a coincidence. This is where price
Speaker 1: is top out and we start to go down, and
Speaker 1: then we actually got pretty bearish just about four days ago.
Speaker 1: We're shooting this on the nineteenth. This was on the fifteenth,
Speaker 1: and we ended up going on a little mini rally
Speaker 1: back above one OA. Then people got a little bit
Speaker 1: bullish again and we fell back down. Now we're kind
Speaker 1: of sitting a little in the middle, arguably just slightly bearish.
Speaker 1: We have some other signals here that show more clearly
Speaker 1: how barish people are getting. But just in terms of
Speaker 1: all the overall bullish versus bearish comments that our algorithm
Speaker 1: is picking up, it doesn't look like people are showing
Speaker 1: a lot of patients right now. It's a growing amount
Speaker 1: of frustration if we just look at the overall trend,
Speaker 1: you know, since mid May or so on these gold lines.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know when I look at the bitcoin
Speaker 2: chart on Trading View and I look at like the
Speaker 2: rs I, I think sometimes people don't realize the market
Speaker 2: becomes overheated and they wanted to keep going right, it
Speaker 2: must keep going up, must keep go like like it
Speaker 2: has to go up in a straight line. But mars
Speaker 2: markets are cyclical, and you know this cool down. If
Speaker 2: you look at the rs I and the bitcoin chart,
Speaker 2: it's it looks healthy because it was overbought and then
Speaker 2: now it's going to the oversouled exactly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we've got RSI. Actually I rarely use it because
Speaker 1: it's already so available elsewhere, but I can tell you
Speaker 1: that on the RSI, you know, we did fall back
Speaker 1: below fifty. Let me just get rid of this extra
Speaker 1: line here. So just looking at the RSI first, here's
Speaker 1: the midway point. I know people who really value RSI
Speaker 1: and use it a lot more than I do. But
Speaker 1: from what I've seen in my analysis, this was the
Speaker 1: point in which we fell back below that midway point
Speaker 1: and went into slightly bullish range here, not by much.
Speaker 1: Forty seven is pretty even, but you can see how
Speaker 1: rare it's been over the last two and a half
Speaker 1: months or so for us to actually be below the
Speaker 1: fifty mine for RSI.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I expect, you know, I often tell people, look,
Speaker 2: if we're overbought, you got to anticipate the market's going
Speaker 2: to go to the opposite way when we become oversold
Speaker 2: and sellers, you know, become exhausted, and you know the
Speaker 2: market's going to go the other way. And of course
Speaker 2: the sentiment of follows that which we were talking about.
Speaker 2: The retail heard right, they get very excited when you
Speaker 2: know we're heated up. Everybody's buying, and so forth.
Speaker 1: But it's always that lagging emotional reaction after the fact, right,
Speaker 1: People are way more bullish after a bitcoin goes up
Speaker 1: to one twelve as opposed to being bullish back when
Speaker 1: it's in the low hundred k's or in the ninety ks.
Speaker 1: So it's just the nature of the beast. It's always
Speaker 1: a what have you done for me lately kind of mindset,
Speaker 1: And this is why the majority of retailers lose money
Speaker 1: because they refuse to buy in when everyone else on
Speaker 1: their timeline is spewing the bearish narrative, and they refuse
Speaker 1: to sell when everyone is spewing the bullish narrative. But yeah, absolutely, yeah,
Speaker 1: And I wanted to on a related note to RSI,
Speaker 1: this is kind of like the cousin of RSI is MVRV.
Speaker 1: And here we see that the average returns when you
Speaker 1: take all the addresses that have interacted on the bitcoin
Speaker 1: network in the past thirty days, the average returns are
Speaker 1: at about negative two percent. So that actually is a
Speaker 1: slightly encouraging sign that we could see a bit of
Speaker 1: a rebound. What we didn't want to do is buy in.
Speaker 1: I mean, there were times across mid April to mid
Speaker 1: May where it actually would have worked out as you
Speaker 1: bought in while others were already in profit. But generally
Speaker 1: you want to I love using these emojis when I can.
Speaker 1: Don't buy when you're seeing the MVRV way up here,
Speaker 1: especially like above, I'd say ten percent or so, So
Speaker 1: avoid that zone when you get way up here, and
Speaker 1: then you want to send the rocket ships when we're
Speaker 1: way down below, you know, roughly negative five, negative ten,
Speaker 1: ten percent like we saw. Really the only opportunity we
Speaker 1: saw was back when the tariffs were first announced. But
Speaker 1: it's at least in negative territory now, which is good.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: And you know, I find this data is so valuable
Speaker 2: because it's what the smart money uses.
Speaker 3: They don't they're not welcome by their emotions.
Speaker 2: Oh the price is up, I feel happy today, or
Speaker 2: the price is down, I feel sad. But what is
Speaker 2: the data telling us? And you know this is so
Speaker 2: much in alignment with how the market moves and of
Speaker 2: course a contrarian to the retail sentiment.
Speaker 3: It's it's so fascinating.
Speaker 1: Yeah. And one final thing to say on that, you
Speaker 1: know ninety eight percent or so of your viewers are
Speaker 1: well aware of the concept of buying low and selling high.
Speaker 1: But if we go back, you know, ten years, right,
Speaker 1: let's just look at twenty fifteen to twenty twenty five
Speaker 1: and we'll just look at price by itself. So if
Speaker 1: you look at this chart, you tell me what the
Speaker 1: low and the high is, right, It's impossible when you
Speaker 1: look at different timeframes. And what MVRV does is it
Speaker 1: allows you to understand what the high versus low is
Speaker 1: relative to the average traders that you're competing with. It
Speaker 1: may look like you're all on the same team because
Speaker 1: the timeline is going like we're all going to the moon,
Speaker 1: but the reality is crypto is zero sum game, and
Speaker 1: you don't want to be buying in when everyone else
Speaker 1: is already profited plus fifty percent like they did in
Speaker 1: late November twenty seventeen. And you you do want to
Speaker 1: get in when people are in massive pain like they
Speaker 1: were in May twenty twenty one, or you know, the
Speaker 1: crash in twenty twenty two after the FTX debacle, stuff
Speaker 1: like that. It's there's no better way to know what
Speaker 1: a low versus a high is than looking at MVRV
Speaker 1: in my opinion, and RSI to an extent helps, So yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned what you did.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. So speaking of smart money, what are
Speaker 2: the Whales doing? Are they continuing to accumulate?
Speaker 1: Yeah, And we don't need to even spend a ton
Speaker 1: of time on it because it's kind of just business
Speaker 1: as usual. The trend is basically just to and continued
Speaker 1: accumulation long term. I will note that they've dumped roughly
Speaker 1: thirty thousand bitcoin in the last two ish weeks from
Speaker 1: June third until the latest close yesterday, but it's not
Speaker 1: a giant dump by any means. It's kind of just
Speaker 1: a minor one that I would need to see way
Speaker 1: more before I'm concerned that Bitcoin's about to fall off
Speaker 1: the cliff due to lack of smart money support.
Speaker 2: And if you look at the chart, there was a
Speaker 2: huge spike, So it looks like it could be like
Speaker 2: the Whales who are playing the short term game, and
Speaker 2: then of course they're their long term one, the ones
Speaker 2: that view it from a long term that are slowly
Speaker 2: steadily accumulating. But that spike, I mean, it seems like
Speaker 2: a natural decline off that huge spike.
Speaker 1: You're referring to this June third one right here that
Speaker 1: I'm highlighting. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean between this one
Speaker 1: week between late May or early June, they added about
Speaker 1: one hundred k bitcoin. That was massive, And part of
Speaker 1: the reason they kept accumulating is because prices were actually
Speaker 1: slowly sliding down a bit, giving them more and more
Speaker 1: justification to accumulate more as retailers. We're panicking here, and
Speaker 1: then naturally as we rebounded, that's when they offloaded. So
Speaker 1: they they kind of made a short term play here.
Speaker 1: It looks like where they just simply accumulated for a
Speaker 1: week while it was going down and then dumped for
Speaker 1: a week while it was going up. And now it's
Speaker 1: kind of just when you see prices range. That's actually
Speaker 1: some of the best timing for actually understanding what the
Speaker 1: smart money's real mindset is, because there's they're not just
Speaker 1: accumulating because prices are going down or dumping because the
Speaker 1: prices are going up. They're watching prices kind of stay
Speaker 1: in this one oh three to one oh six k
Speaker 1: range and they're slowly adding more. Meaning it's pretty indisputable
Speaker 1: that they're quite bullish for the mid and long term timeframes.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Absolutely.
Speaker 2: And on that note, how are ETF inflow is looking.
Speaker 2: I saw folks on Bloomberg and so where they were
Speaker 2: highlighting they have been a good amount of inflows.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is looking really good. This is even though
Speaker 1: it's saying June seventeenth on my screen. It's a time
Speaker 1: zone thing, so this was actually the close of yesterday.
Speaker 1: We've now seen seven straight days. Today is actually an
Speaker 1: off day for global stock markets due to June teenth,
Speaker 1: but seven straight days prior to today has been nothing but inflows,
Speaker 1: not a single outflow day since going back to June sixth,
Speaker 1: So it's actually a very encouraging sign that inflows keep
Speaker 1: on coming despite price's sliding mildly over the last what
Speaker 1: forest which actually full week or so?
Speaker 3: Really hmmm? Interesting?
Speaker 2: Now if we could talk stable coins, tether supply, and
Speaker 2: then of course I want to get your thoughts on
Speaker 2: mentions of stable coin because we had the Genius Act
Speaker 2: passing this Senate, so I'm curious what people are saying.
Speaker 2: Are they bullishit about that news and things like that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so for starters, we can just look at the
Speaker 1: overall mentions of stable coins. The redline year is social dominance,
Speaker 1: So this is like the actual percentage of discussions related
Speaker 1: to the word stable coin, USDT or USDC. I might
Speaker 1: as well, add stable coin or stable coins so you
Speaker 1: can get the full picture. Yeah, it's about the same.
Speaker 1: So you can see the social dominance really hit its
Speaker 1: peak about a month from today, month ago, and it's
Speaker 1: back up there now. So it's we're over two percent
Speaker 1: of all discussions in crypto being really related to stable
Speaker 1: coins and USDT and USDC. So people are clearly talking
Speaker 1: about it a lot. But if we get a little
Speaker 1: more crafty here, I can say, let's put all those
Speaker 1: words together, stable coins and the word bullish, and we'll
Speaker 1: see what happens here. Yeah, so you see this big
Speaker 1: spike on June seventeenth, just a couple of days ago. Definitely,
Speaker 1: people are are happy about this overall result and believe
Speaker 1: it's good for crypto. That's what I would take away
Speaker 1: from this.
Speaker 3: Interesting.
Speaker 2: And then as far as tether supply and how that's
Speaker 2: been performing, curious what you're seeing on that front.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's check out. We'll just do a quick look
Speaker 1: at both teather and usd coin to see how the
Speaker 1: supplant exchanges are looking well overall, as well as the
Speaker 1: ratio of all tether. So there's about thirty three and
Speaker 1: a half billion dollars worth of Tether on exchanges right now,
Speaker 1: it's dropped pretty dramatically. Going back to early February, about
Speaker 1: four and a half months of time elapsing has led
Speaker 1: to ten point five to seven billion dollars less of
Speaker 1: tether on exchanges and about fourteen percent of all tether
Speaker 1: less on exchanges right now. So the dry powder that's
Speaker 1: available has declined pretty dramatically for crypto's top stable coin.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and one of the metrics I usually share with
Speaker 2: my listeners and hearers is tether dominance. And obviously in
Speaker 2: the past month or so we saw decline, not a
Speaker 2: full on drop like we saw in Q four of
Speaker 2: last year and even Q one Q two of twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four, but it's getting so I'm curious to see
Speaker 2: how this plays out.
Speaker 3: Could this be the last leg.
Speaker 2: Of the bull market As we head into July, Bitcoin
Speaker 2: maybe goes to one hundred thirty five to one hundred
Speaker 2: and forty k all coins do their final move, or
Speaker 2: you know, maybe the supply starts to reverse. More usdts
Speaker 2: minted as wills come back in.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's interesting. So just to clarify, are you referring
Speaker 1: to Tether's market cap versus the rest of crypto's market cap. Oh, so.
Speaker 2: It's a tether dominance metric on Trading View, so kind
Speaker 2: of like Bitcoin dominance where it shows.
Speaker 1: I think that's market cap. I'm pretty sure that's what
Speaker 1: Trading View refers to if they're Yeah, if they're talking
Speaker 1: about bitcoin dominance, at least we know it's about price
Speaker 1: or or overall market caps, share share bitcoin has versus
Speaker 1: everything else, so tether probably is the same thing.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So I was just checking USDC. By the way, market
Speaker 1: caps pretty flat and supply and exchange this is actually
Speaker 1: going up up. But now let's look at Tether's market
Speaker 1: cap overall, and it's been huge. Yeah, it's a it's
Speaker 1: a massive rise in market cap, which you don't often
Speaker 1: see because Tether's price is always going to be pegged
Speaker 1: at a dollar, but its market cap is still always
Speaker 1: doing its own thing. And yeah, there's about nearly eleven
Speaker 1: eleven billion dollars more market cap over the past two months.
Speaker 2: Hm hmm.
Speaker 1: Interesting, that's a pretty huge rise. Thanks for pointing that out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it could be like if everything goes
Speaker 2: according to plan, and what we see in historically with
Speaker 2: the four year cycles, this, you know, is the blow
Speaker 2: off top here, So I would expect to see the
Speaker 2: stable coin supply increased significantly, specifically around tether, and then
Speaker 2: of course that will move into the crypto market. Then
Speaker 2: it you know, it will cool down as as as
Speaker 2: the prices go up, but then there willation back into
Speaker 2: it as people take profits.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's interesting. I'm just curious because the minting process
Speaker 1: for tea there's always a bit of a mystery. I'm
Speaker 1: sure some people know it pretty well, but if we
Speaker 1: look at the supply outside of exchanges, yeah, it's pretty
Speaker 1: much inverse. So this is it looks like it's a
Speaker 1: pretty direct correlation of coins moving out of exchanges and
Speaker 1: going into cold wallets. I was just curious if there's
Speaker 1: just like a maybe the ratio is going down because
Speaker 1: there's a big boost and minted tether going into cold
Speaker 1: wallets and stuff, which does happen, but it's pretty it
Speaker 1: doesn't look like there's much variation. They're pretty much mirror
Speaker 1: images of each other, right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah for sure. All right, let's talk to some all coins.
Speaker 2: We could start with eight since that's been looking good lately,
Speaker 2: and there's been some pretty positive news as well with
Speaker 2: companies adopting and eth corporate Treasury strategy.
Speaker 1: Mm hmm, Yeah, I wanted to start here. I put
Speaker 1: this out just about an hour ago. It's just a
Speaker 1: nice look at network growth over time. So for those
Speaker 1: kind of doubting Ethereum, now that it's kind of petered
Speaker 1: out at around twenty five hundred and that big rally
Speaker 1: from late May has temporarily come to a stop, we
Speaker 1: look at network growth, which is just the overall amount
Speaker 1: of new addresses being created. Each of these yellow bars
Speaker 1: represents one week over the past year, and there was
Speaker 1: about five hundred and sixty thousand, six hundred and seventy
Speaker 1: thousand new wallets being created per week last summer around
Speaker 1: this time. Now we're up at anywhere between eight hundred
Speaker 1: k to a million, and the long term trend is
Speaker 1: pretty clear. This is the healthiest we've ever seen Ethereum's
Speaker 1: ecosystem look in terms of just overall growth. So I
Speaker 1: am very encouraged by what Ethereum is doing underneath the hood.
Speaker 1: Right now as people obsess over price, you know, the
Speaker 1: long term sustainability is looking stronger than ever.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I'm bullish on eth not just because I'm a token holder,
Speaker 2: just I see a lot of adoption, and there's so
Speaker 2: many layer twos and so many people building on it,
Speaker 2: and I think of similar to what happened with XRP.
Speaker 3: People, Okay, it's a dead coin.
Speaker 2: Nothing's going to happen. Yet it's still in the top ten, right,
Speaker 2: top five is having what's having that similar moment? Everybody, Oh,
Speaker 2: it's dead, it's not doing anything. Solana is the better
Speaker 2: coined and all of a sudden it starts melting faces.
Speaker 2: And I think as the SEC approves staking in eth ETFs.
Speaker 3: Is going to drive a lot of demand.
Speaker 1: I would agree, Yeah, I mean you can if you
Speaker 1: can start to steak from an ETF perspective, that's one
Speaker 1: of the only things that I think was holding it
Speaker 1: back was the risk and holding it on chain and
Speaker 1: ETFs would solve that problem. And if you can start
Speaker 1: to steak on top of that, I mean, get ready
Speaker 1: to open the floodgates. In terms of interested parties. Can
Speaker 1: we look at the MBRV for pre Yeah. By the way,
Speaker 1: funding rate is pretty neutral too. I've been keeping an
Speaker 1: eye on that to see if shorts start to pop up,
Speaker 1: sincet negative sentiments starting to creep in. But in terms
Speaker 1: of MVRV, which is right here looking pretty good. So
Speaker 1: they're both in negative range right now, implying that adding
Speaker 1: on or buying a position is less risky than usual
Speaker 1: at this time. Thirty day mvrvs it about negative three
Speaker 1: point nine percent, three sixty five days about negative six
Speaker 1: point seven percent. So as long as you got both
Speaker 1: of these in negative range. As you can see, the
Speaker 1: last time we had that happen was late April, and yeah,
Speaker 1: that turned out to be a pretty nice formula for
Speaker 1: price rises right after that happened. So we're not as
Speaker 1: extreme in the negative range as we saw when you know,
Speaker 1: people were freaked out about the tariffs. But the fact
Speaker 1: that there we've been in this negative range for short
Speaker 1: and long term traders is a solid sign.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure.
Speaker 2: Let's look at XRP, and that has had a lot
Speaker 2: of big news as well recently. Also, companies looking to
Speaker 2: do treasury use it as a treasury reserve asset.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and by the way, the price has really taken
Speaker 1: a beating. It's not really a reflection of xrps overall viability,
Speaker 1: but it's down seventeen and a half percent over the
Speaker 1: last five weeks or so, so there could be an
Speaker 1: opportunity to buy the dip with some of this positive
Speaker 1: news coming out, I'm seeing plenty of big spikes in
Speaker 1: terms of active addresses like we saw last week, circulation
Speaker 1: spikes in early June. So on chain wise, the network
Speaker 1: looks plenty healthy MVRV wise, you know, because of xrp's
Speaker 1: huge performance at the end of twenty twenty four, there's
Speaker 1: still a lot of average profiting going on long term,
Speaker 1: but at least on the short term basis, you know,
Speaker 1: they're thirty day traders are down about three percent now,
Speaker 1: giving an argument that buying in for the short term
Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense. Now funding rate is super
Speaker 1: neutral at the moment. It would be great if people
Speaker 1: start to doubt XRP, because that would imply those liquidations
Speaker 1: can really shoot up prices with some rocket fuel. But yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't see anything signaling bearishness here. I see a
Speaker 1: lot more positive signs than negative, even dormant tokens. That's
Speaker 1: what this line represents. So when it's going down rather
Speaker 1: than up, it's implying that a lot of stagnant coins
Speaker 1: are moving back into circulation. Especially right here. This big
Speaker 1: bar means there was just a massive amount of XRP
Speaker 1: that moved away from an older wallet that had just
Speaker 1: been sitting and hotling a bunch of coins, and they
Speaker 1: moved it back in their circulation, and right afterwards we
Speaker 1: see that big jump. So we look for slopes in
Speaker 1: that Whoops, didn't need to click on that. We look
Speaker 1: for slopes in this yellow line here because it implies
Speaker 1: that the network is younger in terms of the average
Speaker 1: coins being held in each specific wallet. So I like
Speaker 1: the look of XRP.
Speaker 3: Interesting.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it feels like, you know, going back to
Speaker 2: what we were talking about with the cyclical move of
Speaker 2: the market with RSI and MBRV for bitcoin, and you know,
Speaker 2: a bitcoin leads to the market if Bitcoin was the
Speaker 2: bottom in the coming weeks or so, and then start moving,
Speaker 2: I think we will know that. We know these all
Speaker 2: coins generally follow, so we could see a nice bounce
Speaker 2: for e the XRP and some of the others. Mm
Speaker 2: hm agree. How about Solana, what do you think on
Speaker 2: that front?
Speaker 1: So Solana, we just have social data as well as
Speaker 1: some transaction volume data. Now we've been actively working on
Speaker 1: getting the blockchain data onto Santiment's network, so we're actually
Speaker 1: super excited to finally have transaction volume you can actually
Speaker 1: see the turning point when there was a huge transaction
Speaker 1: volume spike followed by a drop down. These big spikes
Speaker 1: often signal a turning point, as you can see even
Speaker 1: here in late April, we're going way up. We see
Speaker 1: this spike, start to go down, we start to go down.
Speaker 1: We see the spike and we begin to rebound. We
Speaker 1: go up here, biggest spike of the year, and we
Speaker 1: start to go down. So that's interesting to see on
Speaker 1: Solana side, which has actually slid about twenty two percent
Speaker 1: in the last five weeks. If we look at the
Speaker 1: sentiment and funding rate, by the way, is looking neutral,
Speaker 1: but if we look at social dominance, it's not getting
Speaker 1: talked about much right now. It's actually quite quite low.
Speaker 1: This is just the percentage of discussions related to Solana
Speaker 1: versus other cryptocurrencies, and it's kind of at its base
Speaker 1: of a little over three percent now. When there are
Speaker 1: moments where it's above ten percent, and that's when people
Speaker 1: are really really getting behind Solana, or at least it's
Speaker 1: becoming polarizing, which is generally good for the asset. And
Speaker 1: if we just look at the bullish versus bearish sentiment, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's it's come down quite a bit. There's still about
Speaker 1: four bullish comments for every one bearish comment. Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: it kind of just looks like Solana is being glossed
Speaker 1: over right now as people are distracted by others.
Speaker 3: Interesting.
Speaker 2: I wonder if some of the I'm should I put it,
Speaker 2: the bullishness has calmed down obviously in general because the
Speaker 2: market is cool then, right, But also the meme coin
Speaker 2: movement has kind of digged down in a way.
Speaker 3: Don't get me wrong.
Speaker 2: There's still meme coins out there, some that may be
Speaker 2: performing okay, but there's not that that retail excitement, you know,
Speaker 2: going after these new meme coins and much more.
Speaker 1: Yeah, great point, Tony. I do think that Solana is
Speaker 1: one of those ecosystems that's strongly tied to meme coin performance.
Speaker 1: And if the more speculator speculator wow, speculative driven assets
Speaker 1: start to dry up, Solana itself gets a bit of
Speaker 1: a hit. And you can see just in the last
Speaker 1: week it's kind of a sea of red. There's always
Speaker 1: a few, you know, exceptions out there, but I'd say,
Speaker 1: what ninety to ninety five percent of the assets we're
Speaker 1: looking at here are bleeding quite a bit.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and even though there's been like some news around
Speaker 2: Solana Corporate Treasury, I know the ETF, the SPOTTYTF is
Speaker 2: making some level of progress with the SEC asking for
Speaker 2: comments and much more, it hasn't gotten much traction and
Speaker 2: that could be, you know, going back to the meme
Speaker 2: coin situation, because a lot of what maybe caught people's
Speaker 2: attention around Salona over the past year has been the
Speaker 2: meme coins versus other things.
Speaker 3: Completely agree interesting.
Speaker 2: Good stuff, Brian, And as always, you know, if we're
Speaker 2: meeting in the next two weeks, I think there's crossed that.
Speaker 2: You know, we're finding a bounce, Bitcoin is bottom of bouncing,
Speaker 2: and then the alts fallow and you know what we
Speaker 2: can be charted looking at different data.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think July is going to be a big month,
Speaker 1: not necessarily bullish or bearish, but it'll be big in
Speaker 1: terms of news because we've got, of course, the conflict
Speaker 1: between Israel and Iran heating up and that's impacting markets.
Speaker 1: But even bigger than that, in my opinion, not in
Speaker 1: terms of real world importance but in terms of crypto markets,
Speaker 1: would be the Terriff situation because we've had this ninety
Speaker 1: day China and US tariffs, and that's going to kind
Speaker 1: of reach its head in mid to late July, if
Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken. And then the EU and the US
Speaker 1: also have a pause. So everything's been kind of kicked
Speaker 1: down the road, and come about thirty to forty five
Speaker 1: days from now, it's it's all gonna start. We're gonna
Speaker 1: find out how real these negotiations have been.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point. I forgot about that. They
Speaker 2: just paused it and pushed it out. Maybe the Trump
Speaker 2: does that again and that allows markets to feel bullish,
Speaker 2: get similar to what you know, what we saw with
Speaker 2: the v shape recovery for the stock market and everything,
Speaker 2: and that sends us higher.
Speaker 3: But we'll have to wait and see.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, thanks for having me as always, Tony
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, Thanks Brian,