Speaker 1: Hey, everyone, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
Speaker 1: for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
Speaker 1: On your way in. Please hit that subscribe button as
Speaker 1: well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below.
Speaker 1: If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify
Speaker 1: or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Well, folks,
Speaker 1: needless to say, it is bloody out there today. Bitcoin
Speaker 1: crash and of course all coins are following. And Bitcoin
Speaker 1: went below eighty thousand dollars. Is flash crashed down to
Speaker 1: seventy five k, you know, essentially retesting that support of
Speaker 1: back in April of twenty twenty five. Now, overall the
Speaker 1: structures still intact. We're looking at the daily chart here
Speaker 1: of higher highs and highre lows. But keep it real
Speaker 1: with you, guys. If this thing goes down further, then
Speaker 1: that thesis is invalidated, right, and we're gonna have to
Speaker 1: go back to the drawing board. But this is where
Speaker 1: we often have to wait for the market to show
Speaker 1: us what it wants to do, because we don't have
Speaker 1: a crystal ball. We're just going to use the data
Speaker 1: and look at the different scenarios and look at which
Speaker 1: one has the higher probability of playing out. A good
Speaker 1: sign is that Bitcoin on the daily chart is extremely
Speaker 1: over sold. The RSI is below thirty. That's textbook, right,
Speaker 1: That is not feelings and motions or opium. That is
Speaker 1: simply textbook. You go look it up on the charts
Speaker 1: and study that. You will see the same thing I'm
Speaker 1: showing you here. Even on the weekly chart, we are
Speaker 1: approaching that over soul zone. So a bottom is forming
Speaker 1: here and we're gonna have to wait and see how
Speaker 1: long takes the form the bottom, because that could play
Speaker 1: out over weeks right before we bounce. But when you
Speaker 1: have this type of setup plus extreme fear plus the
Speaker 1: whyke off accumulation model we've been tracking for the past
Speaker 1: four weeks, we see that a spring is coming. The
Speaker 1: RSI is validating that the bottom is very close to
Speaker 1: being in, and again the sentiment is in extreme fear.
Speaker 1: Where these are condition conducive to a reversal. Right, markets
Speaker 1: are cyclical, they don't go down forever, and things along
Speaker 1: those lines, And even the two week RSI is now
Speaker 1: approaching the zone where all major cycle bottoms have been found.
Speaker 1: And when you zoom in on a weekly chart, RSI,
Speaker 1: you're seeing we're at the levels. We're very near the
Speaker 1: levels of the FTX collapse of November December twenty twenty
Speaker 1: two and December twenty eighteen when bitcoin went down to
Speaker 1: three k and those were the bottoms, right, and then
Speaker 1: we saw a reversal. Now, did it happen overnight, No,
Speaker 1: of course not. It played out over weeks and that
Speaker 1: led to rallies. So I expect a rally for bitcoin,
Speaker 1: some sort of reversal. The question is is it simply
Speaker 1: just a relief rally that does not go to new
Speaker 1: highs and it rolls over and we go lower. Right,
Speaker 1: That's possible. So I'm giving you the bear scenario or
Speaker 1: the bullet scenario of we bounce and continue to go
Speaker 1: higher because again that higher low structure is still intact. Now,
Speaker 1: like I said, let's see what happens. Maybe gets invalidated, right,
Speaker 1: and then we're gonna have to say, yeah, that's it. Then. Look,
Speaker 1: I've been I remember tweeting about this. I think it
Speaker 1: was about a month ago. I said, if this is
Speaker 1: the top of the market and we don't get crypto
Speaker 1: market structure bill passed, then we got bamboozled. And this
Speaker 1: is gonna be a bad reflection on Trump because he,
Speaker 1: you know, obviously launched a meme coin, a bunch of
Speaker 1: crypto projects, and this is what we get, right. So
Speaker 1: it might have been better that we stayed under against
Speaker 1: her and these things, because at least the market was
Speaker 1: moving and we were, you know, still making new highs
Speaker 1: in those things. But we shall see how it plays out,
Speaker 1: and let's see what the week brings us. But it's
Speaker 1: pretty tough. You know. There are people out there saying, look,
Speaker 1: we're going lower here Peter Brandt and I look, I
Speaker 1: know he's shorting. I know his tweets. You know, he's saying,
Speaker 1: next stop is fifty eighth street. The conductor of will
Speaker 1: be coming through the trained collecting tickets to make sure
Speaker 1: you're on the right train to Choo bigcoin. So done
Speaker 1: with silver, it is yesterday's story. So he's saying fifty
Speaker 1: eight thousand is next. Could he be right? It's possible,
Speaker 1: but it doesn't mean he is. So again, it's about
Speaker 1: probabilities here and we shall see how it plays out. Now,
Speaker 1: many of you know, gold and silver are breaking down significantly.
Speaker 1: I think they may have hit their top, if not
Speaker 1: a local top. So we shall see. Even the stock
Speaker 1: market is showing some weakness here, look at the NASDA
Speaker 1: gets in the red. So it's the SMP five hundred.
Speaker 1: So we're going to have to watch and see how
Speaker 1: the stock market is performing because you know, usually crypto
Speaker 1: follows the same direction as the stock market. So it's
Speaker 1: a pretty bloody, bloody weekend and even past week right
Speaker 1: gold silver crypto to stock market, everything is down. It
Speaker 1: is pretty brutal out there. But again, if we're looking
Speaker 1: at the metrics right, we are seeing the conditions for
Speaker 1: a reversal. Again, it doesn't happen overnight, so this could
Speaker 1: play out over a few weeks, and we will have
Speaker 1: to wait till Monday to get data from Sentiment. You know,
Speaker 1: one of the things I was highlighting, and even in
Speaker 1: my interview with Brian from Santiment that was published on Wednesday,
Speaker 1: we talked about the retail crowd was still accumulating even
Speaker 1: though they started slowing down a bit. We want to
Speaker 1: see less of that. So this big crash could have
Speaker 1: shaken out some of these hands and hopefully that starts
Speaker 1: rolling over. The reason being, the whales always pump the
Speaker 1: market when the retail is going down. When they are
Speaker 1: scared and they're panicked. Right, I don't make the rules.
Speaker 1: This is just the data. This is how markets play out,
Speaker 1: and markets love to do the opposite of the herds.
Speaker 1: Of the herd is still bullish, and they were accumulating.
Speaker 1: Then you can see here whales are going to slow
Speaker 1: their accumulation. But once retail starts going in the opposite direction,
Speaker 1: the whales pick up the momentum. The market makers jump
Speaker 1: on board and boom, it starts rallying. Then people fomo
Speaker 1: back in that's what they want. It's the same thing
Speaker 1: over and over. And when I realized this, it was
Speaker 1: so eye opening for me because I used to be
Speaker 1: one of the retail who was not looking at data
Speaker 1: and just moving by my emotions, getting and going through
Speaker 1: fear and greed and anger and depression all that. Now
Speaker 1: I see the crash. I'm like, okay, buying opportunity buy
Speaker 1: not financial advice. Obviously, do your research, right, But the
Speaker 1: point is I'm now working alongside of smart money. And
Speaker 1: that's why I was buying in November and December of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, buying bitcoin at fifteen K sixteen K,
Speaker 1: buying XRP and all the other coins at Low's and lows.
Speaker 1: So as we went through the bull market and we
Speaker 1: started going up, my portfolio is going up versus people
Speaker 1: who went and bought tops and bought pumps, right, So
Speaker 1: I see this as an opportunity to get in. And
Speaker 1: even Barry Silbert, the founder of Grayscale and the Digital
Speaker 1: Currency Group, he tweeted out, this is a gift from
Speaker 1: the crypto gods, clearing out the leverage crap tokens, A
Speaker 1: massive capital rotation into cryptos about to begin. Time to
Speaker 1: pick up your fighter. My picks, Bitcoin, etherorem Solana, z, cash,
Speaker 1: chow bitsensor, subnet tokens. So we shall see again. Doesn't
Speaker 1: mean he's right. I gave you Peter Brandt's bearish scenario.
Speaker 1: I gave you some the bullish charts and even bullish
Speaker 1: statements some big players in the crypto market. So we
Speaker 1: shall see which one plays out, folks, and we're gonna
Speaker 1: have to adjust our strategy accordingly. Now there is cost
Speaker 1: per concern when it comes to Michael Sailor and somebody's
Speaker 1: crypto treasury companies. So bitcoin has officially fallen below strategies
Speaker 1: average cost basis of seventy six and thirty seven dollars. Now,
Speaker 1: obviously Bitcoin bounce from this price point, but still, you know,
Speaker 1: something to watch out. And even bitmind, tom Ley's bitmine,
Speaker 1: it's facing a six billion dollar paper loss as the
Speaker 1: ethereum sell off deepened. So of course all coins they
Speaker 1: bleed out worse than bitcoin, right, this is just the
Speaker 1: nature of the market. So we got to watch these
Speaker 1: crypto treasury companies because some of them collapse. It's possible.
Speaker 1: You know. The big difference with bitmind is that you
Speaker 1: can stake eth and keep earning rewards, so it brings
Speaker 1: in revenue in these things. Right, But this is a
Speaker 1: big hit, needless to say, and to many of these
Speaker 1: crypto treasury companies, and hopefully they positioned themselves for these downturns.
Speaker 1: You know, I'm sure many of you saw my interviews
Speaker 1: when many of these folks and I always ask them
Speaker 1: what happens in a market downturn or a bear market
Speaker 1: or some sort of crash, how are you going to
Speaker 1: be able to handle that? Right? So this is where
Speaker 1: we shall see, as a warn Buffet says, when the
Speaker 1: tide goes out, you see who's swimming naked, right, So
Speaker 1: we're gonna see what's going on Folks, this episode is
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Speaker 1: the description. Now, folks, this is interesting. Brian Armstrong dubbed
Speaker 1: as the enemy number one of Wall Street in this
Speaker 1: weekend's Wall Street Journal. So he's on the front page
Speaker 1: and it says that Crypto's CEO who's become the enemy
Speaker 1: number one on Wall Street? You know who's behind this,
Speaker 1: Jamie Diamond. Folks, we've been talking about it. Right, yesterday
Speaker 1: we talked about the state that were revealed of what
Speaker 1: Jamie Diamond said to Brian Armstrong, that he's full of
Speaker 1: shit and all kinds of stuff, right, because Brian's been
Speaker 1: exposing the banks big time, talking about how they're fighting back.
Speaker 1: You know, they are trying to block stable coin yield.
Speaker 1: They don't want competition, and you know, we've talked a
Speaker 1: lot about it. Right, Jamie wants to keep those big
Speaker 1: fat bonus checks. He doesn't want to give you any
Speaker 1: fair interests or yield. He wants to give you zero
Speaker 1: point zero one percent and he keeps the you know,
Speaker 1: millions and billions of dollars. Guys. This this is the game.
Speaker 1: But you know, crypto is fighting the word and knowledge
Speaker 1: and all these things are getting out there. The consumer
Speaker 1: is getting educated. So it's amazing. Jamie Diamond's pulling out
Speaker 1: all the tricks here and you know, trying to plaster
Speaker 1: Brian on the front of the Wall Street journals saying
Speaker 1: they are the enemy and much more. It's it's really wild.
Speaker 1: But you know, like the saying goes, first they ignore you,
Speaker 1: then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then
Speaker 1: you win. So we are going through those phases, folks.
Speaker 1: Final news item, European Commission calls on twelve countries to
Speaker 1: implement crypto tax rules. So we are seeing across the
Speaker 1: globe the implementation of rules and regulation. So the European
Speaker 1: Commission said it will send formal notices to twelve countries
Speaker 1: for failing to fully implement the EU's tax reporting rules
Speaker 1: for digital assets in its January Infringement's package released on Friday.
Speaker 1: The Commission, which serves as the European Union body responsible
Speaker 1: for proposing legislation and ensuring member states followed certain laws
Speaker 1: and regulations, said Belgium, Bulgaria, Chechnya, Estonia, Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Luxembourg,
Speaker 1: Malta and the Netherlands, Poland and Portugal would face letters
Speaker 1: of formal notice to fully implement the new tax, currency
Speaker 1: and information exchange rules on crypto assets. So we know
Speaker 1: the EU has the MIKA regulations and look they're going
Speaker 1: to make all these countries get in line again, not banning,
Speaker 1: just everything needs to be tracked reporting taxes. You know
Speaker 1: the tax man's going to come first cut. So we
Speaker 1: know blockchain and cryptos here to stay. Again, you're not
Speaker 1: banning it, and the future markets, economies and governments will
Speaker 1: all run on blockchain rails. So the infrastructure is being
Speaker 1: set up here, guys, and it's important to know what's happening,
Speaker 1: especially if you live in some of these countries. Orry, guys,
Speaker 1: that's the news again, bloody day. Let me know what
Speaker 1: you think about some of the data I shared about
Speaker 1: the RTS side of US. I think bottoming out because
Speaker 1: that's a metric and a signal that you can that
Speaker 1: is textbook that you can use to get an idea
Speaker 1: of where we're at into volatility, moves and so forth.
Speaker 1: And please be sure to sign up for my newsletter.
Speaker 1: I know, I told you guys, I was going to
Speaker 1: publish on Friday, but then the market started moving and
Speaker 1: I said, let me hold off so I can give
Speaker 1: you the most relevant write up and charts and so forth,
Speaker 1: Because if you know, you don't want to catch a
Speaker 1: falling knife or say, oh, this is happening while the
Speaker 1: knife is still falling, right, So let's see if the
Speaker 1: market calms down tomorrow and I'll do it write up
Speaker 1: and you know, you guys can read through all the
Speaker 1: different charts and data points and take your time to
Speaker 1: come through it. So make sure you subscribe. It's one
Speaker 1: hundred percent free on substack. Also, grab a copy of
Speaker 1: my book on Amazon. It's available in paperback, in digital,
Speaker 1: and my course at mycryptocurse dot com. This is a
Speaker 1: comprehensive course that teaches you everything you need to know
Speaker 1: about crypto folks, thank you so much for tuning in.
Speaker 1: I appreciate you all, and I'll talk to you all
Speaker 1: later