WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, everyone, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home

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<v Speaker 1>for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.

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<v Speaker 1>On your way in. Please hit that subscribe button as

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<v Speaker 1>well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify

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<v Speaker 1>or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Well, folks,

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<v Speaker 1>needless to say, it is bloody out there today. Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>crash and of course all coins are following. And Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>went below eighty thousand dollars. Is flash crashed down to

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<v Speaker 1>seventy five k, you know, essentially retesting that support of

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<v Speaker 1>back in April of twenty twenty five. Now, overall the

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<v Speaker 1>structures still intact. We're looking at the daily chart here

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<v Speaker 1>of higher highs and highre lows. But keep it real

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<v Speaker 1>with you, guys. If this thing goes down further, then

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<v Speaker 1>that thesis is invalidated, right, and we're gonna have to

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<v Speaker 1>go back to the drawing board. But this is where

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<v Speaker 1>we often have to wait for the market to show

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<v Speaker 1>us what it wants to do, because we don't have

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<v Speaker 1>a crystal ball. We're just going to use the data

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<v Speaker 1>and look at the different scenarios and look at which

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<v Speaker 1>one has the higher probability of playing out. A good

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<v Speaker 1>sign is that Bitcoin on the daily chart is extremely

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<v Speaker 1>over sold. The RSI is below thirty. That's textbook, right,

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<v Speaker 1>That is not feelings and motions or opium. That is

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<v Speaker 1>simply textbook. You go look it up on the charts

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<v Speaker 1>and study that. You will see the same thing I'm

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<v Speaker 1>showing you here. Even on the weekly chart, we are

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<v Speaker 1>approaching that over soul zone. So a bottom is forming

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<v Speaker 1>here and we're gonna have to wait and see how

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<v Speaker 1>long takes the form the bottom, because that could play

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<v Speaker 1>out over weeks right before we bounce. But when you

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<v Speaker 1>have this type of setup plus extreme fear plus the

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<v Speaker 1>whyke off accumulation model we've been tracking for the past

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<v Speaker 1>four weeks, we see that a spring is coming. The

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<v Speaker 1>RSI is validating that the bottom is very close to

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<v Speaker 1>being in, and again the sentiment is in extreme fear.

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<v Speaker 1>Where these are condition conducive to a reversal. Right, markets

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<v Speaker 1>are cyclical, they don't go down forever, and things along

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<v Speaker 1>those lines, And even the two week RSI is now

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<v Speaker 1>approaching the zone where all major cycle bottoms have been found.

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<v Speaker 1>And when you zoom in on a weekly chart, RSI,

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<v Speaker 1>you're seeing we're at the levels. We're very near the

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<v Speaker 1>levels of the FTX collapse of November December twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 1>two and December twenty eighteen when bitcoin went down to

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<v Speaker 1>three k and those were the bottoms, right, and then

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<v Speaker 1>we saw a reversal. Now, did it happen overnight, No,

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<v Speaker 1>of course not. It played out over weeks and that

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<v Speaker 1>led to rallies. So I expect a rally for bitcoin,

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<v Speaker 1>some sort of reversal. The question is is it simply

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<v Speaker 1>just a relief rally that does not go to new

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<v Speaker 1>highs and it rolls over and we go lower. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>That's possible. So I'm giving you the bear scenario or

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<v Speaker 1>the bullet scenario of we bounce and continue to go

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<v Speaker 1>higher because again that higher low structure is still intact. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>like I said, let's see what happens. Maybe gets invalidated, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and then we're gonna have to say, yeah, that's it. Then. Look,

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<v Speaker 1>I've been I remember tweeting about this. I think it

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<v Speaker 1>was about a month ago. I said, if this is

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<v Speaker 1>the top of the market and we don't get crypto

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<v Speaker 1>market structure bill passed, then we got bamboozled. And this

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<v Speaker 1>is gonna be a bad reflection on Trump because he,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, obviously launched a meme coin, a bunch of

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<v Speaker 1>crypto projects, and this is what we get, right. So

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<v Speaker 1>it might have been better that we stayed under against

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<v Speaker 1>her and these things, because at least the market was

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<v Speaker 1>moving and we were, you know, still making new highs

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<v Speaker 1>in those things. But we shall see how it plays out,

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<v Speaker 1>and let's see what the week brings us. But it's

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<v Speaker 1>pretty tough. You know. There are people out there saying, look,

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<v Speaker 1>we're going lower here Peter Brandt and I look, I

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<v Speaker 1>know he's shorting. I know his tweets. You know, he's saying,

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<v Speaker 1>next stop is fifty eighth street. The conductor of will

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<v Speaker 1>be coming through the trained collecting tickets to make sure

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<v Speaker 1>you're on the right train to Choo bigcoin. So done

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<v Speaker 1>with silver, it is yesterday's story. So he's saying fifty

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<v Speaker 1>eight thousand is next. Could he be right? It's possible,

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<v Speaker 1>but it doesn't mean he is. So again, it's about

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<v Speaker 1>probabilities here and we shall see how it plays out. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>many of you know, gold and silver are breaking down significantly.

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<v Speaker 1>I think they may have hit their top, if not

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<v Speaker 1>a local top. So we shall see. Even the stock

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<v Speaker 1>market is showing some weakness here, look at the NASDA

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<v Speaker 1>gets in the red. So it's the SMP five hundred.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're going to have to watch and see how

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<v Speaker 1>the stock market is performing because you know, usually crypto

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<v Speaker 1>follows the same direction as the stock market. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty bloody, bloody weekend and even past week right

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<v Speaker 1>gold silver crypto to stock market, everything is down. It

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<v Speaker 1>is pretty brutal out there. But again, if we're looking

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<v Speaker 1>at the metrics right, we are seeing the conditions for

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<v Speaker 1>a reversal. Again, it doesn't happen overnight, so this could

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<v Speaker 1>play out over a few weeks, and we will have

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<v Speaker 1>to wait till Monday to get data from Sentiment. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the things I was highlighting, and even in

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<v Speaker 1>my interview with Brian from Santiment that was published on Wednesday,

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<v Speaker 1>we talked about the retail crowd was still accumulating even

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<v Speaker 1>though they started slowing down a bit. We want to

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<v Speaker 1>see less of that. So this big crash could have

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<v Speaker 1>shaken out some of these hands and hopefully that starts

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<v Speaker 1>rolling over. The reason being, the whales always pump the

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<v Speaker 1>market when the retail is going down. When they are

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<v Speaker 1>scared and they're panicked. Right, I don't make the rules.

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<v Speaker 1>This is just the data. This is how markets play out,

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<v Speaker 1>and markets love to do the opposite of the herds.

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<v Speaker 1>Of the herd is still bullish, and they were accumulating.

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<v Speaker 1>Then you can see here whales are going to slow

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<v Speaker 1>their accumulation. But once retail starts going in the opposite direction,

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<v Speaker 1>the whales pick up the momentum. The market makers jump

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<v Speaker 1>on board and boom, it starts rallying. Then people fomo

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<v Speaker 1>back in that's what they want. It's the same thing

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<v Speaker 1>over and over. And when I realized this, it was

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<v Speaker 1>so eye opening for me because I used to be

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<v Speaker 1>one of the retail who was not looking at data

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<v Speaker 1>and just moving by my emotions, getting and going through

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<v Speaker 1>fear and greed and anger and depression all that. Now

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<v Speaker 1>I see the crash. I'm like, okay, buying opportunity buy

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<v Speaker 1>not financial advice. Obviously, do your research, right, But the

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<v Speaker 1>point is I'm now working alongside of smart money. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's why I was buying in November and December of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty two, buying bitcoin at fifteen K sixteen K,

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<v Speaker 1>buying XRP and all the other coins at Low's and lows.

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<v Speaker 1>So as we went through the bull market and we

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<v Speaker 1>started going up, my portfolio is going up versus people

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<v Speaker 1>who went and bought tops and bought pumps, right, So

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<v Speaker 1>I see this as an opportunity to get in. And

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<v Speaker 1>even Barry Silbert, the founder of Grayscale and the Digital

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<v Speaker 1>Currency Group, he tweeted out, this is a gift from

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<v Speaker 1>the crypto gods, clearing out the leverage crap tokens, A

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<v Speaker 1>massive capital rotation into cryptos about to begin. Time to

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<v Speaker 1>pick up your fighter. My picks, Bitcoin, etherorem Solana, z, cash,

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<v Speaker 1>chow bitsensor, subnet tokens. So we shall see again. Doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>mean he's right. I gave you Peter Brandt's bearish scenario.

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<v Speaker 1>I gave you some the bullish charts and even bullish

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<v Speaker 1>statements some big players in the crypto market. So we

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<v Speaker 1>shall see which one plays out, folks, and we're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>have to adjust our strategy accordingly. Now there is cost

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<v Speaker 1>per concern when it comes to Michael Sailor and somebody's

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<v Speaker 1>crypto treasury companies. So bitcoin has officially fallen below strategies

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<v Speaker 1>average cost basis of seventy six and thirty seven dollars. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>obviously Bitcoin bounce from this price point, but still, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>something to watch out. And even bitmind, tom Ley's bitmine,

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<v Speaker 1>it's facing a six billion dollar paper loss as the

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<v Speaker 1>ethereum sell off deepened. So of course all coins they

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<v Speaker 1>bleed out worse than bitcoin, right, this is just the

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<v Speaker 1>nature of the market. So we got to watch these

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<v Speaker 1>crypto treasury companies because some of them collapse. It's possible.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. The big difference with bitmind is that you

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<v Speaker 1>can stake eth and keep earning rewards, so it brings

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<v Speaker 1>in revenue in these things. Right, But this is a

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<v Speaker 1>big hit, needless to say, and to many of these

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<v Speaker 1>crypto treasury companies, and hopefully they positioned themselves for these downturns.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I'm sure many of you saw my interviews

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<v Speaker 1>when many of these folks and I always ask them

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<v Speaker 1>what happens in a market downturn or a bear market

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<v Speaker 1>or some sort of crash, how are you going to

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<v Speaker 1>be able to handle that? Right? So this is where

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<v Speaker 1>we shall see, as a warn Buffet says, when the

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<v Speaker 1>tide goes out, you see who's swimming naked, right, So

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna see what's going on Folks, this episode is

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<v Speaker 1>brought to you by Treasure, which makes self custoding of

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<v Speaker 1>a user of the devices. I use the Treasure Save

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<v Speaker 1>hardware wallet, they created a seed phrase setup, and then

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<v Speaker 1>other competitors came around and their new device, the Treasure

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<v Speaker 1>Saved seven, is Quantum ready. It uses top of the

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<v Speaker 1>line security. It's a beautiful device, fits really well in

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<v Speaker 1>your hands and has a huge screen. And they support

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<v Speaker 1>all the major tokens and assets folks, Bitcoin, Salona, xrpe Theorem, Cardono,

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<v Speaker 1>doche coin, and many others. You can go down the

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<v Speaker 1>list here, even new tokens. They have a great software

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<v Speaker 1>suite called Treasure Suite which helps you to manage your

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<v Speaker 1>assets and of course you can buy and sell within that.

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<v Speaker 1>They also have a handholding service, so if you buy

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<v Speaker 1>the device and you need to talk to someone from

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<v Speaker 1>Treasure to help you get things set up, they have

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<v Speaker 1>that service, which is really great. Not many crypto companies do.

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<v Speaker 1>And don't worry, they do not ask you for your

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<v Speaker 1>private key, so you don't have to worry about that.

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<v Speaker 1>And folks, if you use my code thinking Crypto all

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<v Speaker 1>one word, thinking Crypto, you can get five percent off

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<v Speaker 1>your purchase. So check out treasure link would be in

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<v Speaker 1>the description. Now, folks, this is interesting. Brian Armstrong dubbed

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<v Speaker 1>as the enemy number one of Wall Street in this

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<v Speaker 1>weekend's Wall Street Journal. So he's on the front page

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<v Speaker 1>and it says that Crypto's CEO who's become the enemy

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<v Speaker 1>number one on Wall Street? You know who's behind this,

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<v Speaker 1>Jamie Diamond. Folks, we've been talking about it. Right, yesterday

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<v Speaker 1>we talked about the state that were revealed of what

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<v Speaker 1>Jamie Diamond said to Brian Armstrong, that he's full of

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<v Speaker 1>shit and all kinds of stuff, right, because Brian's been

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<v Speaker 1>exposing the banks big time, talking about how they're fighting back.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, they are trying to block stable coin yield.

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<v Speaker 1>They don't want competition, and you know, we've talked a

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<v Speaker 1>lot about it. Right, Jamie wants to keep those big

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<v Speaker 1>fat bonus checks. He doesn't want to give you any

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<v Speaker 1>fair interests or yield. He wants to give you zero

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<v Speaker 1>point zero one percent and he keeps the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>millions and billions of dollars. Guys. This this is the game.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, crypto is fighting the word and knowledge

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<v Speaker 1>and all these things are getting out there. The consumer

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<v Speaker 1>is getting educated. So it's amazing. Jamie Diamond's pulling out

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<v Speaker 1>all the tricks here and you know, trying to plaster

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<v Speaker 1>Brian on the front of the Wall Street journals saying

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<v Speaker 1>they are the enemy and much more. It's it's really wild.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, like the saying goes, first they ignore you,

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<v Speaker 1>then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then

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<v Speaker 1>you win. So we are going through those phases, folks.

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<v Speaker 1>Final news item, European Commission calls on twelve countries to

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<v Speaker 1>implement crypto tax rules. So we are seeing across the

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<v Speaker 1>globe the implementation of rules and regulation. So the European

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<v Speaker 1>Commission said it will send formal notices to twelve countries

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<v Speaker 1>for failing to fully implement the EU's tax reporting rules

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<v Speaker 1>for digital assets in its January Infringement's package released on Friday.

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<v Speaker 1>The Commission, which serves as the European Union body responsible

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<v Speaker 1>for proposing legislation and ensuring member states followed certain laws

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<v Speaker 1>and regulations, said Belgium, Bulgaria, Chechnya, Estonia, Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Luxembourg,

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<v Speaker 1>Malta and the Netherlands, Poland and Portugal would face letters

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<v Speaker 1>of formal notice to fully implement the new tax, currency

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<v Speaker 1>and information exchange rules on crypto assets. So we know

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<v Speaker 1>the EU has the MIKA regulations and look they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to make all these countries get in line again, not banning,

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<v Speaker 1>just everything needs to be tracked reporting taxes. You know

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<v Speaker 1>the tax man's going to come first cut. So we

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<v Speaker 1>know blockchain and cryptos here to stay. Again, you're not

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<v Speaker 1>banning it, and the future markets, economies and governments will

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<v Speaker 1>all run on blockchain rails. So the infrastructure is being

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<v Speaker 1>set up here, guys, and it's important to know what's happening,

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<v Speaker 1>especially if you live in some of these countries. Orry, guys,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the news again, bloody day. Let me know what

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<v Speaker 1>you think about some of the data I shared about

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<v Speaker 1>the RTS side of US. I think bottoming out because

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<v Speaker 1>that's a metric and a signal that you can that

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<v Speaker 1>is textbook that you can use to get an idea

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<v Speaker 1>of where we're at into volatility, moves and so forth.

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<v Speaker 1>And please be sure to sign up for my newsletter.

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<v Speaker 1>I know, I told you guys, I was going to

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<v Speaker 1>publish on Friday, but then the market started moving and

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<v Speaker 1>I said, let me hold off so I can give

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<v Speaker 1>you the most relevant write up and charts and so forth,

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<v Speaker 1>Because if you know, you don't want to catch a

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<v Speaker 1>falling knife or say, oh, this is happening while the

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<v Speaker 1>knife is still falling, right, So let's see if the

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<v Speaker 1>market calms down tomorrow and I'll do it write up

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, you guys can read through all the

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<v Speaker 1>different charts and data points and take your time to

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<v Speaker 1>come through it. So make sure you subscribe. It's one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred percent free on substack. Also, grab a copy of

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<v Speaker 1>my book on Amazon. It's available in paperback, in digital,

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<v Speaker 1>and my course at mycryptocurse dot com. This is a

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<v Speaker 1>comprehensive course that teaches you everything you need to know

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<v Speaker 1>about crypto folks, thank you so much for tuning in.

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<v Speaker 1>I appreciate you all, and I'll talk to you all

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<v Speaker 1>later