1 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:25,440 Speaker 1: And welcome one and all. How are you welcome to 2 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:30,000 the Big podcast? Is Thursday. Today is the eleventh day 3 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:34,079 of June, year of although twenty twenty six. My name 4 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:39,920 is Tom Sullivan. And forgive me, but I've got a whiplash. Yes, 5 00:00:40,039 --> 00:00:43,119 I have a whiplash. We had everything all lined up 6 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:47,600 for the podcast today and then lo and behold, we 7 00:00:47,719 --> 00:00:53,520 got news out of the White House that things regarding 8 00:00:53,679 --> 00:01:00,439 Iran have drastically, drastically changed. We were expecting. Well, last 9 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:07,359 night the President did authorize limited bombing in Iran. So 10 00:01:07,439 --> 00:01:13,640 the military strikes began again last night and earlier today. 11 00:01:13,719 --> 00:01:16,879 The President said, yep, we're going to go back and 12 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:20,319 bomb them again, even worse than ever. We're going to 13 00:01:20,439 --> 00:01:24,200 bomb the bleep out of them. So he was talking 14 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:28,439 tough right up until about one thirty this afternoon, and 15 00:01:28,599 --> 00:01:32,959 all of a sudden, out of nowhere, the President put 16 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:36,400 out a true social that read as follows. He writes, 17 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:40,359 based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic 18 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,480 of Iran have been brought to the highest level of 19 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:48,439 Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the 20 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:54,359 United States of America, canceled the scheduled strikes and bombings 21 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:58,799 against Iran. This evening. Discussions and final points have been 22 00:01:59,319 --> 00:02:04,200 in both concept and great detail approved by all parties involved, 23 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:15,240 including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE Guitar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, 24 00:02:15,319 --> 00:02:19,080 and others. The naval blockade will remain in full force 25 00:02:19,199 --> 00:02:24,599 an effect until this transaction is finalized. Time and place 26 00:02:24,719 --> 00:02:31,240 of the signing to be announced shortly. I told you whiplash, 27 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,560 he was talking earlier today. Let me let me let 28 00:02:34,599 --> 00:02:37,680 me play this for you. This was from mid morning. 29 00:02:38,719 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, there will be more bombing tonight. It'll be a bigger, bigger, 30 00:02:44,319 --> 00:02:46,719 more powerful. Don't forget. We've knocked out all of their 31 00:02:46,719 --> 00:02:49,439 anti aircraft. They don't have any anti nothing. I mean 32 00:02:49,439 --> 00:02:51,919 they may get lucky with the shoulder weapon or something, 33 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,840 but for the most part, you know, they have no 34 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:56,199 they have no defense. 35 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,479 Speaker 1: What are the representatives saying, your phone call the excuse 36 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:04,599 me have finished, but the papers the media refuses to 37 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:05,080 write it. 38 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 2: They have finished. We can walk in there tomorrow. We 39 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,319 could take soldiers. I don't want to have foods on 40 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:14,000 the ground, but if I wanted to, we could put 41 00:03:14,039 --> 00:03:17,919 a small group of soldiers and take over the whole place. 42 00:03:18,199 --> 00:03:19,080 They have finished. 43 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 1: That was mid morning. We're gonna bomb them, and bombing 44 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:27,960 even more, and there was some other profane language that 45 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:32,280 we won't we'll skip over, but more bombing tonight. They're finished. 46 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:36,039 In the media, blame the media. They're not writing about this. 47 00:03:36,639 --> 00:03:38,639 Let me just put it this way. It was more 48 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:42,159 than a surprise. Everybody's jaw dropped when we got the 49 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:47,680 true social about the fact that he's canceled the scheduled 50 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:51,240 strikes and bombings against Iran this evening, that all the 51 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:55,520 final points have been in details have been agreed to 52 00:03:56,199 --> 00:03:59,800 by all parties, and that the time and place of 53 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:07,400 the signing to be announced shortly. So, now, what do 54 00:04:07,479 --> 00:04:12,159 you think. I don't know if you're four the using 55 00:04:12,199 --> 00:04:14,719 the military. I've said yesterday, I've said it for many, 56 00:04:14,879 --> 00:04:21,360 many days. The fact that it takes diplomatic pressure, it 57 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:26,439 takes economic pressure, and it takes military pressure. And the 58 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:31,639 President for some reason, keeps broadcasting what we're going to do. 59 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:37,079 I wasn't ever in any high level of the United 60 00:04:37,079 --> 00:04:40,560 States Army, but I do. You never tell the enemy 61 00:04:40,639 --> 00:04:44,279 what you're going to do. And yet every day he 62 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:45,879 would come out and say this is what we're going 63 00:04:45,959 --> 00:04:47,839 to do, or this is what we're not going to do. 64 00:04:49,319 --> 00:04:53,879 So I am baffled by this. Let me start with 65 00:04:56,480 --> 00:05:04,439 leon Panetta. Leon Panetta was the Defense Secretary, he was 66 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,920 a chief of staff in the White House. He was 67 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:12,879 the head of the intelligence of our country. He's been 68 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:19,160 around Washington for a long time and he knows where 69 00:05:19,199 --> 00:05:21,680 all the where the ropes are. Here's Panana. 70 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 3: Well, you know, this has been the most screwed upset 71 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:30,959 of negotiations I've ever seen when it comes to trying 72 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:34,920 to end a war. These negotiations have been going on 73 00:05:35,079 --> 00:05:40,839 in the dark. We've been going through intermediaries with Pakistan 74 00:05:40,959 --> 00:05:47,600 and Katar and others, and they've exchanged one sheet documents 75 00:05:47,639 --> 00:05:51,120 to try to summarize some kind of framework. But there 76 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:55,959 really is no hard line negotiations going on between the parties. 77 00:05:56,959 --> 00:06:01,199 They're kind of, you know, sending signal one way or another, 78 00:06:02,079 --> 00:06:06,519 but you're not looking at each other in the eye, 79 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:11,560 and so you're not really negotiating what you're hoping for. 80 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:14,399 And I think this is the problem. I think what 81 00:06:14,399 --> 00:06:17,800 you're hoping for is that the other side is willing 82 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:22,360 to blink and compromise, And I think that's what Iran's 83 00:06:22,399 --> 00:06:25,360 hoping from the United States, and I think that's what 84 00:06:25,399 --> 00:06:29,319 the United States is hoping from Iran, and that's why, frankly, 85 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:35,360 these negotiations have gone nowhere. I'd be very surprised if 86 00:06:35,399 --> 00:06:38,639 what the President says today in fact happens. 87 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:41,399 Speaker 1: He's not alone. I'd be very surprised as well. Let 88 00:06:41,439 --> 00:06:43,759 me go back to this cruse social where he goes 89 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:47,040 through this whole thing. Back down near the bottom of it, 90 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:49,600 it says the naval blockade will remain in full force 91 00:06:49,639 --> 00:06:55,680 and effect until this transaction is finalized. He views this 92 00:06:55,920 --> 00:07:00,759 as a transaction, a real estate deal. So was in 93 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:04,839 one of his interviews this morning, this is before he 94 00:07:04,959 --> 00:07:07,680 changed his mind. He was talking about the fact that 95 00:07:08,759 --> 00:07:12,040 he said the American people, Yeah, let me pull up 96 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:13,959 the quote so I get it right. He said, the 97 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:19,160 American people don't have the stomach for an invasion of Iran. 98 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:21,519 He was talking about he had an idea about going 99 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:24,560 into carg Island and taking that hold on because we 100 00:07:24,639 --> 00:07:27,279 got some oil, at which you say, that's ridiculous, it'd 101 00:07:27,319 --> 00:07:30,560 be make no sense whatsoever. But that's what he was 102 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:34,800 talking about. And I think what he was doing was projecting, 103 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:41,199 projecting his own real thoughts that he doesn't have the 104 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:44,959 stomach for it. It appears that way that he doesn't. 105 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:47,360 Now I'm sure some of you don't either, but there's 106 00:07:47,399 --> 00:07:49,279 a lot of people that do. Would say, let's just 107 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:53,399 go and take down the regime, let's finish the job. 108 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:57,160 But he doesn't seem to have the stomach for it. 109 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:01,600 David Sanger talked about this big switch ru in the 110 00:08:01,639 --> 00:08:06,759 fact that the president, for one reason or another, he 111 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:13,279 is fixated on how long it took in Vietnam, and 112 00:08:13,319 --> 00:08:17,800 how long it took in Afghanistan, and how wonderful everything 113 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:19,160 in Venezuela went. 114 00:08:19,759 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 4: The presidents compared the Iran conflict to Venezuela consistently since 115 00:08:24,959 --> 00:08:28,639 it started in late February, and it's an analogy that 116 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:31,959 I think we've learned time and again simply doesn't apply. 117 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:34,960 Ven azuel as a small country of a few million people, 118 00:08:36,399 --> 00:08:43,159 fairly contained in size. Oil resources are in a fairly 119 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:47,000 contained area that we know well. Iran's a country of 120 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:51,679 ninety three million people, a vast country, and the idea 121 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:54,840 that the US could go in and control that infrastructure 122 00:08:55,399 --> 00:08:58,799 without having people on the ground, it's hard to imagine 123 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:06,720 as for Cargo Island, telegraphing this seems strange. Imagine if 124 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:10,519 CNN or at the New York Times had written They'll 125 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:13,600 take Carg Island in the next next number of hours, 126 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:19,879 probably some government would charge us with violating American national security. 127 00:09:20,159 --> 00:09:23,639 So there is some question about how seriously to take this, 128 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:27,480 in part because while the United States could grab Carg Island, 129 00:09:27,919 --> 00:09:31,039 holding it would be very difficult, and the Iranians could 130 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:34,279 easily cut off the oil supply that is going to 131 00:09:34,399 --> 00:09:35,000 Carg Island. 132 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:36,279 Speaker 5: Right now. 133 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:40,200 Speaker 4: The President's and original classifier, which means he can declassify 134 00:09:40,279 --> 00:09:45,320 and say anything he wants. But certainly, if he's serious 135 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:47,559 about taking Carg Island, it seems like he may have 136 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:53,000 made life more difficult and perhaps jeopardized the operation. If 137 00:09:53,039 --> 00:09:55,919 he isn't serious about it, well then he will have 138 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:59,600 made a claim that the Iranians would conclude was not 139 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:03,320 in in fact viable. And you know, the whole thing 140 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:08,559 is is underscored by this concept that if you threaten 141 00:10:08,639 --> 00:10:11,639 the Iranians, you will get an agreement more quickly, or 142 00:10:11,639 --> 00:10:14,200 if you bomb them, you will And he tried that 143 00:10:14,279 --> 00:10:17,679 experiment for thirty eight days and it did not actually 144 00:10:17,759 --> 00:10:22,240 result in making much progress in the negotiations. We reported 145 00:10:22,279 --> 00:10:26,519 the other day the details of where those negotiations now stand, 146 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,519 and while certainly they have not closed up everything, it's 147 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:31,480 not as if they've made no progress at all. 148 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: So the talk about carg Island and we all have 149 00:10:35,519 --> 00:10:39,399 learned by now, and that's the terminal area where all 150 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,879 of the oil from Iran gets unloaded onto ship or 151 00:10:42,919 --> 00:10:49,679 loaded on ships. Bob McNally is an oil expert, highly 152 00:10:49,759 --> 00:10:54,080 regarded oil expert. Rapidan is his company, and he was 153 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,120 asked about that situation. 154 00:10:56,399 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 6: Now it has there being more public about it now. 155 00:10:59,279 --> 00:11:02,159 They had initially wanted to keep it quiet to avoid 156 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:07,639 attracting Iranian fire. But over recent weeks in June, we've 157 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:10,879 seen this. The ship trackers have seen this. The US 158 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:16,519 is shepherding out sometimes over twenty ships a day through 159 00:11:16,639 --> 00:11:21,799 an Omani channel. They're hugging the Omani coast oil. And 160 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:26,159 they're prioritizing very large crew carriers we call them VLCC, 161 00:11:26,399 --> 00:11:29,399 so the big boats with lots of oil, and that 162 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,720 is increasing the trickle into a small stream of oil 163 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:34,360 coming out of Horrmus and it's good news. 164 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:34,720 Speaker 1: I think. 165 00:11:34,759 --> 00:11:36,679 Speaker 6: Now we're seeing more press supporting of it. They want 166 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:39,519 the world to know it and it's happening. It's a 167 00:11:39,519 --> 00:11:39,919 good thing. 168 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one of the comments of President made 169 00:11:42,519 --> 00:11:44,600 earlier about carg Island. 170 00:11:45,399 --> 00:11:48,279 Speaker 2: Look, my preference has always been take carg Island, I said. 171 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,159 My preference would be that I don't know that America 172 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:54,759 has the stomach for it. To be honest with eat Well. 173 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:56,960 Speaker 6: I think if we seized carg Island, we would have 174 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,720 a general escalation in violence Iran. We go back to 175 00:11:59,759 --> 00:12:04,840 hit critical infrastructure in neighboring countries, attacking ships and hormus, 176 00:12:04,879 --> 00:12:06,600 and we would do the same against it. So we 177 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:08,600 just have a big price increase. I don't know of 178 00:12:08,639 --> 00:12:11,960 a military expert who believes we need to seize carg Island. 179 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:15,559 We are already blocking the oil that comes from carg Island, 180 00:12:15,639 --> 00:12:19,519 so Iran's getting no benefit from that, and seizing it, 181 00:12:19,759 --> 00:12:22,039 I'm not sure with the benefit. There are smaller islands 182 00:12:22,279 --> 00:12:24,720 that we would want to seize if we want to 183 00:12:24,759 --> 00:12:28,320 prevent Iran from threatening those ships. They have assets, radars 184 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,519 and so forth. But carg Island, I'm not sure what 185 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:32,480 the benefit is there. 186 00:12:32,639 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 1: So Bob mcdally is the expert, and he says there's 187 00:12:36,519 --> 00:12:38,840 not a military expert that he ever talked to who 188 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,759 sees the benefit of taking carg Island. But there is 189 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:46,039 another serious problem. We talked about it yesterday. That's the 190 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:52,279 world's oil inventory, including our own strategic petroleum reserve. They're 191 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:56,399 running low, and if this continues on for much longer, 192 00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:59,360 we're going to have a big price spike. 193 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 7: Out barrels for thirty five years. 194 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:04,159 Speaker 6: I've never seen a time in my career where just 195 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:06,759 about every oil analyst I know, whether it's the oil 196 00:13:06,799 --> 00:13:11,120 companies you mentioned Exon Chevron, every analyst I know. My team, 197 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:15,120 we predict and forecast. If this continues this summer, we 198 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:19,559 will see very low inventories, which will require very high 199 00:13:19,639 --> 00:13:22,120 oil prices. It is a train wreck heading our way 200 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:24,519 if we can't get Hormuz open soon. 201 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:27,639 Speaker 1: So when you talk about very soon, how much time 202 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:30,120 do we have to get that straight open before the 203 00:13:30,159 --> 00:13:31,120 price is spike up. 204 00:13:33,159 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 6: That needs to happen right about now. Our base case 205 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:38,919 is we start the flows in July. There'll be a 206 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:41,440 ramp up of several months. I think if the market 207 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:43,360 sees that coming, we still may have a bump in 208 00:13:43,399 --> 00:13:46,360 prices because we're going to dig into those inventories in 209 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:48,440 July and August. But I think you'd see a peak 210 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:51,159 worst case if we go into the fall and Hormuz 211 00:13:51,279 --> 00:13:54,360 is basically shut or down to about ten percent or so, 212 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,240 then I think we're going to see much much higher prices. 213 00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:59,120 So the good news needs to come here very soon, 214 00:13:59,200 --> 00:13:59,799 coming weeks. 215 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:03,399 Speaker 1: There's no question the President is feeling pressure, and the 216 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,200 pressure is is to not let those prices spike. He 217 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:10,799 doesn't want anything like that to happen. David Drucker, longtime 218 00:14:11,159 --> 00:14:16,480 Washington observer, reacts to this whole idea that all of 219 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:18,919 a sudden, the President has done a one to eighty 220 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:23,080 and canceled everything regarding bombings. And guess what, there's an 221 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:26,559 agreement that everybody has signed on to. Well they haven't 222 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:28,360 signed on yet, but they've agreed to. 223 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 3: Yeah. 224 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:31,879 Speaker 8: Well, you really can't handle this kind of messaging because 225 00:14:31,879 --> 00:14:35,360 it's so unpredictable. But look, it's kind of like groundhog Day, right, 226 00:14:35,399 --> 00:14:37,480 I mean, how many times we've been here before the 227 00:14:37,519 --> 00:14:41,279 President either strikes or on order strikes or threatened strikes. 228 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:43,720 Then he pulls back and says we're on the cusp 229 00:14:43,759 --> 00:14:47,600 of a deal. At certain points he says we actually 230 00:14:47,639 --> 00:14:50,600 have a deal. Then we find out we either don't 231 00:14:50,639 --> 00:14:52,159 have a deal or we don't have a deal that's 232 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:56,200 acceptable to Republicans on Capitol Hill, even though it may 233 00:14:56,240 --> 00:15:00,320 be acceptable to President Trump. And so I think gonna 234 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:02,679 have to wait and see here what we're actually dealing with. 235 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:08,960 And I think given the pattern, it's simply impossible to know. Look, 236 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:13,279 the President had a real opportunity, at least with Republicans 237 00:15:13,279 --> 00:15:16,960 writ large, to really gather a lot of support for 238 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:20,000 the war in Iran. It's something a lot of Republicans 239 00:15:20,039 --> 00:15:23,639 looked favorably on. Even though elements of the President's base 240 00:15:24,159 --> 00:15:27,919 were attracted to his no new warst promise, many other 241 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,039 Republican voters have bought Iran a menace, and there was 242 00:15:31,039 --> 00:15:34,120 a really good case to make for US military action. 243 00:15:34,519 --> 00:15:38,799 The President never made that case. He never involved anyone 244 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:42,879 on Capitol Hill. Not Democrats obviously, but not Republicans either, 245 00:15:43,399 --> 00:15:46,720 Nor did he involve our allies. And that's why, ultimately 246 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:50,200 he's been alone on an island here trying to find 247 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:54,279 a way to extricate himself in some sense, to be 248 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,360 able to say what I've established now is better than 249 00:15:57,399 --> 00:16:01,320 what President Obama established so in a way that does 250 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:05,200 not cause further political erosion. And the one thing we 251 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:08,039 could do that we haven't is launch more of a 252 00:16:08,039 --> 00:16:12,480 full scale land invasion to take control of certain parts 253 00:16:12,519 --> 00:16:15,279 of Iran. That is the sort of thing that my 254 00:16:15,399 --> 00:16:20,000 sources have told me for months would cause a further 255 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:24,559 political problems with the Republican base and the Republican Party 256 00:16:24,919 --> 00:16:28,120 and leading into an election. It's simply knock something the 257 00:16:28,159 --> 00:16:29,360 president has been willing to do. 258 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:33,919 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's always stuck. I mean, people get mad about quagmire, 259 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:38,360 but this is really the definition of a quagmire. Justin Wolfers, 260 00:16:38,399 --> 00:16:42,759 he's an economist, professor of economics at the University of Michigan. 261 00:16:43,279 --> 00:16:46,919 He's been keeping track of how many times the president 262 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:48,919 keeps flipping back and forth. 263 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 9: David Drekker asked, how many times have we seen this 264 00:16:51,519 --> 00:16:53,559 why the president leans in says we've got to bum 265 00:16:53,559 --> 00:16:56,080 you tonight, and then pulls back. The answer is five 266 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,960 times so far, just over the past few weeks. In fact, 267 00:17:00,279 --> 00:17:03,399 I was looking, and so far during this war, the 268 00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:07,359 President has come up at a minimum thirty eight separate 269 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,519 times and told the American people that were on a 270 00:17:10,519 --> 00:17:12,880 cusp of a deal with a run. So today, happy 271 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:17,359 thirty ninth and given that track record, it makes it 272 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:19,240 doubly hard for any of us to know what to do. 273 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,319 It's clear that the president has been wrong thirty eight 274 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:24,559 times in a row, and the question is he's going 275 00:17:24,599 --> 00:17:26,440 to be right the thirty ninth time. So when you're 276 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:29,359 seeing stocks rise on this news, it's actually been the 277 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,279 most persistent pattern was seen through the war, which is 278 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:37,319 every time the president de escalates, American stocks rise, and 279 00:17:37,559 --> 00:17:41,039 notice they're even rising despite its a de escalation from 280 00:17:41,079 --> 00:17:44,640 a bloke who you know only sometimes tends to mean 281 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:45,839 what he actually says. 282 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 1: And the same happens today. The markets took off on 283 00:17:50,799 --> 00:17:53,519 the idea that me, oh, this is it. This is 284 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:56,200 now for the thirty nine time we've heard this, but 285 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:59,000 this time it just may be true. So let's go 286 00:17:59,039 --> 00:18:03,319 ahead and stock market rallies on that kind of news. 287 00:18:03,799 --> 00:18:07,480 So while we're recording this podcast, the President decides to 288 00:18:07,559 --> 00:18:13,319 have one of his Oval Office meetings with the pack 289 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:17,400 of reporters, and I thought it was important to pull 290 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:20,559 this out of his comments because they asked him specifically 291 00:18:20,599 --> 00:18:24,480 about are you sure that this deal is gonna gonna stick? 292 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,640 Speaker 10: On iran Ah mister President on Iran, how confident are 293 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,839 you that there will be a signing this weekend because 294 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,160 you have come close to sealing a deal that at 295 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,039 the last minute it has fallen out. 296 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:40,160 Speaker 5: And it'll be it'll be soon, maybe this weekend. 297 00:18:40,519 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 10: And has the Supreme Leader approved this deal, sir. 298 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 5: I understand the issues. 299 00:18:44,559 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 10: Yes, And when the and when the steal is signed, 300 00:18:48,599 --> 00:18:51,400 is the United States going to immediately lift the blockade? 301 00:18:51,519 --> 00:18:55,160 Speaker 11: Yes, that's true, that's part of the deal. And just 302 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:58,079 want to have oil prices dropping like a rock. 303 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:02,039 Speaker 10: And so have you actually secured an agreement on the 304 00:19:02,079 --> 00:19:05,680 discussions about the nuclear material and the nuclear negotiation? 305 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,839 Speaker 11: Yeah, actually on that and nobody's getting close to it 306 00:19:08,839 --> 00:19:10,359 because it's buried under a mountain. 307 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 5: Basically, this would be two bombers and will not have 308 00:19:16,319 --> 00:19:17,240 a nuclear weapon. 309 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:19,559 Speaker 11: They've agreed to that there will be no which is 310 00:19:19,559 --> 00:19:21,720 the whole reason, which is a big part of the 311 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:25,319 reason agreements. They will not only not have they will 312 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:29,119 not purchase develop in any way any shape, in any way, 313 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:30,680 shape or form a nuclear weapon. 314 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:32,599 Speaker 5: They will not have a nuclear weapons. 315 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,079 Speaker 1: Right, So that was the guts of the Oval Office 316 00:19:37,079 --> 00:19:40,440 meeting with the media, and they pinned them down and 317 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:44,039 said are you sure. He goes absolutely, Well, when are 318 00:19:44,079 --> 00:19:48,799 you going to sign it? Maybe this weekend? Conceptual agreement 319 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,880 on nuclear arms, but he says they definitely won't have them. 320 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:56,480 But that's the latest, And it was a it was 321 00:19:56,519 --> 00:19:59,880 a big surprise mid afternoon when we went from the 322 00:20:00,079 --> 00:20:02,240 going to bomb a more tonight, We're going to bomb 323 00:20:02,279 --> 00:20:05,240 the bleep out of them, to oh, we have an 324 00:20:05,279 --> 00:20:09,519 agreement and everybody is ready to sign it. So that 325 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:13,240 wasn't the only announcement from the President today. We also 326 00:20:13,839 --> 00:20:17,839 found out that the President has decided to nominate for 327 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:23,759 the office of Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton, who 328 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:27,559 is the current US Attorney at the Southern Distinct of 329 00:20:27,599 --> 00:20:31,640 New York. That is by far the most prestigious US 330 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:36,839 Attorney's office in the country. They handle a lot of terrorism, 331 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:40,720 they handle a lot of international counter terrorism issues and 332 00:20:40,759 --> 00:20:45,119 everything else. But Jay Clayton doesn't really have a direct 333 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:50,960 background in national intelligence. Before before heading up the US 334 00:20:51,039 --> 00:20:55,039 Attorney's office in New York, he was the Securities and 335 00:20:55,200 --> 00:21:01,119 Exchange Commission Chairman in Trump one point zero. So why 336 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:05,680 this came about today, Well, there's another issue that is 337 00:21:05,759 --> 00:21:09,920 expiring tonight, and that is the FISA Act, and the 338 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:14,640 FISA is the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, and this is 339 00:21:14,759 --> 00:21:19,720 expiring at midnight tonight, and it's important to keep this. 340 00:21:19,759 --> 00:21:23,279 It's specifically what they call seven h two. It allows 341 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:30,200 the US to do electronic surveillance on foreign targets outside 342 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,920 of the United States. It is one of our nation's 343 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:38,920 most vital intelligence gathering tools. And the Republicans in the 344 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:42,799 Senate said, we're not going to approve this, and the 345 00:21:42,839 --> 00:21:46,839 Democrats certainly are not going to because of the fact 346 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,319 that you want to put Bill Poulty in as the 347 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:54,960 head of the Director of National Intelligence, and Poulty is 348 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:58,400 a political hatchet man, and we're not going to have that. 349 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:02,519 This is a very important position. A lot of people 350 00:22:02,599 --> 00:22:06,799 suspicious that the President picked Bill Poulty because he wanted 351 00:22:06,839 --> 00:22:11,000 Bill Poulty to go dig through the intelligence records to 352 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:14,680 find something that would say that the twenty twenty election 353 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:19,519 was rigged. So does this mean that Poulty's out. Well, 354 00:22:19,559 --> 00:22:24,480 Poulty apparently called Tulsey Gabbert today and said, I know 355 00:22:24,559 --> 00:22:26,720 you said you stick around till the end of the month, 356 00:22:27,079 --> 00:22:30,440 but let's put it this way, move your stuff out today, 357 00:22:31,039 --> 00:22:34,720 get out of the office today, and that's kind of 358 00:22:34,759 --> 00:22:38,000 the reputation Bill Polti has. He's a hardball guy. So 359 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,759 all of a sudden, the President comes out and says, oh, 360 00:22:42,279 --> 00:22:45,759 I'm I'm nominating Jay Clayton to be the head of 361 00:22:45,839 --> 00:22:50,200 the Director of National Intelligence. So where this leaves Bill Pulty. 362 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:54,519 I don't know at this moment, But will this now 363 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,359 all of a sudden, will the Congress rush around this 364 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:01,599 afternoon and try and pass the Fice Act? I doubt it. 365 00:23:01,599 --> 00:23:04,240 It's a it's very hot on the East Coast today, 366 00:23:04,839 --> 00:23:07,079 and they don't work Fridays, and there's a lot of 367 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:10,240 members of the Senate and the House that have already 368 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,920 they're over at the airport kitchen flights home. So Ellie Honig, 369 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:18,240 who was one of the members of the Southern District 370 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:22,359 of New York Prosecutor's office, weighed in on just exactly 371 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:24,000 who Jay Clayton is. 372 00:23:24,799 --> 00:23:24,920 Speaker 3: Well. 373 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,839 Speaker 12: J Clayton certainly has more national security expertise than Bill Poulty, 374 00:23:29,319 --> 00:23:31,839 but still not a lot in the grand scheme of things. 375 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:31,960 Speaker 2: Now. 376 00:23:32,039 --> 00:23:34,279 Speaker 12: Jake Clayton, as you said, is the US attorney right 377 00:23:34,279 --> 00:23:37,079 now for the Southern District of New York my former office. 378 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,319 But Before that, the thirty years of his legal career 379 00:23:40,319 --> 00:23:43,640 were primarily spent either as an associate or a partner 380 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,839 at a big Manhattan law firm where he was doing 381 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,279 primarily corporate deals and that type of thing. And in 382 00:23:49,319 --> 00:23:52,240 twenty seventeen he became the chair of the SEC the 383 00:23:52,279 --> 00:23:55,839 Securities and Exchange Commission, where he was involved with regulating 384 00:23:56,079 --> 00:24:00,440 the markets and financial transactions. So his only real experience 385 00:24:00,519 --> 00:24:03,680 in the national security area comes over the last year 386 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:05,759 when he was a US attorney at the Southern District 387 00:24:05,839 --> 00:24:08,279 of New York. Now that said, if you're going to 388 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:12,200 get experience in terrorism cases and national security cases, the 389 00:24:12,319 --> 00:24:15,799 SDNY is probably the single best US Attorney's office in 390 00:24:15,839 --> 00:24:19,000 the country to do that, because the SDNY specializes in 391 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:24,720 those areas, has long brought cases involving terrorist attacks, international 392 00:24:25,039 --> 00:24:29,079 and domestic terrorist organizations, and indeed J. Clayin has overseen 393 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,359 some investigations and prosecutions of that nature during his time 394 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:33,920 as US attorney over the past year. 395 00:24:34,759 --> 00:24:36,559 Speaker 1: One of the things that came out from the President 396 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:41,200 after he nominated Bill Poulty to be the temporary Director 397 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,440 of National Intelligence was he he was very open about it. 398 00:24:44,519 --> 00:24:47,039 He said he wanted Poulty to go in and start 399 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:51,599 firing a lot of people in the national intelligence agencies, 400 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:57,480 and that is what Poulty is good at, is chopping heads. 401 00:24:58,039 --> 00:25:01,559 So Ellie was asked about, Well, I think Jay Clayton's 402 00:25:01,559 --> 00:25:03,160 going to go in and fire a bunch of people 403 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:04,880 in intelligence branches. 404 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,599 Speaker 12: Certainly, with regard to firings, he will have the power 405 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,279 to fire whoever he wants or whoever the President tells 406 00:25:10,319 --> 00:25:13,319 him to. Jake Clayton, though, I think, is different than 407 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:16,680 Bill Poulty when it comes to his level of political 408 00:25:16,799 --> 00:25:20,400 loyalty to Donald Trump. Bill Pulty was a twenty twenty 409 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:24,400 election denier. Bill Poulty wasn't over the top pro Trump 410 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:25,759 political partisan. 411 00:25:25,839 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 5: Jay Clayton certainly is a Trump person. 412 00:25:28,799 --> 00:25:30,839 Speaker 12: He was nominated both to his SEC job and now 413 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,319 to the US Attorney job by Donald Trump. So he 414 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,680 does have that sort of typical amount of allegiance to 415 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:41,079 Donald Trump. But he does not appear to be a 416 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,519 frothing partisan. He does not appear to be somebody who 417 00:25:44,599 --> 00:25:47,839 has espoused false conspiracy theory. So I think there's a 418 00:25:47,839 --> 00:25:50,799 difference in kind here between j Clayton and Bill Pulty. 419 00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 1: So again, trying to figure out Jake Clayton's role and 420 00:25:56,279 --> 00:25:59,319 how his background would fit over at the Director of 421 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:03,160 National Intel Diligence. Larry Pfeiffer was the chief of staff 422 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:07,359 to a former Director of National Intelligence, so he's got 423 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,000 years inside the d and i's office, and this is 424 00:26:11,039 --> 00:26:11,599 his reaction. 425 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:13,920 Speaker 7: For those of us who are veterans of the intel community, 426 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,200 the name really meant almost nothing to me. I had 427 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:17,920 to scramble a little bit to look him up and 428 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:21,160 see get reminded about the posts he's held and the 429 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:26,759 career he's had. My initial thoughts series, I don't know 430 00:26:26,799 --> 00:26:29,559 if this scratches the itch of concern on the part 431 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:34,319 of those who criticize the faulty nomination. Clayton comes to 432 00:26:34,319 --> 00:26:37,920 the job as well without extensive national security experience, which 433 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:42,799 is what the law requires. In addition, it appears through 434 00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:47,799 his career in the financial world he's got some pretty 435 00:26:47,799 --> 00:26:50,680 interesting ties in the past to Chinese firms that are 436 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:55,359 of some concern to the US. To Russian firms as well. 437 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,599 I think he helped a Swedish firm acquire some Russian 438 00:26:58,599 --> 00:27:01,599 firms at one point, and then just the other day 439 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,759 he was on the television jumping into the fray on 440 00:27:05,799 --> 00:27:11,880 election denialism and promoting unfounded conspiracies about election fraud and 441 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:16,160 lack of integrity in California, for example. So I imagine there'll 442 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,680 be some who will applaud him as a better choice 443 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,279 than Pulty, but I think the jury's still out on 444 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,200 those who strongly opposed Pulty how they'll feel. 445 00:27:27,799 --> 00:27:31,599 Speaker 1: Well, I saw that interview on CNBC Jay Clayton. He 446 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:35,160 did not try to push conspiracy theories. He said with 447 00:27:35,279 --> 00:27:39,319 the delays that everybody was asking about that California takes 448 00:27:39,319 --> 00:27:44,920 so long that it could lead to conspiracy theories. And 449 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,839 that's exactly what I said as well, is that when 450 00:27:47,839 --> 00:27:54,200 you have these open ended, not finished up election results 451 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,960 and they're just kind of hanging out there, you get 452 00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,519 all kinds of conspiracy theorists. And that's all Jay Clayton said. 453 00:28:00,519 --> 00:28:06,200 So he doesn't have an extensive intelligence background, So we'll 454 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,440 see where this goes with the Senate that has to 455 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:14,880 approve him. And then finally, as we're recording this podcast, 456 00:28:16,039 --> 00:28:19,960 we're running late today, but Senator John Kennedy was asked 457 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:24,559 about the flip from We're going to bomb the bleep 458 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:28,200 out of them tonight to guess what we have an agreement, 459 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,599 and Kennedy was asked, what do you make of that? 460 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:39,240 Speaker 13: I want to read it. I listened to the presidence interpretation. 461 00:28:40,319 --> 00:28:47,279 I appreciate that he's there. I'm not, but I trust. 462 00:28:47,599 --> 00:28:54,359 I trust the leadership political leadership in Iran like I 463 00:28:54,440 --> 00:29:00,000 trust a rush stop bathroom. They they're not rational people, 464 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:06,559 so like dealing with Charlie Mansion Mansion, they all think 465 00:29:06,599 --> 00:29:11,880 they're on a mission from God. They learned alive before 466 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:17,319 they learned to talk. Uh do I believe even if 467 00:29:17,359 --> 00:29:22,160 they put it in writing that they will never attempt 468 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:28,519 to develop a nuclear warhead? Note, So the balances and 469 00:29:28,599 --> 00:29:32,119 the checks in this document are going to matter. I 470 00:29:32,119 --> 00:29:36,680 also want to know how much money we're releasing to 471 00:29:36,759 --> 00:29:43,160 a Ron the blockade. I know this from both classified 472 00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:48,799 and unclassified information. That blockade is hurting them. It's hurting 473 00:29:48,839 --> 00:29:52,720 the the the military, and the elite, but it's also 474 00:29:52,799 --> 00:29:57,440 hurting the people. And they're desperate for cash. And I 475 00:29:57,559 --> 00:30:00,599 want to if all we get in reach turn for 476 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:04,720 if I would get in return for giving them some 477 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:08,960 of the money is their promises. I'm not saying that's 478 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,759 the case, but that's going to get my attention. Look, 479 00:30:12,799 --> 00:30:16,559 I hope the President's right, He's worked hard on this. 480 00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:22,599 It sounds like good news, But how can I put this? 481 00:30:23,319 --> 00:30:25,880 I played poker every now and then with my friends, 482 00:30:27,559 --> 00:30:29,640 but they are all my friends, but I cut the 483 00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,759 cards every single mile. I want to read this document. 484 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:37,880 Speaker 1: There's a reaction from a little boy, John Kennedy from Louisiana. 485 00:30:38,799 --> 00:30:43,720 So Wall Street today also did a lot of flipping, 486 00:30:44,039 --> 00:30:46,920 if you will. This actually started off positive this morning, 487 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:48,799 which was nice to see it as a rebound, if 488 00:30:48,799 --> 00:30:53,440 you will, from yesterday's nine hundred then some point drop 489 00:30:53,799 --> 00:30:57,519 nine hundred and fifty three points down yesterday, So today 490 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,720 it was up, not a lot, but it was up. 491 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,640 And then when the President came out and said that 492 00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,599 an agreement has been reached with Iran and that the 493 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,920 bombing had been canceled, the market took off and the 494 00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:15,400 Dow finished up nine hundred and twenty nine. That's just 495 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:19,200 the reverse of yesterday at fifty thousand and eight forty five. 496 00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,079 The SMP went up one hundred twenty seven, the Nasdaq 497 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:27,000 Big rally up six hundred and forty. Part of that 498 00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:32,000 is the tech stocks are all excited because tomorrow SpaceX 499 00:31:32,599 --> 00:31:36,680 goes public, and so a lot of interest in what's 500 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,440 going on in the tech world. Price of gold up 501 00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:43,240 one hundred two dollars to four thousand and two thirty five, 502 00:31:43,319 --> 00:31:48,079 and oil president said, dropped like a rocket. It went down. 503 00:31:48,319 --> 00:31:51,039 It wasn't like a rock. But we'll see more importantly 504 00:31:51,119 --> 00:31:56,200 what happens in the next twenty four hours or maybe 505 00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:58,319 over the weekend, to see what happens to oil. But 506 00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:03,000 down three dollars eighty closing it eighty six dollars and 507 00:32:03,119 --> 00:32:06,559 some change for a barrel of oil today. So that's 508 00:32:06,599 --> 00:32:10,319 it for today. I appreciate you coming by. We have 509 00:32:11,599 --> 00:32:14,960 a lot of changes during the day to day. We'll 510 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,160 see what tomorrow brings. I hope to see you then.