Speaker 1: One.
Speaker 2: Andy, you're la Welcome to the best sports betting show
on the planet. This is wager Talk Today. I am
your host, Andy Lang. It is Monday, and if you
want to get ahead of the markets this week, which
we all need to do, this is where it starts.
We're gonna break down the NFL preseason look aheads, we
gotta do the Steam Report, see where the lines are
moving on preseason. We're gonna look at MLB today and
we're even gonna look with Iowa State in Kansas State
and the Ireland game. These are games most betters are
not even thinking about yet, but that's what we do here.
We got to get ahead of the markets, so watch now,
get the edges before the public catches on. We're gonna
start with Jiohnny the Greek to get the Steam Report.
Crackman's gonna join us with an MLB prop Steamil is
gonna join us to talk Mariners and Phillies and the
Iowa State, Kansas State Ireland game. Don't forget to hit
that like button subscribe to the wager Talk YouTube channel.
The goals have been fantastic with hitting the subscribers, so
it's all thanks to you guys.
Speaker 3: Really appreciate all your work.
Speaker 2: All right, let's bring in Gianni and let's talk some
of these line moves. Here, Johnny, we gotta talk NFL preseason.
Good morning, how are you sir? Happy?
Speaker 4: Wonderful, wonderful With the pre I was worried after the
first week did not go well for us in preseason.
I was like, what I hooked up with the best
group that I had in a long time for exactly
what I need for this football season. And so I
was so excited and we had a terrible first week.
But then the next morning when I woke up, I
saw that the books did awful, and then seeing Dave
Mason talking about it how his sharp guys came in
on four signs all four loss, I was like, Okay,
so the information solid and we had beat the closing line.
Speaker 5: We just didn't get there with the w this week, though.
We flipped the script on them.
Speaker 4: Fourteen preseason bets cash ten of fourteen, two of them
yesterday and taking advantage a lot of the overreactions.
Speaker 5: I saw it with the very first.
Speaker 4: Night when Cincinnati Tennessee was like at a five and
a half six point favor six and a half point
favor they went down to two and a half. Through
that keynoe and boom, that group comes in and says
Max bet two and a half lay the two and
a half. Max bet it for us. I was like,
what are they doing, dude, They're going against the sharpest stuff.
Obviously it moved three to four points. Nope, they hit
that one. Then yesterday those totals, same thing. Those the
total in the night game had gone off three four points.
I'm like, dude, they're going opposite the steam. Nothing could
be further from the truth.
Speaker 3: Man.
Speaker 4: There's a lot of manipulation going on. So I'm really
excited about the preseason. Here's what I got for you tonight.
Speaker 5: Not much.
Speaker 4: It's a little bit early. So far, we've seen over
money on Monday Night Football. Not surprising. This line got
bet like every other Week two line got bet over
over over money. After the Week one games went final,
the money started coming in on the over. We talked
about it on Way to Talk today before the weekend
that only one matchup had any kind of under beets
from recreational better every other matchup in Week two they
were slamming that over and the same thing tonight with
Monday Night Football, that's why it's gotten as high as
forty three from what thirty nine. That's the adjustment. Now
the key is is there still value to go over
or now do we look at the under with Cincinnati.
They're now gone through that key number of three, so
got to pay attention there. I'm even seeing fours on
the screen, so that matters again. Got to see now
if willing to lay the points with Cincinnati, I wish
I would have got down at minus three. I kind
of liked them a little bit there, but we'll see.
I haven't touched the Monday Night football yet. Gonna stay selected.
That's been doing well for us in NFL and.
Speaker 5: Again terrible in MMA. I don't know how you did.
Tamaiah got there for me.
Speaker 4: I should have just bet like I felt with those
matchups Chamaia was. I felt so confident about the chama
I have bet, But as we went on, more and
more and more and more and just did not turn
out well for me. Hopefully you had a good UFC
three nine team.
Speaker 2: I went two and two, except I lost the two
big plays and won the two small plays.
Speaker 3: And this is.
Speaker 2: Interesting because you would say I made a great bet
because the play we lost in PFL was freaking' Gadzi.
Speaker 3: Who opened at minus seven hundred.
Speaker 2: We quickly threw him into parlay. He closed minus two thousand. Yeah,
so we had to take the line moved so aggressively.
We had to take the play down.
Speaker 3: And then he loses a decision, and I say, that's
a bad bet. Because we lost it. You would say, dude,
you beat the line. You couldn't have beat the line
by much more.
Speaker 5: So Yeah, like me, I had listen and I know
all again.
Speaker 4: We could quarter Monday morning quarterback a billion different ways.
And that's where the closing line value argument comes in
the play because we could argue about was it a
good bet if it didn't cash or this or that.
But I felt good with the market when I laid
minus one fifty and then I saw it get the
minus two hundred. I was like, beautiful, that's exactly what
a big BET's supposed to do. One in and elbow
and Pico gets knocked out and rushed to the hospital.
Nothing you could do there and Murphy. I totally understood
the argument on the Murphy side completely. I mean again,
I made a lot of money bet Murphy. He's been
so undervalued I just thought it was the worst situation
for impossible short notice. Those fighters only win one out
of three times. He flew from England only two days
or so before the fight, had to get acclimated with Chicago.
Like there was a lot of trends against the Murphy side,
but he had the UFC experience, So I understood that argument. Yeah,
I just thought Pico was undervalued. The line reflected that.
But again, man, you can't control what's gonna happen when
they go out there.
Speaker 5: All you can do is try to place bets.
Speaker 2: Well, let's take a look at NFL preseason Week three.
I'm looking at the lines. There's a couple of lines.
Speaker 3: That have moved just a little bit. I would say probably.
Speaker 2: The most notable one is that Dallas line, hoping that
minus one. That thing's already up to minus four. I
even see a minus four and a half at fan.
Got a little movements here on some of the totals,
but I would say nothing as aggressive this week as
what we saw on Monday of last week. So one
of your thoughts, sorry.
Speaker 4: Wanted to interrupt you about this, just came up on
my screen now on the instant messaging that I'm with
that group.
Speaker 5: They just bet Tennessee.
Speaker 4: They just bet Tennessee at plus one, so that'll flip.
Tennessee will go favored, he'll be favored.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 4: And Cleveland went through that key number against the Rams.
They're getting bet this morning too.
Speaker 5: And then the over in.
Speaker 4: Houston Detroit over Houston, Detroit, Cleveland and Tennessee Tennessee for
surean like you said, Dallas, Dallas definitely got hit. They guy,
I didn't see that in any of the accounts, but
I see the line movement now. They went right two three. Wow,
that went right to three as soon as it opened
one and a half. They must have took a big
limit that got bet to.
Speaker 5: Three right away.
Speaker 4: And then that it's up to four, so that that
minus three wasn't enough to stop them.
Speaker 5: They laid the three. Wow.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I mean. That was the one, the
one that really jumped out. They're not fans of the
Falcons in preseason. So nothing in WNBA. So we turn
our attention to MLB. Interested in some of your thoughts today, Yes.
Speaker 4: And baseball, and so I don't forget remind the US
open when we're done this, because very slow so far
in baseball, just three signs. Three signs that I saw
in the accounts, it was Detroit nine ten, Detroit at
minus one forty nine to twenty one, Cincinnati, Cincinnati at
minus one oh five and nine twenty five, Milwaukee at
plus one oh five. So Milwaukee plus one or five
Cincinnati minus one oh five in Detroit minus one forty bill.
I agree with you with Dallas. I like under seven
and a half wins for Dallas. I like Dallas to
not make the playoffs as well. And here's what sticks
out most about the Dallas Cowboys. When you look at
what Dave Mason was saying, Dallas to make the playoffs
and Dallas over are some of the most one sided
ticket bets. So when he looks at tickey count Dallas
to make the playoffs at plus money Dallas to go
over at plus money, I think it was as well,
is one of the highest one sided ticket bets. Dallas
to make the playoffs is also high liability for them.
But if you look at the money bet, it's Dallas
to not make the playoffs. So that's the perfect example
of how the ticket count may be nine to one
in favor of team A, but if a betting syent
thing it comes in and blast Team b Rest to short.
Speaker 5: The risk will be different for the books.
Speaker 4: And that's exactly what you're looking at with Dallas, where
all the recreational betters are betting Dallas playoffs, Dallas over,
and then you have the wise guy saying Dallas no playoffs,
will lay minus two hundred for that. So it'll be
interesting to see how the me being a Cowboys fan
back in the day, it'll be interesting to see.
Speaker 5: How Dallas does.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 4: I like the Eagles repeat now once repeated, I think
in like the last twenty years, since twenty two thousand
and four in the NFC. So very hard to do,
but I think if anybody could do it, Philly, even
if they regress, they just won so many games last year,
they could win two three less. And I just think
they're still gonna win that division because Washington, I think
they're gonna take a step back a little bit.
Speaker 2: Yeah, listen, I was going to talk about it here
a little bit later, but yeah, we got US Open.
Speaker 3: It's a huge tennis week.
Speaker 2: I mean, we're gonna be playing qualifiers this week, so
any plays that we start to have for US Open,
they'll immediately be up on wager talk, and then you know,
like always in the majors, Johnny, we go hard the
first couple days, in the first couple of rounds, and
then closer we get to championship, we the volume just
kind of tails off, like once you get the best
players playing each other and they're tired, and there's injuries
that pop.
Speaker 3: Up because of a grueling schedule.
Speaker 2: So we always tell people there could be some real
good value in the qualifiers. Anything that we'll have up
will put up for sale. And then first few days
we may like twenty plays in the first few days
of US Open. That's just been the recipe to success
that these tennis majors. How do you attack these?
Speaker 5: Yeah, we already bet some qualifiers today.
Speaker 4: I gave out a four percent, two percent on the
money line, two percent plus two and a half games.
I'll give that to you guys right now. Polona her
Son Perlona her Son, p O. L O n A
last name h R.
Speaker 7: Cog.
Speaker 5: We took her plus one thirty.
Speaker 4: Five plus one thirty five on the money line, also
took her plus two and a half games. I'll give
you one more because I think that one's going off.
Speaker 6: This one.
Speaker 5: You still have an hour and a half Land Lana Land, Lana,
Tara Rudy, so it's t A r A r U
d Ee.
Speaker 4: We got her at plus one ten so she's good
down to even money, and we also took her plus
one and a half games minus one twenty. So there's
two US Open qualifiers for you subscribers over the next
thirty minutes. Right when I jump off of this, you
will probably see four or five qualifiers. We've done real
well with our tennis historically with these early on, so
you'll be getting those premiums as soon as I jump
off of here, because they just fired like seven, eight,
nine of them. Man, So yeah, let's go tennis.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and guys, our job here is to make money.
There's a lot of money to be made in some
of these sports that the books maybe are not paying
a ton of attention to. So whether you may have
bet on tennis qualifiers or NFL preseason's going to pay
out the same. And I'm going to guarantee you the
lines are going to be easier to beat in these
tennis qualifiers. So we had a question from Donna, and
he was asking about the betting splits that's from is
that from Dave Mason, that information gave about the the NFL.
Speaker 5: Yeah, the the NFL. They took them out.
Speaker 4: If you go to his Twitter, you'll see he put
like the top five for beent online, their top five exposure,
their top five ticket count, the top five money bet
and at lined up with what the the credit shop
that I have access to that I look at, same
exact thing they're getting. So that's always a good way
to confirm when you're seeing it happen off screen and
on screen. So same thing happened there.
Speaker 5: Good job. They'll keep crushing that. PGA brother.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I g I went too and ZHO and Live
and it was fun. I actually I went to the
live tour is at my house. I went on Friday.
Speaker 3: It was ugh.
Speaker 2: It was a blast, man. It's unlike any golf event
you ever. The DJ is just constantly playing music the
whole time, like even when they're hitting shots or just
music playing.
Speaker 3: They had paratroopers land on the first fairway before.
Speaker 4: That, and I've never gone to a golf event tournament
like you know, profession and they have them here in
Vegas obviously, you know, one or two a year. I
think I need to go check that out. I've never
gone to a golf event.
Speaker 2: Well, so I followed the first day, I followed Bryce
and Dashiambeau, not because I wanted to follow Bryson, but
because I wanted to follow the other guys in his group.
And I will just tell you that following Bryce and
day Shambeau is you might as well just be prepared.
You're gonna be hanging out with a lot of teenage
dudes and they're just gonna be constantly going Bryce.
Speaker 3: Soon yo oad bro. Bryce is getting ready to hitch
bro Chad. Bryce's getting ready to hit Chad.
Speaker 8: She Bryce's leg.
Speaker 2: It was a blast, but after about nine holes, I
had had enough.
Speaker 7: I'll just say that.
Speaker 6: Live.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was good.
Speaker 2: H John asked anything on Diana Way contendacaries fights. Yes,
my article is done. I have to wait until the
plays come out of the lines come out on the
domestics on DraftKings. Bet online has the lines out already.
Why because bet online always has the lines out first.
Speaker 3: But yeah, you got a couple big.
Speaker 2: You have like three massive favorites and two that are
I think gonna be pretty close.
Speaker 3: Uh so, yeah, I know.
Speaker 4: Weight classes. Last day, this is I'm still empty. This
will be filled out by tomorrow when I have to go.
But by tomorrow nine am, I have to send them
all five sides in three totals, and so I'll have
my opinions tomorrow, that's for sure.
Speaker 2: I will just tell you all this. There's a guy
fighting on Contender Series tomorrow. I think I think he's
had like ten fights, three of them were in one night.
He's come, he's his last fight was he fought in
one of those tournaments where you have to fight three times.
Speaker 3: In one night. And I went and watched. Dude, this
guy is a dog. You're gonna love him. This guy
is a dog.
Speaker 2: He won the championship with a busted up I from
one of his earlier fights, and he knocked the dude out.
Speaker 3: You're gonna love him. Ramiro Hemenez.
Speaker 5: Absolutely this week. Last week was a little strange, A little.
Speaker 1: Strange, it was.
Speaker 3: It was. It was very weird.
Speaker 2: So yeah, we're off to a great star Jiohnny Teller.
Speaker 3: And what we have up for Monday, awesome, brother.
Speaker 4: Yes, I have the college football this we got football
coming up Saturday. I don't know if you guys know it,
but I have a college football pass it's already up
there for you with a four percent and a three
percent for Saturday finished number one in college football two
of the last four seasons, only one losing college football
season since twenty twenty.
Speaker 5: So the college football is there now.
Speaker 4: The NFL's got to get up the par and that's
why I said, I hunted down.
Speaker 5: Really good information. I'm excited so far paying it out.
The futures passes up there as well.
Speaker 4: Let's combined, got a lot of volume in there because
I put division winners in there. I put Super Bowl
winners in there, whether teams will make the playoffs, as
well as season win totals as well. Like I explained
to my subscribers in the steam room, I am comfortable
putting twenty twenty five percent of my bank roll on
those futures because the return on investment has been just
so good long term. But again, manage your risk how
you feel. I hope you guys do some damage this week.
Baseball will be up and don't forget us open coming
your way within the next ten to fifteen minutes if.
Speaker 5: You're a subscriber. So let's have a good week and
see you guys tomorrow.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Gionni and I will talk Dana Way Contender Series
tomorrow once we get all the lines official and the
weigh ins and everything. Denan another great question, in your opinion,
what's the sharpest book for tennis? Okay, this is a
really important question, guys. If you have the domestic books,
you are only playing on FanDuel. FanDuel has the best
rules for when a player retires or gets injured during
a match.
Speaker 3: This is really important.
Speaker 2: Check the rules on your book because books do it
completely different. If your player gets hurt retires in like
the second set, your.
Speaker 3: The bet is just void and you don't lose other.
Speaker 2: Books, if your player retires, it goes down as a loss.
It's worth taking a little bit of a worse number
on a book like FanDuel than it is another book,
just because the rules are going to.
Speaker 3: Be more in your favor. So it's not with tennis.
Speaker 2: In my opinion, it's not necessarily what's the sharpest book
with the lines. It's which books have the best rules
that favor the better. So we had a situation last
week with a tennis play. If you bet it on FanDuel,
you want a parlay. If you bet it on another book,
it went down as a loss. So, Dennan, it's a
really good question. And tennis is tough because each book
has all kinds of different lines. But if you have FanDuel,
check FanDuel, and please check your rules.
Speaker 3: That's the most important thing.
Speaker 2: Check the rules of the sports book to see how
they how they grade some of those plays. So great questions, guys.
If you have any questions, put them in the chat.
Let's keep it rolling here with Bill Krackberger. We got
to talk a little MLB prop, we got to talk
a little NFL preseason.
Speaker 3: So Bill, Happy Monday. How are you today?
Speaker 6: Hey good.
Speaker 8: I'm pretty shocked to see all those My camera not working, guys.
Speaker 3: Sorry, you've never looked better. Bill, I'm skiing, you know why.
Speaker 8: I have my odds screen up, So I was looking
at the odd screen just gonna be one.
Speaker 6: I can't believe this.
Speaker 8: Cleveland, Cleveland and Denver really getting a lot of love
this morning. Here, I'll put the screen back on. I
was trying to look at bull screens the same time.
I see it doesn't work.
Speaker 6: Uh yeah, early Monday morning.
Speaker 8: I'm surprised that the lines moving like they're moving without
vegas being up. So uh, you know, here we are
nine twenty am Monday. I don't have Circa Westgate South Point.
There's no Vegas lines up really so which you can
get down some decent money on those at those sportsbooks.
But yet, like I said, there's no Vegas lines up yet,
kind of waiting to attack a little bit. But I'm
surprised to see some of those lines move so much
because of the cumultive money you can get down. And
a couple of you now that I look like a
couple of the far off places aren't even up. So
but if someone's looking the bed, you know, early morning,
Monday morning, it's something happens in the regular season. So
Sunday night NFL, the lines come out, and yet someone
will attack the.
Speaker 6: Lines to get down a dime or two.
Speaker 8: But if you think about it, we only have a
five percent edge, six percent edge, I'll be nice to
say a ten percent edge, and that's not the.
Speaker 6: Case on Sunday night.
Speaker 8: And let me just tell you that means you have
for every thousand dollars, you get one hundred dollars return
on investment. And I know you can get down with
these books when they open up. So yeah, you have
to wait for a market in order to have liquidity
in order.
Speaker 6: To bet for your for you and your and your clients.
Speaker 8: So uh yeah, no, it's a preseason has been a
little bit tougher this year.
Speaker 6: Week two is a little bit better.
Speaker 8: And like, just like Giohnny said, boy, I'll tell you what,
it's tough to come on after Gianny.
Speaker 6: He is just so full of energy.
Speaker 8: But right, left and right, you feel like you're in
a three round or what Mike Tyson with your hands
tied behind your back. So uh yeah, But however, though
I love it.
Speaker 6: It's great.
Speaker 8: It's good energy to start off the Monday morning with
h Andy.
Speaker 2: Well, well we're gonna get to MLB prop, but football
is king, so John asked in the comment would love
to hear Bill and Andy discuss Dallas Cowboys wins and
playoff futures. I will tell you right now, Dan and
I broke down the Cowboys a while ago, and I
leaned the under on seven and a half.
Speaker 3: I'm seeing eight and a.
Speaker 2: Half's on the wind totals. I'll gladly taken under eight
and a half. I think the Eagles are better than them.
I think Washington better than them Giants. Who knows, but
I don't trust this Cowboys team, new coaching staff. I
don't trust Dak, and if you bump this up to
eight and a half, I will be forced to take
the under on this one. Playoffs are a little murky
because you never know what happens in other divisions. Some
quarterbacks get hurt and maybe Dallas sneaks in. I wouldn't
take a yes or no on the playoffs, but under
eight and a half, I think I would lean the under.
Speaker 3: What do you think?
Speaker 8: And every year for the last three or four years,
three years in a row, I've had Dallas under futures
and I've cashed on him under ten and.
Speaker 6: A half wins under.
Speaker 8: But now they set the line a little bit lower.
I've seen about eight wins eight and a half. Like
you're saying, this is the first year that I mean,
I definitely don't have Dallas over, but I don't have
under on Dallas, so I think they have properly adjusted
this team. I think Dak Prescott, out of all those quarterbacks,
I think that Dak Prescott has it's probably the most
overpaid out of all those big quarterback contracts that are
out there.
Speaker 6: That's an active player. In my opinion.
Speaker 8: A matter of fact, I think I ready is the
highest paid player in football. How can Dak get more
than Mahomes? I mean, you know, but Mahomes has to
redo his contract or something. If Dak Prescott's getting sixty
million dollars this year, I just don't see what everyone else,
well not what everyone else people are. There are some
people on my side, but it's tough to play under
that Jerry Jones, you know, the whole regime over there.
Speaker 6: It's tough to play for a guy.
Speaker 8: That owns the team, that's the GM, that's just like,
oh god, he's like a dictator. It's so hardy, you know, Jerry,
let the team, Let the team play. Executives that are
half your age, that are enamored in the in the
actual playing on the field, take over and make some decisions.
Maybe that's the reason why you haven't seen a Super
Bowl win in someone in decades.
Speaker 6: So, but yeah, this is a team people love to hate.
I'm on that bandwagon.
Speaker 8: Even people in Dallas hate the Cowboys, So I may
just root against them, especially that you're gonna play the under.
Speaker 6: But I'm not betting over though, that's for sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, let's move to an MLB prop every week.
Speaker 3: Come on, give us an MLB prop with what not?
A ton of games?
Speaker 2: But is there one that you're kind of leaning towards today?
Speaker 8: Yeah, we're gonna go with We're gonna go with the
Blue Jays, the gas Man, Kevin Gossman, and we're gonna
go strikes, strikeouts over five and a half. I'm looking
on a couple of different sites right now. Let me
just make sure I never want to give out a line. Yeah,
five and a half over twenty. So he has been picturing,
he's been, always been like a great strikeout pitcher in
his career. And he goes against the Pirates today, who
have the sixth highest strikeout rates is the All Star break,
So it should be a good pictures duol today too.
You know the schemes I'm taking, it should really be.
Speaker 6: A good picture. Do I like that kid too?
Speaker 7: Though?
Speaker 8: Again over over strikeouts. I have a couple of different
sites that take these. You know, here in Vegas we
don't have these Like back East they have the fan
duels and DraftKings have all these options. Here we have
like bet MGM has has like one hundred ways to
bet each game. I'm on their shameless plug for BETMGM,
but hey, they're they're there with all these different options.
Caesars has a lot of options too, but unfortunately I
got thrown out of there for winning, So I only
really have bet MGM to look at here for these
type of bets. They have many ways to bet a game.
Matter of fact, there's only two places I know in
this town, Circa and bet MGM that have ways to
take the alternative win totals. I really like doing that
and instead of you know, instead of thinking the flat
eight and a half minus one the one ten each way,
they'll they'll have over nine and a half or over
ten and a half or under, and you can lay
some juice there. And you know, speaking of which, yesterday
I was saying on my Fox show, so I love that.
Let's say the Eagles they're opening up football, so let's
say you want to get on the Eagles season wins,
under which I kind of lean to a little bit.
I was linked to the Super Bowl winner, thinking there's
a lot of square money in that market, and even
the sports books will they'll they'll put up their lines
and scoo the line a little bit towards the over
knowing and with the anticipation of which way people are betting.
So I like the win totals as the season progresses again,
bet MGM, the DraftKings and fandules of the world. They
offer that type of bet. Maybe Caesars does. I don't know,
but like if you're looking at season wins, like you
see a seven point favorite Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 6: Are playing the Eagles.
Speaker 8: Eagles are seven point favorite, so you you know you
think they're gonna win that game. Maybe wait one more
week and the eleven and a half becomes twelve and
a half wins or becomes twelve wins and you get
to have them meet you at only thirteen wins. So
I love betting the alternative markets. I love betting the
markets that are adjusted as the season goes on.
Speaker 6: And I'll talk to the who.
Speaker 8: Is who over at wager Talk to see if we
could put a couple of them up as the season
goes on. Because there's only limited sports books, they don't
have them at the rest of the sportsbooks. But I
think there's some value there as the weeks go on.
Looking forward to the football season to be real, blunt,
I love baseball, going to a game, I don't go
to NFL games, get a lot of invites to go
to Raiders games. May go to one or two games.
It's just tough because I do a Fox Fox Sports
show in the morning, Fox Sports Radio, just so tough
Sunday morning.
Speaker 6: Then get out into the game.
Speaker 8: Betting is still my number one way of making money
in my life, So Sunday mornings alone, it's tough. I
used to play those parlay cards, which more and more
sports books are being taken over by these big corporate
books and taking those parlay cards away. Let me just
it's real simple. There's three or four that's still in
this town that have them. They come out, they're printed
on Wednesdays, so just think they're printed Wednesday. By Sunday,
the games are you know, definitely adjusted, they're definitely people
betting on them, so the games will move.
Speaker 6: And it's real simple.
Speaker 8: So let's say you have three teams and by the way,
that's what I'll bet three teamers. Three teamers, you get
five and a half to one and six to one
being true add so five and a half to one
you'll get on them. But what you do the value
here is betting the key numbers that are off. So
if a team is a two and a half pointy
favorite on the Parla card and now they're three or
three minus twenty or even three and a half, obviously
you want to bet the two and a half. This
is You're not going to be betting nothing you actually like.
This is a numbers based betting system which has been
very successful. I was escorted to the door at Delaware
Park with security beating them out of parlay cards twenty
years ago. So bad, and or they might be less
than twenty years ago, I guess fifteen years ago.
Speaker 6: But yeah, they took me to the door.
Speaker 8: After two seasons, they have they've had enough, but they
still have Parla cards here.
Speaker 6: Again.
Speaker 8: You want to bet the antiquated lines against the current
lines in a sharp sports book.
Speaker 6: So you don't want to look.
Speaker 8: At the lines at a station's or a coaster. You know,
you want to make sure you're looking at the lines
at the sharper sports books that control the market, the
Pinnacles to Chris's the Circus. You know, you want to
look at their lines and see where they're at and
compare them to the Parla cards. And they are in
three or four books here. Still that's just a good strategy,
very spontaneous. Little nugget tip there. By the way, don't
bet one hundred dollars on them, be ten bucks, bet
twenty bucks, No, because they will deny them. If you're
betting a larger amount, they will deny them, or they
will even say you can't bet that. You know, so
you can't bet that that game on the card. But
if you bet them in tens and twenties right the
kiosk or something, they're going to go right for I'm
not saying circumvent limits. I'm just saying you want to
bet less money. I have no problem. By the way,
if I like a three teamer that is six and
a half six and a half, six and a half
that now was seven and a half, seven and a half,
seven and a half, I'll bet them, but I'll just
bet them on a smaller amount. I'll bet a twenty
dollars or twenty five dollars, and I'll bet it over
and over again, you know a few times. So there's
a there's a way to get down a little bit.
And uh, listen, it's real simple.
Speaker 6: You're not doing anything illegal.
Speaker 8: You're you're betting what they offer that that's it. I
was over at a couple of casinos in town a
couple of years ago. They were actually telling me you
can't bet the favorite, get only about the underdog. Like
I couldn't even if I had videos of this stuff,
gaming wouldn't even believe what goes on.
Speaker 6: I'm not joking.
Speaker 8: I just told you can't bet that way, you can
only bet that way.
Speaker 6: That's multiple times in my life. I've been told that
on multiple different things.
Speaker 2: Imagine going into a restaurant and they're like, you can't
order the steak, you have to get a salad.
Speaker 3: What kind of restaurant.
Speaker 6: I haven't had a thousand nineties, so.
Speaker 2: Well, I will tell you you absolutely can play on
wager talk the end season win totals NBA.
Speaker 3: NBA is a cash cow. I those those are my
biggest in bets. Yes, last year was the the end season.
Speaker 2: But you can tell when teams are getting ready to
give up with the trade deadline and snag a great
number great teams that get off the bad starts so
they have an injury, when the guy's coming back, you
get an amazing line.
Speaker 3: So one hundred percent you can.
Speaker 8: Do that, yeah, yeah, yeah, And you know football contest
coming up here, and I'm going to be going around
here that first week football contest, and we have some
really good contests in town. I don't know why no
one's really talking about this college football contest at west Gate.
First of all, the contest at Westgate, the contest at Circa,
and the contest at South Point zero juice zero. Where
else can you play anything in a casino gambling wise.
Speaker 6: With no juice. It all goes back to the public.
Speaker 8: So the ones at the west Gate I was referring
to is college football seven picks against the spread, and
it's there is a lot. There's more people entering that
right now than has been entering the Super Book Super Contest.
So maybe I'm wrong, but I haven't heard about media.
I just think that's such a good contest to have here,
you know.
Speaker 6: To join up for.
Speaker 8: If you're gonna join, I know everyone wants to go
down to Circa and join the contest down there, and
you're gonna be against a lot more competition down there.
Here they have like maybe over five hundred people a
right I'm expecting I'm expecting like a thousand entries in
this half a million dollars in this pool. It's five
hundred dollars. By the way, Fiat group of friends get
in there. The super Contest also is great, fifteen hundred
dollars this year. And they also have uh they have
they're having a Survivor for five thousand dollars. There's about
fifty people on there so far. So yeah, I like
I like to help wes Kate a little bit there.
They're like they were the original, the Super Book, the
Big Book there. I was just here this week at
Bette Bash, my first bet Bash I ever went to.
And I was there for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday to my
podcast there as we know and Wader Talk. We did
our podcast wednesday there live what about one hundre people
in attendance.
Speaker 6: It was really cool.
Speaker 8: Lots of people, lots of special guests came on, lots
of fun and just to the the contest there, they're
gonna probably reach there. You know, Derek, I'm friends with Derek,
and you know he put up a number on these
things which were a lot of money. I mean the guarantee,
you know, tens of millions of dollars here.
Speaker 6: I would think they're going to reach that. Oh, definitely.
Speaker 8: Survivor is survivor may have twenty million, and that's pretty sick.
Speaker 6: That's we all in.
Speaker 8: No, it's the same thousand dollars entry. They may have
twenty million dollars in there. I think it's gonna be
about eighteen million in that in that contest last year,
as we know by week five and over ninety eight
percent route that's unbelievable.
Speaker 6: That's that's what I'm saying.
Speaker 8: So people are that opening night game Philadelphia versus Dallas.
People are probably thinking, you know, oh, Dallas, Philly is
gonna kill Dallas. You know, six and a half seven
point favorite. Well, that's what we thought about Cincinnati last year.
So most of the people though I'm looking talking to,
they're gonna have Denver Denver opening. You know, it's gonna
be a little bit of a tough, tough ask for
a team to come in that climate, first game of
the year after a hot summer. It may just still
be a little bit warm there and going to Denver.
Denver's a big favorite that week too, But anything can happen.
Anything can happen any week in the NFL.
Speaker 6: We never know.
Speaker 8: Looking forward to these contests. Over at the South Point two,
they have a twenty five thousand dollars contest no juice
I just found out about.
Speaker 6: I love these contests, by the way.
Speaker 8: It gives you a little action every week, so you
don't have to chase with the Sunday Monday night game.
I know the human tendency are human makeups to chase,
and you don't.
Speaker 6: Have to do that. Man, enjoy the contest.
Speaker 8: Put some plays in there, have some picks every week.
A buddy of mine said, you know, you should put
five or ten dollars on every single team over underseason
wins for the year. This way you have a little
root on those Sunday Monday night games when our tendency
is to get even from the weekend. So literally regular
season wins through a five bucks on every single team
have a little roote Sunday Monday night.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Interesting, interesting concept.
Speaker 2: I don't play in high money Survivors because it made
me so bad.
Speaker 3: I get I'm just playing.
Speaker 2: I'll play in the little ones uh bet onlines running
thirty dollars a piece.
Speaker 5: I'll buy a.
Speaker 2: Bunch of entries in that one and be perfectly happy
with that. But yeah, my days of playing the bigger
money Survivor, I just I get so mad at myself.
So all right, Bill, what do you have up for
everybody Monday?
Speaker 6: Well, listen, I'm going by.
Speaker 8: Their words here on on on Wager Talk, they were saying,
this has never happened before. Bill crack Man, you can
get a month of his He's right, though, who over
wrote that up? I don't know what talk for? Uh,
you know, for two hundred bucks you can get a
month of plays. We have this final week of preseason.
Of course, we're gonna have the NFL this year. It's
my first year of venturing into the NFL side, so
you'll get them also. You know, last three years, I
told you I've been one of my guys has been
doing NFL sides, and I just I know how hard
it is to be the NFL sides.
Speaker 6: We're gonna probably.
Speaker 8: Put them out on Monday mornings, though maybe Tuesday to latest.
Speaker 6: One OF's some liquidity.
Speaker 8: But yeah, when I have a full size this year,
last three years, the only for years I've tracked this
kid he has you know, I sat there with my
you know what in my hands, and as this kid's won,
you know, fifty five fifty eight units.
Speaker 6: I'm sorry, in three years, I believe you said to
me yesterday.
Speaker 3: Nice.
Speaker 8: Oh yeah, we're gonna have You're gonna have that size.
We're gonna ask some great totals, some great first half stuff.
I like bett in first half totals a lot in
the NFL. So look forward to this Way to Talk
has a sick rate up for two hundred bucks.
Speaker 6: So join us over there and have some fun. Let's
get some winners together, all.
Speaker 3: Right, crack man joining us every week. Thank you so much.
Speaker 6: Good luckily SMI.
Speaker 3: Let's have a great week. We'll do it again next week.
Speaker 8: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Bill mentioned his special.
Speaker 2: We have a sight wide special seven days for sixty
nine dollars that is still up. I believe tomorrow is
the last day, so flex picks you can get this
is this is discounting from ninety nine dollars down to
sixty nine dollars. It was a huge, huge weekend. But
you can lock in seven days. Now that you get
this week and the weekend. You get to pick your
handy kapper each day. Somebody has a five percent best
bet up tonight that you like. You could use that
hopefully catch.
Speaker 3: That one move in tomorrow. You can move with the
same handicapper each day, or you can switch it up.
It's all up to you. That's what That's a beauty
of flex pick.
Speaker 2: So seven days, just six nine dollars less than ten
bucks a day over at wager talk, and that works
with any handicapper each day.
Speaker 3: All right, let's bring on Steve Merrill.
Speaker 2: And we're gonna talk a little bit of MLB and
college football. So Steve, let's start with college football. We're
already getting a college football talk in the chat here,
so hope you had a great weekend. Let's talk this
s Iowa State Kansas State game in Ireland. Because I
don't know about you, but when I think Ireland, I
think Iowa State versus Kansas State.
Speaker 3: It's just the first.
Speaker 2: Thing that comes to mind. It's a perfect match made here.
So how do you approach this first game? Here?
Speaker 3: We got overseas, They got a lot of weird stuff
going on. What's your breakdown?
Speaker 9: So there are four Division one A games this week.
There are actually nine total college football games. The other
five games involved at least one of not two one
double A teams FCS versus FBS. I'm dating myself with
the one A one double A stuff. But this is
definitely the spotlight game this week. In fact, I wasn't
planning on doing my college football Top.
Speaker 7: Twenty five video until Week one.
Speaker 9: I don't acknowledge Week zero with my Top twenty five video,
but I kind of have to this week because this
is a top twenty matchup. So let's knock it out
here and do a deep dive analysis about the side
and total. This is the official first college football game
of the year. Goes at twelve neon Eastern this Saturday,
and what is that August the twenty third, high noon
Eastern on ESPN, and that is probably like five pm
early evening in Dublin, Ireland.
Speaker 7: Ninth or tenth time.
Speaker 9: I believe they've played games in Ireland goes all the
way back to the late nineteen eighties, which surprised me,
and then they took a hiatus for almost two decades,
resumed in twenty twelve Notre Dame Navy, and then we've.
Speaker 7: Had games since then as well.
Speaker 9: In fact, we've played each of the last three years
at this exact stadium, and we've of course had Northwestern
Nebraska high score and shootout thirty one to twenty eight
three years ago. Two years ago we had Notre Dame
romping Navy forty two to three. And then last year
we had that big upset Georgia Tech I believe about
a ten point dog beat what turned out to be
a vastly overrated Florida State team twenty four to twenty one.
Of course, Florida State was top ten at that point
and just fell in their face all season long. This
is a big game. These are two top twenty RAN teams.
As I mentioned, they're both two of the top three
favorites along with probably Arizona State to win what's a
very mediocre Big twelve conference this year. And it's also
interesting because it's a quick rematch, something we hardly ever see.
These teams played in late November last year at Iowa State.
Cyclones won that game twenty nine to twenty one. Little
bit misleading though if you look at the box score. Yes,
they had a twenty two to fourteen first down edge,
but Kansas Skate outgained them by forty yards, outgained them
by nearly two two yards per play. And what really
jumps out to me from last year's game was the
passing result seven point six yards per pass to three
point eight for Iowa State. Cyclones did run for about
forty yards more, but Kansas State four point six to
four point three yards per rush, So if you look
at the yards per play, yards per pass, those are
the numbers I like to break down. In general, Kansas
State was as good, if not better in that game.
The difference, of course two turnovers to none, and they
were on the road, So this is a quick revenge spot.
And don't forget that win allowed Iowa State to advance
to the Big twelve championship game against Arizona State. They
ended up getting a top four seed in the College playoff,
So I do think Kansas State is this game circled.
There's obviously uncertainty when you're traveling overseas with nineteen twenty
twenty one year olds going to Dublin, Ireland, But I'm
going to handicap this game as a clean handicap. Two
top twenty teams both returned their quarterbacks, they both returned
their coaching staffs, very similar to last year's matchup, and
on surface, I think Kansas State has like ten returning starters.
Iowa was state thirteen. But you got to look at
production returning and also the transfer portal. I actually rate
Kansas State with the better returning production of both offense
and defense versus Iowa State. So I thought they were
as good, if not better last year. I would lay
the three. And by the way this line is moving around,
we have mostly minus threes out there right now, juiced
in some spots. I've even seen a three and a
half start to pop, So I'd grabbed minus three or less.
If you like Kansas State. If you like Iowa State,
I would wait. You probably will find some plus three
and a half's later this week as we get closer
to the weekend. As far as the total goes in
this one, sitting right now around about forty nine and
a half after opening forty nine, I've seen a couple
of fifties pop in some of the Sharper books.
Speaker 7: I would agree with the over. Fifty one is the
key number.
Speaker 9: Fifty is a dead number as long as it stays
below fifty one, which is a very key number with totals.
I think the over is worth a looking once again,
It's always dicey when you're playing overseas unusual setting, but
we have seen some points in this venue over the years.
Obviously the Notre Dame Navy game two years ago an
option run attack a blowout, we disregard that, but we
did get fifty nine points in that Nebraska Western game
three years ago, and last year twenty four to twenty one,
forty five points. Considered how bad that Florida State offense
turned out to be was fairly high scoring as well.
So I lean Kansas State minus three or less, and
I would lean the over forty nine and a half
Top twenty matchup to start off the college football season
twenty twenty five this Saturday at New Eastern on ESPN.
And don't forget, I will have my weekly college football
Top twenty five video each and every week going forward,
so make sure you subscribe and me click the bell
here on wager Talk TV, and my full season college
and pro football specials are both available still right now
with special prices on my page Steve merrillwager Talk dot com,
and of course you can get there quicker with shortcut
WT dot buzz slash sm All.
Speaker 2: Right, Steve, let's move to the Major League Baseball. Let's
talk the Phillies and the Mariners. We got Suarez from
the Phillies, we got Gilbert for Mariners. A good pitching
matchup here today it's your take on this game.
Speaker 9: Yes, Andy, you know I'm very select. I've always about
one to three best bets per day. That last cut
goes up as a bonus free play, and this is
actually my official free play for Monday night. And they're
over a sixty percent run the past three and a
half weeks and it's free every day, So check out
my page every day for that free play. I'll give
it to you here, but you're going to go get
some deep dive written anawly Sais if I like to read,
go check that out as well. And also I do
have a strong Baseball best bet tonight for my client
says this game here was my last Cup. But I
do like the under in this game between the Phillies
and Mariners tonight on Monday for a few reasons. First
of all, Seattle Mariners really ice cold offensively right now.
You know they had that breakout against the Mets in
Game one on what was it Friday night, I believe,
when they put up eleven runs on sixteen hits. Yes,
they had ten hits yesterday against the Mets. But overall though,
this team has still lost for their last five games,
and they have scored at least three runs or less
in six of their last seven, and everyone talks about
how hitter friendly unhitter friendly Pecco is up in Seattle,
but they're not doing very well on the road here
against Baltimore and the Mets A six games stand here
once again, three runs are less in every one of
those games except that one game on Friday, So not
in good current form. The question becomes can Rangers Suarez
bounced back after two bad starts. I think he can.
He's only pitched one hundred and twelve innings this year.
He's a veteran pitcher. He won one hundred and fifty
last year, one hundred and twenty five a year before,
so I don't think he's hit a wall. He has
a solid three point three ERA this season, even after
giving up eleven runs in his last twelve innings of
work the last two starts, still has a solid three
point three ERA. So this is the type of situation
where I look for him to bounce back after bad
to bed back to back bad outings against an offense
that's struggling. So I look for Suarez to pitch well.
But I also think Logan Gilbert's going to pitch well
tonight for the Mariners. Solid three point three ERA on
the season, three point two over his last seven starts
going back to early July, and my pitcher projection ratings
also look for Gilbert to have a solid outing, and
the current Phillies lineup that's facing him tonight have not
fared well against the Mariner starter. In fact, the Phillies
are just This lineup is just two oh five batting
average sixteen for seventy eight career against Gilbert. So I
look for both starting pitchers to at the edge tonight.
I like under eight in this game. Now I would
shop around. There's under eight minus one twenty. Some sharp
money has dropped this to seven and a half in
some locations over twenty. By the way, eight and seven
and a half, it's worth about twenty cents. It's not
a key number. The odd numbers are key with baseball
total seven to nine eleven because of extra innings. If
a game is tied four to Ford has to get
to least nine runs, So eight under twenty or under
seven and a half even is actually the same long
term expected return. So don't sweat it, but shop around
as both numbers are available. With the under tonight between
the Mariners and Phillies. And by the way, this is
your six forty five Eastern National TV game on MLB Network.
It's in Philly, but our producer Dan Alexander's now on
the West Coast. You will not be able to see
him streak the field during the seventh inning stretches he's
been known to do. And once again, I had this
up as my free play today at wager talk dot com.
Speaking of dam We're gonna knock out a double video
for the Royals Rangers game also Dodgers Rocky, so check
out that double free play video here on wager Talk
TV as well. Yet another reason to click the bell
and subscribe here, but also thumbs up like in positive
commets below, because we love the positive commets here on
wager Talk TV.
Speaker 3: Absolutely Steve great breakdown.
Speaker 2: I know you're eause, I love I love your top
twenty five college football.
Speaker 9: Break Then they gotta have to do it in week zero.
Speaker 7: Damn man can.
Speaker 9: Over the I I will say this though, Andy. You
know we talked about Florida State falling on their face
last year. There obviously were a flawed team, but you
do wonder about your top ten team double digit favorite.
You know your season's been wrecked already. You're flying back
from like Europe, and it's hard to get back up.
So my point being, whoever loses this game is taking
a major blow in the Big twelve because it's a
conference game, don't forget. And also, you know, a top
twenty five, they're gonna be bumped out of the rankings.
I'd be very careful with them going forward, is my point.
It'd be interesting to see if if the loser of
this game has the hangover like Florida State did last year.
Speaker 2: Was that the biggest misread on a top ten ranked
team before the season started last year?
Speaker 9: Yeah, I don't want to say, well, they were flat
because they lost that game because they were just miserable offensively.
I think they scored what was it like fourteen or
less and I'm like every game for like the next
two months. Hey, the transfer portal is you know, it
makes things so dicey now. And the other problem I
think you and I have seen, you know, with college
basketball and pro college football the last couple of years.
It's just motivation. We saw this in November December last
year in college basketball, some blue blood programs I remember
Indiana at times was like that. I'm sure you follow them.
You start paying these guys fifty one hundred thousand dollars,
especially in basketball, we only have maybe six or seven
guys you're dealing with. We're getting some real random results
at times, and it is changing how you have to handicap,
I think. But the bright side to that is I
think we can do situational handicapping more than ever, and
that's something you and I both love doing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely absolutely. I'm all about the team totals. You know,
That's all I do in college football. It's worked out
unbelievably well, well over sixty percent.
Speaker 3: Since I started doing just team totals.
Speaker 2: So I'm excited, man, I'm excited. So all right, Steve,
what do you have up for clients today?
Speaker 9: You mentioned the great seven days special, and I think
you're right. There's one more day remaining on that. So
it's seven days for sixty nine dude, no promo code,
need it. And it's an instant thirty percent discount because
it's nomally ninety nine dollars. You can do any caper,
you can multiple capers, do Andy Lang myself. Steve Merrill
gets seven days all access. And by the way, combining
Andy Lang and Steve Merrill is a really smart investment
approach because I'm doing football and baseball right now. Andy,
as he mentioned, college team totals, MMA, some little auto
racing mixed in golf, tennis, darts if it's in season, lacrosse,
perhaps the Propmaster. But you can also mix in different
capers with the seven day Flex Pass, and it's not
Flex Tuesday, it's Flex Monday because we have one day
remaining seven day all access for sixty nine. You can
pick a capper or do the seven day all Access
Flex Pass and choose a different cap for every day.
It's a great time to try to sampler at wager
talk dot com. There's no promo code needed, but it
expires in one day, so get there right now.
Speaker 7: Wager talk dot Com.
Speaker 3: Steve Merrill, everyone, We're going to do it all around
the world for.
Speaker 2: A couple free plays, and then we have a very
special treat our own John Hoglin, who's from Chicago, loves Chicago,
lives and breathes Chicago, is going to come on and
debate Dan Alexander about the Chicago Bears team total eight
and a half.
Speaker 3: This will be heated.
Speaker 2: But let's do a couple free plays here, real quick, Dan,
give the people a couple of things that they.
Speaker 3: Can look at today. Only a couple here.
Speaker 2: We got the Astros and the Tigers over eight and
a half. Rigatty for Houston only four appearances, gave up
five runs and two of them five walks the last
time out. Flaarty for the Tigers has given up eleven
runs in his last two starts, two pretty good offensive lineups.
And then Teddy Covers likes the Bengals minus three and
a half. Dan Quinn is one in twelve straight up
in ats.
Speaker 3: As head coach.
Speaker 2: That was from twenty seventeen to twenty nineteen. So we're
looking at Dan Quinn, who doesn't really care too much
about about preseason. So last seventeen games team has scored
fourteen points or last twelve times, So interesting stats there.
For Washington, they did score eighteen their last time out.
But Teddy's expecting a really good performance from Cincinnati here.
All right, let's do it chat, leave us, leave us
a comment in the comment section. Du Bears eight and
a half. I am out of this one. JH is
gonna come on, it's JH and Dan show here, guys,
So I will be the moderator.
Speaker 3: I will be the moderator, and John, I'm coming to
you first.
Speaker 2: You follow the Bears pretty much as close as even
the coaching staff.
Speaker 3: I'm assuming you're going over on this one.
Speaker 2: But tell us what you know about the Bears and
where you're going with this eight and a half.
Speaker 10: Yeah, last night's preseason game that got me pretty high up.
That was about the pull on my phone, started looking
at some some flights for the Super Bowl. I think
that first drive of the game might have been the
most efficient offensive drive I've seen the Bears have in
my twenty seven years of being a fan. But this
might not be as biased as you are expecting. It
might be the whole reason that you you had me
on was to get some hardcore bias takes. But I'm
gonna start off with a stat which I've seen all
over social media pretty much the past couple months, actually
probably the past couple of years, but the Bears have
only gone over their preseason win total once in the
past twelve years, and that was in twenty eighteen with
Mitch Trubisky when the Bears won twelve games. But I
think one difference this year compared to all of those
others years was the Bears went out and got an
all star coaching staff. The Bears have always been, you know,
notorious forgetting a coach that nobody's even wanted. But of
course Ben Johnson one of the most coveted coaches over
past you know what three years, and then he brings
in guys Dennis Allen, proven defensive coordinator, Antoine randol, Al
Harris Eric, the enemy is the running backs coach. But
eight and a half's an interesting total because right that's
the difference between you're really betting on is this going
to be a winning season or a losing season.
Speaker 11: So last night I knew coming on.
Speaker 10: So I went through the schedule and went actually for
the first time this whole offseason, game by game doing
the win loss, and I finished with a record of
nine and eight. So I'm leaning towards the over there.
But that's with splitting the division three and three between
the split in one to one with the Lions, Packers
and Viking. So if you don't think that the Bears
could split the division, you're probably in the same boat
as pretty much everybody else out there, and having them
going under the total. With Ben Johnson being the head coach.
I think everybody wants to compare the Bears to the Lions,
so I do see a little parallels between, like the
twenty twenty two Lions. I think they went nine and
eight that year, but they started off pretty poorly and
then rattle off like six of their last seven games,
finished nine and eight, missed the playoffs. So maybe there'll
be some play on spots for the Bears late in
the season. I know they played Dan's Eagles pretty late
in the season, Packers, the forty nine Ers, and then
the Lions. Jared Golf has to come into the cold
in Week eighteen if that game matters so.
Speaker 11: Slightly into the over for me.
Speaker 10: But like I said, that's because I have them split
in the division three to three.
Speaker 12: Andy, I mean he we got to give credit where
it's I mean, I mean, the man came prepared.
Speaker 1: The man came prepared.
Speaker 11: The debate that Dan and I had back in Detroit
a couple months.
Speaker 12: Yeah, now I will I will say, Andy, there will
probably be a little bit more decorum for our debates,
uh than there was when we were uh sitting.
Speaker 5: Around in Greek Town on on like.
Speaker 1: Our third and fourth mythos of the evening.
Speaker 12: So so I don't know if the hot takes will
come as as much, but I do have a question
because I so when this line opened it actually was
five and a half, Like we were looking at five
and a half for the Chicago Bears, and we've seen
it clearly the market agreeing with JH that this team
is going to be better than bottom feeders, and you know,
I would probably argue that as well. However you mention,
you know, okay, so you split with the division. There's
your three wins? Where's the other wins you're see? Because
I'm looking at this Bear schedule and this is a
fourth hardest schedule in the league. So so what the
one that stands out to you? You gotta win against
the Saints, I'm sure, Then what else stood out? Do
you probably have a win against the Giants is probably
the other one that you're seeing there? And then what
against the Raiders or are those three ones that you
that you chalked up? Because where are the other wins
coming from?
Speaker 6: Is?
Speaker 11: Yeah?
Speaker 1: My first question before I give my notes.
Speaker 10: When I went game by game, I actually had them
starting off pretty hot, starting four and one or shccer
three to one going into the by, because.
Speaker 12: Fresh off the thirty eight point win in preseason, Andy,
we gotta be going hot into the season, right, So well, listen.
Speaker 2: He said, most efficient drive you's scene in twenty years.
Speaker 1: That's how, that's how.
Speaker 12: That's how I felt the year when Chip Kelly had
Sam Bradford and they couldn't miss in the preseason and
everyone thought this was going to be the greatest office ever.
So I know the exact feeling Jah has right now.
But put that aside. You think they're starting off the
season hot, where are the wins at JH.
Speaker 10: I've got to mention winning opening night on Monday Night
Football against the Vikings. People got to remember that's a
rookie quarterback starting too. JJ McCarthy hasn't in Chicago. Yeah,
in Chicago in prime time. I do have him losing
the following week with Ben Johnson going back to Detroit,
but I do have them beaten the Raiders and the
Cowboys heading into the buy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not bad.
Speaker 12: And and also that early by typically you're not gonna
like an early by, but they get to escape that
Vegas flu, which which has actually had some credence the
teams don't really cover games after playing Las Vegas, so
I'm not I'm not coming on here to completely bat
I know any probably wants some more fireworks, but I
can understand.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I can.
Speaker 12: Understand the excitement around and why Sharp have pushed this
thing up from five and a half to eight and
a half.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 12: I was gonna come on with a crazy hot take
and like make a case for under five and a
half and really go wild, but I can't do that
to you, Jage, because I think this Bears team will
be better. The part that gives me pause is, yes,
I'm excited for Ben Johnson. I think he is a
terrific addition. I think he has a chance to build
something here in Chicago. But will those results be immediate?
That's where I'm a little bit lukewarm on this thing
getting pushed up three whole entire wins to eight and
a half. I think the number right around eight and
a half makes more sense here where you're really either
gonna be cashing or losing by a hook.
Speaker 1: Because I think it's a great number.
Speaker 12: But for me, Ben Johnson, you're adding in excitement, you're
adding in a offensive, brilliant, young head coach, and he's
a guy who can really move pieces around and get
the most out of his roster. The problem for me, though, gentleman,
lies in the pieces of which he will be moving
around the proverbial chessboard he was with the Lions. You
have a little bit more to work with, JH. Than
what you have to work with here in Chicago. You
have an ultimate, you know, the the Jared Goff, who
is a system quarterback to end all system quarterbacks. Like
he will do what you ask.
Speaker 7: Him to do.
Speaker 12: He's not going to do anything more. He's not going
to do anything less. My issue probably lies more with
now you're going to be asking Caleb Williams to be
the system I know you love Caleb Williams. This is
a man, folks, who has said before that Caleb Williams
is a better quarterback than Jalen Hurts. I wish I
had it on record. Maybe he'll say it here so
we have the record. But Andy, you can back me up.
Those words were said, correct in Greek Town.
Speaker 2: It got a little heated in the moment, and yes,
some things were said. Some things were said a very
high volume. So JH, do you stand by that Caleb Williams.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I figured this was going to be brought up,
but those debates over a few cold drinks are a
little different than.
Speaker 11: We'll revisit that one after this season. We'll see, we'll
revisit and see where we're at there.
Speaker 12: But a smart man, a politician in his core, walking
back the Caleb Williams first chailhards so that he has
some legitimacy to his over there.
Speaker 1: But that's the thing for.
Speaker 12: Me, Andy is is Caleb Williams. Can he run the
system the same way that Jared Goff does and implement
that season that in week you know, in the first
season of Ben Johnson.
Speaker 1: I'm not so sure.
Speaker 12: So that's why I ever so slightly have to lean
JH to the under. So you and I will make
up a side bet. We'll go head to head on
the eight and a half. I think they get eight wins.
You think they get nine wins. It's as close as
you can call it. But JH, I will admit to you,
I think this is going to be a Chicago team
who in years to come is going to be a
force to be reckoned with. I'm just not so sure
if it's going to be this year so under for me, Andy,
you can you can break the tie.
Speaker 1: What do you think of this eight.
Speaker 7: And a half?
Speaker 2: I think they need one more to get used to
a new coaching staff. I think dealing with the new
coaching staff, there's just going to be some bumps in
the road. But I have high hopes for him next year.
Speaker 3: I think.
Speaker 2: I think once they get their their their their coaching
staff under control, and once they get a really good system,
I think they're going to be better next year. Ever
so slightly into that, but I'm certainly not going to
play it with my own money, so that that's where
I stand on it.
Speaker 1: So this is what they think about your Jalen Hurts take.
Speaker 10: Hey, there's also a guy who said that he can
be by the end of the year, So let's put
that one up there too.
Speaker 1: I didn't see that one. I did that one. I
didn't see that one. I don't think I have access.
Speaker 3: I have access to the comments too, Dan JH. You
have an amazing Instagram account.
Speaker 2: Tell everyone about it because I love following it and
I don't even follow Chicago sports that that much.
Speaker 3: So tell us about that. It's a It's a fantastic
follow on.
Speaker 11: I g yeah. So it's all Chicago sports content.
Speaker 10: You can see it here. It's six point Sports. I
make all kinds of ridiculous videos overacting about the Bears, Cubs, Bulls, Blackhawks,
whatever's going on in Chicago sports, and some betting content
mixing as well.
Speaker 3: Awesome stuff.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much Ja for coming on and go Bears.
Speaker 1: I'm proud of my.
Speaker 2: Man rooting for rooting for him, So John Hoggling everybody
it was responsible for for most of the great content
on our social media platform.
Speaker 3: So wit long today. But it was a great show.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Digiatti, Thank you to Bill, thank you to Steve,
thank you to JH for coming on, Dan, thanks for
coming in.
Speaker 3: And that wraps up our season win totals.
Speaker 2: Will recap all the season win totals tomorrow, so make
sure you're joining us same time tomorrow noon Eastern here
and if you haven't hit the like button, what are
you doing? Hit the like button to leave us a
comment below, tell us what you think of.
Speaker 3: The Bears total eight and a half.
Speaker 2: Tomorrow's five dollars Tuesday, so we are going to be
ready locked and loaded. It's Contender Series Tuesday, so we'll
see them. Thanks very much for joining us, good luck
on all your bets and take care