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<v Speaker 1>What explains most of the variation and crime rates are

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<v Speaker 1>law enforcement, higher rest rates, higher conviction rates, longer prison sentences,

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<v Speaker 1>the death penalty explain over half of the variation that

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<v Speaker 1>you see in crime rates over time and across places.

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<v Speaker 1>And so if you want to go and deal with this,

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<v Speaker 1>you want to make it risk here for criminals to

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<v Speaker 1>go and commit crimes. And I agree with you that

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<v Speaker 1>that's going to be the result. Now, there are some

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<v Speaker 1>things that Trump's already done that's helped reduce crime across

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<v Speaker 1>the country. One of them has been deporting illegal aliens,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly emphasizing those who have criminal records.

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<v Speaker 2>You are listening to Carrie. Let'sa's Financial Survival Network where

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<v Speaker 2>you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

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<v Speaker 2>to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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<v Speaker 2>Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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<v Speaker 2>dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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<v Speaker 2>Survival Network now than ever.

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<v Speaker 4>And welcome.

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<v Speaker 3>You are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm your host, Kerrie Lutzon.

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<v Speaker 3>Today we're joined by doctor John Lott Junior, one of

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<v Speaker 3>the most respected and controversial voices in the gun policy debate.

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<v Speaker 3>His seminal work I read I highly recommend more guns,

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<v Speaker 3>less crime, and he's also a founder of the Crime

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<v Speaker 3>Prevention Research Center. Really thrilled to have you back on here. John,

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<v Speaker 3>I saw you at Freedom Fest this summer. It was

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<v Speaker 3>great to bump into you, I should say, last summer,

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<v Speaker 3>and well, we got some things going on here. It

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<v Speaker 3>looks like even the left doesn't believe that if more guns,

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<v Speaker 3>if they belong to the National Guard, and more policemen,

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<v Speaker 3>that that's going to bring down crime. What we're talking about, obviously,

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<v Speaker 3>is President Trump federalizing the DC Police Department, which you

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<v Speaker 3>can do by the nineteen seventy three Home Rule Act

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<v Speaker 3>that gave a DC limited ability to rule its own affairs,

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<v Speaker 3>which we see how wonderful that has worked out. And

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<v Speaker 3>he's called an eight hundred guardsmen and roving bands of

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<v Speaker 3>FBI DEA agents.

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<v Speaker 4>Like I got a.

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<v Speaker 3>I can't even picture John like an FBI agent doing

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<v Speaker 3>a traffic stop.

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<v Speaker 4>They don't know how to do that.

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<v Speaker 3>But just their presence probably is making a big difference,

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<v Speaker 3>isn't it.

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<v Speaker 4>I think so.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's not rocket science about what's going on.

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<v Speaker 1>If you want a lower crime, you have to make

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<v Speaker 1>it more costly riskier for criminals to go and commit crimes.

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<v Speaker 1>You can do that with higher rest rates, which putting

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<v Speaker 1>more people on the street is surely going to help

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<v Speaker 1>with that, more prosecutions and actually punishing people, and maybe

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<v Speaker 1>one can also add letting victims be able to go

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<v Speaker 1>and defend themselves. But you know, you look at what

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<v Speaker 1>the situation was just before Trump got involved. You have

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<v Speaker 1>about four hundred or so patrol officers on duty at

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<v Speaker 1>most at any point in time in DC. That's four

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<v Speaker 1>hundred people to go and protect seven hundred and twenty

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<v Speaker 1>one thousand people out there. That's asking a lot. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think the police unions were right there saying that

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<v Speaker 1>they were stretched incredibly thin. Plus there were all sorts

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<v Speaker 1>of other restrictions.

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<v Speaker 4>That are there.

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<v Speaker 1>So the first night that Trump rolled out his new

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<v Speaker 1>policy there they added another eight hundred and twenty officers

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<v Speaker 1>on the street, law enforcement people on the street. That's

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<v Speaker 1>you know, essentially no trouble the enforcement effort that they

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<v Speaker 1>had before. That's a huge change that's there. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>with regard to prosecutions, prosecutions of adults are handled by

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<v Speaker 1>the US Attorney for DC, and during Biden the person

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<v Speaker 1>that was there was just refusing to prosecute cases of

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<v Speaker 1>the arrests. In twenty twenty two, the guy refused to

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<v Speaker 1>actually prosecute sixty seven percent of the arrests. In twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty three, he still refused to prosecute fifty five percent

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<v Speaker 1>of the arrests that were there, and even the ones

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<v Speaker 1>that they prosecuted, it was often for very reduced penalties.

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<v Speaker 1>And so you know, you're not arresting people. The people

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<v Speaker 1>that you are arresting, you're not prosecuting, you know, just crazy.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course there's the police union has been pushing

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<v Speaker 1>hard on the scandal, saying that the city has been

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<v Speaker 1>kind of corrupting the crime data there, kind of reclassifying

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<v Speaker 1>what would have been a felony as a misdemeanor in

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<v Speaker 1>order for it not to be rooted in the FBI data.

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<v Speaker 1>So like take aggravate assaults and reclassifying them there's simple assaults,

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<v Speaker 1>and so you know, there are lots of problems over there,

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<v Speaker 1>but you know, one thing, it's more difficult to hide

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<v Speaker 1>as murder data. In twenty twenty three, of the sixty

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<v Speaker 1>most populous cities in the United States, d C ranked

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<v Speaker 1>fifth in terms of murder rates.

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<v Speaker 3>They weren't try hard enough, you know, right, except number

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<v Speaker 3>one at one time?

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<v Speaker 4>Right, yeah, well they were at one time.

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<v Speaker 3>It sounds like the prosecutor went to the George Soros

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<v Speaker 3>School of Crime prevention.

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<v Speaker 4>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it's not too shocking, I mean, given that he

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<v Speaker 1>was a Biden appointee there, you know, But you're right.

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<v Speaker 1>They make the similar types of things in other places

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<v Speaker 1>where you have George Soros prosecutors Alvin Bragg in New

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<v Speaker 1>York City in Manhattan. One of the things that he's

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<v Speaker 1>been known for has been refusing to prosecute criminals for

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<v Speaker 1>firearms offenses. What makes it, for example, what makes the

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<v Speaker 1>difference between something being aggravated assault, which is a felony

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<v Speaker 1>and simple assault, which is a misdemeanor, as whether or

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<v Speaker 1>not a weapon was involved. And so if they're refusing

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<v Speaker 1>to prosecute these individuals as firearms offenses, they lower these

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<v Speaker 1>cases from felonies to misdemeanors. And then they put pressure

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<v Speaker 1>on the police not to initially record whether a firearm

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<v Speaker 1>was used in the offense because prosecutors don't want to

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<v Speaker 1>take the full blame for kind of reducing the penalties

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<v Speaker 1>for these cases. And So what happens is is that

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<v Speaker 1>Manhattan then under records the number of violent crimes that

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<v Speaker 1>are there, and it kind of messes up the FBI

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<v Speaker 1>data because the FBI relies on that.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, during Giuliani, I remember there was a commander that

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<v Speaker 3>fudged the numbers at one of the precincts and they

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<v Speaker 3>fired that guy almost instantaneously, who might have been an

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<v Speaker 3>inspector whatever, whoever they have at the major precincts, they

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<v Speaker 3>have a high ranking police official running. He lied, They

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<v Speaker 3>fired him on the spot. Bratton went there and took

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<v Speaker 3>his badge. And where is Bratton when you need him?

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<v Speaker 4>Right?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I mean, because the police unions in DC made

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<v Speaker 1>such a stink about it in July, the person was

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<v Speaker 1>suspended there, but he hasn't been fired yet. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>something needs to.

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<v Speaker 4>Be done, and.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just the media bias in terms of discussing all

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<v Speaker 1>this has been just kind of outrageous. They'll go and

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<v Speaker 1>mention that these official crime numbers have gone down the

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<v Speaker 1>last few years, but in many cases they're still very

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<v Speaker 1>high compared to what they were prior to COVID. You

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<v Speaker 1>look at carjackings, which is one of the things that

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<v Speaker 1>kind of got this going. When the Dodge former Dodge

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<v Speaker 1>official was attacked in twenty twenty three, there were nine

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and sixty nine of these carjackings that had occurred,

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<v Speaker 1>or twenty four it was down to like four hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and ninety five. But that's still you know, so they say, look,

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<v Speaker 1>it's falling, but that's still five times higher than what

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<v Speaker 1>it was in twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen before COVID,

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<v Speaker 1>and so you know, then it was kind of in

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<v Speaker 1>the nineties that you had these numbers. And so you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the fact checkers in the media say, well, Trump's wrong

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<v Speaker 1>about it being up compared to five years ago. They

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<v Speaker 1>don't mention the five years. They just go and say,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's it's fallen, and just look at the

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<v Speaker 1>last two years.

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<v Speaker 3>It's like inflation numbers. You know, if we checked inflation

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<v Speaker 3>the way we did in the eighties, it would be

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<v Speaker 3>double the rate that it is now. But when you

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<v Speaker 3>don't like the results, you just use it different to

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<v Speaker 3>a ruler. I remember there were some shady personal injury

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<v Speaker 3>lawyers in New York and they would take pictures of

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<v Speaker 3>holes in the ground that supposedly their clients tripped over

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<v Speaker 3>and they had a custom made ruler that said it

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<v Speaker 3>was twelve inches long, but it was only eight inches long. Fine,

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<v Speaker 3>you know this is the kind of thing when you

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<v Speaker 3>when you go changing everything around, you know this what happens.

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<v Speaker 3>So hopefully we're going to see a major, a major

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<v Speaker 3>drop in crime. I can't see how we can't see it.

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<v Speaker 3>And if Trump really does turn DC into a showcase,

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<v Speaker 3>what does does that say to all the other blue

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<v Speaker 3>cities that are failing, like your Detroit's Detroit's better than

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<v Speaker 3>it was, but it's still unacceptable, like New York, like Philly,

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<v Speaker 3>Baltimore especially. You know, that's going to make them look

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<v Speaker 3>really bad.

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<v Speaker 4>Just like that.

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<v Speaker 3>The Libs said that couldn't stop the the people coming

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<v Speaker 3>over the border, the invasion over the boarder, and Trump

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<v Speaker 3>did it in a week. Can't stop the crime because

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<v Speaker 3>you got to get to the basis of crime, because

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<v Speaker 3>you know, he had a tough toilet training, Johnny, and

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<v Speaker 3>therefore he became a serial killer.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, it's insane. And yet we're going to see.

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<v Speaker 3>A historic drop in crime, I almost guarantee you, because

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<v Speaker 3>he will feed as many people into that inferno as

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<v Speaker 3>he needs to stop it.

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<v Speaker 4>And then when he stops it, what do they say, then, Well, it.

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<v Speaker 3>Really wasn't that bad, John, You know, like murders were

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<v Speaker 3>already down thirty percent.

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<v Speaker 4>He already he only did he only fix what was

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<v Speaker 4>already being fixed.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, Yeah, Look, I mean you're exactly right on all

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<v Speaker 1>the points that you raise. I was going to raise,

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<v Speaker 1>in fact, also the point that I think this could

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<v Speaker 1>have an impact across the country. Constituencies are going to say, look,

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<v Speaker 1>this worked here, why don't we do the same things.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, there's a lot of academic work. I've done

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<v Speaker 1>some of this myself. When you look at things like

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<v Speaker 1>income and poverty and unemployment, does only explain one to

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<v Speaker 1>two percent of the variation in crime rate. What explains

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<v Speaker 1>most of the variation and crime rates are law enforcement,

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<v Speaker 1>higher rest rates, higher conviction rates, longer prison sentences, the

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<v Speaker 1>death penalty explain over half of the variation that you

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<v Speaker 1>see in crime rates over time and across places. And

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<v Speaker 1>so if you want to go and deal with this,

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<v Speaker 1>you know you want to make it riskier for criminals

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<v Speaker 1>to go and commit crimes. And I agree with you

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<v Speaker 1>that that's going to be the result. Now, there are

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<v Speaker 1>some things that Trump's already done that's helped reduce crime

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<v Speaker 1>across the country. One of them has been deporting illegal aliens,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly emphasizing those who have criminal records, and that does

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<v Speaker 1>it in two ways. One is it's removed some of

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<v Speaker 1>these criminals from the country, but even the ones that

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<v Speaker 1>they haven't caught, it's affected because they know that if

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<v Speaker 1>they get arrested, they'll be deported. And one way to

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<v Speaker 1>reduce the probability of being arrested is to try to

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<v Speaker 1>stay off police radars. And the way you stay off

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<v Speaker 1>police radars is not to commit crimes right now. And

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<v Speaker 1>so I think it's had an impact both in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of removing criminals and also causing other criminals to kind

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<v Speaker 1>of keep their heads down right now. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>they've already had some beneficial impact. But hopefully this will

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<v Speaker 1>educate people, just as you say it's correctly educating people

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<v Speaker 1>about the border.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, you know, I'm sure it's having a big impact

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<v Speaker 3>on home depot parking lots for sure.

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<v Speaker 1>Easier to pull in there, I guess.

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<v Speaker 4>Now.

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<v Speaker 3>So one thing, John, let's go back to Juliani, because

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<v Speaker 3>he was really the test case that proved that through

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<v Speaker 3>effective policing, enforcing minor laws, the so called broken windows

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<v Speaker 3>theory of policing, that you can effectuate huge declines, generational

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<v Speaker 3>declines in crime. And what did they say. They said, well,

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<v Speaker 3>it was demographic because the number of lawbreakers that sixteen

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<v Speaker 3>or fifteen to twenty four demographic. The number of them

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<v Speaker 3>had gone down dramatically. As somebody who was in New

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<v Speaker 3>York City during the term of David Dinkin seeing crime

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<v Speaker 3>exploding and watching it go all but disappear in many

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<v Speaker 3>parts of the city, I know that to be a lie.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, Yeah, well, I mean you're exactly right. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>famously proved the point, and he educated people around the

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<v Speaker 1>country and you had a number of police departments kind

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<v Speaker 1>of go and follow the rule. I mean, it's an

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<v Speaker 1>idea that James Q. Wilson, for the famous criminologists unfortunately

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<v Speaker 1>who's no longer with us, put out there that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if you make it so that a place is more livable,

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<v Speaker 1>people will be outside more, you'll have more witnesses, you'll

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<v Speaker 1>make it more difficult for criminals to go and commit crime.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's the policy that they did, and they moved

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<v Speaker 1>One of the other things they did is they moved

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<v Speaker 1>the police to places where crime was. Every morning they

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<v Speaker 1>would go and see where were the crimes occurring last night,

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<v Speaker 1>and they would go then and move the police there.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, the criminals can move someplace else, but they'd

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<v Speaker 1>follow them, and they just make life very difficult for

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<v Speaker 1>the for the criminals, and they had a huge impact

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<v Speaker 1>on the crime rate.

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<v Speaker 4>You know.

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<v Speaker 1>Unfortunately, the current leader and the mayor's race in DC,

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<v Speaker 1>the Democrat nominee, wants to continue undoing the work that

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<v Speaker 1>was done.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, And there was another program that he had that

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<v Speaker 3>I think it was a cop who once told me

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<v Speaker 3>it was called life in Jail a day at a time,

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<v Speaker 3>and that meant that they knew you were going to

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<v Speaker 3>get kicked out of jail for these minor quality of

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<v Speaker 3>life offenses like you know, public relieving, urination, that type

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<v Speaker 3>of thing. But nonetheless, they still arrested you smoking in

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<v Speaker 3>the subway. You'd get arrested, you'd spend the day in jail,

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<v Speaker 3>you'd get out, and then you'd do it again and

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<v Speaker 3>they'd arrest you again, or dealing marijuana on the street.

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<v Speaker 3>And an amazing thing happened. They stopped doing it after

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<v Speaker 3>a while. After spending you know, day after day after

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<v Speaker 3>day in jail.

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<v Speaker 4>They stopped doing it.

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<v Speaker 3>And the whole thing of disincentives, carrot and stick, it

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<v Speaker 3>made a huge difference. And the other thing, John that

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<v Speaker 3>happened during that whole Giuliani period economic expansion because people

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<v Speaker 3>felt safe to go outside even in poorer areas, and

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<v Speaker 3>more people working as a result of that economic expansion,

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<v Speaker 3>and less of them turning to crime.

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<v Speaker 4>I saw it with my own eyes.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Gerry me, you're exactly right. People don't appre You know,

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<v Speaker 1>obviously you have the direct victims of crime, but you

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<v Speaker 1>also have all these other indirect effects that are there.

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<v Speaker 1>So if I have more crime in an area, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>going to have businesses closed down. The ones that stay

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<v Speaker 1>in business are going to have higher costs. That hurts

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<v Speaker 1>so many different people. People who lost their would lose

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<v Speaker 1>their jobs. People who would have gone shopping in those

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<v Speaker 1>areas now have to go farther away to be able

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<v Speaker 1>to go and shop. People who own businesses lost money.

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<v Speaker 1>People who own home in those areas. What do you

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<v Speaker 1>think happened to the property values for those homes when

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<v Speaker 1>crime rates went up in those areas? You make those

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<v Speaker 1>people poor as a result of that, You make them

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<v Speaker 1>lose their jobs. So, you know, people are harmed in

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<v Speaker 1>many different ways from crime that I don't think is

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<v Speaker 1>properly appreciated.

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<v Speaker 3>It's disgusting that the Liberals won't give Juliani credit for

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<v Speaker 3>what he did there.

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<v Speaker 4>You know.

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<v Speaker 3>And Juliani, we didn't know it at the time because

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<v Speaker 3>the only thing he had ever run was the US

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<v Speaker 3>Attorney's office. But he turned out to be an incredibly

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<v Speaker 3>effective manager of the city's workforce. And look, he had

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<v Speaker 3>the Democrat council going against him, and yet he managed

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<v Speaker 3>to make deals and get things done.

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<v Speaker 4>Hopefully we'll see that again.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, we're going to cover tariffs real briefly, tariff seemed

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<v Speaker 3>to be working. They don't seem to be causing inflation,

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<v Speaker 3>at least according to the measurable numbers China. That deal

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<v Speaker 3>keeps getting put off ninety days, ninety days. I think

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<v Speaker 3>the reason why that isn't really publicized. China's having an

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<v Speaker 3>economic collapse, and the United States cannot be afford afford

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<v Speaker 3>to be seen as literally piling on and basically enhancing

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<v Speaker 3>that collapse, even though it might.

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<v Speaker 4>Be in our best interest for it to be occurring.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, So, yeah, I just had a piece just so

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<v Speaker 1>people know. I've been to I have a PhD in economics.

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<v Speaker 1>I've been an academic most of my life. I've had

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<v Speaker 1>positions at Stanford, University of Chicago, the Wharton Business School, Yale, UCLA,

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<v Speaker 1>and I've written about one hundred and twenty peer reviewed articles,

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<v Speaker 1>including issues like trades. I've some background in this area,

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<v Speaker 1>and what I didn't even appreciate until recently myself is that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the arguments against tariffs are that they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to distort trade, you know, hurt consumers, reduce production. All

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<v Speaker 1>those things are true, but that's true of all taxes.

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<v Speaker 1>Sales taxes reduce trade.

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<v Speaker 4>They're not lationary.

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<v Speaker 1>Taxes are deflation area. You know, income taxes make it

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<v Speaker 1>so that people don't work as much, they're not selling

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<v Speaker 1>their labor as much as they would have otherwise. It

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<v Speaker 1>reduces investment. Corporate taxes reduce output, reduce investment. So all

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<v Speaker 1>taxes are distortionary. And one thing that's important to understand

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<v Speaker 1>is that the size of the distortion increases at an

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<v Speaker 1>increasing rate with the level of taxes. So a twenty

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<v Speaker 1>percent tax produces more than twice the distortion that a

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<v Speaker 1>ten percent tax does. And so what you need to

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<v Speaker 1>do as an economists, because we're going to have taxes.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we may want to cut the federal budget,

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<v Speaker 1>but even if we succeed in cutting it a lot,

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<v Speaker 1>it's still going to be have to have taxes to

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<v Speaker 1>pay for things. You have a situation where you know

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<v Speaker 1>you're going to want to try to make it so

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<v Speaker 1>that the distortions are minimized. And so if I have

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<v Speaker 1>a tariff of two point five percent, that's there, and

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<v Speaker 1>the income taxes, when you add this average state tax

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<v Speaker 1>there goes up to forty three percent, and for corporate

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<v Speaker 1>taxes federal and stature, it's twenty seven percent on average.

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<v Speaker 1>You know you have much bigger distortions in those other areas,

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<v Speaker 1>and so you know it may make sense to increase

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<v Speaker 1>to some extent the sale the tariff at the same

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<v Speaker 1>time you're reducing those other taxes. And what Trump has done,

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<v Speaker 1>combined with the budget Reconciliation bill, kind of accomplishes that

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<v Speaker 1>to some extent. Now what the write about is, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know. Now, just as a quick comment on the

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<v Speaker 1>on the inflation, I guess I'm a Milton Friedman type

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<v Speaker 1>monetary theory type guy, and that is basically inflation is

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<v Speaker 1>a monetary phenomenon. If you're not changing the money supply

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<v Speaker 1>in velocity, then if some prices go up, other prices

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<v Speaker 1>are going to have to go down, so that on average,

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<v Speaker 1>the tolls amount spen it's going to be the same.

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<v Speaker 1>So I may have taxes on particular items that causes

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<v Speaker 1>those prices to go up a little bit, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>not inflationary. It's not going to change the overall price

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<v Speaker 1>level as long as you know, as long as the

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<v Speaker 1>money supply is not changing.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I couldn't agree with you more. And I am

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<v Speaker 3>a free trade person through and through, but free trade

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<v Speaker 3>has been weaponized against the United States post World War Two.

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<v Speaker 3>Maybe in the beginning initial phases there was reasons there

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<v Speaker 3>was no reason to allow China to weaponize trade.

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<v Speaker 4>That's what they've done. Tariffs are the great equalizer.

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<v Speaker 3>Prior to the creation of the Federal Reserve and the

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<v Speaker 3>income tax, the government financed all of its operations through

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<v Speaker 3>tariffs and excise taxes on alcohol and I guess some

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<v Speaker 3>on tobacco perhaps, But you know, part of the problem

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<v Speaker 3>with prohibition was it took away that revenue source from

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<v Speaker 3>the government and it became the justification for the income tax,

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<v Speaker 3>so you know you're looking at it. You know it's

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<v Speaker 3>a tax, yes, but like you said, all taxes are

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<v Speaker 3>deflationary because they they have the crowding out effect. They

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<v Speaker 3>take from those who produce and give to those who

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<v Speaker 3>don't produce. And that's the whole mess that we're in now. John,

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<v Speaker 3>where's the best place to find you these days and

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<v Speaker 3>connect with you on the web.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, our website is crimeresearch dot org. Crimeresearch dot org.

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<v Speaker 3>G all right, and the link is in the show

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<v Speaker 3>notes to this interview. If you got a question for

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<v Speaker 3>John myself, shoot me an email kl at Carrie dot com. John,

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<v Speaker 3>We will talk to you again soon. Thanks for that

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<v Speaker 3>great article. Be well, it's been great talking to you.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks very much, Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial

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<v Speaker 2>Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,

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00:23:15.480 --> 00:23:21.240
<v Speaker 2>go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now

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<v Speaker 2>more than ever,