WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>This is the in This League Fantasy Podcast network, in

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<v Speaker 1>This League Fantasy Baseball podcast online at in this League

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<v Speaker 1>dot com. Now here's your host, Bogman and the Welsh.

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<v Speaker 2>What is up? Friendos will welcome into the end This

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<v Speaker 2>League Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It is our primer series today.

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<v Speaker 2>It is the Corner Infield, the hot Corner third Base.

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<v Speaker 2>We're gonna be taking a look at all of the

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<v Speaker 2>third basemen, even some guys that are gonna like change

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<v Speaker 2>some position eligibility or fun in there. The total arc

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<v Speaker 2>of the position is an interesting conversation because I think

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<v Speaker 2>you're likely to compare it to first base. And as

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<v Speaker 2>I had explained to Bogman and I wrote hat tip

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<v Speaker 2>to the Fantasy Black Book, I did write the first

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<v Speaker 2>and the third base profiles, as well as doing a

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<v Speaker 2>handful of rookie stuff. You want to go check it out.

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<v Speaker 2>You can find it today over on Amazon and probably

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<v Speaker 2>other places. I'm not really sure where Joe All puts it,

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<v Speaker 2>but the Fantasy Black Book is available now and I

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<v Speaker 2>am in it. But as I also had to write

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<v Speaker 2>a little paragraph before, the profile is about just an

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<v Speaker 2>overview of the position. First base feels very top heavy,

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<v Speaker 2>and then it comes down pretty steeply, and then it

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<v Speaker 2>has some depth and then it falls off. Third base

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<v Speaker 2>is very middle heavy, where I think it is the

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<v Speaker 2>clearcut top guy is so above the others, and then

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<v Speaker 2>there is a line of probably twelve guys that it's

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<v Speaker 2>like you can argue the varying degrees of them. But

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<v Speaker 2>this position is meteor in the middle. But then it

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<v Speaker 2>kind of has a similar drop off at first base,

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<v Speaker 2>So where I think you need to maybe be a

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<v Speaker 2>little more cognizant of first base early third base, I

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<v Speaker 2>think you can get away with it assuming you like

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<v Speaker 2>some of the guys. We're going to talk about some

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<v Speaker 2>breakout candidates, maybe some underperformers and stuff like that. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>pretty fascinated with third base and I really don't have

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<v Speaker 2>any issue with it.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I don't know that I have some much issue

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<v Speaker 3>with it. I know the guys that I like and

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<v Speaker 3>I don't like, but I do see at third base

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<v Speaker 3>just a lot of things too dislike about these third basemens.

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<v Speaker 3>So we'll get into it a little deeper. But I

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<v Speaker 3>think trust ability maybe is not as high as it

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<v Speaker 3>is at third as as it is at first, But

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<v Speaker 3>the position overall is probably like you said, a little

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<v Speaker 3>bit better in the middle, a little meteor And like

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<v Speaker 3>you said, it is not top heavy like first base,

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<v Speaker 3>because there's one top.

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<v Speaker 2>And hopefully the whole process of the primer series we're

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<v Speaker 2>doing outside of ranks, of course, is just your understanding

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<v Speaker 2>across the positional stuff, because we can individually look at

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<v Speaker 2>a position and be like, oh, you know, this is deep,

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<v Speaker 2>this is not, this is but then it just becomes

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<v Speaker 2>that comes down to like draft strategy and who provides

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<v Speaker 2>you what, and that's something like That's where I think

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<v Speaker 2>third pase shines a little bit more. Wherein that like

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<v Speaker 2>you have to make a certain type of commitment to

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<v Speaker 2>be involved early on first base, I don't think you

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<v Speaker 2>have to do that base third base allows you to

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<v Speaker 2>do some other stuff. So understanding each positional thing obviously

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<v Speaker 2>devoid of one hundred percent of our physical rank here

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<v Speaker 2>and just talking about the position will hopefully help you

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<v Speaker 2>guys out. You guys want more in this league dot

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<v Speaker 2>com on the Patreon a lot going on this month.

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<v Speaker 2>I've got my final touches for midweek. It's an insane week.

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<v Speaker 2>I actually of having to post ranks on the back

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<v Speaker 2>end system for Fantasy Pro so we can get their

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<v Speaker 2>systems up, which is crazy, but that is also pushing

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<v Speaker 2>me a little bit closer to getting version one point

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<v Speaker 2>zero of my ranks. My Redraft ranks up, which should

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<v Speaker 2>be this week as well as the Redraft and Prospect.

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<v Speaker 2>I was hoping to get it earlier. Soccer didn't happen.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm doing a lot of football too, but ranks are

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<v Speaker 2>going to be up this week. We got the group

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<v Speaker 2>me rooms. Be a part of the community all the

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<v Speaker 2>stuff we've got into the new year. Get access to

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<v Speaker 2>all of my ranks from Dynasty, Prospect and Redraft Plus.

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<v Speaker 2>Got our Christmas special coming up in a couple weeks.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll give you more details soon. The Deck our Balls

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<v Speaker 2>Christmas Special where we have it just live. Only way

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<v Speaker 2>you can watch it is being a part of our

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<v Speaker 2>Patreon plus. We're gonna do some new stuff into the

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<v Speaker 2>new year video wise, so make sure you're checking that

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<v Speaker 2>out and know that you are supporting us in this league.

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<v Speaker 2>Dot com takes you to the Patreon in this league

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<v Speaker 2>dot Com. Thank you so much for doing so.

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<v Speaker 4>My friends.

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<v Speaker 2>We are going to talk about third base, but let

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<v Speaker 2>obviously talk about the big thing we're recording this winter

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<v Speaker 2>meetings are going on. We're gonna have a bunch of

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<v Speaker 2>other crazy stuff. To be honest with you, I know

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<v Speaker 2>we're gonna record this, and there's gonna be a couple

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<v Speaker 2>other massive things that are gonna happen, but we'll just

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<v Speaker 2>solely for a second half the Sodo Conversation. Wan Soto

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<v Speaker 2>signs record breaking deal with the New York Mets, spurns

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<v Speaker 2>the Yankees. I am eating up all of these stories

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<v Speaker 2>of like the mean security guard. They didn't give him

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<v Speaker 2>a suite and that made him not decide. I love

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<v Speaker 2>those things. Those are my favorite things on the planet.

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<v Speaker 2>I've did a video breakdown with Joey, who's a Mets fan,

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<v Speaker 2>a twenty minute video on YouTube if you want.

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<v Speaker 4>To see that. He was disgustingly happy. It was gross.

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<v Speaker 2>It was so gross it We were supposed to do

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<v Speaker 2>ten minutes and it was like fifteen minutes of him talking.

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<v Speaker 2>I think I talked the first five minutes, to be honest.

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<v Speaker 2>He just kept going on and on and.

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<v Speaker 1>On and on.

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<v Speaker 2>But it's an interesting spot, you know, like not to

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<v Speaker 2>belabor the whole thing, Like what what do you break

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<v Speaker 2>down with Juan Soto? He's incredible. The metrics when you

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<v Speaker 2>do the full breakdown, they speak for itself. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>high average, incredible, hard to hit. He he walks, he

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't strike out like.

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<v Speaker 4>He doesn't according to his expected stats he was low.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and he's gonna perform at an incredibly high level.

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<v Speaker 2>Then he's gonna go in this year and you're most

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<v Speaker 2>likely going to see him hitting two right behind Francisco Lidoor.

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<v Speaker 2>Everything is great, it helps the lineup. I will say

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<v Speaker 2>my two big points I'll throw out just real quick

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<v Speaker 2>to you.

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<v Speaker 4>One.

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<v Speaker 2>I thought it was interesting to pay attention to the

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<v Speaker 2>ballpark factor. I loosely say it, like like even Bubba

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<v Speaker 2>got on my case about the Willia Domas stuff because

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<v Speaker 2>I pointed out there's some pretty big like split issues

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<v Speaker 2>with Willia Domas. Not to say that he's gonna not

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<v Speaker 2>be good and worth it and stuff like that, but like, hey,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe he's not gonna have another rear high homers with

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<v Speaker 2>this bad ballpark.

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<v Speaker 4>It is. It is of note with New York.

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<v Speaker 2>After one Soto just hit was a second or career

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<v Speaker 2>high forty one home runs and stuff like that. You're

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<v Speaker 2>going to a ballpark that overall left handers has almost

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<v Speaker 2>the exact same as the New York Yankees. But from

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<v Speaker 2>a home run perspective, Yankees have the third highest home

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<v Speaker 2>run ballpark factor to the left handed hitters, the Mets

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<v Speaker 2>sixth lowest in baseball. So it's pretty down there as

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<v Speaker 2>far as the home run expectancy. I don't think that

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<v Speaker 2>changes a lot. Maybe some homers turned into doubles. He's incredible,

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<v Speaker 2>but maybe the top comes off a little bit. But

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<v Speaker 2>you know, you're expect And they also don't run more

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<v Speaker 2>that they have a higher completion percentage of stolen bases,

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<v Speaker 2>but they just don't run a whole bunch bunch more so,

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<v Speaker 2>like that's going to be some big uptick.

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<v Speaker 4>So it's not the throw a success rate mister football here, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>success or whatever.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's my I'll just stop there for a second,

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<v Speaker 2>give you my either take in a second again. I

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<v Speaker 2>just lightly put it out there as something to understand

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<v Speaker 2>about the ballpark. But at the end of the day,

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<v Speaker 2>like he will create better left handed ballpark factors because

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<v Speaker 2>of who he is in general, gets the ball in

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<v Speaker 2>the air, hits it hard. It's nothing to take away

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<v Speaker 2>from I expect him to be a high three hundred

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<v Speaker 2>thirty thirty five homer guy. One hundred hundred. I expect

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<v Speaker 2>him to be a first runner. I have nothing against that.

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<v Speaker 2>But it's not like he went in.

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<v Speaker 4>With the Rockies or the right Yeah exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So, ballpark factors you have to take consider, lineup

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<v Speaker 3>factors you have to consider, the pressure of living up

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<v Speaker 3>to the biggest contract in sports history is something that

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<v Speaker 3>you would have to consider as well. Not that it's

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<v Speaker 3>you know, calculable for your drafting or anything, but these

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<v Speaker 3>are all factors in this that that add up. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, I think you're right. I think for the

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<v Speaker 3>most part, what does that change? Maybe three homers, they doubles.

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<v Speaker 3>That's why, like the bottom line.

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<v Speaker 2>I hate saying it because if you say anything about that,

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<v Speaker 2>be like, oh you do know, no, Like like if

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<v Speaker 2>I say a ten percent reduction in Adamis's power fifteen,

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<v Speaker 2>that doesn't mean he's not good or he could beat expectations.

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<v Speaker 2>It's just something to note. Same thing would happen with

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<v Speaker 2>the Mets, just pointing out there's a little less wiggle room.

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<v Speaker 2>And but like he's got great things in front of you.

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<v Speaker 2>Got I love Lindor hitting in front of him. I

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<v Speaker 2>think that if that's going to continue, I think that's

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<v Speaker 2>a great spot. Now this comes to my second portion.

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<v Speaker 2>There are two beneficiaries. I say this in the video

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<v Speaker 2>Mark Vientos, who are going to talk about today, This

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<v Speaker 2>is phenomenal for him. If if he hits three Harbi

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<v Speaker 2>opportunities through the wazoo, you're gonna have teams not wanting

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<v Speaker 2>to pitch to him, to Soto to get to Vento's.

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<v Speaker 2>Vento's put up insane hard hit numbers. His problem is

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<v Speaker 2>he's got to become a little bit more than just

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<v Speaker 2>the fastball hitter, and he's got to cut the strikeouts down.

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<v Speaker 2>Or they could go and resign Alonso or Walker, Christian

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<v Speaker 2>Walker like that. They could hit three and Vento's as four,

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<v Speaker 2>it's still phenomenal. So a young guy like Vientos, where

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<v Speaker 2>his value is sitting kind of seems like a sneaky spot.

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<v Speaker 2>And also I would throw out there's a slight opportunity

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<v Speaker 2>that maybe they hit Soto three and then they put

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<v Speaker 2>like a I don't throw like a Jeff McNeal or

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<v Speaker 2>something like that at two, and then all of a

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<v Speaker 2>sudden that person would benefit. The other one is the

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<v Speaker 2>loss of Soto to New York all but as sures

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<v Speaker 2>maybe it was always there. People would argue with me

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<v Speaker 2>about that that's fine but at all but as sure

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<v Speaker 2>as there's one less roadblock for Jason Dimingez to be

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<v Speaker 2>starting for the full year. And I think Jason Dimingez

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<v Speaker 2>is a really good value right now. I think Vientos

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<v Speaker 2>is a good value. My early ranks compared to NFBC bogs,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm like thirty spots higher. And I know this is

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<v Speaker 2>not a rank show, but I'm like thirty spots higher

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<v Speaker 2>than Vento's. With Vents then in like NFBC, and I

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<v Speaker 2>will be the same with Jason Dimingo. So I think

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<v Speaker 2>those were two just out right off the gate beneficiaries

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<v Speaker 2>to the Wan Soto thing, one on his team and

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<v Speaker 2>one place that he left.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and these this is the wake of the first

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<v Speaker 3>really huge piece, uh to move. I mean, Blake Snell,

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<v Speaker 3>Willie domis also signing. But now the dominoes, like you said,

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<v Speaker 3>the dominoes are gonna start to fall. We're gonna get

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<v Speaker 3>the winter meetings, trades are gonna start happening too. We're

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<v Speaker 3>gonna see a lot of stuff open up and change.

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<v Speaker 3>And uh, I can tell you this after spending seven

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<v Speaker 3>hundred and sixty five million dollars. The Mets are definitely

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<v Speaker 3>not done. They're gonna be adding more. So we'll see

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<v Speaker 3>if Alonzo comes back or not. Uh, there's gonna be

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of moving and shaking here still, so lots

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<v Speaker 3>to go through still.

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<v Speaker 4>In the offseason.

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<v Speaker 3>But uh yeah, Juan Soto the big the biggest domino

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<v Speaker 3>to fall, the biggest contract in UH sports history. Kind

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<v Speaker 3>of crazy, but it makes sense. I was surprised that

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<v Speaker 3>he got more money than Otani, but he also got

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<v Speaker 3>fifteen years, which is.

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<v Speaker 2>His younger fifteen years. There's lots of elements too. I

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<v Speaker 2>think the whole thing is fat.

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<v Speaker 3>I also like they can also opt out in like

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<v Speaker 3>twenty nine or whatever it is.

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<v Speaker 2>It's actually really a five year deal because he can

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<v Speaker 2>be out to your point, he can opt out at

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<v Speaker 2>thirty one years old, and but he would be leaving

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<v Speaker 2>about five hundred million and ten years on the table.

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<v Speaker 2>So if he's determined and he's amazing, and he determines that,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, because of inflation in five years, that you know,

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<v Speaker 2>he could go and sign a ten year, seven hundred

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<v Speaker 2>million dollar deal. At that point he's gaining there. But

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<v Speaker 2>there's the option. I think he essentially either has to

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<v Speaker 2>do one of two things, opt out, or the Mets

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<v Speaker 2>have to then keep him at like five million more

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<v Speaker 2>annually and there's zero deferred money, so there's like luxury tap.

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<v Speaker 2>It's really fascinating, and it came to the point of,

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<v Speaker 2>like Jeff Passon also saying, listen, seems like the Yankees

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<v Speaker 2>might have benefited. To be honest with you, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>like Wan Soto's great. Everybody across the board agrees this

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<v Speaker 2>is an egregious overpay. But at the same time, it's

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<v Speaker 2>like the Mets got their guy and he's a phenomenal player,

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<v Speaker 2>Like you can't you can't be too negative about it.

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<v Speaker 2>And I don't even care to harp on it. They

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<v Speaker 2>got their guy, but it was they had to overpay

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<v Speaker 2>to do it. And that's like playing an auction leagues.

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<v Speaker 2>You know. I'm sick to my stomach every time I'm

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<v Speaker 2>determined to get a player and people are pressing me

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<v Speaker 2>and then and I always do it, and I'm the dude,

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<v Speaker 2>I pay like four dollars more, and I'm like, I

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<v Speaker 2>hate doing it. That was like paying twenty dollars more,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, than a standard auction high price or something

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<v Speaker 2>like that. But we'll see how everybody reacts. We'll probably

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<v Speaker 2>have a overarching We may even do like a short

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<v Speaker 2>here on itl of a Winter Meetings breakdown if we

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<v Speaker 2>get some of the big there's a lot of trades

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<v Speaker 2>that there's.

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<v Speaker 4>A lot of trades and big, big moves. Yeah, so

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<v Speaker 4>if you're.

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<v Speaker 2>Listening into the future, know that there might be an

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<v Speaker 2>episode where we do more of an extensive breakdown. But

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<v Speaker 2>just wanted to mention it's a huge one and we'll

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<v Speaker 2>be talking about it next week in the outfield primer

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<v Speaker 2>for one SODO with the New York Mets. But this

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<v Speaker 2>is third base. We do have Mark Viento's and we

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<v Speaker 2>got a whole lot more. So don't go anywhere strap in.

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<v Speaker 2>We're gonna be talking just about the unique things and

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<v Speaker 2>maybe some pieces that will help you in your own

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<v Speaker 2>personal rankings of the corner infield Hotspot for twenty twenty five.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, in this league, look at us, who would have

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<v Speaker 1>thought not made, not made?

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<v Speaker 3>Who had thought not made, not.

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<v Speaker 4>May thought third base.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's start with Jose Ramirez. I want to do myself

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit of a better job and not get

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<v Speaker 2>too harpened up at the top end. I think it

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<v Speaker 2>is a good idea that we were doing how we're going,

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<v Speaker 2>but it does take a while to get us to fifteen. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>the reason I say that is, like, you know, they

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<v Speaker 2>need to spend ten minutes on Bobby Wit No, probably not.

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<v Speaker 2>It's fun to talk about, and the same thing would

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<v Speaker 2>kind of align. Do we need to spend ten fifteen

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<v Speaker 2>minutes on Jose Ramirez?

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<v Speaker 4>Probably not.

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<v Speaker 2>He fell short of a forty forty season also because

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<v Speaker 2>he got short at a game. Thirty nine homers, forty

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<v Speaker 2>one stolen bases to seventy nine batting average. Unreal. Really,

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<v Speaker 2>he did all of this too, by the way, without

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<v Speaker 2>really making big, concerted efforts to his game. You saw

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<v Speaker 2>his max ev go on up to a career high

296
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<v Speaker 2>one sixteen. Barrel percentage went up compared to last year,

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<v Speaker 2>but he's had bigger career years. Launch angle was a like,

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<v Speaker 2>what is it a degree and a half higher than

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<v Speaker 2>the previous year, but he's had higher hard hit percentage

300
00:14:17.639 --> 00:14:20.399
<v Speaker 2>was down from the previous year, and his expected batting

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<v Speaker 2>average is forty points down from the previous year. So

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<v Speaker 2>I'm just pointing out that, like he tapped into this

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<v Speaker 2>completely new phase of his game that I still maybe

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<v Speaker 2>it's totally overplayed Bogs. I still hold that, like that

305
00:14:34.559 --> 00:14:37.039
<v Speaker 2>right field when they opened up whatever they did, that

306
00:14:37.120 --> 00:14:41.159
<v Speaker 2>dimensional opening up the wall and it created this tunnel

307
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<v Speaker 2>like you saw left handed hitters be able to smash

308
00:14:44.960 --> 00:14:48.399
<v Speaker 2>really at an unreal quip like Stephen Kwan did, and

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00:14:49.159 --> 00:14:52.799
<v Speaker 2>he hit twenty five homers this year as a right

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<v Speaker 2>handed hitter, and I'm looking twenty twenty three he hit twelve.

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<v Speaker 2>He did hit twenty three in twenty twenty two, twenty five,

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<v Speaker 2>So I mean that's not uncommon.

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<v Speaker 4>But it really did help throw all this out. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>what is it worth?

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<v Speaker 2>I guess the only thing at the end of the

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<v Speaker 2>day in talking about Rosi Ramirez is is it repeatable

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<v Speaker 2>into the next year or is there something that stands

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<v Speaker 2>out as a concern.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean I think there are cracks in the

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<v Speaker 3>facade here for sure. Like you mentioned his XBA being

321
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<v Speaker 3>forty points lower, it was twenty points lower than his

322
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<v Speaker 3>batting average two seventy nine is what he hit. Two

323
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<v Speaker 3>fifty nine was His XBA also had massive batting average

324
00:15:32.679 --> 00:15:36.000
<v Speaker 3>splits between lefties and rightings. He had three forty eight

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<v Speaker 3>vers lefties as a righty and then two point fifty

326
00:15:38.919 --> 00:15:43.440
<v Speaker 3>four versus righties as a lefty, So, uh, you know,

327
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<v Speaker 3>there there are some cracks there, but I mean they're

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<v Speaker 3>not big enough to rock the foundation. I think is

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<v Speaker 3>the point that we want to make here is that

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<v Speaker 3>there are things that say, maybe he shouldn't be a

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<v Speaker 3>top five pick, but I think that the fact that

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<v Speaker 3>he is so much better than every other third baseman

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<v Speaker 3>he gives you a distinct advantage at the position right

334
00:16:08.399 --> 00:16:11.799
<v Speaker 3>and the fact that you know, it's not like his

335
00:16:12.000 --> 00:16:15.200
<v Speaker 3>XBA was sixty points higher or something ridiculous. He wasn't

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<v Speaker 3>like a league leader. He was a position leader. You

337
00:16:17.840 --> 00:16:22.000
<v Speaker 3>had the second highest, you know, difference in his XBA

338
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<v Speaker 3>in terms of guys that were negative. Jose Miranda the

339
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<v Speaker 3>only one that was worse than him to eighty four

340
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<v Speaker 3>batting average two fifty nine expected. But Vento's also sixty

341
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<v Speaker 3>six to forty six, so someone matched him. But the

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<v Speaker 3>difference is just so big, Like even if he lost

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<v Speaker 3>the little team on batting average, he's still going to

344
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<v Speaker 3>give you so many more RBI and runs than most

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<v Speaker 3>other third basemen that he's worth. Uh, you know, an

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<v Speaker 3>early first round pick, top five. Maybe you want to

347
00:16:51.399 --> 00:16:54.840
<v Speaker 3>raise an eyebrow out. That's fine, but he's definitely a

348
00:16:54.879 --> 00:16:56.039
<v Speaker 3>mid tier first rounder.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>The only other stuff i'd throw out in noticing he

351
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<v Speaker 2>pulled the more and I think that definitely speaks to

352
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<v Speaker 2>an understanding of maybe some of the new dimensional things

353
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<v Speaker 2>he was able to take advantage of. He did that

354
00:17:07.359 --> 00:17:10.759
<v Speaker 2>while losing some zone contact, if that means anything. His

355
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<v Speaker 2>chase rate was a career high thirty one point seven percent,

356
00:17:13.759 --> 00:17:16.599
<v Speaker 2>so he's definitely selling out for power, and I think

357
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<v Speaker 2>that's key, and I don't say that in a negative way,

358
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<v Speaker 2>but that's key when understanding two in twenty twenty three.

359
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<v Speaker 2>Almost I'm looking at this real quick to give you okay,

360
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<v Speaker 2>I have it every single pitch type except cutters and sweepers,

361
00:17:33.119 --> 00:17:36.240
<v Speaker 2>which those two pitches amount to only ten percent of

362
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<v Speaker 2>what he saw. So ninety percent of pitch types in

363
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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty three he underperformed. When I say under performed,

364
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<v Speaker 2>forcing fastballs, which you saw the most, he hit two

365
00:17:45.400 --> 00:17:49.440
<v Speaker 2>eighty XBA of three to eleven sliders two fourteen XBA

366
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<v Speaker 2>of two eighty seven. He underperformed against those pitch types.

367
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<v Speaker 2>So that is something that tells us like, hey, you

368
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<v Speaker 2>know you're especially if you're underperforming at big degrees. This

369
00:17:58.160 --> 00:18:00.839
<v Speaker 2>is a positive regressional type of thing. Maybe this guy

370
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<v Speaker 2>can fix. Well, this year you saw that happen. You saw,

371
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<v Speaker 2>like so sliders, he hit two forty this year. It

372
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<v Speaker 2>wasn't the XBA, but he hit better fastballs. He hit

373
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<v Speaker 2>three ten. It was three eleven the year before. So

374
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<v Speaker 2>you saw those expected numbers come back up, but the

375
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<v Speaker 2>expected numbers this year down, So they're coming back down.

376
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<v Speaker 2>So like now you see XBA of two seventy two

377
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<v Speaker 2>against fastballs, which is more like twenty twenty three slider XBA,

378
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<v Speaker 2>almost the exact same year before. So there's this weird,

379
00:18:28.640 --> 00:18:33.720
<v Speaker 2>interesting dichotomy of like, you know, him following his expected

380
00:18:33.799 --> 00:18:36.319
<v Speaker 2>numbers year over year, and I think maybe some of

381
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<v Speaker 2>those are representative that he lost some hard hit. Actually

382
00:18:40.279 --> 00:18:44.079
<v Speaker 2>his top three pitch types he hit softer, I guess.

383
00:18:44.200 --> 00:18:46.640
<v Speaker 3>I mean just looking at his hard hit at his

384
00:18:46.680 --> 00:18:49.359
<v Speaker 3>hard hit percentage on stack cast, well she was, you know,

385
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<v Speaker 3>still high, but ninth among third basemen in Barrel's for

386
00:18:54.119 --> 00:18:58.640
<v Speaker 3>plate appearance and in terms of hard hit percentage he was.

387
00:19:00.039 --> 00:19:02.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah he's low, Yeah, you know, he's low. But this

388
00:19:02.519 --> 00:19:05.079
<v Speaker 2>is actually more what I'm saying. He hit forty point

389
00:19:05.160 --> 00:19:08.559
<v Speaker 2>four the year prior, a hard hit percentage thirty nine

390
00:19:08.559 --> 00:19:09.119
<v Speaker 2>point seven.

391
00:19:09.279 --> 00:19:11.359
<v Speaker 4>That's not a dramatic drop. It's like it goes under forty.

392
00:19:11.400 --> 00:19:12.039
<v Speaker 4>It's not dramatic.

393
00:19:12.359 --> 00:19:16.640
<v Speaker 2>But when you dig deeper, the top three pitch types

394
00:19:16.680 --> 00:19:21.559
<v Speaker 2>against he lost four percent against forcing fastballs, He lost

395
00:19:21.759 --> 00:19:26.720
<v Speaker 2>five percent against changeups, and sliders he lost four percent.

396
00:19:26.799 --> 00:19:30.880
<v Speaker 2>So those equate to almost sixty percent of the pitch types.

397
00:19:30.960 --> 00:19:34.440
<v Speaker 2>He lost significant hard hit rates against those, And again

398
00:19:34.519 --> 00:19:36.559
<v Speaker 2>he was like pulling the ball and getting the ball

399
00:19:36.559 --> 00:19:38.319
<v Speaker 2>in the air a little bit more. I think he

400
00:19:38.440 --> 00:19:40.799
<v Speaker 2>just kind of swims through the type of hitter that

401
00:19:40.880 --> 00:19:41.279
<v Speaker 2>he is.

402
00:19:41.480 --> 00:19:42.440
<v Speaker 4>I love him.

403
00:19:42.680 --> 00:19:46.839
<v Speaker 2>His his projections are lower though it's around two eighty

404
00:19:47.359 --> 00:19:49.519
<v Speaker 2>and it's around and the homers come down, and so

405
00:19:49.599 --> 00:19:52.160
<v Speaker 2>it's like thirty thirty, Like I think to eighty thirty

406
00:19:52.240 --> 00:19:56.480
<v Speaker 2>thirty is the baseline for Jose Ramirez, and he wavers

407
00:19:56.640 --> 00:19:59.039
<v Speaker 2>between the type of hitter that he can be. And

408
00:19:59.039 --> 00:20:00.799
<v Speaker 2>that's what I like about him so much. So that's

409
00:20:00.839 --> 00:20:03.839
<v Speaker 2>there's not meant to be this negative cold water thrown on.

410
00:20:03.920 --> 00:20:06.559
<v Speaker 2>It's just when you look at the profile, you can

411
00:20:06.599 --> 00:20:08.559
<v Speaker 2>see him playing up and down to some of this

412
00:20:08.720 --> 00:20:10.960
<v Speaker 2>expected stuff, and I think that is based on the

413
00:20:11.039 --> 00:20:13.400
<v Speaker 2>type of hitter that he wants to be in a

414
00:20:13.440 --> 00:20:14.000
<v Speaker 2>given time.

415
00:20:14.400 --> 00:20:18.079
<v Speaker 3>So his projection is two seventy nine, as you mentioned right,

416
00:20:18.160 --> 00:20:20.920
<v Speaker 3>hovering out on top of two eighty. His career is

417
00:20:20.960 --> 00:20:24.039
<v Speaker 3>two seventy nine, but his XBA last year was two

418
00:20:24.119 --> 00:20:28.200
<v Speaker 3>fifty nine. If I set his batting average at two

419
00:20:28.279 --> 00:20:31.319
<v Speaker 3>seventy five, are you going higher or lower than that?

420
00:20:31.559 --> 00:20:33.920
<v Speaker 4>Oh? I mean, I might like, I think that's right.

421
00:20:34.039 --> 00:20:35.440
<v Speaker 4>I think that's like right about.

422
00:20:35.279 --> 00:20:37.119
<v Speaker 3>And that's and that's a fair answer. But you know,

423
00:20:37.359 --> 00:20:39.359
<v Speaker 3>gunder your head, are you going over or under?

424
00:20:40.839 --> 00:20:43.200
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I will say he's hit over that three

425
00:20:43.279 --> 00:20:45.480
<v Speaker 2>straight years to eighty two, eighty two, and two seventy nine,

426
00:20:45.480 --> 00:20:47.319
<v Speaker 2>So I guess I would I mean, gun to my head,

427
00:20:47.480 --> 00:20:49.920
<v Speaker 2>Oh man, I probably.

428
00:20:49.680 --> 00:20:51.480
<v Speaker 4>Would go over. I guess. Okay, that's fine.

429
00:20:51.640 --> 00:20:54.359
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's I think that's the question, and I think

430
00:20:54.359 --> 00:20:57.680
<v Speaker 3>that's the right answer, and that is why he's being drafted.

431
00:20:57.680 --> 00:21:00.559
<v Speaker 3>So is you know, we we can you can write

432
00:21:00.599 --> 00:21:03.039
<v Speaker 3>the narrative to go negative on almost any player, but

433
00:21:03.559 --> 00:21:06.440
<v Speaker 3>thirty thirty with one hundred, one hundred as your baseline,

434
00:21:06.839 --> 00:21:09.319
<v Speaker 3>you know, that's a good place to start.

435
00:21:09.440 --> 00:21:11.839
<v Speaker 4>And that's where Jose Ramirez kind of comes in.

436
00:21:12.240 --> 00:21:14.759
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and I actually wish I could see like individual

437
00:21:14.799 --> 00:21:17.319
<v Speaker 2>like even launch angles on certain pitches, because it's like

438
00:21:17.400 --> 00:21:19.880
<v Speaker 2>the guy pulled more, he chased a bit more, he

439
00:21:19.960 --> 00:21:23.839
<v Speaker 2>put more barrels. Technically that is correct, eight point six

440
00:21:23.880 --> 00:21:26.079
<v Speaker 2>barrel rate to seven the previous year. So he put

441
00:21:26.119 --> 00:21:28.359
<v Speaker 2>more barrels, chased a bit more, pulled the ball a

442
00:21:28.400 --> 00:21:31.200
<v Speaker 2>little bit more, lost some hard hit, but still let

443
00:21:31.200 --> 00:21:31.720
<v Speaker 2>balls fly.

444
00:21:31.839 --> 00:21:32.839
<v Speaker 4>And maybe he was.

445
00:21:32.799 --> 00:21:35.400
<v Speaker 2>Held up by that ballpark factor. Gotta love Hoser Ramirez,

446
00:21:35.440 --> 00:21:38.160
<v Speaker 2>and that's like the main key here. He's a key cog,

447
00:21:38.519 --> 00:21:42.279
<v Speaker 2>top five, top seven, something like that. I actually, even

448
00:21:42.640 --> 00:21:44.519
<v Speaker 2>though I talk about some of those negatives, I actually

449
00:21:44.519 --> 00:21:46.640
<v Speaker 2>think that speaks very well to who he is. And

450
00:21:46.880 --> 00:21:48.720
<v Speaker 2>I really do feel like this is just a guy

451
00:21:48.720 --> 00:21:51.680
<v Speaker 2>who adjusts his game as it goes on, and the

452
00:21:51.720 --> 00:21:55.240
<v Speaker 2>ballpark even helps a tiny bit more. Jazz Chisholm is

453
00:21:55.319 --> 00:21:59.599
<v Speaker 2>going to come in at number three, number two or

454
00:21:59.759 --> 00:22:03.240
<v Speaker 2>as who is it? John Hayman calls him Chas Jism.

455
00:22:04.440 --> 00:22:08.160
<v Speaker 4>Did you hear that? Yeah, Jazz Chaz.

456
00:22:07.960 --> 00:22:12.319
<v Speaker 2>Jism is our new play. That that's our new Aaron Arson,

457
00:22:12.440 --> 00:22:18.039
<v Speaker 2>Judge Arson Judge and Chas Jism Chaz Chisholm comes in

458
00:22:18.079 --> 00:22:20.839
<v Speaker 2>here after playing third, bit what was I don't remember

459
00:22:20.880 --> 00:22:23.880
<v Speaker 2>his actual games played at third, because he should qualify

460
00:22:23.920 --> 00:22:25.599
<v Speaker 2>I think everywhere because he was going to play that

461
00:22:25.640 --> 00:22:29.039
<v Speaker 2>with the Yankees. But hit two fifty six. That is

462
00:22:29.079 --> 00:22:31.240
<v Speaker 2>three straight years of hitting at least two fifty. It's

463
00:22:31.240 --> 00:22:32.359
<v Speaker 2>actually between.

464
00:22:32.000 --> 00:22:34.400
<v Speaker 4>Two fifty and two fifty six, three straight years.

465
00:22:34.200 --> 00:22:37.759
<v Speaker 2>Twenty four homers, forty stolen bases for that team that

466
00:22:37.799 --> 00:22:40.319
<v Speaker 2>doesn't steal a whole bunch. He really did it. He

467
00:22:40.440 --> 00:22:44.119
<v Speaker 2>dropped a barrel percentage did fall this year. His expected

468
00:22:44.160 --> 00:22:46.920
<v Speaker 2>batting average higher than the year before, but it still

469
00:22:46.920 --> 00:22:50.440
<v Speaker 2>sits around two forty. Cut his strikeout percentage by quite

470
00:22:50.480 --> 00:22:52.079
<v Speaker 2>a bit, which is nice. And he got the ball

471
00:22:52.119 --> 00:22:55.440
<v Speaker 2>in the air we talk about I mentioned, you know,

472
00:22:55.480 --> 00:22:58.039
<v Speaker 2>it's a great ballpark for left handed hitters. It's one

473
00:22:58.039 --> 00:23:00.440
<v Speaker 2>of the better from a home run perspective. So that

474
00:23:00.559 --> 00:23:02.559
<v Speaker 2>really speaks well to Jazz in the future.

475
00:23:03.119 --> 00:23:05.640
<v Speaker 4>And everything was better in New York as well.

476
00:23:05.759 --> 00:23:08.039
<v Speaker 3>I mean, if you go and just look at it,

477
00:23:08.079 --> 00:23:12.160
<v Speaker 3>because Baseball Reference has it split by team. His average

478
00:23:12.160 --> 00:23:14.759
<v Speaker 3>went from two forty nine to two seventy three. He

479
00:23:14.880 --> 00:23:18.960
<v Speaker 3>hit thirteen homers for the Marlins, eleven for the Yankees,

480
00:23:19.000 --> 00:23:20.880
<v Speaker 3>and that is in one hundred and one games and

481
00:23:20.920 --> 00:23:25.599
<v Speaker 3>four hundred and thirty played appearances for the Marlins and

482
00:23:25.640 --> 00:23:29.160
<v Speaker 3>then forty six games and one hundred and ninety one

483
00:23:29.240 --> 00:23:33.359
<v Speaker 3>played appearances too, fewer homers. He stole twenty two bases

484
00:23:33.839 --> 00:23:36.359
<v Speaker 3>with the Marlins over one hundred and one games, eighteen

485
00:23:36.960 --> 00:23:41.279
<v Speaker 3>with the Yankees over forty six. Everything for him was

486
00:23:41.400 --> 00:23:43.319
<v Speaker 3>so much better with the Yankees. And now we get

487
00:23:43.359 --> 00:23:47.039
<v Speaker 3>him there for a full season. Obviously, the thing with

488
00:23:47.160 --> 00:23:49.279
<v Speaker 3>Jazz is is he going to play a full season?

489
00:23:49.279 --> 00:23:51.000
<v Speaker 3>Which one hundred and forty seven games this year is

490
00:23:51.039 --> 00:23:54.400
<v Speaker 3>a ton, especially since that's the most because he's ever

491
00:23:54.440 --> 00:23:57.559
<v Speaker 3>had in his career. So yeah, so hopefully we get

492
00:23:57.599 --> 00:23:58.880
<v Speaker 3>a lot more of that as well.

493
00:23:59.319 --> 00:24:00.599
<v Speaker 4>It's as good as a hits with him.

494
00:24:00.759 --> 00:24:03.839
<v Speaker 2>He hit pretty well against both sides of the plate too. Uh.

495
00:24:03.960 --> 00:24:06.599
<v Speaker 2>The year prior he'd only hit one seventy two against

496
00:24:06.680 --> 00:24:10.599
<v Speaker 2>lefties one forty three in twenty twenty two, and then

497
00:24:10.640 --> 00:24:13.759
<v Speaker 2>he had two seventy two seventy two thirty seven that

498
00:24:13.839 --> 00:24:15.680
<v Speaker 2>year prior hitting two.

499
00:24:15.559 --> 00:24:17.359
<v Speaker 4>Forty I actually, look, is that a career high?

500
00:24:17.759 --> 00:24:18.480
<v Speaker 2>That is?

501
00:24:19.720 --> 00:24:20.519
<v Speaker 4>Why? Is? Yeah?

502
00:24:20.519 --> 00:24:24.319
<v Speaker 2>That is a well hold on twenty twenty. No, in

503
00:24:24.359 --> 00:24:26.839
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty, well, it was fourteen at bats. We're going

504
00:24:26.920 --> 00:24:27.680
<v Speaker 2>to call that a full.

505
00:24:27.480 --> 00:24:28.400
<v Speaker 4>Season career high.

506
00:24:28.640 --> 00:24:31.680
<v Speaker 2>Hitting two forty nine against lefties this past year, and

507
00:24:31.799 --> 00:24:33.640
<v Speaker 2>like you said, he was better in the post All

508
00:24:33.680 --> 00:24:37.440
<v Speaker 2>Star break because of the Yankees in general. Uh, it

509
00:24:37.480 --> 00:24:39.319
<v Speaker 2>looked like he had a four percent raise in his

510
00:24:39.400 --> 00:24:42.559
<v Speaker 2>contact percentage, which was good. It looked like, you know,

511
00:24:42.599 --> 00:24:44.519
<v Speaker 2>I don't know if there was something in there, maybe

512
00:24:44.880 --> 00:24:47.799
<v Speaker 2>takin Azota or talking to Judge that he became like

513
00:24:48.039 --> 00:24:50.240
<v Speaker 2>a little bit more of a patient.

514
00:24:50.319 --> 00:24:52.680
<v Speaker 4>Hit park factors, lineup factors.

515
00:24:52.759 --> 00:24:55.359
<v Speaker 2>I mean, yeah, Well cut a strike up percentage by

516
00:24:55.400 --> 00:24:57.279
<v Speaker 2>six percent. He had a thirty percent the year prior,

517
00:24:57.319 --> 00:25:00.319
<v Speaker 2>went down to twenty four percent. So there's se to

518
00:25:00.359 --> 00:25:03.440
<v Speaker 2>speak to something that, like some of the pitches that

519
00:25:03.839 --> 00:25:05.880
<v Speaker 2>you know were getting him. But he hit one thirty

520
00:25:05.880 --> 00:25:10.160
<v Speaker 2>two against sliders with a forty one percent strikeout percentage

521
00:25:10.160 --> 00:25:14.599
<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty three. This year, everybody threw him sliders.

522
00:25:15.119 --> 00:25:17.400
<v Speaker 2>He cut a strikeout percent it's still bad thirty four percent,

523
00:25:17.440 --> 00:25:19.160
<v Speaker 2>but he hit two thirty five, you know, so like

524
00:25:19.240 --> 00:25:21.640
<v Speaker 2>he he did better and he hit them harder, and

525
00:25:21.680 --> 00:25:24.799
<v Speaker 2>I think he set himself up where it's funny. He

526
00:25:24.880 --> 00:25:27.799
<v Speaker 2>was only ten percent of sliders in twenty twenty three,

527
00:25:27.880 --> 00:25:30.960
<v Speaker 2>so clearly, you know, pitching coaches got the book on

528
00:25:31.039 --> 00:25:32.680
<v Speaker 2>him and they said we're throwing him sliders. It went

529
00:25:32.720 --> 00:25:36.039
<v Speaker 2>up five percent and he kind of adjusted well to it,

530
00:25:36.519 --> 00:25:37.559
<v Speaker 2>and that all.

531
00:25:37.720 --> 00:25:41.079
<v Speaker 3>Percentage just looking at it, well, strike up percentage dipped

532
00:25:41.279 --> 00:25:45.759
<v Speaker 3>one percent one point three percent moving from Miami to

533
00:25:45.960 --> 00:25:50.880
<v Speaker 3>New York, but the backmit was actually lower, but the

534
00:25:51.000 --> 00:25:54.559
<v Speaker 3>ISO was a big difference. One p fifty eight in Miami,

535
00:25:54.640 --> 00:25:57.160
<v Speaker 3>did two twenty seven with the Yankees.

536
00:25:58.039 --> 00:25:58.480
<v Speaker 4>I like it.

537
00:25:58.519 --> 00:25:59.799
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I think there's a lot to like a

538
00:26:00.559 --> 00:26:03.480
<v Speaker 2>jazz here. You know, there's nothing crazy in the swing.

539
00:26:03.680 --> 00:26:05.880
<v Speaker 2>It's pretty league average actually, to be honest with you.

540
00:26:06.000 --> 00:26:08.200
<v Speaker 2>Length it's like a little bit faster, it's a little

541
00:26:08.200 --> 00:26:11.359
<v Speaker 2>bit longer. The contact rates as far as like squared

542
00:26:11.440 --> 00:26:12.960
<v Speaker 2>up and blast, they're about the same.

543
00:26:13.079 --> 00:26:17.000
<v Speaker 4>Like he's this like solid dude, who.

544
00:26:17.319 --> 00:26:18.599
<v Speaker 2>You know, the only thing I did in check Now

545
00:26:18.640 --> 00:26:20.720
<v Speaker 2>I want to look how might I stolen bases did

546
00:26:20.759 --> 00:26:23.200
<v Speaker 2>he have with the Yankees? He had. He had seventeen

547
00:26:23.240 --> 00:26:26.319
<v Speaker 2>stolen bases with the Yankees, which is pretty impressive too

548
00:26:26.359 --> 00:26:27.960
<v Speaker 2>because that team didn't run. They just kind of let

549
00:26:28.039 --> 00:26:29.759
<v Speaker 2>him go. He had twelve in September.

550
00:26:30.200 --> 00:26:31.680
<v Speaker 4>What are you do? You have his projections up? I

551
00:26:31.680 --> 00:26:32.000
<v Speaker 4>don't have.

552
00:26:32.039 --> 00:26:33.680
<v Speaker 2>I'm not staring at those right now because I'm gonna

553
00:26:33.799 --> 00:26:38.039
<v Speaker 2>i'd like to guess. I'm gonna guess the projections are

554
00:26:38.119 --> 00:26:43.680
<v Speaker 2>gonna be two fifty five, twenty five, thirty five.

555
00:26:44.640 --> 00:26:47.000
<v Speaker 3>Uh, you were a little high on the average, two

556
00:26:47.119 --> 00:26:50.720
<v Speaker 3>forty six, Okay, Homer's I think you were.

557
00:26:50.759 --> 00:26:51.799
<v Speaker 4>What do you say, twenty five?

558
00:26:51.920 --> 00:26:54.960
<v Speaker 3>You were low on that, twenty nine and then right

559
00:26:55.000 --> 00:26:56.599
<v Speaker 3>on on the solen basis thirty five.

560
00:26:56.960 --> 00:26:58.799
<v Speaker 2>I love it, and I see it in his game,

561
00:26:58.799 --> 00:27:01.079
<v Speaker 2>and I see the ice, see the ballpark factor to

562
00:27:01.359 --> 00:27:05.400
<v Speaker 2>crazy pull heavy, it works. And then let's look one.

563
00:27:05.480 --> 00:27:08.240
<v Speaker 2>I mean, this is going to be kind of mixed here. Yeah,

564
00:27:08.279 --> 00:27:10.200
<v Speaker 2>see this is goofy. He only hit two thirty seven

565
00:27:10.240 --> 00:27:13.480
<v Speaker 2>at quote home this year and two eighty on the road.

566
00:27:13.599 --> 00:27:15.720
<v Speaker 2>But I don't know how it's accounting. I don't have

567
00:27:15.799 --> 00:27:20.960
<v Speaker 2>the breakdown of New York versus Miami home on here,

568
00:27:21.079 --> 00:27:23.960
<v Speaker 2>but I'm gonna guess the New York side is probably

569
00:27:23.960 --> 00:27:24.960
<v Speaker 2>holding him up quite a bit.

570
00:27:25.200 --> 00:27:27.759
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean, yeah, the batting average, everything went up

571
00:27:27.799 --> 00:27:29.799
<v Speaker 3>when we went to Yeah, he's just hit there.

572
00:27:29.880 --> 00:27:31.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think those are all positive. That's how I

573
00:27:31.480 --> 00:27:33.240
<v Speaker 2>look at him, just and I go, hey, there's a

574
00:27:33.279 --> 00:27:34.640
<v Speaker 2>bunch of great positives.

575
00:27:34.200 --> 00:27:34.599
<v Speaker 4>To this guy.

576
00:27:34.680 --> 00:27:36.880
<v Speaker 3>Let me ask you this, would you rather pay that

577
00:27:37.039 --> 00:27:41.079
<v Speaker 3>five costs for Jose or twenty five? Because that's something

578
00:27:41.119 --> 00:27:43.559
<v Speaker 3>where if you take Jose in the first round, you're

579
00:27:43.720 --> 00:27:46.319
<v Speaker 3>you're probably not thinking about Jazz in the second. But

580
00:27:47.200 --> 00:27:50.039
<v Speaker 3>you could take somebody else up there high that you like,

581
00:27:50.240 --> 00:27:53.119
<v Speaker 3>and then you could take Jazz in the second Which

582
00:27:53.160 --> 00:27:54.240
<v Speaker 3>one do you think you'd rather do?

583
00:27:55.079 --> 00:27:55.279
<v Speaker 4>See?

584
00:27:55.440 --> 00:27:59.400
<v Speaker 2>I wonder kind of depends on formats, like if it's NFBC,

585
00:27:59.599 --> 00:28:01.799
<v Speaker 2>Like how far do you want to go before pitchers?

586
00:28:01.839 --> 00:28:03.440
<v Speaker 2>If you got a high pick and then you're taking

587
00:28:03.440 --> 00:28:05.759
<v Speaker 2>a that's like a second round pick. I know what

588
00:28:05.799 --> 00:28:08.240
<v Speaker 2>you're saying, and I think it's it's logically just.

589
00:28:08.160 --> 00:28:11.440
<v Speaker 3>A third base discussion only like would you rather take

590
00:28:11.480 --> 00:28:14.880
<v Speaker 3>the first overall or the second overall in the second round?

591
00:28:15.000 --> 00:28:19.359
<v Speaker 2>I would rather take Ramirez because I feel very comfortable. Also,

592
00:28:19.400 --> 00:28:22.000
<v Speaker 2>he's healthier and stuff like that. You feel for sure

593
00:28:22.039 --> 00:28:25.160
<v Speaker 2>about him, But your logic is right and sound in that,

594
00:28:25.359 --> 00:28:27.480
<v Speaker 2>like you might not have as crazy of a dip

595
00:28:27.519 --> 00:28:29.480
<v Speaker 2>in production as you think when you move over to

596
00:28:29.519 --> 00:28:33.000
<v Speaker 2>a guy like Jazz next up here, as far as

597
00:28:33.200 --> 00:28:36.000
<v Speaker 2>we're following the NFBC ADP, not our own ranks or

598
00:28:36.039 --> 00:28:39.559
<v Speaker 2>anything like that, we are going to Austin Riley with

599
00:28:39.720 --> 00:28:42.960
<v Speaker 2>the Atlanta Braves, only had four hundred and twenty five

600
00:28:42.960 --> 00:28:46.160
<v Speaker 2>at bats this year, hit two fifty six nineteen homers.

601
00:28:46.200 --> 00:28:47.759
<v Speaker 2>I believe he got hurt at the end of the

602
00:28:47.799 --> 00:28:51.160
<v Speaker 2>year that missed the time. Great barrel percentage, way up

603
00:28:51.160 --> 00:28:55.599
<v Speaker 2>to hard to hit percentage, pretty good stabilize XBA. So

604
00:28:55.640 --> 00:28:59.480
<v Speaker 2>he actually underperformed his expected batting average this past year.

605
00:29:00.400 --> 00:29:03.680
<v Speaker 2>He struggled against lefties, hit righties well. But you know,

606
00:29:03.720 --> 00:29:06.000
<v Speaker 2>he played very little in the in the second half.

607
00:29:06.039 --> 00:29:08.680
<v Speaker 2>But things were like locked in. They were just like

608
00:29:08.720 --> 00:29:12.160
<v Speaker 2>they were on pace on how it was going. Initial

609
00:29:12.200 --> 00:29:17.079
<v Speaker 2>takes on Austin Riley Also that savant slider page, he's

610
00:29:17.200 --> 00:29:19.400
<v Speaker 2>not he's below average, Like as far as like he

611
00:29:19.480 --> 00:29:22.039
<v Speaker 2>wiffs a decent amount, he strikes out more than normal,

612
00:29:22.519 --> 00:29:27.039
<v Speaker 2>but it's almost top ten ish percent across the board,

613
00:29:27.039 --> 00:29:29.880
<v Speaker 2>and like it's a it's super super hard hit, great

614
00:29:29.920 --> 00:29:34.720
<v Speaker 2>barrel batspeed, expected slug, expected wOBA like those are high

615
00:29:34.839 --> 00:29:35.400
<v Speaker 2>end stuff.

616
00:29:36.000 --> 00:29:39.599
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and I mean, it feels weird to say this

617
00:29:39.839 --> 00:29:44.079
<v Speaker 3>because this is not like who Austin Riley was supposed

618
00:29:44.079 --> 00:29:46.559
<v Speaker 3>to be coming in. I feel like he had the

619
00:29:47.359 --> 00:29:52.079
<v Speaker 3>huge year in twenty two or I'm sorry twenty one,

620
00:29:52.400 --> 00:29:55.640
<v Speaker 3>and everyone went, eh, I don't know, let's see it

621
00:29:55.720 --> 00:29:58.039
<v Speaker 3>repeat in twenty two, and then it did, and then

622
00:29:58.039 --> 00:29:59.920
<v Speaker 3>again in twenty twenty three, and then he finally got

623
00:30:00.079 --> 00:30:02.920
<v Speaker 3>hurt in twenty twenty four. So I think what you

624
00:30:02.960 --> 00:30:05.960
<v Speaker 3>see is what you get from Riley.

625
00:30:06.039 --> 00:30:06.319
<v Speaker 1>Now.

626
00:30:06.559 --> 00:30:10.839
<v Speaker 3>The batting average is the question here, right, because he

627
00:30:10.960 --> 00:30:12.599
<v Speaker 3>was all the way up to three oho three, two

628
00:30:12.640 --> 00:30:15.160
<v Speaker 3>seventy three, then two eighty one, it dipped down to

629
00:30:15.160 --> 00:30:17.759
<v Speaker 3>two fifty six this season. What did you said he

630
00:30:18.599 --> 00:30:21.880
<v Speaker 3>performed a little bit in his XBA No, yeah, he

631
00:30:22.000 --> 00:30:25.839
<v Speaker 3>underperformed it, yes, right, So that should come up the

632
00:30:26.000 --> 00:30:28.559
<v Speaker 3>end of the year. With the hand fracture, I think

633
00:30:28.599 --> 00:30:31.640
<v Speaker 3>it kind of you know, one concerning thing would be

634
00:30:32.079 --> 00:30:33.880
<v Speaker 3>he was kind of supposed to come back at the

635
00:30:33.960 --> 00:30:35.440
<v Speaker 3>end of the year and they just said it wasn't

636
00:30:35.480 --> 00:30:38.440
<v Speaker 3>healing as fast as they expected it to be, so

637
00:30:38.920 --> 00:30:42.640
<v Speaker 3>he didn't come back. I assume with a full offseason

638
00:30:42.680 --> 00:30:45.240
<v Speaker 3>of rest and rehab and all that stuff. He's going

639
00:30:45.319 --> 00:30:47.839
<v Speaker 3>to be fine, something to look at. But I think

640
00:30:47.880 --> 00:30:51.880
<v Speaker 3>Austin Riley is pretty cut and dry, good power, very

641
00:30:51.880 --> 00:30:54.839
<v Speaker 3>good player, deserves to be right in this mix of

642
00:30:54.880 --> 00:30:58.599
<v Speaker 3>where these third basemen are going, and you know, not

643
00:30:58.680 --> 00:30:59.519
<v Speaker 3>a lot to add there.

644
00:30:59.720 --> 00:31:02.160
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'll say I wanted to look at his swing

645
00:31:02.200 --> 00:31:06.319
<v Speaker 2>profile here because he saw more fastballs this year. Still

646
00:31:06.319 --> 00:31:10.079
<v Speaker 2>a little bit more what of my Austin Riley here? Yeah,

647
00:31:10.119 --> 00:31:14.640
<v Speaker 2>so he saw more forcing fastballs, which can you guess

648
00:31:14.640 --> 00:31:17.480
<v Speaker 2>what his batting average was against forcing fastballs? I just

649
00:31:17.519 --> 00:31:20.519
<v Speaker 2>want to give you a perspective. The fastball batting average,

650
00:31:20.559 --> 00:31:24.880
<v Speaker 2>which combines all baseball Zavant type fastballs, is two fifty two.

651
00:31:25.000 --> 00:31:27.400
<v Speaker 2>Can you guess what his forcing fastball batting average was?

652
00:31:28.200 --> 00:31:30.720
<v Speaker 2>Three hundred one? Two?

653
00:31:30.880 --> 00:31:32.680
<v Speaker 4>Oh real bad, other way.

654
00:31:32.720 --> 00:31:36.160
<v Speaker 2>Really really bad. But his XBA was two forty two.

655
00:31:36.519 --> 00:31:42.079
<v Speaker 2>He destroyed sinkers four hundred he hit where the year

656
00:31:42.119 --> 00:31:44.440
<v Speaker 2>prior he had hit three thirty one. But that's an

657
00:31:44.480 --> 00:31:48.000
<v Speaker 2>eighty point drop against forcing fastballs. So the reason I

658
00:31:48.000 --> 00:31:50.680
<v Speaker 2>say this is I pulled up his swing profile. So

659
00:31:50.720 --> 00:31:54.720
<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty three, I think I've identified where the

660
00:31:54.720 --> 00:31:57.920
<v Speaker 2>stuff is. Like he's a great like inside, uh, he

661
00:31:58.039 --> 00:32:00.680
<v Speaker 2>swings it inside pitches. I mean, I guess I could

662
00:32:00.680 --> 00:32:02.079
<v Speaker 2>look at his batting average. Let me look at his

663
00:32:02.079 --> 00:32:06.599
<v Speaker 2>batting average real quick twenty twenty three inside lower third

664
00:32:06.599 --> 00:32:09.400
<v Speaker 2>of the zone hit four forty at the very top

665
00:32:09.440 --> 00:32:12.359
<v Speaker 2>of the inside three point eighty two. This past year

666
00:32:12.599 --> 00:32:14.240
<v Speaker 2>it's about the same. He even did a little bit

667
00:32:14.279 --> 00:32:16.440
<v Speaker 2>better on inside stuff, but it's the bottom of the

668
00:32:16.519 --> 00:32:19.640
<v Speaker 2>zone is where I was getting at. So his swing percentage,

669
00:32:20.279 --> 00:32:22.680
<v Speaker 2>this might not be interesting to everybody, but his swing

670
00:32:22.720 --> 00:32:26.160
<v Speaker 2>percentage in twenty twenty three was like, this is the

671
00:32:26.160 --> 00:32:29.039
<v Speaker 2>bottom four that go across, you know, all the way

672
00:32:29.039 --> 00:32:31.279
<v Speaker 2>to the other side of the plate. And we again

673
00:32:31.319 --> 00:32:34.079
<v Speaker 2>we're breaking this into four eight, twelve, sixteen, so sixteen

674
00:32:34.119 --> 00:32:37.480
<v Speaker 2>squares inside of your zone. The bottom four. He had

675
00:32:37.519 --> 00:32:40.200
<v Speaker 2>a swing percentage of fifty six, forty three, forty six

676
00:32:40.279 --> 00:32:43.880
<v Speaker 2>and twenty five. So that's from inside to outside and

677
00:32:43.920 --> 00:32:46.920
<v Speaker 2>then the outside of the zone. But below the bottom

678
00:32:46.920 --> 00:32:49.440
<v Speaker 2>of the zone thirty three, twenty nine, thirty two, twenty eight.

679
00:32:49.720 --> 00:32:54.160
<v Speaker 2>That seems about right. This past year inside bottom thirty

680
00:32:54.200 --> 00:32:56.839
<v Speaker 2>six percent, So he stopped swinging as much at those

681
00:32:57.440 --> 00:33:01.720
<v Speaker 2>seventy percent of the next one fifty seven percent, So

682
00:33:01.759 --> 00:33:03.960
<v Speaker 2>those are like the middle bottom of the zone, he

683
00:33:04.039 --> 00:33:07.720
<v Speaker 2>swung a bunch and then he stopped swinging outside of

684
00:33:06.839 --> 00:33:10.279
<v Speaker 2>the far into the left side of the plate thirty

685
00:33:10.319 --> 00:33:17.119
<v Speaker 2>seven percent, but the quadrant right under the inside bottom

686
00:33:17.400 --> 00:33:20.559
<v Speaker 2>sixty seven percent swing percentage. So what I'm getting at

687
00:33:20.599 --> 00:33:25.240
<v Speaker 2>here is like people were throwing him like low inside

688
00:33:25.400 --> 00:33:28.839
<v Speaker 2>and that one on the lower inside he was just

689
00:33:29.039 --> 00:33:32.680
<v Speaker 2>swinging through. And I mean the whiff rate, I'm gonna

690
00:33:32.680 --> 00:33:36.160
<v Speaker 2>look at here real quick. Let's see, I mean fifty

691
00:33:36.200 --> 00:33:38.519
<v Speaker 2>percent in twenty twenty three. Yeah, I mean the whiff

692
00:33:38.559 --> 00:33:41.319
<v Speaker 2>rate looks like it is a bit up overall in

693
00:33:41.400 --> 00:33:44.119
<v Speaker 2>the zone and just wild outside of the zones. So

694
00:33:44.519 --> 00:33:47.000
<v Speaker 2>again that might have like racked everybody's brain. All that

695
00:33:47.039 --> 00:33:49.119
<v Speaker 2>I was looking at there was like, you know, why

696
00:33:49.119 --> 00:33:51.079
<v Speaker 2>did he see more fastballs? And what's the thing that

697
00:33:51.119 --> 00:33:54.039
<v Speaker 2>people saw? And it was like, oh, lower inside on

698
00:33:54.079 --> 00:33:56.480
<v Speaker 2>the zone, he really wasn't doing a whole lot with

699
00:33:56.640 --> 00:33:59.079
<v Speaker 2>And that's where maybe some of that whiff came from

700
00:33:59.119 --> 00:34:03.720
<v Speaker 2>this year. But he massively underperformed against forcing fastballs. To me,

701
00:34:04.839 --> 00:34:08.559
<v Speaker 2>that's a huge positive regression sign. Positive regression, my friends,

702
00:34:08.559 --> 00:34:12.920
<v Speaker 2>You you're not gonna survive in most pitches. One seventy

703
00:34:13.039 --> 00:34:17.280
<v Speaker 2>two batting average against forcing fastballs. Ah that and and

704
00:34:17.280 --> 00:34:20.360
<v Speaker 2>and by the way, they expect a batting average seventy

705
00:34:20.440 --> 00:34:24.719
<v Speaker 2>points higher expected to hit. That's a very big positive

706
00:34:25.079 --> 00:34:27.760
<v Speaker 2>if that is the case. And you know, maybe some

707
00:34:27.880 --> 00:34:29.960
<v Speaker 2>of that was like he just saw more sinkers and

708
00:34:30.000 --> 00:34:32.320
<v Speaker 2>stuff like that, but I see that as a very

709
00:34:32.360 --> 00:34:34.440
<v Speaker 2>good positive to a guy that has a great profile.

710
00:34:34.599 --> 00:34:38.119
<v Speaker 2>Made more zone contact this year than he had the

711
00:34:38.159 --> 00:34:41.760
<v Speaker 2>prior year. You know, his strikeoup percentage is about the same,

712
00:34:41.800 --> 00:34:45.280
<v Speaker 2>he barreled more. I'm just saying, if he stays healthy,

713
00:34:45.480 --> 00:34:47.599
<v Speaker 2>those seems like thing, those seem like things that are

714
00:34:47.599 --> 00:34:48.880
<v Speaker 2>going to bounce back in his favor.

715
00:34:49.559 --> 00:34:51.079
<v Speaker 4>Yeah. I think so too.

716
00:34:51.559 --> 00:34:55.400
<v Speaker 3>I think, like I said, kind of cut and draw

717
00:34:56.480 --> 00:34:59.920
<v Speaker 3>for a player, just a dude that is very productive.

718
00:34:59.639 --> 00:35:09.119
<v Speaker 4>Just because British. Yeah I draw I had in my throat.

719
00:35:07.639 --> 00:35:11.679
<v Speaker 3>Anyway, are like Austin, He's gonna hit the crap out

720
00:35:11.679 --> 00:35:14.199
<v Speaker 3>of the ball here. Uh yeah, No, I can't do

721
00:35:14.239 --> 00:35:17.599
<v Speaker 3>a British accent. But yeah, I think pretty cut and dry.

722
00:35:18.519 --> 00:35:21.519
<v Speaker 3>I like the the quadrant breakdown of the swing.

723
00:35:21.800 --> 00:35:24.039
<v Speaker 2>It's really tough to do on an audio medium. I

724
00:35:24.079 --> 00:35:25.119
<v Speaker 2>apologize like it.

725
00:35:25.199 --> 00:35:26.639
<v Speaker 3>I like it. I had it in my I was

726
00:35:26.639 --> 00:35:29.079
<v Speaker 3>looking at my head the wrong way for whatever reason.

727
00:35:29.119 --> 00:35:30.760
<v Speaker 3>I was like, is he reaching like I thought it

728
00:35:30.800 --> 00:35:31.679
<v Speaker 3>was the outside.

729
00:35:31.400 --> 00:35:34.119
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, No, it in the lower inside, and and he

730
00:35:34.199 --> 00:35:37.079
<v Speaker 2>was just swinging at the outside ones less it looked like.

731
00:35:37.480 --> 00:35:40.519
<v Speaker 2>And then the inside ones was kind of the same thing,

732
00:35:40.519 --> 00:35:43.320
<v Speaker 2>and he was chasing more. They were throwing it under

733
00:35:43.360 --> 00:35:46.199
<v Speaker 2>the zone. So the identification was, all right, we throw

734
00:35:46.280 --> 00:35:48.679
<v Speaker 2>him low, and then you had pictures that were throwing

735
00:35:48.760 --> 00:35:51.440
<v Speaker 2>him low and inside, and he was swinging a lot

736
00:35:51.480 --> 00:35:54.119
<v Speaker 2>more at those things. But though he did have some

737
00:35:54.159 --> 00:35:56.000
<v Speaker 2>points when you left it in the middle low of

738
00:35:56.000 --> 00:35:58.519
<v Speaker 2>the zone, his batting average actually went up this past year.

739
00:35:58.599 --> 00:36:01.239
<v Speaker 2>So like that's where peop trying to attack him. Like

740
00:36:01.280 --> 00:36:03.280
<v Speaker 2>he's got great bat speed, so he's going to catch

741
00:36:03.360 --> 00:36:05.880
<v Speaker 2>up to stuff higher in the zone, so pitchers are

742
00:36:05.880 --> 00:36:07.039
<v Speaker 2>trying to get him lower.

743
00:36:07.360 --> 00:36:08.920
<v Speaker 4>Looks like they did to a degree.

744
00:36:08.960 --> 00:36:12.320
<v Speaker 2>But it's like that forcing fastball, Like there's a narrative

745
00:36:12.360 --> 00:36:14.239
<v Speaker 2>of a lot what I talk about. Maybe it's boring

746
00:36:14.280 --> 00:36:16.719
<v Speaker 2>and stuff like that, or are eye rolling or whatever

747
00:36:16.920 --> 00:36:20.719
<v Speaker 2>the people smarter than me, But there's crazy correlations between

748
00:36:20.760 --> 00:36:22.639
<v Speaker 2>forcing fastball and success or.

749
00:36:22.599 --> 00:36:26.039
<v Speaker 4>Lacks the pitch. You see the most by a lot,

750
00:36:26.199 --> 00:36:27.639
<v Speaker 4>and if every hitter.

751
00:36:27.639 --> 00:36:30.599
<v Speaker 2>If you destroy I mean like, okay, maybe you're there's

752
00:36:30.639 --> 00:36:33.079
<v Speaker 2>a few pitchers or hitters that are gonna just always

753
00:36:33.360 --> 00:36:36.119
<v Speaker 2>be insanely dominant. But guess what, Like if a big

754
00:36:36.199 --> 00:36:38.840
<v Speaker 2>correlative thing in your game was you, all of a

755
00:36:38.880 --> 00:36:42.159
<v Speaker 2>sudden hit three thirty against forcing fastballs and usually hit

756
00:36:42.199 --> 00:36:45.079
<v Speaker 2>two eighty, You're probably gonna have pictures that are gonna

757
00:36:45.119 --> 00:36:47.480
<v Speaker 2>change their approach to you, and you know you're gonna

758
00:36:47.519 --> 00:36:49.760
<v Speaker 2>underperform against that pitch type, and then you might see

759
00:36:49.800 --> 00:36:53.039
<v Speaker 2>more of something you struggle. So like really high h

760
00:36:53.559 --> 00:36:57.320
<v Speaker 2>forcing fastball performances to me kind of scream like there

761
00:36:57.400 --> 00:36:58.840
<v Speaker 2>might be a little bit of regression in the game.

762
00:36:58.920 --> 00:37:00.880
<v Speaker 2>And then the inverse half as well. It's not a

763
00:37:00.880 --> 00:37:04.079
<v Speaker 2>perfect science, probably, but it's something. As we keep talking,

764
00:37:04.119 --> 00:37:06.239
<v Speaker 2>it's like, okay, check that in the back of your mind.

765
00:37:06.480 --> 00:37:09.519
<v Speaker 2>And this is like the most this is the most apparent.

766
00:37:09.599 --> 00:37:11.280
<v Speaker 2>We haven't seen a player that we broke down in

767
00:37:11.320 --> 00:37:14.320
<v Speaker 2>this series yet that struggled this much against forcing fastballs

768
00:37:14.480 --> 00:37:16.079
<v Speaker 2>that is as elite of a guy.

769
00:37:16.360 --> 00:37:19.800
<v Speaker 3>So I kind of like, why go get you Austin Riley,

770
00:37:20.519 --> 00:37:21.239
<v Speaker 3>go get him?

771
00:37:21.320 --> 00:37:22.079
<v Speaker 4>Great play it.

772
00:37:22.519 --> 00:37:25.519
<v Speaker 2>I can't I hear much better impression than my mine

773
00:37:25.559 --> 00:37:28.840
<v Speaker 2>is terrible. He is not good at all, really bad. Uh,

774
00:37:29.000 --> 00:37:31.079
<v Speaker 2>the other version of Austin Riley. I think these guys

775
00:37:31.079 --> 00:37:33.880
<v Speaker 2>just flow together. Ruffael Devers another one of these, like

776
00:37:33.880 --> 00:37:37.519
<v Speaker 2>as a big core players, you know, like Jose Ramirez

777
00:37:37.559 --> 00:37:40.119
<v Speaker 2>owns this position. But then you get into this. I

778
00:37:40.119 --> 00:37:42.320
<v Speaker 2>guess you could argue about the value, but it's like

779
00:37:42.360 --> 00:37:44.679
<v Speaker 2>this is where we're just into these like really solid dudes,

780
00:37:45.079 --> 00:37:47.440
<v Speaker 2>and it is as solid as it can get. To

781
00:37:47.440 --> 00:37:49.760
<v Speaker 2>seventy two average. He hit two seventy one the year before,

782
00:37:50.000 --> 00:37:52.920
<v Speaker 2>Homers were down a little bit to seventy two. Ended

783
00:37:53.000 --> 00:37:56.679
<v Speaker 2>up having eighty seven runs on the season with eighty

784
00:37:56.679 --> 00:37:59.000
<v Speaker 2>three RBI, so is the lowest RBI he's had since

785
00:37:59.039 --> 00:38:01.880
<v Speaker 2>two thousand and two when they played fifty seven games.

786
00:38:02.280 --> 00:38:03.920
<v Speaker 2>So that was down a bit, but that also kind

787
00:38:03.920 --> 00:38:06.719
<v Speaker 2>of speaks to the team in general. Hard hit was

788
00:38:06.760 --> 00:38:09.840
<v Speaker 2>down around three percent, but it's still elite of elite.

789
00:38:10.480 --> 00:38:14.320
<v Speaker 2>Crazy high strikeout rate jump from twenty seven percent in

790
00:38:14.320 --> 00:38:17.719
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty. This is the second highest incident of twenty

791
00:38:17.880 --> 00:38:20.920
<v Speaker 2>four point five. But he walked more, he barreled a

792
00:38:20.920 --> 00:38:23.559
<v Speaker 2>bit more, still got the ball in the air, I

793
00:38:23.719 --> 00:38:26.039
<v Speaker 2>leave it to you for a minute. For Rafael Devers, he.

794
00:38:26.000 --> 00:38:29.840
<v Speaker 3>Had a couple bigger splits two ninety three versus righties

795
00:38:29.880 --> 00:38:33.400
<v Speaker 3>to forty first left these big fifty three point difference,

796
00:38:33.639 --> 00:38:36.880
<v Speaker 3>three to zero one at home to forty seven away

797
00:38:36.920 --> 00:38:40.440
<v Speaker 3>four point difference, and his average sank every month from

798
00:38:40.519 --> 00:38:45.679
<v Speaker 3>July to September. So little concerns with Devers, but still

799
00:38:46.079 --> 00:38:49.039
<v Speaker 3>the resume adds up to be a top five third

800
00:38:49.079 --> 00:38:51.280
<v Speaker 3>baseman every single time you look at it.

801
00:38:52.000 --> 00:38:55.559
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and looking across here of any other fun things.

802
00:38:56.159 --> 00:38:58.360
<v Speaker 2>Hit three zero one at home, only two forty seven

803
00:38:58.440 --> 00:38:59.639
<v Speaker 2>on the road. Did you say that one because you

804
00:38:59.639 --> 00:39:01.800
<v Speaker 2>were talking about the other? Yeah, yeah, you said the

805
00:39:01.800 --> 00:39:05.360
<v Speaker 2>home road split. Uh so there are some extreme ones

806
00:39:05.400 --> 00:39:06.039
<v Speaker 2>in there.

807
00:39:05.800 --> 00:39:08.000
<v Speaker 4>What are his like?

808
00:39:08.400 --> 00:39:10.599
<v Speaker 3>I just want to look real quick at his career

809
00:39:10.679 --> 00:39:14.239
<v Speaker 3>splits on writing verse leftis. I didn't compare it because

810
00:39:14.280 --> 00:39:16.880
<v Speaker 3>maybe it's just it's always been this wide of a gap.

811
00:39:17.440 --> 00:39:20.719
<v Speaker 3>No not, I mean still a pretty significant gap to

812
00:39:20.840 --> 00:39:24.960
<v Speaker 3>eighty six versus rieties, two sixty five vers lefties over

813
00:39:25.000 --> 00:39:28.280
<v Speaker 3>his career two ninety two at home versus two sixty

814
00:39:28.320 --> 00:39:32.840
<v Speaker 3>eight away. His first half adding average is eight points

815
00:39:32.880 --> 00:39:35.880
<v Speaker 3>better than his second half adding average, so the differences

816
00:39:35.960 --> 00:39:37.639
<v Speaker 3>were bigger this season.

817
00:39:38.679 --> 00:39:42.000
<v Speaker 2>Looking here too, the twenty twenty three pitch mix it

818
00:39:42.119 --> 00:39:44.639
<v Speaker 2>changed this year. It was like, these are the top

819
00:39:44.639 --> 00:39:48.360
<v Speaker 2>four forceem change up, sinker, slider. This past year for

820
00:39:48.599 --> 00:39:52.199
<v Speaker 2>seam sinker, slider, cutter, they stopped throwing them change ups,

821
00:39:52.280 --> 00:39:54.639
<v Speaker 2>and that kind of sparked me to look, there are

822
00:39:54.679 --> 00:39:57.199
<v Speaker 2>so many pitch types that he struggled with in twenty

823
00:39:57.280 --> 00:40:01.239
<v Speaker 2>twenty three that had massively higher expect batting average, which

824
00:40:01.280 --> 00:40:04.119
<v Speaker 2>guess what they bounced back the year and the next

825
00:40:04.159 --> 00:40:07.800
<v Speaker 2>year change ups. In twenty twenty three he hit two

826
00:40:07.880 --> 00:40:11.599
<v Speaker 2>twenty one with a two eighty seven expected. In twenty twenty.

827
00:40:11.320 --> 00:40:15.079
<v Speaker 4>Four he hit three fifteen GA, so I won know

828
00:40:15.119 --> 00:40:16.800
<v Speaker 4>what he worked on in the offseason well.

829
00:40:16.840 --> 00:40:19.599
<v Speaker 2>But also, like a lot of people get very roly

830
00:40:19.639 --> 00:40:22.440
<v Speaker 2>about expected numbers, it's not one hundred percent, but like

831
00:40:23.000 --> 00:40:25.960
<v Speaker 2>extremes can tell you like where things can bounce back.

832
00:40:26.400 --> 00:40:30.840
<v Speaker 2>He underperformed against forcing fastballs, but dude, it is seventy

833
00:40:31.039 --> 00:40:34.440
<v Speaker 2>one percent hard hit rate against forcing fastballs.

834
00:40:34.519 --> 00:40:35.400
<v Speaker 4>That's absurd.

835
00:40:35.679 --> 00:40:39.519
<v Speaker 2>With a batting average that he overperformed against, which is

836
00:40:39.559 --> 00:40:42.760
<v Speaker 2>something to consider. Though his strikeout rate went up, it

837
00:40:42.840 --> 00:40:46.159
<v Speaker 2>was all fastballs, ladies and gentlemen. I should say he

838
00:40:46.199 --> 00:40:49.719
<v Speaker 2>did sliders too. He actually had a ten percent to

839
00:40:49.960 --> 00:40:52.920
<v Speaker 2>ten percentile point increase. He went from sixteen to twenty

840
00:40:53.000 --> 00:40:56.440
<v Speaker 2>six percent, but forcing fastballs went from twenty seven percent

841
00:40:56.480 --> 00:40:59.800
<v Speaker 2>to striking out forty two percent of the time on fastballs.

842
00:41:00.000 --> 00:41:02.000
<v Speaker 4>Oh Rafael Devers.

843
00:41:02.079 --> 00:41:07.599
<v Speaker 2>Was selling out to demolish for seeing fastballs. His batting

844
00:41:07.639 --> 00:41:10.920
<v Speaker 2>average overperformed. He hit it like crazy, he struck out

845
00:41:10.960 --> 00:41:14.599
<v Speaker 2>and clearly he was destroying hit a fifteen run value

846
00:41:14.679 --> 00:41:18.199
<v Speaker 2>on forcing fastballs. His own contact percentage went way down

847
00:41:18.280 --> 00:41:18.960
<v Speaker 2>because of that.

848
00:41:19.360 --> 00:41:19.920
<v Speaker 4>So I'm not.

849
00:41:19.880 --> 00:41:22.400
<v Speaker 2>Sure how I feel about that. He's got weird splits.

850
00:41:23.239 --> 00:41:26.480
<v Speaker 2>He definitely was selling out for power more based on

851
00:41:26.559 --> 00:41:28.719
<v Speaker 2>what I'm seeing, But he hits the ball across a

852
00:41:28.760 --> 00:41:32.280
<v Speaker 2>lot of different pitch types really well with low strikeout percentages.

853
00:41:32.480 --> 00:41:34.320
<v Speaker 2>I kind of think that's what you want your power hitter.

854
00:41:34.480 --> 00:41:36.599
<v Speaker 2>You want a guy that can hit these other pitch

855
00:41:36.639 --> 00:41:41.280
<v Speaker 2>types solidly for contact, decent contact across the board, and

856
00:41:41.320 --> 00:41:44.679
<v Speaker 2>then sell his ass out for power to try to demolish.

857
00:41:44.719 --> 00:41:47.679
<v Speaker 2>His XBA supported his batting average. He has had a

858
00:41:47.760 --> 00:41:51.239
<v Speaker 2>two seventy two or higher expected batting average for four

859
00:41:51.320 --> 00:41:54.760
<v Speaker 2>straight years, So I like this profile stuff. It just

860
00:41:54.840 --> 00:41:56.719
<v Speaker 2>might show a weirdness in the game if you get

861
00:41:56.719 --> 00:41:59.800
<v Speaker 2>a little bit of run support raf Fael Devers. I

862
00:41:59.880 --> 00:42:01.960
<v Speaker 2>just don't know if I have a I have a

863
00:42:02.000 --> 00:42:04.079
<v Speaker 2>feel on Devers versus Riley right now.

864
00:42:04.119 --> 00:42:05.960
<v Speaker 3>That's what I was exactly going to ask you. I

865
00:42:05.960 --> 00:42:08.480
<v Speaker 3>was gonna say, you know, and we're not holding your

866
00:42:08.480 --> 00:42:10.599
<v Speaker 3>feet to the fly to the fire here at all.

867
00:42:10.960 --> 00:42:17.079
<v Speaker 3>But uh do you think, like, well, well, I understand that,

868
00:42:17.159 --> 00:42:21.159
<v Speaker 3>but like what concerns you more is these weird splits

869
00:42:21.440 --> 00:42:24.880
<v Speaker 3>with Devers or you know, the hand injury that was

870
00:42:24.920 --> 00:42:29.079
<v Speaker 3>recovering slowly for Austin Riley, which one is and this

871
00:42:29.119 --> 00:42:32.639
<v Speaker 3>is purely poking holes at the very top, you know,

872
00:42:32.880 --> 00:42:36.039
<v Speaker 3>this is this might be an overall difference of two

873
00:42:36.119 --> 00:42:39.880
<v Speaker 3>spots for these guys in your rankings that are you know,

874
00:42:40.000 --> 00:42:44.480
<v Speaker 3>overall and not positional. So we're not you know, this

875
00:42:44.519 --> 00:42:47.639
<v Speaker 3>isn't a major difference. What it What is the thing

876
00:42:47.760 --> 00:42:49.360
<v Speaker 3>that you would say concerns you more?

877
00:42:49.400 --> 00:42:49.719
<v Speaker 4>I don't know.

878
00:42:49.719 --> 00:42:52.280
<v Speaker 2>I think it's it's maybe Devers another thing I didn't

879
00:42:52.280 --> 00:42:55.519
<v Speaker 2>even like notice until right now. I mean, his his

880
00:42:55.559 --> 00:42:58.079
<v Speaker 2>pull right went down, look at his spray chart. Remember

881
00:42:58.119 --> 00:43:02.239
<v Speaker 2>he's a left handed hitter. Why two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight.

882
00:43:02.760 --> 00:43:06.599
<v Speaker 2>I think there's eight legitimate homers that were pullside. Everything

883
00:43:06.639 --> 00:43:09.440
<v Speaker 2>else was opposite field. So I mean that's a benefit

884
00:43:09.480 --> 00:43:11.559
<v Speaker 2>from the home perspective for him to do it, and

885
00:43:11.599 --> 00:43:14.800
<v Speaker 2>maybe why you're selling out for more power and fastballs,

886
00:43:14.800 --> 00:43:17.599
<v Speaker 2>because you know, if you're sitting behind it and you

887
00:43:17.639 --> 00:43:20.360
<v Speaker 2>can just get it up, you know, hitting in Boston

888
00:43:20.639 --> 00:43:22.840
<v Speaker 2>is going to be a benefit. That also might be

889
00:43:22.920 --> 00:43:24.960
<v Speaker 2>why there was bad home road splits by the way.

890
00:43:25.000 --> 00:43:27.199
<v Speaker 2>You're cheating at home and you're taking that on the

891
00:43:27.280 --> 00:43:29.519
<v Speaker 2>road with you and you can't hit everything opposite field.

892
00:43:30.079 --> 00:43:32.039
<v Speaker 4>I have right, I have a Devers.

893
00:43:31.639 --> 00:43:33.639
<v Speaker 2>One spot ahead of Riley. But it's making me think

894
00:43:33.719 --> 00:43:35.880
<v Speaker 2>more like the thing that like when I look at

895
00:43:35.880 --> 00:43:39.960
<v Speaker 2>the negatives, I go, Riley, you sucked against fastballs, but

896
00:43:39.960 --> 00:43:42.159
<v Speaker 2>that's gonna get better an injury. I look at devers.

897
00:43:42.880 --> 00:43:46.039
<v Speaker 2>I think they're smaller, but like there's a lot of them.

898
00:43:46.119 --> 00:43:49.039
<v Speaker 2>It's like right road split, lefty split. Here you're not

899
00:43:49.119 --> 00:43:51.039
<v Speaker 2>pulling the ball like, there's like a lot of little

900
00:43:51.039 --> 00:43:51.599
<v Speaker 2>tiny ones.

901
00:43:51.599 --> 00:43:53.760
<v Speaker 4>So it's like a big baby cut or two big cuts.

902
00:43:53.760 --> 00:43:56.159
<v Speaker 2>Which one do you want? You know, I'll just give

903
00:43:56.199 --> 00:43:58.360
<v Speaker 2>me the give me which everyone's cheaper. Probably at the

904
00:43:58.440 --> 00:44:00.719
<v Speaker 2>end of the day, I think so too. That's just

905
00:44:00.800 --> 00:44:02.480
<v Speaker 2>kind of my take on it. Like I think they're

906
00:44:02.519 --> 00:44:04.480
<v Speaker 2>both gonna be solid, but I do see like positive

907
00:44:04.480 --> 00:44:07.760
<v Speaker 2>regression for Riley where I'm a little torn on like

908
00:44:08.119 --> 00:44:09.599
<v Speaker 2>who this version of Devors is, but.

909
00:44:09.559 --> 00:44:11.639
<v Speaker 3>It's still I would throw the last guy in this

910
00:44:11.760 --> 00:44:14.679
<v Speaker 3>group in that as well. Whoever is cheapest.

911
00:44:15.079 --> 00:44:18.960
<v Speaker 2>Maybe, yeah, So Machado two seventy five almost there's about

912
00:44:19.000 --> 00:44:21.800
<v Speaker 2>a twenty batting average point raised from the previous year.

913
00:44:21.840 --> 00:44:24.599
<v Speaker 2>He's just consistently like somewhere between twenty nine and thirty homers.

914
00:44:24.599 --> 00:44:28.039
<v Speaker 2>He stole more bases this past year. Barrel percentage upticked,

915
00:44:28.159 --> 00:44:30.800
<v Speaker 2>hard hit percentage uptick. These are from the previous year.

916
00:44:31.800 --> 00:44:34.519
<v Speaker 2>Max ev was up, average EV was up, like he

917
00:44:34.559 --> 00:44:38.679
<v Speaker 2>was just making solid quality contact. His savant sliders all

918
00:44:38.719 --> 00:44:42.119
<v Speaker 2>pretty good. They're not like top ten percentile of the league,

919
00:44:42.159 --> 00:44:44.760
<v Speaker 2>but it's like top twenty five percentile, and like barrel

920
00:44:44.920 --> 00:44:48.239
<v Speaker 2>and hard hit and average excevelocity and stuff like that.

921
00:44:48.760 --> 00:44:50.760
<v Speaker 2>Early take on Manny Machado, I feel like he's like

922
00:44:50.800 --> 00:44:53.719
<v Speaker 2>a step down. But to your point, like he's in

923
00:44:53.800 --> 00:44:57.360
<v Speaker 2>this territory. Here's here's my only caveat, even though I

924
00:44:57.360 --> 00:45:00.079
<v Speaker 2>just asked you a question, because he's so close to them,

925
00:45:00.400 --> 00:45:02.679
<v Speaker 2>I don't agree with this. If he was, Oh, if

926
00:45:02.719 --> 00:45:04.519
<v Speaker 2>these guys were in the thirties and Machada was in

927
00:45:04.559 --> 00:45:06.719
<v Speaker 2>the fifties, then I think Machada is the case. These

928
00:45:06.719 --> 00:45:09.639
<v Speaker 2>guys are all in NFBC within seven spots of each other,

929
00:45:09.679 --> 00:45:10.639
<v Speaker 2>and that I disagree with.

930
00:45:10.719 --> 00:45:13.400
<v Speaker 4>I would rather pay the price for like Riley or Devers.

931
00:45:13.719 --> 00:45:16.480
<v Speaker 3>I think I would rather take Machado at the you know,

932
00:45:16.599 --> 00:45:19.159
<v Speaker 3>as the cheaper guy. Now you know, if they're all

933
00:45:19.360 --> 00:45:21.880
<v Speaker 3>three sitting there for me, I probably go the same

934
00:45:22.000 --> 00:45:26.199
<v Speaker 3>order that you said. I probably go Riley, Devers, then Machado.

935
00:45:26.639 --> 00:45:32.000
<v Speaker 3>But if it's like you know, I'm picking thirteen or twelve, right,

936
00:45:32.360 --> 00:45:34.760
<v Speaker 3>and I can take somebody else, and then all three

937
00:45:34.760 --> 00:45:36.840
<v Speaker 3>of those guys are available, and I'm hoping just one

938
00:45:36.880 --> 00:45:38.920
<v Speaker 3>of them makes it back to me in that glood

939
00:45:38.960 --> 00:45:41.559
<v Speaker 3>of picks that's six there, I would probably take the

940
00:45:41.679 --> 00:45:44.840
<v Speaker 3>risk and wait and see if Machado fell. And the

941
00:45:45.199 --> 00:45:49.239
<v Speaker 3>reason being is he doesn't have these crazy split concerns

942
00:45:49.400 --> 00:45:52.320
<v Speaker 3>that Devers does. He's not coming off an injury and

943
00:45:52.360 --> 00:45:57.519
<v Speaker 3>the ISO spiked enormously in the second half. You know,

944
00:45:58.000 --> 00:46:00.000
<v Speaker 3>I would I would love to see it with Tatsis

945
00:46:00.079 --> 00:46:04.400
<v Speaker 3>without Tatias, But first half his ISO was one fifty five,

946
00:46:04.480 --> 00:46:07.199
<v Speaker 3>second half two fifty seven, so he ended on a

947
00:46:07.239 --> 00:46:11.199
<v Speaker 3>heater as well, So I just I would probably be

948
00:46:11.320 --> 00:46:15.360
<v Speaker 3>willing to wait and take him. But again to your point,

949
00:46:15.519 --> 00:46:18.199
<v Speaker 3>they are very close and if I have my picks,

950
00:46:18.280 --> 00:46:19.480
<v Speaker 3>it's still going to be right.

951
00:46:19.719 --> 00:46:21.800
<v Speaker 4>I feel like Minchada has had these like struggles.

952
00:46:21.800 --> 00:46:25.280
<v Speaker 2>He's carried into the season a bit for multiple years,

953
00:46:25.320 --> 00:46:27.519
<v Speaker 2>like these swings, and it didn't really happen. He got

954
00:46:27.519 --> 00:46:30.840
<v Speaker 2>better in the second half. He hit enough homers at

955
00:46:30.840 --> 00:46:33.360
<v Speaker 2>home that there's not like you know, home road split

956
00:46:33.400 --> 00:46:36.280
<v Speaker 2>doesn't like massively stand out too. I will say, when

957
00:46:36.320 --> 00:46:41.199
<v Speaker 2>you look into like the hitting profile, it's becoming even more.

958
00:46:41.000 --> 00:46:43.119
<v Speaker 4>Of like you got, he's just a fastball hitter.

959
00:46:43.320 --> 00:46:45.519
<v Speaker 2>He saw way more sinkers this year, which are going

960
00:46:45.599 --> 00:46:48.880
<v Speaker 2>to on this qualify at fastballs, and he destroyed them,

961
00:46:49.400 --> 00:46:51.880
<v Speaker 2>and he saw less four seams. He was still hitting

962
00:46:51.920 --> 00:46:57.079
<v Speaker 2>those well. He massively struggled against sliders, cutters. You know,

963
00:46:57.280 --> 00:47:00.480
<v Speaker 2>the designation is probably in the fastball range. Like when

964
00:47:00.519 --> 00:47:02.280
<v Speaker 2>you just look at the profile. You see this guy

965
00:47:02.320 --> 00:47:05.159
<v Speaker 2>where you're like, oh, well, he doesn't hit really as

966
00:47:05.159 --> 00:47:08.079
<v Speaker 2>well against non fastball stuff. This isn't like Devers, who

967
00:47:08.079 --> 00:47:10.760
<v Speaker 2>has his baseline across the board. He's a little bit

968
00:47:10.800 --> 00:47:14.199
<v Speaker 2>more of a primary fastball hitter. So I wouldn't be

969
00:47:14.199 --> 00:47:17.119
<v Speaker 2>surprised if you see this pitch mixed change again, Like

970
00:47:17.199 --> 00:47:20.000
<v Speaker 2>he's gonna see less sinkers, You're going to probably see

971
00:47:20.039 --> 00:47:23.280
<v Speaker 2>more sliders, I would guess, you know, maybe more change

972
00:47:23.360 --> 00:47:26.199
<v Speaker 2>ups as well. Like that's kind of solely increased, and

973
00:47:26.239 --> 00:47:28.400
<v Speaker 2>I just I'm getting at I don't feel as great

974
00:47:28.400 --> 00:47:31.119
<v Speaker 2>about his batting average, even though it's stabilized. But to

975
00:47:31.199 --> 00:47:35.280
<v Speaker 2>his credit, zone contact percentage was the same. He didn't

976
00:47:35.400 --> 00:47:38.159
<v Speaker 2>chase more, he swung a little bit more at first pitches,

977
00:47:38.199 --> 00:47:42.320
<v Speaker 2>but like it's not a ton of crazy negatives or

978
00:47:42.320 --> 00:47:44.840
<v Speaker 2>anything like that. He hit two fifty six against lefties

979
00:47:44.880 --> 00:47:46.639
<v Speaker 2>to eighty against righty. He's like, this is just a

980
00:47:46.679 --> 00:47:49.199
<v Speaker 2>solid hitter and a really great lineup. But I feel

981
00:47:49.199 --> 00:47:52.639
<v Speaker 2>like there's some injury stuff or some mistiming. I say that,

982
00:47:52.679 --> 00:47:54.039
<v Speaker 2>but he's had almost.

983
00:47:53.719 --> 00:47:56.840
<v Speaker 4>Say ten games. I think he's just banged up one

984
00:47:56.880 --> 00:47:58.679
<v Speaker 4>hundred and fifty three. The last four years.

985
00:47:58.719 --> 00:48:01.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so I'm off on that, but I don't know.

986
00:48:01.039 --> 00:48:02.440
<v Speaker 2>I just feel like he's a little bit different than

987
00:48:02.480 --> 00:48:04.239
<v Speaker 2>the others, a little bit more power projection. I think

988
00:48:04.239 --> 00:48:07.440
<v Speaker 2>both are better hitters than Manny Machado, but he does

989
00:48:07.639 --> 00:48:09.239
<v Speaker 2>kind of belong in that range, all right. So now

990
00:48:09.239 --> 00:48:13.360
<v Speaker 2>this is like the really interesting core player range where

991
00:48:13.360 --> 00:48:17.760
<v Speaker 2>there is sleepers and stuff, Mark Vientos. Mark Viento's yes

992
00:48:17.840 --> 00:48:22.199
<v Speaker 2>is sixth on this of NFBC third base ranks, which

993
00:48:22.239 --> 00:48:25.159
<v Speaker 2>is wild to think about. Hit twenty seven homers last year,

994
00:48:25.760 --> 00:48:29.199
<v Speaker 2>two sixty six average, fifty eight runs. Didn't have like

995
00:48:29.280 --> 00:48:32.159
<v Speaker 2>enough games to you know, put up like other big

996
00:48:32.519 --> 00:48:34.760
<v Speaker 2>mounting counting stats, but it's like, if you played one

997
00:48:34.800 --> 00:48:37.079
<v Speaker 2>hundred and eleven games, you could have probably projected him

998
00:48:37.079 --> 00:48:40.199
<v Speaker 2>to be like seventy five runs ninety rbi. The batting

999
00:48:40.239 --> 00:48:44.079
<v Speaker 2>average was really good. Hard hit numbers are what stand out.

1000
00:48:44.159 --> 00:48:47.280
<v Speaker 2>Hard hit barrel average, ex velocity x slug, They're all

1001
00:48:47.800 --> 00:48:51.719
<v Speaker 2>well well above average, horrifically bad wiff and K percentages.

1002
00:48:51.719 --> 00:48:54.480
<v Speaker 2>He struck out twenty nine point seven percent of the time,

1003
00:48:54.840 --> 00:48:59.599
<v Speaker 2>but great amazing combo fourteen point one percent barrel rate,

1004
00:49:00.360 --> 00:49:03.199
<v Speaker 2>double digit launch angle, and a forty six percent hard

1005
00:49:03.239 --> 00:49:07.880
<v Speaker 2>hit rate. I fen love when I see that. It

1006
00:49:08.039 --> 00:49:11.599
<v Speaker 2>is my favorite thing on the planet. But kind of

1007
00:49:11.719 --> 00:49:16.639
<v Speaker 2>in the Machado world, Vientos. He's not a sole fastball hitter,

1008
00:49:16.679 --> 00:49:19.119
<v Speaker 2>but he's a pretty big fastball hitter. He had I

1009
00:49:19.159 --> 00:49:21.519
<v Speaker 2>remember doing this in my ride up. He's the only

1010
00:49:21.599 --> 00:49:24.880
<v Speaker 2>guy I've seen maybe we had one other player so far, Fogs.

1011
00:49:25.760 --> 00:49:28.280
<v Speaker 2>He is the only one that his number one pitch

1012
00:49:28.360 --> 00:49:32.000
<v Speaker 2>type was not a foreseen fastball. More sliders were thrown

1013
00:49:32.000 --> 00:49:36.039
<v Speaker 2>against him. He only saw twenty one percent foreseing fastballs.

1014
00:49:36.079 --> 00:49:39.559
<v Speaker 2>That's insane for any player that is played one hundred

1015
00:49:39.599 --> 00:49:43.599
<v Speaker 2>or mores Toronto. Yeah, twenty three percent sliders, which, by

1016
00:49:43.599 --> 00:49:46.159
<v Speaker 2>the way, he only hit one seventy five. Why was

1017
00:49:46.199 --> 00:49:48.719
<v Speaker 2>the fastball there? Because he hit three nineteen against them

1018
00:49:48.719 --> 00:49:51.760
<v Speaker 2>and a three hundred XBA sinkers third.

1019
00:49:51.559 --> 00:49:53.079
<v Speaker 4>Most hit three twenty nine.

1020
00:49:53.800 --> 00:49:56.000
<v Speaker 2>Its cutters three fifty if those are going to count

1021
00:49:56.000 --> 00:49:59.239
<v Speaker 2>everything else one fifty two sweepers, one ninety four curve.

1022
00:49:59.320 --> 00:50:01.400
<v Speaker 4>So that that's where the hole is.

1023
00:50:01.559 --> 00:50:04.639
<v Speaker 2>Is like, people are going to attack him with off

1024
00:50:04.719 --> 00:50:07.800
<v Speaker 2>speed stuff. But if but to his credit, and I

1025
00:50:07.800 --> 00:50:10.119
<v Speaker 2>know I'm talking like a lot lot here, he walked

1026
00:50:10.119 --> 00:50:12.880
<v Speaker 2>a decent amount if he can push counts and force

1027
00:50:12.960 --> 00:50:16.079
<v Speaker 2>fastball counts. This is why he's such a freaking menace.

1028
00:50:16.519 --> 00:50:18.719
<v Speaker 2>I see him kind of like a pee alonzo guy,

1029
00:50:18.760 --> 00:50:20.280
<v Speaker 2>and then you look at the guys in front of him.

1030
00:50:20.320 --> 00:50:23.719
<v Speaker 2>There's so much to like about him. And lastly, got

1031
00:50:23.719 --> 00:50:26.400
<v Speaker 2>Soto hitting in front of him. Yeah, you're gonna have

1032
00:50:26.599 --> 00:50:29.480
<v Speaker 2>You're gonna have teams wanting to be more aggressive to him,

1033
00:50:29.559 --> 00:50:33.159
<v Speaker 2>which could equate to more fastball usage, and that's where

1034
00:50:33.199 --> 00:50:34.599
<v Speaker 2>some big numbers could come into play.

1035
00:50:34.840 --> 00:50:36.239
<v Speaker 4>And it seems like.

1036
00:50:37.679 --> 00:50:40.960
<v Speaker 3>They he kind of figured out, and they figured out

1037
00:50:41.000 --> 00:50:43.000
<v Speaker 3>what was going on with him by throwing him more

1038
00:50:43.000 --> 00:50:45.480
<v Speaker 3>breaking balls. And it seems like that happened in the

1039
00:50:45.519 --> 00:50:50.679
<v Speaker 3>second half because the average went way down two ninety

1040
00:50:50.760 --> 00:50:53.440
<v Speaker 3>one in the first half to two forty seven in

1041
00:50:53.480 --> 00:50:56.400
<v Speaker 3>the second half, but the home run rate went up.

1042
00:50:56.440 --> 00:51:00.519
<v Speaker 3>He had twelve first half homers, fifteen second half homers

1043
00:51:00.760 --> 00:51:05.119
<v Speaker 3>in forty nine fewer abs. He didn't have the biggest difference.

1044
00:51:05.159 --> 00:51:07.960
<v Speaker 3>It wasn't hundreds of that bats different between his first

1045
00:51:08.000 --> 00:51:10.880
<v Speaker 3>and second half, but he sold out for power in

1046
00:51:10.920 --> 00:51:13.719
<v Speaker 3>the second half. So, like you said, if they put

1047
00:51:13.760 --> 00:51:17.400
<v Speaker 3>him in an advantageous position where he's hitting in front

1048
00:51:17.400 --> 00:51:20.400
<v Speaker 3>of Soto or you know, someone else, who knows who

1049
00:51:20.480 --> 00:51:22.840
<v Speaker 3>else the Mets are going to go out and pay

1050
00:51:22.920 --> 00:51:27.159
<v Speaker 3>for this season, then you know he should be seeing

1051
00:51:27.199 --> 00:51:30.599
<v Speaker 3>more fastballs and hitting the ball harder and better. So

1052
00:51:31.639 --> 00:51:34.679
<v Speaker 3>fingers crossed that that happens for him. But you know,

1053
00:51:34.840 --> 00:51:38.559
<v Speaker 3>even him selling out for power in the second half

1054
00:51:38.599 --> 00:51:40.960
<v Speaker 3>is what it looks like. The average only went down

1055
00:51:40.960 --> 00:51:42.760
<v Speaker 3>to two forty seven. I mean two ninety one two

1056
00:51:42.800 --> 00:51:45.119
<v Speaker 3>forty seven is a huge difference, but two forty seven

1057
00:51:45.239 --> 00:51:47.599
<v Speaker 3>is very livable if you're going to hit forty homers.

1058
00:51:47.880 --> 00:51:53.519
<v Speaker 3>So Vientos has this is a great opportunity. It's not

1059
00:51:53.519 --> 00:51:56.960
<v Speaker 3>a surprise, but he's a top six third baseman right now.

1060
00:51:58.480 --> 00:51:59.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I want I wanted to look at it was

1061
00:52:00.800 --> 00:52:03.559
<v Speaker 2>slow in my computer down that's having multiple instances of

1062
00:52:03.559 --> 00:52:06.119
<v Speaker 2>fan grafts up was uh because you can't I don't

1063
00:52:06.159 --> 00:52:07.920
<v Speaker 2>see this on somevant. I wanted to see the k

1064
00:52:08.000 --> 00:52:12.239
<v Speaker 2>percentage by month breakdown for Vento's and I.

1065
00:52:12.199 --> 00:52:15.320
<v Speaker 4>Can look that up. I already have it. Oh yeah, okay,

1066
00:52:15.360 --> 00:52:15.920
<v Speaker 4>got it.

1067
00:52:16.039 --> 00:52:19.039
<v Speaker 2>Essentially got worse every single month. So he started out

1068
00:52:19.039 --> 00:52:22.000
<v Speaker 2>with a twenty one percent in May love it and

1069
00:52:22.039 --> 00:52:25.039
<v Speaker 2>he had a three to ten batting average. Then he

1070
00:52:25.079 --> 00:52:26.760
<v Speaker 2>went to June where he had a twenty three percent

1071
00:52:26.880 --> 00:52:29.880
<v Speaker 2>K percentage love it to sixty five batting average. Then

1072
00:52:29.880 --> 00:52:32.760
<v Speaker 2>in July thirty two percent, but he still had a

1073
00:52:32.800 --> 00:52:36.719
<v Speaker 2>two eighty three, thirty one percent in August two still

1074
00:52:36.760 --> 00:52:39.679
<v Speaker 2>two sixty three, which is all great, and then thirty

1075
00:52:39.800 --> 00:52:42.320
<v Speaker 2>six point nine percent in so it almost got worse

1076
00:52:42.440 --> 00:52:46.559
<v Speaker 2>every single month, which that is a concern. But I

1077
00:52:46.559 --> 00:52:49.280
<v Speaker 2>will say the positive is that he kept hitting for average.

1078
00:52:49.280 --> 00:52:53.039
<v Speaker 2>We've seen guys have big k rates and like continue going.

1079
00:52:53.360 --> 00:52:56.000
<v Speaker 2>But the unfortunate side there is that it got worse

1080
00:52:56.039 --> 00:52:57.559
<v Speaker 2>every single month for Viento's so.

1081
00:52:57.840 --> 00:52:58.679
<v Speaker 4>You gotta be careful.

1082
00:52:58.800 --> 00:53:01.880
<v Speaker 2>His ADP though it's like around ninety so if you

1083
00:53:01.880 --> 00:53:03.760
<v Speaker 2>get him outside the top one hundred, like he's going

1084
00:53:03.840 --> 00:53:06.280
<v Speaker 2>to be one of the biggest targets for chasing power

1085
00:53:06.320 --> 00:53:09.440
<v Speaker 2>there is. But I am worried that there's some regressional stuff,

1086
00:53:09.599 --> 00:53:12.239
<v Speaker 2>you know, I just closed it. What are his projections

1087
00:53:12.239 --> 00:53:17.880
<v Speaker 2>like two fifty thirty five one hundred RBI, I can, by.

1088
00:53:17.800 --> 00:53:23.400
<v Speaker 3>The way right now two forty eight thirty three ninety five, So.

1089
00:53:23.360 --> 00:53:24.920
<v Speaker 4>I'm essentially right on that.

1090
00:53:25.079 --> 00:53:27.800
<v Speaker 2>I love that that's a top one hundred pick, no doubt.

1091
00:53:27.840 --> 00:53:30.480
<v Speaker 2>I will try to take Mark Mark Vento's everywhere that

1092
00:53:30.519 --> 00:53:31.039
<v Speaker 2>I can.

1093
00:53:31.519 --> 00:53:33.760
<v Speaker 4>Just because of the what he was able to do

1094
00:53:33.760 --> 00:53:34.320
<v Speaker 4>as a hitter.

1095
00:53:34.239 --> 00:53:38.280
<v Speaker 2>Last year, assuming progression and the hitters that are hopefully

1096
00:53:38.280 --> 00:53:39.559
<v Speaker 2>in front of him again, I don't think it's a

1097
00:53:39.559 --> 00:53:42.400
<v Speaker 2>lock he hits three. I think like Joe like thinks that.

1098
00:53:42.519 --> 00:53:46.000
<v Speaker 2>But if they go get Christian Walker, Bianto's not hitting three, right,

1099
00:53:46.199 --> 00:53:48.840
<v Speaker 2>hit four? Ring Alonzo back right?

1100
00:53:48.920 --> 00:53:49.079
<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

1101
00:53:49.119 --> 00:53:52.519
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, maybe he could hit three and Alonso hits four

1102
00:53:52.679 --> 00:53:54.760
<v Speaker 2>just from a contact perspective, but I doubt it because

1103
00:53:54.760 --> 00:53:58.239
<v Speaker 2>he's a thirty percent k guy. But Vento's is very exciting.

1104
00:53:58.280 --> 00:54:01.199
<v Speaker 2>Another one of these in the sleeper realm Jordan Westburg.

1105
00:54:01.239 --> 00:54:04.599
<v Speaker 2>He's right there with Viento's coming off of eighteen homer

1106
00:54:04.679 --> 00:54:07.880
<v Speaker 2>six dolen bases, two sixty four batting average. But why

1107
00:54:07.920 --> 00:54:11.840
<v Speaker 2>do you really like him? That slider side of Savant

1108
00:54:11.920 --> 00:54:14.840
<v Speaker 2>It is red. It is top cently fifteen to twenty

1109
00:54:14.880 --> 00:54:17.199
<v Speaker 2>percent of the league across the board. Hard hit barrel

1110
00:54:17.440 --> 00:54:20.239
<v Speaker 2>x slug had eleven percent, eleven point eight percent barrel

1111
00:54:20.320 --> 00:54:23.960
<v Speaker 2>rate awesome, forty six percent hard hit rate awesome, thirteen

1112
00:54:24.039 --> 00:54:26.679
<v Speaker 2>launch angle. Those are the things I'm talking about Ventos with,

1113
00:54:26.960 --> 00:54:29.880
<v Speaker 2>except he only strikes out twenty one percent of the time,

1114
00:54:30.119 --> 00:54:34.719
<v Speaker 2>had a ninety one percent average exivelocity. There's a lot

1115
00:54:34.760 --> 00:54:38.079
<v Speaker 2>to like about in this profile of Jordan Westburg overall,

1116
00:54:38.440 --> 00:54:42.960
<v Speaker 2>and in that offense in general. There's a lot of huge,

1117
00:54:43.000 --> 00:54:45.519
<v Speaker 2>massive upside. I will throw this one thing as you're

1118
00:54:45.559 --> 00:54:46.719
<v Speaker 2>going to break it down, though.

1119
00:54:47.079 --> 00:54:48.480
<v Speaker 4>Huge split issue.

1120
00:54:48.559 --> 00:54:50.519
<v Speaker 2>He hit two seventy one in the first half with

1121
00:54:50.639 --> 00:54:53.679
<v Speaker 2>fifteen homers, only had seventy three at bats in the

1122
00:54:53.719 --> 00:54:57.320
<v Speaker 2>next portion three homers, two thirty three batting average. But

1123
00:54:57.719 --> 00:54:59.639
<v Speaker 2>there's a lot of profile stuff for Westburg.

1124
00:55:00.159 --> 00:55:02.760
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, three to zero three at home, two twenty eight

1125
00:55:02.840 --> 00:55:07.679
<v Speaker 3>away also, which it was pretty surprising, but weirdly nine

1126
00:55:07.719 --> 00:55:13.360
<v Speaker 3>homers at home and nine homers away for his eighteen homers,

1127
00:55:13.400 --> 00:55:16.639
<v Speaker 3>which is strange, especially when he's hitting almost eighty points

1128
00:55:16.639 --> 00:55:20.800
<v Speaker 3>worse here. So yeah, that was pretty surprising. Obviously, he

1129
00:55:20.840 --> 00:55:22.360
<v Speaker 3>missed a big chunk of the year with a broken

1130
00:55:22.400 --> 00:55:25.039
<v Speaker 3>hand as well, so we didn't get the full year

1131
00:55:25.360 --> 00:55:27.480
<v Speaker 3>from him or the scope. As you said, not a

1132
00:55:27.480 --> 00:55:29.719
<v Speaker 3>lot of games in the second half there, but he

1133
00:55:29.760 --> 00:55:32.039
<v Speaker 3>came back at the end of the year, so health

1134
00:55:32.079 --> 00:55:35.480
<v Speaker 3>should be way back up by the time spring Chang

1135
00:55:35.559 --> 00:55:36.320
<v Speaker 3>rules around here.

1136
00:55:37.119 --> 00:55:40.079
<v Speaker 2>Only other last little things. Pretty good batting average kind

1137
00:55:40.079 --> 00:55:42.480
<v Speaker 2>of across the board on different pitch types.

1138
00:55:42.519 --> 00:55:43.360
<v Speaker 4>So I love to.

1139
00:55:43.320 --> 00:55:47.880
<v Speaker 2>See a guy that has has the ability to not

1140
00:55:47.960 --> 00:55:50.960
<v Speaker 2>get wrecked by one pitch. I'll also say it is

1141
00:55:52.280 --> 00:55:58.000
<v Speaker 2>almost unanimous across the board of positive aggression on pitch type.

1142
00:55:58.079 --> 00:56:00.480
<v Speaker 2>So higher expected batting average is what I mean by

1143
00:56:00.480 --> 00:56:03.800
<v Speaker 2>that than what he did. Sweeper almost twenty batting average

1144
00:56:03.800 --> 00:56:07.519
<v Speaker 2>points sinkers, sixty batting average point sliders, you know, point

1145
00:56:07.599 --> 00:56:10.480
<v Speaker 2>zero six fastball exact same, he hit three or six

1146
00:56:10.519 --> 00:56:14.119
<v Speaker 2>against fastballs XBA the exact same. And his three biggest

1147
00:56:14.119 --> 00:56:16.880
<v Speaker 2>heart pitch types he saw, which were the only three

1148
00:56:16.920 --> 00:56:19.360
<v Speaker 2>of double digit percentage, He had a four year higher

1149
00:56:19.400 --> 00:56:22.159
<v Speaker 2>hard hit rate. Again, so like that's really really good.

1150
00:56:23.760 --> 00:56:25.519
<v Speaker 2>Chase rates a little bit high, his own contacts a

1151
00:56:25.519 --> 00:56:28.960
<v Speaker 2>little bit low. But I think with that hard hit profile,

1152
00:56:29.000 --> 00:56:31.480
<v Speaker 2>do you have his projection? I'm gonna guess it is

1153
00:56:31.599 --> 00:56:40.280
<v Speaker 2>like two sixty five twenty eight homers with ten stolen bases.

1154
00:56:41.920 --> 00:56:46.920
<v Speaker 3>Two sixty three excuse me, to sixty one nineteen homers,

1155
00:56:46.960 --> 00:56:48.400
<v Speaker 3>eight stolen bases.

1156
00:56:48.320 --> 00:56:49.480
<v Speaker 4>Give me upside.

1157
00:56:49.519 --> 00:56:52.480
<v Speaker 2>I'm apply I like upside for Jordan Westburg there he

1158
00:56:52.559 --> 00:56:54.760
<v Speaker 2>will probably also be on a lot of my teams.

1159
00:56:55.239 --> 00:56:57.440
<v Speaker 3>Just both that you gotta but you're not gonna have

1160
00:56:57.480 --> 00:56:59.280
<v Speaker 3>all of these third bags, all of them, just saying,

1161
00:56:59.320 --> 00:57:01.119
<v Speaker 3>especially all these top ten third baseman.

1162
00:57:01.159 --> 00:57:03.920
<v Speaker 4>But it's clear you like picking out of this group. Yeah,

1163
00:57:03.920 --> 00:57:04.400
<v Speaker 4>I don't mind that.

1164
00:57:04.440 --> 00:57:06.519
<v Speaker 2>And this is kind of back to the strategy of

1165
00:57:06.519 --> 00:57:09.159
<v Speaker 2>the position where it's like, hey, if I can do

1166
00:57:09.239 --> 00:57:11.360
<v Speaker 2>other stuff early on, I could take you know, an outfielder,

1167
00:57:11.400 --> 00:57:13.079
<v Speaker 2>I can take a picture, I can take an infield

1168
00:57:13.079 --> 00:57:14.800
<v Speaker 2>I could do a couple of things. And then if

1169
00:57:14.800 --> 00:57:16.920
<v Speaker 2>my third base ends up becoming a guy like Vantos

1170
00:57:17.000 --> 00:57:19.440
<v Speaker 2>or Westburgh out there, like just coming to the top

1171
00:57:19.440 --> 00:57:23.199
<v Speaker 2>one hundred, I'm I'm gucci, I'm good. I'm totally good.

1172
00:57:23.679 --> 00:57:25.360
<v Speaker 2>Next guy up is Royce Lewis, who had a lot

1173
00:57:25.360 --> 00:57:27.239
<v Speaker 2>of upside for a lot of people. Did his home

1174
00:57:27.320 --> 00:57:31.079
<v Speaker 2>run thing again, it slowed down. He did hit sixteen homers,

1175
00:57:31.119 --> 00:57:33.920
<v Speaker 2>which was a career high, but he again could not

1176
00:57:34.239 --> 00:57:37.039
<v Speaker 2>surpass three hundred at bats in a season. He only

1177
00:57:37.119 --> 00:57:40.119
<v Speaker 2>hit two thirty three this go round. The batting average

1178
00:57:40.159 --> 00:57:43.320
<v Speaker 2>really sunk. Expected batting average was a little bit higher.

1179
00:57:44.599 --> 00:57:46.960
<v Speaker 2>The swampage kind of all over the board. Some of

1180
00:57:47.000 --> 00:57:50.639
<v Speaker 2>the I think the average is not supported. But he

1181
00:57:50.679 --> 00:57:53.280
<v Speaker 2>had a good barrel rate, incredible launch angle, gets the

1182
00:57:53.320 --> 00:57:55.760
<v Speaker 2>ball in the air. The problem is he doesn't tap

1183
00:57:55.800 --> 00:57:59.599
<v Speaker 2>into consistency thirty seven percent, hard hit rate stinks, eighty

1184
00:57:59.639 --> 00:58:04.920
<v Speaker 2>seven average X velocity not good. And he's very injury prone.

1185
00:58:05.000 --> 00:58:07.280
<v Speaker 2>So those are a couple of the takeaways with royce Lewis.

1186
00:58:07.320 --> 00:58:09.400
<v Speaker 2>The cream has been cut.

1187
00:58:09.199 --> 00:58:09.800
<v Speaker 4>Off the top.

1188
00:58:09.880 --> 00:58:13.639
<v Speaker 3>Oh yeah, yeah, I mean I think you know me

1189
00:58:13.800 --> 00:58:16.400
<v Speaker 3>in the way that I draft, I just I will

1190
00:58:16.440 --> 00:58:20.360
<v Speaker 3>have no shares of royce Lewis. I cannot take a

1191
00:58:20.400 --> 00:58:24.280
<v Speaker 3>player that doesn't play. It drives me insane. You know,

1192
00:58:24.480 --> 00:58:27.360
<v Speaker 3>It's just something the older I get, the more entrenched

1193
00:58:27.400 --> 00:58:28.880
<v Speaker 3>into this I get.

1194
00:58:29.440 --> 00:58:31.400
<v Speaker 4>But you know he was.

1195
00:58:31.440 --> 00:58:33.239
<v Speaker 3>He was way worse than the second half coming back

1196
00:58:33.280 --> 00:58:35.519
<v Speaker 3>off the injuries as well, two ninety two in the

1197
00:58:35.559 --> 00:58:38.199
<v Speaker 3>first half, two of seven in the second half. The

1198
00:58:38.360 --> 00:58:41.599
<v Speaker 3>quad and groin injuries. Also might be getting a move

1199
00:58:41.639 --> 00:58:43.719
<v Speaker 3>of positions. They've talked about a little bit of maybe

1200
00:58:43.719 --> 00:58:45.880
<v Speaker 3>moving in the second He played I think two games

1201
00:58:45.920 --> 00:58:47.920
<v Speaker 3>at the end of the season there, and they've been

1202
00:58:47.960 --> 00:58:50.719
<v Speaker 3>sniffing around, you know, like Alex Bregman in a couple

1203
00:58:50.719 --> 00:58:55.159
<v Speaker 3>of third base options as well. So I just don't

1204
00:58:55.239 --> 00:58:57.880
<v Speaker 3>think I'm going to be rostering Royce Lewis. Is that

1205
00:58:58.679 --> 00:59:01.039
<v Speaker 3>at this point? Is that a fair take or is

1206
00:59:01.079 --> 00:59:03.559
<v Speaker 3>this a Bogmann is an old man? There's too much

1207
00:59:03.639 --> 00:59:04.960
<v Speaker 3>upside for royce Lewis take.

1208
00:59:06.199 --> 00:59:09.920
<v Speaker 2>I think based on the players he's around, it's fine. Yeah,

1209
00:59:10.280 --> 00:59:12.119
<v Speaker 2>I love that he doesn't cost what he did in

1210
00:59:12.119 --> 00:59:15.079
<v Speaker 2>the past, right, but we're this is the eighth third

1211
00:59:15.119 --> 00:59:17.599
<v Speaker 2>baseman on this board here so far, and he's still

1212
00:59:17.599 --> 00:59:19.679
<v Speaker 2>sandwich between guys with a bunch of upside.

1213
00:59:19.760 --> 00:59:22.239
<v Speaker 4>I really don't ride around pick so.

1214
00:59:22.760 --> 00:59:25.639
<v Speaker 2>I still think like he's just still trying to figure

1215
00:59:25.679 --> 00:59:28.679
<v Speaker 2>it all out. Like I'm looking at his uh swing metrics.

1216
00:59:29.039 --> 00:59:32.039
<v Speaker 2>He's got a long swing that's fast. It's like it's

1217
00:59:32.119 --> 00:59:34.719
<v Speaker 2>quite a bit above average seventy one point five. Average

1218
00:59:34.800 --> 00:59:36.920
<v Speaker 2>is the average bat speed, it's seventy three point three.

1219
00:59:37.239 --> 00:59:40.559
<v Speaker 2>But usually what you like to see are like smaller swings.

1220
00:59:41.079 --> 00:59:43.440
<v Speaker 2>It's seven point seven, which is quite long. And the

1221
00:59:43.480 --> 00:59:45.760
<v Speaker 2>reason I say this is like I see this unique

1222
00:59:45.800 --> 00:59:51.119
<v Speaker 2>thing going on where you know, the the fast swings

1223
00:59:52.239 --> 00:59:56.079
<v Speaker 2>or sometimes you'll see these like longer swings that are slow,

1224
00:59:56.199 --> 00:59:58.320
<v Speaker 2>and that gets the secondary pitches to keep the bat

1225
00:59:58.360 --> 01:00:00.559
<v Speaker 2>in the zone, and then you're gonna see these shorter

1226
01:00:00.679 --> 01:00:02.719
<v Speaker 2>swings with like high velocity.

1227
01:00:03.000 --> 01:00:04.000
<v Speaker 4>So it's just to destroy.

1228
01:00:04.239 --> 01:00:06.360
<v Speaker 2>He's got this long swing that he pitches really high,

1229
01:00:06.400 --> 01:00:08.880
<v Speaker 2>and he struggles against forcene fastballs, but then he's good

1230
01:00:08.880 --> 01:00:11.679
<v Speaker 2>against some secondary stuff, so and he gets the ball

1231
01:00:11.719 --> 01:00:13.880
<v Speaker 2>in the air too, by the way, and then you

1232
01:00:13.960 --> 01:00:16.159
<v Speaker 2>kind of come back to like, he's not hitting it

1233
01:00:16.239 --> 01:00:18.440
<v Speaker 2>super hard. I wonder if that's kind of a swing

1234
01:00:18.440 --> 01:00:20.559
<v Speaker 2>mechanism that he wants to be able to cheat for

1235
01:00:20.639 --> 01:00:23.480
<v Speaker 2>some secondary stuff. He only hit two or three against

1236
01:00:23.480 --> 01:00:25.960
<v Speaker 2>four scene with a two to eleven expected batting average.

1237
01:00:26.360 --> 01:00:29.599
<v Speaker 2>It's not great, so I wonder if he's still learning

1238
01:00:29.679 --> 01:00:31.199
<v Speaker 2>the pitch type of who he is. He has a

1239
01:00:31.199 --> 01:00:34.199
<v Speaker 2>good zone contact rate, a horrifically bad chase rate. I

1240
01:00:34.199 --> 01:00:37.639
<v Speaker 2>would throw out there, But I see Royce Lewis as

1241
01:00:37.679 --> 01:00:40.480
<v Speaker 2>a thirty homer guy if he plays a full season.

1242
01:00:40.760 --> 01:00:42.519
<v Speaker 2>I just don't trust the batting average. I think it

1243
01:00:42.599 --> 01:00:45.920
<v Speaker 2>might be like two forty five thirty homers if he

1244
01:00:45.960 --> 01:00:48.000
<v Speaker 2>could play a full season, but I'm not sold that

1245
01:00:48.079 --> 01:00:49.840
<v Speaker 2>he can. And I just feel like you can get

1246
01:00:49.920 --> 01:00:52.199
<v Speaker 2>similar upside to a lot of the players that he's around.

1247
01:00:52.239 --> 01:00:53.840
<v Speaker 2>So I'm probably a little bit of a pass on

1248
01:00:53.920 --> 01:00:56.760
<v Speaker 2>his cost as well, just if we're we are taking

1249
01:00:56.880 --> 01:00:59.719
<v Speaker 2>talking about ranks, But I just see these mechanisms of

1250
01:00:59.800 --> 01:01:04.320
<v Speaker 2>like I'm not sure I can't quantify exactly who he is.

1251
01:01:04.400 --> 01:01:06.599
<v Speaker 3>Like the batman he goes on a heater and is

1252
01:01:06.639 --> 01:01:09.239
<v Speaker 3>the best player in baseball for two weeks last two years.

1253
01:01:09.280 --> 01:01:12.320
<v Speaker 2>Right, Yeah, that's awesome, But like he has lower contact rates,

1254
01:01:12.320 --> 01:01:14.800
<v Speaker 2>a squared up in blast because it's a longer swing,

1255
01:01:14.880 --> 01:01:17.639
<v Speaker 2>but it's fast and he doesn't hit fastballs really well,

1256
01:01:18.079 --> 01:01:20.679
<v Speaker 2>and the long swing probably speaks to second. Like it's

1257
01:01:20.679 --> 01:01:24.480
<v Speaker 2>all these things that mix around that that tiles me like, oh,

1258
01:01:24.519 --> 01:01:27.199
<v Speaker 2>that is a guy that's going to lock into some inconsistency.

1259
01:01:27.000 --> 01:01:31.280
<v Speaker 3>They got him at two fifty two, twenty six homers,

1260
01:01:31.320 --> 01:01:34.760
<v Speaker 3>six dole bases, sixty nine runs, and seventy six rbi,

1261
01:01:35.280 --> 01:01:36.679
<v Speaker 3>one hundred and thirty four games.

1262
01:01:37.000 --> 01:01:42.159
<v Speaker 2>What was batting average two fifty two. It's solid, it's decent.

1263
01:01:42.519 --> 01:01:44.559
<v Speaker 2>I mean, compare them, you know, when you're comparing against

1264
01:01:44.599 --> 01:01:46.280
<v Speaker 2>the other guys. There's a couple others on the back

1265
01:01:46.400 --> 01:01:49.679
<v Speaker 2>end here, Junior Camenaro, so camin Aro has a smaller

1266
01:01:49.719 --> 01:01:52.079
<v Speaker 2>sample size for us to work from. He ended up

1267
01:01:52.079 --> 01:01:53.760
<v Speaker 2>having like one hundred and sixty five at bats, hit

1268
01:01:53.800 --> 01:01:57.079
<v Speaker 2>six homers two forty eight. Obviously was a monster in

1269
01:01:57.159 --> 01:02:00.519
<v Speaker 2>the miners or the great batting average things to here

1270
01:02:01.400 --> 01:02:04.559
<v Speaker 2>eleven point eight percent barrel, forty five percent hard hit rate.

1271
01:02:04.679 --> 01:02:06.960
<v Speaker 2>Those two screamed to me. He did not get the

1272
01:02:06.960 --> 01:02:10.519
<v Speaker 2>ball in the air, very common of rookies, not worried

1273
01:02:10.559 --> 01:02:15.000
<v Speaker 2>about it. Expected batting average is lower though his strikeout

1274
01:02:15.079 --> 01:02:17.320
<v Speaker 2>rate was only twenty one percent, but the expected is

1275
01:02:17.360 --> 01:02:19.519
<v Speaker 2>quite a bit lower. I think because of just maybe

1276
01:02:19.760 --> 01:02:23.000
<v Speaker 2>overall inconsistent hitting. But just want to come back here.

1277
01:02:23.800 --> 01:02:27.800
<v Speaker 2>Twenty three pitch types. He saw the most sinkers, sliders,

1278
01:02:27.920 --> 01:02:32.280
<v Speaker 2>and then foreseen fastballs. He hit under and had an

1279
01:02:32.440 --> 01:02:36.239
<v Speaker 2>XBA under two hundred. Both sinkers and sliders. He hit

1280
01:02:36.280 --> 01:02:39.360
<v Speaker 2>three sixty one against fastballs. He was legit only a

1281
01:02:39.519 --> 01:02:42.199
<v Speaker 2>four seam fastball hitter, So that's not a true fastball

1282
01:02:42.280 --> 01:02:46.760
<v Speaker 2>hitter four seam fastballs, so he's got to just progress.

1283
01:02:46.920 --> 01:02:47.360
<v Speaker 4>Overall.

1284
01:02:47.440 --> 01:02:49.400
<v Speaker 2>He could not pull the ball, and that might just

1285
01:02:49.480 --> 01:02:53.199
<v Speaker 2>be you know, his young dude learning into his game.

1286
01:02:53.239 --> 01:02:55.519
<v Speaker 2>But I think the raw tools are there, and we've

1287
01:02:55.519 --> 01:02:59.599
<v Speaker 2>seen it in the minor league just overall levels. You know,

1288
01:02:59.639 --> 01:03:01.960
<v Speaker 2>like him shine and not strike out and hit the

1289
01:03:02.000 --> 01:03:05.239
<v Speaker 2>ball really really hard. He's gotten insanely fast swing. It's

1290
01:03:05.280 --> 01:03:08.880
<v Speaker 2>one of the fastest in the league. But eight point

1291
01:03:09.119 --> 01:03:13.320
<v Speaker 2>three length, that's one of that's Nolan Aronado bad. So

1292
01:03:13.400 --> 01:03:15.599
<v Speaker 2>that's like we're getting back to Royce Lewis stuff like

1293
01:03:15.679 --> 01:03:18.079
<v Speaker 2>I don't, I don't. I mean, it's so fast. I

1294
01:03:18.079 --> 01:03:20.079
<v Speaker 2>think he's making up for a little bit more. He's

1295
01:03:20.119 --> 01:03:23.559
<v Speaker 2>just got to learn to hit. He's gonna get tested

1296
01:03:23.880 --> 01:03:26.079
<v Speaker 2>this year if you're only hitting four seams.

1297
01:03:26.320 --> 01:03:29.960
<v Speaker 3>I mean, west Bergen and Royce Lewis are old men

1298
01:03:30.159 --> 01:03:33.199
<v Speaker 3>compared to Camon Arrow twenty one years old.

1299
01:03:33.320 --> 01:03:37.639
<v Speaker 4>So we're just we're just simple men, and we're just

1300
01:03:37.679 --> 01:03:39.320
<v Speaker 4>simple men women.

1301
01:03:40.679 --> 01:03:43.119
<v Speaker 3>Also, like he did have I mean, he only had

1302
01:03:43.159 --> 01:03:45.719
<v Speaker 3>twenty six at bats first lefties, but he hit three

1303
01:03:45.800 --> 01:03:49.280
<v Speaker 3>forty six against him two thirty verst righties. I think,

1304
01:03:49.519 --> 01:03:53.199
<v Speaker 3>you know, to your point, he's figuring it out. You're

1305
01:03:53.239 --> 01:03:57.320
<v Speaker 3>gonna have wild inconsistencies from a guy this young and

1306
01:03:57.920 --> 01:03:59.639
<v Speaker 3>trying to figure it out, especially trying to figure it

1307
01:03:59.639 --> 01:04:03.400
<v Speaker 3>out at major league level. So probably should have been

1308
01:04:03.480 --> 01:04:06.480
<v Speaker 3>up way earlier to get more experience. So it's not

1309
01:04:06.639 --> 01:04:10.519
<v Speaker 3>all a feeling out process this year, but such his life,

1310
01:04:10.519 --> 01:04:11.360
<v Speaker 3>he just didn't get it.

1311
01:04:11.599 --> 01:04:14.039
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you said something really important that I just want

1312
01:04:14.039 --> 01:04:17.719
<v Speaker 2>to harkun for one second is that I'm not gonna like, actually,

1313
01:04:17.760 --> 01:04:19.800
<v Speaker 2>even though I gave it to you guys, I personally

1314
01:04:20.119 --> 01:04:21.760
<v Speaker 2>I'm not going to like read too much into like

1315
01:04:21.760 --> 01:04:24.440
<v Speaker 2>what he did against sinkers and sliders and stuff like that,

1316
01:04:24.679 --> 01:04:27.559
<v Speaker 2>or you know, chase rate was high, and I'm not

1317
01:04:27.599 --> 01:04:29.760
<v Speaker 2>going to actually hyper focus on that because I think

1318
01:04:29.760 --> 01:04:33.480
<v Speaker 2>there's so much change that happens when now you're going

1319
01:04:33.559 --> 01:04:35.800
<v Speaker 2>to spend an off season with the major league camp

1320
01:04:35.840 --> 01:04:38.599
<v Speaker 2>and hitters and analysis of swing and stuff like that.

1321
01:04:38.800 --> 01:04:40.960
<v Speaker 2>What I care about are the fundamentals. And the fundamentals

1322
01:04:41.000 --> 01:04:44.239
<v Speaker 2>are there's great barrel, there's really good hard hit. He's

1323
01:04:44.360 --> 01:04:47.519
<v Speaker 2>not striking out a ton, and as he makes and

1324
01:04:47.559 --> 01:04:49.440
<v Speaker 2>he had a one to sixteen point three max ev

1325
01:04:49.639 --> 01:04:52.880
<v Speaker 2>as he learns, he's just he's going to make much

1326
01:04:52.920 --> 01:04:54.679
<v Speaker 2>better contact. And I think he legit can be a

1327
01:04:54.679 --> 01:04:57.440
<v Speaker 2>two seventy twenty five to thirty home run guy. So

1328
01:04:58.119 --> 01:04:59.760
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, I'm not sure there's any more risk

1329
01:04:59.800 --> 01:05:03.360
<v Speaker 2>with Camonaro or Royce Lewis the next three going a

1330
01:05:03.400 --> 01:05:06.960
<v Speaker 2>little bit quicker. Jake Berger has definitely moved up the board,

1331
01:05:07.039 --> 01:05:10.440
<v Speaker 2>really high percentiles, hit twenty nine homers. He's the modern

1332
01:05:10.519 --> 01:05:14.920
<v Speaker 2>day Chris Davis. Cha Chris Davis. Three straight years of

1333
01:05:15.039 --> 01:05:17.719
<v Speaker 2>two point fifty straight just two fifty, not like T

1334
01:05:17.840 --> 01:05:20.840
<v Speaker 2>fifty one. He's hit three straight years of hitting two fifty.

1335
01:05:21.840 --> 01:05:25.679
<v Speaker 4>He's not the worst contract in baseball history. Come on, no,

1336
01:05:25.800 --> 01:05:28.239
<v Speaker 4>you're thinking of Orioles, Chris Stags. Oh I am, I

1337
01:05:28.280 --> 01:05:30.280
<v Speaker 4>am Davis. I'm talking k.

1338
01:05:30.400 --> 01:05:32.400
<v Speaker 2>Ris Davis where he hit two forty eight for like

1339
01:05:32.440 --> 01:05:37.280
<v Speaker 2>four straight years. Berger really great percentiles, big pull stuff

1340
01:05:37.320 --> 01:05:40.679
<v Speaker 2>twelve percent, burial forty six percent, hard hit rate, love it,

1341
01:05:40.960 --> 01:05:43.440
<v Speaker 2>gets the ball in the air, consistently does it, and

1342
01:05:43.519 --> 01:05:45.840
<v Speaker 2>has an expected batting average that is a little bit

1343
01:05:45.920 --> 01:05:50.000
<v Speaker 2>higher than his batting average. Just kind of smashes the ball.

1344
01:05:50.000 --> 01:05:51.840
<v Speaker 2>He's on a kind of a crappy team, but he

1345
01:05:51.920 --> 01:05:54.760
<v Speaker 2>upped his own percentage, lowered his chase rate, and has

1346
01:05:54.840 --> 01:05:57.199
<v Speaker 2>really great metrics. I think it's hard to not like

1347
01:05:57.280 --> 01:06:00.320
<v Speaker 2>Jake Berger, or at least envision. He's a two fifty

1348
01:06:00.320 --> 01:06:02.440
<v Speaker 2>to thirty home run guy, just on a poor team

1349
01:06:02.440 --> 01:06:03.559
<v Speaker 2>with runs and RBI.

1350
01:06:04.199 --> 01:06:08.920
<v Speaker 3>Right, So you know first half, second half, massive splits.

1351
01:06:08.960 --> 01:06:11.440
<v Speaker 3>Two twenty five in the first half, two seventy nine

1352
01:06:11.840 --> 01:06:15.440
<v Speaker 3>in the second half. Nineteen homers in the second half

1353
01:06:15.519 --> 01:06:19.199
<v Speaker 3>were the fourth most in baseball. Is ISO spiked from

1354
01:06:19.239 --> 01:06:22.159
<v Speaker 3>one forty four to two eighty three in the second

1355
01:06:22.159 --> 01:06:24.519
<v Speaker 3>half as well. Just remember he came back and just

1356
01:06:24.519 --> 01:06:26.679
<v Speaker 3>started nuking baseballs.

1357
01:06:26.800 --> 01:06:28.039
<v Speaker 4>He was launching them.

1358
01:06:28.079 --> 01:06:31.639
<v Speaker 3>So uh, you know, great second half for him, big

1359
01:06:31.679 --> 01:06:39.960
<v Speaker 3>spike in production. But like you said, you know, Jazz left.

1360
01:06:38.519 --> 01:06:41.519
<v Speaker 4>Just not a lot in that Marlins lineup outside of Jake.

1361
01:06:41.400 --> 01:06:43.239
<v Speaker 2>Berger also struggled at home. By the way, I only

1362
01:06:43.280 --> 01:06:45.719
<v Speaker 2>hit two twenty seven at home, two seventy three on

1363
01:06:45.760 --> 01:06:49.039
<v Speaker 2>the road. So yeah, you know that the home ball

1364
01:06:49.079 --> 01:06:50.599
<v Speaker 2>park taking away with not a.

1365
01:06:50.599 --> 01:06:53.079
<v Speaker 4>Round the trade would be very nice for Jake Burger.

1366
01:06:53.400 --> 01:06:55.679
<v Speaker 2>Burger's like I think I was solid, Like, oh, I

1367
01:06:55.760 --> 01:06:57.760
<v Speaker 2>need to up my homers a little bit more.

1368
01:06:58.119 --> 01:06:59.639
<v Speaker 4>I wish he was a little bit cheaper.

1369
01:06:59.679 --> 01:07:03.000
<v Speaker 2>His NFBC is like one thirty or one twenty five,

1370
01:07:03.400 --> 01:07:05.320
<v Speaker 2>so I could maybe take a little bit more off

1371
01:07:05.320 --> 01:07:07.719
<v Speaker 2>of that. But Burger seems relatively sold and he's in

1372
01:07:07.760 --> 01:07:09.440
<v Speaker 2>this weird Like I say, he's in that weird group

1373
01:07:09.480 --> 01:07:12.000
<v Speaker 2>of Like now you're pairing him with you know, Royce

1374
01:07:12.079 --> 01:07:14.800
<v Speaker 2>Lewis and Cameron Arrow, he's kind of safe the other

1375
01:07:14.920 --> 01:07:18.800
<v Speaker 2>two that are in here. Matt Chapman fantastic year, twenty

1376
01:07:18.800 --> 01:07:23.079
<v Speaker 2>seven homers, career high, fifteen stolen bases, hit two forty seven, savant,

1377
01:07:23.400 --> 01:07:25.840
<v Speaker 2>kind of across the board, one of the highest average

1378
01:07:25.840 --> 01:07:28.880
<v Speaker 2>exx velocities in the league, twelve percent barrel, forty eight

1379
01:07:28.880 --> 01:07:32.320
<v Speaker 2>percent hard hit rate. Those are phenomenal, sixteen degree launch angle.

1380
01:07:32.400 --> 01:07:35.840
<v Speaker 2>Those three things equal pure raw power. And he has

1381
01:07:35.840 --> 01:07:38.840
<v Speaker 2>an expected batting average of two fifty which supports all

1382
01:07:38.880 --> 01:07:42.039
<v Speaker 2>of that. So those are just huge, huge positives. His

1383
01:07:42.159 --> 01:07:44.559
<v Speaker 2>overall hard hit went down quite a bit, but he

1384
01:07:44.639 --> 01:07:47.239
<v Speaker 2>was making better quality of contact, I believe, and his

1385
01:07:47.360 --> 01:07:50.840
<v Speaker 2>K percentage dramatically down. So you know, he just found

1386
01:07:50.880 --> 01:07:52.519
<v Speaker 2>it in a ballpark that is not a hit or

1387
01:07:52.559 --> 01:07:55.840
<v Speaker 2>friendly environment. He just found consistency. And you know, this

1388
01:07:55.880 --> 01:07:57.960
<v Speaker 2>would be one of those takes where you know, like

1389
01:07:57.960 --> 01:08:00.800
<v Speaker 2>above is screaming at me about Willia Damas, you could

1390
01:08:00.800 --> 01:08:03.199
<v Speaker 2>look at Chapman and look at ballpark factors and be like, eh,

1391
01:08:03.320 --> 01:08:06.320
<v Speaker 2>Jobman was great, Like Chapman is a deal.

1392
01:08:06.800 --> 01:08:09.840
<v Speaker 3>I think he's my favorite deal among the third basemen

1393
01:08:09.920 --> 01:08:13.679
<v Speaker 3>that we've talked about so far. And you know, it's

1394
01:08:13.719 --> 01:08:15.880
<v Speaker 3>he had a big spike in ISO in the second

1395
01:08:15.920 --> 01:08:21.079
<v Speaker 3>half seventeen or one seventy six first half to eighty

1396
01:08:21.119 --> 01:08:24.359
<v Speaker 3>one in the second half. Thirteen homers in three hundred

1397
01:08:24.359 --> 01:08:27.520
<v Speaker 3>and fifty eight bats in the first half and fourteen

1398
01:08:27.560 --> 01:08:30.359
<v Speaker 3>homers in two hundred and seventeen at bats in the

1399
01:08:30.399 --> 01:08:33.000
<v Speaker 3>second half, so he really kind of found it in

1400
01:08:33.039 --> 01:08:35.920
<v Speaker 3>the second half as well. Like you said, career high

1401
01:08:35.920 --> 01:08:40.159
<v Speaker 3>and stolen bases projections are pretty nice to him as well.

1402
01:08:40.640 --> 01:08:43.279
<v Speaker 3>H two forty two, he's a career two forty one,

1403
01:08:43.319 --> 01:08:46.960
<v Speaker 3>so right around his career twenty four bombs, nine stolen bases,

1404
01:08:47.079 --> 01:08:49.800
<v Speaker 3>which would be his second highest total if he did

1405
01:08:49.840 --> 01:08:53.479
<v Speaker 3>regress by six. Uh So, Yeah, I think Chapman is

1406
01:08:53.479 --> 01:08:56.039
<v Speaker 3>the best value among the third basemen now we've talked

1407
01:08:56.079 --> 01:08:56.720
<v Speaker 3>about right now.

1408
01:08:57.039 --> 01:08:59.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and he's not a liability as like he had

1409
01:08:59.520 --> 01:09:02.079
<v Speaker 2>two forty five against sliders this year, which is solid.

1410
01:09:02.159 --> 01:09:05.159
<v Speaker 2>So again, like that's you're becoming more of a whole hitter,

1411
01:09:05.520 --> 01:09:06.000
<v Speaker 2>would be a.

1412
01:09:05.920 --> 01:09:06.520
<v Speaker 4>Way to say it.

1413
01:09:06.840 --> 01:09:09.119
<v Speaker 2>The three pitch types he saw more than ten percent

1414
01:09:09.119 --> 01:09:11.079
<v Speaker 2>of the time. He never hit under two forty five,

1415
01:09:11.119 --> 01:09:13.600
<v Speaker 2>So I mean that's that's that's a stabilization that you

1416
01:09:13.720 --> 01:09:19.319
<v Speaker 2>want to see. He does clearly absolutely murder fastballs, both

1417
01:09:19.359 --> 01:09:22.319
<v Speaker 2>over fifty percent hard hit rate, but overall, like he

1418
01:09:22.359 --> 01:09:24.439
<v Speaker 2>doesn't have a hard hit rate under thirty seven percent

1419
01:09:24.479 --> 01:09:27.279
<v Speaker 2>against any pitch, and those two are only sliders and

1420
01:09:27.720 --> 01:09:29.960
<v Speaker 2>split fingers. Everything else is like forty percent or high,

1421
01:09:30.000 --> 01:09:31.279
<v Speaker 2>so it's all hit hard.

1422
01:09:31.840 --> 01:09:32.439
<v Speaker 4>He lowered his.

1423
01:09:32.479 --> 01:09:36.039
<v Speaker 2>K percentage quality of contact. You know, he took advantage

1424
01:09:36.079 --> 01:09:39.079
<v Speaker 2>of a maybe a more difficult ballpark to hit in.

1425
01:09:39.159 --> 01:09:41.720
<v Speaker 2>And I would say this last thing, he's expected homer

1426
01:09:41.760 --> 01:09:45.319
<v Speaker 2>in total was only one less, Like you would worry

1427
01:09:45.319 --> 01:09:47.239
<v Speaker 2>if that was three or four less in that ballpark.

1428
01:09:47.359 --> 01:09:47.800
<v Speaker 4>It wasn't.

1429
01:09:47.800 --> 01:09:50.039
<v Speaker 2>So quality of contact is really good to your point.

1430
01:09:50.279 --> 01:09:54.359
<v Speaker 2>The other last one where I think he Chapman is

1431
01:09:54.399 --> 01:09:57.319
<v Speaker 2>a deal as well, but also Alex Bregman. Alex Bregman

1432
01:09:57.399 --> 01:10:01.079
<v Speaker 2>is coming in at third baseman twelve at one forty one,

1433
01:10:01.520 --> 01:10:04.239
<v Speaker 2>hit twenty six homers with three stolen bases last year

1434
01:10:04.479 --> 01:10:08.159
<v Speaker 2>to sixty batting average. He has had a point zero

1435
01:10:08.199 --> 01:10:10.640
<v Speaker 2>three differential between batting average for three.

1436
01:10:10.479 --> 01:10:12.439
<v Speaker 4>Straight years, which is crazy.

1437
01:10:13.000 --> 01:10:16.279
<v Speaker 2>He's a league average hitter across the board, barrel ex

1438
01:10:16.319 --> 01:10:18.279
<v Speaker 2>of veloscia, the things that I love to talk about.

1439
01:10:18.479 --> 01:10:19.840
<v Speaker 4>It's all just average.

1440
01:10:19.920 --> 01:10:23.239
<v Speaker 2>He squares the ball up, doesn't chase, doesn't whift, doesn't

1441
01:10:23.279 --> 01:10:27.079
<v Speaker 2>strike out, speaks more to points leagues. That's great, gets

1442
01:10:27.119 --> 01:10:30.119
<v Speaker 2>the ball in the freaking air. He optimized hitting in

1443
01:10:30.199 --> 01:10:35.239
<v Speaker 2>Houston to the umph degree. But he's a good quality hitter.

1444
01:10:35.479 --> 01:10:37.840
<v Speaker 2>So the question might become where does he end up

1445
01:10:37.840 --> 01:10:40.279
<v Speaker 2>going and play. There's rumors are a million different places

1446
01:10:40.279 --> 01:10:41.720
<v Speaker 2>he could play. I want him to be in a

1447
01:10:41.760 --> 01:10:44.640
<v Speaker 2>hitter friendly environment. It's almost like this is a bad example.

1448
01:10:44.760 --> 01:10:48.239
<v Speaker 2>Look at Estock Praties and Yessock Praties was in Tampa Bay.

1449
01:10:48.479 --> 01:10:50.800
<v Speaker 2>He was able to pull the ball and use that

1450
01:10:50.880 --> 01:10:52.880
<v Speaker 2>left field to his advantage, and you go to Chicago

1451
01:10:52.880 --> 01:10:54.039
<v Speaker 2>where you couldn't do that anymore.

1452
01:10:54.159 --> 01:10:54.640
<v Speaker 4>Struggle.

1453
01:10:55.000 --> 01:10:58.520
<v Speaker 2>If Bregman homers with the Cubs, Yeah, if he goes

1454
01:10:58.560 --> 01:11:01.880
<v Speaker 2>to a ballpark where he's going to struggle right handed,

1455
01:11:02.000 --> 01:11:04.520
<v Speaker 2>just home run factors, you now might be looking at it.

1456
01:11:04.600 --> 01:11:09.000
<v Speaker 2>Bregman who hits nineteen twenty homers, he's becoming Alec Bohm

1457
01:11:09.119 --> 01:11:11.239
<v Speaker 2>or something like that. But I think there's a good

1458
01:11:11.279 --> 01:11:14.479
<v Speaker 2>floor with Bregman up in points leagues. I think he's

1459
01:11:14.560 --> 01:11:17.119
<v Speaker 2>just cheap, and maybe it's the old man getting in

1460
01:11:17.159 --> 01:11:19.159
<v Speaker 2>me where I talked about in short supper. He's kind

1461
01:11:19.159 --> 01:11:21.279
<v Speaker 2>of like the sheet. I kind of like Bregman, Like

1462
01:11:21.279 --> 01:11:23.399
<v Speaker 2>I like some of these boring guys that are coming

1463
01:11:23.520 --> 01:11:26.800
<v Speaker 2>really really cheap. So I think Chapman and Bregman specifically

1464
01:11:26.880 --> 01:11:27.880
<v Speaker 2>or two that stand out to me.

1465
01:11:28.479 --> 01:11:32.800
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean, I guess I'm way more on Chapman

1466
01:11:32.800 --> 01:11:34.600
<v Speaker 3>than I am on Bregman because I do fear the

1467
01:11:34.640 --> 01:11:38.039
<v Speaker 3>loss of power for Bregman. Sixteen homers at home, ten

1468
01:11:38.520 --> 01:11:42.239
<v Speaker 3>on the road they have the Crawford boxes there. He

1469
01:11:42.399 --> 01:11:46.119
<v Speaker 3>pulls the ball a lot like I just I do

1470
01:11:46.199 --> 01:11:48.920
<v Speaker 3>worry about the power for Bregman if he ends up

1471
01:11:49.039 --> 01:11:50.119
<v Speaker 3>not back in Houston.

1472
01:11:50.239 --> 01:11:52.000
<v Speaker 4>So that's the thing that concerns me.

1473
01:11:52.000 --> 01:11:54.760
<v Speaker 3>He did have you know, some splits here as well,

1474
01:11:54.800 --> 01:11:58.079
<v Speaker 3>two seventy four verses to twenty four vers lefties. The

1475
01:11:58.199 --> 01:12:01.039
<v Speaker 3>ISO spiked almost one hundred points from first half to

1476
01:12:01.119 --> 01:12:04.000
<v Speaker 3>second half. Again, another guy that hit more homers in

1477
01:12:04.039 --> 01:12:06.439
<v Speaker 3>the second half than he did in the first half,

1478
01:12:06.920 --> 01:12:09.520
<v Speaker 3>twelve in three hundred and sixty seven at bats in

1479
01:12:09.560 --> 01:12:11.800
<v Speaker 3>the first half two hundred and fourteen at bats in

1480
01:12:11.800 --> 01:12:15.159
<v Speaker 3>the second half for fourteen homers. So kind of surprising

1481
01:12:15.319 --> 01:12:17.600
<v Speaker 3>the stuff that happens there in the second half. Did

1482
01:12:17.600 --> 01:12:20.079
<v Speaker 3>they change the baseballs in the second half, by the way,

1483
01:12:21.159 --> 01:12:23.079
<v Speaker 3>I wasn't looking for that. They didn't, But there was

1484
01:12:23.119 --> 01:12:25.199
<v Speaker 3>a big spike for a lot of these guys in

1485
01:12:25.239 --> 01:12:27.640
<v Speaker 3>the second half after they kind of just figured how

1486
01:12:27.840 --> 01:12:29.439
<v Speaker 3>guys are pitching them this season.

1487
01:12:29.880 --> 01:12:32.479
<v Speaker 2>Dude, this is the wildest one. So I'd like to

1488
01:12:32.479 --> 01:12:34.880
<v Speaker 2>look at the just occasionally the expected home runs for

1489
01:12:35.000 --> 01:12:37.840
<v Speaker 2>ballpark we always know. We look at Cincinnati and you

1490
01:12:37.840 --> 01:12:41.000
<v Speaker 2>can see what would be incredible thirty six homers vreas

1491
01:12:41.199 --> 01:12:43.680
<v Speaker 2>various projected homers if he had hit played every game

1492
01:12:43.720 --> 01:12:46.039
<v Speaker 2>in Cincinnati. But this is that's not what I'm here

1493
01:12:46.039 --> 01:12:49.000
<v Speaker 2>to tell here. I was looking to be like, would

1494
01:12:49.000 --> 01:12:51.640
<v Speaker 2>he hit over twenty in most ballparks? For the most part,

1495
01:12:51.680 --> 01:12:54.279
<v Speaker 2>there's a couple that are just under twenty, like Cleveland

1496
01:12:54.319 --> 01:12:56.600
<v Speaker 2>is eighteen, the A's or nineteen. Again, this is a

1497
01:12:56.640 --> 01:12:59.760
<v Speaker 2>bad metric because it's like every single game but Marlins

1498
01:12:59.800 --> 01:13:01.600
<v Speaker 2>we know or not good Burger nineteen.

1499
01:13:01.720 --> 01:13:02.560
<v Speaker 4>But check this out.

1500
01:13:03.319 --> 01:13:07.960
<v Speaker 2>So Cincinnati is the most Baltimore he would project for

1501
01:13:08.159 --> 01:13:11.840
<v Speaker 2>thirteen homers because of the wall, and he pulls the ball,

1502
01:13:12.399 --> 01:13:14.239
<v Speaker 2>that's well, they're actually making it more hit or friends.

1503
01:13:14.319 --> 01:13:16.199
<v Speaker 3>I know left now it's not going to get it

1504
01:13:16.239 --> 01:13:18.600
<v Speaker 3>as a hold the ball, so good he.

1505
01:13:18.560 --> 01:13:20.760
<v Speaker 2>Actually well, actually, you know what, that's funny. His poll

1506
01:13:20.840 --> 01:13:24.720
<v Speaker 2>rate's low, but all his homers are pullside, so that

1507
01:13:24.760 --> 01:13:26.479
<v Speaker 2>would not be good this year. It would be good now.

1508
01:13:26.560 --> 01:13:28.560
<v Speaker 2>But that's just a wild number in there.

1509
01:13:29.119 --> 01:13:31.520
<v Speaker 4>He's one of those guys it kind of does matter.

1510
01:13:31.239 --> 01:13:33.159
<v Speaker 2>A little bit if you're caring about the home run

1511
01:13:33.199 --> 01:13:35.119
<v Speaker 2>projection because I think we we're.

1512
01:13:35.000 --> 01:13:37.279
<v Speaker 4>Hitting Minnesota because I know that who's.

1513
01:13:37.039 --> 01:13:39.159
<v Speaker 2>Been in Minnesota?

1514
01:13:39.479 --> 01:13:42.399
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, what were his projected bombs in many you have?

1515
01:13:43.239 --> 01:13:48.159
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, twenty nine, So it's actually it is too less

1516
01:13:48.199 --> 01:13:50.640
<v Speaker 2>than Houston overall. That is one of the highest that's

1517
01:13:50.680 --> 01:13:53.520
<v Speaker 2>out there. So it's just one of those guys where

1518
01:13:53.520 --> 01:13:56.439
<v Speaker 2>it's like, if he's a twenty homer guy, then you

1519
01:13:56.479 --> 01:13:59.159
<v Speaker 2>are taking some of that upside off where I would

1520
01:13:59.239 --> 01:14:01.960
<v Speaker 2>rather Chapman. But if I'm in a decent ballpark, I'll

1521
01:14:01.960 --> 01:14:04.159
<v Speaker 2>take my chance because I think Bregman is just a

1522
01:14:04.399 --> 01:14:06.600
<v Speaker 2>top four pitch types. He hit two forty or higher,

1523
01:14:06.600 --> 01:14:09.439
<v Speaker 2>like he's a great hitter, doesn't strike out, gonna score runs,

1524
01:14:09.439 --> 01:14:12.279
<v Speaker 2>and I like if he's on like a good offensive team,

1525
01:14:12.680 --> 01:14:15.159
<v Speaker 2>that's where the core kind of stops of third base.

1526
01:14:15.199 --> 01:14:18.279
<v Speaker 2>But back to my point, I think you're looking at

1527
01:14:18.279 --> 01:14:20.680
<v Speaker 2>from the elite elite of Joseier Ramirez, but then you

1528
01:14:20.680 --> 01:14:23.239
<v Speaker 2>look at two to twelve not saying there, I'm not

1529
01:14:23.279 --> 01:14:27.720
<v Speaker 2>saying Alex Bregman is to Jazz Chisholm, but I'm also

1530
01:14:27.840 --> 01:14:32.560
<v Speaker 2>saying or Chaz Jism. But I'm also saying, like, that's

1531
01:14:32.560 --> 01:14:34.840
<v Speaker 2>a meaty core of that position that I think you

1532
01:14:34.840 --> 01:14:37.680
<v Speaker 2>could do some stuff with that goes from twenty five

1533
01:14:37.840 --> 01:14:39.600
<v Speaker 2>to one forty in ADP.

1534
01:14:40.600 --> 01:14:42.359
<v Speaker 4>Things start to fall off a bit though.

1535
01:14:42.479 --> 01:14:44.399
<v Speaker 3>After that, I've got a couple more splits. You want

1536
01:14:44.399 --> 01:14:46.000
<v Speaker 3>me to run through them before we end here?

1537
01:14:46.239 --> 01:14:47.720
<v Speaker 4>For well, yeah, I want to talk about a few

1538
01:14:47.720 --> 01:14:49.520
<v Speaker 4>more of these guys real quick. Now. For these guys

1539
01:14:49.520 --> 01:14:52.239
<v Speaker 4>are for Bregman, No, they're for this group here. Yeah, yeah,

1540
01:14:52.279 --> 01:14:53.880
<v Speaker 4>I want to hit on a couple of these players.

1541
01:14:54.319 --> 01:14:58.039
<v Speaker 2>The next three, by the way, are Luis Rangifo, Alec Bohm,

1542
01:14:58.199 --> 01:15:02.399
<v Speaker 2>and Eohaneo swore As. Gino Suarez are the next that

1543
01:15:02.479 --> 01:15:06.479
<v Speaker 2>come up. I think Gino and Boem specifically are really fascinating.

1544
01:15:06.479 --> 01:15:08.479
<v Speaker 2>Do you have some splits on them, Yes.

1545
01:15:08.359 --> 01:15:11.840
<v Speaker 3>Big ones for Boom one to eighty seven io in

1546
01:15:11.880 --> 01:15:13.840
<v Speaker 3>the first half, eleven homers in four and two have

1547
01:15:13.960 --> 01:15:17.920
<v Speaker 3>bats one thirty one in the second half only four bombs,

1548
01:15:18.000 --> 01:15:21.199
<v Speaker 3>So uh, just lost all of the power in the

1549
01:15:21.279 --> 01:15:24.359
<v Speaker 3>second half. I know the White Sox have been trying

1550
01:15:24.399 --> 01:15:28.239
<v Speaker 3>to get him. For Suarez, he was on the opposite end.

1551
01:15:28.359 --> 01:15:31.239
<v Speaker 3>I mean, remember we were talking about Jay and the

1552
01:15:31.239 --> 01:15:33.640
<v Speaker 3>broadcast was talking about how he was going to be

1553
01:15:33.760 --> 01:15:37.239
<v Speaker 3>released before the All Star Game. Started to pick it

1554
01:15:37.319 --> 01:15:40.239
<v Speaker 3>up right before the All Star Game. Two sixteen in

1555
01:15:40.319 --> 01:15:43.439
<v Speaker 3>the first half for three ho seven in the second half,

1556
01:15:44.039 --> 01:15:47.720
<v Speaker 3>and also his twenty second half homers were first among

1557
01:15:47.800 --> 01:15:51.159
<v Speaker 3>third and when they were third in baseball behind only

1558
01:15:51.199 --> 01:15:55.039
<v Speaker 3>Otani and Judge, and he is tied with Anthony Santander.

1559
01:15:55.239 --> 01:15:58.880
<v Speaker 3>So uh, we saw the huge resurgence for Suarez. If

1560
01:15:58.920 --> 01:16:01.000
<v Speaker 3>we get a season like he had in the second half,

1561
01:16:01.239 --> 01:16:03.520
<v Speaker 3>he's gonna hit fifty bombs. We're not going to get

1562
01:16:03.560 --> 01:16:07.760
<v Speaker 3>that because it's a long season, but he is a

1563
01:16:07.800 --> 01:16:10.720
<v Speaker 3>great source of power, so Suarez, so on.

1564
01:16:10.720 --> 01:16:14.640
<v Speaker 2>Both of those guys really unique here Suarez upped his

1565
01:16:14.760 --> 01:16:19.119
<v Speaker 2>zone contact percentage by six percent, went from seventy five

1566
01:16:19.239 --> 01:16:23.000
<v Speaker 2>the year before to eighty one percent. That's very impressive.

1567
01:16:23.000 --> 01:16:24.960
<v Speaker 2>That's like league average because that's something that he can

1568
01:16:25.000 --> 01:16:27.720
<v Speaker 2>struggle with. His chase rate did go up a tiny bit.

1569
01:16:28.319 --> 01:16:30.239
<v Speaker 4>He hit fastballs really well, but.

1570
01:16:30.239 --> 01:16:34.079
<v Speaker 2>He's very supported on it. Changeups were something that he

1571
01:16:34.119 --> 01:16:37.239
<v Speaker 2>could definitely get to curveballs. So I guess the way

1572
01:16:37.279 --> 01:16:40.479
<v Speaker 2>to put it is he is he does really well

1573
01:16:40.520 --> 01:16:41.920
<v Speaker 2>with north and south.

1574
01:16:42.359 --> 01:16:44.640
<v Speaker 4>The east and west type of.

1575
01:16:44.600 --> 01:16:47.119
<v Speaker 2>Pitches are where his struggle is so sweeper sliders. So

1576
01:16:47.359 --> 01:16:49.640
<v Speaker 2>if you pitch him north and south, whether it's offspeed

1577
01:16:49.760 --> 01:16:51.319
<v Speaker 2>or not, he did a really good job at it.

1578
01:16:51.800 --> 01:16:54.319
<v Speaker 2>I tend to think with the hitter friendly environment, he

1579
01:16:54.399 --> 01:16:56.439
<v Speaker 2>pulled the ball a lot more. It works really well

1580
01:16:56.479 --> 01:16:59.239
<v Speaker 2>for Gino. I think Gina's a sneaky power source I

1581
01:16:59.319 --> 01:16:59.680
<v Speaker 2>want to.

1582
01:16:59.600 --> 01:17:03.520
<v Speaker 4>Love, but like he just doesn't hit for pie Cut.

1583
01:17:03.560 --> 01:17:05.399
<v Speaker 2>I always think back to my interview with him where

1584
01:17:05.399 --> 01:17:08.439
<v Speaker 2>he's just like he hated analytics. He doesn't care to

1585
01:17:08.520 --> 01:17:11.119
<v Speaker 2>his credit. You know, have a high batting average. He

1586
01:17:11.159 --> 01:17:13.520
<v Speaker 2>has a two eighty eight expected batting average man with

1587
01:17:13.720 --> 01:17:16.119
<v Speaker 2>a low k percentage. He's a points League dude. He

1588
01:17:16.199 --> 01:17:19.079
<v Speaker 2>is a more valuable third base points league guy. But

1589
01:17:19.119 --> 01:17:22.520
<v Speaker 2>we're getting into this space now where it's like, dude

1590
01:17:22.560 --> 01:17:27.039
<v Speaker 2>has forty eight homers combined over three seasons. I mean,

1591
01:17:27.119 --> 01:17:30.000
<v Speaker 2>you can play with the averages that is under twenty

1592
01:17:30.039 --> 01:17:33.760
<v Speaker 2>homers per season, and that doesn't work well for that position.

1593
01:17:34.640 --> 01:17:36.399
<v Speaker 2>He's also not put in prime spots. I mean, he

1594
01:17:36.439 --> 01:17:38.760
<v Speaker 2>played with the freaking Phillies and he scored sixty two runs.

1595
01:17:38.840 --> 01:17:40.960
<v Speaker 2>You know, so if you're hitting six or seven or

1596
01:17:41.000 --> 01:17:42.239
<v Speaker 2>something like that, I don't like it. Now, if you

1597
01:17:42.239 --> 01:17:44.279
<v Speaker 2>were to be traded to Seattle and you were to

1598
01:17:44.359 --> 01:17:47.159
<v Speaker 2>hit two, that could maybe change the game up. I

1599
01:17:47.399 --> 01:17:51.039
<v Speaker 2>wouldn't mind that. Get on base for Julio Rodriguez. You know,

1600
01:17:51.079 --> 01:17:54.359
<v Speaker 2>you're not striking the entire year. Yeah, but you might

1601
01:17:54.359 --> 01:17:56.680
<v Speaker 2>score one hundred runs and you could hit two ninety.

1602
01:17:56.720 --> 01:17:58.640
<v Speaker 2>You're not gonna hit any homers. Yeah, to your point,

1603
01:17:58.680 --> 01:18:01.600
<v Speaker 2>But BOM is kind of tricky, and I'm done falling

1604
01:18:01.600 --> 01:18:02.479
<v Speaker 2>too far into it.

1605
01:18:02.560 --> 01:18:07.600
<v Speaker 4>I think that's conditional right over BOOM. I think you should.

1606
01:18:07.680 --> 01:18:10.800
<v Speaker 3>I think BOM is conditional, Like you have to have

1607
01:18:11.119 --> 01:18:14.720
<v Speaker 3>a just an enormous you already have to have homers

1608
01:18:14.760 --> 01:18:15.359
<v Speaker 3>in the bag.

1609
01:18:15.600 --> 01:18:17.880
<v Speaker 4>If you're drafting Alex Bohm and you need batting average.

1610
01:18:17.920 --> 01:18:21.880
<v Speaker 3>That's basically what it boils down to with drafting Bom

1611
01:18:22.000 --> 01:18:25.119
<v Speaker 3>is you have to already know that you have extra

1612
01:18:25.239 --> 01:18:28.239
<v Speaker 3>power at other positions to draft this guy for him

1613
01:18:28.279 --> 01:18:30.159
<v Speaker 3>to help you in your.

1614
01:18:30.359 --> 01:18:31.560
<v Speaker 4>You know, in your batting average.

1615
01:18:31.680 --> 01:18:34.079
<v Speaker 3>I think that's what he is, and that is the

1616
01:18:34.119 --> 01:18:37.079
<v Speaker 3>only scenario where you can draft him, which makes him

1617
01:18:37.119 --> 01:18:39.359
<v Speaker 3>a conditional player. You have to already have made up

1618
01:18:39.520 --> 01:18:42.239
<v Speaker 3>for those power seats you are going to lose by

1619
01:18:42.279 --> 01:18:43.119
<v Speaker 3>drafting Alec Bohm.

1620
01:18:43.359 --> 01:18:45.520
<v Speaker 2>I think we might have talked about him because he

1621
01:18:45.600 --> 01:18:47.800
<v Speaker 2>qualifies the two positions, but just you know, ring Gifo

1622
01:18:47.960 --> 01:18:49.399
<v Speaker 2>is in here. But I think we talked about him

1623
01:18:49.399 --> 01:18:52.840
<v Speaker 2>in another position because he qualifies like two spots. He's

1624
01:18:53.239 --> 01:18:54.560
<v Speaker 2>you can go back and listen. I think that was

1625
01:18:54.560 --> 01:18:58.279
<v Speaker 2>in the second base one Aeronato. I'm just not into

1626
01:18:58.479 --> 01:19:03.479
<v Speaker 2>it is a horrifically bad profile. Barrel percentage was three percent.

1627
01:19:03.720 --> 01:19:06.399
<v Speaker 2>Those are the type of hitters that hit eight homers.

1628
01:19:06.159 --> 01:19:09.399
<v Speaker 3>Biggest splits, I mean two thirty four vers lefties, two

1629
01:19:09.439 --> 01:19:12.199
<v Speaker 3>eighty four vers righties, Rio seven at home, two thirty

1630
01:19:12.279 --> 01:19:15.720
<v Speaker 3>nine away, big big splits for Ernado. They did I

1631
01:19:15.760 --> 01:19:19.640
<v Speaker 3>saw today The Cardinals allowed him in his team to

1632
01:19:19.960 --> 01:19:20.359
<v Speaker 3>look for.

1633
01:19:20.359 --> 01:19:21.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, he's going to be on a new team, like

1634
01:19:22.079 --> 01:19:24.880
<v Speaker 2>and if he goes to the Dodgers, then you just

1635
01:19:24.960 --> 01:19:28.560
<v Speaker 2>like give him an extra boost to like potential home

1636
01:19:28.680 --> 01:19:31.199
<v Speaker 2>run you know, like or like RBI opportunities. If he

1637
01:19:31.239 --> 01:19:34.399
<v Speaker 2>goes to New York, maybe it's a little hitter friendly environment.

1638
01:19:34.439 --> 01:19:38.079
<v Speaker 2>The problem is is from a profile perspective, hard hit

1639
01:19:38.199 --> 01:19:41.319
<v Speaker 2>rate was the lowest of his career, average x velocity

1640
01:19:41.399 --> 01:19:45.800
<v Speaker 2>lowest of his career, barrel percentage lowest of his career. Okay,

1641
01:19:46.319 --> 01:19:48.800
<v Speaker 2>expect a batting average lowest in three years. He still

1642
01:19:48.800 --> 01:19:50.800
<v Speaker 2>gets the ball in the air if he's a two

1643
01:19:50.920 --> 01:19:53.840
<v Speaker 2>fifty hitter, but he doesn't make quality contact. By the way,

1644
01:19:53.880 --> 01:19:55.279
<v Speaker 2>I know this doesn't matter to a lot of people.

1645
01:19:55.359 --> 01:19:57.520
<v Speaker 2>It's one of the longest wings in baseball, and it's

1646
01:19:57.560 --> 01:19:59.920
<v Speaker 2>slow as hell. It is below like cam and Arra,

1647
01:20:00.000 --> 01:20:02.680
<v Speaker 2>so one of the fastest in baseball swings, and it's

1648
01:20:02.720 --> 01:20:07.399
<v Speaker 2>really long aeronauto it's below average, and it's eight point

1649
01:20:07.439 --> 01:20:12.079
<v Speaker 2>two in length. That is wildly long. So I just

1650
01:20:12.119 --> 01:20:13.880
<v Speaker 2>don't like his hitting profile.

1651
01:20:14.239 --> 01:20:16.319
<v Speaker 4>Could he be a two sixty.

1652
01:20:16.119 --> 01:20:19.520
<v Speaker 2>Twenty home run guy? Yeah, but it's average the positive,

1653
01:20:20.079 --> 01:20:22.359
<v Speaker 2>it's post two hundred price for it. So like, I

1654
01:20:22.399 --> 01:20:23.800
<v Speaker 2>don't know, there might be a place for him on

1655
01:20:23.840 --> 01:20:26.760
<v Speaker 2>the right team, But I don't love Nolan Aernato, and

1656
01:20:26.800 --> 01:20:29.279
<v Speaker 2>I'm not going to be like, well, I'm not going

1657
01:20:29.319 --> 01:20:32.760
<v Speaker 2>to take blah blah blah because Aeronato no way, absolutely

1658
01:20:32.800 --> 01:20:34.640
<v Speaker 2>no way, and kind of the same thing. It's a

1659
01:20:34.640 --> 01:20:37.600
<v Speaker 2>little bit on the end. Verse is Josh Young. I

1660
01:20:37.760 --> 01:20:41.159
<v Speaker 2>just I don't think I care too much about He

1661
01:20:41.239 --> 01:20:43.760
<v Speaker 2>has hit two sixty two straight years, missed a bunch

1662
01:20:43.760 --> 01:20:48.159
<v Speaker 2>of time again this past year. His profile nine point

1663
01:20:48.239 --> 01:20:51.159
<v Speaker 2>nine barrel. It's okay, super bad, hard hit, strikes out

1664
01:20:51.199 --> 01:20:53.960
<v Speaker 2>a bunch, gets the ball in the air. XBA is

1665
01:20:54.000 --> 01:20:57.640
<v Speaker 2>two forty one, so it's it's under overperformed. I guess

1666
01:20:57.680 --> 01:20:59.840
<v Speaker 2>you would call it. But he doesn't walk, so he

1667
01:21:00.000 --> 01:21:02.359
<v Speaker 2>doesn't get on base a lot. He has a strikeout problem.

1668
01:21:02.800 --> 01:21:06.560
<v Speaker 4>He's got league average quality type of issues.

1669
01:21:07.600 --> 01:21:11.560
<v Speaker 2>I don't love him. Yeah, maybe I don't know.

1670
01:21:12.199 --> 01:21:15.680
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I'll say one thing for Jase Young is that

1671
01:21:16.680 --> 01:21:19.800
<v Speaker 3>he he had he had the risk surgery, and then

1672
01:21:19.840 --> 01:21:21.640
<v Speaker 3>he came back, and then he had a second rist

1673
01:21:21.680 --> 01:21:25.199
<v Speaker 3>surgery after the season was over. So Josh Young, I think,

1674
01:21:25.239 --> 01:21:28.479
<v Speaker 3>I said, Chase Young, but to your point, but but yeah,

1675
01:21:28.520 --> 01:21:31.079
<v Speaker 3>I mean I do think like maybe there's a little

1676
01:21:31.079 --> 01:21:34.560
<v Speaker 3>bit there for him to like if he even falls

1677
01:21:34.560 --> 01:21:36.960
<v Speaker 3>out of this group and falls a little bit lower.

1678
01:21:37.319 --> 01:21:39.439
<v Speaker 3>Now we're getting to the point where it's like, all right, well,

1679
01:21:39.439 --> 01:21:42.439
<v Speaker 3>I'll take a flyer and just see if the risk

1680
01:21:42.600 --> 01:21:43.439
<v Speaker 3>was the main problem.

1681
01:21:43.479 --> 01:21:45.640
<v Speaker 2>Next I have him above Aernado though I do.

1682
01:21:45.800 --> 01:21:49.640
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so you're not sinking him. You're just not interested

1683
01:21:49.960 --> 01:21:52.880
<v Speaker 3>in drafting him right now. He's not at the price

1684
01:21:52.960 --> 01:21:54.680
<v Speaker 3>point to where you would take him.

1685
01:21:54.880 --> 01:21:55.399
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and I.

1686
01:21:55.319 --> 01:21:57.520
<v Speaker 2>Apologies because it's not meant to be ranks and stuff

1687
01:21:57.560 --> 01:21:59.760
<v Speaker 2>like that, but like, yeah, to your point, I should

1688
01:21:59.800 --> 01:22:01.760
<v Speaker 2>can that are a little bit more with Josh Young

1689
01:22:01.800 --> 01:22:05.079
<v Speaker 2>that this might be one of those guys where you

1690
01:22:05.199 --> 01:22:08.600
<v Speaker 2>have to scrap a lot of stuff. But I guess

1691
01:22:08.640 --> 01:22:10.760
<v Speaker 2>the thing I get hung up on is like, did

1692
01:22:10.800 --> 01:22:14.720
<v Speaker 2>that risk risk make him a bad strikeout option? Like,

1693
01:22:14.760 --> 01:22:16.439
<v Speaker 2>I guess he improved the year over year, it could

1694
01:22:16.439 --> 01:22:19.319
<v Speaker 2>have hurt his hard hit. He did barrel okay, and

1695
01:22:19.359 --> 01:22:21.319
<v Speaker 2>he got the ball in the air, So maybe those

1696
01:22:21.319 --> 01:22:23.399
<v Speaker 2>are positives. He still doesn't walk though.

1697
01:22:23.359 --> 01:22:25.159
<v Speaker 4>This has nothing to do with swing decisions.

1698
01:22:25.239 --> 01:22:30.119
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and he didn't do really great on non fastball stuff.

1699
01:22:30.119 --> 01:22:33.119
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I guess curveball, sweepers he actually did perform

1700
01:22:33.159 --> 01:22:36.199
<v Speaker 2>really well on. He stucked with change ups, So I mean,

1701
01:22:36.359 --> 01:22:38.720
<v Speaker 2>there's actually a better hitting profile than maybe I'm giving

1702
01:22:38.720 --> 01:22:41.520
<v Speaker 2>it credit for sliders and change ups were his enemy.

1703
01:22:41.720 --> 01:22:44.359
<v Speaker 2>Everything else he did decent about that maybe, And his

1704
01:22:44.399 --> 01:22:46.880
<v Speaker 2>poll rate was twenty nine percent, that might have been

1705
01:22:46.920 --> 01:22:49.760
<v Speaker 2>a risk thing like you just couldn't run over. Maybe

1706
01:22:49.800 --> 01:22:52.800
<v Speaker 2>swinging decisions were more more about that, you know what,

1707
01:22:52.840 --> 01:22:56.039
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty two he had a forty seven percent poll rate.

1708
01:22:56.079 --> 01:22:58.359
<v Speaker 2>It was twenty nine point eight this past year. So

1709
01:22:58.720 --> 01:23:00.760
<v Speaker 2>maybe you know, being able to pull over the ball.

1710
01:23:01.279 --> 01:23:03.920
<v Speaker 2>If he gets back to a forty five percent poll

1711
01:23:04.000 --> 01:23:07.880
<v Speaker 2>rate or forty percent poll rate, maybe the any barrels, Okay,

1712
01:23:07.920 --> 01:23:10.119
<v Speaker 2>the hard hit numbers come up, Josh Young Knight have

1713
01:23:10.199 --> 01:23:11.520
<v Speaker 2>a little bit of bounce back. Could you tell me

1714
01:23:11.560 --> 01:23:13.800
<v Speaker 2>real quick what his projections are. I'm very curious.

1715
01:23:14.439 --> 01:23:16.439
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, let me pull him up here. I didn't have him, and.

1716
01:23:16.359 --> 01:23:18.920
<v Speaker 2>He's essentially like the last guy because there's other names

1717
01:23:18.960 --> 01:23:20.840
<v Speaker 2>that are out there, Max Munsey, maybe I'll do a

1718
01:23:20.880 --> 01:23:22.960
<v Speaker 2>quick little thing on but that's essentially it for the

1719
01:23:23.319 --> 01:23:27.960
<v Speaker 2>breakdowns of these guys, the main guys. Yeah, I'm gonna

1720
01:23:27.960 --> 01:23:30.319
<v Speaker 2>take a guess real quick on Joshuamp I'm gonna guess

1721
01:23:31.039 --> 01:23:35.800
<v Speaker 2>two fifty five twenty four homers and that's all that matters.

1722
01:23:35.840 --> 01:23:38.800
<v Speaker 4>Here, two forty seven and twenty three, So right in

1723
01:23:38.840 --> 01:23:40.199
<v Speaker 4>the neighborhood.

1724
01:23:39.720 --> 01:23:42.079
<v Speaker 2>In the neighborhood of that, Like, I guess I would

1725
01:23:42.119 --> 01:23:44.479
<v Speaker 2>take that there's upside and the wrist held him down

1726
01:23:44.520 --> 01:23:47.600
<v Speaker 2>than I would banking on aeronauto bouncing back.

1727
01:23:47.880 --> 01:23:49.640
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, so they probably belong in a different realm.

1728
01:23:50.000 --> 01:23:52.159
<v Speaker 3>Just so you know, I had Estoc Brady's out here

1729
01:23:52.159 --> 01:23:54.479
<v Speaker 3>to call him out on the power that you already mentioned.

1730
01:23:54.600 --> 01:23:56.760
<v Speaker 3>It was sixteen homers in one hundred and one games

1731
01:23:56.760 --> 01:24:00.279
<v Speaker 3>with Tampa Bay and three homers in fifty two with

1732
01:24:00.359 --> 01:24:03.720
<v Speaker 3>the Cup. So that was the big difference in bombs

1733
01:24:03.800 --> 01:24:06.279
<v Speaker 3>for Esac that you were talking about.

1734
01:24:06.359 --> 01:24:08.720
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and he's pretty low. He's like twenty second or

1735
01:24:08.760 --> 01:24:11.319
<v Speaker 2>third baseman. He's still draftable at two seventy one, but

1736
01:24:11.359 --> 01:24:14.119
<v Speaker 2>the cut he really got suppressed. And also like he's

1737
01:24:14.239 --> 01:24:17.359
<v Speaker 2>horrific bad numbers, Like he gets the like twenty degree

1738
01:24:17.399 --> 01:24:19.960
<v Speaker 2>launch angle, but it's like crappy barrel, crappy, hard to

1739
01:24:20.039 --> 01:24:23.600
<v Speaker 2>hit like that ballpark doesn't let him get by. And

1740
01:24:23.640 --> 01:24:25.880
<v Speaker 2>the only other one you know, Max Munsey is just

1741
01:24:26.039 --> 01:24:29.920
<v Speaker 2>like a fascinating dude who's you know, solid barrel, hard

1742
01:24:29.960 --> 01:24:33.800
<v Speaker 2>left it can't hit lefties, low batting average always his

1743
01:24:33.960 --> 01:24:37.760
<v Speaker 2>XBA was two twenty nine. Like him or Aeronauto.

1744
01:24:38.560 --> 01:24:39.680
<v Speaker 4>I'd rather have Aeronaudo.

1745
01:24:40.039 --> 01:24:42.239
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, Monthy. Maybe Eronaudo goes to New York.

1746
01:24:42.279 --> 01:24:44.079
<v Speaker 2>Maybe I don't know the little hitter from the envit.

1747
01:24:44.319 --> 01:24:46.279
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I just think that Aeronaudo is definitely gonna end

1748
01:24:46.319 --> 01:24:49.199
<v Speaker 4>up in a better spot, but it's such a different position,

1749
01:24:49.359 --> 01:24:50.439
<v Speaker 4>like top twelve.

1750
01:24:50.479 --> 01:24:52.520
<v Speaker 2>We could talk about all this like there's upside and

1751
01:24:52.560 --> 01:24:54.680
<v Speaker 2>bounce back and then it's like you turn over to

1752
01:24:54.800 --> 01:24:57.720
<v Speaker 2>thirteen and you're taking ri like Ring Gifo. I like

1753
01:24:57.840 --> 01:25:01.840
<v Speaker 2>him for stolen bases, bom a points league guy swore Az,

1754
01:25:01.920 --> 01:25:04.159
<v Speaker 2>I think is maybe one of the more balanced players.

1755
01:25:04.239 --> 01:25:06.039
<v Speaker 2>There's some upside with the young but then it kind

1756
01:25:06.039 --> 01:25:08.000
<v Speaker 2>of falls apart and then you're just taking some shots

1757
01:25:08.039 --> 01:25:11.560
<v Speaker 2>later at the position. Guys like Connor Norby. Ryan McMahon

1758
01:25:11.600 --> 01:25:14.560
<v Speaker 2>is always kind of interesting when you get into his profile,

1759
01:25:14.720 --> 01:25:16.920
<v Speaker 2>but yeah, he was bad in the second half exactly,

1760
01:25:17.159 --> 01:25:19.119
<v Speaker 2>and there's just not a whole lot to bank on

1761
01:25:19.239 --> 01:25:21.319
<v Speaker 2>outside of if you know, if Kobe Mayo gets a

1762
01:25:21.359 --> 01:25:23.640
<v Speaker 2>starting job or Matt Shaw and he qualifies a third,

1763
01:25:23.720 --> 01:25:26.319
<v Speaker 2>those guys would kind of bounce back. But that is

1764
01:25:26.399 --> 01:25:27.720
<v Speaker 2>third base in a nutshell.

1765
01:25:28.119 --> 01:25:29.000
<v Speaker 4>I kind of have my.

1766
01:25:29.119 --> 01:25:32.079
<v Speaker 2>Players highlighted out of this that I will take to

1767
01:25:32.119 --> 01:25:34.640
<v Speaker 2>the rank episodes into the new year when we talk

1768
01:25:34.680 --> 01:25:36.520
<v Speaker 2>about them as some of the players that I like

1769
01:25:36.640 --> 01:25:38.840
<v Speaker 2>in my own ranks. Those ranks will be up here

1770
01:25:38.880 --> 01:25:40.840
<v Speaker 2>shortly over and end this League dot Com if you

1771
01:25:40.880 --> 01:25:42.920
<v Speaker 2>want to check it out on the Patreon in this

1772
01:25:43.039 --> 01:25:45.800
<v Speaker 2>League dot Com check it out today. Also, Bogman's a

1773
01:25:45.840 --> 01:25:48.159
<v Speaker 2>big stat baseball sheet that you can check out and

1774
01:25:48.159 --> 01:25:50.079
<v Speaker 2>you can you know, you could use that sheet to

1775
01:25:50.199 --> 01:25:52.319
<v Speaker 2>literally just make your ranks. It's got everything there and

1776
01:25:52.560 --> 01:25:55.039
<v Speaker 2>you can copy it over and just drag and move

1777
01:25:55.119 --> 01:25:56.079
<v Speaker 2>guys and stuff like that.

1778
01:25:56.159 --> 01:25:57.119
<v Speaker 4>So check that out.

1779
01:25:57.119 --> 01:25:59.000
<v Speaker 2>Get in the group me rooms, join the community and

1780
01:25:59.079 --> 01:26:01.119
<v Speaker 2>know that you are supporting us, and hang along for

1781
01:26:01.159 --> 01:26:04.319
<v Speaker 2>the Christmas special that's always fun. Outfield is coming up.

1782
01:26:04.439 --> 01:26:06.760
<v Speaker 2>We are going to do two parters for outfielder and

1783
01:26:06.800 --> 01:26:10.399
<v Speaker 2>two parts for starting pitcher and then that give me

1784
01:26:10.439 --> 01:26:12.680
<v Speaker 2>also you we might even do release two in a

1785
01:26:12.720 --> 01:26:15.119
<v Speaker 2>week because of that, so we can start the new

1786
01:26:15.159 --> 01:26:18.920
<v Speaker 2>year fresh and we'll start getting into mock drafts. We'll

1787
01:26:18.920 --> 01:26:23.960
<v Speaker 2>have rank episodes, projection episodes, breakdown analytics, all that type

1788
01:26:24.000 --> 01:26:26.359
<v Speaker 2>of stuff, really getting into the draft season. Plus we're

1789
01:26:26.359 --> 01:26:28.399
<v Speaker 2>gonna do some early best balls here in the near future,

1790
01:26:28.479 --> 01:26:30.560
<v Speaker 2>so make sure you are locked into everything and subscribe

1791
01:26:30.560 --> 01:26:33.199
<v Speaker 2>to the podcast. Find Bogman on Twitter Bogmin Sports. You

1792
01:26:33.199 --> 01:26:35.359
<v Speaker 2>can find me at is It the Welsh. Also some

1793
01:26:35.439 --> 01:26:39.000
<v Speaker 2>baseball over on Fantasy Pros Right now, we've got multiple

1794
01:26:39.119 --> 01:26:41.640
<v Speaker 2>videos of pods. I got a mock draft using the

1795
01:26:41.680 --> 01:26:44.600
<v Speaker 2>Draft Wizard coming up soon. So rookies, top ten rookies

1796
01:26:44.640 --> 01:26:47.119
<v Speaker 2>for redraft, go and check it out. Fantasy Pros MLB

1797
01:26:47.800 --> 01:26:50.000
<v Speaker 2>is the YouTube channel. Subscribe to that so you don't

1798
01:26:50.000 --> 01:26:50.760
<v Speaker 2>miss any of those.

1799
01:26:51.439 --> 01:26:52.079
<v Speaker 4>That is It.

1800
01:26:52.239 --> 01:26:53.640
<v Speaker 2>Thank you guys for hanging out with us on the

1801
01:26:53.640 --> 01:26:54.640
<v Speaker 2>baseball pod for Bogmin.

1802
01:26:54.680 --> 01:26:56.800
<v Speaker 4>I'm Welsh. We'll talk to you next time and peace.

1803
01:26:57.399 --> 01:27:03.000
<v Speaker 2>Soya