Speaker 1: What's up everybody? Welcome back to the show. My name
is Adam, I'm your host. This is The Hobby Hotline,
Episode three seventeen. I am the host today here with
Uncle Rich Klein and doctor James Beckett. Hope everybody out
there in the chat is having a great week. I
hope you are liking and subscribing on the video here
on Bench Clear Media. Shout out to them for hosting
the show every Saturday. I'll go around the horn here. So, Rich,
how are you doing this week?
Speaker 2: Hey, it's a great day to be here. I appreciate that.
And three episode three seventeen. If this was a batting
average in the National League, you would be leading the
league in batting right now.
Speaker 3: That's right.
Speaker 1: Uh uh. Doctor Beckett, how about you?
Speaker 3: How are you? How's your how's your week?
Speaker 4: Bend?
Speaker 5: Dude?
Speaker 4: Great? Great? I agree with Rich.
Speaker 3: Awesome, awesome.
Speaker 4: I want to give it.
Speaker 6: I agree with you.
Speaker 4: Jim.
Speaker 2: You know I always use the Mickey Mantle line and
the Estays cuff for anti trusting in baseball. Casey Stengo
went on a five minute rant. Just did it like
a five minute tour, and at the end of it,
they asked Mickey Mantlefee had any question and he just said,
my views are about the same as cases. Uh.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to give a quick shout out to
everybody leaving some comments in the chat here. We got
somebody watching and why. We got Mad City Brew in Wisconsin. Uh,
we got Collector Dream, We got the Mangotti collection.
Speaker 3: I think is how that's pronounced? G Man Genie oh Man.
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, I'm more of a speaker rather than a
pronunciator of words that I can't re unfortunately. Uh, we
got the professor run yep, that's correct. We got a
doctor James Beckett. Hello, everybody, all these hellos. Shout out
to everybody in the chat. Like I said, Uh, you know,
one of my favorite things to do here on the
show is to get everybody's location. Well, not not to
be federal or seem like I'm trying to investigate anybody,
but I'd like to see where everybody's watching from. So like,
if you let us know where you're you know where
you're watching from. Uh, we'd gradually appreciate that. Always love
getting some feedback in the chat there. Shout out to
Rex of of course on the big screens at the shop.
Shout out to Rex there down in New Buffalo.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 1: And so for the first topic today, we've got I
mean pretty much the news that like, for the most part,
that everybody has been seeing over the I mean you really,
I don't know, I don't know how you wouldn't have
seen this news. But we've got the first player show
Heo Tani, which I mean, if you're a hobby person,
this is this is nothing new. We've seen o show
Heyo Tani be the best player in the MLB for
quite some time now.
Speaker 6: Uh.
Speaker 1: From a sports card perspective, I'm sure everybody has been
fun following this, and now we have another one of
the I don't know, I don't really want to call
it tops lottery tickets, but that's kind of what they've
been doing. And they've kind of been doing this already,
so I don't know, it is interesting. They also did
a curry and messy card this past week as well,
So you know, Rich, I'll start with you, what are
your kind of thoughts on what they've been doing here
with these cards and or maybe just even Shoho Tani
in general as well.
Speaker 2: Well, Hey, the bounty, where is it already? I mean
I thought the bounty would have ready to be out there.
I haven't seen any news on the bounty yet. But
what's interesting is apparently there was a scrum for one
of the home run balls who did probably both of them.
And here's the thing, and I used to talk about
this back in the day when I worked at Beckett.
I did a ton of interviews in ninety eight with
all sorts of media during the McGuire Sosa home run chase.
Those home run balls are also lottery tickets. Whoever left
with it, just like the gentlemen who got the Aaron
Judge sixty second homer ball last year, that's a ticket.
Speaker 6: That's a lottery ticket.
Speaker 2: You buy a seat, You buy your seat, and you
hope that you're in a position to catch the baseball
and then cash it in. So this is actually a
double lottery ticket, the lottery ticket for the home run
bow and the lottery ticket for this card.
Speaker 6: And it's too.
Speaker 2: Early, you know, to know, because they've obviously probably not
shipped them out yet. I think there's a week usually
or a day, it depends when, so they're probably not
shipped out yet. So I'm just curious when the bounties begin.
And I'm also curious because the gentleman walked out with
the baseball from the Dodgers game when the bounty begins
on that as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and oh Tani, it's like how many more record? Like,
you know, I don't know, there's like that Kobe commercial
where somebody just like how much more are we going
to do? It's like, how many more records is Otani
gonna break? And it's just every every season it seems
like Otani is breaking some sort of new record that
you know, like he had I think it was either
last season or the season before he broke a record
that was held by Babe Ruth in like the twenties
of being like the only player to hit us certain
amount of home runs and getting a certain amount of
strikeouts within the season. So Otani is just such a if.
He's such a phenomenon right now. And you know, doctor
Beckett'll ask you a question here, do you think that
this card, for example, is gonna be an iconic card
within the sports card industry? I mean, it is a
top now, and we can kind of go through some
of the other iconic cards, but do you see this
one really you know, being in that upper echelon of
like iconic cards maybe the one of one autograph.
Speaker 5: Potentially it's gonna be both in the upper echelon and
the lower eschelon. The base card is going to be
the one of the most common cards we've ever seen,
and the serial numbered and you know, the one of
one obviously is gonna be huge, but most of the
people are gonna get the base card and they're gonna
be again, one of the most plentiful cards you're ever
gonna see.
Speaker 1: Definitely, And so do you think that this card is
actually going to out perform that, like other the triple
Lebron Steph Curry card, like in terms of how many
are printed potentially, or like, do you see this as
kind of diminishing returns almost for tops where it's like,
you know, sure they're they're making a couple million dollars potentially,
but it's like the more they keep doing this, the
more the gimmicks or of is gonna wear off.
Speaker 6: Really unique, I'm sorry, Jim go Ahead.
Speaker 5: Rich has a philosophy that when he goes to a
dollar box, he's prepared to pay a dollar, he'd happy
happy to get less.
Speaker 4: This is the flip side of this.
Speaker 5: You know, if you were buying into this Tops now
and you paid your eleven bucks or ten bucks, whatever
it is, you ought to be thinking, I'm happy if
I just get the base card, and if I get better,
that's okay.
Speaker 4: But that's not what people are thinking.
Speaker 5: This The ten or eleven dollars investment whatever, depending on
your quantity, is going to be in the dollar box,
maybe maybe even worse. And so that makes it more
of a lottery. And that's the thing that ought to
be disturbing for for Tops, for fanatics is that they've
created this monster car, but they've made all the base
cards be really bad, and so they've got to be careful.
We're creating collectibles, and just like when somebody buys a
pack of cards and they take the best card and
leave the others on the counter, that's not healthy for
the long term health of the hobby. So I'm concerned
about not that it's a cash grab, it's a business proposition,
but if they keep going to the well on this,
it's there there are so many more people that'll be
disappointed than people that are going to be pleased.
Speaker 3: I won't Also, I want to highlight or one secarage.
Speaker 1: I just want to highlight this comment that said the
forty forty card did one hundred and fifty K print run,
so which I mean, I would think, I'm thinking we're
probably going to rival that like five hundred and eighty K,
like maybe, I don't know, rich do you think it's
going to get high? I mean, I guess kind the
same question that you can get into what you were
about to say, like do you think that this is
going to get up to that five hundred and eighty
eight K range that the Eletripole card did or like no.
Speaker 2: And if it does, it's it becomes a pretty I'm
in card when you show up, and I'll be happy
to buy it. If it shows up at a reduced price,
that's fine by me. Also, Jim talks about leaving cards
on the counter. I am so old that I remember
in nineteen eighty five, at what was then my local
card store, people left the eighty five tops Mark McGuire
Olympic card on the counter because they were only chasing
good in or maddingly in New Jersey. A couple years later,
that store was getting fifteen dollars each on all those
McGuire cards that they had just sacked. A way, So
in a way, if you have patience and people just
leave your cards on the counter at a store. You
can do pretty well with justin Freebie's. It is a
little harder nowadays because the packs cost so much money,
but fifty to fifty is a unique situation.
Speaker 6: Nobody's ever done it before. We all want it. That
is such a cool card.
Speaker 2: I mean, if I had bought that and I got
that out of the pack, I think my first call
would be to somebody like Kenny Golden High. How quickly
can you be on a plane to get down here
and add it to him and say you deal with it.
I don't want to have this. I do not want
to be holding this any longer than I have.
Speaker 6: To be holding this.
Speaker 2: You know, whether it's whether Chef Wilson, whether it's you know,
whoever is a legitimate player. Hey, you just get down here,
I'll have the card for you. I'll sign your contract,
I'll turn it over, say good night, Gracie.
Speaker 1: Right right right, yeah, yeah, And then this card, you know,
Otani even you know, even the I think that this
card probably gets over that five eighty eight k five
hundred and eighty eight thousand, just based on the fact that,
like somebody in the chat said the forty forty card
got one hundred and fifty and from what I remember,
the Otani, the first Dodgers Otani tops Now I believe
was over one hundred k.
Speaker 3: So I don't know.
Speaker 1: I think that there is a which which also like
a show Hiptana. He's the biggest name in sports cards
right now, so it shouldn't be super surprising that his cards,
out of any of them, are doing like those types
of numbers. But overall, I just think it's a card
that you know, it may end up in those like
fifty cent quarterboxes eventually one day. But I do think
it's also a moment in time that people are gonna
reminisce over within sports cards because it's I think it's
a moment that has changed kind of the landscape of
the tops now concept, Like they have been doing the
lower number parallels and the autographs, but it seems like
now for some reason, I don't know if it's because
they're the specific moments that they're choosing, it just feels
like there's a little bit more significance here with the
tops now cards. And so doctor Beck, Cat'll ask you
a question here with tops now, when the concept of
the print on demand first started. I'm interested to hear
from your perspective, like, was there even any hype around
when TOPS now or when these print on demand's cards
got started, or was it just like people thought it
was just another idea. And now we're kind of at
where we're at with with the with the concept itself.
Speaker 5: All these direct consumer marketing approaches have had some merit
because you just you print the cards and you're it's
a much higher price point usually, and then they've added
the lottery element, and the lottery element with the again,
the addition of the bounties and the marketing push that
goes behind hearing about these bounties, it just outrageously draws
but brings up the production quantity such that I'm not
sure the production quantity way into the six figures is
very It's somewhat proportional, but not very correlated with the
size of the bounty. The size of the bounty it
has to do with the intrigue of the of the
moment and the historicity of the moment, and the coolness
of the of the player, the subject, or the combination.
So TOPS is laughing all the way to the bank.
But again, if they've got to be careful not to
kill the golden goose.
Speaker 1: Right, correct, That's that's kind of what I'm thinking as well,
Like the idea I was saying before, like, at what
point are they just going to see diminishing returns?
Speaker 3: Like at what point?
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if there'll ever be a
point within the sports card industry where a company loses
money on any type of product, But I don't know,
you have to figure that at one point they're going
to try and come out with one of these cards
and it's just gonna flop like no one's gonna care,
which I mean, if I'm gonna be honest, like a
lot of the tops Now the other tops Now stuff,
that's sort of what it was like.
Speaker 3: I personally like tops Now a lot. You know.
Speaker 1: Doctor Beckett says that he listens to the podcast I
do on Hobby News Daily, and you'll probably if you
listen to that podcast, you've heard me talk at length
about how much I like tops Now cards. So for me,
this is, you know this, I think that they've really
I don't even think they've necessarily struck gold with this
card because they've been doing this so it's like it's
really I think it shows the importance of players versus
the actual product, like when you have a player, and
I think it's the same as just the market in general,
like the rookies are the chase cards. Like the rookie
cards are the ones that people really care about. And
this isn't necessarily a chase card, guess, but it's also
the player that is able that you're selling. Sorry, the
player is what the hype is around, not necessarily that
it's a tops Now card. So we you know, I'll
ask you, Rick, do you have any last thoughts? Here
we are and we do have another.
Speaker 2: Top but about one. Bobby with Jr. Just set up
a record. It's his second thirty to thirty season. He's
the youngest player ever to have two thirty thirty seasons.
He plays shortstop. Otani was a DH. I can make
an argument right now that Bobby with Junior is the
best player in baseball. If there's a signed Bobby with
Junior card, it's probably fly you know, from a tops
Now if they have done such a thing, it's it's
probably flying under the radar, so to speak. That might
be a better play to buy the Bobby with cards
than the heavily produced sho hey Otani card. Again that
you know, always be counterintuitive. As Jim says, low demand,
low supply, Well that's going to have a lower supply.
Then may not be lower demand, but it'll definitely lower supply.
The other thing, and I've always used to say this,
the end game for a lot of these companies is
direct to consumer, and Tops is doing a lot of that.
They're also doing a great job getting people, like with
the promo last week about the hobby ripped night, Hobby
ripped day of people into their stores. So they're they're
doing both and the you know, we've always talked about
tenxing the hobby. Well, if you can expand both the
stores and the direct to consumer, you're on your way
to a ten X. And by doing more than just
baseballs you talked about Messi and Curry and all these people,
you're on your way to your ten X. And that's
great marketing.
Speaker 5: However, on these tops Now cards, are we really getting
ten times as many buyers or are the current buyers
buying ten times as many cards?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 5: And that's that's the scary thing. That was the junk
wax era had you had people setting aside bricks one
hundred counts of certain players thinking, but everybody was doing it,
so this is this is dangerous territory.
Speaker 4: It's dangerous because we have.
Speaker 6: The people with sixteen hundred.
Speaker 1: Counts right right, and then so the other topic, actually
that's kind of similar. I mean I would consider this
a oops, yep, I would consider this on the same part.
I think a lot of the takes will be very similar. Uh,
the one of one non autograph for the Steph Curry
Lebron James Kevin Durant card has been sent to Golden
and there was a twenty five thousand dollars bounty on
the card. I think it might have been Jeff Wilson
that put in the bounty. I think it's an interesting
topic actually that you know, Rich I'll start with you,
what are kind of your thoughts on just the bounties
in general, because I think that's something that we along
with the you know, changing of landscape with the lottery
ticket per se aspect of these cards, like now we're
seeing bounties that if you want to say, you know,
for example, like that one bounty for the autograph started
at like one hundred and fifty thousand and then someone
went up to five hundred thousand. So it's like, what
are your kind of thoughts overall on the bounty concept
within sports cards and is it good?
Speaker 3: Is it bad? Like kind of what are you thinking
about it.
Speaker 2: I'll go back to nineteen ninety eight. The lottery ticket
was getting some of those historic home run balls. McGuire's
sixty second home run ball ended up instead of in
the seats, you know, in the bullpen, and the groundskeeper
handed it back to McGuire. He didn't get to He
got something out of it, but not the three million dollars.
The guy who got home run number seventy or whatever
it was, the final home run got when Todd McFarlane
wanted to make a play. It was a real collect
he's a legitimate collector. So there there was a lottery
then it really was interesting, but it was a lottery
open to everybody, so to speak. This is also a
lottery open to everybody, and I don't have a problem
with that, and it becomes an individual decision. But it
would change my life if I pulled that those sign
went on one card. It would also help my wife
if I pulled the one on one unsigned cart, you know,
and I'm okay with that. Hey, you know, you buy
a lottery ticket and you win something, it's a good feeling.
But then you have to then you realize, if you're
really smart, you have to plan, create a trust, to
create something to deal with the added wealth. I mean,
if I pulled something twenty five k, yeah, okay, I'll
take that. But if I pulled something for five hundred K,
I would make sure I would talk to an accountant
or a planner and say, all right, I'm getting this
one time fiduciary insane amount of money in how do I.
Speaker 6: Deal with it?
Speaker 1: Yep, right, totally. And actually, I mean I think that's
also a good point. It's just like, I mean, for me,
when I was first getting back into cards, I didn't
really think of the implications of like buying and selling.
So I mean, if you are, you know, if you're
listening to the show and you're a new person to
sports cards, tracking everything and just you know, having a
good relationship with your tax person is actually probably a
good idea. Just I mean even actually not even just
a sports card, just in general, because they'll you know,
they'll be able to help you out when it comes
down comes down.
Speaker 3: To tax season. So doctor Beckett Ax, I'll switch it
over to you here.
Speaker 1: These cards are not coming out of any packs. Some
people might even say that opening packs is also very
similar to a lottery ticket or something along those lines.
But obviously it's a big shift. So do you you know,
do you think it's a good thing that we're doing
stuff like this or kind of what are your overall
thoughts on like the the the bounties and just like
what seems like, I don't know, the it's almost it's
become almost gambling to this point where it's like you
literally are spending X to get X, and if you
don't get it, you'll still get a card technically, but
you won't get the one of one or you might
not get the one of one. So, like, what are
your thoughts kind of overall on the the shift we've
sort of seen within sports cards to this maybe more
gambling aspect. I mean you could even throw maybe breakers
in there too, But what are kind of your overall
thoughts from that perspective society?
Speaker 5: I mean, everybody's moving more toward a gambling orientation. But
like I said, I'm not in favor of things in
the hobby that are just purely based on luck. I
think there ought to be some skill, and it might
be skilled to see, hey, there's a huge bounty on this.
The production quantity is not that large, I'm going to
jump in. But when the quantities get so big, it's
really a bad it's a bad bet. It's a bad gamble.
And so that's all I'm speaking against, and so people.
But what has to happen is there have to be
enough of these where people where the bounty is reneged
or the person doesn't take the bounty and they puts
it on heritage or golden or anybody and it goes
for less than the bounty, which is possible so that
people can realize, hey, you've got to put some analysis
to this, because there's no sure thing. In fact, it's
like I said, it's a bad bet. It's a bad
gamble to pay ten bucks to get a one and
a zillion chance to make a million dollars. So I
think again, eventually people wise up to what is a
good deal or a bad deal. When the price of
wax gets up too high, then people go to breaking.
But then sooner or later they say, wait a minute,
If the price of wax is too high, even breaking
it if the secondary market prices don't support what I get,
even if I get.
Speaker 3: My favorite team, right, Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 5: It's moving in that direction, toward more of a gambling element,
more of a chance element. And like I said, I
stand for make to me an enduring hobby, has a
has a knowledge component, has a skill component, and I hope,
hope that when you open a pack you don't know what.
Speaker 1: You're going to get right, right, And then so Rich,
I'll ask you this question for these type of cards.
Obviously from a money perspective, it doesn't really make sense
to limit the amount that people can order, But like,
do you think that adding some sort of some sort
of cap to how many of these can be purchased?
Like if five hundred k, let's say that's the cap,
do you think that would be a good idea for
tops or well, actually, no, it wouldn't be. It wouldn't
be a good idea for Tops because if they can
sell six hundred k, they obviously want to sell six
hundred k. But do you think it would be better
I don't know for the industry or for people who
want to buy this card if they know that there's
going to be a cap on the cards.
Speaker 2: Well, sometimes offers are made max. You can order up
to ten, up to twenty. If that's where you're going from,
and the company's okay with that, I'm fine with it.
That is their decision, not our decision. You can also
make an individual decision as to how many you want
to buy. You know, whether you want to buy one,
whether you want to buy one hundred, that is your decision.
And if the card company says I want this to
go wider, you know, why the narrow instead of you know,
you know what you know. I may be phraised like
you sometimes have trouble saying it too on your but
you know you want to go wide and not so deep,
or do you want to go more deep? Then that's
that's up to them. If they don't want somebody buying
a thousand, and they say your limit is one hundred,
that's great, your limit is twenty five, that's great. But
that's company's decision. Your personal decision is a different subject.
And here's the other reason why I don't think that's
a good idea. I'm a store owner, and let's say
there discounts for buying more, I offer them to my customers.
I send them out to my mailing list. Hey, if
you get me the money I will send you. You know,
we will buy in group a couple hundred. Your price
gets lowered because my price is lowered. And you're doing
an aggregation sort of like people do sending cards into grating.
You know, if you're if you're an aggregator for grading,
you probably get a better price on what you're sending
in than if you're just the one person. So if
you do that, then why would you limit the store
from saying hey, you know, then you're limiting the store's
ability or the aggregator's ability to make money. So I'm
kind of torn on that. I understand the reason to
have limited quantity. But on the other hand, if I
walk into Triple Cards Low, you know, five minutes from
my house and they're doing something like that, and I
have a chance to buy this at a you know,
reduced price or even the price and not have to
worry about chipping because Triple gets a better price for
doing a lot. I'm not saying they do, but I'm
just saying I'm just doing a hypothetical. Then why wouldn't
I just become part of the group and let them
have me the five packs when I walk.
Speaker 1: In, right, and I think, you know, I think we
got a couple of good comments here that I wanted
to point out. So Rex had one basically saying that
the maker of the card is participating in the offering
of the bounty. I think that's I'm pretty sure that
was like either one of the people who did the
bounty was kind of affiliated with TOP so I might
have been Jeff Wilson, I don't really, I don't remember,
or it could have been Golden and potentially was it
was somebody that did this bounty. And then also Brody
came in and said, what's stopping them from picking who
gets the card? And you know, that's also I think
that's that's just an issue just in general. I think
we have within the sports card industry, and one that
like if you were to let's say, if you were
to pull like how many people within the sports card industry,
and if you were to pull, like how many people
think that Tops or Panini actually do have some say
over where cards are going? You know, I think it
would be a pretty high percentage of people who might say, yeah,
I think that they do know where these cards are going.
Like I think that they do know which boxes have
which things and which which cards are going which place,
and we're seeing such like I think the money in
general in the industry right now is more than we've
ever seen. And you know, I'll kick to you here,
doctor Beck, and I'll ask you this question. Uh, do
you think that back in the day this sort of
thing could have even happen? Like if print on a man,
let's say, print on demand was a concept that happened
in like the eighties or the nineties, do you think
that there would have been this much excitement around it
or do you think that there would have been this
much money spent? I mean, I know that like this
is sort of like we're we're looking at a really
different industry than we were back then. But like, what
do you think of overall? Do you think the industry
would have liked something like this? Do you think it
would have reacted the same? Like what do you think
if you compare the era we're in now versus you know,
maybe before tops now was kind of created.
Speaker 4: It's the boiling frog thing?
Speaker 5: Is it that the temperature has increased every year and
now it's it's getting pretty close to boiling so you
couldn't just all of a sudden do it ten years,
twenty years, thirty years ago. This has been a gradual movement.
You had to have Pennini instant Tops now, and then
you had to it's gradually evolving toward more of a
gambling the bounties.
Speaker 4: I will say this, I would think.
Speaker 5: That Jeff Wilson or anybody else that puts out a
bounty for a Tops or Fanatics product, I would really
really doubt that there's any contractual or explicit agreement. You know,
I don't know that that's what Rex is saying, but
there has been speculation about that would be very unwise
and probably unnecessary because Tops is looking at who's putting
out the bounties, and not that they're gonna well, I mean,
they're going to look favorably upon people that support their
products with their own marketing efforts. Now, I'm not in
the camp that thinks, okay, then, to me, that means
Jeff Wilson might get preferred allocations, as he perhaps should
anyway from having a very large influential store in media presence.
But I really don't go as far to say that
he's going to get loaded boxes that would that would
be that could be the end of a company.
Speaker 4: And again it's it's just too big of a secret
to keep.
Speaker 5: So I really I'm willing to bet the rest of
my life on the fact that these card companies are
not cheating in terms of giving product other than first
off the line, which is not cheating. But if you
get the first off the line, you're expected to get
bigger hits and so again, but again it's that's that's transparency. Uh,
this any cheating like that would undermine the whole confidence
in the whole in the whole industry. And so I really,
really I'm betting the rest of my life as a
hobbyist on that, because the hobby would go away if
there was that kind of cheating. And it's it's it's
too big of a secret to not be able to
extort if you if you're in on the secret, you'd
be able to hold everybody else hostage.
Speaker 3: So I really don't think that's happening.
Speaker 5: But OPS is pleased if Jeff Wilson steps up and says, hey,
let me be the first one to do a bounty
tops his noting that and saying he supports our brand.
Speaker 1: Right right, Yeah, I mean the thing, I like the bounties.
I think that they're fine for marketing. I think, you know,
we've seen Dave and Adams do bounties and then they
like go and make content about it, So like I
like that. But one thing I didn't necessarily love about
this one was that a lot of the bounty stuff
came out before the print run was available. Now, thinking
back on the timeline, I don't one hundred percent know
if the bounties were put out before the before the
the time or the time of when they stop selling
the cards. So like, from that perspective, I don't love
that there were you know, Wilson and Golden and like
a couple other people were putting out bounties before we
even knew what the print run of the card was
going to be. And I don't know if they if
maybe they knew about the print run or if if
if in a way, putting out the bounty is away
for tops to get more sales. Like but again, like
I don't I don't remember one hundred the timeline of
when the bounties wor put out versus like when they
stop selling the cards. But you know, Rich, so I'll
kick it to you, and I'll ask you this question here.
Do you think that do you think that they should
continue with this type of product release the way that
they're releasing it with like a one of one, which
I also think that it you know, the the print
runs also have to do with like it's a Curry
Lebron Steph KD card. You know, it's a Steph Curry
or Steph Curry MESSI card, or it's a show here
Tony some of the biggest names in sports, so like
to say that they're the players, are the ones pulling
these numbers would make a lot of sense. So for you, Rich,
I'll ask you this, what do you think that they
should keep going with this kind of concept or do
you think it's like maybe they should see if they
can slow things down because they did the one and
now they've done two already since this it's really kind
of crazy, So you know, I'll ask you that question there.
Speaker 2: Well, I think doctor Beckett pointed out that there were parallels.
If they've done one of one parallels of every tops
Now card, you can presume they're going to do a
one of one of this too, So you don't even
need advanced knowledge to know that Hey, they've done a
one on one on ninety percent of the Top Now cards.
Pretty good idea that, hey, they'll make a one on
one of this, So you don't need advance knowledge to
know that they're going to do a.
Speaker 6: One on one.
Speaker 2: You can make a presumption you know, you don't you know.
That's a presumption you don't need to make. You know,
you know that going in, just like you know if
you know that in Base Tops there's a superfractor of
every chrome card, you know that they've been making super fractors.
You know they've been making printing presses, printing plates. You
don't need to know what the print run is to
make a bounty. If there is a show hey special
card next year that's a one on one from the
Tops twenty twenty five packs, you don't need to know
the print run. You know it's going to be a
lot in Tops one, but you don't need to know
the print run to make a bounty in advance. You
can say, hey, you know, once you see the checklist,
there'll be a one on one I'm making. I'm making
the bound empty, so I don't have a problem with
that part of it. Also, we were talking about printed demand. Well, again,
we're old enough to know that in the nineteen eighties,
Tops did what they called Tiffany sets, which were parallel
sets made in Ireland of the base sets and scored
at eighty eight, and Fleer did Fleer Glossy. They were
printed to order eighty seven Fleer Glossy if they made
over one hundred thousand US because they were printed to order. Again,
so we've been there before too with print to order sets.
I'm actually a big fan of the Tiffany's and the Glossies,
and I will tell you the eighty eight score Glossy
Traded an update. Those are very difficult cards. They were
difficult in the late eighties. They're more difficult today.
Speaker 6: I know.
Speaker 2: Our trade show manager, Andy Jones spent a long time
looking for the Mark Grace Score Rooky and Traded Glossy cart.
He finally got one, but it took him several years.
So and those were printed to order. So again, as
Chris Harris pointed out in the chat, it seems like
history repeats itself every thirty to forty years in this
and you just understand and you play the game, and
if you take advantage of the game the way it is,
and then when things calm down, you take advantage of
it that way too. And if it doesn't calm down,
we've hit the ten x mark fanatics.
Speaker 1: One right, right, it looks like we have someone who
has was in our pre show meeting here because we're
gonna be talking about.
Speaker 3: This a little bit later on.
Speaker 1: That's and then this was actually gonna be probably my
last question here for this topic was the auto one
of one, Like, I'm surprised we haven't seen it yet.
Speaker 3: I mean all the cards.
Speaker 1: I think I was asking you rich before the show started, like,
I mean from your perspective, like, where do you think
the card is? Like that's I guess that's maybe my
question here as we sort of wrap up this topic,
I guess.
Speaker 2: It's sitting in a pack somewhere. Probably the next Dallas
card shall be able to buy a pack and there
it may't been in there. I mean seriously, who knows,
or somebody may be holding it for various reasons.
Speaker 6: Again, who knows?
Speaker 1: And then actually so then someone had an interesting topic
or a question here or statement. Top's offering a bounty
establishes a market value for the card and a ready
market mechanism to realize it slippery slope. Yeah, I think
I agree with that, And I mean, you know, the
market cap. I guess it's kind of a concept that
people some people talk about, some people don't. People try
and stay away from a little bit. But overall, you know,
this card, the autograph, you know it has that five
hundred thousand dollars bounty. This card had the twenty five
hundred or twenty five thousand. Now it's already up to
twenty four thousand, you know, twenty nine thousand with the
buyer's premium. So doctor Beckett'll ask you this question, what
what do you think this card ends up selling for?
And then once the one of one auto comes out,
do you have any feel for like what you think
that card will sell for?
Speaker 3: Either I can't.
Speaker 4: Predict the pricing.
Speaker 5: Again, when you get an auction, auctions either go high
or low. They I think, to think that an auction
establishes the value of something is an archaic notion. You know,
some auctions go way high and some go way low.
So we'll see, you know they again, even the bounty,
these bounties to me again, I take what Rex said.
I'm just wondering if there's contractual language. Most of these
bounties are just or just offhand remarks or are put
out into the social media space of hey, I'm offering this,
but what are the conditions? You know, what is the
you know, what are the caveats there? So you know,
if you put it up in an auction, you're saying, hey,
I'm going to sell it to the highest bidder. And
so to put a bounty, I think the bounty has
conditions and many time limits. You can't come up in
ten years and say hey, you had a bounty here.
So so it is is it a legal contract? And
if it is, and if Jeff Wilson has a deal
with with TOPS fanatics, then then that's kind of discoverable.
Speaker 4: And what would be is that you know, it needs to.
Speaker 5: Be above board, and I guess that's possible, but it's
gonna make people nervous.
Speaker 4: It makes me nervous.
Speaker 1: Yeah, same, I mean just from a I don't know,
it's maybe it's a little extreme, but from a like
the hobby would be ruined type situation, like if there
were if Tops, if it ever came out that Tops
was able to control where this card was going and
they picked that just is I don't know what would
happen to the industry. I don't know what would happen overall,
but that would be anarchy like that would be if
something ever comes out about that, it would I don't know,
just obviously not not be that great.
Speaker 3: And we got one more you know, shout.
Speaker 1: Out to Mike for putting us on, putting us on
all those TVs at Best Buy.
Speaker 3: Shout out to you know, obviously you love you love
seeing that.
Speaker 1: Mike also talking about the bounty being the next hobby
scam like breaking and mysterious packaging.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's I don't know.
Speaker 1: I think I think we use the word scam pretty
liberally in the industry, So to call it a scam,
I don't I don't necessarily know if it's you know,
I don't know, I don't know if i'd call it
a scam necessarily. But like the like, I think some
people put out good content about it and some people
just kind of put it out for a marketing thing, like,
So it's really kind of it depends on where it's
coming from, in my opinion.
Speaker 3: So we're gonna.
Speaker 1: Move towards a couple like it's kind of a couple
of different things here. So first of all, we have
the score checklist and Caleb Williams is nowhere to be found.
You search Williams, you got Caleb Williams not on the
score checklist for the NFL. Marvin Harrison Junior is on there.
And you know, Rich, before the show started, you kind
of brought this up to me and I didn't really understan.
I didn't really realize that, like these new products are
coming out, and with Caleb Williams not on there, it's
an interesting discussion, especially because he does have he does
have tops Now and Panini Instant cards, so you know,
from that perspective, I don't know, like what the not.
It's not necessarily the hold up, but it's like he
has both of these other cards, So like why, oh dang,
I did it again? Sorry about that. I was gonna
show the other card, the Panini Instant. He has cards
from both of those tops Now sets. So you know, Rich,
I'll kick to you first, like what are your kind
of thoughts here? I mean, you were the one that
told me about this, so what were kind of your
thoughts about this?
Speaker 3: In general?
Speaker 2: Well, he better start throwing some touchdown passes pretty soon.
He's not exactly what the world on fire in the
first two games. Then again, being a rookie NFL quarterback
is not that easy. But I think it'll be interesting
to see what, if any sets he shows up at.
He's been very protective of his own rights, and this
could be a corollary to me of the NIL issues
in colleges. Athletes are controlling their own rights a lot
more nowadays, and we you know, like, for example, I'm
gonna go way back in the day, Eric Dickerson had
a couple of years where he did not have football
cards in the base sets because he controlled his own licensing.
Earl Campbell did not have cards after nineteen seventy nine.
He was very specific about controlling his own licensing. There
is nothing wrong with a player controlling their own licensing.
And therefore, if he wants to control his own license
in a certain way, that's fine. That's name, image and license.
And we've seen with college you know, the effects in
some ways of that. But if you know, if he
thinks he can do better a different way, I'm okay
with that.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And like I said, Marvin Harrison Junior is in there,
so it's interesting. I hadn't you know, the big thing
this offseason with Marvin Harrison junior, he hadn't signed with
the players Union like now is but nobody really talked
about Caleb Williams, which I I don't know why one
versus the other wouldn't be more popular there. But so,
doctor Beckett, I'll ask you this question. In the past,
have whether it's basketball or football, because baseball I don't
think this really happens. But with basketball or football, have
you seen players in their rookie season decide not to
be in products? Like is that something you've ever seen before?
Like it just it's it's interesting to me that we're
kind of seeing more of it now because you know,
like Rich was saying with the nil, so like, have
you seen that in the past where a player is like,
I don't want to be in the product, or you know,
they're like they're protecting their image and likeness. I suppose
have you seen something like that ever?
Speaker 5: Well, Rich already mentioned some things and what the end
result of that was with the player wasn't on any
cards for a few years now we've got still with
Panini and Tops. They'll be on one but not the
other perhaps, or they can be on one the other
one has their autograph and memorabilia rights, and so we're
not getting shut out, and the nil is in a
whole other story. So yeah, I just think it's it's
gotten confusing. Most people are not looking for Caleb Williams
base cards, you know, you know, you got to be
a really big star, a huge star and not just
a promising star to be able to sell base cards,
even rookie base cards. They want autographs, game used or
more limited, shorter printed things. And so but like you
was said, Caleb's got it. He's probably got a terrible
offensive line, but he's got to produce one way or another,
or you know, what's going on in the field really.
Speaker 1: Matters, right, Definitely, definitely, And I think the other interesting
piece of this too, Oh sorry, go ahead, Rich and Adam.
Speaker 2: To be honest, baseball's had this too. In the fifties,
it was pretty infamous that Stan Musial had no cards
between fifty four and fifty seven. Ted Williams had the
fifty four Bowman that got pulled, and he doesn't have
any cards between fifty two and fifty three and fifty
seven other than the Bowman card that got pulled in
fifty four. Actually had fifty four tops with any us.
You know, there's the Ted Williams conundrum that popped in
for a couple of years and then so there's always something.
And then in the seventies Rusty Stob who was a
pretty good player, had no cards. In seventy one and
seventy two, Rick reik Hard and in the eighties Kevin
McReynolds doesn't have a TOPS card until eighty. He's got
donors and flear, but he doesn't have a TOPS card
to eighty's seven tops traded. And I believe there's a
couple of other people. So it does happen even in
baseball into the eighties. So so you can't exclude baseball.
Baseball has been there too, So it becomes an individual choice.
And you know, I didn't mean to interrupt you there,
and I'm sorry, but I want to tell that baseball
has had the same issues. And yes, and people would
at least for the first Caleb Williams, at least to
start the season, they would want his base cards. As
I said, if the offensive line is bad and the
team's not good, maybe then they'll then maybe then they'll stop.
But if you want to go be part of the hype.
There may be no hype by the time MICHAELEB Williams
rookie card comes.
Speaker 3: Out, right right yeah, And I don't know.
Speaker 1: I mean maybe this is obviously speculation, but you know,
maybe Caleb Williams knows the industry maybe a little bit
better than some other athletes, so like maybe he's like,
I don't want to be in score. I want to
only be in a certain amount of products. And I
don't know if that changes the industry really, but if
like if players, because like that was sort of the
thing like with with with the generation of players that
are coming up now, they have they know how to
use social media, they know how to use the internet.
They are I would feel like they're probably pretty aware
of some of the other big rookie cards that have sold.
And I don't know if they have an agent or
whatever that's in the industry, but that one that could say, hey,
don't you don't we don't want to be in score
because we know that score is worthless or not worthless
because obviously, you know, people buy it. But like, I
don't know overall, I just think maybe somebody is in
his ear being like we need to we need to
be in exclusive products.
Speaker 3: We don't want to be in all the products.
Speaker 1: Maybe, And I don't know if that's going to change
the change the landscape the industry, if players can just
pick and choose which products they're in, I don't know.
Speaker 3: I guess we'll see.
Speaker 1: But the other the other kind of piece of this
that I wanted to bring up here is that there
was some reporting this week that the tops Now cards, So,
I mean, I guess we can just even because we
were talking about Kleb Williams, I'll pull that card up.
Uh that a lot of the tops Now cards that
they're coming out with are images from college, which I
don't know, in a way to me kind of diminishes
the point of tops Now. I mean, yeah, I guess,
like I've said in the past, I like tops Now
and I've done a lot of research on it. So
like for me, I don't love that they went this
way or just deciding to go this way. It's probably
like a licensing thing if I had to guess. Oh,
Brody actually brought up a point said there's a mysterydemption
and people think it's Williams. So the thing about me,
the thing that I just said about Williams deciding not
to be in a product that might not be real.
That might be he might be in this product like
as a mystery redemption or something like that. But so
you know, Tops has used photoshop, not like I don't
think like this necessarily Like with with the non licensed
suff they obviously have to use photoshop to get those
logos off. And I'm a big fan of the photos
that they are using. Like this photo for example, you
can see that you wouldn't really be able to see
the logo which would be up here, and then maybe
the logo across the chesses is you know, photoshopped out.
But so you know, doctor Beckett, I'll start with you,
what are kind of your thought overall thoughts on the
choice here that Tops is using college cards for these
for the Tops Now debut pro.
Speaker 5: Card photoshopping and you know that's been going on for
a long time. Again, the card companies are out to
make money and they've got a certain expense of photoshopping
an existing photo, are going out and getting a fresh
photo and for tops Now and other things that are
more instant, Uh, they're they're going to be expedient and
they're guys, when we talk about ten xing the hobby.
When we ten x the hobby, it's going to be
even a smaller percentage of the people that are going
to ca about whether a photo was reused. I mean,
the main new collector just says, hey, I got a
I got a new card here, and they're they're not
going to do the photo matching. It's it's only the
purest the advanced collector is the super serious collector, and
so I just I think it'll blow over. I mean,
it's not going to value the card. Oh I'm gonna,
I'm gonna. I'm not interested in that because it's a
reused photo that that happens a lot, and it has
for a long time.
Speaker 3: Let me just put photoshopping and quest the.
Speaker 2: Year of the flood the ninety the greatest photo that
most people consider from fifty three bowmen, the pee Wee
reached jumping in the air photo is from a nineteen
forty seven magazine photoshopping. There's nothing new the photo shopping.
It's not a big deal, you know. I hate to say, Jim,
this is where I'll use the Estay's CAFA for Mickey
mantle line.
Speaker 6: My views are exactly the same as Jimps.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And so you know, Rach, I'll ask you this question.
So you don't think it matters necessarily that these cards
are these cards are supposed to kind of commemorate a
moment of these players on the field, and but they're
not using an image of the player during the actual
game that they're supposed to be promoting, Like you don't
so rich, you don't think that's like a big, big
deal or anything like That's that's kind of where because
I obviously, you know, from being a graphic designer, the
photoshop stuff, like you know, you can go back to
like what it was. I mean even just there was
like an who was it John Carlo Ston when he
first started playing for the Yankees in whatever year that
he got traded, there was an image of him in
a the Marlins uniform and then they use the same
exact image and just photo shopped him into a Yankees'
uniform in two different products. So obviously that's different. But
like for these ones, they're commemorating a moment in these
players' careers, like, but they're not using an actual image
from the game. Like do you do you see any
problem there or is it? Is it kind of just
like what, it's really not that big of a deal,
like like like Jim was saying, like some people might notice,
but the majority of people aren't really going to care.
Speaker 2: Remember right now, Tops can't use the logo. Tops fanatics
can't use the logos for a year or two. I
think this may be the last year for football. I
think basketball maybe two years, or its vice versa. You're
more interested in whom the player is rather than the
you know, in this case, if you're somewhat savy, you
want to have the Caleb will Williams card or you know,
all these all these ricky quarterbacks. So it's not a
big deal that it's not the uniform at the time.
It's and if you're just an average collector, you don't
get into this. And it's almost somewhat minutia. I mean,
look at some of these baseball cards from the seventies
where they airbrush out the you know, it's obvious it's
a Yankees jersey and he's been traded to the Cleveland Indians,
and you still see the pinstripes.
Speaker 6: I mean, nobody really worries about it.
Speaker 2: I mean, sixty eight Tops Earl grow football card, he's
obviously wearing a green Day Packers uniform. It's a Pittsburgh
Stealers card. It's not a big deal that they're using
the Green Bay package. Should they have air brushed it out?
Speaker 6: Sure? Is it a big deal?
Speaker 2: You still if you're a Steelers collector of the sixties,
you're still buying that car.
Speaker 6: So I don't really have an issue.
Speaker 5: Well, it might be easier. It might be easier because
you know, here's Jade and Daniels. You know, you don't
have to worry about airbrushing out the you know, the
team logos in NFL.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you just do the you just do the colors,
and so it might be.
Speaker 1: Simpler, right right, Yeah, And I mean, well, so here's
my thing. As long as they the jerseys that they're
photoshopping are correct, because like that's you know here we're
seeing a little bit of a difference between like, you know,
the like this part of the jersey here in this
part and then like the helmet, Like, as long as
they are making sure that all the details are correct.
Like honestly, if I were them, I would have even
tried to photoshop in that.
Speaker 3: Logo, the the the.
Speaker 1: Debut logo on some of these cards just to kind
of add a little bit of more spice to it.
And maybe maybe they don't want to. Maybe they maybe, oh, actually,
we know what. That has the NFL logo, so maybe
they're not allowed to. But you know, like like you
guys are saying, there are some of the most iconic
cards of all time, like the Ken Graphy Junior upper
Deck Upper Deck card that's photoshop. Like I think maybe
people don't realize that, like that's not a like that
he wasn't wearing. I think they photoshopped the logo on
the hat on that card and that's like notoriously one
of the most iconic cards of all time. So yeah,
I think, like you said, the photoshop doesn't really matter.
I just think it's interesting that they the tops now
is a moment in time and they are using it
on that type of thing, which I again, I think
it's it's it's I think some I think it was
either rich or doctor Beckett used the word minutia. I
think that's that is kind of what it is there,
Like it's kind of looking into details that are I
don't know, important, but also kind of just like I
don't think people are gonna know, you know, it's it's
similar to the uh the one of one when Beinyana
card was also pulled and that U I kind of
put together an article for SI and I was like, people,
are people even gonna know that that card is unlicensed
in twenty years from now? And it's maybe similar to this,
Like I wonder if people are gonna look back at
some of those things, and so, you know, Rich, I'll
ask you this question, like looking back in time, are
there any cards that you're like that you know, we're photoshopped,
but you're and that deters you from buying it? Like,
does is that something that would deter you from buying
a card?
Speaker 2: I think I've never even once considered whether a card
was photoshopped before I bought it or not. If there
is a Mickey Mantle card that's photoshopped, then it was
the right price.
Speaker 6: Fine. You know Ken Griffy Junior eighty nine up deck,
you have a chance.
Speaker 4: To buy it.
Speaker 6: Why would why why would you care that the card
is photoshopped? You know it's an iconic card? Why would
you care?
Speaker 5: Right, guys, the brand and the player are way more
important than the licensing status and the photo, not minutia.
But I mean, it could even be a caricature of
the player, and if it's the right player with the
and it's a tops card or even Panini or Upper deck.
A major card company puts out a card of a
great player that's very popular.
Speaker 4: Terrible photo, you know, airbrush.
Speaker 5: Photo, not fully licensed people, they're still going to be
significant demand for and twenty years later it may not
even matter because we're moving in that direction more and
more toward brand and player and away from full or
partial licensing status. And now as we're and again they
love it that we're talking about it. This is creating
buzz and oh hey, it's that photo.
Speaker 4: Was reused and touched up.
Speaker 5: You know, that's that's it's not positive press, but it's press.
Speaker 3: It's buzz, right yeah.
Speaker 1: And I think, honestly too, that's sort of how I
might view on the industry has shifted a little bit
over the past like a year or so. It's like,
I think looking at things in a one year window
really like if you look at the industry, it's never
The industry has always been about like history and historic things.
So to look at things in a one year window,
I think is tough because I think that's when you're
hearing everyone's opinions and everyone talking about it. Now, I've
been looking at things in more of like a ten
to fifteen year window and saying, like, what's gonna happen?
Like like, like I said, exactly, the point is, like
are people even going to care in ten to fifteen
years whether the card is photoshopped or not, or like
maybe people just won't want the card either way, Like
that could be the thing, like who knows Jane Daniels
or you know, Caleb Williams or any of these players
could turn out to be bused, Like obviously we root
for them and we hope that they aren't because, like
you said, doctor Beckett, it's all about the players, like
it really is. If a player is an important player
within the industry or within their sport, that's what people
care about more than if the card is photoshopped, I think.
And so I'm just gonna highlight some comments here. We
got a million Cubs projects said the seventy seventy four
tops bob Locker Cubs card has Reggie Jackson patrolling in
the outfield behind him. I'm guessing that was maybe there
was ahotoshop that they missed. There potentially, and then Warren said,
you have the choice whether you buy the card or not.
If it's photoshopped, don't buy and don't buy them. If
you like it, buy them. I think that's that's kind
of my sentiment I think in the industry just in general,
is like, if you like the card, buy it. If
you don't, then don't buy it. Like that's just sort
of how I view things nowadays compared to you know,
I don't know a couple of years ago, where if
somebody didn't like something and they were talking about how
they didn't like it online, I would get like upset
because I'm like, I like this thing, why do other
people not like it?
Speaker 3: You know?
Speaker 1: It would be stuff along those lines. And we are
kind of coming up on the top of the hour here. Wow,
time time really does fly when you're when you're around
such good historians like Rich and doctor Beckett here. So
you know, Rich, I'll kick to you. Do you have
any final thoughts here for the episode? As we wrap
things up?
Speaker 2: Well on licensed cards, if the price was right and
you had the money, would you object to buying a
T two O six Honus Wagoner card that was only
not even supposedly player license. Would you object the buy
buying a seventy two Julius seventy two to seventy three
Tops Julius Irving Rookie that's not licensed? Would you object
to buying a fifty seven Tops Johnny United's Rookie card
that's not licensed? Would you object to buying a fifty
two Tops Mantle that's not licensed? So that, again, history
tells us unlicensed cards really don't matter that much. If
the card and the company in the set are very legitimate,
it doesn't matter if they're licensed, they're not.
Speaker 6: History has told.
Speaker 3: The set right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that makes sense. And then I just
want to coil it. Actually, one more comment here that
I thought was pretty good. Gordon was talking about the
all of the artistic cards that Panini has come out with.
Speaker 3: Obviously those ones are photoshop.
Speaker 1: I think maybe the context is maybe a little bit
different with those cards versus like these, But I do
see the point. I think that's you know, I kind
of agree there, And so doctor Beckett, I'll kick it
to you here at the end of the episode. Any
final words, any final thoughts, what do you got going on?
Anything you want to you know what.
Speaker 5: Rich said, Hey, Casey, I agree with them, and it's
been a fun hour. Adam, thanks for keeping it moving.
And again, the problem will be when people get frustrated
and say, hey, it's too complicated.
Speaker 4: Or it's not fun anymore.
Speaker 5: And it's still a lot of fun and hopefully they
won't over complicate it. But it's it's still the greatest hobby.
Speaker 4: In the world.
Speaker 1: Yeah, totally. So we're I mean, we're gonna wrap wrap
it up. I think we're right at the top of
the hour here. I want to give a shout out
to Bench Clear Media for hosting our show every Saturday.
We'll be back here next Saturday. I believe Danny will
be hosting with Brody. I know he was in the
chat here earlier. I forget who the third host was,
but I know Danny and Brody will be on the
show next week. Shout out to everybody in the chat.
Thank you for you know, leaving some great comments kind
of engaging in the show.
Speaker 3: We really do appreciate that.
Speaker 1: Make sure to like and subscribe, Tell your friends, tell
your parents, tell everybody you know about the show. Uh,
you know, that definitely helps us out here. I want
to say thank you to everybody watching and listening, and
like I said, next week, we will be back here
for Hobby Hotline. I almost said, I almost said the
other podcast that I do, but that's okay. The Hobby Hotline,
I guess will be episode three eighteen. So everybody, thank
you very much and we will see you all next
week