Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks. Here's
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your fantasy hockey leader talk off.
Speaker 2: Hot a stem, hit on, staylock Block.
Speaker 1: Here's your hosts, Jesse Severe and Victor Nunyo.
Speaker 3: Fantasy Hockey Live back once again to talk fantasy hockey,
plugging through those thirty two team previews. Jesse Severe here
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the legend. Victor Nuno, Victor, how you doing today?
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Speaker 3: It's good time, Nicher. Well, let's take a little break,
come back and talk some into the boiler. We welcome
back old friend of the show. I don't think he's
been on the floor. I'm blanking out. I know we've
interacted so much of the years. But formerly an fahl
Man but now a hockey news writer. Caleb Kearney.
Speaker 5: How you doing, Caleb living the dream out here in
cloudy Edmonton, Alberta.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah. I asked before the show whether there's ten
inches of snow on the ground yet, because it is,
after all, late August as we record this and I
worry about Alberta. I'm just kidding you, Caleb, you know that.
Oh yeah, all right, So we need to talk about
the Edmonton Oilers. And the first question, I just hope
you're okay, Caleb, because that had to be That had
to be quite a ride. This team has been so
much discussed and dissected. But to reset for anybody who
has been living under a rock, this was a team
that was in one goal, within one goal of a
game seven Stanley Cup. They outscored the Florida Panthers over
seven games and almost made the most miraculous comeback in
NHL history, coming from from down three to zero. This
was from a team that at one point was five
twelve and one early in the season in international news
for how the heck could they be this bad? They weren't.
Forty four, fifteen and five run later, they rolled into
the playoffs, they rolled to the finals, and they just
about got it. They got the most shots taken in
the NHL. Stunning individual performances will go over, and they
lost not a whole lot. There was some trades that
kind of came late here. Warren Fogel left but they
also made some interesting additions that we'll talk about. Caleb,
have you and other oilers followers recovered and are we
expecting next year it's going to be the Cup?
Speaker 5: I'd say that definitely a lot of people expect the
Cup next year. It's last year than they were a
Cup favorite. But I think this year even more honestly,
comparing the disappointment of this past offseason two years previous,
feels less intense, if that makes sense, so because they
were so close, because they went toe to toe with
Florida and it was literally a game of inches, and
it was a miraculous comeback from the horrendous start that
they had. It's tough to you can nitpick, of course,
but by and large, it's tough to really be upset
with a team that had that kind of Cinderella story
over the course of the season and postseason.
Speaker 3: It starts, of course, with Connor McDavid. What is there
to say about this guy that hasn't already been said
getting a con smyth for losing team in the Stanley
Cup finals, crippled digit regular season assists, which actually when
we tied for first with Nikita Kucharap for the first
time since the Great One walked the ice. And by
the way, McDavid missed six games this year. The regular
season did not meet the crazy heights of twenty twenty
two twenty three, with his goals actually falling in half
down to thirty two. But geez, this is just an
insane amount of production we're getting from this guy these days.
All I can say is, have we reached Pek McDavid
Caleb or is there more?
Speaker 5: I think the thing that owners of Connor McDavid and
fantasy leagues want to hear is, yes, there is more,
and not just in points. Yes there's the point aspect.
I think he's in another planet. He's literally Superman on skates.
There's really nobody else in the league who's like him,
and I think he can. I think he can hit
one sixty plus. I think there's a chance that he
could get there. I'd say he's a lock for at
least one thirty points. And the couple of areas that
I think he can really improve on this season is
in bash. And I'm not sure how many people have
really paid attention to this, but Connor McDavid had one
hundred and eighteen hits last season, career high in hits.
So he's a very passionate player. He's a very aggressive player.
Those may not be the top qualities that sort of
come to mind when you think about Connor McDavid, but
he really is super motivated and he'll probably hit about
that again. And with Chris Knoblock and his sort of
defensive structure being an influence on the team from training camp,
I wouldn't be surprised if I'd see him get more
numbers up in terms of block shots and also face
off percentage. I could see that improving as well, So
those sort of peripheral categories could could get another boost
in addition to the points.
Speaker 3: All Right, you can't talk about McDavid without talking about
Leon drsidel a one hundred and six point year the
NHL's biggest star that always comes after the word and
because you always say McDavid and dry saddle, all he
does is put up one and one hundred points per
year while missing nine games in the last eight years combined,
the stats were technically a touch behind his norm As usual,
he McDavid spent part of the season together, part of
it apart, and while his forty one goal overall goals
are camouflaged as fourteenth in the NHL twenty two on
the power play ranks second in the league. One piece
of discussion now is that Dry is on an expiring
contract this year. Is once again same question, is this
peak Dry? And is he gonna stay in Blue and
Orange after this expiring contract this year.
Speaker 5: I'll touch on the contract first. I personally believe all
all signs point to him staying in Edmonton. There's no
other place where he can play with Conor McDavid, so
that only makes sense to me. And because they were
so close, I think it's truly a locke. If they
had lost to Vancouver or something like that, I could
maybe see him entertaining the idea of going somewhere else more.
But like I said, there's only one place where he
can play with Connor McDavid, and that's in Edmonton. So
I'd say as long as McDavid stays, Dry title staying
or at least once to say, it's another issue entirely
if there is cap space to fit both players. With
stam Bowman's reputation with what he did in Chicago, keeping
both Caine and Taves, I would suggest that is a
top priority. For him, and as far as his performance goes,
I think we're in the zone of his prime right now.
I think that he can find another gear. I think again,
a full year with Chris Nablock behind the bench is
really gonna do wonders for dry Cidle. And the thing
about kno Bloc is his teams historically have gotten off
to really good starts for the regular season, so I
don't expect the same sort of train crash that happened
last year to also happen this year. The crazy thing
about dry Cidle is I think he can score sixty
plus and he has had six straight seasons of a
shooting percentage of eighteen percent or higher, which is bonkers
to me. I'm pretty sure he has a higher shooting
percentage than Legovechkin, which is nuts. And last year he
had a career high and face off win percentage and takeaways,
so again, some of those peripheral categories could see an
improvement there in face off wins and takeaways. Those were
parts of his game that he really stepped up last year,
and there's a chance that those peripheral categories get another
boost this year.
Speaker 3: All those cysts had to go somewhere. You can't have
all those assists if nobody's scoring the goals. Guess who
it was? It was Zach Kimon. Any doubts that may
have still existed about whether Hyman deserved that contract he
got to come to Edmonton, my lord, has he surpassed
what that contract was worth. He was third in the
NHL and goals with fifty four. He led the NHL
in individual expected goals fifty seven point three to three
individual expected goals the second place fifty point one six.
That's a huge margin. Of course, that individual expected goals
talks about your shots and the distance you take them from.
He led the oilers and shots with over three point
five per game. You know he got them in good places.
He did recently turn thirty two, and he's a physical guy.
He was locked to McDavid almost all year, and so
I guess the question is he going to continue to
be with McDavid, Is he going to continue despite the addition,
and is there any reason to doubt that he will
keep up these continued results.
Speaker 5: This year obviously was a career year for him in
terms of goals, not a career year in terms of points.
He was six shy of what he got your previous
with eighty three points, I'd expect him to be right
around that sort of point per game range. And I
don't believe that he's gonna slow down. I don't know
that he's going to get replaced on the top power play.
I think he's going to stay in that position. They
had success there. Now, I could realistically see a drop
in goals for him this year. I could see forty
plus instead of fifty plus for goals. But then with
that you'll possibly see an uptick in an assist similar
to your previous where he was at forty seven assists.
This past year he only had twenty three, so could
see some positive regression in terms of assists and the
physical play. Yeah, I'd say as long as he's with
either McDavid or dry Syle this year for the whole year,
I don't see why he wouldn't be with McDavid. But
if he's with dry Sitle, that's a pretty it's a
pretty solid consolation prize as it were.
Speaker 4: All Right, let's talk about the fourth member of that
Big four. Bryan Nujen Hopkins RNH, the thirty one year
old former first round pick, first overall pick, continued his
steady career as big jump from the year before to
one hundred and four point settle back down to sixty
seven where he was previously, so sixty nine point pace
previous before the one oh four was sixty five point pace.
His time on ice with McDavid jumped to nearly fifty
percent last year at even strength, the post of fifty
nine the year before, and he remained a mainstay on
that dominant top. Power play regression was mainly explained by
a shooting percentage drop of eighteen to nine percent, and
so that was a big his power play point. Also,
we're basically cut in half from that high outlier season,
but in line with his previous seasons. If nothing else,
his total shot attempts were a career high at three
sixty nine. So, Caleb, what do you think Rnh's role
will be this next year with oilers and what do
you think we can expect production wise? Is it going
to be in that seventy ish point range or is
it potentially more or less.
Speaker 5: I'd say seventy ish. Seventy ish sounds about right for Nuge.
He's found his pocket and he's the Swiss Army Knight
for the Oilers. He's in every situation and a really
underrated fantasy asset as well, just with all the categories
that he touches. And yeah it's tough too. It'll be tough.
He'll be hard pressed to hit that one hundred point
peak again. But seventy plus, i'd say is reasonable.
Speaker 3: Skinner, Jeff Skinner to be SIS is a new addition
to this team. He is part of the Edmonton is
in the veterans get bought out and want to come
to Edmonton because they have a chance to win a
cup phase. That's a good place to be for teams.
His three shots per game in Buffalo last year were
very typical Jeff Skinner behavior, but the scoring was way down.
He skated a minute and a half less per night.
His shots Corsy Fenwick are all normal or up. Shooting
percentage was not awful, but his attempts were less dangerous
if you look at it, that was the difference. His
high danger Coursy four per sixty was the lowest of
his career. He was shooting from further away. Have you
decided yet whether a guy like Dry is going to
be able to revive Skinner like he is in his
peak ears or is he going to stay in last
year's Skinner funk.
Speaker 5: I think a lot of that is going to depend
on Jeff Skinner himself and if he can get to
those areas where dry Sidle likes to dish it. If
he can, I would not bad deny if he gets
forty plus goals. He's got the skill. He's scored forty
before his first year in Buffalo, and I can't think
of a better playmaker for him than dry Sidle. So
that seems like a match made in heaven. And for
Skinner that'll be a nice big boost. I think he'll
get back to his sort of teen percent shooting percentage.
I wouldn't be surprised if he shoots the puck more.
The Oilers were obviously one of the best teams in
terms of expected goals for the season. I can only
see Skinner adding to that rather than subtracting.
Speaker 3: Let's give you a pickup because we're getting to the
point where we got to cover multiple guys in short succession.
But there is still big names here Victor Arbitson, Evander
Kain two guys here. Arbitson a brand new import from
the La Kings thirty one years old didn't play a
whole lot last year. On the other hand, Evander Kaine,
well known dude, also had some health type issues last
year and his scoring was way down. But a hot
shot and hit machine. If you are a guy who
likes those peripheral categories, you like the bash. You love
Evander Kane when he can stay on the ice. Who
do you got between Victor Arvidson and Evander Kane, Caleb,
are we talking points or are we talking overall talk?
Whatever you want to talk, man, I'm following you.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'd say for points, i'd go Ardvincent. And that's
mostly because of the health of Kane. There's it seems
like there's still a lot up in the air in
terms of how much of the season is he going
to play, and that obviously affects it. So if he
misses a minimal amount of time, he can certainly surpass
what Arvidson has proven. But if you're a fantasy if
you're a fantasy team owner and you want to go
with a safe bed at a high floor type player,
I'd go Arvidson. If you have the space to stash
a Kane and hope that he can move his way
into the top six of the oilers, because that's the
other thing to take into consideration two is the personnel
picked up Arvondson and Jeff Skinner and Caine fits in
there somewhere. So whether he's going to be third line,
whether he's going to push Jeff or Victor down, remains
to be seen. All signs sort of point to Arvidson
starting the year in the top six. Kine injured, So yeah,
I'd pick Arvidson with Kane being a wild card if
you can stash.
Speaker 4: All right, we were going to do a points pick
on between Dylan Holloway and Adam Henriq, but the Saint
Louis Blues spoil that. Let's just ask you about Adam Henriq,
and he is obviously a bit older on the older side,
but a pretty steady producer. Sign a team friendly two
year deal at three million, fifty one point pay split
last season between Anaheim and Edmonton, and overall some of
his offensive impacts are still decent for where he is
in his career. What do you think we should expect
from Henry this upcoming season, Caleb.
Speaker 5: I think that forty to fifty point zone makes sense
for him. He's I don't believe unless there's an injury,
he's probably not going to see very many top six minutes,
although he did demonstrate during stretches of this past season
and the playoffs that he can play in the top six.
He can play with Drycidle, he can play with McDavid,
he gets to the areas he scores goals. I'd put
him in the forty to fifty point range and a
sleeper in terms of some peripheral categories. This past year
ninety nine hits, eighty three blocks, fifty three point three
percent face off percentage, some decent peripheral coverage there, so
he'd be a pretty solid depth.
Speaker 4: For definitely some decent depth there. And let's talk about
the other guy. We weren't really gonna mention him, but
we might as well touch on Vasilly pod coles In. Obviously,
they acquired him recently from Vancouver and he has played
one hundred and thirty seven NHL games mostly. The point
pace is pretty muted twenty one point pace over his career.
Is there any likelihood that he sees an elevated role
in Edmonton and anything more than we can hope from
him other than a very low level points producer.
Speaker 5: I'd say it depends on if he can get third
line minutes. He's virtually a Dylan Holloway replacement, although perhaps
another example of a high lower lower ceiling type player.
The ceiling was higher with Holloway. However, Pod coles in
he definitely hits those peripherals a bit more definitely in
terms of hits. Last season nineteen games, he had seventy
one hits, which is absolutely ridiculous. So you're not afraid
to throw the body around. If he can find a regular,
consistent rule with the Oilers play seventy plus games, I
wouldn't be surprised if he got thirty plus points. So
like a borderline replacement level player on a fantasy team,
if you're in a category league and you're looking for
kind of a hit specialist, he could be under the
radar target for that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, makes sense. Let's move on to the blue line now.
Evan Bouchard is obviously where we're going to start, and
huge jump in production for him. A lot of us
saw this coming. We thought that he could increase, but
more than doubling was pretty incredible. He went from a
forty point pace to an eighty three point pace thirty
five power Play points when his previous high was thirteen.
I think we all knew that if he got the
rains of that top player of power Play, he knock
it out of the.
Speaker 3: Park, and he did.
Speaker 4: He also does really well with Bash and in our
tidy tier Dynasty settings he was third both in total
points and points per game. Pretty incredible stuff. So I
think what we're all wondering Caleb is this type of
Evan Bouchard, a top five fantasy asset from the blue line.
Is he here to stay or is there some potential
of regression and going back to some previous levels that
he was at before.
Speaker 5: I think he's here, to say, I'm not one hundred
percent sure if he's gonna be point per game again,
I wouldn't bet against him. I'd say live points would
be as low as I would go in terms of
his floor point production wise, one of the biggest things
that contributed to the rise of points is his time
on ice. In the three previous seasons, eighteen and a
half minutes, nineteen minutes fifty seconds, fourteen minutes fifty second,
and this past season he played twenty three minutes a night.
So anytime you get that big of an increase in
your time on ice, you're bound to score more, especially
when you have the offensive toolkit that he does the
bash as well, I'd expect to see that in the
same sort of range. And yeah, he's a fantastic offensive player.
I think another year of knob block of being attached
to the hip of eck Holme, or maybe they changed
that and he could take another step defensively, which can
only set him up better for success in terms of
putting him into more offensive situations.
Speaker 3: Mattias at Holm, you just mentioned him. I for one,
did not have eck Holme outscoring Darnell Nurse on my
Bengo card for last year. That might just be me
and my own biases. Nonetheless, when the dust settled home,
was the sixth leading scorer on this team, skating the
fourth most minutes. He was Eben Bouchard's partners. You said
they skated the third most minutes together of any d
pair at five on five in the NHL, and we're
very good at it. He was fourth and goals above replacement. Basically,
he fit in pretty well in his first year in Edmonton,
notching All Star and Norris votes. At Colme's never going
to be a d one in fantasy. But what do
you expect from him going forward?
Speaker 5: I would expect another forty plus point season. Ridiculous that
this past season was literally career best for him in
points goals. You look at some of his other peripheral categories.
Shots is the most shots he's had in a year,
the most hits he's had in a year. He had
one hundred and thirty six hit three blocks, which is
his range for blocks. And he only averaged twenty one
minutes a night ish, which is the lowest that he's
had since twenty fifteen sixteen. So a less is more situation,
especially because he's getting up there in age. He's thirty
four years old, so him being in more specific deployment
is only going to help him out. And I'd say
a lock for forty points and solid peripherals.
Speaker 3: All right, And let us talk about Darnell Nurse. I
am curious about him because he's always one of my
fantasy faves. His bash always makes him pop because he's
a guy who gets near two hundred. Last year he
got near two hundred in blocks, hits and shots. He
was an absolute category killer, especially in hits and blocks.
While that sneaky thirty to forty points separates him from
the one dimensional specialists that you see on the wire,
even with the second most de minutes on the team.
Though Bouchard's hammer lock on the power play quarterback role
dificantly caps nurses upside. From a real perspective, his guard
stats are not gaudy, although they are solid enough. Are
you expecting another bashtastic season from the soon to be
thirty year old nurse?
Speaker 5: One career high in blocks this past season his second
best hitting season. It shots not quite over two hundred.
He was just under kind of as you mentioned, a
lock for thirty plus points and really solid peripherals. As
far as the power play time on ice goes, when
he got the most power play time on ice back
in twenty eighteen nineteen, he was only averaging one point
fifty one a game and he only got nine power
play points that season, and since then it's been five seven, six,
one five, So it's a moot point. He's really stepped
it up in terms of shorthand ended playing on the PK.
He's got some past three years, he's gotten some short
handed points that weren't really there before. If you have
some short handed categories. He can be sneaky, a sneaky
ad in that regard, and if he gets the if
the Oilers can find a better partner for him than
what CC was, he could certainly hit that forty point
mark again and maybe even above that. But I wouldn't
expect more than thirty plus points and the solid almost
two shots, hits and blocks per game.
Speaker 4: All right, Time to talk about the goalies, and the
Oilers were ranked ninth in expected goals against per sixty,
but conceded the eighth ranked actual goals against. That number
is a bit misleading, as Stuart Skinner was well above
expected and Picard was pretty good too, but Campbell in
his five games, really drive that number down. He was
pretty negative. So focusing on the two main men there
in the crease for the upcoming season, it's going to
be Skinnered and Pickard, I would imagine, and skinnerd was
a pretty big revelation, I would say, playing fifty nine
games this nine point three four goals save above expected delta.
Fenwick was quite good as well, and Pickard also playing
twenty three games a solid relief. Even in the playoffs.
We saw that he's someone who in the past had
really struggled, but seems to have found his game or
maybe the structure in Edmonton is good enough for him.
So how do you think it's going to break out
this next upcoming season, Caleberre, We're going to see a
similar sixty twenty mid twenties split for Pickard and Skinner,
And do you think they can perform similarly well or
is there some aggression coming.
Speaker 5: I think they'll perform similarly well. If anything, I personally
believe Stuce Skinner is top ten goalie fantasy wise and
in the league in this upcoming season. He's only twenty
five years old. He's just scratching the surface of his potential,
and fifty to sixty games is reasonable for him. I'm
not sure that they try and play him more than that,
but that's really a lot of that's up to the
schedule and health and all that sort of thing. But
I think one of the best, one of the best tandems, because,
like you said, Pickard was a revelation of himself. He
saw some numbers that he hasn't seen since his big
fifty game season with the Avalanche back in twenty sixteen seventeen.
So whatever system Coffee and Mark Stewart and Chris nabloc
are doing the coaching staff. It's working for the goalies.
And yes, I wouldn't be extremely surprised if Skinner ends
up being a VESNA candidate. I think he's really got
that potential, and a full season under that defensive structure,
it's going to be tough for him to not be
as good as he was in that sample size with
no block behind the bench for the regular season in playoffs.
Speaker 3: Excellent, Caleb. We really appreciate you're coming to talk to
us about the Oilers. How can people keep up with
all the work you're doing out there?
Speaker 5: They can follow me on Twitter or X if you
prefer to call it that. Just look up see Kerney
writer and they can follow along with everything that I'm
writing on the Hockey News I write for and I
run the Edmonton Oilers team site, so they can just
go the Hockey News dot com slash Edmonton Dash Oilers
and that they can find everything there.
Speaker 3: All right, great, We'll follow Caleb Kernie on the Hockey
News on X and appreciate you coming on today, Buddy.
Speaker 5: Thanks for having me.
Speaker 2: Hi, Benell, that's good fired pass up, Oh my goodness,
walk with a Cat quick Gram.
Speaker 3: Now it's your weekly goalie talk, but Kat's Silverman Cat's Instincts.
Speaker 4: Back with another edition of Cat's Instincts with Kat Silverman
and Ngel Mag we're talking Oilers goalies and that means
that we are talking Olivier Rodrigue as their top goalie. No,
unfortunately they did not pull the trigger and draft just
for a while stead when they had the chance. So
here we are talking about mister twenty eighteen second round pick,
six foot, one hundred and seventy four pounds now twenty
four years old, played his second HL season and it
was actually looked like some improvement from the previous season
nine to twelve save percentage last year nine to sixteen
this year, got a few more wins overall, there was
some improvement. His hockey prospecting equivalency has stayed pretty similar
right in the mid twenties. There not a lot of
great comps, but there's a Cal Peterson in there. So
we talked last year about how his nepotism in the
twenty eighteen maybe that wasn't the best idea to go
with him because his dad being the goalie coach there
for Edmonton. Have we changed our opinion at all about
Rodriq after a second decent HL season, or we still
not as excited about him.
Speaker 6: I think he looked fine. I watched some highlights and
he's unsurprisingly, he has very good rot technique. He has
all the standards down path. Seems like they've been drilled
in him since birth, which they probably have been. He's
got a little bit of an advantage there. The thing
that he was missing when I watched his game was
that extra little instinctive level where he was able to
discern when he needed to use technique and when he
needed to just throw it out the window, when he
needed to.
Speaker 7: Move between.
Speaker 6: Pure skating, when he needed to stick handle. It seemed
like overall he had the hard work, but not necessarily
the top tier gift and.
Speaker 7: A testament to him. I know I've been a little
lukewarm on him in.
Speaker 6: The past as the second round nepotism pick that he
needs to do a little more to impress me than
some of the other goaltenders, But I give him credit.
The Edmonton system is a really hard one to come
up in. It's a hard one to play in. It's
a hard one to maintain good maintain optimism and continue
trending upwards, and it seems like he's rolling along. He's
been given a lot of opportunity, like every good NAPO baby,
he's been given a lot of opportunity that other hits
maybe necessarily haven't. But he's making the most of it,
and we're seeing his games steadily improve. He's making some
extra adventurous saves. Seems like he isn't the second guessing
himself and he's making more confidence saves. Seems like he's
reading his teammates really well, and that's something that once
again he's been given the gift of staying with the
same team his entire pro career so far. During COVID,
he was controversially their lone goaltending prospect who was given
an assignment to a team overseas, and he didn't have
the opportunity to play in North America while some of
their other prospects were not given loans overseas, So that
became a little controversial, But he made the most of that,
and I think that's something to be respected and appreciated.
I do think that it is hard to ever get
fully confident in seeing a long, fruitful career from an
Edmonton Euler's goaltender, just because that is such a hard
team to play behind, and we are going on i
would say, close to fifteen years at this point without
seeing consistently strong goaltending for me, a single goaltender for
more than two to three years in a row. So
I'm not going to say that he's going to become
the next long lived like a Henrik Lundquist Corey Crawford.
But I think he's proven that he's not going to regress,
and at the very least, I think he's going to
be a good goaltender to have in their system at
the NHL level. I just don't know for how long.
And I do worry that if he does start to
stumble or he looks like a poor fit for any
systems in the future, it is a much harder sell
to move him somewhere else because it seems like that
team is very invested in keeping him around.
Speaker 7: We'll see how it goes.
Speaker 6: I will be super happy for him if he makes
the most of his opportunity. Still don't think he's better
than Jasper Wallstatt, but.
Speaker 7: Who is. That's a bold take for me to make.
Speaker 4: Sarry, do you think if he is in the NHL.
Is he like backup at best? One B? One A
sounds like not starter.
Speaker 6: Looks I have yet to see Edmonton put together a
consistent enough defensive season to confidently say that they should
have a pure starter, like an under Vesselevsky.
Speaker 7: So I would say probably one A, one B. Right now.
Speaker 6: I think he looks like he's put in the work,
and he's given us the numbers to prove that. I
think he's ready for full time an AHL action. I
just wouldn't immediately throw him in there and give him
sixty five to seventy starts in a year. I'd give
him thirty five, maybe forty.
Speaker 4: All right, We'll have to watch see if he does
that this year. Obviously Pickard was reasonable in the past.
We'll see how many starts he gets. Let's move on
to the next guy, Emil Vinnie. They needed another guy
in their system, and that is what they got. Twenty
twenty four to sixty fourth overall pick six ft, three
hundred and eighty seven pounds. He played in Mestus this season,
as well as some international events. Overall, seemed like consensus
one of the top goalies this year. At least a
lot of people seem to like him, who was the
fifth goalie to go after Ilana Bakov, mikhil Igorov, Carter
George and Evan Gardner. Kerry Ramo is both finished and
a reasonable camp for him as far as the hockey
prospecting model is concerned. So, Kat, what do your instincts
tell us about Vinnie?
Speaker 6: We love to see a good carri Ramo comp That's
a fun name to have thrown back in here.
Speaker 7: Like you said, they needed another guy in their system.
Speaker 6: I think he's a perfectly acceptable to guy, a perfectly
acceptable guy to have in there.
Speaker 7: Watching through some of his highlights.
Speaker 6: It's to watch because I do think that some of
these finish, developed goaltenders do a really good job of
playing in international tournaments regardless of the ice surface that
they're playing on during the regular season, just because they're
given a little more aggression when they're being developed. They
tend to stand towards the top of the blue paint.
They're a little farther out than we see some of
their Swedish counterparts, but they aren't afraid to get a
little more conservative with their overall positioning while keeping some
of their strong skating in Some of their willingness to
stay on their feet for a little bit longer than
we see once again those the Swedish and sometimes the
Russian counterparts.
Speaker 7: So he looked really adaptable.
Speaker 6: In some of the international highlights I saw, he looked
like he was doing a pretty good job of tracking,
didn't stay super flat on the goal line, so had
some nice angles there. Didn't look like anything that wowed
me a ton, But it's Edmonton, so I wouldn't throw
any goaltender in there immediately after getting drafted.
Speaker 7: So we're likely the.
Speaker 6: Number of years away from seeing him at the NHL
level anyway, So I think he's a strong person to
add into their system because they do need someone who's
a couple of years away who they can continue to
allow to develop patiently and in maybe a less pressure
filled system than keeping them in North America where all
of the Oilers fan's eyes will be on them twenty
four to seven, because that fan base tends to get
a little intense even with their prospects, watching them develop
and making it clear that they're eager to see them
hit the pros sooner rather than later. So it gives
them a chance to develop over in Europe without having
to worry about being rushed up too soon, which is nice.
Speaker 4: Yes, I will say, if you you're looking for prospect goalies,
there's probably better systems. But thank you cav forgiving us
your instincts. On the Edmonton Oiler Goalies.
Speaker 3: Digs, the Dynasty dig at then two Boilers edition, the
Oilers actually ranked kind of middle of the road for
Victor in prospects, though the consensus seems to be lower
than that. It starts out with the no brainer Victor.
Who's your no brainer for the Oilers.
Speaker 4: Well, he's such a no brainer we can't get him
out of our brain because we talked about him on
the Buffalo episode. Then he got traded tod They Beinton
Oilers and that's of course. Matthew Savoy twenty twenty two,
ninth overall pick, still a little bit undersized at five
to ten and eighty pounds. Played one NHL game. Oh sorry,
I played it NHL game this season six HL five
points in those six AHL games. They went back to
the WHL and was really good for Wanachi went to
the U twenty World Junior Championships. Was disappointing, like a
lot of the Canadians were. Unfortunately got traded to moose
Jaw and he was pretty awesome there With Moosejaw went
to the Memortal Cup. The production was pretty outstanding. Sixteen
points in ten games with moose Jaw after over two
points per game in the regular season. And looking at
his player card from Mitch Brown, offense ninety seven percent,
tile transition really good at seventy nine percentile, and he's
even his defense in the WHL was pretty outstanding at
ninety eight percentiles. You love to see that his game score,
his primary point involvement, his expected goals and assists, and
his entries all look pretty outstanding for Matthew Savoy. Looking
at his FHL player card, you can see that he
is probably more of a points only option. His shots
are really good, but his hits and blocks are well
below average, so his shots drive a pretty high number
for his bash. But other than that, it's a bit disappointing,
unfortunately for Matthew Savoy. But the scoring is what you're
here for. That's where your hope that translates, and if
it does, oh boy, and that's something to get pretty
excited about. But let's hear a little bit more about
Matthew Savoya from OURFHL scout.
Speaker 3: Our FHL scout in this case Joshua, he says not
an out and out speedster. Savoy as a fascater, regularly
uses his breakaway speed to create distance between himself and
defenders and takes advantage of fast breaks. Passing and handling.
Offensive skills are Matt Savoy's bread and butter. The skills
really shot in the power play with creativity with plenty
of time and space. He has a combination of skill
in IQ creativity, it can be difficult to tell what
he's going to do next. He can beat defenders with
slick stick handling, or can make small adjustments to get
the perfect shot or pass off around defenders shooting, there
was one goal that Joshua saw he had to rewind
a couple of times to see where and how the
shot actually went. In SA, boy can get a heavy,
accurate shot off really quickly, definitely second to his stick handling,
but it's big enough threat to keep defenders and goalies
true on the shot and on IQ. Savoy has a
brain for offense and excels in all facets. He seems
to live for the puck on his stick and pretty
much always makes a good decision with the puck. Sometimes
he can force passes, but generally he has the skill
to pull off some beautiful and surprising passes in plays.
He's especially dangerous on the fast break, whether that's alone
and depending on his handles and shot, or with the teammate,
giving him even more options for checking. Well. Not a
standout for checker, Savoy can use his speed and low
center of gravity to be a quite annoying presence to
opposing defenders. On defense, Savoy did get penalty to kill
time this year and didn't look out of place. He
has an active stick in the defensive zone, but sometimes
his lack of size five ten one seventy nine got
him into trouble. So the best asset Savoy's offensive IQ
and skill in pretty much all facets of the offensive
game are top tier. The biggest concern the size and
the defense Savoys. He's not going to be a Selki
nominee and big defenders might cause some trouble when there's
less time to work. The top tier outcome for Savoy
tier one point per game plus player elite offensive talent
and on the Oilers kids justification for that Savoy has
all the potential skills to be an elite first line
player if everything falls well. He can skate, he can score,
he can pass, He isn't a liability in his own zone.
Tier two would be the fiftieth percentile outcome. That's a
seventy to eighty point score with below average bash, Savoya
will at least be a power play specialist, a middle
six forward. The biggest problem fantasy wise that if Savoy
is that if Savoy isn't producing points, he likely won't
be doing much else. The stylistic comparable. At best, Savoy
could become a Bradon point type player, great versatile forward
that consistently threatens one hundred points. It would be shocking
if Savoy isn't a full time players soon, says Joshua
having potential or positive offensive impact, especially if he's paired
with another great young offensive talent, our friend Mason Black.
The NHL Rank King put Matt Savoy up against one
of his former teammates, Yuri Kolich, and Coolich actually came
out ahead in this one, fifty three to forty seven
percent Victor Coolidge versus Savoy. Who you got?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm taking Koolik here. I like him more as
a for sure, two way guy. I think he can
play in all situations, and he's got the energy, he's
got the motor, he's got the size. He's six to
one hundred and eighty five pounds, not too much heavier,
but he's got a little bit more of the height
and him producing in the AHL at super strong levels,
historic levels. Really he's played. He's an April fourteenth birthday,
so he's had two HL seasons as a teenager. It's
been pretty incredible to watch and his production has been outstanding.
So you love to see that. Just one NHL game
so far, but I would take him. I know that
the upside for Savoy is higher, but as mentioned in
the scouting report by Josh, if he's not scoring points,
then he's not necessarily doing a lot for you, and
I could see him being the type of forward that
gets benched or has issues getting enough ice time because
of those things. We've we talked with with Joel a
couple of years ago about how different Savoy is from
bradon point and he maintains that it's not really similar,
and so I would I understand the comparison. They're both
WHL guys, are both undersides, they're both really craftively offensively,
but I'm not sure that he has that realistic upside,
although it's certainly possible. Anything's possible, but I would definitely
take Kolik here. I think he's the more secure option,
and I think he's gonna he has a higher floor anyways,
a Savoy has the higher upside. But I think this
pole might not have taken into context the potential of
Matthew Savoy playing with Connor McDavid or Lee and Dreysidel,
because that obviously is pretty tantalizing. And if he gets
that role, or if he gets a role on that
power play, which seems unlikely at this point because it's
pretty locked in, it's pretty possible that he could have
tremendous upside even with limited two way acumen. I like Kulick,
but I recognize the potential for Savoy here, and I
think he could have some pretty special upside. I would
just caution people that are going a little bananas trying
to draft him right now in one year league thinking
he's going to have that role already. I think he
needs some AHL time, and I think he needs a
show that he can hang a full season in the AHL.
Looking at the hockey prospecting. Between the two, Savoy clearly
has the higher potential based on that model, sixty six
percent chance of being a star based on his WHL time,
and Kulick just six percent chance of being a star
base on his AHL time, and a lot of that
is based not on his AHL time but on the
previous seasons where he didn't really have a very good
equivalency in the Czech leagues. So that's why Kulick doesn't
look as good in this model Savoy. In terms of
some of his other comps, I think bradon point is
here statistically on the hockey, but I didn't use that
one because I don't think it's super realistic. But I
think someone like mckel Granlin is probably a little bit
more realistic, and they're actually closer to SI similar size,
and so I think that's a little bit more appropriate.
And Mikil Granlind certainly had some pretty decent seasons, and
he also had some kind of more average to subpar
or replacement level seasons, so that might be Savoy. I
think Grandlin is much better too way than Savoy is
now anyways, so that would need to come a little
bit too for him to hit that potential as well.
But there's some other guys in here as well, like
just for Bokefist, maybe that would be a disappointing outcome,
and Alexander Holtz, who's a little bit more uniqu tomension
in terms of his offense, which would be not at
this point not a great outcome for Savoy. Looking at
some of the other models, Jay Fresh has Savoy at
eighteen percent chance of being star, sixty eight percent chance
of being in NHLR, So that's pretty decent for that model.
It's typically pretty pessimistic all in all. I think that
Savoy is a there's some volatility there. He has some
pretty high upside, but I think that it's not his
ice time and his role isn't super secure. I think,
as Josh mentioned there, he should be on the power play,
but whether he earns that ice time depending on the coach,
is a little bit questionable. And if he's not getting
that role, then his upside is pretty limited.
Speaker 3: Jesse, who Victor is your need to know prospect?
Speaker 4: Yeah? The need to know is bo Achy and he
was a twenty twenty three second round pick fifty sixth
overall by the Oilers. Six foot er one hundred and
seventy four pounds right handed. D had nine points in
fourteen games for the Barry Colts before suffering a season
ending injury in mid November. So unfortunately, we were hoping
to learn a little bit more about bo Achy and
what kind of step he could take, but we didn't
see a whole lot because of the injury. So we
didn't learn a ton from his draft plus one season.
Looking at his FHL player card based on those limited
fourteen games, and we can see that overall, his bashes
above average, his hits are about average, his blockser above
and his shots are and eighty percent tiles, so he
should be around a seventy percent tile for bash. His
goals for sixty were really high considering he had four
goals in fourteen games last season, he had eleven in
sixty six games. So someone who can potentially put the
puck on the net. I'm always skeptical of offensive defenseman
scoring in the junior leagues, but some of his other numbers,
he had some pretty decent play, driving above average in
the OHL. But let's hear a little bit more about
what makes bow Aki so interesting for my FHL scout.
Speaker 3: Okay, FHL scout, Patrick says a bow ache. He's a
smooth skater who has good speed as well as turning
and pivoting well passing and handling. He's an excellent passer
and handler. He makes accurate and timely passes to facilitate
breakouts and set up scoring opportunities in the offensive zone.
He handles the puck well on the brush and in
the zones. He's more of a passer than shooter. His
shot can use some work. There are times when he
shoots right into defenders rather than finding a lane and
getting it on net. Bo Ak's IQ is high. He
has a low panic threshold, showing poise with the puck.
He exhibits good vision on the rush and when distributing
the puck. Poor checking, Aki will often venture down to
the faceoff dot or further into the offensive zone to
help keep the four check in cycle going defense. In
his viewings, this defense did not look great. There were
several times when he lost board battles or coughed up
the puck in the defensive zone. He had some poke checks,
but others that miss the mark. Best asset Patrick says
it's passing and handling once again, and the biggest concern
is defense, and the limited sample sized Patrick sawd this
was easily the biggest weakness the top tier outcome perhaps
if everything goes right, second pair defenseman. That's because if
he can stay healthy and sufficiently develop his weaknesses, he
might be able to reach that type of a outcome
fifteen percentile media outcome more likely tops out as a
third pairing defenseman or a tweener who gets some NHL
games but isn't full time. His offensive game isn't enough
to boost him higher, his defense isn't good enough to
keep him there. Style istic comparable in terms of style,
Mackenzie Wiger might be a comparable defenseman who is better
defensively and overall. Achy got injured relatively early in the season,
which hurt his development. Hopefully he can stay healthy in
the coming season. The NHL Rank King put bo Aichi
up against Andrew Gibson, and the result of doing this
is that, let's see the result of this Bowl. Is
that bo Aiki sixty percent to forty percent victor? Is
that how you rank him?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I guess.
Speaker 4: So It's worth talking a little bit more about Andrew
Gibson because I think not a lot of people heard
about him or know too much about him. He was
a twenty forty second overall pick, so he was actually
really drafted similarly, a little bit ahead of Bowiki, but
in a similar range. He's a six foot three right
handed D that Nashville took, and he also plays in
the O for the Suite Greyhounds, and so that right
handed D often Both of these guys being right handed
D can be a difficult role to phill. We don't
obviously know enough about bow Akis season, but Gibson had
a similar PNHL E this past season. He had forty
four points in sixty eight games for forty six PNHL E.
I do think that I would probably take Aky. I
think his skating is a little bit better. I don't
think the shoulder injury shouldn't affect that, and he's a
really strong skater and has some pretty good ability. So
far as far as it looks in the OHL, I'm
a little bit higher on him, but I do really
like what Nashville has been doing in terms of their draft,
so I also trust their drafting, and he seems Gibson
seems like a pretty decent option between the two, so
I would go aikey Looking at the hockey prospecting between
the two, it's actually pretty similar that both than the
sub ten percent chance of being a star with sub
fifty percent nhll er probability. Some other guys that look
like Boiki in the model. The one I came up
with is Nick Letty, who was an average producer, had
some seasons that were pretty good, but overall great skater,
not necessarily the best fantasy asset. I think Ak might
be similar to that. Looking at the j fresh card,
three percent chance of being a star eight percent chance
of being an NHL are a little bit more pistimistic
on Akey. I think Aki is going to be someone
who gets NHL time and plays. Maybe he's middle to
bottom pairing, but I don't think he's going to have
the high impact and fantasy that some people may be thinking.
Speaker 3: Jesse and Victor. Who is your keep your eye on prospect.
Speaker 4: We're going to go with Sam O'Reilly, who was just
drafted twenty twenty four, thirty second overall pick. In fact,
I believe the Oilers traded up to get him, and
he's a six foot one, one hundred and eight three
pounds right shot center, fifty six points and sixty eight
games for the OHL Champ London Knights, playing in a
little bit of a diminished role down the lineup a
little bit. So he had twelve points in sixteen playoff games.
And this was his first season in the OHL after
coming up from the Greater Ontario Hockey League Junior Hockey League,
which is a lower level, So that's pretty big jump
in competition level and he did great for a really
strong team. He's someone who I could see popping off
next season with the larger role for the London Knights.
He looking at his jay for sorry, his Mitch Brown
tracking data sixty six, a sixty four overall offense at
sixty three, defense at sixty seven percentile in his transition
game at forty five. So overall, this doesn't look a
lot like a player who should have been drafted in
the first round. But as often happens with the London Knights,
the time on ice is a little bit muted compared
to some of the older guys, and so it all,
it's often that you see greater production in the draft
plus one season. We'll have to keep an eye on that.
Looking at the per sixty numbers from the FHL player Card,
which is always good to look at because that tells
you a different story because it's based on per sixty
and not total time on ice. But you can see
that Sam Oiley looks a bit like a bash darling.
His hits and blocks are above ninetieth percentile. His shots
are seventieth percentile, so his bash rates out at ninetieth percentile,
which is pretty fantastic, So there should be a really
high peripheral floor there. His assists per six here in
the ninetieth percentile. If he can translate even most of that,
he will be a pretty valuable fantasy asset. Depends on
how much scoring there is, but he looks like he
could be pretty interesting. It lists him as a winger here.
He might be. He might not be a center full time.
We'll have to wait and see what happens with that.
Looking at the play driving card, you can see that
he actually does drive play pretty well in terms of
his fenwork and COURSI. He gets to the puck to
the high day in areas pretty well and sixty eighth
percentile for face off, so he was taking a fair
amount at least at this point. But let's learn a
little bit more about Sam Oiley from Ryfrid Schell Scout Jesse.
Speaker 3: Chill Scout Patricks says O'Reilly's an average skater, not great
at beginning or able to put on the extra speed
to get pass defenders. While he isn't the best technically,
he makes up for it with effort, making sure he
gets where he needs to be most of the time.
Sam's a very good passer in handler. He excels at
making touch passes to teammates and finding at the right
places to keep play going. He has good hands when
transporting the pucket cycling in the zone. Well'riiley has a
pretty quick and accurate shot, but the real key for
him at this point are his hands. He shoots best
in clothes and scored most of his goals from the crease.
IQ pretty high for O'Reilly. He sees the game, able
to anticipate. When under pressure, he maintains his composure and
works relentlessly to get a good pass out there to
a teammate, even when he gets tangled up board checking
hard worker on the for check. As they say, o'reiley
got that dog in him. He tries to get or
maintain the puck and works with his teammates to maintain
possession defense. Sam is a really good defensive forward. Multiple
times Patrick saw him skate back to try to stall
an odd man rush. In general, he skates back hard,
supports the defenseman in the D zone. And the best
asset then is the compete. The intensity he brings to
his game will lead him to keep trying to improve
all parts of his game. Skating's the biggest concern currently.
It's the area that needs the most work. If everything
develops well, this is a potential high end reciver, possibly
even getting time as a second line center. Justification is
he's got the two way game as the base to
get him to the NHL and the will to refine
his game, which will endear him coaches and possibly give
him time. The median outcome, maybe he tops out as
a three C or even a four C if he
can't refine his skating. Along with continuing to improve his
offense to some degree, his compete like will get some
some role in the NHL stylistic comparable Kelly Yarnkrock. In
the end, he's not likely to score a lot, but
he's going to be a defensive asset.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 3: Ridley got time on the power play and the penalty kill,
which showed the trust that coaches had in him to
perform in multiple situations. This was on a London Night's
team with a lot of talent. The NHL ranking poll
Samuel Riiley versus Emil Heming, Heming is through in a
route the Dallas Star sixty two to thirty eight percent.
What do you say, Victor.
Speaker 4: Those of you that listen to draft content know that
I'm an mL Heming guy. I love this guy. I
think that he showed a lot at the uaighteens. I
thought his shot is impressive. He can do more than
just shoot though he's a right shot, right wing, six one,
two hundred and five pounds. And I also have been
really trusting Dallas drafting recently. Obviously they've had some really
big hits with why Johnston, Jason Robertson, and obviously some
other guys that were drafted a little bit higher who
you expected, like Ikin and even Anger, although that's the
only goalie they've drafted in the last I don't know
seven or eight years who's been good. But Heming also
is really young June twenty seventh birthday, and he was
playing forty games in the and the Alga in the
top professional league, so not a lot of scoring there
eleven points in forty games, but playing being able to
play at that level was really impressive and it showed.
He did play at the U twenty World Junior Championships
and he was excellent for Finland at the UA Teens.
He should be in the OHL this year, which will
be interesting to see him come down to that level,
which is a little bit lower, and hopefully he lights
it up. But I love Emil Heming. I'm definitely taking him.
I think the upside is much higher than Sam o'riiley,
who I think at best is a middle six forward.
I'm not even sure he's the center, and I don't
think that the offensive upside is huge. We'll see maybe
he pops off in London this next year. As we
were talking about the pans between these two, looks higher
for Samurailey forty nine to thirty seven for Emal Heming,
but as I mentioned, I'm much higher on Hemming. Looking
at the hockey prospecting between the two also looks higher
for O'Reilly sixteen percent star potential to three percent, and
the NHL a probability higher for Samurailey at forty five
to eighteen. Looking at some other comps for Samuriley, Yeah,
there's some interesting ones here, maybe like a Kyle Palmery,
maybe like a Casey Middle stat. I think Jake Debrusk
is someone who looks a bit alike in this model,
someone who's a winger who has some average production average
to maybe blow average blow replacement level depending on the
league settings. I could see O'Reilly being that if he
makes it the j freshcard. Pretty pessimistic on Samurailey just
one percent chance of being a star, nine percent chance
of being an Hler, and I'm pretty pessimistic on him
being a star. I think there's maybe a little bit
more likelihood of an NHLer. We'll have to see. But
that's it for our oilers, DAG. If you're a patroon,
you can listen to my top ten prospect recap per team,
and if you're interested in scouting, to shoot me a
DM Twitter discord or email us.
Speaker 3: I see. We'll be right back to close up show.
A couple of things to mention before we get out
of here today. You can start your leagues on fan tracks.
Our shows brought to you by them. They have ten
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