Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcasts. You're home
Speaker 1: for crypto currency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
Speaker 1: On your way in. Please sit that subscribe button as
Speaker 1: well as a thumbs up button and leave a comment below.
Speaker 1: If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify
Speaker 1: or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks,
Speaker 1: I want to talk about September. Could we see a
Speaker 1: major rally given that August it adjusted based on the
Speaker 1: historical patterns and wasn't that great? And obviously BIGCIN is
Speaker 1: in a corrective phase right now. But as we were
Speaker 1: discussing in the previous podcast, Big One is approaching the
Speaker 1: over soul zone. And what we've seen is when we
Speaker 1: entered an over soul zone, we have a reversal and
Speaker 1: usually a rally. So this pattern has played out beautifully here.
Speaker 1: So you just look at the RSI and the daily chart,
Speaker 1: it shows that respective pattern and this applies to other
Speaker 1: assets as well. In addition, you have the stock market
Speaker 1: in p five hundred and the NASDAC all in a
Speaker 1: corrective phase right now. So could we enter September finding
Speaker 1: the bottom and maybe this second half of September we
Speaker 1: start rallying into October. Given the catalysts which we've talked
Speaker 1: about with crypto legislation will be passed and the Senate
Speaker 1: come October. You got Global M two right now topping
Speaker 1: out in late September. You have the China tariffs that
Speaker 1: are being pushed back by ninety days, which puts US
Speaker 1: in October, and you have a potential rate cut from
Speaker 1: the FED happening in September. So we'll have to wait
Speaker 1: and see. Obviously we don't have a crystal ball, but
Speaker 1: we're going to look at the data and major milestones
Speaker 1: or events that are going to take place in September
Speaker 1: as well as Q four that could signal the top. Now,
Speaker 1: as I've been telling you guys, you know, the market
Speaker 1: has been delayed due to the tariff crash. Everything got
Speaker 1: pushed back, So this bull market may top out in
Speaker 1: Q one of twenty twenty six. But right now, I'm
Speaker 1: going to stick to what the data is showing me
Speaker 1: that it's going to top out in Q four, maybe
Speaker 1: October November. And once again I don't have a crystal ball,
Speaker 1: so I can't give an exact date, but what we're
Speaker 1: looking for is the top zone when we are gonna
Speaker 1: start exiting your market taking profits, and I'll be sharing
Speaker 1: that with you guys, and I'll be sharing the different
Speaker 1: data points I'm looking at to validate my thesis. Not
Speaker 1: feelings or emotions, but what are the different signals we've
Speaker 1: seen historically playing out again, So folks, it's really a
Speaker 1: waiting game to stomach the volatility. And you know, if
Speaker 1: you look at bitcoin dominance, it is also continuing that
Speaker 1: down trend. So ETH has been rallying strong. Obviously right
Speaker 1: now it's correcting, but a lot of all coins have
Speaker 1: been stealing the liquidity and ETH is starting to outperform
Speaker 1: Bitcoin even though once again we're in a corrective phase.
Speaker 1: But overall, based on its movements over the past month,
Speaker 1: it's been doing really well. Now here's the chart from
Speaker 1: Jason Pisino. He's a great analyst, he has a great
Speaker 1: YouTube channel. He said, for the fourth year in a row,
Speaker 1: August will be read for bitcoin unless bitcoin pumps seven
Speaker 1: thousand dollars in an hour. So he posted us right
Speaker 1: before the weekly close. Obviously bitcoin didn't do that. So
Speaker 1: each August in this bullmarket has been a turning point
Speaker 1: for the bulls. Remain patient. So again no invalidation of
Speaker 1: the bullmarket thesis. Everything is still intact. But we're going
Speaker 1: to have pullbacks, We're going to have corrections. That is
Speaker 1: part for the course. So I love this chart here.
Speaker 1: It's the data is the facts, and we are seeing
Speaker 1: a pullback. And again the RSI heading to that over
Speaker 1: sol zone. It's what we've see in time and time again.
Speaker 1: Now here's some more data that supports the bull market.
Speaker 1: China's M two is breaking out, it's pumping. So just
Speaker 1: like the USM two, if you go to the Federal
Speaker 1: Reserves website, you can pull this up. By the way,
Speaker 1: M two has been on the rise, just going parabolic
Speaker 1: here and as of July, which is you know, a
Speaker 1: month ago, it is continuing to rise. So that's why
Speaker 1: we see global liquidity and we've been tracking this for
Speaker 1: the past a year and a half has been one
Speaker 1: of the indicators we're using because the more money they
Speaker 1: put in the system, folks, the more assets are going
Speaker 1: to increase. And we've been in a macro bull market
Speaker 1: for all assets, crypto stocks, precious metals, real estate, and
Speaker 1: just yesterday we were talking about goals charted. Goal is
Speaker 1: starting to break out again. So again I hope you
Speaker 1: see what's happening. When you zoom out on the macro
Speaker 1: and you step away from the hourly, daily, one minute
Speaker 1: and so forth, you see the thesis is still in
Speaker 1: play here. So this is really great. Yesterday I highlight
Speaker 1: a raal pals updated Global Liquidity or Global M two
Speaker 1: chart which shows again the top coming in around Q four,
Speaker 1: although right now it's starting to make a reversal, but
Speaker 1: it hasn't hit new highs yet. So if this starts
Speaker 1: making new highs, then you know, we'll update our thesis that, hey,
Speaker 1: this thing could continue into Q one of twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1: So I hope you understand why we're saying right now
Speaker 1: to higher probability is Q four blow off top versus
Speaker 1: Q one twenty twenty six. But if the data, you know,
Speaker 1: as it gets update daily and weekly and monthly, shows hey,
Speaker 1: this thing is starting to rip again, then we'll adjust
Speaker 1: our thesis accordingly and plan accordingly as well. Now whales
Speaker 1: continue to buy on chain data from sentiment shows while
Speaker 1: it's with ten or more, Bitcoin are on the rise,
Speaker 1: so they continue to accumulate. Folks, they're buying the dips,
Speaker 1: and even with Global M two e theorem is following
Speaker 1: pretty closely, so just like Bitcoin eight is following here.
Speaker 1: So guys, things are still on track. I personally believe
Speaker 1: that we bottom out in the first half of September
Speaker 1: and then second half we go bonkers, or maybe it
Speaker 1: happens sooner, right, it doesn't have to be necessarily September fifteenth.
Speaker 1: Maybe it comes around the eighth or ninth or whatever
Speaker 1: it is, and then we start rallying. But key takeaway,
Speaker 1: get ready September could be big and the start of
Speaker 1: our rally into October because it doesn't happen in one
Speaker 1: day or one week, right, this is going to play
Speaker 1: out over months, and then we hit new highs for
Speaker 1: bitcoin and all coins and once again we want to
Speaker 1: look for that top zone or even if it's a
Speaker 1: local top, if we're going to take profits there. So guys,
Speaker 1: September could be really good. Right now, it doesn't feel
Speaker 1: that way, right because if you look at the markets,
Speaker 1: it's pretty rough. You look at bitcoy, and you look
Speaker 1: at ethereum, you look at XRP, everything's down. But again
Speaker 1: no invalidation, right, So your feelings, your emotions, the media
Speaker 1: and all the narratives you're going to see from bears
Speaker 1: are going to be like it's over the top SID
Speaker 1: but that does not align with the data. And look,
Speaker 1: bears are shorting. You know, they won this small battle,
Speaker 1: but they're not winning the war because we're still in
Speaker 1: the ball market. Just like they were calling the top
Speaker 1: being in in the tariff crash, right, just like they
Speaker 1: were calling the top being in at every rally. That's
Speaker 1: cool down. This is what they do because they want
Speaker 1: you to sell, they want you to be in fear,
Speaker 1: and they short the market. But we're looking at the data.
Speaker 1: We're not here to look at emotions. We're not operating
Speaker 1: by emotions. Guys, September could be really good and I think,
Speaker 1: you know, we're going to see the bottoming and a
Speaker 1: reversal to the upside and the start of the parabolic
Speaker 1: phase in my opinion. Now, folks, quick word from our sponsor,
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Speaker 1: in the description. Now, folks, along the lines of what
Speaker 1: we've been talking about with whales accumulating, we got to
Speaker 1: report here that businesses are absorbing bitcoin four x faster
Speaker 1: than it's being mined. So there's so much buying from
Speaker 1: the digital asset treasury, companies, from et apps and much more.
Speaker 1: It's outpacing the amount of bitcoin that's being mined. So
Speaker 1: that's really good. You're going to have a supplying demand
Speaker 1: shock as things progress, and you know, the market heats
Speaker 1: up and it gets crazy. So private businesses and public
Speaker 1: companies are absorbing bitcoin nearly four times faster than the
Speaker 1: rate at which miners are producing new coins. According to
Speaker 1: bitcoin financial services company River. These businesses included publicly traded
Speaker 1: bitcoin treasury companies and conventional or private businesses, which collectively
Speaker 1: purchase one thousand, seven hundred and fifty five bitcoin per
Speaker 1: day on average and twenty twenty five according to River.
Speaker 1: So again you've got buying on all fronts. So this
Speaker 1: is really good. It bodes well for the continuation of
Speaker 1: the market. I often state that these people are not
Speaker 1: buying at this point of the market if the top
Speaker 1: was in. They know that there's another leg up where
Speaker 1: they're going to make a nice return, be able to
Speaker 1: do the arbitrage, whether they're stock or you know, as
Speaker 1: far as et aps. They're putting their clients funds in
Speaker 1: it and looking to make their clients money of course,
Speaker 1: So again these are all signals that the top is
Speaker 1: not in. So this is very very bullish. Now, speaking
Speaker 1: of treasury companies, Solana treasury firm, Defied Development Corp. Expands
Speaker 1: to the UK plans further global launches. So I interviewed
Speaker 1: the CEO of Defied Development Corp about a couple months ago,
Speaker 1: and like the bitcoin treasury companies, they're looking to grab
Speaker 1: as much of the acid as possible do the stock arbitrage,
Speaker 1: and of course with Solana you have the staking yield
Speaker 1: and some DeFi opportunities as well. So this is very
Speaker 1: interesting that they're expanding globally. So the Boca Raton based
Speaker 1: firm will become the first US crypto treasure refirm to
Speaker 1: enter the UK, winning new subsidiary, according to an announcement
Speaker 1: on Friday dub dfdv UK. The company also claims to
Speaker 1: be the first Solana focused public treasury vehicle in the UK.
Speaker 1: The company is being formed by an acquisition of CycL Ai,
Speaker 1: a firm that was listed on the London Stock Market
Speaker 1: under the ticker cyk dot l folks. This is very
Speaker 1: interesting because we've seen primarily these folks just operating in
Speaker 1: the US, but therefore they're going to do a global push.
Speaker 1: This changes the game. It brings in more capital from
Speaker 1: around the world, and the more capital they raise, the
Speaker 1: more assets they're going to buy. So if you hold
Speaker 1: the respective assets that are being bought, like Solana, like
Speaker 1: eth like bitcoinders, even XRP and others, that's going to
Speaker 1: bode well for those assets and their prices. Right, So
Speaker 1: very bullish and I do want to give the word
Speaker 1: of caution note that I've been giving for a while.
Speaker 1: That is, it seems a bubble is forming here. And
Speaker 1: it's not to say that these guys are doing anything bad,
Speaker 1: but when you have folks using leverage, and a lot
Speaker 1: of them are doing, you know, billions of dollars in
Speaker 1: capital raises again, raising the debt to go buy the asset.
Speaker 1: What happens when the bear market comes and not every
Speaker 1: company is going to be run the same, you know,
Speaker 1: the same operating standards someone may have. CEOs are not great,
Speaker 1: or general managers are not that are not great, or
Speaker 1: whatever it is, right, so you could see some collapses.
Speaker 1: And when you have this much leverage being piled up again.
Speaker 1: I'm not calling for a collapse. I'm not called I
Speaker 1: don't want anybody to have this. But history is on
Speaker 1: our side here when we talk about the potential collapse
Speaker 1: of some of these companies, some not all. So one
Speaker 1: of the things I've often said is I'm concerned about
Speaker 1: sailor because it's one thing that takes some cash on
Speaker 1: your balance sheet, and by the asset, let's say you
Speaker 1: take twenty to twenty five percent, it's another to go
Speaker 1: raise billions of dollars put yourself in debt, right, so
Speaker 1: you're leveraging up yourself and then to go bid the
Speaker 1: asset that's volatile, and then when the market downturns or
Speaker 1: there's a you know, some sort of bear market, what
Speaker 1: is going to happen. So this is where you got
Speaker 1: to watch out. This is why we want to take
Speaker 1: our profits and get the hell out, so we're not
Speaker 1: here holding the bag when some of these things collapse.
Speaker 1: And every bear market there's something that collapses, right, and
Speaker 1: then the narrative flips to cryptos a scam. Right, it's
Speaker 1: the same cycle. Cool pattern. But again, we as educated investors,
Speaker 1: we want to be on the side of smart money,
Speaker 1: not dumb money. We don't just read headlines. We're looking
Speaker 1: at the facts, the on chain data, SEC filings, We're
Speaker 1: looking at facts, where is capital being invested, who's making
Speaker 1: what moves, what adoption is happening. So that is why
Speaker 1: we don't listen to Jim Kramer and people on financial news.
Speaker 1: We're looking at the details, the facts that it's not
Speaker 1: being shared on the mainstream media, right guys. So let's
Speaker 1: see how this plays out. But this is a very
Speaker 1: interesting move and you can imagine game theory is going
Speaker 1: to play out here. The other digital ascid treasury companies
Speaker 1: are going to do the same thing. Now, this is
Speaker 1: an interesting one. Elon must lawyer to chair doge coin treasury,
Speaker 1: raising two hundred million dollars per report from Fortune. This
Speaker 1: is insane. I can't believe somebody's going to do a
Speaker 1: dogecoin treasury. But if it's attached to Elon, Elon's lawyer,
Speaker 1: what can I say? Guys? What can I say? You know,
Speaker 1: I've often stated that I have a love hate relationship
Speaker 1: with mean coins. I believe in the frame market, so
Speaker 1: I don't believe in banning anything, but I do believe
Speaker 1: in regulating put into guardrails and to protect consumers. I
Speaker 1: don't believe people should be getting rugged, you know, like
Speaker 1: pump dot fund is maybe an example that should be
Speaker 1: heavily regulated. But if you're investing in dogecoin, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't have a problem with that. Dose Coin's been
Speaker 1: around for multiple cycles, has a strong branding community, has
Speaker 1: developers actually building, and now it doesn't have the best
Speaker 1: utility as far as you know, It's not solving a
Speaker 1: major world problem, right, but a lot of people believe
Speaker 1: in it and a lot of merchants accepted. So it
Speaker 1: has this strong network effect, it has mass penetration. A
Speaker 1: lot of people know about it. But should it be
Speaker 1: a treasury strategy asset. I don't think so. I think
Speaker 1: many of you would agree with me. Let me give
Speaker 1: it a details because this is while elon must personal
Speaker 1: lawyer Alex Shapiro is listed as a chairman for a
Speaker 1: dogecoin digital acid treasury company aiming to raise two hundred
Speaker 1: million dollars, according to a report from Fortune on Friday,
Speaker 1: which cited anonymous sources. Here's a quote. Investors are receiving
Speaker 1: pitches for a dogecoin treasury company that will invest in
Speaker 1: a token. Fortune reported the company plans to raise at
Speaker 1: least two hundred million dollars. Report said, adding that when
Speaker 1: the digital Acid Treasury company would launch is unknown. Now
Speaker 1: if Elon's lawys involved, I can imagine Elon's gonna pump
Speaker 1: the hell out of this like he has historically. So
Speaker 1: maybe this is where he enters the market. He's been
Speaker 1: very silent about crypto, you know since the bull market started.
Speaker 1: You know, in the previous bull market, he went on
Speaker 1: Saturday Night Live. He just put bigcoin in his prof
Speaker 1: all kinds of stuff. So if he comes out and
Speaker 1: he's saying, hey, this is a company that's investing in
Speaker 1: dogecoin and blah blah blah, and he pumps it, watch out,
Speaker 1: that's one of those top signals. Right, So this is interesting. Nevertheless,
Speaker 1: and I don't know how I feel about this being
Speaker 1: a digital acid treasury company. And it goes back to
Speaker 1: my thoughts that I just said, a bubble is forming, right,
Speaker 1: So again you want look, some of you may be
Speaker 1: financially in a place where you don't need to take profits,
Speaker 1: that's why, you know, God blessed. But those of you
Speaker 1: who are looking to take profits to pay off debt
Speaker 1: or buy a house or whatever, Right, this is where
Speaker 1: we're gonna want to have a plan and identified that
Speaker 1: top zone and start taking profits because we don't want
Speaker 1: to be in that bear market. Guys, I think you
Speaker 1: see your gut. You know, your reason would tell you here,
Speaker 1: logic would tell you there is a bubble forming here
Speaker 1: when you have news like this, guys, right, very very
Speaker 1: risky people are getting more risky, and usually that happens
Speaker 1: as we head towards the top. Now, you know, we
Speaker 1: often talk about the token economy and across the globe.
Speaker 1: You're going to have governments and businesses and much more
Speaker 1: launch tokens and everything will be running on blockchains. I've
Speaker 1: often said, the government, the economies, and the markets will
Speaker 1: all run on blockchain. Look at this japan Post Bank
Speaker 1: eyes twenty twenty six rollout of the dcjpy deposit token
Speaker 1: for asset settlement. So to all the people who are
Speaker 1: saying this is all a scam, blockchain is fake blockchains
Speaker 1: like the fax machine or whatever, right whatever flood they
Speaker 1: put out here, the biggest institutions on Wall Street, the
Speaker 1: central banks, many governments are all embracing this building with it,
Speaker 1: regulating it. So Japan's post bank plans to let customers
Speaker 1: convert savings into tokenized deposits on a permission blockchain as
Speaker 1: early as the fiscal year twenty twenty six. The NK
Speaker 1: reported the bank will use the dcjpy token and network
Speaker 1: from Japanese firm the current or decurrent DCP, which was
Speaker 1: announced in August twenty twenty four. Japan's post banks one
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty million accounts holding one point twenty nine
Speaker 1: trillion in deposits, and that's one point two nine trillion dollars.
Speaker 1: By the way, we'll be able to use the token
Speaker 1: for easier tokenized security settlement. Guys, you see the direction
Speaker 1: to puck is heading in. Right. This is not making
Speaker 1: the major headlines on Fox, CNN, MSNBC wherever New York Times.
Speaker 1: But this is why we are researching. We're educating ourselves
Speaker 1: to be up to date with what's happening here, because
Speaker 1: you're not going to hear. Oh, the Bank of Japan
Speaker 1: is doing all these things, and here's they're going to
Speaker 1: use a private blockchain. And again, see where the puck
Speaker 1: is heading in. This is why I am bullish, not
Speaker 1: just on this bull market, but the next bull market,
Speaker 1: which I hope you're going to come on the ride
Speaker 1: with me, to buy the bloody bear market, to buy
Speaker 1: the blood in the street when everybody's fearful, and then
Speaker 1: prepare for the next euphoric red zone. Rinse and repeat,
Speaker 1: and get as much money out of this market as
Speaker 1: possible because eventually the volatility the returns won't be there
Speaker 1: due to more liquidity, more adoption. You're not gonna have
Speaker 1: the same level of returns, right, guys, You're gonna have
Speaker 1: that depreciating returns there not to say, you won't make money,
Speaker 1: but you know you won't have the same upside, you know,
Speaker 1: making three hundred to four hundred to one thousand percent
Speaker 1: on some of these coins. Right, it's not gonna be
Speaker 1: there forever, so let's move ahead. El Salvador splits bitcoin
Speaker 1: holdings between fourteen addresses to enhance security against quantum threats.
Speaker 1: So this is interesting. So analysts have said the quantum
Speaker 1: community threat to bitcoin remains years away. The office claims
Speaker 1: to buy one bitcoin each day through the country. These
Speaker 1: top finance ministers told the IMF in July that the
Speaker 1: government has not bought bigquin since February of this year,
Speaker 1: so they've been buying in the bear markets. So I
Speaker 1: don't expect them to continue to buy. And they have
Speaker 1: to be fiscally smart here, right and responsible not to
Speaker 1: be buying at the top or you know, at these
Speaker 1: high prices, because let's be honest, we're headed to that
Speaker 1: top zone and that's not a place to be buying
Speaker 1: unless you have some sort of arbitrage set up. But
Speaker 1: they don't. They're just buying and hoddling, right, But their
Speaker 1: holdings are up significantly, and it's interesting that they are
Speaker 1: doing this and we'll see what quantum threats are going
Speaker 1: to do to the crypto market. I do believe quantum
Speaker 1: comes along and it's a threat. Crypto is the last
Speaker 1: thing we need to worry about because the traditional system
Speaker 1: you can imagine, right, is going to be in trouble,
Speaker 1: the banking system, the credit card system, and so forth.
Speaker 1: And I do believe that a lot of like for Examp,
Speaker 1: bitcoin miners are going to upgrade their miners to use
Speaker 1: quantum tech. Same thing with other blockchains, right, So it
Speaker 1: will be these these innovations are going to happen in parallels.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's that big of a threat, but
Speaker 1: it's good to be prepared. So I think this is
Speaker 1: a smart move on their part. Folks. That's the news.
Speaker 1: Let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and
Speaker 1: comments below hit the thumbs up button, folks. A great
Speaker 1: way you can support me by subscribing to my free
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Speaker 1: is available in paperback and digital. Also check out my
Speaker 1: course at Mycrypto course dot com. This is a comprehensive
Speaker 1: course that teaches you everything about cryptos. To check it out.
Speaker 1: All the links will be in a description. Folks, thank
Speaker 1: you so much for watching and listening. I appreciate you all,
Speaker 1: and I'll talk to you all later