Speaker 1: Monday, August seventeenth. Here is what makes today a bit dangerous.
Speaker 1: MSCI might be about to blow up the bitcoin treasury trade.
Speaker 1: This summer calm we are seeing it might be a
Speaker 1: bit of a trap. By the end of this you
Speaker 1: will know exactly who is on the hook as regulators
Speaker 1: start looking closer at the biggest crypto hordes. But first
Speaker 1: a quick word from our sponsor. Okay, so here's what's happening.
Speaker 1: The company micro Strategy bought zero bitcoin last week. Instead,
Speaker 1: they put one hundred and fifty million dollars into their
Speaker 1: cash reserves. This comes just as MSCI is thinking about
Speaker 1: kicking them out of global indexes, which would force big
Speaker 1: passive funds to sell. Bitcoin is holding steady around sixty
Speaker 1: three thousand dollars, while Ethereum is sitting near nineteen hundred.
Speaker 1: The total market cap is at two and a quarter trillion.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin still makes up about fifty six percent of the market.
Speaker 1: Looking at DeFi, the total value locked is around seventy
Speaker 1: five billion. Stable Coin supply is flat at three hundred
Speaker 1: eight billion, growing less than one percent, and that Fear
Speaker 1: and Greed index it is down to thirty one. People
Speaker 1: are definitely feeling the fear right now. Tokenized assets is
Speaker 1: the strongest narrative today, up about one hundred and eleven
Speaker 1: percent over seven days. Circle Internet Group Onto Tookenized stock
Speaker 1: is the top coin in that sector, up a few
Speaker 1: percent over seven days. Money is moving across sectors, not
Speaker 1: one pocket first up. MSCI is looking at dropping MicroStrategy
Speaker 1: and Metaplanet from its global indexes. Why because they do
Speaker 1: not really operate a business in the traditional sense. They
Speaker 1: mostly just hold bitcoin. If this goes through by mid October,
Speaker 1: expect a lot of force selling from index funds. If
Speaker 1: it fails, the treasury trade stays alive. Next, the occ
Speaker 1: gave a conditional green light to World Liberty Trust for
Speaker 1: their USD one stable coin. This lets a Trump linked
Speaker 1: group takeover issuance from bitgo. It is a big step
Speaker 1: for crypto companies acting like banks, but Senate Democrats are
Speaker 1: already pushing back. If it gets final approval in thirty days,
Speaker 1: it becomes a federally watched asset. Third, Austria just handed
Speaker 1: out the first penalty under the new MICA rules. They
Speaker 1: find bit Panda seventy thousand euros for marketing issues. It
Speaker 1: is a small amount, but it shows the rules are
Speaker 1: finally being enforced. If we see more of these, expect
Speaker 1: exchanges to get a lot pickier about what they list. Fourth,
Speaker 1: bitcoin options are still expensive. Traders are paying a premium
Speaker 1: for protection, which tells us they are worried about a
Speaker 1: surprise move. It is like buying hurricane insurance when there
Speaker 1: is only a light breeze. Finally, the Minor Hive just
Speaker 1: signed a three hundred and fifty million dollar AI cloud deal.
Speaker 1: Miners are moving into AI compute to survive very thin margins.
Speaker 1: It is a way to protect themselves if bitcoin prices
Speaker 1: stay weak. If more miners do this, the pressure on
Speaker 1: the network might ease up. All right, before we get
Speaker 1: into the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about what to watch for. The risk map
Speaker 1: is flashing a few warnings. First, that fear index at
Speaker 1: thirty one combined with expensive options means the crowd is
Speaker 1: braced for a drop. Second, stable coin growth is basically flat,
Speaker 1: so there is no new fuel for a big rally. Third,
Speaker 1: between the MEKA fines and the occ moves, the rules
Speaker 1: are changing fast. The bottom line, buyers are being careful
Speaker 1: because we are in a bear market and liquidity is
Speaker 1: very thin. That only changes if we see stable coin
Speaker 1: supply jump or if MSCI decides to leave the bitcoin
Speaker 1: hoarders alone. Keep an eye on three things this week.
Speaker 1: There is a meeting at the White House with crypto
Speaker 1: CEOs that Trump is expected to attend that could signal
Speaker 1: where policy is headed. Then there are the rolling FED
Speaker 1: press releases, which always move the needle on risk. And finally,
Speaker 1: watch for market insights from Galaxy to see if the
Speaker 1: big institutional desks are buying or selling. If you got
Speaker 1: something out of this, send it to a friend who's
Speaker 1: into crypto. That's the best way to support us. This
Speaker 1: is educational content, not investment advice. Always do your own research.
Speaker 1: I'm Alex, See you next time.