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Speaker 2: And welcome.
Speaker 3: You are listening to the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,
Carrie Lutz. Well, silver prices trading at thirteen maybe fourteen
year high is at this point I just looked at
my screen thirty six and a half bucks. I mean,
finally the world's catching on. But someone who's caught on
a long time ago, who's actually predicting history before it
gets written.
Speaker 2: Bob hoy, Bob. Great to have you back on the show.
Speaker 4: Hi, Carrie.
Speaker 5: Good to be with you and our listeners out there.
Speaker 3: Absolutely and it's always great to connect with you. So
let's not talk about politics or the politics in the
direct outcropping or outgrowth of economics.
Speaker 2: What's happening now? Where are we now?
Speaker 3: I mean we got thirty three hundred dollars gold that
seems to be resistance at this point, thirty six and
a half bucks silver. We're talking us, of course, where
does that leave us?
Speaker 5: Well, we'll just this has been a great financial bubble.
Speaker 6: And the first one was the South Seat bubble in
seventeen twenty and then the ones that followed, like.
Speaker 5: Twenty nine was number five, were number six, and each
of them carried It is remarkably similar patterns as you
went through it, although although the speculating public doesn't have
a roadmap, it is able of doing it. Within this,
you have.
Speaker 4: Real gold price.
Speaker 5: Deflated by the CPI rather into inflation, and.
Speaker 6: In a great bubble, in the final stage of it,
the final year, the deflated pricycled from.
Speaker 5: And then it goes up, and the go.
Speaker 6: Goes real price has been going up. And then also
I like to use gold divided by this TRB commodity
in this and I assume that the CRB is.
Speaker 4: A proxy for mining costs. And in this case, you.
Speaker 5: Don't have to focus focus on the dollar price of gold.
Speaker 4: You look at the deflated price of gold.
Speaker 6: And if gold bullion is outperforming the mining costs in
the gold mining business is making money, isn't it so?
And that has been the case in all of the
post bubble depressions. Everything else is under pressure base metals, industry, commerce, agriculture,
but goals real price going up makes the gold mining
sector very viable, and so it is.
Speaker 5: It's important to follow Goes real price.
Speaker 7: And then the next one is the real price of copper,
representing base metals all together.
Speaker 5: And uh, copper real price goes up with the bubble
and down with the bust. And to give you idea
of how copper stocks.
Speaker 6: Can can do, our base metal stocks can do the
eighteen seventy three boom.
Speaker 4: We usually we.
Speaker 6: Stumbled on an index of mining and smelting companies from
that period, and that index had a high of around
four hundred.
Speaker 5: In seventeen eighteen seventy three, and fifteen years later it
was down to about forty.
Speaker 6: The the base metal miners were disaster by that measure.
And then the other one that you get is that
gold the senior currency becomes chronically firm, and of course
US dollar is the senior currency, and countries like Argentina
that oh huge amount to dollars into doing payable in
New York really don't like the firm dollar. And this
is what really firms said that if you've got the
bubble over, and then the world financial.
Speaker 5: System turns to servicing debt.
Speaker 6: And if most of the debt or a majority of
the debt has been written in US dollars doing payable
in New.
Speaker 5: York, that's what makes a chronically firm senior currency. And
it's it's going to be exasperating.
Speaker 6: To the Federal Reserve, who's the only policy they the fence.
There is only no one policy depreciation and whatever is
going on now, the remedy is to depreciate the currency.
So here you have you're going to have the frustration
of the Federal Reserve not being able to depreciate its
own currency.
Speaker 4: I mean policy making will be by the bye. So
so that's that one. And then and so this it
all adds up two and the four key points are.
Speaker 6: I say that in aggregate they are marking the transition
from a great financial bubble to a great depression.
Speaker 5: And I'll use that term meaning that, you know, a
great depression. But and but within this, as I say,
and to.
Speaker 6: Repeat, the gold mining becomes very prosperous and it's wonderful.
Speaker 5: And actually the big gold rushes when there was surface alluvial.
Speaker 6: Gold available to discovered eighteen ninety five or eighty ninety seven,
the Klondike eighteen forty five, the California gold Russias, Well,
they were a natural phenomenon because you had a high real.
Speaker 5: Price for gold and the world knows it.
Speaker 6: And then at the same time, with a great depression,
you had a huge number of men unemployed.
Speaker 5: So then that's where when alumia.
Speaker 6: Gold was discovered at a surface, they prospectors they went
to California.
Speaker 8: In eighteen forties, and then in the Klondike in eighteen
ninety eight or whenever that one was in ninety seven.
Speaker 6: So it's fascinating that the great gold gold rushes in
history have occurred with high unemployment.
Speaker 5: And a high price for gold. So now would once
look for another great gold rush.
Speaker 6: Probably all of the major surface gold alluvial gold deposits
have been found, probably.
Speaker 4: And so there's not going to be that kind of
a rush. So it seems to me that.
Speaker 5: The gold rush could occur in the stock markets.
Speaker 6: For a big gold star gold companies, Middland sized ones,
and even juniors.
Speaker 5: And this is where.
Speaker 4: More than a year ago we put together a.
Speaker 5: List of how they look like promising junior gold stocks.
They were included produced small producers, reproduction.
Speaker 9: And boss them outright edecoration items and some of those
have done rather well.
Speaker 10: And one of our the lists on that it's called
Casego Resources, and I am involved with the company it now.
Speaker 11: It has coming into visibility because it's cut and training.
Speaker 5: Up and out of the h exchange here and onto
the ts X and that then opens the marketability for
the company greatly. At the same time, the company is
preparing for UH drilling down in. The property is in
Colombia and close to the Brazilian border, so it's quite
a bit south there, and the locals like us, and
even there's a little content like it's an amusing.
Speaker 4: A little story care the local contingent of FAARC, the
sort of terrorist.
Speaker 6: Group from Peru or wherever there's a local little contingent
of fa r C there and the local natives in
our camp it's like them because they.
Speaker 5: Keep the environmentalists away. So everything is.
Speaker 12: Fine for that area of Columbia to be working in.
Speaker 6: And the company's stock has just started to increase in volume,
as it said, because it gets it's coming out of
the age and there's work started, so there's actually quite
an increase in volume in the stock here today.
Speaker 5: So that's one of our lists.
Speaker 13: That have moved in this week to the forefront.
Speaker 4: So pass that on to our listeners.
Speaker 2: Very exciting.
Speaker 3: So is there any way for these brilliant bureaucrats to
actually rescue the system or is it too far gone?
Speaker 5: Oh? Overall? No, I think it is what.
Speaker 6: I call, and I haven't published this yet, what I
call it tyrannical century.
Speaker 12: And if we just.
Speaker 6: Take a look of history since the early nineteen hundreds.
Speaker 5: It's been wars.
Speaker 11: Conductive upond countries, and then that's been the bearcrats and
politicians will conduct the war against their own citizens. So
it's been wars and chronic currency depression, inflation and intrusion
in private life and each of these.
Speaker 13: But this is the third one, Terry. The first one
was with Rome in the third century. And you say, okay,
well where's your price index? Well, you don't have a
price index.
Speaker 6: But the Romans were very good at documenting their currency depreciations.
And there was one horrendous depreciation where.
Speaker 5: Our currency was a five.
Speaker 9: And no.
Speaker 5: Denomination with fifty.
Speaker 6: Silver and it ended up with three denomination.
Speaker 4: With just a silver wash.
Speaker 14: And then that court inflation went wild, and Diocletian was
the emperor then, and he was he had an able
administration and wanted to do things, so he put on
price and wage controlled and that turned out to be a.
Speaker 5: Disaster, and then the whole thing collapsed, marking the end.
Speaker 6: Of the first Tyrannical century. Then the next one started
in fifteen hundred when all of the silver and gold
bullions started to come over from the New World and arriving.
Speaker 4: In Seville support of civilia. Spain was the supreme power.
Speaker 5: Then and it was unprecedented wealth.
Speaker 4: But this shows you what governments are like. The greatest
windfall in history was not enough. They had to brawl
like man and depreciate the currency, and that then marked.
Speaker 2: The end of.
Speaker 4: Spain as the supreme power. It just collapsed.
Speaker 6: And the next one started in the early nineteen hundreds.
You had all of the stories about Marxism and Leninism
and theories, and.
Speaker 4: You also had governments in Ain becoming.
Speaker 5: Overactive and resorting.
Speaker 4: To the printing brash shore we say currency evaluation and
it's run its course. But twenty years.
Speaker 5: And we should look for guidance on this one is England.
Speaker 15: And the.
Speaker 5: Into the early thirteen hundreds because it did it. It
was you know, it had it did all of the
inflation things. And then oh sorry, early sixteen others, and
then that's when the reform started. People just said enough
big doll and England.
Speaker 6: Had a very gentle reform and it was wonderful.
Speaker 4: They called it. The following year Rater described it as
a glorious revolution, and they gained The year following.
Speaker 5: They came in with their Bill of Rights. So what
we're looking for now is another glorious revolution.
Speaker 9: And politics in the reading countries really could do with
another glorious revolution and send I think it is underway.
Speaker 6: So this is the big picture stuff on on that.
Speaker 5: And so what this means is that quite likely a
couple of decades of depression.
Speaker 6: The usual three to four year business cycle prevails, but
recovery is are week and the recessions are noticeable.
Speaker 4: But for those in gold business and those who appreciate
societal freedom, it's going to be getting into very very
good times.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 3: Well, there's always winners, there's always losers. I just want
to share with you an experience I had. I actually
was in Spain, visited Madrid and looking at it viewing
it from the historical lens of this was the greatest
empire on earth, the wealthiest, and they managed to blow
it and collapses, economic collapses, wars. Finally the Spanish Revolution,
Franco becomes the dictator, and then he dies in the seventies,
and then it opens up. And I was in Madrid
and looking at it through that lens, it's amazing to me.
The city works, it is clean, it's safe in most places,
and the traffic is not terrible. The infrastructure is really great.
They keep building and extending their subways. So perhaps countries
can come back from the abyss. Although obviously this was.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Spain seemed to miss some of the nastiness of
the eighties. And also it's interesting that Philip. I guess, yeah,
King and Emperor Philip, what's the powerful guy in the
big Spanish boom. That's why the Philippinanes are cast the
Philippines named after it, right.
Speaker 3: It's amazing, like so obviously I wouldn't call them exactly
a world power.
Speaker 2: They're one of the pigs. After all.
Speaker 3: The debts out of control there, just like everywhere else
in the world. I think what many people don't get
is that every country of the world is drowning in
the up to their eyeballs and debt, with the exception
of Russia. So whatever happens the global reset, it's got
to happen for everyone. It can't just happen for one.
I was just at the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas,
and let me tell you, Bob, there was more money there,
you know, sponsored by Blackstone, and it's just rolling in
cash like you cannot believe, you know, these booths it
was wasn't in the convention.
Speaker 5: Yeah, in a winning game. It's the amount of whilst
generated is stangering it is.
Speaker 3: I have a what was a relatively small position, but
it keeps getting bigger and bigger. I have a theory
about this, and I'm going to run it by you.
They can't reset the system to gold and silver if
they just They're never going to do that because it
means kind of giving up control. You know, there's a
lot of reasons not to do it. But if you
look at the greatest performing asset in the history of
the man, perhaps it's bitcoin ten cents ten cents fourteen
years ago would now be worth about one hundred and
seven or eight thousand dollars. Who's to say it can't
go a hundred or a thousand times more. And what
if the United States was sitting on the largest pile
of bitcoin of anybody in the world. We knew they've
seized it from numerous drug dealers, money lunderers, you name it,
everybody they are.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're just sitting on them.
Speaker 5: I got to point out therey that with the Great
Reformation have I been calling it, they the public will
force the Federal Reserve to go to a gold standard
gold convertibility. Yeah, and they And of course in England
they went off of seventeen.
Speaker 6: Ninety seven Napoleonic crazy period, they stop payments, went off
gold or with a financial crisis, and then oh yeah,
eighteen nineteen or so they pledged to get back on gold, and.
Speaker 4: I think by eighteen twenty five they were fully.
Speaker 5: Fully on gold convertibility for there or pound.
Speaker 2: And that might well be the case.
Speaker 3: But what I really believe is going to happen here
is that bitcoin will go to somewhere between ten and
fifty million per coin. The US will then turn around
and seek to pay off their debt using a bitcoin
based coin, And that I believe is how this thing ends,
rather than a collapse, which which in modern world we
can't have it. We can't have a currency, a global
currency collapse, because how do you get back from it?
Speaker 2: You know, there's no way to ever.
Speaker 5: He's someone that I entertained myself with carriers, as they say,
a chain as the example, they oh dollars due on
debt due and payable into New York. So the the
amount of money the debt bubble is effectively a short
position of US dollars because if you have brought money
in New York, that loan is due and payable in
US dollars in New York, in London area in New York.
Speaker 4: And this has been.
Speaker 5: The case in the past where the you know, earlier
it was sterling pound sterling and and.
Speaker 4: London was the financial center. And this is the way
it works.
Speaker 2: And all in the.
Speaker 5: Bubble is over. The world changes to paying down debt
and you got to pay it down into the world
financial center in senior currency units. And you know, going
from here's one that Gresham, the great creator from fifteen hundreds,
after which.
Speaker 15: Five days some writer guys called it Gresham's law, but
he pointed out in letters he was the financial agent
for the British Crown in the money market in Antwerp,
and he wrote letters to the.
Speaker 6: Crown advising and this is where he pointed out that
the worst thing in the world is to be servicing
debt from a weak currency to a firm senior currency.
Speaker 4: And at that time it.
Speaker 5: Was Antwerp and the Guilder and he actually got through
to the count Elizabeth and they did firm up Stirling
and that.
Speaker 4: Made debt service a whole lot better. So this is
this is pretty old stuff, but it's it's it's the
way financial markets work.
Speaker 3: Well, everything old is new again. But the dollar has
been weak, you know, it broke a hundred? Is it
coming back up? What's going to happen here?
Speaker 5: Well, I thought that they that spoke up to one
ten at year end was celebrating the beginning of Trump's
term of as president. And then that was that it
was overbought.
Speaker 6: And then then it got hit, you know, very hard,
in a very fast time.
Speaker 4: So our current look now for the.
Speaker 5: R DX is it just got trashed and now we
think it can We prefer that it.
Speaker 6: Would trade and narrow range sideways for a few months
and we'll see what happens there and then also we
want to keep in mind that a lot of the
good stuff happens as you get into mid year. Remember
the old thing selling me and go Away, and.
Speaker 5: All of the great financial bubbles as they occurred in
London peaked in May or June, and then did it
around in the summer months and then got nailed in
the fall beginning in late.
Speaker 13: September, and most of them had their dreadful time in
October and.
Speaker 4: Then sort of settled out and set a base and
cleared the markets in the middle of November.
Speaker 6: It's step one the eighteen twenty five bubble where the
forced liquidation went right through November and actually into the
first week in January. And I couldn't find any reason
for it. It just happened that way.
Speaker 5: So we are at the time of the year one
good times may be found. And then beginning in the fall,
you go.
Speaker 12: Into October and that typically has been the time if
there's going to be a discovery of a disaster, the
discovery of the meat in the fall.
Speaker 5: So that's what we want to keep our eye on, Carrie.
Speaker 2: In the fall.
Speaker 3: Well, it's always then, right, it always happens, it seems like.
But also we had some crashes in March as well,
but we're past March. We're on to We're on to
the bigger and better things here.
Speaker 2: Bob.
Speaker 3: Well, I know you got this list you hinted at.
Speaker 2: How do we get the list?
Speaker 5: Okay, yeah, just getting sending a request to me, Bob
along at Shaw dot ca A or two. You're off
us and just request the list of juniors, Bob Roy's
list of juniors, and we'll be glad to send it
to you.
Speaker 2: Excellent, all right, Bob. It's always a pleasure.
Speaker 3: If you've got a question for Bob or myself, you
want that list, Klatcarrie LUTs dot com. I know I've
got a couple of requests pending. I'll forward them off
to you, Bob and you can ship them out. Appreciate
your coming on. We will talk to you again soon,
but the things are definitely getting interesting.
Speaker 4: They are kery fun to talk with you.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network
Speaker 2: Now more than ever