1 00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:03,359 Speaker 1: Army Navy is this weekend, and of course we've got 2 00:00:03,359 --> 00:00:05,919 a handful of bowl games before we get into the 3 00:00:06,080 --> 00:00:09,320 college football playoff. Let's touch on some of those up 4 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:28,320 next on bet on It. We're gonna do a quicker 5 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:30,280 show today, guys, and you're welcome to let me know 6 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:32,399 in the comment section if you're not happy with that. 7 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:34,719 But some of these bowl games we gotta see if 8 00:00:34,719 --> 00:00:37,000 there's opt outs. We know there's gonna be coaching changes 9 00:00:37,039 --> 00:00:39,399 and so forth. Of course, next week we'll get into 10 00:00:39,439 --> 00:00:42,399 those college football playoff games. But this week we're gonna 11 00:00:42,439 --> 00:00:44,600 have a shorter show. We're gonna talk about Army Navy, 12 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,200 and then we're gonna give you best bets between now 13 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:51,479 and next Wednesday for these early bowl games. I'm Kelly Stewart, 14 00:00:51,719 --> 00:00:54,240 Yanni the Greek there in the middle, Marco D'Angelo on 15 00:00:54,359 --> 00:00:58,000 the end, Army Navy boys. For a long time, we 16 00:00:58,159 --> 00:01:00,439 just bought blindly bet the under here, right, This was 17 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:05,280 the fun thing to do. Now, Army's improved, well, at 18 00:01:05,359 --> 00:01:08,319 least maybe beat my Kansas State Wild's cats. We're not 19 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:12,200 going to talk about that. And Navy has absolutely improved 20 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,200 this season. We've seen their offense kicked into high gear. 21 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:16,760 So I want no part of this under. I'm going 22 00:01:16,799 --> 00:01:19,120 to say that already sitting here at thirty eight, but 23 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,879 Army is a six point underdog. VR Am I wrong 24 00:01:23,079 --> 00:01:25,040 in my assumptions about these offenses? 25 00:01:25,879 --> 00:01:27,879 Speaker 2: No? I mean, and that's the thing. 26 00:01:28,519 --> 00:01:33,519 Speaker 3: We've now seen this matchup forever, and that's always the 27 00:01:33,519 --> 00:01:34,640 first thing to look at. 28 00:01:34,799 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 2: Low scoring game. 29 00:01:35,879 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 3: How low is the total and is there any value 30 00:01:38,799 --> 00:01:43,840 in the under? Has been the setup historically. Now personally, 31 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,760 I have not taken a position on this game. Bet 32 00:01:46,799 --> 00:01:50,359 on it for college football thirty three and eleven so 33 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:52,280 far this year, about seventy five percent. 34 00:01:52,319 --> 00:01:52,959 Speaker 2: I'll take it. 35 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 3: Currently number one in college football over at wager talk, 36 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:58,920 So make sure you don't miss out on the bull season. 37 00:01:58,959 --> 00:02:02,480 That's where the money's really at, and luckily we're free rolling. 38 00:02:02,719 --> 00:02:05,959 With that said, Navy's had a great season, you know, 39 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,560 winning nine of eleven games, but they just haven't made 40 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:11,080 anybody any money unless you've been fading them. In fact, 41 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:15,199 they're four and seven ats, so the books have done 42 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:19,919 a really good job of defending against Navy. As far 43 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:22,680 as Army, it's a five hundred team, both straight up, 44 00:02:22,719 --> 00:02:26,080 both ats. But these teams are pretty comparable. And here's 45 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:28,879 what I mean. As far as my power ratings go, 46 00:02:29,719 --> 00:02:33,159 I have Navy ahead of Army by only a couple slots. 47 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:36,639 Both are in the seventies. Okay, as far as power 48 00:02:36,719 --> 00:02:39,680 rating goes, so there's not too many teams either would 49 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:43,960 be favored over. Now you have offense first defense. One 50 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,159 team's the better offense, one teams the better defense. Army 51 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:51,800 has a horrific offense. They're ranked over the one hundredth mark, 52 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,120 so there's one hundred teams in college football and the 53 00:02:54,159 --> 00:02:55,400 more efficient offense. 54 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:57,879 Speaker 2: All right, but they have a. 55 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:02,599 Speaker 3: Top fifty defense. And look at the Navy side. Offensively, 56 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:08,719 they're in top seventy defensively not even top eighty. So statistically, 57 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:12,280 both these teams are really really bad. But when I 58 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:15,800 look at strength of schedule, Armies had the tougher strength 59 00:03:15,879 --> 00:03:20,680 of schedule. So putting it all together, data wise, there's 60 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:24,520 not all that much that separates these two except for 61 00:03:25,199 --> 00:03:28,159 their straight up record, and some of that has to 62 00:03:28,199 --> 00:03:31,680 do with strength of schedule. The line came out at five, 63 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:36,520 initially got some Navy money, not surprising. They look like 64 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:38,840 the more attractive team on paper. Nine to two verse 65 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:41,560 six and five, and I think the public's gonna bet 66 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:43,520 that side. They're going to money line parlay them, They're 67 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:45,719 going to tease them, even though they shouldn't, they will. 68 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:49,560 I think Armies the side value wise. I think they're 69 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:52,000 able to keep it close, and it should be one 70 00:03:52,039 --> 00:03:54,120 of those games that come down to final possession or 71 00:03:54,159 --> 00:03:57,120 a field goal or a turnover either way. I don't 72 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,919 think Navy's gonna be able to win this game by mark. 73 00:04:00,879 --> 00:04:03,199 If you look at their wins, that just hasn't been 74 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:06,280 the case very few times. If they want a game 75 00:04:06,319 --> 00:04:09,639 by more than one score, it's why they haven't been covering. 76 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:12,439 They've been double digit favors throughout the season. So I 77 00:04:12,599 --> 00:04:15,159 like Army here. I haven't gotten to the window yet. 78 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:17,959 We got some time, but I grabbed the six with Army. 79 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:19,399 If I had to bet it today. 80 00:04:19,439 --> 00:04:21,279 Speaker 1: Marco I said it to start the show. I wasn't 81 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:23,279 gonna make this about me, but now VR is smart 82 00:04:23,399 --> 00:04:25,800 something and I'm going to make it about myself. One 83 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:27,560 of the things in that Case State game was what 84 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:29,199 Army was able to do in the second half was 85 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,480 control the time of possession. When you control the time 86 00:04:32,519 --> 00:04:37,680 and possession, obviously that makes for less variance in scoring. 87 00:04:38,199 --> 00:04:40,519 My little spider sensess just went off, and now I 88 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,959 also may be betting Army plus six. Do you agree 89 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:44,879 with VR? And I? 90 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:49,279 Speaker 4: Yeah, Kelly. The reason for it is simply this. These 91 00:04:49,319 --> 00:04:52,040 two teams are basic mirror images of each other. They 92 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:55,120 both run the football fifty plus times, and because they 93 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:58,639 both run the option, they're better prepared to stop it 94 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:02,879 because they see it every single day in practice. 95 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:05,720 Speaker 2: That's something the K State doesn't see. 96 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,519 Speaker 4: And when K State played them early in the season, 97 00:05:08,879 --> 00:05:11,519 K State, remember, Kelly, you know you went over to 98 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,759 Ireland and everything else. It was a pretty hectic first 99 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,680 month of the season four Kansas State, and they weren't 100 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,639 prepared to stop that option attack. And that's why a 101 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:25,279 team can control time of possession that way. We've also 102 00:05:25,399 --> 00:05:28,480 seen in the past the low scoring goal in this 103 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:31,639 series because of that, As you said, for how many 104 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:35,000 years this was basically, you know, just a dead stone 105 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:38,160 cold under. They couldn't put the total low enough. But 106 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,600 these teams have added a few new wrinkles where you 107 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:45,519 have seen them throw the football on occasion more often 108 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:48,920 in their surprise plays that generally are big plays. Whenever 109 00:05:48,959 --> 00:05:51,600 they connect on them. But even with that, we have 110 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:56,040 still seen the dog dominate this series. Recently, four of 111 00:05:56,079 --> 00:05:59,000 the last five meetings the dog has gotten the money. 112 00:05:59,439 --> 00:06:03,600 And couple games to point out from this year, Navy 113 00:06:03,639 --> 00:06:08,839 played air Force, you know in the Commander in Chief Series. 114 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:12,360 That game they were thirteen and a half point favorite. 115 00:06:12,439 --> 00:06:15,879 Navy what did they do? Won by three because they 116 00:06:15,959 --> 00:06:19,839 basically run the same offense. Army played air Force as well. 117 00:06:20,079 --> 00:06:23,560 They were one point favorite. What was the final score there? Yeah, 118 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:26,600 it was a three point game. Army wins. No need 119 00:06:26,639 --> 00:06:29,800 to overthink this one. It's the dog or pass. I'm 120 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:30,759 taking Army. 121 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:35,879 Speaker 1: Dogger pass. It sounds like me every single college football show. No, 122 00:06:36,079 --> 00:06:38,920 all jokes aside. Let's get into some of those best bets. 123 00:06:38,959 --> 00:06:42,439 I do have a dog for you guys in that category. 124 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:46,199 Now the art. Before we get into this set of 125 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:48,720 best bets, can you gotta let everybody know what your 126 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:51,079 thought process is headed into bolseason? 127 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:51,319 Speaker 2: Right? 128 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: So I bet, for example, Chris and I bet Clemson 129 00:06:54,959 --> 00:06:57,879 minus three early not early enough. We didn't bet minus one, 130 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,800 but we were hearing of some Penn State ops. We 131 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:02,959 saw that line go to three and a half. I'm 132 00:07:02,959 --> 00:07:05,399 just kind of sitting here waiting maybe we hear that 133 00:07:05,439 --> 00:07:08,120 those aren't true. How do you kind of shift out 134 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:10,879 some of the noise? What are you looking for? I 135 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:14,680 know you do a lot with power ratings, but trying 136 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:19,240 to power rate teams with completely different coaching changes, different quarterbacks, 137 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:22,360 different sets of receivers, motivation, and so forth is really 138 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:22,959 difficult to do. 139 00:07:23,519 --> 00:07:24,199 Speaker 2: It really is. 140 00:07:24,319 --> 00:07:26,519 Speaker 3: But this is that time of year where it's difficult 141 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,120 for the sports books as well to quantify some of 142 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:31,959 those factors. What exactly are they worth to the betting line? 143 00:07:31,959 --> 00:07:34,000 What kind of sample size do they have with that 144 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:38,000 type of information? So it's difficult for them as well. Luckily, 145 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:40,720 I work with different groups that try to get out 146 00:07:40,759 --> 00:07:44,600 ahead of the information, and therefore when I see multiples 147 00:07:44,639 --> 00:07:47,680 come in on the side, I'll piggyback that knowing that 148 00:07:47,759 --> 00:07:51,439 they probably do have solid information. But for most betters 149 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:54,279 that don't have access to that, I think they have 150 00:07:54,439 --> 00:07:58,279 to wait until the information is confirmed and then take 151 00:07:58,319 --> 00:08:02,680 advantage of the overreaction. It's very difficult when you have 152 00:08:02,759 --> 00:08:04,399 a job, when you have a family, when you have 153 00:08:04,439 --> 00:08:08,199 responsibilities to get out ahead of the betting market. 154 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 2: It's very difficult to do that. 155 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 3: It's hard enough for us who do nothing but look 156 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,639 at betting lines all day and are here ready to 157 00:08:14,639 --> 00:08:17,319 pull the trigger to get out ahead. If you don't 158 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:20,279 have that ability, then again you need to wait and 159 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,639 take advantage of those narratives that aren't warranted. And in 160 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:26,240 both season you're going to hear a lot of that. Again, 161 00:08:26,399 --> 00:08:30,600 players aren't playing, coaches are leaving, there's an over reaction. 162 00:08:30,879 --> 00:08:33,440 In fact, one of the premiums I released through subscribers 163 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:37,960 already in both season four percent is based on that 164 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:42,080 information alone. I thought there was an overreaction to a 165 00:08:42,159 --> 00:08:45,679 coach not being there for the bowl game. We didn't 166 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,559 get out ahead of that information. But after the line 167 00:08:48,639 --> 00:08:52,120 was adjusted four five six points, I actually now think 168 00:08:52,159 --> 00:08:55,000 the values on Team B. So I'm not afraid to 169 00:08:55,039 --> 00:08:58,200 go against the sharp money after they move a line 170 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,399 so significantly, because you got to remember, they stop betting 171 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:04,720 it for a reason. Otherwise, if they're still ev there, 172 00:09:04,879 --> 00:09:07,440 they're gonna fire. I know that because that's what I 173 00:09:07,519 --> 00:09:10,080 do for a living. So when there's still value on 174 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:12,919 the board, they'll come back and hit it again. When 175 00:09:12,919 --> 00:09:16,240 they stop, that means it's probably gone. So the value 176 00:09:16,279 --> 00:09:18,440 of shift from teammate to Team B, you can't be 177 00:09:18,519 --> 00:09:21,399 afraid to fade the wise guys, but you want to 178 00:09:21,399 --> 00:09:24,679 do so at a different number, especially in the bowl games. 179 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:26,159 You don't want to go ahead to head with them 180 00:09:26,279 --> 00:09:28,679 because they will crush the books when it comes to 181 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,919 ball season historically at least. So that's one of the 182 00:09:32,919 --> 00:09:36,200 way any recreational better can take advantage of. And I'll 183 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,960 bring up that game. It's the Washington State game where 184 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:43,679 you know their coaches is leaving, and that line moved 185 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:45,919 from like plus four to plus ten or what have you. 186 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,240 And I just thought, again, that just wasn't warranted. It 187 00:09:49,279 --> 00:09:51,840 was big, too big of an adjustment. Those guys that 188 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:55,440 got down early against Washington State, they placed a great bet. 189 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:58,759 They got ahead of the information. But fading Washington State 190 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:00,679 right now because their coach is going to be there 191 00:10:01,039 --> 00:10:05,279 means nothing that's already been factored into the betting line. 192 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:08,240 The books already had a price adjustment. Now you have 193 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:10,799 to decide did they over adjust or under adjust. That's 194 00:10:10,799 --> 00:10:14,840 a different story. But if you don't get out ahead 195 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:17,039 of it, that's the way to take advantage of it. 196 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:20,480 And the bull season offers us a lot of betting value, 197 00:10:20,759 --> 00:10:23,720 just like NFL playoffs. 198 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:26,639 Speaker 1: Speaking, of value VR. Can you please let everybody know 199 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:31,080 what ACE three sixty five is using that coupon code 200 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:31,960 over at wager. 201 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:32,559 Speaker 2: Talk dot com. 202 00:10:32,759 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, we're just giving you the year for pretty much nothing. 203 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:37,919 And I had told Johnny Man, like, since we put 204 00:10:37,919 --> 00:10:41,360 this steam sheet together, I'm so excited for twenty twenty 205 00:10:41,399 --> 00:10:44,759 six because I finally could share so much volume and 206 00:10:44,799 --> 00:10:48,559 not worry about it hurting those guys that just piggyback 207 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:51,960 premium stuff because there's most want to handicap like I 208 00:10:52,039 --> 00:10:54,480 do and are really good at it. So I'm able 209 00:10:54,519 --> 00:10:57,440 to share a ton of that information for them with 210 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:00,120 the steam sheet, but now able to narrow down the 211 00:11:00,159 --> 00:11:03,679 strongest for premium. ACE three sixty five gets you that 212 00:11:03,879 --> 00:11:07,000 discount off my year, which gives it to you for 213 00:11:07,039 --> 00:11:09,360 pretty much nothing. And that's what I was looking for. 214 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:11,559 I wanted guys that are want to partner with me 215 00:11:11,919 --> 00:11:14,919 for long term where we could meet up in the 216 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:18,000 steam room four times a month, go over year to 217 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:23,000 date results, go over our risk management system, and I'm 218 00:11:23,039 --> 00:11:25,320 accountable to you. Am I winning or am I losing? 219 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:27,200 And what are we going to do about it? So 220 00:11:27,519 --> 00:11:29,559 if you're ever gonna take it seriously, if you want 221 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,159 to use sports betting his investment vehicle. This is the 222 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:35,919 best opportunity and the cheapest you're gonna be able to 223 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:38,960 partner up with me for the next twelve months. And 224 00:11:39,039 --> 00:11:41,879 like I said, I'm so excited for twenty twenty six. 225 00:11:42,159 --> 00:11:46,960 We're set up nicely and coasting into it off pretty 226 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:49,360 good run, so great time to jump on board. 227 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 2: ACE three six five, let's team up all right. 228 00:11:53,159 --> 00:11:58,399 Speaker 1: Washington is VR's best bet and this one Marco has 229 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:01,120 a total for us. But Marco, same question for you. 230 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,080 I kind of want to know what your thought process 231 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,200 is for those watching bet on it, for those looking 232 00:12:06,519 --> 00:12:08,679 to be a client of yours and so forth. How 233 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:12,759 are you approaching Bowl season? Are you treading lightly? Only 234 00:12:12,799 --> 00:12:15,360 going to have a few three four maybe even at 235 00:12:15,399 --> 00:12:16,200 one five percent? 236 00:12:16,279 --> 00:12:16,759 Speaker 2: Best bet? 237 00:12:16,919 --> 00:12:18,679 Speaker 1: Kind of tell everybody what they can look forward to 238 00:12:19,639 --> 00:12:22,519 if they want to take advantage of your plays. 239 00:12:23,039 --> 00:12:25,639 Speaker 2: Well, how I attack these games? Kelly? 240 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:27,279 Speaker 4: First of all, the playoff games are going to be 241 00:12:27,279 --> 00:12:30,279 where the focus is going to be, simply put, because 242 00:12:30,519 --> 00:12:33,840 we know we're going to get maximum effort from every team. 243 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:37,039 Speaker 2: We're going to have all hands on deck. Uh. The 244 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:39,720 only things that you know, there's a couple teams. 245 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:42,399 Speaker 4: You know, obviously with the situation with Old Miss where 246 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,039 a coach did leave and how that's going to affect 247 00:12:45,039 --> 00:12:45,399 the team. 248 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 2: But we know going in we're not. 249 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 4: Going to have surprises, whereas on these other games that 250 00:12:51,519 --> 00:12:55,720 you know, unfortunately you know they don't mean anything the 251 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,879 other bowl game. So you've got to handicap motivation for one. 252 00:13:00,279 --> 00:13:03,440 That's always been something you handicap in bowl games. Who's 253 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:05,799 excited to be there? Who's not excited to be there? 254 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,720 But now, because of the new state of the landscape 255 00:13:09,759 --> 00:13:13,240 of college football, with you know, the nil money, the 256 00:13:13,279 --> 00:13:15,799 opt outs, you've got to see who's even going to 257 00:13:15,879 --> 00:13:19,840 be playing me. I will have plays on other bowl games, 258 00:13:19,879 --> 00:13:21,879 but I'm going to tell you this, they will never 259 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:23,960 be up a day or two in advance. They will 260 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:26,120 be up the day of the game. Because I am 261 00:13:26,159 --> 00:13:28,919 going to take every piece of information I can get. 262 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:32,440 Another factor, which is even more so in play now. 263 00:13:32,759 --> 00:13:36,840 We will find out about opt outs early, okay, and 264 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:39,000 right up to you know, a day or two before 265 00:13:39,039 --> 00:13:41,200 the game. You still might have some other people decide 266 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:44,200 to play out or opt out. But what you do 267 00:13:44,399 --> 00:13:47,279 got to worry about in the last day the twenty 268 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:50,440 four to forty eight hours before a Bowl game is 269 00:13:50,519 --> 00:13:53,480 because these games don't mean a lot and some of 270 00:13:53,519 --> 00:13:59,320 these places that teams will be playing, players get distracted, okay, 271 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:03,320 and maybe they missed some curfews maybe whatever. You want 272 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:05,360 to know things about that. You know, you've got a 273 00:14:05,399 --> 00:14:08,039 Bowl game here in Vegas, you know, or where the 274 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:11,159 kids out having a good time, where they focus, what's 275 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:14,240 the fan base who's traveled to this game. All of 276 00:14:14,279 --> 00:14:17,960 that stuff factors in and that'll meet decisions made on 277 00:14:18,039 --> 00:14:20,840 game days. But the biggest plays and the majority of 278 00:14:20,879 --> 00:14:25,000 the plays will be the playoff games. For me and Kelly, 279 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:28,519 we have the same special that ACE is running right now. 280 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:30,600 Johnny put it up for me. But it is not 281 00:14:30,679 --> 00:14:33,360 a coupon code. So I want to explain that to 282 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:37,960 our viewers. This is a secret link that is only 283 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,879 available to you guys. And what you have to do 284 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,840 for ACE you have to go to WT dot buzz 285 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:49,120 backslash ACE three sixty five. That's where you use the 286 00:14:49,159 --> 00:14:52,720 ACE three sixty five. It's a special link for me. 287 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:58,720 It's the same thing WT dot buzz backslash Marco three 288 00:14:58,879 --> 00:15:01,600 six five and you you can pick up the entire 289 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:05,879 season regular price nineteen hundred and ninety nine dollars for 290 00:15:06,279 --> 00:15:10,519 just eleven eighty eight. We're doing that is a special 291 00:15:10,559 --> 00:15:13,799 treat to you, guys, loyal viewers of bet on It. 292 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,960 We appreciate you guys all year hanging out with us, 293 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:19,360 and we want to give you a big discount. And 294 00:15:19,399 --> 00:15:21,320 I say it all the time, it's not just a 295 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:24,320 sales pitch. There's not a better one two punch for 296 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,919 you the lumber and Lightning, the VR and me. Because 297 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,799 we're totally different styles of handicapping, Ace is going to 298 00:15:31,879 --> 00:15:34,720 give you some volume. I'm going to give you, you know, 299 00:15:34,799 --> 00:15:37,519 three to five games on the weekends, one to three 300 00:15:37,639 --> 00:15:41,000 during the week and we've been running one two all year, 301 00:15:41,159 --> 00:15:43,919 so it's a great combination. If you want to have 302 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:47,720 a tandem, highly recommend the two of us. As far 303 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:50,480 as my bowl game, my best bet, We're going to 304 00:15:50,519 --> 00:15:53,440 take a look at this old Dominion South Florida game 305 00:15:53,799 --> 00:15:56,360 and when you look at this total fifty five and 306 00:15:56,399 --> 00:15:59,039 a half, your first instinct is going to be, what 307 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:02,960 the heck's going on here? South Florida's scored forty eight 308 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,559 or more in seven of its last nine games. 309 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:06,399 Speaker 2: In the two. 310 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:09,759 Speaker 4: Games that they didn't top forty eight, they scored thirty 311 00:16:09,799 --> 00:16:10,720 one and thirty eight. 312 00:16:11,159 --> 00:16:12,919 Speaker 2: Then you're gonna look at Old Dominion. 313 00:16:12,559 --> 00:16:14,519 Speaker 4: And they've scored thirty one or more than three of 314 00:16:14,559 --> 00:16:18,039 their last four games. So the big question is why 315 00:16:18,159 --> 00:16:21,120 is this total fifty five and a half. This is 316 00:16:22,159 --> 00:16:26,039 for South Florida in their last seven games. This is 317 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:29,639 the lowest total posted on a game for Old Dominion. 318 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:32,759 Three of their last four games, this is the low 319 00:16:32,919 --> 00:16:35,679 Only one game was a higher total, and only by 320 00:16:35,919 --> 00:16:39,039 a half a point or a point. Why did Vegas 321 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:42,200 put this total lower? It's because as good as both 322 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:46,840 of these offenses have been, both of these teams defenses 323 00:16:46,879 --> 00:16:50,000 are strong as well. And both of these teams their 324 00:16:50,039 --> 00:16:52,720 bread and butter is they like to run the football. 325 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:56,679 So you've got two teams and when I say run 326 00:16:56,799 --> 00:17:00,559 the football, Old Don his three straight games of three 327 00:17:00,679 --> 00:17:02,120 hundred plus yards on the ground. 328 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 2: South Florida seven. 329 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,119 Speaker 4: Of their last nine games they've rushed for two thirty 330 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:11,440 eight or more. Both teams average five point seven yards 331 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:17,799 per carry on the ground, but they defensively three point 332 00:17:17,839 --> 00:17:20,640 eight and three point six against stopping the run. So 333 00:17:20,759 --> 00:17:23,039 what does that mean? These teams are still gonna do 334 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,400 what they do. It's gonna take them longer to go 335 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:30,039 up the field. The drives are gonna take longer. They're 336 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:33,039 gonna have to earn those points, and some of those 337 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:36,720 drives will end in fueld goals. And that's why we're 338 00:17:36,759 --> 00:17:39,480 looking at a lower total. The public's gonna see this 339 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:42,039 and they're gonna want the over. I'm taking the under. 340 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:44,680 I don't have a problem with you waiting till game 341 00:17:44,759 --> 00:17:48,400 day because I can guarantee you and until maybe the 342 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:51,319 sharps agree with me, there's not gonna be any money 343 00:17:51,319 --> 00:17:54,599 on the under the money unless weather becomes a factor. 344 00:17:54,799 --> 00:17:57,519 They're gonna bet the over on game day and then 345 00:17:58,039 --> 00:18:01,039 shortly before game time you'll see it back where the 346 00:18:01,079 --> 00:18:03,680 sharp money comes on the under. I have no problem 347 00:18:03,759 --> 00:18:05,680 with you grabbing it right now at fifty five and 348 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:07,599 a half, but I don't have a problem with you 349 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:10,160 wait and you'll probably get a fifty six or fifty 350 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:14,079 seven on game day. I'm going under South Florida and 351 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:14,880 Old Dawn. 352 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:22,279 Speaker 1: It's always funny these bowl names, the Staff DNA Curebowl. 353 00:18:23,079 --> 00:18:25,799 That's what we're betting here, guys. We're just gonna trying 354 00:18:25,799 --> 00:18:27,279 to get through it. We're just waiting for the College 355 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,920 Roball Playoff. It's coming, and I'm sure at this point 356 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:31,119 in time, you guys are gonna tune out when I 357 00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:33,720 tell you that I am betting on the sixty eight 358 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:38,279 Venture Bowl whatever on Earth that is or used to 359 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:45,160 be in Mobile, Alabama, ESPN eight thirty at night on Wednesday. 360 00:18:45,599 --> 00:18:48,079 Come on, there's nothing else on besides college basketball? Guy, 361 00:18:48,079 --> 00:18:49,799 are gonna be watching this? You're gonna want to bet 362 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:54,079 on the Delaware Blue Hens. Yes, the raging Cajun start 363 00:18:54,079 --> 00:18:56,519 off the season two and six. They had to rattle 364 00:18:56,559 --> 00:19:00,559 off four straight wins to get here, so one could 365 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:04,880 argue that maybe they have a little momentum on their side. 366 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,599 But hello, did we forget all of the things the 367 00:19:07,599 --> 00:19:11,759 Blue Hens did for us as outright underdogs that win 368 00:19:11,839 --> 00:19:14,440 as a double digit dog versus Yukon And of course 369 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:19,400 they beat Louisiana Tech as well. Now, they didn't finish 370 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:24,400 the season strong, but it doesn't matter. This team is excited. 371 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,039 This is eighteen that is new to the FBS, so 372 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:28,400 this is their first. 373 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:29,559 Speaker 2: Bowl game ever. 374 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,519 Speaker 1: Remember when bowl games used to mean something? Yeah, well 375 00:19:32,519 --> 00:19:35,640 it means something to the Delaware Blue Hens to be 376 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:39,400 playing and this one I do think the Delaware defense 377 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:41,759 is going to be able to stop this rushing attack 378 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,160 of the raging Cajuns. I like this to be a 379 00:19:44,279 --> 00:19:47,559 lower scoring game. Thus, I like the three and a 380 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:53,640 half here with the live underdog blue hints. Again, they've 381 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,720 been good to us. We're gonna ride them into the 382 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:59,279 bowl season. Guys, thank you for hanging out with us 383 00:19:59,319 --> 00:20:01,960 here on bet On from VR Marco and myself, we're 384 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,359 gonna be back next week. We're gonna be talking the 385 00:20:04,519 --> 00:20:07,799 college football playoff. As the guy said, that's when the 386 00:20:07,839 --> 00:20:12,160 real fun starts. I'm excited for that one. And of course, 387 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,079 if you guys are looking for that NFL edition of 388 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:17,160 bet on It, it's gonna be right here. We'll throw 389 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,640 this in with the Mega Show as well, and Marco 390 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:22,240 will be back with a standalone Deli video for all 391 00:20:22,279 --> 00:20:24,799 of you guys. Until next week, let's bet on It.