Speaker 1: Army Navy is this weekend, and of course we've got
a handful of bowl games before we get into the
college football playoff. Let's touch on some of those up
next on bet on It. We're gonna do a quicker
show today, guys, and you're welcome to let me know
in the comment section if you're not happy with that.
But some of these bowl games we gotta see if
there's opt outs. We know there's gonna be coaching changes
and so forth. Of course, next week we'll get into
those college football playoff games. But this week we're gonna
have a shorter show. We're gonna talk about Army Navy,
and then we're gonna give you best bets between now
and next Wednesday for these early bowl games. I'm Kelly Stewart,
Yanni the Greek there in the middle, Marco D'Angelo on
the end, Army Navy boys. For a long time, we
just bought blindly bet the under here, right, This was
the fun thing to do. Now, Army's improved, well, at
least maybe beat my Kansas State Wild's cats. We're not
going to talk about that. And Navy has absolutely improved
this season. We've seen their offense kicked into high gear.
So I want no part of this under. I'm going
to say that already sitting here at thirty eight, but
Army is a six point underdog. VR Am I wrong
in my assumptions about these offenses?
Speaker 2: No? I mean, and that's the thing.
Speaker 3: We've now seen this matchup forever, and that's always the
first thing to look at.
Speaker 2: Low scoring game.
Speaker 3: How low is the total and is there any value
in the under? Has been the setup historically. Now personally,
I have not taken a position on this game. Bet
on it for college football thirty three and eleven so
far this year, about seventy five percent.
Speaker 2: I'll take it.
Speaker 3: Currently number one in college football over at wager talk,
So make sure you don't miss out on the bull season.
That's where the money's really at, and luckily we're free rolling.
With that said, Navy's had a great season, you know,
winning nine of eleven games, but they just haven't made
anybody any money unless you've been fading them. In fact,
they're four and seven ats, so the books have done
a really good job of defending against Navy. As far
as Army, it's a five hundred team, both straight up,
both ats. But these teams are pretty comparable. And here's
what I mean. As far as my power ratings go,
I have Navy ahead of Army by only a couple slots.
Both are in the seventies. Okay, as far as power
rating goes, so there's not too many teams either would
be favored over. Now you have offense first defense. One
team's the better offense, one teams the better defense. Army
has a horrific offense. They're ranked over the one hundredth mark,
so there's one hundred teams in college football and the
more efficient offense.
Speaker 2: All right, but they have a.
Speaker 3: Top fifty defense. And look at the Navy side. Offensively,
they're in top seventy defensively not even top eighty. So statistically,
both these teams are really really bad. But when I
look at strength of schedule, Armies had the tougher strength
of schedule. So putting it all together, data wise, there's
not all that much that separates these two except for
their straight up record, and some of that has to
do with strength of schedule. The line came out at five,
initially got some Navy money, not surprising. They look like
the more attractive team on paper. Nine to two verse
six and five, and I think the public's gonna bet
that side. They're going to money line parlay them, They're
going to tease them, even though they shouldn't, they will.
I think Armies the side value wise. I think they're
able to keep it close, and it should be one
of those games that come down to final possession or
a field goal or a turnover either way. I don't
think Navy's gonna be able to win this game by mark.
If you look at their wins, that just hasn't been
the case very few times. If they want a game
by more than one score, it's why they haven't been covering.
They've been double digit favors throughout the season. So I
like Army here. I haven't gotten to the window yet.
We got some time, but I grabbed the six with Army.
If I had to bet it today.
Speaker 1: Marco I said it to start the show. I wasn't
gonna make this about me, but now VR is smart
something and I'm going to make it about myself. One
of the things in that Case State game was what
Army was able to do in the second half was
control the time of possession. When you control the time
and possession, obviously that makes for less variance in scoring.
My little spider sensess just went off, and now I
also may be betting Army plus six. Do you agree
with VR? And I?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Kelly. The reason for it is simply this. These
two teams are basic mirror images of each other. They
both run the football fifty plus times, and because they
both run the option, they're better prepared to stop it
because they see it every single day in practice.
Speaker 2: That's something the K State doesn't see.
Speaker 4: And when K State played them early in the season,
K State, remember, Kelly, you know you went over to
Ireland and everything else. It was a pretty hectic first
month of the season four Kansas State, and they weren't
prepared to stop that option attack. And that's why a
team can control time of possession that way. We've also
seen in the past the low scoring goal in this
series because of that, As you said, for how many
years this was basically, you know, just a dead stone
cold under. They couldn't put the total low enough. But
these teams have added a few new wrinkles where you
have seen them throw the football on occasion more often
in their surprise plays that generally are big plays. Whenever
they connect on them. But even with that, we have
still seen the dog dominate this series. Recently, four of
the last five meetings the dog has gotten the money.
And couple games to point out from this year, Navy
played air Force, you know in the Commander in Chief Series.
That game they were thirteen and a half point favorite.
Navy what did they do? Won by three because they
basically run the same offense. Army played air Force as well.
They were one point favorite. What was the final score there? Yeah,
it was a three point game. Army wins. No need
to overthink this one. It's the dog or pass. I'm
taking Army.
Speaker 1: Dogger pass. It sounds like me every single college football show. No,
all jokes aside. Let's get into some of those best bets.
I do have a dog for you guys in that category.
Now the art. Before we get into this set of
best bets, can you gotta let everybody know what your
thought process is headed into bolseason?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: So I bet, for example, Chris and I bet Clemson
minus three early not early enough. We didn't bet minus one,
but we were hearing of some Penn State ops. We
saw that line go to three and a half. I'm
just kind of sitting here waiting maybe we hear that
those aren't true. How do you kind of shift out
some of the noise? What are you looking for? I
know you do a lot with power ratings, but trying
to power rate teams with completely different coaching changes, different quarterbacks,
different sets of receivers, motivation, and so forth is really
difficult to do.
Speaker 2: It really is.
Speaker 3: But this is that time of year where it's difficult
for the sports books as well to quantify some of
those factors. What exactly are they worth to the betting line?
What kind of sample size do they have with that
type of information? So it's difficult for them as well. Luckily,
I work with different groups that try to get out
ahead of the information, and therefore when I see multiples
come in on the side, I'll piggyback that knowing that
they probably do have solid information. But for most betters
that don't have access to that, I think they have
to wait until the information is confirmed and then take
advantage of the overreaction. It's very difficult when you have
a job, when you have a family, when you have
responsibilities to get out ahead of the betting market.
Speaker 2: It's very difficult to do that.
Speaker 3: It's hard enough for us who do nothing but look
at betting lines all day and are here ready to
pull the trigger to get out ahead. If you don't
have that ability, then again you need to wait and
take advantage of those narratives that aren't warranted. And in
both season you're going to hear a lot of that. Again,
players aren't playing, coaches are leaving, there's an over reaction.
In fact, one of the premiums I released through subscribers
already in both season four percent is based on that
information alone. I thought there was an overreaction to a
coach not being there for the bowl game. We didn't
get out ahead of that information. But after the line
was adjusted four five six points, I actually now think
the values on Team B. So I'm not afraid to
go against the sharp money after they move a line
so significantly, because you got to remember, they stop betting
it for a reason. Otherwise, if they're still ev there,
they're gonna fire. I know that because that's what I
do for a living. So when there's still value on
the board, they'll come back and hit it again. When
they stop, that means it's probably gone. So the value
of shift from teammate to Team B, you can't be
afraid to fade the wise guys, but you want to
do so at a different number, especially in the bowl games.
You don't want to go ahead to head with them
because they will crush the books when it comes to
ball season historically at least. So that's one of the
way any recreational better can take advantage of. And I'll
bring up that game. It's the Washington State game where
you know their coaches is leaving, and that line moved
from like plus four to plus ten or what have you.
And I just thought, again, that just wasn't warranted. It
was big, too big of an adjustment. Those guys that
got down early against Washington State, they placed a great bet.
They got ahead of the information. But fading Washington State
right now because their coach is going to be there
means nothing that's already been factored into the betting line.
The books already had a price adjustment. Now you have
to decide did they over adjust or under adjust. That's
a different story. But if you don't get out ahead
of it, that's the way to take advantage of it.
And the bull season offers us a lot of betting value,
just like NFL playoffs.
Speaker 1: Speaking, of value VR. Can you please let everybody know
what ACE three sixty five is using that coupon code
over at wager.
Speaker 2: Talk dot com.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're just giving you the year for pretty much nothing.
And I had told Johnny Man, like, since we put
this steam sheet together, I'm so excited for twenty twenty
six because I finally could share so much volume and
not worry about it hurting those guys that just piggyback
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to share a ton of that information for them with
the steam sheet, but now able to narrow down the
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if you're ever gonna take it seriously, if you want
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Speaker 2: ACE three six five, let's team up all right.
Speaker 1: Washington is VR's best bet and this one Marco has
a total for us. But Marco, same question for you.
I kind of want to know what your thought process
is for those watching bet on it, for those looking
to be a client of yours and so forth. How
are you approaching Bowl season? Are you treading lightly? Only
going to have a few three four maybe even at
one five percent?
Speaker 2: Best bet?
Speaker 1: Kind of tell everybody what they can look forward to
if they want to take advantage of your plays.
Speaker 2: Well, how I attack these games? Kelly?
Speaker 4: First of all, the playoff games are going to be
where the focus is going to be, simply put, because
we know we're going to get maximum effort from every team.
Speaker 2: We're going to have all hands on deck. Uh. The
only things that you know, there's a couple teams.
Speaker 4: You know, obviously with the situation with Old Miss where
a coach did leave and how that's going to affect
the team.
Speaker 2: But we know going in we're not.
Speaker 4: Going to have surprises, whereas on these other games that
you know, unfortunately you know they don't mean anything the
other bowl game. So you've got to handicap motivation for one.
That's always been something you handicap in bowl games. Who's
excited to be there? Who's not excited to be there?
But now, because of the new state of the landscape
of college football, with you know, the nil money, the
opt outs, you've got to see who's even going to
be playing me. I will have plays on other bowl games,
but I'm going to tell you this, they will never
be up a day or two in advance. They will
be up the day of the game. Because I am
going to take every piece of information I can get.
Another factor, which is even more so in play now.
We will find out about opt outs early, okay, and
right up to you know, a day or two before
the game. You still might have some other people decide
to play out or opt out. But what you do
got to worry about in the last day the twenty
four to forty eight hours before a Bowl game is
because these games don't mean a lot and some of
these places that teams will be playing, players get distracted, okay,
and maybe they missed some curfews maybe whatever. You want
to know things about that. You know, you've got a
Bowl game here in Vegas, you know, or where the
kids out having a good time, where they focus, what's
the fan base who's traveled to this game. All of
that stuff factors in and that'll meet decisions made on
game days. But the biggest plays and the majority of
the plays will be the playoff games. For me and Kelly,
we have the same special that ACE is running right now.
Johnny put it up for me. But it is not
a coupon code. So I want to explain that to
our viewers. This is a secret link that is only
available to you guys. And what you have to do
for ACE you have to go to WT dot buzz
backslash ACE three sixty five. That's where you use the
ACE three sixty five. It's a special link for me.
It's the same thing WT dot buzz backslash Marco three
six five and you you can pick up the entire
season regular price nineteen hundred and ninety nine dollars for
just eleven eighty eight. We're doing that is a special
treat to you, guys, loyal viewers of bet on It.
We appreciate you guys all year hanging out with us,
and we want to give you a big discount. And
I say it all the time, it's not just a
sales pitch. There's not a better one two punch for
you the lumber and Lightning, the VR and me. Because
we're totally different styles of handicapping, Ace is going to
give you some volume. I'm going to give you, you know,
three to five games on the weekends, one to three
during the week and we've been running one two all year,
so it's a great combination. If you want to have
a tandem, highly recommend the two of us. As far
as my bowl game, my best bet, We're going to
take a look at this old Dominion South Florida game
and when you look at this total fifty five and
a half, your first instinct is going to be, what
the heck's going on here? South Florida's scored forty eight
or more in seven of its last nine games.
Speaker 2: In the two.
Speaker 4: Games that they didn't top forty eight, they scored thirty
one and thirty eight.
Speaker 2: Then you're gonna look at Old Dominion.
Speaker 4: And they've scored thirty one or more than three of
their last four games. So the big question is why
is this total fifty five and a half. This is
for South Florida in their last seven games. This is
the lowest total posted on a game for Old Dominion.
Three of their last four games, this is the low
Only one game was a higher total, and only by
a half a point or a point. Why did Vegas
put this total lower? It's because as good as both
of these offenses have been, both of these teams defenses
are strong as well. And both of these teams their
bread and butter is they like to run the football.
So you've got two teams and when I say run
the football, Old Don his three straight games of three
hundred plus yards on the ground.
Speaker 2: South Florida seven.
Speaker 4: Of their last nine games they've rushed for two thirty
eight or more. Both teams average five point seven yards
per carry on the ground, but they defensively three point
eight and three point six against stopping the run. So
what does that mean? These teams are still gonna do
what they do. It's gonna take them longer to go
up the field. The drives are gonna take longer. They're
gonna have to earn those points, and some of those
drives will end in fueld goals. And that's why we're
looking at a lower total. The public's gonna see this
and they're gonna want the over. I'm taking the under.
I don't have a problem with you waiting till game
day because I can guarantee you and until maybe the
sharps agree with me, there's not gonna be any money
on the under the money unless weather becomes a factor.
They're gonna bet the over on game day and then
shortly before game time you'll see it back where the
sharp money comes on the under. I have no problem
with you grabbing it right now at fifty five and
a half, but I don't have a problem with you
wait and you'll probably get a fifty six or fifty
seven on game day. I'm going under South Florida and
Old Dawn.
Speaker 1: It's always funny these bowl names, the Staff DNA Curebowl.
That's what we're betting here, guys. We're just gonna trying
to get through it. We're just waiting for the College
Roball Playoff. It's coming, and I'm sure at this point
in time, you guys are gonna tune out when I
tell you that I am betting on the sixty eight
Venture Bowl whatever on Earth that is or used to
be in Mobile, Alabama, ESPN eight thirty at night on Wednesday.
Come on, there's nothing else on besides college basketball? Guy,
are gonna be watching this? You're gonna want to bet
on the Delaware Blue Hens. Yes, the raging Cajun start
off the season two and six. They had to rattle
off four straight wins to get here, so one could
argue that maybe they have a little momentum on their side.
But hello, did we forget all of the things the
Blue Hens did for us as outright underdogs that win
as a double digit dog versus Yukon And of course
they beat Louisiana Tech as well. Now, they didn't finish
the season strong, but it doesn't matter. This team is excited.
This is eighteen that is new to the FBS, so
this is their first.
Speaker 2: Bowl game ever.
Speaker 1: Remember when bowl games used to mean something? Yeah, well
it means something to the Delaware Blue Hens to be
playing and this one I do think the Delaware defense
is going to be able to stop this rushing attack
of the raging Cajuns. I like this to be a
lower scoring game. Thus, I like the three and a
half here with the live underdog blue hints. Again, they've
been good to us. We're gonna ride them into the
bowl season. Guys, thank you for hanging out with us
here on bet On from VR Marco and myself, we're
gonna be back next week. We're gonna be talking the
college football playoff. As the guy said, that's when the
real fun starts. I'm excited for that one. And of course,
if you guys are looking for that NFL edition of
bet on It, it's gonna be right here. We'll throw
this in with the Mega Show as well, and Marco
will be back with a standalone Deli video for all
of you guys. Until next week, let's bet on It.