WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.160 --> 00:00:04.599 I never believed that the CIA killed Kennedy. 2 00:00:05.400 --> 00:00:07.919 Well, you're talking to a guy that's read the entire 3 00:00:08.000 --> 00:00:08.679 JFK file. 4 00:00:09.199 --> 00:00:10.679 You've seen all the secret stuff. 5 00:00:10.759 --> 00:00:13.320 I've seen all of that, and I've seen the seven 6 00:00:13.359 --> 00:00:15.759 pages of the nine to eleven report. I've seen it all. 7 00:00:18.600 --> 00:00:20.440 You don't say that to people that you can't tell 8 00:00:20.480 --> 00:00:23.480 what you saw. Should the Kennedy stuff be released? 9 00:00:23.559 --> 00:00:23.839 Yes? 10 00:00:24.239 --> 00:00:25.800 Is there anything there that is? 11 00:00:25.879 --> 00:00:25.960 Like? 12 00:00:27.399 --> 00:00:28.559 Is anybody alive that? 13 00:00:29.039 --> 00:00:33.479 The problem is the things that we can't release have 14 00:00:33.640 --> 00:00:35.399 nothing to do with the questions you guys are. 15 00:00:35.320 --> 00:00:37.600 Asking, what the hell does that mean? 16 00:00:37.759 --> 00:00:44.520 Tom Luongo, that's a good question, and I don't know. Yeah, yeah, 17 00:00:45.119 --> 00:00:47.000 it's a it's interesting. Hi, Clint, how are you. How 18 00:00:47.000 --> 00:00:48.000 you been it's been a while. 19 00:00:48.039 --> 00:00:50.520 I'm good, I'm good. Thanks for joining me, Tom, Yeah, 20 00:00:50.600 --> 00:00:52.439 I mean, the reason I started us off with that 21 00:00:52.560 --> 00:00:55.759 is because allegedly the JFK files are going to be 22 00:00:56.159 --> 00:01:00.439 fully released, unredacted within minutes. I don't know if that's 23 00:01:00.439 --> 00:01:03.799 gonna be true. We have been rug pulled numerous times, 24 00:01:03.840 --> 00:01:08.120 particularly with the Epstein files, but I'm interested. They have 25 00:01:08.159 --> 00:01:09.760 piqued my interest at least. What about you? 26 00:01:10.439 --> 00:01:10.640 Yeah? 27 00:01:10.640 --> 00:01:14.079 I mean, I yeah, I think this stuff is interesting. 28 00:01:15.879 --> 00:01:17.599 The older I get and the longer this goes on, 29 00:01:18.519 --> 00:01:20.359 the more I look at this is just a kind 30 00:01:20.359 --> 00:01:24.959 of I don't know, I'm distrustful of everything at this point, Clinton, 31 00:01:24.959 --> 00:01:29.200 I'm distrustful of every every distraction of every. 32 00:01:30.840 --> 00:01:31.719 Of everything I'm seeing. 33 00:01:31.719 --> 00:01:34.239 Like it's funny this morning, just this is gonna sound 34 00:01:34.239 --> 00:01:36.239 like a diggression, but this morning I was too my 35 00:01:36.239 --> 00:01:40.319 Twitter feed, and so I think from Jim Bianco about 36 00:01:41.319 --> 00:01:46.640 concentration of stories of of financial market distress, and then 37 00:01:46.680 --> 00:01:52.040 we're like the highest, second highest and concentration of this 38 00:01:52.079 --> 00:01:55.799 at all time relative you know, COVID being the other one. Like, 39 00:01:56.120 --> 00:01:58.519 and I don't know about you, but it really, you know, 40 00:01:58.519 --> 00:02:01.319 with the down with forty one five, I'm not feeling 41 00:02:01.480 --> 00:02:04.120 like the world is you know, the financial world isn't 42 00:02:04.319 --> 00:02:06.719 getting ready to like come apart at the seams. So 43 00:02:08.199 --> 00:02:10.319 what I'm saying is that there's an awful lot of 44 00:02:10.319 --> 00:02:13.840 of of gas lighting going on on all sides. Like 45 00:02:14.159 --> 00:02:18.159 I see very obvious divide and rule plays being, you know, 46 00:02:18.400 --> 00:02:22.120 being thrown out there between libertarians and conservatives, like they're 47 00:02:22.159 --> 00:02:24.759 trying to break the Trump coalition at every level. So 48 00:02:24.800 --> 00:02:28.199 I look at the the Epstein file thing, and I'm like, whatever, 49 00:02:28.400 --> 00:02:33.080 I look at the the JFK files again, same kind 50 00:02:33.120 --> 00:02:33.400 of thing. 51 00:02:33.520 --> 00:02:36.000 It's something do you throw out there? 52 00:02:36.400 --> 00:02:39.319 And then especially the Epstein file thing, it was clear 53 00:02:39.360 --> 00:02:41.000 that there was a there was like deep state fucker 54 00:02:41.199 --> 00:02:44.199 going on and nothing with Pamba, It's clear. It's clear 55 00:02:44.240 --> 00:02:46.840 that she was told one thing. You know, she's still 56 00:02:46.879 --> 00:02:49.879 in the process of getting her you know, her staff 57 00:02:49.919 --> 00:02:51.960 together and everything else, and she was a suit you know, 58 00:02:52.000 --> 00:02:53.960 and then they you know, then they rugged her, right, 59 00:02:54.680 --> 00:02:58.199 and then what happens. Everybody's like screaming, and you know, 60 00:02:58.280 --> 00:03:01.039 it's like really like you could see that coming, Like 61 00:03:01.120 --> 00:03:03.960 you couldn't see. You couldn't see a bunch of deep 62 00:03:03.960 --> 00:03:06.879 state that's like running around and trying to make her 63 00:03:06.960 --> 00:03:09.159 look bad like, and then a whole bunch of you know, 64 00:03:09.479 --> 00:03:12.120 libertarians and magatars in this one and that one, and 65 00:03:12.120 --> 00:03:14.879 people who are honestly are fake conservatives, like they're fake 66 00:03:15.120 --> 00:03:19.120 fellow travelers, and they're embedded and they're everywhere, and you know, 67 00:03:19.159 --> 00:03:20.840 we have to realize this. We have to realize that 68 00:03:20.879 --> 00:03:24.840 the information space is in every way, matter, shape and form, compromised. 69 00:03:25.000 --> 00:03:26.840 We have to assume that we have to assume. 70 00:03:26.599 --> 00:03:31.199 That we're living under the most intense psychological intelligence operations 71 00:03:31.240 --> 00:03:34.639 of all time, because the stakes are that high for 72 00:03:34.919 --> 00:03:38.039 the people who are you know, whose power is being 73 00:03:38.080 --> 00:03:40.400 threatened here. So you would expect m I six to 74 00:03:40.439 --> 00:03:43.719 be an overdrive. You expect the Masade and the CIA 75 00:03:43.840 --> 00:03:48.240 and you know, the State Department and everybody imaginable and 76 00:03:49.240 --> 00:03:50.879 you know, and I see it in the financial markets 77 00:03:50.919 --> 00:03:53.680 as well. So at this point, like I'm like, oh, 78 00:03:53.719 --> 00:03:56.759 it's cute, You're going to release all the JFA files. Okay, 79 00:03:57.560 --> 00:03:58.919 I'll believe it when I see it, but I don't 80 00:03:58.960 --> 00:04:02.080 really care because I'm worried about what I'm seeing out 81 00:04:02.080 --> 00:04:04.080 of Mark Karney in Canada, what I'm seeing out of 82 00:04:04.280 --> 00:04:07.639 Manuel Macrona in France, what I'm seeing, you know, what 83 00:04:07.680 --> 00:04:11.919 they're doing to try and and kre Starman or sorry, 84 00:04:12.000 --> 00:04:14.199 kir Stalin in the UK. 85 00:04:15.000 --> 00:04:19.480 And I'm watching those guys and that's what has my attention, right. 86 00:04:20.279 --> 00:04:22.519 Me both, you know, But that's just not the headline 87 00:04:22.560 --> 00:04:26.439 grabbers generally. But no, I agree with your assessment. In fact, 88 00:04:26.600 --> 00:04:29.000 I spent the past week really locked in on Canada, 89 00:04:29.879 --> 00:04:32.240 and we'll get into that in a second. But I 90 00:04:32.560 --> 00:04:36.480 do understand you know, the desire for transparency. That was 91 00:04:36.560 --> 00:04:40.560 kind of what Trump round three, if you will, was 92 00:04:40.720 --> 00:04:43.720 ushered into power with. And I think people expect that. 93 00:04:43.800 --> 00:04:47.319 And you know it was an unforced era on Pam's 94 00:04:47.480 --> 00:04:49.160 fault or on Pam's part. 95 00:04:49.519 --> 00:04:53.000 You know, I'm not I no, I agree, I think 96 00:04:53.000 --> 00:04:53.279 it was. 97 00:04:53.319 --> 00:04:56.279 And I think that you know, like Trump when he 98 00:04:56.399 --> 00:04:59.759 first got to Washington, d C in twenty seventeen, twenty sixteen, 99 00:05:00.000 --> 00:05:02.800 you didn't know how I operated. He made a lot 100 00:05:02.879 --> 00:05:04.839 on forced errors, not the least of which was you know, 101 00:05:05.319 --> 00:05:08.160 you know, allowing Mike Funn to be you know, taken 102 00:05:08.199 --> 00:05:11.720 from him right set the tone for the entire administration. 103 00:05:11.839 --> 00:05:13.879 And I think BONDI has got you know, you know, 104 00:05:14.000 --> 00:05:19.160 d C is not Tallahassee right, you know, and it's 105 00:05:19.199 --> 00:05:21.879 a much much different beast. And and so you know, 106 00:05:21.959 --> 00:05:23.639 did they have her. You know, she's in a very 107 00:05:23.680 --> 00:05:25.079 very difficult position. 108 00:05:25.240 --> 00:05:28.959 So and we'll see. I mean, I'm not and I'm 109 00:05:29.000 --> 00:05:32.759 not convinced that she's the right ag right, I after 110 00:05:32.839 --> 00:05:36.040 mac Gates was was uh was. 111 00:05:35.480 --> 00:05:39.160 Was was ship can that was the odds on bet 112 00:05:39.360 --> 00:05:41.399 my Dexter right and I both made the call that 113 00:05:41.480 --> 00:05:44.079 it would be Pambondi and that Ashley Moody would be 114 00:05:44.199 --> 00:05:46.800 moved into you know, Rick Scott's position and blah blah 115 00:05:46.800 --> 00:05:49.079 blahlah blah and that. But there's still a feud going 116 00:05:49.120 --> 00:05:51.560 on between the Santas and Trump because you know, he's 117 00:05:51.600 --> 00:05:52.839 Trump and there's no known cure. 118 00:05:53.480 --> 00:05:57.639 So you know, well, like, so let's let's let's pivot. 119 00:05:57.720 --> 00:06:00.720 Let's pivot to uh to well, actually I want to 120 00:06:00.720 --> 00:06:04.240 start with Yeah, let's start with Canada. I know that's 121 00:06:04.240 --> 00:06:08.279 not not the headline grabber, but Mark Carney being you know, 122 00:06:08.600 --> 00:06:14.920 Bank of England. Uh yeah, seems like a you know, 123 00:06:14.920 --> 00:06:18.560 a globalist plant, especially since he wasn't even elected. I'm 124 00:06:18.600 --> 00:06:20.079 just curious what your read is on all of it. 125 00:06:20.360 --> 00:06:21.959 Oh God, I just did an hour and a half 126 00:06:22.000 --> 00:06:24.439 of my friend Sean Newman about this this very thing, 127 00:06:24.759 --> 00:06:27.000 and I'm about to publish a podcast as a matter 128 00:06:27.040 --> 00:06:29.399 of fact, I've got a podcast with Chris Sims of 129 00:06:29.439 --> 00:06:33.319 the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, who is a great source of 130 00:06:33.360 --> 00:06:35.800 information about Mark Carney, by the way, because she's actually 131 00:06:35.839 --> 00:06:38.600 read this book like she's braver soul than I am. 132 00:06:38.959 --> 00:06:40.519 And I've got one of those coming out. 133 00:06:40.560 --> 00:06:42.240 So for the gold Goods, and Guns podcast that'll be 134 00:06:42.360 --> 00:06:44.160 I'll be publishing that right after you and I get 135 00:06:44.160 --> 00:06:47.360 done this afternoon. I've got it all like laid out. 136 00:06:47.360 --> 00:06:49.959 So I've been really dip dipping into Canada a lot. 137 00:06:50.040 --> 00:06:52.560 And I you know, so last week I was on 138 00:06:52.680 --> 00:06:55.639 with Sean and Alex Newman, sorry Alex Kraner, on Seawan 139 00:06:55.680 --> 00:06:58.600 Newman's podcast, and because we hadn't done one in a while, 140 00:06:58.639 --> 00:07:00.199 and we and it was the day that car Me 141 00:07:00.639 --> 00:07:04.439 got sworn in. And then right after that we had 142 00:07:04.480 --> 00:07:08.319 this announcement about three or four hours later about Canada 143 00:07:08.319 --> 00:07:13.720 issuing bonds denominated in US dollars. And I knew this 144 00:07:13.839 --> 00:07:16.079 was important because I knew the timing was important. It 145 00:07:16.160 --> 00:07:18.360 may not be the size of the bond issuance or whatever, 146 00:07:18.639 --> 00:07:21.519 but it was important because for optics purposes. So the 147 00:07:21.519 --> 00:07:22.800 next morning of courth I have to get up and 148 00:07:22.800 --> 00:07:25.439 I have to do my Wednesday market report for my patrons, 149 00:07:25.439 --> 00:07:27.399 and I have to think I have to talk about this, 150 00:07:27.720 --> 00:07:29.839 and so I start thinking about it. It took me about 151 00:07:29.839 --> 00:07:32.600 ten minutes to figure out, oh right, knowing everything that 152 00:07:32.639 --> 00:07:36.639 I know about SOFA and libor and offshore dollar markets 153 00:07:36.680 --> 00:07:38.279 and everything else, I'm like, oh, This is just another 154 00:07:38.720 --> 00:07:42.079 this is another attempt to shovel you know, cheap euro 155 00:07:42.160 --> 00:07:46.399 dollars into the failing European financial system via the back 156 00:07:46.439 --> 00:07:50.040 door with with with Carney as the you know, that's 157 00:07:50.079 --> 00:07:50.480 why they. 158 00:07:50.360 --> 00:07:53.040 Put Carne in charge. It's similar to what happened when. 159 00:07:54.600 --> 00:07:57.480 Mary Droggy, the former head of the ECB, took over 160 00:07:57.519 --> 00:08:02.160 the caretaker government in Italy after they blew up the coalition, 161 00:08:02.480 --> 00:08:04.879 the populist coalition there, if you remember, you go back 162 00:08:04.879 --> 00:08:08.120 to that and knowing full well that the polls were 163 00:08:08.120 --> 00:08:11.959 all pushing eventually that Georgia Maloney would take power, but 164 00:08:12.199 --> 00:08:14.879 they forestalled that for as long as possible, put Draggy 165 00:08:14.959 --> 00:08:16.800 in place in order to do as much damage to 166 00:08:16.800 --> 00:08:19.360 Italy as possible before he was finally forced out the door, 167 00:08:19.360 --> 00:08:21.959 and then leave Maloney with an absolute mess. 168 00:08:22.360 --> 00:08:24.399 Right now, no one is going to. 169 00:08:25.839 --> 00:08:29.439 Going to is going to equate the depth of the 170 00:08:29.480 --> 00:08:33.679 Italian deep state to the Canadian deep state. But because 171 00:08:33.720 --> 00:08:35.840 the Italian deep state makes the American deep state look 172 00:08:35.919 --> 00:08:39.960 like a bunch of quakers, and because it does because 173 00:08:39.960 --> 00:08:41.960 it's a thousand years old or two thousand years old, 174 00:08:42.879 --> 00:08:48.759 much more entrenched, right, But there's definitely something going on here. 175 00:08:49.000 --> 00:08:53.200 Davos has moved heaven and earth to put Carni in 176 00:08:53.360 --> 00:08:58.039 charge by validating two thirds of the Liberal Party votes. 177 00:08:58.360 --> 00:09:01.279 And then you know, I mean I got sent the 178 00:09:01.279 --> 00:09:04.720 spreadsheet of the of the boat totals by riding and 179 00:09:04.759 --> 00:09:07.440 it was like straight across the board, ninety ten, ninety ten. 180 00:09:08.000 --> 00:09:10.200 There wasn't even any They didn't even try and hide 181 00:09:10.200 --> 00:09:12.639 the fact that they just made the numbers up like that. 182 00:09:12.759 --> 00:09:14.519 They just you know, they. 183 00:09:14.440 --> 00:09:18.039 Just ran a random number generator right on every column 184 00:09:18.080 --> 00:09:21.159 and then you know, copied and paste with values and 185 00:09:21.200 --> 00:09:22.879 then they were done to the hide their work. 186 00:09:24.080 --> 00:09:25.840 I can almost bet you that's what they did. 187 00:09:26.440 --> 00:09:28.840 It was a conclusion that Carney was going to be 188 00:09:28.879 --> 00:09:29.559 the next prime. 189 00:09:29.360 --> 00:09:32.720 Minister, right because they needed him to come into play. 190 00:09:32.720 --> 00:09:34.600 There's no way that Christian Friedlan was going to be 191 00:09:35.080 --> 00:09:38.200 prime minister. Her job was to act crazy what she is, 192 00:09:38.720 --> 00:09:44.480 the crazy you know Ukrainian diaspora bitch that she is, 193 00:09:44.919 --> 00:09:48.600 and and then push every and then say okay, well 194 00:09:48.600 --> 00:09:50.600 we're going to have more Carney come in because he's 195 00:09:50.759 --> 00:09:55.919 a nice, you know, offensive list technocrat. 196 00:09:56.279 --> 00:09:58.480 Again classic kind of Davos play. 197 00:09:58.879 --> 00:10:01.320 We have the crazy woman and saying we need New 198 00:10:01.600 --> 00:10:05.759 Canada needs nuclear weapons to defend against the evil United States. 199 00:10:05.759 --> 00:10:08.600 And then Mark karneye comes in, right, That's like, that's 200 00:10:08.639 --> 00:10:12.279 the way they always play this. So McCarney, being a 201 00:10:12.320 --> 00:10:16.399 central banker, understands plumbing, understands global plumbing, understands that they're 202 00:10:16.519 --> 00:10:18.799 they're plumbing for the carbon credits, the carbon taxes and 203 00:10:18.840 --> 00:10:21.000 everything else far better than I do. Like I'm not 204 00:10:21.000 --> 00:10:22.200 going to sit here in the ark that I know 205 00:10:22.240 --> 00:10:24.519 exactly what we're going to do, because I will. I'm 206 00:10:24.559 --> 00:10:27.480 not going to blow up smoke up anybody's ass about that. 207 00:10:27.799 --> 00:10:29.600 But I do know is how these people operate and 208 00:10:29.600 --> 00:10:32.480 with how they think, because it's pretty obvious, and they 209 00:10:32.600 --> 00:10:36.679 need to be able to continue to have as many 210 00:10:36.840 --> 00:10:40.840 offshore sources of cheap dollars, some lever up through City 211 00:10:40.879 --> 00:10:44.360 of London to control the flow of dollars at the 212 00:10:44.399 --> 00:10:49.720 margin globally in order to keep the system afloat, while 213 00:10:49.720 --> 00:10:52.519 Trump pulls back on the amount of dollars that we're 214 00:10:52.519 --> 00:10:55.960 going to send out overseas over time. 215 00:10:56.159 --> 00:11:00.480 Okay, so all the budget cuts right, all of the. 216 00:11:02.120 --> 00:11:04.799 All of the spending cuts that they want to enact, 217 00:11:04.840 --> 00:11:06.159 and they can enact, and we're going to get to 218 00:11:06.159 --> 00:11:09.519 the continuing resolution in a second here, And why I'm 219 00:11:09.559 --> 00:11:11.799 really angry with Thomas Massey because he should know better, 220 00:11:11.960 --> 00:11:15.080 because he does know better, because he's been briefed. 221 00:11:14.720 --> 00:11:15.840 As to what the difference is. 222 00:11:16.320 --> 00:11:22.840 But you know, you have a the stock of dollars 223 00:11:22.879 --> 00:11:25.440 does not matter. The stock of dollars is reserves isn't 224 00:11:25.480 --> 00:11:27.559 really important. What's always important is the flow at the 225 00:11:27.600 --> 00:11:31.519 margin of anything. Like any basic understanding of economics is 226 00:11:31.559 --> 00:11:33.559 that prices are set at the margin. So the price 227 00:11:33.559 --> 00:11:35.440 for dollars is set at the margin. So if Trump 228 00:11:35.480 --> 00:11:37.440 is pulling back on hundreds of billions of dollars on 229 00:11:37.480 --> 00:11:41.519 a yearly basis going overseas to liquidate to to liquefy 230 00:11:42.559 --> 00:11:46.440 shadow banking in dollars around the world outside of the 231 00:11:46.480 --> 00:11:51.000 FEDS of ability to control, then more sources for them better. 232 00:11:51.039 --> 00:11:53.600 And if he's going to drive those up, then they 233 00:11:53.600 --> 00:11:55.279 have to come up with new ways to deal with it. Now, 234 00:11:55.639 --> 00:11:58.000 the key to this is understanding that the Canada runs 235 00:11:58.000 --> 00:12:00.159 the ten billion dollar a month trades for plus the 236 00:12:00.279 --> 00:12:00.960 United States. 237 00:12:01.080 --> 00:12:02.039 In twenty twenty. 238 00:12:01.759 --> 00:12:03.840 Four, the Canada ran one hundred twenty four point five 239 00:12:03.840 --> 00:12:06.399 billion dollar trade surplus with the United states, This is 240 00:12:06.759 --> 00:12:09.600 just trade surplus. When Trump bandies around the number two 241 00:12:09.720 --> 00:12:13.399 hundred billion dollars a year, that's Canada's stealing from US. Well, 242 00:12:13.440 --> 00:12:15.000 one hundred and twenty four billion to that is the 243 00:12:15.039 --> 00:12:17.120 trade surplus. And I'm sure that he's got some other 244 00:12:17.279 --> 00:12:19.960 sources of revenue that he's thrown in there, and then 245 00:12:20.000 --> 00:12:21.960 he likes to exaggerate by twenty percent because he's Donald 246 00:12:21.960 --> 00:12:26.360 Trump again, and there's no known cure. So when you 247 00:12:26.360 --> 00:12:28.600 put all that together, it's very clear that that's one 248 00:12:28.639 --> 00:12:31.480 hundred and twenty four billion dollars that can be used 249 00:12:31.799 --> 00:12:35.080 in a bond issuance to pay a lot of coupon payments. Specifically, 250 00:12:35.200 --> 00:12:37.240 one hundred and ten billion dollars a month is three 251 00:12:37.320 --> 00:12:42.399 hundred billion dollars worth of US dollar denominated bonds at 252 00:12:42.480 --> 00:12:46.519 three percent, Right, that's a lot of money, or. 253 00:12:47.679 --> 00:12:48.639 So it levels. 254 00:12:48.679 --> 00:12:53.440 They're doing it to beat down interest rates. 255 00:12:53.519 --> 00:12:56.759 They're doing it to create a dollar dollar carry trade 256 00:12:56.759 --> 00:12:58.279 between the Fed and the Bank of Canada. 257 00:13:00.320 --> 00:13:01.759 Because traditionally this. 258 00:13:01.759 --> 00:13:04.759 Is why would Carne, Why would Carne play ball? Like 259 00:13:05.799 --> 00:13:08.759 my understanding is that the Trumpet admin and you know 260 00:13:08.799 --> 00:13:11.120 the Davos crowd, which I put Carne in that camp 261 00:13:11.159 --> 00:13:15.240 or at odds with one another, so. 262 00:13:13.799 --> 00:13:15.200 So again, go again. 263 00:13:15.639 --> 00:13:17.080 The point being is that the carry trade is that 264 00:13:17.080 --> 00:13:18.639 you're doing an end run around the FED. The FED 265 00:13:18.720 --> 00:13:22.399 is trying to hold monitoring polls tight, and we expect 266 00:13:22.440 --> 00:13:24.960 them tomorrow to not cut rates. The Bank Canada's cut 267 00:13:25.039 --> 00:13:26.919 rates the other day. So it's really funny, is like 268 00:13:27.080 --> 00:13:29.200 that Wednesday morning, I'm sitting there putting the slides together 269 00:13:29.240 --> 00:13:31.279 for my market report and doing the thing and thinking 270 00:13:31.360 --> 00:13:33.320 about this, and I'm like, and I was done early 271 00:13:33.480 --> 00:13:35.440 because I had gotten up because I got finally gotten 272 00:13:35.440 --> 00:13:37.320 a decent night sleep, went to bed early, got up 273 00:13:37.360 --> 00:13:38.840 at like six o'clock, and by eight thirty I was 274 00:13:38.879 --> 00:13:40.519 ready to record. Now, usually I am not ready to 275 00:13:40.559 --> 00:13:43.159 record till ten ten thirty in the morning. And I'm like, oh, 276 00:13:43.200 --> 00:13:45.600 I gotta wait, because the Bank of Canadas, if I'm 277 00:13:45.639 --> 00:13:47.200 right about all this, the Bank Canada is going to 278 00:13:47.240 --> 00:13:48.879 announce that they're going to cut interest rates by twenty 279 00:13:48.919 --> 00:13:52.240 five basis points in twenty minutes. And then they did. 280 00:13:52.799 --> 00:13:55.480 Got you because it makes sense because here's the thing. 281 00:13:57.200 --> 00:13:59.120 The bank to the Bank Canada likes. 282 00:13:59.000 --> 00:14:00.000 To keep interest rates. 283 00:14:00.039 --> 00:14:02.519 It's about twenty five to fifty bases points below the 284 00:14:02.559 --> 00:14:05.480 Fed Funds rate. So as Powell was raising sharply during 285 00:14:05.519 --> 00:14:07.840 twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three, the Bank Canada 286 00:14:07.879 --> 00:14:09.840 went along with them, and they'd hit five percent while 287 00:14:09.879 --> 00:14:10.759 we hit five and a half. 288 00:14:11.159 --> 00:14:12.679 But since then, Powell's. 289 00:14:12.279 --> 00:14:15.679 Come down a point. They've come down to two seven 290 00:14:15.720 --> 00:14:18.519 to five. They've cut two and a quarter. Okay, so 291 00:14:18.600 --> 00:14:20.879 that spread is now much much wider than it was 292 00:14:20.919 --> 00:14:25.039 in the past and it's ever been, and I expect 293 00:14:25.080 --> 00:14:27.519 that it's going to continue. I expect Powell to start 294 00:14:27.519 --> 00:14:30.159 cutting rates again later in the year. I mean, I 295 00:14:30.200 --> 00:14:31.960 fully expect by the end of the year will be 296 00:14:32.000 --> 00:14:34.399 closer to three percent than four percent on the Fed 297 00:14:34.440 --> 00:14:36.960 Funds rate. I've been calling for either three, two five 298 00:14:37.360 --> 00:14:40.360 or three The current so for futures market is saying 299 00:14:40.679 --> 00:14:43.279 December twenty twenty five money is three seven five. It's 300 00:14:43.279 --> 00:14:45.639 dipped as low as three five to five. We'll see. 301 00:14:46.519 --> 00:14:49.600 We have an FOMC meeting tomorrow, so that will change. 302 00:14:50.039 --> 00:14:54.279 That will probably move that market in some probably move 303 00:14:54.320 --> 00:14:57.080 it down fifteen basis points tomorrow. I'm just knowing the 304 00:14:57.120 --> 00:15:00.919 way this market works. So when I'm thinking here is 305 00:15:00.919 --> 00:15:04.159 is you set up why would you drop that? Why 306 00:15:04.200 --> 00:15:05.919 would you widen that spread if you weren't going to 307 00:15:05.960 --> 00:15:08.440 try and set up a dollar dollar carry trade between 308 00:15:08.679 --> 00:15:13.279 Canadian issued offshore dollars and American dollars, right, because now 309 00:15:13.320 --> 00:15:15.480 you can borrow it and two point seventy five percent 310 00:15:15.559 --> 00:15:18.279 in the US dollars and then invest it four point 311 00:15:18.279 --> 00:15:20.679 twenty five or four point or even worse four point 312 00:15:20.759 --> 00:15:24.279 six than the thirty Right. And if you look at 313 00:15:24.279 --> 00:15:26.559 the way they the US yield curve is sitting right now, 314 00:15:26.639 --> 00:15:28.799 there's a big kink between six months and two years, 315 00:15:28.879 --> 00:15:30.480 and then the long end of the curve is up 316 00:15:30.679 --> 00:15:31.240 really strong. 317 00:15:31.279 --> 00:15:34.639 So the market has pushed the thirty year up like 318 00:15:34.679 --> 00:15:38.080 thirty basis points over the ten and that's the highest 319 00:15:38.080 --> 00:15:39.480 to spin in, you. 320 00:15:39.440 --> 00:15:42.840 Know, going back to green span. Okay, since Bernanki took 321 00:15:42.879 --> 00:15:44.559 us to the zero bound, it hasn't been that high. 322 00:15:44.799 --> 00:15:49.200 Forever that spread has been that high. So why would 323 00:15:49.240 --> 00:15:51.120 that be, Well, you know, if you want to write 324 00:15:51.120 --> 00:15:54.919 the headlines that administration, well it is. If you want 325 00:15:54.919 --> 00:15:59.200 to write headlines that that Trump is sowing global chaos, 326 00:15:59.720 --> 00:16:02.320 well would you do if you were Davos, you'd sell 327 00:16:02.600 --> 00:16:05.320 some of your stock of treasuries? Especially the long dated ones, 328 00:16:05.440 --> 00:16:06.919 to push up the long end of the yeld curve, 329 00:16:07.600 --> 00:16:09.840 and you'd buy the short end of the yield curve, 330 00:16:10.759 --> 00:16:13.200 right so right, you would create. 331 00:16:13.000 --> 00:16:14.759 Well because then you have the inversion and then the 332 00:16:14.799 --> 00:16:16.120 expectation is a recession. 333 00:16:16.639 --> 00:16:17.000 BI can go. 334 00:16:18.360 --> 00:16:21.279 So remember, one of the things that I figured out 335 00:16:21.559 --> 00:16:23.399 I've been tracking over the last three years since Palace 336 00:16:23.399 --> 00:16:27.080 Server raising race, was that it's been the Europeans that 337 00:16:27.080 --> 00:16:30.039 have been buying a crap ton of US treasuries. They've 338 00:16:30.320 --> 00:16:33.399 bought as of the last TICE report, they've bought and 339 00:16:33.480 --> 00:16:35.960 I haven't done this month, so I guess the fifteenth 340 00:16:36.039 --> 00:16:38.440 was over the weekend. So okay, as of last month's 341 00:16:38.480 --> 00:16:40.799 TIC report, I haven't done this month yet, but i'll 342 00:16:40.960 --> 00:16:43.320 add it in. So as of December of twenty twenty 343 00:16:43.440 --> 00:16:46.440 four or January, yeah, twenty twenty four, back to September 344 00:16:46.480 --> 00:16:50.519 of twenty twenty one, over that time, the central banks 345 00:16:50.519 --> 00:16:54.440 that I associate with Europe and the UK have bought 346 00:16:54.480 --> 00:16:57.120 over one point one trillion dollars net net of US treasuries, 347 00:16:58.759 --> 00:17:03.440 significantly China and China and the and Japan. In the 348 00:17:03.480 --> 00:17:06.160 early stages of the rate hikes and the tightening during 349 00:17:06.319 --> 00:17:08.960 in the in the months before Powall started raising rates, 350 00:17:09.079 --> 00:17:10.519 and then that early in those early days when it 351 00:17:10.559 --> 00:17:15.640 was just building the massive reverse repo balanced during twenty 352 00:17:15.640 --> 00:17:18.759 twenty one, and during all that they sold a bunch 353 00:17:18.839 --> 00:17:21.319 and then they stopped, and then basically the Asia Pacific 354 00:17:21.400 --> 00:17:22.039 has been flat. 355 00:17:22.200 --> 00:17:23.759 The rest of the world, the rest of the world. 356 00:17:23.599 --> 00:17:26.960 Who's not defined as the European Union, plus the British 357 00:17:27.200 --> 00:17:29.759 and all of their attendant Central Bank and their their 358 00:17:29.759 --> 00:17:33.720 attendent subsidiaries, and it didn't count Singapore and Hong Kong 359 00:17:33.759 --> 00:17:37.039 in that list. Like this, they're still dumped in in 360 00:17:37.119 --> 00:17:39.359 the in the Asia Pacific pile. But just like the 361 00:17:39.400 --> 00:17:42.400 Bahamas and the British Virgin Islands and the Caymans and 362 00:17:42.559 --> 00:17:46.440 Ireland and Canada, they've all bought a shit ton of 363 00:17:46.519 --> 00:17:47.079 US treasuries. 364 00:17:47.119 --> 00:17:47.599 As a matter of. 365 00:17:47.599 --> 00:17:50.720 Fact, as of you know, it's been neck and neck 366 00:17:50.799 --> 00:17:53.200 now for a couple for the last six months between 367 00:17:53.240 --> 00:17:55.960 the Bank of England or China being the second largest 368 00:17:55.960 --> 00:18:00.680 holder of US treasuries as reserves. Central banks, right, which 369 00:18:00.759 --> 00:18:03.599 was the British have never owned this many. So now 370 00:18:03.640 --> 00:18:06.240 that here's the question for you, why would they do that? Well, 371 00:18:06.240 --> 00:18:09.000 they were doing that in in order to keep a 372 00:18:09.119 --> 00:18:13.000 cap on bond heelds overseas, right, and to keep a 373 00:18:13.039 --> 00:18:15.079 cap on, we'll keep a cap on the US bond 374 00:18:15.160 --> 00:18:16.279 yields in order to keep it. 375 00:18:16.319 --> 00:18:17.559 Then attendantly keep a. 376 00:18:17.599 --> 00:18:20.440 Cap on bond yields overseas because everything is about keeping 377 00:18:21.000 --> 00:18:24.039 like the interest rates and the exchange rates and a 378 00:18:24.079 --> 00:18:27.640 certain and a certain band. And outside of those bands 379 00:18:27.680 --> 00:18:31.039 is when is when interest rate derivatives start to pop 380 00:18:31.079 --> 00:18:33.480 off and people start to need to get paid because 381 00:18:33.640 --> 00:18:34.279 they're all. 382 00:18:34.119 --> 00:18:35.519 Hedged in a tight band. 383 00:18:35.799 --> 00:18:38.920 You get outside of the band, and now something has 384 00:18:38.920 --> 00:18:40.880 to happen, and you can watch and you can see 385 00:18:40.880 --> 00:18:43.319 this in a number of different charts. You can look 386 00:18:43.359 --> 00:18:47.200 at the euro pound cross of how hard they've defended 387 00:18:47.400 --> 00:18:50.279 eighty three cents. You can look at the up until recently, 388 00:18:50.319 --> 00:18:53.720 the German ten year yield was defended a two point 389 00:18:53.720 --> 00:18:56.759 five percent on the German ten year yield for three years. 390 00:18:56.759 --> 00:18:59.359 So was the French yield three percent, It was it 391 00:18:59.359 --> 00:19:04.119 was everywhere and well guard you're running a yieldcare control 392 00:19:04.279 --> 00:19:06.799 program while she was in power, and now that she's not, 393 00:19:07.079 --> 00:19:09.240 now that now those markets are starting to break down 394 00:19:09.519 --> 00:19:11.559 and they need other ways to deal with to try 395 00:19:11.599 --> 00:19:14.920 and keep the spreads from blowing out, or they need 396 00:19:14.960 --> 00:19:18.119 to accelerate the collapse of the European bond markets with 397 00:19:18.480 --> 00:19:23.200 profligate spending and go for a digital euro war blah 398 00:19:23.240 --> 00:19:25.079 blah blah blah blah, which is what I think they're 399 00:19:25.079 --> 00:19:26.160 actually trying to set up. 400 00:19:26.200 --> 00:19:27.880 But they're trying to prime Trump for it. Not that. 401 00:19:28.839 --> 00:19:33.279