WEBVTT 1 00:00:25.120 --> 00:00:30.320 And Hi, how are you welcome? Welcome to the Big Podcast. 2 00:00:30.600 --> 00:00:34.920 Is Thursday. Today is the second day of October, year 3 00:00:35.039 --> 00:00:38.000 of our Lord, twenty twenty five. My name is Tom Sullivan. 4 00:00:38.119 --> 00:00:42.399 So a fairly busy day to day. We've got I know, 5 00:00:42.479 --> 00:00:44.520 I know, I know, I know, I know. I can't 6 00:00:44.560 --> 00:00:48.119 keep talking about the shutdown. And it's their fault. It's 7 00:00:48.200 --> 00:00:51.159 not my fault, it's their fault. And so that's what 8 00:00:51.240 --> 00:00:53.880 the politicians are pointing the finger at each other. We'll 9 00:00:53.920 --> 00:00:56.880 dig into it. It's getting to be there's actually some 10 00:00:59.039 --> 00:01:01.880 focus on that I think makes more sense. We'll talk 11 00:01:01.920 --> 00:01:05.799 a little bit about it today being Thursday. Tomorrow is 12 00:01:05.799 --> 00:01:08.480 the first Friday of the month, and we're not going 13 00:01:08.519 --> 00:01:10.799 to get the jobs report out, but we've got some 14 00:01:11.000 --> 00:01:15.519 information about the state of the labor market in our country. 15 00:01:17.840 --> 00:01:25.319 Tragedy in Manchester, England on Yam Kapor today is the 16 00:01:25.359 --> 00:01:30.840 holiest day of the Jewish calendar, and mad man drove 17 00:01:30.879 --> 00:01:36.400 his car into a crowd that was assembled for at 18 00:01:36.439 --> 00:01:39.280 one of the synagogues in Manchester in the suburbs. There 19 00:01:39.680 --> 00:01:44.159 two dead, four injured. Drove into the crowd then got 20 00:01:44.239 --> 00:01:48.079 out of the car. And remember England doesn't you know, 21 00:01:48.079 --> 00:01:49.959 they're very tight on guns. So what did he do. 22 00:01:50.040 --> 00:01:52.159 He started he had a big long knife and started 23 00:01:52.159 --> 00:01:58.319 stabbing anybody and everybody he could stab. So violence is 24 00:01:58.959 --> 00:02:03.400 not just here sadly in the US. 25 00:02:03.640 --> 00:02:06.480 So uh oh. 26 00:02:06.560 --> 00:02:10.879 And speaking of violence, the mayor of Memphis, we've got 27 00:02:10.879 --> 00:02:14.280 some comments from him, We've got some comments from Portland. 28 00:02:15.360 --> 00:02:20.240 We've got some comments about the guy running for mayor, 29 00:02:22.159 --> 00:02:26.039 yes or on Mondani in New York City. But I want, 30 00:02:26.080 --> 00:02:29.639 I want to start with something that I just I thought. 31 00:02:29.680 --> 00:02:31.520 I thought i'd start with this so I can get 32 00:02:31.560 --> 00:02:34.639 you kind of thinking about it, and that is have 33 00:02:35.039 --> 00:02:42.560 you heard about Kamala Harris's book tour. I'm telling you 34 00:02:44.240 --> 00:02:50.120 her book sales are to the moon. She is doing great. 35 00:02:50.680 --> 00:02:53.319 I mean, I don't know how to say it any better, 36 00:02:53.360 --> 00:02:57.520 but I mean this is she's she's and she's on 37 00:02:57.759 --> 00:03:01.919 a tour. But so far, Simon and said that her 38 00:03:02.080 --> 00:03:07.080 book One hundred seven Days, about her campaign. Simon and 39 00:03:07.120 --> 00:03:12.000 Schuster said that as of the first week of it 40 00:03:12.159 --> 00:03:17.319 being on sale, they have sold three hundred and fifty 41 00:03:17.639 --> 00:03:23.400 thousand copies. Now to make the New York Times Best 42 00:03:23.439 --> 00:03:27.919 Selling List, you have to sell at least twenty five thousand. 43 00:03:28.120 --> 00:03:31.800 She is in one week already sold three hundred and 44 00:03:31.960 --> 00:03:36.080 fifty thousand copies of her book one hundred and seven days. 45 00:03:36.639 --> 00:03:40.000 It puts it on track to be this year's top 46 00:03:40.360 --> 00:03:47.120 selling memoir. Only three people have exceeded that in modern history. 47 00:03:47.159 --> 00:03:52.680 That would be Britney Spears, Taylor Swift, and Prince Harry 48 00:03:52.879 --> 00:03:56.360 in that the last time they got anywhere near that 49 00:03:56.360 --> 00:04:02.879 that was back in twenty twenty three. So it's a 50 00:04:02.919 --> 00:04:05.840 great seller, I'll tell you that. And it's all about 51 00:04:07.000 --> 00:04:12.319 her trip down politics Lane during the campaign for president 52 00:04:12.360 --> 00:04:17.959 in twenty twenty four. So some of the Democrats not 53 00:04:17.959 --> 00:04:22.160 not all that thrilled with this. Josh Shapiro, the governor 54 00:04:22.199 --> 00:04:26.879 of Pennsylvania. She trashes him, saying something to the effect 55 00:04:26.959 --> 00:04:32.839 of he would not do well as a vice president 56 00:04:32.839 --> 00:04:36.879 because he would try to push to be number one. 57 00:04:37.240 --> 00:04:40.560 She talked about Pete Buddha Judge. She liked Pete Budha Judge, 58 00:04:40.560 --> 00:04:44.279 but he was gay, and I thought, wait a minute, 59 00:04:44.319 --> 00:04:47.120 I thought, you when it came to hiring you, don't 60 00:04:47.279 --> 00:04:52.720 dare say I'm not hiring you because you're gay. That's illegal. 61 00:04:54.160 --> 00:04:56.399 But she said, oh no, I didn't want to hire him. 62 00:04:56.480 --> 00:05:00.800 To be the number two because he's gay and Newsom 63 00:05:00.879 --> 00:05:04.519 this is a this is a crackup. So she finds 64 00:05:04.560 --> 00:05:08.480 out that Joe finally said okay, okay, okay, I'm throwing 65 00:05:08.480 --> 00:05:13.439 the talent. I'm gonna not run. And so she got 66 00:05:13.519 --> 00:05:17.480 on the phone and started calling good for her, but 67 00:05:17.480 --> 00:05:20.720 but you know, Dillon for dollars she was. She called 68 00:05:20.879 --> 00:05:24.480 all the major Democrats she could think of and said, 69 00:05:24.720 --> 00:05:27.439 support me, support me, support me. I want you, I 70 00:05:27.480 --> 00:05:30.120 want your endorsement. And she called all these people, and 71 00:05:30.199 --> 00:05:33.879 she called Gavin Newsom and he did not return to 72 00:05:34.040 --> 00:05:37.000 that answer and did not return her call. He sent 73 00:05:37.079 --> 00:05:43.480 her a text message one word hiking. So no, he 74 00:05:43.560 --> 00:05:48.120 wasn't going to return her call. And so she didn't 75 00:05:48.199 --> 00:05:50.040 like that, and so she put that in her book. 76 00:05:51.279 --> 00:05:56.319 But anyway, the question is, is she throwing Democrats under 77 00:05:56.360 --> 00:06:00.560 the bus because she's just thick of politics and that's it, 78 00:06:00.680 --> 00:06:01.920 this is her swan song. 79 00:06:02.680 --> 00:06:03.360 Or is she. 80 00:06:05.199 --> 00:06:09.759 Doing this to push them out of the way because 81 00:06:09.800 --> 00:06:12.399 you know that they're all going to be on the 82 00:06:12.399 --> 00:06:16.279 same debate stage. You know they are come twenty twenty 83 00:06:16.319 --> 00:06:18.920 seven when they're running for twenty twenty eight, when they're 84 00:06:18.959 --> 00:06:22.720 running for president, next time around. So I'm looking at 85 00:06:22.720 --> 00:06:26.040 this and I'm thinking she's going to look at these 86 00:06:26.079 --> 00:06:32.959 book sales and she's going to translate that to I've 87 00:06:33.000 --> 00:06:36.639 got a lot of support. The people love me, they 88 00:06:36.720 --> 00:06:41.399 really love me. Why then I'm going to run. And 89 00:06:41.439 --> 00:06:46.160 she's a terrible candidate, just terrible. First time she ran, 90 00:06:46.360 --> 00:06:49.079 she was the first one to drop out because nobody 91 00:06:49.720 --> 00:06:51.879 gave her the time of day. And then she got 92 00:06:51.920 --> 00:06:57.160 into the word salad thing, which but Joe Biden needed 93 00:06:58.240 --> 00:07:02.600 a black female to be his running mate, and I 94 00:07:02.639 --> 00:07:06.199 think there's another whole story there about how he selected her. 95 00:07:06.319 --> 00:07:10.639 But in any case, the part of the book that 96 00:07:10.720 --> 00:07:14.160 probably gets the most attention is where she threw Joe 97 00:07:14.160 --> 00:07:21.639 Biden under the bus, and she said that she wrote that, 98 00:07:21.720 --> 00:07:25.199 in hindsight, refraining from pushing him to drop out of 99 00:07:25.240 --> 00:07:30.160 the presidential race earlier was reckless. So she threw the 100 00:07:30.160 --> 00:07:32.759 whold armed party and said, how dare how did you 101 00:07:32.839 --> 00:07:37.000 not get him out sooner? And then on the view 102 00:07:38.920 --> 00:07:41.160 she said, this is just last week. She said, it's 103 00:07:41.199 --> 00:07:45.000 a good relationship with Joe, and it's the relationshipship that's 104 00:07:45.040 --> 00:07:48.519 based on mutual respect, having been in the trenches together 105 00:07:48.639 --> 00:07:51.920 in admiration and it's sincere, so who knows how she 106 00:07:51.959 --> 00:07:55.160 really feels about all. Listen, I'm sure the book publisher, 107 00:07:55.199 --> 00:07:59.279 Simon and Schuster, like any good book editor, is gonna 108 00:07:59.319 --> 00:08:01.959 want juicy stuff in there to get the book to sell. 109 00:08:02.279 --> 00:08:02.560 Well. 110 00:08:02.639 --> 00:08:05.279 It's selling really well, all right, So that's this part 111 00:08:05.319 --> 00:08:09.079 of it. Now she's on this book tour. There are 112 00:08:09.279 --> 00:08:13.720 fifteen cities that she is going to. It's just started. 113 00:08:14.920 --> 00:08:19.279 I looked at some of the tickets for these for 114 00:08:19.360 --> 00:08:22.480 the for the tour. Now, first of all, she's going 115 00:08:22.560 --> 00:08:26.120 to make a lot of money from this this book 116 00:08:26.199 --> 00:08:29.040 if she's already sold three hundred and fifty thousand, and 117 00:08:29.120 --> 00:08:31.720 that's just the first week, so she's going to make 118 00:08:31.759 --> 00:08:35.440 a lot of money off of that. Good for her. 119 00:08:36.120 --> 00:08:40.919 But the tickets are all over the map, depends upon 120 00:08:40.919 --> 00:08:45.159 what city you're in. I was looking in Houston, the 121 00:08:45.200 --> 00:08:51.240 tickets are one hundred and seventy two dollars, and you 122 00:08:51.320 --> 00:08:57.840 think that's something. In San Francisco, where she used to live, 123 00:08:58.519 --> 00:09:01.200 four hundred dollars for a ticket, one ticket to go 124 00:09:01.399 --> 00:09:05.519 to see her on her book tour Atlanta. The way 125 00:09:05.559 --> 00:09:07.799 the book tour is she she has somebody sit on 126 00:09:07.840 --> 00:09:13.159 stage with her and basically ask her pre arranged questions. 127 00:09:14.279 --> 00:09:17.360 Atlanta four hundred and two dollars for a ticket in 128 00:09:18.519 --> 00:09:21.879 oh and they have it. They have no that was 129 00:09:21.960 --> 00:09:24.799 that's in the that's in the nosebleed seats, nine hundred 130 00:09:24.879 --> 00:09:29.639 and seventy three dollars in Atlanta for a ticket, six 131 00:09:29.720 --> 00:09:32.679 hundred seventy six dollars for a ticket in d C 132 00:09:34.200 --> 00:09:36.759 for the cheap seats. Then they go up to Asia 133 00:09:36.759 --> 00:09:40.279 as one thousand, four hundred seventy nine dollars for a 134 00:09:40.320 --> 00:09:46.039 ticket in DC, Chicago one thousand, one hundred and sixty 135 00:09:46.039 --> 00:09:51.440 two dollars for a ticket, and in Partland, we'll get 136 00:09:51.440 --> 00:09:55.279 to Portland. In Portland one thousand, two hundred and thirty 137 00:09:55.320 --> 00:10:02.639 five dollars. So the lady is doing really well. She's 138 00:10:02.720 --> 00:10:05.919 making a lot of money. She's going to feel like 139 00:10:06.000 --> 00:10:10.159 a star that these uh, these book tours are going 140 00:10:10.480 --> 00:10:13.759 I'm going to guess they're going to sell out. And 141 00:10:14.159 --> 00:10:16.000 so she'll make a lot of money and she'll have 142 00:10:16.320 --> 00:10:19.679 big crowds that will be applauding for her, and she 143 00:10:19.759 --> 00:10:23.440 will have pre arranged questions that she will be answering. 144 00:10:24.480 --> 00:10:30.480 I I don't know she was this was where did 145 00:10:30.519 --> 00:10:33.000 I get this from? Let me see if I can 146 00:10:33.039 --> 00:10:37.240 find this. Oh, it came from TikTok. She's all over TikTok. 147 00:10:37.360 --> 00:10:39.639 Let me let me play this for you. It's it's 148 00:10:39.720 --> 00:10:41.039 classic Kamala Harris. 149 00:10:47.120 --> 00:10:49.320 I have had the experience many people have had or 150 00:10:49.360 --> 00:10:52.840 will have had this experience of walking into her room 151 00:10:53.200 --> 00:10:56.120 and being the only one that looks like you or 152 00:10:56.200 --> 00:11:00.159 has had your life experience. And my request of you 153 00:11:01.759 --> 00:11:06.080 is that when you walk in that room, you walk 154 00:11:06.120 --> 00:11:11.639 in that room chin up and shoulders back, knowing that 155 00:11:11.679 --> 00:11:14.279 we are all in that room with you, and you 156 00:11:14.360 --> 00:11:18.960 are not alone, and you carry the voice of so 157 00:11:19.159 --> 00:11:23.360 many people who are proud that you are in that room, 158 00:11:23.919 --> 00:11:26.840 and expect your voice to be strong. 159 00:11:29.080 --> 00:11:32.960 I'm all the way. Let's give a warm welcome for 160 00:11:33.159 --> 00:11:35.000 Vice President Connor. 161 00:11:35.000 --> 00:11:39.399 Has Yeah, there you go, give a big hat noe. Listen. 162 00:11:39.480 --> 00:11:46.679 I'm not criticizing the lady. I actually think it's amazing success. 163 00:11:48.000 --> 00:11:52.080 But that little thing she did didn't that For those 164 00:11:52.120 --> 00:11:53.919 of you that are old enough, and for those of 165 00:11:53.960 --> 00:11:55.639 you that are not, you'll have to look it up. 166 00:11:56.039 --> 00:11:59.200 There was a skit on Saturday Night Live that was 167 00:11:59.279 --> 00:12:04.279 deep thought by Jack Handley. Jack Handy I think it 168 00:12:04.360 --> 00:12:10.960 was and it was just nonsense like that just said nothing. 169 00:12:11.840 --> 00:12:16.240 But man, she is selling books and she's selling out 170 00:12:16.519 --> 00:12:20.840 and not stadiums but theaters. So I don't know, is 171 00:12:21.000 --> 00:12:23.919 she well. I'll tell you what this says to me. 172 00:12:24.159 --> 00:12:28.200 This says that she is more likely than not to 173 00:12:28.360 --> 00:12:32.200 run for president in twenty twenty eight. I think this 174 00:12:32.279 --> 00:12:37.840 will absolutely solidify it. The question is, are these people 175 00:12:37.879 --> 00:12:41.919 buying her books and showing up at her events, especially 176 00:12:41.919 --> 00:12:48.519 the book buying, because they're curious or they're giving them 177 00:12:48.600 --> 00:12:53.039 to friends? What I In any case, I thought i'd 178 00:12:53.039 --> 00:12:55.879 start with a little look back on Kamala Harris. So 179 00:12:55.960 --> 00:13:00.559 she's doing just fine. Yeah she is. God bless the lady. 180 00:13:01.120 --> 00:13:07.080 The meantime, back to the world of government. We yes 181 00:13:07.799 --> 00:13:11.840 day two of the shutdown. I think it's becoming I'm 182 00:13:11.879 --> 00:13:17.360 focusing in on the gripe is about this. The Democrats 183 00:13:17.399 --> 00:13:20.879 say the Republicans are cutting off healthcare for millions of people, 184 00:13:21.600 --> 00:13:26.600 and the Republicans are saying no. During COVID, the Biden 185 00:13:26.639 --> 00:13:35.000 administration decided to subsidize Obamacare premiums for people that otherwise 186 00:13:35.039 --> 00:13:37.879 could not affect them. They were laid off, lost their jobs. 187 00:13:37.919 --> 00:13:41.279 It was COVID country was shut down. So the Biden 188 00:13:41.320 --> 00:13:47.440 administration threw trillions of dollars into premiums to help pay 189 00:13:47.519 --> 00:13:53.360 the premiums for Obamacare. And that's what in the big 190 00:13:53.399 --> 00:13:56.120 beautiful bill that was signed on the fourth of July 191 00:13:56.240 --> 00:13:59.039 of this year. That's what the Republicans took out and 192 00:13:59.080 --> 00:14:03.519 said that mean was supposed to be temporary for during 193 00:14:03.559 --> 00:14:08.559 the COVID era. COVID is pretty much over, so let's 194 00:14:08.679 --> 00:14:11.159 take that back out. And that's the one and a 195 00:14:11.200 --> 00:14:15.240 half trillion dollars that the Democrats said, no, no, no, 196 00:14:15.279 --> 00:14:17.039 you got to leave it in there. We got to 197 00:14:17.080 --> 00:14:21.200 spend that money. And the Republicans are saying no. So 198 00:14:21.279 --> 00:14:24.759 I think that's what it's coming down to. Mary Catherine Ham, 199 00:14:25.480 --> 00:14:29.240 she always has a good succinct view of the world 200 00:14:29.279 --> 00:14:32.559 in DC. That's what she has to say about that. 201 00:14:33.080 --> 00:14:34.679 No. I mean, bless their hearts. They can try to 202 00:14:34.759 --> 00:14:37.120 change the definition of clean if they want to, but 203 00:14:37.240 --> 00:14:40.399 it's not real. It's obviously true that the House passed 204 00:14:40.399 --> 00:14:42.919 a clean continuing resolution, which would have funded the government 205 00:14:42.919 --> 00:14:45.559 at current levels for seven weeks. It went to the Senate. 206 00:14:45.600 --> 00:14:47.399 The Senate had the chance to pass it with a 207 00:14:47.399 --> 00:14:50.000 couple of Democrats peeling off, and those Democrats decided not 208 00:14:50.080 --> 00:14:53.240 to because their desire is to dirty up a clean 209 00:14:53.320 --> 00:14:58.679 continuing resolution with over a trillion dollars in quote unquote 210 00:14:58.759 --> 00:15:02.399 healthcare spending. That is, these expanded Obamacare subsidies from the 211 00:15:02.440 --> 00:15:04.879 COVID era. Like many things from the COVID era, the 212 00:15:05.000 --> 00:15:08.480 price was high and the results very low. These subsidies 213 00:15:08.519 --> 00:15:12.039 go to basically covering the fact that Obamacare's promises were 214 00:15:12.039 --> 00:15:14.759 not real and that premiums keep going up, and that 215 00:15:14.840 --> 00:15:17.320 they need to say, oh, we've got more people covered. 216 00:15:17.360 --> 00:15:19.080 So what do they do. They throw a bunch of 217 00:15:19.120 --> 00:15:22.440 money at the problem. They increase cost costs for everybody else, 218 00:15:22.440 --> 00:15:26.360 and premiums go up more. They allow fraudulent and non 219 00:15:26.399 --> 00:15:31.200 income verified and non citizen status verified people to enroll, 220 00:15:31.440 --> 00:15:35.840 to double enroll. These are bad practices. This makes the 221 00:15:35.919 --> 00:15:39.399 problem worse. But they are very excited about spending money, 222 00:15:39.639 --> 00:15:41.919 and they're very excited about covering up the fact that 223 00:15:41.960 --> 00:15:44.600 Obamacare didn't do what they promised it would do, so 224 00:15:44.639 --> 00:15:46.919 they want to do it with your money. And Republicans 225 00:15:46.919 --> 00:15:47.320 are like. 226 00:15:47.399 --> 00:15:48.200 No, yeah. 227 00:15:48.320 --> 00:15:50.720 Republicans are saying, no, we took that out of the 228 00:15:51.600 --> 00:15:54.279 of the federal spending back in the big beautiful bill, 229 00:15:54.799 --> 00:15:59.919 and so now the question becomes, what are some key 230 00:16:00.080 --> 00:16:02.919 dates going forward? So we're day two into this, there's 231 00:16:02.960 --> 00:16:07.240 a couple of them. One of them is the employees. 232 00:16:07.320 --> 00:16:13.080 Federal employees got paid at the end of September Sepcember thirtieth, 233 00:16:13.679 --> 00:16:16.240 So what was that. That was two days ago and 234 00:16:16.279 --> 00:16:18.320 they got their paycheck and then they're supposed to have 235 00:16:18.320 --> 00:16:23.279 another one coming October fifteenth. So if they don't have 236 00:16:23.799 --> 00:16:27.000 the thing settled by October fifteenth, there's going to be 237 00:16:27.159 --> 00:16:30.039 a whole bunch of federal employees. They're going to be 238 00:16:30.120 --> 00:16:34.039 very unhappy about the fact that they don't get their paycheck. 239 00:16:34.519 --> 00:16:36.679 Another part of this is, and we'll get into this, 240 00:16:36.840 --> 00:16:42.399 but the unemployment reports are based upon one particular week 241 00:16:43.159 --> 00:16:45.960 of the month. They don't that's why they're able to 242 00:16:46.000 --> 00:16:47.799 give it out on the first Friday of the month. 243 00:16:47.799 --> 00:16:49.639 They're not going to do it this time. But the 244 00:16:50.039 --> 00:16:55.320 next reportable week is the week of October seventeenth, So 245 00:16:55.480 --> 00:16:58.200 the seventeenth is going to be critical for getting data 246 00:16:58.600 --> 00:17:01.799 for the FED, for you name it. So the middle 247 00:17:01.840 --> 00:17:04.519 of the month is when some of this might actually 248 00:17:05.759 --> 00:17:08.960 not go over to well. Scott Bestn't the Treasury secretary. 249 00:17:09.640 --> 00:17:11.640 He was talking about this this morning. 250 00:17:11.799 --> 00:17:14.319 What they are asking for. They're asking for one point 251 00:17:14.359 --> 00:17:18.160 five trillion increase in spending, and let's just go back, 252 00:17:18.599 --> 00:17:21.759 that would be almost as big as the ill fated IRA, 253 00:17:22.359 --> 00:17:26.960 which caused the worst inflation in half a century. So 254 00:17:27.960 --> 00:17:32.480 they want to put this inflationary impulse into President Trump's 255 00:17:32.480 --> 00:17:35.240 already strong economy. The economy is growing at three point 256 00:17:35.240 --> 00:17:38.559 eight percent. We don't need one point five trillion pumped in. 257 00:17:39.319 --> 00:17:41.160 The Democrats seem to love inflation. 258 00:17:41.880 --> 00:17:45.119 He used a little angular the IRA. That was the 259 00:17:45.160 --> 00:17:50.839 Inflation Reduction Act, which was a poorly worded bill, but 260 00:17:50.920 --> 00:17:54.680 it spent trillions of dollars. That's what he was referring to. 261 00:17:54.880 --> 00:18:00.000 Austin Goolsby, the president of Chicago FED, always a level 262 00:18:00.119 --> 00:18:04.839 headed guy. He has these thoughts about the shut. 263 00:18:04.759 --> 00:18:08.119 On the economy. It sort of depends how long it 264 00:18:08.240 --> 00:18:12.480 lasts and how widespread it is. You know, it's every shutdown. 265 00:18:12.480 --> 00:18:15.279 It's kind of like they say of dysfunctional families. You know, 266 00:18:15.880 --> 00:18:19.240 every shutdown is different. But if you look in the past, 267 00:18:19.680 --> 00:18:24.920 the overall impact from shorter and narrower shutdowns, they have 268 00:18:25.000 --> 00:18:28.759 a human impact on the people directly affected, but their 269 00:18:29.319 --> 00:18:33.240 impact on the overall economy is not as big it was, 270 00:18:33.359 --> 00:18:36.640 partly because the federal workforce is a little less than 271 00:18:36.680 --> 00:18:41.240 two percent of workers, so and it's not all federal workers. 272 00:18:41.279 --> 00:18:45.559 So I think the immediate impact is going to be 273 00:18:45.640 --> 00:18:52.559 felt most directly by folks who who have their pay frozen. 274 00:18:52.680 --> 00:18:56.240 And until the shutdown adds, it's certainly not convenient for 275 00:18:57.039 --> 00:19:00.680 the FED trying to sort out interest rates. Though I'm 276 00:19:00.680 --> 00:19:03.160 not meaning to make light. We're we're not the We're 277 00:19:03.200 --> 00:19:07.079 not the biggest sufferers from this, but we fly blind. 278 00:19:07.160 --> 00:19:12.000 Like Mohammad al Aarian said at the Chicago FED, we 279 00:19:12.440 --> 00:19:17.319 have developed recently Chicago Fed Labor Market indicators that take 280 00:19:17.720 --> 00:19:21.680 eleven different pieces of information, some from the private sector, 281 00:19:22.039 --> 00:19:25.559 some from these official statistics to get a real time 282 00:19:25.640 --> 00:19:28.480 forecast of what the unemployment rate is going to be. 283 00:19:29.000 --> 00:19:32.519 If we don't get the official unemployment rate, we're going 284 00:19:32.599 --> 00:19:35.359 to go off of what the data we have. We 285 00:19:35.400 --> 00:19:39.039 released it today. It suggests that the unemployment rate was 286 00:19:39.119 --> 00:19:43.079 unchanged for this month from last month. Get steady, you know, 287 00:19:43.720 --> 00:19:48.240 I think it's it indicates some steadiness in the labor market, 288 00:19:48.519 --> 00:19:53.000 and I think the underlying economy is still growing pretty solidly. 289 00:19:53.599 --> 00:19:55.400 So his ndswer is, like a lot of people, it 290 00:19:55.400 --> 00:19:59.279 makes sense. Depends on how long this lasts, but it 291 00:19:59.480 --> 00:20:03.880 doesn't have a big impact on the economy, at least 292 00:20:04.039 --> 00:20:08.920 short term. So another question is are Democrats starting to 293 00:20:08.960 --> 00:20:12.000 buzz in the back rooms about the fact that maybe 294 00:20:12.000 --> 00:20:15.200 there's some way to make a deal with the Republican 295 00:20:15.279 --> 00:20:20.720 Shelley more Capudo, she's a Republican senator from West Virginia. 296 00:20:21.200 --> 00:20:26.319 She thinks there's some movement behind scenes, behind the scenes 297 00:20:26.599 --> 00:20:27.440 with the Democrats. 298 00:20:27.599 --> 00:20:31.480 They're looking for a way. They're still obviously very much 299 00:20:31.519 --> 00:20:36.440 invested in having this tide to the premium support discussion, 300 00:20:36.720 --> 00:20:39.519 but at the same time they realize how damaging a 301 00:20:39.640 --> 00:20:43.920 government shutdown is to the federal workers, to anybody who 302 00:20:43.960 --> 00:20:47.839 needs services or troops, etc. And so I think they 303 00:20:47.880 --> 00:20:50.400 are trying to find a way out, and I think 304 00:20:50.440 --> 00:20:53.519 they've been led by Senator Schumer into a place that's 305 00:20:53.559 --> 00:20:57.440 almost an impossibility to get a satisfactory result for them. 306 00:20:57.640 --> 00:21:00.400 So I'm hoping they see the only way to negotiate 307 00:21:00.480 --> 00:21:02.640 and begin to talk about the things they want to 308 00:21:02.640 --> 00:21:06.039 talk about is to reopen the government, and then everything's 309 00:21:06.079 --> 00:21:09.440 back on the table, including appropriations. No, I have no 310 00:21:09.519 --> 00:21:12.480 buyer's remorse on the One Big Beautiful Bill, and I'm 311 00:21:12.480 --> 00:21:14.400 not going to relabel it either. I'm going to keep 312 00:21:14.400 --> 00:21:17.039 calling it the one Big Beautiful Bill because of what 313 00:21:17.160 --> 00:21:21.039 it does for working families, taxes, businesses, the certainty that 314 00:21:21.079 --> 00:21:24.359 it brings. On the other hand, in terms of healthcare, 315 00:21:24.599 --> 00:21:28.960 I think this covid era expansion that the Democrats put 316 00:21:29.000 --> 00:21:32.119 into effect needs to be rained back in. There's a 317 00:21:32.160 --> 00:21:34.160 lot of fraud and abuse in here, in terms of 318 00:21:34.160 --> 00:21:37.039 people double signing up, people who don't even know that 319 00:21:37.079 --> 00:21:40.720 they have plans and their you know, the insurance companies 320 00:21:40.720 --> 00:21:43.240 are getting paid for them. They don't even access the benefit. 321 00:21:43.480 --> 00:21:46.039 We've uncovered a lot of that. That's where the discussion 322 00:21:46.079 --> 00:21:48.799 needs to begin. This will not go through with a 323 00:21:48.839 --> 00:21:51.839 full extension of life as it is if if we 324 00:21:51.960 --> 00:21:54.599 get to the point where we're actually negotiating on this. 325 00:21:54.880 --> 00:21:58.200 But here's the kicker for me. How easy is it 326 00:21:58.400 --> 00:22:02.400 to reopen the government. It's a simple seven week reopen. 327 00:22:02.599 --> 00:22:05.079 Then we get to the discussions, because the best way 328 00:22:05.079 --> 00:22:07.079 to solve a lot of these problems is a regular 329 00:22:07.319 --> 00:22:12.880 appropriations process where we're setting priorities we're shutting down programs 330 00:22:13.480 --> 00:22:16.960 creating new ones that might serve better. This is the 331 00:22:17.000 --> 00:22:19.759 direction we should be going, rather than arguing on whose 332 00:22:19.759 --> 00:22:23.759 fault is this and why is this happening? We know 333 00:22:23.799 --> 00:22:26.599 why it's happening. Chuck Schumer and the Democrats have decided 334 00:22:26.599 --> 00:22:27.599 to shut the government down. 335 00:22:27.960 --> 00:22:31.680 Yeah, the Republicans keep mentioning Schumer, and the reason for 336 00:22:31.799 --> 00:22:36.000 it is the Democrats are so unhappy with Schumer. The 337 00:22:36.079 --> 00:22:39.599 last time he cave and did something to work a 338 00:22:39.680 --> 00:22:42.640 long waiting he just went along with working out a 339 00:22:42.720 --> 00:22:48.039 deal with the Republicans and the Democrats excoriated him. How 340 00:22:48.279 --> 00:22:53.720 dare he do that? So he is gunshy about trying 341 00:22:53.880 --> 00:22:58.279 to work in any way possible with Republicans. And there's 342 00:22:58.279 --> 00:23:02.319 a lot of Democrats that they do not like Donald 343 00:23:02.359 --> 00:23:06.119 Trump so much that he better not try and do 344 00:23:06.200 --> 00:23:11.440 anything that makes him look like he's working with Donald Trump. 345 00:23:11.839 --> 00:23:15.359 So this could be a while because those feelings are 346 00:23:15.400 --> 00:23:17.720 deep and Schumer knows it. 347 00:23:18.000 --> 00:23:18.079 So. 348 00:23:18.160 --> 00:23:20.920 Also in the world of politics is the mayor's race 349 00:23:21.480 --> 00:23:26.079 in New York City and Zoron, ma'am Donnie is the 350 00:23:26.160 --> 00:23:30.319 guy to beat at this point. He was on the 351 00:23:30.440 --> 00:23:35.160 view yesterday and was asked about the fact that he 352 00:23:35.599 --> 00:23:40.319 used to say defund the police, but he has walked 353 00:23:40.359 --> 00:23:43.359 that back lately, but he was asked about it anyway. 354 00:23:43.359 --> 00:23:44.559 Here's his answer. 355 00:23:44.720 --> 00:23:47.079 Back in twenty twenty, you called for defunding the police, 356 00:23:47.119 --> 00:23:50.720 something you've since walked back. How can New Yorkers trust 357 00:23:50.759 --> 00:23:54.559 you and not not be concerned that consultants are getting 358 00:23:54.559 --> 00:23:56.240 in your ear to get you elected, but you still 359 00:23:56.240 --> 00:23:57.559 hold all of those possessions. 360 00:23:57.759 --> 00:23:59.839 Well, they can rest assured that it isn't consultants. And 361 00:24:01.000 --> 00:24:05.079 I think this is another part of to be a 362 00:24:05.119 --> 00:24:08.559 young person looking to lead, is also to leave the 363 00:24:08.599 --> 00:24:10.279 opening for growth and understand. 364 00:24:10.440 --> 00:24:12.960 And can I ask, have you formally apologized to the NYPD? 365 00:24:13.279 --> 00:24:16.319 These are conversations that I'm having individually with officers, and 366 00:24:16.680 --> 00:24:19.440 I've appreciated that because it's through those conversations with rank 367 00:24:19.480 --> 00:24:22.519 and file officers that I've learned more about the difficulties 368 00:24:22.559 --> 00:24:23.240 of this job. 369 00:24:23.599 --> 00:24:26.599 So what kind of answer was that? It sounds kind 370 00:24:26.599 --> 00:24:30.200 of like a Kamala Harrow's answer. He said nothing. Karl 371 00:24:30.319 --> 00:24:33.240 Rov I think also agrees with me on it. Well, 372 00:24:33.279 --> 00:24:36.839 it was a non answer, and look, go to his website, 373 00:24:37.480 --> 00:24:41.440 go to his plan. There is no effort in there 374 00:24:41.480 --> 00:24:43.839 to say we need increased police presence. In fact, he 375 00:24:43.920 --> 00:24:47.680 has a Department of Community Safety, and number one thing 376 00:24:47.720 --> 00:24:50.240 that it's going to do is expand mental health programs. 377 00:24:50.559 --> 00:24:54.279 It's going to have outreach workers in one hundred subway stops, 378 00:24:54.599 --> 00:24:56.759 and then we're going to increase the number of transit 379 00:24:56.799 --> 00:25:00.000 assistants to quote assist New Yorkers. 380 00:24:59.599 --> 00:25:03.480 On their journey. And then we're going to have violence interrupters, 381 00:25:03.519 --> 00:25:06.480 whatever that is. And then this statement, this is in 382 00:25:06.559 --> 00:25:10.319 his platform, jails are not places where people can receive 383 00:25:10.880 --> 00:25:14.759 from a mental health can recover from a mental health crisis. 384 00:25:14.960 --> 00:25:16.640 So what are we going to do. We're going to 385 00:25:16.720 --> 00:25:19.000 do he says, We're going to have one hundred and 386 00:25:19.119 --> 00:25:23.759 eight million dollar increase and spending on homeless shelters so 387 00:25:23.799 --> 00:25:27.640 that when the mentally ill homeless can be moved out 388 00:25:27.680 --> 00:25:31.000 of the jails and moved into safe housing. There is 389 00:25:31.119 --> 00:25:35.079 no comment whatsoever about law and order and safety and 390 00:25:35.119 --> 00:25:38.759 making certain the New Yorkers are safe from violence, random 391 00:25:38.799 --> 00:25:42.039 violence on the streets. Instead, it's a mishmash of do 392 00:25:42.200 --> 00:25:45.359 good or mental health blah blah blah blah blah, help 393 00:25:45.480 --> 00:25:48.960 New Yorkers on their way with transit ambassadors, whatever the heck. 394 00:25:49.000 --> 00:25:52.680 That is taken by the fact that the US Conference 395 00:25:52.680 --> 00:25:56.480 of Mayors, which is nonpartisan, but let's face it, most 396 00:25:56.480 --> 00:25:59.720 big city mayors or Democrats, had in July report in 397 00:25:59.720 --> 00:26:02.079 which they said, we don't want the National Guard, but 398 00:26:02.160 --> 00:26:06.079 we do want increased federal assistance on major crimes, on 399 00:26:06.160 --> 00:26:09.279 tracing guns and so forth. So their attitude was not, hey, 400 00:26:09.319 --> 00:26:12.000 we're out here, not concerned about it. In fact, they 401 00:26:12.039 --> 00:26:15.720