Speaker 1: Who are.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is wager Talk Today. I am your host, Andy Lang.
It is five dollars Tuesday. Every caper as a playoff
for just five bucks. Board is packed with winners and
packed with action. Whether you're looking to jump on one
sharp player, just try out several new handicappers. Today is
the way to do it. Let's break it all down
and help you cash in. We're gonna be joined of
course by Gianny talk about Steam Report, how Keen Profit's
gonna join us, talk about the WNBA game tonight between
the Fever and the Links, and Teddy Covers will join
us talk Guardians and Cubs. Then Dan and I will
move on to our next NFL season win total with
how about damn Cowboys? Cowboys seven and a half wins?
All right, Dan, did we have anyone win yesterday's picking
the exact score?
Speaker 3: Andy?
Speaker 4: Not only did we have one person when we had
I mean basically everyone winning yes today, So it was it.
Speaker 1: Was quite the pick by the chat.
Speaker 2: So sometimes you come up with an idea and it
goes great, and then something happens that you never expected.
And having eleven people pick the same score and have
it be correct was quite quite the accomplishment, So shout
out to Greg Wheeler Bowl one, JD three seven one,
Air DUC twenty three, Major Richardson nine oh, Dust, Jose Perez, Brooke,
Gary m Solutions to world problems. What a great what
a great handle that is at Paul G eighty nine hundred.
So we're gonna have to pick one person that gets
the swag, and then Dan is reaching out to everyone else.
We'll get you guys hooked up with something. So I'm
gonna randomly pick one and it's gonna be Brooke Brook
ten nine. Brooke, Congratulations, you have won. You're going to
be getting the wag, your talk Swag package. Everyone else,
don't worry, we got something for you. But but bear
with us. We did not expect eleven people to be
right on the on a game after going a bunch
of days without anybody, So congrats to everyone, and we
are going to do it again today. We're going to
have a game where you got to pick the winner
and the exact score. So congratulations everyone out there. All right,
let's talk to Gianni and find out where the Bundy's
going today while we do it, while we get started.
Hit the like button. Guys, you know what to do.
Hit the like button and leave us a comment. Tell
us what you're enjoying about the show. Johnny, good morning,
Happy five dollars Tuesday to you, sir.
Speaker 3: My man. All right, busy, so busy today, and yesterday
was like nothing to do. I was pissed because I
got up so early for more or less nothing. I
kind of organized my shelves a little bit, but today
just been firing since the time I woke up with
fire one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight nine ten,
like fifteen sixteen baseball plays already. So if you're ever
going to buy my package, today's probably the day to
buy a baseball package for sure, because they're coming in
on some of the sides I already leaned on from yesterday.
I think I released two four percent to subscribers, so
we're ready.
Speaker 2: To go today. All right. I love the shirt you're wearing.
That's the start us. That is an awesome, awesome shirt.
Where did you get that? How long have you had it?
Speaker 4: No?
Speaker 3: Actually they still sell them now because they really Yeah,
when this started us, before they knocked down and started us,
they sold it to boy Properties, which is a low casino.
They own like Suncoast, I think the the Orleans, those
kinds of properties, so they still have it in their
gift shops. I couldn't believe it. We were just having
so threw there to grab something and I saw it.
I was like, oh, I'm grabbing that down. Make sure
for sure. They should have never knocked that place down,
should have kept it, should have built around it. That's
the cathedral. Yeah, sports betting and gambling in Vegas, other
than the original the Flamingo, which only in Vegas do
they knock down an original. But they shouldn't have knocked
down the Flamingo or the start Us. They should have
built around those two cathedrals.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. Agree. Let's take a look at where
the money is going. We only got one w NBA
game tonight, kind of limited on the sporting events, so
I'm guessing it's all MLB today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, nothing at all on that WNBA game. What I
am seeing is under money under under under and I
don't know if the early money may have been sharp
at that high number, But since then, a couple of
the accounts, you know, the recreational accounts that do bet WNBA,
they seem to like that game under because regardless of
what sign they had, whether they're taking or laying, they're
they're parlaying it and teasing it with the under. So
obviously they expect the low scoring game, at least the
betting public does. In the market kind of reflects that
it opened one sixty seven and a half. That initial
move I think went up and then it started coming
back down, and it's just kept coming down as more
public money that's into it.
Speaker 2: Looking at the MLB standings, you look like a profit.
With the Dodgers, they're already up to sixty two point
four percent win percentage. This is what we talked about
at the beginning of the year, and a lot of
these teams that were over sixty percent are dropping more
and more. Yankees are down to fifty seven percent wins,
Astros are doing well. They're at fifty nine point five,
Phillies are at fifty eight, Cubs down to fifty eight
point three, and there are those Tigers. They're still holding
strong at sixty two point four, but they're five and
five in their last ten. That's not a winning proposition
when they're going to be the favorites in all of
those So what teams. Are you kind of monitoring or
is it just kind of kind of hold still right now?
Are there any teams that you're really looking at that
are going to regress up or down?
Speaker 3: No, but there's a couple of teams that are still.
Like you know, I was high on on Minnesota when
they were underperforming early, and they're still underperforming now. They're
going to come back and win the division? Probably not?
Is that future bet toast? Probably again, it's just one
future out of probably fifteen that we bet. But I
thought when the season started they were still playing well
below market expectations and they're still there. In fact, like
I said that the guy that I trust most, he
has he still has it going. Detroit winning that one
now easily at about fifty eight to fifty nine percent
is where he expects them to end. And then Minnesota
will probably be about two games above five hundred, which
probably will not be enough even to get a wild card.
So they're not going to make the playoffs, but they
should be playing better than they are right now. I'll
just go through it real quickly for you guys, because
this is goal Like you look at a team like
right now, like Minnesota again, they're playing below Kansas City.
They're like, those teams are doing exactly what they're supposed
to be doing. Even the White Sox White Socks won
a little bit less than they should but they're expecting
to win about thirty five percent when the season's over.
They're only about it thirty three. Even the Yankees. You
look at the Yankees, they're right where they should be.
My guy has them winning fifty seven percent of their games.
They're right at fifty seven. And the team behind them,
he has Toronto and Tampa at fifty four and fifty
three and a half. So you expect both Tampa to
drop a little bit and Toronto's playing about where they
should be. And finally Houston at sixty percent, they're playing
above expectations. He has them winning the division at about
fifty six percent, and Seattle right behind them. Seattle's playing
even a little bit, a little bit below what they
should And finally, real quickly in the NL, the Cubs
supposed to win that division at fifty eight percent, that's
where they are at fifty eight percent. Philadelphia supposed to
win that division at fifty seven percent. They're at fifty
eight percent, and the Dodgers last, but not least. He
has them winning barely over sixty two percent of their games,
and like you said, they're at sixty two percent. So
again not to like say I was right, but that's
what you can expect. We have enough history now with
baseball seasons to know again there will be outliers. There's
always those athletes, those teams that outperform the betting market
that DeFi probability. That the key that you got to
remember is the sports better is you can only defy
probability for so long. You can't continue doing that. It's
kind of like we talk about when you see someone
on a hot run they're ten to one. That's not sustainable.
They're not going to continue hitting over ninety percent of
their bets. Like you can have those outliers, but they're
just not sustainable. And in baseball you have a long
enough season where the truth will unfold. That's the key
that you got to remember with baseball. Other sports it's
not the case. And I know a lot of bettingston
gets that have got burned in the past by looking
on paper. This team is not a twelve win football team.
They should be an eight win football team. This team
to regress, but there's just not enough time. In baseball.
We don't have that problem. Brother, These teams have more
than enough time to regress and progress, and they're right
around again, right where they should be. I'm looking for
someone at the bottom that I could share with you
guys that that should move up, But I really don't
see it. Everyone is kind of right where they should be.
They really aren't. They're right around where they should be.
You see Colorado, Colorado's at twenty two percent and he
has them winning about twenty eight. So Colorado's that one
team that you want to look in the second half
of the season to probably do a little better than
they did in the first half of the season.
Speaker 2: After All Star break. Uh Me, personally, I'm looking at
teams that are kind of waving the white with the
white flag and looking at they're bringing up a bunch
of young guys to see what they got in prospect.
So we're coming up on the All Star break, what's
the strategy. Is there a shift in strategy once we
get past the All Star break?
Speaker 3: No, I mean that's so key what you said. It's
so hard to determine what the team's going to do.
You know, once August rolls around mid August, and if
they're out of it, you know, what kind of motivation
do you have from the veterans and what do you
have from the young guys coming up like there to
make a statement, try to make the team. So you're
guessing a lot as far as things that you can't
even quantify motivation, that's the difficulty. But historically, second half
win totals have done very well. I know last year
we've bet a handful of them. They ended up doing
very well. So the approach, at least what I saw
the last couple of years from the second half season
win totals, it's kind of betting off the first half
win totals exactly what I talked about, what we touched
on some of those teams that are outperforming or underperforming,
and what they're going to do with the All Star
break is bet those underperforming teams over and bet those
overperforming teams under. And now they even have half a
season of sample size to take advantage of because some
of them have outperformed, some of them have underperformed. So
now you even have it played out on the field,
like before the season starts, it's just on paper. We
haven't seen anything. This is what we're projecting to happen. Now,
the projection has become a lot easier because we're gonna
have eighty plus games as data. That's a huge sample.
That's why I highly recommend looking at those second half
totals and using that approach, not being afraid to bet
the overs on those teams like Colorado, those teams that
have come out doing so bad, and not being afraid
to bet the under on teams like Detroit when that
second half season win totals come out, because again, now
not only do we have our own projections from the
beginning of the year, but we have data half a
season to go by. So yeah, I think those are
some of the best bets on the way as far
as futures come. Like I I it's worth me tying
up my money. Nobody likes to tie up that much
of their bank roll. But when October rolls around end
of September and all of a sudden, you get a
flash flush of cash in your accounts. It's a good
feeling when football comes. So subscribers, rest assured you will
have second half season win totals like you did last year.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, it's five dollars Tuesday. G I know you mentioned
it earlier, but I tell everyone once again what you
have up at wager talk.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got a four percent in Major League Baseball
for you. It's a nice total. There's even half a
run better out there. But you know I did the bat.
I gave you guys, the best of it, meaning like
I was able to go under eight and a half.
But we're going to grade it it under eight, so
there's good line still a valuable I don't think it's
gonna last all that long because I did choose the
one that multiple groups are on. It's one of those
days where I swear to you we bet fifteen plus
baseball plays, and on at least double digit of those,
it's multiple groups, so maybe five or six or manipulation.
But we're looking at some legit moves today, so I'm
excited to send those out over the next sixty minutes
to subscribers.
Speaker 2: Love it, Geohnny the Greek, thank you so much. Good
luck on five dollars Tuesday. Good look on this, Thanks
for having me slowly. We'll see you again tomorrow. All right, guys,
i'd like button and again take advantage of five dollars Tuesday,
you can grab a best bet from any handicapper for
just five bucks. Perfect time to try your favorite handicapper,
sample some new ones, stack up plays again across multiple sports.
Make sure we're betting responsibly. Stay within your bankroll, but
take advantage of this deal while it's up. You're not
gonna find a better deal in the industry than five
dollars Tuesday, so take advantage. Get as many as you want,
but again, make sure we're protecting our bankroll. Let's go
to all around the world, give out some free plays
before we talk to Hakeem profit. Here got a couple
MLB plays and a golf play. We will go to
the Braves and the Angels first, going to take the
Angels over one and a half on their team total
the first five innings. This is the play I think
you can look for today and tomorrow. Holmes is gonna
start today. It was gonna be fwent Test Flentest is
going tomorrow. That's a guy we want to fade, but Holmes.
He's better than fent But Holmes has allowed to or
more in five out of his last six starts. At
this total is only one and a half, so Angels
have put up a decent amount of runs the last
few games, so i'd look at Angels today and tomorrow.
Of course, we'll talk about the Angels tomorrow when they
go up against Flintest going to the John Deer Classic.
Ben Griffin top twenty only minus one fifteen. This is
one of the hottest guys on tour. Six straight finishes
fourteenth or better, fifth at this tournament last year, and
he's number one in total strokes gained in this field
the last three months. So Ben Griffin in the top
twenty is a guy I got circled at really good odds.
Never're gonna take a look at the Cubs and the
Guardians Guardians under three and a half team total. I
believe someone in the chat pointed this one out as well.
This is a free play from Brian Leonard on the
wager Talk Free picks page. Cleveland really struggling against lefties
and they face Boyd who has a two point six
five ERA and a one point one whip. So looking
at the Guardians under three and a half on the
team total, we have a lot of free plays loaded
on the wager Talk Free picks page. Just go there
and you'll get a lot a lot of baseball plays today.
All right, let's bring in a good friend, a keen Profit.
We're gonna talk the Fever and the Links. Get his
thoughts on w NBA. How are you this morning, Skip,
I'm okay.
Speaker 5: I enjoyed my show last night at least, so I'm
a little late this morning and I'm catching up on
some NBA news I'm seeing on my timeline. So a
lot of movement, a lot of stuff going on will
should be interesting.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's talk this Fever and the Links. Of course,
big stories. Caitlyn Clark, I guess she's the game time decision.
I would expect her to play in this one. Fever
need wins. But this is a really tough matchup for
the Fever. Here Minnesota minus six and a half over
under at one sixty four and half. What your take
on this game.
Speaker 5: I think Kaitlyn Clark will play. I think the line
will come back down. I think a lot of people
will go bet the Fever, and I'm not one of them.
If Kaitln Clark plays, I don't even care. I think
the Link started much better.
Speaker 2: Team.
Speaker 5: They're fourteen to two. I want to say they haven't
lost the game without and the Feasa Collier could be mistaken.
Maybe they lost one, but they've shown they're the best
team in the league. They're healthy, and for the Fever,
one thing I'll say is if Kayln Clark does play,
I mean she's been playing terrible lately. I want to
say she's made one out of the last twenty something threes.
She's been very bad on the road especially, and I
don't expect her to come in in one game and
look amazing because that's what they'll need to beat this
Links team. And if she doesn't play, I know in
the last game they looked a little bit better. They
beat the Dallas Wings, but that's still a Dallas Wings defense.
Arry does give them better point guard player than said Colson,
but versus a team like Minnesota, it is a much
different tests defensively. So my recommendation right now would be
wait until Cayden Clarks rolled in if you like the Links,
and then go and bet that side at the best number.
Once it drops. You like the Fever, you want to
get in right now. So I don't like the Fever.
I think the Links at the right side I do too.
Speaker 2: I think they get a lot of a lot of
publicity and a lot of times we don't talk about
the x's no's with this team. They've kind of been
struggling this year. A team I've been kind of pleasantly
surprised by Chicago Sky without Cardosa. Pace has been up,
the scoring has been up. I'm fighting this team kind
of polarizing and kind of interesting. I thought they'd be
terrible without Cardosa. So what's been your take on the
Chicago Sky as of recently.
Speaker 5: I wish I had the stats in front of me,
but pretty much, I like what they're doing with Angel Reach.
They really lack guard talent and they're starting to make
her be more of a playmaker. And you know, some
of these passes she's throwing Yolkish like passes. I just
think they're finally using her right and because of it,
they're able to have more success. I mean, she's had
the best four game stretch I think of her young career,
and that's contributing to wins. They won two out of those.
I think two out of three games or maybe two
two is better than what they were looking like to
start the year. So using her better is starting to
make the Sky look better, in my opinion.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's can I get your thoughts on some NBA
free agency things. I don't know if you saw the
Bucks wave Damian Lillard.
Speaker 1: That's what I just saw.
Speaker 2: Uh boy? Is that the first step before Giannis goes
and all of a sudden the Bucks are in a
gigantic rebuild. That was a curious move.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 5: I mean I hate to compare it to the Lakers,
but Lakers take care of their stars. Like you don't
see the Lakers going into you know, Lebronz, Oh, let's
just dump him off, or Kobe's oha dump him off.
I know they're different talents than Damian Lillard, but isn't
this the guy who tried to come back and you know,
from his injuries, to come in and play in the
playoffs for this team, and you were paying him by
waiving him. I just don't think that's good business. And
when people in your organization, other top players like Yanni,
see you're not doing good business, he's probably not gonna
want to stick around. I mean, that's universal I think
in business. So I don't like it. I don't, clearly
honest didn't like it. We'll see if he sticks around.
I don't think he will.
Speaker 2: I thought what the Nuggets did was pretty interesting. They
shipped off Porter Junior, they had Cam Johnson, they had
Bruce Brown, any other curious interesting moves. The Lakers losing
Dorian Finney Smith I thought was a.
Speaker 5: Talking care lesson Noah during the Finnish Smith. He's a
fake defender, That's what I'm calling him. He's I don't know.
He was a little bit over hyped for me. He
wasn't doing enough of what I needed was he was
doing some things. But I think we'll be all right
without Dory Phinney Smith. The Nuggets, I feel like they
got a big upgrade, you get. I mean, they pretty
much got the same player, but he plays defense too.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and then you add Bruce Brown back for them.
That's another wing who can defend you subtract Russell Westbrook.
I mean, all I'm seeing is plus plus plus plus
plus for the Nuggets, and I absolutely do not like
the Nuggets, so I hate to see it.
Speaker 2: Houston, my gosh, are they just loading up and loading up?
This could be really really Yeah, this could be a
really fun regular season to monitor between Houston and Thunder
that that that could be a crash course waiting to happen.
So yeah, your agreement.
Speaker 1: Houston Hawks too.
Speaker 2: I was gonna ask you about the Hawk because now
I love the Hawks and I love what they're doing,
and they got the perfect time to jump in the East, Like,
look at all the teams that just aren't gonna be
be competitive. What a perfect what a perfect time for
the Hawks. What do you who do you like better
what they've done? Houston or Atlanta?
Speaker 5: I really like what I see over in Atlanta, And
like you said, it's just a perfect SCENARIOO scenario for
them to be able to jump up in the East
and do better. So I always say this is personally,
wherever there's trade, there's a way. And now he's starting
to get some help around him. So I love to
see that for the Rockets. I may be, you know,
one of the few, but I am not a Jayalen
Green fan. I was happy to see them get rid
of him and move to go get KD because if
you watch the playoffs, they were starving for offense. They
could play defense, they can get stops, but nobody can
score the ball, and that's what you get. And Kevin
Durant's certified bucket getter, and they still were able to
keep most of their other good pieces. So I love
what I'm seeing in Houston. I think they'll be very competitive,
but the West is stacked. It's nothing like that that
easy path over there in the East this year. So bust,
I think I would like a little bit more right now,
just for that reason.
Speaker 2: I agree. I agree. This is I mean, this is
Trey Young's shot man, this is this is a chance
to make some big waves and show you can do it.
They get Jalen Johnson back a team. That team is
gonna be really really good, man, really really good.
Speaker 5: So one thing, Yes, I saw a question in the chat.
They said they want to know my opinion or something
on the Lakers. I'll tell you my wishless for the Lakers.
How about that? Okay, I'm hoping they get DeAndre Aiden
who he was just what he was just Wave two right,
So he's available come Wednesday to sign on somebody, and
he's in talks with the Lakers, has the same agent
as Luca. I want him as a Sinner, and I
would like Andrew Wiggins as a wing. If I can
get those two, I really like the Lakers chances this season.
If I don't, I may not like their chances this season.
So that's how I'm feeling about it right now.
Speaker 2: Conspiracy theory Lebron somehow ends up in the Eastern Conference.
Speaker 5: Well, if they don't get AIDEN, he could force his
way out. I mean, we've seen this plenty of times.
Lebron's gonna do whatever he want has to do to
try to win, whether it's going to another team or whatever.
So it was interesting that the report came out before
the AIDEN news and said, you know, he's monitoring to
see if we can be a championship team, and then
as soon as the AID and news came out, it
was like, uh, you know, he's probably gonna stick around.
So I think he'll be there.
Speaker 2: All right, Not that I want him to, I know,
I know, I know. All right, it's five dollars Tuesday, teller,
and what you have up for comments please or for clients.
Speaker 5: I haven't played anything yet. I'm gonna, like I told
you my plan for this Commissioner's Cup game already. When
I do put a five dollars play up, he'll be
for the Thursday WNBA games. And I just want to
do my due diligence and make sure I have a
nice winner for you. Guys, we had success last five
dollar Tuesday on another nice one like that, so be
on the lookout. Maybe in the next two hours I'll
be playing a WNBA play for Thursday. And also, if
you want to hear more about WNBA every single day,
come check out the show I do with Robbin Know
at ten thirty eight and Pacific Standard time Monday through Friday.
We go through the entire board and it's a good conversation.
A lot of info can help you and your decision
making process for your bets.
Speaker 2: All right, Ski, profit love doing this and yeah, we're
exciting free agency. Maybe next week can bring we can
break down some of the teams a little bit more. Hey,
season win totals will be right around the corner. And
Ski and I did it, Ronald, I believe it's in
the chat as well. We did the Eastern Conference of
Western Conference team totals season win totals last year, so
looking forward to doing that. Last day, guys, for the
seven days for sixty nine dollars special that we have
up less than ten dollars a day. You can use
this on one handicapper or we're giving the option to use
it for flex picks, so you can take one handicapper
one day, another handicapper the next day, one haitiicapper for
three days. You have the option, you have the power
to decide which handicapper that you want to use each day,
So seven days we do this every fourth of July,
seven days for sixty nine dollars, all access or flex
picks from your favorite wager Talk handicappers only six nine dollars.
Take advantage of that. At wager talk dot com. It
is five dollars Tuesday. My five dollars play is a
team total in MLB. We keep looking at these totals,
and these team totals run a twenty four and ten
run in these totals. We're thirty five and twenty in
totals in twenty twenty five. So this has been a really,
really good spot. There's a couple that jumped off the board,
but one in particular made the card as the five
dollars play, So grab that if you're interested in an
MLB team total, really really love the play. Wasn't sure
I was gonna even have a play up for five
dollars Tuesday, but line came out and it was way
too good to pass up. So that is what I
have up at wager talk dot com. Let's bring in
Teddy covers. We're gonna talk Guardians and Cubs, and then
we're gonna talk a little season win total here with
the Cowboys myself and damned, I'm certainly gonna get Teddy's
opinion on this one. Teddy, how are you, sir?
Speaker 1: What's the right answer? Stress out?
Speaker 6: It's not the right word. But the win report comes
out tomorrow, you know, Oh, today's final decision day. So
we're actively content blend on again.
Speaker 1: You know what it's for me.
Speaker 6: It all starts with the shortlist, you know, you go
through all the teams, you say, a right, these are
some overs I'm looking at. These are some unders I'm
looking at, and then you start winning them out. Which
is going to be a strong play? What might be
a five percent big ticket?
Speaker 1: This one? Maybe?
Speaker 6: Maybe this one hits the cutting room floor. So most
of those decisions have been made, but not all of them.
So today's about making the final decisions, making the final cuts,
deciding exactly I'm pretty sure what I'm going to use
for my five percent, but there's another candidate that I'm
still considering. And of course, the report comes out and
noon tomorrow, so we may we may not sleep between
now and then and he because of course we've got
to type it all up too. And you know, the
write ups for these are significant. So you know what
I like the pressure. I'm good under pressure in general.
But today's pressure day. You know, it's it's final cut dawn.
Speaker 2: That's anxiety. Man. Teddy lives for this. I'm always excited
when NBA playoffs cover aufter Teddy, it's easy win report.
And of course every time you're on the show, we
get excited. Let's let's break down. Let's go to MLB
real quick, Guardians and the Cubs and the Cubs, and
of course I'll ask you a little bit of NFL.
We got Williams going for the Guardians, Boyd for the Cubs.
Looks like we got a few Cubs lovers in the
chat here. What's your breakdown here? Cubs minus one eighty
five favorite, sure.
Speaker 1: And we've seen a lot of Cubs money since last night.
Speaker 6: Last night, what I looked at it was a minus
one sixty five for Chicago, minus one sixties out there.
So oh, the overnight and early morning money has come
for Chicago, and that line looked cheap. At the time
for Chicago. That's not necessarily the case for today. There's
a handful of bets that stand out to me for
this bogame, and it starts with some let me tell
you why I'm not taking Chicago. All right, Boyd has
been great this year. All right, The Guardians can't hit lefties.
Boyd leads the by cannon lefties.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're.
Speaker 6: Number twenty in the league over the last month in
WRC plus against lefties. They've really struggled against opposing southboard
a pause, and Boyd leads the Cubs. He's got eleven
quality starts, and you go through his game log, it's
every time he's been solid, solid, solid. But one thing
that I look for is, hey, Boyd revived his career
in Cleveland last year. If anyone knows how to take
advantage with weaknesses, if anyone knows how to hit this guy,
in theory, it should be the Guardians.
Speaker 1: And the Cubs aren't playing good baseball, you know.
Speaker 6: I mean they're four and seven their last eleven bag
got shut out again in their last contest. Yeah, they
lead to Maya. What top three in run scored this
year for Chicago, but not lately that lineup, there's been
a lot more missed than hit. They've been held the
two runs or ethnic eleven times over the course of
the last month. So it's not a lineup that's clicking
on all cylinders right now. For the Cubs, they're not
playing great baseball. At the same time, we look at
Gavin Williams and the Guardians and we've been waiting for
this for two years for Cleveland, you know, when they
finally you know, the Guardians way overachieved last year compared
to this Tisco profile. They won all the one run
games they're bulping, you know, was out of their minds.
They got clutch hits, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 1: This year.
Speaker 6: For the first month and a half, two months of
the season, it was the same thing for Cleveland, where
they continue to find ways where the stats say you
should be here or yeah, the stats that you should
be here, and they're playing at this level up here.
Speaker 1: That has not been the case in recent weeks.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: Cleveland has been struggling, and they've been struggling, you.
Speaker 6: Know what, eleven and twenty. It's not a short term
issue for the Guardians.
Speaker 1: They did have.
Speaker 6: Yesterday off and the manager said, hey, we're gonna we're
gonna reset. We played thirteen games in a row here
before the break. It's our chance to come back and
make some noise. And I agree with that assessment, but
it's not a team that I trust right now. And
Gavin Williams, you look at his day. The guy's been
pitching out of trouble all year.
Speaker 1: He's walked.
Speaker 6: Let me just double check that I read. In his
last fourteen starts, he's walked two or more batters thirteen times.
At one start were we only had one walk, and
he's walked consistently three, four or five for his last
three starts three or more walks four Williams and that
dates back. You know, had a six walkouting and a
four walk outing and a five walk outing in May.
Speaker 1: It's not anything new or unique. So when I'm looking
at this game and so where are we gonna go
with it?
Speaker 6: You know, part of me is I thought the initial
lean for Chicago that the line was just too low,
and it's not anymore.
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna lay it with the Cubs. So
we want to run line the Cubs.
Speaker 6: Well, the wind's blowing in today, I don't necessarily love
Boyd in this matchup. For as good as he's been,
I worry that Cleveland's gonna see him. I could certainly
make a case for the Cleveland team total under three
and a half, but I think the best bet here,
and I just doubble checked it and make it real.
It's real, you know, Gavid Williams more walks minus two
seventy I'll lay that juice here. When a pitcher who
consistently is he's not eating up innings, he says his
command hasn't been there, he's afraid to pitch the good hitters,
and he's walked two more batters again thirteen of his
last fourteen starts. I can lay two to seventy with
that against the Cubs team that's patient at the plate.
That to me is probably the best bet for this bargain.
And you might want to ladder that two or more
walks minus two seventy three or more walks plus one
point fifteen get a nice plus price on four or
more walks for Williams. And then like they're pulling him
every time he's walking batters, he's lasting into the sixth
inning four of his last five starts, and you know
he can go back to May and he's going five
plus innings in what the seven of his last nine.
So Williams over Walks is the one that makes the
most sense to me for this one. A little bit
of Cleveland team total under, maybe a little bit of
Cubs maybe, but Williams is the pitcher.
Speaker 1: That I want to fade in this one, and that
would be the way I would do it.
Speaker 2: You don't have to convince me on a player prop
or Teddy. I'm all aboard. I'm all aboard this one.
So yeah, I love that one. I love I love
a good Walks bar, especially that one and a half number. Yeah,
those are like if the walks are almost kind of
like NBA made threes whenever you get guys that are
like one and a half threes, like okay, yeah, I think,
yeah they can make two. And once it gets a
two and a half, you're like, hey, that's a lot.
That's a lot. But I love that one.
Speaker 6: Great player, Well, you gotta late, I mean to get
over one and have you're talking about minus two seventy.
I mean it's a significant lay, but I expected to cash,
you know, and when.
Speaker 1: I really do.
Speaker 6: So that's that's my best bet for Cubs Guardians tonight. Uh, Cleveland,
definitely a team I'm looking to continue to fade.
Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit of NFL. Can you give
us any tidbits? For example, Dan and I are talking
about the Cowboys seven and a half Wednesday. Do you
have anything on the Cowboys or any other little interesting
tidbits of information you've unlocked.
Speaker 3: There's at this stage, there's yeah, there's a million.
Speaker 6: And I got so much stuff the NFL in my
head right now. One tidbit. So the Cowboys are not
in my short list. I'm not looking at the Cowboys over.
I'm not looking at the Cowboys under. I think the
seven and a half is an appropriate line for Dallas.
And if I had to make a bed, look, there
are some books already at eight. And I'll tell you this,
here's a tidbit, all right, this is legitimate. I've been
doing this for twenty four. This is my twenty I
had twenty four previous NFL win reports.
Speaker 1: In the early days, there was some line.
Speaker 6: Variants the early two thousands. By twenty ten, the line
variants by this, you know, is slim. This year, as
I'm like, okay, what line can I release? This at
there's a huge amount of line variants in the market still,
and a part of the reason is that so many
books are putting.
Speaker 1: Up alternate lines.
Speaker 6: You see over four and a half, over five and
a half, over six and a half, and they are
adjusting the juice at the same book.
Speaker 1: You know, I can go here and got over four
and a half into this book under six and a half.
Speaker 6: So there are ladder plays you can make that haven't
really been available in this markets the same way in
recent in recent decades, there is variance in the markets
that you haven't seen in recent decades. And there are
a lot of books that are only posting half win numbers,
you know, nine and a half, ten and a half,
eight and a half. There are other books that are
very willing to post the nines and eights and tens.
And you're seeing great opportunities as a better because some
books won't let you push and other books will. The
push is very valuable when it comes to season win
totals in this better's opinion. So some of those well
the markets are ten and a half, but this book's
at ten, you know. Or the markets are nine and
a half, this book's at ten. The tens are worth
paying attention to in those instances. So in terms of
line variants, much more significant in twenty twenty five than
in any recent year that I put this report out.
Speaker 1: When it comes to Dallas, there's upside for Dallas.
Speaker 6: But at the same time, anytime you're talking about a
team that has a big portion of their salary cap
locked up in a handful of players like the Cowboys do,
that's a red flag.
Speaker 1: Hey, those guys get hurt, your season's ruined. Be your
death isn't there?
Speaker 6: And Dallas is multiple guys on these max deals.
Speaker 1: The roster makeup because of that leaves them with a
fair few holes, at least in this better opinion.
Speaker 2: All right, Teddy, it's five dollars Tuesday. Tell clients what
you have up at wager talk.
Speaker 6: I got a fight dollar best bet in MLB for today.
We won last Tuesday with our fight dollar best bet.
I expect to do it again tonight. I think it's
a rock solid winner. And obviously, the NFL Season Win
Report comes out tomorrow, and I got a promo code.
Speaker 1: For you guys.
Speaker 6: If you're interested NFL one hundred you get the season
Win Report. You can pay one ninety nine for it,
or you can get my NFL season. Get every play
from the first day of the preseason right through the
Super Bowl, including the NFL Win Report. You get the
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It comes out tomorrow noon Pacific three pm Eastern, and
that's one ninety nine, one oh three and fifty two
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been doing it, seventeen and four eighty one percent with
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So take advantage promo code NFL one.
Speaker 1: I know it's July. It's July today, right, Yes, I
know it's July. It's time. The seasons are right around
the corner.
Speaker 2: Get on board, all right, Teddy covers, everyone take advantage
of that promo code and big day when Teddy comes
out with his Season one report. Thank you so much, Teddy.
We're gonna bring in Dan. But real quick, a lot
of you have we'll say, asked about the steam room.
First off, guys, calm down. If there's no steam, there's
nothing to report. Jihanni comes on and he talks about
the games that are taking a lot of action and
significant line moves. In some days, there's just nothing to
really talk about, and so we're not going to force
anything like Giohnny's not gonna come on and give you
nonsensical numbers or things that you know don't really exist
or get you hyped up. Sometimes there are just days
when there's not a lot of excitement, and that's just
part of the business. I know somebody preferred to me
as a mean name. That's a great way to not
get your question answered. But if if there's no follow up,
then there's nothing to follow up on. So there's not
much that Gianny or I can do if the markets
are not giving us all the information. So and the
other thing about the Steam report is a lot of
times these numbers have already moved. You can't play them
like we're just telling you Hey, this is what the
big line move was, but the value might have already
been sucked out of it. So be careful when you're
paying attention to the Steam report where the money is going,
because a lot of this money and a lot of
this movement has taken place overnight. We're here to try
and make you guys better at what you do, but
we're not going to force anything, and I'm certainly not
gonna force Giohanny to make something when there's really nothing there.
So some days it's just not going to be the
most exciting steam report in the world. All right, let's
bring in Dan here. So sorry, Dan, I didn't know
I was gonna catch strays for Giohnny's to you, I
like a.
Speaker 4: Class I amuse you. Maybe that's maybe that's what Maybe
that's what they meant.
Speaker 2: Andy, Hey, listen, gotta be on your toes. Sometimes it's
like it's.
Speaker 4: Like, hey, we want Gianni to come on here and
lie to us and tell us that steam is going
when it's not gonna some Sometimes, like you said, Andy,
if it was an everyday thing, oh my god, there's
this huge bet, there's this I mean, sometimes the board
just falls the way that it does and maybe leading
up to game time there will be some heavy steam
and then maybe that's why you buy Gianni all access.
But he gets to your free here every single day.
But but Andy, uh, you'll entertain some people, you'll piss
off the other what like three third, you know, a
third of people, and then the final segment.
Speaker 1: Who cares about the final segment.
Speaker 2: That's the way that I always look. Yeah, yeah, absolutely,
So listen Monday mornings and football season, that's gonna be
your most important morning. That's when I mean Monday morning
shows during football season is going to be one of
the most important pieces of content. Is going to be
college for ball line movement, NFL line movement. That's when
we come here. But it's the first day of July.
There's like some men Bob games and that's about it.
Not a lot.
Speaker 4: There's no pleasing you. You want a ball on a
Blintz smoking a pancake.
Speaker 1: There's no pleasing some people.
Speaker 2: Anny, all right, well, let's please some people by talking
about the Dallas Cowboys. They're over underwin total is seven
and a half here. The Cowboys were seven to ten
last year. Dan four of their wins were two Giants wins.
Panthers and Browns. Yikes, yikes, yikes, yikes. PFF ranked their
offense twenty eighth last year in their defense twenty eighth.
Offseason moves. A lot of it was kind of keeping
some of the guys that they had from last year.
Defensive linemen were signed, some linebackers, they re signed some
of their secondary George Pickens, which Pickens joins them. Yet
they have the backfield of Javante Williams and Miles Sanders. Curious,
that'll be inter I'm a Javonte Williams fan. I'll be
interested to see if they can get somewhere out of him.
So I'll go over the schedule here real quick. They
have they have, They have a brutal stretch after their
bye week, but they start at your Eagles, then they
go Giants at Bears, Packers at Panthers, Commanders at Broncos, Cardinals.
Then they get their bye week in the middle at Raiders,
and here they go Eagles, Chiefs at Lions, Vikings, Chargers
at Commanders. Holy smokes, what a brutal, brutal stretch. And
then they do get the gift of at Giants in
the last week. So seven and a half I'm guessing
a lot of this is Dak gonna be healthy. Of course,
you can say that about everybody, but there's obviously quarterbacks
that we have a lot more questions about. What do
you break down on this Cowboys team? I know you
follow them a little bit more close to some other
teams just because they're in your division.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I'm sure that people will think I'll just
come on here and right away start talking smack on
Dallas because I'm an Eagles fan. No, you know, I
like betting on the Eagles just the same as I
like betting against them. I like that I follow the
NFC East so closely. I feel like I have a
good handle on these teams, and that kind of reflects
in my spread picks throughout the year. The thing is,
for me, an, you laid out the numbers there on
how absolutely abysmal that offense was, and because it was
so bad, they say, hey, let's take the mastermind behind
it and make them our head coach. I don't get
the Brian Schottenheimer thing, you know what I mean? Like,
I think there were a thousand different ways you could
do and if you're trying to reinvent the Cowboys which
I think is really what needed to happen. After you're
moving away from McCarthy and you've kind of, you know,
teetered in that mediocrity of just not being able to
break through in the playoffs, why would you not go
out and do something new. So that's my first knock
again against the Cowboys heading endo this year. I like
what they did in the offseason. I mean bringing in
George Pickens is never going to be a bad thing.
But one of the things that Pittsburgh learned with George
Pickens is even when he was the number one option,
he's not happy about his production. He's not happy about
his role in the offense. So now that he's going
to be standing in the shadow of Cedee Lamb, how
is that going to play out? From a personality perspective?
It could be a match made in heaven. But I
hate to simplify it down andy and boil it down
to well, it depends on the quarterback play. But in
the case of the Dallas Cowboys, it really does. I mean,
majority of their entire bank role is tied up in
Dak Prescott and Cede Lamb. So if that connection is great,
this team will be fine. The problem that worries me
is you hear the Dallas Cowboys and you see a
number seven and a half, and that just begs you
just by thinking in your mind, it's the Dallas Cowboys.
How do they not win eight games? This number is
begging you to take the over. I'm also not going
to disagree with the guy who wins with season win
reports each and every year that the Cowboys weren't even
all on his damn list. In Teddy covers what he
was talking about seven and a half, the number makes sense.
I probably lean towards the over just sight unseen, but
then you break down those stretches in the schedule Andy
that are completely just brutal. So you know, I don't
know how you could not be lukewarm at best on
the Cowboys heading into this season because things really haven't
changed that much. You added a couple different names. I
think I'm gonna be pumped up about Miles Sanders being
added to your running back by committee, I'm not, you know,
and their offensive line each year has come back down
to earth and.
Speaker 1: That was the lifeblood of the team.
Speaker 4: So the ever slightest lean simply because it's the Dallas
Cowboys and I think the Washington Commanders are gonna take
a step back this year, so maybe they pick up
a win there. I lean towards this over, but it's.
Speaker 1: Tepid at best. Andy, I hate this number.
Speaker 4: I think this is gonna be an impossible team to
handicap in their games this season, favored in six of them.
So if you're playing that game, how do you get
over seven and a half. If Dak Prescott plays up
to the level that we've seen him previously that he
wasn't playing it last year before his injury, this could
go over. But this isn't one you add to your card.
I think you crossed this one off the list.
Speaker 2: Personally, yeah, I'm gonna ever so slightly lean to the under,
just because I mean, you have two Giants games that
should be wins. At Raiders should be a win, and
then I just can't really pick, you know, easy wins.
I mean that stretch of Eagles Chiefs at Lions, Vikings
Chargers that's got winless or just one win out of it.
The Dak injury is always a thing their offensive line.
They lost Martin. This coaching move I don't understand in
the slightest and listen at Bears, Packers at Panthers, Commanders
at Broncos. That's not easy as well. I think wins
are gonna be really, really tough for the team. The
number seems about perfect. I will ever so slightly lean
to the under, but yeah, this is not going to
be uh, this is not going to be the the
the the huge play.
Speaker 6: Oh.
Speaker 2: I'm putting this up at four percent. Yeah, numbers, number
seems about right, but I will ever so slightly lean
to the under. But you lean over, I lean under.
I can't say it's a huge disagreement where we're.
Speaker 4: I mean again again, Andy, when you're talking about like
these also help you. How are you gonna bet this
team this year?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 4: And if you're looking at this Dallas Cowboys team being
favored in only six games, if you like this over,
you just take them on the money line and when
they're in the when they're a dog in the ten
other games, in the in the eleven other games, right.
Speaker 1: You know what I mean.
Speaker 4: There's there's way better ways to bet this than tying
up for it just to tell your buddies, Hey, I
told you they were gonna win eight games.
Speaker 1: That's the way that I kind of view it.
Speaker 2: All right, so we're gonna we're gonna slightly disagree, but
really we agree that this line is.
Speaker 4: We agree that this is gross. I don't want to
bet this Cowboys. I mean, it's just it's it's too
it's too gross. Even ten he said this wasn't even
on his long list. So yeah, just crossed this one off.
Speaker 2: All right, we'll leave in the comment section if you
if if you got a team that that we want
to go over, Bruce, Andy, can I get a birthday pick? Yeah,
go for that that first five team total on the
Angels over if you can't get the uh. If you
can't get the the uh, the first five, take a
look at the over. I think the I think the
Angels put up some runs today. I think they're gonna
do it today and tomorrow. So all right, you know
what we're gonna pass on trying to do a pick
the correct score. We need to sort out all the
winners from UH from from the last one. So give
us a day UH to to sort out everything. But
please leave us a comment. Just tell us who you
like tonight, UH. Tell us who you like on the
Cowboys if you like the over under in the comment
section after the show is over. We'll get back to
giving away more swag on Wednesday. Take advantage of five
dollars Tuesday. I've got a team total best bet that
is up in MLB. Every handicapper has a five dollars play.
So whether you pick one, whether you're picked five, whether
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hit the like button, subscribe to the channel. Good luck
on your plays, and we'll see everyone tomorrow. Take care,