Speaker 1: What is up, Fellasiko's I'm Dana Valley coming at you
without my co host Grant Hughes this time, but I'm
super excited to be joined by a first time guest. Mister.
Yosi Goslin of The Third Apron has absolutely been crushing
just all his coverage, but this all season. Specifically, the
graphics you put out of every team's cap situation helps
idiots like me keep track of everything in real time,
so we super appreciate those resources. Go check him out.
His links will be after this in the podcast and
YouTube descriptions where you can go follow him on all
the socials and subscribe to The Third Apron. Yosi, how
the heck are you doing?
Speaker 2: I'm doing all right, getting ready for Vegas. Be there
tomorrow for a whole week. Other than that, pretty good.
Speaker 1: How long do you try and last in Vegas for
Summer League? Are you someone who's there for like over
a week?
Speaker 2: I'm like Summer League aside, I live in La so
I've been to Vegas. I can't countless of times. Nowadays,
I don't like to do more than two nights. So yeah,
we'll see how this would be a new pr for me.
Speaker 1: I feel that in my bones, I don't know, Like
three nights in Vegas feels like the max for me.
If the people who go there for the entire summer league,
I don't I think they shave years off their life
would be my guess. If they're staying there the entire
two weeks or whatever it ends up being.
Speaker 2: I think you got to enjoy the extra curriculars there,
Like I don't really I don't like the gamble, don't
really care for the nightlife. So it's like just strictly business.
Speaker 1: All right, So you have about forty minutes here, so
as we get started, I wanted to This is the
question that's been just it's not bugging at me, but
the one that I thought the most about. Is NBA
free agency going to make a comeback at any point
in the sense of where we see bigger names change
teams more frequently or is and I'm just looking at
the Heat, the Whizzards, the Lakers, the Clippers seeming to
have these like twenty twenty six or more so twenty
twenty seven cap space plans. Is that just about prioritizing
flexibility in general for other stuff they could do, or
do you see free agency becoming at any point more
of what it used to be, like I guess a
half decade or so ago.
Speaker 2: Now, I think it'll make occasional comebacks. I just can't
say when. I think teams are eventually going to start
to push back on extending players all the time. Where
after COVID, the salary cap froze, so players can then
make as much money and an extension than free agency
for the time being, and now they change the rules
where you can get more in an extension. So on
one hand, you think, okay, well, now players are never
going to hit free agency if they could just secure
the money, now, why not do that? And that's been
the trend. But the flip side of that is that
eventually I think teams will start to get a little
more burned on these extensions because bunch are a risky
for the risk here for the team. When you're a player,
you're securing them money like some money. Now in the
end you they're usually more favorable to the player. I
think because the team has to make a bed years
in advance that there this player is going to maintain
a certain level of production in the future, where when
you get the free agency you're literally at the final
end of that player's You know you've made it through
the very end of that player's evaluation window where you
have a better chance of giving him a more favorable deal.
I think we're still seeing a lot of questionable contracts,
and that's putting in nicely being put out. Like Devin Booker,
I don't understand the rush to do it. I don't
have a problem with like him getting the max. It
just he has three years left on his contract. He
just started this contract that he's currently on. Why what
is the rush? What are you getting ahead of by
giving him max dollars three years in advance for his
age thirty two and thirty three season. Why not we
like two more years at least before you consider extending him.
See how he holds up. And then on the other side,
he got like Herb Jones, he just signed his extension.
I think there's some good arguments that he probably should have.
He probably left some money on the table, but still
like he signed this two years in advance. So maybe
Herb and his camp feel like, well, maybe the offense
isn't ever really gonna come around to the point where
he's gonna get anything close to like the mckill bridges
or out O Janinobi type money, or maybe he they
have an indication that cap space won't be available enough
for them for where a team might like spend a
lot more money. So he maybe he sacrificed some money,
but I don't know, I don't know how much. Like
I think there's a good case that he he secured
some money now, but like probably would have risked not
making too much more. So so yeah, back to your question,
I think teams just eventually need to realize that the
two things need to happen. One, that these extensions are
just not that great for them and that they should
try letting more players hit the open market to get
a better value. But then also I think things need
to align where potentially twenty twenty seven might be a
cap space year because Giannis could opt out. Jokic would
technically expire if he doesn't extend by then, so that
that also needs to happen. But we'll see if that
aligns for twenty twenty seven, if not, maybe another year.
Speaker 1: When you're talking about the extensions of like a Herb
Jones type player specifically, do you think that him and
his camp does it? Are they looking at what this
summer's market maybe was, and seeing how few teams have
had cap space and maybe how little actions happened in
free agency over the recent pass and saying, well, that's
why we want to lock in these longer term dollars now,
and like they do have the flexibility that player option
for him. But it seems like at one point I
felt like it was like kind of the stars that
were just signing these extensions because their capped at what
they could make anyway, and they could force trades. But
now it feels like it's becoming a little more commonplace
to extend the non stars. And I'm just wondering if
I've looked at Herb Jones's deal, was like, yeah, he
left money on the table, Like that's someone who in
free agency I would expect, just his archetype of player
teams would always be interested in two years down the line,
do you think that maybe that or even just the
the lower cap increase forecast where it went from ten
percent to now it's seven percent in twenty six twenty seven,
and I know a lot of people are now basing
a lot of what they're doing off that seven percent.
Does that change the way that players like maybe the
non stars are operating when it comes to their financial security.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's another factor that could be motivating players to
extend now. Like I said, if the earlier a player extends,
usually the more favorable for the player, because I like
just locking in money now without really having to show
if you're going to hold it up in like a
year for at least another.
Speaker 1: Year or two.
Speaker 2: With with HERB I maybe, yeah, could the cap space
now rising could play into it because in a sense,
if he gets you know, one, if the cap doesn't
go up and he kind of stagnates or no guarantee
that extension is still on the table. I think it
probably is. But then if the cap stagnates as well,
then there isn't there's no there's less of a chance
that there might even be caps like enough cap space
teams when by the time he's set to hit the
open markets. So I think they're looking at a lot
of things. But maybe also he and his camp have
an idea of like, hey, like you know, uh, maybe
you're you're not going to be you know, you're not
gonna be the kind of player who develops enough offensively
where you're gonna get like, oh, gen and Obi mhill
Bridges type money. Maybe you could get closer to Jada
McDaniel's money as a free agent, but that's not too
much more than what this extension is. So in this case,
like it's understandable to lock this up. Now.
Speaker 1: Do you look at any of the teams that I
think have been mentioned the most, or maybe there's one
that you've just seen their cap sheet and are kind
of monitoring as, Oh, they're kind of really banking on
year X free agency class doing something for them. Or
is it like when you're talking about the Lakers of
the Clippers, is it more about that flexibility or maybe
that you know, you look at their timeline the Clippers,
it's just everybody's getting older. That's a good time for
maybe a reset. Is there any team that kind of
stands out as they seem to be investing a lot
in like free agency becoming a thing again, or that
cap flexibility maybe getting them more than we've seen in
years past.
Speaker 2: I haven't looked too deeply, but definitely Lakers and Clippers
are trying to position themselves for cap space. It seems
like the Clippers, definitely for next year they're going to
have max cap space next year only like Luca and
the Aaron Fox if they don't extend, would probably be
the top free agents. Maybe Trey Young. We'll see who
becomes available. The Lakers twenty twenty seven sounds like they're
trying to get Yannis. So it just we haven't seen
this kind of alignment since twenty nineteen for particular stars,
and a lot of it depends on these players not
signing any extensions ahead of time, which would which hasn't
been the trend. So we'll and ultimately I think these
teams could only get these stars with like the player
kind of like facilitating stuff now, where Daron Fox essentially
let the Kinks know, Hey, I'm not extending and if
I'm a free agent in twenty twenty six, I'm going
to sign with the Spurs trade me there Now. I
think I feel like nowadays some of that might be
necessary because teams ideally like would like to get ahead
of their player hitting free agency and get something for
him if he's gonna leap.
Speaker 1: Does it also have more to do bad as I'm
listing those teams like three of them Miami, and they
did eat into their projected cap space a little bit
by giving Daveiell Mitchell to guaranteed years. But Miami Los
Angeles is this still more of like a market thing
where it's like, oh, you're not going to see like
they're not on the horizon. But Washington like they're not
going into this thinking, oh, like maybe we could poach
Lebron James next summer now that he's going to be
a free agent. So there's a lot of it's still
just these are the teams that if anyone's gonna benefit
from like having this flexibility, it's going to be these
types of markets that can bank on those types of transactions.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Lakers, Clippers, Heat historically have benefited from having uh
from from like Chase, They've they've successfully chased stars with
cap space, where yeah, teams like the Wizards, there's just
their books are just lining up. I don't think they
really care about having cap space next year. If anything,
then might end up doing trades where like they have
big expirings like Middleton McCollum, smart, I wouldn't be surprised
if they traded them for players that are going to
be under contract next year, and I think they'll probably
still have cap space. But I think it's just more
a coincidence that they have all these expiring contracts. I
think they'll be they'll try to be proactive now to
get as much value, as much picks as they can
between now and through next reagency.
Speaker 1: Maybe this is only a question that I have and
we've talked about in this podcast a little bit. Do
we read anything into the situation with Damian Lillard where
he gets waved in stretch? I know Joannis is a
special case, but now we're seeing potentially something similar with
Bradby Beal if he gets a buy out and then
gets waved in stretch. Could that become more of a
trend where teams are more comfortable just having these massive
amounts of dead cap hits on their books. Or is
this sort of going to be a relic of We're
at the beginning of this era of aprons and teams
are now recalibraing in the face of that, and they'll
you know, reorient their books for the longer term more
cleanly after this.
Speaker 2: I think it's mostly a result of, like for the Suns,
for example, just bad management and trading all their draft picks,
not having anything left to trade, already, having too much money,
too many bad contracts, not be not being able to
move off those. So if they do it with Beal,
that's mostly a result. Same thing with the Bucks, I think.
I don't think they've a lot. They've been very leverage,
trading almost all their pick throughout the years. They've had
a lot of bad money. Now like their books got cleaner,
and then this opportunity for Miles Turner came along, which
I don't think he's good enough it's worth doing this,
but they did it anyway. So I think it's mostly
a result of a combination of not having any assets
to trade and having a lot of bad money. So
when I look around the league, like, well, who's a
team that could potentially be in this situation next? Maybe
the Sixers. They have Embiid with four years left on
his contract, Paul George for three years left on his contract.
They're making max money, Like odds are one of these
guys are just not gonna work out. At least one
of these guys are not gonna work out. So what
if in a year from now they missed the playoffs again,
they need to they decide it's over. You're probably not
gonna get the flexibility by trading both those guys, you
might have to consider stretching one of those guys. So,
now that we're seeing the Bucks and the potentially the
Suns test the fullest limits of the stretch provision, which
has never been done quite at this level, maybe we'll
start well, we'll probably start to see more teams do it.
But they have to have that those bad, those deadly combinations.
Speaker 1: As someone who's so into the weeds from a cat perspective,
when you look at the Yanna situation, where it seems
similar to they're not as well positioned as Oklahoma City
with Kevin Durant. But okay, see followed his tenure until
the end. They said, until the wheels fall off, Like
if he leaves, he leaves. Do you like, I understand
why the Bucks are going that route, and I've said,
just given their assets right now, I can't imagine trading
Giannis unless he pushes for it, because otherwise, what's the
point where do you land on that whole type of
discussion knowing, Okay, now they've done this to get Miles Turner.
When you look at just they don't control their own
first and till twenty thirty one, just from that front
office perspective, how do you view that type of It
feels like they're delaying me inevitable situation.
Speaker 2: Basically, it's tough because you can't just trade gi Honest.
We've seen what happened when the MAVs, for example, traded
their franchise player. Now, I do think it's a little
different because there was no warning, like you didn't there
was no rumors that Luca might be available. MAVs fans
didn't have time to even like mentally divorce, if that
makes sense, where like Bucks fans have been going through
this for so long that if Jannis finally requested a trade,
like they'd understand there wouldn't be some sudden rug pool.
But yeah, you still need to you know, you still
for like the sake of just future moves, having goodwill
with the stars, showing other stars how how you treat
them to attract potentially more in the future. Yeah, you
can't just trade you, honest. I'd be very curious to
know like what exactly ownership values, because for them to
approve this stretch and then sign Miles Turner feels like
they value keeping Yannis for as long as possible and
they don't necessarily care too much about how the highest like,
what are the highest end outcomes? Maybe they you know,
in their view, this is a championship contender. Well I disagree,
So that's what it seems like they ultimately, if you
as long as the honest wants to be there, they're
gonna write it out. Maybe there's people in management who
deep down would just already want to trade the honest
and get as much value as possible before it's too late.
But it's Yeah, it's a very delicate situation. But I
do think if ultimately they wanted to move on, they
could communicate that in a way that would be fine
and not upset ruffle any feathers.
Speaker 1: What have you made of how the aprons being intact
have affected just the way that teams transact. I've seen
a lot of X players have been hurt by this,
whether it's role players, mid end players, and a bench players.
I've seen. It does feel like it's made the trade
market wonky because everyone's trying to figure out, like, well,
how do we not take back more money than we
send out? Because if we're trying to be good, we
don't want to be hard tapped necessarily at the first apron.
Do you see like of the main criticisms that are
out there. Is there one that you think is legitimate,
or is there fallacies out there that we need to
sort of course correct on, or is there even anything
flying under the radar in terms of how the way
that the CBA is set up has impacted the way
that teams are transacting now, there is.
Speaker 2: Definitely a lot there's a lot more restrictions now. But
I think the term second apron just become this buzzword
where people just like to say it without really fully
understanding what it means. Where being above the second apron
isn't necessarily something that it's penalties alone is going to
cripple a team. It's more so the maybe like the
new tax system which no one ever wants to talk
about that now it's even more expensive the deeper you go.
So technically, if you are in the second apron, that
means you're really deep in the tax which means you've
hit a bunch of multipliers with your tax payments. And
that's like something that might be potentially getting teams who
used to spend so much money, like the Clippers nets Warriors,
maybe thinking maybe having second thoughts about how deep they
want to go but they mostly just add restrictions to
how you're building the team. So I think with these
all these restrictions being implemented, where are seeing teams kind
of resetting their books, taking a step back, but then
eventually being a position to spend a lot of money
for a certain amount of time, like the thunder about
to they're gonna. I think they'll continue with this most
of this team for like the end of the decade.
I think their position to do that ownership showing a
willingness to spend. They have all the draft ass enough
draft picks to start replacing players at the bottom, Like
if you if they want us try to avoid the
second Apron one of these years, you're not gonna. They're
not gonna. It's not gonna be by trading their top
three guys. That's gonna gonna start the bottom. They're gonna
start with like Wiggins and Joe. Maybe they draft their
replacements eventually got to pay case on Wallace, Okay, we'll
trade Alex Crusso, so they've got other ways to balance
all this. I think a lot of what we're saying
with some players not getting as much money as they
maybe deserve. I just think this is mostly a result
of bad decisions from teams in the past five years,
like too many extensions, too many players like, and then
too many like undeserving max extensions, guys like Zach Lavine
Bradley be I think that these guys eating up a
bunch of a team's cap is probably taking away money
over these past few years from certain from certain players.
I think there's also there's another there's a bunch of
things like but I think it's mostly from just decisions
that have already been made that's leading up to this now,
like you know. And then there's like market forces that
are not exactly under the NBA's control. Uh, the salary
cap only went up three percent last year. That's gonna
impact the market, but it'll impact players more so when
their teams have been on a spending spree just extending players,
signing certain players to max is that probably don't deserve it,
and the and then what else. There's one other thing then,
like you know, guards, for example, the most saturated, oversaturated position.
Most teams are set at guard. I think that's what's
playing into guys like Norman Powell, that he'd be able
to get him for just Kyle Anderson and Kevin Love.
The Clippers had to trade a second round pick with
Powell to get John Collins. The Jazz had to trade
con Sexton with the second round pick to get use
of Nurkic.
Speaker 1: So the sc.
Speaker 2: Positional scarcity, that's another thing, but it's mostly impacting guards
right now, and there's like a pretty decent amount of
NBA talent level talented guards who are available right now
will probably just get the minimum.
Speaker 1: My favorite, because you mentioned the Colin Sexton trade, my
favorite NBA conspiracy theory that I've now heard a bunch
is that the Jazz made that trade with the Hornets
to prevent them from trading down so that Utah could
still get Ace Bailey because Washington would have wanted to
trade up to get him. I hope that's true because
it feels like a very well thought out conspiracy.
Speaker 2: So I think wasn't that after the draft?
Speaker 1: They are, well, it could have been in place. I'm
sure teams, I know they never talk about deals that
get push through afterwards, but do you think that we've
already kind of seen the limit of how long teams
will spend time in the second apron just because even
throw the tax penalties out the window. Just the idea
of like your draft pick getting frozen and then the
penalties that but like get getting moved to the end
of the round. After that, I thought the Celtics were
going to be sort of our test for well, how
long are teams willing to go into the second apron
and stay there? But then now they get out of it.
I don't know if they would have stayed in it
because of the Tatum injury. It's out Brad Stevens made
a team like they wouldn't have. But do you think
we've already kind of seen the limits of how long
teams would be willing to spend there? Or is that
is there another team you look at and say, well,
maybe they'll be the limit or it is just we
don't know yet.
Speaker 2: I think it's too early to tell. But based on
how the those drift frozen draft pick things work, it's
it's basically there's two things that can influence that, the
frozen draft pick versus and then eventually once you're in
the second apron long enough, then you get the first
round pick dropping to the end of the first round.
But then also there's entering the repeater tax, where once
you're in the repeater tax, and three of your previous
four seasons you pay the higher rates. So those kind
of coincide because Yeah, basically I believe also when you're
in the repeater tax for three and four seasons, then
the first pick that got frozen, that eventually drops to
the end of the first round. So there's a way
to time how you'd go about the second apron where
you kind of like the thunder. I think they're gonna
so they'll be under the tax this year right now,
based on how things are looking, they're projected to be
over the second apron for twenty six to twenty seven,
but they could figure out a way to get below it.
There's a lot of Yesterday when the extensions were announced
for Chad and Jalen, there were a lot of discussion
and my mentions on how they people think the Thunder
are gonna go about getting below it. Like a lot
of people think they'll just let Isaiah Hardenstein go, a
lot of people think they might let lou Dort go.
I don't necessarily see it quite that I could. I
would guess they start even further at the bottom because
if the thunder repeat again, I think they're gonna want
to keep Doordan Hardenstein. Maybe you trade Caruso because then
you gotta, like I mentioned earlier, Cason Wallace, it's time
to pay him. Maybe you trade Wiggins and Jalen William
j will By then I'm sorry enough Joe and Wiggins
by then, so then you and maybe you've drafted their replacements,
like maybe aj mitchell is. He might even be ready
to take over for Joe's role this year. Honestly, that
could make trading so uh yeah, I think they'll try
to stay below sake in Apron one more year, and
then after that maybe you just because then Asga's extension
will kick in, there's not gonna be any avoiding the
second Apron. So twenty seven and twenty twenty nine, I
would guess they just spend as much as possible to
get over the second Apron. After that, Okay, maybe they
consider taking a step back, resetting their books a bit.
But keep in mind, the thunder have all the draft picks.
There's the case that they're immune to those draft pick penalties.
What's a first round pick in twenty thirty six dropping
to the end of the first round. How much does
that hurt them when they still have at least two
draft picks in every single draft. So that's the thing
the Thunder might be like very uniquely position to not
to just blow over the second apron for as long
as they want.
Speaker 1: That's where Sam Presty's tendency to trade those picks like
for more distant picks and continuing maybe making that trend
to where it says you're mentioning like if a pick
gets frozen out in twenty thirty six, like they just
might have a way to have acquired a pick in
that draft already that has higher value than their own pick.
And so that's where what they've done, it's not just
accumulating the assets, but their ability to kind of maintain
the flexibility of turning them into different kinds of assets
where like getting creative about like they actually traded away
a first round pick to get what could be a
higher value swap. That might be why they're set up
to And so I liked that you because I saw
a lot of oh, this is like a one or
two year thing for them, and then they're gonna have
to blow it up. And I'll never rule anything out
because the NBA, like when the NBA windows are just
fleeting now, even when you think they're not, Like they're
just fleeting for some reason. But they more so than
any of their team. It's like, I don't know, like
the next three or four years, like this just might
be a like their core just might be already in place,
and not only they prepare to pay for it, but
they're built to kind of weather any of the at
least like the functional penalties. We could talk. Whether their
ownership wants to pay deep into the tax is a
different story, but they're definitely built to kind of navigate
all those transactional and functional limitations that come with being
in the second apron.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that secondary draft pick market, Yeah, they're always
trying to get the best value picks, like project what
draft picks from other teams they think could be something
that hits, because they've done really well getting draft picks.
A day, they had a pick from the Heat that
was almost the lottery pick. In next year, what do
they have a Sixers pick? Maybe that's like middle of
the first round. So every year they just have like
a pretty nice pick on their hands and maybe like
for example, they have a Nuggets pick in twenty twenty seven,
I believe Yeah.
Speaker 1: They have one of theirs in twenty twenty nine too.
The Nuggets, I feel like you shave them picks like candy.
Speaker 2: So maybe now you're thinking, well, maybe we can figure
out a way to start doing something with those, maybe
get different picks because the Nuggets, they he went ahead
and Swapporter Junior for Cam Johnson, which saves a lot
of money, and that can buy a couple more years
because that can let them have a deeper team. So
when you factor in things like that, they're always going
to be then are always gonna be proactive, trying to
not just have as many picks as possible, but try
to have the best, most valuable picks they possibly could.
Speaker 1: This could somewhat apply to the Thunder moving forward, but
you also kind of mentioned this before. Do you think that,
especially when you were mentioning some of these holdover deals
like Zach Lavine's contract, I think is the one that
people point towards the most. Do you see a trend
where the bar forgetting a max contract, whether it's coming
off your rookie deal or you know, I was looking
at Jaron Jackson Junior as kind of the case study
this year is I'll reinterested to see if he in
the renegotiating extent, if he gets you know, add or
near the max of what he could have gotten in
free agency. He basically did. So I'm kind of looking
at the Trey Young extension eligibility to where it's do
they not sign him to one? Does he get less
than the max? But do you see like maybe in
another world or if years down the line, Chet Holmes
Grin wouldn't have been a no brainer max extension candidate,
But just knowing what the second apron, and again for me,
it's those tax penalties you mentioned, is like, yeah, those
are huge for ownership, but for me, it's more about
the functional limitations that comes with being in the second
apron for so long. Do you think we reach a
point or are we getting there where the bar to
get a MAX contract is just higher than it is
right now?
Speaker 2: So I think now with those restrictions, it's going to
force teams to negotiate a little more. I don't think
anybody really expects tre Young to get a full max contract,
maybe just something a little bit less. I don't know
exactly what that might entail, but yeah, I think they're
going to maybe instead of giving him like sixty million
a year, maybe try to get him at like fifth
maybe it's fifty million a year. So and then with
with Jaren, they have the cap space right now where
they could renegotiate him where they're gonna give him less.
It's not like a full max deal. What they're gonna
probably do is get his first two years at the
max and then they all paid it forward where the
last three years are like a little bit below the max.
Gives them a little bit more flexibility. That's what the
Jazz did with market in last year. So yeah, I
think I think it's a little different with rookie extensions,
where with guys like Chad and Jalen Williams, there are
people who think that's a lot of money for those guys,
but like the question is if those guys hit free
agency or they're gonna get max offer sheets. Yeah, so
that's why that though, Okay, that's why, Okay, he gave
him max contracts now. But also it's all about the
percentage of the cap where they're only making twenty five
percent of the cap. They might make a little more
if to get all NBA stuff like that, but even
still like twenty five percent of the cap is like,
when you think about it in terms of percentages, that's
really not that much for a guy. For for those guys,
like it's possible that they're worth more when you if
they were able to get more. Once you get like
above thirty percent, closer to thirty five, that's where it
starts to get a lot more burdens them for the team,
where if the contract doesn't work then it could really
burn the team. Like Bradley Beal making thirty five percent
the cap, Zach Lavine making thirty five percent of the cap,
Devin Booker may potentially in a couple of years still
making thirty five percent of the cap. We'll see if
he's still a thirty five percent player by then. So yeah,
I just think as far as like the higher ends
of the once you get like past thirty percent, teams
are definitely going to start pushing back on that.
Speaker 1: I used to dismiss this take as mostly fans speak,
but now I've seen just a lot of people I
respect kind of throw it out there as hypothetical. Do
you think the money when we look at things in
terms of percentage of the salary cap now, which I
think is smart, but when you see the raw dollar
amount like they're getting, like just on paper, they look
so ridiculous. Do you think we have a reach a
point where you're seeing like it's not someone who's in
their age forty season taking less than they could get,
but where we see someone who's maybe closer inside of
their prime to either take less to help a team,
like noticeably less to help a team sustain just because
it is still so much money, or maybe it's af
Fords like a different type of powerhouse if they're looking
to leave, or do you think that this is always
going to be just sort of money is kind of
the barometer for okay, like this is where I am
in the place of this league, and so we'll always
be a priority by and large to get as much
as possible.
Speaker 2: I think we are staying. We are seeing some cases,
not too many, where the where teams are willing players
are willing to take a little less than what they
probably could. We just saw it last year with Jalen Brunson,
where him taking four for one sixty was considered a
huge underpay. If he hit free agency this summer, he'd
get the max for sure, like the Knicks would have
had to give it him. So I think the money,
even though even though like the Caps, the percentages of
the maxes are still the same, the money still is
the row dollars is growing up to a point where
some players are willing to that were a lot of
players max extensions amounts are like high enough that it's
like just it's it's good enough. It's it's it's high
enough for them to accept it. It's still a lot
of still a lot of money these players are making.
Speaker 1: This is also maybe only a question that I have.
How do you think front offices view when it comes
to like the acquisition of distant draft picks to where okay,
the Nuggets sending out the twenty thirty two first rounder
to get off of Michael Porter Junior's money and bring
in Cam Johnson. I always look at those as crown jewels,
especially when it seems like a team is maxed out
of their assets, and by that point, Akole Yoakhich can
be like age thirty seven or whatever it is up.
But I think you could also make the argument that
a lot of these front office executives will look at
that pick and say, well, I'm not going to be
the one either trading it or making it. And so
is there like a discrepancy between how those like ultra
distant first round picks are are valued around the league?
Do you think?
Speaker 2: I feel like for the most part, they're kind of
just the values just in the time, so in ways
they're all valued the same. Like I don't see how
you can really measure how, I how a Nuggets twenty
thirty two pick is any different from Michael Hornet's twenty
thirty two pick right now, like other than the Jokic
having Yokic. But for the most part, when you're comparing
like any team with each other, you really can't project
like what what it is. You could only so all
you could do is get the pick, and you have
so much time to figure out what to do with it,
keep it, trade it for something else. So I think
we've just seen team tas for the most part, they've
they've done okay. Where when you're a team like yeah,
like Denver Milwaukee, who has a generational player who's going
to be playing for a long time, when you're trading
picks very far out, as long as you have that player,
then by then then those picks, then you know you
should be in a decent position to not have the
worst case scenario where when you're like Brooklyn in twenty thirteen,
they traded three first round picks for two very aging vets,
and then the Suns I think did an equally destructive
trade trading for Kevin Durant that age thirty five.
Speaker 1: It was, and then one of the worst trade negotiations
I've ever seen from a team where they were the
only team he wanted to go to, and they just
kept get like it harkened back to what the Knicks
did with Mellow. It felt like just kept giving Brooklyn stuff.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so and then the Sun's followed that up by
trading everything else they had for Beal on a really
bad contract. So we've seen so then like so we're
seeing teams like the Wolves, the Calves that have done
their trades for go Baron Mitchell, those it looks like
those have already paid off for them, and like just
seeing where things are because they have bad words, because
the Calves have all their young talent, Like it's there's
not going to be any like worst case scenario at
the level of the Nets or or the Suns. We'll
see what happens with the Magic, but same thing it's
like they have two young all star level guys. They
have a really nice young team. So I just feel like,
for the most part, as long as you do have
a young cornerstone that you could look to by the
end of that last pick obligation, you it'll work out.
Though it does limit how much you can do to
build the team going forward. We've seen like all these
teams that I just mentioned. Once you make that trade,
that's like you're kind of out of moves to make.
So that's like the bigger thing you're losing, Like the Knicks,
not too much else they could do now, Like, yeah,
they have a great team right now, they have a
championship contender, but they literally don't have any first round
picks the trade. Like all they could do is, you know,
get some really good free agent signings and you know,
see what happens. Maybe they have to trade some of
their guys later, but without those picks, it's very hard
to make any deal.
Speaker 1: A couple quick ones for you, since we only have
you for a few more minutes. Do you look at
any teams around the league right now and say, like, okay,
like their business like on a pretty like a maybe
a massive scale unless it is a massive scale. But
you look at them and say, like, no, they got
some stuff to still figure out for this offseason specifically.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a bunch the Nets. Obviously they still have
like up to thirty million in app space something like that.
They could get up to them amount. So are they
gonna They've been able to get to first round picks
with their cap space by taking on Terrence Man and
taking on Michael Born Junior for Cam Johnson. Is there
something else they can do the Raptors there. I think
they're gonna trade r J.
Speaker 1: Barrett.
Speaker 2: They need to save some money. That that's just not
a that that fit doesn't make sense. They try to
trade them for Ingram at the trade deadline, but the
Pelicans didn't want him.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: Is there a trade where they can say, you know,
because right now they're over the tax and first apron,
is there a trade that get them below it and
maybe get them like a point guard or a backup center.
The Kings are probably gonna do something, whether that's kaminga.
Speaker 1: Terrify their fans. The Kings are gonna do something. Yeah,
it's a red flag.
Speaker 2: Oh, they're gonna do something. I think the Sons were
just waiting to see if they end up stretching and
if they end up doing anything with that added flexibility,
because then they're they're blow of the aprons. They could
use the mid level if they want, the Sixers, anyone
who's with a restricted free agent, the Sixers, Bulls, Warriors, Warriors.
I are they going to find a suitable sign trade
for Kaminga to fill up their roster? They have They
have done nothing yet. How much of their flexibilities they
want to use. My feeling is they're going to try
to just use the tax mid level on Horford, try
to so they can go above the first apron. Try
to get a guy like Melton on the minimum so
they can try to spend us more money to fill
up the roster. What is Memphis gonna do to create
the cap space needed to officially renegotiate your in Jackson Junior?
Based on Scham's reporting, sounds like something will happen with
Cole Anthony, whether that's a trade or a buyout or something.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that just kind of that happened at the very
early on in the process, and it's just like we
haven't heard anything about it since.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they haven't done anything, so we're still waiting to
see what, you know, do the Clippers end up getting
Beal and Chris Paul? That seems like that feels like
that's going to happen. And I don't think this is
probably not Probably nothing will come out of this. But
is there something to the Lebron situation? Is that something
where it looks like Lebron's not going to be a
Laker after this year? Potentially? Maybe is there an early
exit perhaps between these two teams?
Speaker 1: You know, that might?
Speaker 2: That's the other thing?
Speaker 1: Are there any other like emerging trends or questions that
you're monitoring or when you're doing podcasts like these that
you wish people would ask you and that they don't
that you're just kind of clocking moving forward about the
way the NBA kind of transacts now.
Speaker 2: I mean, I think we mentioned them, whether that's potentially
more teams doing stretches and holding teams holding a harder
line on thirty percent plus max extensions. I feel like
we're starting this. I think we've discussed a good amount
of them.
Speaker 1: Josie, this was great. Are you just able to tell
our listeners, subscribers, watchers where they can find you and
all the great work that you do.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got my podcast Third Aprin, which you can
find on YouTube anywhere where you get your podcasts, and
the newsletter with the same name on substack a lot
of deeper salary cap analysis. You can see all my
salary cap information for each team on caps sheets dot
com and make sure you are subpribed to me on
Twitter and blue Sky on my name have instant salary
cap analysis as soon as any transaction happens.
Speaker 1: I just want to echo the work you do is
great for everyone listening. The links will be when I
put this out. It'll be in the podcast and YouTube
descriptions to where you can find and support him. And
thank you so much for giving me a ton of
your time during one of the busiest times of the
year before you I really appreciate it. And rest the
short I'll probably be pestering you again in the future.
Speaker 2: You're welcome. Damn thanks for having me on