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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to another episode of the Chicks on the Right

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<v Speaker 1>podcast where we talk to our friend and sponsor of

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<v Speaker 1>the show, Zach Abraham from Bulwark Capital Management. And there's

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<v Speaker 1>always chitter chatter in the market from experts that a

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<v Speaker 1>recession is coming, or a recession isn't coming or whatever.

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<v Speaker 1>The how the economy is doing is always up a

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<v Speaker 1>topic of debate, and right now there are grumblings about

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<v Speaker 1>a potential recession. And apparently there are signs that don't

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<v Speaker 1>have anything to do with actual economic indicators that do

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<v Speaker 1>indicate recessions that we are just learning about. This is

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<v Speaker 1>according to an article at NPR. So some of the

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<v Speaker 1>most famous unofficial indicators include maybe you've heard of this,

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<v Speaker 1>the hemline index, never heard? Have you heard of this?

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<v Speaker 2>I have you have? Really isn't a thing.

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<v Speaker 1>So apparently shorter skirts equals good economy, Longer skirts equals

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<v Speaker 1>a down term.

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<v Speaker 2>Why I don't get that. I don't know. It actually

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<v Speaker 2>goes another way.

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<v Speaker 3>You can look at you can look at suit sales.

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<v Speaker 3>So in Boom Times the Cell, the sale of men's

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<v Speaker 3>suits go down. In recessions, they start going back up.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh my gosh.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's a lot of weird It's one of the

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<v Speaker 3>thought fascinating things about economics and markets, and it's one

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<v Speaker 3>of the reasons I fell in love with them. There's

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<v Speaker 3>there's so much human behavior involved and people don't really

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<v Speaker 3>realize that psychology. Yeah, yeah, so so think of like,

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<v Speaker 3>so an easy way to think about it is like

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<v Speaker 3>the Roaring twenties, right, and the and the what do

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<v Speaker 3>they they what I'm blanking out the flappers?

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<v Speaker 2>Flappers?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah right, okay, remember that was like those skirts were

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<v Speaker 3>short back then, and that was out there, right.

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<v Speaker 2>It was an economic boom.

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<v Speaker 3>Time things are good, people are feeling loose, right, They've

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<v Speaker 3>got extra money, they're drinking more, they're partying, right, all

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<v Speaker 3>that kind of stuff, and so when bad times hit,

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<v Speaker 3>you're not as worried about where you're going on a

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<v Speaker 3>Friday night. You're worried about you know what I mean. So, yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>it's it's it's a really fascinating thing.

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<v Speaker 2>So interesting. The first four I had.

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<v Speaker 3>Had into that was seeing men's suit sales up against

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<v Speaker 3>the economy, and I remember just going that is wild.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, they say it's true about men's underwear sales also,

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<v Speaker 1>because if underwear sales drop, apparently, then that means people

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<v Speaker 1>are cutting back on even their basic essentials, which that

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<v Speaker 1>makes sense to me. That the short skirts and the

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<v Speaker 1>long skirts, that's a little bit more difficult to wrap

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<v Speaker 1>my head around. But the you know, giving up essentials

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<v Speaker 1>and buying less essentials, that makes sense to me. And

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<v Speaker 1>apparently frozen pizza sales, that's.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what was really interesting to me.

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<v Speaker 1>Too, that because yeah, comfort food spikes. When budgets are tighter,

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<v Speaker 1>you reach for the comfort food more and probably just

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<v Speaker 1>junk food because it's cheaper, right right.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, that the minu you said that, I thought, you

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<v Speaker 3>know what, that's a great one because you're doing that

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<v Speaker 3>instead of ordering, yeah, instead of ordering a pizza totally

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<v Speaker 3>like and how many fans. That's probably actually a very

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<v Speaker 3>good indicator. I'm actually gonna have one of Miami think

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<v Speaker 3>about it.

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<v Speaker 1>Think about all the times that you're like, Mom, I

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<v Speaker 1>want McDonald's.

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<v Speaker 2>She's like, we have McDonald's at home. Yep, we really don't. Ever,

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<v Speaker 2>we really don't have.

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<v Speaker 1>We have your you're lame burger that you're going to.

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<v Speaker 2>Like try to put special sauce on hold on in

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<v Speaker 2>my house.

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<v Speaker 3>My kids are like, oh, it's not the same, And

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<v Speaker 3>I'm like, dude, we've got woggy ground beef for.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh my god.

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<v Speaker 3>And I'm sitting there just know McDonald's. I'm like, your

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<v Speaker 3>don right McDonald's. Man, this isn't going to kill you,

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<v Speaker 3>right No? So yeah, no, that that's legit though there's

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<v Speaker 3>it's just it's member markets's made up of people.

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<v Speaker 1>And so what are the like the actual ones that

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<v Speaker 1>are actually legit economic indicators?

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<v Speaker 2>Like what do you look for in your world?

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<v Speaker 1>What do you what do you see that you're like,

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<v Speaker 1>uh oh, I don't like that sign.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's changed a lot.

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<v Speaker 3>Prior to the last ten years, well actually prior to

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<v Speaker 3>last five years, I would have told you that the

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<v Speaker 3>most dependable metric is the yield curve, which means what

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<v Speaker 3>is the so like, if we're looking at a two

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<v Speaker 3>year US government treasury and a thirty year US government treasury,

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<v Speaker 3>what is the space between them? Where's the ten you're at?

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<v Speaker 3>Where's all these things at? And in the past, whenever

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<v Speaker 3>you'd see the yield curve go flat, which means you'd

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<v Speaker 3>have a thirty year trading paying a very similar amount

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<v Speaker 3>of interest to like a two year treasury. That was

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<v Speaker 3>a precursor and then the last stage right before you

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<v Speaker 3>entered recession, you'd actually invert, so you'd have two year

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<v Speaker 3>yield would be higher than a thirty year. It is

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<v Speaker 3>actually the two in the ten we're the most. The

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<v Speaker 3>two in the ten year were for the most. But

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<v Speaker 3>literally those indicators had predicted every single recession in the

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<v Speaker 3>history of our economy with perfect record. Right, it didn't

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<v Speaker 3>this last time and is the first time it broke.

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<v Speaker 3>But it makes all the sense in the world because

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<v Speaker 3>what did we start after two thousand and eight. Two

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<v Speaker 3>thousand and nine we started doing quantitative easing, which is

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<v Speaker 3>effectively the FED controlling the yield curve.

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<v Speaker 2>So one of the things that we.

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<v Speaker 3>Were worried about is we were like, we don't know

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<v Speaker 3>if we can trust this indicator anymore, because this indicator

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<v Speaker 3>used to tell us exactly what investors wanted. And one

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<v Speaker 3>of our big believers of the reason the yield curve

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<v Speaker 3>would invert is because when you go into recessions, interest

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<v Speaker 3>rates go down and bonds go up in value. Well

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<v Speaker 3>the longer the duration of your bond, So if interest

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<v Speaker 3>rates go down, the value of your thirty year bond

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<v Speaker 3>is going to go up a lot more than the

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<v Speaker 3>value of your five year bond.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay. So my thought was.

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<v Speaker 3>Always the reason you see the yield curve invert is

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<v Speaker 3>because smart money is selling stocks and buying long dated bonds, right,

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<v Speaker 3>and so that's kind of telling you the smart money's

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<v Speaker 3>getting out of the game.

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<v Speaker 2>Look at the yield on the thirty year it's dropping.

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<v Speaker 3>That means people are buying it, and that means that

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<v Speaker 3>they're going to ride this thing out, wait till stocks

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<v Speaker 3>get knocked down, and then step back in there and.

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<v Speaker 2>Buy them cheaper. So are because they Well, no, because

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<v Speaker 2>I don't.

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<v Speaker 3>Because that indicator, because I believe because of what the

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<v Speaker 3>FED had done for the last fifteen years, it broke.

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<v Speaker 3>It doesn't tell us anything. But what I will say

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<v Speaker 3>is that I have never seen and I'm not trying

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<v Speaker 3>to alarm anybody, but unless something changes drastically and extraordinarily fast,

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<v Speaker 3>you're looking at a one hundred percent certainty of a

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<v Speaker 3>global recession.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, just book it.

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<v Speaker 3>You're you're looking at a situation right now that's pernicious

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<v Speaker 3>enough to where you may be hearing about people not

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<v Speaker 3>able to get an MRI in the next three months

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<v Speaker 3>because you need helium.

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<v Speaker 2>You need helium for MRIs.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, our helium supplies are going to zero because it's

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<v Speaker 3>a distill it it gets produced, it's a byproduct of

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<v Speaker 3>distilling petroleum.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay.

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<v Speaker 3>Aluminum shot up through the roof because they hit an

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<v Speaker 3>aluminum refinery in Israel.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay. So like there's damage.

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<v Speaker 3>Being done to the global economy that cannot get undone.

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<v Speaker 3>Like everybody's saying always this gonna get is this gonna

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<v Speaker 3>get bad?

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<v Speaker 2>It's horrible right now.

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<v Speaker 3>Our our markets are sleep walking through this, okay, Like

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<v Speaker 3>this stock market is gonna get hammered.

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<v Speaker 2>And we're not hearing about it, like this is this is.

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<v Speaker 3>It's the it's the look the analogy I use the

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<v Speaker 3>other day as I was like, this would be like

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<v Speaker 3>if the stock market had not dropped significantly two weeks

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<v Speaker 3>into lockdowns in COVID, this is the greatest shock in

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<v Speaker 3>energy markets in history.

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<v Speaker 2>And it's not It's not close.

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<v Speaker 3>I know we've been I've been trying to like ring

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<v Speaker 3>the alarm bell now for weeks and everybody's like, is

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<v Speaker 3>it gonna get bad? And I'm like, is it? People

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<v Speaker 3>are gonna die, Like hundreds of people will die from this,

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<v Speaker 3>if not millions. You've got Australia right now, their farmers

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<v Speaker 3>are not planting, they're out of diesel. Oh okay, Like

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<v Speaker 3>you're gonna have food shortages. You're gonna I'm just telling people, like,

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<v Speaker 3>and here's the deal. If if Trump were, if they

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<v Speaker 3>were to walk away today and open up the straight,

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of this stuff's already gonna happen anyway. But

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<v Speaker 3>every single day the straight is closed, you are compounding

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<v Speaker 3>this pain on the back end and everybody's sleepwalking through it.

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<v Speaker 3>And I'm sitting there going, this is nuts. This is nuts.

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<v Speaker 3>I've never seen anything this crazy in my career. And

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<v Speaker 3>you need to be very careful. I will, like, you're

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<v Speaker 3>in an environment right now where literally, if the stock

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<v Speaker 3>market drop fifteen percent in the next ten days, that

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<v Speaker 3>would make a lot more sense.

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<v Speaker 2>Than what's going on right now. So wow, I mean

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<v Speaker 2>you can literally just do it.

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<v Speaker 3>And I can sit there and go, okay, we're oil

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<v Speaker 3>is going to be higher for longer. This is going

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<v Speaker 3>to hit earnings SMP like, and you're going, okay, we

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<v Speaker 3>know that there's been this much damage done.

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<v Speaker 2>Then you look at the market and you're like, what, like,

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<v Speaker 2>what are you what are you guys doing? Oh my god,

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<v Speaker 2>this is bad, guys, It's really bad.

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<v Speaker 3>And no one's talking about it, and I don't think

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<v Speaker 3>people You're like, oh, hell's this going to affect tech,

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<v Speaker 3>And you're like.

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<v Speaker 2>It affects ever guys.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Like one of their biggest costs now is going

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<v Speaker 3>to be the energy to drive these data centers. Their

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<v Speaker 3>energy costs just doubled, like like no one paying attention.

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<v Speaker 2>It's really scary. Currently the biggest recession indicator is you, well, no,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not taking it. Yeah, but I just talk this.

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<v Speaker 3>So we we in the industry, like, so people like

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<v Speaker 3>me that manage money, we're talking about it and just

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<v Speaker 3>nobody's listening and we're looking around at each other.

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<v Speaker 2>Let me let me this is just this is straight legit, Okay.

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<v Speaker 3>So we used to talk about in the energy market

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<v Speaker 3>the straight of horror moves being closed was the equivalent

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<v Speaker 3>of an atomic bomb going off somewhere in the world.

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<v Speaker 2>Meaning oh my god.

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<v Speaker 3>That we always looked at that as a worst case

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<v Speaker 3>scenario in energy markets. I mean, I'm talking for decades

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<v Speaker 3>like this isn't I Ran I Ran did a similar

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<v Speaker 3>thing back in nineteen eighty, but we hadn't they we

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<v Speaker 3>have threatened straight closures before twenty percent of global oil

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<v Speaker 3>supply comes out of there every single day and you

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<v Speaker 3>can't just reroute it. There's no way to inject it

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<v Speaker 3>back in. And so like, for instance, if we undid

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<v Speaker 3>this today, everybody's like the problem to be over. No,

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<v Speaker 3>you've had production shut ins. So even if you unlock

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<v Speaker 3>the straight ohor moves today, we're only producing ninety percent

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<v Speaker 3>of what we need. Wow, global oil storages are almost zero.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, I'm I regret having this conversation.

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<v Speaker 3>And here's the crazy thing.

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<v Speaker 2>Here's the crazy thing. Like I told you, we're up

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<v Speaker 2>fifteen percent, and that's our main this is this is

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<v Speaker 2>gonna be.

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<v Speaker 3>All we did is we just bought a bunch of

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<v Speaker 3>oil and natural gas companies that were super cheap, paying

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<v Speaker 3>good dividends, and we own some goal. That's why we're

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<v Speaker 3>up fifteen percent. Gold positions have been hit a little bit,

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<v Speaker 3>but the energy side of it's carried through. And everybody's like,

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<v Speaker 3>why'd you load up on energy?

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<v Speaker 4>And I'm like, they just close the straight guys, like

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<v Speaker 4>the bomb went off right, Like yeah, and it's just

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<v Speaker 4>and these things were cheap anyway, paying us solid dividends.

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<v Speaker 2>You're like, okay, I'll take that. Okay, it's not good.

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<v Speaker 1>It was horrible, But like, this is what makes me

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<v Speaker 1>glad that you do these webinars, and that's when you

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<v Speaker 1>are telling people who wouldn't ordinarily hear it from the

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<v Speaker 1>news what's going on. And this is why we're constantly

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<v Speaker 1>telling our audience, I need to be paying attention and

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<v Speaker 1>going to these free webinars. How can people find them

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<v Speaker 1>and find you?

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<v Speaker 3>H Yeah, Bullworkcapitalmanagement dot Com. The other thing is, again

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<v Speaker 3>not trying to too my own horn, but we've been

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<v Speaker 3>pounding the table on this on our daily show.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah Daily Dots on YouTube. Just go look for Know

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<v Speaker 2>Your Risk podcasts on YouTube. We got our video feed

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<v Speaker 2>up there every day. We're on every podcast station.

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<v Speaker 3>But I'm really not saying that to pump our own thing,

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<v Speaker 3>but we really make a focused effort to have on specialists,

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<v Speaker 3>Like we had probably one of the pre eminent oil

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<v Speaker 3>specialists in the world on a week and a half

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<v Speaker 3>ago and we did a long form interview with him

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<v Speaker 3>and he walked through this whole thing.

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<v Speaker 2>So we're not getting this news from news anchors on TV.

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<v Speaker 3>They don't know anything, right, So we're actually trying to

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<v Speaker 3>bring you the So if you want to know how

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<v Speaker 3>we deal with it. Af you're one of our clients,

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<v Speaker 3>sign up for the roadshow Bullworkcapital Management dot com. But

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<v Speaker 3>if you want to hear what's really going on in

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<v Speaker 3>the world, just google Know Your Risk podcast and you'll

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<v Speaker 3>find us.

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<v Speaker 2>No problem awesome.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you, Zank, you Zach for Thank you, ladies pressing

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<v Speaker 1>us the best Love It.

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<v Speaker 3>Investment advisory services offered through TREK Financial loc and SEC

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<v Speaker 3>registered investment advisor. The opinions expressed in this programmer for

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<v Speaker 3>general informational purposes only, and are not intended to provide

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<v Speaker 3>specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any

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<v Speaker 3>specific security. Any references to performance of security so it

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<v Speaker 3>thought to be materially accurate and actual performance may differ

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<v Speaker 3>investments involved risk and are not guaranteed. Past performance doesn't

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<v Speaker 3>guarantee future results.

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<v Speaker 2>Trek twenty four three zero eight