Speaker 1: One your life.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Opening Line Report.
Speaker 3: I'm Kelly Stewart with the man himself, Teddy Covers.
Speaker 2: But first, you're hosting this show, Teddy.
Speaker 3: We're gonna have a lot of fun preseason Week one
starts now. We're gonna take you all the way through
the super Bowl, and our goal is to be the
first to market show here on wager Talk TV. These
preseason lines started populating a couple of days ago. Teddy
may have an alert emergency betting alert for two or
three each week.
Speaker 2: We'll see what we can get from him.
Speaker 3: But Teddy, I want to get right into this because
we got a lot of games and we got a
little bit of time.
Speaker 4: That's the way it works on the Opening Line Report.
We always want to yep, yep, yeah. But the truth
is this is the show about information. My goal is
to give you guys great information every week and do
it first thing Monday mornings, so you can get in,
get out, get your bets down, and know that you're
coming in with solid infos so every week and going
to go through everything that happened on Sunday, we'll talk
about where the mark, where my powerty numbers are. We'll
talk about where the market numbers are where we expected
to move, and yes there will be emergency betting alerts,
especially in the preseason. We're already the lines are going
absolutely nuts this morning, and we're seeing the markets move
significantly on a good handful of games.
Speaker 3: Usually on this show, we're gonna start off with what
we learned from last week. Well, last week was the
Hall of Fame game, Teddy, did you have anything that
you took away from that game or was it just
a glorified scrimmage?
Speaker 1: Oh?
Speaker 4: I love that game because my clients and I cash
in over bet. In fact, we cast a five percent
big ticket over bet, and I'm not gonna say it
was the right side.
Speaker 1: Things played out perfectly with the turnovers.
Speaker 4: The turnovers came deep in their own territory and the
Detroit's five turnover ended up resulting in a whole bunch
of points for the Chargers. And in fact, the Lions
offense underperformed significantly from what I thought they were gonna
which may set something up for this week in the preseason.
Speaker 1: But when all of.
Speaker 4: A sudden done, you know it was essentially a winner
by halftime cashing the third quarter. We like it when
the big tickets come in early, and of course the
big tickets I don't want to pop my own back,
but are top.
Speaker 1: My own horn.
Speaker 4: But I am number one all time at wager Talk
with NFL big ticket reports. So cash another one last
Thursday and we'll see if anything steps up this week.
The one that I was thinking about for a big
ticket while the line moved four points overnight. So I
don't know that we're gonna get a big ticket on
that one, but we'll talk about it. And as we
go down through every game on the board every week,
and Keell, I'm the nightmare in terms of corrections. We
go every week through the week after the Super Bowl. Yeah,
we give you a super Bowl recap.
Speaker 3: That is right, It's okay today, I'm already looking forward
to Super Bowl. You guys have no idea and the
NFL season has just begun. We're gonna go through on
the odds Logic screen. Guys buy rotation order, so make
sure you guys have that setup. Oddslogic dot Com backslash
Kelly in Vegas.
Speaker 2: If you're looking for a free one week trial, the
backup options are the wager.
Speaker 3: Talk free on screen. If you guys are not ready
to pony up to the big leagues. Speaking of ponies,
we've got the Colts, Indianapolis Colts taken on the former
Baltimore now called Baltimore Ravens, former Baltimore Colts. This interesting
line move. Already Teddy opened a pick em. Well it's
all minus one. Now we're seeing some pickums. Then all
of a sudden, you go over and you go, what
is going on? We've got super Book at four FanDuel
at three and a half. Total has already ticked up
half a point at some of those books and a
full point at the super Book.
Speaker 2: Talk to me about Shane Stike and squad.
Speaker 3: Kind of curious to see what's going to happen here
with Anthony richardson him coming out of the state of Florida.
I got to watch him his last year here for
the Gators, and I thought we'd see some big things
from him here at the Colts.
Speaker 2: Got hurt right there out of the gate.
Speaker 3: And now we've got Daniel Jones, the failed overpaid guy
from the New York Giants.
Speaker 4: So one thing we definitely want to remember for preseason,
we're gonna talk a lot about the starting quarterbacks and
the backup quarterbacks, they're largely irrelevant.
Speaker 1: In August.
Speaker 4: We're talking about second stringers, third stringers, fourth stringers. You know,
So when there is quarterback competition, there's a handful of
teams at their quarterback competition for the starting job. We'll
talk about how it relates. But the markets certainly react
to those situations. This is situation where Baltimore opened. You know,
I wrote down the numbers on Friday, all right before
the full market opened. There were a handful of books
open bet online DK YadA, YadA. There was one one
and a half for Baltimore. Total thirty four and a
half thirty five. And obviously now we're looking with the
Colts favored by more than a field goal, big line
move overnight on this ball game, and for good reason.
Remember when Harbo was the bet On coach in the preseason,
it was a stretch over what like a seven year
eight year span where he was like as good as
it gets in August.
Speaker 1: That was then.
Speaker 4: This is now two thousand and three. John Harball Owen
three ats two thousand and four, John Harball Owen three
ats in the preseason. So if you're looking at long
term Harbor numbers, you're gonna see winning, winning, winning. If
you're looking at short term harbor numbers, you're gonna see losing, losing,
losing when it comes to the QBS for this game,
and again much of the success you know sometimes the
coaches that have success in August and then don't have
success somewhere else or later on. Let's stay with the
quarterback rotations. And for Baltimore obviously, Lamark Jackson. Don't know
how much Cooper Rush you're gonna pay. I think it's
gonna be a lot of Devin Leary in this ball game,
kid at an NC State. Meanwhile, Andy has a legit
quarterback competition between Richardson and Daniel Jones and what they
do when it comes to a third string and who's
going to be on the field in the when the
points spread could be decided, Well, Riley Leonard Bean could
get a fair bit of playing time in the second half. Now,
Steiken said that he's going to give one of his
two potential starters, Richardson or Jones more playing time the
one week, and the other one's gonna get more playing
time in week two.
Speaker 1: We didn't say which quarterback is which.
Speaker 4: From a points fight perspective, it doesn't really matter that
much both guys playing for a starting job and both
guys veterans in that sense, but it's worth noting for
week two, wherever we see a lot in week one,
we're not going to see one.
Speaker 1: Little note for Baltimore.
Speaker 4: And again I try to find little notes for all
the teams despite you know, as not just who the
quarterback rotations might be because a lot of coaches haven't
announced it yet and what the coach's track records are
trying to had little notes from my perusing of all
local papers this past weekend. And the Ravens, for the
first time in a long time, have a new kicker
not named Justin Tucker Tyler. Loop was brilliant in practice
and hal the fifty sixth yarder and nail the sixty yarder.
He's the only kicker in camp and there is urgency
for Loop to get field goal attempts in the game,
So Baltimore is one team that won't be going for
it on fourth down when they're in field goal range.
We saw a lot of fourth down conversions the other
night for the Lions Chargers that were very good for
my over. We're not likely to see that here with
Baltimore trying to get their new kicker some in game reps,
but the money's poured in on Indy. I don't know
we're going to see more Indie money from three and
a half slast four, but there's certainly no shortage of
pros who loaded up on the Colts in early betting
action as the Lions opened.
Speaker 3: Guys, I know not everybody's into betting preseason, but we
are here discussing it because there is money to be made.
Teddy really quickly let everybody kind of know how the
last few preseasons have went for you. And also, if
you guys are looking for some betting tips on what
to be looking for during preseason, some dudes and don'ts.
If you will head over to the wager Talk Instagram channel,
Teddy put out his top three things you need to
know for betting NFL preseason.
Speaker 1: Sure, and the preseason has been good. You know, we
closed out last.
Speaker 4: Year with a three and oh sweep in Week eighteen
or week three of the preseason. We won the first
week here, so we're riding a four and oh run
into Week one of this year. I think it's eighteen
and eleven over the last three years or since twenty
twenty two, uh, sixty two percent rock solid, no complaints.
But I'm running good right now, Cal. I mean, I'm
seventy percent of all sports a year. The last six days.
The baseball has been good this year. Any games have
been in my favor this week obviously, the season win
reports still available one to oh three and fifty two,
sixty percent lifetime over the last twenty four years with
that report including seventeen and four eighty percent to five
percent big tickets. My NFL Week one thirty and eleven
over the last ten years seventy three percent eight and
two with the five percent big tickets, and obviously the
big tickets overall of it pretty good number one all
time at wager Talk. So all plays four percent are higher,
sixty six percent its March. I'm running pretty good in
a lot of different areas right now, so not a
bad time to get on board. And obviously the preseason
has been good for me, both this year so far
and in seasons passed, and not just good for me,
it's good for my clients as well.
Speaker 2: That's the most important part, all right.
Speaker 3: Cincinnati taking on the Super Bowl champs Philadelphia. I've got
my Odds logic screen open here this one open pick them.
You mentioned the money coming in on the Colts, a
big money coming in on the Bengals super Bowl, currently
sitting here.
Speaker 2: At three and a half.
Speaker 3: But Zach Taylor has been awful in preseason against the spread.
Speaker 2: Touch on that and tell me what you think about
this matchup.
Speaker 4: Yeah, sure, And so I had a split favorite here
offshore since the open minus one and the global books
here in the US, I saw Philly minus one and
a half at DK at the open total thirty five,
thirty five and a half. And we've seen over money
and we've seen a whole lot of Cincinnati money. So
there's certainly something. You know, the reports out of Bengals camp.
You have the new dc AL Golden from Notre Dame.
This is the defense that was pretty awful last year.
They had something to prove. They've been showing swagger in
camp and they want to do it in the game.
So we're hearing a lot of positive defensive quotes from Cincinnati.
But you nailed it when it comes to Zach Taylor.
Zach Taylor's coach sixteen preseason games. He's won three of them,
three of them and straight up fashion. Not a guy
who really cares all that much about the W or
the L. That being said, we talked about the video
that I put up about how to beat the preseason,
how to bet the preseason, and one of my key
points in that video that's available on Instagram and all
over the place wherever you guys posted it's up. But
I talked about cluster injuries being your number one issue
for bet against teams. When you have a team that
has cluster injuries anywhere, they become bet against. Well, Philly's
got issue at wide receiver right now. Both starters banged
up already. It's not a position where they have a
ton of depth paid their top guys. So when you
have a wide receiving corps that may not be very
deep and may not be very good this week, you
can expect a very vanilla game plan from a team
that has nothing to prove in Week one in August,
and we talked about Zach Taylor and his struggle in
the preseason. I like Nick Siriani has been that much
better last four years. For Sirianni three straight up wins
in twelve preseason game. Neither coach gives a crap about
winning or losing this one, and we talk about bet
on teams. One other point that I like to make
in the preseason. When you're betting on, if you want,
there's lots of bet against stuff. If I'm laying more
than two or three points, inspect if I'm laying more
than two, one and two of the key numbers in August,
I need some bet on and some bet against.
Speaker 1: I've got bet against for the Eagles.
Speaker 4: I don't know how much bet on I have for
Cincinnati right now, and of course the Bengals. When it
comes to QB rotations, we're not going to see Joe
Burrow and company in this this one. Jake Browning, Logan Woodside,
Peyton Thorn likely to go in some order for Cincinnati
for the majority of the game.
Speaker 3: Here, we're gonna keep it rocking and rolling so we
can get through all these preseason games. We've got the
Las Vegas Raiders currently well minus two at the Westgates
super Book total thirty six and a half.
Speaker 2: Teddy, we've seen this line flip in favor of Vegas.
Speaker 3: Talk to me about your hometown team here and what
we should expect expect from them in this preseason game.
Speaker 4: Let's talk emergency betting alert, because this one is number
one on the list and we have no we have
a volume.
Speaker 2: We have We're gonna make a fake siren next week.
I got you, Teddy, next week, I got you.
Speaker 4: Anyhow, So the line opened here Seattle minus one and
a half. There were even minus two's out there, total
thirty five and a half.
Speaker 1: This line has flipped.
Speaker 4: Towards the Raiders, and now we're seeing the Raiders minus
one and a half minus.
Speaker 1: Two total has been a bet up.
Speaker 4: And note that you know, every game we've talked about
so far, we've seen over money come in for what
it's worth, and this game no exception of that role.
Thirty five now up to thirty six slash thirty six
and a half, the.
Speaker 1: Raiders already up to one and a half. Two. I
expect more Raiders money.
Speaker 4: All right, it's a situation here where you have Pete Carroll,
who is clearly interested in winning games. In August all right,
got a great quote from Carol talking about how winning matters,
and of course both Gino Smith again, Gino Smith's not
gonna get a lot of playing time here, but Aidan O'Connell,
the backup has been getting rave reviews in preseason camp.
Then again, when Gino and Aiden Connell are both getting
rave reviews, that does perhaps lead to some concerns about
the defense for the Raiders. Of course, they lost Christian
wilklms Lonnie Johnson got carted off on Saturday. Those are
two impact losses if you're looking at some of the
pre he's and betting guides for the Raiders already missing
two guys, and.
Speaker 1: Of course the quotes out of camp.
Speaker 4: They are still shuffling on the off the line, which
could be a problem against the Seattle.
Speaker 1: Team that could be decent up front.
Speaker 4: But here's one for the Seahawks that's worth throwing in
the earth, you know again, one of the bass as
you wanted to file away for that. I really hope
I don't lose my bet this way. If you like
Seattle long snapper concerns for the opener, they might need
a temporary long snapper. They might have the fullback or
Brady Russell fill in, but Russell the quote from Russell
was we from Mike McDonald was we can't afford to
let him get hurt because the only guy we have
in that role. So they could be signing a long
snapper off the waiver wire, and that could be an
issue again week one of the preseason. How did these
games get decided special teams miss you certainly a piece
of the equation. Obviously, there's intrigue with Pete, Carroll and
g returning to Lumenfield now with members of the Raiders.
You know the quote from McDonald's we're not gonna be
playing our starters, but we're gonna compete like heck. I
think Pete would appreciate that. I hope Pete gets a
great open and he deserves it. So Seattle certainly in
a situation where there could be some issues on special teams,
but they're not laying down in this game. That being said,
the Raiders have the QB rotation, the early line move
of the motivation. Raiders have taken money already. I would
not be shocked in the slightest if they take more.
If you like the Raiders, I bet them sooner rather
than later.
Speaker 1: Obviously, are the up.
Speaker 4: To minus one and a half minus two, and the
difference that gulf between two and three in the preseason
is enormous.
Speaker 1: So many of these.
Speaker 4: Games to get decided on two point conversions. Or missed
two point conversions. Nobody plays for overtime. You have ties
now in August, so plus two slash minus two matters.
The three versus the two is worth more than the standard.
Speaker 1: You know what, you know? You're talking about ten cents.
Speaker 4: To buy a line by a half point, and more
than that on and off of three in preseason one,
one and a half, two and a half. They're all
worth more than ten cents at least in this better's opinion.
Speaker 3: All right, shout out to the comments section here on YouTube.
We appreciate you guys hanging out with us on this
beautiful Monday morning. You can catch Teddy and I here
every single Monday morning up until well February ninth, the
monday after the Super Bowl. Sadie, let's get into those
Friday preseason games. I've got my odds logic screen open.
Cleveland's taking on Carolina. Swin's up to Carolina three and
a half. Even at the super Book, this total has
been met up two points from the opener of thirty
three and a half to thirty five and a half.
Speaker 2: Shadra Sanders is banged up? Can he pickets banged up?
Is it?
Speaker 3: Dylan Gabriel time for the Browns.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's funny because Cleveland's like, oh, Cleveland's got the
type of quarterback rotation that everybody loves in August, except
when should Or Sanders has armed Sanders and Armshortness and
Kenny Pickett as a hamstring and Joe Flacco ain't gonna
be out there for more than a cup of coffee
if he plays at all, which means it'll be lots
and lots of Dylan Gabriel this week. Now, I don't
know that Sanders is out. I'm expecting pet Pickett's not
gonna play. The markets aren't expecting Sanders. But even Sanders
does play, it would be Gabriel and Sanders, two rookies
getting their first taste of real NFL action. The markets
don't care for that at all. Carolina opened, there were
two and a half in the global markets are one
and a Half's here thirty three thirty three and a
half the total over money coming in on this one
as well.
Speaker 1: And I mean.
Speaker 4: Dave Canalis's is as a coach speak guy, nothing but positives.
That's why the players love him. But in terms of
trying to find the quotes that I can give.
Speaker 1: From this guy.
Speaker 4: It's all good, good good, no bad bad bad for Carolina.
Andy Dalton, Jack Plummer, Ethan Garber's for Carolina.
Speaker 1: Up. I don't know how much Bryce Young is gonna
play here.
Speaker 4: I wouldn't expect him play any if he does, just
a little bit, and that's not necessarily a QB trio
that I want to be laying a field goal with.
So this had emergency betting of their potential. It's already
moved to three slash three and a half. I'm not
I don't think it goes any higher than it already
is for Carolina given that QB rotation, even though the
betting markets really want to go against Cleveland in this ballgame,
given those QB injuries for Kevin Stefanski squad.
Speaker 3: All right, Detroit is taking on Atlanta. Detroit's taking money
as well, up to three and a half there in
Vegas total thirty three and a half, not all the
way across the board, but pretty much everywhere but a
couple of offshorees. Teddy, let's talk about that Hall of
Fame game. Maybe having a few reps under your belt?
Does that bode well for that next preseason game?
Speaker 4: It sure does, especially when everyone's stunk in that preseason game.
I'll talk about the quotes in a minute. My numbers
have Detroit minus one and a half at the open
total thirty four slash thirty four and a half at
the first books they posted. So this is the one
game we've actually need some under money. And when you
read what's going on in both of these camps right now,
there's a very different sense of urgency for these two teams,
hence the Lions money in preseason.
Speaker 1: If you're urgent, you're likely to win, all right.
Speaker 4: The Falcons Panis had a couple of rough practices, you know,
cousins veteran.
Speaker 1: I don't know how much either guy is going to
play in this game. I wouldn't expect much from Atlanta
starter or from their backup QB, which means Easton Stick,
Emery Jones, the other two qbs on the roster. Meanwhile,
for Detroit, all right, they played on Thursday night, they
turned the ball over five times, they lost thirty four
to seven, and they were not amused in terms of
the at least.
Speaker 4: The quarterbacks are out of use now. Hendon Hooker played
in the second half last week. He's supposed to play
in the first half this week. Kyle Allen threw a
couple of picks last week. He's supposed to play the
second half. That is a bet on QB duo. The
reports at a Detroit camp, and one of the reasons
I like the over for the Hall of Fame game
was the reports for both these guys, how while they
were picking up the offense. How while they were playing
in camp, Hooker said he was quote very disappointed in himself.
He's looking to bounce back, and these two are legitimately
battling for the number two quarterback spot behind Goff. One
of the other things I talked about in the video,
I don't know if I talked about in that video
or not, but one of the other key points for
preseason that I want to make, Yes, starting quarterback competitions matter,
but backup quarterback competitions are better because the backups are
going to be on the field for longer portions of games.
And when you have Hooker veteran, Alan veteran, both guys
with something to prove, the veteran QB going against a
third and fourth string defense. We love the backup QB competitions,
and so do the markets. Obviously, that's why Detroit is
taking the money that they've been taking already. I would
not be surprised again three right now, they're three and
a half popping. I would not be surprised we see
more Detroit money, especially if we got another bad report
out of Pennix out of Atlanta. Practice today in Penix's capabilities.
Speaker 3: All right, Washington taking on New England. New England opened
minus two, hitting two and a half. The totals picked
up almost a point there in Vegas to thirty four
and a half. Taddy, New England gonna be interesting with
Rabel this season. Do you think he actually wants to
win his preseason game or is he one of those
old school guys that doesn't really care.
Speaker 4: So, Rabel's an interesting story in Tennessee because his long
term results were very good as a head coach in Tennessee.
That being said, year after year, the Titans had really
good quarterback rotations. August this year, well they got Grake
May and Josh Dobbs. Don't know how much either guy
is gonna play. I'm expecting the undrafted rookie free agent
Ben Woolridge from Louisiana, the Raging Cajuns. I'm expecting him
to get the majority of the playing time in this
ball game. Not sure how much May or Dobbs were
gonna see in this one. Vrabel long term winner with
Tennessee in August, his first season with the Titans. OH
and four straight up, oh and four against the spread,
and oh, by the way, cluster injuries to report the Patriots.
Four different offensive linemen got hurt last week, one of
them when Iris out for the year. The starting center
got hurt, a couple of backups, third stringer. They have
issues on the offensive line right now. And that to
me says when you have ol issues, maybe your qbs
aren't gonna be out there quite as long as you
think they might be able to stick the undrafted rookie
free agent out there to get beat up and not
the regular guy. So Vrabel first year, long term, good
first year for Tennessee. Zero to four ats and straight up,
clusterings and off of the line. These are bet against
scenarios for New England. But the pages are taking money.
Interesting now for Washington, here's the quote. You know, this
is something I just cut and pasted it out of
an article. Washington continued. Washington's defense from a beat writer Washington.
Washington defense continues to give its offense problems in training camp,
a key reason the secondary. Washington's corners are much better
in press man coverage than the last year's group, allowing
their companders to play more of that look successfully. So
for what's worth, the Washington, like Atlanta, the offense hasn't
necessarily clicked so far in August. That being said, you
can make case that it's the defense that's caused the
offense not to click, not just the offense being awful.
Speaker 1: For the Commanders two and a half.
Speaker 4: I'll put it this way, Commanders be on my short
list for the clients this week.
Speaker 3: All right, A game that hasn't moved hardly at all
open thirty six Buffalo minus two and a half over
the New York Giants Suddy nothing related note with this
Buffalo Bill's team, but the Giants have well essentially four
quarterbacks who could be playing in these next four preseason games.
Speaker 2: Break that down.
Speaker 3: How do you kind of sift through the information and
make an informed result?
Speaker 4: So this is key, all right in the preseason. The
only stuff I'm betting is when the information says bet it.
You know, there's lots of games where there's really not
much there. And when there's games that aren't, there's not
much there. You know what I do You pass unless
the line that if the line moves significantly, you look
at it again. If you find something, you find no
reason that makes sense to you for the line move,
maybe you fade it. But you know, the majority of
games we're not gonna play, this is one of them.
I haven't found anything not an interesting preseason note about
Buffalo at all. For the g men, it's been very
clear in case that Russell Wilson is the guy, which
means Wilson's not likely to play much, if at all,
this week. There's gonna be lots of Jackson Dart, we
may see some Jameis Winston, some Tommy DeVito, and Winston
and DeVito bet on. Anytime you have a veteran quarterback
in August who's gonna get reps throwing the ball down field,
they become bet off. You know, even a Tommy DeVito
is a bet on quarterback against a third string defense
in August.
Speaker 1: So but all three of those guys have.
Speaker 4: Clearly struggled so far in camp, so that's not necessarily
a big bet on situation.
Speaker 1: And of course, the Giants aren't chalk here.
Speaker 4: Despite their QB competition, buffal opened one and a half,
two and a half, thirty three and a half was
the total, and as you mentioned, the only thing we've
seen on this one over money from those opening numbers.
I want to talk about something else that I neglect.
I wrote it right from my very first note, and
I neglected it because I got caught up in Anthony
Richardson and Daniel Jones talk. There's a key concept that
I want to talk about that's joint practice sessions. A
lot of these preseason games, they'll have joint practice sessions,
one or two of them before the game. When they
go well for a team, the urgency is off in
terms of reps and the joint pract Many coaches inder
the joint practice session is more important than the game itself.
So if you have a good joint practice session, if
you read those reports and they're like, oh, the so
and so dominated and joint practice, well that's not a
bet on for the actual game. It becomes a bet
against for the actual game because they're a little bit
fat and happy and the other team becomes the urgent.
Speaker 1: So a lot of.
Speaker 4: These preseason joint practice sessions. I don't like to bet
the game until I read about how that practice session went,
because that'll give you one more edge when it comes
to which team is actually motivated to play better in
the game than they did in the practice session. I
look to bet on the teams that did poorly in
those in those practice sessions, and you'll read a lot
of reports about them this coming week because obviously many
of these teams before they play will have a joint
practice session with their opponents or two or three or
two no threes.
Speaker 3: All right, we're gonna keep going through those Saturday andfl
preseason games. Houston currently a two and a half point underdog.
They're at the Super Book in Las Vegas total thirty six.
The Minnesota Vikings here, Teddy, I'm kind of curious to
see what this team is made of this year.
Speaker 2: Are we gonna see much.
Speaker 3: Of them during the preseason or do you think O'Connell
kind of keeps this team under wraps.
Speaker 4: So opener for this Minnesota one and a half, I
had a thirty four and a thirty five and a
half is what I wrote down for openers, and I
mean Minnesota. So far, the report's almost universal defense is
dominating the offense in practice, and there's been lots of
positive quotes about the defense and maybe a really good
defense for Minnesota, but obviously with JJ McCarthy as a
essentially a rookie quarterback, there are potentially issues behind him.
Sam Howe, Brett Rippon, Matt Brossmer who's not a QB.
I'd be excited about backing with my money in Week
one for the Texans and starting five on offense solidify
the Meco Ryans. You know, though, all these questions about
Houston's offensive line mecho Ryans is like, well, I got
the starting five. We want to see how they do
in a preseason game together. Their quarterback rotation not necessarily
bet on. Obviously You've got Stroud, but Stroud's if he
comes in again. Any starting QB this week is not
going to get more than a cup of coffee one drive.
You know, Davis, Mills, Graham, Mertz, Keton Slovas, and Mertz
and Slovis are not bet on qbs in my opinion.
Mills is, but I don't know how much time he's
going to get. Ryan's does have a good track record.
In August five and two straight up overs first two
pre seasons on the job.
Speaker 3: All right, let's get on to some of these other
games here. Pittsburgh is taken on Jacksonville. The Steelers offense
is going to be interesting to watch. I'm gonna go
ahead and assume we're not gonna see any Aaron Rodgers,
and if we do, it might be for a series.
Jacksonville opened minus one, still pretty much minus one everywhere.
Speaker 2: Total thirty five and a half.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that's really where hoping there was a minus
one and a half at the open. Total thirty five,
thirty five and a half. I mean, this line really
hasn't done anything so far, and it might not you
know again, but there's no info. People don't bet the
quotes out of Pittsburgh camp. The Steelers offense has been
excuse me quote slow to gel. Defense has been dominant,
the offense not so much. And obviously we're not going
to see Aaron Rodgers in this ball game. We're gonna
see him. So for Pittsburgh, we talked about a QB
room without Aaron Rodgers behind center.
Speaker 1: And of course, Tomlin's not a guy who really cares
all that much.
Speaker 4: Owned three ats last year, although the two previous years
three and oh straight up three and oh ats, So
there's cure, only been randomness with Tomlin owned three straight
up in ats last year six and oh straight up
in ats the previous years and long term Tomlin had.
Speaker 1: Been a pretty good coach.
Speaker 4: In August, Mason, Rudolph, Will Howard's been getting good reports
out of.
Speaker 1: Camp, the Skyler Thompson.
Speaker 4: That is essentially a bet on in my opinion, QB trio,
Rudolph and Thompson veterans, and Howard a guy A with
something to prove and B who's been playing well in
camp so far. So those are positives for Pittsburgh, for Jacksonville,
new coach, new coordinators, new administration, sometimes you see some
and of course first year, first time, so sometimes you
see some growing pains and some issues. Nick Mullins came
in and through a ninety yard pick six in practice
over the weekend. When you have a veteran QB that
does that, all right, Nick Mullins throwing a ninety yard
pick six, that's a positive for him in the next
preseason game. It is it's a QB who now has
something to prove of, you know, and not the mistakes
or positives. But Mullins is someone who's been around long
enough that you know, and he's fighting for his job
versus John Wolford, who's had some pretty good preseasons with
the Rams.
Speaker 1: By the way, seth Hennigan.
Speaker 4: The undrafted rookie free agent out of Memphis, was a
four year starter at Memphis. But Hannigan could get a
fair bit of playing time in the second half here
and again, when you talk about the undrafted rookie free
agents getting most of the playing time in the second half,
those don't tend.
Speaker 1: To be bet on situations.
Speaker 4: You find the exceptions to those rule, but they don't
tend to be bet on. But this line hasn't done anything.
It's not doing anything right now. It may not do
anything all week.
Speaker 1: But so far, not a lot of action on Pittsburgh
and Jacksonville, all.
Speaker 3: Right, Teddy Dallas is an interesting line here open two
and a half in some shops, two at super Book,
three at some prominent offshores. Very interesting here total thirty
three and a half. Here's what I'm trying to figure out,
Michael Parsons, does any of this kind of dramatized stuff
have a negative effect on the preseason no.
Speaker 4: But it has a negative effect on information. You know,
Michael Parsons is sucking all the auction out of the
room for all the beat writers. All the stories are
about Michael Parsons and what the team thinks about Michael Parsons.
But Michael Parson thinks about Michael Parsons, and what the
coaches think about Michael Parsons, what the beat writer thinks
about Michael Parsons. So it sucks the auction out of
the room in terms of where the information comes from,
and that leaves me short on info for Dallas. To
be perfectly honest, that's all I'm getting is Michael Parsons
reports everywhere I look, and you talked about it. I
saw two and a half minus twenty five at the Open.
I saw three minus and Nickel thirty three and a
half at the Open. And this is one game that
hasn't seen over money. For what it's worth, so many
of these games have, this one hasn't. These are two
teams that history the Cowboys haven't cared at all.
Speaker 1: About preseason in recent years.
Speaker 4: They might this year, obviously new head coach, a first year,
first time, but they have the joint practice session with
the Rams on Tuesday. I would expect the line to
move more likely based on what happens in that joint
practice session than anything we've seen.
Speaker 1: Beforehands and the Rams.
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know the coach that cares less
about winning or losing than Sean McVay. They don't play
starters in August. McVeigh could care less about winning or losing.
Last year they went the three and oh straight up
three and oats. They faced three other team that didn't
care either. They went on three ats and twenty twenty three.
And that's the beauty of the preseason is when you're
looking at a bet against coach, he's got to be
going against a bet on a team that cares about
winning and if you're going to find a good reason
to bet against them, and Dallas doesn't care either. Now
it is worth noting Matthew Stafford hurt. He hasn't played yet,
he hasn't practiced yet. Mcveigh's quote about Stafford he's not
going to return to the joint practice against the Cowboys
on Tuesday. In ox nerd quote, it truly is a
week to week thing. What I don't want to do
is set a timeline. I know he's making good progress.
And of course for the Rams and McVeigh, the QB
rotation when there is no Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo, Stets
and Bennett again doesn't excite you in September, But in
August that's an okay duo.
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 3: Teddy, Tennessee up to a one and a half point
favorite total thirty five here versus Tampa Bay. We're gonna
have a cam Warren siding here on Saturday night.
Speaker 4: We might again one one and a half at the
open thirty four and a half. And really, I mean
this is not a line that's doing a whole lot.
And if you notice the big lot, a lot of
the bigger moves were coming in the early games in
the Baltimore since the Philly gott in hit, Seattle Vegas
got hit. Those are the Thursday games. Washington, New England
got hit. Today, Detroit, Atlanta got hit. Those are the
and then really Carolina Cleveland got hit. That was up
to three whatever used in a Mercy bend, learn on that.
But then we got bet up to three right before
we get on air. There is it's worth noting with
Cleveland Carolina, there isn't two and a half still at DraftKings.
That won't be there in an hour. I don't think so.
If you're interested in laying, that's the place to do it.
And that's one of the benefits of having that Odds
logic live odd screens. You can see, Hey, this is
where I want to bet this right now. As long
as you have multiple accounts, which of all the things
you need to do, is as a better trying to
have success, having multiple accounts is the single most important
thing that you can do. It gives you access to
free line and free half points every time you try.
Speaker 1: When it comes to Tennessee and Tampa.
Speaker 4: So every report out of Tennessee has been you know,
we had the our offense is mid from cam Ward midweek.
Speaker 1: That was midweek on Sunday.
Speaker 4: The practice before yesterday was Callahan blew the whistle and
expressed his frustration to the team before having him run. Yeah,
their offense isn't working yet code from J. C. Latham
to tackle. We were three and fourteen. So any hints
signed whatever of last year was that carries over. Anyone
of the team is going to say something about it.
He said about the frustrations surrounding Sunday's offense performance.
Speaker 1: But make no mistake.
Speaker 4: About it, Tennessee is a long long way from being
a finished product right now. On the officer side of
the football, I'm gonna comes to QB rotations for the Titans.
Speaker 1: You know, obviously cam Ward's the guy. I don't know
how much playing time he's going to.
Speaker 4: Get, Will Levis, Brandon Allen, Tim Boyle behind him. And
again from a from an August perspective, that's a decent quote.
Speaker 1: That's a decent trio for Tampa.
Speaker 4: The gut these guys of a joint practice with the
Titans on Thursday, I'm not gonna see Baker.
Speaker 1: Beker's been sitting out, just like Matthew Stabber's been sitting out.
He returns. He's expected to return to practice this week.
Speaker 4: The QB rotation for Tampa with no Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask,
Michael Pratt, Connor Baslac, the undrafted rookie free agent that's
not a bet on trio in my opinion. Now Bowls
two and one straight up ats each in the last
three years, and he go oh and three straight up
on ats in twenty twenty two. I got him as
a neutral rating for August. Not a bet on guy,
not a bet against guy for Tampa.
Speaker 1: But Tampa is certainly not a team in this instance.
Let's put it this way.
Speaker 4: Tennessee's laying in Tampa for a reason, and that has
everything to do with the urgency and with the QB
rotation for the Titans.
Speaker 3: Okay, the Green Bay Packers opened up as a two
point favorite pretty much choose across the board, So I'll
just sticked up a point in a half to thirty
five and a half. At least they're in Vegas, Teddy
banged up here, yet they are still the favorite. Is
that because the Jets are just that abysmal?
Speaker 4: So the forsan of Jets camp was, you know, hey,
the defense looked pretty good, the running game was there,
Josh Field is able to scramb out of the pocket,
and the passing game has been completely ineffective, which is
just like the Jets last year with Aaron Rodgers. So
an ineffective passing game and those reports obviously justin Field
and justin Fields is something to prove.
Speaker 1: It's a veteran QB. And again, I don't know how
much playing time he's going to get.
Speaker 4: I have not seen a quote on that, yet those
quotes tend to come out today tomorrow for playing time.
But Tyrod Taylor the backup, and then you're looking at
Adrian Martinez and Brady Cook, two guys who were making
their NFL debuts. I think Martinez played play in the
preseason last year. I think he did, but not much action,
not much experience for the Jets at the quarterback position.
You talked about green Bay and green Bay clearly, and
again I saw twos and one and a halfs at
the open thirty four thirty three and a half as
the totals. And for green Bay there is already injury
concerns at a couple of different positions. And really, I
mean the report I got out of the reports I
got out out of green Bay is multiple injuries, significant
injury list. And in a preseason Week one game, when
you have a significant injury list already, you ain't putting
starters in the lineup. So I'm not sure how much
bet on green Bay is for this game. Matt Lafleur
in August, you know, you look at his track record
and of course that sort of thing. Matam Malik willis,
Sean Clifford, Taylor Elgersima from Canada as the third la
floor two and one straight up ats each to the
last two years.
Speaker 1: However, the two years before that.
Speaker 4: One in five straight up in ats, so it's not
a consistent track record of success.
Speaker 1: In August for Matt Lafleur and the Patners.
Speaker 3: All right, Kansas City taking on Arizona, both teams with
some wide receiver injuries there Teddy Chiefs minus one and
a half thirty six and a half. Currently that total
has been met up opener thirty five. Kind Of curious
here because if you're looking at a couple of different
shops on the Odds logic screen, super Book is the
highest at thirty six and a half. Are they getting
ahead of the market here or do you think they're
just generally taking over money.
Speaker 4: I'm confident that they took over money. I mean, in
the preseason books aren't going to have opinions on the Lions.
It's we're they're gonna respond to action, you know, and
they're gonna move quickly when they see action. I'm surprised
at this over money. Let's put this way. I wouldn't
bet it case was minus one one and a half.
The open thirty five thirty five and a half at
the open and you talked about the injury. Both these
teams have injuries, significant injuries to their receiving core. Ready
Kansas City, both starters, the whole starting corps is hurt.
And when you talk about a team like CAC that's
a little bit top heavy in terms of salary, the
receiver depth isn't there.
Speaker 1: So when you have a bunch.
Speaker 4: Of guys hurt at the top, that puts the second
stringers in the first ringer those guys can't get hurt.
It's going to be a lot of guys you never
heard of and aren't going to make the roster in
the second half of this ball game on the field
for Kansas City, and a similar story for the Cardinals,
you know they have a limited wide receiver death Harrison's
hurt already. I would not be surprised at both these
teams hand the ball off a whole lot in the
preseason opener on Saturday, and preseason totals can be a
little bit random, but this is a game I would
expect under before I expect it over. I'm surprised the
total is as high as it is and that it's
holy as high as it is. We haven't seen anything
going when it comes to under money come in for
any of these ballgames. You know it's been over money
or nothing for the vast majority, and this is no
exception to that rule.
Speaker 3: All right, over two thousand people watching us live right now, Teddy,
here on a beautiful Monday morning. The NFL season is back.
We've got three more games to get through. Today, we've
got the Denver Broncos. Wow, taking some money. This missed
the emergency betting alert here. San Francisco opened one super book,
now up to three. Let's take a look at FanDuel.
They're three as well as draftings. This one was thirty four,
now thirty four and a half almost across the board.
Odds Launch dot Com, Backslash Kelly and Vegas if you
guys want to hop on there for a seven day
free trial, Teddy, let's talk about these two teams.
Speaker 2: I have a lot worth noting here for the preseason,
but we know you do, and.
Speaker 4: I would not be surprised if Denver takes more money.
All right, if you wanted. We're not going to see
buy back on Sant franc so we can emergency betting
alert this one as well, we've missed the best of it.
This had potentially be a five star for me last night,
a big ticket. I looked at it and I'm like,
let's see what it looks like tomorrow morning. And then
line move four points over. Oh well, it's not gonna be.
You know, we may still release it, but it's certainly
not gonna be, and I doubt we will h but
we may still release it if the information continues to
come in the direction.
Speaker 1: The information is.
Speaker 4: All Denver so far for this one, but after a
four point line, but there's no way it's a five percent.
But nonetheless, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes higher.
Speaker 1: I really wouldn't.
Speaker 4: The Broncos defense has been of course, this line opened
san Frian one. There was so here in the States,
it was san Fran off in global books with san
Fran as a favorite.
Speaker 1: Here in the States it was Denver as the favorite.
Total open thirty four to thirty four and a half.
Speaker 4: Total hasn't moved, but the money's poured in on the
Broncos san Fran. There's really cluster injuries everywhere, injuries everywhere
all right. A wide receiver is injured, lots of injuries.
But the forty nine ers just suffered through an injury
reddal disaster of a season. Nobody who's banged up's gonna play.
It's gonna be a lot of guys you haven't heard
of it, and a lot of guys, I mean, make
the roster for Denver. All the reports out of camp
is how this defense is dominating, dominating, dominating. That being said,
they have some issues in there's the linebacking court. Drew
Sanders got hurt, Alex Singleton got hurt, Drake Greenlaw just
limped off. So Denver's defense has been elite in camp,
but that may also be speaking to the offense. That
being said, we're not gonna see Niners money. The Niners
don't care and they're banged up. So yes, this line's
already moved. It could move more. Denver's the only way
I can bet it, and obviously the markets have.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I should have bet this. I should have given
it to the clients last night and I didn't.
Speaker 4: And when you lose four points about line value in August,
sometimes you still have to make plays after losing some
vine value.
Speaker 1: You have to or else you won't find anything.
Speaker 4: Because the markets move really quickly, but after four points
it would just no. There's no step up play after
you lose four points of value. Not a chance I
can do that. If it's a play for the clients,
will be you know, a two percent or three percent,
a lower end selection, and at three I probably won't
get there.
Speaker 1: I might still what I probably won't.
Speaker 3: All right, we'll keep an eye on that one. The
Dolphins are headed to Chicago to take on the Bears.
Bears two and a half point favorite, seeing some over
money here from the opener of thirty five and a
half up to thirty seven seeing it's interesting because the
graphics says Miami open two and a half. I'm here
on the Ladd's logic screen, Teddy says Chicago open two
and a half.
Speaker 2: Tell me some thoughts on this one.
Speaker 3: I don't know what to make of this Bears team,
and I'm gonna go ahead and assume we're not going
to see Tua for the Dolphins. Give me some give
me some insight on this matchup.
Speaker 4: So I saw Miami. I wrote down Miami two and
a half as my opener as well. So there was
a big line move on this one early towards Chicago
or when the market's matured other books, but Chicago as
a favorite, and the markets have accepted that. And for
miamim me two is looking amazing. All the reports out
of Camp or two a wow, to a blow you away,
to a hitting the ball in tight windows.
Speaker 1: But he's not gonna play in this game, you.
Speaker 4: Know, Zach Wilson quinn ewers the sixth round out of
Texas Brett Gabbert. That's not necessarily a bet on QB trio,
especially because Wilson's not gonna get much playing time. That
being said, the Bears have the type of quarterback rotation
that people like Caleb Williams Obviously something improved behind him,
Tyson Paging and case Keenum two veterans, all right. That
being said, see how much time those guys get. It
could be a lot of Austin Reid in this ballgame
for Chicago. I haven't seen the quote yet, but we're
gonna pay attention to what we hear about Austin Reid.
He was twelve of sixteen fo one hundred and twenty
three yards and one touchdown last August. So lots of
reports from Chicago about how the offense is.
Speaker 1: Struggling in Camp all right.
Speaker 4: Quote, the Bears are seventy five percent of the way
through installing Ben Johnson's new offense twelve total installs, with
the team aims to finish.
Speaker 1: By the end of next week.
Speaker 4: There's been progress for Caleb Williams quote, We've seen very
positive results from the pre snap stuff. It's from the
office of equator Declan Doyle. He's continuing to progress post snap.
And then on Sunday that was on Saturday's report. On Sunday,
they had multiple delay of game penalties and all kinds
of pre snap misuse. So the opfice didn't install yet.
The quarterbacks are struggling with a new offense. They're having
issues pre snap and they're having issues post snap. This
could be a cluster, you know, it really could be
for Chicago. That being said, there's urgency for the Bears
that there isn't for the Dolphins in this one, and
that certainly reflected perhaps in the big line move towards
Chicago from the open.
Speaker 3: All right, I want to just shout out everybody in
the comments section. We love you guys for hanging out
with us here on a beautiful Monday morning. Even over
on Acts, people are saying this is what they needed
to get their week going. LFG. You guys know what
that means, all right, Teddy, last game for Sunday, August tenth,
which is crazy. It's almost a week away four or
five pm Eastern here. New Orleans two point favorite, but
super book went down to one and a half there
since we started recording forty or exeason me forty this
Monday morning, guys, we're gonna have to have lots of
coffee this season. Thirty six is the total here, even
though this one opened up at thirty four and a half.
Speaker 2: But some QB battle that's gonna be going on in
New Orleans this year.
Speaker 3: I mean, this team is not favored in any games
all season long, but I have a feeling the preseason
could be interesting here, so.
Speaker 4: We should emergen you beting alert this game. New Orleans
gonna take the money, all right, They're already starting to
take the money, Tuliu. Saints are likely because of the
QB battle in New Orleans and because the Chargers played
last week and.
Speaker 1: Everything went so swimmingly for them. The urgency isn't there.
Speaker 4: I expect the Saints to take money. I would not
be surprised if they you know again, there's one and
a half's out there now. I don't think that'll be
that case all that much longer for New Orleans. So
this is in emergency betting alert territory in New Orleans
with two two and a half at the open thirty
four and a half.
Speaker 1: So another game where we've seen over money.
Speaker 4: Before I break this game down any further, though, I
do want to say, guys, we really appreciate all of
you watching live, all of you watching on replay. Obviously
the show gets a ton of us on replay. I
only ask for one thing. If you like the show,
hit that like button, thank you done, problem solve that
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course visit my page wt dot buzz backslash tc if
you want to get on board for a preseason package.
For a full season package, we got a great deal
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If you don't like me, there's lots of other cappers,
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involved with. When we talk about the Saints and the
Chargers and the QB rotations for this one, well, let's see,
this is a legitimate quarterback battle for New Orleans.
Speaker 1: Tyler Schuck versus Spendler, Rattler.
Speaker 4: Versus Jake Hayner. What them is going to be the
number one? One's gonna be the number two, one's gonna
be the number three. And there's no particular the pecking
order right now, so all three qbs have got to
show what they can do in August. Obviously have a
new coaching staff in New Orleans, so there's a fair
bit of urgency for them, and there's.
Speaker 1: No urgency for the charge.
Speaker 4: Harbor doesn't care and they're coming off a blowout winning
a game they didn't even want to play. So, like
I said, I do expect money to come for the Saints.
There's been a little money. I would not be surprised
that we see more. I'd be surprised that we don't
see more. And that's why we're we're see beting alert
New Orleans right now. If you want to get the Saints,
bet them sooner rather than later. In this better's opinion, and.
Speaker 3: You're gonna get all of Teddy's opinions this season. I'm
gonna try to chime in every once in a while,
but we are on a time crunch because right after
us is Wager Talk today, I'm going to be joining
in today talk about some of the Vegas contests. Teddy,
are you getting involved in any of those contests? I
know you've done well in seasons past.
Speaker 4: So I don't do any contests anymore, not a what,
and I'll tell you why. So I did a contest.
I think it was two or three year. So I
found that trying to pick five games was messing up
my head. And you're thinking about the contest and thinking
about what I can do for the clients, and really
it's not about picking five games a week. It's about
finding a handful of good bets. Most weeks I don't
have five bets for the clients. Same and the other
thing that I found that there was a I got
a lot of my play come football season, and the
last time I entered a contest, we missed a week.
I missed entering plays, and that's just just like throwing,
you know, throwing money away. I thought I was angry
with myself, and I said, I'm not doing this again
until I retire.
Speaker 1: So someday, when I retire, I'll do contests again. Not
in the modern era.
Speaker 4: I got too much shit going on, and contests aren't
my priorities. Not winning a stupid contest or a valuable contest,
or a great contest. That's night's talking points. My priorities
picking winners for the clients. That's what I gotta do.
Speaker 2: Love it, love it, love it, Teddy.
Speaker 3: I will see you bright and early next Monday morning
for preseason a week two. Good Luck to you, good
luck to me because I'm gonna be tailing you, And
good luck to all of you guys there at home.
We'll catch you guys out here soon. Teddy's got his
QR code on his cup. If you guys want to
put your phone right up to it, take you right
there to Teddy's homepage