1
00:00:04,839 --> 00:00:07,679
Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody. It is Monday. It's time

2
00:00:07,759 --> 00:00:12,919
for total basis extensive slate we have here today. This

3
00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:17,399
was clearly the Major League Baseball rain out sort of

4
00:00:17,519 --> 00:00:20,559
make up mutual off day, and I was just telling

5
00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:22,160
these guys we haven't had any rain here in the

6
00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:26,320
Northeast and months, so all the usual candidates for rain

7
00:00:26,359 --> 00:00:29,519
out that would be making up a game today are

8
00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,280
not playing. So it's left us with three games. So

9
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:34,920
what that means for you guys is we're gonna cover

10
00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:38,799
all the games easily, and it's probably a good day

11
00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:41,560
if you have any If you have any questions that

12
00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:46,079
are like futures related or like just general sort of

13
00:00:46,119 --> 00:00:50,880
betting questions, we can probably fit one in. But we're

14
00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:55,840
gonna just be kind of going through the slate. We're

15
00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:58,000
still gonna get a parlay out. I think we've kind

16
00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:01,079
of each agreed to take one game and still fire

17
00:01:01,119 --> 00:01:04,280
out our three teamer. So this is probably what the

18
00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:06,680
show is gonna be like come playoff time anyway, so

19
00:01:06,719 --> 00:01:08,519
we might as well give it a try and see

20
00:01:08,519 --> 00:01:10,920
how it goes. So, Brian Leonard, I'm gonna start with

21
00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:12,879
you right down the list. We're gonna get to all

22
00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:18,200
three games. First game is gonna be again not a

23
00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:19,840
whole lot of meaning here, so you're gonna have to

24
00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,560
find a good way in. But it's Nationals Braves, and

25
00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:27,319
it looks like we've got Mackenzie Gore, Chris Sales, So

26
00:01:27,359 --> 00:01:30,480
a couple of Southpaws going in Atlanta tonight. Do you

27
00:01:30,519 --> 00:01:32,319
see an angle into Nationals Braves.

28
00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:35,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a rematch to the last time this

29
00:01:35,239 --> 00:01:38,239
two teams pitched, and Chris Sale might need shutout innings

30
00:01:38,239 --> 00:01:41,480
of that game. Sale right now, and the Atlanta Braves

31
00:01:41,519 --> 00:01:44,079
a won eighth straight games. They're at home to finish

32
00:01:44,159 --> 00:01:47,760
off the season. They cannot still have a break given

33
00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:50,159
season they're still going to even if they sweep the

34
00:01:50,159 --> 00:01:51,840
rest of their games, I'll still have a losing year.

35
00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,560
But hey, this is a team that we rode off

36
00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:56,879
a long time ago. A lot of heart out of

37
00:01:56,879 --> 00:01:59,840
this Atlanta team, so I gotta give him some credit there.

38
00:02:00,079 --> 00:02:02,560
Come in about a two fifty favorite right here. Total

39
00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:06,879
is seven slightly to the over, and I am going

40
00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:08,879
to try to find a way to play the Washington

41
00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:12,240
Nationals in this game. In that game, the Sale through

42
00:02:12,479 --> 00:02:15,360
eight innings of shut out ball. Gore also through five

43
00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,960
innings of shut out ball. And if you take a

44
00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,159
look at what Gore has done on the season, comes

45
00:02:22,199 --> 00:02:24,680
in with a four run ERA four point one five

46
00:02:24,759 --> 00:02:28,280
expected one point three to two, whip, a lot of

47
00:02:28,319 --> 00:02:31,840
good extension, eighty five percentl strike out right eighty second

48
00:02:31,879 --> 00:02:35,439
with Rady eighty second. Is that Jackson velast. He's only

49
00:02:35,439 --> 00:02:39,039
in the eighteenth barrel eighteenth in hard hit twentieth means

50
00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:41,479
he can be hit. And he does throw a forty

51
00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:45,439
nine percent of his pitches as fastball, which is something

52
00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,080
you always have to take a look at. But if

53
00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:52,360
you take a look at the Washington bullpen today, they're

54
00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:55,479
in much better shape. I know they don't have a

55
00:02:55,599 --> 00:03:00,319
very good bullpen, but nobody pitched yesterday at all. They

56
00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,479
did have to use everybody just about on Saturday, and

57
00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,719
in fact, Foreer had to throw forty three pitches. He

58
00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,800
probably won't be available, but the rest of the guys will.

59
00:03:10,599 --> 00:03:14,599
And when you take a look at the Atlanta Braves bullpen,

60
00:03:14,759 --> 00:03:17,800
they're in really bad shape. In this one, they had

61
00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:23,719
the last let's just go down the list. Iglacias pitched

62
00:03:23,719 --> 00:03:26,439
the last two days. Kinley pitched two out of last

63
00:03:26,439 --> 00:03:31,120
three Lee the last two Johnson the last two, died

64
00:03:31,159 --> 00:03:33,840
the last two and Stratton too out the last three.

65
00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,080
So then we got to say, well, you know, they

66
00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:38,680
do have the really good pitcher on the mound to

67
00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,000
start the game, and they do. Chris Sale has been terrific.

68
00:03:41,719 --> 00:03:44,439
Comes in two point three five ERA two point seven

69
00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:48,599
three expected at one point seven whip and he's been

70
00:03:48,639 --> 00:03:51,360
really good at everything he does. But he's basically a

71
00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:53,319
two pitch pitcher right now, a slider and his four

72
00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:58,319
same great pitcher. Hate the situation here for Atlanta. I

73
00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:01,919
am going to play since the line is seven means

74
00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,159
the run line is worth a little bit more money

75
00:04:04,199 --> 00:04:07,240
than it normally does. I'm gonna say, Washington plus the

76
00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,479
one and a half looks like minus one oh five

77
00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:13,639
out there, So give me Washington plus one and a

78
00:04:13,719 --> 00:04:16,800
half minus one oh five in this game. It's gonna

79
00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:18,279
be there. We already know what's gonna be a low

80
00:04:18,319 --> 00:04:20,879
scored game to get that extra half a run for

81
00:04:20,959 --> 00:04:23,879
a team who's probably gonna bat nine times where the

82
00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:26,120
opponent only bats eight. I can't pass that up.

83
00:04:28,879 --> 00:04:33,120
Speaker 3: What's up, guys, Yeah, it's a Monday. Take a look

84
00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:35,199
at waygytalk dot com to see what we have up.

85
00:04:35,399 --> 00:04:38,920
I have one MLB play up right now. I'm sure

86
00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:43,079
these guys will or have already. Brian's right, this game

87
00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:47,199
doesn't really mean anything, but man Atlanta has. If Atlanta

88
00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:49,839
played like this to start the season, maybe they'd be

89
00:04:49,879 --> 00:04:52,639
playing for something right now. But they're red hot right now.

90
00:04:53,639 --> 00:04:56,120
One of the best pitchers on the mound, Mackenzie Gore,

91
00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,600
started the season a cy young candidate. He was in

92
00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,600
my top ten all starting pictures for the whole first

93
00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:05,519
half of the season, and then since the All Star

94
00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:09,800
break just dropped off a cliff. So on a curve

95
00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:12,600
of thirty, I have Chris Sayle rank three, and I

96
00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:16,360
have Mackenzie Gore rank seventeen out of all starting pictures

97
00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:21,560
curve of thirty, Washington's bullpen is worst in MLB in

98
00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:27,319
current form ranked thirty, where Atlanta's is ten, and hitting

99
00:05:27,319 --> 00:05:31,079
wise Atlanta's four and I got Washington twenty two. So

100
00:05:31,639 --> 00:05:33,319
I think Atlanta would be the only way to go

101
00:05:33,439 --> 00:05:38,319
for me. Odds are way too juicy to do that,

102
00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:40,439
So a minus one and a half for the Atlanta

103
00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:46,120
Braves maybe either that or a first five minus the

104
00:05:46,199 --> 00:05:49,279
half run perhaps would be how I would go on

105
00:05:49,319 --> 00:05:50,160
this if I bet it.

106
00:05:52,439 --> 00:05:52,639
Speaker 2: Yeah.

107
00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:55,639
Speaker 1: I have to say I was very much wrong about

108
00:05:55,639 --> 00:05:59,199
the Braves. I said on this show going into this

109
00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:02,480
month that they would probably roll over in September, that

110
00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:04,800
they really were just going to be the team that

111
00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,199
you would probably want to fade because I felt like

112
00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:09,279
it was veterans, they.

113
00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:10,079
Speaker 4: Had nothing to play for.

114
00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:12,920
Speaker 1: And the Atlanta Braves have won eight straight games now,

115
00:06:13,319 --> 00:06:17,439
it's not going to really really there's nothing of note

116
00:06:17,439 --> 00:06:20,800
to take away there. They've really been here to torment

117
00:06:20,879 --> 00:06:24,560
the Tigers more than anything. But credit to the Braves.

118
00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,079
I thought this team was gonna I just didn't see

119
00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,399
much of a reason for them to care show up

120
00:06:29,399 --> 00:06:31,560
to the ballpark to finish out this season, and they

121
00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:35,000
have won eight straight. I believe since the Guardians finally

122
00:06:35,079 --> 00:06:38,600
lost a game, this is now the longest active winning

123
00:06:38,639 --> 00:06:41,959
streak in the league. So they're playing, you know, they're

124
00:06:41,959 --> 00:06:45,720
playing good ball, I guess. Short term. That being said,

125
00:06:46,759 --> 00:06:48,639
I actually kind of look at this as a letdown

126
00:06:48,639 --> 00:06:51,680
spot for Atlanta a little bit, like I do think

127
00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,879
they were embracing the spoiler role a little bit the

128
00:06:54,959 --> 00:06:59,279
last couple of weeks, especially over the weekend. So this

129
00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:05,000
weekend they swept the Tigers. Brian Lenards happy about that somehow. Man,

130
00:07:05,199 --> 00:07:07,839
it definitely is a Monday. All my stuff just froze.

131
00:07:07,959 --> 00:07:11,759
I don't know how, Like all my screens just froze.

132
00:07:11,839 --> 00:07:15,279
I wanted to queue up the Braves win streak right

133
00:07:15,319 --> 00:07:18,120
here because I was gonna make a point, and everything froze. Okay,

134
00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,279
here we're back. So yes, they had the sweep of

135
00:07:21,319 --> 00:07:24,600
the Nationals in as part of that eight game winning streak,

136
00:07:24,639 --> 00:07:27,959
but the winning streak started against the Astros and then

137
00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,920
this weekend they went up to Detroit and won three

138
00:07:31,399 --> 00:07:34,439
three straight games. Now they come back home to play

139
00:07:34,439 --> 00:07:36,639
the Nationals again, who they just smacked around and beat

140
00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:38,839
four times in a row. So you have to ask yourself, like,

141
00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:41,240
for you know, is this a little bit of a

142
00:07:41,519 --> 00:07:43,639
kind of like not the best spot for the Braves.

143
00:07:43,839 --> 00:07:46,600
Speaker 4: Brian already pointed out the bullpen is very, very tired.

144
00:07:47,079 --> 00:07:49,720
Speaker 1: Last two days six to five win over the Tigers,

145
00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:53,480
six to two win yesterday used most of their leverage arms,

146
00:07:54,199 --> 00:07:58,319
so that's certainly a concern. The only concern I have

147
00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:01,920
for the Nats is they really don't line up well against.

148
00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:02,519
Speaker 4: Left handed pitching.

149
00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:08,199
Speaker 1: So I'm assuming this total is what's the total here

150
00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:08,759
is its seven.

151
00:08:09,279 --> 00:08:10,759
Speaker 4: I don't think I could get Yeah, I don't.

152
00:08:10,759 --> 00:08:12,360
Speaker 1: I don't think I could get down with the seven,

153
00:08:12,639 --> 00:08:14,480
But I do think it might be a low scoring game,

154
00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:16,839
So I think I'll roll with Brian here.

155
00:08:17,839 --> 00:08:20,600
Speaker 4: NAT's plus one and a half does make some sense.

156
00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,439
Speaker 1: You get the extrat that I'm not gonna give Atlanta

157
00:08:23,879 --> 00:08:28,079
like a huge bump for being at home in a

158
00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:31,519
game that's like just doesn't have much meaning. I don't

159
00:08:31,519 --> 00:08:33,559
think they're gonna have a ton of juice in the ballpark.

160
00:08:34,039 --> 00:08:36,120
The bravest thirty six and thirty nine at home this

161
00:08:36,159 --> 00:08:39,080
season not much different than what they are on the road.

162
00:08:40,279 --> 00:08:43,080
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think Brian's kind of nailed this one.

163
00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,120
Speaker 1: Nats plus one and a half definitely getting good line

164
00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,440
value with the visitors, the extra at bat, the run

165
00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:53,759
to work with, So so yeah, I could see that

166
00:08:53,799 --> 00:08:57,519
being being the right side. This is an interesting question,

167
00:08:58,039 --> 00:09:02,039
Memphis money. Do you guys pay for sites to help

168
00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:04,720
with your capping? That's it, I said, I just saw

169
00:09:04,759 --> 00:09:06,320
this in the chat, and I think this is very

170
00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:10,679
interesting because I think I think people want to know this.

171
00:09:10,759 --> 00:09:12,559
Speaker 4: They've asked me from time to time.

172
00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:17,039
Speaker 1: Uh my answer is absolutely if I if I find

173
00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:22,039
something like, and this is maybe more so for college basketball, Like,

174
00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,159
let's put it this way. If I find a product

175
00:09:24,279 --> 00:09:28,600
that's typically a numbers sort of based product that's going

176
00:09:28,639 --> 00:09:31,639
to help me generate like a baseline or a projection

177
00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:35,120
or or or something to go off of, I will.

178
00:09:35,159 --> 00:09:37,080
Speaker 4: It doesn't matter what it costs. I'm happy to pay it.

179
00:09:37,519 --> 00:09:39,480
Speaker 1: The nice thing is for baseball, a lot of that

180
00:09:39,519 --> 00:09:41,960
stuff is free. A lot of like the best stuff

181
00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:47,480
out there for MLB fan graphs that you know, a

182
00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:50,320
lot of that stuff is free. College basketball, they figured

183
00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:52,919
out how to monetize it. Everything costs money. But yes,

184
00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:57,240
if I think it's going to potentially help me generate

185
00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:01,440
a number, then I'll do it. So I'll throw it

186
00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:04,639
to you guys, because there's no Yeah. I mean, I

187
00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:07,120
think the answer is yes, if it's a good enough product.

188
00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,360
The problem is there's a lot of bad products out there.

189
00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:14,440
Speaker 2: Yeah. I spent a lot of money on it. I

190
00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:18,519
played fantasy Baseball, so I pay for fantasy websites that

191
00:10:18,639 --> 00:10:23,080
give you more detailed analysis. I pay for pitching websites

192
00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:27,879
that tell me what changes the pitchers are making. I

193
00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:33,879
paid Fangraphs. I've talked about that park all park pal website.

194
00:10:33,879 --> 00:10:35,759
There's a lot of them out there that I gladly

195
00:10:35,759 --> 00:10:38,720
pay for because it saves me time and money, and

196
00:10:38,759 --> 00:10:41,200
that gives me more time to handicap the games and

197
00:10:41,279 --> 00:10:44,080
search for the best lines possible. And it's just not

198
00:10:44,159 --> 00:10:47,639
in baseball, it's for other sports too. And I've also

199
00:10:47,799 --> 00:10:51,279
in the past bought plays from other handicappers that handicap

200
00:10:51,399 --> 00:10:54,720
something that I don't and that way gives me another edge.

201
00:10:54,799 --> 00:10:56,360
Or you know, I'm not going to release the place

202
00:10:56,440 --> 00:11:00,720
like some people do, but I uh that. Yeah, there

203
00:11:00,799 --> 00:11:03,399
are people to do that, but I will use it

204
00:11:03,519 --> 00:11:06,440
for my betting. And if you know, I bought back

205
00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,399
before I started handicapping hockey, I bought hockey plays from

206
00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:11,320
other guys that had success in the past because I

207
00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:14,840
didn't handicap it. I don't follow soccer, but if I

208
00:11:14,919 --> 00:11:17,759
did a little bit, i'd probably buy some. We got

209
00:11:17,799 --> 00:11:20,159
some good soccer guys on the site. I'd buy those two.

210
00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,159
So yeah, I'm just like everybody else. I'm trying to

211
00:11:23,159 --> 00:11:25,080
get the biggest edges I can and trying to win

212
00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:27,200
as much money I can on a daily basis, and

213
00:11:27,279 --> 00:11:29,480
all these things add up and saves me time and money.

214
00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:35,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I pay for fangrafts. And also there's a Japanese

215
00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,879
site that I pay to get all the statistics for

216
00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:43,080
Japanese baseball. It's in Japanese, but in this day and age,

217
00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,840
it's very easy to convert if you can't read Japanese.

218
00:11:45,879 --> 00:11:47,919
But I'd leave it in Japanese. Its just do it

219
00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,159
that way. Yeah, there's a couple.

220
00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:52,000
Speaker 4: Yeah.

221
00:11:52,039 --> 00:11:54,320
Speaker 1: And for me, especially when it comes to like once college,

222
00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:56,799
who gets here and stuff, if I can find some

223
00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,679
if I I like, because there's so it's almost like

224
00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:01,759
there's a new one every day and then and then

225
00:12:01,799 --> 00:12:03,960
the thing you have to really be careful with is

226
00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:07,480
like what is their import data or what data are

227
00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:11,159
they inputting to get, you know, like what they're what

228
00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:14,000
they're saying or something. For me, it's like if I

229
00:12:14,039 --> 00:12:16,120
can find stuff that I don't think the books are

230
00:12:16,159 --> 00:12:19,159
pricing into the number, like that is super valuable. That's

231
00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,279
that's the kind of info I want, Like it's you know,

232
00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:24,759
so for me, like man, if if there was something

233
00:12:24,799 --> 00:12:28,120
that was just like just really really good up to

234
00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:31,240
data like following injury type stuff, I would pay for

235
00:12:31,279 --> 00:12:34,440
that in a heartbeat. My buddy Corby and I tend

236
00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:38,360
to do it on our own and like just he's

237
00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:39,480
message people on.

238
00:12:39,399 --> 00:12:42,200
Speaker 4: Instagram before players, hey are you playing tonight?

239
00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:45,360
Speaker 1: It actually and we've gotten responses believe it or not,

240
00:12:45,399 --> 00:12:50,279
but yeah, any Nan says aiss access to all staff

241
00:12:50,279 --> 00:12:50,960
based websites.

242
00:12:51,039 --> 00:12:53,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, I I did not. I was.

243
00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:55,720
Speaker 1: I'm not an early adapter to AI, but like our

244
00:12:55,759 --> 00:12:59,080
one of our bosses, Johnny Detroit, has been sort of

245
00:12:59,159 --> 00:13:01,919
talking about AI for years and and the stuff that

246
00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:06,840
it does is absolutely terrifying. How how much info you

247
00:13:06,879 --> 00:13:09,200
can just sort of get if you know what to

248
00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,120
put in AI, it spits out. You're like, oh wow,

249
00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:16,720
that's like accurate. It took two seconds. You're shaking your head. Brian, Yeah,

250
00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:18,120
that's scary. It's it's scary.

251
00:13:18,159 --> 00:13:23,279
Speaker 2: How I've got my brother in law since retired, but

252
00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,159
he was shot in the in the UH in duty

253
00:13:26,159 --> 00:13:28,399
when he was a cop, and I just got on

254
00:13:28,879 --> 00:13:30,519
just tell me about blah blah blah blah and what

255
00:13:31,039 --> 00:13:34,000
and it came back and he was just amazed and

256
00:13:34,039 --> 00:13:37,120
they knew so much about him and the incident. It's

257
00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:42,720
just it's it's very easy to do. But unfortunately, uh,

258
00:13:43,159 --> 00:13:44,919
maybe going a little bit too fast for us. But Hey,

259
00:13:44,919 --> 00:13:47,080
I won't be around when all that happens anyway, so

260
00:13:47,879 --> 00:13:51,000
but we'll, uh, there's a lot of good information out there.

261
00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:54,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is like probably the best point Steve.

262
00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,000
Steve makes a really good point here, garbage and garbage out.

263
00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:01,200
You have to you have to know what info is

264
00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,000
going in and sort of like how you're evaluating it.

265
00:14:04,039 --> 00:14:06,879
And that's why I'll never be like a quote unquote

266
00:14:07,399 --> 00:14:10,360
just numbers handicapper. I'm always just gonna use them as

267
00:14:10,399 --> 00:14:15,159
a starting point because it's it's very difficult to just

268
00:14:15,279 --> 00:14:18,320
trust numbers. And in my opinion, like you can have

269
00:14:18,399 --> 00:14:20,600
the number, it can give you a starting point, but

270
00:14:20,639 --> 00:14:22,840
I've I've got to be able to like talk myself

271
00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:26,000
into a side or it's got to make sense for me,

272
00:14:26,639 --> 00:14:28,159
or I can't bet it, whereas I do think a

273
00:14:28,159 --> 00:14:29,919
lot of people just are like, well, my number is this,

274
00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,320
so this is a bet. I can never That'll never

275
00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:34,759
be me. I just I can't wrap my head around

276
00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:37,840
just doing that. But Yeah, for a great point by Steve.

277
00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:39,679
And that was a very good question. I you know,

278
00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,440
I was kind of like told myself today, you know,

279
00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,399
because we've got some extra time, I was gonna look

280
00:14:44,399 --> 00:14:46,320
in the chat and if there was something interesting, I

281
00:14:46,399 --> 00:14:48,799
was going to uh bring it up. That was a

282
00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,279
great question. I think Memphis Money asked that. That was

283
00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:55,200
a really good question right there. All right, and if

284
00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,279
you have any other ones, like I said, we're you know,

285
00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,360
we've got a little extra time today, we'll hit them.

286
00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:03,320
In the meantime, let's go to game number two. We

287
00:15:03,519 --> 00:15:07,360
are headed out west. It's going to be so it

288
00:15:07,399 --> 00:15:10,840
looks to be like they definitely scheduled a couple games

289
00:15:10,879 --> 00:15:12,440
in places that they didn't think it was going to

290
00:15:12,519 --> 00:15:14,720
rain because I'm telling you, like this was clearly like

291
00:15:14,799 --> 00:15:16,960
the day where it's like, Okay, if you have a

292
00:15:17,039 --> 00:15:18,799
rain out, we can't get it in. You're gonna have

293
00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,720
to go play today. And so the other two games

294
00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:26,320
are West Coast, nice beautiful San Diego, probably not getting

295
00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:31,279
many rainouts of Petco Park. So it's Brewers, Padres, Freddy Peralta,

296
00:15:31,639 --> 00:15:33,320
Nick Poveta kick us off, Brian Letter.

297
00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,600
Speaker 2: First off, I think you're giving the Major League Baseball

298
00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:38,840
schedule maker too much credit. We've seen that.

299
00:15:39,679 --> 00:15:41,480
Speaker 1: Do they still do it by hand? Didn't they do

300
00:15:41,519 --> 00:15:42,720
it by hand for a long time?

301
00:15:43,559 --> 00:15:46,440
Speaker 2: They had used a couple I believe a moment and

302
00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:49,240
a man married couple did it for a lot of years.

303
00:15:49,679 --> 00:15:53,759
But yeah, if they do something right, it's probably luck

304
00:15:54,519 --> 00:15:57,679
involved because they put up games against Monday night football

305
00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:02,000
and these other things. And yeah, anyway, Paralton Paveta to

306
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:06,320
the guys. You know, they're in the cy Young category

307
00:16:07,399 --> 00:16:09,200
and they're fighting for VOTs. They're not going to win,

308
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,960
but they both having really good seasons, and congratulations to

309
00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,480
both of them, especially san Diego who got Veta for

310
00:16:15,559 --> 00:16:19,240
virtually nothing in the off season. Great great signing for them.

311
00:16:19,279 --> 00:16:22,679
But Paralta and Paveta too, if you guys have great seasons.

312
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,080
We've got Paveta here at about a one nineteen one

313
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:29,279
twenty favorite and you've got Peralta about seven on the total,

314
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,840
slightly to the over Keep in mind Milwaukee has now

315
00:16:32,879 --> 00:16:37,080
clinched their spot. Not that they're not going to try

316
00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:40,559
the rest of the season, but they're stuck where they're at.

317
00:16:40,639 --> 00:16:43,080
They were one hundred percent in. The Cubs are stuck

318
00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:45,759
where they're at. They're one hundred percent in. No changes

319
00:16:45,879 --> 00:16:49,399
going on there, so we will see some changes in Milwaukee.

320
00:16:49,519 --> 00:16:51,480
I know they were going to put Menzerowski in the

321
00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:56,039
bullpen and unfortunately they just had the injury to Woodriffs,

322
00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:57,799
so now they may not be able to do that,

323
00:16:58,039 --> 00:17:00,480
but they've got so many guys in the mind that

324
00:17:00,759 --> 00:17:03,960
could pitch in the playoffs. They're pretty goods, still in

325
00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,160
pretty good shape. But it's it's sad to see would

326
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,440
have come all this way back and now not be

327
00:17:08,519 --> 00:17:11,559
able to likely pitch in the playoffs. We're all to

328
00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,400
two point sixty five ERA three point three one expected

329
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:17,839
one point oh seven whip. The only thing is is

330
00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,519
walk rate's a little a little high in the twenty

331
00:17:20,519 --> 00:17:23,440
six percentile only in the ground ball rate. But he

332
00:17:23,559 --> 00:17:27,559
tends to pitch towards if it's if it's the guy

333
00:17:27,599 --> 00:17:30,240
that gets he thinks he can just put him on,

334
00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:32,640
he'll go to the next guy. And it seems to

335
00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:34,960
have worked out something well for him in his career.

336
00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,039
Nick Pavetta two point eight one ERA A three point

337
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,599
nine five expected zero point ninety seven whip. If you

338
00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:44,440
take a look at his stat gas bag, it really

339
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:47,480
does not show that he has been that good this year.

340
00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:49,440
In fact, the last two years he was four point

341
00:17:49,519 --> 00:17:52,359
one four and four point oh four eras and the

342
00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:56,400
whips were much higher. His barrel rates ten percentile, hard

343
00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,599
hit rate sixteenth percentle ground ball rate tenth percent, hele

344
00:18:00,079 --> 00:18:03,559
amag jaxa velocity twenty second. He's begin hit pretty well

345
00:18:03,599 --> 00:18:06,480
this year. Now he does throw six different pitches. That

346
00:18:06,599 --> 00:18:09,680
helps sens an eighty fifth percentile. Streak out and walk

347
00:18:09,759 --> 00:18:12,920
rates are good. But when you see a guy with

348
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,000
a two point eight one you already with one hundred

349
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:16,720
and seventy six innings, you'd like to see a little

350
00:18:16,759 --> 00:18:19,519
bit more red on a stackcast page, which tells me

351
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,279
he may be a little bit overrated coming into this game.

352
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:26,319
So there may be some value on Milwaukee, But do

353
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:29,160
you really want to play the Brewers when they've just clinched.

354
00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:33,400
They've had their party. And I do like the way

355
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,720
the manager thinks he puts in a lot of guys

356
00:18:35,759 --> 00:18:38,119
all season long, gives him a lot of breaks. I

357
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:41,200
doubt if we will see some of the veterans in

358
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:44,880
today's game, and so that's a concern. So I'm not

359
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:47,279
finding any value here. But maybe one of you will

360
00:18:47,319 --> 00:18:49,680
be able to get selfa get us part of a

361
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:50,440
parly bet here.

362
00:18:52,519 --> 00:18:56,200
Speaker 3: Yeah. I don't know why the Brewers are underdogs, but

363
00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:59,119
probably the only reason would be because they're not really

364
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:02,319
playing for anything in San Diego is these guys are

365
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:07,759
human beings, and you know, urgency is a little thing there.

366
00:19:07,799 --> 00:19:12,079
You know, there's a difference between having your spot already

367
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:16,240
secured and going out there and hitting and hitting in

368
00:19:16,279 --> 00:19:18,799
the bottom of the ninth with two outs and bases loaded.

369
00:19:18,839 --> 00:19:22,319
It's a big difference inside your head. So these guys

370
00:19:22,319 --> 00:19:25,920
are human beings. No urgency for Milwaukee, but they're still

371
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,920
very talented and these guys do care a lot about

372
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:34,599
their own stats. They do this, they use this in

373
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:40,920
negotiating new contracts, and so if the starters are out there,

374
00:19:41,079 --> 00:19:43,319
they're going to be trying their darness to hit the ball.

375
00:19:43,519 --> 00:19:46,839
Granted they will have almost no urgency to do so.

376
00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:51,799
The Padres, despite being in an urgent situation or playing

377
00:19:51,839 --> 00:19:56,480
like Doggie, do they look awful. They just look terrible.

378
00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,119
This team looks like a team. This team looks like

379
00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,559
they're in the position at the Atlanta Braves, and they're

380
00:20:01,599 --> 00:20:08,119
playing awful. Despite having extremely high level talent in their

381
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:12,200
lineup and extremely talented bullpen and a pretty good rotation.

382
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,160
These guys are just playing awful. And I don't know

383
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:19,240
how to explain why Pavetta has looked great this year,

384
00:20:19,279 --> 00:20:23,960
but against these Brewer batters, he does not look very good.

385
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:28,240
He's got sixty three at bats against. He's got a

386
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:31,359
three to seventeen average against them, a nine to thirty

387
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,799
four ops against, which is really bad. Probata has great

388
00:20:34,839 --> 00:20:38,799
stats against these padres, a one to twenty five average

389
00:20:38,799 --> 00:20:41,799
against in a four point fifty four OPS. So I'd

390
00:20:41,839 --> 00:20:45,200
like to play Milwaukee, but I can't given the fact

391
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,480
that they're not really playing for anything. But I do

392
00:20:49,039 --> 00:20:52,000
want to play their team total somehow. Maybe a team

393
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:56,640
total over first five innings over one and a half

394
00:20:56,720 --> 00:21:00,200
would be a pretty good bet. I'll think about king

395
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:05,200
Milwaukee my parlay my parlay leg maybe plus one and

396
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:08,319
a half with Milwaukee. It'll probably be quite juiced, but

397
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,559
since it's the parlay leg, I think I could. I

398
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:15,480
think I could do that. I think even if they lose,

399
00:21:15,519 --> 00:21:17,319
I think they're not going to lose by a big margin.

400
00:21:17,599 --> 00:21:20,519
So I think Milwaukee plus one and a half will

401
00:21:20,519 --> 00:21:21,720
be my parlay leg for this.

402
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,799
Speaker 2: You're laying about two on that, Yeah.

403
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 3: I figured it would be bad. I'll consider that. I'll

404
00:21:30,319 --> 00:21:31,000
think about that.

405
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,599
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm actually gonna bump you to the

406
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,359
to the last game. Well, I'm gonna take Brewers. Money

407
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,799
line here, I'm just that so you'll get the last game,

408
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,920
I think. So my whole thing is I agree with

409
00:21:44,039 --> 00:21:45,720
a lot of what you said, and I'm just gonna

410
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,240
I'm just gonna make your decision easy and take Brewers.

411
00:21:49,279 --> 00:21:51,640
Speaker 4: What are we looking at like plus one ten or so?

412
00:21:52,079 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 2: Plus one on?

413
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:53,839
Speaker 1: Where are we at.

414
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,279
Speaker 2: Bruis maybe one of eight or so. But yeah, So

415
00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:57,759
what I.

416
00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,920
Speaker 4: Don't understand here is why why now?

417
00:22:00,039 --> 00:22:00,200
Speaker 2: Out?

418
00:22:00,839 --> 00:22:03,359
Speaker 1: Why now? Is suddenly like the Brewers have been locked

419
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,599
into this spot for weeks? Really, I mean yeah, so

420
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,519
maybe they rest a couple guys. They've been doing that

421
00:22:09,559 --> 00:22:13,480
for weeks and everyone plays. So to me, to me,

422
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:17,359
the odds like nothing that this is no different than

423
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,400
the spot the Brewers have been in for the past

424
00:22:20,519 --> 00:22:23,839
three weeks. Essentially they've had they've they've had the Division

425
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:27,440
one for weeks. They've essentially been the best team in

426
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:31,480
the National League for weeks. So it's like, I don't

427
00:22:31,559 --> 00:22:34,359
understand why now they're suddenly like, oh, we're just gonna

428
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,000
price them like they don't care. It's like, well, they've

429
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:41,160
been playing, they've essentially been in this same situation for

430
00:22:41,279 --> 00:22:44,000
like the past couple of weeks, they've still played pretty

431
00:22:44,039 --> 00:22:47,480
good balls. Last ten games six and four to today's

432
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,079
game is no different than any of the last ten

433
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,480
games for the Brewers, even if something to quote unquote

434
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,400
official now the Cubs have had zero shot at that

435
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:59,279
division for a month, so that's that's irrelevant. I don't

436
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,839
really think they're a huge difference between finishing with the

437
00:23:02,839 --> 00:23:04,720
best record in the NL and the second best record.

438
00:23:04,839 --> 00:23:07,559
I think we, as like people that evaluate the league

439
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,200
care about that more than the players do. I think

440
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,279
it's more or less like, oh yeah, if we finish

441
00:23:12,319 --> 00:23:13,279
with the best record.

442
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:13,640
Speaker 4: It's nice.

443
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,039
Speaker 1: But it's just not something that's like, you know, I

444
00:23:16,079 --> 00:23:17,599
don't think they're going out there like we got to

445
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:19,880
hold the Phillies off. I just don't think that's how

446
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:23,119
these teams think. I think, again, if it happens, it's great.

447
00:23:23,599 --> 00:23:25,640
So I just think you're gonna get the same effort

448
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:28,480
you've gotten from the Brewers game in and game out,

449
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,400
which has been very very good. Team is ninety five?

450
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,359
Where do they go? Ninety five and sixty one a

451
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,079
one to eighty one plus what eighty one run differential?

452
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,440
Forty five? And thirty three against good teams. Those are

453
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,559
above five hundred teams. That's what the Padres are still.

454
00:23:43,799 --> 00:23:45,720
You know, whether they've been playing good or not. I

455
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,720
mean they've played better over the weekend. They won both

456
00:23:47,759 --> 00:23:50,759
of their weekend games after losing the opening to the

457
00:23:50,759 --> 00:23:53,160
White Sox. Although I do agree with Tokyo brand and

458
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:57,079
they haven't. I haven't exactly been impressed with Padres baseball

459
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,079
in a while. I think every once in a while

460
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,960
to win a game or two, but the overall sort

461
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,519
of like what I'm watching on the field is is

462
00:24:05,079 --> 00:24:07,240
he's right in the respect it doesn't match up to

463
00:24:07,279 --> 00:24:09,039
the talent they have in that organization.

464
00:24:09,759 --> 00:24:11,079
Speaker 4: Then you come to this matchup.

465
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,079
Speaker 1: I still think of getting the better arm in Peralta,

466
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,680
and the Padres used some pen the last couple of

467
00:24:16,759 --> 00:24:19,119
days to close out those two games against the White Sox.

468
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 4: So the price is just off, like what happens will happen.

469
00:24:23,039 --> 00:24:24,799
Speaker 1: But I just don't think you should like I just

470
00:24:24,799 --> 00:24:26,799
don't think the Brewers should be plus one ten here,

471
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,119
and I feel like the reason they're plus one ten

472
00:24:29,519 --> 00:24:32,559
is because this mindset that like, oh okay, there's nothing

473
00:24:32,599 --> 00:24:34,960
to play for yet they haven't had anything to play

474
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,160
for for three weeks. So I'm going to make my

475
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,759
parlay lake Brewers plus one ten, And I think you

476
00:24:40,759 --> 00:24:42,960
guys agree with me anyway, So I feel like I

477
00:24:43,039 --> 00:24:50,160
made your decision easy there TV yep, oh all right,

478
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,839
And I think there was a point that turnbuckle Toby,

479
00:24:53,839 --> 00:24:55,319
where did it go? He made a good point about

480
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,839
the pricing in this game. He said, what do you

481
00:24:57,880 --> 00:24:59,359
think about the Brewers at plus Buddy? Well, I just

482
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:05,119
gave my there. But yeah, they're they're they're slight. They're

483
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,000
minus one o five for the first five plus one

484
00:25:08,039 --> 00:25:12,039
o five for the full game. That's also interesting because

485
00:25:12,039 --> 00:25:14,480
the full game sets up better for the Brewers. I

486
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,519
think the Brewers bullpen sets up a little bit better

487
00:25:16,519 --> 00:25:18,200
than the Padres does here.

488
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:18,839
Speaker 4: Based on usage.

489
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think there's a lot of value from

490
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:25,079
a straight value number standpoint, Brewers plus one ten makes

491
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:26,599
a lot of sense in my opinion.

492
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 4: And again Sean makes the point.

493
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:31,640
Speaker 1: But like we kind of we kind of talk about

494
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,200
this a lot, like the whole need to win, have

495
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,119
to win, as Brian Leonard says, if you need to

496
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,079
win at this point in the year, you weren't that

497
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,160
good in the first place. I still think the Padres

498
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,279
are a good team, but and he's saying, yeah, like

499
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:47,920
Milwaukee Pops and Bottles last night. Yeah, I still don't

500
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,599
think they should be an underdog here. So again, not

501
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,599
the best slate, but uh, I'll take them plus money.

502
00:25:53,839 --> 00:25:56,599
Still think they're a better team than the Padres, and

503
00:25:57,079 --> 00:26:00,480
the setup is good enough for plus one ten. Okay,

504
00:26:01,799 --> 00:26:02,359
let's go to.

505
00:26:02,319 --> 00:26:03,400
Speaker 4: The last game again.

506
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:07,759
Speaker 1: If you have a just a general question, well, we're

507
00:26:07,759 --> 00:26:09,640
happy to hit it here in the last half hours.

508
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,039
So we do have one more game to talk about.

509
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,759
This will be Tokyo Brandon's parlay leg so I'll let

510
00:26:15,799 --> 00:26:19,759
Brian start us off in San Francisco, a team that

511
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,519
I guess is still still in the mix, at least

512
00:26:22,559 --> 00:26:25,839
for now, three games out of that last wild card spot,

513
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,359
although there's a bunch of traffic ahead of them, so

514
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,720
I don't know if they can overcome that, but they

515
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,440
are three back. They did win yesterday, and so I

516
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,440
guess you would call this a must win for the

517
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:37,759
Giants at home against the Cardinals.

518
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 4: How are you seeing this one?

519
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 2: San Francisco currently with a zero point two percent chance

520
00:26:42,519 --> 00:26:46,279
to make the playoffs. Yeah, we've got San Francisco, mcgravy

521
00:26:46,319 --> 00:26:49,680
and Verlander. Yeah, San Francisco is about a one forty

522
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:53,759
five favorite total seven and a half over twenty eight

523
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:58,319
under one fifteen or so. First thing that pops out

524
00:26:58,319 --> 00:27:03,200
of me about this game. We've got Gore and Sale

525
00:27:03,599 --> 00:27:08,359
with a total of seven, Oralta and Paveda with a

526
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,680
total of seven. McGreevy and Verland are total seven and

527
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:17,480
a half. That's too low. I mean, I know Verlander's

528
00:27:17,519 --> 00:27:20,440
pitching well right now, and mcgreevy's a guy I like.

529
00:27:20,559 --> 00:27:24,279
But granted, San Francisco don't runs don't come very easy,

530
00:27:24,279 --> 00:27:26,279
but they don't cover very easy in San Diego either,

531
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:28,799
And we're getting this line at seven and a half

532
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,400
over twenty. To me, if I were to play this game,

533
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:35,200
I would play the over. We're taking a look at

534
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,839
here at McGreevy four point oh eight era four point

535
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,720
four to seven expected at one point two whip if

536
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:47,359
if Stack has Page is really interesting because the fastball

537
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:51,839
velocity ex fastball velocity, whiff strikeout relates are really low,

538
00:27:52,559 --> 00:27:56,119
but his walk rate's really good, barrel rate, hard hit rate,

539
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,559
ground ball rate, and extension really hot. He's a hard

540
00:27:59,559 --> 00:28:02,359
guy to feel figure out. He throws seven pitches, which

541
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:04,720
is if you locked watching me in the past. I

542
00:28:04,759 --> 00:28:07,559
love young guys that don't depend on one pitch is

543
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,440
twenty five percent. He throws the most overall, so he

544
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:16,559
really uses every pitch he's got. Justin Erlander, who would

545
00:28:16,559 --> 00:28:19,640
have thought three point seventy five ERA at this time

546
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,160
of the year three and ten record? Last year he

547
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,119
had one point seven to five higher ERA and he

548
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,400
went five and six. Just tells you wins and losses

549
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:31,039
don't mean anything. But anyway, ERA three point seven five,

550
00:28:31,079 --> 00:28:33,799
ERA four point one five expected one point three four

551
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:38,160
whip on his stack gass Page. Ground ball rates terrible

552
00:28:38,359 --> 00:28:43,079
at twelve percent. Extension is terrible at fourteen percent, but

553
00:28:43,279 --> 00:28:46,319
it's you don't have hit too many home runs in

554
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:50,920
San Francisco, so that hasn't affected him. Everything else he's

555
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,279
hard to ranged seventy four percent. Everything else is basically

556
00:28:53,359 --> 00:28:56,319
league average. It's a little bit lower. So he's pitched

557
00:28:56,319 --> 00:28:59,359
better than what we've thought. But do you take the

558
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,160
small sam size for Orlander? Or do you take the

559
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:06,440
large sample size? Saint Louis isn't a bad hitting team.

560
00:29:06,559 --> 00:29:09,319
They've got their third basement back now. I like the

561
00:29:09,319 --> 00:29:11,079
alver in this game over that seven and a half

562
00:29:11,079 --> 00:29:13,279
of mich one twenty to me is a bargain if

563
00:29:13,319 --> 00:29:14,720
you're gonna play a total. I think this is the

564
00:29:14,799 --> 00:29:17,759
nicest total on the board. We'll see what TV has

565
00:29:17,799 --> 00:29:20,160
to say.

566
00:29:20,279 --> 00:29:25,759
Speaker 3: So both of these teams are playing pretty poorly right now.

567
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,880
I've got San Francis. San Francisco is one of the

568
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:34,839
only teams in MLB that I have ranked twenty fifth

569
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:39,440
or worse in both hitting and bullpen So they're not

570
00:29:39,559 --> 00:29:41,720
playing very well. They're not playing like a team that

571
00:29:41,799 --> 00:29:45,559
still has a possibility of making the playoffs, although they

572
00:29:45,559 --> 00:29:49,720
pretty much don't have a possibility after last week that

573
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:53,519
they played just so awfully last week and kind of

574
00:29:53,559 --> 00:29:58,200
lost their chance. In my opinion. St. Louis playing better actually,

575
00:29:58,279 --> 00:30:01,200
and although they don't have much to play for, they're

576
00:30:01,279 --> 00:30:04,200
ranked higher in batting and bullpening current form right now.

577
00:30:05,799 --> 00:30:09,640
McGreevy and Ferlander, Yeah, I got them both ranked pretty

578
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:11,839
much neck and neck. I got them both ranked eighteen

579
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,000
out on a curve of thirty, So neither one is

580
00:30:15,039 --> 00:30:21,880
really putting fear into their opponents. Looking at very Lander's

581
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,519
last few games, though he's pitched quite well, he's only

582
00:30:24,519 --> 00:30:27,640
given up one earned run in his last three starts.

583
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:32,559
That's pretty impressive. McGreevy in his last three starts has

584
00:30:32,599 --> 00:30:36,599
given up seven, but one of those was a six

585
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:42,440
a six burger against these San Francisco Giants, So what

586
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,000
does that say. Well, I doubt he's going to give

587
00:30:45,079 --> 00:30:48,400
up six runs in two games in a row against

588
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,200
the same team. A lot of people say the second

589
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,519
matchup favors the hitters, but I don't know if I

590
00:30:54,559 --> 00:30:56,920
buy into that so much, because the pitcher gets to

591
00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:00,000
know the batters as well, and the pitcher's the one

592
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:02,279
has to do more thinking than the batter, So I

593
00:31:02,319 --> 00:31:06,000
don't know. I think second matchup pretty even depends on

594
00:31:06,039 --> 00:31:09,000
who the picture is. In my opinion, I'm gonna take

595
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,119
Saint Louis plus one and a half for my Parlay

596
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,000
Lake here. I think I think even if Saint Louis loses,

597
00:31:15,039 --> 00:31:16,799
I think it'll be a tight game because they have

598
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:18,839
the better bullpen and they have the better hitting in

599
00:31:18,839 --> 00:31:22,839
my opinion, so uh yeah, I'll take Saint Louis plus

600
00:31:22,839 --> 00:31:25,200
one and a half for my Haarley leg here. I

601
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,279
think mcgreevy's pitching a little better than his stats show.

602
00:31:30,799 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 2: I'm very happy on that.

603
00:31:34,559 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm very happy with how the parlay came out.

604
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:39,359
If you were like, hey, Trey, give me a three

605
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:42,400
team or for today, I would have picked all your

606
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:44,720
guys legs. I would have said Nats plus one and

607
00:31:44,759 --> 00:31:47,720
a half, Brewers and Cardinals and Cardinals.

608
00:31:49,599 --> 00:31:53,079
Speaker 3: Underdogs. Yeah, but underdogs are winning lately. It's it's weird,

609
00:31:53,119 --> 00:31:55,680
but in MLB, a lot of underdogs are winning lately.

610
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,279
Speaker 1: Yeah. I just think there's a there's a high level

611
00:31:59,279 --> 00:32:02,440
of randomness at this point in the season, and a

612
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,519
lot of these games, I mean, we are in the

613
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,039
home stretch for a lot of these teams, and and

614
00:32:07,279 --> 00:32:09,160
I just think that there's not as big of a

615
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,240
difference between favored or underdogs. So you know, you're you're

616
00:32:12,319 --> 00:32:14,960
probably getting much better bang for your buck on the

617
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,279
dogs in a lot of these cases. As far as

618
00:32:17,279 --> 00:32:19,759
this matchup's concerned, I talked about so I made a

619
00:32:19,799 --> 00:32:22,519
four percent best bet on the Cardinals last time a

620
00:32:22,519 --> 00:32:25,720
grievy pitch he went out shut down the Reds. He's

621
00:32:25,759 --> 00:32:28,519
a guy that I'm I'm very high on going into

622
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:32,480
next year. I think I think he is is very

623
00:32:32,519 --> 00:32:35,599
close to figuring it out, and he may and last start,

624
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,720
his last time out may have been was was kind

625
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:41,240
of for me, like okay, like he he sort of

626
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,079
really like understands what he wants to do now. Brian

627
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,200
brought it up. Really good pitch micks, seven different pitches.

628
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,559
You don't see that often. You don't see that often

629
00:32:50,599 --> 00:32:52,960
from young guys, especially when they get to the majors.

630
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:56,960
You know, sometimes like these these five to six pitch

631
00:32:57,079 --> 00:33:00,000
guys at Triple A, it's like, well, yeah, you don't

632
00:33:00,119 --> 00:33:02,440
need to have you can kind of throw whatever, and

633
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:04,279
if you have a couple of good pitches, you're fine.

634
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:06,680
Then you get to the big leagues and it's like, Okay,

635
00:33:06,799 --> 00:33:09,359
I can't throw my cutter here because that's gonna get crushed.

636
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,920
I can't throw my change up here because I leave

637
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:13,960
it in the zone and they'll figure it out. And

638
00:33:14,039 --> 00:33:17,880
so you see, like a six pitcher five pitcher become

639
00:33:18,319 --> 00:33:20,839
a two or three pitch pitcher and typically it doesn't

640
00:33:20,839 --> 00:33:25,039
go well. And so that's like, that's something that's really

641
00:33:25,359 --> 00:33:29,440
made me excited about McGreevy is he's throwing five six pitches.

642
00:33:29,799 --> 00:33:32,799
He seems to throw most of them well, and he

643
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:36,039
throws them all off of his fastball, which is very

644
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:40,039
He locates extremely well, so he locates the fastball, which I.

645
00:33:40,039 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 4: Think is huge for him.

646
00:33:41,519 --> 00:33:44,759
Speaker 1: It goes back to like all of these different pitchers

647
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:47,920
right now that are having success that maybe shouldn't have success,

648
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:51,519
there's one sort of common thread, and it's like, it

649
00:33:51,559 --> 00:33:54,400
doesn't matter if they have ninety six, ninety seven, ninety eight.

650
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:57,000
It's all about where you're throwing the fastball, right Like.

651
00:33:57,039 --> 00:33:59,400
It's the reason guys like Ben Lively, I know he's

652
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:01,680
hurt right now, have been able to come back and

653
00:34:01,759 --> 00:34:05,200
be awesome. Since they've come back, they can you know,

654
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,039
they put the fastball. They might throw ninety one ninety two,

655
00:34:08,039 --> 00:34:10,239
but they can put it wherever they want, and suddenly

656
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:12,800
the rest of their repertoire is very effective.

657
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:14,639
Speaker 4: I see a lot of that when I watch mc

658
00:34:14,679 --> 00:34:15,639
grievy pitch, because.

659
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,800
Speaker 1: He's not getting swing and miss, he's not really getting

660
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:19,719
you the chase, but he can kind of put the

661
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:21,800
pitches where he wants, and you see, you know, he's

662
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,840
not not walking anyone. Guys are having a hard time

663
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,440
barreling him up. Doesn't really give up a ton of

664
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:30,960
hard hit, and I think it's made him, It's going

665
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,840
to make him a very effective pitcher going forward as

666
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,920
he can continue to like tweak that locate better. And

667
00:34:37,039 --> 00:34:38,840
he was a great last time out against the Red

668
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,119
So in this scenario, Verlander, he's been awesome. But I

669
00:34:42,159 --> 00:34:45,199
still think there's a blow up in there somewhere. Who knows,

670
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:46,679
maybe he gets to the end of the season when

671
00:34:46,679 --> 00:34:51,960
it doesn't happen. But he's to me like I thought

672
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,000
he was gonna get crushed at some point. Play I

673
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,559
played against Verlander last week with the Diamondbacks. They couldn't

674
00:34:56,639 --> 00:34:59,519
hit him. I don't know what that was about, but yeah,

675
00:34:59,559 --> 00:35:01,840
I'm with you TV. It's got to be the Cardinals here.

676
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,360
And I don't mind. I don't mind the one and

677
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:08,679
a half in the parlay there was another Here's here's

678
00:35:08,679 --> 00:35:10,639
a question. I mean, we have to at least bring

679
00:35:10,679 --> 00:35:13,280
this up. I have an answer here. I'll go to

680
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:18,719
Brian Leonard first, though Mark Kinsen he said, in all seriousness,

681
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,519
what happened to the Tigers. I have a pretty good

682
00:35:21,519 --> 00:35:23,360
answer here, but I want you guys to go first

683
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:26,039
to Brian Leonard. What happened to the Tigers? And if

684
00:35:26,079 --> 00:35:28,119
you want to throw some thoughts about the Guardians pulling

685
00:35:28,119 --> 00:35:32,679
it off, feel free to do so.

686
00:35:33,159 --> 00:35:37,559
Speaker 2: Tigers were never as good as they were or when

687
00:35:37,599 --> 00:35:40,840
we thought they were good, and they're not as bad

688
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:43,519
as they are right now, but they're starting to feel

689
00:35:43,559 --> 00:35:46,079
the pressure. There was no pressure on them all says

690
00:35:46,119 --> 00:35:48,000
as long. It's tough to play with pressure. Look at

691
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,920
the mess MAT's had the second highest payroll in baseball

692
00:35:51,079 --> 00:35:55,119
and yet they're may not make the playoffs now. I

693
00:35:55,119 --> 00:35:58,199
said it when Detroit was great, I said, they've got

694
00:35:58,199 --> 00:36:00,199
the best, in my opinion, one of the best two

695
00:36:00,199 --> 00:36:03,480
managers in Major League Baseball. But they had a lot

696
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:05,639
of guys that were having career years in the first

697
00:36:05,639 --> 00:36:09,159
half of the season. They've all fallen apart. Other than

698
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:12,920
the first basement, He's been very good all season long.

699
00:36:13,559 --> 00:36:15,800
But a lot of these pitchers, you know, Detroit's had

700
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,079
a lot of injuries. For pitchers. De Troy's god like

701
00:36:18,119 --> 00:36:21,800
three guys that I really like, but because of injuries,

702
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,440
they haven't been able to really pitch this year and

703
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:27,760
next year. I really like this pitching staff for Detroit.

704
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:29,760
I think I think Detroit's gonna run away with this

705
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:34,559
division next year, but it's this year. They just it's

706
00:36:34,559 --> 00:36:38,639
a pressure thing. And even for us when we're handicapping

707
00:36:38,679 --> 00:36:42,440
games and we're on losing streaks. It happens to everybody.

708
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,239
You get tightensed up and you'll say, well, instead of

709
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:48,119
putting that five plays, I'll put out one play. And

710
00:36:48,159 --> 00:36:49,920
you know, okay, you put out the one play and

711
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:53,480
it loses and the other four win. You're questioning yourselves

712
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:55,199
and that's the way the Detroit Tigers are doing. They're

713
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,280
questioning themselves right now and it's really getting into their heads.

714
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:01,800
And Cleveland with the run there on. Although I blame

715
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:06,800
yesterday's loss on the manager, is he Sebrawski's in there

716
00:37:07,079 --> 00:37:09,679
is a lefty. He hadn't pitched in two days. I

717
00:37:09,679 --> 00:37:13,360
know he did warm up, but they they replaced him

718
00:37:13,679 --> 00:37:17,239
with Festa. And then Lee turned around and went from

719
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,960
his week of position of batting right handed to his

720
00:37:20,039 --> 00:37:22,360
strong power position of batting left handed. Hits a two

721
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:26,719
run homer and the los I call him the tribe.

722
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:30,800
Cleveland loses. But I've not been happy with the Cleveland

723
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,320
manager this year, but he did. He's gotten them more

724
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:35,400
than they are and that's better than what I ever

725
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:38,000
thought they would get there. But yeah, Detroit somewhere in

726
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,119
the middle. But next year, Next year is the time

727
00:37:40,159 --> 00:37:42,199
you want to bet on the Tigers before the season.

728
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:46,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty much agree with Brian. They were playing way

729
00:37:46,119 --> 00:37:48,000
over their heads in the first half of the season.

730
00:37:48,039 --> 00:37:50,320
Speaker 2: They're pretty they're an above.

731
00:37:50,039 --> 00:37:53,599
Speaker 3: Average team with that's well put together and a good manager.

732
00:37:53,639 --> 00:37:57,440
But the problem with the Tigers is if they can't

733
00:37:57,519 --> 00:38:01,480
manufacture runs, small ball runs, then they can't win. And

734
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:04,599
if they don't win win scoobls on the mound, then

735
00:38:04,599 --> 00:38:07,559
they're probably gonna lose the series. That's just the way

736
00:38:07,639 --> 00:38:09,840
the Tigers are. They don't have much of a rotation.

737
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,800
They have a lot of scrappy guys who can when

738
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,119
they get The thing with the Tigers was in the

739
00:38:16,119 --> 00:38:20,840
first half, all of them have had hitting streaks at

740
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,679
the same time. So that's that's why they were such

741
00:38:23,679 --> 00:38:26,039
a juggernaut. And now they're kind of coming back to earth.

742
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,360
They're just they're they're an above average team. They're not

743
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:32,360
a World Series team in my opinion. They're they're they're

744
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:37,360
they're they're on the brink of a playoff team basically,

745
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,360
and they played way over their heads in the in

746
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,360
the beginning of the season, and I think now, like

747
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:47,199
Brian said, they're playing worse than they actually are. But yeah,

748
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:50,679
they're they're an above average team, so that's probably whether

749
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:52,000
where they will end up.

750
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:56,840
Speaker 1: So I think they're a below average team from a

751
00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:59,199
talent standpoint, And I've said this since the beginning of

752
00:38:59,199 --> 00:39:03,159
the year. I felt like I felt like that you

753
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,320
can you can go back to that Mariner series right

754
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,719
before the All Star break when they get swept and

755
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:11,239
then they obviously had five All Stars, so they you know,

756
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:13,400
they kind of and like Brian was saying, they had

757
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:15,719
such a big lead, it was like, all right, you know,

758
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,880
well they kind of mailed it in for that Mariner series.

759
00:39:19,079 --> 00:39:20,920
Then they had guys who go to the All Star Game,

760
00:39:21,079 --> 00:39:23,000
so of course those guys coming back there was a

761
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,639
little bit of a hangover. Suddenly they lost eight straight

762
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,400
games or whatever it was nine in a row. Still

763
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:31,039
didn't matter, still had a huge lead, but they've never

764
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:33,840
like if you go back to the beginning of the year,

765
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:37,039
I was watching Tiger's spring training games and one of

766
00:39:37,039 --> 00:39:40,199
the things they said was like they kept saying like

767
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:43,800
this team is built on pitching and defense, Like they

768
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:47,559
pretty much admitted in the spring, like yeah, we're not

769
00:39:47,599 --> 00:39:49,960
really sure about this, like our lineup, we don't we

770
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:53,599
don't know that we have like they said without saying that,

771
00:39:54,119 --> 00:39:55,719
if we're gonna win games, it's gonna have to be

772
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:56,719
two to one type games.

773
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:58,679
Speaker 4: Small like TV was saying small.

774
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:01,760
Speaker 1: Ball, aj Hinch out managing the other manager, stuff like that,

775
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:04,360
And I just think right now, like he's it's not

776
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:08,519
like they're not trying, but like like you were saying, Brandon,

777
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,840
you get past Schooball, like yeah, you got a generational

778
00:40:12,199 --> 00:40:16,840
talent starting pitcher Cy Young, candidate Cy Young, like you know, winner,

779
00:40:17,159 --> 00:40:19,920
Like he's is as good as it gets. After that,

780
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:23,400
it's like, you know, Hint is just out there trying

781
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:25,639
to mix and match. He doesn't have a great lineup.

782
00:40:25,679 --> 00:40:29,960
It's a it's a below average talent lineup. The his

783
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,519
his sort of allotment of pitchers isn't as good as

784
00:40:32,519 --> 00:40:34,960
it was last year. And I think you're just starting

785
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:37,599
to see like, okay, you can't. You know, there's a

786
00:40:37,679 --> 00:40:40,880
reason that a a quote unquote bullpen game. There's a

787
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:43,719
reason not everyone's doing it right like there that no

788
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:47,000
other team is really like all all getting to a

789
00:40:47,039 --> 00:40:49,920
point in to a series or a rotation where they're like, yeah,

790
00:40:50,079 --> 00:40:52,519
let's go with a bullpen game. It's because it typically

791
00:40:52,559 --> 00:40:55,079
doesn't work. And last year I think it was like

792
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:59,960
incredible the rate at which the Tigers were winning, piecing

793
00:41:00,079 --> 00:41:03,440
together like nine innings from their bullpen, and now they're

794
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:05,320
trying to do it at times this year it's just

795
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,920
not working. And and the offense, like you guys were

796
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:12,199
saying they were having career years in the first half.

797
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:14,800
This was never a great offense anyway. So to me,

798
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,960
like the Tigers, I I gotta be honest, I don't.

799
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:20,280
I don't know that they're like much of a playoff team.

800
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:22,599
I think if they do get in at this point

801
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:26,239
that they're just I don't see any they don't have

802
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:29,920
any talent, So I don't and and unless they like

803
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,239
all of the start and get back to like just

804
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,440
doing everything correctly and winning games two one, like, they're

805
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:37,239
not better than these other teams that they're gonna be

806
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:37,920
playing against.

807
00:41:38,159 --> 00:41:40,760
Speaker 4: So that's my that's sort of my take on that.

808
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,639
Speaker 1: I just think that the lack of talent has caught

809
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:46,440
up with them and they can't overcome it anymore. And

810
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:49,199
now you mix in the pressure that Brian has brought up,

811
00:41:50,079 --> 00:41:53,159
it's like the it's a literal it's the literal recipe

812
00:41:53,199 --> 00:41:56,440
for disaster, and that's what you're seeing play out good

813
00:41:56,559 --> 00:42:00,440
question markins and that was that was that was a

814
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:04,719
good That was good. Now how do you action that? Like,

815
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:07,000
what's actionable off that? Since this is a betting show,

816
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:11,039
I don't know. I'm probably fading the title. Well, let

817
00:42:11,079 --> 00:42:13,840
me go back to you, Brian. If the Tigers get in,

818
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:17,119
are you worried about them? Is it almost like do

819
00:42:17,199 --> 00:42:19,400
you think they get rejuvenated by holding out to the

820
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:20,159
playoff spot?

821
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 4: I'm talking about next week once we have playoffs.

822
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:28,039
Speaker 2: Actually, if Detroit gets in, I probably will be on

823
00:42:28,159 --> 00:42:31,519
them because the value of everybody's thinking they backed into

824
00:42:31,519 --> 00:42:34,159
the playoffs, Well, all that pressure is off. Once they're

825
00:42:34,159 --> 00:42:37,360
in the playoffs. Hey, then it's a whole new ball game.

826
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:39,239
You see that in college basketball a lot of times

827
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:44,440
when you get to the tournament time when you're playing tea. Yeah, yeah,

828
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,639
when you're when you're playing in those games. So they

829
00:42:47,639 --> 00:42:49,559
get a second chance. And that's the way I look

830
00:42:49,599 --> 00:42:53,039
at it. Tried staying personality what they've had all season

831
00:42:53,039 --> 00:42:55,840
for the most part, but the pressure has been high

832
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:57,440
on them. But if I could catch them against a

833
00:42:57,559 --> 00:43:00,760
popular team like the Yankees or something to that, fact

834
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:04,679
or even Toronto. Then I'm looking to I think there's

835
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,280
there will be value on Detroit. Don't know if we'll

836
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:09,280
get there, but if we get enough value, it's worth

837
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:10,960
playing well.

838
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:12,760
Speaker 1: Before we go to TV. Because I want you guys

839
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,280
to both do you do you have anything? Do you

840
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:18,440
want to very quickly give us something you're looking for

841
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:22,119
for this series starting tomorrow? Because obviously, like what bigger

842
00:43:22,159 --> 00:43:24,320
series is there in Major League Baseball right now than

843
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:27,159
Tiger's at Guardians the next three days. So are you

844
00:43:27,199 --> 00:43:29,480
looking for a way into that series? Have you thought

845
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:30,079
about it yet?

846
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 2: I had not seen the matchups yet. I don't think

847
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:38,719
Cleveland's announced them, but you Troit, as has said, who's

848
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:42,719
going to go? Normally, I play against what happened the

849
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:45,400
last time they play, for example, with the with the

850
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:50,119
sales situation, and we talked about the game earlier, and

851
00:43:50,599 --> 00:43:53,320
these teams know each other very well. Home valued is

852
00:43:53,519 --> 00:43:57,239
very low in this division. So I'll try to find

853
00:43:57,320 --> 00:44:01,119
probably find ways to play Detroit and if I'm not

854
00:44:01,119 --> 00:44:03,400
gonna win with my favorite team, at least I can

855
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:04,079
max the money.

856
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:10,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, regarding the Tigers, I think they're if they get in,

857
00:44:10,599 --> 00:44:13,199
I think they're already in the playoffs, right, I mean.

858
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:14,559
Speaker 4: No, not even close.

859
00:44:14,599 --> 00:44:14,840
Speaker 1: They are.

860
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:16,800
Speaker 4: They are on their way out the door if they

861
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:20,039
don't win a game this week or like a game

862
00:44:20,119 --> 00:44:20,639
this week.

863
00:44:20,679 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 1: But they're only one game ahead of the Guardians, and

864
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:26,559
I think they would be tied for the last wild

865
00:44:26,599 --> 00:44:27,920
card spot right.

866
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:31,760
Speaker 2: It's amazing tis Houston right now and they have the

867
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:36,400
tiebreaker and they really Schandle, congratulations to you on that.

868
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:39,480
By the way, Trick Saddle's look looking looking good.

869
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:41,760
Speaker 1: A great result for the Mariners this weekend.

870
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:45,280
Speaker 3: Go ahead, it's like ten games ahead in their division.

871
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:48,079
Speaker 2: That's a half up at one point.

872
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:51,639
Speaker 3: Fifteen and a half. Amazing how far they fell. But

873
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:55,920
look at their starting rotation. They got Jack Flerty arguably well,

874
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:58,639
he's definitely a top two pitcher in MLB. He's either

875
00:44:58,679 --> 00:45:06,199
one or two. And then after that, uh, I mean Scooble, Scooball. Sorry,

876
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:10,599
after that, they got Flaarty, miz In Montero and those guys.

877
00:45:11,559 --> 00:45:13,719
Those none of those guys you would call an ace.

878
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:16,119
I wouldn't call any of those guys a second starter.

879
00:45:17,639 --> 00:45:21,800
Bad rotation. Uh, and their bullpen's not very good either,

880
00:45:22,039 --> 00:45:27,599
So yeah, I wouldn't put a lot of hope in Detroit. Uh,

881
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:31,800
Cleveland's playing like crazy right now, Likeconi had another like

882
00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:35,679
eight inning, one hit or one.

883
00:45:35,559 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 2: Earned long man. That guy.

884
00:45:40,159 --> 00:45:43,199
Speaker 3: Since he was since he was at Arizona, he's been

885
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:45,480
a thorn in my side because I want to fade

886
00:45:45,519 --> 00:45:48,320
him so bad because his peripherals look so horrible. But

887
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:50,559
then he goes out there and he throws like he

888
00:45:50,639 --> 00:45:54,199
did the other day, like eight inning, one earned run

889
00:45:54,599 --> 00:45:57,679
or three hit, one earned game. You know, I don't

890
00:45:57,679 --> 00:45:59,559
know what to make of that guy, but he's He's

891
00:45:59,679 --> 00:46:03,039
number four in their rotation. They got Biby Williams and

892
00:46:03,079 --> 00:46:05,519
Logan Allen. Those are not guys that strike fear into

893
00:46:05,559 --> 00:46:09,440
anyone either. The thing about Cleveland is they're raking right now.

894
00:46:09,599 --> 00:46:14,199
So yeah, I mean, who thought a month ago that

895
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:17,559
Cleveland even had a shot of making the playoffs. Probably nobody.

896
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:20,519
But now they're just playing like fire. They're playing like

897
00:46:20,639 --> 00:46:24,079
Detroit played in the first half. So pretty crazy stuff.

898
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:27,440
I think Detroit and San Francisco, those two teams are

899
00:46:27,519 --> 00:46:30,000
absolute fades from here on out, in my opinion.

900
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:34,159
Speaker 4: So interesting. I just pulled up the division market.

901
00:46:34,199 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 1: It looks like a lot of these places still have

902
00:46:36,039 --> 00:46:39,679
the Tigers priced like minus won sixty minus went sixty

903
00:46:39,679 --> 00:46:40,960
five minus went seventy.

904
00:46:40,679 --> 00:46:44,039
Speaker 4: To win the division. I guess I understand why.

905
00:46:44,119 --> 00:46:46,760
Speaker 1: Well, you're gonna get schoobled twice, most likely because he's

906
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,840
pitching tomorrow, and then you would have to think that

907
00:46:50,159 --> 00:46:53,039
it's his ball on Sunday if it's a meaningful game.

908
00:46:53,079 --> 00:46:54,719
So they've they've got it set up where it's gonna

909
00:46:54,719 --> 00:47:00,599
be Schooble tomorrow and then Schooble again on Sunday unless

910
00:47:00,639 --> 00:47:01,920
they don't need him for some reason.

911
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:04,320
Speaker 3: He's been getting tagged lately though.

912
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:08,280
Speaker 1: Well, what I was gonna say is, I still think

913
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:10,239
I would fade them all for all six of their

914
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:12,599
games are on the road against teams that might need

915
00:47:12,639 --> 00:47:15,679
to win. They're gonna go three against the Guardians, three,

916
00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:18,440
three at Fenway. That's what they end with, three at

917
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:21,880
the Guardians, three at Fenway. Like that's I don't know

918
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:24,880
that I make them a minus one seventy price to

919
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:28,559
win that division under those circumstances, when you'll have the

920
00:47:28,599 --> 00:47:31,239
Guardians at home, and then the Guardians get to close

921
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:34,880
at home with Texas who looks like they've they've mailed

922
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:35,480
the season in.

923
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:37,519
Speaker 4: At this point yeah, good pint so.

924
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:43,559
Speaker 3: Google's been getting hit lately too. He's not invincible.

925
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 2: If they if they use have to use Scooball on

926
00:47:46,599 --> 00:47:49,320
the finals ton Day, that means he pitches the third

927
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:52,599
game of the series. Oh that throws them and batshit

928
00:47:53,039 --> 00:47:54,280
if they've got to use.

929
00:47:54,159 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 3: School, I mean, yeah, Flairity is not horrible, but I

930
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:01,920
mean he's it's kind of unpredictable as well. He's really

931
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:05,079
good at home and pour on the road. But yeah,

932
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,440
not a guy you want to like you want your

933
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,679
playoff hopes dependent on, right.

934
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:14,960
Speaker 1: I actually think that that's like potentially worth the worth

935
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:17,440
of bet, like, if you're trying to, if you're if

936
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:19,079
you're Since we have again we have a little exture

937
00:48:19,119 --> 00:48:21,079
time will dig into some of the other markets. Like,

938
00:48:21,519 --> 00:48:25,679
I think that pricing is off. I understand what they're

939
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:28,440
I think they've put I think the books are and

940
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:31,639
I only looked one place to obviously shop around. I

941
00:48:31,679 --> 00:48:33,840
think they're looking at saying well, we've got a price

942
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:37,880
Schooble being like whatever a favorite in twice, but actually,

943
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,960
what what is Schooble favored on the road against the

944
00:48:41,039 --> 00:48:43,800
Guardians and the Red Sox at this point minus one sixty.

945
00:48:44,159 --> 00:48:46,039
Speaker 4: What's he gonna be. What do you think the line

946
00:48:46,039 --> 00:48:48,440
tomorrow is going to be higher than that?

947
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:50,280
Speaker 2: Bryan depends on who he's going against.

948
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:54,760
Speaker 1: It looks like it's gonna be Gavin Waits Williams.

949
00:48:55,119 --> 00:48:59,320
Speaker 2: There'll be one ace of the Guardians. It's against a

950
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:00,199
She's probably.

951
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,599
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. I don't think you're gonna get

952
00:49:08,679 --> 00:49:12,159
higher than in that game right now. I'm guessing that

953
00:49:12,159 --> 00:49:15,280
that price opens something like minus one fifty minus one

954
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:18,920
forty minus one fifty. And then you're talking about at

955
00:49:19,079 --> 00:49:20,840
you know, at Fenway could be different. If the Red

956
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:22,440
Sox have nothing to play for on Sunday, that's a

957
00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:25,440
little bit different. I think the Guardians, if you can

958
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:28,199
get like plus so I'm looking just I looked at

959
00:49:28,199 --> 00:49:30,719
one spot, it's like plus one twenty five.

960
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:32,000
Speaker 4: You can probably find better than that.

961
00:49:32,159 --> 00:49:35,760
Speaker 1: If you can find better than that, absolutely worth worth

962
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:37,480
a bet because.

963
00:49:37,079 --> 00:49:39,440
Speaker 3: It'll be higher than that. I think it'll be one sixty.

964
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:40,000
Speaker 2: Book.

965
00:49:40,079 --> 00:49:42,719
Speaker 1: No, I'm talking about the Guardians to win the division.

966
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:47,599
Speaker 4: Guardians to win the division should be like okay, because.

967
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 1: You're gonna get six home games from the Guardians, three

968
00:49:50,519 --> 00:49:53,639
of which are against the Rangers. Team that has completely

969
00:49:53,679 --> 00:49:58,519
given up. I mean they just they looked totally uninterested

970
00:49:58,519 --> 00:50:01,800
at playing baseball this whole week. I think they've now

971
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:04,679
lost seven straight. And we've talked about that team on

972
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:08,119
this show, being like, what'd you say, Brian, twenty five players,

973
00:50:08,119 --> 00:50:10,880
twenty five cabs, Like they all just go their separate way,

974
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:11,119
like a.

975
00:50:11,159 --> 00:50:15,119
Speaker 2: Lot of veterans on that team that have fought very hard.

976
00:50:15,199 --> 00:50:17,599
I mean, yeah, I can see them, you.

977
00:50:17,599 --> 00:50:20,280
Speaker 1: Know what I'm saying. So, like you're talking, you're telling

978
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:22,119
me that the Guardians, that's what they're gonna get the

979
00:50:22,199 --> 00:50:24,159
last week of the season, season on the line, and

980
00:50:24,199 --> 00:50:27,360
they're gonna get an uninterested Rangers team coming in, and

981
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:29,519
the Tigers are going to have to go to Fenway Park,

982
00:50:29,840 --> 00:50:32,880
where actually the Red Sox might have to hold off

983
00:50:33,639 --> 00:50:36,079
one of these other teams, right, Like, where are we

984
00:50:36,159 --> 00:50:38,400
at with them in the standings?

985
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:43,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean they're only a game ahead of the Guardians,

986
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:46,440
So there's a there's a scenario where suddenly they're fighting

987
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:49,360
to hold off Houston or one of these other teams

988
00:50:49,639 --> 00:50:51,119
for that last wildcard spot.

989
00:50:51,159 --> 00:50:53,639
Speaker 4: So that's this is I think it's a very interesting

990
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:55,119
set up.

991
00:50:55,159 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 1: All of a sudden, the.

992
00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:00,840
Speaker 3: Red Sox definitely need it. Uh, Texas Range are definitely

993
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:05,559
playing uninspired ball. I haven't seen anyone. I mean, the

994
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:08,280
teams that I'm definitely fading down the stretch would be

995
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:13,320
the Tigers, the Giants, uh, and possibly the Padres. Man

996
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:18,519
I've I've an the Padres looks so bad, so bad

997
00:51:18,599 --> 00:51:20,840
right now. But yeah, I agree, I agree with you

998
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:24,360
that Cleveland certainly could could win all six of those

999
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:25,920
games conceivably.

1000
00:51:26,199 --> 00:51:29,079
Speaker 1: Well, I'll tell you what if they if they win tomorrow,

1001
00:51:29,760 --> 00:51:33,599
you're you're you just ended up with like insane value

1002
00:51:33,639 --> 00:51:35,320
on that bet. Like if you if you think the

1003
00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:38,960
Guardians can win tomorrow, that division bet, in my opinion

1004
00:51:39,039 --> 00:51:41,360
is is a very good bet because they will be

1005
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:44,400
in the driver's seat in the Al Central if they

1006
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:46,760
can pull off the win tomorrow, and then you're sitting

1007
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:48,920
there with like potentially like plus one thirty on them

1008
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:49,679
to win the division.

1009
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:53,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, anyway, it's good.

1010
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:56,159
Speaker 1: It's good conversation. I wasn't really thinking about that, but

1011
00:51:56,199 --> 00:51:58,599
I look that lineup and I'm just like, oh, they

1012
00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:01,840
they have are putting way too much faith in Schooble

1013
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:04,960
right there, pricing that where it is that they're basically

1014
00:52:05,199 --> 00:52:07,119
the books are basically telling you they think the Tigers

1015
00:52:07,159 --> 00:52:09,719
are gonna win tomorrow, and I don't know if I

1016
00:52:09,719 --> 00:52:11,400
I don't know if I fully agree with that, So

1017
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:16,119
I'm gonna go. If we don't, I'm just gonna see

1018
00:52:16,119 --> 00:52:18,400
if there's another MLB question. I know we're kind of,

1019
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:21,760
you know, rambling. We already did the We already did

1020
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:25,480
the three games. So if you've missed, probably a good

1021
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:28,559
time to like promote the site, since that's w'ere.

1022
00:52:28,719 --> 00:52:31,039
Speaker 4: You know, we are supposed to do that at some point.

1023
00:52:31,159 --> 00:52:35,639
Speaker 1: So if you've missed any part of the show, as always,

1024
00:52:36,079 --> 00:52:38,000
it is up on the Wager Talking to YouTube channel

1025
00:52:38,599 --> 00:52:42,119
on demand live and on demand, feel free to head

1026
00:52:42,119 --> 00:52:43,599
on over there, like subscribe.

1027
00:52:43,639 --> 00:52:47,199
Speaker 4: It does help the show tremendously. I doubt.

1028
00:52:47,199 --> 00:52:48,360
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm gonna end up with a

1029
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:50,719
Major League Baseball play today, but I may have something

1030
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:54,559
in KBO TV. Do you guys have anything up for

1031
00:52:54,639 --> 00:52:55,360
sale right now?

1032
00:52:57,320 --> 00:52:57,719
Speaker 2: I don't.

1033
00:52:57,800 --> 00:53:01,079
Speaker 3: I have an MLB player, and I probably will have

1034
00:53:01,199 --> 00:53:04,480
KPO in Japanese Baseball out as well later on.

1035
00:53:05,199 --> 00:53:08,039
Speaker 2: I have nothing up right now, but I am going

1036
00:53:08,079 --> 00:53:09,679
to fill you in on a bet. I'm going to

1037
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:14,280
make it's not baseball related. In the w NBA Playoffs,

1038
00:53:14,960 --> 00:53:19,320
Indiana beat Vegas the first game. They can't couldn't stop

1039
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:23,400
Boston underneath and too much speed from the guards of Indiana.

1040
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:25,679
You can get Indiana to win that series right now

1041
00:53:25,679 --> 00:53:29,199
at plus two dollars. That's the bet I'm making in that.

1042
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:32,559
Obviously a lot of people aren't interested. But hey, like

1043
00:53:32,639 --> 00:53:34,800
I said, I will bet anything I can as long

1044
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:37,679
as I can get it get a profit on it.

1045
00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:38,960
So yeah, so I'm going to be on.

1046
00:53:41,880 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 3: No.

1047
00:53:42,079 --> 00:53:43,599
Speaker 1: I love that. So sorry, Brian, I didn't mean to

1048
00:53:43,639 --> 00:53:44,000
cut you off.

1049
00:53:44,039 --> 00:53:48,360
Speaker 2: What nuts to bet Indiana to beat the Las Vegas

1050
00:53:48,599 --> 00:53:52,000
Aces in the series. They're a huge underdog going into

1051
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:56,079
game one and if I watch Aces all the time,

1052
00:53:56,079 --> 00:54:00,000
to watch all the games, Marco is a season ticket holder. Yeah,

1053
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:02,480
they don't match up. They didn't match up with Seattle.

1054
00:54:02,519 --> 00:54:05,159
They were lucky to win that last series. They haven't

1055
00:54:05,159 --> 00:54:07,719
matched up here. They got the best player in basketball

1056
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:11,159
and Asian Wilson, but not a good matchup for them

1057
00:54:11,199 --> 00:54:14,880
against Indiana. Indiana's playing a lot of I mean, you've

1058
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:17,039
got to root for a team that's loses what their

1059
00:54:17,079 --> 00:54:21,559
three best players and now they're still playing so well.

1060
00:54:21,880 --> 00:54:22,960
Great coaching job there.

1061
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:28,320
Speaker 1: I tried to jump in because you talking about that

1062
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:30,480
reminded me of something I wanted to bring up, so

1063
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:34,400
I will. I'm hoping Brian goes and maybe roots this

1064
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:36,559
home for me in person at some point this week.

1065
00:54:37,079 --> 00:54:40,119
But I want to talk about the Triple A playoffs

1066
00:54:40,119 --> 00:54:42,000
that start this week, and Brian and I were having

1067
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:45,719
this conversation off air the other day, but I think

1068
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:48,599
it's worth pointing out. So if you're unfamiliar with how

1069
00:54:48,639 --> 00:54:51,559
this works. The way Triple A Baseball does their playoffs,

1070
00:54:51,639 --> 00:54:54,840
they have a first half champion and a second half champion,

1071
00:54:55,239 --> 00:54:58,280
and then those two players or I'm sorry, those two

1072
00:54:58,280 --> 00:55:01,360
teams play at a best of three each side Pacific

1073
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:04,360
Coast League internationally, and then the winners go out to

1074
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:07,400
Vegas and play a one game sort of winner take all.

1075
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:11,360
They call it the Triple A Championship Game. The interesting

1076
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:14,760
thing about that is to me is you get the

1077
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:17,000
first half team in the playoffs, but these teams are

1078
00:55:17,039 --> 00:55:20,039
so different throughout the course of the year, and so

1079
00:55:20,119 --> 00:55:22,920
Las Vegas was the first half chance.

1080
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:23,440
Speaker 4: In the PCL.

1081
00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:25,760
Speaker 1: But a lot of those guys have been up now,

1082
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:28,519
a lot of those guys Kobe tom Is, Darryl Harne Is,

1083
00:55:28,599 --> 00:55:31,400
like that were big parts. Even Kurtz for the first

1084
00:55:31,400 --> 00:55:34,440
month of the season, there were big parts of that.

1085
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:38,440
Speaker 4: Winning the first half or not. You know, j T.

1086
00:55:38,599 --> 00:55:41,480
Speaker 1: Gin he's been up like you know, the list goes on,

1087
00:55:42,039 --> 00:55:46,599
are no longer with the team. So now you have Tacoma.

1088
00:55:47,119 --> 00:55:49,880
They weren't much of anything in the first half. Suddenly

1089
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:52,280
in the second half, the Mariners get healthy and they

1090
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:55,119
have all these good players down at Triple A even

1091
00:55:55,159 --> 00:55:58,159
right now, like Lodi Tavares can't find his way onto

1092
00:55:58,159 --> 00:56:00,480
a big league club. What was he like a huge

1093
00:56:00,480 --> 00:56:02,639
part of a World Series team two years ago, can't

1094
00:56:02,639 --> 00:56:03,360
get out a Triple A.

1095
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:05,000
Speaker 4: The Mariners just have too many good players.

1096
00:56:05,519 --> 00:56:09,960
Speaker 1: So you have a scenario where Tacoma second half champions

1097
00:56:10,559 --> 00:56:13,280
forty seven and twenty seven. That was what the Rainiers

1098
00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:15,679
were in the second half. Vegas in the second half

1099
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:18,639
thirty four and forty. Even Brian was like, this team's

1100
00:56:18,639 --> 00:56:20,840
playing like garbage. Like he goes to a couple of games,

1101
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:23,639
says they're not playing any good, but they're gonna play

1102
00:56:23,679 --> 00:56:26,039
this quote unquote playoff series where they're gonna get priced

1103
00:56:26,039 --> 00:56:28,920
as equals and now to add another layer to it,

1104
00:56:29,239 --> 00:56:32,440
the game is in Vegas, so you're probably you might

1105
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:35,800
even have Tacoma an underdog there. It'll depend on the pitching,

1106
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:37,880
but that's kind of what we were chatting about off air.

1107
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:40,440
Might have a good opportunity to bet to Coma over

1108
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:43,440
the next couple of days, depending on who the pitchers are,

1109
00:56:44,559 --> 00:56:45,480
and hopefully.

1110
00:56:45,079 --> 00:56:47,280
Speaker 4: Brian will go and root it home for us in person.

1111
00:56:50,199 --> 00:56:52,320
Speaker 1: Anyway, Sorry, I had to didn't mean off to get

1112
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:55,519
off topic there, but I'm just telling you I'll be

1113
00:56:55,559 --> 00:56:59,159
looking for a way to play Tacoma at some point

1114
00:56:59,159 --> 00:57:02,800
in that series, and their issue has been pitching, so

1115
00:57:02,840 --> 00:57:05,320
it'll have to be I don't know who I would

1116
00:57:05,480 --> 00:57:09,000
necessarily want as a starter from a pitching standpoint, but

1117
00:57:09,039 --> 00:57:11,039
it'll be more like if like we see our guy

1118
00:57:11,159 --> 00:57:14,079
Tokyo Brandon, if we see them run Aaron Brooks former

1119
00:57:14,159 --> 00:57:16,159
Kia Tiger out there, I'll probably faid.

1120
00:57:17,559 --> 00:57:20,519
Speaker 3: Speaking of speaking of future bets, let's just do a

1121
00:57:20,599 --> 00:57:22,599
round table real quick of who you think is going

1122
00:57:22,679 --> 00:57:24,079
to win the World Series.

1123
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:27,119
Speaker 1: In like two seconds or less, because we're we're we're

1124
00:57:27,119 --> 00:57:30,159
going to wrap this up thirty second.

1125
00:57:31,159 --> 00:57:33,400
Speaker 3: I think the Phillies are going to win it. Even

1126
00:57:33,440 --> 00:57:36,239
without Wheeler Man their rotation, they still got three guys

1127
00:57:36,239 --> 00:57:40,360
in the top ten, and if their bullpen can come around,

1128
00:57:40,440 --> 00:57:42,280
I think I think it's the Phillies going to win

1129
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:42,840
it this year.

1130
00:57:44,000 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 2: Thick the Dodgers. They've got more, really more, much more

1131
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:52,719
depth than Philadelphia has, and they're playing They're playing great

1132
00:57:52,719 --> 00:57:56,599
ball now and the these pitching rotations being set up

1133
00:57:56,679 --> 00:57:58,719
very well. Suzuki will be back this week. I think

1134
00:57:58,719 --> 00:58:01,280
he may be pitching out of the bullpen, and their

1135
00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:02,559
bullpen definitely.

1136
00:58:02,199 --> 00:58:05,079
Speaker 3: Needs some help, trying to need some help.

1137
00:58:06,519 --> 00:58:08,960
Speaker 2: They need to do something with him. Yeah, something's wrong.

1138
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:14,760
Speaker 1: I'll say the Blue Jays and more more because I'll

1139
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:16,800
say that they can get there, and then maybe they

1140
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:19,199
get there, then I have a chance. I do think

1141
00:58:19,280 --> 00:58:20,840
I am kind of with you guys. I think the

1142
00:58:20,880 --> 00:58:23,800
winner probably comes from the National League, but the American

1143
00:58:23,880 --> 00:58:27,280
League is much softer. I think the Blue Jays have

1144
00:58:27,719 --> 00:58:30,639
best lineup one to nine. I think Treya Savage could

1145
00:58:30,639 --> 00:58:33,480
be a very interesting piece for them if they use

1146
00:58:33,559 --> 00:58:36,920
him correctly. I always like a team that potentially has

1147
00:58:36,920 --> 00:58:40,280
a really good middle relief arm. I'm hoping that's sort

1148
00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:43,639
of how they use him. Bring him in fifth inning

1149
00:58:44,119 --> 00:58:46,480
and just let him go for three innings. And you

1150
00:58:46,519 --> 00:58:50,159
know he didn't pitch like great yesterday. But I still

1151
00:58:50,199 --> 00:58:53,360
think what we've seen at the big league level stuff

1152
00:58:53,400 --> 00:58:57,559
is nasty. Again, It's just it's a very in my opinion,

1153
00:58:57,639 --> 00:59:00,719
the American League is weak, and I know the Yankees

1154
00:59:00,760 --> 00:59:02,559
are playing good ball right now, but I still think.

1155
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:03,320
Speaker 4: I still think.

1156
00:59:03,320 --> 00:59:05,239
Speaker 1: I just like the Blue Jays lineup one to nine.

1157
00:59:05,320 --> 00:59:07,920
I think, are they going to get Bashette back at

1158
00:59:07,960 --> 00:59:12,320
some point? Not no season, no, no, but I mean

1159
00:59:12,519 --> 00:59:13,599
at some point in the playoffs.

1160
00:59:13,599 --> 00:59:16,679
Speaker 2: Can you give any playoffs I would I don't know yet.

1161
00:59:17,000 --> 00:59:20,320
I will say this is not based on betting value.

1162
00:59:20,400 --> 00:59:22,960
This is who I think is going to win. Yeah,

1163
00:59:23,079 --> 00:59:25,400
if the Dodgers are minus five hundred favorite, I'm not

1164
00:59:25,400 --> 00:59:29,119
betting him. So so yeah, we don't. We don't know

1165
00:59:29,199 --> 00:59:31,800
yet what the what the numbers are going to be.

1166
00:59:33,159 --> 00:59:35,159
I doubt there'll be any value one of the Dodgers

1167
00:59:35,159 --> 00:59:37,320
at all, or the Yankees because of the big cities

1168
00:59:37,360 --> 00:59:40,360
that they play, maybe even the Cubs also, but I

1169
00:59:40,440 --> 00:59:42,119
will we will look at that next week when we

1170
00:59:42,239 --> 00:59:43,559
get to the playoffs show.

1171
00:59:43,679 --> 00:59:45,199
Speaker 4: I will say this just very quickly.

1172
00:59:45,280 --> 00:59:47,920
Speaker 1: I mean, and I just use the Blue Jays to

1173
00:59:47,960 --> 00:59:50,159
have something different because I agree with you on the Dodgers.

1174
00:59:50,239 --> 00:59:52,719
I'd rather have Dodgers five to one right now than

1175
00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:54,840
Blue Jay's eight to one. That's that's what you're looking

1176
00:59:54,880 --> 00:59:57,360
at to win the World Series. So I think I

1177
00:59:57,400 --> 00:59:59,519
agree with that Dodgers call. They're playing their best ball

1178
00:59:59,599 --> 01:00:01,960
the year they have the best roster. Hard hard to

1179
01:00:01,960 --> 01:00:04,840
believe if they are playing to their potential that they're

1180
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:05,880
not there again, So.

1181
01:00:07,400 --> 01:00:11,880
Speaker 3: Hard to count because the pitch the team with a

1182
01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:14,920
great rotation and a good bullpen and the best hitting

1183
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:15,760
catcher in MLB.

1184
01:00:16,079 --> 01:00:18,800
Speaker 4: So financially, that would be the best for me. That

1185
01:00:19,039 --> 01:00:21,039
would be the best for my wallet. I'll tell you that.

1186
01:00:21,159 --> 01:00:23,679
Speaker 1: I I that would be the best for my wallet

1187
01:00:23,679 --> 01:00:26,960
because I still have them in futures to do just that.

1188
01:00:27,199 --> 01:00:30,920
Speaker 4: So all right, we are. We made it an hour.

1189
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:32,320
Speaker 1: I didn't know if we would make it an hour today,

1190
01:00:32,360 --> 01:00:34,519
but it's like we always can find something to talk

1191
01:00:34,559 --> 01:00:38,480
about baseball related. Hopefully you guys had so you know,

1192
01:00:38,559 --> 01:00:41,440
could could Hopefully we gave you something that was actionable

1193
01:00:41,800 --> 01:00:44,159
at the at the very least, we did parlay all

1194
01:00:44,159 --> 01:00:46,760
three of these games together, so we'll see if we

1195
01:00:46,800 --> 01:00:48,960
can can hit a three team around a day. There's

1196
01:00:49,000 --> 01:00:52,440
only three games. Brian Leonard says, Nationals plus one and

1197
01:00:52,440 --> 01:00:54,840
a half. I'm gonna go with Brewers as a small

1198
01:00:54,920 --> 01:00:58,440
underdog plus one ten Tokyo. Brandon's gonna gonna close it

1199
01:00:58,440 --> 01:01:00,000
out with Cardinals plus one and a half.

1200
01:01:00,039 --> 01:01:00,159
Speaker 3: Yea.

1201
01:01:00,519 --> 01:01:04,599
Speaker 1: That parlay place pays five forty five plus five forty

1202
01:01:04,599 --> 01:01:07,480
five and right now, we had a good week on

1203
01:01:07,519 --> 01:01:09,840
the parlays last week, even with the loss on Friday.

1204
01:01:10,400 --> 01:01:11,599
Speaker 4: For every one dollar, if you.

1205
01:01:11,599 --> 01:01:15,039
Speaker 1: Were to bet these evenly all year, for every one dollar,

1206
01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:18,480
it's returned seven dollars and fourteen cents. So pretty happy

1207
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:20,880
about that that we've been able to parlor fire out

1208
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:24,199
a three teamer since April and we're essentially up seven

1209
01:01:24,199 --> 01:01:27,239
point one to four units. That's that that I think

1210
01:01:27,280 --> 01:01:30,320
that that's underrated. I didn't think we'd be up at

1211
01:01:30,320 --> 01:01:33,639
this point because it's hard to hard to win three teamers.

1212
01:01:33,679 --> 01:01:37,360
So Steve Duke, is this our last week? No, We're

1213
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:39,119
going to be here through the playoffs, at least through

1214
01:01:39,159 --> 01:01:41,800
most of it, at least through the earlier rounds when

1215
01:01:41,800 --> 01:01:44,519
there's a lot to talk about. So yeah, Well, we'll

1216
01:01:44,559 --> 01:01:48,599
we're we're not going anywhere. And Adrian I said this

1217
01:01:48,679 --> 01:01:52,039
last week, I'm allowed to tease this. Now I'm going

1218
01:01:52,119 --> 01:01:54,239
to bring this show right into college basketball. So this

1219
01:01:54,239 --> 01:01:58,480
this it'll the title will change. Someone was like total Baskets.

1220
01:01:58,480 --> 01:01:59,719
It's not going to be Total Baskets.

1221
01:01:59,719 --> 01:02:00,559
Speaker 4: I have different title.

1222
01:02:01,679 --> 01:02:03,760
Speaker 1: The title will change, the panel will change, but the

1223
01:02:03,800 --> 01:02:06,039
show is going to be pretty much exactly the same.

1224
01:02:06,079 --> 01:02:09,039
So it's going to be myself, Brian Power, Rob Vino,

1225
01:02:09,599 --> 01:02:12,639
and we're going to do our best to answer questions

1226
01:02:12,639 --> 01:02:16,159
on three hundred and sixty four Division one college basketball teams.

1227
01:02:16,199 --> 01:02:18,400
So it is it is going to be a challenge,

1228
01:02:18,480 --> 01:02:21,519
but we're up for it. So yeah, we're not going anywhere,

1229
01:02:21,840 --> 01:02:24,519
and we the three of us, will absolutely be with

1230
01:02:24,599 --> 01:02:29,599
you through the playoffs. So looking forward to that. But yeah,

1231
01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:33,199
another good show. We've got the three teamer. I'll read

1232
01:02:33,239 --> 01:02:35,880
it off one more time. It is Nats plus one

1233
01:02:35,920 --> 01:02:38,679
and a half, Brewers money Line, Cardinals plus one and

1234
01:02:38,719 --> 01:02:43,760
a half plus five forty five. Hopefully we got another

1235
01:02:43,800 --> 01:02:45,920
winner right there. Check out the site. TV's got a

1236
01:02:45,920 --> 01:02:48,280
play up for sale. I'll probably have a career in baseball.

1237
01:02:48,280 --> 01:02:48,559
Speaker 2: Play.

1238
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:51,559
Speaker 1: Brian's gonna have stuff as well, we always do and

1239
01:02:52,000 --> 01:02:54,960
we will see you guys tomorrow morning for the normal show,

1240
01:02:54,960 --> 01:02:58,719
the full slate dynam We'll see you guys in the morning.

1241
01:03:00,559 --> 01:03:00,599
Speaker 3: S