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Speaker 1: One.

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Speaker 2: Hey, it's last call, Saturday, August the ninth, and this

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is a very special episode. No aerial Epstein's not here.

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That's not why it's special. I am Steve Merril filling in.

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But we have three guests today. The four of us

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combined have been handicapping each for four decades since the nineties.

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At a minimum, this might be the first show in

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wager Talk history where everybody on board, the entire show

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has been here for four plus decades each. Johnny the Greek,

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Teddy covers Ross, the Boss, Benjamin, and once again, I'm

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Steve Merril. This is an action packed episode for Saturday,

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August ninth. Are going to talk baseball, NFL preseasons here

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and we're also going to get the Steam Report right

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off the top. Let's start with the Steam Report as

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and I know you might throw some other sports in there.

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You've got WNBA, you've got UFC at times.

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Speaker 3: What are you looking at here on Saturday? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I have so much information for you today, Steve. I've

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been banging since five am. Man, it's not three hours

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and we've just betten, betten everywhere. I knew it was

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going to be a busy day, my man, block. Welcome

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to the party, brother, hope you crush it today real quickly.

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Let me pass along a couple PFELL fights that go

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off this morning. I sent out five PFL bets to

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my subscribers. One of them's a four percent bet. It's

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at wagertalk dot com for free. So if you go

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to wage of Talk there's a free picks page, or

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on my page, there's a four percent PFL fight that's

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there for free bet through multiple counts, multiple groups on

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the same side also gave out three to two percent

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plays in this PFL card that goes off in about

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five minutes, in an hour. Forgive me, it's at noon Eastern.

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It's only the what's it called eleven am on the

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East coast, it's eight am here. Here's the other three

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that I gave out two percent plays premium plays, but

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two percent with Sambi Adashina Adashena minus one sixty, Osulano

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Benedido Benedido at even money, and then British Bolo Yarny.

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It's in Africa, so that little name is a little difficult.

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I'm crushing these names forgive me at minus one twenty,

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so those are two percent plays. And then there is

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a four percent play over at wager talk dot com.

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I also like Dwight Joseph that got steamed that minus

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two hundred, but by the time I was going to

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give it out it got up to minus two fifty.

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Speaker 5: It's probably minus three hundred by now.

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Speaker 4: So I passed on that, but just wanted to pass

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that or wrong, So sorry Steve to jump out ahead

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of you. Just wanted to get those PFLs because I

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thought it was noon Eastern, but they got an hour,

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So no rush to say.

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Speaker 2: I named all those sports trying to figure out what

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you might cover, and then you throw PFL out there.

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I had to remember what that stood for. Professional Fighters League.

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If I'm not mistaken, because I know's year, I probably

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don't know what it stands for. I didn't know until

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a couple of months ago. What else are you looking

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at here on Saturday?

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Speaker 3: What else?

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Speaker 4: Okay, obviously it's NFL, NFL. All all the focuses on

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NFL today. The early game is about to go off

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at what one pm Eastern? I can tell you New

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York Giants at plus three is the sharp side. New

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York Giants up the plus three laying a little juice

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to get that plus three. I was able to get

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it at minus one twenty two and a half per

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much at even money at most places. If you agree

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with it the Giants, that line's probably still available.

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Speaker 5: A couple other.

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Speaker 4: NFL steam moves. We've been seeing some big line moves,

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so once it gets through some key numbers, you want

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to be careful piggyback and steam. We saw that in

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the first day with the Eagles covering that number after

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Cincinnati moved, but yesterday the opposite New England did get.

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Speaker 5: The job done.

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Speaker 4: So closing line value does matter. And here's a couple

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of those signs that are sharp in preseason one twenty

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three Tennessee minus one and a half. That's why you're

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looking at a key number of three one twenty seven

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Kansas City minus one and a half.

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Speaker 5: Same reason you're looking at minus.

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Speaker 4: Three one thirty one over thirty three Miami Chicago, which

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is why it's thirty five and a half have been

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under thirty seven Saints rngers. The reason that's only moved

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about a half a point is because the early steam

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went over. I'm with the group of guys that came

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in on the under after that adjustment, so those are

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some of the NFL moves that we were able to

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get ahead up. Some other steam moves that I was

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not able to get ahead up one to eighteen Minnesota.

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They laid minus one and a half and two on Minnesota.

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Game one twenty they laid up the two on Jacksonville.

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Speaker 5: And what else was it?

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Speaker 4: Oh, Tennessee one twenty three Tennessee also minus one and

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a half and two on Tennessee. You notice they bet

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those minus ones that moved through that key number or

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up to that key number of three.

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Speaker 5: That's where they backed off.

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Speaker 4: So you got to be cautious there because three is

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just such a key number. We're talking about preseason right now.

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If you don't get out ahead of the market, you

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may be better off just waiting to get your money

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down a little bit better cause again, like you don't

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want to be taking the worst of it. I talked

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about it and yesterday's wager to talk today where with

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even the New England game, there was only one question.

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When the game goes from minus one to minus six,

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you can't lay the favorite anymore. The only question is

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is there now value on the underdog? You never want

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to be the one laying that's six because even if

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they do cover and win by ten, you didn't place

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a good bet. And if you get into that habit

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because you think it's going to be a blowout and

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not really paying attention that the line has already moved significantly,

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you're not getting your money in good and that's the

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goal if you're trying to make money doing this again,

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the ultimate goal is to cash tickets. But sometimes you

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could place a bad bet and cash a ticket, and

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that gets you into the habit of being okay with

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placing bad bets, and you just don't want to do that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, you and Andy Lang had a great

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discussion a couple of weeks ago on that on wager

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Talk today, and I was on afterwards.

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Speaker 3: I saw it afterwards, and I.

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Speaker 2: Agree with what both you were saying, but I was

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on your side more and that I hadn't talked to

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Andy said, you know about closing line value, You're never

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gonna You're never gonna win less games in the long run,

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beating closing line values.

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Speaker 3: That's the best quote.

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Speaker 4: I need to write that down because you said that before, Yeah,

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and I tried to remember it and because it would.

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Speaker 2: Kill me when I was waivery to hopefully say it

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in that segment, because I think that's the best thing

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to say, is that you're always going to win more

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bets by having a better number. It's mathematically impossible. But

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where I think where Andy was saying, he just didn't

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say it the way I would have said it, is

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that it could still.

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Speaker 3: Be a good bet.

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Speaker 2: For example, say a team should be at minus ten

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point favorite. You get him at minus three, it's a

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great bet. You still get him at minus six, it's

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still a solid bet, right, And even if that's the

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closing line, if you really think the true line is ten,

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so you can have the best of both worlds, but

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it's always better to have the better number. I think

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that's where I kind of got lost a little bit.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree, like and it's hard to argue that

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the closing line is not more efficient than the opening line, correct,

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you know what I mean, just because you have more

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information by the time the line closes, so it should

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be more accurate of the true implied win probability. Again,

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if you don't know a player's injured early in the week,

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but he's hurt later in the week, that's going to

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adjust the line. So like that closing line is going

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to be more efficient if you don't know it's going

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to be raining, snowing, or windy on Saturday five days prior,

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that will affect the betting line, the total. Like so again,

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it's it's hard to argue that. It's kind of hard

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to you know, in twenty twenty five, it's strange that

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we're still arguing whether closing line value is going to

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give you a mathematical edge.

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Speaker 5: It's hard.

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Speaker 4: I can't understand why we're still arguing, like just little

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things like that. You would think that by now, you know,

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everybody realizes that, yeah, it kind of matters.

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Speaker 5: To get a good line.

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Speaker 4: But you know, again, people are they still argue that

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parlays is the way to go, you know.

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Speaker 6: What I mean.

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Speaker 3: I think the one you could say.

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Speaker 4: Is have to place it at the same time at

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the same property, and it's hard to get the best

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line that way.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the And you know that's my big argument

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against parlays too, is you got to be you have

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five or you should have five or six sports books

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and you have to get the same number at the

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same sports book on both plays, which is very unlikely.

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That's why long term. That's not a realistic strategy, and

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if you're back testing that it's full gold because you're

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not really looking at the actual sport. By the way,

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something you did mention on the closing line value I

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thoroughly agreed with because you and I think alike with

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the financial market correlations is on the closing price in

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the stock market, commodity, whatever you want to look at

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you're doing back testing, I'm usually using the closing price

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for my back test because the closing price, once again

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takes everything into account more than the opening price or

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even the midday price, because you have no news and

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information and it's going to be down for several hours.

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So once again, the closing price and the financial markets,

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the closing price in the sports betting markets is always

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the most efficient price. Let me ask you about these

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NFL line moves, though, one thing I will say about

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closing line values, it probably is not as important as

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ten years ago because I think the opening numbers are

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sharper now than they weren't ten years ago, and the

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midday numbers are sharper and they get corrected sooner. As

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you've pointed out all the time with your Steam report,

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these NFL lines just continue to move. It's crazy what

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we see. The Ravens obviously went from a one point

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favorite six point dog. They went outright. We see Cleveland

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get heavy bet against they win by twenty. But the

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other two big line moves last night they went easy.

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You have to make your I guess. The bottom line

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is what I said earlier. You have to have your

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own true number right, and if there's still value, there's value.

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You have to know what the numbers should be and

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not worry about all this other stuff.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and you also got to keep in mind that

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where we are and right now in the NFL season,

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the books are also guessing a bit, you know what

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I mean, Like they don't have the information they're going

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to have in the regular season. And we see that

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with MMA all the time. Like that, the NFL markets

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so efficient. We're just not accustomed to seeing it without

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injuries or something significant. But we see it in the

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MMA market all the time, where the first book that

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goes to market, they'll bring out Fighter as the favorite,

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and if you look at the line move, would in

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two minutes it flips and Fighter B becomes the favorite,

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and it keeps climbing towards Fighters be's position. So there's

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going to be those inefficiencies. They're going to get it

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wrong sometimes, and that's where that comes into play. Like

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you said, if you already have your number, what you're

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think you should be shopping at, then your gold. It's

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kind of like I say, if you're gonna go shopping

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for a car, you're not gonna go blindly shopping for

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a car. You're gonna have already done a little research

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and going in with a price in your head of

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what I should be paying for it. You're not gonna

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walk in the guy's gonna tell it's fifty four thousand.

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You're gonna be like, Okay, I'll take it, whether not

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knowing whether I should only be paying forty four, whether

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I'm getting a great deal I should be paying sixty four,

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You're gonna have done that research a little bit before.

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And I think it's the same with sports betting, like

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you need to get out ahead of the matchups a

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little bit, not wait till game date, have an idea

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of what.

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Speaker 5: The line you should be.

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Speaker 4: And you can't do that for every sport because I

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don't know every team and every market, but the ones

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you do know, like at least for those, try to

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write down your own line before you ever look up,

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because you may determine sometimes that they're just way off.

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And you know, if you trust your number, you're gonna

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find some value that way.

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Speaker 2: And I'll get some baseball from you here in a

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moment before we leave. But I'll point this out. It's preseasons, tough.

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Preseasons totally information based. It's a completely different handicap obviously

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than the regular season. But the best advice I could

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give new betters for this football season, and before you

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look at a point spread on Sunday whenever they come

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out Sunday afternoon Sunday night for the next week, make

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your own numbers. I've been doing this since the nineties,

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and it's harder now not to see the numbers right away.

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Back in the day, it was easy not to see them.

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You can do your own work and then check them.

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Now they're everywhere. They're popping up on your phone probably,

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but you start seeing the numbers and thinking that's the

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true number. You have to have a number beforehand. And

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it's the best advice I can give young handicappers is

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make your own number. What do you think it should be?

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What you think it might be and what it should be,

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and then you'll know where it doesn't look right, and

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then when it moves, you'll know if is there's still

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value latter in the week or not if you can

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play it. I mean, is this something you've done as well?

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You make your own numbers.

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Speaker 4: Always, And I was taught that from really young, you know,

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when I first broke in and it was every guys

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were talking about power ratings and I didn't even understand

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what they were. And then that was explained to me,

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and I was searching for the sharpest power ratings and

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trying to learn how to create my own. And it's

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just a process that you start to learn from different guys.

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And I am totally in the practice of doing that

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for every sport that I'm confident in, Like, I have

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never looked at the UFC lines without having already written

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down my numbers because I realized I used to get

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biased before I had the confidence it would bias me.

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Or now I look up and I'm like, oh, wait,

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I think fighter A should be favored, not fight er B.

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And a lot of times what happens is the line

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closes with fighter A as the favorite, and I'm like Okay,

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I was correct. You start to have confidence when you

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see that, and you start being willing to bet your

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opinion and your numbers the more you see that the

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line's following what you're saying. Even do it paper trading.

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You don't have to put up your own money. Just

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practice that. Write them down for today's NFL or week

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one NFL what you think the lines should be, today's

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UFC what you think the line should be, or next

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week's pay per view, and then compare yours and see

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does the market move in my direction or way from me?

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And what are the end results? Like, you can do

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that without risking your capital. You can practice that. Again,

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you're not gonna emotion only. It's you're not going to

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be like when you're betting real money. But you can

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still put your theories in the practice. You can still,

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like you like to say, back test it and see, like,

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am I on the right road to creating good numbers?

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Speaker 5: Like does my opinion? Is it on point?

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Speaker 4: And I think that's the best way you could do it.

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Write down what you think the line should be and

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then compare it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm big on paper trading for both financial markets,

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and you can do it in the sports betting markets.

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One thing I'll add, though, is that it's so important

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to have a little skin in the game. I'd recommend

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even putting a dollar down on each place. Honestly, a

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single dollar or five dollars, it's ever going to make

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you somewhat take it serious where you don't just brush

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it off that Sunday night, of that Saturday night for

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the next week. And you know, I tell yourself, if

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I get a two or three point difference, I'm putting

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five dollars on that game every week, even if it's

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ten games. You'll have some action. You probably have some

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fun with it. You have some action bets, and it'll

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make you take it serious because you don't have to

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go out there and start betting five hundred thousand dollars

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a game until you fine tune your skills. And that's

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the same thing with the financial markets. Johnny, I'll let

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you run here.

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Speaker 3: But what else?

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Speaker 2: You got one on basebunny things jump out there?

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Before game one yesterday, two series bets got steamed. I

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released one of the subscribers because I liked it.

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Speaker 3: The New York.

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Speaker 4: Yankees at minus one oh five, they actually, you know,

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they lost game one, So for us to win that bet,

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they got to win today and they gotta win Sunday.

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We didn't bet them in Game one, even though they

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did get steamed on screen, we didn't touch that sign.

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Speaker 5: We just have them for the series.

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Speaker 4: So we need the Yankees today, and the Yankees actually

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did get steamed to day at plus one oh five

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and even money. They also bet Tampa Bay before Game

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one Tampa Bay plus one sixty. They also lost Game one,

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so now Tampa Bay's got to win the next two

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where that series bet is lost. As far as signs

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for today, nine to fifty six, Pittsburgh plus one oh five,

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even money, nine sixty two, Saint Louis at even money,

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nine sixty three, Colorado plus two hundred and plus one

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and a half on the run line, New York Yankees,

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I gave you, and then nine seventy four Minnesota plus

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one oh five.

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Speaker 5: So if you notice, it's.

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Speaker 4: All those short dogs where it seems like coin flip

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kind of games, and the favorite side that's going a

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little higher seems to be giving a little value to

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these coin flip dogs. Only one total two totals that

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stuck out nine to seventy three over eight and a

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half even money Kansas City, Minnesota, and nine to sixty

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nine under ten up to minus one twenty five Athletics,

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and Baltimore.

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Speaker 5: I don't have a lot of volume in MLB.

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Speaker 4: I only gave you the signs and the totals that

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I saw confirmation, like multiple groups on those sides. Because again,

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with so much going on today and the sports books,

364
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you know, having to pay attention to everything, there'll be

365
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a lot of manipulation going on, especially in baseball.

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Speaker 5: Where they can move these money lines all over the place.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's something to keep in mind, you know. With

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more sports on the book of the board, more manipulation

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occurs in some of these other sports. Johnny the Greek,

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you find him obviously today at eleven am Eastern here

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on last call, but every Monday through Friday at noon eastern,

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not in Pacific your time, since you've been up at

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five am. That's Pacific time. I hope, I hope it

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wasn't five am Eastern.

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Speaker 5: No, No, no, no, what.

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Speaker 2: Else you got go on? What you got going on

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at wait to talk anything else? And they do the

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steam room. I think you had that.

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Speaker 4: He was a yes, we had that yesterday. We had

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that yesterday. It was a really good time, went over

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a lot. So I have my UFC package up. There'll

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be more plays in there today. Already have a couple

383
00:16:16,879 --> 00:16:20,279
including four percent best bets. Baseball package will be up

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00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:24,440
within the next thirty minutes. We don't have WNBA today.

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We isolated another bet yesterday that got the w Those

386
00:16:27,279 --> 00:16:29,679
are We're very selective with those. And of course I

387
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have my NFL preseason package for Saturday and for Sunday,

388
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and I have the futures up as well. NFL College

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00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:40,679
Football combo package with futures and week won College Football's

390
00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:44,039
already up three bets. I think we released already in

391
00:16:44,039 --> 00:16:46,679
that package. So busy time, man. Hope you guys have

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a great weekend through some damage today.

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Speaker 2: You've also got two free plays for college football on

394
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your page right now as I'm looking at it, in

395
00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,120
advance for the mid August and then also an NFL

396
00:16:55,159 --> 00:16:58,320
regular season free play an MMA free play for tonight.

397
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I mean, that's not a reason four free plays right there.

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Go to his page, Johnny the Greek wager Talk dot

399
00:17:04,599 --> 00:17:06,279
com and you can catch him again this Monday at

400
00:17:06,279 --> 00:17:08,240
noon Easter with Andy lying here on Wager talk today.

401
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Speaker 3: He's get back to work.

402
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Speaker 5: Love you, brother, Wait hard enough, you're the man, bro.

403
00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:13,119
Speaker 3: Good luck, Thank you.

404
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:15,559
Speaker 2: So that's one guy that's been in Vegas since the nineties.

405
00:17:15,599 --> 00:17:17,359
Let's bring in another guy that's been in Vegas since

406
00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,279
the nineties, Teddy. I think it was nineteen ninety nine,

407
00:17:20,319 --> 00:17:22,799
if I'm not mistaken. I started in ninety six. I

408
00:17:22,799 --> 00:17:24,839
think you started. It was a full time in ninety nine,

409
00:17:24,839 --> 00:17:26,400
not that you and I weren't doing this for years

410
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,960
before that. What's the official start date for you?

411
00:17:29,599 --> 00:17:31,920
Speaker 1: August sixth, nineteen ninety eight?

412
00:17:32,039 --> 00:17:34,480
Speaker 3: Was it day ninety eight? Okay, ninety eight? I short

413
00:17:34,519 --> 00:17:36,920
at you a year in the previous century. Now.

414
00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:39,519
Speaker 1: The next summer, the first year I came out here,

415
00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:42,119
and I lived in an apartment. You know, I was

416
00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:44,319
just trying to figure out what was going on. That

417
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,480
next summer I went back to Michigan, sold the house,

418
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and brought Cara out here.

419
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Speaker 3: Oh wow, I didn't realize that aspect though.

420
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Speaker 1: Summer in ninety nine was when, you know, it was

421
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a I'm like, this is a this is something I'm

422
00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:56,400
going to do for a while.

423
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Speaker 2: It was officially official in ninety nine, sure, but the

424
00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,160
approbationary period was over.

425
00:18:03,039 --> 00:18:04,599
Speaker 3: And ninety eight was also.

426
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,440
Speaker 1: You guys were just talking about power ratings the first

427
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,960
year I was out here. That was the first year

428
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:11,880
where I'm like, I gotta start making power ratings. Let's

429
00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:13,920
figure out how to do it. And my advice for

430
00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,079
anyone out there that wants to do power ratings. You know,

431
00:18:16,079 --> 00:18:17,920
you guys Knew and Johnny were just talking about it, right,

432
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,359
this is how you start making power ratings. You just start.

433
00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:23,880
You just start, and then you adjust and you go

434
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,920
through box scores and you read the recaps and you adjust.

435
00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:30,720
But the key to good power ratings is not it's

436
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:32,680
it takes experience. You got to do it for a

437
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:37,240
little while. But there are no barriers to entry for

438
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:39,160
power ratings. All you do is you list to thirty

439
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:40,880
two teams in the NFL. All right, let's put down

440
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,200
some numbers, you know. And that's literally and that's my

441
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:44,640
first set of power ratings. I'm like, all right, well,

442
00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:47,880
let's look at the markets. And I copied three other

443
00:18:48,039 --> 00:18:50,799
sets and kind of merged them together into one. I'm like,

444
00:18:50,839 --> 00:18:52,440
all right, this weren't going to start. Then I'll adjust

445
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,759
from here. And the first year they were pretty useless.

446
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,000
By year two, I'm like, all right, there might be

447
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,839
something here. By year three I felt real comfortable by

448
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,039
power rating. So it's not going to be an overnight process.

449
00:19:04,839 --> 00:19:09,480
But this day, you know, obviously my fourth decade in Vegas.

450
00:19:10,519 --> 00:19:12,720
You have a way of doing things. But when you're

451
00:19:12,759 --> 00:19:16,480
first developing a way to do things like I'm sure

452
00:19:16,519 --> 00:19:20,039
many of our viewers are doing now, just got to start.

453
00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:20,640
Speaker 3: You know.

454
00:19:20,799 --> 00:19:24,559
Speaker 1: You start and little iterations, little literations, change it, change it,

455
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:28,200
and after a period of time they'll be used to it.

456
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:30,240
Speaker 3: But yeah, they'll be used for it.

457
00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:31,839
Speaker 1: And what you been able to accomplish, I mean, I

458
00:19:31,839 --> 00:19:33,519
don't know how you started making power ratings, Steve.

459
00:19:33,799 --> 00:19:34,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll tell you.

460
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:35,960
Speaker 2: One thing I wasn't doing in the nineties was using

461
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,960
a spreadsheet. I doubt you were either. I mean I

462
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:41,400
was using Excel. Were you in the nineties. I don't

463
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,599
recall if I was. I mean, I definitely started pretty

464
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,839
early doing it. I mean Google wasn't around til ninety nine,

465
00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:48,839
so I wasn't using Google sheets like I am now

466
00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:51,319
in the nineties, that's for sure. But yeah, I guess

467
00:19:51,319 --> 00:19:53,200
you know, I definitely was using spreadsheets even the College

468
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:54,680
of the mid nineties, I might have been, but I

469
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:56,519
wasn't relying on them like I do now, let's put

470
00:19:56,519 --> 00:20:00,319
it that way, And they're very powerful free tool AI here.

471
00:20:00,319 --> 00:20:01,839
Now this is something we didn't have even just a

472
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,279
couple of years ago. I'm sure you all could probably

473
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,799
start using chat GPT and get some good free advice.

474
00:20:06,839 --> 00:20:09,000
But the biggest thing I tell people, Teddy is that

475
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,039
you know, a power rating is not as mystical as

476
00:20:12,079 --> 00:20:14,400
it sounds, and the point spread isn't as mystical as

477
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:18,279
it seems. Either it's margin of it's projected margin of victory.

478
00:20:18,279 --> 00:20:21,880
And if you take margin of victory all things equal,

479
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:23,519
it's going to be close to the points where the

480
00:20:23,519 --> 00:20:25,799
problem is not all Apple's. To do Apple comparison, you've

481
00:20:25,799 --> 00:20:27,559
got to make sure that strength of schedules are equal.

482
00:20:27,599 --> 00:20:30,720
So basically a starting pot for me was was margin

483
00:20:30,759 --> 00:20:32,920
of victory with strength of schedule factored in. And that's

484
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:35,319
kind of what the Sagregan rating was back in the nineties,

485
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:37,920
and that was about as good as any rating. And

486
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,000
if you do that now, it's a great starting point.

487
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:41,599
And yes, it's going to be very close to the

488
00:20:41,599 --> 00:20:43,400
point spreading your power is. By the way, should be

489
00:20:43,519 --> 00:20:44,400
very close.

490
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:45,480
Speaker 3: To the point spread.

491
00:20:45,519 --> 00:20:47,559
Speaker 2: If you're finding like a seven point difference in every

492
00:20:47,559 --> 00:20:50,039
single NFL game an NBA game, then you're probably doing

493
00:20:50,079 --> 00:20:52,400
something wrong. Because the point spreads are accurate, they're efficient.

494
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:54,640
But then you got to where I think where the

495
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:58,839
real special sauce comes in, and the skill is evaluating

496
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:03,279
situational aspect to a game, injuries, situations, and how many

497
00:21:03,319 --> 00:21:06,519
points that's worth one way or the other. So points spread,

498
00:21:06,559 --> 00:21:09,839
for me, really it's pretty vanilla. It's a starting point.

499
00:21:09,839 --> 00:21:11,759
It's probably pretty close to what the line should be,

500
00:21:12,519 --> 00:21:14,519
but then it's the adjustments you make. And also i'll

501
00:21:14,559 --> 00:21:15,839
throw this out to because I know you've talked a

502
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,119
lot about this in recent years. This home field advantage

503
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,200
is a lot different than when we start in the

504
00:21:20,279 --> 00:21:23,799
nineteen nineties, and i'll your take on that. Do you

505
00:21:23,839 --> 00:21:25,920
think the sports books still accurately reflected that?

506
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:26,799
Speaker 3: Have they finally caught on?

507
00:21:26,799 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 2: Because I feel like about a decade ago, when NFL

508
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,559
home field was going from three to two to one,

509
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,200
you know, diminishing returns on the home field advantage in

510
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,240
a lot of sports that that wasn't That was an

511
00:21:36,319 --> 00:21:38,680
edge I found, at least initially with some power ratings.

512
00:21:38,839 --> 00:21:41,599
Speaker 1: Sure, I actually have a lot of fun betting road teams, right.

513
00:21:41,759 --> 00:21:44,400
It helped me a great period of time where the

514
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:46,640
home field advantage was absolutely And I don't even know

515
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:50,559
if brief is the right word, because I've always trended

516
00:21:50,599 --> 00:21:53,480
towards dogs, and I've always trended towards road teams and found,

517
00:21:53,599 --> 00:21:54,839
you know, home field to be able to you know,

518
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:56,920
and that's not like I'm only playing dog and I'm

519
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,839
only playing road teams, but I've often find that's where

520
00:21:59,839 --> 00:22:03,839
the value is. And again, when it comes to making lines,

521
00:22:04,319 --> 00:22:07,920
I make lines for college football with my set of

522
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,119
power rings. I make lines for NFL with my set

523
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,599
of powerings, I make lines for NBA. I work three

524
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,400
sports with my powerings. I don't make lines every day

525
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,039
for MLB. I have an idea where I expect the

526
00:22:18,079 --> 00:22:21,240
line to be just from my familiarity with the teams

527
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:25,119
and the pitchers and all of that. But that effort

528
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:30,160
for baseball, with starting pitchers and bullpen various. I much

529
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:34,680
more look for teams to ride an MLB than oh,

530
00:22:34,799 --> 00:22:37,599
today's line is a mispriced for this squad, Whereas in

531
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,920
the NFL, you're definitely looking for you know, in the NFL,

532
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,240
when a team plays good for three weeks, guess what,

533
00:22:44,319 --> 00:22:46,359
Now they're an overvided commodity. You know, it doesn't take

534
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,559
long for the NFL marketplace to move. Other sports and

535
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:54,279
marketplace moves much slower, and that offers real opportunity for

536
00:22:54,319 --> 00:22:57,200
betters who are paying attention and making powering numbers for

537
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:57,720
every game.

538
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Teddy gets off to historically strong sparts in

539
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,359
the NFL a week one now over the last ten years,

540
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,680
thirty and eleven. That's right, thirty and eleven, seventy three

541
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:10,079
percent and eight and two eighty percent on week one,

542
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,119
five percent. Big ticket place you might want to pay

543
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,079
attention to how you get started in the NFL. Of course,

544
00:23:14,079 --> 00:23:16,160
his NFL season wins report is locked and loaded right

545
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,359
now on his page at wager talk dot com. And

546
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,480
me are one oh three and fifty two sixty six

547
00:23:21,519 --> 00:23:23,160
percent for the last twenty four years. You know, Teddy,

548
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,119
I talked about all the experience on the show today.

549
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,920
Some of our viewers haven't been alive for twenty four years.

550
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:29,920
You've gone one hundred and three and fifty two those

551
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:31,920
last twenty four years. In the futures reports, you might

552
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,000
want to check that out. His NFL Futures Report is

553
00:23:34,039 --> 00:23:36,920
also available, including seventeen and four in those five percent

554
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,880
big ticket plays, I believe was it Saints under last

555
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:41,079
year was the five percent winner?

556
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 3: Right? Yeah, you had a big one for this season.

557
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,640
Speaker 1: It was a big sweat after the first two weeks.

558
00:23:47,039 --> 00:23:48,960
You remember one as came out last year and dominated

559
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,759
the first two weeks. Uh, And I was sitting there

560
00:23:51,759 --> 00:23:53,279
going but.

561
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 3: All twelve?

562
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 1: It ends well, but speak when you talk about an

563
00:23:58,319 --> 00:24:02,039
under like that, depth is a huge piece of a handicap,

564
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,359
and the Saints had real depth issues last year. I've

565
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,200
got an under again this year is my five percent

566
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,079
big ticket and I think depth issues could rise up

567
00:24:09,079 --> 00:24:09,680
there as well.

568
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:11,640
Speaker 2: Well, it makes sense, right, the Dept's gonna hurt you

569
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:13,880
later in the season, so that's why you can't sweat

570
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:15,319
the fast start. But it also goes what I was

571
00:24:15,319 --> 00:24:18,279
gonna say. It goes back to how random week one

572
00:24:18,319 --> 00:24:19,960
and week two can be. I mean, I've said that

573
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:22,200
it's always been Week five of the NFL preseason. Well

574
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,079
I can't say that anymore because there's only three weeks.

575
00:24:24,079 --> 00:24:27,200
So now Week one could be Week four the NFL preseason,

576
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,160
which in a regard, I think makes it more random.

577
00:24:29,519 --> 00:24:31,440
So once again, you can't and you do find good

578
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:33,839
value sometimes fading teams after weeks one or two, or

579
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,759
vice versa jumping on board after some misleading starts. Let's

580
00:24:37,759 --> 00:24:39,759
focus while I've got you on some NFL preseason I

581
00:24:39,759 --> 00:24:41,359
think you want to We're gonna do a big game

582
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,039
breakdown for tomorrow's game. You still want to do that

583
00:24:43,039 --> 00:24:45,359
game here in a little bit. The Bears Dolphins. Yeah,

584
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,359
let's talk Bears Dolphins. But I just saw some stuff

585
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,279
pop up on the said let's talk to night's games

586
00:24:49,279 --> 00:24:50,680
first and then we'll close out with a little look

587
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:51,440
at tomorrow's game.

588
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:53,839
Speaker 1: Sure, sure, just some of the stuff that's popped up.

589
00:24:53,839 --> 00:24:56,119
Partying like at nineteen nine. Always appreciated you. Roger Long,

590
00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:00,960
Roger's been around two. Yeah, he's awesome. And there was

591
00:25:01,559 --> 00:25:06,640
a question about the documentary that I was in. Let's

592
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,279
called Life on the Line. You can still find it.

593
00:25:08,279 --> 00:25:12,160
It's on Apple, It's on all your streaming platforms. That

594
00:25:12,319 --> 00:25:18,440
was for the Steelers Packers Super Bowl with that twenty

595
00:25:18,559 --> 00:25:20,799
eleven or something of that nature. But yeah, there was

596
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,400
a documentary that my friend Isaac fieeder Maide and you

597
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,599
can still find it, and there are things about it

598
00:25:26,599 --> 00:25:27,920
that I think are still good, so.

599
00:25:27,839 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 3: It's held up over time.

600
00:25:30,519 --> 00:25:34,319
Speaker 1: There were questions about the Giants and the build is

601
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:36,200
leen g men in this ball game? I do I

602
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,319
have not pulled the trigger, And of course we've seen

603
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:40,079
just wild line groops on this. You know, there was

604
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,880
at one point the Giants were laying three and Buffalo

605
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:45,839
was plus three. And at one point Buffalo was laying

606
00:25:45,839 --> 00:25:47,880
three and the Giants were plus three, and now we're

607
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,440
seeing two and a half across the board thirty seven

608
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:52,240
and a half. The g Men do have a QB

609
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,400
rotation that we like. In August, there's urgency for the

610
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:56,240
backup job.

611
00:25:56,759 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 2: But Dermott's been good. Yeah, that's the that's the quandary

612
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:07,119
in this game, right. I think that's the only reason

613
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:08,759
we'd see the bill. I think that, like you said that,

614
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,000
on paper, the quarterback situation probably would normally have money

615
00:26:12,039 --> 00:26:13,759
coming in on a team like the Giants, the more

616
00:26:13,759 --> 00:26:17,039
desperate team in the preseason, but McDermott's got the second

617
00:26:17,039 --> 00:26:20,400
best point spread record behind a guy named Harball who

618
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,240
became a big dog the other night and still won outright.

619
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,119
Although he had been Owen seven ats before.

620
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 3: That's Eddy as you know.

621
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 1: Sure, which shows us how good he was prior incredible. Uh,

622
00:26:31,279 --> 00:26:34,799
you know, harbors as money as money could get for August.

623
00:26:34,839 --> 00:26:37,559
The mcdermot's another guy who cares about winning in August.

624
00:26:38,319 --> 00:26:42,720
And from a from a whose third stringers are better standpoint,

625
00:26:43,599 --> 00:26:46,480
my finger's gonna point to the Giants. You know, Giants

626
00:26:46,519 --> 00:26:49,200
have an ultraspeedition on that roster. Giants have the better

627
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,200
undrafted rookie free agents. If you had a choice from

628
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:52,640
going to Buffalo or going to the New York, you

629
00:26:52,799 --> 00:26:55,200
go to New York because the roster spots are available there.

630
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,279
So the lean here is the g men for me,

631
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,079
I did not pull the trigger. In fact, I haven't

632
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:04,440
met anything for the clients today in NFL preseason action.

633
00:27:04,519 --> 00:27:05,759
Speaker 3: Despite that it's a deeper card.

634
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,160
Speaker 1: I am in action on one of the two games

635
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:09,880
tomorrow and four I'll said and done. It might be

636
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:11,359
an action on both the two games tomorrow.

637
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:11,839
Speaker 3: We'll see.

638
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 2: And you know, Johnny mentioned this, and I knew you

639
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,559
were probably chumping at the bit offset when he said

640
00:27:16,599 --> 00:27:18,480
three is the key number. Because I know something you do,

641
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,759
I'll say, you preach this is that one in two's

642
00:27:21,799 --> 00:27:23,680
are maybe more important than threes in the preseason.

643
00:27:23,759 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 1: Explain that, sure, So now that we have ties, you know,

644
00:27:28,079 --> 00:27:30,640
back in the day before there were ties in the preseason,

645
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:34,240
the one and the two were extraordinarily you know, because

646
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:38,480
every coach is looking to avoid overtime. You know, you

647
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:40,880
don't need extra snapto and you guys getting hurt when

648
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:44,119
they're tired, So the whole second half, coach would be

649
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,160
going for two to Instead of trying to tie the game,

650
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:49,880
they'll be trying to untie the game. So the ones

651
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,359
in the twos were ones one and a half. Twos

652
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,519
two and a half were extraordinarily important. In the modern era,

653
00:27:55,599 --> 00:27:57,880
where they've changed the rules so you can have ties

654
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:03,720
in preseason, they're not quite as important as they were. Nonetheless,

655
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,400
there is a huge difference between a plus one and

656
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,480
a plus two and a half in August, much bigger

657
00:28:10,519 --> 00:28:12,160
than the difference between a plus one and a plus

658
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:16,079
two and a half in September. In addition, in August

659
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:20,200
in the NFL, I only want to take the points.

660
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:23,400
I don't want money line at plus one, at plus

661
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,799
one and a half, at plus two, at plus two

662
00:28:25,799 --> 00:28:27,119
and a half, I don't want the dog on the

663
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,799
money line. I want those points. Those points often come

664
00:28:29,799 --> 00:28:34,039
into play in the regular season at plus two. You know,

665
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,240
the money line is a very viable option, you know,

666
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,880
plus two and a half, same story for all or

667
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,720
part of your wager. But in the preseason I'm always

668
00:28:44,839 --> 00:28:47,640
taking the points, not looking for the plus price return.

669
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,640
So many of these games get decided by a field

670
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,359
goal or less. There's just not that much difference between

671
00:28:53,359 --> 00:28:56,480
this third string offense and that third string defense. And

672
00:28:56,519 --> 00:28:57,880
that's what we see on the field in the second

673
00:28:57,920 --> 00:28:59,319
half of these games, and we'll see a bunch of

674
00:28:59,319 --> 00:29:00,160
that today, I'm sure.

675
00:29:00,599 --> 00:29:02,359
Speaker 2: Let me ask you about this, Teddy. I was actually

676
00:29:02,359 --> 00:29:04,640
gonna ask Johnny about this. We've covered so many other things.

677
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:06,519
This reminds me a lot of Game three in the

678
00:29:06,599 --> 00:29:09,440
NBA playoffs, home teams down oh two. We're seeing situations

679
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:13,440
where the first half line is the same, sometimes higher

680
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:16,400
than the full game line, and it's all it's interesting.

681
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,640
We have a seven point favorite with Denver tonight first

682
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:20,799
half line is four and a half juice, it's minus six.

683
00:29:20,839 --> 00:29:22,920
It's almost the same even in that one. But you

684
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,480
look at the other ones, like Minnesota four, it's at four.

685
00:29:25,519 --> 00:29:28,960
You know, Jacksonville four to three and a half, Tennessee

686
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:30,519
I think is two and a half three. You're talking

687
00:29:30,519 --> 00:29:32,920
about a lot of games, almost all the games in

688
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,480
which you have a sizeable favorite. It's the same as

689
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,079
the first half line. Now, obviously that's because this information

690
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:42,079
is based usually on quarterback rotation, starters playing longer, which

691
00:29:42,119 --> 00:29:44,200
means all of these second halfs are pick thems, right,

692
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,200
So we have more opportunities different ways to play these

693
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:48,680
games than we did maybe when we started in the

694
00:29:48,759 --> 00:29:51,240
nineties with first half bets. Obviously in game bets did

695
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:54,880
not exist back then on preseason games. Your thoughts on

696
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,000
all this, I mean, any advantage is to be found.

697
00:29:57,119 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 1: Of course, And let's talk about some of these lines.

698
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:00,799
I mean, let's talk about some games in particular, talk

699
00:30:00,799 --> 00:30:05,400
about Houston Minnesota, because all the reports out of both

700
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,680
of these camps is defensive dominating the offense.

701
00:30:08,759 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 3: Defensive dominating the offense.

702
00:30:10,559 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: I mean in Minnesota that's you know, oh my god,

703
00:30:13,279 --> 00:30:15,640
this is the Super Bowl winning defense. And the reports

704
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:19,079
out of a Minnesota's campus is defense, defense unbelievable. We

705
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,880
love the defense, Oh my god, the defense is fantastic.

706
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:24,960
And it's a similar story with DeMeco Ryans and the

707
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,640
Texans where the defense has been the better of the

708
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:32,759
two in training camp. Yeah, look at the total open

709
00:30:32,799 --> 00:30:35,480
thirty six with thirty seven thirty Now I've seen thirty

710
00:30:35,519 --> 00:30:38,079
eight and a halfs out there for two teams that

711
00:30:38,519 --> 00:30:41,599
have been where the defenses have played better than their

712
00:30:41,599 --> 00:30:49,240
offenses in throughout training camp. So why is that urgency?

713
00:30:49,799 --> 00:30:50,279
Speaker 3: Is why?

714
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: Well, first of all, we've seen a heavy move to

715
00:30:53,519 --> 00:30:55,279
the over so far here in week one of the

716
00:30:55,319 --> 00:30:59,720
preseasons for we have now we've had seven preseason game.

717
00:30:59,759 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 3: Six them have gone over the total, and many of

718
00:31:01,279 --> 00:31:01,880
them by margin.

719
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:04,319
Speaker 1: You know, we're not talking about teams that have snuck

720
00:31:04,359 --> 00:31:05,960
over by a half point or by a point. We're

721
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,839
seeing a little bit better red zone execution. We've also

722
00:31:08,839 --> 00:31:10,920
seen a bunch of special teams touchdowns already. We had

723
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,640
a punt return touchdown and a kick return sends it

724
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,160
down to the twenty yard line. And the turnovers for

725
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,599
the Lions Chargers game are all near the goal line,

726
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:20,759
so it's set up short fields. I mean, things have

727
00:31:20,839 --> 00:31:25,160
broken right for overs so far, but we've certainly seen

728
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:29,839
an early trend towards the overs, and with Houston and

729
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,200
Minnesota two teams that have struggled offensively in camp. There's

730
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,160
urgency for those offenses to show something here. Not with

731
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:37,759
my money on the over in that part game, I'll

732
00:31:37,759 --> 00:31:40,519
put it that way, but the markets have clearly moved

733
00:31:40,519 --> 00:31:43,000
in that direction. Two teams that they expect to be

734
00:31:43,039 --> 00:31:45,119
throwing the football a fair bit up and down the

735
00:31:45,119 --> 00:31:48,480
field when it comes to Denver San Francisco, And again,

736
00:31:48,519 --> 00:31:51,039
Denver was a great bet, you know, at minus seven,

737
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,839
not so much but for the forty and end. By

738
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,240
the way, for the text, and it's worth noting with

739
00:31:56,599 --> 00:32:01,680
the injury to CJ. Gardner Johnson that has affected Houston's

740
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:03,880
game plan. And now the injury is not quite as

741
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:05,799
serious as initially thought. It doesn't look like it's gonna

742
00:32:05,799 --> 00:32:07,880
be out for the year. But that was their big

743
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,119
price free agent pickup. When a guy like that gets

744
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:15,039
hurt in a practice in training camp, it can affect

745
00:32:15,079 --> 00:32:17,960
the mentality of a whole team in Houston is built

746
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:22,960
to win defensively, so you wonder if the Texans maybe

747
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:26,200
take a little tap off the gas pedal in this ballgame.

748
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:29,200
The market seem to think they're going to for Denver

749
00:32:29,279 --> 00:32:32,480
San Frian Look every report out of Denver is don't

750
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:36,000
underestimate this team. This team's looking dominant. Bo Nicks is

751
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:38,720
the phenomenal, The offense is clicking, the defense is super

752
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:42,480
Bowl caliber. I mean the joint practice with San Francisco,

753
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:46,559
the joint practice was pretty one sided in favor of

754
00:32:46,559 --> 00:32:48,640
Denver and the forty nine ers. When I talk about

755
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:54,359
preseason rules, per se, one of the rules for preseason

756
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,759
is the teams that are banged up are bet against.

757
00:32:57,519 --> 00:33:00,160
And San Frans banged up all over the place. Here

758
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:01,799
reports a mile long. There's gonna be a ton of

759
00:33:01,799 --> 00:33:04,440
guys that aren't playing. So you have one team that's

760
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,920
looking dominant in both sides of the football, and the

761
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,599
other team is a veteran squad that's banged up already.

762
00:33:10,039 --> 00:33:12,599
You can understand why the money has moved forward Denver.

763
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,279
But if you like the Broncos, it's too late, you know,

764
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,279
and you're not gonna make money in the NFL betting

765
00:33:18,279 --> 00:33:20,240
a team that was plus one at the open when

766
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,359
they're minus seven now, even if the information shows it,

767
00:33:23,359 --> 00:33:26,319
it's just, you know, maybe the Broncos kill him, But

768
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,880
I would not consider that a positive expectation wager at

769
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:33,000
the current number. You know, do something maybe bit san

770
00:33:33,039 --> 00:33:34,119
Fran team total under.

771
00:33:34,799 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 3: Let me ask you this, Teddy on that game.

772
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 2: I know you probably aren't playing it, but if you

773
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:40,559
had to play that game, would you rather lay Denver

774
00:33:40,599 --> 00:33:44,440
minus seven full game or Denver mint is six first

775
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,759
half or minus four and a half minus one thirty

776
00:33:46,799 --> 00:33:47,319
first half?

777
00:33:47,319 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 3: It's basically the same. See where I'm going with that.

778
00:33:50,559 --> 00:33:52,559
Speaker 2: It's very interesting to meet these options you have now

779
00:33:52,599 --> 00:33:55,440
in the betting markets, because obviously Denver's first half should

780
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:57,079
have a huge edge against San Fran. But then if

781
00:33:57,079 --> 00:33:58,880
they're banged up, would you rather just you know, lay

782
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:00,680
an extra point have the full game working for you

783
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:01,559
there in the second half.

784
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 1: No, I've been reading good reports out of every part

785
00:34:04,279 --> 00:34:07,720
of Denver. I'd rather have the longer game to cover

786
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:11,800
their second string. Their third string defense can make some noise.

787
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:14,760
I don't mind Jared's did him? Or Sam Ellinger?

788
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 3: You know? Yeah, that's true. You got the quarterback edge

789
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,679
probably still too. I'll stay full game.

790
00:34:19,639 --> 00:34:24,519
Speaker 1: But once it gets to seven, now you got to

791
00:34:24,559 --> 00:34:27,679
win by eight. You know, if you win by a touchdown,

792
00:34:27,679 --> 00:34:30,719
you don't make any money. It's too high. But if

793
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:32,519
I had to play it, it would only be this it'd

794
00:34:32,519 --> 00:34:34,760
only be the Denver side, it'd only be the minus seven.

795
00:34:35,119 --> 00:34:35,559
Speaker 3: I don't.

796
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I had a wrong side. I hate having

797
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:43,599
wrong side in the preseason because you look stupid and

798
00:34:43,599 --> 00:34:45,480
your clients go, what the hell we betting this stuff for?

799
00:34:45,679 --> 00:34:47,079
I had a wrong side gets so I thought there

800
00:34:47,159 --> 00:34:52,519
was value with Washington uh uh, and they give up

801
00:34:52,519 --> 00:34:54,280
a kick return touchdown to open the game. And it

802
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,719
never got me better than that. It was a complete disaster,

803
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:03,559
complete wrong side loser. But part of the process is

804
00:35:04,199 --> 00:35:06,760
part of my thought process is New England should be

805
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:07,800
laying this what's New England?

806
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:08,280
Speaker 6: There's not.

807
00:35:08,639 --> 00:35:11,280
Speaker 1: I wasn't sensing that urgency from the past, and I

808
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:15,119
was wrong in that assessment, dead wrong, you know, first

809
00:35:15,159 --> 00:35:18,280
loser of the preseason, and it really, you know, didn't

810
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:19,760
make me very happy. I'm sure it didn't make the

811
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,280
clients very happy. Uh, because you know, we don't like

812
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:25,000
wrong again in August. There's a reason you're you're not

813
00:35:25,039 --> 00:35:29,840
betting anything based on your opinion. Everything's information, everything, and

814
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:31,639
I couldn't find information. I said in New England's all

815
00:35:31,679 --> 00:35:34,440
that interest any more interested? And of course they were.

816
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:39,360
The markets were right, and I was wrong in this instance.

817
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:43,519
With den with the San Francisco Uh so, yeah, with

818
00:35:43,559 --> 00:35:49,800
Denver San Fran it's that, you know, Denver's interested, San

819
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,000
Fran isn't, and the marks are showing it. But once

820
00:35:53,039 --> 00:35:54,599
you start getting the land of winning by more than

821
00:35:54,599 --> 00:35:57,199
a touchdown, it can and does happen. But it has

822
00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:58,119
priced me out of the game.

823
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:00,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's where it really comes down to, is

824
00:36:00,599 --> 00:36:02,559
you know how much value is left when I moved

825
00:36:02,599 --> 00:36:05,199
six seven, eight points. We had a question earlier in

826
00:36:05,199 --> 00:36:07,440
the chat about do you rely on power ratings at

827
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:08,280
all in the preseason?

828
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:10,079
Speaker 3: No, yeah, I think would.

829
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 1: What I'm trying to do in August is take my

830
00:36:13,039 --> 00:36:17,280
opinion out of the equation about the teams completely. Literally,

831
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,159
all I want to bet on is this coach is

832
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:23,679
quote this defense, cordinators, quote this offense cordinators, quote this

833
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:27,199
coaching track record, This team's all banged up and isn't

834
00:36:27,199 --> 00:36:28,599
going to be playing anyone or has to. You know,

835
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:30,840
I like the Texans today where you're worried about that

836
00:36:32,079 --> 00:36:34,920
or San Francisco. You know, and when teams are injured,

837
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:40,000
that's far bigger than any opinion you want to have

838
00:36:40,039 --> 00:36:42,840
about the teams. But you know, in the regular season,

839
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,360
New England's not laying a touchdown to Washington, all right.

840
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:47,639
It's not your opinions about how good the teams are.

841
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,159
It's not how good your opinions about the quarterbacks are.

842
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,519
It's the information. The only to find the info is

843
00:36:52,559 --> 00:36:52,880
to dig.

844
00:36:53,519 --> 00:36:54,079
Speaker 3: So you read.

845
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:58,159
Speaker 1: You read a lot beat writers in August, probably more

846
00:36:58,199 --> 00:37:00,280
than any other time of the year. You know. I

847
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,760
try to read multiple beat writers for every team every day,

848
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,599
and you know that's how I spend my days this

849
00:37:05,679 --> 00:37:09,320
time of the year, clicking around what infoo we find?

850
00:37:09,599 --> 00:37:13,599
Is it worth betting now? So it's not about opinions

851
00:37:13,599 --> 00:37:15,719
at all. It's only information.

852
00:37:16,559 --> 00:37:18,159
Speaker 2: So on the way out, let's give somebody a good

853
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:20,079
give everybody something for tomorrow on Sunday. We have a

854
00:37:20,119 --> 00:37:21,519
ton of games I think like eight today, but we

855
00:37:21,519 --> 00:37:23,400
do have two tomorrow on Sunday in the NFL, and

856
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:25,679
the early game on Sunday at one o'clock Eastern is

857
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:29,719
Dolphins and Bears. Bears have a new head coach, right,

858
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:31,920
and we always talk about motivation in the preseasons. I'm

859
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:33,159
curious your thoughts on this game.

860
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:38,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk about Miami and Chicago early start NFL

861
00:37:38,679 --> 00:37:43,079
preseason action on Sunday, and of course right now looking

862
00:37:43,119 --> 00:37:47,320
at the Odds Logic live screen, I'm seeing the Bears

863
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,840
minus three total of this game sitting thirty four and

864
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:54,480
a half thirty five. Now for Miami, we've seen two

865
00:37:54,639 --> 00:37:56,239
look really good in camp, but it doesn't look like

866
00:37:56,239 --> 00:38:01,719
you're gonna play Zach Wilson and Quinn youwers Quin yours

867
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:04,360
a six round are out of Texas, should get ample

868
00:38:04,639 --> 00:38:09,559
of playing time. Wilson and you know is pretty much

869
00:38:09,599 --> 00:38:11,480
locked into the backup job. Viewers are going to try

870
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:13,800
for it. Put again a six round rookie not likely

871
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:16,840
to get there. The quotes was the youers is managing

872
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:20,840
the playbook, Well, there's a nine day install process that

873
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:25,760
he's just gone through often quitter Darren Bevel quote every

874
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,800
day talking about you know, yours, who's gonna be on

875
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:31,679
the field when this point spreads it decided quote every

876
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:33,320
day comes out and gets a little bit better. He's

877
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:35,000
putting a lot of good stuff on tape, doesn't make

878
00:38:35,039 --> 00:38:36,760
a lot of mistakes. When he makes a mistake, we're

879
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:38,280
able to get it corrected. He's willing to work on

880
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:40,719
the little details we're asking him to and we're happy

881
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:45,199
with where he's at youers quote, I'm still learning, trying

882
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:46,559
to play my game at the end of the day

883
00:38:46,559 --> 00:38:48,280
and have fun doing it. I feel like I'm playing

884
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,239
faster every day and have a good grasp of what's

885
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:51,719
been installed so far.

886
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:54,599
Speaker 3: The quotes to me.

887
00:38:55,039 --> 00:38:59,159
Speaker 1: Reading between the lines is no, he's not ready.

888
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:00,519
Speaker 6: You know.

889
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:03,280
Speaker 1: Another coaches are saying, yes, I'm ready. He's got a

890
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:04,360
little bit better every day.

891
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:05,559
Speaker 3: He's seeing things. Clearly.

892
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:09,599
Speaker 1: I don't think when you was ready, And those quotes

893
00:39:09,639 --> 00:39:12,039
are both telling me, Yeah, the installs getting there.

894
00:39:12,199 --> 00:39:12,440
Speaker 3: You know.

895
00:39:12,599 --> 00:39:15,320
Speaker 1: It's not an easy offense that they're running down in Miami,

896
00:39:15,559 --> 00:39:18,920
and I would expect some mistakes from this young QB.

897
00:39:20,199 --> 00:39:22,320
These two teams just had a joint practice session. It

898
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:23,039
wasn't pretty.

899
00:39:23,039 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 3: For Miami.

900
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:27,119
Speaker 1: The Bears physically manhandled them both squad both sides of

901
00:39:27,119 --> 00:39:30,960
the football, in particular, the Bear Dennis Allen's defense ate

902
00:39:31,039 --> 00:39:35,880
up Miami's offense. And for Chicago, they too have a

903
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,119
bunch of installs that they've been working on for a

904
00:39:38,159 --> 00:39:42,119
new offense under Ben Johnson. That being said, there were

905
00:39:42,159 --> 00:39:44,320
issues last week at this time with that offense. I

906
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:46,199
didn't get any sense that that's going on this week.

907
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:49,400
At this time. And when you talk about a QB

908
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,320
trio that you might want you money, I don't know

909
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:55,480
how much Kalabills we're going to see. Not much, in

910
00:39:55,519 --> 00:39:59,440
fact none. Tyson Bagent is going to be a Badget's

911
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,440
going to be the start. And then we got case

912
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:05,880
Keenum and Austin Reed. Keenum's been a starter in the league.

913
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,559
Reed's been in this system and was good in the

914
00:40:08,559 --> 00:40:13,599
preseason last August. And the reports from Chicago as Bagent

915
00:40:13,639 --> 00:40:16,880
looking really good so far. So even though it's a

916
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:20,480
new system and a new offense in Chicago, I think

917
00:40:20,519 --> 00:40:22,239
they're a little bit ahead of the curve right now

918
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:24,480
and they're certainly urgency. We can talk about playing at

919
00:40:24,519 --> 00:40:27,079
home with a new coach in his first again, he's

920
00:40:27,079 --> 00:40:30,400
not gonna freak out if they lose, but it feels

921
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:32,559
like the Bears are going to play well in that

922
00:40:32,639 --> 00:40:38,480
early start game tomorrow. If I'm playing, I'm laying with Chicago.

923
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:40,440
And by the way, guys, before I let you go,

924
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,440
we appreciate those likes very very much. Boom hit that

925
00:40:43,599 --> 00:40:49,760
like button, follow wager Talk dot com on Instagram, on

926
00:40:50,119 --> 00:40:53,199
x on YouTube. We have two hundred and ten thousand

927
00:40:53,519 --> 00:40:56,840
followers on our YouTube channel now. It's insane obviously, and

928
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,039
of course leave a comment tell us what you think below.

929
00:41:00,679 --> 00:41:03,760
That's what I think for Chicago and Miami early starting

930
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:05,719
action on Sunday.

931
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 2: Teddy covers one of the best in the business. He's

932
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,119
been doing it a while, just like myself, Johnny the Greek.

933
00:41:12,159 --> 00:41:13,960
Our next guess, Ross Benjamin. By the way, Teddy, there's

934
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,519
a rumor that you and Ross are gonna both be

935
00:41:16,559 --> 00:41:19,320
recording some videos at the Westgate over the next week.

936
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:21,599
Speaker 1: Yeah, Ross is coming to town and he was kind

937
00:41:21,679 --> 00:41:23,199
enough to invite me to join him, and we'll be

938
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:27,039
doing a big college football preview next week. I prepped

939
00:41:27,039 --> 00:41:28,960
on He asked me to prep some stuff and I

940
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:30,880
actually spent a couple of hours prepping it the other

941
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,280
day and I'm gonna work on it this weekend as well.

942
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:36,519
So we should have some good insights for you and

943
00:41:36,559 --> 00:41:40,880
look for that content, free content, more quality, free content

944
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:43,679
from the wager doc dot com team.

945
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:45,679
Speaker 2: And we didn't get to any baseball we had so

946
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:47,440
much football. But do you want to get Teddy's baseball

947
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:49,719
best bets for Saturday, for this Sunday for the weekend.

948
00:41:50,199 --> 00:41:52,599
Check him out right now at wager talk dot com.

949
00:41:52,639 --> 00:41:56,320
Teddy covers free plays daily there as well at wager

950
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:59,599
talk dot com. All right, last, but definitely not least,

951
00:42:00,079 --> 00:42:04,000
the boss Man, Ross the Boss another caper that's been

952
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:05,639
around since the nineties. You know, Ross, I was thinking

953
00:42:05,639 --> 00:42:07,559
about this, this might be a historical show today on

954
00:42:07,599 --> 00:42:08,239
wager Talk.

955
00:42:08,599 --> 00:42:09,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, all four of.

956
00:42:09,519 --> 00:42:12,840
Speaker 2: Us, Steve Merril, Johnny the Great, Teddy Covers, Ross, Benjamin

957
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:15,760
have all been doing this since the least professionally full

958
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,480
time since the nineties, even before that for some of us,

959
00:42:18,559 --> 00:42:22,760
but some expertise to say the least anything catch your

960
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:24,440
ear so far? Would you've been waiting on the sidelines

961
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:24,920
to jump on?

962
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:26,119
Speaker 3: Yeah?

963
00:42:26,199 --> 00:42:29,679
Speaker 6: I love all the stuff you're talking about with NFL preseason.

964
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,880
You know, you hear a lot of people out there

965
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:35,559
saying you can't make any money on the NFL preseason.

966
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:39,400
That's ridiculous, because you can. You just have to have

967
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:42,320
a method to your madness. And Teddy went over a

968
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:45,239
lot of information there that he does. I go about

969
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:49,239
it a different way, but you know, there is I

970
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:52,400
hate to use the phrase there's more than one way

971
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,199
to skin a cap because that offend some people. But

972
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:57,800
you get what I'm trying to say, Steve, we all

973
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:00,760
have our own style. You have yours, and at the

974
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:02,880
end of the day, that's why we're all on wageertalk

975
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:05,159
dot com because all of our styles are effective.

976
00:43:05,199 --> 00:43:07,760
Speaker 2: Over to loonow, Yeah, you know it really hates that saying.

977
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,280
As cats, that's what I found out over the years.

978
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:11,320
Speaker 3: I have two of them.

979
00:43:11,519 --> 00:43:13,880
Speaker 6: My wife would probably kill me if she heard me

980
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:14,280
say that.

981
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 2: One of those ones that have no fur, that look

982
00:43:16,079 --> 00:43:18,679
like they're pink like on the Austin Powers Doctor Evilhead.

983
00:43:18,679 --> 00:43:21,400
One of those like skinless. They're not skinless, they're hairless.

984
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:24,400
I guess they aren't skinless, but they're hairless. We are

985
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:26,079
going to get to some baseball in a moment. Ross,

986
00:43:26,079 --> 00:43:28,280
He's actually got to pick on the Brewers and Mets,

987
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:30,000
one of his New York teams. We're gonna get to

988
00:43:30,039 --> 00:43:32,480
that in a moment. But if you have any baseball questions,

989
00:43:32,519 --> 00:43:34,360
any games you want to cover, and the live chat,

990
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:35,960
we got a few minutes left from the show, drop

991
00:43:36,039 --> 00:43:37,679
them in the chat. We'll get to them as well.

992
00:43:38,039 --> 00:43:40,159
But let's stick with the NFL real quick. Ross, I

993
00:43:40,159 --> 00:43:43,360
want to get your your thoughts on backing sizeable dogs

994
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:45,159
in the NFL. Preseason. You know, we talked about that

995
00:43:45,199 --> 00:43:48,280
Denver game. It's up to seven now from like basically

996
00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:50,280
as minus one plus seven. We saw that with the

997
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:52,480
Ravens the other night, right minus one to plus six.

998
00:43:52,599 --> 00:43:56,840
They went out, Right, At what point you're obviously bucking

999
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:59,440
the information because it's it's never there's always a reason

1000
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,480
I team sizeable dog in the preseason. But are there

1001
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:04,920
a little under the radar things you look forward sometimes

1002
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:06,639
maybe you start to back those dogs or how do

1003
00:44:06,679 --> 00:44:07,280
you approach it?

1004
00:44:08,119 --> 00:44:10,559
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean I'm a thorough believer and I have

1005
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:15,480
been over the years that no team really deserves to

1006
00:44:15,599 --> 00:44:19,639
be a favorite of more than a touchdown in the preseason,

1007
00:44:20,039 --> 00:44:22,960
and the numbers will back that. Steve you know, I

1008
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:26,039
know we can go over reports like Teddy just did,

1009
00:44:26,079 --> 00:44:28,800
and all of that is viable stuff. I mean, there's

1010
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:31,559
a reason why he's as good as he is. It's

1011
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,320
because that stuff is worked for him over the years.

1012
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:38,039
But when you look at the fact that just some

1013
00:44:38,199 --> 00:44:41,599
blind numbers, I mean home underdogs of six and a

1014
00:44:41,679 --> 00:44:46,760
half or greater during the preseason fifteen and five against

1015
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:51,280
the spread since two thousand and five, not only fifteen

1016
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:54,599
and five against the spread, but those home underdogs of

1017
00:44:54,679 --> 00:44:57,320
six and a half are greater have won eight of

1018
00:44:57,360 --> 00:45:00,519
those twenty games straight up, with another one ending in

1019
00:45:00,559 --> 00:45:04,559
a tie. I mean, but if you compare that to

1020
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:08,480
the regular season, I mean, over that same course of

1021
00:45:08,599 --> 00:45:11,760
time during the regular season and playoffs, I should mention

1022
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:15,119
home underdogs of six and a half or greater are

1023
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:21,480
exactly fifty percent against the spread and twenty point six

1024
00:45:21,559 --> 00:45:24,480
percent straight up winners. So you could see there's a

1025
00:45:24,639 --> 00:45:30,559
drastic difference there between handicapping the preseason when when we

1026
00:45:30,599 --> 00:45:34,719
get sizeable home underdogs such as what we're discussing, and

1027
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:37,480
during the regular season. So I mean, I have a

1028
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:40,159
little more. But if you want to comment on that, Steve,

1029
00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:42,000
I'll take a deep breath here.

1030
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:42,679
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1031
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 2: Essentially, what you said too is that so many and

1032
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:46,519
I see it all the time too. So many people

1033
00:45:46,519 --> 00:45:48,800
are like, you're degenerati if you're betting the NFL preseas

1034
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:50,960
you can't make money bet in the NFL preseason. First

1035
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:53,320
of all, whenever someone tells me I can't do something,

1036
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:55,559
it's just my nature to like want to do it.

1037
00:45:55,599 --> 00:45:57,960
And second of all, when it involves something involving money,

1038
00:45:58,039 --> 00:46:00,880
they're usually wrong. And if you think about what everyone

1039
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:02,880
thinks you can beat. It's the NFL regular season, which

1040
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:05,000
is probably the sharpest betty market of all and the

1041
00:46:05,039 --> 00:46:07,320
toughest to beat of any sport, any betty market. So

1042
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:10,000
it's kind of backwards and you can play it. Look,

1043
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:11,880
everything in life has odds. I'm going to walk down

1044
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:14,960
the street later. Hopefully there's not thunderstorm, but there's odds

1045
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:17,280
still that might get struck by lightning. Right, it's risk reward,

1046
00:46:17,679 --> 00:46:19,800
I'll take the chance. So yeah, you can put odds

1047
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:21,440
on anything, So it'd always cut cracks me up. But

1048
00:46:21,519 --> 00:46:24,039
you say you can't bet the preseason because theoretically, if

1049
00:46:24,039 --> 00:46:26,760
it's so random, every game should be a pick them,

1050
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:29,400
which means taking plus six or plus seven, and every

1051
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:30,880
time you can do it makes money. And that's kind

1052
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:33,039
of what you're saying's worked over the last several decades.

1053
00:46:33,079 --> 00:46:35,239
So those of you out there that think you can't

1054
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:37,719
bet the preseasons, just bet the big dogs in that

1055
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:40,159
backs your theory, and Ross has the numbers saying that works.

1056
00:46:40,159 --> 00:46:42,239
And in Teddy's defenses, you know, he said he wouldn't

1057
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:44,480
have touched that game, right, And the only way to

1058
00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:46,760
play it's the information. But I do think the market's

1059
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:50,000
also now granted the opening line in the preseason, like

1060
00:46:50,039 --> 00:46:52,239
Johnny said, is different than the regular season because they're

1061
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:53,920
putting it out on the blind and the news comes

1062
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,239
in on who's playing and who's not, and the sports

1063
00:46:56,639 --> 00:46:58,239
be like, well, we never would have put that number out,

1064
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:00,840
So it's not like it's really moving seven points from

1065
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:03,239
what the number was. But in general, on the regular season,

1066
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:06,119
two sports books aren't off by that much, and now

1067
00:47:06,159 --> 00:47:07,639
more than ever, you can make a case that the

1068
00:47:07,679 --> 00:47:09,960
opening number is sharper than it's ever been. So I

1069
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:13,599
think there is a viable betting strategy going forward in

1070
00:47:13,639 --> 00:47:15,880
any sport, any time of year to take adjusted line

1071
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:17,800
value of five to six seven points when you can

1072
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:19,559
get it. And we see that ross in the NBA

1073
00:47:19,679 --> 00:47:22,280
with the injuries, team will move seven points and they

1074
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:24,239
went out right still right if you just blindly bet

1075
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:25,559
the other way on those injuries.

1076
00:47:26,599 --> 00:47:28,280
Speaker 7: Anything else you want to add on football, well, yeah,

1077
00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:30,280
I mean the first thing, the first thing that I

1078
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:32,280
would look at when I see a line move, as

1079
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:37,000
you just alluded to, is somebody's out, somebody's not playing,

1080
00:47:37,079 --> 00:47:39,400
somebody decided they're going to use their starters, and the.

1081
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:42,559
Speaker 6: Other team isn't you know what I mean? But at

1082
00:47:42,559 --> 00:47:45,280
the same time, I mean, if we know that, the

1083
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:49,239
books know that, and more so than ever in the

1084
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:52,440
NFL preseason. And this is what you were saying in

1085
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:55,639
a nutshell, Steve is is line movements in the NFL

1086
00:47:55,719 --> 00:48:02,559
preseason are mostly not money, generally a result of information

1087
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:06,639
as opposed to the regular season. You know, again, a

1088
00:48:06,679 --> 00:48:11,679
little one more thing is just betting underdogs of seven

1089
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:16,239
or greater in the NFL preseason eighty one and fifty

1090
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:19,360
one against the spread, sixty one point three percent on

1091
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:23,440
the blind. That's what out any other condition involved in

1092
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:28,800
there since since two thousand and five, sous, if you

1093
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:33,440
look at the difference in the regular season once again, uh,

1094
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:38,119
dogs of seven or greater since over the same time period,

1095
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:41,400
they're only fifty two point eight percent against the spread

1096
00:48:41,679 --> 00:48:44,360
in favor of the dogs seven or greater. So there's

1097
00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:49,599
a drastic difference when you're handicapping NFL preseason first regular season,

1098
00:48:49,639 --> 00:48:52,440
not only through the numbers, but various other topics too.

1099
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:54,960
Speaker 5: Steve, I don't know about you, but I like looking at.

1100
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:59,199
Speaker 6: Head coaching trends during the preseason. I think those hold water.

1101
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:02,000
You mentioned how Bah he slowed down a little bit,

1102
00:49:02,039 --> 00:49:05,840
but again he came through as a six point dog.

1103
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:10,480
The other night you mentioned McDermott. You look at the

1104
00:49:10,519 --> 00:49:15,320
opposite end of the spectrum, dan Quinn's preseason record. It's

1105
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:18,639
a head coach in Atlanta and Washington has been horrible.

1106
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:22,559
So there's a lot more importance for some head coaches

1107
00:49:22,599 --> 00:49:26,000
than there are others, and you can't ignore that factor

1108
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:28,599
when you're breaking down games.

1109
00:49:29,480 --> 00:49:33,039
Speaker 2: Absolutely correct, and I think quarterback rotations are important, just

1110
00:49:33,079 --> 00:49:36,360
like starting pitchers are important in baseball. But I think

1111
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:39,119
it's some must overrated now in the lines in both sports.

1112
00:49:39,159 --> 00:49:41,079
And you can make an argument of it's very similar

1113
00:49:41,079 --> 00:49:43,239
because in baseball you're getting maybe five or six innings

1114
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:45,639
out of that handicap because the starters are pulled, and

1115
00:49:45,679 --> 00:49:48,400
then it's randomness with a bullpen. As I pointed out earlier,

1116
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:50,599
most of these first half lines with the big favorites

1117
00:49:50,639 --> 00:49:52,760
are the same as the full game because it's all

1118
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:55,880
based on that known quantity of the first second quarter rotations,

1119
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:58,079
and they're all saying the second half as a pick them.

1120
00:49:58,519 --> 00:50:00,480
So there again your only handicap in half the game

1121
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:04,559
with this information, whereas the coach's motivation is constant throughout

1122
00:50:04,559 --> 00:50:07,159
the game second half when all backups are out there,

1123
00:50:07,159 --> 00:50:09,280
which is very important, especially for a home team, and

1124
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:11,480
Bill's and Buffalo have been the two best. They both

1125
00:50:11,480 --> 00:50:13,119
at their home this week. We'll see how this Buffalo

1126
00:50:13,119 --> 00:50:15,840
game turns out today. But that's where the motivation comes in.

1127
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:17,159
Is when it's a tight game in the third or

1128
00:50:17,199 --> 00:50:19,000
fourth quarter, does one team actually kind of want to

1129
00:50:19,039 --> 00:50:22,199
win more than the other. So I think once again,

1130
00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:24,800
the sample sets are given is much more important than

1131
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:27,079
one day of maybe quarterback information that we're trying to

1132
00:50:27,079 --> 00:50:29,440
figure out how that's going to play out. A couple

1133
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:31,159
of minutes left, Ross got a lot of baseball want

1134
00:50:31,159 --> 00:50:32,840
to touch. I know you're can look at that Brewers

1135
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:35,039
Mets games, but a lot of people in the chats

1136
00:50:35,039 --> 00:50:36,480
are asking about some I'll throw them out to you

1137
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:38,239
see if they have any thoughts of these. In particular,

1138
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:43,199
Crypto's asking about Baltimore in the Athletics. Nobody's Oakland Athletics

1139
00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:47,559
against my Baltimorial has just played my Washington Nationals. Also

1140
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:51,960
Red's Pirates, thoughts on Red Sox if any of those

1141
00:50:52,039 --> 00:50:52,679
jump out to you.

1142
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:53,400
Speaker 3: In protect I.

1143
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:56,679
Speaker 6: Mean the A's game jumps out at me because you

1144
00:50:56,800 --> 00:51:02,159
got young going for Baltimore and he's been prone to

1145
00:51:02,159 --> 00:51:04,719
giving up the long ball. And if you look at

1146
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:07,000
the A's, they're one of the best power hitting teams

1147
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:09,079
in baseball. I don't think a lot of people realize

1148
00:51:09,119 --> 00:51:12,239
that they're even better on the road, where they average

1149
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:14,880
one point five home runs per game on the road,

1150
00:51:14,960 --> 00:51:17,719
ninety one home runs and sixty one on the road.

1151
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:22,719
So Mike Lean there would go toward the A's you

1152
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:26,599
get them between minus one hundred and minus one oh five.

1153
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:30,039
The other two games you mentioned were the Red Socks

1154
00:51:31,519 --> 00:51:33,519
and the since Cincinnati.

1155
00:51:33,639 --> 00:51:35,639
Speaker 2: Thoughts of the Red Sox Titan CT one of our

1156
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:38,840
loyal viewers. And then also v Smoke he's asking reds Pirates.

1157
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:41,760
And I'll give a shout out to one of my coaches,

1158
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:44,840
my partners in crime. Basketball football coach Daniel Owen's big

1159
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:48,679
Nationals fan left Williamsburg at seven am Thursday morning to

1160
00:51:48,719 --> 00:51:50,320
go up to that New Eastern game to watch the

1161
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:53,599
Nets get shut out six nothing by the A's. It's

1162
00:51:53,639 --> 00:51:56,719
funny talk about the power numbers for Oakland because they're

1163
00:51:56,719 --> 00:51:59,239
in a hitter friendly park in Sacramentos. That is very

1164
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:02,119
interesting to me, they have better power road numbers. I

1165
00:52:02,159 --> 00:52:04,599
will say this though, when you're a homeless transient team

1166
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:07,079
like that, you have no home field advantage and you

1167
00:52:07,079 --> 00:52:08,400
probably do play better on the road.

1168
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:10,519
Speaker 3: Right. Hobos love to travel the OK.

1169
00:52:11,559 --> 00:52:15,880
Speaker 6: I know, I don't know if I'm a hobo, but

1170
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:16,800
I like to travel.

1171
00:52:17,199 --> 00:52:17,320
Speaker 1: Uh.

1172
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:18,920
Speaker 3: I never called you a hope. I look at that

1173
00:52:18,960 --> 00:52:23,159
putting words in my mouth. My goodness, not everything, not.

1174
00:52:23,079 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 6: Anything, Benjamin, No, man, you're you're the best bro.

1175
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:30,519
Speaker 3: You back me. But I like to travel. I might

1176
00:52:30,599 --> 00:52:33,599
use that a lot at any event.

1177
00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:36,679
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's sort of shocking because it's a Triple A

1178
00:52:36,800 --> 00:52:40,880
ballpark they play in in Santramento. Yeah, and the visiting

1179
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:43,280
teams have definitely had a lot more success in power

1180
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:45,679
numbers against them in that ballpark.

1181
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:46,159
Speaker 3: Uh.

1182
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:50,280
Speaker 6: Terms of the Reds in Pirates game, I really don't

1183
00:52:50,320 --> 00:52:54,239
have a strong opinion Steve because number one Ashcraft is

1184
00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:58,960
a I believe he's a former Red if I'm not mistaken.

1185
00:52:59,039 --> 00:53:01,960
If not, he's a Leaf pitchers. So it's not like

1186
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:03,960
they're going to ask him to go more than two

1187
00:53:04,079 --> 00:53:06,960
or three innings there. And it's hard for me to

1188
00:53:07,239 --> 00:53:10,559
fade Pittsburgh get home, right, now you know they won

1189
00:53:10,639 --> 00:53:13,719
the first two games of this series. Nick Martinez on

1190
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:18,519
the mound for Cincinnati's uninspiring numbers to me, so that's

1191
00:53:18,519 --> 00:53:21,159
a stay away game for me, and the Red Sox

1192
00:53:21,639 --> 00:53:25,039
helped me out. Steve looking, here we go, Giolito against King.

1193
00:53:25,079 --> 00:53:27,719
I mean King has been out for the majority of

1194
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:31,079
the year, hasn't he, Michael King? If I'm not mistaken.

1195
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:35,280
And when I see a pitcher going in a spot

1196
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:38,159
like that, and Giolito has been a radic this year,

1197
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:43,039
you know that's another game. There's better games on the

1198
00:53:43,079 --> 00:53:47,440
board to me than choosing one of those two latter

1199
00:53:47,519 --> 00:53:49,960
two that I would out of the three, I would

1200
00:53:50,159 --> 00:53:54,639
have the strongest lean toward the A's today.

1201
00:53:55,159 --> 00:53:56,760
Speaker 2: And I know you're gonna give us a free player

1202
00:53:56,760 --> 00:53:58,840
in this Brewers Mets game in about one minute, but

1203
00:53:59,119 --> 00:54:01,880
one last one. Andrew next, another loyal viewer here is

1204
00:54:01,920 --> 00:54:04,800
asking about Tiger's angels. If nothing jumps out to say so,

1205
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:06,440
but I didn't know if you saw anything in that game.

1206
00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:10,119
Speaker 6: Yeah, Tiger's ing, you know, Charlie Morton all of a sudden,

1207
00:54:10,159 --> 00:54:13,239
he's starting to pitch like a he was when he

1208
00:54:13,320 --> 00:54:17,920
was younger. But I don't trust him Kokuchi. I don't

1209
00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:22,039
trust him either, especially on the road. The Angels bullpen

1210
00:54:22,159 --> 00:54:24,960
has pitched a lot better. They definitely have when when

1211
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:29,000
you're looking at recent bullpen performance, the Angels have been

1212
00:54:29,079 --> 00:54:33,239
much better over the last week than Detroit has been. Detroit,

1213
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:37,320
you know, came off that that that little span where

1214
00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:40,719
they couldn't win. Now they seem like they're getting back

1215
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:44,039
to their normal self. Barely squeaked by six to five

1216
00:54:44,079 --> 00:54:47,519
with Scooba on the mount and uh, you know, it's

1217
00:54:47,559 --> 00:54:50,920
almost like you're looking at the disparitian records here in

1218
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:54,039
Detroit to only minus one thirty. I would have a

1219
00:54:54,079 --> 00:54:57,519
small lean toward the Angels, just because this looks too

1220
00:54:57,519 --> 00:55:00,000
good to be true. Uh you know what, the Tigers

1221
00:55:00,119 --> 00:55:05,079
at home facing an Angels team that's right around a

1222
00:55:05,079 --> 00:55:05,960
five hundred club.

1223
00:55:06,519 --> 00:55:08,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the sharp money agrees with you Ross, so

1224
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:10,679
they opened his eyes minus one fifty the Tigers down

1225
00:55:10,679 --> 00:55:12,719
to that minus one thirty range now, So it does

1226
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:15,400
look like some early sharp money was on the Angels

1227
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:15,880
in that game.

1228
00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:17,159
Speaker 3: That's at six' ten eastern.

1229
00:55:17,159 --> 00:55:21,519
Speaker 2: Tonight and before we let you go give it, Something Mets,

1230
00:55:21,559 --> 00:55:25,440
Brewers i'm checking it. Now i'm seeing. Undecided myers has

1231
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:29,119
been switched From. Milwaukee this is only a single game right,

1232
00:55:29,119 --> 00:55:30,559
now a double. Header this is kind of moves you

1233
00:55:30,559 --> 00:55:32,559
see sometimes with a double header a lot of times in.

1234
00:55:32,599 --> 00:55:34,360
Baseball SO i don't know if you still like this

1235
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:36,440
game or. Not if these are the handicapped pictures you.

1236
00:55:36,519 --> 00:55:37,760
Had what are you looking at in this?

1237
00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:40,280
Speaker 6: One, YEAH i mean you're Seeing Tobias myers got.

1238
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:43,079
Speaker 2: Scratched, No i'm Seeing myers has been the pitching change

1239
00:55:43,119 --> 00:55:46,039
For milwaukee that was overnight right seeing The mets is.

1240
00:55:46,119 --> 00:55:48,599
Undecided i'm not sure if you're seeing something different in This, No.

1241
00:55:48,559 --> 00:55:49,679
Speaker 3: I'm not seeing.

1242
00:55:49,679 --> 00:55:54,079
Speaker 6: IT i misunderstood what you, Said. Steve my, Apology, no, no,

1243
00:55:54,079 --> 00:55:54,320
no no.

1244
00:55:54,320 --> 00:55:56,239
Speaker 2: WORRIES i was kind of scrambling here, too because this

1245
00:55:56,280 --> 00:55:58,239
is the. Game that's the screen's lighting up right. Now

1246
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:00,400
we're actually seeing some money coming on the open by the,

1247
00:56:00,440 --> 00:56:01,920
way open nine.

1248
00:56:02,039 --> 00:56:03,119
Speaker 3: Under it's now nine.

1249
00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:05,440
Speaker 2: Over i'm looking at The odds Logic live odd, screen

1250
00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:07,280
BUT i know you're looking at the side, Here SO i.

1251
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:09,000
Speaker 3: Didn't know if something was, changing maybe with the.

1252
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:12,360
Speaker 6: Pitchers, YEAH i mean the pitching is the starting pitching.

1253
00:56:12,639 --> 00:56:14,840
Is you don't know who's going with for The mets

1254
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:19,199
And Tobias myers has been a relief pitcher for the

1255
00:56:19,199 --> 00:56:22,079
most part this. Season he has made three, starts but

1256
00:56:22,159 --> 00:56:24,880
he's only gone four innings in those three. Starts so

1257
00:56:25,280 --> 00:56:28,559
this is a. Game both pitching staffs are going to

1258
00:56:28,639 --> 00:56:32,239
patch together to get through this. Game and with that being,

1259
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:35,480
said both bullpens have been very. Good So i'm not

1260
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:40,440
really sure why the money is coming in on the.

1261
00:56:40,559 --> 00:56:44,440
OVER i will say, this sometimes you just need to

1262
00:56:44,519 --> 00:56:47,840
keep it. Simple and you, know this seems like a lazy,

1263
00:56:47,840 --> 00:56:50,679
handicap which you GET i get accused of on, occasion

1264
00:56:51,119 --> 00:56:54,519
but you, know sometimes the public. Wins there's eighty percent

1265
00:56:54,559 --> 00:56:57,599
of the money On milwaukee. Here and, look these are

1266
00:56:57,599 --> 00:57:00,000
two teams THAT i had in opposite directions right. Now

1267
00:57:00,239 --> 00:57:02,280
The mets have lost five in a. Row they've lost

1268
00:57:02,360 --> 00:57:05,440
nine in their last. Ten they're home and away Splits

1269
00:57:05,480 --> 00:57:08,519
Ore jekyl And hide thirty eight and twenty one at,

1270
00:57:08,559 --> 00:57:11,440
home twenty five and thirty two on the. Road and

1271
00:57:11,559 --> 00:57:14,079
also they're one and nine in their last. Ten is

1272
00:57:14,079 --> 00:57:17,719
an away dog of plus one hundred or. Greater The

1273
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,519
mets offense over their last six. Games they're hitting just

1274
00:57:20,559 --> 00:57:23,360
two to eleven as a team less than three hundred

1275
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:26,559
for a team on base. Percentage this is A brewers

1276
00:57:26,599 --> 00:57:30,119
team thirty two and nine or last forty one and

1277
00:57:30,239 --> 00:57:32,719
also seven and oh their last seven and ten and

1278
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:35,960
one their last. Eleven talk about a team playing really

1279
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:39,679
good baseball right, now and since the bullpens are going

1280
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:43,119
to play a major role in deciding to winner, today

1281
00:57:43,880 --> 00:57:46,559
The milwaukee's bullpen has been good for quite a while right,

1282
00:57:46,599 --> 00:57:49,079
now and over their last six games of one ninety three,

1283
00:57:49,159 --> 00:57:53,199
ERA i think the bullpens are pretty much even if

1284
00:57:53,199 --> 00:57:55,880
you look at The mets bullpen performance lines over their

1285
00:57:55,960 --> 00:57:59,000
last six. Games BUT i just think the d tangibles

1286
00:57:59,000 --> 00:58:02,920
here favor To brewers too. Much And i'm seeing The

1287
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:06,880
brewers at minus one twenty nine at bet online the

1288
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:09,599
LAST i. Look let me check that real. Quickly we

1289
00:58:09,599 --> 00:58:12,679
actually you're down to one eighteen at bet. Online So

1290
00:58:13,039 --> 00:58:15,519
i'm gonna have a small lean here as a free

1291
00:58:15,559 --> 00:58:19,360
play and The brewers minus one. Eighteen don't go overboard

1292
00:58:19,400 --> 00:58:22,480
on this, one, folks BECAUSE i don't like to bet

1293
00:58:22,480 --> 00:58:26,320
big money on games where there's not a definitive starting

1294
00:58:26,360 --> 00:58:27,119
pitcher on either.

1295
00:58:27,159 --> 00:58:30,440
Speaker 2: SIDE i can't believe you said a lazy handicap. It

1296
00:58:30,480 --> 00:58:32,719
there's one Thing ross The Boss benjamin does not do

1297
00:58:33,079 --> 00:58:35,599
is lazy. Handicaps he does free via is the least

1298
00:58:35,679 --> 00:58:37,960
laziest man on Wager TALK. Tv he does free play

1299
00:58:38,039 --> 00:58:41,039
videos every, day as almost every you watching probably know

1300
00:58:41,119 --> 00:58:43,920
because he had an incredible and still has an INCREDIBLE

1301
00:58:44,039 --> 00:58:47,719
mlb free pick video run going this. Summer but when

1302
00:58:47,719 --> 00:58:49,960
that jumps out to, me those your best bets twenty

1303
00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:53,679
two and, Four actually that's money twenty third ON mlb

1304
00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:58,119
money line wagers twenty two and four last month. Plus

1305
00:58:58,280 --> 00:59:00,639
and it's not just it's not just. Ball one hundred

1306
00:59:00,639 --> 00:59:02,400
and twenty five and eighty three in college football the

1307
00:59:02,440 --> 00:59:06,639
last two, years overall all sports the past three, months

1308
00:59:06,679 --> 00:59:09,119
almost ninety two and fifty five since Mid, may ninety

1309
00:59:09,119 --> 00:59:12,199
two and fifty five all, sports seventy six and forty

1310
00:59:12,199 --> 00:59:14,639
Six baseball over the last three months since Early. May

1311
00:59:15,440 --> 00:59:17,079
ross a great time of year to be on The All,

1312
00:59:17,079 --> 00:59:19,400
Sports All access and they got some special offers in your.

1313
00:59:19,440 --> 00:59:22,639
Page college football still just five ninety nine for the full.

1314
00:59:22,679 --> 00:59:25,000
Season he's number one in baseball this. Year he's number

1315
00:59:25,000 --> 00:59:27,679
one in units earned college football the last two seasons.

1316
00:59:27,719 --> 00:59:31,239
Combined tell people how they get this wager talk dot.

1317
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:33,719
Com Ross, Benjamin, yeah wagertalk dot.

1318
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:36,199
Speaker 6: Com you can go right to my personal link wt

1319
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:39,400
dot buzz SLASH. Rb thank you for all those, Promos,

1320
00:59:39,400 --> 00:59:42,519
steve by the, way appreciate. That and number one in

1321
00:59:42,559 --> 00:59:46,400
college football and both units earned and win percentage last

1322
00:59:46,519 --> 00:59:49,920
year and Like steve touched upon over the last two

1323
00:59:50,039 --> 00:59:54,559
college football, seasons number one in combined units earned over

1324
00:59:54,599 --> 00:59:57,760
the last two seasons in college football five to ninety

1325
00:59:57,880 --> 01:00:01,639
nine for my entire college football season right through The

1326
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:04,760
National championship. Game you can get that right now at my.

1327
01:00:04,920 --> 01:00:08,039
Site to ninety nine for a thirty day. Pass in all.

1328
01:00:08,159 --> 01:00:11,880
Sports Major League, baseball, folks has just been on. Fire

1329
01:00:11,960 --> 01:00:16,880
for myself is seventy three units earned for a season so,

1330
01:00:17,039 --> 01:00:21,119
far and that doesn't include Since may, thirteenth Where i've

1331
01:00:21,360 --> 01:00:24,599
won well over eighty. Units so a lot of good

1332
01:00:24,679 --> 01:00:27,880
stuff to take advantage of right. NOW nfl college football

1333
01:00:28,519 --> 01:00:32,719
combined eight hundred and forty nine, dollars which will take

1334
01:00:32,760 --> 01:00:36,360
you through The Super Bowl National Championship. Game and it's

1335
01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:39,679
all about making, money, folks you, know it's about beating

1336
01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:43,280
the number and over the long haul is the best

1337
01:00:43,320 --> 01:00:45,880
way to do. That and the best way to invest

1338
01:00:46,039 --> 01:00:48,400
in that case is how about a three hundred and

1339
01:00:48,440 --> 01:00:52,400
sixty five day all access pass for nineteen ninety. Nine,

1340
01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:55,880
again it seems like a steep, price but when you

1341
01:00:55,960 --> 01:00:58,679
hear the numbers That steve just rattled out for, myself

1342
01:00:59,039 --> 01:01:00,519
you can see you can make a lot of money

1343
01:01:00,559 --> 01:01:02,920
over to long haul and save yourself a lot of money.

1344
01:01:02,960 --> 01:01:06,719
Speaker 2: Investment, yeah single play is twenty five dollars per. Day

1345
01:01:06,880 --> 01:01:09,440
multiple plays fifty dollars for maybe one. Day you get

1346
01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:11,800
that one year all access even at nineteen ninety, nine

1347
01:01:11,800 --> 01:01:14,360
you're talking about just a few dollars a play for every,

1348
01:01:14,400 --> 01:01:16,519
sport every day for three hundred and sixty five days and.

1349
01:01:16,559 --> 01:01:17,599
Speaker 3: Nights and that's how you take.

1350
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:21,320
Speaker 2: A true investment approach with any capper at wager talk

1351
01:01:21,360 --> 01:01:24,280
Dot comedy might want to consider multiple cappers with those

1352
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:27,079
one of your. Packages and by the, way contact Wager

1353
01:01:27,199 --> 01:01:30,559
Talks award winning customer support if you'd like multiple. Cappers

1354
01:01:31,079 --> 01:01:33,400
tell them you What Ross benjamin And Steve. Merrill they'll

1355
01:01:33,440 --> 01:01:36,360
put a combo offer together for. You i'll work With. Ross,

1356
01:01:36,960 --> 01:01:37,679
Yeah i'll work.

1357
01:01:37,519 --> 01:01:39,079
Speaker 3: At any time for. People it will be an.

1358
01:01:39,119 --> 01:01:41,880
Speaker 6: Honor, yeah IF i can just mention one more.

1359
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:43,760
Speaker 3: Thing, yeah, man, again you mentioned it.

1360
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:47,480
Speaker 6: Earlier me And teddy will be doing a college football

1361
01:01:47,519 --> 01:01:51,159
betting preview show live from The Westgates Sports book On.

1362
01:01:51,199 --> 01:01:54,840
Wednesday that will air live at eleven Am eastern time

1363
01:01:55,159 --> 01:01:58,559
Or pacific, time which is two Pm eastern AND i

1364
01:01:58,559 --> 01:02:02,079
get screwed up with the time zone AND i look

1365
01:02:02,159 --> 01:02:05,599
forward to doing that With teddy and folks tune.

1366
01:02:05,639 --> 01:02:06,760
Speaker 3: IN i, mean you hear my.

1367
01:02:06,719 --> 01:02:10,519
Speaker 6: College football record and got a huge futures played. IT

1368
01:02:10,599 --> 01:02:13,639
i discussed With steve and if you didn't hear, that

1369
01:02:14,800 --> 01:02:15,760
you'll hear it again On.

1370
01:02:15,800 --> 01:02:18,320
Speaker 3: WEDNESDAY i did realize you had a time set for.

1371
01:02:18,320 --> 01:02:20,079
Speaker 2: THAT i was going to promo that then. Again, okay

1372
01:02:20,159 --> 01:02:24,199
so that's This. Wednesday that would Be august thirteenth at

1373
01:02:24,199 --> 01:02:26,920
eleven Am vegas time at The, Westgates so people can

1374
01:02:26,960 --> 01:02:29,559
come out and hang out at the Super, book maybe

1375
01:02:29,559 --> 01:02:31,519
say hi To ross And teddy before after as.

1376
01:02:31,519 --> 01:02:31,719
Speaker 3: Well.

1377
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:35,280
Speaker 6: Correct that is, correct and that also be on archive as.

1378
01:02:35,280 --> 01:02:39,239
Well so if you can't make it and you're, working it's.

1379
01:02:39,360 --> 01:02:43,039
Understandable you can get it on archive at Wager TALK.

1380
01:02:43,119 --> 01:02:47,199
Tv you can get all my videos actually at my personal.

1381
01:02:47,280 --> 01:02:52,880
Link And steve loves, this which is Buzz Slash ROSS Tv.

1382
01:02:53,199 --> 01:02:54,000
Speaker 3: ROSS tv.

1383
01:02:57,239 --> 01:02:59,280
Speaker 2: The other week two weeks, ago AND i guessed. US i,

1384
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:01,960
SAID i want, One Johnny goes contact. ME i JUST

1385
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:03,679
i forgot to do. IT i want to.

1386
01:03:03,719 --> 01:03:06,199
Speaker 3: LINK i want to all so, Long i've been THINKING

1387
01:03:06,199 --> 01:03:08,280
i want a nickname in. Quotes that's WHAT i. Want

1388
01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:10,880
look at, men DO.

1389
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:12,920
Speaker 2: I dare ask the commenters to give me a nickname

1390
01:03:12,920 --> 01:03:14,719
suggestion during the football videos?

1391
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:17,000
Speaker 3: Here or is? That is that going to be playing with? Fire?

1392
01:03:17,400 --> 01:03:20,800
Yeah that might be pretty. Fun, actually, yeah, Nickname. Steve

1393
01:03:20,880 --> 01:03:21,840
let's have a contest this.

1394
01:03:21,880 --> 01:03:25,400
Speaker 6: Fing you, know they started calling He ross the boss

1395
01:03:25,440 --> 01:03:27,599
all the time in the, time you know WHAT i.

1396
01:03:27,599 --> 01:03:29,480
Speaker 2: Mean but that's WHAT i love is he didn't give

1397
01:03:29,559 --> 01:03:32,280
himself that. Nickname it was given to him by the loyal.

1398
01:03:32,360 --> 01:03:35,840
Viewers when somebody nicknames you the, boss not, yourself that's a.

1399
01:03:35,880 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 6: Sign, well you know, What Bruce springsteen has nothing on, me,

1400
01:03:40,480 --> 01:03:41,400
Folk so that's.

1401
01:03:41,239 --> 01:03:43,239
Speaker 2: TRY i forgot there was another. BOSS i like you

1402
01:03:43,239 --> 01:03:45,719
better Than Bruce. Springsteen you're a Great he thinks he

1403
01:03:46,400 --> 01:03:48,679
does songs About, American but you're a Great, american even

1404
01:03:48,719 --> 01:03:50,679
though you're close to That canadian border, said.

1405
01:03:50,559 --> 01:03:51,400
Speaker 3: YEAH i love the.

1406
01:03:51,599 --> 01:03:54,440
Speaker 6: Quote that you on my, birthday you wish me a happy,

1407
01:03:54,480 --> 01:03:57,599
birthday and you Said america's became a great, place and

1408
01:03:57,800 --> 01:03:58,039
ate one.

1409
01:03:58,159 --> 01:03:59,960
Speaker 3: FIFTY i said it was a great day In american.

1410
01:04:00,119 --> 01:04:01,920
Speaker 2: History AND i won't say how many years ago unless

1411
01:04:01,920 --> 01:04:03,719
you would have publicly, revealed BUT i, said this was

1412
01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:05,760
a great day In american history so many years. Ago

1413
01:04:05,800 --> 01:04:07,559
and it Was ross's birthday a couple of weeks. Ago

1414
01:04:07,920 --> 01:04:10,119
he is a year wiser and you can find him

1415
01:04:10,159 --> 01:04:13,840
every day free, videos no, joke basically every single, day

1416
01:04:13,840 --> 01:04:15,639
And i'm doing them almost every day now with baseball

1417
01:04:15,679 --> 01:04:17,239
and then of course. Football you AND i will be

1418
01:04:17,239 --> 01:04:19,880
in full throttle here on Wager TALK. Tv That's ross The, Boss.

1419
01:04:19,880 --> 01:04:23,199
Benjamin we Had Teddy, Covers johnny The, greek and of

1420
01:04:23,239 --> 01:04:25,519
COURSE i Am Steve. Merril hope you enjoyed this episode

1421
01:04:25,559 --> 01:04:27,880
over an hour. Long we maybe broke a record, here

1422
01:04:27,880 --> 01:04:29,599
BUT i thought it was a pretty good Info and

1423
01:04:29,639 --> 01:04:32,199
if you want, More Tokyo brandon is on LIVE i

1424
01:04:32,199 --> 01:04:35,519
think right now with his baseball show With saturdays at,

1425
01:04:35,599 --> 01:04:38,320
noon which is who knows what time over In, tokyo

1426
01:04:38,360 --> 01:04:40,800
it's in the wee, hours and he tries to stay

1427
01:04:40,840 --> 01:04:42,880
awake and. Sober that's a great watch as. Well you

1428
01:04:42,920 --> 01:04:44,760
can go over every baseball game on the board with

1429
01:04:44,800 --> 01:04:48,599
a FORMER mlb Scout Tokyo brandon and thank you all

1430
01:04:48,639 --> 01:04:51,960
for watching thumbs up like positive comments. Below we will

1431
01:04:52,000 --> 01:04:54,519
keep these free play videos and shows coming on a daily.

1432
01:04:54,559 --> 01:04:57,360
Basis make sure you subscribe to Wager TALK tv and

1433
01:04:57,440 --> 01:04:59,280
click the bell as well for an instant. Alerts you

1434
01:04:59,320 --> 01:05:00,960
know when these shows go. Live when my free play

1435
01:05:01,000 --> 01:05:03,599
videos go off each and every day rosses Everybody Else's

1436
01:05:03,639 --> 01:05:06,239
Tokyo's Baseball. Show and by the, WAY i post a

1437
01:05:06,280 --> 01:05:08,800
free bonus play every day on my page along With

1438
01:05:08,800 --> 01:05:10,960
tonight's baseball best bet go get a free play right

1439
01:05:11,000 --> 01:05:14,559
Now steve merrillwager talk dot com and get there, quicker

1440
01:05:15,000 --> 01:05:17,280
wt dot buzz slash. Sm you can follow me on

1441
01:05:17,320 --> 01:05:18,920
social media see on the bottom of the. Screen they're

1442
01:05:18,960 --> 01:05:21,400
At Steve merrill TWO rs one l At Steve merrill

1443
01:05:21,400 --> 01:05:24,639
on x And. Instagram thanks To Dan. Alexander and by the,

1444
01:05:24,679 --> 01:05:26,480
way stay. Tuned i'm about to do two free play

1445
01:05:26,559 --> 01:05:31,199
videos for tonight's Baseball, Phillies, Rangers Blue, Jays dodgers free

1446
01:05:31,199 --> 01:05:33,639
plays with analysis coming up here on Wager TALK tv For.

1447
01:05:33,760 --> 01:05:36,880
Saturday click the, bell, subscribe and stay. Tuned there's more

1448
01:05:36,920 --> 01:05:38,199
free content coming up next