WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Or fifty five KR CD talk station fifty five krsee

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<v Speaker 1>dot com for podcasts when you can't listen live hour

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<v Speaker 1>and a half with Congressman Brad Winsterrip now retired, on

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<v Speaker 1>the whole COVID investigation. Scary scary stuff. Get it at

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<v Speaker 1>fifty five cars dot com. It's well worth to listen

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<v Speaker 1>if you didn't listen live, and of course my conversation

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<v Speaker 1>right now. First of the year, in a very happy

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<v Speaker 1>new year, it is time for the Daniel Davis Deep

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<v Speaker 1>Dive with retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis. Great to see

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<v Speaker 1>your face, my friend, and a happy new Year to you.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll mean twenty twenty five to you, bron been missing you, man.

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<v Speaker 1>I know I listen, man, I read the news, and

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<v Speaker 1>every time I see a story, most notably about Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>and Russia, which were going to talk about it again today,

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<v Speaker 1>it's like, God, I wish I had Daniel around it

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<v Speaker 1>just exchange ideas about this, because you know you and

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<v Speaker 1>I have been back and forth on this, and let's

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<v Speaker 1>start with the article you afforded me to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>as a springboard. Ukraine is bringing war back to Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>as Lensky says after New kurse offensive, And there was

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<v Speaker 1>an observation in here because you have pointed out time

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<v Speaker 1>and time again that you know, Ukraine can't beat Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>They don't have the equipment, they don't have the guys,

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<v Speaker 1>they don't have the hardware.

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<v Speaker 2>What in the hell are they doing in Russia? Anyway?

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<v Speaker 1>And I see this line here the Institute for the

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<v Speaker 1>Study of War think tank report of the Ukraine intensified

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<v Speaker 1>its offensive operations in Kursk through Monday. Here's the point,

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<v Speaker 1>with Russian forces elsewhere in the region launching their own

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<v Speaker 1>fresh attacks on the Ukrainian salient, So you're not minding

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<v Speaker 1>your own backyard. You're busy going into Russia for reasons

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<v Speaker 1>unknown to me, while the Russians are making advances in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>Does that make any sense from a strategic standpoint? Daniel Kind, That.

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<v Speaker 3>Didn't make any sense from any viewpoint. And it's actually worse.

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<v Speaker 3>I did an update literally just minutes before joining you

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<v Speaker 3>here right now to get the latest tactical updates all

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<v Speaker 3>in that situation, and it's gotten really ugly, really fast,

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<v Speaker 3>because I knew already what was reported was that roughly

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<v Speaker 3>a company size element and that means maybe twenty five

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<v Speaker 3>total combat vehicles, tanks, on our personnel carriers, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 3>Everybody in the West was calling this a big offensive.

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<v Speaker 3>Zelensky was talking about it like it was an offensive.

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<v Speaker 3>This was a small tactical counter attack. Really, all is

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<v Speaker 3>what you can say that used to be in some

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<v Speaker 3>circles is considered normal in any kind of a fight

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<v Speaker 3>where you have one side on the offense and on

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<v Speaker 3>the defense, but the defensive side will launch local counter

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<v Speaker 3>attacks to try to reposition the defense or to try

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<v Speaker 3>to blunt something that the offensive side is doing, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 2>The Ukraine hasn't.

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<v Speaker 3>Been doing any of those anywhere for most of the

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<v Speaker 3>year of twenty twenty four, and they tried one here

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<v Speaker 3>at the last minute. But here's the problem. It made

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<v Speaker 3>a very small incursion. It was blunted almost immediately overnight.

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<v Speaker 3>Part of that what they had captured has already been lost.

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<v Speaker 3>And then because they had to take forces from one

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<v Speaker 3>part of the Kerk salients to the other part, Russia

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<v Speaker 3>immediately recognized it, launched a fresh attack of their own,

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<v Speaker 3>and last night headache huge swath in the northern part

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<v Speaker 3>of that to further knock them out of the Kursk saleant.

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<v Speaker 3>So the net is a loss in Ukraine, in the Kursk,

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<v Speaker 3>and as you pointed out, it's still continuing to be

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<v Speaker 3>a loss in the.

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<v Speaker 1>Eastern Front and in the meantime in the fog of war.

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<v Speaker 1>I constantly mention that during our discussions, because honestly, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know what to believe anymore. I never have known

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<v Speaker 1>what to believe. You hear a X number of people die,

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<v Speaker 1>this number of people died. This one says thirty eight

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<v Speaker 1>thousand Russian troopsmen killed or wounded fighting in the western

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<v Speaker 1>curs region. Seriously, I don't know that there doesn't since

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<v Speaker 1>a pro Ukraine article I suppose leans that way. Anyway,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know how many of the Ukrainians have died

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<v Speaker 1>in that particular offensive either, But do you think there's

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<v Speaker 1>any legitimacy to that figure.

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<v Speaker 3>It's really impossible to tell, because you have the Russian size,

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<v Speaker 3>by the ways claiming there's somewhere around pardon me, fifty

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<v Speaker 3>to sixty thousand Ukrainians who have been killed since saw

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<v Speaker 3>I guess when they first made this incursion.

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<v Speaker 2>And there's no way to independently verify either one of.

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<v Speaker 3>Them, except that it makes sense to suggest that the

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<v Speaker 3>side that is attacking into the other is the attacker

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<v Speaker 3>almost always has a higher casualty count when you're especially

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<v Speaker 3>making any incursion, but then once after block the third

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<v Speaker 3>week of this, so so from late August on it's

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<v Speaker 3>been kind of a skirmish back and forth, and the

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<v Speaker 3>side that has the most firepower is going to inflict

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<v Speaker 3>the most casualties. And so it's entirely possible that it's

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<v Speaker 3>near equivalent between.

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<v Speaker 2>The two sides, but that's just speculation. There's no way

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<v Speaker 2>to know what it is.

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<v Speaker 3>The only thing we can say because it's conclusive, is

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<v Speaker 3>that we see that the territory is shrinking almost.

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<v Speaker 2>By the day.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and that's one thing I have observed, which is

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<v Speaker 1>a reflection of sort of the reality that you've been

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<v Speaker 1>talking about since we've been discussing this conflict.

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<v Speaker 2>Now.

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<v Speaker 1>The other thing I observe in correct me if I'm wrong,

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<v Speaker 1>there's so much of this information comes out. They use again,

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<v Speaker 1>the were Ukrainians some of those longer range missiles that

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<v Speaker 1>we supplied them with, and my reading of the information

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<v Speaker 1>was that the Russians shot them down. And we've talked

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<v Speaker 1>about this before. What's the point of giving them these

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<v Speaker 1>longer range missiles. If they have the ability, the demonstrably

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<v Speaker 1>proven ability to shoot them out of the sky before

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<v Speaker 1>they land on anything. We're wasting money and resources giving

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<v Speaker 1>them a tool of war that isn't effective.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, yeah, I mean that's one of the things that

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<v Speaker 3>I've been lamenting for quite some time now, because there

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<v Speaker 3>is a disconnect between the heart what Ukrainians want, what

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<v Speaker 3>Western leaders want, and then what is graphically evident on

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<v Speaker 3>the battlefield and what is possible And you have to

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<v Speaker 3>take the emotion out of it and do a cold

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<v Speaker 3>hearted calculation military power, What is the balance between the

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<v Speaker 3>two forces, what is the capabilities for offense and defense,

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<v Speaker 3>et cetera, And then you can say, all what is

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<v Speaker 3>possible here? Unfortunately, that calculation is never made in the West.

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<v Speaker 3>It certainly hasn't been for a long long time, and

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<v Speaker 3>they keep taking actions that they want to achieve a

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<v Speaker 3>certain outcome, oblivious to the fact that as is going

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<v Speaker 3>on right now in the Kerk Salient, the opposite is

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<v Speaker 3>is being manifest on the battlefield.

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<v Speaker 2>And look, they're losing everywhere.

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<v Speaker 3>You're talking about Trump coming in here now less than

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<v Speaker 3>three weeks and everybody's wanting him to have this great negotiation,

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<v Speaker 3>but right now his hand, when the day he assumes

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<v Speaker 3>power is going to be, is weaker by the day

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<v Speaker 3>because of the unreality that's clouding the judgment of the

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<v Speaker 3>people who are calling the shots in the war.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and not only that, you have I won't call

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<v Speaker 1>it victories, but you have progress being made on the

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<v Speaker 1>Russian side. The longer they this battle rages, the more

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<v Speaker 1>territory they seem to be taking over. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I can imagine Putin just saying, well, wait a second,

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<v Speaker 1>why would have want to negotiate you with over piece

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<v Speaker 1>unless you start giving me a giant chunk of Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>return for it.

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<v Speaker 2>You got it. That's exactly right.

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<v Speaker 3>That's the dilemma that's gonna face Trump when he comes

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<v Speaker 3>in that his emissary for the Rush of Ukraine War,

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<v Speaker 3>General Kellogg, was supposed to have landed in Kiev today

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<v Speaker 3>to start setting the stage for that, but he was

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<v Speaker 3>changed his mind.

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<v Speaker 2>And was recalled.

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<v Speaker 3>They didn't explain why, but I think it's because they're

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<v Speaker 3>reevaluating what's going on in the Trump team, because they're saying,

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<v Speaker 3>hang on, right now, we can't we might not even

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<v Speaker 3>be able to get what I'm calling the June fourteenth

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<v Speaker 3>line that Putin laid out this summer, where he said

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<v Speaker 3>he's gonna have all of those four old blasts, even

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<v Speaker 3>the parts they don't currently control, or they'll just keep

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<v Speaker 3>fighting and take it by force.

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<v Speaker 2>But here's the problem, Brian, if we go.

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<v Speaker 3>Down that path, they won't stop at those four old blasts.

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<v Speaker 3>So that is the real dilemma for Trump. Either negotiate

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<v Speaker 3>away something that Ukraine hasn't lost yet but stop there,

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<v Speaker 3>or try to get a better deal and end up

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<v Speaker 3>losing even more.

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<v Speaker 1>Wow. Well, let's pivot over to Zelensky. The name of

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<v Speaker 1>the article. It's by Kate Surkhan. Zelenski takes on Putin

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<v Speaker 1>apologists US skeptics on three hour Lex Friedman podcast. I

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<v Speaker 1>guess we would follow the category of US skeptics this morning, Daniel.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean I would.

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<v Speaker 1>Say that we're US realists. But anyway, I like that.

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<v Speaker 1>I like that a lot better because we are realists.

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<v Speaker 1>We were only pointing out facts here. It's not that

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<v Speaker 1>we want We don't want the Russians to win, we

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<v Speaker 1>want the Ukrainians to lose. This is you're dealing with

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<v Speaker 1>factual information. How does Zelenski respond to this? Conversation that

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<v Speaker 1>you and I are having. I mean, when we point

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<v Speaker 1>out you can have all the Atkam missiles that you want,

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<v Speaker 1>but if the Russians can shoot down every damn one

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<v Speaker 1>of them, how are you going to use it to

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<v Speaker 1>your advantage? And to what end do you think this

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<v Speaker 1>is gonna going to serve you? How does he respond

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<v Speaker 1>to that?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, listen, I watch good portions of that three hour interview,

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<v Speaker 3>and it was very illuminating because it just shows that

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<v Speaker 3>Zelensky is his brain is just and I'm not saying

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<v Speaker 3>this in any harsh way, only in observation. It is

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<v Speaker 3>disconnected from the reality. And I think that the truth

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<v Speaker 3>is starting to press in on his psyche and he

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<v Speaker 3>realizes there is no good way out There is none,

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<v Speaker 3>and instead of acknowledging that in trying to make the

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<v Speaker 3>best of an ugly situation, he's still clinging to this

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<v Speaker 3>fiction that there's a good deal to be had out there.

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<v Speaker 2>And several times in that interview.

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<v Speaker 3>Lex tried to say, and he's very much pro Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 3>He's ford Zelenski. He tried several times to say, listen,

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<v Speaker 3>but if you're not even talking to the Russian side,

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<v Speaker 3>if you're not even giving them a reason to have

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<v Speaker 3>that negotiation that you're seeking and that outcome. He said

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<v Speaker 3>that Putin doesn't have to do it, and the guy

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<v Speaker 3>just wouldn't the Zelensky just wouldn't listen. He would just

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<v Speaker 3>run back to Oh, Putin is evil, he's vicious. You

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<v Speaker 3>can't talk to him. And he's like, it doesn't matter

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<v Speaker 3>whether you think it is. If you don't talk to him,

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<v Speaker 3>he'll defeat your country and he just can't get.

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<v Speaker 2>There, Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>So it basically sounds to me like this boils down

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<v Speaker 1>to a politician who's been backed into a corner, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's gonna be known by history as the guy who

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<v Speaker 1>lost a sizeable chunk of his country fighting a battle

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<v Speaker 1>against the Russians, along with an almost uncountable number of

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<v Speaker 1>human human lives.

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<v Speaker 3>Or Brian, he'll be the guy that lost the war.

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<v Speaker 3>If you don't negotiate an end now to that's not

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<v Speaker 3>good terms, then you're gonna lose the war. That is

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<v Speaker 3>the horrible situation that they face right.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, and that means losing Ukraine completely to Russia.

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<v Speaker 3>It's gone far enough, yes, because Russia has the ability

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<v Speaker 3>and the capacity and definitely the will to do that,

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<v Speaker 3>but if Trump can come in and make a negotiation

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<v Speaker 3>short of that, that's still possible. So there is something hope,

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<v Speaker 3>but only if Zelensky is ready to start.

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<v Speaker 1>Dealing with reality. Daniel Davis Deep Dive. I enjoyed every Tuesday.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm happy for the new calendar year and another opportunity.

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<v Speaker 1>Need to talk with mister retire Lieutenant Colonel Davis every

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<v Speaker 1>Tuesday at eight thirty my friend again, a pleasure to

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<v Speaker 1>see your face. Just a wonderful conversation. It's engaging and

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<v Speaker 1>quite often frightening. But again, like you said, we're just

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<v Speaker 1>talking fat.

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<v Speaker 2>It's true.

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<v Speaker 1>It's true. Yeah, God love you, sir. Look forward to

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<v Speaker 1>next Tuesday. Take care, see you next week. A forty

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<v Speaker 1>fifty five care ce DE Talk Stations stick around. We

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<v Speaker 1>got a little more talk about. Plus my friend Steve

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<v Speaker 1>from USA Intilation for Ask the Expert. That'll be the

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<v Speaker 1>tail end of the program. I'll be right back.

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<v Speaker 3>This is fifty five KRC an iHeartRadio station.

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<v Speaker 2>Steve Perrins coordinated