Speaker 1: I want to know who we like for Monday Night Football,
maybe some barking dogs. This week is the Deli back open,
and we know VR is going to bring you all
of that information from the wise guys.
Speaker 2: NFL Week five is up next on bet on It.
Speaker 1: To the right of me, we've got Marco DiAngelo, you
guys know him as Marco and Vegas. We've got Yanni
Corrals you guys know him as the Greek Gambler. I
call him VR back in the day, Vegas Runner, and
I am Kelly Stewart. This is beat on It, the
NFL edition, specifically Week five. We're gonna get right into
it here with Thursday Night Football. San Francisco. Boy, oh boy,
is this one gotten out of control? Up to six
and a half here on the Odds logic screen at
the Rams are the total sitting here at forty six
and a half.
Speaker 2: Talk to me about this INN FC West matchup.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: And the reason I wanted to touch on this game is
the TV game is because it's it makes it easy
for a handicapper and the sports better because you look
at this betting line right now and you only have
one option, and that's do I like San Francisco catching
seven or is it a pass because you can't bet
the Rams.
Speaker 3: The Rams in this spot is just not.
Speaker 4: A good bet only because if you don't have that
ticket in your pocket already, you're buying at the absolute
worst time and regardless of outcome, that's just not a
good way to do this because a week ago they
were minus three and a half four, then you had
a couple of days to bet him at four and
a half, You had a few days to bet them
at five, five and a half, six, six and a half.
So again, once it gets the seven, a key number
of seven, that the bet becomes easy. It's either a
dog or pass situation because we're not gonna take the
worst of it with the Rams here, which I think
is obviously an inflated price coming off of their win
compared to San Francisco the way they look. But I
just think this line's now a little bit too inflated,
Like eventually it gets to a point where it's an overreaction,
and I think that's what we're looking at right now
because prior to Purdy returning, San Francisco is actually outperforming
the betting market. There was supposed to be a big
drop off and that just didn't happen. They ended up,
you know, winning at New Orleans. They ended up beating
Arizona by one. Then he returns, loses and all of
a sudden, all those cluster injuries compounded have just forced
bookmakers to keep moving this line, and that's just them
trying to protect themselves against risk. But again, there's not
sharp betters out there laying the seven. The only shot
you should be looking at the Rams is if it
gets to seven and a half, then you want to
look at the teaser. Then that makes sense on betting
the Rams. If I see seven and a half's or
eight across the board, but where it sits right now
at seven again, I'm forced to either bet the dog
or pass.
Speaker 3: And personally, I think there's a little bit of value
on this dog.
Speaker 4: In San Francisco Divisional game, you know they're going to
show up. Usually the market overreacts to what players are worth.
I think that's happening right now. And again you have
a RAMS team that's coming off impressive win against Indianapolis
and now it gets to play at home again.
Speaker 3: This line's just too high for me. It's dogg or pass.
Speaker 4: I don't know if I'll be on San Francisco, but
I do like the Niners a little bit. And like
I said, though, if it goes above a touchdown, I'll
probably look to the possible teaser spot for the Rams.
But for the pick for the show, it's San Francisco
plus the seven and see how it does.
Speaker 1: Speaking of teasers spots, this is an interesting one. Sunday
Night Football. New England is seven and a half at Buffalo.
Marco forty nine and a half here as the total.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Kelly, no question, there's gonna be a ton of
Buffalo teasers in this game. The books are gonna need
New England come Sunday. But we got to handicap the
game as it is. And you go back to last week.
Buffalo was in a major flat spot. They were coming
off their first three wins of the season. They beat
Baltimore in a come from behind win. Then they had
two division games against the Jets and Dolphins, Dolphins being
the last one on Thursday Night football. And you're coming
off all of that, and what do you got. You
got the Saints coming to town, and you know nobody's
you know, striking fear, and when the streets when the
Saints come marching in. But that's exactly why you know
free play Sunday morning, I gave out this ats that
was a horrible spot for Buffalo Sandwich between two primetime
games the Monday, the Thursday night game against Miami in
this Sunday night game against another division rival. So you
saw lackluster performance. How many times do I tell you
when you get these big favorites that have that lackluster
performance and I know the final score, they almost got there,
but Kelly, I know anybody that had them in Survivor
got a little worried there in the third quarter when
it was a four point game and the Saints had
the ball. But then you know, things righted the ship
and they ended up getting the win, but not the
clever And that's all we're about is who covers. We
don't care who wins. We care about who covers, and
the Saints got the money. You'll get a focused effort
from Buffalo this week, and I expect them to put
up points. I know New England's coming in here off
of scoreing a ton last week, but when you score
forty two and your opponent's Carolina, that doesn't impress me.
And I know they also scored thirty three earlier in
the year against Miami, and we know Miami's had their problems.
But what I'm gonna point out is, yeah, they had
two high scoring games, but what about the other two games?
They were held to thirteen points by the Raiders and
held to fourteen points by my Steelers, and Steelers defense
is not played that well this year, so I don't
think they can trade points in this game. With Josh Allen,
he'll be focused. It's a division game, it's a TV game.
We get the best of the Bills. There's only one
way I can play this game. That is with Buffalo,
and yes, I like Buffalo minus the points. But yeah,
I may have a couple teasers as well, Kelly. As
you know, those teasers have been doing very well.
Speaker 2: Yes they have.
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about them here in the Steam segment
with VR, But first we got to talk about Monday
night football. Kansas City is a three and a half
point favorite at Jacksonville total forty six and a half,
and honestly, I.
Speaker 2: Went dog or under here. I kind of went back
and forth.
Speaker 1: Teddy and I do the opening line report here on
the wager Talk YouTube channel on Monday mornings, and I said, Teddy,
what is going on with this line?
Speaker 2: What am I missing here?
Speaker 1: Jacksonville, I believe was Marco's barking dog last week, and
we were both on them in that spot versus San France.
I think we were both on Kansas City, if I
remember correctly, versus the Ravens, And hey, look, I don't
want to take away from what Kansas City was able
to do for me last week. I appreciate getting to
cash that ticket and get another win in the contents,
but let's look at kind of the verse there. The Ravens, well,
there was a lot of injuries that started to pile
up there. But I'm gonna give the Kansas City defense
a little bit of credit. They were able to stifle
Lamar before ultimately he left the game. On the other
side of that, let's look at the Jacksonville defense and
what they've been able to do.
Speaker 2: So look at the metrics.
Speaker 1: Both these teams really tight, and ultimately wanted to make
a case for Jacksonville. I wanted to make a case
for the under I'm giving you guys both here for
Monday Night football, but for the show, I'm gonna give
you guys the under.
Speaker 2: I found this stat I think it was from our
good friend Ralph Michaels. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I read a lot of things come Wednesday, but unders
Monday nights eighty three, thirty five and one since twenty sixteen.
If you guys are looking for this pattern, Monday night
road favorites of one to ten, that is the Chiefs
and Jaguars this week when the line is less than
fifty points, and just over the last five years it's
three and twenty one. That is eighty eight percent to
the under. So I'm gonna take the easier route here
instead of betting against the Kansas City Chiefs because I
don't want to hear it from the comments section. Give
me under forty six and a half here on Monday
Night football. You're up next here with the steam room,
but first got to do it. I gotta ask you guys,
give us a little bit of love here, whether it's
in the comments section, whether you want to give us
a like or get that thumbs up so you never
miss another moment here on the way, you're talking YouTube
Channel VR's steam room. He's given us information, actionable info
to use as part of our handicap. Get your pens
and papers ready, because I'm.
Speaker 4: Gonna let my guy go all right, and a little
early in the week, but already getting down on some NFL,
especially on those look aheadlines. Pay attention to those, and
as I touched on weekend and week out, and then
look at the od's logic screen on Monday, and see
what the adjustments are made after that, because again the
look aheadlines, the limits are low. With that said, let's
dive right in. Start off with four to sixty three
Miami at a pick them for sixty nine. Denver plus
four and a half. Denver plus four steamed them while
the Monday night game hadn't even started. They were betting
Denver against the Eagles for seventy two. New Orleans at
a pickum and minus one for seventy.
Speaker 3: Nine the Lions.
Speaker 4: They steamed the Lions last week, got the money. They
came right back in, laid ten with the Lions and
went over forty nine. Talk about getting out ahead of
the public on both of those. For seventy five Tennessee
from plus nine and a half all the way down
the plus eight. They laid the three with Seattle and
finally New England Buffalo under fifty on that total, So
already some NFL action for this week. But Sunday we'll
be in the steam room in that final hour going
through each and every game side totals, props, and of
course fifteen minutes for kickoff we tie in those teasers
that are now eight and one heading into this week.
Speaker 1: So VR, my partner Chris and I in the Survivor
there at the West Gate and were talking about this.
He sent attacks to John Murray and goes who bet
the Titans? And I said, I have a feeling I'm
gonna find out tomorrow who bet the Titans. Can you
tell me what the seam is on the Titans here?
And should I be a little concerned maybe holding an
Arizona Survivor's seat.
Speaker 4: No, it's it's good two way action as far as
the betting public goes. I think it's a case of
a team getting shut out like Tennessee did last week,
and there's nothing more embarrassing than that, especially in an
NFL game. Not being able to put up, you know,
any points at all, usually going to be some recency
bias attached to that. I think that's what you're looking
at here. And also it was above that that seven.
But personally, cal I'll be looking to tease Arizona down
because I don't think this is going to get down
to seven across the board. I'd be surprised if they
got there in the seven. I'd be a little worried
on that Arizona survivor to but as long as it
stays above a touchdown, I wouldn't be too concerned. Again,
the teaser protection opened up at nine and a half,
but that sharp money came in on Tennessee, and I
think it is just the result of them getting shut out,
and you know, the overreaction because of that shutout, and
I just think they concluded the lines a little bit
too high, and based on power ratings, I do I
think it is. I mean, obviously Tennessee is the worst
team in all of the NFL power rating wise, but
still seven and a half, so eight is a lot
of points to be given them in this spot for Arizona,
so I could see why they took the points, but
I think you're safe with your survivor pick.
Speaker 1: All right, Speaking of those teasers, Giants, Cardinals, Jets, Bills, Commanders,
so far on my list for this week, I do
not have my odds logic screen open. So I apologize
if any of those have moved since VR. Let's talk
about these teasers, because I thought the Jets that's we're
gonna really hurt me there on Monday night they back
to our those teasers once again.
Speaker 2: If we're looking for these teasers right, well, actually, you
know what, here's a great one. I got a tweet
yesterday from a guy saying.
Speaker 1: Kelly X Major Sports book is offering ten point teasers,
and I said, what's the juice? And then he's sending
me screenshots and I'm going, you're laying minus one twenty
on ten point teasers.
Speaker 2: Huh bud, that is uh, that is a pretty wild thing.
Speaker 1: So I want to got to talk about some teasers here,
what people should be looking for. Again, I know everybody
in the comment section hates it. I say I have
minus one ten teasers with a guy. I'm sorry. Ask
around you, ask your local guy. If he'll give you
minus one ten teasers, you'd be surprised what you guys
can get at your disposal.
Speaker 2: VR kind of talk about the math there and what
people should be looking for.
Speaker 1: I know, my laying more than minus one twenty on
a six point two team teaser is unacceptable. Minus one
twenty on a three point ten point teaser I thought
was a little egregious.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but we're simply looking the lay six point teasers
and trying not to lay more than one twenty. I
know it's hard to find these days, but like Kelly said,
it is out there, especially with a lot of the
credit outs one twenty five at worse. Because here's the thing.
If you're teasing numbers and looking the place plus EV
tasers where you really don't care about who the team is,
you simply want to place plus EV bets where you
know you have the edge. There's one thing you gotta do.
You got to tease through the numbers three, six, and seven,
and doing that at even money gives you a five
percent edge. Doing that at minus win twenty gives you
about a two point two percent edge. Doing that at
minus one twenty five maybe gives you a one percent edge.
Anything greater than that you no longer have the advantage.
So it's no longer advantageous to tease.
Speaker 3: It's it's I can't.
Speaker 4: Put it any simpler than that. Where if you're laying
more than one twenty five for six point teaser, you're
that are off straight betting both long term, your results
will actually be better not taking those extra six points
and laying that juice. Then if you just break up
your two bets and split them right down the middle
at minus one ten, I promise you you'll do better
long term. Also, the sometimes they're they're the books'll will
have odds that are off. Like if you see a
three team six point teasers at plus one eighty or better.
There was a time where you were getting plus one
eighty on three team six point teasers. That was the
exact equivalent of getting even money on a six point teaser.
So on a on a even money two team teaser,
so you still have that same five percent edge, But
again it's all going to come back to what they're paying.
If they're not paying plus one eighty or better on
a three team six point teaser, again it's not advantageous.
So the best advice I could give you keep it
to sick points, keep it to two teams, don't lay
more than one twenty five teas through three, six, and seven.
Those are simple rules. They're guidelines that we've stuck to.
We don't break them, and they produce good results. I
urge you to wait until closer to kick off because
you want the line to be efficient. That's when totals
cash at the highest clip because the game lands close
and you do that and you should be able to
make money in the NFL. It really is that simple, Kel,
But you got to stick to the rules like you can't.
You know they sometimes it's borderline.
Speaker 3: Just let it go.
Speaker 4: That's what I've been doing lately, had a lot more discipline,
and the results have have produced.
Speaker 1: Just because our good friend Press there on Last Call
Monday Night with Joe Madden said two's a dead number,
and I thought, hmmm, I think you're wrong there, Press.
I made a phone call to our good friend Ralph Michael.
So on the Mega Show or on his TNA segment,
he's actually going to break down the key numbers for
you guys.
Speaker 2: Guess what the fifth key number is?
Speaker 3: Now?
Speaker 2: It's two.
Speaker 1: Sorry, Marco usually gets to throw the shade on this show,
but I'm throwing some shade this time. So definitely check
out that TNA edition because I specifically asked for since
moving the pat back and what we've seen since then,
I want to know what the new key numbers are.
Different things coming to play every single year as the
league changes the rules. Thus key numbers are going to change,
all right, guys, Barking dogs have been great except for
the Colts last week. Thank you guys for that one.
Oh well, it is what it is. Marco di'angelo, you
were on that one as well. You know, the Lord
give it and the Lord take it away from a
gambling perspective, because I was against the Rams and then
the Rams gave me one right back, or maybe ad
Mitchell did, since he decided not to drop that twelve
ounce football about on a half yard line and for
a touchback. Okay, I'm done, barking dogs. Marco D'Angelo. You
gotta go first. Tell me I'm not done more.
Speaker 5: It was only to drop touchdown when he's crossing the plane.
He the same player was the guy called for the
holding on the long Taylor touchdown run. Yeah right, he
took two touchdowns off the board. But we're still okay, Kelly,
there's only a couple of minutes left in the game.
The Rams are getting the ball, They're gonna drive down
and kick a field goal. Right, we're getting three and
a half. You know what the Colts did. They only
had ten men on the field for that blown coverage.
Did you know that? Yeah, that was fun losing that one,
but hey, that is all part of it. There's been
one gut red chig loss each week in the NFL,
and that's why we love the NFL, because, as you say, Kelly,
for every team that wins that shouldn't have won, means
somebody that should have had a loser got a winner
and they're happy. We're not. So it'll come back around.
We got some in the gambling God's bank that they
owe us later in the season. But for this week's
show for the Barking Dog, I've got Denver VR talked
about it already, and this is a team that if
my mic suddenly goes silent, that's only gonna because our
producer does not want to hear what I'm about to say.
The Eagles are four to oh, but guys, let's be
realistic about it. They don't look like the same Eagles
team that won the super Bowl last year so far.
Maybe it's that you don't hangover effect the fat and
sassy from winning the super Bowl last year, but they've
won their four games by a combined twenty points. Now
you know, you got to give them credit. They have
played a tough schedule thus far. They opened up against
Dallas grounded. Dallas is not a good overall team, but
they're a division rival. They got an explosive offense. They
played them on that Thursday night game. Then you played
the Chiefs who were playing with Super Bowl revenge. Then
you played the Rams the next week, who had Playoffs
revenge as well. Those were big games for those opposing teams.
And then last week they had to travel to Tampa Bay.
That could have been the spot that they lost. They
got out to a big lead and then Tampa comes
storming back and made it close late. Sooner or later,
one of two things is going to happen. Either Philadelphia
is going to put together a complete game and blow
somebody out, or their luck is going to run out.
And I'm gonna go with the luck running out this week.
My concern with Philadelphia has been the last two weeks.
Where did the running game go one hundred and seventy
four yards on fifty nine rushing attempts. That's under three
yards of carry. That is not the Philadelphia team we
saw last year. Remember the year that Barkley had. Now
we can't expect him to have that same year this year.
But come on, you've cut Jalen Hurts and Barkley in
that backfield and you can't run the football. Philly has
a divisional game on deck. Granted it's only against the Giants,
but it is a division game. Giants always get up
for them. And when is it? It's on Thursday night.
Always got to look ahead to see who these teams
are playing, especially look to see who that Thursday night
game is. All right, this is a spot where Denver,
although they were underachieving so far this year, they finally
got things put together last week. Yeah, granted they played Cincinnati.
Bo Nicks finally had a breakout game against the poor defense.
But I have an old saying in with the horse racing.
You know, sometimes when your horse hasn't been doing well,
you need to regain its confidence. You drop the horse
in class. He can't read a program. He doesn't know
that he's playing an inferior foe. Hopefully nobody told bo
Nicks that that was only against the Cincinnati defense, and
he has another good game against the Eagles this week.
I think that Denver can shut down that running game.
They've held three of the four opponents this year so far,
they shut down their running games. Given the tough schedule
that Philly has played so far. In that divisional game
on Thursday, I think it is a tough spot for
the Eagles. I'm gonna go ahead and call it. And
this is where my mic goes dead. I'm sure Denver
twenty four Philly twenty oo.
Speaker 1: That's gonna be an interesting one. We're going to see
how Bonix responds. Pete doesn't turn the ball over. Marco,
I think you may get a cash yourself a ticket VR.
Speaker 2: You and I have some.
Speaker 1: Small dogs this week. Well, Marcos is pretty small too.
I love when we have those bigger dogs here in
the NFL, but this week is kind of just one
of those gross cards, and I don't love a whole lot.
Speaker 2: We were kind of talking off air.
Speaker 1: Finding five for the super contest or Circa is going.
Speaker 2: To be absolutely brutal.
Speaker 1: But give me your thoughts here in terms of teams
that can win outright, who do you think is barking
this week?
Speaker 4: Well, I gotta look the Washington and I'm biased towards
the Chargers, Like I have a Chargers season win total over,
I have a Chargers future to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3: So I want the Chargers to win football games.
Speaker 4: But this is just a bad timing game for Chargers
and perfect timing for Washington. Because Washington doesn't have any
problems on the offensive side of the ball. It really
doesn't matter, I'm telling you now, who's that quarterback. In fact,
if you look at passing success rate, which is one
of the highest correlations to winning, Jaden Daniels has been
below the NFL average so far this season and Mariota
has been above it. In fact, the highest quarterback rating
so far for Washington has been a game that Mariota
was the quarterback in. So the drop off just isn't
there to warrant the adjustment to the point spread, regardless
of who's that at quarterback.
Speaker 3: Coupled with all the injuries on.
Speaker 4: This San Diego side offensively the weakness of Washington's on
the defensive side of the ball. But when you have
an offensive line that's as banged up as the Chargers are,
that's gonna take a lot a lot of pressure off.
Speaker 3: Of this Washington defense. Like if they're gonna be.
Speaker 4: If they're able to pressure the quarterback, something that they've
been able to do against more stellar offensive lines. Then
that's gonna relieve a lot of the pressure on their
linebackers and in their secondary and that's exactly what Washington
needs right now. So again, the timing is perfect for
them to go into San Diego and get an out
of conference win. I think the Chargers offense is starting
to come back to life after that first week or two.
I mean, they were gonna regress.
Speaker 5: It was.
Speaker 4: It was an outlier kind of box score, so that
was expected again, and I like the Chargers as a whole,
but I just think this week does not set up
well for them. And I do like Washington, who's being
overlooked here. I think this line should be closer.
Speaker 3: To a pick them.
Speaker 4: You're giving me three points, key number, give me the
skins and sprinkle that money line.
Speaker 1: All right, and I'm gonna take the ugliest dog on
the board, and that is the New York Jets. We
just saw them on Monday night. Have to backdoor their
way into the teaser spots. I'll thank them for that,
But reality is they're a pretty good fourth quarter team.
Let's look and see what they've done over the past
four weeks, and that is they come out of nowhere.
We saw it against the Bucks as well, to finally
play late. Now we could argue that the Dallas Cowboys
are doing the exact same. They started off absolutely dreadful
in that first quarter versus the Packers, and then next
thing you know, the game turned on its head. They
were up at halftime, and they ended up in a
forty forty tie. I woke up at three am, like
what just happened. I did kind of feel bad for
survivor backers because I've had that tie before and that's
not any fun.
Speaker 2: Just lose the damn game outright.
Speaker 1: That being said, I think Dak Prescott's playing at a
very high level right now. Seventy two point nine percent
right that is this completion percentage, almost two hundred and
eighty passing yards per game. I do think this is
a good team, but they're just laying a easily two
and a half points at the Jets. I think we
need to kind of look at this one right here,
and remember now we're asking them to go on the
road and just beat a Jets team that is kind
of licking their wounds from a divisional spot here on
a Monday night. The Cowboys are good, but that defense
is easily exploitable.
Speaker 2: Just ask Caleb Williams.
Speaker 1: Give me the Jets plus two and a half, give
me the Jets and teasers, and oh, while we're at it,
give me the Jets on the money line.
Speaker 3: Tst Jets Jets.
Speaker 2: Oh, love to hear it, love to hear it, I know.
Speaker 1: And then I'm gonna be posting the Bart Simpson meme
here in just a little bit. I will not at
the best Jets. Yeah, I know how Sunday is gonna
go for me, but I do think the Jets get
a win here Marco DiAngelo, speaking of wins, the.
Speaker 2: Deli has been absolutely electric.
Speaker 1: If you guys are watching the Mega Show, which is
our college football show, an NFL show combined here on
the wager Talk YouTube chair, we just made it nice,
easy packaged for you guys. You've got the extra Deli
over there, You've got Ralph Michaels TNA, and of course
you've got Stockwatch, or you can just search for Marco's
Deli here on its own. It will be up earlier
in the week.
Speaker 2: For those insiders. That's right. Two dollars and ninety nine cents.
Speaker 1: You can join the wager Talk Insiders, WT Dot Buzz
Backslash Insiders, Marco hitting at a nice clip here in
the deli. We've got NFL Week five underway, and this
one's an interesting sandwich spot because we saw them open
up as a dog.
Speaker 5: And now, yeah, yeah, Kelly, And here's the thing, you know,
look out, the New York Giants are undefeated with Jackson
Dart as their quarterback, and everybody's all excited in New York.
Just pump the brakes. Okay, we were all over the
Giants last week. All of us here on the show
loved the Giants because it was about the spot. The
Chargers were in a horrible spot last week and they
had to travel cross country after sweeping their three division
rivals to open up the season, and they were on
the road for the third time in four weeks. And
it was a cross country early start on the East Coast. Yeah,
that was a perfect storm for the Chargers to get
the job done. Now it's the Giants in a bad spot.
They're coming off that win and they got to go
on the road. Okay, and granted, I get it, it's
the Saints or should we call them the Aints? But
come on, they opened up the favorite which was ridict
how could you make the Giants a favorite on the road?
And two have you looked at the schedule? Well, I
talked about it in the last segment. The Giants have
a monster game on deck. They got to play on
a Thursday night against their division rival, the defending Super
Bowl champs Philadelphia. Now you've got a rookie quarterback coming
off as first win, and I will give them credit.
Even though he didn't set the world on fire with stats,
there was a certain swagger to the team that they
didn't have with Russell Wilson, and down the road this
might be their quarterback. But this is a bad spot.
You're coming off your first win and now you've got
to go on the road in a game where the
line is virtually a pick them. You got to win
the game to cover. No, I don't want any part
of that. I don't want a rookie making his first
start on the road in a bad scheduling spot with
a big look ahead game. And make that look ahead
game on a short week on a Thursday, a TV spotlight.
That's going to be the rookies first nationally televised game
as an NFL starter. Yeah, no, give me the Saints.
This is all about the spot. And I know when
when people leave the comments when we do the Delianette,
they're always going to point out, how can you take
a bad team? Well, that's the whole premise of the show.
We're finding the spots where ugly teams can prevail. Okay,
we know, we say it all the time. The spreads
are the great equalizer, The situations are the great equalizer.
This is a spot that screams to take the Saints,
just like it's screened last week, to take the ugly giants.
Go with New Orleans. They get their first win of
the season, New Orleans twenty three to seventeen.
Speaker 1: All right, Marco, I'm gonna ask because you know that
the comment section loves when I talk about Survivor, and
I think people do like it. I know you guys
all complain, but if you like the Survivor talk, let
me know. Our producer Dan Alexander had the audacity for
her to start of the show says, I think I
might take Saints and Survivor. And I said, are you insane?
You just said you think the Saints are gonna win?
Would you burn a Survivor pick on them?
Speaker 5: I would not burn a Survivor pick I, I can,
I can lose you know, a one unit bet any
day of the week, okay, And that's you know, that's
part of the cost of doing business. You're talking about
something that your you know, your whole season is on
the line with you know, one of your entries for
the Survivor. Now, if you want to talk about it,
Kelly from game theory aspects of things, and this is
something that you know, I got into the conversation with
your partner from last year in Survivor, and I said that,
you know, if your goal is uh that maybe if
you're later in the season. You know how people talk about, oh, well,
the perceived value of your entry is x because of
how the number of people left. It is not. Not
every entry that's left with maybe four weeks to go
is worth the same amount of money. Yeah, if you
divide the number of entries by the price pool, there's
a dollar figure. But it depends on what teams you
have left. If you're able to use teams like the
Saints earlier in the season, it makes your entry worth
way more money later in the season because that means
you've got some better teams still left in your arsenal
that if you did try to sell that, you could
command more money on the market for selling.
Speaker 1: It, all right, And there's your handicapper answer. I uh,
there's just no way. There's no way, not with the Bills,
with the Lions, with the Colts, with the Cardinals, all
these other teams that are at your disposal, and VR
smiling because I'm looking at the script. So we're just
gonna go right into it with best huts because you
also like the Saints.
Speaker 4: I swear on my mother's life. I didn't know Marco
had that for his sandwich. In fact, I was gonna
use Denver as my dog, and I noticed he had
Denver already.
Speaker 3: I chose a different dog. I didn't see it on
the Saints, and I remember.
Speaker 4: I did it late last night. I got back from
the UFC, and I just I like the Saints. I
gave him out to my subscribers, had to pick them immediately.
I thought this was a great spot. Remember I was
big on the Giants. They were my dog last week.
They were a big bet for me for subscribers. I
thought the sprinkle was warranted because I thought the spot
was really good for them. But this is a terrible spot,
and I don't want to waste the viewer's time because
Mark O'Neill the handicap perfectly. He got a rookie quarterback
coming off of a historic win for the team, getting
them their first win of the season at home, and
now he's got to go on the road against a
winless Saint team in dire need of a w that
already has shown the splits. They play a lot better
at home. Just look at their point differential at home
compared to what it is on the road. If you're
ever going to back the Saints, this is where you
want to do it when they are playing at home.
And I think it's a good spot for them with
neighbors being lost for the season as well. I just
don't think it's gonna be an easy afternoon for the
Giants who got the pressure off of them, Like, not
only did you you know now you got your your
new starting quarterback, which.
Speaker 3: Is the youth. But he even got hurt.
Speaker 4: He's a little banged up from what I saw, Like
he's listed even as questionable because of the hamstring. So
you got a Jackson Dort who's not even one hundred
percent now going on the road again. He won the game.
He managed it well, but he threw the ball only
twenty times. He had one hundred and eleven yards passing.
He just didn't lose the game. He didn't go out
there and win the game. He just didn't lose it. Eventually,
you're gonna have to win football games, and on the road.
That's kind of what you have to do. I don't
see that happening. I like the Saints again. I won't
waste time. Just rewind everything that Marco said, second it
and even power rating wise, I think it makes sense.
Give me the Saints at home. Man, just don't lay
the three. Bet it now, lay the two and a half.
Don't lay the money line because the money line is
a little bit too high. We laid it when it
was like one ten, fifteen, But right now you're better
off laying the two and a half with the New
Orleans if you agree, or sit back, and maybe you'll
get three if you disagree.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, right now you get five hundred dollars
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wanted to throw that out there before we went to
Marco DiAngelo for his best bet.
Speaker 2: Marco, what do you have going on at wager talk
right now?
Speaker 5: Well, Kelly, we had a big week last week from
Thursday through Monday. We went put up a nine and
four mark for our clients. We're going to have a
five percent this weekend. College. I said it in the
other show, seven and one on our four percents in
higher NFL's winning we had a four to one Sunday
would have been five and oh if it wasn't for
those fricking colts. But let's you know, I'll take four
and one any anytime you want to dish that out,
We'll do that. And then we came back and went
on Monday Night as well. So it was a good
week all the way around. Join me grab, don't forget.
We talked about the long term package, but Kelly, there's
another package going at wager Talk this week. We've been
running the last few weeks and it's been such a success,
we're bringing it back Weekend Warrior forty nine dollars. You
can pick your favorite handicapper, get all of their plays
Saturday and Sunday in football, and if that capper has
a Monday night play, you'll get it free as a
free bonus as well. Just forty nine dollars. Check that out,
and it even includes the five percent plays. And you
know those five percent plays sell for thirty five dollars
by themselves, so it would be silly not to buy
the forty nine dollars deal. For my best bet, Kelly,
we're gonna head to the Great Northwest and we're gonna
look at the Seattle Seahawks, and Kelly, when you look
at this one for Tampa Bay. We always talk about,
you know, travel situations and everything else. This is the
longest road trip that there is in the NFL that
is either going from uh Seattle to Tampa or going
from Tampa to Seattle. Bad spot for Tampa Bay. And
I gotta tell you this Tampa Bay team, they are
a gritty team. They're three and one. Their only loss
came last week to Philadelphia. The three wins were all
come from behind fashion, and they almost did it for
a fourth week in a row. Last week, they fell
way behind the Eagle, made charge in the second half
and almost got there. I know Philly backers were getting
a little nervous there in that fourth quarter, but they
ended up losing by six. Seattle went on the road
last week. It was a hard fought Division game. They
had a big lead and almost blew it, but they
did prevail on Thursday Night football. Now, they've had a
couple extra days to prepare for Tampa and I think
given that added rest, given the schedule that Tampa Bay
has played so far, and the tough games that Tampa's
had and had to come from behind, I think this
is just a bad spot for Tampa to go on
the road. I also feel that this is a Seattle
team that's kind of flying under the radar. They have
yet to allow an opponent to score more than twenty
points this year. Now, granted, you know some will question
their schedule, but they have held three of their four
opponents to under ninety yards rushing. The only team to
top one hundred yards rushing against them was San Francisco
in Week one. But you know what, to get to
that one hundred and nineteen yards rushing, the forty nine
ers had to rush the ball thirty six times in
that game to do it. I also want to point
out that this is one of those spots we talk
about it. It's a phrase we like to use. Lose
the same game twice. Tampa Bay played host to the
defending Super Bowl champ Philadelphia Eagles. Last week. They lost
the you know, a game in close fashion. Are they
gonna come out maybe a little bit flat this week? Possible,
That's what I'm looking at. But here's what I'm gonna
look at. Seattle's three and one. The winner both teams
are three and one. The winner of this game is
gonna come out of this four in one. Uh, scratch
your head with that one. Last week we joked about
when we talked about the Baltimore Kansas City game, when
both teams entered that game at one in three, You're
excuse me, one and two? We said one of those
teams was gonna come out one in three. Nobody would
have thought that. But nobody would have thought that Seattle
could come out of the season and start four and one.
And I'm just gonna point one thing out for all
of the people that have bad mouthed Sam Donald and
I know that the last two games of the season
last year tarnished the year that he had. I'm gonna
point this out. From the beginning of last season through
this season, as a starting quarterback in the NFL, Sam
Darnald is seventeen and four the last twenty one games.
Think about that. How many NFL quarterbacks have a twenty
or have a seventeen and four record. I'm gonna go
ahead and take Seattle at what I think is a
low number here. I think the value is with them.
Let's take Seattle, lay the points on Sunday. I've got
them winning thirty one to twenty.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: As if we have not talked about the Colts at nauseum,
the Golts are my best bet for this week in
the NFL.
Speaker 2: I was on them last week.
Speaker 1: Marco has went over all of the reasons why that
they lost that football game, and it is gross That's
not a fun way to lose. But you know what
could also be worse. You could lose like we lost
Las Vegas last week. Do you guys remember that fifty
four yard game winning field goal blocked? Yeah, Ashton Johnson
looked like bo Jackson and they lost the game outright now,
for the third time this season, they get ahead East
in an early morning kickoff. Remember they already played New England,
which they squeaked out a win there, and then they
got whooped up on by Washington. Here's the reality. Geno
Smith is a liability. This man is a turn over machine.
This is absolutely disgusting. Even when they had the number
five offensive success rightly last week and the number two
passing siscuss that's.
Speaker 2: Right, they still could not win a football game.
Speaker 1: I know. Indianapolis in Vegas has been a closely contested
series in recent years, and the Raiders one is a
three point road underdog, or that a three point win,
excuse me in twenty twenty two as an underdog.
Speaker 2: But this is the reality. This is a much better
Colts team.
Speaker 1: And if those two touchdowns don't get called back last
week they go into LA and beat the Rams. The
Colts are going to bounce back after last week's loss,
and I think this is an absolute by low spot
for them here. Keep in mind six and a half
not seven and a half. I know a lot of
people are thinking it's a little fishy, but it's not.
I'm also going to take the Colts and survivor this week.
I know I'm gonna do a little bit of Cardinals,
but I'm gonna do a lot of Colts.
Speaker 2: I think this is a.
Speaker 1: Spot to utilize them to get the win here at home,
not only the win, but of course the cover for
you guys.
Speaker 2: All right, let's bring back in Marco and say goodbye.
Speaker 1: We appreciate you guys watching us here every single week
on bet on It. This has been the NFL edition
Week five, and there's your recap graphic that you guys
love so much. And of course, if you guys missed
the college football edition of bet on It, you can
catch it right here.
Speaker 2: And if you want to watch the Mega Show, it's
gonna be right here.
Speaker 1: That's why you're gonna get your TNA, your stock watch,
and of course you're DELI until next week.
Speaker 2: Guys. Let's bet on it