WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.120 --> 00:00:00.200 You. 2 00:00:00.440 --> 00:00:07.080 Chilly Effect is sponsored by Walls's Windows, Dott and listen, yeah, 3 00:00:07.360 --> 00:00:11.119 now agivated an audia. 4 00:00:13.519 --> 00:00:15.759 I'll tell you it's the twenty first day of January 5 00:00:15.880 --> 00:00:19.239 twenty twenty six, allegedly according to that thing we call 6 00:00:19.320 --> 00:00:22.760 a calendar. And I'm broadcasting late on a Wednesday here 7 00:00:23.640 --> 00:00:26.120 because usually I would have gone live at eight o'clock. 8 00:00:26.239 --> 00:00:29.320 But I made special arrangements. Why because I've got Larry 9 00:00:29.399 --> 00:00:32.560 Hancock with me, and you'll see the link to Larry's 10 00:00:32.600 --> 00:00:35.960 blog in the show notes. I might even provide you 11 00:00:36.039 --> 00:00:38.439 with a preview by sending you over to a series 12 00:00:38.479 --> 00:00:40.439 of articles he's writing on you know what, I'm going 13 00:00:40.479 --> 00:00:42.640 to save that for two weeks from now. And you 14 00:00:42.719 --> 00:00:47.560 know why, because I want to talk to Larry about well, 15 00:00:47.799 --> 00:00:51.039 the thing that he is expert in. You can't tell 16 00:00:51.079 --> 00:00:53.320 me that Larry Hancock, with all the books he's written 17 00:00:53.880 --> 00:00:56.320 and well written, and even people that sit there and go, 18 00:00:56.479 --> 00:00:59.880 I disagree with this guy, they all respect his opinion. 19 00:01:00.119 --> 00:01:02.479 They all respect the way he's written stuff. Because he 20 00:01:02.640 --> 00:01:05.879 brings receipts every single time. Nothing is ever like well, 21 00:01:05.920 --> 00:01:09.879 I speculate this just because I'm you know, I'm Larry Hancock. 22 00:01:10.040 --> 00:01:14.200 He doesn't do that. You got to check out his 23 00:01:14.319 --> 00:01:16.719 blog if you haven't, and if you're a longtime listener 24 00:01:16.760 --> 00:01:18.719 of the show, you know he's been here a while 25 00:01:18.840 --> 00:01:21.319 with me, and I'm so grateful that he puts up 26 00:01:21.359 --> 00:01:25.920 with me. But looking at what's happening in Europe right now, 27 00:01:26.599 --> 00:01:29.280 and I do mean in two places right not only 28 00:01:29.519 --> 00:01:32.400 the issue over Greenland, and well, we're just going to 29 00:01:32.439 --> 00:01:36.239 take that, I guess, but also you know, Ukraine is 30 00:01:36.319 --> 00:01:40.719 still happening I and on top of it, we have 31 00:01:40.920 --> 00:01:44.040 this situation with Iran that is apparently escalating and hardly 32 00:01:44.040 --> 00:01:49.760 anybody's paying attention to because we're taking Greenland. Okay, this 33 00:01:49.959 --> 00:01:53.000 is giving me a headache because I understand that the 34 00:01:53.040 --> 00:01:57.000 Trump administration is transactional. I understand that they are very 35 00:01:57.120 --> 00:02:00.760 results oriented. I understand the people tell me, oh, this 36 00:02:00.879 --> 00:02:04.200 is the change we wanted. Careful what you wish for, 37 00:02:04.959 --> 00:02:07.799 is all I got to say. But I need somebody 38 00:02:08.000 --> 00:02:12.000 to go through this with me and soberly explain to 39 00:02:12.080 --> 00:02:18.639 me what the national security benefits are, what the game 40 00:02:18.840 --> 00:02:21.000 is here. And by the way, there's always a hidden 41 00:02:21.080 --> 00:02:25.599 game in almost all of these issues of diplomacy. There's 42 00:02:25.639 --> 00:02:28.039 triangular diplomacy. And even if you don't intend it, or 43 00:02:28.080 --> 00:02:30.080 you don't game it out, or you don't play four dchs, 44 00:02:31.199 --> 00:02:37.199 there is always the unintended results the echoes of these 45 00:02:37.319 --> 00:02:40.639 things later on. And I'm telling you, I can't wait 46 00:02:40.719 --> 00:02:43.199 until people are surprised at all that as it happens 47 00:02:44.520 --> 00:02:48.199 from all of these situations which are one way or 48 00:02:48.199 --> 00:02:51.639 another interconnected. But again, Larry Hancock, if you look at 49 00:02:52.199 --> 00:02:57.800 surprise attack, shadow warfare, creating chaos, Larry, what other books 50 00:02:57.840 --> 00:03:01.680 would be good here to people like say, look, this 51 00:03:01.800 --> 00:03:04.039 is what you should study to understand the history of 52 00:03:04.680 --> 00:03:08.680 before we get into what this uh mess is about 53 00:03:08.719 --> 00:03:10.919 to make What should we do there? 54 00:03:11.000 --> 00:03:14.280 Well, I'd like to say, I'd like to say surprise 55 00:03:14.400 --> 00:03:17.000 attack check. But since we're not surprise, we've given up 56 00:03:17.080 --> 00:03:20.120 surprising anybody. We we like to tell them we're going 57 00:03:20.199 --> 00:03:23.280 to attack them for several weeks before we actually do, 58 00:03:24.159 --> 00:03:26.680 just to give them, you know, a fair opportunity to 59 00:03:26.759 --> 00:03:27.599 be ready for us. 60 00:03:28.039 --> 00:03:33.759 Uh. We used to think in terms as a operation, right, 61 00:03:43.400 --> 00:03:48.400 you're be be. 62 00:03:50.000 --> 00:03:54.759 You know, to protect forces about But anyway, so we 63 00:03:55.120 --> 00:03:58.879 surprisingly political warfare, asymmetrical warfare. 64 00:03:59.280 --> 00:03:59.919 This covers the. 65 00:04:02.280 --> 00:04:06.719 Well, right, Okay, so national security implications, right, and the 66 00:04:06.879 --> 00:04:11.479 idea that you'd want operational yeah, operational security, right, hang 67 00:04:11.560 --> 00:04:13.479 on just a second, like immute up for a second 68 00:04:13.560 --> 00:04:16.600 and just let it, let it re regain the bandwidth. 69 00:04:16.680 --> 00:04:18.639 I don't know why we were talking, just mine before 70 00:04:18.680 --> 00:04:22.480 I went to air and here we go might be 71 00:04:22.600 --> 00:04:28.920 my end jeez. Anyway, Uh, the thing is this, you'd 72 00:04:29.000 --> 00:04:33.040 think that revealing these things upfront is a serious violation 73 00:04:33.160 --> 00:04:36.800 of that. But we're not dealing in the subtlety and 74 00:04:36.959 --> 00:04:40.079 shadowy world that we were dealing in before. Because putting 75 00:04:40.160 --> 00:04:43.680 out the threat is also a move, because that's a 76 00:04:43.720 --> 00:04:45.519 way to say, well, now I'll just make deals with 77 00:04:45.680 --> 00:04:48.800 other people because they don't want me to make this move, 78 00:04:49.120 --> 00:04:52.720 or maybe they'll give me something in exchange, you know, Well, 79 00:04:52.720 --> 00:04:54.240 here's what we'll do. We'll let you build a base 80 00:04:54.279 --> 00:04:57.079 in our country instead of you taking our country, you know, 81 00:04:57.600 --> 00:05:01.839 things like this. That's the transact that might be acceptable 82 00:05:02.000 --> 00:05:05.399 in this case or not, depending right. I mean, that's 83 00:05:05.439 --> 00:05:07.519 almost seems to be the strategy. I mean, maybe I'm 84 00:05:07.560 --> 00:05:11.759 oversimplifying this. Perhaps I'm not understanding the forty chess. What 85 00:05:12.079 --> 00:05:13.160 are your thoughts there, Larry? 86 00:05:18.240 --> 00:05:23.079 Now, I think it does all that game it looks 87 00:05:23.160 --> 00:05:28.959 like it's military because we're deploying so many forces, we're consuming, 88 00:05:29.199 --> 00:05:34.120 we're consuming so much of our weaponry, We're expending a 89 00:05:34.279 --> 00:05:37.000 lot of resources right now. We expended a lot of 90 00:05:37.079 --> 00:05:42.399 resources that are hard to get in Venezuela. We're expending 91 00:05:42.439 --> 00:05:47.519 a lot of consumables in deploying aircraft carriers. And last 92 00:05:47.600 --> 00:05:53.759 night I watched tracks of twelve to twenty tankers at 93 00:05:53.839 --> 00:05:57.079 the east and clearly those tankers are being deployed towards 94 00:05:57.120 --> 00:06:00.720 Iran before we're deployed, and each of those stankers would 95 00:06:00.759 --> 00:06:04.680 normally be dragging four fighters with it we're deployed. I 96 00:06:04.759 --> 00:06:10.199 saw a graft today an immense amount of resources towards Iran, and. 97 00:06:10.279 --> 00:06:11.480 This is an expensive thing. 98 00:06:11.879 --> 00:06:16.480 Yeah, it's lots of wear and tear on pilots, on crews, 99 00:06:17.079 --> 00:06:21.120 aircraft carriers. But I think it's not really part of 100 00:06:21.959 --> 00:06:24.560 the military is going to stand or fall by itself. 101 00:06:24.759 --> 00:06:26.920 This is part of deal making, as you said, it's 102 00:06:27.279 --> 00:06:33.240 it's out front. When when we actually go to the tack, 103 00:06:33.360 --> 00:06:36.680 those transponders will be turned off as they were in Venezuela, 104 00:06:37.319 --> 00:06:39.199 you know, but it was it's part of the deal 105 00:06:39.240 --> 00:06:42.720 making up front. And I have I have to say, 106 00:06:44.079 --> 00:06:50.240 you know, transactional maybe okay, if you do do business 107 00:06:50.399 --> 00:06:55.399 this this way may be your successful tactical tactically for 108 00:06:55.480 --> 00:06:57.639 the short term, you know, in deal making a lot 109 00:06:57.800 --> 00:07:00.600 a lot of details. Deals can be a very productive 110 00:07:01.040 --> 00:07:01.879 in the short. 111 00:07:03.319 --> 00:07:04.279 Term, right. 112 00:07:04.720 --> 00:07:08.360 However, audios have long term consequences, kind of like a 113 00:07:08.439 --> 00:07:12.600 blue mortgage. Well, yeah, see mortgages. Mortgages are great. Balloon 114 00:07:12.720 --> 00:07:13.839 mortgages not so much. 115 00:07:14.040 --> 00:07:16.399 We'll see, there you go. And the one, you know, 116 00:07:16.519 --> 00:07:19.240 immediate consequence that's obvious is we're going to look at 117 00:07:19.279 --> 00:07:23.160 a National Defense Authorization Act for next year. That's going 118 00:07:23.240 --> 00:07:27.199 to require guess what, a higher budget, you know, because 119 00:07:27.240 --> 00:07:30.480 they do those every year basically under one batter or another. 120 00:07:30.639 --> 00:07:33.199 The military budget has to go up because guess what 121 00:07:33.360 --> 00:07:35.480 they wound up. They're gonna wind up spending a lot 122 00:07:35.920 --> 00:07:40.439 doing all these actions. Unless I'm wrong, I can't see 123 00:07:40.480 --> 00:07:44.519 how you do that without spending you know, additional resources, 124 00:07:44.560 --> 00:07:46.279 et cetera. Plus you're gonna have to replace things that 125 00:07:46.360 --> 00:07:49.480 are now spent in these operations. I mean, that's just 126 00:07:49.800 --> 00:07:53.639 the easiest, the low hanging fruit of the extended consequences. 127 00:07:53.759 --> 00:08:00.720 Unless I'm wrong, No, that's absolutely right. I mean there 128 00:08:00.759 --> 00:08:02.319 are consequences short term. 129 00:08:03.519 --> 00:08:07.120 One of our admirals requested not to deploy I think 130 00:08:07.160 --> 00:08:10.680 the Eisenhower back to the Gulf again, because it's been 131 00:08:10.879 --> 00:08:14.160 at sea for months. You've got a crew that's been 132 00:08:14.240 --> 00:08:17.959 deployed without any relief that aircraft carriers not had any 133 00:08:18.399 --> 00:08:22.199 import maintenance, and basically said, you know, this is there's 134 00:08:22.199 --> 00:08:24.680 gonna be consequences for my ship and my trew and 135 00:08:25.480 --> 00:08:26.399 personnel retention. 136 00:08:26.759 --> 00:08:27.639 This is not good. 137 00:08:27.920 --> 00:08:31.439 But it didn't matter. It's going anyway in any event. 138 00:08:31.879 --> 00:08:34.960 So, yeah, there are short term consequences, but I was 139 00:08:35.039 --> 00:08:40.240 thinking about the conquences, consequences longer term. But so to 140 00:08:40.320 --> 00:08:43.360 pull back, I think most of what we're seeing is, yeah, 141 00:08:43.840 --> 00:08:50.559 it's easy to cheer on deals when they're successful. It's 142 00:08:51.159 --> 00:08:54.840 harder to pull back and say, you know, okay, you 143 00:08:54.960 --> 00:08:57.879 and I have talked about the many, many regime change 144 00:08:57.960 --> 00:09:01.440 operations that the US did from Guatemala on. 145 00:09:01.759 --> 00:09:03.879 I mean, Guatemala. 146 00:09:05.440 --> 00:09:10.399 Was pretty much as easy and as successful as Venezuela. 147 00:09:11.080 --> 00:09:14.480 And by the way, now we're pretty sure regime change 148 00:09:14.519 --> 00:09:18.360 in Venezuela was not really regime change. We did a 149 00:09:18.480 --> 00:09:21.039 deal with their vice president who by the way, is 150 00:09:21.159 --> 00:09:25.960 on the DEA list for you know, drug smuggling and 151 00:09:26.039 --> 00:09:29.080 has been investigated. We did deal with her to let 152 00:09:29.159 --> 00:09:32.440 her and her regime essentially stay in power to sell 153 00:09:32.519 --> 00:09:33.120 us their oil. 154 00:09:33.960 --> 00:09:39.879 The snap shot of that oil, we're going to sell it, 155 00:09:40.399 --> 00:09:43.240 and you know what, the transparency plan. 156 00:09:43.159 --> 00:09:45.960 For tracking out actually goes back to benefit the average 157 00:09:46.000 --> 00:09:50.799 Venezuelan hasn't been published yet, but I would say, you know, 158 00:09:51.080 --> 00:09:53.960 there's you stand up and cheer about Guatemala. Oh, we 159 00:09:54.120 --> 00:09:57.840 free the Guatemalans from an evil dictatorship. We free the 160 00:09:57.960 --> 00:10:00.480 Venezuelans from the end. Then you can come back and 161 00:10:00.559 --> 00:10:03.240 you look at it five or ten later years later, 162 00:10:03.799 --> 00:10:09.279 and Guatemala ended up in the literal political genocide of 163 00:10:09.600 --> 00:10:12.799 tens of thousands of people over the next twenty years. 164 00:10:13.240 --> 00:10:16.919 We have no idea what's happening in Venezuela, but that 165 00:10:17.120 --> 00:10:21.279 regime is not not committed to popular elections. It's not 166 00:10:21.480 --> 00:10:25.679 released most of its political prisoners, and from what I'm seeing, 167 00:10:25.960 --> 00:10:30.080 most of the lower level regime figures are still there. 168 00:10:30.879 --> 00:10:35.320 You know, they didn't immediately walk off. So the net 169 00:10:35.440 --> 00:10:37.320 result we're not going to see. It's, like I say, 170 00:10:37.399 --> 00:10:41.399 easy to stand up and cheer. Being hard nosed short term, 171 00:10:42.679 --> 00:10:47.600 long term court consequences another story, right. 172 00:10:47.759 --> 00:10:50.440 So right, I mean, just like what we saw with 173 00:10:50.600 --> 00:10:55.600 those other ones and those historical regime changes perspectives, right 174 00:10:55.840 --> 00:10:58.759 like those other historical regime changes, what that winds up 175 00:10:58.840 --> 00:11:02.440 leading to is the issues in El Salvador. What that 176 00:11:02.559 --> 00:11:05.440 winds up leading to is the Contra situation, you know, 177 00:11:05.639 --> 00:11:09.960 a decade later, et cetera, et cetera, and that stuff 178 00:11:10.279 --> 00:11:13.559 was the unintended consequences and led to other actions. Some 179 00:11:13.679 --> 00:11:17.600 of those were covert, you know again, and it's but 180 00:11:17.679 --> 00:11:20.320 it's almost like we're not doing any sort of covert actions. 181 00:11:20.399 --> 00:11:23.799 We're threatening all kinds of things. And I mean the 182 00:11:23.879 --> 00:11:26.039 odd thing is we have a president who's almost upset 183 00:11:26.080 --> 00:11:27.559 when they go, well, when are you actually going to 184 00:11:27.639 --> 00:11:29.360 do the attack? And he goes, I'm not telling you. 185 00:11:29.879 --> 00:11:32.200 I mean I saw that press clip. I found that 186 00:11:32.399 --> 00:11:36.720 kind of hilarious. But I mean, you know, you're signaling 187 00:11:36.840 --> 00:11:39.159 all kinds of things to people in the world. I'm 188 00:11:39.200 --> 00:11:42.399 wondering if that's going to get anybody itchy enough, you know, 189 00:11:42.679 --> 00:11:47.399 to cause us more national security issues than say, you know, 190 00:11:47.600 --> 00:11:50.799 taking Greenland is supposed to solve. What do you think 191 00:11:50.840 --> 00:11:51.039 of that. 192 00:11:54.000 --> 00:11:57.240 Well in Latin America and South America, and you can 193 00:11:57.279 --> 00:11:59.360 see again we have the history there. 194 00:12:00.000 --> 00:12:03.360 Whenever we put a regime in place. 195 00:12:03.559 --> 00:12:06.440 As we've done for decades and decades and decades back 196 00:12:06.480 --> 00:12:11.600 to the you know, early nineteen hundreds, played eighteen, it 197 00:12:11.720 --> 00:12:12.960 was gunboat diplomacy. 198 00:12:13.200 --> 00:12:16.080 It was clear to everybody what we're doing. We wanted 199 00:12:16.159 --> 00:12:19.200 a regime in place that was friendly to the United States, 200 00:12:20.000 --> 00:12:20.960 and who doesn't want that. 201 00:12:21.759 --> 00:12:25.279 But what friendly to the United States always meant was 202 00:12:25.879 --> 00:12:28.159 selling us your resources at. 203 00:12:28.080 --> 00:12:31.440 A good deal for us, and we'll give you your 204 00:12:31.960 --> 00:12:34.440 the payment to the regime and how they use it, 205 00:12:35.159 --> 00:12:36.639 you know, let's see how it happens. 206 00:12:36.679 --> 00:12:40.559 That's not our thing, we you know, and it never 207 00:12:40.679 --> 00:12:45.240 worked out well. And that's why lots of Latin America, 208 00:12:45.679 --> 00:12:49.799 you know, as always considered us, the US as a 209 00:12:49.919 --> 00:12:54.919 colonial power. And certainly this will not diminish that, will 210 00:12:54.919 --> 00:12:56.159 They nod their heads. 211 00:12:55.919 --> 00:12:59.440 And go ahead and say, you bet, we'll do deals 212 00:12:59.519 --> 00:12:59.840 with you. 213 00:13:01.080 --> 00:13:03.440 Because they're afraid of being smashed. Sure, but these are 214 00:13:03.440 --> 00:13:06.559 smart people, and they also know how to do deals, 215 00:13:07.200 --> 00:13:11.759 and they also you know, it's it's it's not let's 216 00:13:11.840 --> 00:13:14.360 not assume that they're simple minded. They can easily see 217 00:13:14.399 --> 00:13:17.879 what's going on, and other powers can see what's going on. 218 00:13:18.120 --> 00:13:21.120 It's it's it's a return to that kind of relationship. 219 00:13:21.399 --> 00:13:25.639 There have been periods of time when we had good relationships. 220 00:13:25.960 --> 00:13:29.759 It's kind of like equal trade relationships. But we keep 221 00:13:30.519 --> 00:13:33.639 turning around and doing this periodically to let. 222 00:13:33.600 --> 00:13:35.720 Them know kind of like our real character. 223 00:13:37.720 --> 00:13:40.000 And so you know, we're we're going to be back 224 00:13:40.039 --> 00:13:43.279 to the ugly American says, it's I don't know, check 225 00:13:43.440 --> 00:13:44.000 I'm old enough. 226 00:13:44.039 --> 00:13:46.039 You ever heard the song Roman Coca Cola? 227 00:13:46.519 --> 00:13:48.679 Yes, yes, I have. 228 00:13:49.639 --> 00:13:50.840 Don't know what that means. 229 00:13:51.559 --> 00:13:55.159 It means the Yanks are here and they're spending money 230 00:13:55.200 --> 00:13:59.120 and they're taking There are women great Roman Coca cola. 231 00:13:59.519 --> 00:14:02.639 You know times, so let's party down. That was not 232 00:14:02.799 --> 00:14:05.919 a really friendly song, however it may sound. 233 00:14:06.440 --> 00:14:11.080 It's like they're taking advantage of us again. Okay, but 234 00:14:11.360 --> 00:14:15.960 that's so that's Latin America. But I think that Latin America. 235 00:14:16.799 --> 00:14:21.919 Short term, we got oil. You know, we've we've established 236 00:14:21.960 --> 00:14:25.879 what our position is in this hemisphere. So everybody's now 237 00:14:25.960 --> 00:14:29.799 knows how we're playing the game again. Long term, the 238 00:14:29.879 --> 00:14:32.679 consequences are pretty clear because we've done this before and 239 00:14:32.799 --> 00:14:37.840 we know what it looked like. The consequences for NATO 240 00:14:38.120 --> 00:14:41.679 and Greenland are far more severe, and I think far 241 00:14:41.799 --> 00:14:46.200 more severe. You actually saw it at the Median DeVos 242 00:14:47.080 --> 00:14:50.960 this week, and what you really saw was the Europeans 243 00:14:53.200 --> 00:14:57.519 raise their backs and say they are really big economic 244 00:14:57.679 --> 00:15:01.480 powers too. They have they own big markets, they own 245 00:15:01.559 --> 00:15:04.879 big purchasing, they do trade deals, and you listen to 246 00:15:05.000 --> 00:15:09.039 every one of their speakers stand up and say that. 247 00:15:09.440 --> 00:15:11.440 And I've sent a leak so you can hear some 248 00:15:11.600 --> 00:15:16.440 of their statements, powerful statements, far better statements than our statements. 249 00:15:16.679 --> 00:15:19.159 And what they all said was they all issued an 250 00:15:19.240 --> 00:15:24.639 open invitation to China to invest in Europe. That is tragic. 251 00:15:26.559 --> 00:15:30.679 The US owned European investment are these are friends, these 252 00:15:30.720 --> 00:15:34.759 are allies, and suddenly as of this week, they're looking 253 00:15:34.840 --> 00:15:38.360 for Chinese investment. Now, I can't think of anything. We're 254 00:15:38.440 --> 00:15:39.440 tragic long term. 255 00:15:39.679 --> 00:15:42.559 Now, that's the big question with all that, because is 256 00:15:42.639 --> 00:15:46.360 it performative to get Trump to back down? So listen, 257 00:15:46.440 --> 00:15:48.080 we'll keep things the way they are, but you got 258 00:15:48.159 --> 00:15:52.279 to knock this off, or is it really a legitimate call, 259 00:15:52.440 --> 00:15:55.559 Hey China, listen, we're willing to talk now because these 260 00:15:55.600 --> 00:15:59.120 guys are not being reasonable. Come be reasonable with us 261 00:15:59.120 --> 00:16:01.919 and we'll work it out. Or is it, you know, again, 262 00:16:02.360 --> 00:16:07.440 a transactional reaction to the Trump administration's posture. That's I 263 00:16:07.519 --> 00:16:09.000 think that's a fair question, don't you. 264 00:16:10.480 --> 00:16:13.320 Certainly it's a transactional reaction, and it appears to have 265 00:16:13.440 --> 00:16:17.879 worked today based on Trump's turnaround as far as tariffs. 266 00:16:18.240 --> 00:16:21.159 But I will tell you this, what Trump has done 267 00:16:21.200 --> 00:16:26.240 during the last year, constantly threatening different sets of tariffs, 268 00:16:27.120 --> 00:16:31.320 constantly putting on tariffs on individual products and pulling them off. 269 00:16:32.159 --> 00:16:37.120 That's that creates a very unstable situation for their business people. 270 00:16:37.799 --> 00:16:42.639 Forget about their politicians. Their politicians, I think effectively used 271 00:16:42.639 --> 00:16:49.039 it transactionally. But they're they have business people. I mean, 272 00:16:49.120 --> 00:16:53.919 they have people who do major investments, and they do 273 00:16:54.039 --> 00:16:59.159 strategic business planning. And I've got to tell you, if 274 00:16:59.240 --> 00:17:02.000 I'm in any one one of those countries doing five 275 00:17:02.480 --> 00:17:07.279 ten year strategic business plans, and I have no idea 276 00:17:07.400 --> 00:17:09.759 what the American president is going to do this week 277 00:17:09.880 --> 00:17:13.599 and next week on tariffs, what would what would be 278 00:17:13.680 --> 00:17:15.759 in your plan? I'm going to look for more stable 279 00:17:15.839 --> 00:17:18.119 sources and investment. I may not get on the rooftop 280 00:17:18.200 --> 00:17:23.039 and shout it. I may not say, you know, they'll 281 00:17:23.200 --> 00:17:25.480 just go ahead and do it there there. They have 282 00:17:25.680 --> 00:17:29.119 to look for stability in long term business. So yeah, 283 00:17:29.440 --> 00:17:33.279 politically transition actional, but business wise, I think it may 284 00:17:33.319 --> 00:17:34.079 be another story. 285 00:17:35.400 --> 00:17:38.240 Well see, there you go, because the immediate consequences of 286 00:17:38.319 --> 00:17:41.160 that problem are guess what, Yeah, if China comes in 287 00:17:41.279 --> 00:17:43.920 and gives them anything like a friendly deal, why not 288 00:17:44.079 --> 00:17:46.640 deal with them as opposed to us? If we're going 289 00:17:46.680 --> 00:17:50.039 to be the you know, the the instability. And by 290 00:17:50.079 --> 00:17:53.720 the way, if you go to Larryhancock dot WordPress dot com, 291 00:17:54.759 --> 00:17:58.160 which you just spell Larryhancock all one word dot WordPress 292 00:17:58.200 --> 00:18:00.880 dot com, that's where you can follow Larry's blog and 293 00:18:00.920 --> 00:18:03.240 he has talked about this in addition to other things. 294 00:18:03.759 --> 00:18:05.680 But I don't know if you've written all the way 295 00:18:05.759 --> 00:18:09.400 up to the Davos meeting about it, but it is 296 00:18:09.839 --> 00:18:14.440 it is something to witness. Good. Yeah, No, I have it. 297 00:18:14.519 --> 00:18:16.440 I don't think I can keep up with it, Chuck, 298 00:18:16.519 --> 00:18:17.279 I have to kind of. 299 00:18:17.599 --> 00:18:19.599 Before this show, I had to look, you know, ten 300 00:18:19.680 --> 00:18:22.799 different places to cratic you feel with the situation was 301 00:18:23.400 --> 00:18:27.519 today And at one point in my career I did 302 00:18:27.559 --> 00:18:31.039 strategic business planning right, And I would never hold a 303 00:18:31.119 --> 00:18:34.759 planning meeting under these circumstances and say, guys, you know, 304 00:18:35.759 --> 00:18:36.599 let's plan for this. 305 00:18:36.799 --> 00:18:39.559 You know, you look at your variables, what you. 306 00:18:39.880 --> 00:18:43.799 Look for, your value of cash, and you try to 307 00:18:43.880 --> 00:18:48.519 reject those and and for international business, terrace terras used 308 00:18:48.599 --> 00:18:52.519 not to be a big consideration. Now they've entered the 309 00:18:52.640 --> 00:18:55.839 field is a consideration, and it's certainly. 310 00:18:55.759 --> 00:18:59.440 Making things more chaotic. But no, I have not written 311 00:18:59.480 --> 00:19:02.440 about that. That's just trying to follow it. And I 312 00:19:02.559 --> 00:19:09.680 think if I think you saw it today, to the well, yesterday's. 313 00:19:09.200 --> 00:19:12.720 Point had gotten that the Europeans were ready to sign 314 00:19:12.839 --> 00:19:18.480 their trade deal with the administration. Yesterday they said no, 315 00:19:18.519 --> 00:19:21.440 we're not signing. We're going to back off. 316 00:19:21.759 --> 00:19:24.480 And I think to some extent, they finally. 317 00:19:24.279 --> 00:19:29.039 Realized their power, and they've realized the fact that signing 318 00:19:29.160 --> 00:19:32.960 deals doesn't necessarily mean what it used to mean, because 319 00:19:33.039 --> 00:19:34.359 that deal may only last. 320 00:19:34.480 --> 00:19:38.079 You know, they had a deal on the table that. 321 00:19:38.200 --> 00:19:41.200 We've negotiated, they're about to sign, and then over the 322 00:19:41.279 --> 00:19:45.079 weekend the president just says, oh, I'm going to increase 323 00:19:45.160 --> 00:19:46.640 at ten to twenty five percent. 324 00:19:47.599 --> 00:19:51.039 How did that effect? Where's our deal? You just changed 325 00:19:51.079 --> 00:19:55.759 the deal. You just can't tolerate that kind of dynamic. 326 00:19:56.039 --> 00:19:58.920 Well, not only that, but several times we've noticed this 327 00:19:59.039 --> 00:20:01.440 administration turned around and saying, you know what, we don't 328 00:20:01.519 --> 00:20:04.799 like the situation. We're withdrawing from some other you know, 329 00:20:05.079 --> 00:20:07.480 the deal we have, whatever it was, whether it was 330 00:20:07.519 --> 00:20:11.359 signed by a previous administration or not, and we're going 331 00:20:11.440 --> 00:20:13.000 to come back and give you a whole other idea. 332 00:20:13.240 --> 00:20:15.000 And then they don't even come back to the table. 333 00:20:15.880 --> 00:20:17.920 So you don't know what the Americans are going to 334 00:20:18.000 --> 00:20:23.039 do at this point. They are the definition of you know, unpredictable, 335 00:20:23.319 --> 00:20:25.599 you know, as far now. Some people say, well, that's 336 00:20:25.680 --> 00:20:29.599 part of Trump's genius. Look, I don't think for a 337 00:20:29.680 --> 00:20:32.440 second he's the guy designing this. Okay, he loves to 338 00:20:32.480 --> 00:20:35.599 make the statements. But the point is, this is what 339 00:20:35.640 --> 00:20:38.079 they're dealing with, is we don't know what happens. Even 340 00:20:38.119 --> 00:20:41.279 if we make an agreement, it may not even hold right. 341 00:20:43.119 --> 00:20:47.400 And there are these general agreements, and then there are 342 00:20:47.519 --> 00:20:50.759 all these product specific agreements. 343 00:20:51.119 --> 00:20:54.839 You know, we've excluded this, We've excluded that. Now this 344 00:20:55.039 --> 00:20:56.680 week will exclude something else. 345 00:20:56.799 --> 00:21:00.160 Or by the way, this week we decided that o're 346 00:21:00.359 --> 00:21:06.559 going to suspend this particular item for twelve months, okay. 347 00:21:06.799 --> 00:21:10.279 And the tariff we talked about being in place last week, 348 00:21:10.720 --> 00:21:14.039 we're going to postpone for twelve months, which sounds good okay, 349 00:21:14.599 --> 00:21:17.079 and that that is good to one, but it's not 350 00:21:17.240 --> 00:21:21.400 good for business planning. I got to tell you, how 351 00:21:21.440 --> 00:21:24.039 do you how do you use size your production? How 352 00:21:24.119 --> 00:21:27.160 do you size your inventories? How did how do you 353 00:21:27.240 --> 00:21:30.160 side your shipping logistics? These people got to got a 354 00:21:30.240 --> 00:21:32.880 book freighters and air cargo. 355 00:21:33.319 --> 00:21:36.759 And you need stability to do that and make it 356 00:21:37.200 --> 00:21:38.880 come out. Say you know you're going to have a problem. 357 00:21:39.440 --> 00:21:41.759 So a lot of that I think the general public 358 00:21:41.960 --> 00:21:43.000 is not following. 359 00:21:43.200 --> 00:21:47.119 I try to follow it, Like I haven't seen anybody 360 00:21:47.240 --> 00:21:50.599 say that they could actually write up a statement of 361 00:21:50.680 --> 00:21:55.319 what the terror situation is this week right across the 362 00:21:55.400 --> 00:21:57.720 board on all the products to all the countries. 363 00:21:57.880 --> 00:22:01.640 I know now we're collecting there's so many variables. 364 00:22:02.400 --> 00:22:04.640 Well you see That's where I'm at with it. Okay. 365 00:22:05.000 --> 00:22:06.960 Now when you look at that, okay, there's part of 366 00:22:07.000 --> 00:22:11.880 the European situation, but then also Ukraine because what could 367 00:22:11.960 --> 00:22:15.400 have happened this week if we were really engaged with 368 00:22:15.480 --> 00:22:18.440 that process where it seems like Trump just went, well, 369 00:22:18.519 --> 00:22:20.119 you know what, Putin wouldn't listen to me, so I 370 00:22:20.200 --> 00:22:24.119 give up. It almost seems like that in public, you know. 371 00:22:24.640 --> 00:22:28.000 And this is still a factor for Europe. I mean, 372 00:22:28.279 --> 00:22:30.319 you know, yeah, they've stepped up, and he says, oh, 373 00:22:30.400 --> 00:22:32.240 look I got him paying more in the NATO, so 374 00:22:32.400 --> 00:22:34.480 you know, NATO's actually doing something. But I don't know 375 00:22:34.519 --> 00:22:37.880 if I even need NATO, you know, like, regardless of 376 00:22:37.920 --> 00:22:39.480 the commitment, right. 377 00:22:40.960 --> 00:22:43.440 Like, yeah, I think I think. 378 00:22:43.359 --> 00:22:48.119 What's happening there is the North Atlantic Alliance presumed there 379 00:22:48.240 --> 00:22:52.359 was a presumption that America was under as much threat 380 00:22:52.359 --> 00:22:54.880 as European would you know, for the Soviet Union it 381 00:22:54.960 --> 00:22:59.720 would be a strategic threat, you know, and everybody needed 382 00:22:59.720 --> 00:23:04.200 recon together. What's happened over the last year with Ukraine 383 00:23:04.400 --> 00:23:14.240 is Russia has started asymmetric warfare against the Europeans, cyber warfare, sabotage, and. 384 00:23:14.279 --> 00:23:18.119 The Europeans know it. I mean, if you look at 385 00:23:18.160 --> 00:23:20.400 how many cables have. 386 00:23:20.480 --> 00:23:27.119 Been cut by Russian linked freighters, they know that they're 387 00:23:27.200 --> 00:23:31.359 already in asymmetric warfare. Putin is showing is trying to 388 00:23:31.440 --> 00:23:35.039 show them their weakness. He's not doing that to the US, 389 00:23:35.799 --> 00:23:39.240 So to some extent, Europe is already under attacked. The 390 00:23:39.400 --> 00:23:42.920 United States is not acknowledging that it's not to the 391 00:23:43.079 --> 00:23:46.799 level of where you invoke Article. But Europe needs knows 392 00:23:46.920 --> 00:23:52.200 that it needs to rearm and actually enter at least 393 00:23:52.279 --> 00:23:55.880 one level of combat already, which the US is not 394 00:23:56.000 --> 00:24:00.960 even acknowledging. So that has fragmented the alliances extent because 395 00:24:01.880 --> 00:24:05.640 we're ignoring what's happening between Russia and Europe, not just Ukraine, 396 00:24:06.319 --> 00:24:10.240 Russia and Europe, and Europe is again, if you listen 397 00:24:10.279 --> 00:24:14.240 to the speeches today, Europe is buckling up its belt 398 00:24:14.400 --> 00:24:16.839 and going, you know, either. 399 00:24:19.880 --> 00:24:22.119 Either we face up to this and form a new 400 00:24:22.200 --> 00:24:23.240 military alliance. 401 00:24:23.759 --> 00:24:27.079