WEBVTT 1 00:00:09.359 --> 00:00:13.599 Ryan Reno. Five months into the round war, when does 2 00:00:13.640 --> 00:00:14.439 the oil renewed? 3 00:00:16.359 --> 00:00:20.679 Very direct, so the Iranians close the Straight of Formos, 4 00:00:22.199 --> 00:00:26.480 that is a waterway that's responsible for about twenty percent 5 00:00:26.760 --> 00:00:32.679 of global or hydrocarbons or let's say crude oil and 6 00:00:33.039 --> 00:00:39.679 related products. And so far they've been letting some friendly 7 00:00:39.719 --> 00:00:45.679 forces through. Saudi Arabia has been able to redirect a 8 00:00:45.679 --> 00:00:51.200 lot of their capacity through the bab El Mandeb Straight 9 00:00:51.359 --> 00:00:54.359 of the Red Sea. Those things have started to come 10 00:00:54.439 --> 00:00:59.799 undone because now the Hoofies have closed that straight and 11 00:01:00.439 --> 00:01:04.519 it's looking like a moment of crisis. It's been a 12 00:01:04.640 --> 00:01:07.760 quiet week in the market, but not a quiet week 13 00:01:08.239 --> 00:01:08.840 in the action. 14 00:01:09.200 --> 00:01:10.239 On the ground. 15 00:01:10.719 --> 00:01:17.480 We saw hits on a Yamboo port, which is the 16 00:01:17.480 --> 00:01:19.840 port that the Saudis have been directed through their back 17 00:01:19.920 --> 00:01:25.079 up pipeline. We've seen hits on refineries on Saudi soil, 18 00:01:25.680 --> 00:01:29.640 and just today there was a hit on ab Cake, 19 00:01:29.959 --> 00:01:34.640 which is the biggest it's basically the most important refinery 20 00:01:34.640 --> 00:01:39.239 in the world. It turns the Saudi sour crude into 21 00:01:39.400 --> 00:01:43.519 sweet crude, which can actually be transported. So there are 22 00:01:43.519 --> 00:01:46.359 so many disruptions in the oil market. We can get 23 00:01:46.400 --> 00:01:49.680 into the details but that's the. 24 00:01:50.159 --> 00:01:50.799 Well so far. 25 00:01:50.959 --> 00:01:56.680 What seemed remarkable throughout this I mean, oil has spiked obviously, 26 00:01:56.879 --> 00:01:59.840 but I think by no, if you know, if you 27 00:02:00.159 --> 00:02:02.040 back five months and said it would drag out this 28 00:02:02.200 --> 00:02:05.359 long and Iran would close the straight I mean, it 29 00:02:05.400 --> 00:02:07.879 was real worst case scenario stuff in terms of how 30 00:02:08.120 --> 00:02:11.759 US war planners have war gained a potential conflict with Iran. 31 00:02:12.919 --> 00:02:15.439 But you know, even though as Trump said, he's like, yeah, 32 00:02:15.479 --> 00:02:17.560 you know, the oils has gone up, we actually expected 33 00:02:17.599 --> 00:02:19.280 to go up more. I mean, I think, you know, 34 00:02:19.360 --> 00:02:20.879 when you look at the situation now and now with 35 00:02:21.000 --> 00:02:25.319 the refinery has been hit in Saudi Arabia, you know, 36 00:02:25.520 --> 00:02:28.439 at the same time as there's a huge targant of 37 00:02:28.520 --> 00:02:32.919 refineries in Russia during the Ukraine War, it seems kind 38 00:02:32.919 --> 00:02:35.159 of incredible to me that we don't even have higher 39 00:02:35.159 --> 00:02:37.599 oil prices. That's not like one hundred and fifty dollars 40 00:02:37.639 --> 00:02:40.560 a barrel plus. I mean, is this just markets kind 41 00:02:40.560 --> 00:02:43.080 of in denial. Are they're just holding out for a 42 00:02:43.159 --> 00:02:46.400 dealers around the corner or what really explains. 43 00:02:45.879 --> 00:02:49.840 This well, market is a very short term, especially now 44 00:02:50.680 --> 00:02:54.280 and the way Trump has positioned himself being able to 45 00:02:54.560 --> 00:02:59.080 talk markets in the direction he wants. There's a psychological 46 00:03:00.199 --> 00:03:06.319 barrier to not oppose the trumper gender, especially in you know, 47 00:03:07.120 --> 00:03:14.560 months that are further down the future's curve. So there's 48 00:03:14.560 --> 00:03:17.879 a big difference between physical barrels of oil and paper 49 00:03:17.919 --> 00:03:20.280 barrels of oil that are traded on a futures market, 50 00:03:22.000 --> 00:03:26.400 and I think there's just a big absence of real 51 00:03:26.520 --> 00:03:31.319 trading in the months into twenty twenty seven, for example, 52 00:03:32.400 --> 00:03:36.560 and in the current year. It's possible to keep the 53 00:03:36.599 --> 00:03:40.960 oil price at a reasonable level by releasing strategic reserves. 54 00:03:41.000 --> 00:03:50.080 So the IEA coordinated strategic reserve release. Europeans released a lot, 55 00:03:50.199 --> 00:03:52.960 Americas were released a huge. 56 00:03:52.759 --> 00:03:54.000 Amount of their own reserves. 57 00:03:54.400 --> 00:03:58.840 And what surprised a lot of people was China was 58 00:03:58.879 --> 00:04:01.360 able to dip into their their own massive reserves. They 59 00:04:01.400 --> 00:04:03.680 have one point five billion barrels. 60 00:04:04.840 --> 00:04:05.680 In reserve. 61 00:04:06.000 --> 00:04:09.800 They were able to dip into that. They've actually they're 62 00:04:09.840 --> 00:04:13.400 a their energy is quite fungible and they're able to 63 00:04:13.400 --> 00:04:17.519 make synthetic fuels from coal as well, and they just 64 00:04:18.240 --> 00:04:23.959 decided to not refine using these what are called teapot 65 00:04:23.959 --> 00:04:31.079 refineries using discounted Iranian oil. So when the MoU was signed, 66 00:04:32.839 --> 00:04:38.199 the oil price really came down to a shockingly low price, 67 00:04:38.519 --> 00:04:42.639 and you know, these big American banks started creating target 68 00:04:42.680 --> 00:04:47.519 prices for twenty seven sixty five dollars, you know, seventy dollars, 69 00:04:47.519 --> 00:04:49.800 things like this, And I think a lot of those 70 00:04:49.839 --> 00:04:54.720 expectations are basically false because we have just lost so 71 00:04:54.920 --> 00:05:01.399 much of global supply already and it's looking as though 72 00:05:01.439 --> 00:05:03.519 that will continue to get worse. 73 00:05:03.759 --> 00:05:05.920 I mean, yeah, So the background to where we are 74 00:05:06.199 --> 00:05:10.399 knowing the Iran war is the m r U, which 75 00:05:11.000 --> 00:05:14.079 I mean, when it came out, it seemed like pretty 76 00:05:14.160 --> 00:05:17.120 much a capitulation to Iran. I mean, there was an 77 00:05:17.160 --> 00:05:21.360 acknowledgment that Iran, alongside Doorman, would control the straight of 78 00:05:21.399 --> 00:05:24.360 hormose traffic and would actually be able to tax it, 79 00:05:25.199 --> 00:05:30.160 that they were going to get hundreds of billions in compensation, 80 00:05:30.319 --> 00:05:34.480 basically war reparations. I see you smile, and you did 81 00:05:34.519 --> 00:05:37.040 call you did you did suggest that that should be 82 00:05:37.040 --> 00:05:39.560 the Iranian demand at the beginning of the war. 83 00:05:40.160 --> 00:05:41.800 It was in the first couple of weeks I. 84 00:05:42.160 --> 00:05:43.759 Think even got the number roads. I don't know. 85 00:05:43.800 --> 00:05:46.120 I think I said they should demand four hundred billion 86 00:05:46.160 --> 00:05:49.680 dollars and it ended up being three hundred billion. That 87 00:05:49.720 --> 00:05:52.920 they were talking about in the mu Yeah. 88 00:05:52.639 --> 00:05:54.920 All they got negotiated down for four hundred. 89 00:05:54.720 --> 00:05:56.560 Though maybe they were reading my tweets. 90 00:05:56.680 --> 00:06:01.319 Yeah, well it's just so influential as show as. But yeah, 91 00:06:01.360 --> 00:06:03.759 I mean a lot of people were shocked because you know, 92 00:06:03.800 --> 00:06:07.600 obviously there's been all sorts of copes throughout this right, 93 00:06:07.639 --> 00:06:10.879 you know, there are the people that see Trump doing 94 00:06:10.879 --> 00:06:13.319 no wrong. I think this was an enormous success. And 95 00:06:13.439 --> 00:06:15.920 I've been arguing with some of these people throughout this war, 96 00:06:15.959 --> 00:06:20.279 and you know, typically they point to how many missiles 97 00:06:20.279 --> 00:06:24.040 have been launched, how many Iranian leaders have been taken out, 98 00:06:24.519 --> 00:06:27.519 how much of their missile capability has been destroyed, which 99 00:06:27.560 --> 00:06:31.720 was massively exaggerated. But the entire time, I mean, you know, 100 00:06:31.800 --> 00:06:35.680 there there was an operational success for the US in 101 00:06:35.680 --> 00:06:38.399 a limited sense, but I mean strategically, it was clear 102 00:06:39.120 --> 00:06:41.000 very early on, i'd say in the first week of 103 00:06:41.000 --> 00:06:44.240 the war that this was a failure because when they 104 00:06:44.240 --> 00:06:48.199 took out the Aetola and other senior members of the 105 00:06:48.279 --> 00:06:50.560 Uranian government, I mean, it became very clear there wasn't 106 00:06:50.560 --> 00:06:53.680 going to be a regime change in the way they imagined. 107 00:06:54.240 --> 00:06:57.279 And I think Trump probably was led to believe by 108 00:06:57.319 --> 00:07:00.920 the people around them, that the Uranian people were ready 109 00:07:00.920 --> 00:07:02.720 to rise up, that this regime, you know, it just 110 00:07:02.759 --> 00:07:05.600 needed the door kicked in. He does seem to believe, 111 00:07:06.160 --> 00:07:10.279 as far as I can tell, these basically propaganda numbers 112 00:07:10.279 --> 00:07:12.319 that were going around. A body ran killing thirty forty 113 00:07:12.360 --> 00:07:17.680 thousand protesters last year. But yeah, at that point, there 114 00:07:17.720 --> 00:07:20.600 was no Plan B, you know, and Pete Hagsat was 115 00:07:20.639 --> 00:07:22.920 going out saying that the purpose of the war was 116 00:07:22.959 --> 00:07:26.839 to take out Iranian ability to launch missiles, which is, 117 00:07:27.120 --> 00:07:32.759 you know, clearly an impossible goal. Rubio was saying something else. 118 00:07:32.800 --> 00:07:34.879 Trump was saying something else dependent on the day he 119 00:07:35.439 --> 00:07:38.279 promised regime change. Then he turned around and said it 120 00:07:38.319 --> 00:07:40.800 was two or three days of limited strikes. At one point, 121 00:07:40.839 --> 00:07:44.279 he said, a couple of days into the war. So 122 00:07:44.439 --> 00:07:47.959 the justification has constantly been changing. But yeah, it was 123 00:07:48.000 --> 00:07:50.519 a real kick in the teeth for some people when 124 00:07:50.519 --> 00:07:53.399 they started. Actually, the US was willing to see these 125 00:07:53.480 --> 00:07:57.439 major Iranian demands that you couldn't have imagined prior to 126 00:07:57.480 --> 00:08:00.480 the war, right, you couldn't have imagined it would be 127 00:08:00.519 --> 00:08:03.480 in a situation, you know, in a year's time. If 128 00:08:03.519 --> 00:08:06.160 you said last year, where Iran would be freely able 129 00:08:06.199 --> 00:08:10.040 to tax global commerce going through the strait of hormones. 130 00:08:10.079 --> 00:08:12.720 But that's what this military action has led to is 131 00:08:12.720 --> 00:08:16.560 the creation of Iran as a great power. And Trump 132 00:08:16.759 --> 00:08:19.319 was surprisingly frank in that he said, yeah, we we 133 00:08:19.800 --> 00:08:23.160 you know, we're signing us because the alternative is we're 134 00:08:23.199 --> 00:08:25.000 going to run out a fewel in four weeks and 135 00:08:25.040 --> 00:08:29.360 there'd be an economic depression. So it was a remarkably 136 00:08:29.439 --> 00:08:32.840 frank moment, and it was kind of it was kind 137 00:08:32.840 --> 00:08:35.120 of surprisingly so because it felt like we're at the 138 00:08:35.120 --> 00:08:38.000 point where Trump's kind of ego and narcissism won't let 139 00:08:38.080 --> 00:08:41.279 him back down and kind of acknowledged failure here. But 140 00:08:42.720 --> 00:08:44.879 that's what it was starting to sound like. But then, 141 00:08:44.919 --> 00:08:46.799 of course, the the MoU collapse. 142 00:08:47.360 --> 00:08:51.159 Well, let's cast our minds back to about this time 143 00:08:51.279 --> 00:08:56.639 last year Twelve Day War launched by Israel. It seemed 144 00:08:56.679 --> 00:09:03.120 as though they were trying to degrade Iran's missile launching capability. 145 00:09:03.279 --> 00:09:05.480 It seemed it seemed as though at the time they 146 00:09:05.480 --> 00:09:07.240 had been quite successful in that they. 147 00:09:07.159 --> 00:09:09.399 Had already had huge successes. 148 00:09:08.840 --> 00:09:16.320 With taken out Nasrulla, the pager bombing operation. It seemed 149 00:09:16.320 --> 00:09:21.519 like they had stacked another w Trump sent the B 150 00:09:21.600 --> 00:09:25.919 two bombers said everything had been destroyed, called it a day, 151 00:09:26.200 --> 00:09:31.919 and frankly, I thought that would satisfy Netna Who's. 152 00:09:33.159 --> 00:09:33.600 Ambition. 153 00:09:35.320 --> 00:09:37.879 And then, you know, towards the end of last year, 154 00:09:38.759 --> 00:09:44.039 there was a blockade on Venezuela, there were the demands 155 00:09:44.120 --> 00:09:49.360 to take Greenland for the United States, and there was 156 00:09:49.480 --> 00:09:54.399 very much an air of an assertive American empire. Aggressive 157 00:09:54.440 --> 00:10:01.679 American empire again that common in Maduro being picked up 158 00:10:01.720 --> 00:10:08.120 by you know, American helicopter just flying into Caracas. You know, 159 00:10:08.240 --> 00:10:12.200 people were praising it as an incredible military operation. There 160 00:10:12.320 --> 00:10:15.320 was talk of Palenteer being able to shut down Antier 161 00:10:15.600 --> 00:10:20.799 and you know, doubtless bribing other officials. And then once 162 00:10:20.840 --> 00:10:24.840 they'd you know, done that, Iran came back into focus. 163 00:10:25.039 --> 00:10:29.080 The you know, Zionist news outlet started talking about, you know, 164 00:10:29.120 --> 00:10:32.679 all these protests in Iran and how unpopular the regime 165 00:10:32.879 --> 00:10:36.120 was and this was the moment to take it down. 166 00:10:36.240 --> 00:10:40.600 And Resa Pavlavi, he was doing you know, these podcasts. 167 00:10:42.159 --> 00:10:46.759 Even Patrick David said he'd been contacted to take over Iran, 168 00:10:49.159 --> 00:10:51.840 and Trump said, oh, you know, we want to make 169 00:10:51.879 --> 00:10:57.080 a deal, and we weren't sure, you know, how it 170 00:10:57.159 --> 00:11:01.080 was going to go down. You know, I bet on 171 00:11:01.120 --> 00:11:03.240 the IDOLO to survive on poly market. 172 00:11:03.279 --> 00:11:05.080 I didn't. I didn't think they were pull the trigger. 173 00:11:06.840 --> 00:11:09.879 And then on twenty eighth for February, it'd been blown 174 00:11:09.960 --> 00:11:13.840 up by about thirty bombs dropped on his presidential palace 175 00:11:13.960 --> 00:11:18.519 and bunker, including you know, these jade ams that can 176 00:11:18.879 --> 00:11:23.480 penetrate some of the deepest you know bunkers in existence. 177 00:11:23.639 --> 00:11:28.879 And yeah, then there was this expectation that, you know, 178 00:11:29.200 --> 00:11:32.600 Iranians were just going to march into the street and 179 00:11:33.519 --> 00:11:36.720 kill the IRGC or whatever and have this you know, 180 00:11:37.279 --> 00:11:42.679 democratic revolution, and I just never saw that happening. But yeah, 181 00:11:42.720 --> 00:11:44.600 what was your take around that time? 182 00:11:44.840 --> 00:11:48.159 Yeah, well, I do remember soon at the time, just 183 00:11:48.200 --> 00:11:51.720 based on how we've observed how Israel and the US 184 00:11:51.759 --> 00:11:55.120 have behaved, especially in the last two three years, saying 185 00:11:55.200 --> 00:11:56.720 that they're going to they'll do the war at the 186 00:11:56.720 --> 00:11:59.320 start of Purim, right, because they always seem to time 187 00:11:59.320 --> 00:12:02.320 it with these highly symbolic things. And yeah, when you know, 188 00:12:02.360 --> 00:12:05.440 it became the pure war of twenty twenty six. At 189 00:12:05.480 --> 00:12:07.480 the same time, I was still surprised. I didn't I 190 00:12:07.519 --> 00:12:12.440 didn't expect to see full scale war like this. For 191 00:12:12.559 --> 00:12:14.279 to drag US as long as it has. You know, 192 00:12:14.320 --> 00:12:18.559 Trump really did pull the trigger on it. I think 193 00:12:18.679 --> 00:12:22.000 one of the things that hasn't been discussed enough, it 194 00:12:22.080 --> 00:12:25.240 was reported at the time in in you know, mainstream 195 00:12:25.240 --> 00:12:31.000 media by fairly respectable outlets, is the negotiations that came 196 00:12:31.080 --> 00:12:34.360 to lead up to this because for a time, you know, 197 00:12:34.399 --> 00:12:36.240 and this is why I thought maybe we want the war. 198 00:12:36.320 --> 00:12:40.399 You know, there were there were positive sounds coming from 199 00:12:40.399 --> 00:12:43.080 the negotiations right advance at the time was saying a 200 00:12:43.120 --> 00:12:44.480 deal was just around the corner. 201 00:12:45.799 --> 00:12:46.639 I believe it was. 202 00:12:48.279 --> 00:12:52.919 A leader from Oman was one of the main delegates, 203 00:12:53.480 --> 00:12:56.200 and he was coming out saying that they were reaching 204 00:12:56.200 --> 00:12:59.600 a historic deal. This was about to be signed. Some 205 00:12:59.679 --> 00:13:03.120 interesting details came out since so of course Trump appointed 206 00:13:03.440 --> 00:13:07.759 Jared Kushner and Steve Whitcoff as head negotiators for the 207 00:13:07.879 --> 00:13:11.519 US but Jewish, of course. Witkoff is this guy with 208 00:13:11.559 --> 00:13:14.519 a background in real estate, and I remember he was 209 00:13:14.559 --> 00:13:16.480 one of the first appointments of Trump and he was 210 00:13:16.519 --> 00:13:20.440 meant this post that Trump created special Envoy to the 211 00:13:20.440 --> 00:13:24.559 Middle East. You remember thinking that's only going to go 212 00:13:24.600 --> 00:13:27.399 one way. And obviously we know about Kushner, but yeah, 213 00:13:27.440 --> 00:13:31.840 the reports that came out about the negotiations was that 214 00:13:31.879 --> 00:13:38.000 Witkoff and Kushner had no real knowledge of nuclear enrichment, 215 00:13:38.639 --> 00:13:40.879 nuclear weapons, any of the things required for US, that 216 00:13:40.879 --> 00:13:44.879 they didn't take advisors that would have been necessary for 217 00:13:44.919 --> 00:13:51.720 an understanding of this. Witkoff apparently had little to know 218 00:13:51.720 --> 00:13:55.440 knowledge of the previous agreements between Iran in the US 219 00:13:55.480 --> 00:13:58.399 and the history there of frameworks that have been established, 220 00:13:58.399 --> 00:14:01.600 and what the redlines were and so on. And worst 221 00:14:01.600 --> 00:14:08.399 of all, that they took Iran's demand to retain research 222 00:14:08.480 --> 00:14:11.240 facility in Tehran that was actually gifted to them by 223 00:14:11.399 --> 00:14:15.480 President Eisenhower in the fifties, and that is actually incapable 224 00:14:15.840 --> 00:14:20.639 of enriching uranium for weapons purposes, that actually can only 225 00:14:20.679 --> 00:14:25.399 be used as a research reactor, that Iran wanted to 226 00:14:25.639 --> 00:14:28.120 retain this as part of the deal that would have 227 00:14:28.200 --> 00:14:30.759 led to them given up their enriched uranium, and that 228 00:14:30.919 --> 00:14:35.240 Kushner and Witkoff mistakenly, as it was reported in these 229 00:14:35.240 --> 00:14:39.600 mainstream reports, but mistakenly read this as Iran said that 230 00:14:40.519 --> 00:14:42.279 it was an absolute demand that they were going to 231 00:14:42.279 --> 00:14:47.039 proceed with enriching uranium for weapons purposes. And Trump repeated 232 00:14:47.080 --> 00:14:49.200 this at the beginning of the war. He said that 233 00:14:49.480 --> 00:14:53.480 Whitcoff came back to him and said, essentially, the message 234 00:14:53.519 --> 00:14:56.200 from the meetings was that Iran was going to push 235 00:14:56.200 --> 00:15:02.320 ahead with a nuclear bomb again, you know, as far 236 00:15:02.320 --> 00:15:06.879 as people verify that, you know, vance again. Days prior 237 00:15:06.919 --> 00:15:09.240 to breaking down, it said, this has gone. Well, the 238 00:15:09.279 --> 00:15:12.519 other delegates, the neutral delegates that were there, none of 239 00:15:12.519 --> 00:15:16.440 them reported that Iran claimed this, that they were making 240 00:15:16.440 --> 00:15:18.679 this demand that we're going to go ahead with in Richmond. 241 00:15:19.799 --> 00:15:24.240 So it seems very clearly you can say misunderstanding by 242 00:15:24.600 --> 00:15:29.000 Witkoff and Jared Kushner. But either it's a profound misunderstanding 243 00:15:29.039 --> 00:15:31.399 and an ignorance and a failure of them to bring 244 00:15:31.440 --> 00:15:34.960 the necessary expertise and do the necessary research, which is 245 00:15:35.320 --> 00:15:41.159 just a you know, incredible profound incompetence, or it's it's 246 00:15:41.559 --> 00:15:46.799 it's treason, right, it's it's unintentionally misleading Trump and the 247 00:15:46.799 --> 00:15:50.480 American public to to force this war. But you know, 248 00:15:50.519 --> 00:15:52.559 that to me is incredible, And like I said, it 249 00:15:52.840 --> 00:15:55.159 doesn't seem like that's that's really been discussed a whole 250 00:15:55.240 --> 00:15:57.240 lot since then. But I mean, you know, think of 251 00:15:57.279 --> 00:15:58.399 the implications of that. 252 00:15:59.519 --> 00:16:03.720 Well, yeah, I mean, Kushna let's remind people. I'm sure 253 00:16:03.720 --> 00:16:09.320 they know is Trump's son in law, and Kushna and Netanya, 254 00:16:09.440 --> 00:16:14.120 who sleep at each other's houses, have an incredibly close relationship. 255 00:16:15.519 --> 00:16:19.840 So it's it seems as though Israel can call the 256 00:16:19.879 --> 00:16:26.039 shots directly using American delegates. But you know, in that 257 00:16:26.159 --> 00:16:32.879 period leading up, people thought that the American administration would 258 00:16:32.919 --> 00:16:39.600 see sense and be able to reject this path. But 259 00:16:39.919 --> 00:16:46.159 you know, Trump sacked various generals and you know, even 260 00:16:46.200 --> 00:16:50.519 the likes of Hillary Clinton and people, you know, senior 261 00:16:50.759 --> 00:16:55.120 politicians said this was a terrible idea. You know, every 262 00:16:55.840 --> 00:16:59.879 geopolitical strategist basically agreed the same thing, that you can't 263 00:17:00.080 --> 00:17:05.359 just take down an Iran that's been preparing for, you know, 264 00:17:05.440 --> 00:17:08.400 this kind of event for decades and had built their 265 00:17:08.559 --> 00:17:15.920 entire defense architecture with cheap drones, ballistic missiles and the 266 00:17:16.119 --> 00:17:21.279 likely help of Russia given the pressure they run that 267 00:17:21.400 --> 00:17:25.759 and the alliances that have been been made. So yeah, 268 00:17:25.880 --> 00:17:31.000 once again the little set and calling the shots. 269 00:17:31.240 --> 00:17:32.079 Yeah. 270 00:17:32.240 --> 00:17:35.359 I think once the MU was signed, I think people 271 00:17:35.400 --> 00:17:38.920 probably expected it to last a bit longer than it 272 00:17:38.960 --> 00:17:41.839 seemed like. We were pretty quickly back to we'd been 273 00:17:41.920 --> 00:17:46.519 raped forward. What do you attribute that to as far 274 00:17:46.559 --> 00:17:50.079 as the main cause of the breakdown, I mean, obviously 275 00:17:50.160 --> 00:17:54.640 there are two sides with objectives that there's obviously no 276 00:17:54.680 --> 00:17:56.640 way of resolving them. I mean, this is going to 277 00:17:56.680 --> 00:17:58.359 go one way or the other. It seems clear it's 278 00:17:58.400 --> 00:18:01.599 going to turn into a U strategic defeat and they're 279 00:18:01.599 --> 00:18:05.279 basically prolonged and the inevitable. But why the breakdown of 280 00:18:05.319 --> 00:18:07.599 the initial m or you Well. 281 00:18:08.400 --> 00:18:11.079 It seems very clear to me that the main issue 282 00:18:11.079 --> 00:18:16.559 of disagreement was Hesbelah. And you know, all throughout this campaign, 283 00:18:17.079 --> 00:18:21.480 Netanyahu was literally appealing to the Israelis saying, I have 284 00:18:21.640 --> 00:18:27.839 made us a regional power. You know, Israeli stock market's 285 00:18:27.880 --> 00:18:32.880 been rocketing all these victories they had, and you know, 286 00:18:33.119 --> 00:18:38.680 Natanyahu's got an important election for him personally in October 287 00:18:39.559 --> 00:18:43.039 because he's also under investigation, so he seems to be 288 00:18:43.119 --> 00:18:45.680 able to avoid his legal problems whilst he's at the 289 00:18:45.680 --> 00:18:50.160 HELM and the way he'll be marketing his election campaign 290 00:18:50.440 --> 00:18:56.559 is making Israel the hegemon of the region. And you know, 291 00:18:56.799 --> 00:19:01.759 using America to fight their wars was you know, part 292 00:19:01.799 --> 00:19:06.519 of that strategy. So I never expected the m I 293 00:19:06.640 --> 00:19:10.799 U to hold I think what Israel broke the terms 294 00:19:10.839 --> 00:19:14.480 on like day one, and the Iranians were saying, you 295 00:19:14.519 --> 00:19:15.599 know what, what's this? 296 00:19:15.799 --> 00:19:18.160 We this this was part of the agreement. And then 297 00:19:18.759 --> 00:19:19.559 there was this big. 298 00:19:19.400 --> 00:19:23.759 Dispute over whether Lebanon was included. And then Trump said 299 00:19:23.759 --> 00:19:25.759 he was going to demand that Israel stop while they 300 00:19:25.759 --> 00:19:30.160 figured this out. And yeah, it very quickly deteriorated. One 301 00:19:30.160 --> 00:19:34.720 of the interesting reports was that like as far as 302 00:19:34.759 --> 00:19:37.599 kind of what concretely ended it was when they stopped 303 00:19:37.599 --> 00:19:41.359 the hormones traffic again, one of the reports was that 304 00:19:41.359 --> 00:19:46.480 that was an IRGC led thing, somewhat against the wishes 305 00:19:46.720 --> 00:19:49.799 of the Uranian government, and it kind of suggests that, 306 00:19:51.519 --> 00:19:55.440 you know, the RGC itself maybe has sway over the 307 00:19:55.440 --> 00:20:00.359 direction of Iranda didn't before. And obviously, the the idea 308 00:20:00.640 --> 00:20:04.279 of doing these decapitation strikes was, you know, take out 309 00:20:04.319 --> 00:20:08.920 these hardline is the most militant leaders. Something somewhere is 310 00:20:08.960 --> 00:20:12.240 going to emerge, right, just organically, of course, because every 311 00:20:12.240 --> 00:20:14.440 country wants to be a liberal democracy, there will be 312 00:20:14.440 --> 00:20:20.119 some moderate opposition somewhere, you know, totally totally ridiculous idea 313 00:20:20.119 --> 00:20:23.799 of Iran. But it actually seems like what may have 314 00:20:23.799 --> 00:20:27.160 happened is they may have brought in more hardline figures, 315 00:20:27.920 --> 00:20:30.640 and I mean, you know, you can even just think concretely, 316 00:20:30.720 --> 00:20:32.680 I mean, some of the people that are there now, 317 00:20:32.720 --> 00:20:38.240 they've had multiple family members, colleagues killed in these strikes. 318 00:20:38.400 --> 00:20:42.319 I think, you know, the equivalent of like a third 319 00:20:42.400 --> 00:20:45.599 of you know, their National Congress has been killed in 320 00:20:45.599 --> 00:20:50.200 this most of their senior military leaders, Supreme Leader obviously, 321 00:20:51.920 --> 00:20:54.200 but there was no reason to expect that whoever was 322 00:20:54.240 --> 00:20:56.799 going to be replacing them was going to be more moderate. 323 00:20:56.839 --> 00:20:59.759 I mean, you know, you look at the previous Supreme Leader. 324 00:20:59.759 --> 00:21:03.000 I mean, you know that whole group, like these are 325 00:21:03.039 --> 00:21:05.200 boomers that have been at the Helm for a long time, 326 00:21:05.240 --> 00:21:08.200 and as great as the cultural differences are and so on, 327 00:21:08.240 --> 00:21:11.720 they're still boomers, right. But it seems like the younger 328 00:21:11.759 --> 00:21:14.039 types far from being reformers. I mean, they've grown up 329 00:21:14.119 --> 00:21:17.160 in this state of conflict with the US and Israel, 330 00:21:18.559 --> 00:21:25.319 they've experienced these aggressive wars from outside. They've probably moved 331 00:21:25.519 --> 00:21:30.720 more away from the kind of Islamic fundamentalism that originally 332 00:21:30.799 --> 00:21:33.680 came with the Islamic Revolution in Iran and moved more 333 00:21:33.759 --> 00:21:38.480 towards a kind of Iranian nationalism. Part of that is 334 00:21:38.599 --> 00:21:41.920 just you know, the forces of modernity kind of undermining 335 00:21:42.960 --> 00:21:44.880 that generally. But then also a lot of these people 336 00:21:44.880 --> 00:21:47.039 are coming through a military milieu, and like I said, 337 00:21:47.039 --> 00:21:51.200 they have this constant specter of the US and Israel 338 00:21:51.279 --> 00:21:55.480 trying to undermine their influence in the region. And at 339 00:21:55.480 --> 00:21:58.359 the same time, one of the reasons Iran Dian collapsed 340 00:21:58.359 --> 00:22:00.440 from the strikes is it turned out they had a 341 00:22:00.559 --> 00:22:05.119 very decentralized command structure where even as US strikes did, 342 00:22:05.119 --> 00:22:07.480 they could take at multiple layer after layer after layer 343 00:22:07.559 --> 00:22:11.359 of commanders in the RGC and the military, and the 344 00:22:11.640 --> 00:22:17.279 strikes from Iran continued on about it. It had virtually no impact, 345 00:22:17.359 --> 00:22:19.680 and the US was increasingly baffled by this and as 346 00:22:19.720 --> 00:22:23.400 it hit military sites and missile installations and so on, 347 00:22:23.440 --> 00:22:25.799 but it didn't seem to have any effect on Uranian 348 00:22:25.839 --> 00:22:28.759 launch capability. And part of that is because Iran has 349 00:22:28.799 --> 00:22:30.640 been prepared for this so long that they've made it 350 00:22:30.680 --> 00:22:35.799 extremely decentralized. The decentralized cells that can basically operate the 351 00:22:35.880 --> 00:22:40.680 military in one region or province outside of any supreme command, 352 00:22:40.680 --> 00:22:44.160 even if that goes dark, and that makes it very 353 00:22:44.200 --> 00:22:47.400 difficult one for the US to deal with and to 354 00:22:47.640 --> 00:22:51.400 take out by striking centralized targets. But then two, in 355 00:22:51.440 --> 00:22:55.720 a case like this with Harmuz, where you know the 356 00:22:55.839 --> 00:22:58.640 RGC can say, well, you know, we're taking the initiative 357 00:22:58.680 --> 00:23:02.119 and kind of exercise and video bur on this that 358 00:23:02.160 --> 00:23:04.160 it may actually make it harder to get a deal 359 00:23:04.200 --> 00:23:05.279 with Iran in the future. 360 00:23:06.039 --> 00:23:08.799 I'm sure part of it is a theory of mind failure, 361 00:23:08.880 --> 00:23:15.480 where Westerners assume that, you know, the citizens of another 362 00:23:15.519 --> 00:23:18.880 place will think exactly like them and want liberal democracy. 363 00:23:19.200 --> 00:23:23.119 And you know, Iran is not the most religious place, 364 00:23:23.200 --> 00:23:27.559 particularly in the urban centers. But they did kill the 365 00:23:27.599 --> 00:23:34.599 Ayatollah and why and his granddaughter, you know, various lines 366 00:23:34.599 --> 00:23:39.799 of his family during Ramadan three years before Purim, so 367 00:23:41.160 --> 00:23:43.559 you know there is a religious significance to that. And 368 00:23:43.599 --> 00:23:48.720 I'm sure the hoofies and the militias that operate in 369 00:23:48.759 --> 00:23:54.799 Iraq are probably more on the religious side, certainly Hesbala 370 00:23:54.920 --> 00:23:59.799 as well, because you know they were originally recruited because 371 00:24:00.119 --> 00:24:04.319 where she is, you know, in the south of Lebanon 372 00:24:04.319 --> 00:24:06.240 that have lived there for a very long time. 373 00:24:06.480 --> 00:24:11.240 The majority of Iranians do support the Islamic Republic. Like 374 00:24:11.759 --> 00:24:14.000 there haven't been a lot of studies on that. Obviously, 375 00:24:14.039 --> 00:24:15.359 it's it's somewhat difficult. 376 00:24:15.440 --> 00:24:15.599 You know. 377 00:24:15.599 --> 00:24:17.279 You can say, well, if you ask anyone in Iran, 378 00:24:17.279 --> 00:24:19.480 they're going to they support the regime. Right, But there 379 00:24:19.480 --> 00:24:23.920 have been some at least one major study that I 380 00:24:24.000 --> 00:24:26.880 know of that that attempted to get at this neutral 381 00:24:26.960 --> 00:24:29.200 and was not seen as part to them one way 382 00:24:29.279 --> 00:24:33.039 or the other. But it did find based on poll 383 00:24:33.079 --> 00:24:36.759 in thousands of Iranians that support for like the Islamic 384 00:24:36.799 --> 00:24:39.200 Republic itself as an idea as the form of government 385 00:24:39.200 --> 00:24:43.160 Igran is eighty to ninety percent, right, So maybe people 386 00:24:43.200 --> 00:24:45.440 have problems with individual leaders. 387 00:24:46.000 --> 00:24:46.160 Right. 388 00:24:46.200 --> 00:24:49.839 There were protests in Iran. There wasn't a response and 389 00:24:49.920 --> 00:24:52.920 that killed forty thousand people. But there were protests mostly 390 00:24:52.960 --> 00:24:55.160 over economic frustrations and inflation. 391 00:24:55.359 --> 00:24:55.519 Right. 392 00:24:56.079 --> 00:24:58.519 But as far as you know, the people that want 393 00:24:58.599 --> 00:25:03.799 to over traw the Islamic Republic and have you know, 394 00:25:03.880 --> 00:25:06.839 a liberal democracy and change the flag and so on, 395 00:25:06.880 --> 00:25:10.079 it's probably under fifteen or ten percent in Iran. 396 00:25:11.200 --> 00:25:14.839 I didn't know it was the support was that high, 397 00:25:14.960 --> 00:25:19.960 but I definitely knew the West was exaggerating the unpopularity 398 00:25:20.000 --> 00:25:24.279 of the regime, which you know, I think it is 399 00:25:24.359 --> 00:25:30.119 interesting that a platonic state emerged out of Western imperialism, 400 00:25:31.039 --> 00:25:35.400 you know, fifty years ago, and now they're able to 401 00:25:36.799 --> 00:25:42.720