Speaker 1: And you are live.
Speaker 2: My friend. Welcome to the best sports betting show on
the planet. This is Wager Talk Today. I am your host,
Andy Lang. It is Monday Countdown. NFL Week one is
officially here. We're gonna get you ready for some opening lines.
Bill Belichick makes his college football debut. We're gonna cover that.
We're gonna add some MLB and this show we're gonna
set the tone for the entire week moving forward. Mondays
and Fridays very very important to watch. We're gonna take
a look at all the opening lines for NFL and
college football Mondays and then Fridays Football Friday. We're gonna
get you ready for the weekend. So these two shows
really really important. That's why you subscribe to the channel.
Get notified when these shows go live, when the breakdown
videos come up. So let's get it started. We got
Gianni coming up with the Steam Report. Crack Man's gonna
join us. We're gonna get everyone's thoughts on college football
on NFL. Crack is gonna give us an MLB prop
and Brian Power is gonna join us. He's gonna break
down the college football game tonight between TCU North Carolina
and we're gonna talk Ranger and the Diamondbacks. Let's get
us started, Johnny, busy, busy weekend, Happy Monday. How are you,
my friend? It's always a good day when I see
you and me one two on the last seven days.
So obviously you and I Bakrolls are looking good. How
was your weekend?
Speaker 3: Never better? Bro? I expected, honestly, this NFL and college
football season to be the best I've had in a while,
and so far they're living up the expectations. Over thirty
units of profit already in college football, sixty percent on
over fifty plus bets, and over thirty percent ROI, so
everything is lining up nicely. I've already released two college
football bets for next week, including a five percent best bet,
trying to get out ahead of the market. We do
have a college football for tonight MLB four tonight. So
excited for the next couple months Man September, October, November,
December some of the best months to get down and
I'm really excited for whats ahead?
Speaker 1: Brother?
Speaker 2: Can I just throw out myself? I had a bad
college football US Open Tennis crushed, absolutely crushed. Don't forget
about these sports guys. There are way way too many
sports that you could be profiting off just to focus
on one. We're going to talk mostly football, but do
not leave out some of these other sports, like we
have lacrosse playoffs today that people don't even really realize
that there's really soft lines in some of these sports.
So don't forget about these other sports. But Jianny, let's
talk about college football if we can take a look
at some of the lines. But actually, before we do that,
takeaways from the first week of college football. I feel
like the books probably did really really well across the board.
I feel like they probably did good. But what did
you notice from week.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's hard not to do good when
the majority of your betters are betting in the closing lines.
You know, again, there's some of the tightest numbers you
could bet into, and that's what a lot of recreational
petters are forced to do in week one. You know,
those lines have been up a perfect example tonight's game TCU.
TCU was getting two points in July. In May, forgive me,
they were minus one and a half points. In June.
They were minus two and a half points late June.
They were minus three in July they were minus three
and a half in August. They're minus four right now
September first. So if you like TCU, there's absolutely no
reason you should have been sitting on your hands over
the last four months. You absolutely had opportunities to place
a good bet with a ton of closing line value.
That's no longer the case unless you think this TCU
line is going to close at minus six. You can
only play this one way, and that's dog or pass.
If you don't like the dog, it's time to wait
for a better spot to get your money in, because
you know you're not getting it in good when you
could have got plus two and now you're laying minus four.
In fact, you could have got minus one and a half,
minus two, minus two and a half, Like, why would
you wait until minus four? Why would minus four now
make TCU a good bet? So again, when lines have
been bet into like that, it makes it kind of
easy if you're betting for profit, because if you're betting
for profit, you're not going to turn a profit betting
in the closing numbers. It's just not going to happen.
So you're right. Books had a good Saturday, They've had
a good season, so far. It'll be a little different
going into Week two because this is the overreaction week,
and I think betters can take advantage of those overreactions.
We have about sixty minutes of football played so far
for ninety five percent of these teams, ninety nine percent
of these teams, and yet we have six days to
talk about that sixty minutes, and I think it's paralysis
by analysis. It'll be a lot of analysis of those
sixty minutes, and I think a lot of conclusions that
will be drawn that are biased, and you could take
advantage of that bias. In Week two. It's one of
my favorite weeks to bet, as you can see, like
I said, already fired two Week two college football bets
because I do think it's that week where you could
take advantage of the overreaction. Again, like I said, TCU,
obviously they've gotten the money, but today it's good two
way action. Like if you're booking it today, it's a
great day to book it because it's split right down
the middle as far as risk goes, as far as
ticket count goes. But the early Sharp money was all
on TCU. The earlier Sharp money also went under. The
opener was at fifty nine stayed there until it finally
got bet under. It went quickly to fifty eight and
a half, from fifty and a half to fifty six
and a half, and still went under a little more.
So now it's another case of do you like the
over or pass, because you're now getting what three and
a half four points worse than you could have got
a little earlier. So a game like this makes it
easy for betters if you're trying to profit and you're
not just betting for action, it's either dog and over
or let it go. There's a lot better games. There's
even two CFL games tonight, I released a four percent
two subscribers in the CFL. Like Andy said, don't overlook
those other markets. There's going to be a lot more
any fishencies when there's less like top level traders in
that market. And right now they're all in college football.
They're all looking at NFL and then memob everything else
comes after that. And that's why you could really find
some value in those smaller markets.
Speaker 2: Well, let's take a look at college football. Let's take
a look at some of these lines here. I mean,
to me, the funniest one is we have a spread
that looks like a total I mean, Texas Tech is
my mind is forty eight and a half. I even
see a minus forty nine. What's funny is they're taking money.
It looks like, what are some of the line moves
that we need to be paying attention to here so far?
Speaker 3: And here's the funny thing about that Texas Tech game.
Here's a lesson for sports betters out there. Okay, this
is my argument against parlays being profitable. If I walk
into a strict casino right now with five hundred dollars
and I say I want to parlay Texas Tech with
the you know what, they're gonna tell me you can't
do it. We will not book that parlay. And you
know why, because it's correlated. And when it's correlated, the
books no longer believe that they have that huge edge
on you. Because for Texas Tech to cover that forty nine,
it's highly probable it's gonna go over fifty nine. For
them to cover the forty nine, the probability of it
going over fifty nine are really high. So the side
and the total are correlated. When a correlated opportunity exists,
the sportsbook will not allow you to parlay. They will
let you parlay Texas Tech with an entirely other game
because the outcome of Texas Tech and the other game
have nothing to do with each other. But the outcome
with Texas Tech cover and that spread and the over
under definitely have something to do with the other. If
they cover that big point spread, they're probably gonna go
over as well. And when that's the case, they will
not let you place that bet. So that tells you
why they want you parlay in unless it's correlated. So
Texas Tech is a perfect example of that. Glad we
brought that game up, and that line's climbing, Texas Tech
is getting more money and the total something down. So
in other words, you need the run and bet Kent
State team total under under because I don't think Kent
State's going to put up many points at all, at
least they couldn't.
Speaker 2: They barely they barely scoring against Merrimack. There you go, So,
all right, what are some other games that we've seen
some move? When I saw Navy, I saw that line
moved a little bit. What are some other ones?
Speaker 3: Maryland, Maryland? In fact, I tried to get down on
Maryland for my subscribers. I was trying to get down
at seventeen or better. We laid minus sixteen and a half,
and I, like Maryland, I was actually leaning that way,
so I figured I could give him out at seventeen
because I figured if we cashed the sixteen and a half,
worst happens. Subscribers laying the seventeen is a push. I
wouldn't put out seventeen and a half if they laid seventeen,
because they could push and we could lose. But in
that case, I was looking in the seventeenth, but they weren't.
Just there was like one book at minus seventeen minus
one fifteen, and I say, if I send that out,
that's not fair to subscribe us, because there's no way
they're going to get seventeen. They're all going to be
looking at eighteens, eighteen and a half maybe, And I
think that's what's happened there. So Maryland got hit. Another
one that got hit was Toledo. Toledo. That's why you'll
be looking at Toledo minus seven really soon. We laid
Toledo minus five and a half. We laid Toledo minus
six and six and a half as well, So Toledo
got steamed, and yeah, the college football they're wasting no
time with it at all. Wow. Good games, good man,
I'm excited.
Speaker 1: Man.
Speaker 3: Weak one NFL next week? Wow, good week.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I see Michigan State's moving that it may go
to three and a half. So there's a key number
for you as well. Let's take a look at NFL.
I mean, these NFL lines. I don't know what all
we can do with them at this point because this
is the week where obviously these lines have been out,
you know, forever, but any anything, we need to be
keeping our eye on here.
Speaker 3: I think you need to be conscious of the line
move of the opening number, but I think you then
have to play the game from August one, meaning that
that early initial moves that you see back in May
or June, you can't pay too too much attention to
them because you got to remember, the limits were really small.
They didn't book a ton of money. So even though
some of those lines might have moved two or three points,
it wasn't a lot of money booked on those It's
not until you see multiple books put out a number
and they're all booking at that number that I think
you should start paying attention from that point on, and
luckily you go to the odds logic screen that'll tell
you when that line came out, when it moved. You
could even do it with the wager talk three odds
just so you could see when did the major books
actually post the number and what number did they post
that game at? And then I think you play it
from there, because again some books try to get out
ahead and entice action and get a publicity from offering
Week one NFL early in the summer. But remember they're
not taking big bets on it. They're taking maybe a nickel.
So for you know, two or three limit bets, you
can move an NFL game a point point and a
half two points, which isn't going to happen during the
regular season. And you see a lot of these movement
Like I'll tell you right now, I don't think this
is going to change. The signs that are the most
one sided right now, and it's already building more and
more exposure is where they go. The Green Bay Packers. Yea,
there's so much Packer exposure already, and against a tough
team like the Lions, I'm a little bit surprised to
see such one sided action on the Green Bay Packers.
I think you'll see some takers on Detroit at three.
Another game that's all one sided was the Cardinals, where
they're continuing the bet the Cardinals regardless of the number.
I think it's a fade of New Orleans more than
the bet on Arizona, because maybe the early money from
the Sharps was a bet on Arizona. But I think
the recreational betters that are steaming it now it's all
just a fate of the New Orleans Saints because again
they're laying a very very very late number. And then
it shows in the line a sharp sign that the
wise guys fell in love with that was the Raiders.
For some reason, they fell in love with that Raiders
week one against the Patriots, and that just continued to
take money all the way down to like through that
key number of three.
Speaker 1: I think.
Speaker 3: So it'll be interesting to see if anything changes leading
up to the week, but I don't think so. I
think teams like the Steelers are going to be a
big risk for the book. Teams like the Packers are
going to be a big risk for the book. The
Bengals are going to be a big risk for the book,
usual suspects, usual suspects. But finally Thursday, real quick, the
first game of the year, Dallas Eagles. You're getting Egle money,
No surprise, That's why it's asked that T seven. So
far it's all Eagles. Uh. Interested to see if Dallas
money comes in as we approach Thursday.
Speaker 2: Well, I will happily be on the side of the books.
Just just let me uh, let me, let me be
where the books would it would be, and I'll be
happy there. Let's see, uh, Titans oncenow. Do we have
anything on Oklahoma Michigan. You see money has come in
on on one side. What are you seeing on your end?
Speaker 3: Oklahoma Michigan? What a game?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Big, we too. Nothing nothing really sticking out so far.
Just dog money from the public, just dog money from
the public, which is you know you get that many
points with Michigan. I'm not really surprised, not really surprised.
I'm interested to see if I see any of the
Oklahoma in the accounts. I liked Oklahoma myself early. I
thought anything less than a touchdown, I'd be on the
Oklahoma side, But I didn't fire. Still waiting a little bit,
see what happened.
Speaker 2: Like it, like it, and uh, question, what's the attraction
to the Raiders. I mean, uh, I wish I knew.
Speaker 3: I wish I knew.
Speaker 2: I I will tell you my opinion is that they've
had an incredible like training camp. The coaching upgrade is.
Speaker 3: Matt Ryl coming to town, the city.
Speaker 2: Big coaching City's quarterback upgrade.
Speaker 3: I I running upgrade.
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, okay, so we pretty much said they upgraded everything.
That's probably why there's attraction to the much worse truth
truth before we let you go. You're doing a contender
series tomorrow, correct.
Speaker 3: Yep, yeah, contended tomorrow. I gotta work on that tonight
because we'll have bet on it on Wednesday. So I
have bet on it Wednesday. I won't be able to,
you know, do any of the work Tuesday because I'm
at Apex all day. I'm so I'm gonna do college
football and NFL work tonight, Contender series work tonight, And
like I said, I have a four percent in the CFL.
A package will be probably when in the next thirty minutes.
Baseball package is going up today. I love Labor Day baseball.
A lot of day games people are off, so it's
a little different market with only one college football game
late tonight, so baseball package will be up as well.
And Week two college football already release plays, so that
package will be up also. And yeah, best of luck
this week. NFL Week one Sunday, don't forget steam Room
will be leading up into kickoff on Sunday. We'll go
over each and every NFL game and give out those
bonus teasers as well. Best of luck to everyone this week.
Speaker 2: Before I let you go, I'm just calling it right now.
Theo Haig's gonna beat Michael Old to say, Chick's brother
minus three, minus three forty five is going to go down.
That's my big call for Contender series.
Speaker 4: I like this week.
Speaker 2: So we'll see.
Speaker 3: How many favorites lately, too many favorites.
Speaker 2: We we talked about you on our live show. We
were like, oh, Gianni is going to be loving the
dogs next week. That's way favorites. Yes, yeah, yeah, I
got theo Haig. So have funny Tender series. We'll be
thinking of you. Have a great week, and thanks again, Johnny,
thank you for Let's just keep momentum going here. Let's
bring in crack Man. Let's bring in Crackman. And get
his thoughts on NFL College Football bill right out of
the gate college football. What was your takeaway from the
from the week?
Speaker 1: Yeah, hey guys, Uh enjoyed a really good weekend of
college football. I say weekend. It was Thursday, Friday, Saturday.
And uh, you know some of these games to start
the season, good defensive grind out type of games. Ohio State, Texas.
You know, not that that was a good game, but
it was just a defensive grindout game. LSU, Clemson, Uh,
Notre Dame Miami yesterday. I was lucky enough to have Miami.
I thought I was gonna blow it at the end there,
but grinded it out, like I said. And and you
know when you watch these games, all these TV games,
people have to realize too. And this goes for everything.
This goes for the this weekend's NFL on Thursday night,
Friday night, Saturday games that are marquee games, primetime games,
Sunday night football, Monday night football. You don't have to
have a bet on each game.
Speaker 2: So I was.
Speaker 1: I did my Fox show yesterday. I was talking to
some people after the show and they were just so
pumped at at the Eagles game. They were like wo
are like an Eagles game, like it's the first primetime
major game. And it's so hard to talk people off
games and what I mean by you don't have to
have a side or a total on every game. However,
I'm probably gonna have NFL props on every single primetime
game because there's so much market for NFL props, even
for the regular games Sunday Sunday games. There's these sportsbooks
now that are you know, I shouldn't say neude to
the country no more. It's eight years the Fandels, DraftKings, Caesars,
bet on gms. They have props on every single game.
Even over here in Vegas circa Westgate, they have props up,
a whole slew of props. So I love betting those
NFL props. But uh, I just wanted people to know that,
you know, I know it's hard though, it's very very
hard to not have a bet on every game. Everyone
thinks they have to have a bet on the side. Well,
it's the most efficient market out there as NFL, especially
these week one lines that have been that have been
hanging for months and months. So you know, we listen,
I'm telling you I'm going to bet I have NFL
side circles and like like to give you one of them.
I wasn't planning to do this, but here's a here's
a I just missed. I almost sent it out to
Cleveland plus six this weekend. I like Cleveland plus six,
so that's gonna be one of my one of my
plays if it comes back. Now it's not five and
a half right now, so it's a pass, that's right,
even though it's just half a point, it's a pass
if there's not widely available sixes. Now, I do see.
Let me see andy, if I minimize this a pull
up my Odds Logic screen, can I can you guys see.
Speaker 2: Me home on No, that's fine, we can. We can
put my beautiful Yeah, we'll put my beautiful face on
on on screen. There bill that way and the ratings
go up. I'm kidding.
Speaker 1: I didn't know if it when I have when I
look at Odds Logic, if I when I minimize the screen,
yes see, I have one two sixes, but they're they're
not even here in town, so it's not fair. I
would never give them out with people. All right, I'm back.
I wanted to check the odd Logic screen so anyway,
I will have some sides. I have about four or
five circles that I think are are actually okay to
play and and like, like Giohnny said it that if
everyone loves green Bay right now, oh my god, green Bay,
Green Bay, Green Bay. Oh my god, they got they
got Parsons, this is gonna be a great team. Well, uh,
Detroit has one of the toughest schedules. But yeah, if
I can find a plus three minus twenty or less,
I'll be on Detroit also. So I just wanted to
give some logic there to the people and make sure
you know it's a long, hard fort season. Don't get
just fire and listen. I try to talk about so
much stuff because of the human condition. And guess where
I get that from me being a kid growing up
back in New York and New Jersey. I know what
it is to have to gamble, growing up in gambling
family gamble and atmosphere. You know these places that Philly,
New York, Detroit, you know, you know all these places,
these are right at passages that we just gambled since
we're little kids. I was gambled ains I was eight
nine years old. So I'm just trying to teach people
off my losing that's right, losing my losing playbook when
I was fourteen, fifteen, sixteen seventeen, fire and aimlessly not
knowing anything on football, getting myself jammed up in trouble
betting because the games are on TV. It's so much
easier to do it now with all these apps, and
I just wanted to, you know, tell the people out
there be a little more responsible. It's a long, hard
fought season. You don't have to bet live and fire
live on everything. That's the biggest form of closet gambling.
So you catch yourself betting live one or two bets
was your goal four or five sixty seven? And you're like,
oh my god, I can't believe I'm betting all this
live wagering. Guess what, you're laying double the juice people.
You're not laying one ten on both sides. You're laying
one fifteen or even one twenty on both sides. And
you know, I'm not saying live wagering can't be beat.
Trust me. It absolutely can be beat if you do
it from a smart sense. And what I'm saying is
the slower moving apps or sportsbooks compared to the faster
moving apps and sports books. It can be beat. But
just know that you're on like a ten to fifteen
second delay with the frequency from the stadium to the
even screen. Now another twenty you may be at a
sixty second delay. Sometimes betting live that you're watching on
your TV screen, Depending on what market you're in and
what service you're using, just know that bet during the commercials,
don't bet when they're on the field, because there's no
other way to tell you this. Yes, some of the
sites are cheating. That's right, you're cheating. No, it's hard
to believe. I knew a guy here that worked for
all the companies, and he didn't know anything any better.
He didn't think he was cheating. You know, green Bay
playing Detroit. Green Bay's going in on the five yard line.
They scored a touchdown, and people that are betting green
Bay live get denied. People that better Detroit they take
their bet. It's unbelievable. Now, this was this really happened here.
Matter of fact, the company was fined thirty six million
dollars buying Nevada Gaming altogether for things like this. So
trust me, especially if you're playing with far off places
and stuff listen, trust me, do not bet when you're
watching the game. Bet during commercials only.
Speaker 5: All right?
Speaker 1: I went off on rants and I wasn't even planning
to know.
Speaker 2: You're we talk about this, we repeat ourselves, but it's
too important. UFC is the same way you bet in
between rounds. It's you bet in between fights and you're like,
why did the line drop? And then one minute later
a guy gets clocked and because you're forty five seconds behind, good.
Speaker 1: UFC, it's gotta be terrible too. They're in the grappling
and fighting and you can't bet live. I don't even
bet UFC really hardly, but just hearing that, I'm sure
that Andy, you've been involved in situations like this.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, you said you had Miami. I watched that
Miami Notre Dame game. I gotta tell you. My big
takeaway was, I think Notre Dame is gonna be really good.
Both teams were good, but I thought Notre Dame really
figured it out in the second half. I think they're
a bet on. I mean, I don't know if that's
that hot of a take, but I was. I was
pretty impressed with them. What was your take on that game?
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, both teams were I gotta tell you what
a comeback? What a comeback? Well, you know there a
little bit and I thought it was. I watched the
first half. I actually went out to one of our
local casinos here for the second half and I watched.
I actually did watch the rest of the game, and yeah, no,
they're gonna be a They're gonna be a tough team.
And I actually bet them, but that was I bet
them on a future here that was at well the
westkeat they hung like a twenty to one on which
I thought was I seen him like ten to one,
twelve to one, and that this first game will hurt
them and that, but you know they're gonna be grinding
all year, so we'll see what happens. But yeah, they're
they're They're definitely a tough team, definitely. But Miami showed
a little heart there coming back at the again with
that long field goal after blowing the lead too. So yeah,
I'm happy happy they did it. You know, I had
three points, went down to two and a half everywhere,
and then you know you just start feeling when they're
collapsing there, like, oh but there's no way I can
win this. You think you know only because you know
you're on the good side. The momentum on the field
was really going th to Dame's way and then they
luckily got the wind though, so we got the win
for the wagers. Tald guys happy, did you did you?
Speaker 2: Did you see Lee Corso? Uh?
Speaker 3: Did you see?
Speaker 2: He made his six picks on the show and he
hit all six of them? It would have paid ninety
one to one. I saw a couple of people actually
bet them on on on Twitter and social media. Wow,
they spray, they sprinkled. Yeah, because it was this very
last show and some people are like a a league
courso let's fire away, So shout out to show.
Speaker 1: But yeah again, we're gonna go through an area where
I have to talk about risk being responsible. I listen,
even my friends, even my guys so that I know
that I grew up with for years Andy, they love
betting parlays. They can't get off this parlay train, and
I try to. I waved a white towel man, I said, listen,
if you're going to bet one hundred dollars on a
game again, do you want to bet five or ten
dollars on your five team or go ahead? I but
listen to sportsbooks make sixty percent of their profits from
parlay betters. But I get it. It's fun. It's fun
to turn. You know, right now there's a lottery crazy,
it's all over a billion. I don't know where you live,
they don't have it here, but everyone's going to the
border because the lottery is over a billion dollars. Like,
you know, it's such a long shot, but you know,
I have no problem, even me. My neighbor was like, hey,
I'm gonna go to the border. Do you want any tickets?
I said, yeah, here's ten bucks. You know, like fine, again,
I have no problem betting the long shot for a
sawbuck or something small. But just don't go crazy and
oh let me bet two hundred dollars on a parlay.
Hunting for your average bet should not be on a parlay.
You want to bet it, you bet it for a
little bit of money and have some fun. But you
see when Lee Corso hit six out of six, everyone said,
this is easy. Look what happened.
Speaker 2: I don't know why how they stay in business. I
don't know how sports, but it's like.
Speaker 1: Us when we first anyone that's on this show today,
and you guys all that out there. You know what
it is to hit your first big long shot. I
was at Mammick Park when I was ten years old,
my dad. You know, I still remember the two horses
that I hit for two dollars with my dad, miss
self and Tinsley's Dream. I remember the name till this day.
But you just it's amazing, four hundred dollars. I was
hooked for life.
Speaker 2: That was it.
Speaker 1: Next thing I know, I'm eleven, twelve years old, taking
buses to the track behind my parents without them even knowing,
and my little buddies and trying to get someone to
put bets at me because I was you know, I
was only eleven and twelve, so I know what it's like.
So anyway, parlay sucker bets. Trust me, It's all I'm saying.
Speaker 2: I remember my first big one. It was like two
am and I was up and there was an mm
A card and there was a guy fighting and he
had one leg and I bet against him and I
was like, this is the easiest money that that that
that I've ever made in my life. And I was like, oh,
this must be how it's like every single time, this
is the easiest betting ever. And boy, was I wrong.
I'll never forget, never forget that.
Speaker 1: That's something our first bet. We remember that star first.
Speaker 2: Remember I remember it? All right, Let's do an MLB prop.
Billy always come out and give us a M A
B prop. What do you like today?
Speaker 1: Let's go to Cleveland, Parker Messic total strikeouts over four
and a half minus one fy five or I don't
even mind you going over five and a half. I
seen plus one in a quarter, so a little gret
at a middle road there as a five. I like
going with these young prospects late in the season. He's
got six k's and both of his starts, and now
he goes against the Red Sox lineup today. That that strikes
out a ton of against lefty. So let's go over
five and a half. Let me just see. I'm tanna
me see what I'm I'm on, Ben MGM over four
and a half minus fifty five or over five and
a half plus a quarter. I don't mind too, Parker
Messik over and yeah. So anyway, I'm getting off fair
with you, and I'm starting up my new podcast today.
I didn't even announce it yet on Twitter. Andy new
podcast today, Kelly and Crack Kelly and Vegas and Bill Krachenberger.
A weekly podcast. It's not gonna be long, about thirty
minutes each each episode. We're gonna film it on Mondays
and we'll have it out there for people. It's gonna
be recapping the weekend, maybe talking to Vegas lifestyle, what's
going on here, a little bit out of the weekend
whent and it should be fun. It's a weekly podcast.
Speaker 2: All right, awesome stuff. Thank you, Bill, have on with that,
Kelly and crap, don't forget me check that out. Thanks
a lot, Bill, Thanks, have a great day. All right, guys.
We're running a few specials here. The big one this
week is seven days for seventy seven dollars. That is
a full week of all plays starting two day. You
can get plays today in MLB College football all the
way through the weekend. Seven days. This is discounted down
to just eleven dollars per day. This is where the
betting season really really kicks up. We got football damn
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a new handicapper, great, get them for seventy seven dollars.
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Eleven dollars a day, seven days, all access NFL, college football, MLB,
and every other sport that your handy kapper has. All right, Chris,
let's go to all around the world. Let's give the
people some free plays here, and we got a couple
of a couple NFL plays. Then we'll throw a player
prop in here. For MLB, we'll start Bangals at Browns.
I like the Browns over twenty and a half on
their team total. This Bengals defense, man, man, are they bad.
They gave up over twenty five points per game last season.
Didn't see any upgrades. They give up ninety three points
in the preseason. I know it's preseason, but ninety three
points the three games is horrific. And honestly, for the Browns,
this is probably the healthiest we're gonnaver gonna see Joe
Flacco this season. So if we're gonna bet on the
Browns with Joe Flackwell quarterback. It's probably gonna be in
Week one. So I like betting the opponent of the
Bengals over their team total just about every week, so
we're gonna take them. This is an interesting player prop
here Andrew Monasterio to have a hit. This Sky's eleven
games in a row with a hit. That's an incredible streak.
He's facing Walker Tyson Walker today. Walker gave up ten
hits in the last game and Monsterario three at bats
versus Walker and he has two hits, so you know,
only faced him in one game, but he had good
success there. And we'll go to the Ravens and the Bills.
Lamar Jackson over one and a half touchdown passes. This
was an incredible prop that hit last year, going back
to last year, nine straight games. He's gone over that
last four games. He's just been absolutely on fire. So
like you in the regular season, going nine games in
a row. And I know Derek Henry gets all the headlines,
but Lamar Jackson is completely underpriced. This is like minus
one fifteen on some of these books. So Lamar Jackson
over one and a half passing touchdowns. I know the
Bills defense is good Lamar Jackson's just gonna be a
little bit better. So all right, let's bring in Bryan Power.
Got to get his thoughts on some MLB. But first, Brian,
we got to talk this TCU North Carolina game. Ayeah, Yeah,
how do you break this game down?
Speaker 1: Like?
Speaker 2: What are you looking at in this game? This? This
feels like one of the tough ones. So how do
you go about approaching this game?
Speaker 5: Well, I think that was a very excellent lead in
question there Andy over the weekend.
Speaker 4: I think if there's one thing we all learn in conson.
Speaker 5: And no matter how much we read and study in
the off season, it is very difficult predictably actually look
like when they hit the field. And to your point
well stated, coming to twenty twenty five guys, there is
arguably no bigger unknown in the entire country across the
North Carolina under Bill Belichick's seventy two faces from the
transfer portal, I'll repeat that number, seventy two faces. Look,
we know the transfer portal. It's here here to say
it's the way it is. Seventy is a lot even
by the modern standard. Is Bill going to give the
same effort here that he did during his Hall of
fame NFL career or is he just living that hashtag
best life with a girlfriend that's a third of his age.
I don't know, Andy, And if anyone tells you they do,
they're lying to you. But here's a classic belot Chick
quote for you about his team here coming into the season,
the Tar Heels quote. I can't tell you how players
are going to perform.
Speaker 4: That'll be up to them. Thank you for that, Bill.
That is not all.
Speaker 5: But the one thing I will say about this game
with certainty, and Gianni talked about it in the opening segment,
is TCU's the side that's taking all the money. Obviously
a long time ago, when this line first open, you
could have bet the horn Frogs as an underdog. Now
they're minus three and a half, maybe heading to minus
four on the road.
Speaker 4: I agree.
Speaker 5: I concur with Gihanny that if you like to TCU,
I think you missed your window here. But I actually
think I'm in the minority here, Andy, and I'm gonna
say TCU takes a small step back in twenty twenty five.
Let's talk about them. Let's not forget about there are
two sides of this game. I think the Hordon Frogs
probably end up as a seven or eight win team
when all is said and done at the end of
the season. Note they were much improved last year, but
there was a reason for that in terms of the schedule.
TCU did not face a single ranked opponent all of
last season. Now North Carolina clearly not ranked. They're an
unknown and as you know, I do think the Tarios
will better defensively this year. I could say that with confence.
Steve Belichick. Phil Sun obviously is the coordinator. His defense
at Washington last year, that's the Washington Huskies was great
on the offensive side of the ball. Geo Lopez transfers
into play quarterback for North Carolina. He was in South Alabama.
I liked him last year. He's gonna be upgrade over
what UNC had last year under center. So, in terms
of making a pick for this game, because that's certainly
what we're all here for, and you want to hear
full disclosure, I got nothing for the clients Andy on
this one. To Cracks point that last segment, you don't
have to make a pick on every game just because
it's on national TV. But if you forced me to,
I'd say get a little frisky at this point, bet
North Carolina on the money line.
Speaker 4: Stranger things have happened. Remember it was two years ago.
Speaker 5: TCU opened the season against Colorado deon Sanders first game.
I know they're two independent events. Just because they lost
once doesn't mean they're gonna lose again. But you know,
I don't think Bill's gonna phone it in. I don't
think he's gonna want to get embarrassed on national television.
And lastly, North Carolina was owen seven ats at home
last year. I don't think they're gonna go the entire
season again this year without covering in Chapel Hill. So
I like, I think, if you're gonna play this game
right now, you want to have some fun, you have
some pizza cha, pizza money, some couch change left over
from the weekend. North Carolina money line is how I
would do this if they if they cover the spread,
they're gonna win the game outright, is my opinion.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree that you're I think your best point
is why why I bet this game? Okay, I think
I don't. I don't know. I don't know how you
can say, oh, I have a very strong, awesome opinion
that's totally going to be right on this game tonight,
but it should be. It should be interesting here. Uh Brian,
real quick before we get to MV. What was your
take first week in college football? I I was completely
wrong with some of the things that I thought, like
that IU was going to be a juggernaut. They were
barely won by two scores against Old Dominion. I thought
Louisiana was going to be amazing. They scored twelve points
to against Rice. Uh So, my, my, my thoughts of
these teams, we were way off. What did you see
in the first week?
Speaker 5: Yeah, like I said of the opening, you can do
all with the way college football is now, with so
much player movement, coaching changes every year. You can study
all off season and you really don't want to look
at him. It was important, I think to a light
the first week of the season.
Speaker 4: I watched a lot of football.
Speaker 5: I can tell you the last four days, and my
big takeaway when I watched last night's game between Notre
Dame and Miami. You watched the Texas Ohio State game
on Saturday. I had Ohio State in that one. My
big takeaway is, and this should have.
Speaker 4: Been common sense.
Speaker 5: Eighteen nineteen year olds making their first career start on
the road or just making their first road start, because
that's tough to do, man, And I think you need
to temper your enthusiasm sometimes about these coaches that are
a part of these quarterbacks that don't have a lot
of experience in big games. I think that was the thing.
And you know, I look at a team like LSU,
what they were able to do something, They were able
to go on the road and win a big game.
Why here at nus Meyer's got experience, he's a senior.
I was very impressed with LSU quite Franklyn't I don't
think we should throw Clemson into the trash heap of life.
But I was very impressed with clubs and obviously very
impressed with Florida State.
Speaker 4: Thomas Castianos.
Speaker 5: Is he the greatest quarterback in the country, No, far
from it, But he's played big games before and Ty
Simpson of Alabama really hadn't. So in retrospect, that line
was probably, it's easy to say now a touch too high.
Speaker 4: So experience matters, Andy, I think that is a easy
takeaway from Week one.
Speaker 2: Titans has been bringing this up, but do you know
anything about East Texas A and M I know.
Speaker 4: That they're in for some tough sledge in this week.
Speaker 2: I've never heard of them, but.
Speaker 5: Yeah, look, oh, by the way, a cheap plug here.
I know they will want me to plug it anyway.
The Blitz every Thursday, one pm Eastern immediately following you,
we are live.
Speaker 4: Every Thursday taking your question.
Speaker 5: We do take STS questions. If you want confirmation by
us for your ststick. We gave it to you on Thursday.
And I think every single question we had shouldn't we
take this team at SCS? I think every single time
I said, I guess you should do that, I think
all of those were right. Film will take f STS
questions on the books.
Speaker 2: Let's move to MLB here, real quick, Rangers and Diamondbacks.
Corbyn for the Rangers, Nelson Diamondbacks, Dimmingbacks looking at minus
one fifty here. He used to be Patrick Corban was
an automatic fade not so much, but he's improved. He's
gotten better. Here, what's your breakdown on this game?
Speaker 5: So, despite getting hit by a bunch of key injuries recently, Andy,
I think the Rangers are a team to look out
for this final month of the regular season. Of all
the teams currently not in a playoff position.
Speaker 4: I think the Rangers.
Speaker 5: Are most likely to make and get into the postseason.
There's a lot to like about this team. Ninety one
different when I bring up and all those fun things,
but they're run differential, seventh best at all baseball. It's
basically the same as the Tigers, better than the Blue James.
The Rangers pitching staff as the lowest team in all
of baseball now a lot of them. They're playing on
the road here Arizona's inner friendly, and if at home,
where the Rangers really nails. Still, I think the fact
they have the lowest tr and all of baseball is
worth noting. I think the fact they're number one in
defensive run saved is worth noting. Andy, this is a
good team in the field. I get e of all
the semi and seeger, those are all big losses. I
mentioned the injuries at the top, but you look at
tonight's matchup with the Diamondbacks and Giohnny Crack. They always
talk about this betting numbers, not necessarily teams. I would
I look at this game when I handicapped it, I
would much rather be the Rangers at plus one thirty
than the Diamondbacks at minus one fifty.
Speaker 4: That's my takeaway from this game. I think these.
Speaker 5: Teams are pretty even, and I actually have the Rangers
power rated ahead of the Diamondbacks. Rangers coming on a
five game win streak. Meanwhile, you got Arizona off the
demoralizing walk off loss Sunday to the Dodgers. We got
to mention, you know, Dback's bullpen bottom five in ERA,
so no lead is safe with them. And you mentioned
the starting pitching matchup with Nelson and Corbyn. Yes, slight
edged Nelson and the Dbacks there, but Corbyn is coming
off as best outing of the entire season, eight shutout
innings against the Angels. And this Rangers offense, that was
their albatross all year. They weren't scoring runs, that's why
they're not in playoff position, but they had the twenty
run game last week, they scored seven or more five
times during an eight and one stretch, and then again
includes five straight wins. Coming in to night, I will
gladly grab Texas at plus money in this series opener.
Speaker 2: NFL Week one. Any thoughts any hot takes teams you
like in teams you're not liking. We were talking about
the Packers like taking all this money after the Mica
Parsons trade and everyone's high on the Raiders. What are
you think in the NFL Week one?
Speaker 5: Yeah, why not do a public service announcement right now? Look, guys,
I'm gonna be honest with you because we've got that
great special coming up that you mentioned seven days for
seventy seven dollars. Look, anyone who knows me, anyone who's
been watching me on the show all across Wage to
Talk TV knows you know. We like to go contrarian.
We like a lot of underdogs. I'm just gonna warn
you now, if you're with me, the way I've had
success in the past. In Week one, it's taking the
points with some ugly teams, teams at the people.
Speaker 4: That most people go on a bet.
Speaker 5: And that's what I like, you know, I mean, there's
been some I know some people in the chat. I
know you crack Jeohnny. You've all talked about the underdogs
that have caught your eye. Yeah, fit you know FTP
fade the public.
Speaker 4: In Week one. That's what I do.
Speaker 5: Don't have anything officially locked and loaded yet, but I
have a number of games circled in my book.
Speaker 4: I always like to handwrite things so it makes me
remember them better.
Speaker 2: Love it, Love it, Brian, you already mentioned the blitz Monday.
What do you have about for everyone?
Speaker 5: One best bet in Major League Baseball Andy Number one
in Major League Baseball the last seven days at wage
to talk run a nice ten and two run on
the diamond, two and one over all on Sunday thanks
to the under on the Sunday Night baseball game between
the Braves and Phillies.
Speaker 4: That one was really never a doubt.
Speaker 5: I hate the idea that the game is gonna get
betied and go into extra innings with a stupid ghost runner.
Speaker 4: You never know what's going to happen there.
Speaker 5: But at one one I was still feeling okay, and
luckily the Braves just won at the top of the ninth.
Had the under Miami Notre Dame in the first half
was a smart bet, wasn't it, Because if you got
in late on that under, you may not have won
the full game, But the first half under was a winner.
Speaker 4: Votech was our only loser. Yesterday didn't look as good
as I thought they were going to.
Speaker 5: But one best bet today in Major League Baseball four
percent Number one MLB last seven days and I've been
talking about this on the Power five all week. I
do have a coupon code for the find people, Andy
Power three pow Er number three. You use that, you
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So right hand side of my page you see a
three day all access, you buy it. You enter the
code power three and you'll get it for twenty nine dollars.
Speaker 2: Keep crushing, Brian, can't wait for the Blitz on Thursday.
Keep keep killing it in Major League Baseball, Keep telling people.
Don't ignore these on sports just because of football season.
There's a lot of money to be made, So keep
doing your thing. Brian, thanks so much for joining us.
Have a great Monday, you too, Maady all right. Promo
code for myself, Andy thirty A and d Y three
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n D Y three zero. All right, that's it for
us on a Monday. Thanks so much for joining us
on the hope you guys have a good one. Good
luck on all your places. We're gonna be back tomorrow
to keep talking about football and Major League Baseball. We're
gonna continue to keep building those bankrolls. Thanks so much.
Good luck on your place today and take care