WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.280 --> 00:00:02.319 Hey guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to 2 00:00:02.359 --> 00:00:04.879 you today about a way that you can help support 3 00:00:04.919 --> 00:00:08.400 the podcast if you're not already to support the channel 4 00:00:08.720 --> 00:00:12.119 is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon 5 00:00:12.199 --> 00:00:15.160 memberships that start at just five dollars a month, and 6 00:00:15.320 --> 00:00:17.839 when you sign up, you get access to all of 7 00:00:17.879 --> 00:00:21.079 our episodes add free. That's the big bonus for that. 8 00:00:21.239 --> 00:00:24.199 I mean, we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for 9 00:00:24.320 --> 00:00:28.160 our subscribers, but this is the biggest and best way 10 00:00:28.199 --> 00:00:32.520 that you can support the Teamhouse channel and podcast if 11 00:00:32.560 --> 00:00:35.479 you'd like to, and we really appreciate that, So go 12 00:00:35.679 --> 00:00:39.240 and check us out at patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. 13 00:00:42.920 --> 00:00:43.399 We're live. 14 00:00:44.359 --> 00:00:48.640 Okay, hello everyone, Welcome to a live episode of Iizon 15 00:00:49.439 --> 00:00:54.359 for an extraordinary incident, Israel's attack on Iran. We don't 16 00:00:54.359 --> 00:00:57.200 have Chason with us today, but he will be back 17 00:00:57.240 --> 00:00:59.759 with us in a couple of days, so we've only 18 00:00:59.759 --> 00:01:02.600 got a limited amount of time. I am going to 19 00:01:02.600 --> 00:01:05.400 do kind of a stream of consciousness talk about what 20 00:01:05.480 --> 00:01:08.840 we do know has happened, and hopefully put to rest 21 00:01:08.920 --> 00:01:13.799 some rather scarlets rumors that have started flowing around in 22 00:01:14.159 --> 00:01:20.480 the media this morning especially those involving speculation about US involvement, 23 00:01:20.560 --> 00:01:26.480 which which are preturreed concerning anyway, I mean the reports 24 00:01:26.480 --> 00:01:31.319 are concerning. So here's what we know. The attack took 25 00:01:31.359 --> 00:01:36.640 place in three waves, and the initial wave unknown number 26 00:01:36.640 --> 00:01:38.640 of aircraft. By the way, there were about one hundred 27 00:01:38.640 --> 00:01:43.560 aircraft involved total in the attacks, a mix of F thirty, fives, 28 00:01:43.599 --> 00:01:49.079 F fifteen, Charlie Delta, no confirmation of F sixteen's but 29 00:01:49.159 --> 00:01:53.359 some of the some of those planes were also refuelers, 30 00:01:53.400 --> 00:01:55.319 and that's important. I'm going to get back to that. 31 00:01:55.560 --> 00:01:57.200 And I do want to say right off the bat, 32 00:01:57.319 --> 00:02:03.120 because in Twitterland there's there's there's some rather hysterical speculation 33 00:02:03.359 --> 00:02:06.439 that the US provide refuelers for this attack, and I 34 00:02:06.439 --> 00:02:10.960 would say there's absolutely no indication that that happened. In fact, 35 00:02:11.319 --> 00:02:13.599 everything points to the fact that the US was not 36 00:02:13.759 --> 00:02:16.919 involved in that sense. Uh And in any case, the 37 00:02:16.960 --> 00:02:20.159 Israelis didn't need US help for their refueling efforts. And 38 00:02:20.199 --> 00:02:24.039 I'll get into that little bit. So three waves, the 39 00:02:24.159 --> 00:02:27.719 first wave went after targets in Syria. And get this, 40 00:02:27.800 --> 00:02:31.360 the in Iraq all right, probably not yeah, probably not 41 00:02:31.439 --> 00:02:38.840 with Iraqi permission, but a radar site in Babylon was 42 00:02:39.120 --> 00:02:42.159 was hit. It's kind of ironic we're dealing with biblical names. 43 00:02:42.680 --> 00:02:47.199 Even as far feel as iraq uh and and in Syria. 44 00:02:48.520 --> 00:02:54.479 They went after both anti air defense sites and radar sites. Okay, 45 00:02:54.479 --> 00:02:57.560 that was in the first wave. Now the second wave 46 00:02:58.520 --> 00:03:00.199 went all the way to Iran, which, by the way, 47 00:03:00.199 --> 00:03:03.159 I want to remind everyone is over one thousand miles away, 48 00:03:03.159 --> 00:03:06.759 which is important when we start talking about refueling. Although 49 00:03:06.800 --> 00:03:12.599 the thirty five Israel has some I think thirty nine 50 00:03:12.800 --> 00:03:15.599 F thirty fives right now, that's important to know too 51 00:03:15.639 --> 00:03:17.680 because some of the newspaper report, a lot of media 52 00:03:17.719 --> 00:03:19.919 reports say there are one hundred F thirty five is involved, 53 00:03:19.919 --> 00:03:23.120 which would have been indeed extraordinary. But in any case, 54 00:03:23.280 --> 00:03:27.159 so the F thirty five has arranged about thirteen hundred miles. 55 00:03:27.199 --> 00:03:34.479 But you know, these reallys us have been saying publicly 56 00:03:34.840 --> 00:03:37.759 that they can launch an attack on Iran without refueling 57 00:03:37.759 --> 00:03:40.439 their thirty fives. Neither here nor that they had the 58 00:03:40.479 --> 00:03:44.039 ability to do so, and are doubtedly all F thirty 59 00:03:44.039 --> 00:03:48.120 fives were involved, but there are also drones too. Now, 60 00:03:48.159 --> 00:03:50.960 the first way, the second wave, this is the first 61 00:03:50.960 --> 00:03:54.039 one that into Iran. The second wave just like we 62 00:03:54.120 --> 00:03:59.599 predicted here on this channel, when after anti air defense systems, 63 00:04:00.319 --> 00:04:03.360 specifically S thirty five and S four hundred, the Israelis 64 00:04:03.360 --> 00:04:07.759 are reporting that they have removed from the play from 65 00:04:07.800 --> 00:04:11.400 the chessboard every single S three hundred and S four 66 00:04:11.479 --> 00:04:13.960 hundred that the Uranians had, and the Uranians just had 67 00:04:13.960 --> 00:04:16.480 a plus up from a Russia. And as far as 68 00:04:16.800 --> 00:04:20.600 that is, yeah, that is significant, right, So, you know, 69 00:04:20.680 --> 00:04:25.560 regardless of subsequent outcomes, regardless of what happens after this, 70 00:04:25.759 --> 00:04:32.639 the fact that Israel specifically denuded Iran's ability to defend itself, 71 00:04:32.800 --> 00:04:36.680 not just for this particular raid, but for some time 72 00:04:37.040 --> 00:04:40.959 until Russia can, you know, can backfill these systems. That 73 00:04:41.120 --> 00:04:45.199 is significant, right, since a message and it means and 74 00:04:45.480 --> 00:04:47.439 you know, it's quite smart. It means that Iran is 75 00:04:47.480 --> 00:04:50.920 going to be quite cautious about how it responds. Now. 76 00:04:50.959 --> 00:04:55.240 The third wave went after about twenty sites, okay, and 77 00:04:55.360 --> 00:05:00.120 these range from there were some sites around Taranto, the 78 00:05:00.199 --> 00:05:03.600 Revolutionary Guards barracks, and I do want to say this, okay, 79 00:05:03.439 --> 00:05:07.879 the Israeli sent a warning to Inran because they wanted 80 00:05:07.920 --> 00:05:12.839 to minimize uh the you know, to casualties. And they 81 00:05:12.879 --> 00:05:15.040 they basically said They didn't list the targets, but they 82 00:05:15.040 --> 00:05:17.120 said we're going after these sorts of targets, and they 83 00:05:17.160 --> 00:05:20.439 emphasized the fact we are going to be hit hitting 84 00:05:20.600 --> 00:05:23.639 the Revolutionary Guards barracks, and there was one in particular 85 00:05:23.680 --> 00:05:26.560 they hit outside Tehran, but they did warn the uraniance. 86 00:05:26.600 --> 00:05:29.639 That's why you know there are only two people killed. 87 00:05:29.800 --> 00:05:32.240 Unfortunate for those two, but it could have been far worse. 88 00:05:34.720 --> 00:05:39.839 And but they also went after missile. They went they 89 00:05:39.839 --> 00:05:47.319 went after the a site that manufactures industrial components, components 90 00:05:47.360 --> 00:05:53.160 for these for these missiles and drones. The in h 91 00:05:53.439 --> 00:05:56.639 it's called the Asham Industrial Parks. So you'll look on Twitter, 92 00:05:56.680 --> 00:06:00.639 you'll see these great explosions taking place in this industrial part. Well, 93 00:06:00.680 --> 00:06:05.439 they are after going after factories that are providing components. 94 00:06:05.560 --> 00:06:09.600 I think it's specifically for drones. Now in media reports 95 00:06:09.600 --> 00:06:14.240 it's saying that they they destroyed the factories that create 96 00:06:14.319 --> 00:06:16.879 you know, the shy haired drones for that have been 97 00:06:16.920 --> 00:06:21.079 exported to Russia. That's neither here nor there, because Russia's 98 00:06:21.240 --> 00:06:27.360 actually building its own Shahi drones in Russia. But but 99 00:06:27.519 --> 00:06:29.519 you know, you get the idea that they're going after 100 00:06:29.600 --> 00:06:38.079 that capability to manufacture more drones and missiles. Now, the US, 101 00:06:38.519 --> 00:06:42.319 obviously concerned about escalation, has jumped in and said, you know, 102 00:06:42.360 --> 00:06:45.279 the attack was proportioned with the US was heavily involved 103 00:06:45.319 --> 00:06:49.360 in sheapiness attack to ensure that it was proportionate. And 104 00:06:49.680 --> 00:06:51.879 uh and and there's a lot of stuff in the 105 00:06:51.920 --> 00:06:54.639 news about all the forces that the US has rushed 106 00:06:54.639 --> 00:07:00.399 through the area. Well, yes, there were plus absolutely on 107 00:07:00.439 --> 00:07:02.439 the aviation side, but I think that's more of a 108 00:07:02.480 --> 00:07:06.040 proportionate move. And I want to emphasize here that the 109 00:07:06.160 --> 00:07:09.399 United States was not involved in the strike. Okay, And 110 00:07:09.399 --> 00:07:11.279 you can say, how do you know, Andy, just call 111 00:07:11.360 --> 00:07:14.680 it informed speculation. I don't know, all right, but it's important, 112 00:07:14.720 --> 00:07:18.639 I think to get that out here. Okay, So let's 113 00:07:18.639 --> 00:07:24.680 go back to you know what what exactly. We'll talk 114 00:07:24.720 --> 00:07:26.720 about the ramifications, but let's talk about kind of a 115 00:07:26.720 --> 00:07:31.199 little bit more about the breakdown of the of the strike. So, 116 00:07:32.480 --> 00:07:35.519 you know, the logistics challenges have been discussed quite a 117 00:07:35.519 --> 00:07:37.920 bit in the media, and there's a lot of uninformed 118 00:07:37.920 --> 00:07:44.959 speculation the the the Israelis actually practiced this in broad 119 00:07:45.079 --> 00:07:47.680 daylight back in August. Okay, I don't know, you know, 120 00:07:47.920 --> 00:07:51.600 it wasn't really picked up in the papers, but you 121 00:07:51.639 --> 00:07:53.879 could see this from an israel I mean, they launched 122 00:07:53.879 --> 00:07:57.759 this massive I don't know if there's one hundred aircraft, 123 00:07:57.759 --> 00:08:00.959 but it was a it was a sad phalanx at 124 00:08:01.000 --> 00:08:04.519 aircraft that took off from various bases in Israel and 125 00:08:04.560 --> 00:08:09.560 sway out over the over the Mediterranean and again broad daylight. 126 00:08:09.560 --> 00:08:12.560 I think you can find photographs and they even practice 127 00:08:12.600 --> 00:08:17.959 refueling using By the way, the Israelis have some very 128 00:08:18.000 --> 00:08:24.399 capable refueling capability and it's not you know when when 129 00:08:24.480 --> 00:08:29.839 people talk about the limitations on Israeli strikes ranges everything. 130 00:08:29.879 --> 00:08:32.240 The Israelis have been working on this problem the last 131 00:08:32.320 --> 00:08:36.600 decade and they've got, you know, aside from our own 132 00:08:39.120 --> 00:08:42.759 K forty six, you know, the Pegasus refuelers. They have 133 00:08:42.879 --> 00:08:46.320 their own, which is a kind of a refurbished seven 134 00:08:46.360 --> 00:08:51.519 o seven and in fact they've proven using these the 135 00:08:52.039 --> 00:08:57.440 way they operate the boom at night using so it's 136 00:08:57.440 --> 00:08:59.480 a it's a remote visual system. I wish we had 137 00:08:59.519 --> 00:09:02.360 Alex hollings on here, but his what I'm saying, the 138 00:09:02.480 --> 00:09:06.320 Israelis arguably are as capable, probably more capable than the 139 00:09:06.399 --> 00:09:09.519 United States when it comes to refueling because we have 140 00:09:09.600 --> 00:09:12.519 all these problems with the Pegasus that the Israelis seem 141 00:09:12.559 --> 00:09:15.039 to have mined out. They've been practicing this for a 142 00:09:15.080 --> 00:09:19.360 long time, so they did not need us help, That's 143 00:09:19.360 --> 00:09:23.200 what I'm trying to say. They really didn't. And that's 144 00:09:23.440 --> 00:09:25.840 that's an important point too, because when we talk about 145 00:09:26.000 --> 00:09:30.080 Israeli attacks on nuclear facilities, we are you know, we 146 00:09:30.159 --> 00:09:34.720 used to say that that the Israelis couldn't do it 147 00:09:34.759 --> 00:09:41.519 because they didn't have sufficient penetrating ordinance, sufficient quantity to 148 00:09:41.600 --> 00:09:45.440 go after the sites. Well that they may or may 149 00:09:45.480 --> 00:09:48.759 not be true, but they suddenly do have deep penetrating bombs. 150 00:09:49.279 --> 00:09:51.279 And the second thing we say is they need us 151 00:09:51.320 --> 00:09:56.879 help for refueling. That is no longer true. Okay. You know, 152 00:09:56.919 --> 00:09:59.399 as I mentioned, they reported right off the bat that 153 00:09:59.480 --> 00:10:04.840 they they destroyed specifically, you know, all the radars for 154 00:10:04.879 --> 00:10:06.679 the S four hundred and ES three hundred. They should 155 00:10:06.720 --> 00:10:09.080 have been more specific, not the interceptors. That would have 156 00:10:09.080 --> 00:10:11.480 been an impossible task, but the radars are all important 157 00:10:11.480 --> 00:10:20.440 and they're harder to replace. So everything now kind of 158 00:10:20.600 --> 00:10:25.679 rest on the response, right, and all indications are you know, 159 00:10:25.720 --> 00:10:27.879 the Uranians are kind of playing this down. They're saying 160 00:10:27.960 --> 00:10:32.080 that they didn't suffer any significant damage. They did release 161 00:10:32.320 --> 00:10:36.519 a reporting of two military casualties to revolutory guard members 162 00:10:37.440 --> 00:10:41.879 who were killed. Two of the sites that the Israelis 163 00:10:41.960 --> 00:10:46.519 went after were in the western part of western part 164 00:10:46.559 --> 00:10:52.519 of the country, and that is significant because they're looking, 165 00:10:52.559 --> 00:10:55.240 you know, again, the Israelis are looking at Iran's ability 166 00:10:55.440 --> 00:10:59.480 to react, and so by taking out the missile systems 167 00:10:59.519 --> 00:11:02.799 closest to and radars closest to Israel, that was kind 168 00:11:02.799 --> 00:11:06.919 of their priority targets. And that's why you see all 169 00:11:06.960 --> 00:11:09.720 these attacks in the west part of the country and 170 00:11:09.799 --> 00:11:16.960 areas that seem to be quite remote the they used. 171 00:11:17.720 --> 00:11:21.120 Oh and they also I'm trying to remember the name 172 00:11:21.120 --> 00:11:23.480 of the base, the partch In Military Base was hit 173 00:11:24.840 --> 00:11:28.240 almost entirely by drones. Okay, there's no no indication yet 174 00:11:28.279 --> 00:11:31.919 of types of drones, but it's kind of interesting that 175 00:11:32.320 --> 00:11:36.240 these drones. We knew they had the range because it 176 00:11:37.200 --> 00:11:39.480 you know, the obviously they had the range. But but 177 00:11:39.559 --> 00:11:42.519 the point is drone attacks are normally at that range 178 00:11:42.600 --> 00:11:45.399 quite ineffective because as we saw back in April, you 179 00:11:45.440 --> 00:11:49.480 can see them coming and you can track them. But 180 00:11:49.600 --> 00:11:53.679 the bye by masking this within a strike package. The 181 00:11:53.799 --> 00:11:57.399 Israelis were able to carry this off without you know, 182 00:11:57.480 --> 00:12:01.279 drones being intercepted. That takes some planning, all right, on 183 00:12:01.679 --> 00:12:05.440 timing and everything else. So again this was meticulously planned. 184 00:12:07.799 --> 00:12:10.519 What do we watch for now, Well, by all accounts, 185 00:12:10.600 --> 00:12:13.320 life back in Tehran is back to normal. It's you know, 186 00:12:13.399 --> 00:12:17.720 late Sunday afternoon there in Twitter feeds you can see 187 00:12:17.759 --> 00:12:20.879 people just strolling around. There's no sign of damage within 188 00:12:22.039 --> 00:12:25.559 Tehran itself. And I think, you know, everyone's waiting to 189 00:12:25.600 --> 00:12:29.240 see the next statement from Supreme Lea the hour community 190 00:12:29.240 --> 00:12:32.200 because that's going to be critical. And I don't know 191 00:12:32.240 --> 00:12:33.919 if he's spoken yet. If not, he's going to be 192 00:12:33.960 --> 00:12:39.080 speak probably soon. And and if he claims that Israel's 193 00:12:39.080 --> 00:12:45.679 trying to fall to war with you know, a war 194 00:12:45.759 --> 00:12:49.200 between Iran and the US and between Iran and Israel, 195 00:12:50.840 --> 00:12:52.919 then that's going to be a strong kind of de 196 00:12:53.120 --> 00:12:59.120 escalatory indicator. Okay. But but if he focuses on you know, 197 00:12:59.120 --> 00:13:01.799 this is what comine watchers say, If he focus is 198 00:13:01.840 --> 00:13:05.759 on expressing readiness for war, committing to retaliation, well then 199 00:13:06.080 --> 00:13:09.399 now we need to worry. I would say, absolutely, it's 200 00:13:09.440 --> 00:13:12.039 going to be the former. Okay, he's going to come 201 00:13:12.080 --> 00:13:16.000 out and vilify Israel, of course, and the United States 202 00:13:16.000 --> 00:13:20.919 are backing it up, and and then he'll talk about 203 00:13:20.960 --> 00:13:24.000 the dangers of a regional war on Iran has been 204 00:13:24.039 --> 00:13:26.879 anxious to avoid that, and I think that's those you know, 205 00:13:27.360 --> 00:13:31.200 he words in his mouth, which we're thinking, but those 206 00:13:31.240 --> 00:13:35.120 are kind of the de escalatory themes that we're expecting 207 00:13:35.159 --> 00:13:41.159 to hear. That's why I have thing what questions you 208 00:13:41.240 --> 00:13:41.600 had the. 209 00:13:42.799 --> 00:13:44.559 We got a good question actually in the chat that 210 00:13:44.639 --> 00:13:49.039 I was thinking about to from Brian Thomas Andy, what's 211 00:13:49.080 --> 00:13:51.759 the downside of going after the nuclear Their nuclear sites 212 00:13:51.919 --> 00:13:55.320 won't hurt the economy the way oil strikes would or 213 00:13:55.360 --> 00:13:58.360 is there a question if they can actually reach those 214 00:13:58.399 --> 00:13:59.759 targets that far underground. 215 00:14:00.240 --> 00:14:03.840 Yeah, I think that's exactly right, that last part. It's 216 00:14:03.879 --> 00:14:09.039 a question of whether they whether they can and you know, again, 217 00:14:09.120 --> 00:14:16.240 I mean this is just speculation, but we know, like 218 00:14:16.320 --> 00:14:20.240 the good guys know that since Gars are kicked off, 219 00:14:21.559 --> 00:14:25.679 the Ranians have been actually since before then, and in 220 00:14:25.679 --> 00:14:27.799 the last eighteen months or so, the Uranians have been 221 00:14:27.840 --> 00:14:32.720 squirreling away centrifuges in an area of the Tanse that 222 00:14:32.879 --> 00:14:36.240 is that is you know, obviously we believe to be 223 00:14:36.279 --> 00:14:38.879 a weapons in Richmond site, but it's much deeper than 224 00:14:38.960 --> 00:14:42.879 previous sites. I don't know more than that, so what 225 00:14:42.960 --> 00:14:46.840 that you know, But discovering that means that all the 226 00:14:46.840 --> 00:14:51.159 previous calculations, if there were such calculations about striking those sites, 227 00:14:51.240 --> 00:14:54.480 are now up in the air. So we don't you 228 00:14:54.480 --> 00:14:56.960 know that that's the real that's the real risk. It's 229 00:14:57.039 --> 00:15:01.279 not oh, we're worried that Iran will do something if 230 00:15:01.279 --> 00:15:04.000 we do destroy its nuclear capability. I think we're just 231 00:15:04.080 --> 00:15:06.879 questioning whether we and I say we collectively have the 232 00:15:06.919 --> 00:15:11.279 ability to do that. And if we don't, then then 233 00:15:11.320 --> 00:15:16.320 certainly the Urania the Israelis don't, but I will, you know, 234 00:15:16.399 --> 00:15:21.480 I aside from aside from the nuclear threat, the Israelis 235 00:15:21.519 --> 00:15:29.960 were considerably worried about, right, the ballistic missiles. So the 236 00:15:30.000 --> 00:15:34.200 Iranians have like nine types of blistic missile that canal 237 00:15:35.000 --> 00:15:38.039 ranges round and I won't go into I currently remember 238 00:15:38.480 --> 00:15:38.759 the name. 239 00:15:38.840 --> 00:15:41.720 Yeah, no you're not alex Islings. Don't do it to yourself. 240 00:15:41.799 --> 00:15:44.600 Yeah, but but I mean, but they you know, these 241 00:15:44.600 --> 00:15:52.600 missiles range everything from you know to twenty five hundred kilometers, 242 00:15:52.600 --> 00:15:55.600 which is about fifteen hundred miles all right down to 243 00:15:55.679 --> 00:15:58.879 around nine hundred, so they can you know, the longer 244 00:15:58.960 --> 00:16:02.840 arrange ones can certainly slowly reaches from and they're moving 245 00:16:02.879 --> 00:16:08.519 at hallacious pace. I think it's the sedgy flies at 246 00:16:08.559 --> 00:16:15.360 like seventeen thousand columbate ten thousand, ten thousand miles an hour, right, 247 00:16:15.480 --> 00:16:18.519 you know, so it's not some attack, A mass attack 248 00:16:18.559 --> 00:16:22.799 by ballistic missiles like that would be would be very 249 00:16:22.799 --> 00:16:25.240 hard to defend against. And then you've got the whole 250 00:16:27.000 --> 00:16:32.639 Shaha series of ballistic missiles too, you know, so significant capability, 251 00:16:32.679 --> 00:16:35.080 and I think that's what the Israelis were worried about. 252 00:16:35.080 --> 00:16:37.240 That's why that you hit see them hitting these sites 253 00:16:37.279 --> 00:16:38.600 in the western part of the country. 254 00:16:38.720 --> 00:16:41.240 So you really think they decimated their entire like most 255 00:16:41.279 --> 00:16:43.720 of their SAM sites, like their S three hundred. 256 00:16:43.720 --> 00:16:48.600 Four hundred cents, the radars, the radars, I'm sorry, I. 257 00:16:48.519 --> 00:16:50.679 Think it's a legitimate claim when they say they have 258 00:16:51.679 --> 00:16:56.039 they have blinded the the Iranians by taking out of 259 00:16:56.519 --> 00:17:01.480 uniform intensive purposes or their S three hundred four hundred on. Well, 260 00:17:01.879 --> 00:17:03.960 and you know, again, the Israelis have been planning this 261 00:17:04.039 --> 00:17:05.039 for a long time. 262 00:17:05.640 --> 00:17:08.960 So I remember you did mention a few weeks back, 263 00:17:09.000 --> 00:17:13.839 like the Israelis have like really pivoted their military into 264 00:17:13.960 --> 00:17:16.960 like their air force and like being able to carry 265 00:17:17.039 --> 00:17:19.880 out longer range attacks. 266 00:17:20.480 --> 00:17:23.440 When you talk about the Israeli air force strike capability, 267 00:17:23.559 --> 00:17:27.119 it is all very much adversary based, and there's one 268 00:17:27.160 --> 00:17:30.880 adversary it's based on primarily, and that is going after Iran, 269 00:17:32.759 --> 00:17:35.200 not just nuclear sites. But that's you know, that's the 270 00:17:35.279 --> 00:17:38.359 main concern. But also these missiles that have been talking 271 00:17:38.400 --> 00:17:41.799 about the problem is that for the last few years, 272 00:17:41.880 --> 00:17:48.920 Roan's been developing underground missile depots with both transport and 273 00:17:49.000 --> 00:17:51.519 firing systems, and back in twenty twenty, I can't remember 274 00:17:51.559 --> 00:17:54.680 the type of missile, but they did fire the first 275 00:17:54.839 --> 00:17:58.319 ballistic missile from a subterranean site, and that is a concern. 276 00:18:00.119 --> 00:18:02.839 One thing I have a question about because like in 277 00:18:03.039 --> 00:18:05.680 most of the reporting where it said like uh, Israel 278 00:18:05.720 --> 00:18:08.400 communicated where I ran Friday ahead of the strike just 279 00:18:08.440 --> 00:18:12.400 before warning I ran not to respond, Like that was 280 00:18:12.440 --> 00:18:16.079 like really in every single like reporting, was it warning 281 00:18:16.079 --> 00:18:17.279 I ran not to respond? 282 00:18:17.839 --> 00:18:19.359 Was it that? Or was it like. 283 00:18:20.279 --> 00:18:23.160 We're warning you that were coming and this is a 284 00:18:23.200 --> 00:18:26.519 proportional thing. We're not going to like completely wreck you. 285 00:18:27.039 --> 00:18:29.880 Yeah, it's all part of the messaging. D Yeah, you 286 00:18:29.920 --> 00:18:32.839 know what I mean. And remember when I made these comments, 287 00:18:32.839 --> 00:18:37.839 they're agnostic on there, but agnostic about sympathies. But I'm 288 00:18:37.920 --> 00:18:42.079 just saying that it was very clever messaging. So you know, 289 00:18:42.200 --> 00:18:45.519 number one was messaging, hey, here it comes. This is 290 00:18:45.559 --> 00:18:49.160 the strike both for global whence send the Ranians, We're 291 00:18:49.160 --> 00:18:51.920 not going crazy, so you better not go crazy and 292 00:18:51.920 --> 00:18:56.359 return basically once yeah message and then very unusual to 293 00:18:56.440 --> 00:18:58.799 reach out to ran itself and say we're going off 294 00:18:58.799 --> 00:19:03.160 to these things. And that was that was with one purpose, 295 00:19:03.200 --> 00:19:06.000 and that was to reduce casualties because there is an 296 00:19:06.039 --> 00:19:10.640 unspoken agreement that that is part of this you know, 297 00:19:10.920 --> 00:19:13.920 retaliation back and forth, right right, you know, not not 298 00:19:13.960 --> 00:19:16.440 to kill a lot of people. It's I don't want 299 00:19:16.440 --> 00:19:18.279 to be a cynic, but you know, it's fine to 300 00:19:18.359 --> 00:19:20.839 kill a lot of people when Lebanon or Gaza, but 301 00:19:21.599 --> 00:19:24.279 not if they are part of a sovereign country that 302 00:19:24.359 --> 00:19:27.039 might strike back. Is kind of a theory behind it. 303 00:19:27.920 --> 00:19:32.279 Do we see more proxy stuff popping off rather than 304 00:19:32.319 --> 00:19:36.640 like another uh, ballistic missler drone attack on Israel? 305 00:19:37.079 --> 00:19:40.759 Well, I would say so, but you know, hisbola, which 306 00:19:40.799 --> 00:19:45.519 is Iran's main method of striking back his boa, is 307 00:19:45.559 --> 00:19:47.920 on the ropes. Look, I you know, I'm not being 308 00:19:47.920 --> 00:19:50.720 polyannerish about this. I just you know, I think we're 309 00:19:50.759 --> 00:19:54.200 at a time out stage here. I think, you know, 310 00:19:54.440 --> 00:19:58.319 as I've said, we talked about his bolla. No one 311 00:19:58.599 --> 00:20:01.480 on the Hoboalo Aranian side. It's once Hosbolo to respond. 312 00:20:01.519 --> 00:20:03.759 Now they want Hosbolo to recover, and that's going to 313 00:20:03.839 --> 00:20:09.440 take a while. And the Uranians are not in a 314 00:20:09.480 --> 00:20:13.160 position domestically or internationally to strike back it or gain 315 00:20:13.200 --> 00:20:16.240 them nothing internationally it or just filify them further and 316 00:20:16.279 --> 00:20:19.440 lay them open to further attack, especially now they've lost 317 00:20:19.440 --> 00:20:22.759 their anti defense systems. But domestically they're dealing with a 318 00:20:22.759 --> 00:20:26.240 lot of you know, some unrest. All right, I'm not 319 00:20:26.319 --> 00:20:29.200 you know, we're not talking about kind of a whatever. 320 00:20:29.240 --> 00:20:31.319 It was a green or orange revolution as it was 321 00:20:31.359 --> 00:20:36.519 back in two thousand and eight. Green, yeah, necessarily, but 322 00:20:36.640 --> 00:20:39.480 that is that's everyone's concern. You know, they've got a 323 00:20:39.519 --> 00:20:41.839 new president I'm talking about Iran. He's a little more 324 00:20:41.839 --> 00:20:45.480 moderate for what it's worth, and that's supposed to reflect 325 00:20:45.559 --> 00:20:52.519 domestic sentiment and domestic sentiment, you know, is strongly militating 326 00:20:52.559 --> 00:20:55.640 to be part of the world again, right as strongly 327 00:20:55.680 --> 00:20:58.759 as it possibly can in a non democratic country like Iran. 328 00:20:59.200 --> 00:21:01.519 But people are getting pissed off with all this following 329 00:21:01.680 --> 00:21:06.240 foreign adventuring. Their economy has gone down, the toilet price 330 00:21:06.279 --> 00:21:09.359 of bread and you know, the sky high. People are 331 00:21:09.400 --> 00:21:12.279 feeling the pinch they have been for years. And they 332 00:21:12.279 --> 00:21:17.480 don't like reading about Iran gallivanting around, jousting with Israel 333 00:21:17.680 --> 00:21:21.240 or anyone else when when they're having trouble putting food 334 00:21:21.279 --> 00:21:24.440 on the table. And that sentiment I think is influencing 335 00:21:24.839 --> 00:21:27.960 decisions within the Iranian regime. 336 00:21:30.200 --> 00:21:31.799 Yeah, I mean it makes sense for them to be 337 00:21:31.920 --> 00:21:34.079 more pragmatic, right because it doesn't seem like even if 338 00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:36.000 they were to have an all out you can't even 339 00:21:36.039 --> 00:21:38.119 have it all out war, but an all out exchange 340 00:21:38.319 --> 00:21:41.680 militarily with Israel, it's not really gonna work out great 341 00:21:41.720 --> 00:21:42.039 for them. 342 00:21:42.319 --> 00:21:45.279 Yeah, it's it's it's not a it's a lose loose 343 00:21:45.319 --> 00:21:48.880 for them right now. Yeah, and and you know they don't. 344 00:21:49.400 --> 00:21:53.400 I mean, the the Uranians have a new friend, remember that, Russia, 345 00:21:53.960 --> 00:21:58.119 So they're not quite as it might In other words, 346 00:21:58.440 --> 00:22:04.400 they have the ability to recoup recover from this because Russia, 347 00:22:04.519 --> 00:22:09.160 as I've mentioned well, will resupply them with certainly with 348 00:22:09.200 --> 00:22:14.119 the ed offense systems, and who knows, maybe even with 349 00:22:13.200 --> 00:22:19.079 h with ballistic missile technology. It's just the same way 350 00:22:19.119 --> 00:22:21.440 we're worried about Russia providing North Korea with some of 351 00:22:21.480 --> 00:22:26.720 this technology. Certainly, you know, Russia's not bound by any 352 00:22:27.119 --> 00:22:30.119 international ethical norms to prevent it from doing so. 353 00:22:32.720 --> 00:22:37.599 But that also speaks to that broader topic of like 354 00:22:37.680 --> 00:22:39.680 you see this new access kind of form. I hate 355 00:22:39.680 --> 00:22:43.039 that kind of like Atlantic Council word, but that new 356 00:22:43.119 --> 00:22:48.599 like access of like country, whether it's Russia, d p R, K, Iran, China, 357 00:22:48.680 --> 00:22:51.240 I feel like China is probably providing some stuff more 358 00:22:51.240 --> 00:22:54.799 on the low end, like you know, covertly rather than 359 00:22:55.680 --> 00:22:56.720 straight up overtly. 360 00:22:59.160 --> 00:23:01.599 Yeah, I'm just you know, with China though, I mean 361 00:23:01.599 --> 00:23:08.799 there's yes, certainly China and Iran recently signed a signed 362 00:23:08.799 --> 00:23:12.759 a deal, and I'm just trying to think a specific 363 00:23:12.839 --> 00:23:18.960 technology that maybe exchanging hands there. I think more I 364 00:23:18.960 --> 00:23:22.400 think that deal was more important economically perhaps to Iran 365 00:23:22.440 --> 00:23:26.559 than militarily, of course, very much more economically as a 366 00:23:26.559 --> 00:23:31.599 as a market for oil. But the Russian agreement is 367 00:23:31.880 --> 00:23:37.559 very important because remember since nineteen seventy nine, Iran has 368 00:23:37.799 --> 00:23:41.799 not been able to or has limited ability to upgrade 369 00:23:41.880 --> 00:23:45.400 its military equipment. In nineteen seventy nine and the revolution, 370 00:23:45.559 --> 00:23:50.279 the entire Iranian military was outfitted with US gear. You know, 371 00:23:50.559 --> 00:23:53.839 I was, and when I was in Iran just eight 372 00:23:53.920 --> 00:23:57.880 years later, that was very visible. You know, when they 373 00:23:57.880 --> 00:24:01.160 were going to war with the RAQ in the staging areas, 374 00:24:01.200 --> 00:24:07.160 you saw M one thirteen and yeah, and the the 375 00:24:07.519 --> 00:24:11.599 you know, soldiers carrying the US weapons. Back then, it 376 00:24:11.680 --> 00:24:14.440 was like the you know, the original sixteen A one. 377 00:24:15.000 --> 00:24:15.799 It was very. 378 00:24:17.319 --> 00:24:20.240 Uh, it looked discordant, you know, it looked strange. But 379 00:24:20.359 --> 00:24:22.240 that you know, that's even now. I mean, that's a 380 00:24:22.240 --> 00:24:26.039 long time ago. So then they've been kind of gonna 381 00:24:26.079 --> 00:24:28.799 shift since then to Soviet pack weapons, and that's where 382 00:24:28.839 --> 00:24:32.799 Russia former Soviet pack weapons, and that's where Russia comes 383 00:24:32.799 --> 00:24:36.200 in and is a huge ascent. 384 00:24:37.000 --> 00:24:37.279 Sure. 385 00:24:37.759 --> 00:24:40.519 Yeah, I've seen the memes like the lone F fourteen 386 00:24:40.599 --> 00:24:43.920 that the Iranians still have, which I can't believe they 387 00:24:43.920 --> 00:24:44.599 started flying. 388 00:24:44.599 --> 00:24:45.720 It's pretty crazy. 389 00:24:45.880 --> 00:24:48.799 Yeah, let's hope the Russians don't, you know, start providing 390 00:24:48.799 --> 00:24:51.720 them with frog foots. 391 00:24:51.960 --> 00:24:54.480 Yeah, frogs heat frog foot right. 392 00:24:54.519 --> 00:24:59.039 The STU twenty five, Yeah, SU twenty five and twenty nine, 393 00:24:59.079 --> 00:25:02.599 which had been kind of the not you know, not 394 00:25:03.039 --> 00:25:06.559 just the workhorse, but the I mean the most capable fighters, 395 00:25:06.599 --> 00:25:09.799 and we've seen in the Ukrainian conflict. Again, we need 396 00:25:09.839 --> 00:25:12.440 to get Alex hollings on here. Yeah, I mean what 397 00:25:12.559 --> 00:25:16.279 I'm talking about remote boom refueling. 398 00:25:15.720 --> 00:25:18.640 And Alex knows the variance of every single one like 399 00:25:18.759 --> 00:25:19.400 he's uh. 400 00:25:20.519 --> 00:25:22.640 And I want to hear you know, it's very I 401 00:25:23.000 --> 00:25:25.119