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Speaker 2: We're live.
Speaker 3: Okay, hello everyone, Welcome to a live episode of Iizon
Speaker 3: for an extraordinary incident, Israel's attack on Iran. We don't
Speaker 3: have Chason with us today, but he will be back
Speaker 3: with us in a couple of days, so we've only
Speaker 3: got a limited amount of time. I am going to
Speaker 3: do kind of a stream of consciousness talk about what
Speaker 3: we do know has happened, and hopefully put to rest
Speaker 3: some rather scarlets rumors that have started flowing around in
Speaker 3: the media this morning especially those involving speculation about US involvement,
Speaker 3: which which are preturreed concerning anyway, I mean the reports
Speaker 3: are concerning. So here's what we know. The attack took
Speaker 3: place in three waves, and the initial wave unknown number
Speaker 3: of aircraft. By the way, there were about one hundred
Speaker 3: aircraft involved total in the attacks, a mix of F thirty, fives,
Speaker 3: F fifteen, Charlie Delta, no confirmation of F sixteen's but
Speaker 3: some of the some of those planes were also refuelers,
Speaker 3: and that's important. I'm going to get back to that.
Speaker 3: And I do want to say right off the bat,
Speaker 3: because in Twitterland there's there's there's some rather hysterical speculation
Speaker 3: that the US provide refuelers for this attack, and I
Speaker 3: would say there's absolutely no indication that that happened. In fact,
Speaker 3: everything points to the fact that the US was not
Speaker 3: involved in that sense. Uh And in any case, the
Speaker 3: Israelis didn't need US help for their refueling efforts. And
Speaker 3: I'll get into that little bit. So three waves, the
Speaker 3: first wave went after targets in Syria. And get this,
Speaker 3: the in Iraq all right, probably not yeah, probably not
Speaker 3: with Iraqi permission, but a radar site in Babylon was
Speaker 3: was hit. It's kind of ironic we're dealing with biblical names.
Speaker 3: Even as far feel as iraq uh and and in Syria.
Speaker 3: They went after both anti air defense sites and radar sites. Okay,
Speaker 3: that was in the first wave. Now the second wave
Speaker 3: went all the way to Iran, which, by the way,
Speaker 3: I want to remind everyone is over one thousand miles away,
Speaker 3: which is important when we start talking about refueling. Although
Speaker 3: the thirty five Israel has some I think thirty nine
Speaker 3: F thirty fives right now, that's important to know too
Speaker 3: because some of the newspaper report, a lot of media
Speaker 3: reports say there are one hundred F thirty five is involved,
Speaker 3: which would have been indeed extraordinary. But in any case,
Speaker 3: so the F thirty five has arranged about thirteen hundred miles.
Speaker 3: But you know, these reallys us have been saying publicly
Speaker 3: that they can launch an attack on Iran without refueling
Speaker 3: their thirty fives. Neither here nor that they had the
Speaker 3: ability to do so, and are doubtedly all F thirty
Speaker 3: fives were involved, but there are also drones too. Now,
Speaker 3: the first way, the second wave, this is the first
Speaker 3: one that into Iran. The second wave just like we
Speaker 3: predicted here on this channel, when after anti air defense systems,
Speaker 3: specifically S thirty five and S four hundred, the Israelis
Speaker 3: are reporting that they have removed from the play from
Speaker 3: the chessboard every single S three hundred and S four
Speaker 3: hundred that the Uranians had, and the Uranians just had
Speaker 3: a plus up from a Russia. And as far as
Speaker 3: that is, yeah, that is significant, right, So, you know,
Speaker 3: regardless of subsequent outcomes, regardless of what happens after this,
Speaker 3: the fact that Israel specifically denuded Iran's ability to defend itself,
Speaker 3: not just for this particular raid, but for some time
Speaker 3: until Russia can, you know, can backfill these systems. That
Speaker 3: is significant, right, since a message and it means and
Speaker 3: you know, it's quite smart. It means that Iran is
Speaker 3: going to be quite cautious about how it responds. Now.
Speaker 3: The third wave went after about twenty sites, okay, and
Speaker 3: these range from there were some sites around Taranto, the
Speaker 3: Revolutionary Guards barracks, and I do want to say this, okay,
Speaker 3: the Israeli sent a warning to Inran because they wanted
Speaker 3: to minimize uh the you know, to casualties. And they
Speaker 3: they basically said They didn't list the targets, but they
Speaker 3: said we're going after these sorts of targets, and they
Speaker 3: emphasized the fact we are going to be hit hitting
Speaker 3: the Revolutionary Guards barracks, and there was one in particular
Speaker 3: they hit outside Tehran, but they did warn the uraniance.
Speaker 3: That's why you know there are only two people killed.
Speaker 3: Unfortunate for those two, but it could have been far worse.
Speaker 3: And but they also went after missile. They went they
Speaker 3: went after the a site that manufactures industrial components, components
Speaker 3: for these for these missiles and drones. The in h
Speaker 3: it's called the Asham Industrial Parks. So you'll look on Twitter,
Speaker 3: you'll see these great explosions taking place in this industrial part. Well,
Speaker 3: they are after going after factories that are providing components.
Speaker 3: I think it's specifically for drones. Now in media reports
Speaker 3: it's saying that they they destroyed the factories that create
Speaker 3: you know, the shy haired drones for that have been
Speaker 3: exported to Russia. That's neither here nor there, because Russia's
Speaker 3: actually building its own Shahi drones in Russia. But but
Speaker 3: you know, you get the idea that they're going after
Speaker 3: that capability to manufacture more drones and missiles. Now, the US,
Speaker 3: obviously concerned about escalation, has jumped in and said, you know,
Speaker 3: the attack was proportioned with the US was heavily involved
Speaker 3: in sheapiness attack to ensure that it was proportionate. And
Speaker 3: uh and and there's a lot of stuff in the
Speaker 3: news about all the forces that the US has rushed
Speaker 3: through the area. Well, yes, there were plus absolutely on
Speaker 3: the aviation side, but I think that's more of a
Speaker 3: proportionate move. And I want to emphasize here that the
Speaker 3: United States was not involved in the strike. Okay, And
Speaker 3: you can say, how do you know, Andy, just call
Speaker 3: it informed speculation. I don't know, all right, but it's important,
Speaker 3: I think to get that out here. Okay, So let's
Speaker 3: go back to you know what what exactly. We'll talk
Speaker 3: about the ramifications, but let's talk about kind of a
Speaker 3: little bit more about the breakdown of the of the strike. So,
Speaker 3: you know, the logistics challenges have been discussed quite a
Speaker 3: bit in the media, and there's a lot of uninformed
Speaker 3: speculation the the the Israelis actually practiced this in broad
Speaker 3: daylight back in August. Okay, I don't know, you know,
Speaker 3: it wasn't really picked up in the papers, but you
Speaker 3: could see this from an israel I mean, they launched
Speaker 3: this massive I don't know if there's one hundred aircraft,
Speaker 3: but it was a it was a sad phalanx at
Speaker 3: aircraft that took off from various bases in Israel and
Speaker 3: sway out over the over the Mediterranean and again broad daylight.
Speaker 3: I think you can find photographs and they even practice
Speaker 3: refueling using By the way, the Israelis have some very
Speaker 3: capable refueling capability and it's not you know when when
Speaker 3: people talk about the limitations on Israeli strikes ranges everything.
Speaker 3: The Israelis have been working on this problem the last
Speaker 3: decade and they've got, you know, aside from our own
Speaker 3: K forty six, you know, the Pegasus refuelers. They have
Speaker 3: their own, which is a kind of a refurbished seven
Speaker 3: o seven and in fact they've proven using these the
Speaker 3: way they operate the boom at night using so it's
Speaker 3: a it's a remote visual system. I wish we had
Speaker 3: Alex hollings on here, but his what I'm saying, the
Speaker 3: Israelis arguably are as capable, probably more capable than the
Speaker 3: United States when it comes to refueling because we have
Speaker 3: all these problems with the Pegasus that the Israelis seem
Speaker 3: to have mined out. They've been practicing this for a
Speaker 3: long time, so they did not need us help, That's
Speaker 3: what I'm trying to say. They really didn't. And that's
Speaker 3: that's an important point too, because when we talk about
Speaker 3: Israeli attacks on nuclear facilities, we are you know, we
Speaker 3: used to say that that the Israelis couldn't do it
Speaker 3: because they didn't have sufficient penetrating ordinance, sufficient quantity to
Speaker 3: go after the sites. Well that they may or may
Speaker 3: not be true, but they suddenly do have deep penetrating bombs.
Speaker 3: And the second thing we say is they need us
Speaker 3: help for refueling. That is no longer true. Okay. You know,
Speaker 3: as I mentioned, they reported right off the bat that
Speaker 3: they they destroyed specifically, you know, all the radars for
Speaker 3: the S four hundred and ES three hundred. They should
Speaker 3: have been more specific, not the interceptors. That would have
Speaker 3: been an impossible task, but the radars are all important
Speaker 3: and they're harder to replace. So everything now kind of
Speaker 3: rest on the response, right, and all indications are you know,
Speaker 3: the Uranians are kind of playing this down. They're saying
Speaker 3: that they didn't suffer any significant damage. They did release
Speaker 3: a reporting of two military casualties to revolutory guard members
Speaker 3: who were killed. Two of the sites that the Israelis
Speaker 3: went after were in the western part of western part
Speaker 3: of the country, and that is significant because they're looking,
Speaker 3: you know, again, the Israelis are looking at Iran's ability
Speaker 3: to react, and so by taking out the missile systems
Speaker 3: closest to and radars closest to Israel, that was kind
Speaker 3: of their priority targets. And that's why you see all
Speaker 3: these attacks in the west part of the country and
Speaker 3: areas that seem to be quite remote the they used.
Speaker 3: Oh and they also I'm trying to remember the name
Speaker 3: of the base, the partch In Military Base was hit
Speaker 3: almost entirely by drones. Okay, there's no no indication yet
Speaker 3: of types of drones, but it's kind of interesting that
Speaker 3: these drones. We knew they had the range because it
Speaker 3: you know, the obviously they had the range. But but
Speaker 3: the point is drone attacks are normally at that range
Speaker 3: quite ineffective because as we saw back in April, you
Speaker 3: can see them coming and you can track them. But
Speaker 3: the bye by masking this within a strike package. The
Speaker 3: Israelis were able to carry this off without you know,
Speaker 3: drones being intercepted. That takes some planning, all right, on
Speaker 3: timing and everything else. So again this was meticulously planned.
Speaker 3: What do we watch for now, Well, by all accounts,
Speaker 3: life back in Tehran is back to normal. It's you know,
Speaker 3: late Sunday afternoon there in Twitter feeds you can see
Speaker 3: people just strolling around. There's no sign of damage within
Speaker 3: Tehran itself. And I think, you know, everyone's waiting to
Speaker 3: see the next statement from Supreme Lea the hour community
Speaker 3: because that's going to be critical. And I don't know
Speaker 3: if he's spoken yet. If not, he's going to be
Speaker 3: speak probably soon. And and if he claims that Israel's
Speaker 3: trying to fall to war with you know, a war
Speaker 3: between Iran and the US and between Iran and Israel,
Speaker 3: then that's going to be a strong kind of de
Speaker 3: escalatory indicator. Okay. But but if he focuses on you know,
Speaker 3: this is what comine watchers say, If he focus is
Speaker 3: on expressing readiness for war, committing to retaliation, well then
Speaker 3: now we need to worry. I would say, absolutely, it's
Speaker 3: going to be the former. Okay, he's going to come
Speaker 3: out and vilify Israel, of course, and the United States
Speaker 3: are backing it up, and and then he'll talk about
Speaker 3: the dangers of a regional war on Iran has been
Speaker 3: anxious to avoid that, and I think that's those you know,
Speaker 3: he words in his mouth, which we're thinking, but those
Speaker 3: are kind of the de escalatory themes that we're expecting
Speaker 3: to hear. That's why I have thing what questions you
Speaker 3: had the.
Speaker 4: We got a good question actually in the chat that
Speaker 4: I was thinking about to from Brian Thomas Andy, what's
Speaker 4: the downside of going after the nuclear Their nuclear sites
Speaker 4: won't hurt the economy the way oil strikes would or
Speaker 4: is there a question if they can actually reach those
Speaker 4: targets that far underground.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's exactly right, that last part. It's
Speaker 3: a question of whether they whether they can and you know, again,
Speaker 3: I mean this is just speculation, but we know, like
Speaker 3: the good guys know that since Gars are kicked off,
Speaker 3: the Ranians have been actually since before then, and in
Speaker 3: the last eighteen months or so, the Uranians have been
Speaker 3: squirreling away centrifuges in an area of the Tanse that
Speaker 3: is that is you know, obviously we believe to be
Speaker 3: a weapons in Richmond site, but it's much deeper than
Speaker 3: previous sites. I don't know more than that, so what
Speaker 3: that you know, But discovering that means that all the
Speaker 3: previous calculations, if there were such calculations about striking those sites,
Speaker 3: are now up in the air. So we don't you
Speaker 3: know that that's the real that's the real risk. It's
Speaker 3: not oh, we're worried that Iran will do something if
Speaker 3: we do destroy its nuclear capability. I think we're just
Speaker 3: questioning whether we and I say we collectively have the
Speaker 3: ability to do that. And if we don't, then then
Speaker 3: certainly the Urania the Israelis don't, but I will, you know,
Speaker 3: I aside from aside from the nuclear threat, the Israelis
Speaker 3: were considerably worried about, right, the ballistic missiles. So the
Speaker 3: Iranians have like nine types of blistic missile that canal
Speaker 3: ranges round and I won't go into I currently remember
Speaker 3: the name.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no you're not alex Islings. Don't do it to yourself.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but but I mean, but they you know, these
Speaker 3: missiles range everything from you know to twenty five hundred kilometers,
Speaker 3: which is about fifteen hundred miles all right down to
Speaker 3: around nine hundred, so they can you know, the longer
Speaker 3: arrange ones can certainly slowly reaches from and they're moving
Speaker 3: at hallacious pace. I think it's the sedgy flies at
Speaker 3: like seventeen thousand columbate ten thousand, ten thousand miles an hour, right,
Speaker 3: you know, so it's not some attack, A mass attack
Speaker 3: by ballistic missiles like that would be would be very
Speaker 3: hard to defend against. And then you've got the whole
Speaker 3: Shaha series of ballistic missiles too, you know, so significant capability,
Speaker 3: and I think that's what the Israelis were worried about.
Speaker 3: That's why that you hit see them hitting these sites
Speaker 3: in the western part of the country.
Speaker 4: So you really think they decimated their entire like most
Speaker 4: of their SAM sites, like their S three hundred.
Speaker 2: Four hundred cents, the radars, the radars, I'm sorry, I.
Speaker 3: Think it's a legitimate claim when they say they have
Speaker 3: they have blinded the the Iranians by taking out of
Speaker 3: uniform intensive purposes or their S three hundred four hundred on. Well,
Speaker 3: and you know, again, the Israelis have been planning this
Speaker 3: for a long time.
Speaker 4: So I remember you did mention a few weeks back,
Speaker 4: like the Israelis have like really pivoted their military into
Speaker 4: like their air force and like being able to carry
Speaker 4: out longer range attacks.
Speaker 3: When you talk about the Israeli air force strike capability,
Speaker 3: it is all very much adversary based, and there's one
Speaker 3: adversary it's based on primarily, and that is going after Iran,
Speaker 3: not just nuclear sites. But that's you know, that's the
Speaker 3: main concern. But also these missiles that have been talking
Speaker 3: about the problem is that for the last few years,
Speaker 3: Roan's been developing underground missile depots with both transport and
Speaker 3: firing systems, and back in twenty twenty, I can't remember
Speaker 3: the type of missile, but they did fire the first
Speaker 3: ballistic missile from a subterranean site, and that is a concern.
Speaker 4: One thing I have a question about because like in
Speaker 4: most of the reporting where it said like uh, Israel
Speaker 4: communicated where I ran Friday ahead of the strike just
Speaker 4: before warning I ran not to respond, Like that was
Speaker 4: like really in every single like reporting, was it warning
Speaker 4: I ran not to respond?
Speaker 2: Was it that? Or was it like.
Speaker 4: We're warning you that were coming and this is a
Speaker 4: proportional thing. We're not going to like completely wreck you.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's all part of the messaging. D Yeah, you
Speaker 3: know what I mean. And remember when I made these comments,
Speaker 3: they're agnostic on there, but agnostic about sympathies. But I'm
Speaker 3: just saying that it was very clever messaging. So you know,
Speaker 3: number one was messaging, hey, here it comes. This is
Speaker 3: the strike both for global whence send the Ranians, We're
Speaker 3: not going crazy, so you better not go crazy and
Speaker 3: return basically once yeah message and then very unusual to
Speaker 3: reach out to ran itself and say we're going off
Speaker 3: to these things. And that was that was with one purpose,
Speaker 3: and that was to reduce casualties because there is an
Speaker 3: unspoken agreement that that is part of this you know,
Speaker 3: retaliation back and forth, right right, you know, not not
Speaker 3: to kill a lot of people. It's I don't want
Speaker 3: to be a cynic, but you know, it's fine to
Speaker 3: kill a lot of people when Lebanon or Gaza, but
Speaker 3: not if they are part of a sovereign country that
Speaker 3: might strike back. Is kind of a theory behind it.
Speaker 4: Do we see more proxy stuff popping off rather than
Speaker 4: like another uh, ballistic missler drone attack on Israel?
Speaker 3: Well, I would say so, but you know, hisbola, which
Speaker 3: is Iran's main method of striking back his boa, is
Speaker 3: on the ropes. Look, I you know, I'm not being
Speaker 3: polyannerish about this. I just you know, I think we're
Speaker 3: at a time out stage here. I think, you know,
Speaker 3: as I've said, we talked about his bolla. No one
Speaker 3: on the Hoboalo Aranian side. It's once Hosbolo to respond.
Speaker 3: Now they want Hosbolo to recover, and that's going to
Speaker 3: take a while. And the Uranians are not in a
Speaker 3: position domestically or internationally to strike back it or gain
Speaker 3: them nothing internationally it or just filify them further and
Speaker 3: lay them open to further attack, especially now they've lost
Speaker 3: their anti defense systems. But domestically they're dealing with a
Speaker 3: lot of you know, some unrest. All right, I'm not
Speaker 3: you know, we're not talking about kind of a whatever.
Speaker 3: It was a green or orange revolution as it was
Speaker 3: back in two thousand and eight. Green, yeah, necessarily, but
Speaker 3: that is that's everyone's concern. You know, they've got a
Speaker 3: new president I'm talking about Iran. He's a little more
Speaker 3: moderate for what it's worth, and that's supposed to reflect
Speaker 3: domestic sentiment and domestic sentiment, you know, is strongly militating
Speaker 3: to be part of the world again, right as strongly
Speaker 3: as it possibly can in a non democratic country like Iran.
Speaker 3: But people are getting pissed off with all this following
Speaker 3: foreign adventuring. Their economy has gone down, the toilet price
Speaker 3: of bread and you know, the sky high. People are
Speaker 3: feeling the pinch they have been for years. And they
Speaker 3: don't like reading about Iran gallivanting around, jousting with Israel
Speaker 3: or anyone else when when they're having trouble putting food
Speaker 3: on the table. And that sentiment I think is influencing
Speaker 3: decisions within the Iranian regime.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it makes sense for them to be
Speaker 4: more pragmatic, right because it doesn't seem like even if
Speaker 4: they were to have an all out you can't even
Speaker 4: have it all out war, but an all out exchange
Speaker 4: militarily with Israel, it's not really gonna work out great
Speaker 4: for them.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's it's not a it's a lose loose
Speaker 3: for them right now. Yeah, and and you know they don't.
Speaker 3: I mean, the the Uranians have a new friend, remember that, Russia,
Speaker 3: So they're not quite as it might In other words,
Speaker 3: they have the ability to recoup recover from this because Russia,
Speaker 3: as I've mentioned well, will resupply them with certainly with
Speaker 3: the ed offense systems, and who knows, maybe even with
Speaker 3: h with ballistic missile technology. It's just the same way
Speaker 3: we're worried about Russia providing North Korea with some of
Speaker 3: this technology. Certainly, you know, Russia's not bound by any
Speaker 3: international ethical norms to prevent it from doing so.
Speaker 4: But that also speaks to that broader topic of like
Speaker 4: you see this new access kind of form. I hate
Speaker 4: that kind of like Atlantic Council word, but that new
Speaker 4: like access of like country, whether it's Russia, d p R, K, Iran, China,
Speaker 4: I feel like China is probably providing some stuff more
Speaker 4: on the low end, like you know, covertly rather than
Speaker 4: straight up overtly.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just you know, with China though, I mean
Speaker 3: there's yes, certainly China and Iran recently signed a signed
Speaker 3: a deal, and I'm just trying to think a specific
Speaker 3: technology that maybe exchanging hands there. I think more I
Speaker 3: think that deal was more important economically perhaps to Iran
Speaker 3: than militarily, of course, very much more economically as a
Speaker 3: as a market for oil. But the Russian agreement is
Speaker 3: very important because remember since nineteen seventy nine, Iran has
Speaker 3: not been able to or has limited ability to upgrade
Speaker 3: its military equipment. In nineteen seventy nine and the revolution,
Speaker 3: the entire Iranian military was outfitted with US gear. You know,
Speaker 3: I was, and when I was in Iran just eight
Speaker 3: years later, that was very visible. You know, when they
Speaker 3: were going to war with the RAQ in the staging areas,
Speaker 3: you saw M one thirteen and yeah, and the the
Speaker 3: you know, soldiers carrying the US weapons. Back then, it
Speaker 3: was like the you know, the original sixteen A one.
Speaker 2: It was very.
Speaker 3: Uh, it looked discordant, you know, it looked strange. But
Speaker 3: that you know, that's even now. I mean, that's a
Speaker 3: long time ago. So then they've been kind of gonna
Speaker 3: shift since then to Soviet pack weapons, and that's where
Speaker 3: Russia former Soviet pack weapons, and that's where Russia comes
Speaker 3: in and is a huge ascent.
Speaker 2: Sure.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've seen the memes like the lone F fourteen
Speaker 4: that the Iranians still have, which I can't believe they
Speaker 4: started flying.
Speaker 2: It's pretty crazy.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's hope the Russians don't, you know, start providing
Speaker 3: them with frog foots.
Speaker 2: Yeah, frogs heat frog foot right.
Speaker 3: The STU twenty five, Yeah, SU twenty five and twenty nine,
Speaker 3: which had been kind of the not you know, not
Speaker 3: just the workhorse, but the I mean the most capable fighters,
Speaker 3: and we've seen in the Ukrainian conflict. Again, we need
Speaker 3: to get Alex hollings on here. Yeah, I mean what
Speaker 3: I'm talking about remote boom refueling.
Speaker 4: And Alex knows the variance of every single one like
Speaker 4: he's uh.
Speaker 3: And I want to hear you know, it's very I
Speaker 3: find this interesting, but I'm not even going to step
Speaker 3: under this technical precipice. How you know, these the Israelis
Speaker 3: have have played around with the F thirty five, with
Speaker 3: its you know, obviously with its stealth capability, but also
Speaker 3: its refueling capability to ensure that they can conduct a raid,
Speaker 3: an attack that is both stealthy and self refuel you know,
Speaker 3: using that platform. But again, the israelis only half you know,
Speaker 3: hard to say how many air operational, but I think
Speaker 3: we we sold them fifty, but I think only thirty
Speaker 3: nine have been delivered. So again, all this talk about
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty fives is absolute trash. Yeah, but yeah,
Speaker 3: let's let's get Alex back on this is a good trailer.
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, there was a reason why they did
Speaker 4: the three waves, right, The first wave is to suppress
Speaker 4: the air defenses and the others.
Speaker 3: Yeah right, well, well interesting the first the first the
Speaker 3: first wave was to remove any possibility of early warning. Right.
Speaker 3: So we don't know exactly what tracked the aircraft took,
Speaker 3: but it's a safe guess that they went over Iraq
Speaker 3: and Syria, right, because that's where the first wave went
Speaker 3: to remove those you know, the radar sites and the
Speaker 3: air defense sites. It was mostly radar sites, but as
Speaker 3: I said, I think there were also air defense sites
Speaker 3: that they removed in Syria in that first wave. And then,
Speaker 3: as we predicted on the show, the second wave was
Speaker 3: was intended to totally denude the Iranians of their S
Speaker 3: three hundred four hundred capability.
Speaker 4: That's pretty scary. I'm pretty impressive that they're able to
Speaker 4: do that. I mean, because you know, if you're even
Speaker 4: just like a layman who's semi interested in like air
Speaker 4: defense and like, you know, air forces, the S three
Speaker 4: hundred and that's four hundred have been like the be
Speaker 4: all end all of like the surface to air missiles.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean they, I mean the S three hundred member,
Speaker 3: which is an outdate. I mean, it's like a thirty
Speaker 3: year old system was the workhorse in Ukraine and has
Speaker 3: done you know, did incredible work. But but the key
Speaker 3: vulnerability is the radar. You know, you can move the
Speaker 3: interceptors around and disguise them and everything, but the radar
Speaker 3: gives off the signature and that's you know, you can't
Speaker 3: avoid doing that in those systems, and that is what
Speaker 3: undoubtedly the IS radies went off time, you know, anti
Speaker 3: radiation missiles. So you wight to you know, you wy
Speaker 3: to shut down the capability, but if you open it,
Speaker 3: then you open up a window of vulnerability.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So what do you think does happen next with
Speaker 2: with Iran?
Speaker 3: No? I think I think we're going to see I
Speaker 3: don't think anything's going to happen. I think we're going
Speaker 3: to see some rhetoric and then things are going to
Speaker 3: die down. I think, you know, although the really said
Speaker 3: this is the end of the first phase the strike,
Speaker 3: what I'm being told is that there is you know,
Speaker 3: subsequent planned phases are they are contingent upon the Ranians
Speaker 3: responding to this one. So if we just see rhetoric
Speaker 3: in return that I would say, that is it, which
Speaker 3: is good news, good news for all. There's another thing, actually,
Speaker 3: you know, kind of interesting when we bring Alex back on,
Speaker 3: is the command control of an operation like this, and
Speaker 3: it gets back to the you know, obviously you need
Speaker 3: a really good aerial command and control. You can imagine
Speaker 3: doing this. That's not easy and it can't be done
Speaker 3: from the ground. And that is the Israelis again using
Speaker 3: these converted seven oh sevens. So I forget that the
Speaker 3: terms and one of our listeners won't remember, but they're
Speaker 3: not just refuelers, very capable refuelers, but they're also command
Speaker 3: and control aircraft. And that is another you know, the
Speaker 3: fact that the Israelis can command control and operation of
Speaker 3: this size involving multiple types of aircraft, multiple targets, drones,
Speaker 3: says a lot for the you know, their capability. They
Speaker 3: of course, their air force, ever since its formation back
Speaker 3: in nineteen forty eight, you know, when it was a
Speaker 3: handful of World War Two veterans flying believe it or not,
Speaker 3: checkmatee BF one oh nine missish Metz. You know, the
Speaker 3: air force has always been kind of a main effort
Speaker 3: for Israel, you know, the best people and the most money,
Speaker 3: highest technology, and they focused very very much on this capability.
Speaker 3: This was, in a sense, a superb dress rehearsal for
Speaker 3: them if they do go off the Iran's nuclear capability.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: So a bit more detail on the message that Israel
Speaker 4: sent to Iran yesterday for the attack. This is from
Speaker 4: Barack Ravid, the Axios reporter who's really got a good
Speaker 4: thumb on the pulse of what goes on. A senior
Speaker 4: official from another country that was asked by Israel to
Speaker 4: convey identical messages to Iran called me today and confirmed
Speaker 4: the details in the article. Is Israel sent the messages
Speaker 4: to Iran in the days and even hours before the attack.
Speaker 4: One message was we will attack military targets and not
Speaker 4: nuclear energy sites.
Speaker 2: Another message was do not respond. If you react, will
Speaker 2: hit you harder.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, And you know, as I said, implicit it
Speaker 3: that was both explicit and implicit messaging. You know, the
Speaker 3: implicit messaging is you are now very vulnerable. And the
Speaker 3: other implicit messaging ticking out those early warning sites was
Speaker 3: simply one of freedom of maneuver. You know, we can
Speaker 3: do this anytime. You don't have to ask permission to
Speaker 3: cross people's terrain because it didn't get permission from anyone
Speaker 3: to fly over Theirs through their airspace, right, I mean
Speaker 3: they were denied entry by all Jordan, you know, Jordan
Speaker 3: most notably and recently, so you know, to avoid offending
Speaker 3: Ah kind of the forefront Arab powers, you know, Jordan, UAE,
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia. Is very unlikely that the Israelis would ever
Speaker 3: go near any of those countries when they when they
Speaker 3: conduct their overflight. Although I will say when they went
Speaker 3: after Yemen, when they released video of of refueling, you
Speaker 3: could see a friendly Arab country coastline in the background.
Speaker 3: I won't mentioned that that country, and uh, and you
Speaker 3: know not not to say I mean obviously that that
Speaker 3: country didn't allow them to do it. Maybe they did,
Speaker 3: I don't know, right, but but normally this road does
Speaker 3: not count on being allowed overflight of Arab nations when
Speaker 3: they do something like this.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's understandable or at least like putting
Speaker 4: it out there, you know, trying to keep that as
Speaker 4: quiet as possible.
Speaker 3: So any other questions, ste I'm sure a shot, but
Speaker 3: you know we are. This is breaking news and I
Speaker 3: think we've covered this as accurately as as anyone could
Speaker 3: at this rather pompiously, as accurately as it possible at
Speaker 3: this stage.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: So a bit more from Barack ravid Uh. As part
Speaker 4: of the Israeli retaliatory action against Iran, a planet twelve
Speaker 4: planetary mixers that are critical components of the air rans
Speaker 4: ballistic missile programmer tacked. According to three Israeli sources, any
Speaker 4: tear mixers are used to produce solid fuel for long
Speaker 4: Ragia ballistic missiles, and their destructions really impairs Irene's ability
Speaker 4: to replenish the missiles stockpile. So they hit some Yeah,
Speaker 4: they went for it very specific.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, and that was stile Sham Industrial facility, the factory. Now,
Speaker 3: so we gained some very comprehensive planning here.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Any any questions from from listeners before we sign off.
Speaker 4: Let's see if there's any create you guys. It will
Speaker 4: give you guys a few minutes. Like if you want
Speaker 4: to throw out a question in the chat, well, well
Speaker 4: I'll ask it if it's not ridiculous.
Speaker 3: Children are back in school in tront you know, as
Speaker 3: I said, back in school, and it's a Sunday. It's
Speaker 3: in this leave my country, and that's okay.
Speaker 2: Do they go to school on Sundays in Islamic countries?
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, they get Friday and Saturday off. You what
Speaker 3: do you expect a three day weekend?
Speaker 2: Fa? Yeah? Why not?
Speaker 3: I know in Brooklyn it's like a two day week
Speaker 3: at school. But that's that's for other reasons.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's like where Truan's like me. I mean, guys,
Speaker 4: if you have any other questions, shoot them in the
Speaker 4: chat right now. Don't forget to like and subscribe. Also,
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Speaker 4: be in the description. After the show ends, Andy's got
Speaker 4: a substack too. He writes some cool stuff on there.
Speaker 4: All right, hold on one second, all right, yeah, good,
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Speaker 3: The team House has I mean, we're catching up on
Speaker 3: the Teamhouse. The Teamhouse has only you know, one hundred
Speaker 3: and forty five thousand subscribers. And yeah, and I think
Speaker 3: we're at what one thousand.
Speaker 4: Now, almost just before I think, hopefully after this live streaming.
Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, let's let's launch this up.
Speaker 4: Then, all right, guys, we appreciate it. We'll see you
Speaker 4: again soon actually, because we will be.
Speaker 3: We'll be back to in a couple of days.
Speaker 4: Hold on one second, let me make sure I can
Speaker 4: get out of this before we start talking too much.
Speaker 2: Smack.