1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:01,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to Thrilling Threads. 2 00:00:01,879 --> 00:00:05,839 Speaker 2: Today, we're doing something a little different. We are staring 3 00:00:05,879 --> 00:00:10,359 directly into the terrifying physics of planetary failure, just examining 4 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,199 the absolute limits of what the universe can throw at us. 5 00:00:13,359 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: That's right. Our mission today is to go through a 6 00:00:15,919 --> 00:00:19,480 stack of worst case scenarios, detailing the top ways the 7 00:00:19,559 --> 00:00:22,359 world could go spectacularly immediately wrong. 8 00:00:22,559 --> 00:00:25,359 Speaker 2: And we're not just you know, listing disasters. 9 00:00:24,839 --> 00:00:28,679 Speaker 1: Now, we are extracting the science behind the catastrophe, really 10 00:00:28,679 --> 00:00:32,840 analyzing the sheer scale and the frankly terrifying velocity of 11 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:33,479 these events. 12 00:00:33,719 --> 00:00:36,560 Speaker 2: And while these scenarios are hypothetical, a kind of cosmic 13 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:39,280 hit list for twenty twenty six, if you will, the 14 00:00:39,399 --> 00:00:40,600 underlying science. 15 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:41,799 Speaker 1: Is anything, but it's all real. 16 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:45,240 Speaker 2: It's all real. We're looking at measurable forces, kinetic energy, 17 00:00:45,359 --> 00:00:49,799 orbital mechanics, planetary chemistry, the sheer density of astronomical objects. 18 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:52,679 It's an intense exercise in understanding not just how fragile 19 00:00:52,719 --> 00:00:56,039 Earth is, but also it's surprising resilience in some cases. 20 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:59,759 Speaker 1: And for you listening, this is your shortcut to being 21 00:00:59,799 --> 00:01:03,600 well informed about the ultimate threats. We're going from rogue 22 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:06,799 comets that are literally older than our Sun, all the 23 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,200 way to the complete sudden disappearance of the air we breathe. 24 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:12,079 Speaker 2: It's a lot to process, it is. 25 00:01:12,359 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 1: So let's unpack this and let's start with the fastest, 26 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:19,519 most violent threats, the speed demons that come howling in 27 00:01:19,599 --> 00:01:21,319 from outside our own solar system. 28 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:24,079 Speaker 2: It's a sobering thought, isn't it that not all planet 29 00:01:24,159 --> 00:01:28,920 killers originate in our neighborhood. For well, for millennia, astronomers 30 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,599 only dealt with objects bound by the Sun's gravity. 31 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,239 Speaker 1: Right, things from the asteroid belt, the Kuiper Belt are. 32 00:01:35,159 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 2: Stuff exactly our stuff. Now we have to account for 33 00:01:37,799 --> 00:01:41,280 the astounding reality of interstellar objects or ISOs. 34 00:01:41,439 --> 00:01:43,799 Speaker 1: I find the whole idea of ISOs just fascinating. They're 35 00:01:43,879 --> 00:01:46,640 essentially galacta kitchhikers, right. They get flung out of their 36 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,560 own systems by gravitational chaos, and then they just travel 37 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:51,680 through the void for what millions. 38 00:01:51,239 --> 00:01:55,519 Speaker 2: Of years billions sometimes until they briefly slice through our domain. 39 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 1: And for decades they were just theoretical. It was just 40 00:01:58,519 --> 00:02:02,400 an idea that all changed with our first confirmed visitor. 41 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 2: That would be one I twenty seventeen U, one which 42 00:02:05,879 --> 00:02:06,400 we all know. 43 00:02:06,439 --> 00:02:08,719 Speaker 1: As um oh moa such a great name. 44 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:13,360 Speaker 2: It's perfect. The Hawaiian name means a messenger from Afar, 45 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:18,240 arriving first. It really captures the surprise and the significance 46 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,520 of its arrival. It was truly the first confirmed object 47 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:22,879 we knew was not born here. 48 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:25,919 Speaker 1: Okay, so how did we know that so definitively? I mean, 49 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:27,240 what was the dead giveaway? 50 00:02:27,439 --> 00:02:31,479 Speaker 2: It all came down to speed, pure and simple. Most 51 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,000 comets and asteroids that are local to us, they're moving 52 00:02:35,039 --> 00:02:38,400 at a pretty constrained velocity, maybe around twenty kilometers per second. 53 00:02:38,199 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: Which is still incredibly fast, Oh. 54 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:43,479 Speaker 2: Incredibly fast. Yeah, But Umua was traveling at speed so 55 00:02:43,599 --> 00:02:45,879 far above that. We're talking at eighty seven kilometers per 56 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:48,479 second up on leaving the Solar System. That's fifty four 57 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:51,159 miles a second, a speed so high that it couldn't 58 00:02:51,199 --> 00:02:54,960 possibly be gravitationally bound to our son. That non local velocity. 59 00:02:55,039 --> 00:02:57,159 That was the immediate tip off. It was just visiting. 60 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 1: But the speed was just the beginning of a mystery, 61 00:02:59,159 --> 00:03:00,599 wasn't it, Because then there was the shape. 62 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,759 Speaker 2: The shape, Yes, it was unlike anything else we routinely see. 63 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:08,400 Astronomers started describing it as cigar shaped or you know, cylindrical. 64 00:03:08,039 --> 00:03:10,199 Speaker 1: Hot dog, a cosmic hot dog, a. 65 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 2: Cosmic hot dog exactly, an object that was estimated to 66 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,639 be ten times longer than it was wide. That geometry 67 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:20,000 is completely atypical compared to the you know, lumpy potato 68 00:03:20,039 --> 00:03:22,120 shaped rocks and ice chunks that we see all the time. 69 00:03:22,199 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: So you have this weird shape. Plus something else happened 70 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,520 that caused this huge flurry of speculation, and that was 71 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:28,400 its acceleration. 72 00:03:28,759 --> 00:03:32,919 Speaker 2: Right as Umwa Mus sped past the Sun. It didn't 73 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:37,000 slow down exactly as Newton's laws predicted. It sped up 74 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,599 just a little, but more than gravity alone could explain. 75 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:42,719 Speaker 1: And that's where the alien theories started. 76 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 2: That's where the initial highly dramatic alien hypothesis came from. 77 00:03:46,879 --> 00:03:50,840 Some scientists seriously speculated that this acceleration must be artificial, 78 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,520 like it had engines, or a light sale or solar 79 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:56,520 sale functioning as a massive thin propulsion system or some 80 00:03:56,599 --> 00:03:59,680 kind of probe. It seemed incredible that our very first 81 00:03:59,759 --> 00:04:03,439 can firmed visitor from beyond might be an engineered craft. 82 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,479 Speaker 1: It really speaks to the human psyche though face, with 83 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:09,919 something truly new that our physics can't immediately explain. We 84 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:14,199 just leaped to the most spectacular conclusion possible, of course. 85 00:04:14,479 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 2: But after a lot of rigorous scientific scrutiny, the consensus 86 00:04:18,199 --> 00:04:20,920 shifted back toward a natural explanation. 87 00:04:20,519 --> 00:04:22,759 Speaker 1: A less exciting one, but probably more likely. 88 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:26,360 Speaker 2: Well, it's still pretty exciting. The scientific conclusion confirms it's 89 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:28,839 almost certainly a comet, but one that uses a very 90 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:32,639 subtle form of propulsion we rarely get to see. The 91 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:35,480 acceleration was likely due to hydrogen outgassing. 92 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:37,079 Speaker 1: Okay, so what does that mean? 93 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,879 Speaker 2: Because onlya had been tumbling through the incredibly cold interstellar 94 00:04:40,959 --> 00:04:44,680 void for millions, maybe billions of years, a layer of 95 00:04:44,759 --> 00:04:49,279 frozen molecular hydrogen likely built up just beneath its surface. 96 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:51,720 Speaker 1: And as it got close to our sun, that hydrogen 97 00:04:52,519 --> 00:04:53,920 it heated up and vaporized. 98 00:04:53,959 --> 00:04:57,759 Speaker 2: Precisely, that vaporization that outgassing, It acted like a tiny 99 00:04:57,879 --> 00:05:00,959 invisible thruster, pushing it just enough to account for that 100 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:01,879 extra acceleration. 101 00:05:02,079 --> 00:05:04,199 Speaker 1: And that would also explain why we never saw tail, 102 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:06,959 which is what you expect from a comet, exactly. 103 00:05:06,759 --> 00:05:09,639 Speaker 2: The comets we usually see outgas things like water or 104 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:13,360 carbon monoxide ice, which reflects sunlight and create that big 105 00:05:13,439 --> 00:05:18,279 visible coma and tail Oumua's propulsion was silent and nearly invisible. 106 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:21,120 It was an enigma, but ultimately a natural one. 107 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:24,199 Speaker 1: So that was the strange fast messenger. But now let's 108 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,199 talk about the real planetbuster in this scenario, the one 109 00:05:27,199 --> 00:05:30,600 that missed us by the smallest of cosmic margins, Comet 110 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:31,439 three ie at. 111 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 2: Lists Atlas, the third ISO discovered logged in twenty twenty five. 112 00:05:36,399 --> 00:05:40,040 This one introduced a completely different level of well, frankly 113 00:05:40,199 --> 00:05:42,279 pure terror as a threat. 114 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 1: Model ooh Mua was small and weird, Atlas was big. 115 00:05:45,399 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 2: Atlas was much larger, some estimates say up to five 116 00:05:48,319 --> 00:05:52,360 point six kilometers wide. And it appears to be incredibly ancient. 117 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 1: And we have to just pause on that for a second. 118 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:57,439 The age of this thing, our entire Solar system Earth included, 119 00:05:57,759 --> 00:05:59,279 is about four point five. 120 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:01,519 Speaker 2: Billion years years old and three iatlis. 121 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 1: The sources suggest it originated in the Milky Ways thick 122 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:06,959 disc of stars and could be as old as seven 123 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:08,199 billion years So. 124 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 2: It's billions of years older than our Sun. 125 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: Think about that, A visitor that predates the Sun arriving 126 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:15,759 from the you know, the ultraviolent primeval chaos of the 127 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,560 early galaxy. It's basically a fossil from the Milky Ways creation. 128 00:06:19,399 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 2: And that extreme age is key to its weird composition. 129 00:06:22,879 --> 00:06:25,639 Scientists detected high levels of puzzling nickel and iron in 130 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:29,079 the gases around it, a metal rich signature that's highly unusual. 131 00:06:29,319 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 1: But it still looked like a comet, right it had 132 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:32,279 a tail it did. 133 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:36,839 Speaker 2: It displayed classic cometary features, a visible coma and tail 134 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:40,680 formed by outgassing water and carbon dioxide ice, a very 135 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:41,519 strange mix. 136 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:45,639 Speaker 1: So it's metal rich CO two rich, incredibly old, and 137 00:06:46,199 --> 00:06:46,920 it missed. 138 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:51,959 Speaker 2: Us, thankfully, Yes, mercifully. Its closest pass was in December 139 00:06:52,079 --> 00:06:55,120 twenty twenty five, a distance of about two hundred and 140 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:56,120 seventy million. 141 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:57,720 Speaker 3: Kilometers, which sounds like a lot. 142 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 2: It is, but in cosmic terms, that was near miss. 143 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:04,120 It passed within Mars's orbit, missing Mars by a mere 144 00:07:04,199 --> 00:07:07,600 twenty eight million kilometers. We are talking about the difference 145 00:07:07,639 --> 00:07:10,319 of a few degrees of trajectory separating Earth from just 146 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:11,639 utter annihilation. 147 00:07:11,879 --> 00:07:14,839 Speaker 1: Okay, let's go there. Let's step into the hypothetical scenario. 148 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:17,560 What if three I Atlas had been on a collision course. 149 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:20,600 The benchmark for this stuff is always the chicksalub asteroid, 150 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:21,800 the one that killed the dinosaurs. 151 00:07:21,879 --> 00:07:24,639 Speaker 2: Right, chicks Alub was estimated to be around ten kilometers wide. 152 00:07:25,079 --> 00:07:28,279 A massive piece of rock three atlas is roughly half 153 00:07:28,319 --> 00:07:31,720 that size at its maximum estimate maybe five point six kilometers. 154 00:07:31,839 --> 00:07:33,879 Speaker 1: So you'd think, okay, half the size, half the damage. 155 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:36,319 Speaker 2: That would be the logical assumption. But it assumes they're 156 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:37,399 moving at the same speed. 157 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 1: And this is where the terror of an ISO really 158 00:07:40,279 --> 00:07:44,000 comes into play. The physics of kinetic energy the energy 159 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:44,480 of motion. 160 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,959 Speaker 2: The equation is E equals one half envy squared, velocity 161 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:51,399 is squared. That means if you double the velocity, you 162 00:07:51,519 --> 00:07:52,639 quadruple the energy. 163 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:54,959 Speaker 1: And chicks a Lub was a local object, so it 164 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:58,199 was moving at what twenty kilometers a second roughly, yes. 165 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,879 Speaker 2: But three ialyis being in interstellar traveler was moving three 166 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:05,079 times faster, sixty one kilometers per second. 167 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:08,279 Speaker 1: Three times faster. So that's nine times the energy just 168 00:08:08,319 --> 00:08:09,000 from the speed. 169 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,079 Speaker 2: Well, you have a smaller object, but because the velocity 170 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:15,519 is so high, the impact would strike Earth with four 171 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:18,120 and a half times the kinetic energy of the chiseel of. 172 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 1: Impact, four and a half times the dinosaur killer exactly. 173 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 2: That is a true difference between a local planet killer 174 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:25,560 and an interstellar one. 175 00:08:25,639 --> 00:08:29,279 Speaker 1: That kind of energy releases just it's beyond human comprehension. 176 00:08:29,319 --> 00:08:32,960 It would be like detonating hundreds of millions of mega 177 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:34,480 tons of TNT all at once. 178 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 2: The impact would punch through the atmosphere and barely more 179 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,159 than a second, just vaporizing rock instantly, and. 180 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:43,679 Speaker 1: The immediate destruction. The sources detail this pretty graphically. 181 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:47,879 Speaker 2: Yes, the impact point would become a superheated core of plasma. 182 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:51,919 The initial shock wave would generate super hurricane winds of 183 00:08:51,919 --> 00:08:53,440 a thousand kilometers per hour. 184 00:08:53,639 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: One thousand kilometers an hour. That's what does that even do? 185 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 2: It flattens everything, every tree, every building, every life and 186 00:09:00,279 --> 00:09:03,120 form for thousands of kilometers wiped clean. 187 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:05,519 Speaker 1: And that's before we even get to what happens next. 188 00:09:05,639 --> 00:09:08,480 The material launched into the atmosphere. 189 00:09:07,759 --> 00:09:12,559 Speaker 2: Trillions of tons of molten material, vaporized rock magma would 190 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:15,840 be launched high above the atmosphere. As this stuff ranged 191 00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:18,279 back down across the globe, the entire planet would just 192 00:09:18,519 --> 00:09:22,279 erupt into firestorms. The heat pulse alone would incinerate every 193 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:23,399 exposed living thing. 194 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 1: At the same time, the seismic consequences would be just 195 00:09:26,519 --> 00:09:28,039 as bad overwhelming. 196 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:32,039 Speaker 2: That impact energy would propagate through the planet, causing worldwide 197 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:35,720 earthquakes that register beyond anything on the conventional Richter scale. 198 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:39,840 Tectonic plates would shift, triggering massive global volcanic. 199 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:41,559 Speaker 1: Eruptions, and the tsunamis. 200 00:09:40,879 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 2: Gigantic flooding continents hundreds of kilometers inland. It's a full 201 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:45,519 planetary reset. 202 00:09:45,639 --> 00:09:50,519 Speaker 1: But if you somehow miraculously survived the firestorms, the tsunamis, 203 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:54,440 and the global convulsion, the long term catastrophe would seal 204 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:57,639 your fate. The impact winter, a multi year, maybe even 205 00:09:57,679 --> 00:09:58,559 decade long winter. 206 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 2: All that debris cast into the atmosphere soot, water, vapor, 207 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:06,480 pulverized rock. It would form a dense, persistent cloud layer. 208 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:08,559 It would block sunlight for years. 209 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: So photosynthesis would just stop. 210 00:10:10,519 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 2: It would hault entirely. Yeah, the global food chain collapses. 211 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,840 On top of that. The atmospheric debris would combine with 212 00:10:16,919 --> 00:10:20,240 water vapor and fall back down as highly corrosive acid rain, 213 00:10:20,519 --> 00:10:23,480 poisoning fresh water systems and frying any surviving plants. 214 00:10:23,519 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 1: It's a double layered extinction. The blast kills the unprepared, 215 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,799 and then the cold and darkness starved the survivors. 216 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,879 Speaker 2: But there's a final terrifying chapter in this atlas an area. 217 00:10:33,279 --> 00:10:34,919 We have to remember what it was made of. It 218 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:36,919 was rich in carbon dioxide. 219 00:10:36,399 --> 00:10:37,919 Speaker 1: Ice, right the CO two. 220 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 2: Upon impact, all that CO two ice would vaporize instantly, 221 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:43,759 released into the atmosphere with all the rock and water. 222 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:46,639 So once the sky is finally cleared and the impact 223 00:10:46,639 --> 00:10:47,720 winter started. 224 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 1: To subside, all that CO two would still be there. 225 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:52,000 A massive greenhouse gas. 226 00:10:51,759 --> 00:10:55,519 Speaker 2: Trap, a colossal trap. So you shift from a deep 227 00:10:55,759 --> 00:11:00,679 global nuclear winter freeze to a long scorching recover, a 228 00:11:00,759 --> 00:11:02,039 runaway greenhouse. 229 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:05,759 Speaker 1: Effect, a total environmental reversal. The few survivors who managed 230 00:11:05,759 --> 00:11:07,759 to cling on through the winter would then face a 231 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:10,679 hyper scorching planet. It's a complete cycle of destruction. 232 00:11:10,919 --> 00:11:13,519 Speaker 2: The key takeaway here for you is that the true 233 00:11:13,639 --> 00:11:17,559 terror of these interstellar objects isn't their size. It's the 234 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:21,200 compounding effect of velocity, turning a smaller object into an 235 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:24,600 existential threat far greater than a local one. We really 236 00:11:24,639 --> 00:11:26,960 dodged a seven billion year old bullet with that one, 237 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:27,440 all right. 238 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:29,639 Speaker 1: So if the last segment was about the speed of 239 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:33,039 cosmic objects, this one is about the slow, but ultimately 240 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:37,200 catastrophic creep of things on our own planet. We're shifting 241 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:40,480 focus from the void to a colossal ice mass sitting 242 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:40,960 right here. 243 00:11:41,159 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 2: We're talking about the Thwaits Glacier. 244 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: In West Antarctica. Its nickname is not comforting. 245 00:11:46,039 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 2: No, it's aptly called the doomsday glacier. It's an enormous 246 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:51,919 slab of ice, roughly the size of Florida, holding an 247 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,279 estimated twenty five million cubic kilometers of ice, and the. 248 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,519 Speaker 1: Source is called it a loaded trap, which I think 249 00:11:57,600 --> 00:11:58,480 is a fitting description. 250 00:11:58,799 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 2: It's very fitting because of its structure. It rests on 251 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:05,960 a bedrock slope that dips inward toward the continent. That 252 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,639 makes it uniquely unstable and very vulnerable to warm ocean 253 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:10,879 water getting underneath it. 254 00:12:10,919 --> 00:12:13,320 Speaker 1: And it's already melting. It's not a future problem, it's 255 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:14,919 a now problem exactly. 256 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 2: It currently sheds fifty billion tons of icy year that 257 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:23,200 contributes a measurable four percent to global sea level rise today. 258 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,879 Speaker 1: But what's the doomsday scenario? What happens if this whole 259 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,360 colossal structure gives way suddenly? 260 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,440 Speaker 2: The sources outline the immediate crisis if th Waits were 261 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:35,200 to melt completely, that event, just to weights alone, would 262 00:12:35,279 --> 00:12:38,000 cause global sea levels to rise by sixty. 263 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 1: Centimeters, so about two feet instantly. 264 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 2: Now two feet might not sound like complete global annihilation, 265 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,720 but it is enough to make major low lying coastal 266 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:51,240 cities San Francisco, Miami, New Orleans, huge parts of Bangladesh 267 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:52,799 instantly uninhabitable. 268 00:12:52,879 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 1: You'd trigger the largest forced migration in human history overnight. 269 00:12:56,360 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 2: An overwhelming strain on global infrastructure. But that's sixty centime 270 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:01,320 is just the appetizer. 271 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:03,559 Speaker 1: Because SWAITES is like a cork in a bottle. 272 00:13:03,799 --> 00:13:06,039 Speaker 2: It's the cork holding back the rest of the West 273 00:13:06,039 --> 00:13:09,840 Antarctic ice sheet. And if we consider the cascading effect 274 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:14,600 of total Antarctic ice loss, well that's the seventy meter catastrophe. 275 00:13:14,759 --> 00:13:16,679 Speaker 1: Seventy meters, that's over two hundred feet. 276 00:13:16,759 --> 00:13:20,440 Speaker 2: Antarctica holds ninety percent of the planet's ice. If that 277 00:13:20,639 --> 00:13:24,200 entire twenty five million cubic kilometers of ice surges into 278 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,720 the oceans, sea levels would rise by that shocking seventy meters. 279 00:13:27,799 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 1: The scale of that is just it's unimaginable. 280 00:13:30,759 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 2: It really is. Forty percent of the world's population, over 281 00:13:34,159 --> 00:13:37,320 three billion people live in coastal regions that would be 282 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:43,480 permanently submerged global cities like London, Shanghai, Mumbai, they would 283 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:45,600 just cease to exist. They'd become shallow seas. 284 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,960 Speaker 1: And you'd had the contamination issue, right, all that salt 285 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:51,679 water getting into the underground aquifers, poisoning freshwater sources, a. 286 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:54,919 Speaker 2: Global crisis over drinking water that would affect even elevated 287 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:56,039 inland communities. 288 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:58,919 Speaker 1: But this is where we get into some really bizarre physics, 289 00:13:58,919 --> 00:14:00,000 the gravitational paradise. 290 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 2: Okay, let's unpack this for the listener. Yeah, because this 291 00:14:02,519 --> 00:14:04,799 is strange. Sea levels don't rise. 292 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 1: Uniformly, not when you're dealing with an object as massive 293 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:11,080 as the Antarctic ice sheet, which weighs twenty four billion megatons. 294 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,240 So how does its weight change the local sea level? 295 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:18,039 Speaker 2: Think of it this way. That immense weight creates its 296 00:14:18,039 --> 00:14:23,120 own gravitational poll. It's a tiny local gravity well, and 297 00:14:23,159 --> 00:14:27,080 it's drawing the surrounding seawater toward the ice mass. It's 298 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:29,679 like how the moon creates tides, but constant. 299 00:14:29,879 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 1: Okay, so the ice is literally holding the water close 300 00:14:32,639 --> 00:14:32,919 to it. 301 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 2: Exactly when the ice sheet disappears, that local gravitational pole vanishes. 302 00:14:37,919 --> 00:14:40,159 Speaker 1: Instantly and the water that was being held there is 303 00:14:40,159 --> 00:14:42,080 suddenly released and it flows away. 304 00:14:42,159 --> 00:14:45,159 Speaker 2: It flows away to find a new equilibrium across the planet. 305 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:48,679 So while distant cities like New York and Rotterdam flood catastrophically, 306 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:51,679 the sea level right near Antarctica would actually fall. 307 00:14:51,879 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 1: That's so counterintuitive. 308 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:57,399 Speaker 2: It's a strange local counter effect of mass loss amidst 309 00:14:57,399 --> 00:15:00,360 the global deluge. It's a good reminder that the mass 310 00:15:00,399 --> 00:15:03,279 and gravity are the ultimate drivers here, not just volume. 311 00:15:03,559 --> 00:15:07,000 Speaker 1: And beyond the water itself, the melt exposes hidden horrors. 312 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:10,120 We're not just releasing water, We're releasing millions of years 313 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:13,039 of biological history locked in the ice in the permafrost. 314 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:16,919 Speaker 2: The thawing permafrost is a terrifying dual biological threat. You 315 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:19,120 have ancient bacteria and ancient viruses. 316 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:22,679 Speaker 1: The bacteria are a concern because of antibiotic resistance right right. 317 00:15:22,799 --> 00:15:25,759 Speaker 2: The sources raise concerns about bacteria that have evolved traits 318 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,960 dangerous to us, including some strains linked to diseases like 319 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:32,519 cystic fibrosis. But the real issue is that these microbes, 320 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:38,000 isolated for millennia, could transfer resistance genes to modern bacteria. 321 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,559 Speaker 1: So you could suddenly face a global pandemic where common 322 00:15:41,639 --> 00:15:46,559 infections are completely untreatable. That's a nightmare scenario on top 323 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:48,360 of an environmental catastrophe. 324 00:15:48,399 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 2: And then there's the virus threat. Scientists that document a 325 00:15:51,159 --> 00:15:54,559 DNA viruses that have been frozen for over forty thousand years, 326 00:15:54,799 --> 00:15:59,519 perfectly preserved in the permafrost. As the ground thaws, these viruses, 327 00:15:59,559 --> 00:16:01,279 potentially still viable. 328 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: Get released, a new ancient global pandemic. 329 00:16:04,399 --> 00:16:07,799 Speaker 2: It's a very real biological hazard. But the meltdown also 330 00:16:07,879 --> 00:16:11,399 triggers a massive global climate chain reaction, and this enters 331 00:16:11,399 --> 00:16:13,240 on the ocean circulatory. 332 00:16:12,639 --> 00:16:16,639 Speaker 1: System, the oceanic conveyor belt, the Gulf Stream exactly. 333 00:16:17,039 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 2: That influx of cold, fresh melt water directly disrupts it. 334 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:25,240 The conveyor belt is critical because it transports warm, salty 335 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:29,559 water from the equator up to the northern latitudes, keeping 336 00:16:29,559 --> 00:16:32,080 places like Europe much warmer than they would otherwise be. 337 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:34,559 Speaker 1: And the freshwater being less dense. It just sits on 338 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:36,559 top like a cap and stops the whole system. 339 00:16:36,759 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 2: That's the problem. It jams the entire heat transport mechanism. 340 00:16:40,919 --> 00:16:43,720 It causes a radical shift in climate. And this is 341 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:45,000 where the paradox. 342 00:16:44,519 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 3: Comes in, because global warming could cause an ice age, 343 00:16:46,639 --> 00:16:49,799 it could while the melting causes global sea level rise, 344 00:16:50,159 --> 00:16:52,840 The disruption of the Gulf Stream could trigger a rapid 345 00:16:52,879 --> 00:16:56,000 ice age in North America and Western Europe, turning productive 346 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,960 regions into frigid wastelands in a single decade. 347 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 1: It also starves the ocean. 348 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 2: The conveyer built doesn't just move heat, it moves nutrients. 349 00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:06,240 It brings nutrient rich water up from the deep ocean floor, 350 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,720 which is vital for phytoplankton, the foundation of the entire 351 00:17:09,759 --> 00:17:14,640 ocean food chain. Less circulation means massive ecosystem collapse. 352 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 1: Okay, so let's briefly touch on the ultimate terrestrial disruption, 353 00:17:17,799 --> 00:17:19,240 the magnitude twenty earthquake. 354 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,759 Speaker 2: Just as a benchmark, a magnitude twenty is a theoretical event. 355 00:17:23,759 --> 00:17:28,400 Geologists consider anything over a ten physically impossible from plate tectonics, 356 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,960 because the earth crust just isn't rigid enough to store 357 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:32,799 that much energy. 358 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,759 Speaker 1: So to get to a twenty you need an outside force. 359 00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:38,039 Speaker 2: You need something like that three I atless impact we 360 00:17:38,039 --> 00:17:41,000 were just talking about. The energy release would cause a 361 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:44,960 five full minute convulsion of the ground, ripping continents apart, 362 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:49,359 initiating global tsunamis and totally transforming Earth's geography. 363 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 1: It's a vivid picture of planetary instability. 364 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 2: But it reminds us that while Earth's systems are fragile, 365 00:17:54,799 --> 00:17:59,400 ice sheets melt, current stall, the true immediate existential threats 366 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:01,640 the ones that can crack the whole planet. They come 367 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:03,759 from the overwhelming energy of the cosmos. 368 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:07,480 Speaker 1: We've covered high speed impacts and slow terrestrial collapse. Now 369 00:18:07,599 --> 00:18:10,839 let's explore threats that operate on the scale of gravity itself. 370 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:14,279 Scenarios that could destabilize our orbit, physically stretch the planet, 371 00:18:14,519 --> 00:18:15,799 or just erase it. 372 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:18,200 Speaker 2: We are delving into the theoretical black. 373 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,759 Speaker 1: Hole fly by, and what's so unsettling about black holes 374 00:18:20,799 --> 00:18:23,559 is the way their size their event horizon can be 375 00:18:23,599 --> 00:18:25,480 so deceptive compared to their mass. 376 00:18:25,839 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 2: Right, we need to distinguish between different classes of black 377 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:32,440 holes and the specific way each one would annihilate our planet, 378 00:18:33,279 --> 00:18:36,400 because even a near miss can instantly ruin our year. 379 00:18:36,839 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 1: Let's start with the smallest hypothetical nightmare, a primordial black hole, 380 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:43,880 one with the exact mass of Earth. 381 00:18:44,519 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 2: Okay, so, despite having the gravity of an entire planet, 382 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,839 this black hole would have an event horizon of just 383 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:54,240 under two centimeters. It's smaller than a coin. Wow. But 384 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,160 if this tiny hyper dense object were to fly by, 385 00:18:57,599 --> 00:19:01,680 its concentrated gravity would exert mass massive tidal forces. 386 00:19:01,319 --> 00:19:04,279 Speaker 1: And tidal forces are differential gravity. Right, the near side 387 00:19:04,279 --> 00:19:06,680 of the Earth gets pulled harder than the far side. 388 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 2: Exactly, and that strain would rip the crust, triggering massive tsunamis, 389 00:19:10,519 --> 00:19:14,200 worldwide earthquakes, and volcanic chaos. But the worst impact would 390 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:14,599 be orbital. 391 00:19:14,759 --> 00:19:16,519 Speaker 1: It would just yank us out of place, like. 392 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:20,599 Speaker 2: A massive gravitational slingshot. It would instantaneously yank Earth out 393 00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:23,599 of its current life sustaining orbit would either be thrown 394 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,359 inward toward the Sun to be fried, or flung outward 395 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,119 to the asteroid belt for a deep freeze. Either way, 396 00:19:29,319 --> 00:19:30,680 life ends okay. 397 00:19:30,839 --> 00:19:34,440 Speaker 1: Moving up the scale, a stellar mass black hole born 398 00:19:34,519 --> 00:19:37,079 from a giant star, Let's say one that's ten times 399 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,319 the mass of our Sun. It would be about fifty 400 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:40,559 nine kilometers wide. 401 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 2: This is the equivalent of a gravitational bullet. If one 402 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,480 were detected entering the outer edge of our solar system 403 00:19:46,559 --> 00:19:49,559 the Kuiper Belt, astronomers would have only five and a 404 00:19:49,599 --> 00:19:51,880 half hours until total chaos. 405 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:53,559 Speaker 1: Five and a half hours, what would The. 406 00:19:53,559 --> 00:19:58,880 Speaker 2: First signs be gravitational anomalies near Jupiter and Mars planets 407 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,799 suddenly veering off corres, maybe even being torn apart. For Earth, 408 00:20:02,839 --> 00:20:04,960 it would start with a subtle distortion of the night 409 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:09,440 sky from gravitational lensing, the gravity bending the light around it. 410 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,319 Speaker 1: And then almost instantly, the tidal forces would hit. 411 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 2: The planet would crack across continents, violent gravity driven tides 412 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,480 washing across the land, global earthquakes erupting all at once. 413 00:20:20,039 --> 00:20:23,279 A flyby is damaging enough, but a direct hit is 414 00:20:23,279 --> 00:20:26,440 one of the most terrifying instantaneous endings imaginable. 415 00:20:26,519 --> 00:20:28,599 Speaker 1: A direct hit from this thing would just pierce the 416 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:29,599 planet like a needle. 417 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 2: It wouldn't even slow down. The mass is so immense 418 00:20:32,039 --> 00:20:34,559 and the velocity so high. It would rip straight through 419 00:20:34,599 --> 00:20:36,240 the crust the mantle of the core. 420 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 1: And how long would that take? 421 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:41,519 Speaker 2: The timeline is chilling, Just point zero zero four seconds 422 00:20:41,559 --> 00:20:44,119 later it emerges on the other side. The black hole 423 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:47,440 just leaves, and what's left behind a tunnel of superheated 424 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:51,000 collapsing matter. The sudden removal of the core would cause 425 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,279 the planet to rapidly implode and rupture. The shock waves 426 00:20:54,279 --> 00:20:57,799 would ignite the atmosphere, boil the oceans, and leave Earth 427 00:20:57,839 --> 00:21:00,759 fundamentally to formed hemorrhaging into space. 428 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,759 Speaker 1: The integrity of the planet would just be gone completely. 429 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 2: Now, let's consider the next step up, an intermediate mass 430 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:10,400 black hole, maybe a thousand times the mass of the Sun, 431 00:21:10,599 --> 00:21:12,200 about half the size of Earth itself. 432 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,400 Speaker 1: With this one, a direct hit isn't a piercing it's 433 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:16,079 an erasure. 434 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 2: It wouldn't hit Earth like a rock. It would simply 435 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,799 replace this space where Earth used to be. The moment 436 00:21:21,839 --> 00:21:24,440 the planet approached the event horizon, it would be subjected 437 00:21:24,519 --> 00:21:28,960 to those immense tidal forces spaghetification, instant spaghetification, the entire 438 00:21:29,039 --> 00:21:32,039 core gone in an instant, and Earth would just collapse 439 00:21:32,079 --> 00:21:34,039 inward under its own residual gravity. 440 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 1: And finally, the true celestial monster, Phoenix a star, a 441 00:21:39,559 --> 00:21:42,920 supermassive black hole with a mass of one hundred billion suns. 442 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 2: The scale of this justifies visualization. Its event horizon is 443 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,839 one hundred times wider than Pluto's entire. 444 00:21:49,759 --> 00:21:52,680 Speaker 1: Orbit, So even before this thing reaches the Kuiper Belt, 445 00:21:52,799 --> 00:21:55,200 its gravity would be warping the fabric of space. 446 00:21:55,519 --> 00:21:58,880 Speaker 2: Neptune and Uranus would start to drest the Sun's hold 447 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,680 on the entire Solar's and would be compromised. 448 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:05,440 Speaker 1: And at its closest pass, its gravity would overpower the suns. 449 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,079 Speaker 2: Even if just for a few seconds. And this is 450 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:11,519 where the truly strange effects happen. For that fleeting moment, 451 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,480 the side of Earth facing the black hole would experience 452 00:22:14,519 --> 00:22:16,880 impossible continent high tides. 453 00:22:17,079 --> 00:22:21,119 Speaker 1: But also everything on Earth would feel weightless for a second. 454 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 2: A momentary sense of free fall. Yes, as the powerful 455 00:22:24,079 --> 00:22:27,720 localized poll temporarily cancels out the planet's own gravity. 456 00:22:27,799 --> 00:22:30,039 Speaker 1: It sounds almost whimsical, but it quickly ends. 457 00:22:30,319 --> 00:22:33,799 Speaker 2: The momentary tidal strain would cause global earthquakes beyond measurement, 458 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,680 shattering the crust, and as the black hole races on 459 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:41,400 it permanently shatters the Solar System's orbital balance. Earth would 460 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:42,880 be violently flung out into the. 461 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 1: Void, ejected to become a rogue planet, drifting toward an 462 00:22:46,279 --> 00:22:47,720 inevitable deep preeze. 463 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 2: And that brings us to rogue planets themselves, objects not 464 00:22:51,799 --> 00:22:55,240 tied to a star, ejected from their own systems. There 465 00:22:55,319 --> 00:22:57,440 are billions of them in the Milky Way alone. 466 00:22:57,519 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 1: A Jupiter sized rogue flying by would be catastrophic. The 467 00:23:01,039 --> 00:23:04,319 gravity would cause massive tidal waves, deep cracking of the 468 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,279 Earth's surface, widespread volcanic eruptions. 469 00:23:07,519 --> 00:23:10,119 Speaker 2: It's a planet size gravitational bomb. Passing by. 470 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,640 Speaker 1: Even a smaller ones, say a mercury sized rogue, would 471 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,079 do immense damage if it passed close enough. 472 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,400 Speaker 2: If it passed at half the distance of our own moon, 473 00:23:18,799 --> 00:23:22,000 you'd have tides eight times higher than today and land 474 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:26,599 strain causing intense earthquakes and volcanoes. Globally, the whole planet 475 00:23:26,599 --> 00:23:28,839 would feel like it was being squeezed in a colossal 476 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:29,759 invisible vice. 477 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:33,839 Speaker 1: And the scenario of two equally massive earths passing close 478 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,480 by that one is almost poetically devastating. 479 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 2: A brief zero gravity environment, you'd lose the atmosphere and 480 00:23:40,039 --> 00:23:41,880 then an eventual slow motion collision. 481 00:23:42,039 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 1: But the source material offer one really captivating whimsical possibility, 482 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:47,880 the horseshoe orbit. 483 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,519 Speaker 2: This is a real thing. We see it with Saturn's 484 00:23:50,519 --> 00:23:54,440 moons Janus and Epimetheus. Two bodies share the same orbit 485 00:23:54,519 --> 00:23:57,759 without colliding. They continually approach each other then. 486 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,240 Speaker 1: Retreat, So in this fantasy scenario two earths, they would 487 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:02,480 just forever chase each other. 488 00:24:02,559 --> 00:24:04,680 Speaker 2: It could lead to orbital dynamics where one side of 489 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:09,599 the planet might experience perpetual summer. It's a marvelous thought experiment, 490 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,880 a travel destination fantasy born from catastrophe. 491 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:15,319 Speaker 1: But regardless of the size of the rogue, the greatest 492 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,119 hazard is always ejection. 493 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:21,480 Speaker 2: Always a rogue planet passes by imparts just enough momentum 494 00:24:21,519 --> 00:24:24,680 and shoves Earth out of its orbit entirely. That means 495 00:24:24,759 --> 00:24:27,640 either rapid deep freezing in the blackness of deep space 496 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,519 or incinerating closer to the Sun. The orbital order of 497 00:24:31,519 --> 00:24:34,000 our Solar system is just exquisitely fragile. 498 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:38,640 Speaker 1: We've explored destruction on astronomical and planetary scales. Now let's 499 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,599 shift to a purely physics based threat that shows how 500 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,799 mass combined with extreme speed can weaponize even the most 501 00:24:44,799 --> 00:24:46,359 innocuous object. 502 00:24:46,039 --> 00:24:48,079 Speaker 2: A tiny needle traveling at near light speed. 503 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 1: First, we have to lay out the physics barrier here. 504 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:54,160 Einstein's theory of relativity says achieving one hundred percent light 505 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:55,279 speed is impossible. 506 00:24:55,680 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 2: Right as an object accelerates, its relativistic mass increases, so 507 00:25:00,319 --> 00:25:02,680 you'd need an infinite amount of energy to reach that 508 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:03,559 final speed limit. 509 00:25:03,759 --> 00:25:06,160 Speaker 1: So for this scenario, we have to assume a highly 510 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:10,319 advanced alien civilization somehow gets around this, achieving ninety nine 511 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,039 point nine percent of the speed of light. 512 00:25:12,319 --> 00:25:16,279 Speaker 2: At that speed, the kinetic energy is astronomical. Again, it's 513 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:20,880 equals one half mv squared. Since velocity is squared, its 514 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,559 contribution is exponential at ninety nine point nine percent c. 515 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:28,400 Even the tiny needle carries kinetic energy equivalent to over 516 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,759 one hundred times of one megaton nuclear bomb. 517 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,160 Speaker 1: It turns a piece of metal into the ultimate weapon 518 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:33,720 of physics. 519 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:34,559 Speaker 2: Pretty much. 520 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,319 Speaker 1: Okay, let's run the first impact scenario. It lands in 521 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,519 a densely populated area, say Central Park in New York. 522 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,519 Speaker 2: The moment it hits the atmosphere, the friction and heat 523 00:25:43,559 --> 00:25:45,559 would be so immense that the air itself would turn 524 00:25:45,599 --> 00:25:49,640 into plasma, creating a blinding incandescent trail, and the impact 525 00:25:49,759 --> 00:25:55,119 instantaneous and apocalyptic. The energy release woul vaporize everything nearby, rock, soil, water. 526 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,319 The resulting fireball and shockwave would be massive enough to 527 00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:00,920 flatten buildings and rock nearby states. 528 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:01,880 Speaker 1: It would register as an earthquake. 529 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,400 Speaker 2: Locally, it would register as a seven point three magnitude 530 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:09,000 Richter scale quake, collapsing high rise buildings across the city. 531 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 1: Now, I often wonder about this. What if it plunged 532 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:13,160 into the ocean? What would happen? Then? 533 00:26:13,599 --> 00:26:16,559 Speaker 2: It would be a spectacular event, no doubt. The explosion 534 00:26:16,559 --> 00:26:20,200 would displace a colossal amount of water, creating a gigantic 535 00:26:20,319 --> 00:26:23,200 plume similar to the one scene during the nineteen forty 536 00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:26,839 six Baker nuclear test, would shot water two kilometers into 537 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:27,240 the sky. 538 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,799 Speaker 1: So massive explosion of water, does that mean a gigantic 539 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:32,599 world ending tsunami follows? 540 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:36,119 Speaker 2: Counterintuitively, no, or at least not the kind of tsunami 541 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:37,279 we saw in two thousand and four. 542 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,759 Speaker 1: Okay, explain that difference. Why wouldn't one hundred megaton explosion 543 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:42,480 create a massive wave? 544 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:47,079 Speaker 2: Megasunamis require geological shifts, a large vertical displacement of the 545 00:26:47,079 --> 00:26:50,559 seabed over a vast area, usually from underwater earthquakes or 546 00:26:50,599 --> 00:26:54,799 massive landslides. Those processes transfer energy efficiently through the entire 547 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:56,079 column of water. 548 00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,839 Speaker 1: Whereas a single point kinetic explosion a single. 549 00:26:58,559 --> 00:27:03,920 Speaker 2: Point explosion, even one this powerful, creates intense localized pressure 550 00:27:04,279 --> 00:27:09,119 and a huge splash. The energy is dissipated mostly as heat, steam, 551 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:14,079 and localized shockwaves, not a sustained broad geological movement. Mother 552 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:17,319 Nature is still far more efficient and moving water across continents. 553 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 1: That's a tiny shred of comfort. However, there's one location 554 00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,759 where this needle strike would guarantee a global extinction event, a. 555 00:27:23,759 --> 00:27:25,839 Speaker 2: Direct hit on an active supervolcano. 556 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,839 Speaker 1: This is the ultimate purely physics driven extinction. 557 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:32,119 Speaker 2: The needle strike would breach the Earth's crust, releasing all 558 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,440 the pent up magma pressure within a massive volcanic system. 559 00:27:36,079 --> 00:27:39,160 The impact would trigger a series of cataclysmic mass volcanic 560 00:27:39,279 --> 00:27:40,559 eruptions globally. 561 00:27:40,279 --> 00:27:42,079 Speaker 1: So we're talking about an event on the scale of 562 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,319 the Toba eruptions seventy four thousand years ago, which nearly 563 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:46,480 wiped out humanity. 564 00:27:46,599 --> 00:27:50,559 Speaker 2: In this hypervelocity scenario, volcanic ash and sulfur dioxide would 565 00:27:50,559 --> 00:27:53,799 be thrown miles high into the atmosphere, creating a persistent 566 00:27:53,839 --> 00:27:57,160 global stratospheric aerosol layer that would linger for ten years 567 00:27:57,279 --> 00:27:58,160 or more, blocking the. 568 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,640 Speaker 1: Sun, which brings us back to that decade long nuclear winter. 569 00:28:02,319 --> 00:28:07,119 Global temperatures plummet, crops fail, global starvation would be the 570 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:08,000 ultimate killer. 571 00:28:08,279 --> 00:28:10,960 Speaker 2: The only grim solace in this whole scenario is the 572 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,880 personal takeaway. If you were in the path of that needle, 573 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,480 you'd be instantly incinerated. 574 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,200 Speaker 1: Death would be instantaneous and painless. 575 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,359 Speaker 2: You would not witness the agonizing aftermath. It's perhaps the 576 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:25,000 most immediate total obliteration scenario we've covered. 577 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:29,319 Speaker 1: We've looked at external and physical threats. Now, let's examine 578 00:28:29,319 --> 00:28:33,119 the ultimate internal collapse, the sudden disappearance of the air 579 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:36,839 we breathe. A scenario where Earth starts losing one percent 580 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,000 of its atmospheric oxygen every second. 581 00:28:39,519 --> 00:28:42,960 Speaker 2: And this is terrifying precisely because of its speed. It's 582 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,799 not a slow change that allows for adaptation. This is 583 00:28:45,839 --> 00:28:48,440 an immediate physiological and industrial crisis. 584 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 1: Okay, let's track the timeline. Thirty seconds in twenty six 585 00:28:51,039 --> 00:28:54,200 percent of our oxygen is gone, leaving a sixteen percent concentration. 586 00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:58,160 Speaker 2: Physiologically, you would feel extreme exhaustion, a desperate gasping for air, 587 00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:02,480 like sudden high altitude sickness. But the immediate systemic catastrophe 588 00:29:02,519 --> 00:29:05,880 is industrial combustion engines. They need about twenty one percent 589 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:10,640 oxygen to function. At sixteen percent, cars stall, heavy machinery 590 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:14,240 grinds to a halt, and most critically, planes fall out 591 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:19,599 of the sky. The world's transportation system just stops dead. 592 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:23,279 Speaker 1: And since less oxygen means less fire. Electrical grids would 593 00:29:23,279 --> 00:29:25,960 fail as fossil fuel power plants sputter and die. 594 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,839 Speaker 2: Hospitals would face an immediate crisis. People with respiratory and 595 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:33,519 cardiovascular issues would die instantly as their hearts fail trying 596 00:29:33,519 --> 00:29:34,599 to oxygenate the body. 597 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,279 Speaker 1: Now, let's fast forward to the one minute mark. Fifty 598 00:29:37,279 --> 00:29:40,599 percent of the oxygen is gone, leaving an eleven percent concentration. 599 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:46,920 Speaker 2: This induces severe hypoxia, universal gasping, short shallow breaths, poor judgment, staggering. 600 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,039 Mass chaos erupts if people realize the air itself is. 601 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:51,640 Speaker 1: Toxic and what's happening in the oceans. 602 00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 2: The drop in atmosphere pressure causes the oceans to begin degassing, 603 00:29:56,079 --> 00:30:00,440 releasing dissolved gases, including oxygen. This starts killing marine life versly, 604 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:01,680 creating mass. 605 00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 1: Die offs, and at the same time, the ozone layer, 606 00:30:03,759 --> 00:30:06,599 which is made of oxygen, begins to deplete rapidly. 607 00:30:06,559 --> 00:30:10,279 Speaker 2: Exposing any potential survivors to harmful uv ras, though few 608 00:30:10,279 --> 00:30:11,680 would live long enough for that to matter. 609 00:30:11,799 --> 00:30:14,240 Speaker 1: By the two minute mark, seventy percent of the oxygen 610 00:30:14,319 --> 00:30:17,640 is gone, a mere six percent concentration is left. 611 00:30:17,759 --> 00:30:22,559 Speaker 2: At this point, you have mass fainting unconsciousness, faces turn 612 00:30:22,599 --> 00:30:23,279 ash colored. 613 00:30:23,519 --> 00:30:27,599 Speaker 1: But the sources also explore the absolute extreme, the ultimate 614 00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:31,480 wipeout scenario, not just losing the atmosphere, but the chemical 615 00:30:31,519 --> 00:30:34,720 removal of all oxygen molecules from Earth. 616 00:30:35,039 --> 00:30:39,400 Speaker 2: This collapses life in chemistry instantaneously. Because oxygen is the 617 00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:41,440 chemical backbone of the entire planet. 618 00:30:41,559 --> 00:30:44,480 Speaker 1: The human body is sixty five percent oxygen. 619 00:30:44,559 --> 00:30:47,799 Speaker 2: Every molecule, from water H two oz to the silicon 620 00:30:47,839 --> 00:30:51,119 oxides in the Earth's crust depends on those oxygen bonds. 621 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,440 Without them, water instantly becomes a volatile sea of hydrogen. 622 00:30:54,559 --> 00:30:57,759 Buildings held together by oxygen compounds would crumble to dust. 623 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 1: The Earth's crust would literally fall apart, that all living 624 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,400 things would become a pulpy molecular mess as the bonds 625 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,039 and our organic structures just fail. 626 00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,599 Speaker 2: Eight minutes after this chemical catastrophe starts, ninety nine percent 627 00:31:08,599 --> 00:31:11,319 of all oxygen is gone. The planet is chemically destroyed. 628 00:31:11,359 --> 00:31:12,440 There's no coming back from that. 629 00:31:12,599 --> 00:31:14,880 Speaker 1: But in the slightly less horrific scenario where only the 630 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:18,759 atmosphere disappears, there are a handful of biological survival specialists. 631 00:31:19,039 --> 00:31:22,400 Speaker 2: The infamous cockroach, which can survive up to forty minutes 632 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:26,599 without oxygen. More impressively, the naked mole rat can survive 633 00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,559 up to eighteen minutes using anaerobic metabolism. 634 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,680 Speaker 1: And then there are the true specialists, facultative anaerobes. 635 00:31:33,079 --> 00:31:37,799 Speaker 2: These are organisms like yeasts, some bacteria, bristleworms, things that 636 00:31:37,839 --> 00:31:41,960 can switch their metabolic process from oxygen respiration to fermentation. 637 00:31:42,839 --> 00:31:45,519 These would be the key to life's potential re evolution. 638 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,000 Speaker 1: But even if life could re evolve, they're facing a 639 00:31:48,039 --> 00:31:51,759 non negotiable time constraint. The Sun is aging in a. 640 00:31:51,759 --> 00:31:55,200 Speaker 2: Mere six hundred million years, its luminosity will increase by 641 00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,359 six percent, raising temperatures high enough to trigger a runaway 642 00:31:58,359 --> 00:32:02,039 greenhouse effect and eventually evaporate the oceans. Life would have 643 00:32:02,079 --> 00:32:03,200 to adapt all over again. 644 00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,720 Speaker 1: Finally, let's turn to the last great systemic threat, the 645 00:32:06,799 --> 00:32:10,559 loss of our orbital stability, specifically the Moon colliding with Earth. 646 00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:13,039 This is a scenario where the Moon starts heading toward 647 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:14,240 us over the course of a year. 648 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,079 Speaker 2: The clock starts ticking about three hundred days out when 649 00:32:17,079 --> 00:32:19,519 the Moon is two hundred and fifty thousand kilometers away. 650 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:23,400 Even at this distance, the tidal forces would increase dramatically 651 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,960 high tides rising up to five meters, instantly flooding coastal cities. 652 00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,960 Speaker 1: By two hundred days, the tides are reaching staggering heights 653 00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:35,319 of thirty meters. Coastal infrastructure collapses completely, and at the 654 00:32:35,319 --> 00:32:39,119 same time, the gravitational pull is putting an unimaginable strain 655 00:32:39,319 --> 00:32:40,279 on Earth's crust. 656 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,400 Speaker 2: That increased tidal force on the mantle leads to worldwide 657 00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:47,240 earthquakes and hypervolcanic eruptions. The Pacific Ring of Fire would 658 00:32:47,319 --> 00:32:48,920 become intensely active, But. 659 00:32:48,839 --> 00:32:52,079 Speaker 1: The sources offer a final astonishing twist that avoids a 660 00:32:52,119 --> 00:32:56,119 total hard collision, the Roch limit. Explain the roach limit. 661 00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,200 Speaker 2: It's the point where the tidal force is exerted by 662 00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:01,680 a massive body, In this case, Earth overcome the self 663 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:05,640 gravity holding a smaller body, the Moon together. For us, 664 00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,039 that limit is about eighteen thousand kilometers away. Before the 665 00:33:09,079 --> 00:33:11,720 Moon can hit us, Earth's gravity fights. 666 00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:13,599 Speaker 1: Back, so the Moon would rupture and disintegrate. 667 00:33:13,759 --> 00:33:16,759 Speaker 2: You'd be shattered into a colossal ring of debris, from 668 00:33:16,839 --> 00:33:20,680 tiny dust particles to asteroid sized rocks. We'd get a 669 00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,359 stunning chaotic ring system, just like Saturn. 670 00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:26,319 Speaker 1: But the consequences of that beautiful ring would be devastating. 671 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:31,440 Speaker 2: First, frequent intense meteor showers of moon debris would rain 672 00:33:31,559 --> 00:33:35,720 down everywhere. Second, the debris would block out significant sunlight, 673 00:33:36,079 --> 00:33:40,440 affecting photosynthesis and causing immediate global cooling, maybe an eight 674 00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:42,000 degree celsius drop, and. 675 00:33:42,039 --> 00:33:43,920 Speaker 1: All our communication systems would be gone. 676 00:33:44,079 --> 00:33:47,200 Speaker 2: Satellites would be pulverized by the thousands of rocks in 677 00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:50,319 the ring, no GPS, no Internet, nothing. 678 00:33:50,039 --> 00:33:52,480 Speaker 1: And finally, space travel would end completely. 679 00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:56,359 Speaker 2: The Ring system would be an impenetrable high velocity barrier. 680 00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,839 Humanity would be permanently grounded, facing a frozen, dark planet 681 00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,519 with destroyed infrastructure, a true orbital cage. 682 00:34:04,759 --> 00:34:07,480 Speaker 1: We have covered an astonishing breath of catastrophe today, the 683 00:34:07,519 --> 00:34:10,199 high velocity punch of a seven billion year old comet, 684 00:34:10,519 --> 00:34:14,239 the agonizing collapse of our atmosphere, the instantaneous erasure by 685 00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:16,519 a black hole, and the orbital locked down from a 686 00:34:16,559 --> 00:34:17,199 shattered Moon. 687 00:34:17,599 --> 00:34:20,440 Speaker 2: These scenarios, while designed to push the limits of fear, 688 00:34:20,679 --> 00:34:23,920 they provide incredible insight into the physics that governs our universe. 689 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,159 We see the greatest threats involve the quadratic increase of 690 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:31,119 energy with velocity, the delicate balance of planetary chemistry, and 691 00:34:31,159 --> 00:34:32,920 the overwhelming power of gravity. 692 00:34:33,119 --> 00:34:35,920 Speaker 1: We can take a slight, almost perverse comfort in the 693 00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,360 fact that the most extreme threats, like the light speed 694 00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:42,920 needle or the chemical removal of oxygen, are either impossible 695 00:34:43,119 --> 00:34:44,519 or highly improbable. 696 00:34:44,639 --> 00:34:47,480 Speaker 2: But the underlying science, the rate of ice melt, the 697 00:34:47,519 --> 00:34:50,960 effect of rogue objects, the kinetic energy of ISOs is 698 00:34:51,199 --> 00:34:55,079 very real. Humanity has proven itself remarkably good at two things, 699 00:34:55,679 --> 00:34:57,880 creating disasters and surviving them. 700 00:34:58,079 --> 00:34:59,880 Speaker 1: So we want to leave you with one final, deeply 701 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:03,440 the unsettling thought experiment that draws on everything we've just discussed. 702 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,880 If you had to choose between two guaranteed scenarios for 703 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:07,639 the end of the world. 704 00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:13,119 Speaker 2: Scenario A an instantaneous, painless obliteration like that point zero 705 00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,480 zero four second black hole core collapse we described, he 706 00:35:16,559 --> 00:35:19,039 simply ceased to exist before your brain could register it. 707 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:23,199 Speaker 1: Or Scenario B, a year long conscious countdown. You know 708 00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,039 the end is coming from the slow creep of a 709 00:35:25,079 --> 00:35:28,039 lunar collision or the certainty of a volcanic winter. It 710 00:35:28,079 --> 00:35:30,840 allows you to prepare to say goodbye and to witness 711 00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,320 the slow, agonizing collapse of civilization. 712 00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:37,760 Speaker 2: Instant painless obliteration or the year long conscious countdown. What 713 00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:39,119 is your stand on that choice. 714 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:40,800 Speaker 1: We want to know what you think. Let us know 715 00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,519 in the comments below. Thank you for joining us for 716 00:35:43,599 --> 00:35:45,159 this edition of Thrilling Threads.