Speaker 1: You're lie.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is wager Talk Today. I am your host, ay
Leg It's Thursday. And when I say we got a
jam pack show, I mean jam packed show. We got
Geohnny with the Steam Report, Dave Mason for bet Online's
gonna join us, Steve Merrill is gonna join us for
Rays and Red Sox, and then somehow he's going to
do a segment that involves Hussein Bolt and Joey Chestnut.
Stay tuned for that. Nick Parts is gonna give out
a CFL pick. I believe his pick cast easily last week.
And then Kylie Anthony's gonna join us and break down
a couple of UFC fights. All right, before we get
into it, we're gonna do something here. We've been playing
the game where we pick a game and you had
to tell us the winner and get the correct score.
We're gonna try something a little different. It's the summer
of trying things after the show. Put in the comments section,
so not in the live chat. In the comment section,
put your wager Talk user name and your best bet
for the day, and we're gonna randomly pick some people
to get a three day flex pass, So wager talk,
use your name your best bet. We're gonna randomly pick
a winner. Put that in the comments section right after
the show. While we're doing that, hit the like button.
Let's bring on Gianni, Gianni.
Speaker 3: Happy Thursday.
Speaker 2: Here, let's do Steam report real quick and then we'll
we'll get get a little UFC in for me because
I know you're not going to be here tomorrow.
Speaker 3: Happy Thursday. How are you, sir?
Speaker 4: Thank you brother.
Speaker 5: Slow day, slow day so far today, but big fire.
NBA Summer League gave out three plays already to subscribers
aside a money line and a total. I'll give you
the side right now for guys out there is a
three percent play on New Orleans, New Orleans plus the
seven New Orleans plus the seven over Minnesota that's in
the Summer League.
Speaker 4: Maybe sprinkle a little.
Speaker 5: Something on that Minnesota on that New Orleans money line
at plus two hundred, just throwing it out there. But
the plus seven three percent play for subscribers follow or fade,
just letting you know what we bet in the NBA. Sorry,
NBA Summer League. Otherwise, just a little bit of baseball.
Slow so far, but it'll pick up. Thursdays are always
like that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, any big notice and any big things you
notice with the steam report. The only one I really
noticed is that WNBA line, and that's all because of
Asia Wilson. So be careful if you're betting the Aces.
I know, I saw that huge aces opened up minus
one Washington's minus three. Asia got hurt last night with
a wrist injury, so make sure you're checking starting lineups.
She's a game time decision. My guess is she probably
doesn't play, so be careful with that game. Make sure
you know the starting lineups in that one. So what
else have you noticed? Steam report, Johnny?
Speaker 4: Major League Baseball? Couple signs for you coin flip.
Speaker 5: Games, uh nine fifty eight Yankees at even money, nine
to sixty four, La Angels at even money. Also they're
now favorites nine sixty seven the Cubs minus one ten.
So that's Yankees, La Angels, and the Cubs all right
around that coin flip price and the Chalk nine sixty nine,
the Braves again on Atlanta, and also the over once
again in the Braves over ten all the way up
the minus one thirty, So Yankees, Angels, Cobs, Braves, and
the over in the Braves game. There were somebody overnights
and some of the stuff that got hit early in
the morning so far, but again, Thursday is usually a
little bit slower till later in the day and it's
you know, the travel day for baseball as well. So
getting ready for this weekend though, a lot going on.
Speaker 2: Brent says he just watched that Summer League bounce up.
Do you think there was line manipulation. I'll get your
take on that, Johnny. My guess is there's just not
a lot of action on this so it doesn't take
very much to move to move lines with things like that.
You'll see that in some of the smaller markets that
just a little bit of money will make make pretty
aggressive line moves.
Speaker 3: What's your take.
Speaker 5: Yeah, we got bad off, Like you know, Minnesota got
bad off from four and a half.
Speaker 4: And that's why I always try to.
Speaker 5: Stress be careful of those overnights because the the overnight
on Minnesota opened at four and a half, and I
can tell you to go from four and a half
to seven doesn't take a lot of money like I have.
For example, I have an account in Canada that I
have to use the VPN for and they're a skin
of pinnacle. Okay, well they've realized that this account is sharp.
The only thing I use it for is MMA from
one of my originators and for the sharper stuff that
I know. They're then going to bet on screen because
they're going to move the line. So anyway, to make
a long story short, if I bet just to some limits.
Overnights are like two hundred dollars, The most ever are
is five hundred dollars.
Speaker 4: For five hundred dollars.
Speaker 5: Max, I could make that line move from minus four
and a half the minus five and a half or
six with maybe one thousand dollars fifteen hundred max. And
now at seven this morning, I could get down you know,
five ten thousand pretty quickly with a couple you know,
clicks of my mouse. So where the night before I
can't do that. So it just goes to show you
got to be careful with a lot of those overnight
line moves, because that's a perfect example. Like again, if
you have Minnesota minus four and a half in your pocket,
it's obviously a good bet because you're looking it got
to as high as seven. It's probably gonna go off
at six, So you still got a good bet, but
that was just early manipulation being bet up. And the
real hit came this morning on New Orleans at plus
seven and even some seven and a half, So I
know got picked off that you know couple that moved
it higher than they should have.
Speaker 4: But that's what I talked about before.
Speaker 5: In NBA Summer League, the lines move very quickly once
information is confirmed, lines and they bet lines move very quickly,
but there's a lot of setting up and a lot
of manipulation just because there's not recreational money on the
other side, so they're not able to write, you know,
the other team. They're just writing one side more or less,
and it's the sharp side. I mean, unless you're going
to NBA Summer League, you're probably not betting it. And
if you watch the crowd in those games, it's not
like that that pack, So they're not getting much recreational
betters at all. It's more like sharps versus the books.
And as I've explained here so many times, when that's
the case, there's a lot of manipulation going on. Yeah,
and they're not writing anything else on the other side.
Speaker 2: Real quick, your take on the Dodgers, they just dip
below sixty percent on their win percentage fifty six and
thirty eight. That's fifty nine point six, not way below
sixty percent. But we talk about these waves. I like
that we're following these teams, you know, throughout the season,
so they're obviously slumping a little bit. I know Teddy's
I know Teddy Cover has been doing a good job
picking his spots and betting against him. Pretty soon, it's
about time to come back on them, correct.
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, because right now they're right about where they
should be, the Dodgers, and when you look, look where
are We're not even at the All Star break.
Speaker 4: Bro, We're not even at the All Star break.
Speaker 5: And only one team, one team, when you look at
today's standings.
Speaker 4: Has one sixty or higher six zero or higher. Only
one team.
Speaker 5: That's the Detroit Tigers. I was screaming that from April.
I was screaming that in May, that that just what's
going to happen. It's not like I'm a profit or
a psych kick. It's just every single year, the same
thing happens. These guys play one hundred and sixty plus games.
They're going to regress and progress towards the mean and
there's not a single team out there who's means hired
in sixty five percent or lower than twenty five percent.
They're all going to be somewhere in the middle there,
you know, between thirty and sixty. That's the difference between
first place and last place pretty much in Major League
Baseball every single year.
Speaker 4: But now we start looking at that flip side.
Speaker 5: I like what you mentioned that some of those teams
that we do expect, you know, to do a little
bit better that had been running bad. You know, you
look at a team like Atlanta. Atlanta for example, this
is a team when the season is finished, should be
about five hundred, you know, and right now we're winning about.
Speaker 4: What forty four forty three percent?
Speaker 3: Yeah, just just for you.
Speaker 5: Want to be looking the back, they're about nine ten
games below where they should be right now based on
run scored runs allowed. A team like that should have
won more games already. So like that's a team that
you want to be looking to back, a team like Atlanta. Look,
we've been on Atlanta, I think two of the last
three nights betting Atlanta. So this works throughout the entire season,
and again it's not going to happen overnight, but you
want to be able to wake up every morning every Monday,
forgive me and write down two three five teams that
you look for spots to fade, two three five teams
that you look for sides to back, and then you
handicap individual matchups and you look for those teams where it,
you know, it lines up, where you get more factors
to help you confirm bet or fade. I do that
with baseball every single year, and that's where I'm able
to come out with a lot of some of my
own plays where you know, I move for other groups
that they originate their own baseball. But that's how I'm
able to pick. You know, a lot of my own
stuff is simply looking for those teams that are going
to regress and progress. It works with baseball better than
any other sport because of the amount of games they play,
and anybody can do it.
Speaker 4: You know, you don't need a degree to.
Speaker 5: UH as long as you have good long term projections,
like if you trust the long term projections, and I
do because the guy I deal with historically has done
very well with these as My season win totals show
that the history of them, and I just follow it
and what it says it should do. They usually do
man And as of today, again there is only I'll
look right now because he sent it over, it's two
days old, but it's still pretty fresh. Yeah, we are
still only one team when the season's over. And I'm
telling you even right now, I will bet right now,
right now that Detroit, that Detroit does not win sixty
pers more than six zero six zero would be the
over under sixty percent. So fifty nine point six that's
not sixty percent, sixty six zero or higher. I swear
to you right now, I would lay mineus two hundred.
Speaker 4: Mine is two hundred.
Speaker 5: Since we're not even at the All Star break, I
have more than enough time for that team to regress.
I would bet you that when the season's over, this
Detroit team does not win more than ninety five games,
and five games they will be low sixty percent. They're like,
at that's the most games this team's gonna win.
Speaker 2: Right after you left, someone ask in the main event,
where where where we thought money would come in?
Speaker 3: I was like, yeah, probably Derek Lewis.
Speaker 2: That I wake up this morning and see Derek Louis
has taken all the money. Just give me, just thirty
seconds here on UFC, because I know we won't have
you tomorrow. Anything jumping off the page for you. That's interesting.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, here, here's what I can tell you real quickly.
Speaker 5: I'm glad you asked, because I actually started not just
doing UFC, but I sent two premium plays out the subscribers.
I sent four percent play and I even sent a
little part like here, here's the problem I have with
Derek Lewis. You know, he's been profitable as an underdog
fourteen times in the UFC.
Speaker 4: He's been a dog.
Speaker 5: He's come out with the money eight of those times,
close to sixty percent. So if you ever want to
back there Derek Lewis, this is probably the position went
to bet him in as an underdog, but he's just
in a really bad spot here. He's up against Tallis
to Shara, who's going to be fifteen years younger. It's
going to have a four inch reach advantage. The only
negative is the strength of schedule. But you can only
fight who's in front of you. And the way this
guy's been running through people, and the way he ran
through Tafa, I really think I understand why the betters
are on Derek Lewis. But I just think that's thrown
away money. I think to shera gets the job done.
I think he gets it done pretty easily as well.
And I dug deeper into that comane event as also
with bon Fiend and Thompson. And that's another situation. This
is coming from someone that looks the bet dogs live dogs.
And I'm comfortable betting a plus three hundred, then I
know I'm gonna throw out six out of ten times,
because again, if I'm taking a plus three hundred, I
know I'm gonna throw that ticket out, you know, at
least six out of ten times, probably six and a
half out of ten times. I'm comfortable doing that because
I'm going to bet every day for a long time.
So I'm looking for the long term. But if if
you're not, then again you know, dogs aren't the way
to go. But I don't think this is a dog
that's very live with Derek Lewis, I really don't. I
just trajectory of careers. He's at the end of his
career to share is at the beginning of his career.
The only thing is strength of schedule, and we've seen
Derek Lewis be a gatekeeper before and you know, finish
some of these younger guys. But I think to share
is just a different level. I think when this is
the setting, Yeah, I don't look like and I think
the same thing with the Thompson. I mean Thompson, he's
fought tough guys, but he's got one win man in
the last like four years.
Speaker 2: I know he's fought the killers. Steven Thompson hasn't. So
we got a jam pack show Jiotty Teller and what
you have up for clients up at wager Talking.
Speaker 5: Yeah, like I said that, the UFC package is already off.
There's two four percent plays in there already. More will
be coming. I've been working on that card over the
last twenty four hours. Going to work on it more
today and tomorrow I'll have the baseball card off. We
won again yesterday. We were perfect on Monday, we won
on Tuesday, we won again on Wednesday. So baseball's going good.
Just like I said, I can tell from beforehand how
they're running. They're running really good right now. And basketball
Summer League, there's a free playoff for you on wager
Talk on the free page. Anymore Summer League comes in,
that'll be there as well. Hope you guys do damage
cash some tickets, whether you follow or fage, just here
to share information, love it.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Geohnny, have a great weekend. You'd look at
your show tomorrow. Great offer right now, guys, we're still
running three days for just forty nine dollars for flex picks.
Speaker 3: You can pick your handicapper.
Speaker 2: You can pick one here, handy kapper, you could pick
two handy cappers, you could pick three handy cappers. It's
completely up to you. You've got the power to tailor
it to your style in your schedule. You can pick me,
then you can pick Teddy that, you can pick Johnny
or anybody you want, anybody you want at the websites.
Three days for just forty nine dollars. This is the
best way to try out some new handicappers. Try out
handicappers and sports that maybe you haven't met in before.
Get a good indication of what the write ups are
like and what their plays are like. So take advantage
of that three days flex pass for just forty nine dollars,
a twenty dollars save on this limited time offer. Let's
go all around the world give out some free plays
here kind of stuck up the joint on free plays yesterday.
Speaker 3: Let's get back, Let's get back on the winning ways here.
Speaker 2: So we're gonna go to the Rangers at the Angels,
We're going to go yes run first inning. Rangers five
and oher your fee run scored a first inning run
in four out of five games, and the Angels are
on a seven and one your fee run score the
first inning run in six out of seven. That comes
from Ralph Michael's links and the Sparks under one sixty
three and a half links number one defense in the league.
It's a weird back to back situation for them. Afternoon
games in the middle of the week. Yesterday the Murcury
only scored seventy one points or they only sport scored
seventy one points one hundred and fifty total in that game.
Links tenth in pace, Sparks only seventh in pace. That's
in the last four games. To look at the under
and then Drew Martin has athletics for su Braves under
sears thirteen straight shutout innings, strider back to back quality starts.
We're getting a little bit of an inflated line, probably
because the first two games of the series total was eleven.
So those are your free plays. Let's go to Steve Merrill.
We got Steve Merril, and we're gonna talk a little
Rays and Red Sox and then I don't know how
you're gonna combine who saying Boat and Joey chestnutt into one.
But I'm all years here, I'm all years here.
Speaker 6: Do you know where I'm going with that? By the way,
I was one? No, I actually I don't want to
hit you by surprising because I was hit by surprise.
Speaker 7: So I'm gonna hit Andy Lang by surprise.
Speaker 1: Perfect.
Speaker 2: Okay, let's take it that way. Well, let's go to
raising Red Sox. We got Bradley for the Rays, Bueller
for Red Sox. Buellers started off bunch of wins. A boy,
he's gotten torched. It's got a huge era this season. Uh,
pretty much straight pick I'm pretty close Boston minus one
fifteen Tampa minus one oh five with an over under
of nine.
Speaker 3: So, Steve, how do you see this game going?
Speaker 6: Bueller? You said, Buehler, He's been terrible. He has been
showing up to class. Unfortunately, Yeah, he didn't go to
pitching class because his ERI is pretty nasty. Six point
three ERA, and the season is bad enough, but if
you go back to this end of May, he made
a start on May thirty first, his last seven starts
nine point three e er. And you know, Andy, most
guys don't stay in the league when they have a
nine point three ERA over a seven start span. But
I've always said that that sometimes these veteran pitchers who
have had good careers in the past hang around a
little bit longer. We'd love to pick on Patrick Corban.
You know, he has been awful for several years. He
got a little bit of a new life this year
with the Rangers. Shortly he's coming back down to earth.
But Bueler looks like one of those guys four point
zero ERA in twenty twenty two. He missed all of
twenty twenty three, and he has not been the same
five point four ERA last year one and six record
six point three this year. As I mentioned, nine point
three in his last seven starts. The only reason he's
still in the rotation. He's still in the league is
because he's a veteran, and I just these guys hang
on a little bit too long. There's always one or
two guys a year that shouldn't be pitching anymore, and
it sure looks like Buehler's that guy. He was okay
in his last start against the Nationals, who'd been ice cold.
By the way, he gave up only two earned runs
in five innings. You know it's bad when you're saying,
give it up eight hits and two runs three or
three runs two earned in five innings is a good start.
But that puts an in perspective. I don't think anything
has been fixed. And while the race have cooled off
a bit, keep in mind for about a month's span
there in mid May to mid June, they were the
best team in baseball, number one in all offensive categories,
even number one in a lot of pitching categories. They're
two and two their last four, three and four their
last seven. Red Sox have won six straight, eight of
the last nine, and that's what kept us off the
car tonight is I don't like to fade hot teams,
but once again, I want nothing to do with Buehler,
so I would lean raising this one at a slight
dog price, but the best play is probably the over
nine minus one twenty raised team total over would make
sense as well. Buehler is good to give up a
handful of runs, and I think both teams get over
nine tonight.
Speaker 2: Nine times nine times nine.
Speaker 6: So his era is nine point three his last seven starts,
and the total is only nine on the game. I mean,
so the math works.
Speaker 2: Ferris Bueller's day off, the MVP of the show so far,
get multiple shoutouts in the same game.
Speaker 6: I've done that for years. I just I can't resist Buehler.
I mean, when anybody grew up in our era, Andy,
and you hear the word Bueller, that's the first thing
you think.
Speaker 2: Absolutely all right, Joey Chessutt you saying bolt the floor
is yours.
Speaker 3: I can't wait for this.
Speaker 6: So last week my life tip was go to the gym,
meet people, and I mentioned a retired friend of mine
who was in the seventies gave me those baseball books.
My CONTI got to hang out with the young kids too.
You gotta have balance, right, So I hang out with
the kids, I coach, I interact. It's sixteen year old
local track superstar Lucas Henderson, who, by the way, this
spring won the state title with his high school here.
Jamestown High School also was part of the four by
eight hundred school record, and he asked me my opinion
on this the other day and I hadn't even heard
about it. I thought he made it up. I'm like, man,
you're brilliant. I'm gonna give you a shout out on
wait youer talk today, because that's what kids live for,
as you know. But he told me this is actually
a social media thing. And I did google it about
ten minutes ago. It is all over the internet. So surprise, Andy,
you haven't heard about it. I hadn't heard about it.
It's Joey Chestnut versus Usain Bolt. And here's the deal.
It's a one hundred meter race. Who would you take?
Obviously Joey Chestnut because here's the catch. They each have
to eat a full hot dog before they run the
one hundred meters. Chestnut can eat a hot dog in
about three to four seconds, believe it or not. I
don't know what Bol can do. I've been told an
average person and needed twenty to thirty seconds. I think
Chestnut could half walk that one hundred meter race and win.
So it's not even debatable. So here's what I'm going
to propose, Andy, I'm bringing another element to this. What
is the over under. Were you saying Bolt would beat
Joey Chestnut after they each had to eat a hot
dog maybe a two hundred meter I think Bolt can
run that in like nineteen seconds. Chestnut is about eighteen
second one hundred, maybe a fifteen to eighteen second one hundred,
So he's at like twenty one seconds, maybe a forty
second two hundred with the hot dog in him. I
make the over under a two hundred and twenty meters,
Andy Lang, what is your hot take?
Speaker 2: I would I would take you saying Bolt in that one.
I don't think people realize how fast you seeing Bolt
can run compared to an average person. And I'm just
gonna go out on a lemon, say, Joey Chestnut is
not that fast.
Speaker 6: He's in shape, though I know he's probably for.
Speaker 3: Eating hot dogs.
Speaker 2: It is a little different than running.
Speaker 6: Now, they got to kick the hot dog down, Andy,
they got to keep the hot They can't have a run.
Oh well, that's my stipulation. I didn't read that anywhere.
Speaker 2: But okay, I still think you say Bolt could practice
eating a little bit and then get better. Give me,
give me, give me the professional runner in any competition
that involves.
Speaker 6: A right what distance are you making the overrun? I
think Chestnut in the one hundred wins easy. I think
he can rest that one hundred.
Speaker 2: It's too short of a distance, correct, Yeah, two hundred
give me you Satan Bolt.
Speaker 8: All right?
Speaker 6: Hey viewers time in below in the comments right, what
is your over under? Andy is saying he's taking you
Saint Bolt at two hundred. I'm making it two twenty.
I think two hundred's a really close number. That might
be that fifty to fifty number. Hopefully we'll see this happen.
Dave Mason set odds on. It is Dave coming on.
I went odds from bed online from Dave Mason.
Speaker 2: Oh, he'll set lines for just about anything we go.
We could get that. If they actually go through with this,
then yes, one hundred percent, Yes, there will be lines
on this one for sure.
Speaker 6: So I did, I did google here, and I then
read this. I'm reading this live on the way to
Talk Today USA Today article, Andy Lang. It says Joey
Chestnut responds to you, saying, ball, that's how big this is.
I knew nothing about it. I got to hang with
the kids more. It says, of course I do a
chest and I told us say today's sports and now
it's half there. Just like you know, we got Klay
Travis would take on what's her name.
Speaker 2: There's the there's the angelries, there's the angel the one
gorilla versus the hundred men, like that was.
Speaker 3: Every every few weeks.
Speaker 6: There's they mentioned that. My friend Lucas mentioned that right
after we talked about this. He told me the gorilla thing,
and I go, one hundred man would crush a gorilla.
Maybe ten or twenty wouldn't, but they'd have to work together.
The problem is nobody wants to be that that that
that sacrificial lamb to the gorilla. That is really funny
because that's the challenges.
Speaker 2: There'll be more than one sacrificial.
Speaker 4: Gorilla.
Speaker 8: Gorilla.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm many humans could he go through? All right, Steve,
what do you have about for clients over a wage?
Speaker 6: You talk got Baseball best Bets just gave you a
free play here. I got two strong best bets tonight
at wager Talk also a bonus free play. We post
a free play. It's always my last cut from the
best bet card, so it's a strong opinion. And don't
forget about the free videos as well. I'm going to
do a double video as well after this for some
more games this evening in Major League Baseball. So check
out two more free play videos two best bets on
my plage a bonus free play who Lots of Stuff
tonight on Thursday, Steve Merrill, wager Talk dot Com. Get
there quicker with shortcut WT dot Buzz slash sm and
while you're there, check out the rest of baseball from
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you get for free with the rest of the baseball season.
No promo code, need it. Steve Merrill, wager Talk dot Com.
Speaker 2: Steve Merrill, always bring the heat.
Speaker 3: Thank you so much. That was great and hot secs.
Great segue Steve.
Speaker 2: All right, one more mentioned guys, after the show is over,
post your wager Talk username in the comments section, not
in live chat, in the comments action right after the show,
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Try out some new handicappers for the rest of you
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Speaker 3: Forty nine dollars. It's the current special running right now.
Speaker 2: And if you haven't subscribed to the YouTube channel, we're
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subscribe to the channel. If you have it, make sure
you hit the like button on this show today and
we're gonna bring in Nick Parsons. We're gonna talk our CFL.
We get our CFL Fix of the week from Nick.
Speaker 3: Nick.
Speaker 2: Believe it the easy cash on your play last week
that was that was no sweat, So I also got
to congratulate you.
Speaker 3: That is the best jacket we've had on this week.
Teddy brought it.
Speaker 2: Ted Teddy always brings the heat with jacket. But I
love that jacket. That is my favorite jacket you have.
So talk to us a little about CFL. This is
a really good game we got going on here. I
believe it's the top two teams in the West. So
break down this game for us and tell us who
you like exactly.
Speaker 9: So, yeah, last week it was on Calgary and so
that was a rocking chair victory at home. Quarterback Vernon
Adams Junior finally broke out, had a big game. And
so now Calgary's on the road this week, they're in Saskatchewan.
They only have three games this week in the CFL.
So this is actually a look ahead play. It's not tonight,
it's for Friday Night. But yeah, I think it improved
Vernon Adams Junior and a tough Calgary defense, they have
much more than just a puncher's chance in Saskatchewan on
Friday Night.
Speaker 1: Andy.
Speaker 9: Now the Riders, they're four to oh straight up and
against the spread. The last time out, they beat the
BC Lions at home by a score of thirty seven
to eighteen. It was back up Jake Meyer who was
under center for that one. Quarterback Trevor starter Trevor Harris,
he was out due to a minor injury suffered in
a win over Toronto and the previous game. But now
Saskatchewan it has a target on its back moving forward.
It's the only unbeaten team so far in the CFL
after the Stamps beat the Blue Bombers last weekend. But yeah,
Vernon Adams Junior, he was great, but it was the
defense that stole the show last week. It didn't give
up a touchdown until the final two to twenty eight
remaining in the game, and the stam Peters have interestingly
only allowed forty points so far over the first, second, second,
and third quarters. One other situational factor which I think
is helping Calgary here is that Saskatchewan is coming out
of its bye week, so it's been almost three weeks
since Harris has been under center, and so I think
the advantage goes to Vernon Adams Junior and the stam Peters.
They're coming off their most complete game. Their offense is healthy,
and their defense is looking great, and so you know what,
I think an outright upset could possibly be in the
cards here, but official play will be to grab as
many points as you can.
Speaker 3: I love that. I love that.
Speaker 2: And tell us what you have going on at sports Memo.
I know we got a lot of cool things. We're
going to cash on the Calgary Stampeders plus five and
tell everyone about Sports Memo.
Speaker 9: Yeah, Sports Memo, So that's where you guys can find me.
I've been doing extremely well. I'm leading all sports right
now over the last thirty days, I'm nineteen and six
with my WNBA picks, I'm nine and five overall in
the CFL. I do have a few different packages up
and guys, yeah, when you're over at Sports Memo, definitely
check out some of the specials over there. It's changed
a lot, the leaderboards. It's so competitive right now. But
some of the different specials they brought over, the flex
picks over from Wager Talk also to Sports Memo, same
deal everything that Andy was just talking about there, but
just applied to the Sports Memo handicappers. We also have
five dollars Wednesdays where every kapper releases one five dollars pick,
and so they there's always lots of four and five
percent picks because they know lots of people will be
coming to check out all of those plays. And then
also fifty off Fridays, same thing as the Wednesday, every
kaper releases one package.
Speaker 2: I love it, love it great segment, Nick, Love the jacket,
love the pick, love the specials, Love having you. Every Thursday,
Nick Parsons over at Sports Memo giving out really really
good CFL plays here every week. All right, let's talk
to Dave Mason from ben Online dot ag uh Dave. Uh,
last week you had just gotten back for vacation and
we're pretty lost. I hope you got your feet on
the ground and you're you're you're you're back in the
swing of things from your cubicle.
Speaker 7: Correct, Yeah, I am.
Speaker 8: I mean it's it's slow here, right, it's it's uh yeah,
the slow season, you know, with digging.
Speaker 7: And I just heard your previous guests tell in CFL.
Speaker 8: So I clicked on there and see what was going on.
Ony much attention to CFL at kind of why casually,
but uh, but let's check it on, see what's going
on there. So so yeah, this quote unquote slow season,
but there was always something to watch and bet on.
Speaker 7: Though.
Speaker 2: I am in play with you guys right now on
a cricket play.
Speaker 3: So there you go, let's go cricket.
Speaker 2: All right, it is slow season. But uh, what's been
the handle like on baseball today over the last week?
Are people betting the usual favorites or have you seen
anything change?
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean handle's great.
Speaker 8: Handle's always good on baseball, and it picks up, you know,
I you know, definitely picks up in July as as
we're the second you know, the second half of the
season approaches, and you know, the kind of basketball and
NHL's out of the way, that's a lot of casual
you know, the serious guys are going to bet it,
you know, from opening day until the World Series, but you.
Speaker 7: Know, casual guys will a lot of them will.
Speaker 8: Put most of money on basketball indoor and the NHL playoffs,
and then once that is over, they'll put more of
their money on baseball. So you do definitely get that
extra boost in the second half of June and July.
But the action has been great. Last week was choppy,
you know, some good days and bad day.
Speaker 7: Favorites.
Speaker 8: Favorites are always the way to go in baseball with
the public. Yesterday it was interesting, Live was outstanding, and
then pregame was a loser, So that.
Speaker 7: Was an interesting little trend from yesterday.
Speaker 8: What was bad yesterday, Red's was bad, Red Sox money
line was bad, Phillies were bad.
Speaker 7: Twins are really strong for us.
Speaker 8: So it's been choppy, but the volume is good.
Speaker 2: Have you betting anything these days?
Speaker 7: Not as much.
Speaker 8: You know, I'm more of a football guy, fight guy,
but I don't really like anything on this weekend's UFC
card boxing match Tomorrow, something I like, I'm onna Serrano
buy decision even money. You know this is this is
their trilogy fight. She's lost to previous two and she's
still a minus two hundred favorite. First fight was put decision,
that second fight was on that horrible Jake Paul Tyson card.
I mean, this fight was awesome, the women's fight was awesome.
The Jake Paul Tyson fight was a frigging joke as
we remember.
Speaker 7: But she, you know, I thought she won that fight.
Speaker 8: Taylor was accused of fighting dirty headbutts whatever. So I'm
taking Serrano even money to go to win by decision.
I don't want to lay the two to one. I
don't want to lay minus two hundred, and I think
that's a little off minus two hundred to win, but
even money to win by decision, especially when you know
they they've gone decision the previous two fights, and you
know the women's fights usually do go to the decision,
So I think those odds are off a little bit.
So Amanas Toronto be a decision even money.
Speaker 2: Any liabilities for you this weekend boxing UFC anything. We
normally play beat Dave Mason, but it's kind of seems
seems slow.
Speaker 3: This uh this time of year.
Speaker 8: Right, Well, first I'll give you some sharp UFC if
that's all right.
Speaker 7: Let's see what have we got here.
Speaker 8: We have a'sult sorts of sharp and TEX share of
minus two to sixty. You're better top of minus one sixty,
Cht minus one thirty five, Griffin over two and a
half minus two twenty five what is that? Davis under
two and a half minus one fifty client under two
and a half plus money. As far as exposures on UFC,
let's see the biggest ones right now, nothing too big yet.
Speaker 7: The biggest ones right.
Speaker 8: Now, Melissa Martinez eighth to one, they're just lottery tickets, right.
Speaker 7: What else here? Gd I mentioned before minus one sixty.
Speaker 8: Gabriel bond firm, don fun minus four twenty five right now.
Speaker 7: Majority actions yet to come in, so we'll see.
Speaker 8: I think by fight time we'll be have a big,
big liability on Derrek Lewis. Right now it's kind of choppy,
but people that public will be taking him up plus
two to twenty five come come fight day.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I saw that line has come down quite a bit,
even just from from yesterday.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Dantro, what's to know from you?
Speaker 2: Any baseball sharp info for today that you can share
with us.
Speaker 8: Yeah, there's a ton and that's it's very dog centric.
Marlins plus one sixty four Yankees plus one or two
Red Sox, evens Angels plus one o one Orioles plus
one thirty four Twins plus one twenty one them one
Chalk Braise minus one forty one Love it, Love.
Speaker 2: It, Dave Bason, tell everyone about bet online and tell
everyone where we can find you at.
Speaker 8: Yeah, sir, at Dave Mason bol that's my Twitter address,
and then come on bet online dot ag while we're
getting ready for football. Of course, baseball is the main event.
We still have dimelines. A lot of books have gotten
rid of them. We still have MLB dimeline, so we
have some of the best prices and our odds hit
the board before every other book. So early openers plus dimeline,
so great value on our MLB offering.
Speaker 3: Love it, Love it and they take cricket bets if
you like me.
Speaker 2: So thanks Dave, appreciate it.
Speaker 3: Can't wait to see you again next week. Have a
great weekend, sir, Thank you.
Speaker 7: Take care.
Speaker 3: All right, guys, we're.
Speaker 2: Going to bring in Kyle Anthony. We're gonna get our
UFC fix in. So, I know we had a couple
of questions MMA locker room ANI UFC talk. Of course
there's UFC talk. We got a fight card coming up
this weekend. So Kyle, I thoroughly enjoyed the week off.
I gotta be honest, I baoughly enjoyed no UFC. But
we're back at it. I know you got a couple
fights to break down. Let's just get right into it
and start with the main event. We got Derek Lewis
and we got talison to share. Ah, what's your breakdown
on the main event.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so this one here, you've got talison to share here.
And yeah, he's got that shiny record. He's eight and zero.
All of his wins come in that first round, seven knockouts,
one submission, and he has done, you know, a fantastic
job going out there getting those early finishes. He comes
to the UFC UFC debut knocked out Justin Taffa in
you know, a thirty five seconds. So a great showing
from him there, and he does have you know, a
lot of the metrics are going to go his way.
Like some people were talking about the show today, you know,
you've got he's gonna have a five inch height advantage,
a four inchre each advantage, fifteen years younger than Derek Lewis,
So a lot of that does go for it. But
the first thing that I think you to look at
here is the strength of schedule. And I understand that
you got to fight who you're you know, who you're
facing and who they're booking you at. You know, you've
got a guy in Talson who's twenty five years old
obviously hasn't had the opportunity to face these kind of guys.
But this feels like a little bit like a too
much too soon for Talison here where he hasn't really
fought anybody. You've got Derek Lewis, who has fought the
elite of the elite throughout his career. Although he's forty
years old in the heavyweight division. That's not like ancient,
that's not like I mean, he's definitely towards the tail
end of his career, but it's not ancient. And you know,
we spoke guys like you know, Sergey Pavlovich, Cyril Gone,
Jayaltonnell made it a DC back in the day. I mean,
obviously elite level guys and That's the one thing that
you got to look at this here is that that's
part of it here where who they have faced, the
experience level. Talson's had eight fights in his career, Lewis
has had forty and at the highest level. And then
also the big thing here, and this is something that
I look at when there's heavyweight fights going on, and
especially guys who're banger who are gonna throw, big heavy
shots who are just gonna stand and brawl, is the variant.
I mean, you're talking to heavyweight heavyweights who are both
knockout artists. It's not gonna take much for either one
to win this fight. It just really isn't. That's why
you know that the total is where it is and
everyone's expecting knockout and this is a huge part of it.
But both these guys are gonna brawl. Both these guys
are gonna move forward, only it's gonna take one. They're
both gonna just move forward and throw. And I think
that's a huge problem here when you're gonna be laying
you know, you know, minus three hundred on a guy
that has not really fought anybody. Plus the fact that
I think a big bread flag on the talisan side.
If he's hittable, even though he has knocked out some
of these guys, all of them early, he's hittable. He
has been hit. He's very you know, you know, defensively
not aware, he has tunnel vision at times, or he
comes forward and he's just throwing shots and guys with
much less power than Derek Lewis have landed on him.
And yes, he's been able to keep moving forward and
throw shots, but he's not gonna be able to do
that against Derek Lewis, who is the UFC you know,
knockout king. So I think there is something to be
said about that overall. But I do think that the
last part that I think is possibly, you know, maybe
an angle here for Lewis is we've seen him go
for takedowns, you know, we've seen him take down you know,
Ty toe Vos. Even his last plight, he got a
take down. There are opportunities for him. I think that
is something that may he may look to do here.
He's got vicious ground and pound and if he wants
to mix it up and go against the guy that
has really no experience and really force him into uncomfortable positions,
I think that's what Derek Lewis needs to do here,
and I just don't like this price at all. I
think that Tylison has a future in the UFC. I
think that you he's gonna grow and over the next
couple of years get much better. But I think fighting,
you know, Contender series guys to Justin Taffan now fighting
Derek Lewis, it's a good you know, it's it's a
good matchup because they're both gonna brawl. But I think
that this is Derek Lewis here in this spot, especially
at this plus money number.
Speaker 2: Kylee Anthony, Now, we got to talk Chris Curtis and
Max Griffin. I don't know, we'll soon be kind of
falling off from Max Griffin here. You can't get submitted
by Michael Jason the third round and expect me to
want to bet on you against a striker who's got really,
really good takedown defense. What's your breakdown on Curtis and
Griffin here?
Speaker 1: Yeah, So you've got Chris Curtis here, he's a minus
three ten on the compan You've got Max Griffin, he's
plus two fifty. Now, this is the first time that
Chris Curtis has moved down to one seventy and over
six years now he had fought at one point seventy
when he was outside the UFC. He came to the
UFC short notice fight, he moved up a weight class,
and then he kind of just stayed at that weight class.
He was fine doing it, he was okay with it,
he was fine in victories, and I guess I'm sure
it was more comfortable for him when talking about the
weightcut and those kinds of things. But one of the
biggest weapons here for Chris Curtis is his volume. This
guy is a volume machine. He's going to push out
a very very high paced He's got fantastic boxing. He
mixes it up very well, good counters. He also has
really nice footwork, working in and out of the pocket
very well. And I do think that this is a
situation where it's going to be a volume game here.
And you look at Max Griffin, he is the complete opposite,
especially now you know he's thirty nine. You've got Chris
Curtis who's thirty seven. But you know, Griffin is just
a guy who just doesn't push really any volume. Matt
He'll come forward, he'll pressure a little bit he'll be
defensively aware of but he just doesn't let his hands go.
And he's also a boxer as well too, so I
think it fits very well with what Chris Curtis does.
But when you're looking at stats and you're looking at
how these guys both really fight, I think it is
very interesting that this really I think should go to
the scorecards. Now you've got it where statistically you've got
over the last three fights, Max Griffin has landed ten
significant strikes twenty six and thirty six, and those are
all in three round fights. Very low, extremely low. Now
you look at Chris Curtis over the last three fights,
he's landed one hundred and forty, one hundred and forty
two and one hundred and twenty four. Now one of
them was a five round fight, but either way, in
some of these three he'slanting one hundred and twenty four,
one hundred and forty strikes. He's just going to volume
out Max Griffin. Now where I'm going with the play
is the fact that I do think again, this goes
to decision, and you look at Max Griffin, he is
a decision machine himself. Whether he wins or loses, he's
a decision machine. Out of his last fifteen fights, twelve
of them have gone through the decision. Now, out of
his twelve losses, nine have gone to the decision. So
this is really where I think that this is going
to be a point fighting machine.
Speaker 7: Here.
Speaker 1: I think you're going to see Chris Curtis outlanding, working
from the working at distance, working his boxing, and just
really you're not going to have a lot where Griffin.
I don't see Curtis putting him away. I think Griffin
is tough enough to kind of withstand some of these things,
take the shots and get to the scorecards. So you've
got it at sitting around a minus one ten for
Curtis by points. I think it's a pretty strong number. Especially,
I think it is a very likely outcome.
Speaker 2: All right, they're asking the chat is asking about the
plants behind you, what strain? It's the plant.
Speaker 1: Twit Eva and Indocome.
Speaker 3: Don't mix them up. You'll take a nap you're not
supposed to.
Speaker 2: So all right, all serious, is Kyle, what do you
have up for everyone at wager talk?
Speaker 1: So this weekend we have UFC Nashville. I've got a
four percent play up right now, gonna be adding to that.
Have about three plays right now. Like Andy said, we
were off last week. We've got seven straight events coming up,
some really good cards coming up as well, some nice
pay per views. So we've got to lock in over
these next two months and check all my plays out
at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 2: Awesome work, great breakdowns, KYLEI, Anthony, everyone got a four
percent best bet going at UFC at Nashville. All right,
jam Pack show, Thank you so much for joining us.
We're getting ready to end the show, which means post
your user your user name down in the comment section
with your best bet. We're gonna pick free winners and
has always hit the like button really helps the algorithm out.
Speaker 3: And of course subscribe to the channel.
Speaker 2: We're almost there to two hundred and ten thousand subscribers.
We couldn't do it without you. We're gonna get you
ready for the weekend tomorrow. So thanks everyone for watching,
Good luck on your bets, and take care,