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Speaker 1: You know, about twenty five percent of the country, Carrie

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has a mortgage adder below three percent. About sixty five

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percent of the country has a mortgage adder blow four percent,

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and that is making for very, very unmotivated property owners.

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Speaker 2: You are listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where

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you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

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to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 3: And welcome.

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Speaker 4: You are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.

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I'm your host, Carrie lets We are doing a new

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studio setup here and let me know how you like it.

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Jason Hartman is on with me now. Jason, we wanted

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to get an update what's happening with real estate. You know,

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I don't think the stock market is going to collapse

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for a while like everyone's predicting, because money is rushing

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in there. And as long as the stock market doesn't collapse,

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do you think that real estate's going to collapse?

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Speaker 1: Definitely not. You know, three years ago, when the cost

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of money tripled, carry and we saw the fastest mortgage

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rate increases in all history. It really proved to the

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country and the world how resilient real estate is as

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an asset class.

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Speaker 3: I mean, think of it.

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Speaker 1: You take a credit based asset like real estate where

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most people are financing it, and you triple the cost

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of that money from those low COVID era rates to

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the highs that we saw, and the market still doesn't crash.

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It actually appreciates. I mean, I mean, who would have thought.

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And I'll tell you where all of the doomers and

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all the crash bros. As I call them got it wrong.

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Is they looked at housing affordability from the perspective of

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new people entering the market and they said, hey, housing

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has become extremely unaffordable. That means prices are going to

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drop and there's going to be a crash. Well, they

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were right that housing was very unaffordable and still is

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very unaffordable. However, what they were wrong about, and what

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they didn't consider, is all of the housing stock that

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was controlled by well over one hundred million people who

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had incredibly low interest rates and realized that their mortgage

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is not a liability, it's actually an asset.

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Speaker 3: Asset.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, like you say, and I say, and that

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mortgage asset. They didn't want to give it up. And

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I still don't want to give it up. And I

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predicted this very early on in the COVID era. You know,

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people can go back and watch my old videos on YouTube,

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listen to my old podcast episodes. They can hear me

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saying this. I did not, unfortunately, give it a name.

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The media later gave it a name, and they called

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it the mortgage lock in effect. And that's that's what happened.

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We're still experiencing it, and it is over time lessening slightly,

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but not by March. You know, about twenty five percent

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of the country carry has a mortgage adder below three percent.

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About sixty five percent of the country has a mortgage

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adder blow four percent, and that is making for very

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very unmotivated property owners that want to keep their properties.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, because unless you're going to buy your

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new home for cash, then you're if you're going to

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get a mortgage, you're going to if you want to downsize,

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you'll get half the house and it'll cost.

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Speaker 3: You more per month. So where's the incentive to sell?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you're absolutely right, there's not much incentive to sell.

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Those people want to keep their properties. They don't want

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to give them up. And you know, as I always say,

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the one ingredient, the one absolutely required ingredient for a

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housing crash is this. It's tens of millions of home

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owners who are in distress that become millions of home

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sellers dumping their properties on the market. And for the

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last three years and still now we have the exact

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opposite of that. We have tens of millions of homeowners

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who are extremely comfortable and have very low payments and

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very affordable houses. They are experiencing a very different economy

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than a new buyer entering the market. It's just a

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completely bifurcated thing. And that's why they won't give up

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their houses, because the deals are too good. They got

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to keep them.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, exactly, even though they might want to downsize.

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I've thought about it myself, but economically it makes no sense.

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And your paydown of your equity happens, you know, your

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paydown of your loan balance, your amortization happens so.

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Speaker 3: Much quicker with a lower interest rate, right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and with more time going by, and with inflation

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induced debt destruction my trademark strategy. So yeah, absolutely, yeah.

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Speaker 4: So if anything, it's it's gotten even more advantageous. But

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what about for the people who you know, have to

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take that six percent mortgage.

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Speaker 1: Well, six percent ain't bad historically, that's for sure. I mean,

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we got up to close to nine percent at the

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worst points of this, and the market still continued to appreciate.

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So it was the complete opposite of what all of

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the doom and gloomers predicted and what they said. But

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you know, we have a very significant housing shortage in

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the country. And if you want to put my screen up, Carrie,

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I've got some charts and things and maps to share

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with people interest. So you know, there's quite a lot

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of argument over how bad the housing shortage is. You know,

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there are different opinions different experts, and they range anywhere

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from a shortage a predicted housing shortage of one million

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homes to over seven million homes. So experts differ in

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their opinions of how bad the housing shortage is. But

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no legitimate expert says there is not a shortage. Okay,

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lots of you know, hacks on YouTube, publishing videos to

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get clickbait that say there's no housing shortage, but they're

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just wrong. That's just simply not true. Everybody that enters

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the market and looks around for property to buy can

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feel it. They know that.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 1: And there are less than eight hundred thousand homes for

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sale in the country right now, and you know, compared

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to what as I always say, well, there's about one

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hundred and forty million homes in the country and only

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slightly over one half of one percent of the entire

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housing stock in the country is for sale, and that

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is an extremely low number. The normal the normal market

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is about one percent of the housing stock being for

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sale at any given time. So inventory is very, very low.

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And you know, I believe the experts that say it'll

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be about seven more years, maybe six if we're lucky,

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until the market reaches an equilibrium where we build enough

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houses and the population growth has been slowing to where

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we reach a normal equilibrium type market. So look for

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that around twenty thirty two, maybe twenty thirty three.

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Speaker 4: So here's a question for you. Trump mass deportations. Close

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to a million have been deported already, two million if

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self deported. If he gets rid of fifteen or twenty

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million people, which is a stretch, but let's just say

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it can be done. Is that going to have a

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ileterious effect on the housing market.

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Speaker 1: Well, first of all, I've got to say, you know,

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there's a difference between my own selfish interest and what

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is good for the country. And I hope he succeeds,

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because we have got to clean up the country. America

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is for Americans legal people that have entered the country

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legally and not the process. Yeah, and done it right,

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and they should be getting the benefits. We as taxpayers

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should not be paying for, you know, fraudulent Somali day

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care centers or housing vouchers for illegals. I mean, the

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fraud and the it's just disgusting. I mean, you know,

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now that all this fraud has been exposed, I just

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keep wondering when Pam Bondi is going to start mass

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arresting people. But I just think she's like bought off.

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She must be part of the deep state, because it's

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mind boggling to me how she just isn't making any

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real dent in terms of prosecutions in my opinion, and indictments.

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But that's maybe another topic obviously. So to answer your question,

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you know most of those illegals are not renting, you know,

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primary housing, They're renting very low end housing, so that

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impact would mostly be felt by C class apartment.

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Speaker 3: Own owners and the low low.

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Speaker 1: End of the market. Now, in the case of Minnesota,

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you know, a lot of those fraud frauds for Somalis

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probably have really nice homes. Overall, it's going to be

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better for the country, and I'm all for it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, well, you know, but if it's a substantial number,

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then it's going to have an impact, probably in the

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lower end, like you say. But then again, Trump always

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says we want legal immigration. So maybe at some point,

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you know, we've actually seen net outward migration from the

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United States for the first time in decades, and maybe

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at some point two three years down the road, that

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trend will reverse because more legal immigrants will be coming

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into the country.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, hey, listen, I'm gonna I'm going to share an

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idea with you and your audience. And if I could

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get to Trump, I would love to tell him this idea.

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I did get to shake his hand once very quickly

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at Mar A Lago. You were there, and but you

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know here, you're you're all familiar probably with his gold

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card program where he's basically selling and and you know,

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migration through investment is a common thing. It's done all

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around the world. Many countries do it where you know,

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you agree to invest a certain amount of money in uh,

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you know, investments within the country, whether they be startup

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businesses or some kind of you know, sovereign fund or whatever,

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or buy some real estate there, and you you can

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get a path to citizenship. And so Trump has been

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selling and I think he's selling. I don't know how many,

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but you know it's started.

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Speaker 3: I believe.

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Speaker 1: Five million each what he called gold card for five

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million dollars. Okay, But here's what he should do, in

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my opinion, is he should just print the money or

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go into bigger deficits, I don't care what it takes,

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and pay these people to leave. Start by offering twenty

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thousand dollars and then go to fifty thousand dollars and

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some people will take the bait and they'll just go

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back to their own country. Okay, give them money, just

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pay them to leave. It's cheaper than ice and everything else. Right,

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But then but wait, then create a marketplace for US

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citizenship and resell those same slots to people for like

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ten times the price. So if you pay someone fifty

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grand to go back to Samali, which seems like a lot,

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right uh, and you sell.

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Speaker 4: That sunds like a bargain to me, Jason, it sounds

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like a bargain to me.

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Speaker 1: I agree, I agree. But you know people, a lot

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of people would say it's too much. Okay, But then

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you sell that slot to a Norwegian or a Swede

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whose countries are being ruined by immigration, right uh, you

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sell that spot to them for five hundred thousand, for

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ten times the amount the government would make money on that,

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and it would be it would just massively improve the

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country to have high quality educated people with capital, with ambition,

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with businesses, bring all of that economic stimulus to the

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United States. It would be a fantastic deal. You know,

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five million dollars is great. You know, a lot of

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very wealthy people will take that offer, and many have

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from what I understand. But if it was thousand, there

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you go, you'd get a lot more.

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Speaker 3: I'm ready, I'm going I'm taking it.

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Speaker 4: If he offers it to me, i'll go too.

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Speaker 1: Well, no, you don't need to take it. You're already

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a centizen.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's that I want the money.

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Speaker 4: I'll leave if you If he offers enough, Jason, I

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will definitely take the money and leave.

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Speaker 3: Sure, hey you can.

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Speaker 1: You can now lay on a beach in Thailand and

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enjoy life, you know.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, absolutely, I won't even think twice about it.

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Speaker 3: You know that.

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Speaker 4: You know, I love the United States. I mean I've

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been here in my whole life. But there are other

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places in the world where we could go. But you

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know the idea. Right now, they're paying them twenty five

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hundred dollars to leave, and they seem.

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Speaker 3: To have a lot of takers.

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Speaker 5: So maybe you're maybe some good auction, maybe have an auction,

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you know, and you got X amount at here if

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you go now.

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Speaker 3: But then it keeps going down. But once you put

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your name in the auction, you're going no matter what.

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And then we get even more for less money.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's that's the way to do it,

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you know, is just do that. I mean, you know,

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the ice enforcement and the SELFI deportation incentives and whatever,

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but like you really got to increase the incentive. Okay,

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it's just got to be a higher incentive. But then

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we sell those slots to winners.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well, Somali's eighty percent or on some form of

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public assistance, and I guess the rest are ripping us.

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Speaker 3: Off on fraud.

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Speaker 1: Yet yet people can't afford grocery prices and housing and

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healthcare and college tuition in the US. And that's who

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you're supporting. You're supporting these criminals. It's just disgusting.

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Speaker 3: It really is. Sounds anyway, did you feel good?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, in terms of you know, maybe you want to

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cover a couple other things. So I threw up a

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map year of the population change through domestic migration. Okay,

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this is just within the country, of course, and most

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recently South Carolina, Idaho, North Carolina have seen you know,

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just the most growth, okay, and those have been really

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popular state and then the expensive left wing liberal places

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largely I'm not really including Alaska in there, but New York, Hawaii,

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California have seen outflows, and so you know, look at California,

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lots of outflows of good people. That's unfortunate. Of course,

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this isn't as recent as the COVID era. If this

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were a couple of years older, you'd see Florida being

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the star state and maybe Texas being number two. So

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it's just kind of interesting. But here's some information on

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the size of the housing shortage and how people differ

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on this. And see that vacancy rates of for sale

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properties and for rent properties are historically low. There are

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not many vacant houses. And then here this is the

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rental shortfall. So the housing shortage consists of two components,

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rentals and for sale properties that people can buy. Okay,

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there's two components to it. And probably not a huge

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surprise here in terms of many of these areas where

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you see the shortage as being the most acute in

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the darker red versus the green where there's really no shortage. Okay,

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And it's interesting that you would have seen in California

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there being huge shortages before in these high priced areas,

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but that's just not the case anymore. The equation is

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really starting to flip and you see the desirable right

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leaning markets mostly with bigger shortages. So that's interesting. Now

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when you look at for sale units, okay, that's a

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little different, it paints a different picture. But here's how

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the shortfall looks there in terms of what's actually available

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for people to buy.

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Speaker 3: Pretty shocking, yeah, pretty shocking.

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Speaker 4: I mean, that's like got to be the biggest shortage

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since like after World War Two in the fifties and sixties.

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Speaker 3: Jason and I.

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Speaker 1: Would agree, yeah, and that led to a baby boom

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and a booming economy for many, many years. So it's

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it's quite interesting, you know. You you know, every everything

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that we deal with has two major value drivers in

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my opinion, scarcity and utility. How scarce is it, how

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hard is it to make new supply of the item

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the widget, and how useful is it? And housing scores

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at the top in both of those categories. It's super

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useful and it's very hard to create new supply. So

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it's it's it's similar historical proven asset class in the

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entire world. We my company, Empowered Investor, helps people buy

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properties nationwide. We've got some great free software people can

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get to analyze deals. It's called property tracker. Just got

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a propertytracker dot com. That and you know, just a

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bunch of resources for people carry you're super familiar with.

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Speaker 4: All of that anyway, Oh yeah, very and it really

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gives you a whole different perspective.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 4: Another shortage we have critical minerals silver, and that market's

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been bouncing all over the planet.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 4: Is there a parallel to a shortage in housing and

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a shortage of critical minerals like silver?

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Speaker 1: And you know, I can't say that there is, but boy,

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I have been watching the silver market. I mean I

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came out believe the meteoric rise and then it gave

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back a lot of that. I don't know what it's

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done the last week or so, but you know, I

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couldn't believe the correction.

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Speaker 3: So you know, I still in the eighties. Yeah, still

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in the eighties.

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Speaker 1: That's that's pretty good. You know. I started buying it

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at like sixteen dollars I think, or no, eight dollars maybe,

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I don't know, I can't remember. It was so many

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years ago. And you know, I'm into everything. I've got

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the crypto stuff, I've got the medals and you know,

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but real estate is really my favorite thing. Income producer

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of crypto not doing so good and surprisingly, you know,

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definitely not correlated with the fear trade of gold and silver, right,

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which is interesting because a lot of people thought that

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would be the case. You know, they'd run to bitcoin,

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that would be the flight to safety. They'd run to gold,

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that would be the flight to safety. But it's just

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not playing out that way. It's playing out more like

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a tech stock, I guess.

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Speaker 4: Because it never goes according to what expectations are. The

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market always stock market, investment paper markets always conspire to

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frustrate the majority of investors and lose money, right, And

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that's the way it works.

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Speaker 3: And these are on the long come.

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Speaker 1: Well, you know, as I always say, Wall Street is

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the modern version of organized crime. They do a great

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separating middle class from their money, for sure.

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Speaker 3: So true, they're really great at that.

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Speaker 4: And yeah, so real estate the formula still works, the

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heartman formulas still can make you money in the long run.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, you know, it's a The thing about income property

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carry is it's unlike every other asset class because it's

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multi dimensional. With precious metals, for example, the whole strategy

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is bilow sell high.

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Speaker 3: That's it.

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Speaker 1: With crypto, Bilo sell high. Non dividend paying stocks, Bilo

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sell high, that's it. Okay, dividend paying stocks, yeah, I

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get some dividends in between. But with income property you

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make your return on at least six ways. I mean,

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think about it. You've got income, you've got depreciation, tax benefits,

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you've got appreciation, you've got leverage, you've got mortgage paydown

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by the tenant, and then you've got my trademark strategy

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inflation induced debt destruction. All of those things are creating

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wealth for people with income property. You know, you can

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have a flat market, you can have a declining market

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in price and still make money because of the multi

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dimensional nature. You're not just dependent on one or two

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sources to get return on investment. You've got six sources.

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At least some would argue there's more than six, but

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six primary sources.

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Speaker 4: Amazing, amazing. And hey, maybe you got an extra room.

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You can't afford to sell your house, so you airbnb

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it or rented out to a border, or you have

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some extra property in the back and you drop a

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portable cabana type unit that becomes an income property.

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Speaker 3: You got.

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Speaker 4: Optionality is the point in many different properties, and you know,

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depending on where you are, class of property and all that. Jason,

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where do we find you these days? Where's the best link?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, my main website Jason Hartman dot com. Just my

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name Jason Hartman dot com. You can find my podcast

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on any podcast platform. Just type Jason Hartman. My YouTube

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channel type Jason Hartman Empowered Investor. You'll find me, and

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we're here to help people build wealth through income property.

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We've done it for many, many thousands of people for

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the last twenty two years, and we can help you

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do it too.

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Speaker 4: I met a lot of those people and mainly only

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good things to say. You know, everybody's going to have

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some loser investments in the portfolio. But if you stick

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with it, stick with the formula, it's proven. I know

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it works. It's worked for me in the past. Some

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of my biggest scores have been in real estate and

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scores that I know even intended to make. But like

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you said, inflation induced, the debt destruction, rising markets, demographic shifts,

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all of those things, real estate can really help you

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take advantage of. Hey, you got a question comment for Jason,

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Shoot me an email klat Kerry Lutz dot com. We

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answer all questions, post a comment on the YouTube channel,

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and Jason, thanks for coming on. We'll talk to you

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real soon.

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Speaker 1: All right, my pleasure, happy investing to you and your audience.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your

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solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,