WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:02.560 And walk on board everybody, and thank you for joining 2 00:00:02.600 --> 00:00:05.879 us for another edition of mid Rats. And as we 3 00:00:05.919 --> 00:00:08.480 are live today, I'd like to roll out my usual 4 00:00:08.599 --> 00:00:12.080 alter call. If you are with us live, go ahead 5 00:00:12.080 --> 00:00:13.640 and go head on over to the chat room. This 6 00:00:13.759 --> 00:00:16.800 is a free for all format. That means that Mark 7 00:00:16.839 --> 00:00:20.160 and I will will take all questions, well most questions 8 00:00:20.239 --> 00:00:22.440 in comments you may have during the course of the show, 9 00:00:22.440 --> 00:00:24.239 because we have our list of things that we want 10 00:00:24.280 --> 00:00:27.440 to talk with you about. But if you have better ideas, 11 00:00:27.679 --> 00:00:30.640 we already got Paul in there standing throw the cordette 12 00:00:30.679 --> 00:00:35.079 checking IDs and hey, besides that, we're ready to go, 13 00:00:35.520 --> 00:00:38.200 and we're not having a show next week, so some 14 00:00:38.240 --> 00:00:40.880 of the pre show stuff about the spooptacular, but we 15 00:00:41.240 --> 00:00:45.600 cannot go. Let the high holidays go have recognition. You 16 00:00:45.640 --> 00:00:47.520 know Mark I's speaking about you know what? The call 17 00:00:47.600 --> 00:00:50.039 today is free for all. And when I thought out 18 00:00:50.159 --> 00:00:53.200 because my neighbor has the eight hundred foot tall skeleton 19 00:00:53.280 --> 00:00:58.359 up in his yard. Now, all's Halloween spooptacular. But sometimes 20 00:00:58.399 --> 00:01:01.359 I think most all of our shows are kind of spooctacular, 21 00:01:01.479 --> 00:01:03.320 So I guess it was just the normal show. 22 00:01:04.200 --> 00:01:11.000 Yeah, the specter of evil looms large in our podcast. Well, well, that's. 23 00:01:10.359 --> 00:01:13.319 Why we always have things to talk about. And one 24 00:01:13.359 --> 00:01:15.560 thing that I brought up and I got a good 25 00:01:16.280 --> 00:01:19.719 the listeners would have heard a hearty laugh is yesterday 26 00:01:21.200 --> 00:01:26.120 was a rather sarcastic and sardonic anniversary. It's the one 27 00:01:26.200 --> 00:01:32.680 year anniversary of our ongoing conflict slash guarding the Prosperity 28 00:01:32.719 --> 00:01:36.959 Prosperity Garden where the on nineteen October twenty twenty three, 29 00:01:37.120 --> 00:01:43.920 USS Carney got the first birds away defending whatever needs defending, 30 00:01:43.959 --> 00:01:47.680 mostly themselves and others in the Red Sea. So that's 31 00:01:47.760 --> 00:01:50.760 another conflict we can say that has been going on 32 00:01:51.159 --> 00:01:54.599 for a while. It hasn't ended. That's the war we've 33 00:01:54.680 --> 00:01:57.719 had for the last year. And what Mark and I 34 00:01:57.760 --> 00:01:59.319 were talking about, I was like, well, let's roll that 35 00:01:59.439 --> 00:02:02.359 in to talking about the war that we might have 36 00:02:02.480 --> 00:02:05.680 in the next year. And if you haven't been paying 37 00:02:05.719 --> 00:02:10.719 attention to the last week with what's officially called by 38 00:02:10.759 --> 00:02:13.919 the People's Republic of China is Joint Sword twenty twenty 39 00:02:13.960 --> 00:02:17.759 four is they have as you would expect them to do, 40 00:02:17.840 --> 00:02:19.520 and as you would do too if you were in 41 00:02:19.520 --> 00:02:23.759 their shoes. They've turned the knob up, put the ratchet 42 00:02:23.800 --> 00:02:24.879 a couple of spots. 43 00:02:24.960 --> 00:02:27.280 It is doing some. 44 00:02:27.159 --> 00:02:31.840 Really interesting positioning and maneuvers around Taiwan. 45 00:02:34.000 --> 00:02:37.439 Yeah, it's it's it's fascinating to see how they've done this. 46 00:02:37.560 --> 00:02:41.680 They've been using coast guard ships, They've been using they 47 00:02:41.680 --> 00:02:46.479 haven't really put their heavy hitting naval ships out there. 48 00:02:46.560 --> 00:02:50.280 But their concept is if it's a blockade, they didn't 49 00:02:50.280 --> 00:02:52.479 call a blockade, they're they're they're looking at it, and 50 00:02:52.520 --> 00:02:55.479 this is this is the genius of their operation. And 51 00:02:55.520 --> 00:02:57.439 this is what we kind of discussed before we got 52 00:02:57.439 --> 00:02:59.719 started the show. But I'm looking at that and I'm going, Okay, 53 00:02:59.840 --> 00:03:03.639 if if I'm China and I don't want to send 54 00:03:04.439 --> 00:03:07.840 thousands of troops across the Strait of Taiwan, how do 55 00:03:07.919 --> 00:03:10.759 I make it so it's really difficult for anybody to 56 00:03:10.800 --> 00:03:13.680 do anything about what I'm doing. And I look at them, 57 00:03:13.719 --> 00:03:15.680 I go, well, there it is. You set up these 58 00:03:16.759 --> 00:03:21.439 coastguard things, you enforce. You declare that since Taiwan is 59 00:03:21.479 --> 00:03:24.919 really your territory and it's surrounding seas, are it are 60 00:03:24.960 --> 00:03:29.919 your seas? You declare that you're going to hould customs inspections, 61 00:03:29.960 --> 00:03:34.639 You're going to prevent bad guys from entering your waters 62 00:03:35.479 --> 00:03:38.680 Latti doa di DA and then you bring in your 63 00:03:38.719 --> 00:03:45.240 non military assets. Theoretically non military assets, your bear time militia, 64 00:03:45.719 --> 00:03:48.719 your fishing fleet, and if nothing else, you just get 65 00:03:48.759 --> 00:03:50.680 in the way of everybody that's trying to get in there. 66 00:03:50.800 --> 00:03:54.159 And the best case is you stop shipping into Taiwan 67 00:03:54.599 --> 00:03:58.520 and in that way you effectuate a blockade without necessarily 68 00:04:00.039 --> 00:04:02.879 to clary a blockade. And so my question to you 69 00:04:03.039 --> 00:04:05.280 was earlier and I'll ask it again now you're you're 70 00:04:05.800 --> 00:04:08.159 you're the strategy kind of guy. How does this look 71 00:04:08.199 --> 00:04:10.360 to you? Is it has a strategy given the options 72 00:04:10.360 --> 00:04:10.560 they have. 73 00:04:12.680 --> 00:04:16.560 And again I'll I'll caveat to apply about what I 74 00:04:16.600 --> 00:04:18.439 know what I don't know, but I can imply what 75 00:04:18.800 --> 00:04:21.160 I've seen. But yeah, it has a as an old 76 00:04:21.199 --> 00:04:25.000 operational planner. It just looks to me just playing smart 77 00:04:25.040 --> 00:04:28.720 because we think we know what well. He's She has 78 00:04:28.759 --> 00:04:31.680 said it out loud that he wants his military to 79 00:04:31.680 --> 00:04:35.560 be ready and they want to regain sovereign control over 80 00:04:35.600 --> 00:04:38.000 what they consider one of their provinces, the same that 81 00:04:38.040 --> 00:04:42.160 we would look at Maine, Hawaii, Florida, Washington State, that's 82 00:04:42.519 --> 00:04:45.639 one of their provinces. They just haven't regained control over it. 83 00:04:46.240 --> 00:04:49.399 And with that higher direction of guidance, I could see 84 00:04:49.399 --> 00:04:52.759 their planning staff coming up with, you know, three or 85 00:04:52.800 --> 00:04:55.879 four different courses of action. They could take a different 86 00:04:56.120 --> 00:05:00.560 different le everything from a the People's Republic China do 87 00:05:00.639 --> 00:05:05.120 their version of D Day, full scale military assault straight 88 00:05:05.120 --> 00:05:07.920 out of coss Fits, you know, do whatever you want 89 00:05:07.920 --> 00:05:11.360 to do to describe what is kind of interesting to 90 00:05:11.399 --> 00:05:13.839 look at if you or if you're writing action novels, 91 00:05:14.040 --> 00:05:17.079 what that would look like, all the way to something 92 00:05:17.079 --> 00:05:19.959 that would be really really low key, which is pretty 93 00:05:20.000 --> 00:05:22.360 much what they've been doing the last few decades, just 94 00:05:22.480 --> 00:05:25.600 with a little more emphasis, kind of like what we 95 00:05:25.680 --> 00:05:28.160 saw with twenty twenty four and what they're doing in 96 00:05:28.160 --> 00:05:31.160 the South China. See, we're just going to slowly turn 97 00:05:31.240 --> 00:05:33.160 up the heat bit by bit, but we really don't 98 00:05:33.160 --> 00:05:35.560 want to get in a shooting war with anybody. We 99 00:05:35.639 --> 00:05:38.319 had enough with Vietnam and seventy nine. We would rather 100 00:05:38.399 --> 00:05:41.879 just intimidate and bribe and corrupt our way to power. 101 00:05:42.279 --> 00:05:45.639 But in between those two steps is is kind of 102 00:05:45.639 --> 00:05:50.639 what you've outlined here. One thing that China has been 103 00:05:50.720 --> 00:05:56.839 very good at is they have continually and regularly using 104 00:05:56.959 --> 00:06:00.759 various levers of influence and power they've been. The number 105 00:06:00.759 --> 00:06:03.839 of nations out there that actually recognize Taiwan as an 106 00:06:03.879 --> 00:06:07.639 independent nation, and the amount of nations that can actually 107 00:06:07.680 --> 00:06:11.920 do anything about it is pretty much down to one us. 108 00:06:13.920 --> 00:06:21.800 By narrowing that, they've created the conditions where they can 109 00:06:22.000 --> 00:06:26.279 all of a sudden say that we're doing with their Coastguard, 110 00:06:26.279 --> 00:06:28.639 their maritime militia. They have enough units to do it 111 00:06:28.839 --> 00:06:32.680 without putting any of their warships to see. They can say, 112 00:06:32.920 --> 00:06:36.600 we are just going to be exerting control over our 113 00:06:36.720 --> 00:06:41.560 territorial waters, and we have customs requirements and inspections requirements, 114 00:06:42.240 --> 00:06:44.240 and we're just going to start implementing. 115 00:06:43.839 --> 00:06:44.879 Them in the waters. 116 00:06:45.439 --> 00:06:52.519 And if Taiwan resists, then they have a an internal 117 00:06:52.560 --> 00:06:56.040 security i e. Of policing problem, and they can very 118 00:06:56.120 --> 00:07:00.279 well go in front of the cameras and can just 119 00:07:00.519 --> 00:07:05.120 slow down any type of international reaction by making very 120 00:07:05.360 --> 00:07:10.959 objectively legitimate arguments. This is our province. Nobody recognizes this 121 00:07:11.319 --> 00:07:15.560 as an independent nation anymore than they recognize Hawaii, Chechnya 122 00:07:15.839 --> 00:07:19.720 are whales as independent nations. And for too long we've 123 00:07:19.800 --> 00:07:22.519 tried to do this the easy way, But this is 124 00:07:22.560 --> 00:07:25.160 our province or we're going to take it back, and 125 00:07:25.600 --> 00:07:31.079 they'll this course of action that doesn't involve large landing fleets, 126 00:07:31.240 --> 00:07:35.600 doesn't belong taking car ferries and fulling them up with 127 00:07:36.240 --> 00:07:45.199 tanks and armored personnel carriers. It's basically strangling slowly Taiwan's 128 00:07:45.199 --> 00:07:48.759 ability to sustain itself. And then the Taiwanese people will 129 00:07:48.759 --> 00:07:50.680 have to come to a decision point on what they 130 00:07:50.759 --> 00:07:52.920 want to do, and a lot of that will determine 131 00:07:53.000 --> 00:07:56.680 upon what messages and support they're getting from the US 132 00:07:56.839 --> 00:07:59.560 over on the eastern side. And the argument's going to 133 00:07:59.560 --> 00:08:06.319 be and the United States has not helped itself, especially 134 00:08:06.639 --> 00:08:09.759 with what we did in two thousand and three in Iraq, 135 00:08:11.639 --> 00:08:16.680 with our reputation internationally about interfering in the internal affairs 136 00:08:16.680 --> 00:08:22.240 of other nations, and China positions itself very well. If 137 00:08:22.279 --> 00:08:25.000 in the course of trying to exert what they believe 138 00:08:25.120 --> 00:08:32.039 is sovereign power over their territory and addressing police issues 139 00:08:32.399 --> 00:08:37.960 with violent insurrectionists on their territory, why is the US 140 00:08:38.039 --> 00:08:42.480 seventh Fleet coming west of Wake Island to interfere in 141 00:08:42.559 --> 00:08:46.679 our internal affairs? If they couch it well, they can 142 00:08:46.720 --> 00:08:48.720 be clumsy on the diplomatic side of the House, but 143 00:08:49.080 --> 00:08:51.799 I think she's been very direct about what he wants 144 00:08:51.840 --> 00:08:56.159 to accomplish. And if they're setting the conditions to do 145 00:08:56.320 --> 00:09:01.039 what you outlined earlier, I tip my hat to that 146 00:09:01.279 --> 00:09:06.279 is a really solid course of action. If you want 147 00:09:06.320 --> 00:09:11.799 to end this decade long story in a relatively short 148 00:09:11.879 --> 00:09:15.480 length of time without losing much face, without potentially going 149 00:09:15.559 --> 00:09:20.519 to war, or more importantly, not having to bomb your 150 00:09:20.559 --> 00:09:24.879 way through that island at all of its valuable economic 151 00:09:25.000 --> 00:09:30.679 infrastructure that is in place there. If your National Command 152 00:09:30.679 --> 00:09:33.960 authority says that we need to do this by twenty 153 00:09:34.000 --> 00:09:38.000 twenty seven, which I believe he said in one context, now, 154 00:09:38.000 --> 00:09:40.559 how do you prepare that over the course of the 155 00:09:40.600 --> 00:09:45.120 next two to three years. If this is roughly the 156 00:09:45.159 --> 00:09:50.519 course of action that they've chosen to take, I don't think, 157 00:09:51.840 --> 00:09:54.480 regardless of what happens on the US side of the 158 00:09:54.519 --> 00:09:59.799 equation of political wise, how the Chinese could not succeed 159 00:10:00.039 --> 00:10:03.080 if they're willing to take the short term hit of 160 00:10:03.240 --> 00:10:06.320 doing what they need to do with with Taiwan. If 161 00:10:06.360 --> 00:10:09.480 that's the path they're taking again, I'll tip my hat 162 00:10:09.519 --> 00:10:12.960 to them. That's pretty darn smart. And if you really 163 00:10:12.960 --> 00:10:16.360 back up and look at the big pixels. That's kind 164 00:10:16.360 --> 00:10:19.840 of in the finest traditions of China for the last 165 00:10:19.879 --> 00:10:21.960 few thousand years, when they're at their prime. This is 166 00:10:21.960 --> 00:10:22.600 how they went. 167 00:10:24.159 --> 00:10:25.799 Yeah, and I think one of the other things that 168 00:10:25.840 --> 00:10:27.679 we did to look at I mean, what does the 169 00:10:27.679 --> 00:10:30.080 outside world do? What would the US do here? 170 00:10:30.440 --> 00:10:30.679 Here? 171 00:10:30.720 --> 00:10:32.879 The I mean, this is a classic law fair kind 172 00:10:32.879 --> 00:10:36.399 of situation. You know, we're doing something legal, it's our territory. 173 00:10:36.559 --> 00:10:40.320 We're recognized internationally by many countries, and you know, if 174 00:10:40.320 --> 00:10:44.039 you attack any of our ships, then that's that's that's 175 00:10:44.279 --> 00:10:46.639 you know, that's war, that's that's the cause of bell 176 00:10:46.720 --> 00:10:50.039 eye for them. They say, Okay, you know we were 177 00:10:50.080 --> 00:10:53.240 we were doing this peacefully and and and well within 178 00:10:53.360 --> 00:10:57.720 our international and national rights. And we've you know, we've 179 00:10:57.759 --> 00:10:59.840 long let it be known that we view Taiwan as 180 00:10:59.879 --> 00:11:03.440 our territory, and you know, it just I think it 181 00:11:03.559 --> 00:11:08.240 creates quite the conundrum for anybody who's trying to figure 182 00:11:08.279 --> 00:11:12.279 out how to respond to it, especially if they haven't 183 00:11:12.320 --> 00:11:14.960 been if they haven't when they weren't awakened by this 184 00:11:15.120 --> 00:11:19.720 going on in the last few weeks. Because if I'm 185 00:11:19.759 --> 00:11:24.039 sitting somewhere promised to be any kind of great strategic genius. 186 00:11:24.039 --> 00:11:26.120 But I'm sitting in an office somewhere somebody walks in 187 00:11:26.159 --> 00:11:27.759 and goes, you know, what are they doing over there? 188 00:11:27.960 --> 00:11:30.240 I think I'd be going, oh my gosh, what what 189 00:11:30.399 --> 00:11:33.120 is our plan A and Plan B and Plan C 190 00:11:33.279 --> 00:11:36.360 for responding to this? Because there are a lot of 191 00:11:36.399 --> 00:11:38.879 options that don't look real good. Yeah. 192 00:11:38.960 --> 00:11:41.639 In the chat room, Paul and Camp brought up a 193 00:11:41.679 --> 00:11:45.799 couple of related issues. Paul said, you know what, how 194 00:11:45.840 --> 00:11:49.799 does this play into their moves against the Philippines And 195 00:11:50.240 --> 00:11:53.679 Camp was talking about India and Burma. He calls it 196 00:11:53.720 --> 00:11:56.440 may and Mar, but I don't call it Mayamar. I 197 00:11:56.519 --> 00:11:59.080 call it Burma because I'm just funny that way. Anyway, 198 00:12:00.120 --> 00:12:03.000 I think if they decided to do with that you 199 00:12:03.000 --> 00:12:06.240 and I were discussing with Taiwan, everybody else is going 200 00:12:06.320 --> 00:12:08.120 to back up. They're not going to want any part 201 00:12:08.120 --> 00:12:12.799 of that because China is already off her feet. I'm 202 00:12:12.840 --> 00:12:15.960 sure that she is. Even if they try to do 203 00:12:16.000 --> 00:12:19.080 the soft they'll have the Coastguard and the People's Militia 204 00:12:19.559 --> 00:12:22.679 out front, but they'll have their military at a high 205 00:12:22.759 --> 00:12:27.399 readiness force and they'll through dipic diplomatic means, says, you know, well, 206 00:12:28.080 --> 00:12:31.919 we'll work with our differences when we're done here. But 207 00:12:32.679 --> 00:12:34.600 everybody just needs to back off, and I think the 208 00:12:34.639 --> 00:12:38.600 international will back off because if you're the Philippines, India 209 00:12:38.879 --> 00:12:42.480 or Burma, regardless of what temporary issues you might have, 210 00:12:44.440 --> 00:12:47.480 Burma slash Maya and mar has plenty of internal issues, 211 00:12:48.200 --> 00:12:53.759 external issues that everybody's going to do that. Nobody, nobody 212 00:12:53.799 --> 00:12:58.919 wants to go to war over a island that they 213 00:12:58.919 --> 00:13:02.080 don't recognize twenty milli million people that as long as 214 00:13:02.120 --> 00:13:04.960 they get their semiconductors, they don't care what country of 215 00:13:04.960 --> 00:13:09.279 origin stamp it has on it. I think that the 216 00:13:09.360 --> 00:13:14.240 People's Republic of China has looked at it's timing and 217 00:13:15.360 --> 00:13:20.879 how it has prepared the international community space, the diplomatic space, 218 00:13:21.039 --> 00:13:24.159 whatever domain you want to call that, in such a 219 00:13:24.159 --> 00:13:27.279 way that they really wanted to have that twenty twenty 220 00:13:27.320 --> 00:13:33.919 seven date be valid. It's pretty smart, especially if the 221 00:13:34.200 --> 00:13:39.639 China Hawks in the United States have been primarily focused 222 00:13:39.679 --> 00:13:43.279 on a military response. What if there is no military 223 00:13:43.320 --> 00:13:46.759 response to something that is a law enforcement and an 224 00:13:46.759 --> 00:13:51.240 internal security operation by everybody's definition. Europeans aren't going to 225 00:13:51.240 --> 00:13:55.399 stand up for Taiwan. Japan is not going to stand 226 00:13:55.480 --> 00:13:58.919 up for Taiwan. South Koreans have other issues going on 227 00:13:59.039 --> 00:13:59.480 right now. 228 00:13:59.759 --> 00:14:01.080 They don't want any bit of that. 229 00:14:01.840 --> 00:14:06.480 The Vietnamese as long as nobody crosses their border, they're 230 00:14:06.519 --> 00:14:08.799 not going to do anything either. So again it goes 231 00:14:08.840 --> 00:14:14.480 back to how does it look for a relatively unprepared 232 00:14:15.320 --> 00:14:20.279 US military to sorty west of Wait basing out of 233 00:14:20.320 --> 00:14:24.000 guang And with anybody who does math knows that we 234 00:14:24.080 --> 00:14:26.559 really can't sustain combat operations for a length the time 235 00:14:26.639 --> 00:14:32.919 unless we're able to access the Philippines, Japan, et cetera, 236 00:14:33.159 --> 00:14:37.720 et cetera. It seems that this is not a bad 237 00:14:37.799 --> 00:14:42.399 time in the next twenty four months to be able 238 00:14:42.440 --> 00:14:45.120 to take that route, if that's the route they want 239 00:14:45.320 --> 00:14:47.320 to have. I think perhaps or may have been a 240 00:14:47.399 --> 00:14:52.639 period of time that maybe in the first decade of 241 00:14:52.679 --> 00:14:55.480 this century that China might thought that they might they 242 00:14:55.759 --> 00:14:57.960 there might be a way to unify the two countries. 243 00:14:58.759 --> 00:15:03.519 But I've seen people draw the line differently. Something changed 244 00:15:03.559 --> 00:15:06.240 in China around two thousand and five two thousand and 245 00:15:06.279 --> 00:15:09.960 six it decided to be less Pandamar and more dragon 246 00:15:11.000 --> 00:15:13.840 that they decided that probably wasn't the path that that 247 00:15:14.000 --> 00:15:17.320 was going to be successful for them. So they've been 248 00:15:17.320 --> 00:15:19.639 working on this path on their timeline, which they can 249 00:15:19.679 --> 00:15:21.320 do because they don't have elections every twenty. 250 00:15:22.879 --> 00:15:26.039 Yeah, I think the question about the about the Philippines, 251 00:15:26.039 --> 00:15:28.759 I don't think China cares about the Philippines other than 252 00:15:29.320 --> 00:15:32.559 it's proximity to Taiwan and and what they've done to 253 00:15:32.600 --> 00:15:35.360 the South China Sea. I mean you can talk about uh, 254 00:15:35.919 --> 00:15:39.159 you know, boiling the frog. They have. They've created a 255 00:15:39.200 --> 00:15:42.519 situation there where it's uh and we you know, we 256 00:15:42.639 --> 00:15:44.440 discussed this guys. I don't know the way first started 257 00:15:44.440 --> 00:15:46.759 talking about the what they were doing there, but you 258 00:15:46.759 --> 00:15:48.480 know they're going to present you know, it's a fielt 259 00:15:48.519 --> 00:15:51.039 the company. We we now control the South China Sea. 260 00:15:51.480 --> 00:15:55.320 We control everything that would be of any interest to 261 00:15:55.360 --> 00:15:57.679 anybody outsee because it's all our internal water, it's our 262 00:15:57.759 --> 00:16:01.159 nine dash line, and Taiwan is our terrritory. Anybody who 263 00:16:01.159 --> 00:16:05.279 invades this stuff is violating the international law by as 264 00:16:05.320 --> 00:16:07.679 you just said, I mean, they're going after our internal affairs. 265 00:16:08.039 --> 00:16:10.840 It's our territory. And they have the benefit especially with 266 00:16:10.879 --> 00:16:14.080 Taiwan where they have you don't have to have armed forced, 267 00:16:14.159 --> 00:16:16.080 you don't have to have your big navy ships out there, 268 00:16:16.320 --> 00:16:20.200 because you've got the coast, you've got all their coastal batteries, 269 00:16:20.240 --> 00:16:24.159 all the all the the the airfields, everything else, and 270 00:16:24.200 --> 00:16:27.480 the and the long distance missiles, which would be you know, 271 00:16:27.559 --> 00:16:30.440 that's everybody. You're looking. Well, I'm gonna send my fleet 272 00:16:30.480 --> 00:16:32.360 in there. Well, you know, what are you going to 273 00:16:32.399 --> 00:16:35.960 do about their d S twenty one's or wherever they are? 274 00:16:36.000 --> 00:16:38.360 And and and you know what are you gonna do 275 00:16:38.399 --> 00:16:40.919 about about the defense of Guam? And is it worth? 276 00:16:41.240 --> 00:16:42.919 This is where the question is going to come to 277 00:16:42.919 --> 00:16:46.240 the leadership of the West and the US in particular, 278 00:16:46.759 --> 00:16:50.240 what is it worth to challenge this if if they 279 00:16:50.240 --> 00:16:53.440 can't if they use this plan? What what? What is it? 280 00:16:53.799 --> 00:16:56.440 What's the what? At what point do we say the 281 00:16:56.480 --> 00:16:58.360 cost is too high to fight against this? I mean 282 00:16:58.399 --> 00:17:00.759 we've had this discussion with an number of guests on 283 00:17:00.799 --> 00:17:03.759 the show that that somewhere along the line you begin 284 00:17:03.840 --> 00:17:07.480 to weigh these these decisions and what what the cost 285 00:17:07.640 --> 00:17:10.720 is against whatever the benefit is. And you know, the 286 00:17:11.079 --> 00:17:13.680 way they've the way they've to me, the way they've 287 00:17:13.720 --> 00:17:18.119 been setting this all up, is that it's it's you know, 288 00:17:18.240 --> 00:17:21.240 nobody else is concerned, but theirs. And I, you know, 289 00:17:21.279 --> 00:17:24.200 I'm sure I'm not the only one that's that feels 290 00:17:24.240 --> 00:17:27.880 that this is an interesting strategy, but I see there's 291 00:17:28.039 --> 00:17:31.400 really a way to hamstring any kind of response against. 292 00:17:32.640 --> 00:17:36.279 And it's not like we're in a condition that we 293 00:17:36.480 --> 00:17:39.559 can really you know, build up for the fight. And 294 00:17:39.599 --> 00:17:43.440 this is something I'm thinking about right and on next week. 295 00:17:43.519 --> 00:17:45.880 Maybe i'll write tomorrow, maybe i'll write Wednesday, maybe I 296 00:17:45.920 --> 00:17:49.039 don't write at all. But there, and we've mentioned it 297 00:17:49.079 --> 00:17:51.640 a couple of times here, there was an inflection point 298 00:17:52.839 --> 00:17:59.599 that we are now spending and there's a scary as 299 00:17:59.640 --> 00:18:01.960 you know what graph out there that it outlines this. 300 00:18:03.000 --> 00:18:06.079 We're spending more on interest on our debt than we 301 00:18:06.119 --> 00:18:08.480 are on our national defense, and it's only going. 302 00:18:08.319 --> 00:18:08.839 To get worse. 303 00:18:10.279 --> 00:18:14.920 And the latest and I missed this on the first 304 00:18:15.319 --> 00:18:18.240 read of it, but the CNO's navigation plan that she 305 00:18:18.359 --> 00:18:23.000 came out with, which I it's it's a fine plan. 306 00:18:23.119 --> 00:18:25.200 I've seen worse. This is fine. 307 00:18:25.200 --> 00:18:26.400 There's plenty to work with here. 308 00:18:26.839 --> 00:18:28.720 But the one thing that's not so much what's in 309 00:18:28.759 --> 00:18:33.839 it is what's not in it. It pretty much admits 310 00:18:33.920 --> 00:18:36.440 that while we need and we want a larger Navy. 311 00:18:37.599 --> 00:18:40.519 They we're not going to get because there's just there's 312 00:18:40.559 --> 00:18:43.240 not going to be the money to get it. And 313 00:18:43.319 --> 00:18:46.920 I fully appreciate those people who they say, well, we 314 00:18:47.000 --> 00:18:48.319 just need to find the money. We just need to 315 00:18:48.319 --> 00:18:52.920 get the money because is what we require. That's fine, 316 00:18:52.920 --> 00:18:55.119 that's your opinion. I don't think that's that's very realistic. 317 00:18:55.160 --> 00:18:58.160 I think we have the reality of the budget being 318 00:18:58.160 --> 00:18:59.720 what it is. So if we're stuck at about two 319 00:18:59.799 --> 00:19:04.480 nine and a high percentage of that are platforms like 320 00:19:04.640 --> 00:19:07.920 lcs that are limited in their utility, and any type 321 00:19:07.960 --> 00:19:11.000 of fight against China, it's actually much smaller than that. 322 00:19:13.480 --> 00:19:15.880 For China's timing, it might be pretty good because in 323 00:19:15.920 --> 00:19:18.160 a way, because we've been talking big about what has 324 00:19:18.160 --> 00:19:21.279 it been ten years since our Pacific pivot that President 325 00:19:21.359 --> 00:19:26.680 Obama announced, and we've had Davidson and there's Davidson window, 326 00:19:26.799 --> 00:19:30.079 and we had got Paparo out there. We're talking a 327 00:19:30.119 --> 00:19:35.000 pretty big military discussion. But in a way, we've we've 328 00:19:35.079 --> 00:19:38.480 balked for you baseball fans, we've balked on the Pacific 329 00:19:38.519 --> 00:19:42.440 pivot because we haven't backed it up with the resources 330 00:19:42.920 --> 00:19:44.799 for the fight in the Western Pacific, which is going 331 00:19:44.880 --> 00:19:47.160 to be a maritime and aerospace fight. We just we 332 00:19:47.440 --> 00:19:49.480 haven't done it out. See how we're going to do 333 00:19:49.519 --> 00:19:53.400 it with the present And this is not a political statement, 334 00:19:53.400 --> 00:19:55.519 it's just a reality statement. It belongs to both political 335 00:19:55.559 --> 00:20:02.240 parties with the present leadership and philosophy underlying both towards 336 00:20:02.359 --> 00:20:04.279 national defense. I don't see how you're going to get 337 00:20:04.279 --> 00:20:06.799 any big change it will move that number. As such, 338 00:20:07.880 --> 00:20:09.519 if you've got a fight with what you got right 339 00:20:09.559 --> 00:20:13.160 now west of the International dateline. 340 00:20:14.440 --> 00:20:15.160 To the math. 341 00:20:16.559 --> 00:20:21.880 Against that scenario. We started the show with that of 342 00:20:21.920 --> 00:20:24.440 all the possible courses of action, and that's probably the 343 00:20:24.480 --> 00:20:27.440 one that has the highest degree for success for the Chinese. 344 00:20:27.480 --> 00:20:29.079 And I think that door is open for him. They 345 00:20:29.079 --> 00:20:29.880 want to step through it. 346 00:20:30.799 --> 00:20:33.440 Yeah, and it's you know, we've we've not only have 347 00:20:33.519 --> 00:20:37.160 we not actively improved our position in the in the 348 00:20:37.160 --> 00:20:40.640 Western Pacific, we've hurt ourselves. You know, we we close 349 00:20:40.759 --> 00:20:43.319 Red Hill. Yeah, I know it's polluting and all that stuff, 350 00:20:43.400 --> 00:20:46.880 but but now you know what was the fallback plan. 351 00:20:46.920 --> 00:20:48.680 We're going to have a bunch of tankers somewhere that 352 00:20:48.720 --> 00:20:51.480 are full of oil, you know, the the equivalent of 353 00:20:51.519 --> 00:20:53.519 Red Hill. Well, I don't know where that has gone, 354 00:20:53.599 --> 00:20:55.400 and you know, how are we going to get that 355 00:20:55.400 --> 00:20:58.319 stuff across the Pacific? You know, they we already know 356 00:20:58.440 --> 00:21:00.319 we were when we were talking to I think Dean 357 00:21:00.440 --> 00:21:03.839 Chang or Tean Chang I for somebody. But we're talking 358 00:21:03.839 --> 00:21:09.799 about the the Chinese have recognized. Maybe it was some 359 00:21:09.839 --> 00:21:13.279 of the Chinese, it was Toshi Toshi Yasha Hari, you know, 360 00:21:13.319 --> 00:21:17.279 wis we're talking about the Chinese recognizing World War two lessons. Well, 361 00:21:17.279 --> 00:21:19.759 you know the US is the logistics thing is what 362 00:21:19.920 --> 00:21:22.000 kept them in the war. And you're going, Okay, well, 363 00:21:22.039 --> 00:21:23.319 what are we going to do about it? Well, they 364 00:21:23.359 --> 00:21:26.759 may have noisy submarines, but we don't have enough assets 365 00:21:26.799 --> 00:21:33.200 to protect our valuable logistics ships from noisy even noisy submarines. 366 00:21:33.279 --> 00:21:35.279 So there are a bunch of issues where we've shot 367 00:21:35.279 --> 00:21:37.680 ourselves on the foot before things get off the off 368 00:21:37.799 --> 00:21:41.440 this start. So what you know, I think there are 369 00:21:41.440 --> 00:21:44.359 a lot of questions about preparedness and what we've done 370 00:21:44.440 --> 00:21:47.200 to as you say that the pivot to the Pacific, 371 00:21:47.200 --> 00:21:50.519 because I I'm having trouble figure out where we've other 372 00:21:50.559 --> 00:21:52.839 than putting some marines into the Philippines, I'm not quite 373 00:21:52.839 --> 00:21:57.640 sure where we've enhanced our abilities to fight anybody out 374 00:21:57.680 --> 00:21:58.079 in that area. 375 00:21:59.799 --> 00:22:03.039 Ye. Big part of it is we again, as we've 376 00:22:03.039 --> 00:22:08.480 been discussing here well over a decade, is there hasn't 377 00:22:08.519 --> 00:22:12.599 been either the sense of urgency or the right combination 378 00:22:12.680 --> 00:22:16.359 of people to change the mindset, to change the processes 379 00:22:16.480 --> 00:22:19.599 and the procedures that we fell in love with in 380 00:22:19.640 --> 00:22:23.160 the post Cold War era that gave us the luxury 381 00:22:23.279 --> 00:22:27.119 of taking our time for these developments, while we've missed 382 00:22:27.119 --> 00:22:31.680 a couple of generations of both aircraft and ship and 383 00:22:31.799 --> 00:22:35.680 land power development. The People's Republic of China that used 384 00:22:35.680 --> 00:22:38.519 to be way behind us is if you want to 385 00:22:38.559 --> 00:22:42.960 look at an individual quant qualitative point of view, Yeah, 386 00:22:43.000 --> 00:22:46.000 we're still ahead of them, but that delta continues to 387 00:22:46.039 --> 00:22:49.920 shrink as they go iteration by iteration by iteration. You know, 388 00:22:50.200 --> 00:22:53.160 do they even have the equivalent of a SM two 389 00:22:53.279 --> 00:22:55.680 or an SM two alpha, much less an SM three. 390 00:22:57.000 --> 00:22:59.559 Somebody has that answer, but you can't get that answer 391 00:22:59.559 --> 00:23:01.599 out of this gift. But I think it would be 392 00:23:01.640 --> 00:23:07.960 dangerous to assume that their missiles are low quality, are 393 00:23:08.000 --> 00:23:12.000 primitive for what they need. Unlike us, they don't have 394 00:23:12.359 --> 00:23:18.079 hundreds of short, short range and medium range, intermediate range 395 00:23:18.119 --> 00:23:24.720 ballistic missiles with USA written on it facing them unless 396 00:23:24.720 --> 00:23:27.319 you're going to get some high Mars in there, which 397 00:23:28.359 --> 00:23:30.960 good luck with that. So they don't have to have 398 00:23:31.039 --> 00:23:33.279 those capabilities. What they'd have to be able to deal 399 00:23:33.319 --> 00:23:38.640 with is American cruise missiles and American aircraft, and that's 400 00:23:38.880 --> 00:23:41.119 a very different challenge and one that I think is 401 00:23:41.160 --> 00:23:46.200