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Speaker 1: Fading the Public has made money each of the first

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four weeks this NFL season. Do we go for a

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fifth straight winning week? Fad in the Public? Well, I've

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got the three most public sides this Sunday, October the fifth.

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I'm gonna give them to you in this video. I'm

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gonna let you know if you should play them or

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fade them. Full details, free plays, free analysis coming up

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right here, right now. It's the Steve merriwager Talk dot Com,

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right back here on wager Talk TV. As I mentioned,

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fad in the Public's worked really well so far this season.

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In fact, fading the most public sides I've given you

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this video of cashed each of the first four weeks,

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including going three and one again last week. Famed the

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official public plays now twelve and five. Fading the official

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public sides. Lions did sneak in as a public lien

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last week. They did cash fading those additional public lians,

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by the way, or two and two. So if you

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put everything that I've given you in the video, still

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fourteen and seven sixty seven percent, fad in the Public

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plays and additional lians now lighter card this week, which

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isn't a surprise We talked about this every year when

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the public starts cashing, they get more bold when they

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start taking it on the chin, like they have so

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far the first month of this season, they're a little

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more conservative. Only three official public sides, no additional leans,

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but all three of these are very public, and we're

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going to see if we should play them or fade them.

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One early game, two late afternoon games for Sunday. Let's

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go down in start time order. The one early game

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at one o'clock Eastern is Dallas at the New York Jets,

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and the public is on the Cowboys minus the two

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and a half, and let's get right to it. I

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think we do fade the public in this one for

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a few reasons. First off, tough spot for Dallas. The

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spotlight Sunday night National TV game against the Packers is

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nearly a touchdown home dog battle back, they block the

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extra point running back, they go to overtime because of it,

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end up with a tie. Kiss their sister Well, I

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think this is a situation where tie kind of feels

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like a win. If you're Green Bay, it feels like

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a loss laying almost a touchdown, So it was a

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good spot for Dallas. A good tie, I guess you

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can say, which is something you rarely ever say in

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the see in the NFL, or say in the NFL.

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And now they have to travel play a non conference opponent,

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laying points on the road with one of the worst

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defenses still in the NFL. It's a Jets team that

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actually played a little bit better than the twenty seven

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to twenty one Monday Night Football loss show. Now, yes,

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the Jets are owned four straight up, but they gained

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four over four hundred yards in that Miami game. Three

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turnovers to none is what did them in And Hew'll

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check this out. The Jets have not forced a turnover

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yet this season in the first four games. Now, fumbles

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are like ninety percent random in the NFL. Interceptions not

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as much so, because obviously better pass defense is weaker quarterbacks,

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et cetera. Are gonna have more or less interceptions. But

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still they have no turnovers after four games is very unusual,

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and the Jets have turned it over seven times, forced none.

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They're due to win the turnover battle, and since this

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is a possible letdown flat spot for Dallas, wouldn't be

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shocked to see the Cowboys maybe turn the ball over

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a little bit more than expected in this game. I

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faded the public in this one with the Jets plus

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two and a half. Now I would like to get

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plus three or more. It's a very key number. If

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you're going to play the Jets here, I would wait.

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You might get plus three by Sunday morning, because the

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public does look like they could push this line higher

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if you like the Cowboy which I don't, but if

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you like the Cowboys, I would lay the minus two

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and a half sooner than later, because they very well

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could go to that key number three. About an eight

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to nine percent chance Dallas wins back exactly three points

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in this game. By the way, if you're not able

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to get that key number of plus three by kickoff

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on Sunday, you could definitely look at the Jets on

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a six point teaser, taking them up to plus eight

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and a half. That does make a solid teaser selection.

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If the line never hits three, have to tie that

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up with something else. And by the way, I do

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think the Sunday Night Game is a decent teaser opportunity

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between the Patriots and Bills. I have a free play

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video for that game. Also, the Monday Night Game two

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free play videos for both Sunday and Monday night football

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sides and totals free for you to check that video

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out after words here for free on wager Talk TV.

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Hey that rhymes gotta like it all right? For a

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other two games that are very public this week, both

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going the late card at four to twenty five Eastern,

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right before that Sunday night game on the schedule. Detroit

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Lions minus the ten to ten and a half. Not

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a surprise. First of all, Detroit's a public team. Second

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of all, the Bengals are a complete fade right now.

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And I've often said over the years, been loyal viewers

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for many years here on wager Talk TV with my

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favorite the public video, know that it's not always about

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backing a team. The public sometimes just doesn't touch the

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other team, and because of that we get very one

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sided action. And that's what we have here in the

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Detroit game. And I don't blame them. I'm in no

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hurry to back Cincinnati. They're a free fall right now.

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They've lost Joe Burrow. This is the type of team

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you got to be very careful with until you see

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something turn. We did not see that in that under

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Monday night game last week talked about the Jets losing

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with over four hundred yards of offense. Well, the Cincinnati

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Bengals did not do much at all in their game

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against the Denver Broncos, scoring just three points. And it

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was not misleading. They only had one hundred and fifty

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nine total yards of offense. The week before, they scored

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only ten points against the Vikings. In that game, they

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had only one hundred and seventy one total yards of offense.

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And what's even worse is they only scored three points

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last week and they didn't even turn the ball over.

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Jake Browning is not Joe Burrow part two. And keep

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in mind, even when Burrow was in there for about

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a game and a half this year, they're still only

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averaging like five yards per pass. And I pointed that

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out last this week the Broncos. By the way, there

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were four official public plays last week. The only one

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that did cover were the Broncos. So the public got

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it right last week fading the Bengals. I'm not in

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a hurry to lay ten ten and a half points

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with the Lions in a non conference road game here,

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especially since they're coming up. They have some bigger games

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on deck, including the Sunday night game next week against

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the Kansas City Chiefs on the road. This is not

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a great spot for Detroit. I have no interest in

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this game. If you want to fade the public here

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and back the Bengals, do so at your own apparel,

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holding your nose. But we got to see something offensively

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before we can trust them. Just cannot back bad teams

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with no offense. And if you're new to the video,

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I always say, we don't blindly fade the public. We

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use this as a filter part of the handicapping process.

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And one thing I like to filter out are really

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bad teams, especially bad offensive teams, and the Bengals definitely

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qualify right now. So not a situation i'd be looking

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to fade, although once again not a good spot for Detroit,

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either laying double digits with the Sunday Night or at

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Kansas City on deck next week. Detroit, those are so

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good offensive they probably can pull ahead even if they're

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not fully focused in this one. All right, We're going

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to go to the other game here at four twenty

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five Eastern. It's not my washing the Commanders against the

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LA Chargers, and a little surprising here, actually the public

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is fading the Commanders now, not a surprise. They're on

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the Chargers. They've been on the Chargers almost each of

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the past several weeks, including last week and the week before.

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I believe, in fact, I look at my notes, Yes,

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they have faded the public each of the last two weeks.

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The public has faded the Chargers. They got a little

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bit lucky two weeks ago. It closed right at three

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of that home game against Denver, and I mentioned I

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actually liked the Chargers in that game. That was one

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where I did not look to fade them. Last week, though,

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I mentioned what a terrible spot it was for the

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Chargers traveling cross country after three high profile divisional games

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to start the season, and then having to play the

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hapless New York Giants non conference road game lay nearly

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a touchdown, well, kind of like the Packers the week

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before at Cleveland in that spot, road favorite came up

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flat and the Giants did win out right. Plus Jackson

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Dart was getting the spark the start. It was a

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little bit of a spark for New York as well.

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But the Chargers also we had two turnovers and none force.

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In fact, they have a four to zero negative turnover

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edge in the last two games. In fact, they've only

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forced turnovers in one game all season. That was three

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of them against the Raiders. They have no turnovers forced

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in the other three games. Same with the Commanders. Though

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Commanders forced their first turnover the season last week against Atlanta,

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they'd forced none of the first three games. They've only

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turned the ball over twice though la five times. We

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faded the Commanders last week, the public was on them.

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Last week they were on the Chargers as well. So

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these are two teams with the public loss. I mentioned

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out the publica with one and three. The only win

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was on Denver. Well, two of those losses were the

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Commanders at Atlanta, and we had a strong best bet

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on the Falcons. I mentioned I love fading public dogs.

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That's another one of those filters I talk about. It

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was a great spot to back Atlanta. I was the

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best bet winner for my clients, and also it was

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a terrible spot for the Chargers. So once again the

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public went oz and two with these two teams last week. Well,

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they're coming back with the Chargers, but they are fading

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the Commanders now and it's always interesting to me when

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they flip flopped quickly like that. And by the way,

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that was the situation with the Cowboys last week. I

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failed to mention that Green Bay was that other very

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public play that did not cash. And now the public

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is backing the Cowboys. So that's another filter I like

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to use with this public data, is the quick reversal

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when they're fading a team like the Cowboys, but then

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they're backing them, that's always a red flag. By the way,

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Atlanta last week, was it two weeks ago? The public

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is on Atlanta as an additional lean and then they

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faded them last week. We saw that turned out, So

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we'll see how this one turns out on the Commanders here.

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But these are two teams that went down last week.

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Jaden Daniels is expected back. He's listed as available as

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we head into the weekend. So I'm not going to

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look at the side here. I'm going to look at

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the total actually, and I think the undermakes some sense

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here for a few reasons. First of all, the line

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is three. It's a very key number, about a nine

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percent chance the Chargers win by exactly three, So it

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might end up being a push like it was two

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weeks ago against Denver as a three point home favorite.

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But the reason I'm hesitant with the Chargers, the team

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I do like this year, is the fact they have

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cluster offensive line injuries and the backups are not nearly

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as good as starters. And it's not about injuries, it's

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about the backups. And this is a situation where I

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do think there's a big drop off for some of

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these injured offensive linemen, and that's a concern. But I'm

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also in no hurry to back not my Washington Commanders.

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And by the way, if you're new to my videos,

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it's not because I don't like the Commanders. It's because

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I grew up a redskin fan season ticket older. Just

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check the background. Just check the background here over my shoulder,

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and you will see what I'm talking about. A little

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banner there with the helmets, the hat, the Joe Gibbs

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hat background not actually Joe Gibbs has the type he

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war wish it was his hat autographed would be nice.

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But I thought the Commanders would regress this year. They

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were a phony team that broke out after just four

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wins double digit wins last year. I like their season

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win total under so I'm in no hurry to back

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the Commanders in this spot, I think the Unders the

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better play under forty eight with the beat up offensive

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line for the Chargers Jaden Daniels back, but maybe not

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one hundred percent. I like the Under here. The Commander's

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defense has looked better at times this season overall, but

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they face some weak offensive opponents and the Chargers are

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a bit stup up in class. Commander's offenses look pretty

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good regardless of the quarterback, but now they're taking on

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a Charger defense. It's been very solid, get up just

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four point eight yards per play this year against teams

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at average five point five. Charger pass defense has been

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the strength five yards per pass against teams at average

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six point four. I think they can hold and check

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a very mediocre offense, a passing offense for the Commanders.

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Washington might have some success on the ground with that.

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I'll keep the clock moving. It's a big total, especially

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with the beat up offensive line for LA. Look at

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under forty eight. We're going to stay off the side here.

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I don't want to fade or play either one of

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these teams with the public kind of Wishwashy, let's look

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under forty eight, so I'll give you a free play

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on the total here in this one instead. Hey, there

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you go. Three most public sides this week. Do with

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you one as you always do with this information, but

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I give it to you. And yes, fade in the

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public has been profitable each of the first four weeks.

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We'll see if it holds up here for a fifth

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straight week, and let me know your thoughts if it

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will or not. These three public sides, you agree or

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disagree with any of them, And once again to recap

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Dallas Cowboys minus two and a half at the Jets,

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and on the Lake card Detroit Lions minus a ten,

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ten and a half at the Bengals, and then the

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LA Chargers minus three at home against the Commanders. Cowboys Lions, Chargers.

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Those are your three official public plays here for week five.

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We'll see if fadum works out like it has so

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far in the first four weeks. Once get Faden, the

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00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:09,799
official public plays is now twelve and five so far

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this season, fading all the leans and plays fourteen and

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seven overall. If you're liking this video, I'll ask is

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00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:18,559
a thumbs up like boom, click that thumbs up like

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I will keep it coming each and every week, and

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00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,039
also comment below if you have some time, include a

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00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,240
positive comment below or let me know which games you

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00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:28,320
like this Sunday in the NFL. Hey drop some analysis

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00:11:28,399 --> 00:11:30,960
as well. Let's learn and earn and win together here

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00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:33,919
on wager talk TV. By the way, if you want

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00:11:33,919 --> 00:11:36,159
my official best bets, check out my page each and

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00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:38,519
every day at wager talk dot com. My official NFL

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best bets for Sunday locked and loaded. And if you're

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joining us earlier in the week on Friday or Saturday,

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when you're watching this video, not too late to get

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some advanced or never too early, I should say, to

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get some advanced NFL best bets. I've already posted two

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strong NFL Sunday plays earlier this week, and there is

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still line value. Also, a bonus free play for Sunday

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is up there right now, and that's how it always works.

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The last cup for my best bet card goes up

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as a bonus free play, and if you get the

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college and pro football for just forty nine dollars. If

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you're joining us Friday or Saturday, get the Weekend Special

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for forty nine and get all those plays. Or if

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you're joining us on Sunday, consider maybe a seven day

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for ninety nine dollars. It'll get you through next Saturday

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seven days, and it gets baseball as well. The baseball

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playoffs started two to zer earlier this week. Hey, keep

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in mind baseball still has about a month ago basketball

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right around the corner. So yeah, All Sports All Access

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is a great way to go this time of year.

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the best bets. The daily free play including an NFL

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play that's up there right now for Sunday is on

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my page Steve Merrill wager talk dot com and you

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get there quicker with shortcut WT dot buzz slash sm

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Make sure you subscribe to wager Talk TV. Over two

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make sure you also click the bell as well. You'll

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get an instant alert when these free play videos are

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posted each and every day of the week here on

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the channel, so you'll never miss out and you can

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be the first to watch. Get some bragging rights with

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more viewers, the more thumbs up lights, the more comments,

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the more free play videos. I will continue to do

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each and every day, each and every week this football,

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basketball and also baseball seasons. On the way out. You

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can follow me on social media at Steve Merrill. I

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post links to my free plays and also the videos

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daily on X. Also follow me on Instagram at Steve

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Merrill two r's one l M E R R I

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l at Steve Merrill on X and Instagram, and stay

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tuned here to wager Talk TV because you know, there's

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more free play video, including both the Sunday and Monday

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Night football games previewed for free Patriots Bills, Chiefs Jags

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to stay tuned as there are truly more free play

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videos coming up next