Speaker 1: Fading the Public has made money each of the first
four weeks this NFL season. Do we go for a
fifth straight winning week? Fad in the Public? Well, I've
got the three most public sides this Sunday, October the fifth.
I'm gonna give them to you in this video. I'm
gonna let you know if you should play them or
fade them. Full details, free plays, free analysis coming up
right here, right now. It's the Steve merriwager Talk dot Com,
right back here on wager Talk TV. As I mentioned,
fad in the Public's worked really well so far this season.
In fact, fading the most public sides I've given you
this video of cashed each of the first four weeks,
including going three and one again last week. Famed the
official public plays now twelve and five. Fading the official
public sides. Lions did sneak in as a public lien
last week. They did cash fading those additional public lians,
by the way, or two and two. So if you
put everything that I've given you in the video, still
fourteen and seven sixty seven percent, fad in the Public
plays and additional lians now lighter card this week, which
isn't a surprise We talked about this every year when
the public starts cashing, they get more bold when they
start taking it on the chin, like they have so
far the first month of this season, they're a little
more conservative. Only three official public sides, no additional leans,
but all three of these are very public, and we're
going to see if we should play them or fade them.
One early game, two late afternoon games for Sunday. Let's
go down in start time order. The one early game
at one o'clock Eastern is Dallas at the New York Jets,
and the public is on the Cowboys minus the two
and a half, and let's get right to it. I
think we do fade the public in this one for
a few reasons. First off, tough spot for Dallas. The
spotlight Sunday night National TV game against the Packers is
nearly a touchdown home dog battle back, they block the
extra point running back, they go to overtime because of it,
end up with a tie. Kiss their sister Well, I
think this is a situation where tie kind of feels
like a win. If you're Green Bay, it feels like
a loss laying almost a touchdown, So it was a
good spot for Dallas. A good tie, I guess you
can say, which is something you rarely ever say in
the see in the NFL, or say in the NFL.
And now they have to travel play a non conference opponent,
laying points on the road with one of the worst
defenses still in the NFL. It's a Jets team that
actually played a little bit better than the twenty seven
to twenty one Monday Night Football loss show. Now, yes,
the Jets are owned four straight up, but they gained
four over four hundred yards in that Miami game. Three
turnovers to none is what did them in And Hew'll
check this out. The Jets have not forced a turnover
yet this season in the first four games. Now, fumbles
are like ninety percent random in the NFL. Interceptions not
as much so, because obviously better pass defense is weaker quarterbacks,
et cetera. Are gonna have more or less interceptions. But
still they have no turnovers after four games is very unusual,
and the Jets have turned it over seven times, forced none.
They're due to win the turnover battle, and since this
is a possible letdown flat spot for Dallas, wouldn't be
shocked to see the Cowboys maybe turn the ball over
a little bit more than expected in this game. I
faded the public in this one with the Jets plus
two and a half. Now I would like to get
plus three or more. It's a very key number. If
you're going to play the Jets here, I would wait.
You might get plus three by Sunday morning, because the
public does look like they could push this line higher
if you like the Cowboy which I don't, but if
you like the Cowboys, I would lay the minus two
and a half sooner than later, because they very well
could go to that key number three. About an eight
to nine percent chance Dallas wins back exactly three points
in this game. By the way, if you're not able
to get that key number of plus three by kickoff
on Sunday, you could definitely look at the Jets on
a six point teaser, taking them up to plus eight
and a half. That does make a solid teaser selection.
If the line never hits three, have to tie that
up with something else. And by the way, I do
think the Sunday Night Game is a decent teaser opportunity
between the Patriots and Bills. I have a free play
video for that game. Also, the Monday Night Game two
free play videos for both Sunday and Monday night football
sides and totals free for you to check that video
out after words here for free on wager Talk TV.
Hey that rhymes gotta like it all right? For a
other two games that are very public this week, both
going the late card at four to twenty five Eastern,
right before that Sunday night game on the schedule. Detroit
Lions minus the ten to ten and a half. Not
a surprise. First of all, Detroit's a public team. Second
of all, the Bengals are a complete fade right now.
And I've often said over the years, been loyal viewers
for many years here on wager Talk TV with my
favorite the public video, know that it's not always about
backing a team. The public sometimes just doesn't touch the
other team, and because of that we get very one
sided action. And that's what we have here in the
Detroit game. And I don't blame them. I'm in no
hurry to back Cincinnati. They're a free fall right now.
They've lost Joe Burrow. This is the type of team
you got to be very careful with until you see
something turn. We did not see that in that under
Monday night game last week talked about the Jets losing
with over four hundred yards of offense. Well, the Cincinnati
Bengals did not do much at all in their game
against the Denver Broncos, scoring just three points. And it
was not misleading. They only had one hundred and fifty
nine total yards of offense. The week before, they scored
only ten points against the Vikings. In that game, they
had only one hundred and seventy one total yards of offense.
And what's even worse is they only scored three points
last week and they didn't even turn the ball over.
Jake Browning is not Joe Burrow part two. And keep
in mind, even when Burrow was in there for about
a game and a half this year, they're still only
averaging like five yards per pass. And I pointed that
out last this week the Broncos. By the way, there
were four official public plays last week. The only one
that did cover were the Broncos. So the public got
it right last week fading the Bengals. I'm not in
a hurry to lay ten ten and a half points
with the Lions in a non conference road game here,
especially since they're coming up. They have some bigger games
on deck, including the Sunday night game next week against
the Kansas City Chiefs on the road. This is not
a great spot for Detroit. I have no interest in
this game. If you want to fade the public here
and back the Bengals, do so at your own apparel,
holding your nose. But we got to see something offensively
before we can trust them. Just cannot back bad teams
with no offense. And if you're new to the video,
I always say, we don't blindly fade the public. We
use this as a filter part of the handicapping process.
And one thing I like to filter out are really
bad teams, especially bad offensive teams, and the Bengals definitely
qualify right now. So not a situation i'd be looking
to fade, although once again not a good spot for Detroit,
either laying double digits with the Sunday Night or at
Kansas City on deck next week. Detroit, those are so
good offensive they probably can pull ahead even if they're
not fully focused in this one. All right, We're going
to go to the other game here at four twenty
five Eastern. It's not my washing the Commanders against the
LA Chargers, and a little surprising here, actually the public
is fading the Commanders now, not a surprise. They're on
the Chargers. They've been on the Chargers almost each of
the past several weeks, including last week and the week before.
I believe, in fact, I look at my notes, Yes,
they have faded the public each of the last two weeks.
The public has faded the Chargers. They got a little
bit lucky two weeks ago. It closed right at three
of that home game against Denver, and I mentioned I
actually liked the Chargers in that game. That was one
where I did not look to fade them. Last week, though,
I mentioned what a terrible spot it was for the
Chargers traveling cross country after three high profile divisional games
to start the season, and then having to play the
hapless New York Giants non conference road game lay nearly
a touchdown, well, kind of like the Packers the week
before at Cleveland in that spot, road favorite came up
flat and the Giants did win out right. Plus Jackson
Dart was getting the spark the start. It was a
little bit of a spark for New York as well.
But the Chargers also we had two turnovers and none force.
In fact, they have a four to zero negative turnover
edge in the last two games. In fact, they've only
forced turnovers in one game all season. That was three
of them against the Raiders. They have no turnovers forced
in the other three games. Same with the Commanders. Though
Commanders forced their first turnover the season last week against Atlanta,
they'd forced none of the first three games. They've only
turned the ball over twice though la five times. We
faded the Commanders last week, the public was on them.
Last week they were on the Chargers as well. So
these are two teams with the public loss. I mentioned
out the publica with one and three. The only win
was on Denver. Well, two of those losses were the
Commanders at Atlanta, and we had a strong best bet
on the Falcons. I mentioned I love fading public dogs.
That's another one of those filters I talk about. It
was a great spot to back Atlanta. I was the
best bet winner for my clients, and also it was
a terrible spot for the Chargers. So once again the
public went oz and two with these two teams last week. Well,
they're coming back with the Chargers, but they are fading
the Commanders now and it's always interesting to me when
they flip flopped quickly like that. And by the way,
that was the situation with the Cowboys last week. I
failed to mention that Green Bay was that other very
public play that did not cash. And now the public
is backing the Cowboys. So that's another filter I like
to use with this public data, is the quick reversal
when they're fading a team like the Cowboys, but then
they're backing them, that's always a red flag. By the way,
Atlanta last week, was it two weeks ago? The public
is on Atlanta as an additional lean and then they
faded them last week. We saw that turned out, So
we'll see how this one turns out on the Commanders here.
But these are two teams that went down last week.
Jaden Daniels is expected back. He's listed as available as
we head into the weekend. So I'm not going to
look at the side here. I'm going to look at
the total actually, and I think the undermakes some sense
here for a few reasons. First of all, the line
is three. It's a very key number, about a nine
percent chance the Chargers win by exactly three, So it
might end up being a push like it was two
weeks ago against Denver as a three point home favorite.
But the reason I'm hesitant with the Chargers, the team
I do like this year, is the fact they have
cluster offensive line injuries and the backups are not nearly
as good as starters. And it's not about injuries, it's
about the backups. And this is a situation where I
do think there's a big drop off for some of
these injured offensive linemen, and that's a concern. But I'm
also in no hurry to back not my Washington Commanders.
And by the way, if you're new to my videos,
it's not because I don't like the Commanders. It's because
I grew up a redskin fan season ticket older. Just
check the background. Just check the background here over my shoulder,
and you will see what I'm talking about. A little
banner there with the helmets, the hat, the Joe Gibbs
hat background not actually Joe Gibbs has the type he
war wish it was his hat autographed would be nice.
But I thought the Commanders would regress this year. They
were a phony team that broke out after just four
wins double digit wins last year. I like their season
win total under so I'm in no hurry to back
the Commanders in this spot, I think the Unders the
better play under forty eight with the beat up offensive
line for the Chargers Jaden Daniels back, but maybe not
one hundred percent. I like the Under here. The Commander's
defense has looked better at times this season overall, but
they face some weak offensive opponents and the Chargers are
a bit stup up in class. Commander's offenses look pretty
good regardless of the quarterback, but now they're taking on
a Charger defense. It's been very solid, get up just
four point eight yards per play this year against teams
at average five point five. Charger pass defense has been
the strength five yards per pass against teams at average
six point four. I think they can hold and check
a very mediocre offense, a passing offense for the Commanders.
Washington might have some success on the ground with that.
I'll keep the clock moving. It's a big total, especially
with the beat up offensive line for LA. Look at
under forty eight. We're going to stay off the side here.
I don't want to fade or play either one of
these teams with the public kind of Wishwashy, let's look
under forty eight, so I'll give you a free play
on the total here in this one instead. Hey, there
you go. Three most public sides this week. Do with
you one as you always do with this information, but
I give it to you. And yes, fade in the
public has been profitable each of the first four weeks.
We'll see if it holds up here for a fifth
straight week, and let me know your thoughts if it
will or not. These three public sides, you agree or
disagree with any of them, And once again to recap
Dallas Cowboys minus two and a half at the Jets,
and on the Lake card Detroit Lions minus a ten,
ten and a half at the Bengals, and then the
LA Chargers minus three at home against the Commanders. Cowboys Lions, Chargers.
Those are your three official public plays here for week five.
We'll see if fadum works out like it has so
far in the first four weeks. Once get Faden, the
official public plays is now twelve and five so far
this season, fading all the leans and plays fourteen and
seven overall. If you're liking this video, I'll ask is
a thumbs up like boom, click that thumbs up like
I will keep it coming each and every week, and
also comment below if you have some time, include a
positive comment below or let me know which games you
like this Sunday in the NFL. Hey drop some analysis
as well. Let's learn and earn and win together here
on wager talk TV. By the way, if you want
my official best bets, check out my page each and
every day at wager talk dot com. My official NFL
best bets for Sunday locked and loaded. And if you're
joining us earlier in the week on Friday or Saturday,
when you're watching this video, not too late to get
some advanced or never too early, I should say, to
get some advanced NFL best bets. I've already posted two
strong NFL Sunday plays earlier this week, and there is
still line value. Also, a bonus free play for Sunday
is up there right now, and that's how it always works.
The last cup for my best bet card goes up
as a bonus free play, and if you get the
Weekend Warrior Package, you get all of Saturday and Sunday's
college and pro football for just forty nine dollars. If
you're joining us Friday or Saturday, get the Weekend Special
for forty nine and get all those plays. Or if
you're joining us on Sunday, consider maybe a seven day
for ninety nine dollars. It'll get you through next Saturday
seven days, and it gets baseball as well. The baseball
playoffs started two to zer earlier this week. Hey, keep
in mind baseball still has about a month ago basketball
right around the corner. So yeah, All Sports All Access
is a great way to go this time of year.
If you're ready to take a serious investment approach, consider
the one year all Access with an instant eight hundred
and eleven dollars discount when you use promo code SM
three sixty five at checkout. That gets it down to
three dollars a day, about a dollar a play for
every college and pro football, basketball, and baseball best bet
for the next three hundred and sixty five days and nights.
About a dollar play. What a great investment opportunity. And
we use promo code SM three sixty five, you get
an instant eight hundred and eleven dollars discount on the
one year all access. All these options, all these promo codes,
the best bets. The daily free play including an NFL
play that's up there right now for Sunday is on
my page Steve Merrill wager talk dot com and you
get there quicker with shortcut WT dot buzz slash sm
Make sure you subscribe to wager Talk TV. Over two
hundred and twenty one thousand subscribers can't be wrong. It's free,
don't cost nothing. Click subscribe, and if you've already done so,
make sure you also click the bell as well. You'll
get an instant alert when these free play videos are
posted each and every day of the week here on
the channel, so you'll never miss out and you can
be the first to watch. Get some bragging rights with
your friends, and by the way, share these videos. Share
the channel, Share wager talk TV with your friends. The
more viewers, the more thumbs up lights, the more comments,
the more free play videos. I will continue to do
each and every day, each and every week this football,
basketball and also baseball seasons. On the way out. You
can follow me on social media at Steve Merrill. I
post links to my free plays and also the videos
daily on X. Also follow me on Instagram at Steve
Merrill two r's one l M E R R I
l at Steve Merrill on X and Instagram, and stay
tuned here to wager Talk TV because you know, there's
more free play video, including both the Sunday and Monday
Night football games previewed for free Patriots Bills, Chiefs Jags
Sunday Night and Monday Night sides and totals for free
to stay tuned as there are truly more free play
videos coming up next