WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.520 --> 00:00:01.399 Hey, what's up, guys. 2 00:00:01.399 --> 00:00:02.240 This is d uh. 3 00:00:02.399 --> 00:00:04.280 Do us a favorite and check out our Patreon page. 4 00:00:04.320 --> 00:00:07.320 It's patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. You get both 5 00:00:07.679 --> 00:00:12.400 Teamhouse episodes and Eyes on Geopolitics episodes completely ad free. 6 00:00:12.880 --> 00:00:14.960 You get them early too. You can ask us questions. 7 00:00:14.960 --> 00:00:18.239 You can also watch the Team Mass episodes live as 8 00:00:18.280 --> 00:00:21.160 we shoot them. So uh, and you help support the 9 00:00:21.160 --> 00:00:25.120 show and support what we're doing here. It's Patreon dot 10 00:00:25.160 --> 00:00:27.760 com Slash the Teamhouse. Those links are in the description 11 00:00:27.839 --> 00:00:29.800 or if you're listening, it's in the show notes down below, 12 00:00:30.079 --> 00:00:32.280 so you can click it real quick and easy, and 13 00:00:32.320 --> 00:00:33.679 it helps us keep the lights on. 14 00:00:34.119 --> 00:00:34.200 Uh. 15 00:00:34.439 --> 00:00:37.880 So we appreciate it, and we appreciate you guys listening. 16 00:00:37.920 --> 00:00:42.799 Thanks a bunch. Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of 17 00:00:42.840 --> 00:00:46.359 Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm joined today with Jack Murphy, Jason Lynes, 18 00:00:46.439 --> 00:00:50.280 Jonathan Hackett. I believe the Muscles from Brussels is coming. 19 00:00:50.320 --> 00:00:54.840 Andy will be here shortly. Uh yeah, A lot going on. 20 00:00:54.880 --> 00:00:57.200 We're doing a double double whammy this week of Eyes 21 00:00:57.320 --> 00:01:02.039 On's because, uh, you know, obviously the war continues against Iran. 22 00:01:03.119 --> 00:01:05.680 A lot has happened. I don't even know where I'm 23 00:01:05.680 --> 00:01:10.159 gonna start. I'm literally haven't decided yet, but let's start 24 00:01:10.200 --> 00:01:13.879 with Let's start with the fact that they picked a 25 00:01:13.879 --> 00:01:18.599 new Supreme leader, which is Kamani's son, his second son, 26 00:01:19.879 --> 00:01:21.760 but they don't know if he's if people are alive, 27 00:01:21.760 --> 00:01:24.760 because they bomb the Council what is it called, Council 28 00:01:24.799 --> 00:01:29.519 of Experts, Assembly of Experts. Yeah, they bombed that when 29 00:01:29.519 --> 00:01:31.439 that was going on. So it really seems like we 30 00:01:31.519 --> 00:01:33.959 really want to negotiate with whoever comes out on top 31 00:01:34.000 --> 00:01:37.879 of this. A lot's been happening. There's like so many things. 32 00:01:37.920 --> 00:01:40.959 I think six service members have died and I think 33 00:01:41.000 --> 00:01:44.959 twenty plus have been wounded. On the American side, Iran 34 00:01:45.040 --> 00:01:50.159 keeps continuing to hit all the Gulf states around them, targeting, 35 00:01:50.239 --> 00:01:54.359 mostly targeting. They are targeting civilian stuff like infrastructure and 36 00:01:54.359 --> 00:01:56.359 stuff like that, but they're targeting a lot of military stuff. 37 00:01:56.359 --> 00:02:00.200 Like you see some satellite images of our bases in 38 00:02:00.239 --> 00:02:02.200 and around the area. They don't look like they're doing 39 00:02:02.239 --> 00:02:08.560 super great. Word is is like another big wave coming 40 00:02:08.639 --> 00:02:11.479 from us from on our side on Iran, And I'm 41 00:02:11.479 --> 00:02:14.680 sure it's been happening all day. Another big part of 42 00:02:14.759 --> 00:02:17.919 news was there's an article that came out like literally 43 00:02:17.960 --> 00:02:20.400 like maybe an hour ago, two hours ago, talking about 44 00:02:20.400 --> 00:02:23.879 that the US has been supplying arms to the Iranian 45 00:02:23.960 --> 00:02:28.840 Kurds since last year and with it supposedly like a 46 00:02:28.919 --> 00:02:31.319 ground thing is supposed to start within the next couple 47 00:02:31.319 --> 00:02:34.919 of days. They asked Israel and the US if they 48 00:02:34.960 --> 00:02:39.840 would provide, you know, fire support. There's no word on 49 00:02:39.879 --> 00:02:43.680 whether we agree to that. So yeah, a lot's happening. 50 00:02:43.680 --> 00:02:46.159 And I'm sure I missed that. I mean, I'm sure 51 00:02:46.199 --> 00:02:50.599 you guys all saw like Rubio and Pete hag Seth's 52 00:02:51.919 --> 00:02:56.879 press conference. I mean, Marco Rubio just basically let the 53 00:02:56.919 --> 00:02:59.360 cat out of the back, saying that we knew Israel 54 00:02:59.400 --> 00:03:00.800 was going to hit them, so and we knew that 55 00:03:00.800 --> 00:03:02.319 they were going to attack our base, so we just 56 00:03:02.400 --> 00:03:07.759 hit them too. It's like, I don't I'm not a 57 00:03:07.800 --> 00:03:12.039 conspiracy theorist, but Israel runs our shit. Let's be honest. Okay, guys, 58 00:03:12.080 --> 00:03:12.560 what do you have. 59 00:03:14.080 --> 00:03:16.360 Well, I'll say that today when they're meeting with Martz Trump, 60 00:03:16.719 --> 00:03:19.680 you know, he fixed that. He mentioned that he had 61 00:03:19.680 --> 00:03:21.879 a feeling that Arom would attack the US and that's 62 00:03:21.879 --> 00:03:25.080 why it wasn't because of Israel telling Rubio anything. 63 00:03:25.360 --> 00:03:27.120 He had a feeling like what he read like the 64 00:03:27.159 --> 00:03:30.400 tea leaves he went to a psychic or if they was, 65 00:03:30.560 --> 00:03:33.719 if there was real intelligence about that happening, they would 66 00:03:33.759 --> 00:03:35.879 be fucking leaking it from a week before. 67 00:03:35.759 --> 00:03:38.439 The I mean, the thing is, like the lies they're 68 00:03:38.439 --> 00:03:41.080 telling us aren't really meant to be believed, And it's 69 00:03:41.199 --> 00:03:45.080 just this interesting sort of separation with reality that twenty 70 00:03:45.159 --> 00:03:47.599 years ago they had to lie to us about WMDs, 71 00:03:47.919 --> 00:03:50.960 about you know, fighting for freedom, all these sorts of things, 72 00:03:51.319 --> 00:03:54.080 and today they don't have to do that anymore. They 73 00:03:54.159 --> 00:03:58.039 just have to produce social media content and enough of 74 00:03:58.080 --> 00:04:01.639 Congress and enough of the population of the United States. 75 00:04:01.719 --> 00:04:04.199 I mean, even though this has very low approval, there's 76 00:04:04.240 --> 00:04:06.840 no real anti war movement in this country. 77 00:04:07.159 --> 00:04:09.159 There hasn't been since like maybe the seventies. 78 00:04:10.280 --> 00:04:13.960 So I mean it's interesting that like they don't really 79 00:04:14.000 --> 00:04:16.600 have to make the case, and Congress, you know, some 80 00:04:17.040 --> 00:04:20.720 of them have said belatedly, you have to make the case, 81 00:04:20.959 --> 00:04:23.680 but he doesn't really have to if he doesn't want to, 82 00:04:23.720 --> 00:04:28.199 it doesn't seem so I'm not really sure what we're 83 00:04:28.240 --> 00:04:30.439 doing here, But I mean, it's scary times in that regard. 84 00:04:30.639 --> 00:04:32.920 It feels like a lot of the safeguards are off. 85 00:04:34.279 --> 00:04:36.319 I'm concerned about the Americans that are in the Middle East, 86 00:04:36.360 --> 00:04:39.800 like civilians, because a lot of this kind of scattershot 87 00:04:40.000 --> 00:04:42.959 announcement over social media. The State Department's been doing that too, 88 00:04:43.000 --> 00:04:45.720 and they haven't been doing very good job coordinating evacuations 89 00:04:45.720 --> 00:04:49.120 with people. And actually Rubio just pleaded this afternoon with 90 00:04:49.199 --> 00:04:53.720 media organizations to help amplify the State Department's messaging about 91 00:04:53.920 --> 00:04:56.040 the evacuation plans, because it seems like the State Department 92 00:04:56.040 --> 00:04:58.800 no longer has the ability on its own like it 93 00:04:58.959 --> 00:05:02.000 used to municate to people in country, because it must 94 00:05:02.000 --> 00:05:03.800 have been dismantled. I assume. 95 00:05:05.360 --> 00:05:11.480 One of the he was he one of the embassy's 96 00:05:12.000 --> 00:05:14.399 put out something that said, hey, don't come here, we 97 00:05:14.439 --> 00:05:15.079 can't help you. 98 00:05:15.439 --> 00:05:19.040 Yeah think no, I'm Jerusalem. 99 00:05:19.360 --> 00:05:22.199 Yeah, that doesn't invoke much confidence. 100 00:05:22.399 --> 00:05:24.199 And he said, like, we're not going to help anybody 101 00:05:24.199 --> 00:05:25.680 get out, like if you want to jump on a 102 00:05:25.680 --> 00:05:27.839 bus and head to fucking Egypt, Like that's what we 103 00:05:27.879 --> 00:05:30.480 said to people, which is fucking insane. 104 00:05:31.079 --> 00:05:33.079 Yeah. I remember in two thousand and eight in Lebanon, 105 00:05:33.120 --> 00:05:35.120 we had the conflict there and we were doing a 106 00:05:35.199 --> 00:05:42.079 neo with civilian votes. Yep, what's neo sorry, combatant evacuation. 107 00:05:42.360 --> 00:05:44.879 Yeah, uh, I mean, I don't know where you guys 108 00:05:44.920 --> 00:05:47.160 want to take this. I mean the messaging is absolutely 109 00:05:47.480 --> 00:05:50.160 absolutely pissed poor. I think Trump came out or sent 110 00:05:50.560 --> 00:05:53.600 since you sent me this, Jonathan, right where Trump said 111 00:05:53.600 --> 00:05:56.480 something sent something over to like the Congress in terms 112 00:05:56.519 --> 00:06:00.480 of like you know what they're what there's what the 113 00:06:00.519 --> 00:06:03.399 aims are. And number one on the list is ballistic missiles, 114 00:06:03.439 --> 00:06:06.319 which outside of our bases that are in the area, 115 00:06:06.439 --> 00:06:09.800 have no threat to the United States, continental United States 116 00:06:10.360 --> 00:06:14.959 and Alaska. They definitely can't hit. And the second, the third, 117 00:06:14.959 --> 00:06:17.000 I think the fourth on the list was a nuclear weapon, 118 00:06:17.160 --> 00:06:22.079 which by all accounts, they were not continuing their progress 119 00:06:22.079 --> 00:06:25.639 on building a nuclear weapon. Rumor is that the negotiations 120 00:06:25.680 --> 00:06:29.079 were at the point where Iran was offering to give 121 00:06:29.160 --> 00:06:32.519 up all their sixty percent uranium to the United States 122 00:06:32.560 --> 00:06:35.079 to bring it to us, let us like refine it 123 00:06:35.120 --> 00:06:37.879 back down, and they would only refine up to one 124 00:06:37.920 --> 00:06:40.519 point five No sunset clauses either that we're in the 125 00:06:40.600 --> 00:06:45.040 JCPOA number one and we still fucking bomb them over 126 00:06:45.079 --> 00:06:48.600 the weekend as well. Nanna, who was charping everywhere on 127 00:06:48.839 --> 00:06:52.879 Israeli media, saying how the negotiations were essentially a ruse 128 00:06:53.120 --> 00:06:57.639 to get our you know, get the one aircraft carry 129 00:06:57.639 --> 00:07:01.000 and the Mediterranean and stuff like that, and get things 130 00:07:01.040 --> 00:07:03.560 in position and move whatever that we had to move. 131 00:07:04.279 --> 00:07:07.120 So it's like, were we down for the negotiations? Was 132 00:07:07.160 --> 00:07:09.279 it ever a fucking think for them, like to try 133 00:07:09.279 --> 00:07:13.439 and denuclearize your on, Like they're just fucking playing us, 134 00:07:13.519 --> 00:07:14.720 And that's a fact. 135 00:07:14.879 --> 00:07:18.000 Like I'll jump in there on the missiles actually, So 136 00:07:18.079 --> 00:07:21.000 I was talking to somebody about this today. So before 137 00:07:21.000 --> 00:07:23.079 the conflict started, there was an estimation of between fifteen 138 00:07:23.160 --> 00:07:26.160 hundred and three thousand ballistic missiles of any range whatsoever, 139 00:07:26.199 --> 00:07:29.439 including short range, medium range, long range, and they're firing 140 00:07:29.480 --> 00:07:31.879 about a rate of twenty five per hour if you 141 00:07:31.920 --> 00:07:33.480 do the math on that. If it's a sustained rate 142 00:07:33.519 --> 00:07:36.399 twenty five per hour since Saturday morning, that's five days 143 00:07:36.519 --> 00:07:40.839 of missiles in their entire arsenal of every range. Some 144 00:07:40.920 --> 00:07:42.600 of those are going to fail, some of those are 145 00:07:42.600 --> 00:07:44.959 not in good condition, some of those are not operationally ready. 146 00:07:45.319 --> 00:07:47.800 They have eighty thousand drones. They can produce up to 147 00:07:47.800 --> 00:07:50.240 three hundred drons per month if we haven't destroyed their 148 00:07:50.360 --> 00:07:53.720 drone production facilities, which is kind of a concern more 149 00:07:53.759 --> 00:07:56.079 I think than the ballistic missiles. Especially, it's a lot 150 00:07:56.079 --> 00:07:59.199 easier to destroy a transporter, erector launcher or a missile 151 00:07:59.360 --> 00:08:01.480 a fixed missile site than it is to destroy, you know, 152 00:08:01.560 --> 00:08:04.319 drones that are very tiny that it can actually penetrate 153 00:08:04.360 --> 00:08:08.279 through airspace. But if that's the number one reason that 154 00:08:08.319 --> 00:08:12.079 this conflict is going on, that's a very finite military 155 00:08:12.120 --> 00:08:15.720 objective that could easily be communicated to the world about hey, 156 00:08:15.839 --> 00:08:18.839 we're going to destroy these facilities, this number of facilities 157 00:08:19.360 --> 00:08:21.600 without and it doesn't really reveal anything. I remember during 158 00:08:21.639 --> 00:08:25.000 the except speech, she was, you know, very cagey about 159 00:08:25.040 --> 00:08:27.319 saying anything at all, and even shot down that. I 160 00:08:27.360 --> 00:08:29.519 think it was an NBC reporter that asked him, you know, 161 00:08:29.519 --> 00:08:31.399 what's the military objective? And he kind of got upset 162 00:08:31.439 --> 00:08:33.440 to her for asking that question. He said it was 163 00:08:33.480 --> 00:08:35.360 like a legacy media ploy to ask this type of 164 00:08:35.440 --> 00:08:38.039 question to like in formn the American public about the injectives. 165 00:08:38.440 --> 00:08:41.639 I'm surprised Seth didn't say that having strategic goals is 166 00:08:41.679 --> 00:08:42.360 gay and woke. 167 00:08:43.360 --> 00:08:46.080 Right. Yeah, Well, he did say that there's no need 168 00:08:46.080 --> 00:08:47.399 for rules of engagement anymore. 169 00:08:47.759 --> 00:08:51.399 Yeah, yeah, stupid rules of engagement and politically correct wars. 170 00:08:52.000 --> 00:08:54.399 But he also called the last twenty years of conflict 171 00:08:54.480 --> 00:08:56.919 dumb wars, which medi I mean that kind of offends the 172 00:08:56.960 --> 00:08:59.759 nearly four thousand service members that died fighting in those wars. 173 00:09:01.360 --> 00:09:03.120 Wasn't he didn't he serve in those wars too? 174 00:09:03.639 --> 00:09:03.919 Yeah? 175 00:09:04.720 --> 00:09:08.600 Yeah, like and a lot of this, I mean, part 176 00:09:08.639 --> 00:09:12.840 of it like to put a thumb on the veteran community, 177 00:09:13.039 --> 00:09:14.559 you know, those of us who did serve in the 178 00:09:14.759 --> 00:09:17.120 War on Terror years. And I know there's a huge 179 00:09:17.120 --> 00:09:20.519 diversity of views out there amongst veterans. It's not monolithic, 180 00:09:21.240 --> 00:09:24.559 but I do notice a lot of them supporting this 181 00:09:24.639 --> 00:09:30.360 campaign as sort of not a pragmatic policy decision, but 182 00:09:30.440 --> 00:09:34.039 as a catharsis for what they experienced throughout the war. 183 00:09:34.919 --> 00:09:37.639 Part of it is, you know that the Iranians legitimately 184 00:09:37.639 --> 00:09:41.919 were targeting American soldiers during the war that happened. And 185 00:09:41.919 --> 00:09:44.000 then part of it, I think, in my opinion, is 186 00:09:44.320 --> 00:09:47.919 that the wars failed and there's an attempt to regain 187 00:09:48.000 --> 00:09:52.960 some dignity and some honor in the aftermath of two 188 00:09:53.000 --> 00:09:57.200 failed conflicts. But I'm not sure that that is enough 189 00:09:57.279 --> 00:10:00.759 in of itself to legitimize or justify fighting a new 190 00:10:00.759 --> 00:10:03.679 war because the last one was dumb. I need a 191 00:10:03.679 --> 00:10:04.960 little bit more to go on than that. 192 00:10:06.960 --> 00:10:08.720 I mean, in the alternative, we could do something kind 193 00:10:08.720 --> 00:10:12.360 of like Kosovo and Bosnia, where we captured and arrested 194 00:10:12.360 --> 00:10:14.559 the top level folks. I mean that's Delta Force did 195 00:10:14.559 --> 00:10:16.879 a lot of that capturing in the nineties. Bring them 196 00:10:16.919 --> 00:10:19.159 to justice internationally, not just for the United States, but 197 00:10:19.159 --> 00:10:21.240 internationally because there were a lot of NATO allies and 198 00:10:21.279 --> 00:10:25.039 Iraqi partners that were killed and maimed from those explosively 199 00:10:25.039 --> 00:10:28.919 foreign penetrators, and instead of bringing them to justice, we're 200 00:10:28.960 --> 00:10:29.879 just dropping bombs. 201 00:10:30.480 --> 00:10:34.679 And yeah on that too. You know the whole concept. 202 00:10:34.720 --> 00:10:36.799 If you're going to do an assassination, right, if you're 203 00:10:36.840 --> 00:10:38.720 going to take out the leadership, we're calling it a 204 00:10:38.799 --> 00:10:43.080 decapitation strike. You know that makes sense if, for instance, 205 00:10:44.200 --> 00:10:47.120 you know the Minister of Foreign Affairs, he's number three 206 00:10:47.360 --> 00:10:49.720 in line. I don't know that in Iran. I'm just 207 00:10:50.000 --> 00:10:53.720 making an example, and you've compromised him. He works for 208 00:10:53.759 --> 00:10:56.519 the CIA, he works for Masad whatever, that it makes 209 00:10:56.559 --> 00:10:59.000 total sense to take out number one and number two 210 00:10:59.200 --> 00:11:01.399 because you're going to move your guy up into the 211 00:11:01.480 --> 00:11:05.039 number one position. But from what our own government has 212 00:11:05.039 --> 00:11:09.240 been telling us, they're blowing away the entire succession plan 213 00:11:09.320 --> 00:11:14.919 that they had in mind. They're killing all of these people. Okay, 214 00:11:15.000 --> 00:11:17.039 I mean, is it killing for the sake of killing. 215 00:11:17.080 --> 00:11:19.480 We're on the record saying we're not doing nation building, 216 00:11:19.519 --> 00:11:20.759 we're not doing these long. 217 00:11:20.559 --> 00:11:22.279 Wars, we're not doing forever wars. 218 00:11:22.360 --> 00:11:26.799 Well, actually Trump did say we can fight forever today, 219 00:11:26.519 --> 00:11:30.559 but it's ostensibly a break with the past, with the 220 00:11:30.600 --> 00:11:36.440 past conflicts. But I just don't see any like cohesive plan. 221 00:11:36.559 --> 00:11:39.120 And I think that's because there is no cohesive plan, 222 00:11:39.279 --> 00:11:43.000 that all of this is just being done off the cuff. 223 00:11:43.039 --> 00:11:45.759 And it feels like there's a tension between General Kane 224 00:11:46.279 --> 00:11:48.879 on the military planning side and then the policy side, 225 00:11:49.080 --> 00:11:51.879 where General Kane seems to have a very deliberate military, 226 00:11:51.919 --> 00:11:54.120 at least at the operational level, maybe not strategic, but 227 00:11:54.200 --> 00:11:56.440 the operational level is it clearly seems to be well 228 00:11:56.480 --> 00:11:58.840 formed from you know, as well formed as it can be, 229 00:11:59.279 --> 00:12:01.480 but there's no connection into that and strategicainst states, and 230 00:12:01.519 --> 00:12:03.759 it seems like there is no desire to have a 231 00:12:03.759 --> 00:12:07.559 strategic against state attached to this operational activity. 232 00:12:08.120 --> 00:12:11.600 And like to get into the ground game because I 233 00:12:11.639 --> 00:12:13.639 do want to get to the Kurds a little bit 234 00:12:14.120 --> 00:12:18.360 since we're on this topic. But again, when you're going 235 00:12:18.399 --> 00:12:20.600 to launch some sort of an air campaign like this, 236 00:12:20.799 --> 00:12:22.879 and by the way, I don't think we've ever transitioned 237 00:12:22.879 --> 00:12:26.120 to country or regime to a democracy with an air 238 00:12:26.159 --> 00:12:29.600 campaign alone. I don't think that's happened since you know, 239 00:12:29.799 --> 00:12:34.879 the last eighty years, if ever. But when you do 240 00:12:35.039 --> 00:12:37.799 something like that, you know it should work in tandem 241 00:12:37.879 --> 00:12:41.200 with an unconventional warfare strategy that you have a shadow 242 00:12:41.279 --> 00:12:44.320 government in waiting that you have built up, and at 243 00:12:44.399 --> 00:12:46.279 least from the people I've spoken to over the years, 244 00:12:46.360 --> 00:12:49.360 we have no shadow government in Iran like that doesn't exist. 245 00:12:50.120 --> 00:12:53.480 There has been operational preparation of the environment. A lot 246 00:12:53.480 --> 00:12:55.960 of that has to do with non assisted recovery routes 247 00:12:56.000 --> 00:12:57.559 that hopefully we never have to use. 248 00:13:00.120 --> 00:13:00.960 But as far as the. 249 00:13:00.919 --> 00:13:03.440 Ground game, I mean, yeah, the news that came out 250 00:13:03.519 --> 00:13:08.679 today about the Kurds in western Iran, it's the PAK 251 00:13:09.039 --> 00:13:11.279 and then there's one other group over there too, one 252 00:13:11.360 --> 00:13:13.320 Kurdish group. The last I knew, it's been a while 253 00:13:13.360 --> 00:13:15.279 since I've looked at this, So forgive me if I'm 254 00:13:15.279 --> 00:13:22.000 a little off. It's yeah, yeah, thank you, and the Kurds, 255 00:13:23.279 --> 00:13:25.759 I mean this whole notion of greater Kurdistan, right. 256 00:13:25.840 --> 00:13:27.000 So I was in. 257 00:13:26.759 --> 00:13:31.519 A gun runner's office for the PKK about ten years ago, 258 00:13:32.000 --> 00:13:33.879 and this dude had a map up on the wall, 259 00:13:34.440 --> 00:13:39.799 and that map showed how they perceive Kurdistan and the 260 00:13:39.840 --> 00:13:44.000 boundaries of Kurdistan for them went from the Persian Gulf 261 00:13:44.600 --> 00:13:49.559 on the Persian side in western Iran, up the side 262 00:13:49.600 --> 00:13:54.080 of the Persian Gulf into the area of northern Iraq 263 00:13:54.200 --> 00:13:58.480 that is currently Kurdistan, which is currently Kurdish held, into 264 00:13:59.679 --> 00:14:03.600 north East Syria, the area that became called Verjava, and 265 00:14:03.799 --> 00:14:08.919 up into Turkey, southern Turkey connecting to the Mediterranean. Now, 266 00:14:08.919 --> 00:14:12.240 that is a huge swath of land connecting the Persian 267 00:14:12.279 --> 00:14:15.639 Gulf and the Mediterranean that they perceive, as you know, 268 00:14:15.679 --> 00:14:19.159 their homeland that they would like to turn into a nation, 269 00:14:19.360 --> 00:14:21.559 or at least some factions would like to turn that 270 00:14:21.799 --> 00:14:27.480 into a cohesive Kurdish country, even though even Abdellah Ojalon 271 00:14:27.600 --> 00:14:29.879 has kind of backed away from that in so many 272 00:14:29.879 --> 00:14:33.519 ways and looked at other alternative forms of government rather 273 00:14:33.559 --> 00:14:37.600 than creating a Kurdish nation state. And I don't know 274 00:14:37.639 --> 00:14:40.799 what you guys have been heard or may have read about. 275 00:14:41.360 --> 00:14:44.200 I do know that the CIA and Masad have both 276 00:14:44.240 --> 00:14:46.320 been playing over there. I mean all the way back 277 00:14:46.360 --> 00:14:49.120 to the nineteen eighties. So it's not really a surprise 278 00:14:49.279 --> 00:14:54.159 that these guys have gotten weapons shipments. But how you know, 279 00:14:54.559 --> 00:14:57.399 John or Jason, I mean, how would you assess their 280 00:14:57.440 --> 00:15:00.799 fighting capability on the ground, I mean, can they constitute 281 00:15:01.240 --> 00:15:03.759 a credible threat to the Iranian regime. 282 00:15:05.039 --> 00:15:07.600 So this goes back to nineteen forty six when Mahabad, 283 00:15:07.639 --> 00:15:09.519 which is the provincial area where a lot of these 284 00:15:09.559 --> 00:15:12.120 Pijack guys are coming from, in Lake Urmia, which is 285 00:15:12.159 --> 00:15:16.000 the major water feature there, they had a separatist revolt 286 00:15:16.080 --> 00:15:19.200 against the Shah at that time. They survived for two 287 00:15:19.279 --> 00:15:23.279 years as an independent state under that conflict in nineteen 288 00:15:23.279 --> 00:15:25.120 forty six. It's very interesting thing to read about. Encourage 289 00:15:25.120 --> 00:15:27.360 listeners to REBA. It's something that helps you understand the 290 00:15:27.399 --> 00:15:29.919 Kurds a lot more. The Kurds that fought that rebellion 291 00:15:29.960 --> 00:15:32.720 back then were the Barzani family and one other family. 292 00:15:33.279 --> 00:15:35.559 They were the end of their two year conflict in 293 00:15:35.559 --> 00:15:39.279 Iran where they had independence ended when the Brits helped 294 00:15:39.840 --> 00:15:42.039 raise a shah push them west out of the country 295 00:15:42.080 --> 00:15:45.240 into northern Iraq. And that's where the current Barzani family 296 00:15:45.279 --> 00:15:48.519 came from. And that family has been obviously our close 297 00:15:48.559 --> 00:15:52.720 contact for many conflicts, as you mentioned, and those are 298 00:15:52.759 --> 00:15:56.200 the combat tested Shmiriga that everybody knows. The ones inside 299 00:15:56.240 --> 00:16:00.159 Iran never got that combat exposure, and they had and 300 00:16:00.200 --> 00:16:03.200 had an opportunity to get real good tactical training that 301 00:16:03.240 --> 00:16:05.600 they would need to actually work together in a coordinated way. 302 00:16:06.159 --> 00:16:10.399 And the other problem is Pjack that the section of 303 00:16:10.399 --> 00:16:12.679 the Curds that's in western Iran so large, there's a 304 00:16:12.679 --> 00:16:14.840 couple of different Kurdish groups like Congred Jail for example, 305 00:16:14.840 --> 00:16:17.000 and some others. With this one p Jack, which would 306 00:16:17.000 --> 00:16:19.600 be leading the charge is an arch enemy of Turkey, 307 00:16:20.799 --> 00:16:23.399 and Iran has actually allowed Turkey to do air strikes 308 00:16:23.440 --> 00:16:26.519 inside of Iran back in twenty sixteen seventeen to push 309 00:16:26.600 --> 00:16:31.080 back PJACK fighters away from Turkey's border. So it would 310 00:16:31.080 --> 00:16:34.399 be very hard to imagine that a NATO ally Turkey 311 00:16:34.759 --> 00:16:39.159 would allow Pijack to have any power in Iran. And 312 00:16:39.639 --> 00:16:41.399 I don't know if you've seen the media. But Netanyahu 313 00:16:41.480 --> 00:16:44.639 has already said that Turkey is a potential enemy of 314 00:16:45.320 --> 00:16:48.200 Israel soon, so that might even be another problem, like 315 00:16:48.200 --> 00:16:50.200 another movement on the chess board of Okay, where does 316 00:16:50.240 --> 00:16:52.759 the threat move around? Now that the Curds are coming 317 00:16:52.759 --> 00:16:54.720 into the picture, Turkey is getting upset? What does that 318 00:16:54.759 --> 00:16:57.720 mean for Israel? Pushing north and they just occupy southern Lebanon, 319 00:16:57.879 --> 00:17:00.440 They're probably going to occupy southwest Syria. So I'm looking 320 00:17:00.480 --> 00:17:02.879 like bigger picture at the region of what does this 321 00:17:02.919 --> 00:17:06.359 mean if Pijack gets these weapons. It sounds so simple 322 00:17:06.359 --> 00:17:09.079 that give these cards these weapons that fight, but there 323 00:17:09.079 --> 00:17:13.680 are major ramifications regionally, especially for Turkey if the Pijack 324 00:17:13.839 --> 00:17:16.160 gets these weapons. And I don't think we talked about 325 00:17:16.160 --> 00:17:18.480 the previous episode. I don't think of the National Security 326 00:17:18.480 --> 00:17:21.640 Council that there is this level of understanding of which 327 00:17:21.720 --> 00:17:25.160 Kurds are which and what happens is this group of 328 00:17:25.240 --> 00:17:27.079 Kurds something and there's another group of Kurds that has 329 00:17:27.200 --> 00:17:31.079 total opposite political view like in Rojava. There's even two 330 00:17:31.079 --> 00:17:33.960 different ways of looking at government in Rojava. One of 331 00:17:33.960 --> 00:17:36.960 those is that completely decentralized almost like socialist system and 332 00:17:37.000 --> 00:17:39.720 the other is kind of like a federalized state system, 333 00:17:40.240 --> 00:17:43.759 even in Java, which is in Syria, and the Pijack 334 00:17:43.799 --> 00:17:45.880 are not the leading Kurds are not the only Kurds 335 00:17:45.920 --> 00:17:49.039 in Western Duran. You know, there are Sunny Kurds, there's 336 00:17:49.000 --> 00:17:52.680 Shia Kurds. There are other Kurds or Animists, you know, 337 00:17:52.720 --> 00:17:54.680 and the religion is very important for them because, especially 338 00:17:54.680 --> 00:17:56.680 with the way the terrain works, when you're isolated in 339 00:17:56.720 --> 00:17:59.680 a certain area, your religion and your culture and your 340 00:17:59.759 --> 00:18:02.400 lang whould become your identity. And you can't just say 341 00:18:02.400 --> 00:18:04.400 that all these guys are Kurds and here's some weapons, 342 00:18:04.480 --> 00:18:07.440 because they might instead of going against the far enemy 343 00:18:07.480 --> 00:18:10.759 in Tehran, there's a closer enemy across the mountain. 344 00:18:11.240 --> 00:18:17.640 You know, How does the relationship between the United States 345 00:18:17.680 --> 00:18:21.240 and Turkey hash out in a time where, you know, ostensibly, 346 00:18:21.279 --> 00:18:24.000 if we're going to supply weapons and you know, war 347 00:18:24.079 --> 00:18:28.200 material to p Jack when the United States seems that 348 00:18:28.279 --> 00:18:29.279 our policy. 349 00:18:28.960 --> 00:18:31.279 Right now is that we don't really care about NATO anymore. 350 00:18:32.200 --> 00:18:35.200 That's a great point. Actually, today, Trump said, in response 351 00:18:35.240 --> 00:18:37.839 to Spain, So Spain doesn't want the US using Cadiz 352 00:18:38.079 --> 00:18:40.240 or Rota, and so Trump said, well, we can just 353 00:18:40.279 --> 00:18:42.440 land our aircraft there anyway and nobody can stop us, 354 00:18:42.640 --> 00:18:45.880 which is a very concerning thing to hear from about 355 00:18:45.920 --> 00:18:48.680 Spain also threatening to cut off trade with Spain, and 356 00:18:48.759 --> 00:18:51.039 the EU quickly shot back and said Spain doesn't own 357 00:18:51.039 --> 00:18:53.079 its own trade outside of the EU. The EU determines 358 00:18:53.119 --> 00:18:55.680 trade for the EU, et cetera. So that will be 359 00:18:55.720 --> 00:18:57.880 an interesting development. And that's not even a far away 360 00:18:58.000 --> 00:19:01.880 NATO partner, that's a very close NATO and EU partner. 361 00:19:01.759 --> 00:19:06.759 Right, Yeah, I sorry, Jack, go ahead. 362 00:19:06.839 --> 00:19:06.960 Oh. 363 00:19:07.000 --> 00:19:08.759 I was just going to point out, like in two 364 00:19:08.759 --> 00:19:11.319 thousand and three, we had this real big problem with 365 00:19:11.359 --> 00:19:15.000 the Turks and getting ten Special Forces Group across the border. 366 00:19:15.599 --> 00:19:17.200 They ended up having to go a lot of them 367 00:19:17.200 --> 00:19:20.839 through Romania, and a few guys got across the border 368 00:19:20.880 --> 00:19:22.240 with like some of their gear. 369 00:19:22.640 --> 00:19:25.119 But I mean, the Turks really made. 370 00:19:24.920 --> 00:19:28.440 It difficult on the SF guys to do that for 371 00:19:28.519 --> 00:19:30.279 the same reason that they didn't want us working with 372 00:19:30.319 --> 00:19:32.279 the Kurds, they didn't want us supporting the Kurds. 373 00:19:33.519 --> 00:19:35.599 Yeah, that happened in twenty sixteen. Part of my team 374 00:19:35.839 --> 00:19:38.920 was in northern Syria and they got photographed wearing WHITEPG 375 00:19:39.119 --> 00:19:41.799 patches and that was kind of a little bit after 376 00:19:41.839 --> 00:19:43.480 the time we were saying there was no forces in 377 00:19:43.519 --> 00:19:45.799 Syria and all that. So not only are they seeing 378 00:19:45.799 --> 00:19:48.119 forces in Syria, they're also seeing the WHITEPG patch on 379 00:19:48.160 --> 00:19:51.119 the guy's shoulder, which is you know, Turkey would say 380 00:19:51.160 --> 00:19:52.039 it's a paycock cup. 381 00:19:52.400 --> 00:19:54.720 Yeah, there was really weird stuff that happened back in 382 00:19:54.720 --> 00:19:58.400 those days, like when the Turks had their talk, you know, 383 00:19:58.480 --> 00:20:01.400 in Turkey, and you'd have like a American Special Forces 384 00:20:01.400 --> 00:20:04.880 and Turkish special Forces, and like, we're working with Turkey 385 00:20:05.279 --> 00:20:08.279 to attack ISIS in Syria, but we're also working with 386 00:20:08.319 --> 00:20:10.880 the Curds to attack ISIS in Syria. But we don't 387 00:20:10.880 --> 00:20:13.039 want the Turks to know that we're working with the Curds, 388 00:20:13.039 --> 00:20:14.519 and we all kind of have to pretend that we 389 00:20:14.519 --> 00:20:17.240 don't know what's going on here, like war mikes for 390 00:20:17.279 --> 00:20:18.400 strange bedfellows. 391 00:20:18.400 --> 00:20:20.119 As you know, all of you guys know, I. 392 00:20:20.039 --> 00:20:24.799 Have a question, what happens if Israel were to attack Turkey, 393 00:20:25.000 --> 00:20:29.640 a NATO country, What happens? What does the United States do? 394 00:20:29.759 --> 00:20:30.559 What does NATO do? 395 00:20:31.920 --> 00:20:33.960 Well? Israel is a major non NATO ally, so they're 396 00:20:34.000 --> 00:20:39.240 pretty close. They have nuclear weapons. Turkey has our nuclear weapons, 397 00:20:39.599 --> 00:20:41.880 but that doesn't mean Turkey can use them. And I 398 00:20:41.920 --> 00:20:44.240 think that that would kind of answer your question right there. 399 00:20:44.519 --> 00:20:45.720 That's how much Turkey could do. 400 00:20:47.519 --> 00:20:49.200 That's good. I mean, you know who this I feel 401 00:20:49.240 --> 00:20:51.519